The U.S. government could owe businesses as much as $168 billion if the Supreme Court rules that the Trump administration improperly invoked a federal emergency powers law earlier this year in hitting dozens of countries with new tariffs, according to a recent analysis.
Through December 5, the U.S. government has collected $259 billion in tariff revenue, the nonpartisan research initiative found. But a ruling by the high court that Mr. Trump unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the country-specific tariffs could force the government to offer refunds to importers, said Kent Smetters, a professor of business economics and public policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
In a November hearing on the case, the Supreme Court seemed divided over whether Mr. Trump had the legal authority to impose sweeping levies under IEEPA. Several justices appeared skeptical, noting that IEEPA does not mention the word “tariff” and that no president has ever relied on the act to justify broad-based tariffs on other nations.
The Trump administration could likely maintain similar tariff rates by drawing on other laws if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down, although those statutes have more restrictions, according to legal experts.
For example, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 allows the U.S. president to restrict imports in the name of national security. Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 also authorizes the president to apply country-based tariffs if the U.S. Trade Representative determines that another nation is engaging in unfair trade practices.
Despite the prospects of a large government refund for importers, Smetters thinks that striking down the tariffs would ultimately spur U.S. economic growth.
“Tariffs are one of the least efficient ways of raising revenue,” he told CBS News, adding that tariffs make companies less productive because they have to pay more for imported parts and products.
“The government would have to come up with that money, so the federal debt would go up a little bit. But if these tariffs really were to go away, it would make U.S. companies more attractive to invest in,” Smetters added.
The Trump administration says tariffs are a key tool for energizing the U.S. manufacturing sector, boosting job growth, reducing the nation’s trade deficit and generating federal revenue.
“The economic and national security consequences of the failure to uphold President Trump’s lawful tariffs are enormous. The White House looks forward to the Supreme Court’s speedy and proper resolution of this matter,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to CBS News.
Too little, too late?
As of November 17, the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. was 16.8%, the highest since 1935, according to the Yale Budget Lab. That compares with 2.4% in January before Mr. Trump returned to office.
As a result, some small businesses say a tariff refund wouldn’t offset the damage they say has been caused by sharply higher import duties.
“The money would go back to suppliers that incurred the tariffs. We are the end customer, and we continue to get the short end of the stick,” Trinita Rhodes, the owner of Beauty Supply Refresh in Florissant, Missouri, said Wednesday in a media call hosted by Tariffs Cost US, an advocacy group that opposes Mr. Trump’s levies.
Rachel Lutz, owner of a women’s clothing boutique, The Peacock Room, in Detroit, said a potential tariff refund would come too late.
“Small businesses don’t have more than a 30-day cash reserve,” he said in the Tariffs Cost US call. “Reimbursement at this point doesn’t make up for the disruption of staff cuts or hiring we could have made. The damage has already been done.”
Consumers are also feeling the impact of tariffs, research shows. Between February and November, U.S. households paid an average of $1,197.50 in tariffs, totaling nearly $160 billion, according to a report this month from Democrats on the U.S. Congressional Joint Economic Committee.
“While President Trump promised that he would lower costs, this report shows that his tariffs have done nothing but drive prices even higher for families,” Sen. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat from New Hampshire and ranking member of the Joint Economic Committee, said in a statement Thursday. “At a time when both parties should be working together to lower costs, the President’s tax on American families is simply making things more expensive.”