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  • Pac-12 MBB power rankings: Only Gonzaga and Utah State are safe for the NCAAs as San Diego State stumbles

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    Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of the reconstituted conference using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Here is last week’s edition, which examined how three  Big Ten teams are undermining Gonzaga’s resume.

    A brutal week for San Diego State was, consequently, the worst week of the season for the future Pac-12.

    The Aztecs dropped two games they should have won and slid onto the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, leaving the conference that doesn’t exist (yet) staring at just two bids for March Madness.

    Gonzaga is a lock. The only unknown for the Zags is whether they can claim a No. 2 seed.

    And Utah State, despite a loss at Nevada, appears safe for the time being.

    San Diego State was the only other member of the rebuilt nine-team Pac-12 with a reasonable chance to qualify for the at-large field.

    But after a face plant at home against Grand Canyon and a road loss to Colorado State — both count as Quadrant II defeats — the Aztecs could miss the NCAAs for the first time since 2019.

    Their NET ranking (44) is in the danger zone, largely because they have just one Quadrant I victory.

    Perhaps more concerning is their position (54) in wins-above-bubble ranking, which measures how each team has performed against its schedule compared to how an average bubble team would fare. (The WAB was added to the selection process last season.)

    All of which leaves the Pac-12 reliant upon upsets in the conference tournaments in order to send a third future member into the upcoming NCAAs:

    — It needs Washington State or Oregon State to win the West Coast Conference and claim the league’s automatic bid. That seems unlikely: They are 0-6 against the WCC’s powers, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and only one of the six games was close.

    — Or it needs San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State or Boise State to win the Mountain West. Unreasonable? Hardly. The conference is wide open. But that means one of the schools not headed to the Pac-12 could be the last one standing.

    — Or it needs Texas State to win the Sun Belt title, an outcome that appears far more plausible today than it did a few weeks ago. The Bobcats have won seven of their past eight and defeated several of the frontrunners during their late-season run.

    That would be quite the twist: A school invited to join the Pac-12 entirely because of its football value providing a boost on the basketball side.

    To the power rankings …

    (Results and NET rankings through Sunday)

    1. Gonzaga (27-2)

    Results: won at San Francisco 80-59, beat Pacific 71-62
    NET ranking: No. 5
    Comment: The Zags could not have asked for better results elsewhere in their pursuit of the highest possible seed in the NCAA Tournament. Losses by UConn, Iowa State, Nebraska, Houston, Kansas (and others) all allowed Gonzaga to improve its position relative to the top group. (Previous: 2)

    2. Utah State (23-4)

    Results: beat Boise State 75-56, lost at Nevada 80-77
    NET ranking: No. 24
    Comment: Another loss in conference play could nudge the Aggies uncomfortably close to the bubble. In our view, their impressive NET ranking is a false indicator. Drill down on the metrics that matter, and their resume has some flaws. (Previous: 1)

    3. Boise State (16-11)

    Results: lost at Utah State 75-56, beat San Jose State 84-69
    NET ranking: No. 62
    Comment: The Broncos don’t have enough quality wins to counteract all their bad losses. The net impact on their NET ranking is decidedly negative. (Previous: 4)

    4. San Diego State (18-8)

    Results: lost to Grand Canyon 73-63 and at Colorado State 83-74
    NET ranking: No. 44
    Comment: The Aztecs are stout as ever defensively under coach Brian Dutcher but rank 108th nationally in offensive efficiency, according to the Pomeroy ratings, which measure points-per-possession adjusted for opponents. (Previous: 3)

    5. Colorado State (17-10)

    Results: won at UNLV 91-86, beat San Diego State 83-74
    NET ranking: No. 88
    Comment: The Rams have won five in a row and will finish February with Fresno State (home) and San Jose State (road), so they very well could carry a seven-game winning streak into March. And as we noted, the Mountain West tournament is wide open. (Previous: 8)

    6. Oregon State (15-14)

    Results: beat Pepperdine 83-73
    NET ranking: No. 183
    Comment: The Beavers will enter the West Coast Conference tournament as one of the most difficult teams to project. Unless they face Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s, any outcome is possible. They have looked surprisingly stout at times and predictably poor at others. (Previous: 5)

    7. Washington State (12-17)

    Results: beat Pacific 87-70, lost to Saint Mary’s 83-67
    NET ranking: No. 130
    Comment: Hard to believe but a top-four seed in the WCC tournament is a distinct possibility for the Cougars, who close the regular season at Pepperdine and LMU. (Previous: 6)

    8. Texas State (18-12)

    Results: won at South Alabama 90-82, lost at Louisiana 67-54
    NET ranking: No. 240
    Comment: We’ll know far more about the Bobcats at the end of the week. They host first-place Appalachian State on Thursday in the regular-season finale. (Previous: 9)

    9. Fresno State (12-15)

    Results: lost at Wyoming 92-82 and to New Mexico 80-78
    NET ranking: No. 133
    Comment: The Bulldogs are last here because of their season-long resume. But if the new Pac-12 existed today, we might pick them to win a game in the conference tournament. (Previous: 7)

    *** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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    Jon Wilner

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  • College football picks: Mammoth Saturday features Washington in the Big House, the Holy War, USC-Notre Dame and key games for Arizona, ASU

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    Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 5-5. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.

    The third Saturday in October is typically a tad early for tipping-point games, but that’s exactly the situation, for better or worse, for Arizona and Arizona State.

    Both teams are fresh off defeats that were stark contrasts in margin but comparable in the predicaments they created.

    Arizona’s come-from-ahead loss to BYU in overtime, combined with developments across the Big 12, seemingly have thrust the visit to Houston into must-win territory — or whatever is a half step from that terrain.

    What of Arizona State? Playing without quarterback Sam Leavitt (and their entire defense, apparently), the Sun Devils were blasted off the line of scrimmage and out of Rice-Eccles Stadium. The lopsided loss to Utah left coach Kenny Dillingham and Co. with no margin for error entering the back half of their midseason double-whammy.

    Next comes Texas Tech, with its $30 million roster (roughly), undefeated record, No. 7 ranking and designs on dethroning Arizona State as Big 12 champions.

    Because the Sun Devils (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) also lost at Mississippi State, a defeat Saturday would knock them from at-large contention for the College Football Playoff — they aren’t getting in with three losses — and eliminate any cushion in their pursuit of the conference title.

    They would have to win out and hope the Big 12 tiebreaker (with other teams at 7-2) propels them into the championship game as the No. 2 seed.

    Put another way: The Sun Devils would be in a more precarious position in the middle of October than they were at any point last season during their stunning run to the CFP.

    But if the Devils rise up and take down the Red Raiders, everything changes. They would be vastly better positioned for a spot in the Big 12 championship, thanks in part to the tiebreaker advantage over Texas Tech.

    Arizona’s goals were not as lofty when the season began, then ticked up after the Wildcats rolled to a 3-0 start.

    At the midpoint of coach Brent Brennan’s season, it’s clear from the lopsided defeat at Iowa State and the overtime loss to BYU that the Wildcats aren’t ready to contend for the title. But their victories over Kansas State and Oklahoma State are proof of substantial year-over-year improvement.

    Exactly where Arizona (4-2, 1-2) falls in the Big 12 hierarchy will become clear Saturday — as will its prospects for a postseason bid.

    The Wildcats must win two of their final six games to become bowl-eligible. That task is more difficult than it appears, given the recent performance of several looming opponents.

    The visit to Houston is a toss-up game according to the oddsmakers and any rational assessment of the competing personnel.

    Then comes a trip to Boulder, where Colorado showed life last week in a victory over Iowa State.

    Then comes a home date with Kansas, which is 0-3 against ranked teams but 4-0 otherwise.

    From there, the Wildcats make the long trip to No. 24 Cincinnati, which has far exceeded expectations and could be this year’s version of Arizona State.

    The home schedule concludes with Baylor, which is three points away from being tied atop the Big 12 standings.

    The Wildcats wrap up Brennan’s second season with the Territorial Cup and all the challenges ASU brings.

    All in all, Arizona’s final six opponents have a combined record of 25-13.

    Four of the games are on the road.

    Can the Wildcats win two of the six? Absolutely. But a loss at Houston, which is hardly the most difficult assignment, would suggest zero guarantees ahead for the Wildcats.

    The Big 12 has three bottom feeders: UCF, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have already beaten OSU and don’t play the other two.

    From here, nothing is easy.

    If the Wildcats lose Saturday, the path into the postseason becomes vastly more treacherous.

    To the picks …

    Season record: 36-36-1
    Five-star special: 3-4

    (All times Pacific)

    North Carolina (+10) at Cal
    Kickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
    Comment: Generally, we avoid picking Cal as a home favorite, especially as a double-digit home favorite. (Under Justin Wilcox, the Bears have repeatedly played down to the level of their competition.) But the Tar Heels are dreadful, their chemistry is poor and their head coach has checked out. If the Bears don’t cover, there’s a problem. Pick: Cal

    Washington (+5.5) at Michigan
    Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
    Comment: Ohio State’s defense is beyond elite, so UW’s 24-6 loss a few weeks ago should carry limited weight when assessing the Huskies. And after watching Michigan’s lopsided loss at USC, we’re starting to seriously consider the possibility that the Wolverines are no better than mediocre. Feels like an upset. Pick: Washington

    Arizona (-1.5) at Houston
    Kickoff: 9 a.m. on FS1
    Comment: Arizona’s performance in the Red Zone has been substandard, and nothing turns a winnable game into a gut-punch loss like settling for three points instead of securing seven. With the early kickoff, the Wildcats can’t afford a sluggish start. Pick: Houston

    UNLV (+11.5) at Boise State
    Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1
    Comment: The Rebels are undefeated (6-0) but have played one of the softest schedules in captivity and just gave up 48 points to an opponent (Air Force) that has one win. But we have little faith in this edition of Boise State, which has handled Mountain West showdowns impressively in the past. Pick: UNLV

    Texas Tech (-9.5) at ASU
    Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Fox
    Comment: We’re assuming both quarterbacks will play, although ASU’s Sam Leavitt could be healthier — and hence more effective — than Texas Tech’s Behren Morton. How will the Sun Devils hold up at the line of scrimmage? They were just overrun by an opponent (Utah) that the Red Raiders manhandled a few weeks ago. Pick: ASU

    Washington State (+17.5) at Virginia
    Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on The CW
    Comment: The Cougars mustered a terrific performance last weekend at Mississippi and were within range of a major upset. But this assignment is far more difficult, partly because of the logistics (another distant road game) and partly because Virginia won’t take the Cougars lightly after the scare they gave the Rebels. Pick: Virginia

    Oregon (-17) at Rutgers
    Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network
    Comment: A long trip awaits the Ducks after a demoralizing loss (to Indiana), but there’s no better formula for getting back on track than a mediocre opponent with a turnstile defense: Rutgers is No. 135 nationally (out of 136 teams) in yards-per-play allowed. The Ducks should be sitting on 40 when the fourth quarter begins. Pick: Oregon

    Maryland (+3.5) at UCLA
    Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
    Comment: The Terps are coming off back-to-back home losses (to Washington and Nebraska) and now must make the long trip to face a hot opponent. The Bruin Bounce, as the post-DeShaun Foster upturn is known on the Hotline, will end soon. But not this weekend. Pick: UCLA

    Tennessee (+8.5) at Alabama
    Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
    Comment: Kalen DeBoer’s wardrobe selection Saturday evening (i.e., the Black Hoodie of Death) matters far less to us than the game location: The Crimson Tide have been unbeatable in Tuscaloosa under DeBoer. This should be close for three quarters, but Tennessee doesn’t have the defense to withstand the final onslaught. Pick: Alabama

    USC (+9.5) at Notre Dame
    Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
    Comment: Notre Dame’s losses have come by three points to No. 2 Miami and by one point to No. 4 Texas A&M — we think the Irish are even better than their No. 13 ranking. Are the Trojans capable of making the cross-country trip in the middle of Big Ten play and holding their ground for 60 minutes in what’s tantamount to a playoff-elimination game? Nope, but they should hold up for 58 minutes. Pick: USC

    Utah (-3.5) at BYU
    Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Fox
    Comment: The prime time slot on Fox is the broadcast window this rivalry deserves and heaps attention on a critical game for Utah coach Kyle Whittingham’s legacy. The winner becomes a frontrunner to reach the Big 12 championship while the loser has a steep climb. With plenty of focus on quarterback Devon Dampier and Utah’s offense against BYU’s granite defense, we suspect the outcome hinges on BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier’s success — or lack thereof. Pick: Utah

    Straight-up winners: Cal, Washington, Houston, UNLV, Texas Tech, Virginia, Oregon, UCLA, Alabama, Notre Dame and Utah

    Five-star special: Oregon. Dan Lanning will have the Ducks ready for an impressive bounce-back performance against an opponent that can offer little in the way of resistance.

    *** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

    *** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline

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    Jon Wilner

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  • Week 11 picks: Breaking down the Holy War, Cal’s long trip, Washington’s huge challenge and a key game for Oregon State

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    The trends suggest Utah is the play Saturday night as a home underdog in the first Holy War in three years.

    Even though the Utes have dropped four in a row and changed playcallers and quarterbacks.

    Even though Brigham Young is undefeated and churning toward a date in the Big 12 title game.

    Even though the Cougars have eight wins and the Utes have four.

    And when the trends speak, the Hotline typically listens. Here’s what they say:

    — Utah has dominated the series, winning 14 of the past 20 matchups and seven of the past nine at Rice-Eccles Stadium.

    — The underdog covered the spread in 15 of those 20 games.

    — When one team has at least three more wins than the other at the time of kickoff, the team with the better record is 3-0 straight up but 1-2 against the spread.

    Those same fundamentals exist this week with the Utes as a four-point home underdog.

    But in a season that makes no sense, with the Cougars and Utes in a role reversal for the ages, our instinct is to avoid the sensible and dismiss the trends.

    To ignore the lure of the home underdog in a series that favors the home underdog.

    Our instinct is to take BYU, give the points and watch the current trajectories continue.

    The Utes find ways to lose.

    The Cougars find ways to win.

    We don’t know how it will unfold but fully expect the unexpected. And in a series dominated by the underdog, the unexpected result would be a decisive victory by the favorite.

    To the picks …

    Last week: 4-3
    Season: 50-35-1
    Five-star special: 5-5

    All picks against the spread
    Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

    (All times Pacific)

    Cal (-7) at Wake Forest
    Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on the ACC Network
    Comment: The Bears as a touchdown favorite on the road? That presents an opportunity we cannot ignore — an opportunity to take the home underdog. Pick: Wake Forest

    San Jose State (+4) at Oregon State
    Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on The CW
    Comment: The Beavers have struggled defensively against the run (186 yards per game), but SJSU has no running game to speak of. First-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, who previously coached Navy’s triple option, is all about the aerial game. That should benefit the Beavers. Pick: Oregon State

    South Carolina (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
    Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on the SEC Network
    Comment: Few teams across the land have been better against the spread than the Commodores, who have covered in all five SEC games. The Gamecocks will be riding high after their upset of Texas A&M and underestimating their opponent. Pick: Vanderbilt

    UCF (+3) at Arizona State
    Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN2
    Comment: This feels like a pump-the-brakes game for the Sun Devils, who clinched a bowl berth last week and will be feeling good about their trajectory — a bit too good, in our view. Another unexpected result in the wild Big 12. Pick: UCF

    Washington (+13.5) at Penn State
    Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Peacock
    Comment: There’s no better time to visit Happy Valley than the week after Penn State suffers a gut-punch loss to Ohio State. We aren’t sure the Huskies can make enough plays offensively to win, but they should be in position to cover if the Nittany Lions start with an OSU hangover. Pick: Washington

    Brigham Young (-4) at Utah
    Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
    Comment: Both teams had two weeks to prepare, so there’s no competitive advantage either way. One of several crucial differences between the Cougars and Utes is success in situational football: The former scores touchdowns on two of every three trips inside the Red Zone; the latter scores on fewer than half their Red Zone opportunities. Field goals won’t cut it. Pick: Brigham Young

    Utah State (+20.5) at Washington State
    Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on The CW
    Comment: The Aggies have one victory over an FBS opponent (Wyoming) while the Cougars have one loss to an FBS opponent (Boise State). This should not be close. And it won’t be, at least in the fourth quarter. Pick: Washington State

    Straight-up winners: Wake Forest, Oregon State, Vanderbilt, UCF, Penn State, Brigham Young and Washington State

    Five-star special: Brigham Young. The Cougars are 7-1 against the spread this season; the Utes are 2-6. Let’s not over-complicate the situation.

    *** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

    *** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline

     

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    Jon Wilner

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