Tropical development likely in the Gulf this weekend

TAMPA, Fla. — A strong tropical wave (Invest 97L) over Hispaniola is expected to move over Cuba tomorrow and Saturday, then up into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Development of this system will be slow for the next couple of days, then development is likely in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico up toward the Florida Big Bend going into Monday.

Right now, all the computer guidance shows the intensity as a tropical depression or tropical storm. It is important to remember, with a disorganized tropical depression or tropical storm, the exact center doesn’t matter as much. Most of the wet weather will be east of the track, bringing heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.

Central Florida and the Space Coast could also see some rain, but the highest rainfall totals and wind speeds will be further west and toward the Panhandle.

The latest models have switched from yesterday and show the system keeps moving up into Georgia or the Carolina coast into next week. Although heavy rain is possible in Florida, the continued movement will decrease the chances of extreme rainfall totals. Without any question, the primary risk will be heavy rain and possible flooding. The two main global models show similar rainfall totals.

Be sure to check back often as development is likely pretty close to the west coast of Florida as early as Sunday morning.