Ukraine’s advances likely show “wider degradation” of Russian forces: ISW

Recent Ukrainian advances suggest that Russia is experiencing a “wider degradation” of its military after nearly 18 months of war, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said in a report published on Thursday that recent Russian efforts to hold control over small Ukrainian settlements like Robotyne and Urozhaine have required “significant effort, resources, and personnel” that are in short supply for Russia.

Ukraine announced on Wednesday that it had recaptured Urozhaine, a tiny village in southeastern Donetsk, while Kyiv’s forces have also recently been spotted marching toward the settlement of Robotyne, which is in southern Zaporizhzhia.

ISW’s report suggests that Ukrainian forces likely needed to “thoroughly degrade” their Russian counterparts to advance, while predicting that Moscow’s military will have difficulty defending territory in the future due to a lack of available reinforcements exposing weak lines of defense where reserves are not deployed.

“Russian forces lack significant operational reserves, and the intense Russian effort to hold these settlements instead of withdrawing their forces means that Ukrainian forces have likely had to thoroughly degrade Russian units before advancing,” the report states.

“The lack of Russian operational reserves means that Russian forces will have to reinforce certain areas of the front at the expense of others, likely weakening Russian defensive lines in aggregate and offering Ukrainian forces opportunities for exploitation,” it continues.

Newsweek reached out for comment to the Russian Ministry of Defense via email on Thursday night.

The ISW report goes on to say that recent comments suggesting “waning confidence” from Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the pro-Russia “Vostok” battalion in Donetsk, indicates that Russia “is already making difficult choices about what sectors to prioritize as Ukrainian forces advance.”

Earlier this week, Khodakovsky denounced the lack of Russian reinforcements while announcing in a Telegram post that his forces had suffered losses attempting to defend Urozhaine. Videos shared online purportedly show Ukrainian forces inflicting severe casualties on Russian fighters fleeing the area.

Khodakovsky bemoaned that “no new artillery battalions were deployed” to the region and that battles were being fought with existing “poor forces,” while reinforcements that were supposed to arrive “any day” never came.

“Khodakovsky’s apparent waning confidence in the Russian defense in southern Ukraine may indicate that he believes that recent advances have made a Ukrainian breakthrough more likely,” ISW said.

The think tank theorized that Russian forces would “likely have to withdraw to secondary prepared defensive positions without significant support” if Kyiv breaks thorough defense lines, while adding that “further degradation” of troops would create “opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant.”

This week’s liberation of Urozhaine was a notable victory in what has otherwise been a slow-moving counteroffensive by Ukraine, especially when compared to the massive gains made during the counteroffensive in the fall. Ukrainian forces had last captured a Russian-occupied settlement, neighboring Staromaiorske, on July 27.