HONG KONG — World leaders expressed sadness and condolences after at least 151 people were killed in a crowd surge Saturday night in Seoul, South Korea.
The tragedy occurred in Seoul’s Itaewon district during Halloween festivities when a huge crowd surged into a narrow downhill alley. At least 82 others were injured in the South Korea’s deadliest accident in years.
U.S. President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden sent their “deepest condolences” to the families of the deceased.
“We grieve with the people of the Republic of Korea and wish for a quick recovery to all those who were injured,” said President Biden in a tweet. “The United States stands with the Republic of Korea during this tragic time.”
Similarly, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described the news from Seoul as “horrific” on Twitter.
“All our thoughts are with those currently responding and all South Koreans at this very distressing time,” Sunak wrote.
Itaewon’s international character was shaped by its proximity to a U.S. military garrison nearby. The area is still home to restaurants, bars and other businesses catering to the American community in Seoul.
U.S. Forces Korea, which commands the sizable American military presence in the country, expressed its condolences in a Facebook post.
“The Itaewon community has opened its arms to us for many years and is part of the reason our Alliance is so strong,” the command said, writing in English and Korean. “During this time of grief, we will be there for you just as you have been there for us.”
Pope Francis invited the crowd in St. Peter’s Square to pray for the victims.
“We pray the Risen Lord also for those — especially young people — who died last night in Seoul, due to the tragic consequences of a sudden crush,” Francis said after his Sunday’s Angelus prayer.
Leaders from countries including Japan, France, China and Singapore reacted with shock and sadness over the tragedy in Seoul.
“I’m hugely shocked and deeply saddened by the extremely tragic accident in Itaewon, Seoul, that took many precious lives, including those of young people with their future ahead of them,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in a tweet.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron — who tweeted in both French and in Korean — offered support to Seoul residents and South Korea.
“France is with you,” he said.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau echoed similar sentiments on Twitter, sending his “deepest condolences” to the people of South Korea “and wishing a fast and full recovery to those who were injured.”
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni tweeted: “Our thoughts are with the victims of the tragedy that occurred in Seoul and with their families. Italy is close to the Korean people at this time of great pain and deep sadness.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping also sent his condolences to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, expressing shock over the accident in Seoul, according to a statement by the Chinese foreign ministry.
Hong Kong leader John Lee, in a statement on Facebook, hoped for swift recoveries for those injured in the crush.
“I express profound sorrow over the passing of the victims, extend my deepest condolences to their families and wish for a speedy recovery to all those who were injured,” said Lee.
Prince William and his wife Kate also sent a message of condolence. The heir to the British throne said on social media: “Catherine and I send all our love and prayers to the parents, families and loved ones of those tragically lost in Seoul yesterday evening.”
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said she was “heartbroken” by the tragic news from Seoul.
“They were looking for a night of lighthearted Halloween festivities but instead found real horror and death,” said Baerbock. “My thoughts are with the victims, their friends and families, and those who still fear for their loved ones.”
“This is a sad day for South Korea. Germany stands by their side,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a tweet.
Singapore’s President Halimah Yacob described the loss of lives as “tragic” and said it was “hard to imagine” the trauma and grief experienced by the families, loved ones and friends of those affected.
“My thoughts and prayers are with the people of South Korea during this difficult time, and I wish a quick and full recovery to all those who are injured,” she said.
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Associated Press journalists from around the world contributed to this report.
THE HAGUE, Netherlands — China has reportedly established dozens of “overseas police stations” in nations around the world that activists fear could be used to track and harass dissidents as part of Beijing’s crackdown on corruption.
Information about the outposts underscored concerns about the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s influence over its citizens abroad, sometimes in ways deemed illegal by other countries, as well as the undermining of democratic institutions and the the theft of economic and political secrets by bodies affiliated with the one-party state.
Spanish-based non-government group Safeguard Defenders published a report last month, called “110 Overseas. Chinese Transnational Policing Gone Wild,” that focused on the foreign stations.
Laura Harth, a campaign director with the group, told The Associated Press that China has set up at least 54 overseas police service stations.
“One of the aims of these campaigns, obviously, as it is to crack down on dissent, is to silence people,” Harth said. “So people are afraid. People that are being targeted, that have family members back in China, are afraid to speak out.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Thursday that Beijing wasn’t doing anything wrong. “Chinese public security authorities strictly observe the international law and fully respect the judicial sovereignty of other countries,” Mao said.
Many of the facilities appeared to have links to the Fuzhou and Qingtian areas, where many overseas Chinese originate.
The Irish government said it told China to close a Fuzhou Police Overseas Service Station operating in Dublin. The Department of Foreign Affairs said Chinese authorities did not make an advance request to set up the office.
“Actions of all foreign states on Irish territory must be in compliance with international law and domestic law requirements,” the Irish government said, noting why it had told the Chinese Embassy that the office “should close and cease operations.”
“The Chinese Embassy has now stated that the activities of the office have ceased,” it said.
The Dutch government said this week it was looking into whether two such police stations — one a virtual office in Amsterdam and the other at a physical address in Rotterdam — were established in the Netherlands.
“We are investigating the activities of these so-called police centers. Once there is more clarity on the matter, we will decide on appropriate action,” the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement sent to the AP. “We have not been informed about these centers via diplomatic channels.”
Another Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, described the foreign outposts identified by Safeguard Defenders as service stations for Chinese people who are abroad and in need of help with, for instance, renewing their driver’s licenses.
Wang added that China also has cracked down on what he called transnational crimes but said the operation was conducted in line with international law.
In its report, Safeguard Defenders reproduced Chinese media accounts about people suspected of alleged crimes in China being interrogated by video link from some of the locations in other countries that Beijing allegedly did not declare to other governments.
In one instance, according to the group, a Chinese man accused of environmental crimes was persuaded in 2020 to return from Madrid to Qingtian, in Zhejiang province, where he turned himself in to authorities.
Visits by The Associated Press to some of the locations identified by Safeguard Defenders in Rome, Madrid and Barcelona found, respectively, a massage parlor, the Spanish headquarters of an association of citizens from Qingtian and a firm providing legal translation services. There was no indication of police stations or other activity directly related to the Chinese government.
A worker at the Barcelona translation company confirmed to the AP that a Fuzhou Police Overseas Service Station operated on the premises for a few weeks this year in a test-drive capacity.
The employee, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to journalists, the press, said the police service center offered document renewal services to Fuzhou citizens living in the Barcelona region who could not return to China due to pandemic travel restrictions and the high cost of flights.
According to Safeguard Defenders, China claims 230,000 suspects of fraud were “persuaded to return” to China from April 2021 to July 2022.
“These operations eschew official bilateral police and judicial cooperation and violate the international rule of law, and may violate the territorial integrity of third countries involved in setting up a parallel policing mechanism using illegal methods,” its report said.
The European Union’s executive arm said Thursday it was up to member countries to investigate such allegations since it would be a matter of national sovereignty.
A Hungarian opposition lawmaker claimed this month to have discovered two sites in Budapest where Chinese overseas police stations operated without the knowledge of the country’s Interior Ministry.
The lawmaker, Marton Tompos, said one of the two locations in Hungary’s capital had a sign that said Qingtian Overseas Police Station. Tompos said he was unable to contact anyone affiliated with the sites and that when he visited again days later, the sign had been removed.
The Hungarian Interior Ministry did not immediately respond to AP questions on the matter.
Three informal Chinese police stations are operating in Portugal, Safeguard Defenders reported. Portuguese authorities did not immediately reply to AP questions about the claim.
A Portuguese TV report said one of the venues, located in an industrial complex in northern Portugal, appeared to be a car shop operated by a Chinese man. The man denied any connection with the Chinese government, though broadcaster S.I.C. Noticias showed him in a video promoting the Beijing Winter Olympics and said he heads a local association that helps Chinese immigrants.
In Tanzania, both police and the Chinese Embassy have denied the presence of a Chinese-run police station in the country’s commercial hub and former capital, Dar es Salaam, after the BBC reported on it last week.
“You are fabricating stories,” the embassy tweeted, calling the report an example of disinformation aimed at dividing China-Africa relations. A police spokesman sent the AP a copy of China’s denial in response to questions Thursday.
In Lesotho, a kingdom in southern Africa, national police Senior Superintendent Mpiti Mopeli also denied the existence of any Chinese law enforcement activities. He said such operations would be illegal as any form of policing in Lesotho is conducted by local authorities.
Over his decade in power, Chinese President Xi Jinping has pushed a relentless anti-corruption drive that has seen tens of millions of Communist Party cadres investigated and expanded overseas via a pair of campaigns known as Sky Net and Fox Hunt. Both are tasked with locating allegedly corrupt officials who have fled abroad and convincing them to return to China with their stolen state assets.
Since China began opening up in the 1980s, corruption has been a major problem among those enjoying access to state funds and resources with few safeguards in place, and cash was often squirreled away abroad, particularly in the U.S. and other countries without extradition treaties with China.
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Herbert Moyo in Maseru, Lesotho, Cara Anna in Nairobi, Kenya, Francesco Sportelli and Maria Grazia Murru in Rome, Justin Spike in Budapest, Renata Brito in Barcelona, Aritz Parra in Madrid, Barry Hatton in Lisbon, Samuel Petrequin in Brussels, Jill Lawless in London and AP reporters in China contributed to this story.
TOKYO — Officials from the United States and its Asian allies Japan and South Korea suspect North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test, and vice foreign ministers from the three countries said Wednesday their joint response would be “decisive.”
Cho Hyundong, South Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister, said the trio is bolstering their defense cooperation to deter the growing possibility of North Korea’s use of nuclear weapons since the adoption in September of legislation spelling out scenarios where it would use nukes, including preemptively.
North Korea’s new nuclear policy is “creating a serious tension on the Korean Peninsula,” Cho told a joint news conference after talks with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Takeo Mori.
“South Korea and the U.S. will step up their extended deterrence by utilizing all the elements of the national power and show an overwhelming, decisive response to any use of a nuclear weapon by North Korea,” Cho said.
In 2022 alone, North Korea has launched more than 20 ballistic missiles at unprecedented pace, including one that overflew northern Japan in early October. It has also fired a barrage of artilleries toward the south in response to South Korea’s joint military exercises with the United States, which Pyongyang views as a practice to invade the country.
Sherman, during her meeting with Cho on Tuesday ahead of the three-way talks, criticized North Korea’s military actions as “irresponsible, dangerous and destabilizing” and said the United States will fully use its military capabilities, including nuclear, as she warned North Korea against escalating its provocations.
Sherman stressed again Wednesday that the cooperation among the three countries are “ironclad,” citing signs of Japan and South Korea improving their troubled ties over historical wartime-related disputes.
“There is so much we can achieve and are achieving when our countries work together,” Sherman said.
It was the second in-person meeting of the three officials since conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol took office in May, signaling an improvement in difficult ties between Tokyo and Seoul. A year ago in Washington, Japanese and South Korean vice ministers declined to participate in a joint news conference after their talks, leaving Sherman to make a solo media appearance.
The three officials also condemned Russia’s nuclear threat, as well as any other escalation of threats, and its unsubstantiated allegation that Ukraine was preparing to launch a so-called dirty bomb — which uses explosives to scatter radioactive waste — as unacceptable.
Mori said the three officials also agreed to closely watch China’s maritime activity in the East and South China Seas and the situation in the Taiwan Strait under Chinese President Xi Jinping’s third term.
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BERLIN/PARIS — Relations are now so icy between Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz, the leaders of the EU’s two economic powerhouses, that they are even struggling to agree on whether to be seen together in front of the press.
As the French president and German chancellor prepared for a tête-à-tête in Paris on Wednesday, Berlin announced that they would make a joint appearance in front of the cameras, which is normally the driest of routine diplomatic courtesies after bilateral meetings.
But on Tuesday evening, a statement from the French Elysée Palace contradicted the German announcement, saying there was no press conference planned.
If confirmed, it would be quite a snub for Scholz, who’s traveling with an entire press corps to Paris, and from there continuing to Athens for another state visit. Denying a press conference to a visiting leader is a political tactic that’s generally applied to deliver a rebuke, as was recently done by Scholz when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visited Berlin.
“Presumably, there has so far been a lack of contact and exchange between the respective new government teams of Scholz and Macron,” said Sandra Weeser from Germany’s liberal Free Democratic Party, who sits on the board of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly. “So, we are certainly also at the beginning of new interpersonal political relations, for which trust must first be built.”
The tussle over a media show is just the latest episode of a deepening row between the EU’s two biggest powers.
In recent weeks, Scholz and Macron have clashed over how to tackle the energy crisis, how to overcome Europe’s impotence on defense and the best approach to dealing with China.
Last week, those tensions spilled into public when a planned Franco-German Cabinet meeting in the French town of Fontainebleau was postponed to January amid major differences on the text of a joint declaration, as well as conflicting holiday plans of some German ministers. Disagreement between the two governments was also broadly visible at last week’s EU summit in Brussels.
As Scholz and Macron meet in Paris on Wednesday for a “working lunch,” which has been hastily set up as a downgraded replacement for the scrapped Cabinet meeting, politicians and officials across Europe will be closely watching to see whether the bloc’s two heavyweights can find a way back to much-needed unity. The war in Ukraine and the inflation and energy crisis have strained European alliances, just when they are most needed.
French officials complain that Berlin isn’t sufficiently treating them as a close partner. For example, the French claim they weren’t briefed in advance of Germany’s domestic €200 billion energy price relief package — and they have made sure their counterparts in Berlin are aware of their frustration.
“In my talks with French parliamentarians, it has become clear that people in Paris want more and closer coordination with Germany,” said Chantal Kopf, a lawmaker from the Greens, one of the three parties in Germany’s ruling coalition, and a board member of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly.
“So far, this cooperation has always worked well in times of crisis — think, for example, of the recovery fund during the coronavirus crisis — and now the French also rightly want the responses to the current energy crisis, or how to deal with China, to be closely coordinated,” Kopf said.
Late last month, Paris felt snubbed by Berlin when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz found no time to speak to French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne | Jens Schlueter/AFP via Getty Images
A similar conclusion is being drawn by Weeser from the FDP, another coalition partner in the Berlin government. “Paris is irritated by Germany’s go-it-alone on the gas price brake and the lack of support for joint European defense technology projects,” she said. At the same time, she accused the French government of having until recently dragged its feet on a new pipeline connection between the Iberian peninsula and Northern Europe.
Unprecedented tensions
Most recently, the French government was irritated by the news that Scholz plans to visit Beijing next week to meet Xi Jinping in what would be the first visit by a foreign leader since the Chinese president got a norm-breaking third term. Germany and China also plan their own show when it comes to planned government consultations in January.
The thinking at the Elysée is that it would have been better if Macron and Scholz had visited China together — and preferably a bit later rather than straight after China’s Communist Party congress where Xi secured another mandate. According to one French official, a visit shortly after the congress would “legitimize” Xi’s third term and be “too politically costly.”
Germany and France’s uncoordinated approach to China contrasts with Xi’s last visit to Europe in 2019 when he was welcomed by Macron, who had also invited former Chancellor Angela Merkel and former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to Paris to show European unity.
Macron has refrained from directly criticizing a controversial Hamburg port deal with Chinese company Cosco, which Scholz is pushing ahead of his Beijing trip. But the French president last week questioned the wisdom of letting China invest in “essential infrastructure” and warned that Europe had been “naive” toward Chinese purchases in the past “because we thought Europe was an open supermarket.”
Jean-Louis Thiériot, vice president of the defense committee in the French National Assembly, said Germany was increasingly focusing on defense in Eastern Europe at the expense of joint German-French projects. For example, Berlin inked a deal with 13 NATO members, many of them on the Northern and Eastern European flank, to jointly acquire an air and missile defense shield — much to the annoyance of France.
“The situation is unprecedented,” Thiériot said. “Tensions are now getting worse and quickly. In the last couple of months, Germany decided to end work on the [Franco-German] Tiger helicopter, dropped joint navy patrols … And the signature of the air defense shield is a deathblow [to the defense relationship],” he said.
Germany’s massive investment through a €100 billion military upgrade fund, as well as Scholz’s commitment to the NATO goal of putting 2 percent of GDP toward defense spending, will likely raise the annual defense budget to above €80 billion and means Berlin will be on course to outgun France’s €44 billion defense budget.
Sick note
Last week’s suspension of the joint Franco-German Cabinet meeting wasn’t by far the first clash between Berlin and Paris when it comes to high-level meetings.
Back in August, the question was whether Scholz and Macron would meet in Ludwigsburg on September 9 for the 60th anniversary of a famous speech by former French President Charles de Gaulle in the palatial southwestern German town. But despite the highly symbolic nature of that ceremony, the leaders’ meeting never happened — with officials presenting conflicting accounts of why that was the case, from appointment conflicts to alleged disagreements over who should shoulder the costs.
French President Emmanuel Macron has refrained from directly criticizing a controversial Hamburg port deal with Chinese company Cosco | Pool photo by Aurelien Morissard/AFP via Getty Images
Late last month, Paris felt snubbed by Berlin when Scholz found no time to speak to French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne: A meeting between both leaders in Berlin had been canceled because the chancellor had tested positive for coronavirus. But several French officials told POLITICO that a subsequently arranged videoconference was also canceled, allegedly because the Germans told Borne’s office that Scholz felt too sick.
Paris was even more surprised — and annoyed — when Scholz then appeared the same day via video at a press conference, in which he didn’t seem to be quite so sick, but instead confidently announced his €200 billion energy relief package. The French say they weren’t even briefed beforehand. A German spokesperson could not be reached for a comment on the incident.
Yannick Bury, a lawmaker from Germany’s center-right opposition who focuses on Franco-German relations, said Scholz must use his visit to Paris to start rebuilding ties with Macron. “It’s important that France receives a clear signal that Germany has a great interest in a close and trusting exchange,” Bury said. “Trust has been broken.”
TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan won’t back down in the face of “aggressive threats” from China, the president of the self-governing island democracy Tsai Ing-wen said Tuesday, comparing growing pressure from Beijing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tsai’s comments follow the conclusion of the twice-a-decade congress of China’s Communist Party at which it upped its long-standing threat to annex the island it considers its own territory by force if necessary.
The party added a line into its constitution on “resolutely opposing and deterring” Taiwan’s independence “resolutely implementing the policy of ‘one country, two systems,'” the formula by which it plans to govern the island in future.
The blueprint has already been put in place in the former British colony of Hong Kong, which has seen its democratic system, civil liberties and judicial independence decimated.
Speaking to an international gathering of pro-democracy activists in Taipei, Tsai said democracies and liberal societies were facing the greatest host of challenges since the Cold War.
“Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is a prime example. It shows an authoritarian regime will do whatever it takes to achieve expansionism,” Tsai said.
“The people of Taiwan are all too familiar with such aggression. In recent years, Taiwan has been confronted by increasingly aggressive threats from China,” she said, listing military intimidation, cyber attacks and economic coercion among them.
The rising Chinese threat has spurred calls on Taiwan for additional defense investments and a lengthening of the term of national service required of all Taiwanese men.
“However, even under constant threats, the people of Taiwan have never shied away from the challenges” and have fought to work against authoritarian forces looking to undermine their democratic way of life, Tsai said.
Tsai was speaking at the opening ceremony of the World Movement for Democracy’s Steering Committee, which is chaired by 2021 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa.
Taiwan and China split amid civil war in 1949 and Taipei enjoys strong U.S. military and political support, despite the lack of formal military ties.
Despite having just 14 official diplomatic allies, Taiwan has drawn increasing backing from major nations, including Japan, Australia, the U.S., Canada and across Europe.
A recent visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi enraged Beijing, which responded with military exercises seen as a rehearsal of a blockade of the island.
On Monday, Tsai met with a German parliamentary delegation focusing on human rights, who expressed concern about how Taiwan would handle threats from China.
“Taiwan is really facing military threats,” delegation head Peter Heidt said. “From Germany’s point of view, changes to the cross-strait status quo, if any, must be based on peaceful means. Also, these changes must be made after both sides have reached a consensus.”
Also on Tuesday, Taiwanese Premier You Si-kun was meeting with Ukrainian lawmaker Kira Rudik and Lithuanian politician Zygimantas Pavilionis. Taiwan has strongly condemned the Russian invasion and at least one Taiwanese citizen is reportedly fighting with Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainian conflict has focused new attention on if and when China might launch military action against Taiwan, given that a solid majority of Taiwanese reject Beijing’s calls for “peaceful reunification.”
A full-scale invasion across the 160-kilometer (100-mile) -wide Taiwan Strait remains a daunting prospect for China despite its recent massive military expansion, especially in its naval and missile forces.
However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s securing of another five-year term in office has some observers speculating he may be looking to move up the schedule for bringing Taiwan under China’s control.
Among personnel changes at China’s congress that concluded Saturday, Gen. He Weidong was elevated to second vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. He was formerly head of the Eastern Theater Command, which would be primarily responsible for operations against Taiwan should hostilities break out.
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In trading outside of mainland China, the yuan briefly plunged to around 7.36 per dollar early Tuesday, the lowest level on record, according Refinitiv, which has data going back to 2010. It then pared losses, trading at 7.33 by 1 pm Hong Kong time.
On the tightly managed domestic market, the yuan also dropped sharply on Tuesday, hitting the weakest level in nearly 15 years.
The declines came alongside a historic market rout for Chinese assets worldwide. On Monday, Chinese stocks plummeted in Hong Kong and New York, wiping out billions of dollars in their market value. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng
(HSI) Index closed down 6.4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also dived more than 14%. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng
(HSI) rebounded slightly, up 0.8% by noon.
The huge sell-offs came just days after the ruling Communist Party unveiled its new leadership for the next five years. In addition to securing an unprecedented third term as party chief, Xi packed his new leadership team with staunch loyalists.
A number of senior officials who have backed market reforms and opening up the economy were missing from the new top team, stirring concerns about the future direction of the country and its relations with the United States.
International investors spooked by the outcome of the Communist Party’s leadership reshuffle dumped Chinese assets despite the release of stronger-than-expected GDP data. They’re worried that Xi’s tightening grip on power will lead to the continuation of Beijing’s existing policies and further dent the economy.
China’s leadership reshuffle “sparked worries about the continuation of market-unfavourable policies and increasing risk of policy mistakes under President Xi’s power domination in coming years,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian forex strategist at Mizuho Bank.
“Foreign investors took action to cut their exposure on Chinese assets,” he said, adding that the Chinese currency was faced with mounting capital outflow pressure.
The Chinese yuan, together with other major global currencies, has weakened rapidly against the dollar in recent months. The greenback has surged to the highest level in two decades against a basket of major counterparts, boosted by a hawkish Fed that attempts to contain runaway inflation.
So far this year, the yuan has slumped more than 15% against the dollar, on track to log its worst year since 1994 — whenChina devalued its currency by 33% overnight as part of market reforms.
LONDON — It took one bruising campaign defeat and six weeks of exile — but on Tuesday, Rishi Sunak will finally become U.K. prime minister.
He faces the toughest in-tray of any British leader since World War II, entering No. 10 Downing Street as the country hurtles into winter with energy bills, hospital waiting lists, borrowing costs and inflation all soaring.
The challenge has been magnified by Liz Truss’ brief crash-and-burn premiership. As a result of her now-infamous mini-budget, which was scrapped almost in its entirety after causing chaos in financial markets, the Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour Party by over 30 percentage points in opinion polls.
On Monday, Sunak told MPs he was ready to hit the ground running as he addressed them for the first time since becoming Tory leader. Over the days and months ahead, he will need to carry out his first ministerial reshuffle without further fracturing his party; oversee the first budget since the last one wreaked havoc on the economy; and determine what support to offer voters with their energy bills past this spring.
Prime ministers tend to think of their first 100 days as a way to set the tone for their premierships. For Sunak, who has just over two years to govern before he is required to face a general election, that first impression is going to be particularly important.
October 25 — Meeting with the king and first speech outside No. 10 Downing Street
Sunak will become the prime minister Tuesday after an audience with King Charles III, where he will ask the monarch for permission to form a government.
Sunak will then address the country for the first time as prime minister from the steps outside No. 10 Downing Street at around 11.35 a.m.
To much of the British public, the former chancellor is a familiar face who announced the wildly-popular furlough scheme during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
His task now will be to reassure people that the government will support them during another difficult economic period — only this time he is in a much tougher position. The popularity he gained during the pandemic has waned, and he is taking over after a major government crisis — the third Tory prime minister to hold office within three months.
October 25 — First reshuffle
The first big political test for Sunak will be his Cabinet reshuffle. Tory MPs believe he will learn the lesson from Truss’ first and only one, where she divvied up roles between her allies and left almost everyone who didn’t back her out in the cold.
“I think his reshuffle will be more unifying, bringing in people from all wings and will not be as destabilizing as Liz’s,” an MP who did not back Sunak predicted.
Sunak’s leadership rival Penny Mordaunt is expected to be handed a major Cabinet position | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
Sunak is likely to make at least his major Cabinet appointments Tuesday afternoon, so they are in place to line up alongside him on the House of Commons’ front bench when MPs grill him during so-called prime minister’s questions (PMQs) on Wednesday.
His biggest decision will be whether to keep Jeremy Hunt — who was drafted in by Truss in a last-ditch effort to save her premiership — as chancellor. He is also likely to hand a big job to his leadership rival Penny Mordaunt.
Close Sunak allies who are likely to get promotions include Mel Stride, the current chairman of the Treasury select committee, Craig Williams, Claire Coutinho and Laura Trott. Tory big beast Michael Gove could see a return to Cabinet.
October 26 — First PMQs
Sunak will go head-to-head as prime minister with Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, for the first time on Wednesday.
Unlike his predecessor, Sunak won’t have much to worry about from his own side — Tory MPs have largely rowed behind him since he became their leader on Monday, with many expressing relief that the perpetual state of crisis of the Truss government has ended.
But MPs will want him to demonstrate that he can land blows against Starmer at a time when Labour is streets ahead in the polls. Sunak told Tory MPs on Tuesday that their party faced an “existential threat” as a result of its low poll ratings.
October 28 — Deadline to form a government in Belfast
If a power-sharing arrangement is not in place at Stormont by Friday, a fresh set of elections to the Northern Irish assembly will have to be triggered.
Calling these elections — the second set in seven months — could be one of the Sunak government’s first acts and an indication of successive Tory prime ministers’ failure to deal with the political crisis in Northern Ireland.
The Democratic Unionist Party issued a fresh warning on Monday night that it would not participate in the assembly unless Sunak takes action on the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol agreed with the EU.
October 31 — First budget
The next budget was penciled in for October 31 by Kwasi Kwarteng, the Truss-era chancellor who wanted to use it to reassure financial markets still reeling from his last one.
The timing of the budget — widely derided by Tory MPs because of the optics of holding it on Halloween — was intended to give the Bank of England time to react before its own key meeting on November 3, where it will set interest rate levels for the weeks ahead.
In its biggest test so far, Sunak’s government will have to decide whether to stick with that date; what actions to take to reassure the markets; and how to fill the enormous hole in the U.K. public finances.
Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said: “If his chancellor is Jeremy Hunt and Sunak is comfortable with the way things are proceeding for next Monday, then going ahead has lots of advantages.
“You get the announcement out before the Bank of England makes its next inflation figure, and you get the Office for Budgetary Responsibility forecasts out there, which helps show the markets you are serious about them.
“The case for changing that date is much stronger if Sunak says, ‘Actually, I want to do something different to what Jeremy Hunt has been planning, and I need more time,’” Emmerson added.
November 3 — Bank of England rates meeting
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is expected to raise interest rates at its meeting on November 3, triggering a fresh hike in people’s mortgages.
This is the point when many people will realize for the first time that they will have to make much larger mortgage repayments once their current fixed-rate deals come to an end.
Sunak made combating inflation and keeping mortgages low a central theme of his leadership campaign over the summer. Reacting to the rates decision and ensuring the government works closely with the Bank of England to combat inflation will be a key test of his premiership.
November 6 — COP27 summit in Egypt
Sunak made a point of telling Tory MPs on Tuesday that he is committed to the U.K.’s goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The question now is whether he attends the COP27 climate summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. Truss reportedly planned to go, despite her skepticism of aspects of the net-zero agenda.
If Sunak does go to Egypt, it could be his first foreign trip in office (unless he decides to make a quick visit to Ukraine beforehand) and his first opportunity to present himself on the world stage.
November 8 — Boundary changes
The Boundary Commission for England will publish its new constituency map on November 8.
At this point, some Tory MPs will know with near certainty that their constituencies are being carved up between neighboring areas, with some forced to jostle with colleagues over who will get to stand where.
It will be a political headache for Sunak to deal with, and any MPs whose safe seats become marginal will sense their political careers coming to an end — and will have less of an incentive to support him in key votes in the months ahead.
November 13 — G20 meeting in Indonesia
The next big foreign trip coming down the track is the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.
The meeting will be an opportunity for Western powers to present a united front against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and against China’s increased aggression toward Taiwan, but also to hold talks behind closed doors. There have been reports that both China’s Xi Jinping and Russian Vladimir Putin will attend.
Sophia Gaston, the head of foreign policy at the Policy Exchange think tank, said this was shaping up to be “one of the most extraordinary summits of modern history, with a violent war raging in Ukraine and the leading protagonist, Vladimir Putin, on the guest list alongside other autocratic leaders and outraged democratic allies.”
“As well as promoting free trade and the rules-based international order, Sunak would likely see the G20 as an opportunity to build support for his proposed ‘NATO-style’ technology alliance,” Gaston said. “He may well also debut a new U.K. message on the net-zero transition.”
Late November or early December — Chester by-election
Labour whips are preparing to trigger a by-election in the city of Chester in late November or December.
The by-election is taking place because the city’s MP Christian Matheson resigned after a parliamentary watchdog recommended he be suspended for sexual misconduct.
Matheson sits on a 6,164-vote majority, and the seat has traditionally been a swing seat flipping between the Tories and Labour. It was Conservative up until 2010.
Based on current polling figures, Labour should win a significantly larger majority than it currently has, though by-elections do suffer from small turnouts and so unexpected results are not uncommon. A dramatic Tory defeat would set alarm bells ringing in the party.
Another by-election could be triggered in the coming months if, as expected, Boris Johnson elevates his ally and MP Nadine Dorries to the House of Lords in his resignation honors. That would likely be the first by-election in a Tory-held seat fought with Sunak as party leader.
December 31 — U.K. deadline for joining trans-Pacific trade bloc
The U.K. government has said it hopes to conclude negotiations on joining the CPTPP — a trade agreement signed by 11 countries including Australia and New Zealand — by the end of the year.
Securing this deal was one of Truss’ priorities. For Sunak it would represent both a concrete foreign policy achievement and an indication that the U.K. is successfully building closer diplomatic ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific after Brexit.
Talks around the partnership have thrown up some diplomatic obstacles, with China reacting angrily to U.K. trade officials meeting Taiwanese counterparts. Both China and Taiwan have applied to join the CPTPP.
There have been suggestions that the evidence against him is so damning that Johnson could face temporary suspension from parliament or even be kicked out as an MP. The inquiry may have formed part of Johnson’s decision not to stand for the Tory leadership contest.
If the privileges committee says Johnson should be sanctioned once it concludes its inquiry, Sunak will have to judge his response and decide whether to whip Tory MPs to back its recommendations even if that provokes Johnson’s ire. There is also the risk that Sunak himself will be dragged into the probe, given he too was fined over the Partygate scandal.
Among other things, the probe will examine the impact of the economic policies that Sunak designed as chancellor during the pandemic, putting his decisions under scrutiny.
His “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme — which encouraged people to dine in restaurants during the post-lockdown summer of 2020 — could become a focus, with critics claiming it drove up coronavirus-related infections and deaths.
February — Energy support nears its end
By the time Sunak’s first 100 days are up, there will be pressure on the government to explain how it will support people with their energy bills past the spring if wholesale gas prices haven’t drastically fallen. Hunt has already rolled back the Truss government’s two-year guarantee and instead capped people’s energy bills at an average of £2,500 for just six months. That policy ends in April.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Emmerson said: “We’ve got a big generous offer from the government through this winter — although prices are still a lot higher than they were last year, they will be nowhere near as high as they would have otherwise been.
“The prime minister and chancellor will spend a lot of time thinking about how they replace that scheme. In some ways, it’s very similar to the kind of furlough scheme that Sunak had during the pandemic — very generous, big scheme with lots of crude edges to it,” he said.
“It’s understandable wanting to get in place quickly to support people, but how do you get out of it? Do it too quickly and that’s too much pain for too many people — keep it in place for too long, and that’s very expensive to the government.”
It’s just one of so many enormous decisions the new PM faces in his first 100 days.
Foreign investors spooked by the outcome of the Communist Party’s leadership reshuffle dumped Chinese equities and the yuan despite the release of stronger-than-expected GDP data. They’re worried that Xi’s tightening grip on power will lead to the continuation of Beijing’s existing policies and further dent the economy.
Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng
(HSI) Index plunged 6.4% on Monday, marking its biggest daily drop since November 2008. The index closed at its lowest level since April 2009.
The Chinese yuan weakened sharply, hitting a fresh 14-year low against the US dollar on the onshore market. On the offshore market, where it can trade more freely, the currency tumbled 0.8%, hovering near its weakest level on record, even as the Chinese economy grew 3.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 3.4%.
The sharp sell-off came one day after the ruling Communist Party unveiled its new leadership for the next five years. In addition to securing an unprecedented third term as party chief, Xi packed his new leadership team with staunch loyalists.
A number of senior officials who have backed market reforms and opening up the economy were missing from the new top team, stirring concerns about the future direction of the country and its relations with the United States. Those pushed aside included Premier Li Keqiang, Vice Premier Liu He, and central bank governor Yi Gang.
“It appears that the leadership reshuffle spooked foreign investors to offload their Chinese investment, sparking heavy sell-offs in Hong Kong-listed Chinese equities,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian forex strategist at Mizuho bank.
The GDP data marked a pick-up from the 0.4% increase in the second quarter, when China’s economy was battered by widespread Covid lockdowns. Shanghai, the nation’s financial center and a key global trade hub, was shut down for two months in April and May. But the growth rate was still below the annual official target that the government set earlier this year.
“The outlook remains gloomy,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics, in a research report on Monday.
“There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-Covid policy in the near future, and we don’t expect any meaningful relaxation before 2024,” he added.
Coupled with a further weakening in the global economy and a persistent slump in China’s real estate, all the headwinds will continue to pressure the Chinese economy, he said.
Evans-Pritchard expected China’s official GDP to grow by only 2.5% this year and by 3.5% in 2023.
Monday’s GDP data were initially scheduled for release on October 18 during the Chinese Communist Party’s congress, but were postponed without explanation.
The possibility that policies such as zero-Covid, which has resulted in sweeping lockdowns to contain the virus, and “Common Prosperity” — Xi’s bid to redistribute wealth — could be escalated was causing concern, Cheung said.
“With the Politburo Standing Committee composed of President Xi’s close allies, market participants read the implications as President Xi’s power consolidation and the policy continuation,” he added.
Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, also pointed out that the disappearance of pro-reform officials from the new leadership bodes ill for the future of China’s private sector.
“The departure of perceived pro-stimulus officials and reformers from the Politburo Standing Committee and replacement with allies of Xi, suggests that ‘Common Prosperity’ will be the overriding push of officials,” Kotecha said.
Under the banner of the “Common Prosperity” campaign, Beijing launched a sweeping crackdown on the country’s private enterprise, which shook almost every industry to its core.
“The [market] reaction in our view is consistent with the reduced prospects of significant stimulus or changes to zero-Covid policy. Overall, prospects of a re-acceleration of growth are limited,” Kotecha said.
On the tightly controlled domestic market in China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2%. The tech-heavy Shenzhen Component Index lost 2.1%.
The Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the 30 largest technology firms listed in Hong Kong, plunged 9.7%.
Shares of Alibaba
(BABA) and Tencent
(TCEHY) — the crown jewels of China’s technology sector — both plummeted more than 11%, wiping a combined $54 billion off their stock market value.
The sell-off spilled over into the United States as well. Shares of Alibaba and several other leading Chinese stocks trading in New York, such as EV companies Nio
(NIO) and Xpeng, Alibaba rivals JD.com
(JD) and Pinduoduo
(PDD) and search engine Baidu
(BIDU), were all down sharply Thursday afternoon.
BEIJING (AP) — China’s economic growth picked up in the latest quarter but still was among the weakest in decades as the ruling Communist Party tries to reverse a slump while enforcing anti-virus controls and a crackdown on debt in its vast real estate industry.
The world’s second-largest economy grew by 3.9% over a year earlier in the three months ending in September, up from the previous quarter’s 0.4%, official data showed Monday.
The announcement was planned for last week but postponed while the ruling Communist Party met to award President Xi Jinping a new term as leader.
Xi, the most powerful leader in decades, wants a bigger party role in business and technology development. That has prompted warnings tighter control of entrepreneurs who generate jobs and wealth will depress growth that already was in long-term decline.
The party gave Xi a free hand by installing a seven-member ruling Standing Committee made up of his allies. Supporters of free enterprise including Premier Li Keqiang, the party’s No. 2 until last week, were dropped from the leadership.
Chinese stock markets closed lower Monday despite the unexpectedly strong data, suggesting investors still are uneasy about the country’s growth prospects.
The country’s market benchmark, the Shanghai Composite Index, lost more than 2%. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong plunged by an unusually wide daily margin of 6.4%. Tokyo and other Asian markets gained.
The International Monetary Fund and private sector forecasters say the economy will expand by as little as 3% this year. That would be the second weakest since the 1980s after 2020, when growth plunged to 2.4% at the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
Investors and the public watched the congress for initiatives to stimulate the economy or reduce the impact of “Zero COVID” controls that shut down cities and disrupt business, but none were announced.
The latest slide in growth that began in mid-2021 hurts China’s trading partners by depressing demand for imported oil, food and consumer goods.
The improvement is “mainly a result of more flexible” anti-virus controls that isolate individual buildings or neighborhoods instead of cities, said Iris Pang of ING in a report. But she said more lockdowns are “still a big uncertainty.”
“This uncertainty means the effectiveness of pro-growth policy would be undermined,” Pang said.
Growth slid after controls on debt that regulators worry is dangerously high caused a slump in real estate sales and construction, one of China’s biggest economic engines. Economic growth fell to 4% over a year earlier in the final quarter.
Beijing has eased mortgage lending and local governments have taken over some unfinished projects to make sure buyers get apartments. But regulators are sticking to debt limits have forced small developers into bankruptcy and caused some bigger competitors to miss payments to bondholders.
The ruling party is enforcing “Zero COVID” despite rising costs and public frustration after Shanghai and other industrial centers were temporarily shut down. That has boiled over into protests in some areas at a time when other countries are easing anti-virus controls.
For the first nine months of 2022, growth was 3% over a year earlier, up from 2.5% in the first six months but barely half the ruling party’s official 5.5% target. Leaders have stopped talking about that goal but promised easier lending and other measures to boost growth.
Growth is “highly uneven” and supported by government spending on building roads and other public works while consumer spending is weakening, said Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang of Macquarie in a report.
In September, retail sales growth fell to 2.5% over a year earlier from the previous month’s 5.4%. Growth in factory output accelerated to 6.3% from 4.2%.
Also Monday, trade data showed export growth declined to 5.7% compared with a year earlier in September from the previous month’s 7%. Imports crept up 0.3%.
“Most of the economy lost momentum last month,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a report. “The situation looks to have worsened in October.”
Investment in infrastructure, mostly government money, rose 16% in September compared with the previous month’s 15%.
Repeated shutdowns and uncertainty about business conditions have devastated entrepreneurs. Small retailers and restaurants have closed. Others say they are struggling to stay afloat.
Beijing is using cautious, targeted stimulus instead of across-the-board spending, a strategy that will take longer to show results, economists say. Chinese leaders worry too much spending might push up politically sensitive housing costs or corporate debt.
___
National Bureau of Statistics (in Chinese): www.stats.gov.cn
Xi Jinping waves as he leaves after speaking at a press event with members of the new Standing Committee of the Politburo at The Great Hall of People on October 23, 2022 in Beijing, China.
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
The China markets tumbled Monday morning after President Xi Jinping consolidated his grip on power even further by stacking the party’s most powerful decision-making body with his key allies and getting a third term in office.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index plunged 6% to 15,220 points in afternoon trading, the second-lowest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. Chinese tech giants Tencent and Meituan had tumbled as much as 10.2% and 13.8%, respectively. The billionaire moguls behind the companies—Tencent’s Ma Huateng and Meituan’s Wang Xing—each lost more than $1 billion of their wealth within the span of a couple hours, making them among the worst performers on the World’s Real-Time Billionaire list on Monday.
On Sunday, Xi revealed the lineup of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s top governing body. The other six men on the committee are all seen as loyalists with close ties to Xi.
Analysts say investors are growing increasingly anxious over the new leadership’s continued regulatory pressure on private enterprises, as well as the country’s strict Covid-Zero policy which has shown no signs of letting up. In Xi’s opening speech delivered during the week-long congress, he praised China’s Covid prevention measures as a “people’s war” to fight the coronavirus and protect lives.
Those measures, coupled with an ongoing emphasis on areas such as security, regulating the housing market and promoting common prosperity, has disappointed investors who had been looking for signs of regulatory easing.
“The concern is that President Xi now has unfettered power to pass policies that are not friendly to the market,” says Justin Tang, Singapore-based head of Asian research at advisory group United First Partners.
Dickie Wong, executive director of Hong Kong-based Kingston Securities, also says the party congress has given investors little reason to cheer. He adds that there are also rising concerns about escalating tensions between China and the U.S.
In a thinly veiled criticism directed at Washington, Xi said in his opening remarks that China has stood up against unilateralism, protectionism and “bullying.” He also vowed to strengthen China’s self-reliance on critical technologies, just as the Biden Administration was issuing a sweeping set of measures aimed at curbing its access to advanced chip-making equipment.
The Chinese economy, in the meantime, has shown signs of recovery but its long-term growth outlook remains clouded. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a better-than-expected 3.9% in the third quarter from the same period a year ago, according to data released today, which had originally been scheduled to be published on October 18 but was delayed due to the party congress.
But with few signs pointing to a relaxing of the country’s strict Covid measures that Fitch Ratings says have “stifled consumption and exacerbated business uncertainty,” the country’s economic growth would likely slow to 2.8% this year, well below the leadership’s initial target of around 5.5%, according to the rating agency.
Xi has said that China would continue to place development as a top priority, and he says he wants the country to embark on a trajectory of high-quality growth as part of its national rejuvenation, a term that refers to achieving higher standards of living and possessing advanced technologies comparable with those in Western countries.
TAIPEI, Taiwan — Any changes to the China-Taiwan relationship must come about peacefully, a visiting German lawmaker said Monday, two days after China’s ruling Communist Party wrote its rejection of Taiwan independence into its charter.
A German parliamentary delegation focusing on human rights met Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at her office on Monday. The lawmakers expressed interest in how Taiwan would handle threats from China.
“Taiwan is really facing military threats,” delegation head Peter Heidt said. “From Germany’s point of view, changes to the cross-strait status quo, if any, must be based on peaceful means. Also, these changes must be made after both sides have reached a consensus.”
China claims Taiwan as its territory and says the self-governing island about 160 kilometers (100 miles) off its east coast must come under its control.
The Chinese Communist Party, on the last day of a major congress that confirmed a third five-year term for leader Xi Jinping, inserted a statement into the party constitution on Saturday “resolutely opposing and deterring separatists” seeking Taiwan’s independence.
“We note Xi Jinping’s intimidation against Taiwan in China’s 20th party congress. We also note the reaction of mainland China after Pelosi visited Taiwan,” he said, referring to the large-scale military drills held after the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in July.
Tsai did not refer to the amending of the Communist Party’s constitution in her remarks. But her government’s Mainland Affairs Council issued a statement Saturday urging China to break away from the mindset of confronting or even conquering the island, according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency.
The statement said their differences should be resolved in a peaceful manner.
At the opening of China’s weeklong party congress, Xi said Beijing would continue to strive for peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan but refused to renounce the possible use of force. The two sides split in 1949 after a civil war.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council responded that the island’s 23 million people have the right to decide their own future and urged Beijing to stop imposing its political framework and its military coercion.
The German delegation arrived on Sunday and was expected to leave on Wednesday. It is the second German parliamentary group visiting Taiwan this month.
China’s Communist party confirmed Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term, meaning he now has more power than any other Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. Elizabeth Palmer reports.
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President Xi Jinping secures historic third term as Communist Party chief and promotes loyalists to inner circle.
Xi Jinping is now the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong founded the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
He’s secured an unprecedented third term as Communist Party leader and cemented his grip on power by appointing six close allies to the Politburo’s Standing Committee, the government’s senior leadership team.
Shanghai Party chief Li Qiang is likely to be the next premier after enforcing China’s zero-COVID strategy on the nation’s most populous city.
Under Xi’s leadership, China has become wealthier, but it has also faced more criticism from the West on trade and human rights.
So how will Xi’s new leadership team deal with the challenges ahead?
Presenter: Nick Clark
Guests:
Einar Tangen – senior fellow, Taihe Institute
Marco Vicenzino – global strategy adviser
Stefan Aust – editor-at-large, Welt N24 Group, and co-author of Xi Jinping: The Most Powerful Man in the World
BEIJING (AP) — President Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader in decades, increased his dominance Sunday when he was named to another term as head of the ruling Communist Party in a break with tradition and promoted allies who support his vision of tighter control over society and the struggling economy.
Xi, who took power in 2012, was awarded a third five-year term as general secretary, discarding a custom under which his predecessor left after 10 years. The 69-year-old leader is expected by some to try to stay in power for life.
The party also named a seven-member Standing Committee, its inner circle of power, dominated by Xi allies after Premier Li Keqiang, the No. 2 leader and an advocate of market-style reform and private enterprise, was dropped from the leadership Saturday. That was despite Li being a year younger than the party’s informal retirement age of 68.
“Power will be even more concentrated in the hands of Xi Jinping,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a Chinese politics expert at Hong Kong Baptist University. The new appointees are “all loyal to Xi,” he said. “There is no counterweight or checks and balances in the system at all.”
On Saturday, Xi’s predecessor, 79-year-old Hu Jintao, abruptly left a meeting of the party Central Committee with an aide holding his arm. That prompted questions about whether Xi was flexing his powers by expelling other leaders. The official Xinhua News Agency later reported Hu was in poor health and needed to rest.
Xi and other Standing Committee members — none of them women — appeared for the first time as a group before reporters in the Great Hall of the People, the seat of China’s ceremonial legislature in central Beijing.
The No. 2 leader was Li Qiang, the Shanghai party secretary. That puts Li Qiang, who is no relation to Li Keqiang, in line to become premier, the top economic official. Zhao Leji, already a member, was promoted to No. 3, likely to head the legislature. Those posts are to be assigned when the legislature meets next year.
Leadership changes were announced as the party wrapped up a twice-a-decade congress that was closely watched for initiatives to reverse an economic slump or changes in a severe “zero-COVID” strategy that has shut down cities and disrupted business. Officials disappointed investors and the Chinese public by announcing no changes.
The lineup appeared to reflect what some commentators called “Maximum Xi,” valuing loyalty over ability. Some new leaders lack national-level experience as vice premier or Cabinet minister that typically is seen as a requirement for the post.
Li Qiang’s promotion served as apparent confirmation, as it puts him in line to be premier with no background in national government. Li Qiang is seen as close to Xi after they worked together in Zhejiang province in the southeast in the early 2000s.
Li Keqiang was sidelined over the past decade by Xi, who put himself in charge of policymaking bodies. Li Keqiang was excluded Saturday from the list of the party’s new 205-member Central Committee, from which the Standing Committee is picked.
Another departure from the Standing Committee was Wang Yang, a reform advocate suggested by some as a possible premier. Wang, 67, is below retirement age.
Other new Standing Committee members include Cai Qi, the Beijing party secretary, and Ding Xuexiang, a career party functionary who is regarded as Xi’s “alter ego” or chief of staff. Wang Huning, a former law school dean who is chief of ideology, stayed on the committee. The No. 7 member is Li Xi, the party secretary of Guangdong province in the southeast, the center of China’s export-oriented manufacturing industry.
The Central Committee has 11 women, or 5% of the total. Its 24-member Politburo, which has had only four female members since the 1990s, has none following the departure of Vice Premier Sun Chunlan.
Party plans call for creating a prosperous society by mid-century and restoring China to its historic role as a political, economic and cultural leader.
Those ambitions face challenges from security-related curbs on access to Western technology, an aging workforce, and tensions with Washington, Europe and Asian neighbors over trade, security, human rights and territorial disputes.
Xi has called for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and a revival of the party’s “original mission” as social, economic and culture leader in a throwback to what he sees as a golden age after it took power in 1949.
During the congress, Xi called for faster military development, “self-reliance and strength” in technology and defense of China’s interests abroad, which raises the likelihood of further conflict.
The party has tightened control over entrepreneurs who generate jobs and wealth, prompting warnings that rolling back market-oriented reforms will weigh on economic growth that sank to 2.2% in the first half of this year — less than half the official 5.5% target.
“Clearly, it’s a return to a much more state-controlled type of economy,” said Cabestan. “This means, for private business, they will be on an even shorter leash, with party committees everywhere.”
Under a revived 1950s propaganda slogan, “common prosperity,” Xi is pressing entrepreneurs to help narrow China’s wealth gap by raising wages and paying for rural job creation and other initiatives.
Xi, in a report to the congress last week, called for “regulating the mechanism of wealth accumulation,” suggesting entrepreneurs might face still more political pressure, but gave no details.
“I would worry if I were a very wealthy individual in China,” said economist Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis.
In his report, Xi stressed the importance of national security and control over China’s supplies of food, energy and industrial goods. He gave no indication of possible changes in policies that prompted then-President Donald Trump to launch a tariff war with Beijing in 2018 over its technology ambitions.
The party is trying to nurture Chinese creators of renewable energy, electric car, computer chip, aerospace and other technologies. Its trading partners complain Beijing improperly subsidizes and shields its suppliers from competition.
Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, has kept punitive tariff hikes on Chinese goods and this month increased restrictions on China’s access to U.S. chip technology.
The party has tightened control over private sector leaders, including e-commerce giant Alibaba Group. Under political pressure, they are diverting billions of dollars into chip development and other party initiatives. Their share prices on foreign exchanges have plunged due to uncertainty about their future.
The party will “step up its industrial policy” to close the “wide gap” between what Chinese tech suppliers can make and what is needed by smartphone, computer and other manufacturers, said Garcia Herrero and Gary Ng of Natixis in a report.
Abroad, Chinese efforts to assert leadership will lead to “more tension and difficulty,” because “countries are not just going to follow the Chinese model,” said Steve Tsang, director of the University of London’s China Institute.
With potential dissenters forced out, “there is nobody in Beijing who can advise Xi Jinping that this is not the way to go,” Tsang said.
Xi gave no indication Beijing will change its “zero-COVID” strategy despite public frustration with repeated city closures that has boiled over into protests in Shanghai and other areas.
Xi’s priorities of security and self-sufficiency will “drag on China’s productivity growth,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Sheana Yue and Mark Williams of Capital Economics in a report. “His determination to stay in power makes a course correction unlikely.”
The central bank governor, Yi Gang, and bank regulator, Guo Shuqing, also were missing from Saturday’s Central Committee list, indicating they will retire next year, as expected.
Xi suspended retirement rules to keep Gen. Zhang Youxia, 72, on the Central Committee. That allows Zhang, a veteran of China’s 1979 war with Vietnam, to stay as Xi’s deputy chairman on the commission that controls the party’s military wing, the People’s Liberation Army.
The party elite agreed in the 1990s to limit the general secretary to two five-year terms in hopes of avoiding a repeat of power struggles in previous decades. That leader also becomes chairman of the military commission and takes the ceremonial title of president.
Xi has led an anti-corruption crackdown that snared thousands of officials, including a retired Standing Committee member and deputy Cabinet ministers. That broke up party factions and weakened potential challengers.
Xi is on track to become the first leader in a generation to pick his own successor but has yet to indicate possible candidates. Hu Jintao and his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, both were picked in the 1980s by then-supreme leader Deng Xiaoping.
Ahead of the congress, banners criticizing Xi and “zero COVID” were hung above a major Beijing thoroughfare in a rare protest. Photos of the event were deleted from social media. The popular WeChat messaging app shut down accounts that forwarded them.
Xi’s government also faces criticism over mass detentions and other abuses against mostly Muslim ethnic groups and the jailing of government critics.
Xi Jinping, who was once again elected as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party for the third five-year term, will not have any woman member in his top team, according to the new Politburo roster released on Sunday. This is for the first time in 25 years that no woman member has been inducted into the top team, highlighting the stark lack of female representation in the Communist Party’s leadership.
Sun Chunlan, who was the only woman in the previous Politburo, has retired. The last time there was no woman leader in the top team was in 1997, at the 15th Party Congress. At that time, there was just one female alternate member, who could attend the meetings but didn’t have the power to vote.
Unveiling his top leadership team on Sunday, Xi, 69, announced the names of his six loyalists — Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi, as the A-team of the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s top decision-making body.
For years, there have been several rungs in the Communist Party leadership. The 205-member Central Committee is the main leadership body. This committee appoints the Politburo, which generally has five to nine leaders within that group making up the smaller Standing Committee.
Xi has also named a new military commander with experience in Taiwan affairs as one of his two deputies.
As per China’s state media, the party’s elite Central Committee appointed two vice chairmen to the Central Military Commission, which is considered a powerful institution under Xi since he came to power. One of the new appointees is General He Weidong, the former commander of the Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command, which oversees forces closest to Taiwan. The party has retained Gen. Zhang Youxia, 72, the son of a former general who is termed a close ally of Xi.
Xi talks about open China
During his reappointment speech at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday, XI said an open China was willing to collaborate with the world. “China cannot develop in isolation from the world, and the world also needs China for its development,” Xi said. “We will stay committed to comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, promoting high-quality development, and creating more opportunities for the world through our own development.” He added that China had rapidly developed its economy and achieved “social stability” due to decades of efforts in “reform and opening up.”
Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Sunday secured an unprecedented third term as general secretary of China’s Communist Party, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency.
The appointment comes after a week-long party congress during which the 69-year-old leader tightened his grip over the country, making him possibly the world’s most powerful individual, according to some analysts. And it paves the way for him to get another five-year term as the country’s president at the annual legislative session in March and to continue his confrontational line with the West.
Beijing has grown increasingly aggressive on both the military and economic fronts while cozying up to a warmongering Russia.
At 69, Xi has has surpassed the informal retirement age of 68 and could be in a position for life-long rule. In 2018, Xi scrapped the presidential two-term limit, allowing him to rule indefinitely.
In a dramatic scene on Saturday during the highly choreographed meeting, former Chinese President Hu Jintao was unexpectedly escorted out of the closing ceremony of the Communist party congress, in what was seen by some as a sign of Hu deterring health and by others as a symbolic scene of Xi’s strengthened powers.
He appointed to the party’s Politburo Standing Committee, China’s top governing body, officials who analysts say are his proteges and allies. Among them they mention for example Wang Huning, described as the ideologue who has shaped Xi’s nationalist views; Cai Qi, whose ties with Xi go back over two decades; and Ding Xuexiang, a close Xi aide who often travels with the president.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory message to Xi on his third term, the Kremlin said. Putin told the Chinese president that he looked forward to further developing the “comprehensive relationship and strategic alliance between our two states.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is planning a trip to China next month and is set to be the first Western leader to greet Xi as the newly re-appointed leader. EU leaders at a meeting on Friday discussed the bloc’s line over China.
While Scholz insisted that the EU must remain a beacon of global trade, even with China, others such as outgoing Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that many leaders during the discussion stressed that “we must not repeat the fact that we have been indifferent, indulgent, superficial in our relations with Russia.”
And they also stressed that “those that look like business ties … are part of an overall direction of the Chinese system, so they must be treated as such,” Draghi added.
China’s former President Hu Jintao is escorted out of the closing ceremony of the Communist Party’s 20th National Congress as President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang remain seated. on October 22, 2022.
Lintao Zhang/Getty Images
China’s President Xi Jinping did what everyone expected. He extended his rule as the country’s leader for a precedent-breaking third term, while promoting more of his allies into the party’s top leadership positions and maneuvering his rivals into retirement.
Xi, 69, was re-elected as the general secretary of the Communist Party on Sunday, following China’s national congress that opened a week ago, confirming his status as the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. His appointment means that he will be in firm control of the world’s second-largest economy for at least another five years at a time when it increasingly finds itself on a collision course with the U.S.
On Sunday, Xi said the country “will strive harder to achieve the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation,” a term that largely means transforming the nation into a global power with higher standards of living and advanced technologies comparable with those in the West.
He made the comments after introducing the new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the country’s most powerful decision-making body, to a room filled with carefully selected journalists at Beijing’s Great Hall of People.
It’s a lineup that reveals Xi has surrounded himself with allies by promoting close associates such as Beijing’s top party official Cai Qi and Guangdong province party chief Li Xi to the Politburo.
The elevation of Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang is particularly noteworthy and speaks volumes to Xi’s consolidation of power. Li, who has never held a senior central government post, appeared right next to Xi before the leader addressed reporters on Sunday. Li is most well known for overseeing the bruising month-long lockdown of Shanghai earlier this year, which triggered widespread public anger and raised doubts as to whether he might still earn a much-coveted promotion.
Xi Jinping leads the Politburo Standing Committee to a media briefing at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 23, 2022.
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Observers say Xi values loyalty above everything else, and he’s willing to break from the political norms of the past. For example, the name of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang did not appear in the 205-member central committee, which is a prerequisite for joining the Politburo, even though he is still a year away from the usual retirement age.
The 67-year-old Li is known to have at times issued views on the economy that contradicts those of Xi. And in a rare display of drama at an otherwise highly choreographed event, Hu Jintao, the 79-year-old predecessor to Xi, was unexpectedly escorted out of yesterday’s closing session of the party congress.
Although Hu appeared to be reluctant to leave, the official Xinhua News Agency later reported via Twitter that Hu left due to health reasons, and he is feeling much better after resting. But the event does not appear on China’s highly censored internet, with searches for Hu Jintao on the country’s Twitter-equivalent Sina Weibo yields zero mentions of his sudden departure.
Xi, however, did give some reassurances to market watchers. He said on Sunday that China would continue to open up, and resolutely deepen reform. The country’s economy has shown perseverance and great potential, and its strong fundamentals “will not change.”
Xi’s consolidation of power comes as China faces countless difficulties. This week, Beijing delayed the publishing of the nation’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, adding further to investors’ anxiety over an economy that’s been battered by a spiraling real estate crisis and Xi’s unrelenting Covid policies. In his opening address of the party congress, Xi again praised his Covid-Zero policy as a “people’s war” that has prevented fatalities and protected lives, although he didn’t acknowledge the repeated city-wide lockdowns, food shortages and lack of medical supplies that resulted.
Shen Meng, managing director of Beijing-based boutique investment bank Chanson & Co., says going into the next five-year period, the leadership would continue to take a rather conservative stance in steering the economy.
“China would probably continue to crack down on the disorderly expansion of the private-sector economy, and state-owned economic powers would be effectively strengthened, ” he said, adding that this means private enterprises would work in second place to state-owned companies.
And there is a strong likelihood that the crackdown on the real estate sector will continue. Xi didn’t mention his slogan “housing is for living in, not for speculation” in his opening speech, which had renewed hopes among some that support for the troubled real estate sector may be forthcoming. Xi had rolled out his campaign for more affordable housing in 2017, which set off a wave of policies aimed at taming skyrocketing housing prices and reining in the excessive borrowing that had become common among Chinese property developers. But a transcript of proceedings distributed later repeated the housing slogan, signaling that there would be no let up in the cooling measures in the foreseeable future.
China’s real estate market is estimated to account for as much as a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product. The real estate slump combined with Covid Zero is expected to drag China’s 2022 GDP growth to just 3.2%, well below Xi’s previous goal of around 5.5%
China’s President Xi Jinping (C) and other new members of the Communist Party of China’s Politburo Standing Committee (from L to 3rd L and 3rd R to R) Li Xi, Cai Qi, Zhao Leji, Li Qiang, Wang Huning and Ding Xuexiang meet the media in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 23, 2022.
China’s President Xi Jinping (L) walks with members of the Chinese Communist Party’s new Politburo Standing Committee, the nation’s top decision-making body, as they meet the media in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 23, 2022.
Noel Celis | AFP | Getty Images
BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping broke precedent Sunday by paving the way for his third term as president, and the likely appointment of a premier with no prior experience as vice premier.
Li Qiang, party secretary of Shanghai, walked out second behind Xi at a meeting with press on Sunday. Li is a known Xi loyalist and oversaw stringent Covid controls in Shanghai earlier this year.
State positions such as president and premier won’t be confirmed until the next annual meeting of the Chinese government, typically held in March.
Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang had walked out second behind Xi at a similar meeting with press after the conclusion of the party’s 19th National Congress in 2017.
In addition to Xi and Li Qiang, five other individuals were named to the new Politburo standing committee, the core circle of power in the ruling Communist Party of China: Zhao Leji, who’s headed party discipline; Wang Huning, known for his work on ideology; Beijing party secretary Cai Qi; Ding Xuexiang, known as Xi’s chief of staff, and Li Xi, Guangdong party secretary.
Xi was re-selected as the party’s general secretary and chairman of the Central Military Commission. His third title is president of China, which is likely to be formalized in March. Xi had set the stage for an unprecedented third, five-year term as president with constitutional changes in 2018.
Li Xi was named the new head of the party’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, state media said Sunday.
China’s President Xi Jinping (C) and other members of the Communist Party of China’s Politburo Standing Committee meet the media in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 23, 2022.
Noel Celis | AFP | Getty Images
In remarks Sunday, Xi emphasized the Party’s leadership in “a new journey to turn China into a modern socialist country,” according to an official translation.
He said China could not develop in isolation from the world, but that the world also needs China. Xi claimed China would open its door “ever wider” and that the country would be “deepening reform and opening up across the board and in pursuing high quality development.”
Foreign businesses and investors have turned cautious on China after Beijing’s crackdowns on internet tech companies and stringent Covid controls in the last two years.
The Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress this month was watched closely for its signals on how much Xi might consolidate his power.
Four of the prior seven members of the Politburo standing committee did not make the list of the new central committee members announced Saturday. The only three who remained were Xi, Wang Huning and Zhao Leji.
That central committee determines the core leadership — the Politburo and its standing committee.
Top-level economic policy in China is largely set by Politburo members. However, Li Keqiang has been an official face and leader of implementation in his role as premier and the head of the State Council, China’s top executive body.
In addition to purging allegedly corrupt officials, Xi consolidated his power over the last decade with groups that went around the premier’s typical economic policy-making responsibilities, Reuters pointed out.
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Notable ministry heads who remained on the new party central committee list included:
He Lifeng, head of the National Development and Reform Commission
Yi Huiman, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission
Zhuang Rongwen, head of the Cyberspace Administration of China
The NDRC’s He was also named to the new Politburo.
Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL, said some of the central committee appointments have experience in finance and local government, indicating to him that “the shake-up will not lead to dramatic changes of China’s macro policies.”
“We expect that policy focus will not be on launching new stimulus, but on implementing the existing policies and letting them take effect,” Pang said. “Propping up domestic demand to support jobs thus remains key.”
Pang also noted that Li Qiang previously led three province-level areas, including Shanghai, that are known for their contributions to China’s “opening-up” and economic growth.
While Xi’s report to the congress “delivers a strong message of policy continuity,” it signals there are competing objectives and that some kinds of economic growth are preferred to others, Gabriel Wildau, managing director at consulting firm Teneo, said in a note.
“Party leaders want advanced manufacturing and technology to be the key drivers of growth,” Wildau said.
For many China watchers, the question is not how Xi consolidates power, but who his successor might be.
Under Xi, China’s bureaucracy has become less autonomous and more tied to him personally — especially since there are few checks on power, Yuen Yuen Ang, associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan, wrote in the Journal of Democracy in July.
The threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power, she said, “will be succession battles resulting from Xi’s personalist rule.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing ceremony of the 20th National Congress of China’s … [+] ruling Communist Party at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
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The Chinese Communist Party Congress held in Beijing over the past week started out slow but has ended with a bang.
China President Xi Jinping, as expected, has won a new term as Communist Party secretary at a congress that will be memorable for his display of political power and the dramatic exit of his predecessor Hu Jintao.
“This is the most unforgettable meet in CCP (Chinese Communist Party) history,” Tweeted Yawei Lu, director of the China Program at The Carter Center. Lu cited the secrecy around the event, “massive revision” of the party charter, party secretary’s Xi Jinping’s third term in the position, and the “humiliating exit” of Xi predecessor Hu Jintao, among other factors.
Former party leader Hu Jintao, once one of China’s most powerful figures, was stunningly led out of the closing ceremony of the party gathering from his chair next to Xi. (See earlier post here.)
Besides Xi – who won a new five-year term, the six members selected for the party’s powerful Politburo are Xi allies Li Qiang, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Zhang Leji, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi.
As Shanghai party secretary, Li Qiang – now seen as the country’s next premier — has been closely associated with unpopular “zero-Covid” policies that disrupted global supply chains in the international business hub this year, harming foreign investors such as Tesla. Incumbent, reform-minded Premier Li Keqiang wasn’t named to the new Politiburo at a time when private sector business leaders are concerned about new income redistribution measures and a government tilt in favor of state-owned enterprises.
The party meeting came amid geopolitical tension with the U.S. over Taiwan and Beijing’s close ties with Russia, and has been watched by governments, businesses and investors globally for signs of future policy directions in the world’s most populous nation and second-largest economy. Reform to the party charter added opposition to Taiwan independence and support for various existing Xi policies.
Speaking to the press at a noontime gathering, Xi, 69, fused praise for Marxism with nationalistic themes and reassurance that China’s once high-flying economy will advance anew. The “strong fundamentals will not change,” said Xi, who didn’t take any questions from reporters.
“China will open its door even wider” to the rest of the word, he pledged.
The congress until today had been notable for a consistency of policy statements (see related post here). How much personnel and factional changes at the top lead to policy shifts will test that read.
Chinese President Xi Jinping was on Sunday re-elected as the General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of China for a record third five-year term, a privilege only accorded to party founder Mao Zedong.
Xi, 69, was elected to the powerful Central Committee a day earlier by a once-in-a-five-year Congress despite crossing the official retirement age of 68 and completing 10-year tenure. Several senior leaders including the number two leader Premier Li Keqiang either retired or failed to make it to the Central Committee resulting in a major shakeup of China’s politics and government.
The Central Committee members on Sunday elected a 25-member Political Bureau which picked the Standing Committee members to govern the country. Soon after his election, Xi appeared before the media here on Sunday along with the newly elected Standing Committee.
Xi, in his brief closing remarks at the 20th Congress on Saturday, said that the revision of the Constitution sets out clear requirements for upholding and strengthening the party’s overall leadership. “Dare to struggle, dare to win, bury your heads and work hard. Be determined to keep forging ahead,” he said.
“We must be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters and even dangerous storms,” he said. “Confronted with drastic changes in the international landscape, especially external attempts to blackmail, contain, (and) blockade… China, we have put our national interests first,” he said, apparently referring to the growing negativity against China in the US and West.
