It’s a perennial argument: Does President Donald Trump know he’s lying, or is he just stupid or demented (or both)? For example, does he know he lost the 2020 presidential election, or does he actually believe the falsehoods he spreads about it?
Every once in a while, though, he slips up and tells the truth, revealing that he’s not entirely deluded. One of those moments came on Wednesday, when Trump admitted to Reuters that Republicans are headed for trouble this November.
“It’s some deep psychological thing, but when you win the presidency, you don’t win the midterms,” he said. And rather than lean on his go-to lies—supposed voter fraud or the vast conspiracy he claims robbed him and his party in past elections—he veered straight into authoritarian fantasy: “When you think of it, we shouldn’t even have an election.”
No one is thinking that except Trump. But everyone is looking at the same numbers he clearly is.
As Trump tries to shore up the GOP’s fragile House majority through norms-busting mid-decade redistricting, the Cook Political Report has shifted its race ratings for 18 seats toward Democrats. The new ratings, published Thursday, look tough for Republicans.
Republicans are favored to take only three Democratic-held seats (North Carolina’s 1st, Maine’s 2nd, and Texas’ 35th districts). Beyond that, Republicans have few offensive opportunities, while some of the seats they tried to steal via redistricting remain highly competitive or still lean Democratic.
The pressure is even clearer on the Republican side. One GOP-held seat has moved to “Lean Democrat” and should flip in this environment: Nebraska’s 2nd District. And in the “tossup” category, the imbalance is striking: Just four Democratic seats are considered shaky, compared with 14 Republican seats.
This follows 11 rating changes in early November—10 shifting toward Democrats—and another four Democratic shifts later in the month. Virginia’s redistricting fight is still ahead, suggesting that Republicans’ exposure may grow.
And this is early. Unless the political climate unexpectedly shifts in Trump’s favor, more Republican seats should come into play. This cycle already features an extremely high number of congressional retirements. Of the 58 Senate or House members not running for their current seats, 32 are Republicans. Like Trump, they see the writing on the wall—though most aren’t demanding elections be canceled to save themselves.
Meanwhile, the Senate is suddenly, improbably, in play. Democrats are within range of erasing their 53-47 minority.
Their top pickup opportunities are Maine—the only state with a Republican senator that Kamala Harris carried in 2024—and the open seat in North Carolina.
After that, the map gets tougher but still plausible: Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. Trump won all of these states by double digits. But the climate is that bad. More of America now affiliates themselves with the Democratic Party, according to Gallup.
Candidates matter, too. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is the star recruit, but Mary Peltola’s Senate run in Alaska is a strong pickup opportunity. She has previously won statewide and narrowly lost her 2024 House reelection in a much harsher environment.
Iowa polling is scarce, but the state has been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs, forced deportations, and the elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development—effectively a farm subsidy program. And in Texas, early polling shows a close race. The state has long been Democrats’ white whale, but maybe this is the cycle …
Democrats will have to defend seats in Michigan and Georgia, both purple-to-light-red states. In a Republican wave year, those would be tough holds. In a cycle where Democrats have outperformed by double digits in special elections, holding them becomes far more manageable.
Which brings us back to Trump fantasizing about canceling elections. He knows what’s coming. He can’t muster the energy to scream about fraud anymore. He knows he’s about to lose his compliant Congress, and he knows that a Democratic majority will get deeply into his—and his family’s—business. Another impeachment would be all but inevitable. And—hot take—if Republicans lose badly enough, some may even join in, desperate to rid themselves of the stench.
Trump is dragging them down. Are they really going to sink with him?
What Trump gets wrong, even in his moment of lucidity, is that this isn’t “psychological.” It’s material. Prices are still high. Wages aren’t keeping up. He promised affordability on Day 1, then pivoted to threatening Greenland, stealing Venezuela’s oil, demolishing the White House without a plan, promoting cryptocurrency scams, cozying up to dictators, potentially installing marble armrests at the Kennedy Center, renaming the cultural center, and sending federal agents to swarm American cities.
He’s so furious that affordability—the thing that got him elected—is hurting him that he’s started calling it a “hoax” and repeating the same mistake that doomed former President Joe Biden: refusing to acknowledge the public’s economic distress. All the while, Trump remains in violation of the law by refusing to release the full government files on accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. By slow-walking them instead, he’s dragging out the pain—for himself and his party.
This will be a bad year to be a Republican. Trump knows it. His party knows it. And that’s why he’s daydreaming about a future without elections—because elections are about to put the brakes on all this madness.
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