Tropical Depression Nine expected to become a tropical storm soon

Tropical Depression Nine is moving toward the Bahamas and expected to become a tropical storm soon. The next name on the list is Imelda.

Tropical Depression Nine has maximum winds of 35 mph. The storm is almost stationary, moving northwest at 2 mph toward the Bahamas. The depression this evening remains fairly disorganized, with convection mainly oriented in a north-south fashion with only a hint of banding on the northern side.

It’s expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Imelda and then eventually into a hurricane as it heads north toward the southeastern coast. There is still above-average uncertainty in the details of the long-range forecast. It is notable to point out the system has been moving slower than anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have significant implications on its ultimate track.

In general, models agree that the presence of Hurricane Humberto to the east will result in a weakening of steering currents, causing the system to slow down and meander near the southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. The offical NHC track now favors a slower storm and a track that turns sharper to the east, keeping it farther away from the U.S. coast. Fewer models are showing a landfalling tropical cyclone.

Even with a high degree of uncertainty, there is a threat of heavy rainfall early next week from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.

Tropical Depression 9 is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it is too soon to be specific about track and intensity, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

The cone of uncertainty displays where the center of a storm could be located. It does not predict which areas may feel the storm’s impact. Anyone outside but near the cone should be on alert and make storm preparations.

Models show the system approaching the coast of Georgia and South Carolina and slowing down. It could make landfall or turn back out into the Atlantic before moving inland.

Spaghetti models or plots show a series of individual computer forecast models together on one map. They are useful to give insight into whether multiple models are in agreement on the path of the storm but they do not address the storm’s forecast intensity, winds, flooding and storm surge potential or other data. Tap here for more details on how to best use these models.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Bahamas. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect up Florida’s East Coast.

The threat for significant rainfall and flash flooding is expected across parts of the Southeast throughout early next week regardless of where Tropical Depression Nine goes. 

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