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Chip maker
Intel
offered positive news on its foundry business Wednesday as it continues to build out new facilities to expand the custom chip-making service. Investors sold the stock anyway.
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This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-movers-fb3791aa
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Intel Corp. plans to build a “huge and unprecedented” $25 billion advanced chip manufacturing plant in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Sunday.
The agreement in principle would see a factory in Kiryat Gat open by 2027, according to a statement from Israel’s Finance Ministry.
“This is the largest investment ever in the State of Israel,” Netanyahu’s office said in a tweet Sunday. “It is an expression of great confidence in the Israeli economy and reflects the strength of the free economy we have built, and the technological economy we’re developing here.”
Intel has operated in Israel since 1974, and has a number of facilities there.
An Intel
INTC,
spokesperson confirmed the company’s “intention to expand manufacturing capacity in Israel” in support of Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger’s “IDM 2.0” strategy, which includes expanding manufacturing capabilities around the world.
Intel is looking to reduce its reliance on Asian chip manufacturing to avoid potential snags in the global supply chain. Last week, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company announced a $4.6 billion semiconductor assembly and test facility in Poland.
Intel shares rallied to their best week in 14 years Friday, as analysts and investors expressed excitement about opportunities for AI to drive stronger growth.
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Chip stocks experienced a significant surge Thursday in the wake of Nvidia Corp.’s upbeat commentary on AI-fueled demand — with one notable exception.
Shares of Intel Corp.
INTC,
were down more than 5% in afternoon trading Thursday, leading Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
laggards by a wide margin, on a day when Nvidia Corp.’s
NVDA,
stock was up 26% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
was ahead 6%.
Read: Chip index heads for highest close in 13 months as Nvidia momentum lifts semiconductor stocks
Nvidia delivered a stratospheric beat on its quarterly revenue outlook Wednesday afternoon, with executives discussing how spending on artificial intelligence is already starting to drive sizable financial benefits for the company. That discussion has Wall Street thinking that many other chip makers will also be able to capitalize on the same wave of interest in the hot technology — shares of Monolithic Power Systems Inc.
MPWR,
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
2330,
TSM,
all joined Nvidia in gaining by double-digit percentages in Thursday’s session.
Intel, though, was a key outlier. Nvidia’s commentary seemed to make investors more worried that Intel is behind the curve on what some see as a massive technological revolution.
Nvidia CFO on record-breaking forecast: ‘The inflection point of AI is here’
Intel’s revenue and profits from central processing units look “even more at risk” after Nvidia’s report, while Intel doesn’t have “any real” competitive position in graphics processing units or generative-AI compute, wrote Mizuho’s Jordan Klein, a desk-based analyst associated with the company’s sales team and not its research arm.
Nvidia’s earnings call “will reinforce the negative view that [Intel] and all their CPU share is a major loser and share donor to GPU, ASICs and lower power ARM design chips on the way,” Klein added.
While Nvidia GPUs typically would run alongside CPUs from either Intel or AMD, Nvidia has been making inroads in CPUs. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said on Nvidia’s call that the company has seen “growing momentum for Grace with both CPU-only and CPU-GPU opportunities across AI and cloud and supercomputing applications.”
Read: ‘Ride the Nvidia wave.’ Wall Street says the ‘undeniably pricey’ stock can keep roaring.
Nvidia is perceived to be ahead of the pack in AI-related computing technology, but AMD is at least in a better position than Intel, with more of a one-stop shop across CPUs and GPUs. That’s likely why AMD’s stock is riding on Nvidia’s coattails Thursday, up more than 10% in afternoon action.
AMD is “the only other real GPU supplier,” Klein wrote, though the company “could lose CPU spend in process and [has] a far way to go to catch [Nvidia].”
In his view, it “will take some time for more advanced and higher performance GPU and software platform to ramp and really drive upside potential” at AMD. “But seeing how fast and much [Nvidia] benefited, few will want to wait and see how long that takes for AMD.”
A more clear beneficiary, he noted, is Taiwan Semiconductor, whose stock was up more than 12% Thursday. You “cannot get any of these GPUs, inference, etc. without their fabs,” according to Klein.
As for Intel, Klein likes that the company is approaching a second-quarter bottom and positioned to capitalize on a personal-computer refresh, but he said its stock “feels totally stuck at best and could get shorted.”
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Things move quickly in the world of artificial intelligence. It is easy to sit back and complain about developments that could be disruptive, but sometimes investors are best served by putting emotions aside and observing new developments and how they affect markets. Could AI developments and related trends make you a lot of money?
Below is a new screen showing a group of AI-oriented companies expected to increase their sales most rapidly through 2025, based on consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. Then we show expected revenue growth rates for the largest AI-oriented companies in the screen.
Over the long haul, many businesses might perform more efficiently by employing AI. Maybe this technology can create an economic revolution similar to the one that moved the majority of the working population away from agricultural labor during the 19th and 20th centuries.
Back in February, we screened 96 stocks held by five exchange-traded funds focused on AI and related industries and listed the 20 that analysts thought would rise the most over the following 12 months.
Three months is a long time for AI, and the shakeout hasn’t even started.
Read: Congress and tech seem open to regulating AI efforts, but that doesn’t mean it will happen
There is no way to predict how politicians will react to perceived or real threats of AI and machine learning. And the largest U.S. tech players are doing everything they can to employ the new technology and remain dominant. But that doesn’t mean they will grow more quickly than smaller AI-focused players.
Once again we will begin a screen with these five ETFs:
Altogether and removing duplicates, the five ETFs hold 270 stocks of companies in 23 countries. We first narrowed the list to 197 covered by at least nine analysts and for which consensus sales estimates are available through calendar 2025. We used calendar-year estimates because some companies have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar.
Here are the 20 screened AI-related companies expected by analysts to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales from 2023 through 2025. Sales estimates are in millions of U.S. dollars. The list also shows which of the above five ETFs holds each stocks.
| Company | Ticker | Estimated sales – 2023 ($mil) | Estimated sales – 2024 ($mil) | Estimated sales – 2025 ($mil) | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2025 | Held by |
| BioXcel Therapeutics Inc. |
BTAI, |
$5 | $39 | $121 | 411.5% | WTAI |
| Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A |
LAZR, |
$86 | $266 | $588 | 161.0% | ROBT, WTAI |
| BlackBerry Ltd. |
BB, |
$685 | $769 | $1,925 | 67.6% | ROBT |
| Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. |
CRDO, |
$183 | $259 | $363 | 40.9% | IRBO |
| SentinelOne Inc. Class A |
S, |
$619 | $881 | $1,176 | 37.9% | WTAI |
| Wolfspeed Inc. |
WOLF, |
$982 | $1,323 | $1,860 | 37.6% | WTAI |
| SK hynix Inc. |
000660, |
$18,319 | $27,899 | $34,542 | 37.3% | WTAI |
| Mobileye Global Inc. Class A |
MBLY, |
$2,109 | $2,782 | $3,920 | 36.3% | ROBT, WTAI |
| Snowflake Inc. Class A |
SNOW, |
$2,811 | $3,863 | $5,139 | 35.2% | IRBO, THNQ, WTAI |
| Lemonade Inc. |
LMND, |
$395 | $471 | $712 | 34.2% | THNQ, WTAI |
| Nio Inc. ADR Class A |
NIO, |
$11,874 | $16,733 | $21,304 | 33.9% | ROBT |
| Stem Inc. |
STEM, |
$607 | $833 | $1,055 | 31.8% | WTAI |
| Upstart Holdings Inc. |
UPST, |
$547 | $768 | $938 | 31.0% | BOTZ, WTAI |
| Cloudflare Inc. Class A |
NET, |
$1,284 | $1,669 | $2,194 | 30.7% | THNQ |
| Samsara Inc. Class A |
IOT, |
$830 | $1,062 | $1,364 | 28.2% | THNQ |
| Ambarella Inc. |
AMBA, |
$287 | $355 | $472 | 28.2% | IRBO, ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| iflytek Co. Ltd. Class A |
002230, |
$3,561 | $4,582 | $5,851 | 28.2% | THNQ |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
$99,558 | $128,412 | $161,061 | 27.2% | ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Class A |
CRWD, |
$2,935 | $3,793 | $4,739 | 27.1% | THNQ, WTAI |
| PB Fintech Ltd. |
543390, |
$358 | $462 | $573 | 26.5% | IRBO |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
Click the tickers for more about each company or ETF.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote pages.
We have screened for expected revenue growth, rather than for earnings or cash flow, because in a newer tech-oriented business area, investors are most likely to consider the top line as companies sacrifice profits to build market share.
It is important to do your own research if you consider purchasing any individual stock, to form your own opinion about a company’s ability to remain competitive over the long term. Starting from the top of the list, BioXcel Therapeutics Inc.
BTAI,
is expected to show exponential sales growth, but that is from a low expected baseline this year.
What about the largest AI-related companies held by these ETFs?
Here are the largest 20 companies in the screen by market capitalization, ranked by expected sales CAGR from 2022 through 2025. Once again the sales estimates are in millions of U.S. dollars, but the market caps are in billions.
| Company | Ticker | Estimated sales – 2023 ($mil) | Estimated sales – 2024 ($mil) | Estimated sales – 2025 $mil) | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2025 | Market Cap ($bil) | Held by |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
$99,558 | $128,412 | $161,061 | 27.2% | $528 | ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| Nvidia Corp. |
NVDA, |
$29,839 | $36,877 | $46,154 | 24.4% | $722 | BOTZ, IRBO, ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. ADR |
TSM, |
$71,434 | $86,284 | $101,112 | 19.0% | $445 | ROBT, WTAI |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. |
AMD, |
$22,976 | $26,823 | $30,359 | 15.0% | $163 | IRBO, ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| ASML Holding NV ADR |
ASML, |
$28,974 | $32,374 | $37,796 | 14.2% | $263 | THNQ, WTAI |
| Microsoft Corp. |
MSFT, |
$223,438 | $251,028 | $282,397 | 12.4% | $2,318 | IRBO, ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. |
005930, |
$200,595 | $227,286 | $252,129 | 12.1% | $292 | IRBO, WTAI |
| Amazon.com Inc. |
AMZN, |
$559,438 | $626,549 | $702,395 | 12.1% | $1,164 | IRBO, ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| Adobe Inc. |
ADBE, |
$19,470 | $21,784 | $24,276 | 11.7% | $158 | IRBO, THNQ |
| Netflix Inc. |
NFLX, |
$33,915 | $38,067 | $42,275 | 11.6% | $148 | IRBO, THNQ |
| Tencent Holdings Ltd. |
700, |
$88,727 | $99,212 | $110,556 | 11.6% | $422 | IRBO, ROBT |
| Salesforce Inc. |
CRM, |
$34,392 | $38,273 | $42,786 | 11.5% | $205 | IRBO, THNQ |
| Alphabet Inc. Class A |
GOOGL, |
$299,810 | $333,077 | $369,195 | 11.0% | $710 | IRBO, ROBT, THNQ, WTAI |
| Intel Corp. |
INTC, |
$51,060 | $57,799 | $62,675 | 10.8% | $122 | IRBO, ROBT |
| Meta Platforms Inc. Class A |
META, |
$125,901 | $139,545 | $154,259 | 10.7% | $528 | IRBO, WTAI |
| Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR |
BABA, |
$134,140 | $148,206 | $162,199 | 10.0% | $235 | ROBT, THNQ |
| Texas Instruments Inc. |
TXN, |
$17,941 | $19,433 | $20,799 | 7.7% | $148 | IRBO |
| Apple Inc. |
AAPL, |
$390,845 | $416,761 | $445,956 | 6.8% | $2,706 | IRBO, WTAI |
| Siemens Aktiengesellschaft |
SIE, |
$84,681 | $89,145 | $93,925 | 5.3% | $130 | ROBT |
| Johnson & Johnson |
JNJ, |
$98,761 | $100,990 | $103,870 | 2.6% | $414 | ROBT |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Tech-stock picks that are small and focused: This fund invests in unsung innovators. Here are 2 top choices.
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Qualcomm Inc. shares fell in the extended session Wednesday after the chip maker said inventory issues will remain past June because of a downturn in handset demand and the company’s outlook disappointed.
After declining 2.8% to close the regular session $112.83, Qualcomm
QCOM,
shares started sliding after the release of the company’s results at Wednesday’s close, and sank to a deficit of more than 7% after hours by the time the executives’ call with analysts ended. Shares ended the extended trading session down 6.6%.
On the conference call, Qualcomm Chief Executive Cristiano Amon told analysts that the “evolving macroeconomic backdrop has resulted in further demand deterioration, particularly in handsets, at a magnitude greater than we previously forecasted.”
Earlier, Qualcomm had forecast adjusted earnings of $1.70 to $1.90 a share on revenue of $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion for the fiscal third quarter. Analysts had estimated earnings of $2.17 a share on revenue of $9.13 billion for the third quarter.
FactSet
Last quarter, Qualcomm said inventory issues would persist into June, and Wall Street pretty much accepted it. Qualcomm’s inventory problems go back to last year, when the company’s share price fell in November to lows not seen in more than two years after executives said there was up to 10 weeks of inventory in the channel, and forecast a $2 billion shortfall coming off record sales.
A drop in handset demand, however, has extended the time frame of inventory drawdowns considerably past the previously forecast end of June, the company said. As its largest business segment, Qualcomm handset sales fell 17% to $6.11 billion from a year ago.
“As a result, we’re operating under the assumption that inventory drawdown dynamics remain a significant factor for at least the next couple quarters,” Amon told analysts. “Additionally, while expectations are for a rebound in China demand in the second half of the calendar year, we have not seen evidence of meaningful recovery and are not incorporating improvements into our planning assumptions.”
The company reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $1.7 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $2.93 billion, or $2.57 a share, in the year-ago period. The chip maker reported adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, of $2.15 a share, compared with $3.21 a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue for the quarter fell to $9.28 billion from $11.16 billion in the year-ago period.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast $2.15 a share on revenue of $9.09 billion, based on Qualcomm’s forecast of $2.05 to $2.25 a share on revenue of $8.7 billion to $9.5 billion.
In Qualcomm’s other end-market segments, auto sales rose 20% to $447 million and Internet-of-Things sales fell 24% to $1.39 billion for the second quarter, the company said.
Late Monday, auto chip supplier NXP Semiconductor NV
NXPI,
topped Wall Street expectations, and shares rallied Tuesday, while last week, another big supplier to the auto market, Texas Instruments Inc.
TXN,
said that sales to the auto industry remained strong.
Qualcomm shares already lag the broader chip sector and market, and were up only 3% year to date at Wednesday’s close. In comparison, the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
has surged 17%, the S&P 500 index
SPX,
has gained 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
has grown 15%.
In other chip earnings, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
shares dropped 9.2% Wednesday after the chip maker’s optimism for the second half of the year late Tuesday did not rub off on analysts.
And last week, Intel Corp.
INTC,
reported its largest quarterly loss ever, but saw its shares rise because PC and data-center sales, while on the decline, had come in better than expected. Intel also lowered expectations on its forecast.
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A previous version of this article included an inaccurate number for Intel’s second-quarter profit forecast. It has been updated.
Intel Corp. shares surged in the extended session Thursday, swinging from an initial loss after the chip maker topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter, and Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger assured analysts that the company’s data-center business was improving.
Intel…
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U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, on track for their biggest gain in two weeks, as another batch of strong big-tech earnings reports helped boost the broader market while offsetting signs of slowing economic growth.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 229 points, or 0.68%, to 33,302 as worries about First Republic Bank FRC overshadowed upbeat big-tech earnings.
For…
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Have you got itchy feet?
The U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March, just shy of the 238,000 forecast by economists polled by the Wall Street Journal. The unemployment rate declined to 3.5% in March from 3.6% in February.
The latest data was calculated before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month, an event that…
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Silicon Valley could use a reboot. The biggest players aren’t growing, and more than a few are seeing sharp revenue declines. Regulators seem opposed to every proposed merger, while legislators push for new rules to crack down on the internet giants. The Justice Department just can’t stop filing antitrust suits against Google. The initial public offering market is closed. Venture-capital investments are plunging, along with valuations of prepublic companies. Maybe they should try turning the whole thing on and off.
The only strategy that seems to be working is to lay people off. Tech CEOs suddenly are channeling Marie Kondo, tidying up and keeping only the people and projects that “spark joy,” or at least support decent operating margins. Layoffs.fyi reports that tech companies have laid off more than 122,000 people already this year.
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Intel
is cutting its dividend. In a treacherous environment for the economy and profits, more companies could do the same.
On Wednesday, Intel (ticker: INTC) cut its dividend by 66% to an annual 50 cents a share, helping push the stock down about 16% in the past month. Intel has lost market share for chips to
Advanced Micro Devices
(AMD) and has struggled to meet Wall Street’s earnings targets. Weighing on earnings is weak PC demand, with year-over-year declines in sales. A dividend cut this large may partly reflect the economic environment, but also the company’s own problems.
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Intel Corp. continues to cut costs for everything except payments to investors.
Intel
INTC,
which is already in the process of cutting what is believed to be thousands of jobs amid steep declines in profit and revenue, is reducing Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger’s base salary by 25% and trimming other salaries at a descending rate based on seniority, down to 5% cuts for midlevel positions, a person familiar with the matter told MarketWatch. While nonexempt workers and junior positions face no pay cuts, Intel is trimming its 401(k) contributions to 2.5% from 5% and will suspend merit raises and quarterly performance bonuses, the person said. Annual performance bonuses and stock grants will remain.
In an emailed statement, an Intel spokesperson confirmed “several adjustments to our 2023 employee compensation and rewards programs.”
“As we continue to navigate macroeconomic headwinds and work to reduce costs across the company, we’ve made several adjustments to our 2023 employee compensation and rewards programs,” the statement said. “These changes are designed to impact our executive population more significantly and will help support the investments and overall workforce needed to accelerate our transformation and achieve our long-term strategy. We are grateful to our employees for their commitment to Intel and patience during this time as we know these changes are not easy.”
Opinion: Intel just had its worst year since the dot-com bust, and it won’t get better anytime soon
The move is similar to a 50% cut in stock compensation that Apple Inc.
AAPL,
CEO Tim Cook requested and received, though Apple is one of the few large Silicon Valley tech companies that has not announced layoffs yet. Intel is targeting $3 billion in cost cuts in 2023 that include hundreds of layoffs that have already been disclosed in California, with many more expected.
Intel has not touched its dividend, though, even as its free cash flow fell into the red during 2022 and is expected to be negative again this year. The chip maker paid out roughly $1.5 billion in dividends in the fourth quarter, completing $6 billion in annual payments, and maintained the same level of payments for the first quarter despite analysts questioning whether the company can afford it.
For more: Intel stock’s dividend sticks out among chip makers
“The board [and] management, we take a very disciplined approach to the capital allocation strategy and we’re going to remain committed to being very prudent around how we allocate capital for the owners, and we are committed to maintaining a competitive dividend,” Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said when asked directly about the dividend during Intel’s earnings call last week.
Intel shares have declined 42.1% in the past 12 months, as the S&P 500
SPX,
has dropped 10.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
— which counts Intel as one of its 30 components — has fallen 3.7%.
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Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares rose in the extended session Tuesday after the chip maker’s data-center sales gained and executives forecast sales of more than $5 billion to start 2023, even as cloud-customer demand begins the year light.
AMD shares AMD rose 3% after hours, following a 3.7% gain in the regular session to close at $75.15.
AMD…
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The initial version of this story had incorrect price changes for 2023. It is now updated with information as of the market close on Jan. 31.
Investors staged a January rally, with solid gains for the S&P 500 and an even better showing for technology stocks that led the dismal downward action in 2022.
This…
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In the biggest week of the holiday-earnings season, Big Tech results will receive the spotlight amid thousands of layoffs that could only be the beginning.
After tech stocks were decimated in 2022, investors will be looking for signs of a turnaround in holiday reports and potential forecasts for the year ahead from three of 2022’s top five market-value losers: Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
Apple Inc.
AAPL,
and Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
The other two stocks on that list — Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
— reported last week, and Microsoft’s results in the wake of a mass-layoffs announcement did not bode well for its Big Tech brethren.
See also: Microsoft could be the cloud sector’s ‘canary in the coal mine’
Those companies — along with Google parent Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL,
GOOG,
— will deliver results after finding themselves in unfamiliar territory: A backdrop of layoffs amid slowing demand for core products like digital ads, electronics and e-commerce, after a two-year pandemic surge and a two-decade-plus honeymoon with investors. Some analysts say the bottom hasn’t arrived, for either their finances or their workforces.
The one Big Tech company that hasn’t taken a sword to its payroll is Apple, which also increased its staff the least among the group during the COVID-19 pandemic. Apple shed $846 billion from its market cap last year, and now reports after its core product was part of the smartphone industry’s worst year since 2013 and worst holiday-season decline on record. The iPhone maker could also face questions from Wall Street about changing up its product sourcing, which has relied heavily on China, a nation whose COVID-19 restrictions have constrained production of some phones.
While the tech-industry layoffs have yet to hit Apple, some analysts say the company is unlikely to be spared, despite Chief Executive Tim Cook requesting and receiving a healthy cut to his compensation.
“Similar to other big technology companies, we expect Apple to adjust its head count to reflect an increasingly challenging global macroeconomic environment,” D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte said in a research note Tuesday.
Rivals that have already cut could face more if profit continues to fall along with revenue growth. Alphabet, for instance, is cutting 12,000 employees, but an activist investor has already said that is not enough considering how much the company grew during the pandemic, and the difficulties it now faces in the online-ad sector.
Opinion: Microsoft’s big move in AI does not mean it will challenge Google in search
Analysts have said Meta’s “darkest days” are still ahead, as it navigates a round of more than 11,000 layoffs, competition from TikTok and its early stumbles in the metaverse. While cutting, Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has promised to keep spending on metaverse development, even as the efforts slash the Facebook parent company’s previously healthy bottom line.
“In 2023, we expect Meta to remain engulfed in arduous battles inside the Octagon,” Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White said in a research note on Thursday. “In the long run, we believe Meta will benefit from the secular digital ad trend and innovate in the metaverse; however, regulatory scrutiny persists, internal headwinds remain, and we believe the darkest days of this downturn are ahead of us.”
Full Facebook earnings preview: Meta’s ‘darkest days’ are ahead, but some analysts say ad sales are still on track
Online retailer Amazon
AMZN,
was the first Big Tech company to publicly declare cost-cutting was in order a year ago, and still coughed up $834 billion in market value in 2022. It kicked off 2023 with plans to lay off more than 18,000 workers as struggles continued throughout last year, when inflation siphoned away more consumer dollars toward essentials.
Amazon’s own AWS cloud-infrastructure unit has helped to drive sales in years past, as businesses built out their tech infrastructures. But remarks and the outlook from Microsoft executives — the third-biggest market-cap loser of 2022, and a big barometer for tech spending overall — weren’t exactly encouraging for cloud growth: Executives there last week warned of “moderating consumption growth” for its own cloud business.
For more: One company could determine whether U.S. corporate profits rise to a record in 2023
“Sentiment was already bearish on AWS, with investors looking for slowing revenue over the next three quarters, largely confirmed after Microsoft earnings and conversations with industry checks,” Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein said in a note on Wednesday. “Positively, we believe e-commerce revenue has stabilized, and margins should improve from organic scale and announced head-count reductions.”
Layoffs are also starting to spread beyond Big Tech companies that grew fast during the pandemic in response to massive demand spikes. International Business Machines Corp.
IBM,
confirmed plans for 3,900 layoffs as it reported earnings, despite already reducing its workforce by at least 20% during the pandemic.
One sector to watch is semiconductors, where a chip shortage has turned into a glut: Chip-equipment maker Lam Research Corp.
LRCX,
announced layoffs in the past week as Silicon Valley semiconductor giant Intel Corp.
INTC,
displayed “astonishingly bad” results while laying off workers. When Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
reports this week, it could determine whether there is any silver lining in the semiconductor storm.
Earnings preview: AMD faces even more scrutiny after ‘astonishingly bad’ Intel outlook
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a Sunday note that a common theme of this week’s Big Tech earnings will be that “tech layoffs will accelerate with more pain ahead to curb expenses,” though he added that “Apple will likely cut some costs around the edges, but we do not expect mass layoffs from Cupertino this week.”
Big Tech earnings were a salve to other problems in the market for the past decade-plus, but with layoffs already under way and doubts about the path forward, don’t expect salvation from their results this week.
For the week ahead, 107 S&P 500
SPX,
companies, including six members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
will report results, according to FactSet. While more Dow components reported last week, this will be the busiest week for S&P 500 holiday earnings of the season, FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters confirmed to MarketWatch.
Appliance-maker Whirlpool Corp.
WHR,
reports on Monday, after it forecast fourth-quarter sales that were below expectations, following what it called a “one-off supply-chain disruption” and the pandemic home-renovation boom.
On Tuesday, package-deliverer United Parcel Service Inc.
UPS,
reports, amid questions about holiday-season demand. So does streaming service Spotify Technology,
SPOT,
following its own layoffs and suggestions of possible price hikes, as well as McDonald’s Corp.
MCD,
amid concerns that rising prices are keeping people from dining out. Exxon Mobil Corp.
XOM,
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT,
Snap Inc.
SNAP,
and Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
also report Tuesday.
Earnings outlook: McDonald’s earnings haven’t been hit by higher prices
On Wednesday, T-Mobile US Inc.
TMUS,
reports, in the wake of a data breach and wobbling cellphone demand. Coffee chain Starbucks Corp.
SBUX,
reports on Thursday, with analysts likely to be zeroed in on U.S. demand and China’s reopening, after executives said they were confident that higher prices, along with enthusiasm from younger customers and for customizable drinks, could help them navigate any potholes in the economy.
For the Big Tech companies, Thursday is also the big day: Apple, Amazon and Alphabet will report that afternoon, after Meta reports the prior day.
WWE upheaval: World Wrestling Entertainment Inc.
WWE,
reports earnings on Thursday, as Vince McMahon — who returned to the professional-wrestling organization this month following allegations of sexual misconduct — seeks a buyer or some other so-called “strategic alternative” for the company.
Analysts have speculated how the company’s wrestling events and backlog of media content might be repurposed, with some entertaining the possibility of interest from Amazon or Netflix Inc.
NFLX,
But WWE has struggled to develop story lines that stick with viewers, and has thinned its ranks of wrestlers.
The Wall Street Journal this month reported that McMahon would pay a multimillion-dollar settlement to a former referee who accused him of raping her. Among the changes since McMahon returned was the departure of his daughter, who had been promoted to co-CEO after he stepped down from the role last year.
There isn’t much clarity on whether Vince McMahon will be on Thursday’s earnings call, which was moved from the morning to the afternoon due to a scheduling conflict. But it should offer drama no matter who attends.
GM and Ford auto sales: Auto makers General Motors Co.
GM,
and Ford Motor Co.
F,
will issue results on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, amid signs of waning demand and rising interest rates that have made car loans more expensive. Despite falling new-vehicle sales in the third quarter, GM managed to keep its own sales higher, the AP noted.
Mary Barry, GM’s chief executive, called out the popularity of vehicles like the Escalade, the Chevrolet Bolt EV and some pickups and SUVs during the auto maker’s third-quarter earnings call in October. During that quarter, GM said it completed and shipped nearly 75% of the unfinished vehicles held in its inventory in June. She said supply-chains were opening up again, but added that “short-term disruptions will continue to happen.”
The auto makers report as they try to put a chip shortage and other production constraints behind them. But some forecasts call for 2022 auto sales, or sales volumes, to be the weakest in roughly a decade. Electric vehicle maker Tesla’s recent price cuts could also cut into GM’s and Ford’s own EV sales.
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Intel Corp. shares dropped more than 9% in the extended session Thursday after the chip maker reported a big miss for the fourth quarter, forecast a loss for the first quarter, said the data-center market was contracting and that inventory digestion will gnaw at margins.
Intel
INTC,
executives forecast an adjusted loss of 15 cents a share on revenue of about $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion and adjusted gross margins of about 39% for the current quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated adjusted first-quarter earnings of 25 cents a share on revenue of $13.93 billion.
Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger told analysts on a conference call he would not provide a 2023 forecast. Gelsinger restricted the outlook to the current quarter, citing macro uncertainties, a digestion of PC inventory that was “difficult” to forecast and a contracting data-center market. In the fourth quarter, AI group sales dropped 33% to $4.3 billion, while the Street expected revenue of $4.08 billion.
“We expect Q1 server consumption [total addressable market] to decline both sequentially and year-over-year at an accelerated rate, with first-half 2023 server consumption TAM down year-on-year before returning to growth in the second half,” Gelsinger said.
Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner told analysts that the company will institute an accounting change in the first quarter, where Intel will extend the useful life of their machinery to eight years from a current five years. Gelsinger said that Intel was going to “squeeze” its effective capacity.
While Zinsner would not give a full-year outlook, he did say that continued inventory digestion should be weighted to the first half of the year.
Pressed on how Intel could get back to the 51% to 53% margins range he promised a year ago, Zinsner said a “significant inventory burn” on PC inventory would hit gross margins by 400 basis points in the first quarter. Gross margins for the fourth quarter dropped to 43.8% from 55.8% a year ago, and from 45.9% in the third quarter.
Intel reported a fourth-quarter loss of $664 million, or 16 cents a share, versus net income of $4.62 billion, or $1.13 a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for restructuring charges and other items, Intel reported earnings of 10 cents a share, compared with $1.13 a share from a year ago.
Revenue declined to $14.04 billion from $20.52 billion in the year-ago quarter, for a 10th straight quarter of year-over-year declines.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet estimated earnings of 21 cents a share on revenue of $14.49 billion, based on Intel’s forecast of 20 cents a share on about $14 billion to $15 billion.
Intel shares fell 9% in after-hours trading, after closing the regular session up 1.3% at $30.09. Other chip stocks also declined, including top rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
which saw shares drop more than 3% in after-hours trading, and Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
which declined 2%.
Breaking down divisions: Client-computing sales fell 36% to $6.6 billion from a year ago; “network and edge” sales slipped 1% to $2.1 billion; and foundry services revenue rose 30% to $319 million.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected revenue from client computing to come in at $7.36 billion; “network and edge” revenue of $2.23 billion; and foundry services revenue of $199.1 million.
Over the past 12 months, Intel stock has fallen 43%. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
— which counts Intel as a component — has slipped 1%, the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
has dropped 13%, the S&P 500 index
SPX,
has declined 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
has dropped 15%.
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Intel Corp. shares dropped in the extended session Thursday after the chip maker reported a big miss for the fourth quarter and forecast a loss for the first quarter.
Intel
INTC,
shares fell 6% in after-hours trading, after closing the regular session up 1.3% at $30.09.
For the first quarter, Intel forecast an adjusted loss of 15 cents a share on revenue of about $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion and adjusted gross margins of about 39%. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated adjusted first-quarter earnings of 25 cents a share on revenue of $13.93 billion.
“In 2023, we will continue to navigate the short-term challenges while striving to meet our long-term commitments, including delivering leadership products anchored on open and secure platforms, powered by at-scale manufacturing and supercharged by our incredible team,” said Pat Gelsinger, Intel’s chief executive, in a statement.
Intel reported a fourth-quarter loss of $664 million, or 16 cents a share, versus net income of $4.62 billion, or $1.13 a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for restructuring charges and other items, Intel reported earnings of 10 cents a share, compared with $1.09 a share from a year ago.
Revenue declined to $14.04 billion from $20.52 billion in the year-ago quarter, for a 10th straight quarter of year-over-year declines. Gross margins dropped to 43.8% from 55.8% a year ago, and 45.9% in the third quarter.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet estimated earnings of 21 cents a share on revenue of $14.49 billion, based on Intel’s forecast of 20 cents a share on about $14 billion to $15 billion.
Over the past 12 months, Intel stock has fallen 43%. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
— which counts Intel as a component — has slipped 1%, the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
has dropped 13%, the S&P 500 index
SPX,
has declined 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
has dropped 15%.
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U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday as optimism over Tesla’s earnings results and a stronger-than-expected GDP report left investors in a better mood following Wednesday’s intraday selloff.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Wednesday’s session up 10 points after falling roughly 400 points at the lows earlier in the session. The S&P 500 finished little-changed after erasing its early losses, while the Nasdaq ended lower.
Stocks opened higher after a flurry of economic data including a fourth quarter GDP report that came in stronger than expected, but the focus was on the latest batch of earnings, which helped to revive investors’ optimism following disappointing guidance from Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
earlier in the week.
The economy grew at a robust 2.9% annual pace to close out 2022, according to the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP, released Thursday morning — the latest sign that the U.S. economy is holding up well despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest-rate hikes.
“Thursday’s GDP report suggests that the economy is relatively strong even in the face of aggressive measures by the Federal Reserve to calm inflation,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer, BMO Family Office, in emailed commentary.
Stocks rose after the data were released as investors found solace in the latest signs that a soft landing for the U.S. economy — a scenario where growth slows, but a recession is avoided — remains possible, or even likely.
“This is a bit of a relief rally,” said Christopher Zook, chairman and chief investment officer of CAZ Investments.
However, corporate earnings and guidance are still the primary concern for investors, along with expectations about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, Zook said.
The labor market also showed signs of strength despite more reports of layoffs in the tech, finance and media spaces, as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level since April. Investors also digested durable goods orders for December. New home sales for December will be published at 10 a.m. ET.
Investors also celebrated a surge in Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
shares premarket after the firm released well-received results that showed record quarterly profits.
Disappointing guidance from technology behemoth Microsoft had clobbered stocks on Wednesday as traders worried it signaled not just difficulties for the sector but also broadly worsening economic conditions.
However, before the end of Wednesday’s session, Microsoft shares had recovered most of their 4.5% loss and the S&P 500 finished the session almost exactly where it began, according to data from FactSet.
As for the Federal Reserve, the central bank is expected to slow the pace of interest rate hikes when it next week raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.
Companies announcing results on Thursday include: McDonald’s
MCD,
Intel
INTC,
Comcast
CMCSA,
Visa
V,
Dow
DOW,
Whirl pool
WHR,
Western Digital
WDC,
and Northrop Grumman
NOC,
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After one of the worst years in Wall Street’s history, investors have some serious questions for companies. As holiday returns roll in — and with them, forecasts for the months or year ahead — many have the chance to answer those questions, or avoid them.
In the busiest week of the holiday-earnings season so far, three big names will take the stage on back-to-back-to-back afternoons. Here is what to expect:
Microsoft
MSFT,
shed $737 billion in market value last year, the third-most of any S&P 500 company, then announced plans to lay off some 10,000 workers this month. Previously a Wall Street darling thanks to the phenomenal growth of its Azure cloud-computing offering, Microsoft now faces a cutback in enterprise spending on cloud and other products, as companies seek to cut their bills after spending wantonly during the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
First Take: Big Tech layoffs are not as big as they appear at first glance
When the company announced layoffs, Chief Executive Satya Nadella admitted customers were cutting, saying “as we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we’re now seeing them optimize their digital spend to do more with less.” Analysts believe Azure may be holding up better than rivals, however, and will expect to hear about it when Microsoft results hit Tuesday afternoon.
“Our Azure checks were mixed, but generally better than public cloud sentiment that has turned highly negative over the past few months,” Mizuho analysts wrote. “More specifically, we have heard of increasing levels of optimization, but it is being partially offset by many organizations prioritizing digital transformation.”
From October: The cloud boom has hit its stormiest moment yet, and it is costing investors billions
As cloud growth slows down, expect Microsoft to point to the next big buzzword in tech: Artificial intelligence, specifically ChatGPT, the chatbot product developed by OpenAI, which Microsoft has invested heavily in and expects to incorporate into its products. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria this month wrote that Microsoft’s investments in OpenAI would help it build out more AI technology, including in its search engine Bing.
Tesla
TSLA,
stock suffered a much larger percentage decline than Microsoft in 2022,as the electric-vehicle maker’s shares closed out their worst year on record with their worst quarter and month ever. After the year ended, Tesla began slashing prices in China and the U.S. in hopes of qualifying for more consumer tax incentives and reinvigorating demand, which could lead to questions about previously fat margins.
In-depth: Tesla investors await clues on demand, board actions and weigh downside risks in 2023
For Tesla, which reports fourth-quarter results Wednesday, the results will offer more context on production of the Cybertruck — currently set to start in the middle of the year — demand in China, competition and the impact of price cuts. Auto-information website Edmunds on Thursday said that Tesla’s decision to slash prices by as much as 20% in the U.S. and Europe led to a jump in interest in the vehicles.
While those cuts seem likely to hurt profit, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner called it “a bold offensive move, which secures Tesla’s volume growth, puts its traditional and EV competitors in great difficulty, and showcases Tesla’s considerable pricing power and cost superiority.” And a survey from Wedbush analysts found that “76% of EV Chinese consumers are considering buying a Tesla in 2023.” But Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Bernstein, said Tesla needed more low-cost electric-vehicle offerings, which might not ship until 2025.
Tesla earnings preview: Price cuts in focus as stock hovers around 2-year low
With Tesla’s stock in the gutter, some analysts have raised the possibility of a share buyback to spur investor interest, and Chief Executive Elon Musk said such a plan was being discussed in the previous earnings call. Musk is not in great favor with many investors right now, however, following some heavy selling of Tesla shares in the wake of his purchase last year of Twitter, which some on Wall Street have said has distracted him from the needs of the auto maker. Musk’s tweets have landed him in trouble elsewhere: Opening arguments began last week for a trial centered on allegations that Musk put investors at risk when he tweeted in 2018 that he was “considering” taking Tesla private and had secured the money to do so.
‘He broke the stock’: Why a prominent Tesla investor wants Elon Musk to put him on the board
Intel’s
INTC,
questions were not fresh in 2022, as the chip maker for years has seen rivals like Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
and Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
challenge it in ways that would have been unthinkable in previous generations. Shares still dove more than 43% last year, as declining sales led to plans for $3 billion in cost cuts.
There’s little hope for a big rebound when Intel reports Thursday afternoon. Personal-computer sales have experienced their biggest year-over-year declines ever recorded, and Intel’s long-delayed new data-center offering that is meant to answer AMD’s challenge only began selling this year.
Opinion: The PC boom and bust is already ‘one for the record books,’ and it isn’t over
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, though, has a chance to lay out his vision for a long-term Intel rebound, as he attempts to make Intel a chip-manufacturing powerhouse again after years of struggles. He was forced to trim his annual outlook multiple times last year, so it will be important for him to provide attainable numbers this time, but without reducing hopes in the path forward.
Expectations remain low for fourth-quarter earnings season overall, with consumers squeezed by higher prices and interest rates, and hopes fading for any relief from the holiday shopping season. But even with a low bar, the fourth-quarter results from companies so far have been worse than the historical norm, with FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters writing Friday that “the fourth-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is not off to a strong start.”
So far, 11% of S&P 500 companies have reported fourth-quarter results, with roughly one-third reporting earnings better than estimates, Butters reported. That’s lower than the 10-year average of 73%.
Still, Wall Street generally expects strong profit margins for companies in the S&P 500, as earlier price increases — which help businesses offset their own costs and test the limits of consumer demand — mix with more recent cost cuts.
For the week ahead, 93 companies in the S&P 500 index
SPX,
and 12 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
components, are set to report quarterly results.
Mark your calendars! Here is MarketWatch’s full earnings calendar for the week
Among the highlights: General Electric Co.
GE,
reports Tuesday for the first time since splitting off its GE HealthCare Technologies
GEHC,
business. 3M Co.
MMM,
— which makes Post-it Notes, duct tape, air filters, adhesives and coatings — also reports Tuesday, after the company in October said the costs of raw materials, a big driver of inflation, were showing signs of easing.
And as demand for goods eases amid worries about a downturn, a number of railroad operators that ship those goods report during the week. Union Pacific Corp.
UNP,
whose lines ship across the Western half of the U.S., reports on Tuesday, while CSX Corp.
CSX,
which covers much of the East, reports Wednesday. Norfolk Southern Corp.
NSC,
also reports Wednesday.
Telecom giants Verizon Communications Inc.
VZ,
AT&T Inc.
T,
and Comcast Corp.
CMCSA,
report Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Results there will offer a clearer sense of the state of demand for Apple Inc.’s
AAPL,
iPhones, as premium models suffer from production snags, and for broadband, which saw heightened demand when more people were staying home due to the pandemic.
Southwest, post-meltdown: Southwest Airlines Co.
LUV,
which reports on Thursday, will offer executives with plenty to answer for, after bad weather and an overloaded, aging scheduling system caused thousands of flight cancellations over the holidays.
For more: Southwest Airlines turns to repairing its reputation after holiday meltdown
The implosion has raised questions about the air carrier’s investments in its own technology — after restarting dividend payments shortly before the disruptions — and airlines’ ability to handle the post-lockdown travel rebound. The breakdown has underscored the airline industry’s bigger issues with understaffing, after 2020’s wave of departures, as carriers try to reload flight schedules to meet pent-up travel demand.
Scott Kirby, chief executive at United Airlines Holdings Inc.
UAL,
said during his company’s earnings call last week that he felt the industry’s goals to expand their flight coverage this year and beyond were “simply unachievable.” And he said that airlines that tried to follow prepandemic patterns were destined to face trouble. He said manufacturers were suffering from delays in building jets, engines and other parts, and that airlines had outgrown their technology infrastructure.
For more: United Airlines swings to profit despite ‘worst’ winter storm’
“All of us, airlines and the FAA, lost experienced employees and most didn’t invest in the future,” he said. “That means the system simply can’t handle the volume today, much less the anticipated growth.”
American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL,
Alaska Air Group Inc.
ALK,
and JetBlue Airways Corp.
JBLU,
are also expected to report results Thursday morning, along with Southwest.
Visa, Mastercard and consumer spending: The return of travel and entertainment, along with rising prices, have helped prop up consumer spending. But as Visa Inc.
V,
Mastercard Inc.
MA,
American Express Co.
AXP,
and Capital One Financial Corp.
COF,
prepare to report, their finance-industry counterparts are getting nervous — and taking more steps to pad themselves against the fallout from consumers struggling to pay their bills.
Credit-card issuer Capital One reports results on Tuesday, while card payments-network providers Visa and Mastercard report on Thursday, with Amex on Friday morning. They’ll report after shares of Discover Financial Services
DFS,
got hit last week after the company, which also offers credit cards and loans, set aside more money to cover souring credit, and reported a bump in its net charge-off rate — a measure of debt a company thinks is unlikely to be recovered.
Larger banks, like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM,
have also set aside more money to guard against credit losses.
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