Texas Democrats are racing to vote—but let’s hold our horses

Democratic turnout in Texas’ primaries is surging, with over 100,000 more people taking a Democratic ballot than a Republican one, according to data compiled by VoteHub on Sunday.

With more than a week to go before the March 3 primary, Democratic turnout is more than 87% of the final primary turnout from 2022, while Republican turnout is at just 43% of the final turnout the same year, according to VoteHub. That’s a sign that Democratic turnout will blow past 2022 even before a single Election Day ballot is cast.

So what does the primary turnout mean?

Not to burst everyone’s bubble, but not all that much.

First, this year’s Democratic primary features a high-profile, competitive Senate contest between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, while 2022 did not. In a sense, comparing 2022’s turnout with this year’s is apples to oranges. 

And a Democratic organizer in Texas analyzed the results and found that many of the people casting ballots in the Democratic primary are habitual voters who likely would have turned out in a general election anyway.

“I’m about to ruin a lot of people’s timelines. You know that massive Democratic primary surge in Harris County everyone’s losing their minds over? I looked up whether these ‘new’ voters actually show up in general elections. Spoiler: 82% of them already do,” Levi Asher, who works on Democratic campaigns in Texas, wrote in a post on X.

More than that, primary turnout is not a good indicator of what will happen in a general election.

For example, in the 2008 presidential primaries in Texas, more than 2.8 million people voted in the Democratic contest between then-Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Meanwhile, less than 1.4 million people voted in the Republican primary, which then-Sen. John McCain won. But come November, McCain beat Obama in the state by nearly 12 points.

Still, the fact that Democrats are engaged in the primary is a good sign that Democratic enthusiasm is strong. And an enthusiasm gap is a good sign ahead of a midterm election.

Democrats will walk over hot coals to punish the Republican Party for not only refusing to stand up to Donald Trump’s destructive behavior and policies, but also for enabling them at every turn.

And polling does show that Democrats have a chance in Texas in November, especially if GOP Sen. John Cornyn loses the Republican primary to scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

An Emerson College survey from January found the race tied at 45% if Crockett or Talarico face off with Paxton.

In other words, Democrats might just get their white whale and win Texas in November—in large part because Trump is unpopular and losing the support of Latino voters, who constitute a large chunk of the Texas electorate.

But primary turnout isn’t the best indicator of those ultimate results.