I’ve been spending the last few months doing something I normally try to avoid.
Drowning in data.
Not headlines.
Not opinions.
Actual data.
Boring spreadsheets. Government statistics. Capital flow charts. Currency movements. Asset correlations. Central bank balance sheets.
The kind of data most people never look at, and honestly, the kind I usually delegate.
But this time was different.
Because for the first time in my career, the patterns I was seeing forced me to seriously re-evaluate how I run my businesses and how I protect my own money.
I run an American company doing over $100 million in revenue.
And I’ve come to a conclusion I never expected to reach:
I can no longer afford to have my financial life overly concentrated in America.
What’s happening globally is moving much faster than people realize. So fast that if you’re not paying attention, it could quietly erode your savings and investments before you even understand what hit you.
That’s why I built a private site called The Great Rebalancing, originally for a small circle of close friends, to pressure-test my own assumptions.
I’m sharing it with you now.
This is not financial advice.
It’s a map of signals.
And the signals are loud, if you know where to look.
Here Are the Numbers That Made Me Stop
Let me be very clear. These are not opinions.
They are facts.
The Currency Signals:
- The U.S. dollar fell 11% in the first half of 2025, its worst drop since 1973.
- Major banks, including Morgan Stanley, forecast another 10–20% decline through 2027.
The Global Capital Signals:
- Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries has dropped from 50% to 33%.
- Central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace in modern history.
- Gold rose 55% in 2025, crossing $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever.
- Bitcoin fell 6.3% in the same period, after crashing 23.5% from its peak.
The Market Behavior Signals:
- International stocks outperformed the S&P 500 for the first time in 15 years.
- The S&P 500 is now 35% concentrated in just seven stocks — the highest concentration on record.
Hiring is slowing. Unemployment is ticking up. Capital spending is becoming more cautious.
Again: These aren’t narratives. They’re signals. (learn more about these signals below.)
And together, they tell a very clear story:
The world is rebalancing away from U.S.-centric risk.
This Is Not Politics. It’s Risk Management.
I want to be explicit here.
This is not about ideology. It’s not about liking or disliking America. It’s not about being “anti” anything.
Markets don’t punish. They diversify.
What we’re seeing is the global system hedging against unpredictability.
Global capital doesn’t respond to ideology; it responds to unpredictability.
And any administration that shifts policy rapidly creates volatility in trade, alliances, and markets.
Investors outside the U.S. can hedge against that unpredictability.
Americans, however, remain fully exposed to it.
And in markets, three years of uncertainty is an eternity.
I hear this a lot: “It’s temporary. It’ll pass.”
Maybe.
But businesses fail in 12–24 months.
Portfolios get reshaped in months, not decades.
Capital allocation decisions made today compound for a lifetime.
Waiting for clarity is not neutrality. It’s a bet.
And historically, it’s not a great one.
The goal in times like this isn’t prediction. It’s optionality.
The Dollar Was Never Just Currency (the currency signal)
The U.S. dollar isn’t just money. It’s trust infrastructure.
It works because the world assumes:
- Policy changes will be gradual
- Alliances will be respected
- Rules won’t change overnight
When that trust weakens, capital doesn’t run screaming.
It quietly reallocates.
Into euros, gold, international assets, and jurisdictions that feel boring, stable, and predictable.
That’s what’s happening now.
If all of your savings, income, and assets are denominated in U.S. dollars simply because “that’s what we’ve always done,” you may be taking on more risk than you realize.
Watch What People Do — Not What They Say (the market behavior signal)
Another mistake people make is listening to rhetoric instead of behavior.
The rebalancing always shows up in behavior before it appears in headlines.
So watch behavior.
- International visitors are declining.
- Foreign student enrollment is falling.
- Capital is rotating into Europe and Asia.
- Central banks are hoarding gold, quietly, aggressively, without press conferences.
No one announced a boycott. No one coordinated a protest.
These are millions of independent decisions converging on the same conclusion.
That convergence is the signal.
Gold, Bitcoin, and the Question Everyone Is Asking Me (the global capital signal)
People keep asking:
“Should I buy Bitcoin or gold?”
Here’s my framework:
- Gold rises when people lose faith in leadership and institutions
- Bitcoin rises when people lose faith in government itself
Right now, gold is surging. Bitcoin is not.
That tells us something subtle but important.
People still believe in governance. They don’t believe in competent, predictable leadership everywhere.
That’s why gold, the oldest institutional hedge, is winning.
And it’s why I’ve made a decision across my own companies:
We are no longer storing excess reserves purely in U.S. dollars.
We are diversifying into:
- Gold
- Gold index funds
- Gold and silver exposure outside the U.S.
Companies in Dubai are already doing this.
We’re simply catching up.
Why I Built The Great Rebalancing
I built The Great Rebalancing because I needed clarity for myself. And this clarity is one of the greatest gifts we can give ourselves, especially in times of global transition.
Dollar or euro?
Gold or Bitcoin?
U.S. stocks or international?
AI exposure or concentration risk?
The answers were not what I expected.
I originally shared this with close friends and every Mindvalley author. Then I realized this list deserved access too.
The site walks through nine major global trends, with charts, data, and a short quiz that teaches one essential idea:
Hedging your bets doesn’t mean fear. It means intelligence.
When you invest in stocks, you don’t buy one company. You diversify.
Right now, the same logic applies at the country and currency level.
👉 Explore the interactive guide: The Great Rebalancing
*And take the Portfolio Assessment Quiz (no-sign-up needed)
This is not financial advice. It’s perspective.
And perspective is what keeps entrepreneurs like you alive during transitions.
The Real Question
This moment isn’t asking you to predict the future.
It’s asking something simpler, and far more important:
“Am I truly prepared no matter which way the world moves?”
The world is already answering that question.
Quietly.
Rapidly.
Without asking permission.
The Great Rebalancing isn’t coming.
It’s already here.
Once you’ve gone through The Great Rebalancing site, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Leave a comment and tell me what patterns you’re seeing in your own world.
And if you’re American — or you have family, friends, or colleagues living in the U.S. — I encourage you to share this guide with them, because clarity protects the people we care about.
Stay curious,
Something Exciting Coming Up For You
PS: A lot of you have been writing to me asking how I’m able to make the time and space to acquire new skills, things like – learning stand-up comedy, singing, and bachata.
It wouldn’t have been possible without AI.
So, I’m hosting a free AI Productivity Webinar to walk you through the systems that saved me a lot of time.
I’m just back to London, and still finalizing my schedule, so I’ll announce the exact date and time tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Vishen
Source link