What else is brewing outside of Hurricane Erin?

Hurricane Erin, while not making landfall on the East Coast, is already causing issues.

Erin causes rip current rescues, overwash while hundreds of miles offshore.

There are other storms in the Atlantic Basin that we haven’t gotten to touch upon in detail to this point, so let’s do that here.

Two other waves to track in the Atlantic

Close to the Lesser Antilles, there is a system with a 60% chance of development within the next week.

South of Africa’s Cape Verde Islands, there is a system with a 40% chance of development.

This is not abnormal. We’re entering the peak of hurricane season. We’ll get into that more below.

a) The 60% chance blob

The orange blob that denotes a 60% chance of development is not a concern for us. There are a few reasons for that.

1. Hurricane Erin has been so strong and so large, that it is upwelling cooler water.
2. Harsh upper level winds and a cold front at the surface will prevent this storm from ever getting close to our area.

b) The 40% chance blob

The yellow blob that denotes a 40% chance of development is way out there. Interestingly enough, however, the National Hurricane Center has labeled it an “Invest.” This means that spaghetti models can show the potential path and uncertainty of a storm.

I took those models ten days out. While you see a trajectory farther south than that of Erin, you also see how much uncertainty there is in the path.

If anything from that part of the world were to reach the U.S., it would take anywhere from 10-14 days.

Let’s not go putting the cart before the horse with details that are far from known at this point.

Entering the peak of hurricane season

If you’ve lived in a tropical climate long enough, you know that this is far from abnormal.

Most storms that we see in the Atlantic Basin happen between about August 20 and October 10. The climatalogical peak is September 10.

In the month of August, you most typically see hurricanes forming in the Central Atlantic and off the East Coast.

Our forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is for 13 to 15 named storms. We’ve only made it through five, so expect more development throughout the next several weeks.

If our forecast verifies, we’d get through these names: Melissa, Nestor and Olga.

Have questions about the weather and how it works?

Send me an email with the subject line ‘Ask the Meteorologist:’ to cmichaels@wral.com.