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  • No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up

    No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up

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    LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) – The latest bid by the world’s leading institutions and creditors to speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis watchers.

    Standoffs between major Western-backed lenders like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the world’s top bilateral creditor, China, have been blamed for keeping countries such as Zambia mired in default for nearly three years.

    The somewhat loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes.

    The renewed push to overcome the logjams came after a “roundtable” at the IMF Spring Meetings and included pledges from the Fund and World Bank to share assessments of countries’ troubles more quickly, provide more low-interest and grant funding and stricter timeframes on restructurings overall.

    The idea is that Beijing would then drop its insistence that the multilateral lenders take losses, or “haircuts”, on the loans they have provided or underwritten in crisis-hit countries.

    Beijing has not commented directly on the demand for multilateral lender haircuts, but in remarks published on Friday People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang reiterated China’s willingness to implement debt talks under the Common Framework, the platform introduced by leading G20 nations in 2020 to streamline talks with all creditors.

    “If the multilateral development banks are now making real commitments to provide fresh grants to distressed countries this is a breakthrough,” said Kevin Gallagher, director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Center.

    But he added that as the new plans lacked specific mention of China’s intentions it suggested the “lack of a strong and clear consensus” in Washington.

    The IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva has stressed that with around 15% of low income countries already in debt distress and dozens more in danger of falling into it, far more urgency is needed.

    Besides members of the Paris Club of creditor nations such as the United States, France and Japan, cash-strapped nations now have to rework loans with lenders such as India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Kuwait – but first and foremost China.

    Beijing is now the largest bilateral creditor to developing nations, extending $138 billion in new loans between 2010 and 2021, according to World Bank data, and some estimates put total lending at almost $850 billion.

    Reuters Graphics

    HEADWINDS

    Global headwinds are about to get stronger too.

    Financially weaker countries with “junk”-grade sovereign credit ratings need to repay or refinance $30 billion worth of government bonds next year between them, compared to just $8.4 billion for the remainder of this one.

    The rise in global borrowing costs, though, means that many countries under the greatest stress are now unable to borrow in the international capital markets or, if they can, only at unsustainably high interest rates.

    The Chinese debt, meanwhile, is often opaque and muddied by arguments about whether the loans have been given by “official” entities – i.e by the government – or by “private” entities.

    Authorities in Beijing also prefer to roll over debt payments rather than write them off, and given it is an increasingly dominant creditor, it has little incentive to follow co-operative Paris Club-like principles.

    “It would be great to have China on board (with the push to speed up restructurings) but I don’t really have high hopes because there is a lot of geopolitics involved,” said Viktor Szabo, an emerging market debt manager at Abrdn in London.

    Select IMF loans to low and middle income countries by date of Board approval

    COMMON PROBLEMS

    Recent research by Boston University estimated that up to $520 billion in debt needs to be written off to help developing nations at greatest risk of default return to a sounder fiscal footing.

    But lengthy delays in Zambia, and more recently in Sri Lanka, have elicited widespread criticism of the Common Framework.

    Wednesday’s promises by the IMF to provide its assessments more quickly was an admission that the Common Framework was currently failing, Szabo added.

    “You have to make it functional. The fact that it’s been in place for three years and there is nothing to really show for it, that is really appalling.”

    Anna Ashton, director of China research at Eurasia Group, said this week’s developments underscored the benefits for China to give some ground on some of its concerns.

    “Being willing to compromise and facilitate debt restructuring right now is likely crucial to China’s continued credibility with the developing world writ large,” Ashton said.

    Patrick Curran, senior economist with Tellimer, added that China dropping demands for the big multilateral development banks (MDBs) to swallow losses on their loans could also be “a major breakthrough”.

    “There is likely to be broad support for the alternative proposal that MDBs mobilize their resources more aggressively, especially at a time when most low-income countries are locked out of the market,” Curran said.

    Germany’s finance minister Christian Lindner on Thursday too said all the talk now needed to be converted into action.

    The group that took part in Wednesday’s roundtable plans to meet again in coming weeks to address remaining issues, including how various creditors are treated, principles for cut-off dates and suspending debt payments.

    Ultimately, whether the new terms help Zambia, and countries like Sri Lanka, Ghana and Ethiopia that are also in the midst of bailout talks, finalise deals will be the only proof of whether the new terms work.

    “China is a difficult partner to talk to but we need China at the table for the solution of debt problems, because otherwise we won’t see any progress,” Lindner said.

    Reuters Graphics

    Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York and Joe Cash in Beijing
    Editing by Mark Potter

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Host India doesn’t want G20 to discuss further Russia sanctions – sources

    Host India doesn’t want G20 to discuss further Russia sanctions – sources

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    BENGALURU, Feb 22 (Reuters) – India does not want the G20 to discuss additional sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine during New Delhi’s one-year presidency of the bloc, six senior Indian officials said on Wednesday, amid debate over how even to describe the conflict.

    On the sidelines of a G20 gathering in India, financial leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations will meet on Feb. 23, the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion, to discuss measures against Russia, Japan’s finance minister said on Tuesday.

    The officials, who are directly involved in this week’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank chiefs, said the economic impact of the conflict would be discussed but India did not want to consider additional actions against Russia.

    “India is not keen to discuss or back any additional sanctions on Russia during the G20,” said one of the officials. “The existing sanctions on Russia have had a negative impact on the world.”

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    Another official said sanctions were not a G20 issue. “G20 is an economic forum for discussing growth issues.”

    Spokespeople for the Indian government and the finance and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    On Wednesday, the first day of meetings to draft the G20 communique, officials struggled to find an acceptable word to describe the Russia-Ukraine conflict, delegates of at least seven countries present in the meetings said.

    India tried to form a consensus on the words by calling it a “crisis” or a “challenge” instead of a “war”, the officials said, but the discussions concluded without a decision.

    These discussions have been rolled over to Thursday when U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be part of the meetings.

    Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has previously said the war has disproportionately hit poorer countries by raising prices of fuel and food.

    India’s neighbours – Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh – have all sought loans from the International Monetary Fund in recent months to tide over economic troubles brought about by the pandemic and the war.

    U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Tuesday that Washington and its allies planned in coming days to impose new sanctions and export controls that would target Russia’s purchase of dual-use goods like refrigerators and microwaves to secure semiconductors needed for its military.

    The sanctions would also seek to do more to stem the trans-shipment of oil and other restricted goods through bordering countries.

    In addition, Adeyemo said officials from a coalition of more than 30 countries would warn companies, financial institutions and individuals still doing business with Russia that they faced sanctions.

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has not openly criticised Moscow for the invasion and instead called for dialogue and diplomacy to end the war. India has also sharply raised purchases of oil from Russia, its biggest supplier of defence hardware.

    Jaishankar told Reuters partner ANI this week that India’s relationship with Russia had been “extraordinarily steady and it has been steady through all the turbulence in global politics”.

    Additional reporting by Krishn Kaushik; Writing by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Nick Macfie

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Biden and Xi clash over Taiwan in Bali but Cold War fears cool

    Biden and Xi clash over Taiwan in Bali but Cold War fears cool

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    • Biden, Xi meet for 3 hours before G20
    • Both leaders stress need to get ties back on track
    • Indonesia seeks partnerships on global economy at G20
    • Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to address G20 on Tuesday

    NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 14 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping engaged in blunt talks over Taiwan and North Korea on Monday in a three-hour meeting aimed at preventing strained U.S.-China ties from spilling into a new Cold War.

    Amid simmering differences on human rights, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and support of domestic industry, the two leaders pledged more frequent communications. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Beijing for follow-up talks.

    “We’re going to compete vigorously. But I’m not looking for conflict, I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly,” Biden said after his talks with Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia.

    Beijing has long said it would bring the self-governed island of Taiwan, which it views as an inalienable part of China, under its control and has not ruled out the use of force to do so. It has frequently accused the United States in recent years of encouraging Taiwan independence.

    In a statement after their meeting, Xi called Taiwan the “first red line” that must not be crossed in U.S.-China relations, Chinese state media said.

    Biden said he sought to assure Xi that U.S. policy on Taiwan, which has for decades been to support both Beijing’s ‘One China’ stance and Taiwan’s military, had not changed.

    He said there was no need for a new Cold War, and that he did not think China was planning a hot one.

    “I do not think there’s any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan,” he told reporters.

    On North Korea, Biden said it was hard to know whether Beijing had any influence over Pyongyang weapons testing. “Well, first of all, it’s difficult to say that I am certain that China can control North Korea,” he said.

    Biden said he told Xi the United States would do what it needs to do to defend itself and allies South Korea and Japan, which could be “maybe more up in the face of China” though not directed against it.

    “We would have to take certain actions that would be more defensive on our behalf… to send a clear message to North Korea. We are going to defend our allies, as well as American soil and American capacity,” he said.

    Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said before the meeting that Biden would warn Xi about the possibility of enhanced U.S. military presence in the region, something Beijing is not keen to see.

    Beijing had halted a series of formal dialogue channels with Washington, including on climate change and military-to-military talks, after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi upset China by visiting Taiwan in August.

    Biden and Xi agreed to allow senior officials to renew communication on climate, debt relief and other issues, the White House said after they spoke.

    Xi’s statement after the talks included pointed warnings on Taiwan.

    “The Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations,” Xi was quoted as saying by Xinhua news agency.

    “Resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese and China’s internal affair,” Xi said, according to state media.

    Taiwan’s democratically elected government rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over it.

    Taiwan’s presidential office said it welcomed Biden’s reaffirmation of U.S. policy. “This also once again fully demonstrates that the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is the common expectation of the international community,” it said.

    SMILES AND HANDSHAKES

    Before their talks, the two leaders smiled and shook hands warmly in front of their national flags at a hotel on Indonesia’s Bali island, a day before a Group of 20 (G20) summit set to be fraught with tension over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    “It’s just great to see you,” Biden told Xi, as he put an arm around him before their meeting.

    Biden brought up a number of difficult topics with Xi, according to the White House, including raising U.S. objections to China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan,” Beijing’s “non-market economic practices,” and practices in “Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, and human rights more broadly.”

    Neither leader wore a mask to ward off COVID-19, although members of their delegations did.

    U.S.-China relations have been roiled in recent years by growing tensions over issues ranging from Hong Kong and Taiwan to the South China Sea, trade practices, and U.S. restrictions on Chinese technology.

    But U.S. officials said there have been quiet efforts by both Beijing and Washington over the past two months to repair relations.

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told reporters in Bali earlier that the meeting aimed to stabilise the relationship and to create a “more certain atmosphere” for U.S. businesses.

    She said Biden had been clear with China about national security concerns regarding restrictions on sensitive U.S. technologies and had raised concern about the reliability of Chinese supply chains for commodities.

    G20 summit host President Joko Widodo of Indonesia said he hoped the gathering on Tuesday could “deliver concrete partnerships that can help the world in its economic recovery”.

    However, one of the main topics at the G20 will be Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    Xi and Putin have grown close in recent years, bound by their shared distrust of the West, and reaffirmed their partnership just days before Russia invaded Ukraine. But China has been careful not to provide any direct material support that could trigger Western sanctions against it.

    Reporting by Nandita Bose, Stanley Widianto, Fransiska Nangoy, Leika Kihara, David Lawder and Simon Lewis in Nusa Dua, and Yew Lun Tian and Ryan Woo in Beijing; additional reporting by Jeff Mason and Steve Holland in Washington; Writing by Kay Johnson and Raju Gopalakrishnan; Editing by Angus MacSwan, Grant McCool, Heather Timmons and Rosalba O’Brien

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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