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Welcome to ‘Ask a Meteorologist,’ a weekly chat that discusses a new weather topic every week.
Cooler temperatures have been lingering around recently, but warmer air will return.
Bay News 9 meteorologists answer your questions about what to expect this weekend and next week.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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Few humans can say they were a part of the mission that allowed astronauts to land on the moon in 1969. Only the prestigious can claim they have a mountain in their name – not on earth, but on the moon.
Melba Roy Mouton is now one of the handful of scientists and mathematicians that do.
While Melba Mouton was not one of the “hidden figures” unveiled and featured for their success at NASA during the late 1950s and 1960s, her story is no different. As a Black female working in a prominently male-dominated field, she too faced the brutal reality of discrimination.
Yet, her relentless determination and curiosity allowed her to overcome obstacles. All of which lead her to become a prominent leader as a mathematician and computer programmer in the Space Race era.
Melba Mouton was born in the late 1920s and spent much of her childhood in Virginia during the difficult times of the Great Depression and Word War II. Despite this, she still pursued her passion for math.
She attended the historically Black college, Howard University, earning both a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in mathematics.
Mouton began her NASA career at the Goddard Space Flight Center in 1959. By the early 1960s, she worked as a lead computer programmer for the Mission and Trajectory Analysis Division’s Program Systems Branch, to compute where spacecraft were in orbit and their trajectories.
This eventually put her as the head mathematician, helping to track the Echo 1 and 2 satellites.
(Photo by NASA)
NASA awarded Mouton the Apollo Achievement Award for all of her contributions toward the famed Apollo 11 mission, that allowed astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin to first step foot on the moon (while third crewmember Michael Collins piloted the command module).
Ending her career at NASA as the Assistant Chief of Research Programs for the agency’s Trajectory and Geodynamics Division, Mouton finally retired in 1973. Years later, doctors diagnosed Mouton with brain cancer and she passed away in 1990 at age 61.
On Feb. 15, 2023, NASA announced they would name a mountain on the moon after Mouton in honor of all her accomplishments during her time at the agency. With all mountains on the moon referred to as mons, “Mons Mouton” is now the official name of the lunar mountain near the South Pole.
Naming a mountain, or any other topographic features, on the moon isn’t as easy as you think. NASA can only suggest potential names, but it does not have the final say in determining whether the name is confirmed.
Only the International Astronomical Union (IAU) can approve a name and there’s a designated committee that handles that: the Working Group for Planetary System Nomenclature (WGPSN).
The WGPSN has certain guidelines it must follow when accepting and choosing a name, whether it be a mountain on the moon or any other astronomical object. To view the set of rules they must abide by, click here.
According to NASA, the IAU declared that the name for lunar mountains must reflect “scientists who have made outstanding or fundamental contributions to their fields.”
Given all her accomplishments in the field, it makes sense that the name Mouton was a strong candidate, and thus, approved by the IAU.
Since Mons Mouton has a relatively flat top, NASA claims it is one of the potential landing spots for Artemis III, the first manned mission to the moon, scheduled in 2026.
Although Mons Mouton will first serve as the location for NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) mission set to happen later in 2024.
Please be sure to check out the tribute video NASA put together honoring Melba Mouton, while discussing its plans for Mons Mouton as a potential landing and research site on the moon.
Whether Mons Mouton is the selected landing site for the Artemis III mission or not, the gesture of honoring one of NASA’s greatest scientists comes full circle. With all her efforts to get us to the moon, it is only fitting that her name and her legacy earn a spot among the stars.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shawnie Caslin
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
Tampa
PUBLISHED 3:00 PM EST Feb. 04, 2024
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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After several dry days, showers and thunderstorms will return for Sunday.
A line of showers and thunderstorms will generally cross the area between 7 a.m. and noon on Sunday.
It will be windy all day on Sunday with gusts over 25 mph at times, and some stronger gusts are possible in thunderstorms.
Highs will be near 70 in the afternoon as a slot of dry air moves in.
While we may even see some sun on Sunday afternoon, wraparound moisture on the backside of this low pressure system will bring cool showers on Monday.
Most will see around a half an inch to an inch of rain between Sunday and Monday.
Finally, drier air will return on Tuesday.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson
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Groundhog Day is arguably the biggest weather holiday of the year. On Feb. 2 each year, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his burrow at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania. Thousands of people gather around, curious to know if Phil sees his shadow.
As the legend has it, when Phil sees his shadow, it means there are six more weeks of winter ahead of us. No shadow indicates an early spring.
Phil has forecast the weather on Groundhog Day for more than 120 years. But as it turns out, he isn’t that good at his job.
Watch the video above to see how many times he’s gotten the forecast wrong and find out how we came to rely on Phil in the first place.
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Meteorologist Nick Merianos
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Welcome to ‘Ask a Meteorologist,’ a weekly chat that discusses a new weather topic every week.
After a sunny workweek and start to the weekend, wet weather will move in on Sunday. We also can’t rule out a few rumbles of thunder.
Bay News 9 meteorologists answer your questions about how much rain we could see.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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Are our rodent friends really as accurate as they think?
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Meteorologist Zach Covey
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will experiment with some tweaks to the way the cone of uncertainty is presented this hurricane season.
Instead of just displaying watches and warnings at the coast, the NHC will distribute display all tropical watches and warnings through inland areas in a new graphic on their website.
“The absence of displaying those warnings inadvertently gives the impression that it’s all clear in the more inland locations,” says Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, Jamie Rhome.
Here is a look at what the new experimental cone will look like.
For reference, here is what the traditional cone of uncertainty looks like.
Studies have shown that it is common for people to misinterpret the cone of uncertainty.
For instance, according to a study by Colorado State University, people perceive the widening of the cone toward the end of the forecast period to mean that the storm will be getting bigger.
In reality, widening the cone is just communicating a greater degree of uncertainty as to where the center of the storm will pass. It is independent of the size or intensity of the storm.
The NHC hopes to reduce misinterpretation with a new look to the cone, and this new experimental graphic is a step in that direction.
“I suspect we will have to make other changes in the realm of hurricane risk communication as time marches on,” says Rhome. “we want to move people off the cone and onto the hazards.”
Other changes could come to the cone in the future, but the National Hurricane Center wants feedback from professionals and the public before going any further.
“That’s what this experimentation is about, to start a discussion and open up a forum and a venue for people to talk to us about what changes need to be made in hurricane risk communication,” says Rhome.
Even with slight changes to how the cone is displayed, the meaning of the cone of uncertainty, along with tropical watches and warnings, will not change.
The traditional, operational cone of uncertainty will continue to be distributed by the NHC. The new, experimental, graphic will be available on the National Hurricane Center Website.
Here’s a look at the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson
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This time of year, snowboarders and skiers head to some of the most popular snow summits across the country. However, snowy natural disasters called avalanches can become a concern.
According to the National Weather Service, an avalanche occurs when there’s a rapid flow of snow down a hill or mountainside.
Avalanches happen suddenly and “occur during or just after snowstorms on slopes between 30 and 45 degrees.”
Also, look out for Avalanche Watches and Warnings from the Weather Service.
The NWS says 90% of avalanche incidents become triggered by someone in the victim’s party.
They also kill about 30 people a year in the U.S.
So far this year, avalanches have killed four people; in California, Wyoming, Idaho and Colorado.
Placer County sheriff vehicles are parked near the ski lift at Palisades Tahoe where avalanche occurred on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024, in Tahoe, Calif. (AP Photo/Andy Barron)
There are resources people can use to get avalanche safety training and spot potential avalanches.
One resource there is the NWS and Avalanche.org.
Here’s a breakout of avalanche safety tips and warning signs.
Remember, stay vigilant and safe during avalanches and be aware of the signs when you’re on the slopes.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Keith Bryant
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After Four Corners, Florida–in the Kissimmee area–was crowned the lightning capital of the United States in 2022, the most frequently struck place moved a little south in 2023.
The Finnish company Vaisala tracks lightning strikes globally every year using a lightning detection network.
They found that the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area had the most total lightning (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) of any metro in the U.S. with 120,998 flashes in 2023.
Florida led the country in lightning density (lightning events per square kilometer), followed by Mississippi and Louisiana.
Texas had the most total lightning of any state, tallying over 42 million flashes.
June 14 was the most lightning-active day in the U.S. in 2023, with more than 3.6 million flashes.
While somewhere in Florida is often the lightning capital of the United States, it is not the most struck place in the world.
Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela is considered the lightning capital of the world, with an average of 233 lightning strikes per square kilometer per year, according to NASA.
Global lightning density in 2023. (Vaisala/Xweather)
You can see Vaisala’s full report here.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson
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Sports betting has become increasingly popular over recent years, and bettors are always trying to find an edge.
For outdoor sporting events, weather is one of the biggest variables, and RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has spent the past 10 years combining his weather knowledge and passion for sports to help bettors.
From football, baseball and golf, to NASCAR, tennis, soccer and even the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, if it’s outdoors and sports-related, he’s made a forecast for it.
After earning a master’s degree in meteorology and working on TV for 10 years, Kevin Roth saw that there was a need in the fantasy sports world for real forecasts provided by an actual meteorologist, not just a low-quality automated forecast.
He provides forecasts and live weather updates for outdoor sporting events, and breaks down how the weather could affect the game with the lens of a fantasy sports player or a sports bettor.
In football, fantasy sports players get an entire week to digest the latest forecast and can decide who to start until kickoff. Sports bettors don’t get the same luxury if they want to maximize their profit, since betting lines and totals are fluid.
You might think that ‘cold weather teams’ like Kansas City, Buffalo or Green Bay have a built-in advantage during the playoffs when the calendar flips to January, and the weather could offer bitter cold temperatures, high winds and snow.
Earlier this month on Jan. 13, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins during the AFC Super Wild Card Weekend in a frigid matchup. The kickoff temperature was -4 degrees with a wind chill of -20 degrees, making it the fourth coldest game in NFL history.
But Roth says he’s a firm believer that cold or snowy weather doesn’t inherently favor a ‘cold weather team’ over a ‘warm weather team,’ like Tampa Bay or Miami.
“The cold, wind and snow impacts all humans the same in a physiological way. Patrick Mahomes [Kansas City Chiefs quarterback] will get the same cold fingers in those conditions that Tua [Miami Dolphins quarterback] would.”
In football (and other sports), the weather can really make its presence known with high winds. Kicking a field goal or throwing a deep ball is much more difficult with a brisk wind in your face, versus when it’s at your back.
According to Roth, baseball is the most interesting sport for weather effects since every single factor (rain, wind, temperature, humidity, elevation) plays a significant role in the expected outcome.
Since there are 162 games a year, and hundreds of pitches thrown each game, there is a large sample size to help isolate variables and determine how weather affects the game. Baseball is the only major team sport where every ballpark has unique dimensions, so the impacts can vary depending on where ballplayers play the game.
Roth says “in Chicago’s Wrigley Field, a southerly wind creates a jet stream effect that helps balls sail over the fence for home runs. A 15 mph wind blowing out in Wrigley can increase home run probabilities by over 50%. If you were to take that same wind, blowing out at 15 mph, to San Francisco’s Oracle Park, the wind only accounts for a 5% increase in home runs, as that stadium was specifically designed to minimize the impact of those winds.”
Temperature and humidity is a variable that applies to all ballparks more equally. Most of the season (April through October) athletes play in the thick of the warm summer months. Since hotter air is less dense, offensive players score more runs during the dog days of summer since the air is thin. Routine pop-ups can carry further, sometimes becoming a home run.
In the northern climates, teams there play those early and late season games in temperatures between 30 to 40 degrees. Roth says “the cold, dense air mass will limit how far a well-hit ball will travel, and what would have been a home run in 70 degree weather suddenly becomes a fly out.”
If you’re a sports fan, you’ve heard of home field advantage. Oddsmakers and sports books will factor in 2 to 3 extra points for the home team in football games when creating lines, determining the favorite and underdog.
Some factors baked into home field advantage include the crowd, home stadium familiarity, potential officiating bias and the lack of travel, sometimes visiting teams travel across multiple time zones. But how does the weather factor in?
Roth says you have to consider elevation, since it’s the exception to the ‘this impacts everyone equally rule.’ “Our bodies take time to adjust to elevation, so any visiting team thrust into a game at elevation (i.e. – Denver) is immediately at a disadvantage when compared to players whose bodies are already acclimated to the thinner air at elevation.”
Denver Broncos defensive end Matt Henningsen (91) leaves the field during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)
Roth says that Colorado teams have the best home field advantage, since the elevation change and thin air can cause fatigue in more active sports, and change the way a pitch breaks in baseball.
Roth says he’s focusing on “quantitative over qualitative.” He’s been compiling weather data on every outdoor baseball game since 2000 and the statistical results (runs, home runs, ERA, strikeouts, etc) of those games.
The large sample size has allowed him to isolate weather as an individual variable, and the next step he plans is taking that data and applying it to the gambling odds or totals.
Instead of saying “it’s hot and winds are blowing out, that’s great for hitting,” he can definitively say “in 72 games with similar heat and wind in this ballpark, we’ve seen a 48% increase in home runs and a 20% increase to runs scored compared to average.”
You can check out RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth’s forecasts here:
Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger
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Welcome to ‘Ask a Meteorologist,’ a weekly chat that discusses a new weather topic every week.
Our average temperature for this time of the year is in the low 70s, but we’ll see temperatures climb into the 80s throughout the week.
Bay News 9 meteorologists answer your questions about what to expect and if the warmer air stays for the weekend.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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The Full Wolf Moon rises high in our January sky this week.
The moon will become fullest at 12:54 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 25. While it’ll be below our horizon then, don’t worry–it appears full for a couple nights before and after the time it’s truly full.
Native Americans’ names for this full moon include the Great Spirit Moon, Ice Moon and the wonderfully descriptive Someone’s Ears are Freezing Moon.
If those cold weather themes have you yearning for summer, this little nugget may help. Because the full moon resides roughly opposite the sun, it rises high in the winter since the sun’s highest point is relatively low. So, when you look at this month’s full moon, its path is similar to what the sun’s will be in July.
Simulated sky the evening of Thursday, Jan. 25. (Stellarium)
While you’re out, you’ll have no trouble finding a couple other night sights. The full moon will appear near the stars Pollux and Castor, which are the heads of the twins of the constellation Gemini. And toward the north, you’ll see the Big Dipper and Little Dipper.
Since it’s still early in the year, now’s a good time to make note of 2024’s astronomical events.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts
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We’ve all heard it before. Tree rings can tell us the age of a tree, but did you know they can also tell us the weather?
There are a couple of things to consider before scientists survey trees.
First, they must find a site where humans haven’t affected the area with logging or other research.
Then they pick a group of the same species of trees to take samples from. Having numerous samples from the same area can provide a more reliable look at climate similarities over the years.
Christine Buhl, a forest health specialist for the Oregon Department of Forestry, uses an increment borer to core a dead western red cedar at Magness Memorial Tree Farm in Sherwood, Ore., Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Amanda Loman)
Much like coring an apple, scientists core the trees with an instrument called an increment borer.
This allows them to take a thin sample that shows the rings from the outside to the center of the tree.
This method does not harm the tree, and the tree can heal quickly after it’s cored.
After coring the tree, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that the scientists return to the lab, sand the samples so every ring is perfectly visible, and place them upright for a microscope to begin research.
Counting the rings on the sample can tell us the trees’ age, but it can also tell us what weather patterns were like each year.
NOAA explains, “trees will have narrow rings during cold periods and wider rings for warm periods.”
They also say “trees that depend heavily on moisture during the growing season will have wider rings during rainy periods and narrower rings during dry periods.”
(Pixabay)
Studying tree rings can help scientists determine what climate was like for each year the tree was alive.
Because trees can live for hundreds to thousands of years, we can see what the climate was like well before record-keeping began for most in the 1800s.
Determining climate through tree rings over the past thousands of years can help reveal weather patterns and predict what climate we might see in the future.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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Few species have their sex determined by temperatures, but for sea turtles it’s almost a certainty.
However, this natural occurrence could become a biological disadvantage as global temperatures continue to rise, leading to larger gender disparities.
The differences in reproduction between humans and sea turtles extend beyond the obvious ‘one lays eggs while the other does not.’ One key difference between the two is how sex is determined.
For humans and many other species, gender is determined from the by sex chromosomes when fertilization occurs. But this is not the case with sea turtles and other reptiles, given that they lack sex chromosomes.
For them, the gender of their offspring is determined after fertilization, and the deciding factor all depends on temperature. This kind of sexual determination is called temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD).
Building their nest onshore, a female will lay their eggs in the sand, where they will continue to develop before hatching about two months later.
A baby Olive Ridley sea turtle crawls to the sea past discarded turtle eggs at Ostional beach on the northern Pacific coast of Costa Rica, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2007. (AP Photo/Kent Gilbert)
Higher temperatures stimulate more aromatase activity. This yields an increase in female hormones and thus, the baby sea turtle will hatch as a female.
On the contrary, cooler temperatures limits aromatase activity. This promotes male hormones to dominate, and so the sea turtles that hatch will be male.
(AP Photo/Cody Jackson)
According to NOAA, sand temperatures of 88.8 degrees or more will yield female sea turtles, while sand temperatures of 81.86 degrees or less will produce males.
Eggs incubated in sand temperatures falling between these two thresholds will cause a mix of male and female sea turtles.
Following the world’s warmest year on record in 2023, rising global temperatures will likely upset gender diversity within sea turtle populations in the years to come.
(NOAA)
Researchers from Florida Atlantic University Marine Lab announced warmer nest temperatures in recent years have produced more female hatchlings, some years even recorded no male offspring at all.
As the male sea turtle populations continue to decrease, growing disparities in gender could ultimately endanger the species’ existence in the future.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shawnie Caslin
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Have you ever wondered where all the rain goes? It goes to the same place as snowmelt when temperatures thaw out in the spring.
It’s called a river basin, or a watershed, and whether you know it, all the land we stand on is part of a river basin.
Some water will seep into the shallow ground, moving through the soil and helping keep grass, trees and plants healthy. It can even travel deeper down, recharging groundwater aquifers.
Once the ground becomes saturated, a river basin collects runoff and excess water and drains it into a larger body of water.
Depending on where in the basin, it can move into small bodies of water like creeks, streams and rivers, and eventually to outflow points into larger bodies of water like a reservoir, bay or the ocean.
In the U.S., most rain runoff eventually finds its way into the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, or the Great Lakes.
This map below from Grasshopper Geography shows all the permanent and temporary streams and rivers of the Lower 48 in the U.S., divided into catchment areas.
River basins of the United States. (Robert Szucs/www.grasshoppergeography.com)
The Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (highlighted in pink) is one of the largest in the world. It includes parts or all of 31 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces, collecting precipitation for 41% of the contiguous United States.
The Mississippi River’s water level closely correlates to precipitation totals across the basin. Persistent, heavy rainfall or excessive snowmelt can cause high water levels and put sections of the river into flood stage, threatening communities along the river.
Conversely, severe drought across the Mississippi River basin can lead to low water levels, which can disrupt the shipping industry and expose some oddities from the bottom of the river.
When snow melts, the water goes to the same place that rain would go. Generally, 10 to 12 inches of snowfall produces 1 inch of liquid water.
In the western U.S. mountains, environmental and utility experts work to conserve that water and replenish lakes and reservoirs that shrink or dry up during times of drought. In the Central U.S., most of the snowmelt ends up in the Mississippi River.
The annual snowpack in mountain ranges can help forecast potential flooding concerns when temperatures warm up. If there’s a large snowpack, rapid snowmelt can cause flooding.
Below, you can see a video from Dec. 2023, after heavy rainfall and snowmelt from warm temperatures combined and led to significant flooding and high waters in Fairfax, Vt.
It’s more common during the spring, but also possible if temperatures climb well above normal during winter.
Snowmelt can be just as important as rain for areas when it comes to recharging groundwater and supplying freshwater for people and animals. Less snowfall means less snowmelt and less water that could be resourceful for us.
Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger
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We have one more day of this arctic chill across the parts of the United States.
The jackets, scarves, and beanies won’t be needed from Midwest to the Northeast after Sunday.
The arctic air wraps up from the Northeast and Southeast Sunday morning.
Parts of Florida will wake up to freezing temperatures on Sunday.
Highs will reach 15 to 25 degrees below the average for numerous spots, although this arctic surge won’t be as powerful as the previous one.
And by Monday, temperatures should be closer to normal for this time of the year.
The arctic air has been enough to tie or break dozens of record cold temperatures over the past few days–not just morning lows, but afternoon highs.
Sunday morning saw temperatures as low as -20 to -40 degrees in northern and northeast Montana. Saco, Mont., dropped to -51 degrees, and subzero lows reached as far south as Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and parts of Indiana, according to Zack Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in College Park, Maryland.
The Associated Press reports the winter weather over the past two weeks is blamed for at least 45 deaths. That includes 14 in Tennessee alone, where 9 inches of snow fell around Nashville. Three people in Oregon were electrocuted by a live power line that fell on a car, and five people in Seattle died from exposure to cold.
Brutal cold earlier in the week made Monday’s Iowa caucuses the coldest ever, and heavy lake-effect snow and intense wind gusts forced the Steelers-Bills NFL game to be postponed from its original kickoff. A storm system on the leading edge of the cold dropped accumulating snow as far south as Arkansas and northern Mississippi, whereas much as six inches fell.
This week’s arctic waves have easily been the coldest of the season so far. Check your local forecast to see how cold you’ll get, and take a look at the stories below to be ready for the bitter blast.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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As winter progresses across the Northern Hemisphere, cold outbreaks are becoming more common. And for many across the nation, the coldest day of the year is likely on the way to your city.
As we move deeper into the heart of winter, the coldest part of the year is upon us across the Midwest and Northeast. Back in 2022, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an interactive map that details when the coldest day of the year is for your city.
In the analysis conducted by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), climate experts found that this chilly milestone is now happening later than it used to.
Check out the map below. It reveals when, on average, the coldest day of the year hits based on data from 1991 to 2020. From the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, temperatures hit rock bottom around mid-to-late January.
According to their report, the study found several interesting regional differences across the nation. But the most notable observation was the separation between dates the Rocky Mountains bring forth.
That’s because temperatures out west of the Rockies are largely influenced by the parade of storm systems moving ashore from the Pacific Ocean. These storm systems determine the temperature influences, and thus temperatures more closely align with the seasonal solar cycle if you live west of the Rocky Mountains.
While a few pockets out west have seen their date for the coldest day of the year slide later into the season, these locations are typically found in deep valleys, where calm winds and the bountiful snow cover can cause a temperature inversion—where the temperature at the surface is colder than the temperature above the ground.
But for those located east of the Rockies, the analysis found that the date for the coldest day of the year has slid later into the season.
While the West largely finds their temperature fluctuations based on storm systems, the eastern U.S. finds their temperature regime largely dictated by modified snow cover to the north.
Believe it or not, snowfall in Canada drives the temperature forecast for the eastern half of the country. That’s because as snow falls and blankets the ground in Canada, that snowfall at the surface helps cool temperatures.
As Canada’s snow cover grows, it reflects more and more solar radiation away from the ground and back out to space, keeping temperatures colder than they could be.
As storm systems develop and move eastward across Canada, the wind flow can then push this colder air mass at the surface southward into the United States. This is what’s responsible for those cold air outbreaks across the northern tier of the country.
Now, keep in mind, these dates are calculated by averaging temperatures over a 30-year period, from 1991 to 2020. The actual coldest day may happen in your area earlier or later than what the map above suggests.
NOAA’s analysis points out an interesting shift, however: Compared to climatological averages from 1981 to 2010, the coldest day is now occurring three to six days later or more in many places east of the Rockies.
The newer 30-year averages ending in 2020 also show more warming early in the winter in the eastern U.S., according to NOAA. This lines up with findings from Climate Central, which revealed that winters in the United States are warming faster than any other season east of the Rockies and in Alaska.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey
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You’ve almost certainly heard of the polar vortex. But what about “sudden stratospheric warming,” a weather term that’s started making the rounds on social media? They’re related to one another, and they can play a big role in winter weather.
First, a quick review of the polar vortex. The one we care about lives in the stratosphere, the second-lowest layer of the atmosphere. The stratosphere is above where most of our weather happens, starting about 6 miles above the ground and reaching up about 31 miles.
That polar vortex forms in the fall as polar nights get longer and temperatures turn colder. In the spring, it breaks down as daylight returns and temperatures become more balanced.
Polar temperatures in the stratosphere are very cold in the winter, but turn relatively warm in the summer. (NOAA)
But something else can make it break down during the winter, waves in the atmosphere. That’s where sudden stratospheric warming comes in.
The atmosphere has waves, just like the ocean. After all, it pretty much is an ocean… just made of air, not salt water. These waves rise up and down, and sometimes they’ll break and crash on the polar vortex, weakening it.
What happens if the vortex weakens enough? Its winds can reverse direction, causing cold air in the stratosphere to descend and quickly warm. And that’s where the name “sudden stratospheric warming” comes from.
“Sudden” doesn’t mean it happens out of the blue, completely unexpectedly. And “warming” is relative, since we’re still talking temperatures that are way below zero.
Polar vortex temperature centered on 2022, when a sudden stratospheric warming event happened. (NOAA)
Forecasters try to get a sense of whether sudden stratospheric warming might happen because it can give clues about weather patterns a few weeks away.
Instead of a stable swirl keeping the arctic air bottled up, the polar vortex is knocked off-kilter, coming off the North Pole or splitting into a couple pieces. The frigid air mass sometimes spills southward, although it doesn’t always dump into North America. It can just as easily hit Europe or Russia.
Major sudden stratospheric warming events happen once every winter or two on average, according to NOAA. These can cause big cold air outbreaks, although not every cold wave can lead to sudden stratospheric warming.
It also turns out that El Niño can cause sudden stratospheric warming events–and polar vortex breakdowns–because of how it influences the pattern of waves in the jet stream in the late winter.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts
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On Jan. 19, 1977, Tampa Bay briefly became a winter wonderland. Or a winter nightmare, depending on your perspective.
Forty-seven years ago, snow fell across the Sunshine State. There were reports of snow flurries as far south as Homestead and Miami Beach for the first time on record!
An arctic front moved across Florida, bringing bitterly cold temperatures down the peninsula.
Weather map at 7 a.m. ET on Jan. 19, 1977. (NOAA)
Snow started late on Jan. 18. On the morning of Jan. 19, parts of Tampa Bay had more than an inch of snow.
Kids were building snowmen and having snowball fights, and they didn’t want to go to school.
But for adults trying to get to work, it was a dangerous drive.
If you think driving in Florida is bad on a sunny day, imagine what it was like on icy roads!
The snow didn’t last long.
However, it was a rare sight and is an interesting part of Florida’s weather history.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Juli Marquez
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