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  • Nvidia may be the AI stock for now, but here are the picks for later, says Goldman Sachs

    Nvidia may be the AI stock for now, but here are the picks for later, says Goldman Sachs

    Wall Street looks ready to build on Monday’s gains, the first in five sessions for the S&P 500
    SPX
    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP.
    That’s as expectations build around Nvidia, which has had a lackluster August, to knock it out of the park with earnings on Wednesday.

    Investors have had months to focus on AI darlings such as Nvidia. In our call of the day, Goldman Sachs takes a look at stocks to trade after the big AI trade. A team led by strategists Ryan Hammond and David Kostin complied a basket of companies with the biggest potential long-term earnings per share boost from the impact of AI adoption on labor productivity.

    Their analysis indicates that following widespread AI adoption, EPS for the median stock in that basket could be 72% higher than the baseline, versus 19% for the median Russell 1000 stock.

    “We estimate the potential productivity-related EPS boost from increased revenues or increased margins, using a combination of company-level estimates of the share of the wage bill exposed to AI automation and the labor cost to revenue ratio,” said the Goldman team.

    Since early 2023, when AI emerged as a theme for investors, they note their long-term basket of stocks has outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 by just 6 percentage points, far less than near-term beneficiaries such as Nvidia
    NVDA,
    -0.49%
    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.94%

    or Meta
    META,
    +0.51%
    .


    Goldman Sachs Investment Research

    “The estimated AI-driven earnings boost is likely to occur over the next few years, but should be reflected in stock valuations sooner. However, the eventual share price impact will depend on the ability of companies to use AI to enhance earnings,” said Goldman.

    While unable to pin it exactly, Goldman expects AI adoption will start to a have a “meaningful macro impact” between 2025 and 2030, with regulatory constraints and data privacy concerns likely to slow widespread adoption. Nearly 75% of CEOs see AI take-up impacting companies or cutting labor needs within the next five years, even if they don’t right now.

    Firms with the biggest workforce exposure to AI and larger and more innovative ones, will likely adopt generative AI earlier than others, say the strategists. They say to “expect valuation multiples for these companies to increase first as the adoption timeline crystallizes, even if actual adoption and the associated EPS boost is occur later.”

    Goldman’s estimates on the potential earnings boost for those long-term AI beneficiaries consist of several factors: the share of each company’s wage bill exposed to AI automation, how much of a company’s wage bill is exposed to AI automation and labor cost as a share of revenue.

    “For the typical Russell 1000 stock, 33% of the wage bill is potentially exposed to AI automation and labor costs currently represent 14% of total sales. The potential boost from higher sales would increase earnings by 11% and reduced labor costs would increase earnings by 26%, all else equal,” say the strategists.

    Here is a taster of their long-term AI beneficiaries basket:


    Goldman Sachs

    And a few more:


    Goldman Sachs

    Read: U.S. stocks may bounce this week, but summer selloff is only halfway done, analysts warn

    The markets

    U.S. stocks
    SPX

    COMP
    are trading mixed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    is steady at 4.33%.

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.94%

    has proposed a Ubisoft license to win U.K. regulatory approval for its Activision Blizzard
    ATVI,
    +1.09%

    buyout. Activision shares and Ubisoft
    UBI,
    +9.93%

    surged in Paris.

    On the heels of a 7% surge, EV-maker Tesla
    TSLA,
    +2.77%

    is up 1.8%.

    Opinion: SoftBank’s Arm is going public, but it faces a rapidly growing threat

    Lowe’s shares
    LOW,
    +3.34%

    are up after the DIY retailer’s earnings topped expectations, though it notes lower discretionary demand.

    Among Monday’s late earnings news: Fabrinet
    FN,
    +27.25%

    is up 18% after the high-tech manufacturing services company upbeat forecast, with new AI products helping drive results. Videoconferencing group Zoom Video Communications
    ZM,
    -4.15%

    is up 4% after reporting an earnings jump and guidance.

    Read: Why Amazon is this analyst’s top internet stock pick

    The world’s biggest miner BHP
    BHP,
    -0.98%

    reported a 58% slump in annual profit amid tumbling commodity prices in part due to China’s economic troubles. U.S.-listed shares are up 4%.

    Arm Holdings filed its long-awaited IPO, which could be the year’s biggest. The chip designer aims to raise up to $10 billion with a valuation of $60 billion to $70 billion.

    Existing home sales for July are due at 10 a.m., with several Fed speakers throughout the day: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at 7:30 a.m. and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed. Gov. Michelle Bowman both at 2:30 p.m.

    Best of the web

    ‘Own what the Mother of All Bubbles crowd doesn’t.’ This market strategist expects stagflation and is investing for it now.

    New video shows the day police raided 98-year old Kansas newspaper owner’s home.

    Hitler’s birth house in Austria will be turned into a police station with a human rights training center.

    The tickers

    These were the top tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

    Ticker

    Security name

    TSLA,
    +2.77%
    Tesla

    NVDA,
    -0.49%
    Nvidia

    AMC,
    -17.31%
    AMC Entertainment

    NIO,
    -1.87%
    Nio

    APE,
    -11.32%
    AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares

    TTOO,
    -6.13%
    T2 Biosystems

    GME,
    -3.63%
    GameStop

    AAPL,
    +0.63%
    Apple

    MULN,
    -19.19%
    Mullen Automotive

    AMZN,
    +0.15%
    Amazon.com

    The chart

    Is tech dancing to the beat of its own drum? The Chart Report flagged this one from Scott Brown, founder of Brown Technical Insights, showing performance of the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
    XLK
    :


    @scottcharts

    “It’s only been a week, but consensus and conventional wisdom suggest higher yields are bad for Growth/Tech stocks. Meanwhile, Tech is acting like it never got the memo. It’s still too early to tell if Tech is trying to tell us something, but Scott points out that the sector is facing a crucial test this week at the March 2022 highs (around $163). $XLK is solidly above $163 after today’s bounce, but where it ends the week will likely hinge on $NVDA, as the company releases earnings on Wednesday evening,” says Patrick Dunuwila, editor and co-founder of The Chart Report. 

    Random reads

    “We are the champions.” Spain erupted in celebrations to welcome its Women’s World Cup victors. And England’s Lionesses got a 1,000 soccer-ball tribute.

    No, Tropical Storm Hilary didn’t flood Dodger Stadium.

    These thirsty beer-drinking thieves are raccoons.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch financial columnist James Rogers and economist Stephanie Kelton.

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  • Exclusive: Chinese hackers attacked Kenyan government as debt strains grew

    Exclusive: Chinese hackers attacked Kenyan government as debt strains grew

    • Cyber spies infiltrated Kenyan networks from 2019
    • Hit finance ministry, president’s office, spy agency and others
    • Sources believe Beijing was seeking info on debt

    NAIROBI, May 24 (Reuters) – Chinese hackers targeted Kenya’s government in a widespread, years-long series of digital intrusions against key ministries and state institutions, according to three sources, cybersecurity research reports and Reuters’ own analysis of technical data related to the hackings.

    Two of the sources assessed the hacks to be aimed, at least in part, at gaining information on debt owed to Beijing by the East African nation: Kenya is a strategic link in the Belt and Road Initiative – President Xi Jinping’s plan for a global infrastructure network.

    “Further compromises may occur as the requirement for understanding upcoming repayment strategies becomes needed,” a July 2021 research report written by a defence contractor for private clients stated.

    China’s foreign ministry said it was “not aware” of any such hacking, while China’s embassy in Britain called the accusations “baseless”, adding that Beijing opposes and combats “cyberattacks and theft in all their forms.”

    China’s influence in Africa has grown rapidly over the past two decades. But, like several African nations, Kenya’s finances are being strained by the growing cost of servicing external debt – much of it owed to China.

    The hacking campaign demonstrates China’s willingness to leverage its espionage capabilities to monitor and protect economic and strategic interests abroad, two of the sources said.

    The hacks constitute a three-year campaign that targeted eight of Kenya’s ministries and government departments, including the presidential office, according to an intelligence analyst in the region. The analyst also shared with Reuters research documents that included the timeline of attacks, the targets, and provided some technical data relating to the compromise of a server used exclusively by Kenya’s main spy agency.

    A Kenyan cybersecurity expert described similar hacking activity against the foreign and finance ministries. All three of the sources asked not to be named due to the sensitive nature of their work.

    “Your allegation of hacking attempts by Chinese Government entities is not unique,” Kenya’s presidential office said, adding the government had been targeted by “frequent infiltration attempts” from Chinese, American and European hackers.

    “As far as we are concerned, none of the attempts were successful,” it said.

    It did not provide further details nor respond to follow-up questions.

    A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Britain said China is against “irresponsible moves that use topics like cybersecurity to sow discord in the relations between China and other developing countries”.

    “China attaches great importance to Africa’s debt issue and works intensively to help Africa cope with it,” the spokesperson added.

    THE HACKS

    Between 2000 and 2020, China committed nearly $160 billion in loans to African countries, according to a comprehensive database on Chinese lending hosted by Boston University, much of it for large-scale infrastructure projects.

    Kenya used over $9 billion in Chinese loans to fund an aggressive push to build or upgrade railways, ports and highways.

    Beijing became the country’s largest bilateral creditor and gained a firm foothold in the most important East African consumer market and a vital logistical hub on Africa’s Indian Ocean coast.

    By late 2019, however, when the Kenyan cybersecurity expert told Reuters he was brought in by Kenyan authorities to assess a hack of a government-wide network, Chinese lending was drying up. And Kenya’s financial strains were showing.

    The breach reviewed by the Kenyan cybersecurity expert and attributed to China began with a “spearphishing” attack at the end of that same year, when a Kenyan government employee unknowingly downloaded an infected document, allowing hackers to infiltrate the network and access other agencies.

    “A lot of documents from the ministry of foreign affairs were stolen and from the finance department as well. The attacks appeared focused on the debt situation,” the Kenyan cybersecurity expert said.

    Another source – the intelligence analyst working in the region – said Chinese hackers carried out a far-reaching campaign against Kenya that began in late 2019 and continued until at least 2022.

    According to documents provided by the analyst, Chinese cyber spies subjected the office of Kenya’s president, its defence, information, health, land and interior ministries, its counter-terrorism centre and other institutions to persistent and prolonged hacking activity.

    The affected government departments did not respond to requests for comment, declined to be interviewed or were unreachable.

    By 2021, global economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic had already helped push one major Chinese borrower – Zambia – to default on its external debt. Kenya managed to secure a temporary debt repayment moratorium from China.

    In early July 2021, the cybersecurity research reports shared by the intelligence analyst in the region detailed how the hackers secretly accessed an email server used by Kenya’s National Intelligence Service (NIS).

    Reuters was able to confirm that the victim’s IP address belonged to the NIS. The incident was also covered in a report from the private defence contractor reviewed by Reuters.

    Reuters could not determine what information was taken during the hacks or conclusively establish the motive for the attacks. But the defence contractor’s report said the NIS breach was possibly aimed at gleaning information on how Kenya planned to manage its debt payments.

    “Kenya is currently feeling the pressure of these debt burdens…as many of the projects financed by Chinese loans are not generating enough income to pay for themselves yet,” the report stated.

    A Reuters review of internet logs delineating the Chinese digital espionage activity showed that a server controlled by the Chinese hackers also accessed a shared Kenyan government webmail service more recently from December 2022 until February this year.

    Chinese officials declined to comment on this recent breach, and the Kenyan authorities did not respond to a question about it.

    ‘BACKDOOR DIPLOMACY’

    The defence contractor, pointing to identical tools and techniques used in other hacking campaigns, identified a Chinese state-linked hacking team as having carried out the attack on Kenya’s intelligence agency.

    The group is known as “BackdoorDiplomacy” in the cybersecurity research community, because of its record of trying to further the objectives of Chinese diplomatic strategy.

    According to Slovakia-based cybersecurity firm ESET, BackdoorDiplomacy re-uses malicious software against its victims to gain access to their networks, making it possible to track their activities.

    Provided by Reuters with the IP address of the NIS hackers, Palo Alto Networks, a U.S. cybersecurity firm that tracks BackdoorDiplomacy’s activities, confirmed that it belongs to the group, adding that its prior analysis shows the group is sponsored by the Chinese state.

    Cybersecurity researchers have documented BackdoorDiplomacy hacks targeting governments and institutions in a number of countries in Asia and Europe.

    Incursions into the Middle East and Africa appear less common, making the focus and scale of its hacking activities in Kenya particularly noteworthy, the defence contractor’s report said.

    “This angle is clearly a priority for the group.”

    China’s embassy in Britain rejected any involvement in the Kenya hackings, and did not directly address questions about the government’s relationship with BackdoorDiplomacy.

    “China is a main victim of cyber theft and attacks and a staunch defender of cybersecurity,” a spokesperson said.

    Reporting by Aaron Ross in Nairobi, James Pearson in London and Christopher Bing in Washington
    Additional reporting by Eduardo Baptista in Beijing
    Editing by Chris Sanders and Joe Bavier

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

    Aaron Ross

    Thomson Reuters

    West & Central Africa correspondent investigating human rights abuses, conflict and corruption as well as regional commodities production, epidemic diseases and the environment, previously based in Kinshasa, Abidjan and Cairo.

    James Pearson

    Thomson Reuters

    Reports on hacks, leaks and digital espionage in Europe. Ten years at Reuters with previous postings in Hanoi as Bureau Chief and Seoul as Korea Correspondent. Author of ‘North Korea Confidential’, a book about daily life in North Korea. Contact: 447927347451

    Christopher Bing

    Thomson Reuters

    Award-winning reporter covering the intersection between technology and national security with a focus on how the evolving cybersecurity landscape affects government and business.

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  • Silicon Valley Confronts the End of Growth. It’s a New Era for Tech Stocks.

    Silicon Valley Confronts the End of Growth. It’s a New Era for Tech Stocks.

    Silicon Valley could use a reboot. The biggest players aren’t growing, and more than a few are seeing sharp revenue declines. Regulators seem opposed to every proposed merger, while legislators push for new rules to crack down on the internet giants. The Justice Department just can’t stop filing antitrust suits against Google. The initial public offering market is closed. Venture-capital investments are plunging, along with valuations of prepublic companies. Maybe they should try turning the whole thing on and off.

    The only strategy that seems to be working is to lay people off. Tech CEOs suddenly are channeling Marie Kondo, tidying up and keeping only the people and projects that “spark joy,” or at least support decent operating margins. Layoffs.fyi reports that tech companies have laid off more than 122,000 people already this year.

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  • Zoom to Lay Off 15% of Staff, CEO Slashes Salary

    Zoom to Lay Off 15% of Staff, CEO Slashes Salary

    Zoom to Lay Off 15% of Staff, CEO Slashes Salary

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  • The PC boom has gone bust, and we are about to see the results ahead of Black Friday

    The PC boom has gone bust, and we are about to see the results ahead of Black Friday

    The pandemic-fueled personal-computer boom has ended, so how will that affect demand and pricing for PCs and the retailers that sell them this holiday season?

    A sense of the fallout will be provided in the week ahead with results due from PC makers Dell Technologies Inc.
    DELL,
    +0.67%

    and HP Inc.
    HPQ,
    +0.17%
    ,
    along with videoconferencing platform Zoom Video Communications Inc.
    ZM,
    -1.15%

    and electronics chain Best Buy Co Inc.
    BBY,
    +2.88%

    All of those companies will report amid signs of deep holiday discounting for products such as clothing and electronics, after many customers — stuck at home in 2020 and 2021 — loaded up on laptops and other goods and turned Zoom into a digital conference room. But this year, decades-high inflation, and a return to prepandemic spending on travel and hanging out in person, have forced retailers and electronics makers to adjust to a world where more people are spending on essentials.

    PC shipments have fallen at rates not seen since at least the 1990s. Adobe
    ADBE,
    -2.06%

    has said online holiday discounts for electronics have been as steep as 17%. For computers, they’ve run for as much as 10% less. TVs are also being sold for cheaper. Holiday-season forecasts have generally called for sales increases, helped by price increases and enduring demand despite those price increases.

    In-depth: The pandemic PC boom is over, but its legacy will live on

    However, results from Target
    TGT,
    +0.54%

    on Wednesday missed big on third-quarter earnings, and the big-box retailer said it was bracing for a possible decline in fourth-quarter same-store sales, citing “softening sales and profit trends that emerged late in the third quarter and persisted into November.” Results from Walmart
    WMT,
    +1.51%

    were almost the opposite, however, detailing earnings that beat by a wide margin and a raised full-year outlook.

    Among smaller retailers, discounter Ross Stores Inc.
    ROST,
    +9.86%

    hiked its full-year profit forecast, citing sales momentum but easier year-over-year comparisons up ahead. But Williams-Sonoma Inc.
    WSM,
    -6.15%

    noted “macro uncertainty” and “increasingly inconsistent” demand.

    This week in earnings

    The companies report during a shortened, quieter week — thanks to Thanksgiving — and after concerns about a recession have hung over much of the year. With 94% of S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.48%

    companies having already reported third-quarter results, only a dozen are set to release earnings in the week ahead.

    But among those 94%, there are signs that preoccupations with a downturn might be easing, after the economy grew during the third quarter and reversed after two quarters of declines.

    FactSet senior analyst John Butters, in a report on Thursday, said 179 companies have mentioned the term “recession,” during earnings calls in the third quarter. That’s still above the average over 10 years, but it’s below the 242 companies that mentioned a recession in the second quarter.

    Previously: Executives seem pretty convinced a recession is coming

    Elsewhere on Monday, J.M. Smucker Co.
    SJM,
    +1.11%

    — best known for Folgers and Jif — reports results, following concerns about higher food prices and how much higher they might go. Life-sciences electronics maker Agilent Tecnologies Inc.
    A,
    +1.21%

    report results on Monday as well. Fast-food chain Jack in the Box Inc.
    JACK,

    reports Tuesday. Tractor and construction-vehicle Deere & Co.
    DE,
    +0.31%

    reports Wednesday, following production and supply-chain snarls but steady demand.

    The calls to put on your calendar

    Clothing demand, discount demand: Urban Outfitters Inc.
    URBN,
    +2.44%

    reports Monday, while Burlington Stores Inc.
    BURL,
    +4.63%
    ,
    Nordstrom Inc.
    JWN,
    +1.71%

    and dollar-store chain Dollar Tree Inc.
    DLTR,
    -0.21%

    report on Tuesday.

    The discounting wave across clothing retailers, an effort to clear inventories, might attract more consumers, but it’s worried Wall Street analysts focused on margins and the bottom line. Still, some analysts have said that more younger shoppers feel like their wardrobes are getting stale, and they say Nordstrom, whose customers tend to have more money, is best geared for “an upcoming wardrobe refresh.

    Off-price clothing and home-goods retailer Burlington, meanwhile, will report after rival discounters Ross and TJX received a lift from investors this week.

    See also: The holiday-shopping season has a different problem this year than last — and it could lead to some deals

    Ross’ chief executive, Barbara Rentler, noted that rising prices had hurt its lower-income consumers. But Jefferies analysts said that Burlington and other discounters, which often buy up goods that other retailers don’t want, stood to benefit from the inventory purge.

    Dollar Tree, meanwhile, reports as more shoppers seek cheaper grocery options, but as food prices rise nonetheless. But Bank of America analysts, in a note last month, said traffic data implied a “slowdown” heading into the results.

    The numbers to watch

    Demand trends for PCs, electronics: Dell and HP report in the wake of deeper job cuts across the tech industry, while Zoom tries to tack on more features — such as calendar and email functions — to appeal to small business and adapt to a hybrid-work world.

    The PC boom’s demise hit home at Dell during its prior quarter, reported in August, after personal-computer sales at the company came in below estimates. Executives, at that time, said PC demand had fallen and that “customers are taking a more cautious view of their needs given the uncertainty.”

    Opinion: Tech earnings are about to dive, and there’s no life preserver in sight

    Some analysts, however, signaled that some degree of investor pessimism was already baked into the stock prices.

    “We recognize the deteriorating industry fundamentals in relation to PCs as well as incremental slowdown in IT Infrastructure. That said, we believe the magnitude of the cuts last quarter set up Dell to be less exposed to another round of material earnings revisions,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note. And even as HP feels similar pain, analysts there said share buybacks could be “a bright spot.”

    Results from HP and Dell could also have implications for Best Buy, which sells laptops, TVs, phones and other electronic devices.

    “Recall that initial expectations for the year were that BBY would face pressure as it lapped stimulus-fueled spending and broad-based demand for technology products and services,” Wedbush analysts said in a note on Friday.

    “However, the macro has been more volatile than expected with consumers facing significant inflationary pressures and lower-income households are making decisions to trade down in some categories such as televisions.”

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  • For Long-Term Investors, It’s Time to Buy Tech Again. Here Are 20 Stocks to Look at First.

    For Long-Term Investors, It’s Time to Buy Tech Again. Here Are 20 Stocks to Look at First.

    One cruel truth the stock market confirmed this past week is that trying to pick the bottom for technology stocks is a fool’s errand. The Nasdaq Composite’s terrible September—it was down 10.5% on the month—has made the bottom-fishing that took place over the summer look ill-advised. As I’ve noted before, the first downturn in tech earlier this year was all about valuations. This new phase of the decline is all about softening earnings. When it comes to price-to-earnings ratios, the market is running into a denominator problem.

    The market downturn, the weaker economy, and the reversal of some pandemic-era trends have exposed weaknesses in the business models of companies such as


    Peloton Interactive


    (ticker: PTON),


    Zoom Video Communications


    (ZM),


    Shopify


    (SHOP),


    Affirm Holdings


    (AFRM), and


    Snap


    (SNAP), and investors have adjusted valuations accordingly. But there are still some powerful underlying secular trends that should eventually drive tech stocks higher. Investors with long time horizons and strong stomachs might consider inching into the market. I have a few ideas on where to look.

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