UCL talking points: Matchday 8’s must-see games, Man City’s struggles, more

We’re racing fast towards the end of the UEFA Champions League league phase, and the scramble for positions is really starting to heat up.

Arsenal sit pretty atop the standings with an unblemished record after sailing past Internazionale but below that? That’s where it really gets interesting.

Tottenham Hotspur are in a gravity-defying fifth spot, while Manchester City‘s shock loss to Bodø/Glimt leaves them out of the Top 8. Then there are some big clubs — hello Napoli — in danger of being eliminated entirely.

With just one round of matches left for teams on the bubble to punch their tickets to the knockout phase, read on as ESPN experts Rob Dawson, Sam Tighe, Julien Laurens and Gab Marcotti offer their thoughts on Matchday 7.

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– View the full UEFA Champions League table
– How each team can qualify for 2025-26 Champions League knockouts
– Lindop: If Liverpool want to be successful, all roads lead through Szoboszlai

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Q1. OK, with one game left to advance, which club faces the biggest do-or-die fixture in MD8 considering the table?

Laurens: As we said last year, one of the great things about this new Champions League format with a 36-team league phase is that it should give us a great MD8 every year, with suspense, jeopardy, sexy permutations and a lot at stake. It was the case last year, and it will be the same again next week. And for me, the biggest do-or-die fixture is without a doubt Napoli vs. Chelsea.

Pitting Antonio Conte and the Italian champions against his former club for a place in the knockout playoffs, it would be a humiliation for Scott McTominay & Co. to finish outside of the Top 24. An absolute disgrace. They have 90 minutes to play and three points needed, or they will be the laughingstock of European football. Equally, the Blues will also need something from the game to guarantee a Top 8 finish and avoid the extra two games that they’d have if they were dropped into the playoff round. The Diego Maradona Stadium will be full of tension and pressure, especially for the home side.

Another thing to remember: When the new format of the competition was announced, many said that it would be boring because with 24 teams to go through, all the big clubs would make it. Not sure about that this year…

Tighe: Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle United are sixth and seventh in the table after seven games. They share the fourth-best goal difference in the competition so far (+10) and are effectively sitting pretty. But they play each other on the final matchday, in Paris, and the reality is that the loser will get dumped into the playoffs. If they draw, they’ll probably both slip in — Chelsea, Barcelona, and Manchester City are just some of the teams that could leapfrog them in that situation.

Now, as last season proves, slipping down into that playoff mire isn’t necessarily terminal: PSG did so, beat Brest 10-0 on aggregate and used it as a bounceboard to go on and win the whole thing.

But adding games to the schedule is not a good plan, and for Newcastle in particular, it could prove really damaging to their ability to manage the load.

Marcotti: It’s hardly do-or-die for City, PSG or Newcastle, is it? More like do or play an additional two matches. Boo-hoo. My heart bleeds for you. So, I’m going to choose Jose Mourinho’s Benfica vs. Real Madrid (heck, it may be the last time we get to talk about him in a Champions League contest this season). Mourinho’s side were beaten at Juventus, but it might have been a different story if not for Vangelis Pavlidis‘ slipping when taking his penalty and falling on his backside?

The upshot? They need a bunch of other results to go their way AND they need to win in the Bernabéu. No matter. Mourinho won many times at the Bernabéu before (OK, mostly while managing Real Madrid, but still…) and, against this star-crossed version of Madrid, who’s to say he can’t summon up enough of the old black magic to spring the improbable, if not the impossible?

Dawson: Man City vs. Galatasaray. City will make it to the knockout rounds whatever happens, but they’ll have bad memories of what can happen if you don’t finish in the Top 8. Last season, they were forced into a playoff with Real Madrid and were comfortably dumped out. Pep Guardiola won’t want to risk a repeat.

They should beat Galatasaray at the Etihad, but then they should have beaten Bayer Leverkusen and Bodø/Glimt. Marc Guéhi is likely to come in for his City debut against Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League on Saturday. However, the England defender won’t be eligible to face Galatasaray and with Josko Gvardiol and Rúben Dias still sidelined, it’s likely to mean Guardiola will have to go back to Abdukodir Khusanov and Max Alleyne at center back. It was a nervy time for City against Club Brugge on Matchday 8 last season and it may well be again against Galatasaray.

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Q2. Speaking of Manchester City, they seem to be imploding on multiple fronts, losing ground to Arsenal in the Premier League and taking a weakened side to the Arctic Circle in MD7 where they were comprehensively beaten by Bodø/Glimt. Antoine Semenyo and Guéhi have arrived to reinforce things, but is that enough for Guardiola to work his way out of this jam?

Tighe: It was frankly astonishing to watch Man City cut to ribbons by Bodø/Glimt. They looked like scoring every time they attacked — a well-worn cliché, but on this occasion absolutely true. The surface is artificial and the weather shocking, sure, but the entire club operates on a budget worth about one tenth of Erling Haaland‘s market value alone.

Most concerning of all was the horror performance of Rodri, who was bypassed over and over again in midfield, eventually leading him to commit two yellow-card challenges in the space of a minute. Neither Guéhi or Semenyo can fix that particular area of the pitch, although the former could bring more organisation to a defensive line that currently lacks it, and cannot always rely on what’s in front of them to block the worst of it. Semenyo’s work rate and pressing could also help, but he can’t help in Europe until February at the earliest.

Dawson: Man City aren’t playing well, but Guardiola won’t be panicking just yet. The team is in a difficult moment after poor performances against Manchester United and Bodø/Glimt. They’re damaging defeats for different reasons, but the problems aren’t terminal.

Guardiola has been forced into pairing Khusanov and Alleyne at center back in the absence of Gvardiol and Dias. Alleyne was playing in the Championship as recently as New Year’s Day; to that end, Guéhi solves a big issue and Dias will be back soon. Rodri’s form is troublesome, but Nico González has been much better this season and shouldn’t be too far away from making his return from injury.

Despite losing in Norway, City are still going to reach the knockout rounds of the Champions League, are well-positioned to reach the Carabao Cup final, have a relatively soft FA Cup fourth tie against Salford City and are still just about in the Premier League title race. Yes, it looks bad on paper, but it’s still far too early to write them off.

Laurens: After what we saw against Man United on Saturday, there was no real surprise to see City struggling even more in the grueling Arctic Circle conditions, on a plastic pitch, and against a good team much fresher than them: Bodø/Glimt’s last official game was six weeks ago.

Guardiola is obviously aware of his team’s current issues and there are many, from Rodri’s disastrous form, injuries everywhere, Phil Foden‘s disappearance, Haaland’s worst career form (one goal on penalty in his last eight games in all competitions), and a far too passive press combined with a silly high defensive line. Plus there’s the collective struggle to defend in transition, an aging Bernardo Silva (he was suspended on Tuesday), and a crucial imbalance tactically!

Good luck to Pep in trying to sort out all of those problems. This is as bad a Man City team as we have seen since … October 2024, the last time they endured such a frustrating run of form.

Marcotti: Rob is correct that Pep won’t be panicking (weirdly, panicking rarely helps) and that the situation is still open (yes, they can still win the Quadruple … though I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it). But the issues are evident and, as Juls writes, go beyond the Bodø/Glimt defeat, which was a classic “trap” game.

Guéhi helps because he’s probably better than any central defender on City’s books (except Gvardiol, maybe), but it still means hitting the ground running by moving from a back-three to a back-four in mid-season. That’s not always easy to do, especially in a congested schedule. Semenyo is a live body who does many things well, though I’m not sure he moves the needle straight away. And then there’s the elephant (OK, large Norwegian) in the room and his poor form.

To me the biggest issue is tactical and one of identity. If, as the in-the-knows tell me, former Liverpool assistant coach Pep Lijnders was brought in to help the other Pep turn this into more of a press-oriented side, I think it’s fair to question what they’ve been doing since training camp. A month ago, the Athletic ranked Premier League teams by PPDA (passes per defensive action) which is a measure of pressing intensity. City were 16th, sandwiched between Everton and Burnley. It feels to me they haven’t fully embraced the pressing identity but also aren’t quite ready to go back to being a purely possession side that makes their superior talent win games. That’s something Guardiola needs to sort out in training.

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Q3. Barça keep leaking goals — six in their last four games, including two bad concessions at Slavia Prague — while Madrid’s fans continued to voice their displeasure at Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham despite the big win over AS Monaco. Which Spanish team is best-placed to win it or make the deepest run?

Marcotti: It may seem counterintuitive since Barcelona came within a whisker of reaching the final last season and Real Madrid have replaced their manager and are a bit of a dumpster fire in terms of morale, but I’m picking Madrid here. And, no, it’s not because of the big win over Monaco (who came into the game having lost seven of their last eight). Rather because they have the key ingredients for Champions League success. An outstanding goalkeeper in Thibaut Courtois, an outstanding goalscorer in Kylian Mbappé and, of course, the weight of history.

Experience matters and so does having guys who’ve been there and done that. There’s not much separating the two, to be honest. But I can’t get past Barcelona’s defensive foibles. In past games it was the high line or just randomly losing opponents in the box (like at the weekend against Real Sociedad) this time, in the 4-2 win over Slavia, it was set pieces. Yes, Joan García can stand on his head, and, yes, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha can carry you, but as the competition wears on, you can’t just count on scoring three or four after spotting the opposition a couple of goals.

Dawson: It’s always hard to look beyond Real Madrid in the Champions League. Even in a turbulent season you wouldn’t bet against them. The LaLiga title will be decided by consistency. The Champions League is different. More so than in domestic games, European knockout ties are decided by moments. And the one thing Real Madrid have is big players who can create magic in big moments.

It’s not to say that Barcelona don’t have good players — of course they do. But there are tight and tense games in the latter rounds of the Champions League and sometimes you’re left needing a goal out of nothing. Real Madrid have more of that type of player than any other team in Europe, which is perhaps why they’ve had such a successful history in the competition.

Laurens: Barcelona for me. Their attacking powers are so good that they can really beat anyone on their day, whereas I don’t think it’s the case for Real Madrid. With the ball, this Barça team is so much better collectively than the Merengues. Of course, the defensive fragility and the high line make them vulnerable, especially in transitions but I still would not want to face them in the knockout stages. They find more balance going forward as well, especially if they have learnt from their mistakes from last season.

Tighe: I really want to stay true to my preseason Champions League winner pick in Barcelona, making this a 2-2 split between us … but I can’t do it. I’m just too spooked by Pedri‘s hamstrings! He pulled up again on Matchday 7, which is terrible news considering Barça may need to win next week to secure a Top 8 spot.

Watching this team with and without Pedri provides two completely different experiences. With him? they can beat anyone. Without him? They could actually lose to just about anyone. If his fitness was guaranteed, I’d be able to look past the defensive foibles that Gab mentions — but combined? It’s this competition’s old best pal, Real Madrid, who get the nod.

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Q4. Five English teams are in the Top 8, and that could be six by the end of the league phase. Is that a problem for UEFA? Is the Premier League’s dominance here to stay?

Dawson: Based purely on revenues, wage bills and transfer spending, the Champions League table looks the way it should be. The Super League exists, it just goes by a different name. It’s not always followed that Premier League clubs have been able to use their financial might to dominate in Europe. English clubs have won far fewer Champions League titles over the last 15 years than they should have done.

That said, potentially having six Premier League clubs in the Champions League Top 8 isn’t great for the competition. The whole point of the tournament is pitting clubs from different countries against each other. It would be a shame if, for example, it was an all-English lineup in the semifinals. If you want to watch that, you can see something similar right now with Manchester City, Newcastle, Arsenal and Chelsea facing off in two-legged ties to reach the Carabao Cup final.

Marcotti: Let’s leave the broad, over-arching conclusions once the league is over, shall we? Newcastle travel to PSG, who will be highly motivated, Tottenham go to Eintracht Frankfurt, who are a pile of turds right now, but hey, it’s Spurs (and, more seriously they have bigger fish to fry). Man City? I imagine they’ll win at home to Galatasaray and be just fine, but who knows? And before we get carried away, let’s also remind ourselves that three of the six Premier League teams (Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City) have as many points as Sporting CP and Atalanta, shall we?

But yeah, we don’t need the Champions League table to tell us that the Premier League is the best league in the world. And while it may seem as if it’s a poor season domestically because everybody is so far behind Arsenal in the English table, it could also be down to such a thing as strength in depth. As Rob points out, when you have more resources and more money than most and when you play tough, well-prepared (and well-resourced) opponents every week it will make you better.

Laurens: Surely nobody is surprised by this! Even if when the Premier League was having an average season, English clubs are still by far the best and strongest clubs in Europe. All six of them in the Top 8 really, if Manchester City were not all over the place. As exciting as MD8 will be next week, this has not a good Champions League campaign so far either. The level has not been great, which has also helped the English clubs to assert even more their domination. How far could they go? Could we have all six in the last 16? What about six out of eight in the quarterfinals if they avoid each other in the previous round? Four in four in the semis? An all-English final? Let’s see how dominant they can and will be.

Tighe: Clearly, as the guys point out, a league’s strength is typically linked to its spending power, and the Premier League blows everyone else out of the water. Perhaps the only thing that can trip the six English teams up is the fact that their week-to-week is so difficult and so draining (as the level of the 10th- or 15th-placed club is seemingly so high) that it burns them out before season’s end.

It’s well documented that Newcastle struggle to maintain their intensity all the way until May, and of course both Chelsea and Manchester City competed deep into the Club World Cup last summer, potentially paving the way for them to fall flat physically before the campaign ends (are we seeing signs of that already? I suspect the answer is yes).

Even the stacked squad Arsenal have built could conceivably struggle to go all the way in four competitions. Who knows what the next few months has in store?

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And finally, a little look-in at Liverpool. Mohamed Salah has returned to the first-team squad after the Africa Cup of Nations — after his incendiary interview that made us all think he was leaving the club this winter — and the Reds picked up a 3-0 win at Marseille, but is there sufficient cause for celebration? And where does Salah — who had 28 touches in a fairly quiet 90 minutes — fit in this team both this season and beyond?

Marcotti: First of all “made us all think he was leaving the club this winter”? Speak for yourself! It can still happen, the window is open for another 10 days, but it’s funny how those zillionaire Saudi offers seem to be taken for granted, eh? I said at the time I wasn’t convinced he’d leave and, obviously, with Alexander Isak injured, I’m less convinced now.

As mentioned, there are 10 days left in the window, but if Salah’s mind was made up, he wouldn’t have started on Wednesday and Liverpool would be bringing in a replacement. If Salah doesn’t leave, the Reds can’t add anyone to the squad so, simply put, Arne Slot has to make it work. And I think he’ll try. Salah played 90 minutes in a different continent on Sunday and 90 minutes again against Marseille. To me that says Slot will find a way to make it work and, personally, I think this version of 4-box-2 (or whatever you want to call it) can be an effective way of using him (as I’ve argued before). It might not be with Salah starting every game, but he’ll be in the mix.

Dawson: It looks from the outside like an uneasy truce. Salah’s break at AFCON seems to have taken the sting out of the situation, which is good news for Slot in the short-term. Still, it will simmer under the surface for the rest of the season. For whatever reason, Salah isn’t as effective as he was last campaign, which means he’s at risk of being dropped for prolonged periods. It’s especially true while Slot tries to find a formula to bring some consistency back to performances and results.

It certainly feels like the beginning of the end of Salah’s career at Anfield. Slot can only manage the situation as best he can until the summer when Salah can be moved on. Salah isn’t a regular any more so, at times, it’s going to get awkward for the Dutchman, but he has to put the team first.

Tighe: My overriding feeling watching that game was that this is no longer “Salah’s team.” Even during the great Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino era, it was still his; he was still the main man. But now it’s different. All season, Dominik Szoboszlai has been digging this team out of various sized holes, and Hugo Ekitike has consistently impressed with his overall play. All the good moments in this genuinely excellent win at the Vélodrome revolved around the Hungarian. He pulled rank and took the free kick that snuck under the wall and gave Liverpool the lead, and it was his incredible first-time flick that opened up the passage for the third goal.

In the end, we might look back on things and consider it somewhat healthy that the Reds weaned themselves off Salah while he was still in situ — rather than him abruptly departing last summer — but whether it’s worth the drama that’s unfolded in the process, I’m not so sure.

Laurens: I don’t think Salah fits in this team anymore. I was at the Vélodrome on Wednesday, and he may as well not have played. He missed a massive chance, one that he would have never squandered before, by making the wrong decision and he didn’t bring much to the team at all in or out of possession.

In this new Liverpool where control is key with the four midfielders: Florian Wirtz, Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch and Szoboszlai — there is no room for him really. Slot may as well have played Curtis Jones or Cody Gakpo instead of Salah. The Liverpool boss might give him another chance in Premier League against AFC Bournemouth on the weekend but, against a poor Marseille side, we didn’t see enough from the Egyptian to have earned it.