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Spectrum News Weather Staff
Nationwide
PUBLISHED 10:00 AM EST Mar. 01, 2024
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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Jimmy Carter. Ronald Reagan. George H. W. Bush. Bill Clinton. George W. Bush. Barack Obama.
You’ve heard of each of those presidents, but you probably haven’t heard of Warren Washington, the scientist who advised all of them on Earth’s climate. It’s no wonder; he also helped develop one of the first climate models.
Washington was a pioneer in more than just weather and climate. He was just the second African American to get a doctorate in meteorology, earning his PhD from Penn State in 1964.
Warren Washington standing next to a CRAY supercomputer in 1980. (UCAR)
To put that in perspective, a report from the American Institute of Physics says that only 14 out of the 740 students to graduate with a bachelor’s degree in atmospheric science as recently as 2015 were African American.
From the 1960s onward, Washington studied the Earth’s climate system, building simulations that got more detailed as computers became more powerful. Early climate models were crude and slow.
“We weren’t able to go faster than the actual weather. We actually plowed on because what happened was computers got faster and faster,” he told NASA in a 2016 interview.
But, as computers got faster, Washington and his colleagues added more detail into the climate models.
Output from an early climate model in the late 1960s. (UCAR)
Washington used those computer models to experiment with various scenarios, tweaking the amount of carbon dioxide and other gasses to see what the different outcomes would be.
This is routine today. Scientists want to know what to expect if we do nothing to limit greenhouse gas emissions or suddenly stop all of it or something in between.
Washington earned many accolades and awards for his decades of work. In 2010, the country awarded him the National Medal of Science, the U.S. government’s highest scientific honor. He’s also been recognized for his efforts to increase diversity in atmospheric sciences.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts
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Peanuts–that may be what George Washington Carver is best known for, but that was just one part of his work. Arguably more important? He was an advocate of sustainable agriculture before the concept even had such a name.
Carver was the first Black student admitted to the Iowa Agricultural College, now known as Iowa State University. He went on to be an educator and researcher at the Tuskegee Institute in Alabama from 1896 to 1943.
He even took weather observations there for over 30 years as part of a “cooperative observers” program, which the National Weather Service still uses today.
George Washington Carver’s daily weather reports for February 1923. (NOAA Central Library Data Imaging Project)
Carver knew the issues that Southern farmers faced. He encouraged efforts that went against the grain of agricultural science at the time, according to Mark D. Hersey, a historian at Mississippi State University. His efforts didn’t result in much change then, but he was certainly on to something.
“They were farseeing–and many of the things he called for became vital threads in what came to be known as the organic agriculture movement in the mid-20th century… in essence, Carver was a prophet of sustainable agriculture,” says Hersey.
Instead of growing only cotton, Carver recommended crop rotation that included peanuts so those crops could replenish the soil’s nutrients.
Carver’s holistic approach also encouraged composting manure, rather than simply adding chemical fertilizers. This was a cheaper solution that also made the soil more resistant to erosion, Hersey adds. The South gets deluges that drop a few inches of rain in a day, which can wash away the dirt and leave behind ruts.
Photograph of erosion in one of Carver’s bulletins, published in 1908. (Tuskegee Experiment Station Bulletin No. 11/U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Library)
In one of the many bulletins he wrote, Carver noted some farmers’ belief that the moon influences the weather, along with other superstitions. He said to focus instead on actual conditions, since he knew seeds need some number of frost-free days and a certain soil temperature.
“My work is that of conservation,” Carver believed. We still hear echoes of that work a century later in sustainable farming.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts
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Dr. DaNa Carlis is breaking barriers as the first African-American to lead NOAAâs National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma.
The laboratory studies severe weather, from tornadoes to winter weather. The National Weather Service uses their research to warn us and keep us safe from disruptive weather events.
NOAA appointed Carlis to the role in January 2023. Carlis is the first Black man named as a lab director.
We spoke to the NSSL director in 2023 about his historic appointment, his future for the NSSL and how he plans to inspire more Black Indigenous People of Color (BIPOC) in meteorology.
âIt feels amazing! I am humbled by the opportunity to serve in this capacity as director of the National Severe Storms Laboratory,â said Carlis, describing his accomplishment.
A few years ago, the NSSL Director didn’t think he’d be taking this path in his career. However, he said he was striving for an opportunity to be a leader of science within NOAA.
Carlis is excited to inspire the next generation of science leaders.
âIâm looking forward to continuing to uplift others with the BIPOC community that can serve in this capacity. Itâs been a passion of mine to help and develop the next generation workforce,â said Carlis.
Over his 20-year career, Carlis led efforts to advance diversity, equity and inclusion within NOAA. Heâs the co-founder of NOAAâs Diversity and Professional Advancement Working Group (DPAWG).
Eight members of NOAA’s Diversity and Professional Advancement Working Group in 2023. Clockwise from the top left: Vankita Brown, John Moore, Terence Lynch, Maddie Kennedy, DaNa Carlis, Lonnie Gonsalves, Ashley Turnbull, and Janae Elkins. (NOAA)
Carlis knows how big of a deal it is to be the first African-American to lead this agency.
âIâm a firm believer that there are more talented people than me out there that will deserve this opportunity and probably have deserved it in the past. So, that Iâm the first is humble… but you know I got to continue to strive for change and NOAA is right behind me in terms of diversity, inclusion and equity in our senior leadership ranks,â Carlis told Spectrum News.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. supports Carlisâ mission. Spinrad gave this statement in a news release: âNOAA is fortunate to have a leader with deep scientific expertise and the strong skills to elevate diversity, equity and inclusion into all aspects of NSSLâs culture.â
The role is a homecoming for Carlis, who grew up in Tulsa. Carlis is happy to be back in his home state and doing what he loves.
âI am going to full circle, returning to my roots of being in Oklahomaâ¦. I have kept myself grounded on who I am and where I come from,â said Carlis.
The Tulsa native says his upbringing made him the man he is today.
The NSSL director credits his mentors with sparking his passion for science.
âIt was mentors that really drew me in and after that first course in atmospheric science I fell in love with it because it was so applicable to peopleâs everyday lives,â Carlis recounted.
He also takes great pride in graduating from Howard University, a Historically Black College and University (HBCU) in Washington D.C.
âThe main thing that really helped me⦠that I really needed was the support system. I needed to believe in me, I needed to be supported by people that was going to help raise me up and make sure and hold me accountable for being excellent, being a high achiever⦠thatâs what Howard University gave to me,â Carlis told us.
âI got to go in and learn the organization. So, Iâll sit back and listen for a few months and try to figure out⦠where we need to improve weather that is on the business side or science and technology side,â said Carlis.
The severe storms lab is a busy place, with its PERiLS project, radar improvements, field campaigns and much more.
The NSSL director says his mission for the agency is to meet their goals and make sure they’re successful. One of his priorities is to increase the engagement between the underserved communities and the NSSL.
âThe integration of social science and physical sciences like in meteorology and atmospheric is going to be really key to us being able to engage and serve those folks that are from underserved communities even better,â said Carlis.
In addition, Carlis thinks this is an opportune time for aspiring meteorologists to get into the field. He has this advice for them.
âI would love to see more African-American, Black meteorologists or just BIPOC meteorologist coming into this field because it just such a gratifying field of work that we do because of the impact that we have on peopleâs lives⦠so we need you.â
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Keith Bryant
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In honor of Black History Month, we are taking the opportunity to look back on and celebrate the life and work of meteorologist June Bacon-Bercey.
A woman of many “firsts,” Bacon-Bercey broke many barriers and paved the way for others, particularly for women and African Americans in meteorology.
Noted as the first African American and first female degreed broadcast meteorologist, Bacon-Bercey is considered a pioneer in the field of meteorology. Born in 1928 in Wichita, Kansas, ever since she was a kid, she knew she wanted to follow a path of math and science.
In 1954, she became the first African American female in the United States to earn a bachelor of science degree in meteorology from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA).
According to her official biography provided by her daughter, Dail St. Claire, when she arrived at UCLA, a counselor suggested she major in home economics instead of meteorology.
Bacon-Bercey once said, “when I earned an ‘A’ in thermodynamics and a ‘B’ in home economics, I knew my decision was the right one.”
Her biography also states that her career extended well beyond television weather. Before retiring from a position at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 1993, she held positions as a weather forecaster, weather analyst, radar meteorologist, aviation meteorologist, broadcast journalist, public administrator and educator.
She had a lasting impact on the field of broadcast meteorology, especially during a time when weather broadcasts within local newscasts were considered more entertainment-based than science-focused.
June-Bacon Bercey on set at WGR-TV in Buffalo, N.Y. (Courtesy: Dail St. Claire)
In 1972, she became the first African American and first female to earn the AMS Seal of Approval for Excellence in Television Weathercasting.
Her daughter recalled the day that her mother got the news of this accomplishment. “She was beaming. We sat down over tea, as she often did with me to discuss life matters. Upon sharing the significance of the Seal, she said, ‘no greater honor can come to me than earning the respect of my colleagues.’”
This came after joining WGR-TV in Buffalo, New York, in 1970, where she became the chief meteorologist after just four months at the station. This was a remarkable feat for the era.
Nearly five decades later, a 2018 study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society revealed that only 8% of chief meteorologists are female.
Bacon-Bercey became a role model to many African American aspiring meteorologists, including Janice Huff, Chief Meteorologist at WNBC in New York.
“When I was a child, I never saw anyone who looked like me delivering the forecast on television, so I never thought of broadcasting as an option for a future career. I wanted to be a scientist and work behind the scenes, and I was on my way to doing just that. Then I learned of June Bacon-Bercey, and I was certain that any and all things were possible,” said Huff.
Alan Sealls, Chief Meteorologist at WPMI-TV in Mobile, Alabama also has been moved by the life of Bacon-Bercey. He described her as “a woman who likely opened doors for women, African-Americans, and degreed meteorologists in broadcast meteorology.”
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, Director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia who served as the second African American president of the American Meteorological Society, shared his appreciation for Bacon-Bercey. “I cannot imagine the struggles that Mrs. Bacon-Bercey faced as she trailblazed on behalf of women and people of color,” he said.
Women’s issues and racial equality were of the highest importance to Bacon-Bercey. She helped launch the AMS Board on Women and Minorities in 1975, which continues to operate to this day. It was renamed the Board on Representation, Accessibility, Inclusion, and Diversity (BRAID) in 2020.
In 1977, it wasn’t weather, but her music knowledge that awarded her $64,000 on the game show “The $128,000 Question.” She used her earnings to launch the June Bacon-Bercey Scholarship through the American Geophysical Union (AGU) for women pursuing careers in meteorology and atmospheric sciences.
She felt the scholarship could help women become meteorologists. “I was discouraged from becoming a meteorologist. If women feel they have some money behind them, it might be better,” she stated according to her official biography.
AGU offered this scholarship from 1978 to 1990. It became reestablished in 2021 through the generosity of her daughter, Dail St. Claire, and other family and friends.
June Bacon-Bercey speaking at a luncheon. (Photo Courtesy: Dail St. Claire)
Bacon-Bercey also funded the meteorology lab at Mississippi’s Jackson State University (JSU) in 1980. At the time, JSU was the only historically black university or college with a meteorology program in the United States.
Janice Huff remarked on her achievements. “She showed great strength and determination to study in a field where there were so few who looked like her. She persevered despite the odds against her, and for that, I am eternally grateful.”
Bacon-Bercey passed away in July 2019 at the age of 90. Her legacy will live on for generations to come through the American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) June Bacon-Bercey Award for Broadcast Meteorology.
The AMS renamed the Award for Broadcast Meteorology in her honor. Since 1977, this award has annually recognized broadcast meteorologists “for sustained long-term contributions to the community through the broadcast media, or for outstanding work during a specific weather event.”
Since its inception, three Award for Broadcast Meteorology recipients have been female. By honoring Mrs. Bacon-Bercey’s legacy, women and minorities might be encouraged to strive for this award and submit future nominations.
Her daughter, Dail St. Claire, reflected on this honor. “My family and I are grateful to the AMS for honoring my mother, June Bacon-Bercey. There is no greater honor for an on-air meteorologist to serve the public. The field of meteorology will one day fully represent the rich diversity of all people.”
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Maureen McCann
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Becoming an astronaut is hard enough, but one woman overcame obstacles to become the first African American woman in space.
Born in the 1950s, Jemison would let nothing stop her from becoming one of the most accomplished African American women in history.
She was born in Decatur, Ala. but grew up in Chicago, and from a very early age, she knew she wanted to study science.
She worked hard and graduated from high school when she was just 16. At that early age, she traveled across the country to California to attend Stanford University.
Being one of the few African Americans in her class, she experienced racial discrimination from students and teachers, but that didn’t stop her from graduating with two degrees in four years, one in chemical engineering and one in African American studies.
Jemison didn’t start her career in space. She first attended Cornell Medical School, where she got her doctorate in medicine and practiced general medicine.
Her talents also didn’t stop in science. Jemison is fluent in Japanese, Russian and Swahili. She used this and her medical studies to her advantage and joined the Peace Corps in 1983 to help people in Africa for two years.
Jemison with the rest of the Endeavour Crew in 1992. (AP Photo/Chris O’ Meara)
After the Peace Corps, Jemison opened her own private practice as a doctor, but not too long after, she decided she wanted to go to space, something she had wanted to accomplish for a long time.
Jemison applied for the astronaut program at NASA in 1985. Unfortunately, NASA stopped accepting applications after the Space Shuttle Challenger exploded in 1986.
Jemison tried her luck again in 1987 and was one of the 15 people chosen out of 2000 applicants. Nichelle Nichols, who starred as Uhura in the original Star Trek series, recruited her. Jemison later starred in an episode of the series after being a fan since childhood.
In Sept. 1992, she joined six other astronauts on the Endeavor for eight days, making her the first African American woman in space. On her mission, she made 127 orbits around the Earth.
Mae C. Jemison on board the Endeavour in 1992. (Photo by NASA)
Jemison left NASA the year after she went to space and accomplished many more things.
She started her own consulting company, became a professor at Cornell, launched the Jemison Institute for Advancing Technology in Developing Countries, created an international space camp for teens and much more.
She currently leads 100 Year Starship through DARPA, United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which works to ensure humans will travel to another star in the next 100 years.
With all her accomplishments, it’s no surprise Jemison was inducted into the National Women’s Hall of Fame, the National Medical Association Hall of Fame and the Texas Science Hall of Fame.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shelly Lindblade
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Mother Nature, flowers and candy could be your recipe for finding a love for all seasons or Valentine’s Day.
It is that time of the year, when romance is in the air. But can the weather, or even the season, spark love? Or do less than ideal conditions dampen love’s flame and blow it out?
We talked to celebrity matchmaker and dating expert Alessandra Conti, co-founder of Matchmakers In The City in Beverly Hills.
We chatted with her about how the time of season and weather might influence someone’s dating behavior.
Autumn may be the best season to ‘fall’ in love. Many people refer to the fall as cuffing season for couples.
Conti says cuffing season is the time between September and November. She told us during those months the weather gets colder and people want to find love for the holidays.
“Everyone wants love for the holidays. Especially leading up to the holidays, that’s when people who are normally single want to be in relationships,” Conti told Spectrum News.
The matchmaking maven says her business is booming during cuffing season for people wanting to find love just in time for Thanksgiving or Christmas.
“[People] will usually fast track something that they maybe did not consider in the summertime.”
The cuffing part comes in as people just wanting to find a partner for the colder months and just come together during that time.
Though cuffing season runs through November, it might be the best opportunity to breakup with someone.
Conti says the day after Thanksgiving is the time when couples break apart. The celebrity matchmaker calls it the “turkey drop.”
“You can see it in tons of celebrity couples, that right after Thanksgiving so many couples breakup,” Conti said.
She said couples like Harry Styles and Olivia Wilde broke up during that time too, among other couples.
Conti says a lot of couples “turkey drop” right after Thanksgiving.
We are a month into the new year and finding that special someone is top priority for some singles. When a new year begins, Conti says people are deliberate about wanting to find love.
“While cuffing season is over, it’s the new year season, which is people desiring to find that partner,” Conti told us.
As far as other seasons like spring and summer, she says business doesn’t experience that same uptick in clientele during the winter and fall months.
Like cuffing season, there is also the something known as a summer fling. A summer fling is between May and September.
“You see more casual dating during the summertime because that’s more of the weather vibe. It’s sunny out, everyone is relaxed… there’s not that deep longing for connection because it’s freezing cold outside and you want to be cuddling with someone indoors,” Conti said.
Now let’s talk about how the weather could lead you to heartbreak or romance.
Conti laments many dates get cancelled because of bad weather.
“It is really sad, but a lot of people do if it’s raining. We have experienced that people will cancel a date if it’s raining… even if it’s through a matchmaker.”
She notes that people really don’t enjoy driving in the rain to go on a date. However, she has one important piece of advice if there is rain or snow in the forecast for a date.
“My advice to anyone considering in canceling a date if it’s raining or snow… Don’t, you are self sabotaging yourself!,” exclaimed Conti.
The dating expert said this sabotaging equates to flakiness. She says you have to follow through on the plan.
“You need to make a shift and make a change. If that means going on an ice skating date, go for it… if that means leaving your house when it’s drizzling outside, go for it!” exclaims Conti.
The ideal weather for date ranges from person to person. Some like sunny and while others enjoy overcast skies.
Talking with Conti, she says colder weather might actually be more romantic.
“I actually think a little colder for a date, actually quite romantic, as long as you are indoors… it’s very cozy. So get a really cute winter jacket and enjoy,” she said.
Conti might be right about colder weather, because one of the greatest Christmas songs “Let It Snow!” is a romantic song about a couple getting cozy during a blizzard (even though the songwriters wrote it in the summer).
It all comes down to the people’s preference.
“I don’t think cold weather is bad for a date. I think it’s cozy. If it’s a little rainy outside, it makes your indoor experience more special and romantic. Use it to your advantage,” Conti told Spectrum Networks.
The perfect weather for a date may be in April, if you are Miss Rhode Island from the movie “Miss Congeniality.”
But for others, it could be something else. We talked to our Spectrum News meteorologists and digital weather team about their ideal weather for date. Watch their responses.
No matter what season you’re in, you have to be intentional about finding love and being in the moment.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Keith Bryant
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Guion Bluford was one of the most influential people in the space community, becoming the first African American to fly in space.
Bluford became intrigued with flying at a very early age. By high school, he knew he wanted to become an aeronautical engineer.
After getting his college degree, Bluford joined the Air Force and received his pilot wings in Jan. 1966 at the early age of 24.
He soon became an instructor pilot and eventually entered the U.S. Air Force Institute of Technology, where he received his master’s degree in 1974 and a doctor of philosophy degree in aerospace engineering in 1978.
Upon his graduation in 1974, he worked in the Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory as a deputy until he was promoted to branch chief of the Aerodynamics and Airframe Branch.
These successes led to his selection to the NASA astronaut program in 1978.
It’s safe to say he never lost sight of his childhood dreams.
Guion stands on the launch pad with his crew weeks before his first mission in August of 1983. (AP Photo/Phil Sandlin)
After a year of training in the astronaut program, Bluford became an official astronaut in Aug.1979.
Only four years later he flew his first mission aboard STS-8 on Aug. 30, 1983.
His first trip to space was quick but came with many accomplishments, developing techniques for nighttime operations and deploying the Indian National Satellite.
After 145 hours in space, the crew returned to Edwards Air Force Base on Sept. 5.
Over the next 10 years, Bluford became the second, third and fourth African American in space, logging over 688 hours.
In 1993, Bluford left NASA and retired from the Air Force to become the Vice President and General Manager of the Engineering Services Division of NYMA Inc., in Greenbelt, Maryland.
After several more high-end jobs, he went on to become the President of Aerospace Technology in Cleveland, Ohio, a job that he still holds today.
Bluford never stopped learning and pursuing the next level of his career. A brilliant man in the space and engineering community, Bluford became a leader and role model for many African Americans.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shelly Lindblade
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Few humans can say they were a part of the mission that allowed astronauts to land on the moon in 1969. Only the prestigious can claim they have a mountain in their name – not on earth, but on the moon.
Melba Roy Mouton is now one of the handful of scientists and mathematicians that do.
While Melba Mouton was not one of the “hidden figures” unveiled and featured for their success at NASA during the late 1950s and 1960s, her story is no different. As a Black female working in a prominently male-dominated field, she too faced the brutal reality of discrimination.
Yet, her relentless determination and curiosity allowed her to overcome obstacles. All of which lead her to become a prominent leader as a mathematician and computer programmer in the Space Race era.
Melba Mouton was born in the late 1920s and spent much of her childhood in Virginia during the difficult times of the Great Depression and Word War II. Despite this, she still pursued her passion for math.
She attended the historically Black college, Howard University, earning both a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in mathematics.
Mouton began her NASA career at the Goddard Space Flight Center in 1959. By the early 1960s, she worked as a lead computer programmer for the Mission and Trajectory Analysis Division’s Program Systems Branch, to compute where spacecraft were in orbit and their trajectories.
This eventually put her as the head mathematician, helping to track the Echo 1 and 2 satellites.
(Photo by NASA)
NASA awarded Mouton the Apollo Achievement Award for all of her contributions toward the famed Apollo 11 mission, that allowed astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin to first step foot on the moon (while third crewmember Michael Collins piloted the command module).
Ending her career at NASA as the Assistant Chief of Research Programs for the agency’s Trajectory and Geodynamics Division, Mouton finally retired in 1973. Years later, doctors diagnosed Mouton with brain cancer and she passed away in 1990 at age 61.
On Feb. 15, 2023, NASA announced they would name a mountain on the moon after Mouton in honor of all her accomplishments during her time at the agency. With all mountains on the moon referred to as mons, “Mons Mouton” is now the official name of the lunar mountain near the South Pole.
Naming a mountain, or any other topographic features, on the moon isn’t as easy as you think. NASA can only suggest potential names, but it does not have the final say in determining whether the name is confirmed.
Only the International Astronomical Union (IAU) can approve a name and there’s a designated committee that handles that: the Working Group for Planetary System Nomenclature (WGPSN).
The WGPSN has certain guidelines it must follow when accepting and choosing a name, whether it be a mountain on the moon or any other astronomical object. To view the set of rules they must abide by, click here.
According to NASA, the IAU declared that the name for lunar mountains must reflect “scientists who have made outstanding or fundamental contributions to their fields.”
Given all her accomplishments in the field, it makes sense that the name Mouton was a strong candidate, and thus, approved by the IAU.
Since Mons Mouton has a relatively flat top, NASA claims it is one of the potential landing spots for Artemis III, the first manned mission to the moon, scheduled in 2026.
Although Mons Mouton will first serve as the location for NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) mission set to happen later in 2024.
Please be sure to check out the tribute video NASA put together honoring Melba Mouton, while discussing its plans for Mons Mouton as a potential landing and research site on the moon.
Whether Mons Mouton is the selected landing site for the Artemis III mission or not, the gesture of honoring one of NASA’s greatest scientists comes full circle. With all her efforts to get us to the moon, it is only fitting that her name and her legacy earn a spot among the stars.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shawnie Caslin
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Groundhog Day is arguably the biggest weather holiday of the year. On Feb. 2 each year, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his burrow at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania. Thousands of people gather around, curious to know if Phil sees his shadow.
As the legend has it, when Phil sees his shadow, it means there are six more weeks of winter ahead of us. No shadow indicates an early spring.
Phil has forecast the weather on Groundhog Day for more than 120 years. But as it turns out, he isn’t that good at his job.
Watch the video above to see how many times he’s gotten the forecast wrong and find out how we came to rely on Phil in the first place.
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Meteorologist Nick Merianos
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will experiment with some tweaks to the way the cone of uncertainty is presented this hurricane season.
Instead of just displaying watches and warnings at the coast, the NHC will distribute display all tropical watches and warnings through inland areas in a new graphic on their website.
“The absence of displaying those warnings inadvertently gives the impression that it’s all clear in the more inland locations,” says Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, Jamie Rhome.
Here is a look at what the new experimental cone will look like.
For reference, here is what the traditional cone of uncertainty looks like.
Studies have shown that it is common for people to misinterpret the cone of uncertainty.
For instance, according to a study by Colorado State University, people perceive the widening of the cone toward the end of the forecast period to mean that the storm will be getting bigger.
In reality, widening the cone is just communicating a greater degree of uncertainty as to where the center of the storm will pass. It is independent of the size or intensity of the storm.
The NHC hopes to reduce misinterpretation with a new look to the cone, and this new experimental graphic is a step in that direction.
“I suspect we will have to make other changes in the realm of hurricane risk communication as time marches on,” says Rhome. “we want to move people off the cone and onto the hazards.”
Other changes could come to the cone in the future, but the National Hurricane Center wants feedback from professionals and the public before going any further.
“That’s what this experimentation is about, to start a discussion and open up a forum and a venue for people to talk to us about what changes need to be made in hurricane risk communication,” says Rhome.
Even with slight changes to how the cone is displayed, the meaning of the cone of uncertainty, along with tropical watches and warnings, will not change.
The traditional, operational cone of uncertainty will continue to be distributed by the NHC. The new, experimental, graphic will be available on the National Hurricane Center Website.
Here’s a look at the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson
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Sports betting has become increasingly popular over recent years, and bettors are always trying to find an edge.
For outdoor sporting events, weather is one of the biggest variables, and RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has spent the past 10 years combining his weather knowledge and passion for sports to help bettors.
From football, baseball and golf, to NASCAR, tennis, soccer and even the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, if it’s outdoors and sports-related, he’s made a forecast for it.
After earning a master’s degree in meteorology and working on TV for 10 years, Kevin Roth saw that there was a need in the fantasy sports world for real forecasts provided by an actual meteorologist, not just a low-quality automated forecast.
He provides forecasts and live weather updates for outdoor sporting events, and breaks down how the weather could affect the game with the lens of a fantasy sports player or a sports bettor.
In football, fantasy sports players get an entire week to digest the latest forecast and can decide who to start until kickoff. Sports bettors don’t get the same luxury if they want to maximize their profit, since betting lines and totals are fluid.
You might think that ‘cold weather teams’ like Kansas City, Buffalo or Green Bay have a built-in advantage during the playoffs when the calendar flips to January, and the weather could offer bitter cold temperatures, high winds and snow.
Earlier this month on Jan. 13, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins during the AFC Super Wild Card Weekend in a frigid matchup. The kickoff temperature was -4 degrees with a wind chill of -20 degrees, making it the fourth coldest game in NFL history.
But Roth says he’s a firm believer that cold or snowy weather doesn’t inherently favor a ‘cold weather team’ over a ‘warm weather team,’ like Tampa Bay or Miami.
“The cold, wind and snow impacts all humans the same in a physiological way. Patrick Mahomes [Kansas City Chiefs quarterback] will get the same cold fingers in those conditions that Tua [Miami Dolphins quarterback] would.”
In football (and other sports), the weather can really make its presence known with high winds. Kicking a field goal or throwing a deep ball is much more difficult with a brisk wind in your face, versus when it’s at your back.
According to Roth, baseball is the most interesting sport for weather effects since every single factor (rain, wind, temperature, humidity, elevation) plays a significant role in the expected outcome.
Since there are 162 games a year, and hundreds of pitches thrown each game, there is a large sample size to help isolate variables and determine how weather affects the game. Baseball is the only major team sport where every ballpark has unique dimensions, so the impacts can vary depending on where ballplayers play the game.
Roth says “in Chicago’s Wrigley Field, a southerly wind creates a jet stream effect that helps balls sail over the fence for home runs. A 15 mph wind blowing out in Wrigley can increase home run probabilities by over 50%. If you were to take that same wind, blowing out at 15 mph, to San Francisco’s Oracle Park, the wind only accounts for a 5% increase in home runs, as that stadium was specifically designed to minimize the impact of those winds.”
Temperature and humidity is a variable that applies to all ballparks more equally. Most of the season (April through October) athletes play in the thick of the warm summer months. Since hotter air is less dense, offensive players score more runs during the dog days of summer since the air is thin. Routine pop-ups can carry further, sometimes becoming a home run.
In the northern climates, teams there play those early and late season games in temperatures between 30 to 40 degrees. Roth says “the cold, dense air mass will limit how far a well-hit ball will travel, and what would have been a home run in 70 degree weather suddenly becomes a fly out.”
If you’re a sports fan, you’ve heard of home field advantage. Oddsmakers and sports books will factor in 2 to 3 extra points for the home team in football games when creating lines, determining the favorite and underdog.
Some factors baked into home field advantage include the crowd, home stadium familiarity, potential officiating bias and the lack of travel, sometimes visiting teams travel across multiple time zones. But how does the weather factor in?
Roth says you have to consider elevation, since it’s the exception to the ‘this impacts everyone equally rule.’ “Our bodies take time to adjust to elevation, so any visiting team thrust into a game at elevation (i.e. – Denver) is immediately at a disadvantage when compared to players whose bodies are already acclimated to the thinner air at elevation.”
Denver Broncos defensive end Matt Henningsen (91) leaves the field during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)
Roth says that Colorado teams have the best home field advantage, since the elevation change and thin air can cause fatigue in more active sports, and change the way a pitch breaks in baseball.
Roth says he’s focusing on “quantitative over qualitative.” He’s been compiling weather data on every outdoor baseball game since 2000 and the statistical results (runs, home runs, ERA, strikeouts, etc) of those games.
The large sample size has allowed him to isolate weather as an individual variable, and the next step he plans is taking that data and applying it to the gambling odds or totals.
Instead of saying “it’s hot and winds are blowing out, that’s great for hitting,” he can definitively say “in 72 games with similar heat and wind in this ballpark, we’ve seen a 48% increase in home runs and a 20% increase to runs scored compared to average.”
You can check out RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth’s forecasts here:
Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger
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Few species have their sex determined by temperatures, but for sea turtles it’s almost a certainty.
However, this natural occurrence could become a biological disadvantage as global temperatures continue to rise, leading to larger gender disparities.
The differences in reproduction between humans and sea turtles extend beyond the obvious ‘one lays eggs while the other does not.’ One key difference between the two is how sex is determined.
For humans and many other species, gender is determined from the by sex chromosomes when fertilization occurs. But this is not the case with sea turtles and other reptiles, given that they lack sex chromosomes.
For them, the gender of their offspring is determined after fertilization, and the deciding factor all depends on temperature. This kind of sexual determination is called temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD).
Building their nest onshore, a female will lay their eggs in the sand, where they will continue to develop before hatching about two months later.
A baby Olive Ridley sea turtle crawls to the sea past discarded turtle eggs at Ostional beach on the northern Pacific coast of Costa Rica, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2007. (AP Photo/Kent Gilbert)
Higher temperatures stimulate more aromatase activity. This yields an increase in female hormones and thus, the baby sea turtle will hatch as a female.
On the contrary, cooler temperatures limits aromatase activity. This promotes male hormones to dominate, and so the sea turtles that hatch will be male.
(AP Photo/Cody Jackson)
According to NOAA, sand temperatures of 88.8 degrees or more will yield female sea turtles, while sand temperatures of 81.86 degrees or less will produce males.
Eggs incubated in sand temperatures falling between these two thresholds will cause a mix of male and female sea turtles.
Following the world’s warmest year on record in 2023, rising global temperatures will likely upset gender diversity within sea turtle populations in the years to come.
(NOAA)
Researchers from Florida Atlantic University Marine Lab announced warmer nest temperatures in recent years have produced more female hatchlings, some years even recorded no male offspring at all.
As the male sea turtle populations continue to decrease, growing disparities in gender could ultimately endanger the species’ existence in the future.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shawnie Caslin
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Have you ever wondered where all the rain goes? It goes to the same place as snowmelt when temperatures thaw out in the spring.
It’s called a river basin, or a watershed, and whether you know it, all the land we stand on is part of a river basin.
Some water will seep into the shallow ground, moving through the soil and helping keep grass, trees and plants healthy. It can even travel deeper down, recharging groundwater aquifers.
Once the ground becomes saturated, a river basin collects runoff and excess water and drains it into a larger body of water.
Depending on where in the basin, it can move into small bodies of water like creeks, streams and rivers, and eventually to outflow points into larger bodies of water like a reservoir, bay or the ocean.
In the U.S., most rain runoff eventually finds its way into the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, or the Great Lakes.
This map below from Grasshopper Geography shows all the permanent and temporary streams and rivers of the Lower 48 in the U.S., divided into catchment areas.
River basins of the United States. (Robert Szucs/www.grasshoppergeography.com)
The Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (highlighted in pink) is one of the largest in the world. It includes parts or all of 31 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces, collecting precipitation for 41% of the contiguous United States.
The Mississippi River’s water level closely correlates to precipitation totals across the basin. Persistent, heavy rainfall or excessive snowmelt can cause high water levels and put sections of the river into flood stage, threatening communities along the river.
Conversely, severe drought across the Mississippi River basin can lead to low water levels, which can disrupt the shipping industry and expose some oddities from the bottom of the river.
When snow melts, the water goes to the same place that rain would go. Generally, 10 to 12 inches of snowfall produces 1 inch of liquid water.
In the western U.S. mountains, environmental and utility experts work to conserve that water and replenish lakes and reservoirs that shrink or dry up during times of drought. In the Central U.S., most of the snowmelt ends up in the Mississippi River.
The annual snowpack in mountain ranges can help forecast potential flooding concerns when temperatures warm up. If there’s a large snowpack, rapid snowmelt can cause flooding.
Below, you can see a video from Dec. 2023, after heavy rainfall and snowmelt from warm temperatures combined and led to significant flooding and high waters in Fairfax, Vt.
It’s more common during the spring, but also possible if temperatures climb well above normal during winter.
Snowmelt can be just as important as rain for areas when it comes to recharging groundwater and supplying freshwater for people and animals. Less snowfall means less snowmelt and less water that could be resourceful for us.
Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger
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Every spring, the World Meteorological Organization releases a list of names for hurricanes that season.
But why don’t we name any other storm, particularly winter storms?
We have unofficially named winter storms throughout history.
Storms such as The Great Blizzard of 1888, a storm that brought feet of snow to the Northeast and killed over 400 people, or a more recent storm in 2010, Snowmageddon, that crippled the mid-Atlantic with snow.
But naming winter storms didn’t become regular until 2012, when a television weather company did so. At the time, this decision divided the weather community. Some saw the practice as more of a publicity stunt than a way to save lives, as they did not consult any official weather agency.
After 5 years of The Weather Channel naming winter storms, an ad hoc committee of the American Meteorological Society conducted a study and agreed that there was no evidence to support that the naming of storms increases the safety of the public.
Even though the U.S. does not name storms other than tropical cyclones, the UK Met Office started officially naming storms in 2015. They not only name winter storms, but powerful storms that form throughout the year that cause substantial impact.
Each area in the UK has different criteria for naming storms, but the fun part is that the public can suggest names for the upcoming year.
However, the National Weather Service still stands on the side of not naming winter storms, but what is the reason?
I talked to Maureen O’Leary, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service, and she said, “unlike tropical storms, winter storms are diverse with conditions that evolve throughout the storm’s life. That is why our forecasts, watches and warnings focus on specific impacts such as wind conditions, snowfall, ice, temperature, visibility and other impacts.
“Winter storm conditions can vary widely and over a very large area, from community to community. It’s critical that people understand how a storm will impact them, in their area, or where they are going.”
She also said there are no plans to consider naming winter storms.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shelly Lindblade
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Winter means cold, and winter plus wind equals colder! The term to describe the combination of wind and cold is “wind chill.”
First, understand that our bodies lose heat through convection.
When we are outside and there is little to no wind, the air temperature is the same temperature we feel. There’s little to no difference between the two.
In the example below, the outside temperature is 20 degrees, and it feels like it because a layer of that heat remains around our body to help us stay warm.
When it is windy, the moving air breaks up the insulating warm layer. This wind helps to speed up the heat loss and makes the body feel much colder outside.
Add in a 20 mile per hour wind to an outside temperature of 20 degrees, and it doesn’t feel like 20 degrees anymore. Instead, the wind chill is only 4 degrees!
The wind chill temperature is calculated based on the temperature and wind speed. Check the chart below to determine the wind chill and how long it takes to get frostbite.
At the top of the chart you’ll find the air temperature, and on the left is the wind speed. When you line up those two factors, where they meet is the wind chill.
Frostbite happens when body tissue freezes; your hands, feet, and nose usually freeze first. Your body protects your vital organs by cutting circulation to those extremities and focusing it on the most important places.
We’ve fought wearing jackets since we were kids, but one of the easiest ways to keep yourself safe from frostbite or hypothermia is by dressing appropriately. Wearing layers and cover all exposed skin (including fingers, toes, ears, nose and so on).
How you fuel your body can also help you stay safe. Stay hydrated because that increases your blood volume, which in turn helps prevent frostbite.
Avoid caffeine and alcohol. Caffeine constricts your blood vessels, which prevents the warming of your extremities. Alcohol reduces shivering, which is the body’s attempt to keep you warm.
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Meteorologist Robyn King
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Learn how wind can affect the outside temperature.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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Every year, avid sky gazers book their calendar full of events that are sure to have you looking up. And 2024 promises to bring a series of events you don’t want to miss.
North America is set for dozens of potential sky gazing events during 2024. From a pair of eclipses to a brand new comet and several meteor showers, here are the top five astronomical events for North America in 2024.
The most anticipated event of the year across the nation will come in April when the Great American Solar Eclipse will streak across the United States.
On April 8, 2024, the nation will be greeted by the moon passing right in front of our sun, creating a breathtaking experience for those who can reach totality. While the entire nation will enjoy the eclipse, only a few select states will get the joys of totality.
Totality occurs when the moon blocks out the entire sun from view, leading to a darker sky resembling if it were dawn or dusk.
A look at the path of the total solar eclipse.
Just prior to totality, another phenomenon known as Baily’s beads will occur. These beads look like distinct balls of light found just on the edge of the moon’s surface as it passes in front of the last bit of the sun.
Baily’s beads are caused by the sun’s light shining through the craters on the surface of the moon and will flicker on and off as the sun passes through the valleys of the moon’s surface.
Totality will be enjoyed by states like Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York and Maine. Totality will last for nearly four and a half minutes in cities across Texas—the longest in the nation.
Just two weeks before the total solar eclipse, the nation will be greeted by an eclipse of a different kind. On March 24-25, 2024, the nation will observe a penumbral lunar eclipse.
Often, during a total lunar eclipse, the moon passes through the inner shadow of Earth, known as Earth’s umbra. During that passage, the moon darkens noticeably, and can produce a unique nighttime effect.
But during a penumbral lunar eclipse, the moon stays out of the inner shadow and only breaches Earth’s outer shadow, known as the penumbra.
During a lunar eclipse, the moon passes by Earth’s shadow.
This leads to a less deep and typically less dramatic eclipse. Sometimes it can even be mistaken as a normal Full Moon event versus an actual eclipse.
Regardless, this eclipse will be found nationwide. The best time to view the eclipse will be around maximum eclipse time, when one half of the moon will appear slightly darker than the other half.
A favorite of sky gazers alike, planetary alignment is expected in late June across the nation. This celestial alignment will feature the planets Jupiter, Mars and Saturn along with our Moon.
During this alignment, you can expect to find all the planets and our moon situated near one another in the eastern sky during sunrise.
If you are heading east during your morning commute, you may notice all these celestial bodies shining brightly next to the moon, resembling stars.
Often called the most reliable meteor shower of the year, the Perseid meteor shower will happen in the heart of August. The peak of the shower will occur on the nights of Aug. 12 and 13.
The Perseid shower is caused by Earth’s movement through a debris cloud left behind from the comet Swift-Tuttle, a comet last passed by Earth in 1992.
Two Perseid meteors, centre and lower left, streak across the sky during the annual Perseid meteor shower above a forest on the outskirts of Madrid, in the early hours of Monday, July 28, 2014. (AP Photo/Andres Kudacki)
2024 is likely to be a decent year for this shower, as the moon will only be illuminated 50%. This should allow for between 200 to 350 meteors an hour if you can get to a place with no light pollution. For those in cities, expect that number to be closer to 40 to 60 meteors an hour.
While there is a bit of a debate about how big this event may be, October will bring a new comet to the skies of Earth.
Discovered back in Feb. 2023, Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will make its closest pass to Earth’s Northern Hemisphere during October. The comet will be roughly 44 million miles away from our planet, or roughly 100 million miles closer than our closest neighbor, Mars.
The comet will appear too close to the sun to be seen in early October, but it will get into a better position for observation around and after Oct. 14.
Comet Hale–Bopp. (NASA)
Scientists are still debating how visible the comet could be on Earth, but some scientists believe this could be a very bright passing, outshining some of the brightest stars in our sky during the peak passage.
A few scientists believe it could be the brightest comet in our skies since Comet Hyakutake in 1996 or Comet Hale-Bopp in 1997. Comet Hale-Bopp was the most observed comet in human history.
If these hypotheses prove to be correct, Comet C/2023 A3 could feature a very prominent tail that observers could see with their own eye.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey
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Many people are looking forward to the spectacular New Year’s Eve fireworks shows. However, everything from snow, wind and humidity can affect not only if you can launch those rockets into the sky, but also what they will look like.
Clear skies, light winds and low humidity make for a great show. Extra moisture in the air can distort the colors and make them less vibrant.
Less humidity also means we can enjoy the show a little more because we don’t feel sticky.
(Bradly J. Boner/AP Images for EUKANUBA™)
Snow is okay when it comes to fireworks.
The only problems are heavy snow can obscure the colors, and crews need to keep the fireworks dry in times of heavy snow or they might not light.
We also need to have the right amount of wind. Light wind might not clear the smoke quickly enough, affecting how well you can see the fireworks.
Too much wind can blow smoke or embers around, endangering people.
Smoke from a fireworks display at Chicago’s Navy Pier filters through the skyline on wind currents from Lake Michigan. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
Light rain is okay when it comes to fireworks, as long as they are covered or in waterproof bags. A wet fuse will not light.
Storms and heavy rain can lead to canceled or delayed shows. Lightning can pose a major threat, sometimes striking unlit fireworks or even people.
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Drought conditions can also cause problems. The fallout from fireworks can spark fires when there’s a lot of dry vegetation.
Each year, fireworks spawn many fires.
(Photo by Heather Morrison)
If there is a bad drought happening in your area, avoid setting off fireworks. Often, local authorities will ban the use of fireworks in high fire risk or drought conditions.
However, bigger shows might launch over bodies of water to accommodate for a drought.
So, keep these in mind if you plan on setting off fireworks. Check the forecast first and stay safe!
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shelly Lindblade
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