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Monday is the start to September, and it’s also the start to meteorological fall.
Wait…the fall I learned about starts later in the month?
Astronomical fall is the one we all learned about in school. Its date changes year-to-year. In 2025, it happens on September 22.
This is when the sun’s light is directly over the equator, marking the equinox.
We see a little over 12 hours of daylight on the equinox.
Why use meteorological seasons, then?
Meteorological seasons often denote a sharp cutoff in average temperatures, as you see at the top of this article.
It’s also much simpler and more consistent for data/record-keeping. Instead of changing the date depending on the equinox, we run with the first of September until November 30 for meteorological fall.
How has autumn changed?
Just like the leaves change their colors, the season has changed over the last few decades.
According to Climate Central, fall’s average temperature has risen by three degrees since 1970.
There are also 12 more days with above average temperatures.
While this can further delay foliage, it can also have lingering effects on things like allergies, pests and cost to cool your home.
What does this meteorological fall look like?
Long-range forecasting lacks the skill of a day-to-day forecast, but we can look at trends.
The trend, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, seems to favor a ridge over the Western U.S. with several stalled fronts near the Gulf Coast. This leads to above average warmth being more likely in the Western U.S.
This also favors that part of the country with drier-than-average weather. The wetter-than-average weather would be confined to the Southeastern U.S.
Our summer was full of extremes. July 2025 was the second-hottest month on record in Raleigh. Meanwhile, August 2025 was the sixth-coolest August on record and the tenth-wettest.
Have questions about the weather and how it works?
Send me an email with the subject line ‘Ask the Meteorologist:’ to cmichaels@wral.com.
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