Trump Net Job Approval Reaches Second-Term Low

Donald Trump does not appear to be particularly worried about public opinion. Despite a government shutdown, which he seems to believe his party is “winning,” the president is jetting around the world, cutting deals, accepting extravagant gifts, and claiming to resolve wars and other conflicts. Indeed, in the context of his unhappiness at not being able to run for a third term, he keeps telling us he has “the highest poll numbers I’ve ever had.”

That’s not true. In fact, according to the polling averages we use here from Silver Bulletin, Trump’s net approval rating today, at minus-10.8 percent, is the lowest of his second term. His average approval rating of 43.1 percent also equals his second-term low, and his average disapproval rating is also a second-term high at 53.9 percent. He’s at net double-digit negatives in the most recent polls from Economist-YouGov (minus-19 percent), Quinnipiac (minus-14 percent), Reuters-Ipsos (minus-17 percent), American Research Group (minus-23 percent), and Gallup (minus-13 percent). Even Trump’s favorite polling outlet, Rasmussen Reports, currently has him at a second-term low net approval rating of minus-8 percent. By way of context, it should be noted the only president dating back to Harry Truman with a lower net job approval rating at this point of his presidency was Trump himself during his first term (he was at net minus-17.3 percent, per Silver Bulletin).

Trump’s low point in net job approval is the product of a slow and somewhat erratic deterioration over time rather than any sudden lurch. It’s been underwater since March, and over 5 percent-net-negative since June. There’s no single issue driving his lower approvals, so far as we can tell, though again, according to Silver Bulletin, he has net-negative job-approval averages on immigration (minus-3.0 percent), trade (minus-16.2 percent), the economy (minus-16.4 percent), and inflation (minus-27.6 percent). Bad as that last number is, it was quite a bit worse on October 1 (minus-32.8 percent).

More specific issues aren’t helping Trump’s standing but may not be as significant as the fundamentals. The most recent Quinnipiac poll shows voters split pretty equally on blame for the ongoing government shutdown. And while nearly half of respondents approve of Trump’s handling of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, well over half doubt it will stick. A recent Yahoo-YouGov poll finds that Americans disapprove of Trump’s demolition of the White House East Wing to build a ballroom by a 61 percent to 25 percent margin, but it’s unclear how much it matters to them.

Trump has been very preoccupied with trying to improve his party’s odds in the 2026 midterms by pushing Republican-controlled states to draw congressional maps in the GOP’s favor. Polls show why he feels the need to rig the landscape: In the generic congressional ballot that tests which party Americans want to control Congress, Democrats currently lead by 2.7 percent in the RealClearPolitics averages. In the same averages before last year’s elections producing the current tiny GOP House majority, Republicans led by 0.3 percent. DecisionDesk HQ places the current Democratic advantage on the generic ballot at 3.5 percent.