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Tag: World economy

  • ACCA forecasts moderate global growth in 2026 amid uncertainty

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    The world economy is projected to expand at a moderate though unremarkable pace in 2026, according to the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA).

    The expansion will be supported by looser monetary policy, fiscal stimulus in several major economies and continued momentum from the AI sector.

    However, in its latest Global Economic Outlook, the association warned of downside risks due to a volatile and uncertain global environment.

    In the third edition of the annual report, the ACCA said global growth in 2025 held up better than anticipated despite significant trade disruption and elevated policy uncertainty.

    This resilience is expected to persist into 2026.

    The ACCA forecasts that world gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by around 3%, broadly matching last year’s performance. However, the report underscores that the risks are “more firmly skewed to the downside”.

    The document highlights three areas it considers pivotal for the coming year: developments in AI, movements in advanced economy bond markets and changes in global trade dynamics.

    On AI, the report says early productivity gains from AI investment may ease fears of an AI bubble but warns that fading confidence in those gains could trigger a market correction.

    The ACCA warns that a sharp rise in government bond yields could hit economies by lifting debt-servicing costs, triggered by debt-sustainability fears, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, political instability and tighter policy in Japan.

    On trade, the report calls for close monitoring of the continuing knock-on effects of higher US tariffs and notes that risks of renewed trade escalation persist.

    ACCA chief economist and author of the report Jonathan Ashworth said: “On a central case scenario, the global economy should continue with a steady expansion in 2026, aided by looser monetary policy, fiscal easing and the ongoing AI boom.

    “But it is a fragile global backdrop, amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, risks of an escalation in trade tensions and concerns about threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.”

    “ACCA forecasts moderate global growth in 2026 amid uncertainty” was originally created and published by The Accountant, a GlobalData owned brand.

     


    The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.

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  • Report: Slips in employer optimism tied to Trump tariffs

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    BOSTON — The state’s economy may be on solid footing but employers are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on their bottom lines, according to a new report.

    The latest Business Confidence Index, which is compiled by the pro-business group Associated Industries of Massachusetts, shows overall enthusiasm among employers “grew darker” after slipping 1.4 points to 47.5 on a 100-point scale in September.


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    By Christian M. Wade | Statehouse Reporter

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  • China-linked security breach targeted U.S. wiretap systems, WSJ reports

    China-linked security breach targeted U.S. wiretap systems, WSJ reports

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    People observe the scenery near Chinese national flags displayed for National Day celebrations on October 3, 2024 in Chongqing, China. National Day Golden Week is a holiday in China commemorates the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. 

    Cheng Xin | Getty Images

    U.S. broadband providers had their networks breached in a cyberattack tied to the Chinese government that targeted wiretap requests, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

    The attack may have allowed China to gain information on the American federal government’s court-authorized network wiretapping requests, the newspaper found.

    It’s possible the hackers had access for months or longer to networks the U.S. uses to make lawful requests for communications data, the WSJ wrote, citing people familiar with the matter.

    China denies allegations from Western governments and technology companies that it uses hackers to access government information.

    Government officials have been concerned these cyberattacks could be used to disrupt U.S. systems in the event of a conflict between China and the U.S., the newspaper said.

    The cyber breach, carried out by the Chinese hacking group known as Salt Typhoon, poses serious national security risks, the WSJ reported.

    The F.B.I. declined to respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

    Read The Wall Street Journal’s article here.

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  • India rules out joining world’s largest trade deal, accuses China of ‘very opaque’ trade practices

    India rules out joining world’s largest trade deal, accuses China of ‘very opaque’ trade practices

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    Indian flag and Chinese flag displayed on screen.

    Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

    India’s commerce minister rejected the idea of joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest trade deal, maintaining that it is not in the country’s interest to be part of a free trade agreement with China.

    “India is not going to join the RCEP because neither did it reflect the guiding principles on which ASEAN was started, nor is it in the nation’s interest to do a free trade agreement with China,” India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal told CNBC’s Tanvir Gill in an interview.

    The RCEP deal was signed in 2020 by 15 Asia-Pacific countries — which makes up out 30% of global GDP — and came into force in January 2022. The countries are the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and five of their largest trading partners, China, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

    Negotiations for the RCEP started in 2013 and initially included India, which some members viewed as a counterbalance to China. However, in 2019, India chose not to join RCEP, citing unresolved “core interest” issues. Back then, India did not expand on what some of those core unresolved interests were.

    Goyal noted that at that time, India already had a free trade agreement with ASEAN, Japan and Korea, as well as a bilateral trade with New Zealand worth $300 million.

    “It was not in our farmers’ interest, RCEP did not reflect the aspirations of our small and micro medium industries and sector, and in some form, was nothing but a free trade agreement with China,” he said.

    “When you see from the lens sitting outside the country, you don’t realize how difficult it is to compete against a non-transparent economy,” the minister continued, in reference to China.

    “Certainly nobody back home would like to have an FTA with [a] non-transparent economy, very opaque in its economic practices, where both trading systems, political systems, the economy — the way it is managed — is completely different from what the democratic world wants.”

    Goyal also accused China of using the World Trade Organization’s policies to its advantage, flooding various economies with goods at low prices which often do not meet quality standards. 

    From solar panels to cars to steel, China has recently been churning out more goods in an economy that has been slow to absorb, resulting in a surge of cheap exports to foreign markets. 

    Semiconductor ambitions

    The minister also made a strong case for India to become a Taiwan “plus one” semiconductor country.

    “China Plus One” is a phrase used to describe a supply chain strategy that sees companies diversifying manufacturing and sourcing, by continuing operations in the mainland while also expanding into other countries. This approach aims to reduce risks linked to complete reliance on a single country’s market or supply chain.

    Spinning off that idea, Goyal thinks India can become an alternative place in the region for companies that want to diversify outside of Taiwan for semiconductors.

    “We are encouraging [the] semiconductor industry in a big way. We started building up the ecosystem, which is essential before we can see more and more foundries coming into the country for the actual chip making,” Goyal said.

    “We expect the demand for semiconductor products to be about $100 billion by 2030, and will grow exponentially thereafter,” he said, adding that interest in India’s semiconductor industry is expanding “by leaps and bounds.”

    India aims to establish itself as a major chips hub similar to the U.S., Taiwan, and South Korea, actively seeking foreign companies to set up their operations in the country.

    Earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated three semiconductor plants, bringing the total count of plants under development in India to four. One of those plants is a joint venture between Tata Electronics and Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. The plant, which is set up in Dholera, Gujarat state, is expected to deliver its first batch of semiconductors by late 2025 or early 2026.

    Asked if India can be Taiwan’s “plus one” in the semiconductor space, Goyal said that his country’s size, democracy and rule of law means it is a “safe habor.”

    “It provides an alternative where you will always have a youthful population in life, huge demand, and you will have the rule of law to back it. I think that’s a very compulsive case,” he said.

    The world recognizes that excessive concentration in any one region is fraught with serious risks, Goyal added.

    India’s chip strategy has two main components: attracting foreign companies to establish operations and invest in the country, as well as forming partnerships with other major semiconductor nations, such as the U.S. In 2021, the government approved a $10 billion incentive program for the sector, which is also available to foreign companies.

    As of 2024, Taiwan, the world’s chipmaking powerhouse, is expected to hold around 44% of global market share, followed by China with 28% and South Korea with 12%, according to a report. The U.S. and Japan account for 6% and 2%, respectively.

    The authors of the report, Taiwan consultancy Trendforce, said Taiwan’s global capacity share in advanced manufacturing processes is expected to decrease to 40% by 2027, while South Korea’s could see a 2% decline. In the same time period, China’s is expected to increase by 3% to 31%.

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  • It’s a big week for central banks around the world, with a slew of rate moves on the table

    It’s a big week for central banks around the world, with a slew of rate moves on the table

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    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announces interest rates will remain unchanged during a news conference at the Federal Reserves’ William McChesney Martin Building in Washington, D.C., on June 12, 2024.

    Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images

    A flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction.

    The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day meeting, which gets underway on Tuesday, is poised to take center stage.

    The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. The only remaining question appears to be by how much the Fed will reduce rates.

    Traders currently see a quarter-point cut as the most likely outcome, although as many as 41% anticipate a half-point move, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

    Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank and South Africa’s Reserve Bank will all follow on Thursday.

    A busy week of central bank meetings will be rounded off when the Bank of Japan delivers its latest rate decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Friday.

    “We’re entering a cutting phase,” John Bilton, global head of multi-asset strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

    Speaking ahead of the European Central Bank’s most recent quarter-point rate cut, Bilton said the Fed was also set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with the Bank of England “likely getting in on the party” after the U.K. economy stagnated for a second consecutive month in July.

    “We have all the ingredients for the beginning of a fairly extended cutting cycle but one that is probably not associated with a recession — and that’s an unusual set-up,” Bilton told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

    “It means that we get a lot of volatility to my mind in terms of price discovery around those who believe that actually the Fed [is] late, the ECB [is] late, this is a recession and those, like me, that believe that we don’t have the imbalances in the economy, and this will actually spur further upside.”

    Fed decision

    We'd 'love' to see a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed, analyst says — here's why

    “We are more likely 25 but [would] love to see 50,” David Volpe, deputy chief investment officer at Emerald Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

    “And the reason you do 50 next week would be as more or less a safety mechanism. You have seven weeks between next week and … the November meeting, and a lot can happen negatively,” Volpe said.

    “So, it would be more of a method of trying to get in front of things. The Fed is caught on their heels a little bit, so we think that it would be good if they got in front of it, did the 50 now, and then made a decision in terms of November and December. Maybe they do 25 at that point in time,” he added.

    Brazil and UK

    For Brazil’s central bank, which has cut interest rates several times since July last year, stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter economic data is seen as likely to lead to an interest rate hike in September.

    “We expect Banco Central to hike the Selic rate by 25bps next week (to 10.75%) and bring it to 11.50% by end-2024,” Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard, said in a research note published on Sept. 11.

    “Further rate hikes into 2025 cannot be ruled out and will depend on the strength of domestic activity in Q4/24,” he added.

    Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    In the U.K., an interest rate cut from the Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday is thought to be unlikely. A Reuters poll, published Friday, found that all 65 economists surveyed expected the BOE to hold rates steady at 5%.

    The central bank delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years at the start of August.

    “We have quarterly cuts from here. We don’t think they are going to move next week, with a 7-2 vote,” Ruben Segura Cayuela, head of European economics at the Bank of America, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

    He added that the next BOE rate cut is likely to take place in November.

    South Africa, Norway and Japan

    South Africa’s Reserve Bank is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. The move would mark the first time it has done so since the central bank’s response to the coronavirus pandemic four years ago.

    The Norges Bank is poised to hold its next meeting on Thursday. The Norwegian central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at a 16-year high of 4.5% in mid-August and said at the time that the policy rate “will likely be kept at that level for some time ahead.”

    The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, is not expected to raise interest rates at the end of the week, although a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect an increase by year-end.

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  • Milken Institute discusses report on China’s ‘best-performing’ cities

    Milken Institute discusses report on China’s ‘best-performing’ cities

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    Perry Wong, managing director of research at the Milken Institute, discusses its report “Best-performing cities China 2023–2024: the nation’s most successful economies,” including the underperforming ones, saying “debt is not the most severe factor.”

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  • CNBC’s Inside India newsletter: Could Hindenburg’s latest allegations have wider implications for India?

    CNBC’s Inside India newsletter: Could Hindenburg’s latest allegations have wider implications for India?

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    This report is from this week’s CNBC’s “Inside India” newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    The big story

    MUMBAI, INDIA – DECEMBER 20: SEBI chairperson, Madhabi Puri Buch during a press conference at SEBI Head Office, BKC, on December 20, 2022 in Mumbai, India. (Photo by Vijay Bate/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

    Hindustan Times | Hindustan Times | Getty Images

    The short-seller said Buch and her husband held stakes in an offshore fund where a substantial amount of money was invested by associates of Vinod Adani, brother of Adani group chairman Gautam Adani. Buch dismissed the report’s insinuations as baseless but did confirm that her husband had a stake in the fund.

    Unusually, in this instance, Hindenburg — a short-seller that makes money when stocks fall — is attacking a market regulator, rather than a specific stock.

    Except, it kind of is.

    On Monday, the first day of trading after the allegations were made over the weekend, Adani group companies initially lost more than $13 billion in market value. By the end of the day, the group’s market losses were at $2.4 billion — or 1.2% — while the Nifty 50 index closed flat.

    And there are even wider potential implications.

    Together, Adani Ports and Adani Enterprises constitute just under 2% of the Nifty 50 benchmark, meaning they can drive the index as a whole — and influence broader investor sentiment.

    This means Hindenburg’s allegations pose a problem for India’s wider investor base, as it affects the country’s reputation for regulatory fairness and stability. And all of this comes as India is trying to contrast itself with China, whose rule-makers and enforcers have been criticized for making somewhat arbitrary decisions in recent years.

    “The accusations can have a harmful impact if they spark worries over institutional credibility at a time when foreign inflows are volatile and concerns are rising over expensive valuations of the Indian stock market,” Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist at TS Lombard, told CNBC’s Inside India.

    “The key imperative here for the authorities – whether it is the current SEBI chief or the government at the center – should be to ensure that the stock market regulator’s image as an independent, credible institution is upheld.”

    One way to improve that image is through an “audit that is perceived to be fair,” Deveshwar added. The economist also pointed out that as long as the SEBI, as an institution, continues to safeguard small investors, as it has done recently by warning about bubbles, the “fallout of the allegations will be limited.”

    Others, too, have suggested that the market regulator is more than an individual. The allegations against its chief “shouldn’t have much impact on valuations because SEBI processes are institutionalized and are not tied to a specific person,” said Rajeev Agrawal, a U.S.-based hedge fund manager and managing partner at DoorDarshi India Fund.

    However, investors should not forget that India is an emerging market and carries some inherent risks as a result, according to Mohit Kumar, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

    Kumar said that Jefferies remains “structurally bullish” on India despite the accusations against the chief market regulator, as the country has a “growth story with favorable demographics”.

    “We will get episodes where there are concerns around individual companies but I don’t think it derails our medium term bullish view on India,” he added.

    Need to know

    Indian EV startup Ola Electric IPOs with $4.8 billion valuation. Shares of the SoftBank-backed electric scooter maker have risen 45% above its debut price. The company shipped its first product only about two and a half years ago. By 2030, electric two-wheelers are expected to account for 60% to 70% of all new scooter sales in India. Two-wheelers are the most popular means of transport in the country.

    India launches app to help avoid wild elephants. The northeastern state in India has launched a mobile app that warns people of incoming herds of wild elephants in an effort to reduce violent encounters between humans and the land giants. Clashes between humans and elephants are not uncommon in India, and have continued to rise in recent years. Elephants are turning more aggressive as their habitats and natural corridors get downsized to make way for urban development.

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlines India’s aim to host 2036 Olympics. CNBC-TV18 reports that Modi on Thursday said the country is leaving no stone unturned in its efforts to host the Olympics in 2036. Along with India, several other nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are positioning themselves as strong contenders to host the sporting spectacle. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is expected to decide the host only next year after holding its elections.

    What happened in the markets?

    Indian stocks lost steam this week. The Nifty 50 index closed 24,143.75 points, nearing a loss of 1% for this week. The index has risen 11.10% this year.

    Indian government bond yields continue to fall steadily. The benchmark 10-year is trading at 6.86%, two basis points lower than last week.

    Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

    On CNBC TV this week, Kranthi Bathini, director of equity strategy at WealthMills Securities, said stocks have been on a “liquidity-led rally.” Bathini said the Nifty 50 could reach 30,000 points — about 25% above current levels — “much sooner” than 2030.

    Meanwhile, Herald van der Linde of HSBC said India and Indonesia have domestic-oriented stock markets and economies, which help them stay “somewhat insulated” from all the global volatility.

    What’s happening next week?

    August 20: Sweden interest rate

    August 22: India PMIs, Eurozone PMIs, UK PMIs, U.S. PMIs

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  • Europe stocks close 2.2% lower amid global downturn as volatility index spikes to Covid-era high

    Europe stocks close 2.2% lower amid global downturn as volatility index spikes to Covid-era high

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    LONDON — European markets fell sharply at the start of the new trading week, though pared losses towards the end of the session amid a global stock sell-off.

    The regional Stoxx 600 index closed 2.17% lower, pulling back from declines of more than 3% as the technology sector clawed back some ground to end 0.9% lower.

    All sectors and major bourses nonetheless finished in the red, with utilities and oil and gas stocks both losing over 3%.

    Strategists pointed to several causes for the downturn across Europe, Asia and the U.S. which began last week, including fears of a U.S. recession and rapid Federal Reserve Rate cuts, the recent hawkish pivot by the Bank of Japan and crash in the yen “carry trade,” and an ongoing re-rating of the tech sector.

    The VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, jumped more than 100% to 64.06 during Monday trade before cooling to around 35, still its highest level since 2020.

    U.S. stocks saw steep losses through the morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing nearly 1,000 points, or 2.5%, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%.

    Asia-Pacific markets had led the sell-off on Monday. Japan stocks entered a bear market, with the Nikkei 225 losing 12.4% to log its worst day since 1987.

    The broad-based Topix also saw a rout, tumbling 12.23%, while heavyweight trading houses such as MitsubishiMitsui and Co., Sumitomo and Marubeni all plunged more than 14%.

    The yen, meanwhile, rose to its highest level against the dollar since January as U.S. Treasurys gained.

    On the data front, demand for U.K. services rose in July, increasing to 52.5 from 52.1 the previous month, fresh purchasing managers’ index data showed Monday. Corresponding data for Italy and Spain also pointed to sustained growth in the sector but at a slower pace than previous months.

    Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro:

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  • French stocks rise 0.5% after left-wing coalition clinches surprise election win

    French stocks rise 0.5% after left-wing coalition clinches surprise election win

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    LONDON — French stocks moved higher on Monday as markets reacted to a surprise win for the left in the country’s parliamentary election.

    The CAC 40 erased earlier losses to rise 0.5% by 10:00 a.m. London time (5 a.m. ET). The euro was flat against the dollar, and trading in bond markets was also relatively muted.

    The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was steady, while Germany’s DAX was 0.43% higher and the FTSE MIB was up around 1%. The pan-European STOXX 600 was 0.3% in the green.

    France’s left-wing New Popular Front won the largest number of seats in this weekend’s parliamentary elections, scuppering an expected surge for the far-right. However, the coalition failed to secure an absolute majority, early data showed, leaving markets digesting the possibility of a hung parliament.

    François Digard, head of French equity research at Kepler Cheuvreux, said a hung parliament was what the market was expecting.

    “You have a hung parliament as expected so last week, the market has played this out … It was just expected to be more right-wing and at the end it is left-wing,” he told CNBC on Monday.

    Deutsche Bank strategists added that markets will be suspicious of the New Popular Front’s “fiscally aggressive” spending and taxation plans.

    “Last night the far-left were already talking about wealth taxes and increases on taxes on corporates which won’t be market-friendly. However trying to build a government that has any kind of stability looks a very high bar this morning. Political paralysis for the next 12 months seems the most likely outcome,” they added.

    It comes after a general election in Britain last week, in which the opposition Labour Party win a landslide victory, unseating the Conservatives after 14 years.

    In corporate news, soft drinks maker Britvic has agreed a takeover bid of £3.3 billion ($4.2 billion) from Carlsberg, at an offer of 1,290 pence per Britvic share. This was an improved bid from Carlsberg which first offered 1,200 pence per share but was rejected.

    There are no major corporate earnings due out on Monday. It’s also quiet on the data front, with just German trade data due.

    In Asia-Pacific, stocks were mixed Monday. In the United States, futures ticked lower as investors looked ahead to inflation data for hints on this year’s market rally and the next steps by the Federal Reserve. The June consumer price index is due Thursday, with producer price index data due Friday.

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  • Vienna is the world’s most livable city for the third straight year: EIU report

    Vienna is the world’s most livable city for the third straight year: EIU report

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    Syetarn Hansakul, senior analyst for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit, discusses its Global Liveability Index 2024, saying the "usual suspects" in Asia-Pacific continue to be in the top 10.

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  • Modi’s BJP-led alliance projected to win decisive majority in India’s election, exit polls show

    Modi’s BJP-led alliance projected to win decisive majority in India’s election, exit polls show

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    Supporters of the ruling Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) holding cut-outs of India’s Prime Minister a Narendra Modi during an election campaign rally in Amritsar on May 30, 2024. 

    Narinder Nanu | Afp | Getty Images

    India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks set for a rare third consecutive term in power, as local exit polls on Saturday suggested his Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance will clinch a decisive parliamentary majority.

    According to an exit poll summary by local news channel NDTV, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is expected to secure around 365 out of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament. The party or coalition that wins at least 272 votes will form the government. Final results, expected on Tuesday, can diverge from exit poll projections.

    If the exit polls, which have a patchy record, are confirmed, Modi will serve for another five years as the country’s prime minister — a position he has held since 2014.

    India’s vote, the world’s largest democratic election polling just under a billion eligible voters, panned out in seven phases over the last six weeks and started April 19. There are a total of 543 contested seats in the lower house, and the party or coalition that wins at least 272 votes will form the government.

    Under Modi’s decade-long reign, India has witnessed robust economic growth and a leap in its global reputation. Home to 1.4 billion people, India has one of the fastest growing economies in the world, which expanded 7.2% in the fiscal year 2022-2023 — achieving the second-highest growth rate among the G20 countries. The International Monetary Fund projects that India’s economy will grow 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, compared to China’s predicted growth of 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.

    Some economists are even more optimistic. “The larger you grow, the more difficult it becomes to sustain a very high level of growth, but I think 7%-7.5% growth is possible to achieve,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, told CNBC adding that improving infrastructure will be a big priority to boost growth.

    “Soft infrastructure such as improving the country’s health care network will get significantly more emphasis this time around as compared to the hard infrastructure because a lot of work has already been done on that,” Harja said.

    In the BJP’s manifesto for the upcoming term, Modi pledged that his government will propel India to become one of the world’s top three economies, aggressively fight poverty, open up new avenues for growth and tackle corruption. 

    Despite the optimism global leaders have about India’s growth trajectory under Modi’s rule, observers and critics have warned that the prime minister’s third term in office could bring about more signs of a democratic backslide. He has also been accused of hate speech for calling Muslims “infiltrators” at a rally days after voting began. The religious divide in India continued to be a hot button topic during the election, as well as unemployment. 

    According to a survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, unemployment was the top concern for 27% of the 10,000 surveyed. More than half (62%) of those surveyed also said it had become more difficult to find a job in the last five years during Modi’s second term.

    Foreign investors in a 'wait and watch mode' ahead of India's election results: UBS

    Modi reportedly said in March that he was confident the BJP and the wider National Democratic Alliance would secure a total of 400 seats, but analysts say that’s less likely to matter as long as he is close to the 303 seats he clinched in 2019.

    “It will still be a very positive outlook for the Indian equity market as we’ve seen the type of progress and efficiency that he’s been able to bring from a governance perspective since 2019 with 303 seats,” said Malcolm Dorson, a senior portfolio manager and head of emerging markets strategy at Global X ETFs.

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  • Reducing banks’ capital requirements would lead us into the next financial crisis, German regulator warns

    Reducing banks’ capital requirements would lead us into the next financial crisis, German regulator warns

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    Mark Branson, president of the German financial regulatory authority BaFin, discusses changing financial regulation.

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  • New Zealand finance minister: Interest rates aren’t going down until inflation ‘stickiness’ is reduced

    New Zealand finance minister: Interest rates aren’t going down until inflation ‘stickiness’ is reduced

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    Nicola Willis, finance minister of New Zealand, discusses the country’s inflation forecast and what the government and central bank are doing to get inflation back into the target range.

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  • Lagarde says ECB will cut rates soon, barring any major surprises; notes ‘extremely attentive’ to oil

    Lagarde says ECB will cut rates soon, barring any major surprises; notes ‘extremely attentive’ to oil

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    European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks.

    Lagarde said the ECB would monitor oil prices “very closely” amid elevated fears of a spillover conflict in the Middle East. However, since Iran’s unprecedented air attack on Israel over the weekend, she said the oil price reaction had been “relatively moderate.”

    Her comments come shortly after the central bank gave its clearest indication to date that it could start cutting interest rates during its June meeting.

    “We are observing a disinflationary process that is moving according to our expectations,” Lagarde told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on the sidelines of the IMF Spring Meetings.

    “We just need to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don’t have a major shock in development, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy,” Lagarde said.

    “As I said, subject to no development of additional shock, it will be time to moderate the restrictive monetary policy in reasonably short order,” she added.

    The ECB on Thursday held interest rates steady at a record high for the fifth consecutive meeting, but signaled that cooling inflation means it could begin trimming soon.

    In a shift from previous language, the ECB said “it would be appropriate” to lower its 4% deposit rate if underlying price pressures and the impact of previous rate hikes were to boost confidence that inflation is falling back toward its 2% target “in a sustained manner.”

    ECB's Makhlouf: Expect a change in rates in June in the absence of shocks

    The central bank had previously made no direct reference to loosening monetary policy in its prior communiques.

    Asked whether a June rate cut might be followed by subsequent reductions, Lagarde replied, “I have been extremely clear on that and I have said deliberately we are not pre-committing to any rate path.”

    “There is huge uncertainty out there. … We have to be attentive to those developments, we have to look at the data, we have to draw conclusions from those data.”

    Lagarde declined to comment when asked whether three ECB rate cuts this year was a reasonable expectation for market participants.

    Policymakers and economists have zeroed in on June as the month when rates could start to be reduced, after the ECB trimmed its medium-term inflation forecast. Price rises in the euro zone have since cooled more than expected in March.

    Asked about the central bank’s confidence in inflation continuing to fall in the wake of rising commodity prices, particularly should oil prices spike amid geopolitical tensions, Lagarde replied, “All commodity prices have an impact, and we have to be extremely attentive to those movements.”

    “Clearly on energy and on food, it has a direct and rapid impact,” she added.

    ‘Biggest risks stem from geopolitics’

    Earlier on Tuesday, ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said that the prospects for a June rate cut hinge upon inflation falling as expected, noting that the biggest risks to the ECB’s monetary policy stem from Iran-Israel tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

    “As summer approaches we can start reducing the level of restriction in monetary policy, provided that inflation continues to fall as projected,” Rehn, who serves as the governor of the Bank of Finland, said in a statement.

    “The biggest risks stem from geopolitics, both the deteriorating situation in Ukraine and the possible escalation of the Middle East conflict, with all their ramifications,” he added.

    Israeli forces have pledged to respond to Iran’s large-scale air attack on Israel on Saturday. World leaders have called for the “utmost degree of restraint” in the aftermath of the weekend attack, amid fears of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

    Speculation that the ECB could soon start cutting rates comes even as investors have slashed their bets on Federal Reserve rate reductions. Traders now ascribe a 20% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June, after yet another inflation print showed consumer prices remain sticky.

    — CNBC’s Jenni Reid contributed to this report.

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  • Israel vows to ‘exact a price’ after Iran’s attack. Here’s what analysts expect could happen

    Israel vows to ‘exact a price’ after Iran’s attack. Here’s what analysts expect could happen

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    Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from the Gaza Strip, as seen from the city of Ashkelon, Israel October 9, 2023.

    Amir Cohen | Reuters

    Israel has vowed to “exact a price” from Iran in retaliation for the large-scale aerial assault on the Jewish state this weekend — while some analysts expect Israel to respond, the timing and extent of that retaliation remains in question.

    Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets inside Israel on Saturday, in what President Joe Biden described as “unprecedented.”

    “Right now, they certainly are seriously considering direct strikes on Iran, because that is a clearest path back to deterrence,” according to Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence platform Rane Network.

    But Israel will need to strike a delicate balance, he noted, highlighting that “they don’t want an overt conflict with Iran.”

    The less risky tactic is a “covert escalation,” where the Israelis will be “looking for ways where they can get their shadow war back into the shadows with greater intensity,” Bohl told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

    While Biden has pledged an “ironclad” commitment to Israel’s security against Iranian threats, he has also made clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, a senior administration official told NBC News.

    Ahead of a war cabinet meeting on Sunday, Israel’s centrist minister Benny Gantz vowed to “build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us.”

    Iran has said the attack on Israel was in response to an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. The Islamic regime has accused Israel of the April 1 attack which killed seven Iranian military personnel, including senior commanders.

    Iran’s envoy to the United Nations cited self-defense for the country’s actions.

    “This action was in the exercise of Iran’s inherent right to self-defense as outlined in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, and in response to the Israeli recurring military aggressions, particularly its armed attack on 1st April 2024 against Iranian diplomatic premises,” Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said.

    ‘Extreme retaliation’ later?

    Israel and Iran have been at odds for decades, with Iran funding and supporting groups opposing Israel including Palestinian militant group Hamas, with the ongoing conflict in Gaza often referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Iran

    Tehran has also been supporting Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis as well as the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad.

    “Strategically, I think you will get a movement from Israel within a week,” said David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, who does not expect Israeli forces to attack Iranian oil facilities as it would “displease all of their supporters” like the United States.

    Roche said Israel’s immediate response may be moderate, but he did not rule out that an “extreme retaliation” may still be on the cards in about a year or more from now.

    “If you got the most extreme form of retaliation — which I don’t think you will get now — but you will get inevitably within a year or 18 months, against Iran’s nuclear capacity, then I think you’re into a market meltdown,” he told CNBC on Monday.

    In any case, what the U.S. wants is de-escalation, said Roche. “But I stress you’re de-escalating within a higher level of escalation, which is here to stay, which I think due to the nuclear threat from Iran, is destined to move higher over the next 18 months by a big jump.”

    What’s next for Iran?

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  • ‘Glitch’ at Ethiopia’s biggest bank sees customers withdraw millions that isn’t theirs

    ‘Glitch’ at Ethiopia’s biggest bank sees customers withdraw millions that isn’t theirs

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    ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia – Dec. 7, 2023: A branch of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia in Addis Ababa.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Ethiopia’s largest bank is struggling to recoup millions of dollars after a glitch over the weekend allowed customers to withdraw unlimited funds, according to local media reports.

    More than $40 million was reportedly withdrawn from the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia or transferred to other banks, as customers discovered they could withdraw more than their total balance. Transactions were halted several hours later.

    The bank’s President Abie Sano told a press conference on Monday that a large portion of the cash was withdrawn by students, with the BBC reporting that long lines formed at campus ATMs.

    Several universities have urged students to return cash that isn’t theirs, and Sano reportedly told Monday’s press conference that anybody who returns the money will not be criminally prosecuted.

    In a post on X, the CBE confirmed the service interruption but denied that it was the result of a cyber attack. It added that its ATM services were now “fully operational,” according to a Google translation.

    Ethiopia’s central bank, which oversees its financial sector, said in a statement that the interruption was a result of system security checks and “not an incident that endangers the bank, its customers and the entire financial system,” according to a Google translation.

    CNBC has contacted the CBE for comment.

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  • How far does Gulf money go? An Abu Dhabi-backed newspaper buyout attempt is sparking panic in London

    How far does Gulf money go? An Abu Dhabi-backed newspaper buyout attempt is sparking panic in London

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    Copies of The Daily Telegraph newspaper on a newsstand in a shop in London, UK, on March 12, 2024 (L), and UAE Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan speaking at COP28 on Dec. 1, 2023.

    Getty Images

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Mansions, university facilities, think tanks, sports teams — the U.K. is no stranger to Gulf money and multi-billion dollar investments streaming from Qatar, the United Emirates and Saudi Arabia into British institutions.

    But newspapers? That’s a hard stop, apparently. The latest investment pursuit flowing westward from one of the U.K.’s close Gulf allies, the UAE, has thrown British lawmakers, journalists, and even former intelligence officials into a frenzy.

    Just on Wednesday, Britain’s government announced it would change its laws to stop foreign governments from being able to own the country’s newspapers, potentially throttling a controversial Emirati ownership bid for one of the U.K.’s most influential papers.

    More than 100 members of Parliament have signed a letter opposing the buyout of major British newspaper the Telegraph and news magazine, The Spectator, by UAE government-backed investment fund RedBird IMI. Long a favorite of Britain’s Conservative Party, ownership of the 168-year old daily is not just about profit, but about power.

    The purchase would be backed by UAE Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and would reportedly entail paying off some £1.2 billion ($1.53 billion) in debts owed by the paper’s current owners, the Barclay family, to Lloyds Bank. The deal would ultimately see the Telegraph, which is valued at a reported £600 million, come under full Emirati ownership.

    For many in the U.K., the takeover presents a dangerous threat to free press in the country. Lawmakers have been scrambling to introduce a new law that would enable Parliament to veto buyouts of news outlets by foreign governments.

    “If major newspaper and media organisations can be purchased by foreign governments, the freedom of the press has the potential to be seriously undermined,” the Parliament members wrote in a letter to the UK’s Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, Lucy Frazer.

    The General view of Abu Dhabi city at Sunset on April 26, 2018 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. 

    Rustam Azmi | Getty Images

    “No other democracy in the world has allowed a media outlet to be controlled by a foreign government. This is a dangerous Rubicon we should not cross.”

    Some observers have pointed out that that rubicon has already been crossed, albeit it’s a much more grey area: London’s Evening Standard newspaper is owned by Russian-British businessman Evgeny Lebedev, whose father was a member of Russia’s intelligence service, the KGB. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave Lebedev a seat in Britain’s House of Lords, despite protests and concerns from senior government officials about the Lebedevs’ links to Russia.

    Alexander Lebedev, Evgeny’s father, was put under Canadian sanctions in 2022, accused of “directly enabling” Russia’s war in Ukraine. For his part, Evgeny Lebedev has strongly denied assertions that he is a “security risk,” writing in a March 2022 article: “I am not some agent of Russia.”

    In response to the U.K.’s legal amendments, RedBird IMI said it was extremely disappointed and was evaluating its next steps, Reuters reported Wednesday.

    Rival bids for the Telegraph include Rupert Murdoch’s News UK and Paul Marshall, hedge fund billionaire and co-owner of GB News — both of which are seen to have a clear right-wing leaning.

    A media spending spree

    RedBird IMI, a joint venture between American private equity firm RedBird Capital Partners and Abu Dhabi-based International Media Investments (IMI), was launched in late 2022 and is led by former CNN Chief Executive Jeff Zucker.

    The joint venture’s backers have furnished Zucker with a $1 billion war chest in the hope that the longtime media executive can hunt down profitable investments across the worlds of news, entertainment and sports. Abu Dhabi’s IMI committed 75% to the venture, or $750 billion, with RedBird Capital providing the rest.

    FILE – Jeff Zucker, then Chairman, WarnerMedia News and Sports and President, CNN Worldwide listens in the spin room after the first of two Democratic presidential primary debates hosted by CNN on July 30, 2019, in the Fox Theatre in Detroit.

    Paul Sancya | AP

    The UAE’s Sheikh Mansour is the ultimate backer and beneficiary of the fund, excluding the shares of RedBird Capital founder Gerry Cardinale, Jeff Zucker and other private partners or shareholders. Sheikh Mansour is vice president and deputy prime minister of the UAE, chairman of the country’s mammoth state-owned Mubadala Investment Company, which oversees $276 billion in assets, and owner of English Premier League soccer club Manchester City.

    RedBird IMI has been on a spending spree, most recently inking a £1.45 billion deal to acquire British production house All3Media, the creator of hit shows like “Squid Game: The Challenge” and “Fleabag.”

    But it’s faced regulatory probes and delays in the U.K. over its bid for the Telegraph.

    Soft power and global influence

    To Mazen Hayek, a Dubai-based media consultant and former spokesman at Saudi-owned media company MBC Group, the whole controversy is overblown.

    “The acquisition bid for The Telegraph and The Spectator by RedBird IMI aligned with the UAE’s legitimate soft power and global influence goals. It included a firm commitment to uphold the publications’ managerial independence and editorial integrity,” Hayek told CNBC.

    He cited political probes, protectionism, double standards and “business Islamophobia” as leading to the apparent U.K. ban on foreign media acquisitions.

    “This raises questions about the U.K. government’s consistency and its stance on foreign investments, especially when compared to the ownership, for example, of prominent U.K. sports clubs by foreign investors,” Hayek added.

    The Telegraph purchase is more sensitive, U.K. lawmakers argue, because of its potential impact on press freedom, given that free press and opposition to the government are not permitted in the UAE. The Gulf sheikhdom is ranked 145th in the world out of 180 countries for press freedom, according to Reporters Without Borders.

    “You cannot separate sheikh and state,” Conservative MP Alicia Kearns said of the deal in January.

    CNBC has contacted IMI and RedBird Capital Partners for comment. In a November interview with the Financial Times, Zucker accused the Telegraph’s rival bidders of “slinging mud” and vowed to maintain the newspaper’s editorial independence.

    For Taufiq Rahim, a Dubai-based senior fellow in the Future Security program at the think tank New America, the more pressing issue is print newspapers disappearing altogether.

    “While governments may restrict foreign ownership of the press, the real risk is that newspapers simply go out of business and out of print,” he told CNBC.

    “If the law is passed, the competition of Gulf governments for traditional media will simply move to seeking ownership of new media platforms and social media.”

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  • Turkish annual inflation soars to 67% in February

    Turkish annual inflation soars to 67% in February

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    The Maslak financial and business center in the Sariyer district of Istanbul.

    Ayhan Altun | Moment | Getty Images

    Turkish annual consumer price inflation soared to 67.07% in February, the Turkish Statistical Institute said Monday, coming in above expectations.

    Analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated annual inflation would climb to 65.7% last month.

    The combined sector of hotels, cafes and restaurants saw the greatest annual price inflation increase at 94.78%, followed by education at 91.84%, while the rate for health stood at 81.25% and transportation at 77.98%, according to the statistical institute.

    Food and non-alcoholic beverage consumer prices jumped 71.12% in February year-on-year and recorded a surprisingly large monthly rise of 8.25%.

    The monthly rate of change for the country’s inflation from January to February was 4.53%.

    The strong figures are fueling concerns that Turkey’s central bank, which had indicated last month that its painful eight-month long rate hiking cycle was over, may have to return to tightening.

    “The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of household spending growth in Q4,” Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at London-based Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on Monday.

    “Core price pressures continue to run hot and if this continues, the possibility of a restart to the central bank’s tightening cycle will only increase in the coming months,” he said.

    Some analysts predicted an eventual fall in inflation down to around 35% by the end of this year. According to Capital Economics, the latest figures “highlight that inflation pressures in the economy remain very strong and suggest that the disinflation process has taken a setback at the start of this year.”

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  • Britain to lead 2024 European real estate boom as international buyers eye opportunities, research says

    Britain to lead 2024 European real estate boom as international buyers eye opportunities, research says

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    Aerial view of the roof gardens at Gasholder Park in Kings Cross, London.

    Richard Newstead | Moment | Getty Images

    The U.K. looks poised to lead a European real estate resurgence this year as international investors return capital to the region’s strained property market.

    An anticipated fall in interest rates and modest economic revival will spur inflows from overseas investors looking to capitalize on “increasingly attractive pricing levels,” new research from international property firm Savills suggests.

    U.S., Israeli, Japanese and Taiwanese investors are set to lead that charge, spearheading a 20% rebound in real estate investment activity in 2024 as they pump cash into Britain, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands, according to the research.

    “Certainly, it looks like we’ve gone beyond the worst and we’re having a little bit of creep on the recovery,” Rasheed Hassan, Savills’ head of global cross border investment, told CNBC.

    “The U.K. is one of the most heavily discounted markets,” he added, noting that it moved “hard and fast” but that its fundamentals — namely a deep market, easy accessibility and limited domestic competition — remain in tact.

    European real estate revival

    Britain ranked as the top European destination for cross-border investment in CBRE’s 2024 European Investor Intentions Survey, with investors pointing to its discounted rates and high return potential. It was followed by Germany, Poland, Spain and the Netherlands. London was dubbed the most attractive city followed by Paris, Madrid, Amsterdam and Berlin, the survey found.

    “London is one of those few cities which consistently demonstrates its resilience in the face of challenging economic headwinds and remains a major focal point for global capital,” Chris Brett, managing director of CBRE’s European capital markets division, said.

    The U.K. is now forecast to attract one-third — or around $13 billion — of 2024 outbound investment from the U.S. alone, according to estimates from Knight Frank. Germany, Spain and the Netherlands are set to be the next biggest beneficiaries of U.S. cash.

    Busà Photography | Moment | Getty Images

    It follows a tough year for real estate in 2023, as higher interest rates pushed up borrowing costs and weighed on investor sentiment.

    Global cross-border real estate investment totalled 196.3 billion euros ($212.9 billion) over the year, down 40% on the five-year average, according to Real Capital Analytics data cited by Savills. The downtick was most pronounced in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), where inflows were 59% lower. That compares to the 56% drop seen in the Americas and the 12% dip recorded in Asia Pacific.

    A total of 65.2 billion euros ($70.6 billion) was invested in continental Europe in 2023, the majority of which originated from intra-European cross-border buyers, primarily in France and Spain. Less than half (40%) came from outside of the continent — the lowest share since 2010.

    However, that trend is expected to shift as international institutions and individual investors return to the market as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England show signs of cutting rates.

    “We anticipate Europe will likely reclaim its leading position as the foremost destination for cross-border investments in the next 12 to 18 months,” Savills said in its note.

    Beds and sheds

    Beds and sheds — or residential and warehouse properties — are expected to be the biggest winners from the overseas cash injection in 2024.

    This year for the first time, logistics and residential properties surpassed offices as the preferred asset class for overseas buyers, according to CBRE’s survey. More than one-third (34%) of investors expressed a preference for logistics and 28% for residential, compared to 17% who preferred offices.

    It comes after office transactions fell 71% against the five-year average in 2023, according to RCA data, amid concerns of a wider commercial property downturn.

    Still, Savills’ Hassan said options remain for “opportunistic investors” looking to take advantage of heavy discounts in the office and retail space.

    “Surprisingly, we’re hearing statements [from investors] around we’d like to invest in offices right now. Looking ahead, I think there will be less negativity around offices,” he said.

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  • El-Erian, Krugman and other economists have very different opinions on China’s struggling economy

    El-Erian, Krugman and other economists have very different opinions on China’s struggling economy

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    Many Chinese developers have halted or delayed construction on presold homes due to cash flow problems. Pictured here is a property construction site in Jiangsu province, China, on Oct. 17, 2022.

    Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

    China’s economy is sputtering.

    Its property market is crumbling, deflationary pressures are spreading across the nation, and its stock market has weathered a turbulent ride so far this year, with the country’s CSI 300 index erasing some 40% of its value from its 2021 peaks.

    Adding salt to the wound, January PMI numbers released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth month in a row, driven by slumping demand. 

    The slew of downbeat data has consequently triggered a wave of skepticism toward the world’s second-largest economy. Allianz for one, reversed its buoyant view of China, now forecasting Beijing’s economy to grow by an average 3.9% between 2025 to 2029. That’s down from a 5% forecast before the Covid-19 pandemic broke out.

    Ex-International Monetary Fund official Eswar Prasad also told Nikkei Asia that “the likelihood of the prediction that China’s GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining.” 

    Meanwhile, top economist and Allianz advisor Mohamed El-Erian highlighted China’s dismal stock market performance against those in the U.S. and Europe in a chart on X, saying it shows the stark divergence between all three equity markets.

    China itself, however, isn’t willing to confess its economy is in tatters. Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year’s Eve that the nation’s economy had grown “more resilient and dynamic this year.”

    Feeding on such optimism, it’s fair to say there’s been some signs of hope for the beleaguered economy, but perhaps not enough to sway the bears. For instance, factory activity in China expanded for a third-straight month in January, while the nation’s luxury sector appears to be snapping back. 

    Such data has prompted bullish chatter among investors, suggesting consensus on China clearly lacks uniform.

    Era of stagnation 

    China is in the middle of a secular stagnation, says Clocktower Group's Marko Papic

    From bad leadership to high youth unemployment, the country is facing headwinds from all corners, Krugman argued. And the country’s economic stumble isn’t isolated, Krugman warns, potentially becoming everyone’s problem.  

    Property crisis

    China’s well-known property troubles have been the crux of Wall Street bearishness toward the Asian nation. 

    The International Monetary Fund said it expects housing demand to drop by 50% in China over the next decade. 

    Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said China’s real estate sector needs “fixing,” while Beijing needs structural reforms to avoid a decline in growth rates. 

    Meanwhile, famed hedge fund manager and founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Kyle Bass said the country’s heavily indebted property market has triggered a wave of defaults among public developers. That’s a problem, given China’s real estate market can account for as much as a fifth of the nation’s GDP.

    “This is just like the U.S. financial crisis on steroids,” Bass said, referring to China’s default-ridden property market. 

    “China is going to get much worse, no matter how much their regulators say, ‘we’re going to protect individuals from malicious short-selling,’” he added. 

    “The basic architecture of the Chinese economy is broken,” Bass continued. 

    Glimmers of hope

    A gloomy picture for China, however, isn’t shared by all. 

    The Institute of International Finance said Beijing has the policy capacity to push China’s economy toward its growth potential and stuck to its above consensus forecast for 2024 growth at 5%, in a recent blog post. That view, however, depends on sufficient demand-side stimulus. The latest GDP numbers out of China for the last three months of 2023 missed analysts’ estimates, with a figure of 5.2%.

    China would be very happy if we were more isolationist and dysfunctional politically: Michael Froman

    At the same time, Clocktower Group partner and chief strategist Marko Papic took an optimistic short-term view toward Chinese equities. In a Feb. 7 CNBC interview, Papic said he forecasts China stocks to jump at least 10% in the coming days as officials signal support efforts to bolster its flailing stock market.

    A “10% to 15% rally in Chinese equities is likely in coming trading days,” Papic said.

    JPMorgan Private Bank also outlined bull case scenarios for China in a recent post. “Despite the stock market’s slipping sentiment and persistent problems with the property market, certain segments of the Chinese economy have also proved their resilience,” it said.

    The bank said China’s crucial role as a global manufacturer is unlikely to abate, adding that cyclical demand for its exports could remain intact.

    Looking ahead, China has hurdles to overcome. Whether it has the firepower to do so, however, remains to be seen.



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