Weekly Roundup: Anatomy of a Cave and a $2,000 Check?

It’s the end of the week that marked the end of a record-breaking government shutdown. Federal workers went back to their jobs yesterday.

Here’s a look at what we covered this week.

Olivier scrutinized President Donald Trump’s pledge of a $2,000 “dividend” for most Americans from the revenues his import duties have generated.

“We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion,” he said on social media. “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

We … have some questions.

“Analysts say the payout could total $300 billion or more,” Olivier wrote. “The Treasury Department’s final fiscal year 2025 report says the government collected $195 billion from all customs duties currently in effect. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates Trump’s tariffs could generate an average of $260 billion annually through 2035.”

The biggest news of the week was the end of the government shutdown, so Olivier detailed some key features of the deal, including Democrats caving on their primary ask.

“Democrats’ main goal in rejecting Republican spending legislation and shutting down the government had been to force the GOP to negotiate over the renewal of Obamacare subsidies that are due to expire, which would send premiums rocketing skyward for millions of Americans,” Olivier wrote. “What Democrats settled for instead was a promise of a Senate vote on renewing the subsidies.”

Other notable bits include the resumption of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and bringing back air traffic controllers who were furloughed during the shutdown.

But, as always, don’t get too comfortable. The deal only funds the government into January.

Artificial intelligence hasn’t caused vast economy-wide negative effects on jobs… yet.

That’s according to a recent study we examined here from the Budget Lab at Yale University.

“Overall, our metrics indicate that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy,” the report says.

AI doomer Olivier noted, however, that “just because the report did not find sweeping effects from AI to date, that doesn’t mean that AI won’t eventually bring about those kinds of changes.”

The report acknowledges that “it is too soon to tell how disruptive the technology will be to jobs.”

In Olivier’s regional rundown, he detailed the latest development in the GOP’s efforts to push for redistricting in multiple states in an effort to keep their majority in the House. In Utah, a federal judge ruled this week that an electoral map drawn up by legislators to strengthen the GOP hold unfairly favored Republicans.

Meanwhile, a new study on the impact of a cell phone ban at a large urban district in Florida found average test scores rose by 1.1 percentiles in schools with previously high student cell phone usage in 2024-25, the year after a cell phone ban took effect.

Lastly, the Colorado Sun reported this week that the Centennial State’s efforts to grow its wolf population are struggling, hampered by federal regulations and the death of a 10th reintroduced wolf.