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President Joe Biden will end the twin national emergencies for addressing COVID-19 on May 11, as most of the world gets closer to normalcy nearly three years after the emergencies were first declared, the Associated Press reported.
The move would formally overturn the federal response to the virus and change it to one where COVID is treated as an endemic threat to public health, much like the flu, which returns seasonally but can be managed without major disruption to the healthcare system.
The…
In the biggest week of the holiday-earnings season, Big Tech results will receive the spotlight amid thousands of layoffs that could only be the beginning.
After tech stocks were decimated in 2022, investors will be looking for signs of a turnaround in holiday reports and potential forecasts for the year ahead from three of 2022’s top five market-value losers: Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
Apple Inc.
AAPL,
and Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
The other two stocks on that list — Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
— reported last week, and Microsoft’s results in the wake of a mass-layoffs announcement did not bode well for its Big Tech brethren.
See also: Microsoft could be the cloud sector’s ‘canary in the coal mine’
Those companies — along with Google parent Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL,
GOOG,
— will deliver results after finding themselves in unfamiliar territory: A backdrop of layoffs amid slowing demand for core products like digital ads, electronics and e-commerce, after a two-year pandemic surge and a two-decade-plus honeymoon with investors. Some analysts say the bottom hasn’t arrived, for either their finances or their workforces.
The one Big Tech company that hasn’t taken a sword to its payroll is Apple, which also increased its staff the least among the group during the COVID-19 pandemic. Apple shed $846 billion from its market cap last year, and now reports after its core product was part of the smartphone industry’s worst year since 2013 and worst holiday-season decline on record. The iPhone maker could also face questions from Wall Street about changing up its product sourcing, which has relied heavily on China, a nation whose COVID-19 restrictions have constrained production of some phones.
While the tech-industry layoffs have yet to hit Apple, some analysts say the company is unlikely to be spared, despite Chief Executive Tim Cook requesting and receiving a healthy cut to his compensation.
“Similar to other big technology companies, we expect Apple to adjust its head count to reflect an increasingly challenging global macroeconomic environment,” D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte said in a research note Tuesday.
Rivals that have already cut could face more if profit continues to fall along with revenue growth. Alphabet, for instance, is cutting 12,000 employees, but an activist investor has already said that is not enough considering how much the company grew during the pandemic, and the difficulties it now faces in the online-ad sector.
Opinion: Microsoft’s big move in AI does not mean it will challenge Google in search
Analysts have said Meta’s “darkest days” are still ahead, as it navigates a round of more than 11,000 layoffs, competition from TikTok and its early stumbles in the metaverse. While cutting, Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has promised to keep spending on metaverse development, even as the efforts slash the Facebook parent company’s previously healthy bottom line.
“In 2023, we expect Meta to remain engulfed in arduous battles inside the Octagon,” Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White said in a research note on Thursday. “In the long run, we believe Meta will benefit from the secular digital ad trend and innovate in the metaverse; however, regulatory scrutiny persists, internal headwinds remain, and we believe the darkest days of this downturn are ahead of us.”
Full Facebook earnings preview: Meta’s ‘darkest days’ are ahead, but some analysts say ad sales are still on track
Online retailer Amazon
AMZN,
was the first Big Tech company to publicly declare cost-cutting was in order a year ago, and still coughed up $834 billion in market value in 2022. It kicked off 2023 with plans to lay off more than 18,000 workers as struggles continued throughout last year, when inflation siphoned away more consumer dollars toward essentials.
Amazon’s own AWS cloud-infrastructure unit has helped to drive sales in years past, as businesses built out their tech infrastructures. But remarks and the outlook from Microsoft executives — the third-biggest market-cap loser of 2022, and a big barometer for tech spending overall — weren’t exactly encouraging for cloud growth: Executives there last week warned of “moderating consumption growth” for its own cloud business.
For more: One company could determine whether U.S. corporate profits rise to a record in 2023
“Sentiment was already bearish on AWS, with investors looking for slowing revenue over the next three quarters, largely confirmed after Microsoft earnings and conversations with industry checks,” Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein said in a note on Wednesday. “Positively, we believe e-commerce revenue has stabilized, and margins should improve from organic scale and announced head-count reductions.”
Layoffs are also starting to spread beyond Big Tech companies that grew fast during the pandemic in response to massive demand spikes. International Business Machines Corp.
IBM,
confirmed plans for 3,900 layoffs as it reported earnings, despite already reducing its workforce by at least 20% during the pandemic.
One sector to watch is semiconductors, where a chip shortage has turned into a glut: Chip-equipment maker Lam Research Corp.
LRCX,
announced layoffs in the past week as Silicon Valley semiconductor giant Intel Corp.
INTC,
displayed “astonishingly bad” results while laying off workers. When Intel rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
reports this week, it could determine whether there is any silver lining in the semiconductor storm.
Earnings preview: AMD faces even more scrutiny after ‘astonishingly bad’ Intel outlook
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a Sunday note that a common theme of this week’s Big Tech earnings will be that “tech layoffs will accelerate with more pain ahead to curb expenses,” though he added that “Apple will likely cut some costs around the edges, but we do not expect mass layoffs from Cupertino this week.”
Big Tech earnings were a salve to other problems in the market for the past decade-plus, but with layoffs already under way and doubts about the path forward, don’t expect salvation from their results this week.
For the week ahead, 107 S&P 500
SPX,
companies, including six members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
will report results, according to FactSet. While more Dow components reported last week, this will be the busiest week for S&P 500 holiday earnings of the season, FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters confirmed to MarketWatch.
Appliance-maker Whirlpool Corp.
WHR,
reports on Monday, after it forecast fourth-quarter sales that were below expectations, following what it called a “one-off supply-chain disruption” and the pandemic home-renovation boom.
On Tuesday, package-deliverer United Parcel Service Inc.
UPS,
reports, amid questions about holiday-season demand. So does streaming service Spotify Technology,
SPOT,
following its own layoffs and suggestions of possible price hikes, as well as McDonald’s Corp.
MCD,
amid concerns that rising prices are keeping people from dining out. Exxon Mobil Corp.
XOM,
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT,
Snap Inc.
SNAP,
and Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
also report Tuesday.
Earnings outlook: McDonald’s earnings haven’t been hit by higher prices
On Wednesday, T-Mobile US Inc.
TMUS,
reports, in the wake of a data breach and wobbling cellphone demand. Coffee chain Starbucks Corp.
SBUX,
reports on Thursday, with analysts likely to be zeroed in on U.S. demand and China’s reopening, after executives said they were confident that higher prices, along with enthusiasm from younger customers and for customizable drinks, could help them navigate any potholes in the economy.
For the Big Tech companies, Thursday is also the big day: Apple, Amazon and Alphabet will report that afternoon, after Meta reports the prior day.
WWE upheaval: World Wrestling Entertainment Inc.
WWE,
reports earnings on Thursday, as Vince McMahon — who returned to the professional-wrestling organization this month following allegations of sexual misconduct — seeks a buyer or some other so-called “strategic alternative” for the company.
Analysts have speculated how the company’s wrestling events and backlog of media content might be repurposed, with some entertaining the possibility of interest from Amazon or Netflix Inc.
NFLX,
But WWE has struggled to develop story lines that stick with viewers, and has thinned its ranks of wrestlers.
The Wall Street Journal this month reported that McMahon would pay a multimillion-dollar settlement to a former referee who accused him of raping her. Among the changes since McMahon returned was the departure of his daughter, who had been promoted to co-CEO after he stepped down from the role last year.
There isn’t much clarity on whether Vince McMahon will be on Thursday’s earnings call, which was moved from the morning to the afternoon due to a scheduling conflict. But it should offer drama no matter who attends.
GM and Ford auto sales: Auto makers General Motors Co.
GM,
and Ford Motor Co.
F,
will issue results on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, amid signs of waning demand and rising interest rates that have made car loans more expensive. Despite falling new-vehicle sales in the third quarter, GM managed to keep its own sales higher, the AP noted.
Mary Barry, GM’s chief executive, called out the popularity of vehicles like the Escalade, the Chevrolet Bolt EV and some pickups and SUVs during the auto maker’s third-quarter earnings call in October. During that quarter, GM said it completed and shipped nearly 75% of the unfinished vehicles held in its inventory in June. She said supply-chains were opening up again, but added that “short-term disruptions will continue to happen.”
The auto makers report as they try to put a chip shortage and other production constraints behind them. But some forecasts call for 2022 auto sales, or sales volumes, to be the weakest in roughly a decade. Electric vehicle maker Tesla’s recent price cuts could also cut into GM’s and Ford’s own EV sales.
A Food and Drug Administration advisory panel voted unanimously Thursday for Americans to get a once-a-year booster against COVID-19, with the strain to be decided midyear for a fall campaign, the Associated Press reported.
“This is a consequential meeting to determine if we’ve reached the point in the pandemic that allows for simplifying the use of current COVID-19 vaccines,” said the FDA’s Dr. David Kaslow.
The panel agreed that people should get the same vaccine formula whether they’re receiving their initial vaccinations or a booster. Today, Americans get one formula based on the original coronavirus strain that emerged in 2020 for their first two or three doses, and their latest booster is a combination shot made by Pfizer
PFE,
or Moderna
MRNA,
that adds protection against omicron.
The FDA would have to decide how to phase in that change.
COVID-19 vaccines have saved millions of lives, and booster doses remain the best protection against severe disease and death. But Americans are tired of getting vaccinated. While more than 80% of the U.S. population has had at least one COVID-19 shot, only 16% of those eligible for the latest boosters — so-called bivalent doses updated to better match more recent virus strains — have gotten one.
Separately, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention offered an update Friday on the strains that are dominant in the U.S., showing that XBB.1.5, the omicron sublineage that first emerged in small numbers in October, has extended its lead over other variants.
XBB.1.5 accounted for 61.3% of cases in the week through Jan. 28, the data shows, up from 49.1% a week ago. The prior dominant variants, BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, together accounted for 31.1% of new cases.
In the CDC’s Region 2, which includes New York, New Jersey, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, XBB.1.5 accounted for 91.1% of new cases, up from 86.8% the previous week.
The World Health Organization said this week that it now has data on XBB.1.5 from 54 countries, showing it has a growth advantage over other circulating strains but still appears no more severe.
In its weekly epidemiological update, the agency said it has raised the confidence level of its risk assessment for XBB.1.5 to “moderate” from “low,” using these additional reports. The highest number of XBB.1.5 cases are showing up in the U.S., the U.K., Canada, Denmark, Germany, Ireland and Austria.
The news comes as the seven-day average of new cases stood at 46,300 on Thursday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down 24% from two weeks ago. The daily average for hospitalizations was down 24%, at 34,833. The average number of deaths was 549, down 3% from two weeks ago.
Cases are currently climbing in eight states — Illinois, Tennessee, Minnesota, Alaska, South Dakota, Vermont, Kentucky and Kansas — as well as in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Washington, D.C.
Coronavirus update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• China’s claim that COVID cases and deaths have peaked and are falling fast is failing to take on board that testing is not keeping up with infections, the Guardian reported. China ended its zero-COVID policy in December and promptly saw a wave of cases spread across the nation. Its health authorities said this week that the worst is behind it, but experts are wary that it is underreporting numbers, as it has since the start of the pandemic. Now the pullback in testing is a factor, according to the Guardian. Daily tests had dropped to 280,000 by Monday, down from 150 million on Dec. 9, and 7.54 million on Jan. 1. Some provinces had enacted systems for collecting the results of residents or allowing residents to self-report, but the figures were “affected by the willingness of residents to test.”
• South Korea says it will continue to restrict the entry of short-term travelers from China through the end of February over concerns that the spread of COVID may worsen following the Lunar New Year holidays, the AP reported. South Korea in early January stopped issuing most short-term visas at its consulates in China, citing concerns about the virus surge in the country.
• Spain is set to end the mandatory use of face masks on public transport nearly three years after the start of the pandemic, the AP reported separately. Spanish Health Minister Carolina Darias said Thursday she would recommend that the government remove the health regulation when the cabinet meets on Feb. 7. Face masks will remain obligatory inside hospitals, health clinics, dentist offices and pharmacies.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed COVID-19 cases topped 669.9 million Wednesday, while the death toll rose above 6.82 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 102.3 million cases and 1,107,559 fatalities.
The CDC’s tracker shows that 229.6 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69.2% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 51.4 million Americans, equal to 15.5% of the overall population, have had the updated COVID booster that targets both the original virus and the omicron variants.
The World Health Organization has called on China to release more information about its current wave of COVID infections after China said nearly 60,000 people have succumbed to the virus since early December, the Associated Press reported.
The announcement of fatality numbers on Saturday came after weeks of complaints that China was not keeping experts abreast of what was happening.
The announcement “allows for a better understanding of the epidemiological situation,” said a WHO statement. Director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus talked by phone with Health Minister Ma Xiaowei, it said.
“WHO requested that this type of detailed information continued to be shared with us and the public,” the agency said.
The National Health Commission said only deaths in hospitals were counted, which means anyone who died at home is not part of the tally. It gave no indication of when or whether it might release updated numbers. China has seen a wave of cases ever since the government ended stringent restrictions on movement in December.
The WHO is now analyzing the data, which covers early December to Jan. 12. So far, the epidemiology is similar to what has been seen in other countries, “a rapid and intense wave of disease caused by known sub-variants of omicron with higher clinical impact on older people and those with underlying conditions,” said the statement.
The agency is hoping to get more information on the exact variants that are circulating. China has reported that two omicron sublineages, dubbed BA.5.2 and BF.7 are spreading but the WHO needs more sequences to be shared with open databases to get fully up to date.
See also: China reports first population drop in decades as birthrates plunge
In the U.S., the seven-day average of new U.S. COVID cases stood at 59,121 on Monday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s flat from two weeks ago and below the recent peak of 70,508 on Christmas Eve.
The daily average for hospitalizations was down 8% at 45,052. The average for deaths stood at 562, up 78% from two weeks ago to continue the recent trend.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said its real-time surveillance system has met the statistical criteria to prompt additional investigation into whether there is a risk of ischemic stroke in people ages 65 and older who received the Pfizer/BioNTech
PFE,
BNTX,
bivalent COVID vaccine. “Rapid-response investigation of the signal in the VSD (vaccine safety datalink) raised a question of whether people 65 and older who have received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent were more likely to have an ischemic stroke in the 21 days following vaccination compared with days 22-42 following vaccination,” the agency said in a statement. No such signal has been identified with the Moderna
MRNA,
bivalent vaccine, it added.
• Italian tennis player Camila Giorgi has denied allegations that she obtained a false COVID-19 vaccine certificate to allow her to travel, the AP reported. A doctor is under investigation in Italy for supplying false certificates and fake vaccines and Giorgi’s name was revealed in a long list of people implicated by an Italian newspaper. Giorgi is currently competing in the Australian Open.
• The New York State Department of Health is “exploring its options” after a state Supreme Court judge struck down a statewide mandate requiring healthcare workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19, the AP reported separately. Judge Gerard Neri wrote in a ruling released Friday that Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and the health department overstepped their authority by mandating a vaccine that’s not included in state public health law, the Syracuse Post-Standard reported. The mandate is “null, void, and of no effect,” the judge said. He sided with Medical Professionals for Informed Consent, a group of medical workers impacted by the vaccination mandate.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 667.3 million on Tuesday, while the death toll rose above 6.7 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 101.7 million cases and 1,099,885 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 229.4 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69.1% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 49.6 million Americans, equal to 15.9% of the overall population, have had the updated COVID booster that targets both the original virus and the omicron variants.
Nearly two years after biotechnology stocks began to tumble, executives at small and midsize companies in the space are finally accepting that share prices aren’t bouncing back anytime soon.
With reality setting in, it’s a buyer’s market for companies looking for acquisitions and partnerships, according to many of the pharmaceutical and medical technology executives who gathered at this year’s
J.P. Morgan
healthcare investor conference, which wrapped up in San Francisco on Thursday.
The XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant that has been dominant in the Northeast for several weeks is now officially dominant across the U.S., according to an update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention early Friday.
XBB.1.5 accounted for 43% of all COVID cases in the week through Jan. 14, pulling ahead of BQ.1.1, which accounted for 28.8% of new cases, and BQ.1, which accounted for 15.9%, the data showed.
Last week, BQ.1.1 was still dominant nationwide, accounting for 33.5% of new cases versus XBB.1.5’s 30.4%.
In the New York region, which includes New Jersey, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, XBB.1.5 now accounts for 82.7% of new cases, up from 72.7% a week ago.
On Thursday, the World Health Organization acknowledged that XBB.1.5, which was first detected in tiny numbers in the U.S. in October, has become the most transmissible variant yet thanks to a growth advantage, and said that it appears to have a greater ability to evade immunity than earlier variants.
However, the immune-escape data is based on preliminary lab-based studies and not on research in humans. And with the only data to review coming from the U.S., the agency said there’s no information yet on clinical severity.
XBB.1.5 is similar to its immediate predecessor XBB.1 but has an additional mutation to its spike protein that may be behind its growth advantage. For now, it does not appear to have any mutation that might lead to more severe disease or death, WHO officials have said. The agency is monitoring it along with five other omicron variants.
On Friday, the WHO updated guidelines on face masks, treatments and patient care in the age of COVID, a reminder that the pandemic is not yet over, even if people are mostly behaving as if it is. Given current global trends, the agency is recommending that people wear face masks when in public settings that are enclosed or poorly ventilated. People who have been exposed to the virus should also wear masks.
“Similar to previous recommendations, WHO advises that there are other instances when a mask may be suggested, based on a risk assessment,” the agency said in a statement. “Factors to consider include the local epidemiological trends or rising hospitalization levels, levels of vaccination coverage and immunity in the community, and the setting people find themselves in.”
The WHO reduced its recommended isolation period for COVID patients and said they can end isolation early if they test negative on a rapid test. Patients with symptoms should isolate for 10 days from the start of symptom onset, but the agency has dropped its advice for an additional three days.
For asymptomatic patients who test positive, the WHO now recommends five days of isolation, compared with 10 days previously.
The WHO extended a strong recommendation for the use of Pfizer’s
PFE,
antiviral Paxlovid for patients with mild to moderate symptoms who are at risk of hospitalization.
The data comes as the seven-day average of new U.S. cases stood at 60,610 on Thursday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s up 4% from two weeks ago and below the recent peak of 70,508 on Christmas Eve. The daily average for hospitalizations was up 10% to 45,842. The average for deaths was 564, up 61% from two weeks ago.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• The peak of China’s COVID-19 wave is expected to last two to three months and to soon extend over the country’s vast rural areas, where medical resources are relatively scarce, Reuters reported Friday, citing a Chinese epidemiologist. Infections are expected to surge in those areas as hundreds of millions of people travel to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year holiday, which starts Jan. 21. “Our priority focus has been on the large cities. It is time to focus on rural areas,” said Zeng Guang, the former chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to a report published in local media outlet Caixin on Thursday.
• Private services offering Chinese travelers access to mRNA vaccines are attracting droves of mainlanders to Hong Kong and Macau, the Guardian reported on Friday, as people seek a booster shot that their government has refused to approve. The government only allowed its citizens to get homegrown vaccines developed by Sinopac and Sinopharm
8156,
throughout the pandemic, but many people are now seeking the greater protection offered by the mRNA vaccines developed by Moderna
MRNA,
and by Pfizer and German partner BioNTech
BNTX,
• Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly plans to return to work at the Statehouse Friday after learning that a COVID-19 test earlier in the week gave her a false positive result, her office said, the Associated Press reported. Kelly has been working in self-isolation at the governor’s residence since the false positive Tuesday. Her office announced that she had tested positive for COVID-19, and she postponed the annual State of the State address from Wednesday to Jan. 24.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 666.3 million on Friday, while the death toll rose above 6.7 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 101.6 million cases and 1,099,629 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 229.4 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69.1% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 49.6 million Americans, equal to 15.9% of the overall population, have had the updated COVID booster that targets both the original virus and the omicron variants.
It may not have been a surprise to see the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 get hammered last year amid talk of a looming recession while the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to push back against inflation.
But the stock market always looks ahead. Following a decline of 19.4% for the S&P 500
SPX,
in 2022 and a 37.6% drop for the benchmark index’s consumer discretionary sector, this may be the time to begin looking for bargains.
And now, analysts at Jefferies have lifted the sector to a “bullish” rating.
In a note to clients on Jan. 10, Jefferies’ global equity strategist, Sean Darby, wrote: “A Goldilocks scenario might be unfolding for the U.S. consumer — falling inflation but steady employment conditions.”
He sees consumer confidence improving, in part because “households are still sitting on [about] $1.4 trillion of Covid savings.”
Darby pointed to a list of 18 consumer discretionary stocks favored by Jefferies analysts that was published on Jan. 6. Those are listed below, along with three stocks in the sector the analysts rate “underperform.”
The ratings of the Jefferies analysts for individual stocks is based on their 12-month outlooks for the companies, in keeping with Wall Street tradition.
So we have added another list further down, showing which companies in the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector are expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase sales the most through 2024.
Here are the 18 consumer discretionary stocks recommended by Jefferies analysts with “buy” ratings on Jan. 6, sorted by how much upside the firm sees for the shares from closing prices on Jan. 9:
| Company | Ticker | Jan. 9 price | Jefferies price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022 | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024 |
| Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. |
MODG, |
$20.76 | $56 | 170% | 32.8% | 10.0% |
| Bloomin’ Brands Inc. |
BLMN, |
$22.08 | $35 | 59% | 2.4% | 3.7% |
| Coty Inc. Class A |
COTY, |
$9.38 | $14 | 49% | -7.1% | 3.7% |
| MGM Resorts International |
MGM, |
$37.64 | $56 | 49% | -0.1% | 6.6% |
| Chewy Inc. Class A |
CHWY, |
$40.13 | $57 | 42% | 28.0% | 10.6% |
| Planet Fitness Inc. Class A |
PLNT, |
$82.36 | $115 | 40% | 10.4% | 13.9% |
| Molson Coors Beverage Co. Class B |
TAP, |
$50.21 | $69 | 37% | 0.5% | 1.4% |
| Fox Factory Holding Corp. |
FOXF, |
$99.90 | $135 | 35% | 28.1% | 6.6% |
| Hasbro Inc. |
HAS, |
$63.70 | $85 | 33% | 9.1% | 3.6% |
| Hostess Brands Inc. Class A |
TWNK, |
$23.10 | $30 | 30% | 14.2% | 5.0% |
| Lowe’s Cos. Inc. |
LOW, |
$199.44 | $250 | 25% | 10.6% | -1.9% |
| Walmart Inc. |
WMT, |
$144.95 | $175 | 21% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Dollar General Corp. |
DG, |
$241.05 | $285 | 18% | 10.9% | 6.7% |
| Church & Dwight Co. Inc. |
CHD, |
$82.25 | $97 | 18% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| McDonald’s Corp. |
MCD, |
$267.25 | $315 | 18% | 2.4% | 4.0% |
| Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. Class A |
EL, |
$261.63 | $304 | 16% | 2.8% | 5.8% |
| Mondelez International Inc. Class A |
MDLZ, |
$67.24 | $75 | 12% | 6.3% | 4.1% |
| Tapestry Inc. |
TPR, |
$41.25 | $45 | 9% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Sources: Jefferies, FactSet | ||||||
Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The two right-most columns on the table show estimated compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the companies over the past three calendar years and expected sales CAGR for two years through calendar 2024, based on the companies’ financial reports and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet.
(We used calendar-year numbers, some of which are estimated by FactSet for prior years, because some companies have fiscal years or even months that don’t match the calendar.)
The stock pick with the highest 12-month upside potential, based on Jefferies’ price target, is Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.
MODG,
This company has the highest estimated three-year sales CAGR on the list, and has the third-highest projected sales CAGR through 2024, after Planet Fitness Inc.
PLNT,
and Chewy Inc.
CHWY,
On Jan. 6, the Jefferies analysts also listed three stocks in the sector they rated “underperform.” Here they are, sorted by how much the analysts expect the stocks to decline over the next 12 months:
| Company | Ticker | Jan. 9 price | Jefferies price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022 | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024 |
| Lululemon Athletica Inc. |
LULU, |
$298.66 | $200 | -33% | 26.3% | 14.6% |
| Williams-Sonoma Inc. |
WSM, |
$122.17 | $98 | -20% | 14.1% | -0.3% |
| Harley-Davidson Inc. |
HOG, |
$43.25 | $39 | -10% | -2.8% | 4.4% |
| Sources: Jefferies, FactSet | ||||||
A look head at which companies are expected to increase sales the most over the next two years might serve as a good starting point for your own research.
Bear in mind that some of the companies in travel-related industries suffered declining sales for three years through 2022 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Some of those are on this new list of 20 stocks in the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector expected to show the highest two-year sales CAGR through calendar 2024:
| Company | Ticker | Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024 | Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022 | Share “buy” ratings | Jan. 9 price | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential |
| Las Vegas Sands Corp. |
LVS, |
59.2% | -32.6% | 79% | $52.78 | $53.53 | 1% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. |
NCLH, |
39.6% | -9.3% | 44% | $13.78 | $16.96 | 23% |
| Carnival Corp. |
CCL, |
35.2% | -14.7% | 30% | $9.47 | $10.11 | 7% |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
34.3% | 49.7% | 64% | $119.77 | $232.43 | 94% |
| Wynn Resorts Ltd. |
WYNN, |
29.3% | -17.5% | 53% | $94.33 | $96.07 | 2% |
| Royal Caribbean Group |
RCL, |
28.4% | -6.8% | 53% | $57.29 | $66.43 | 16% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. |
CMG, |
13.4% | 15.9% | 71% | $1,446.74 | $1,778.81 | 23% |
| Amazon.com Inc. |
AMZN, |
12.2% | 22.1% | 92% | $87.36 | $133.76 | 53% |
| Booking Holdings Inc. |
BKNG, |
11.9% | 3.9% | 63% | $2,208.41 | $2,307.67 | 4% |
| Aptiv PLC |
APTV, |
11.9% | 6.4% | 70% | $97.98 | $117.23 | 20% |
| Starbucks Corp. |
SBUX, |
11.2% | 7.2% | 42% | $104.74 | $103.44 | -1% |
| Etsy Inc. |
ETSY, |
11.1% | 45.3% | 50% | $120.99 | $124.04 | 3% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. |
HLT, |
10.1% | -2.9% | 38% | $129.08 | $146.17 | 13% |
| Expedia Group Inc. |
EXPE, |
9.0% | -0.9% | 50% | $93.77 | $125.65 | 34% |
| NIKE Inc. Class B |
NKE, |
8.1% | 5.8% | 62% | $124.85 | $126.15 | 1% |
| Marriott International Inc. Class A |
MAR, |
7.5% | -1.2% | 30% | $152.53 | $172.81 | 13% |
| BorgWarner Inc. |
BWA, |
7.1% | 15.3% | 53% | $42.24 | $46.93 | 11% |
| Tractor Supply Co. |
TSCO, |
6.8% | 19.0% | 61% | $217.48 | $232.34 | 7% |
| Yum! Brands Inc. |
YUM, |
6.7% | 6.4% | 47% | $129.76 | $137.79 | 6% |
| Dollar General Corp. |
DG, |
6.7% | 10.9% | 67% | $241.05 | $267.54 | 11% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Among the companies on this list that didn’t suffer sales declines from 2019 levels, Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
is expected to achieve the highest two-year sales CAGR through 2022.
Dollar General Corp.
DG,
is the only company to appear on this list based on consensus sales growth estimates and the Jefferies recommended list.
Don’t miss: These 15 Dividend Aristocrat stocks have been the best income builders
China on Tuesday suspended visas for South Koreans to enter the country for tourism or business in apparent retaliation for South Korea’s COVID-19 testing requirements for Chinese travelers, the Associated Press reported.
No other details were given, although China has threatened to retaliate against countries that require travelers from China to show a negative result for a test taken within the previous 48 hours.
That has not stopped about a dozen countries from following the U.S. in requiring Chinese travelers produce a test after China lifted most of its strict COVID-related restrictions for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The end of those restrictions has resulted in a surge of new cases.
The World Health Organization and several nations have accused China of withholding data on its outbreak. The testing requirements are aimed at identifying potential virus variants carried by travelers.
Separately on Tuesday, the head of the WHO for Europe said the surge of cases in China is not likely to have a big impact on Europe, although he cautioned against complacency.
Hans Kluge told reporters it was “not unreasonable for countries to take precautionary measures to protect their populations” but called for such measures “to be rooted in science, to be proportionate and nondiscriminatory,” as AFP reported.
In the U.S., the seven-day average of new cases stood at 67,012 on Monday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s up 2% from two weeks ago and below the recent peak of 70,508 on Christmas Eve.
The daily average for hospitalizations was up 18% to 47,503. The average for deaths was 467, up 10% from two weeks ago.
Cases are currently rising in 21 states, along with Guam, Washington, D.C., and the U.S. Virgin Islands. They are led by Florida, where cases are up 90% from two weeks ago. On a per-capita basis, New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island are seeing the highest rates. New York has 37 cases per 100,000 people, New Jersey 35 and Rhode Island 31.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• Thailand sent three cabinet ministers to welcome Chinese tourists with flowers and gifts as they arrived Monday at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport after China relaxed travel restrictions, the AP reported. The high-profile event reflected the importance Thailand places on wooing Chinese travelers to help restore its pandemic-battered tourism industry. Before COVID, Chinese visitors accounted for about one-third of all arrivals.
• Moderna Inc.
MRNA,
is considering pricing its COVID vaccine at $110 to $130 per dose, the Wall Street Journal reported. That’s the same price range as mooted by Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
and German partner BioNTech SE
BNTX,
once their vaccine moves to the commercial market. For now, vaccines are being purchased and distributed by the U.S. government.
• India has detected the presence of all the COVID omicron subvariants in the community after testing more than 300 samples since late December, the health ministry said in a statement, Reuters reported. “No mortality or rise in transmission were reported in the areas where these variants were detected,” the ministry said.
A flurry of announcements relating to COVID vaccines dominated headlines on the pandemic on Monday, with Moderna telling investors it expects to generate some $5 billion in sales in 2023.
That’s down from $18.4 billion in sales in 2022. The company plans to boost spending on research and development to $4.5 billion this year, up from $3.3 billion in 2022.
Moderna
MRNA,
provided the update in advance of the company’s presentation at the annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco.
Separately, CureVac
CVAC,
said preliminary data from its early stage trial for its COVID and seasonal flu shots had positive results to advance to the next stage of clinical testing.
CureVac is developing the shots with GlaxoSmithKline
GSK,
GSK,
CureVac said the shot was well tolerated, and that neutralizing antibodies were beginning at the lowest tested dose for younger adults. The seasonal flu shot was also well tolerated with an increase in antibodies compared to those from a flu vaccine comparator in younger adults, CureVac said.
Ocugen announced positive results in a trial of its COVID vaccine Covaxin, which uses the same vero cell manufacturing platform that has been used in the production of polio vaccines for decades. The Phase 2/3 trial involved 491 U.S. adult participants who received two doses of Covaxin or placebo 28 days apart.
“Covaxin, an inactivated virus vaccine adjuvanted with TLR7/8 agonist, has been demonstrated in clinical trials to generate a broader immune response against the whole virus covering important antigens such as S-protein, RBD, and N-protein; whereas currently approved vaccines in the U.S. target only S-protein antigen,” the company said in a statement.
Chief Executive Dr. Shankar Musnuri said the company is hoping the vaccine will offer an option for those who are still hesitant to take an mRNA vaccine, which uses newer technology.
U.S. cases were lower on Sunday, according to a New York Times tracker. The seven-day average of new cases stood at 67,246, down 1% from two weeks ago.
The daily average for hospitalizations was up 18% at 47,500., the highest level since last March. The average for deaths was 509, up 19% from two weeks ago.
Hospitalizations are becoming concerning, according to the Times trackers, with the Northeast seeing the highest per capita rates, along with the Southeast.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• China has suspended or closed the social-media accounts of more than 1,000 critics of the government’s COVID response, as the country rolls back harsh anti-virus restrictions and gears up for the coming Lunar New Year holiday, the Associated Press reported. The popular Sina Weibo social media platform said it had addressed 12,854 violations including attacks on experts, scholars and medical workers and issued temporary or permanent bans on 1,120 accounts. The ruling Communist Party had largely relied on the medical community to justify its tough lockdowns, quarantine measures and mass testing, almost all of which it abruptly abandoned last month, leading to a surge in new cases that have stretched medical resources to their limits. The party allows no direct criticism and imposes strict limits on free speech.
• Pfizer’s
PFE,
antiviral Paxlovid has not been included in the Chinese government’s national reimbursement list that would have allowed patients to get it at a cheaper price throughout the country, saying it was too expensive, the AP reported separately. Although it is supposed to be prescribed by medical professionals, that hasn’t stopped people from scrambling to purchase it on their own through any means at their disposal—including buying generic Indian versions of the drug through the internet, according to local media reports.
• The union representing a group of nurses at a New York City hospital reached a tentative contract agreement with its management, but close to 9,000 nurses at several other major hospitals were still preparing to go on strike, the AP reported. The New York State Nurses Association and BronxCare Health System said Saturday that a tentative agreement had been reached; the union said it included pay raises every year of its three-year term as well as staffing increases. Another hospital, Flushing Hospital Medical Center, got to a tentative agreement with nurses on Friday evening.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 664.3 million on Monday, while the death toll rose above 6.7 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 101.2 million cases and 1,096,523 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 229.3 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69.1% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 48.2 million Americans, equal to 15.4% of the overall population, have had the updated COVID booster that targets both the original virus and the omicron variants.
European Union officials were working Wednesday to coordinate a response to China’s current surge of COVID cases and were likely to agree on travel restrictions that may upset both Beijing and airlines.
The Chinese government has already slammed the countries that have imposed a COVID test requirement on passengers from China and has threatened countermeasures if more are introduced, the Associated Press reported.
EU Commission spokesman Tim McPhie said Wednesday that most EU nations are in favor of testing prior to departure and are seeking an official position later in the day.
There are concerns that China’s wave may allow for new, potentially more evasive and risky variants of the coronavirus to emerge, although so far, data are showing the variants circulating in China are already in Europe.
See also: Isolated and humiliated, Russia is biggest geopolitical threat of 2023: Eurasia Group
On Wednesday the International Air Transport Association, which represents some 300 airlines worldwide, lent its powerful voice to the protests.
“It is extremely disappointing to see this knee-jerk reinstatement of measures that have proven ineffective over the last three years,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
“Research undertaken around the arrival of the omicron variant concluded that putting barriers in the way of travel made no difference to the peak spread of infections. At most, restrictions delayed that peak by a few days,” Walsh said.
EU nations are also expected to agree to test wastewater from planes flying in from China to determine whether it contains variants that are not yet prevalent in Europe.
In the U.S., the seven-day average for new COVID cases has continued to fall and stood at 60,417 on Tuesday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down 10% from two weeks ago and below the recent peak of 70,508 on Christmas Eve.
The daily average for hospitalizations was up 8% to 44,504. The average for deaths was 310, down 24% from two weeks ago.
The New York Times tracker notes there is reason to believe current case and death counts could be artificially low, as the people who track those numbers take time off around the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. Hospitalization data are not typically affected by holiday reporting breaks.
The number of patients with COVID in intensive-care units rose 11% in two weeks, to 5,350. Meanwhile, the test-positivity rate climbed to 16% and has increased by 25% over the past two weeks. Higher test-positivity rates suggest many new COVID cases are not being counted, as results of at-home testing may not be reported to case trackers.
Overall, cases are currently rising in 17 states, led by Mississippi, where they have climbed 78% from two weeks ago. Measured on a per-capita basis, New Jersey and New York are faring the worst, along with several southern states, including Virginia, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• Shares of Lucira Health Inc.
LHDX,
more than quadrupled Tuesday after it submitted an application for emergency-use authorization to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for over-the-counter use of a molecular COVID-19 and flu test, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The test was granted emergency-use authorization for point-of-care use in a healthcare setting in November. The company now “intends to make the test broadly available to consumers both online as well as in pharmacies.”
• Salesforce Inc.
CRM,
has become the latest big tech player to say it hired too aggressively during the COVID pandemic; it is now planning to lay off about 10% of its workforce, MarketWatch’s Emily Bary reported. The company will also exit some real estate and cut back on office space, it disclosed in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The plan is aimed at reducing operating costs, boosting operating margins and driving “profitable growth.” “As our revenue accelerated through the pandemic, we hired too many people leading into this economic downturn we’re now facing, and I take responsibility for that,” the company’s co-chief executive, Marc Benioff, said in a letter to employees that was also filed with the SEC. The company had 73,541 employees as of Jan. 31, 2022, according to its last annual filing with the SEC.
Read: Here are the companies in the layoffs spotlight; Salesforce joins Intel, Google, HP, Amazon, Cisco
• Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
has gone from being a COVID darling to a “show-me” launch story, according to Bank of America analysts, who downgraded the stock to neutral from buy on Wednesday, citing declining COVID revenues and uncertainty about how new products will perform. Analysts are expecting revenue from Pfizer’s COVID vaccine Comirnaty and its antiviral Paxlovid to decline by about $32 billion from 2022, wider than the consensus number of a decline of $25 billion. “While new launches can partially address the $17 billion LOE (loss of exclusivity) hole in 2025 to 2030, longer term growth is unclear,” the analysts wrote in a note to clients.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 666.8 million on Tuesday, while the death toll rose above 6.69 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 100.8 million cases and 1,094,010 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 229.1 million people living in the U.S., equal to 69% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 47 million Americans have had the updated COVID booster that targets the original virus and the omicron variants, equal to 15.1% of the overall population.
It has taken just one day for Tesla Inc.’s stock to erase the entire bounce it enjoyed over the last three days trading sessions of 2022, as disappointing deliveries data helped trigger the biggest selloff in more than two years.
The stock’s
TSLA,
Tuesday drop knocked the electric vehicle maker’s market capitalization to 15th on the list of most valuation S&P 500 index companies.
On Tuesday, Tesla’s market cap fell below that of consumer products company Procter & Gamble Co.
PG,
with a current market cap of $359.18 billion, and was just below Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
at $352.15 billion, according to FactSet data. Tesla sat just above Chevron Corp.
CVX,
which was at $336.43 billion. (See list of S&P 500’s 20 most valuable companies as of Tuesday’s closing prices below.)
Tesla’s stock took a $15.08, or 12.2% dive, to $108.10 on Tuesday, to lead the S&P 500’s
SPX,
decliners, after the company reported over the weekend that fourth-quarter deliveries that came up short of expectations for the third quarter in a row. It suffered the biggest one-day decline since it plummeted 21.1% on Sept. 8, 2020, and closed at the lowest price since Aug. 13, 2020.
With about 3.16 billion shares outstanding as of Oct. 18, the stock’s decline shaved about $47.62 billion off Tesla’s market cap, to bring it down to $341.35 billion. That’s a far cry from the peak market cap of $1.24 trillion reached exactly one-year ago.
After the stock hit the deepest oversold reading in its history based on the widely followed Relative Strength Index momentum indicator on Dec. 27, following the longest losing streak in more than four years, it ran up $14.08, or 12.9%, over the past three days.
If there’s a bright side to Tuesday’s stock selloff, it’s that even though the price fell below the Dec. 27 closing price, the RSI ended the day at 24.86, which is up from the Dec. 27 record low of 16.56.
That could be a preliminary sign of what chart watchers call “bullish technical divergence,” which is when prices make lower lows while the RSI makes a higher low. It’s still rather early to make that determination, however, as the stock needs to start bouncing again to see if RSI bottoms above the previous low.
Market caps of the Top 20 most valuable S&P 500 companies:
While many have been focused on the apparent explosion of COVID cases in China, and the lack of reliable data from China’s government, there are signs suggesting the U.S. situation is also getting worse even as case counts and deaths are falling.
At first look, initial fears of another COVID surge in the U.S. over the holidays may be overblown. About a week after the year-end holiday gatherings began, the seven-day average of new COVID cases fell to a more than three-week low of 58,354 on Thursday, down 9% from two weeks ago and down 17% from a recent peak of 70,508 on Christmas Eve, according to a New York Times tracker.
And the daily average for deaths fell has fallen to a three-week low of 355, and has dropped 5% in two weeks.
But as the NYT tracker has been warning, case and death counts could be “artificially low” this week, as officials who track those numbers take vacation for the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. Therefore, hospitalization data, which is typically not affected by holidays, should remain more reliable.
And by that measure, the numbers are getting worrisome.
The daily average of hospitalizations rose to 41,620 on Thursday, up 3% from two weeks ago but also the highest number seen since mid-August.
There are 29 states that have seen hospitalizations increase from two weeks ago, including 20 states that have seen double-digit percentage increases, led by South Carolina at 54%, West Virginia at 52% and Louisiana at 47%.
The number of severe COVID cases is also seeing a troubling rise, the daily average of COVID-related patients in intensive care units (ICUs) climbed to 5,080 on Thursday. That’s up 10% from two weeks ago, and the most seen since July 30.
Another sign that the fall in case counts is artificial is that the test positivity rate has been rising, to a four-month high above 14% on Thursday, with 41 states seeing double-digit positivity rates.
“Higher test positivity rates are a sign that many infections are not reported — even if they are tested at home. This results in a more severe undercount of cases,” the NYT tracker said.
Stay up to date on COVID news through MarketWatch’s daily “Coronavirus Update” column.
Meanwhile in China, amid a “lack of adequate and transparent” data from China’s government, there is reason to believe the situation will still get a lot worse before it gets better.
U.K. health firm Airfinity estimates that new daily COVID cases in China is currently running at about 1.8 million, based on data from China’s regional provinces, and on new-case trajectories from areas that also lifted zero-COVID policies, such as Hong Kong.
That case number is expected to more than double, to about 3.7 million a day, in mid-January, Airfinity estimates, before another surge in March takes the number up to about 4.2 million per day.
As a result of the concerns over surging case counts, Spain joined the growing number of countries that are requiring COVID tests for air passengers arriving from China, as the Associated Press reported. This comes after the European Union said Thursday that it is “assessing” the situation in China.
The U.S. will also require those arriving from China to take a PCR test, starting Jan. 5, while Japan started requiring a test on Friday. Other countries requiring a test for air passengers from China include Italy, India and South Korea.
The BBC reported that the U.K. was set to announce that travelers will need to show a negative COVID test before they board a plane from China.
In other COVID news, China’s National Medical Products Administration has given emergency approval to Merck & Co. Inc.’s
MRK,
COVID antiviral molnupiravir. That joins Pfizer Inc.’s
PFE,
Paxlovid, which has already been approved for use in China. Merck’s stock, which fell 0.4% in afternoon trading Friday, has soared 44.0% in 2022, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
has lost 9.4%.
Novavax Inc.
NVAX,
said Friday that it has initiated a Phase 2 trial for its COVID-19-Influenza Combination (CIC) vaccine candidate in people aged 50 through 80. “We believe that like influenza, COVID-19 will also be seasonal moving forward, and that there is room in the market for new alternatives to provide better protection against the impact of influenza, particularly in older adults, and to explore the potential to combine this with protection from COVID,” said Chief Executive Stanley Erck. Novavax’s stock, which eased 0.3% Friday, has plunged 93.2% year to date while the S&P 500 index
SPX,
has dropped 20.1%.
China has turned a corner in its zero-Covid policy, lifting quarantines for foreign travelers from early next year, but that has come with cost as cases are surging and hospitals are packed.
The National Health Commission said over the weekend that it will drop the COVID-19 quarantine requirement for passengers arriving in China from abroad, starting Jan. 8. That was a major step in China’s lifting of the zero-COVID policy that have kept foreigners locked out, and its citizens locked in, for more than 2 1/2 years.
“It feels like China has turned the corner,” said Colm Rafferty, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, in a statement, as the Associated Press reported.
While many welcome the lifting of the zero-COVID policy, it has also triggered a surge in cases and has led to hospitals in many smaller cities and towns being overwhelmed. The jump in severe cases comes as China’s health authorities struggle to vaccinate the elderly, amid fears of potential side effects.
In other China COVID news, China Meheco Group Co., which distributes Pfizer Inc.’s
PFE,
Paxlovid COVID-19 vaccine in China, said over the weekend that Paxlovid can only be purchased at hospitals. That limits broader sales of the drug, including through e-commerce channels.
Back in the U.S., the latest data showed that the daily average of new cases and deaths have slipped during the Christmas holiday weekend, while hospitalizations have leveled off.
The seven-day average of new cases was 66,014 on Monday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down from 70,508 on Dec. 24, and down 1% from two weeks ago.
However, case counts could be artificially low during as officials who track the numbers take vacation for the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. Also, rising test positivity rates suggest many new COVID cases are not reported, as many who test at home don’t report results to health officials.
The daily-average test positivity rate climbed to a four-month high of 14% on Monday, up 14% from two weeks ago.
COVID-related hospitalizations dipped to 40,156 on Monday from 40,969 on Saturday, but had ticked up 3% from two weeks ago. Meanwhile, COVID patients in intensive care units (ICUs) increased to a 4 1/2-month high of 4,931 on Monday, up 11% from two weeks ago.
The daily average of deaths eased to 426 on Monday from 428 on Christmas Eve, and has declined 9% in two weeks.
The number of Americans who have been fully vaccinated was 229.99 million, or 69% of the total population, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, while only 14.6% of Americans have received the updated (bivalent) booster dose.
COVID-19 cases are once again rising in the U.S., but how prepared are we for the next pandemic?
That’s a question worth asking. The $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill presented by lawmakers on Tuesday includes a pandemic preparedness package, which has provisions that aim to build up the stockpile of drugs and medical supplies, strengthen how the U.S. can predict, model and forecast infectious disease threats, and test out a loan repayment plan for workers with expertise in infectious diseases and emergency preparedness.
The package does not include a task force that would investigate the origins of SARS-CoV-2 or the $9 billion that President Joe Biden requested to address the ongoing pandemic.
“We are not fixing the things that led to a bad response over COVID, and we’re facing a serious possibility that new variants of concern could arise in China,” Dr. Zeke Emanuel, vice provost of global initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania, told Axios.
COVID news to know:
A growing chorus of voices is questioning why there is no concerted effort to persuade Americans to wear face masks in public settings again as COVID cases, hospitalizations, fatalities and test-positivity rates rise across the nation.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention continues to encourage people to keep up with vaccines and boosters and to urge others to do so too. But for now, there is no push for face masks or social distancing, the public safety measures that helped contain the spread of the virus at the peak of the pandemic.
The daily average for new cases stood at 65,528 on Monday, according to a New York Times tracker, up 56% from two weeks ago. Cases are climbing in 47 states, led by Mississippi, where they are up 356% from two weeks ago.
The average for hospitalizations is up 24% to 38,331. Hospitalizations are climbing in 44 states, led by Vermont, where they are up 83% from two weeks ago.
The number of COVID deaths is up 48% to a daily average of 468, a disappointing reversal of the declining trend seen over the past several months. The test-positivity rate has climbed 25% to 12%.
New York City and New York state have emerged as hot spots, with an average of 6,405 new cases a day in the state in the last week, the tracker shows. Cases are up 74% from two weeks ago.
The omicron strains called BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have become dominant in the Empire State, replacing BA.5. Both are sublineages of BA.5 but are more infectious than the original variant, meaning they can spread faster and more easily.
Meanwhile, other respiratory illnesses including flu, RSV and strep throat are also circulating, adding to the burden on healthcare systems.
Children are having an especially rough winter so far amid shortages of medicines to treat common childhood illnesses such as flu, ear infections and sore throats, CNN reported.
“Right now, we are having severe shortages of medications. There’s no Tamiflu for children. There’s barely any Tamiflu for adults. And this is brand-name and generic,” Renae Kraft, a relief pharmacist in Oklahoma City, told the network. Additionally, she said, “as far as antibiotics go, there’s not a whole lot.”
Families have taken to social media to highlight their hunt for oseltamivir, the generic for Tamiflu, as well as for the antibiotics amoxicillin and augmentin, said CNN. And there is also a shortage of the inhaler albuterol, which helps open airways in the lungs, according to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• Some two years after they were first introduced, COVID vaccines have prevented more than 3 million additional deaths and about 18 million additional hospitalizations in the U.S., according to a new study from the Commonwealth Fund. More than 655 million doses of vaccine have been administered in the U.S., and 80% of the overall population has had at least one dose. “The swift development of the vaccine, emergency authorization to distribute widely, and rapid rollout have been instrumental in curbing hospitalization and death, while mitigating socioeconomic repercussions of the pandemic,” the authors wrote.
• Chinese universities say they will allow students to finish the semester from home in hopes of reducing the potential for a large COVID-19 outbreak during the January Lunar New Year travel period, the AP reported. It wasn’t clear how many schools were participating, but universities in Shanghai and nearby cities said students would be given the option of returning home early or staying on campus and undergoing testing every 48 hours. The Lunar New Year, which falls on Jan. 22, is traditionally China’s busiest travel season.
• The Nasdaq-listed 111 Inc.
YI,
has started retail sales of Pfizer’s
PFE,
oral COVID-19 treatment pill in China, according to the healthcare platform’s website, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The sales page for the Chinese platform on Tuesday showed it is now offering Paxlovid, the COVID medication that Beijing approved in February, for customers with positive results from polymerase chain reaction or antigen tests. Paxlovid has been used by medical practitioners to treat patients in China since March, when Shanghai was hit by a COVID outbreak, according to local media reports.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 650.1 million on Monday, while the death toll rose above 6.65 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 99.5 million cases and 1,084,766 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 228.6 million people living in the U.S., equal to 68.9% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 42 million Americans have had the updated COVID booster that targets the original virus and the omicron variants, equal to 13.5% of the overall population.
Omicron subvariants continued to account for more new cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. in the latest week than did BA.5, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which are sublineages of BA.5, accounted for 67.9% of cases in the week through Dec. 10, while BA.5 accounted for 11.5%, the data show.
Last week, BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 accounted for 62.8% of all cases in the U.S., while BA.5 accounted for 13.8%.
In the New York region, which includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the numbers were even higher, with BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounting for 73.3% of new cases, compared with 10% for BA.5.
In the previous week, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounted for 72.4% of all cases, compared with 6.9% for BA.5.
New York City is again emerging as a hot spot for COVID, according to a New York Times tracker, which shows cases up about 60% in recent weeks and hospitalizations at their highest level since February.
The test-positivity rate in New York City stood at 13% on Thursday, the tracker shows.
Overall, known U.S. cases are up 53% from two weeks ago. The daily average for hospitalizations is up 30% at 37,066, while the daily average for deaths is up 35% to 460.
For now, the numbers remain far below the peaks seen last winter, when omicron first hit, but with flu and other respiratory infections currently sweeping the country and affecting young children, experts are warning people to take precautions.
Coronavirus Update: MarketWatch’s daily roundup has been curating and reporting all the latest developments every weekday since the coronavirus pandemic began
Other COVID-19 news you should know about:
• A rash of COVID-19 cases in schools and businesses was reported by social-media users Friday in areas across China. This comes after the ruling Communist Party loosened its antivirus rules as it tries to reverse a deepening economic slump, the Associated Press reported. Official data showed a fall in new cases, but after the government on Wednesday ended mandatory testing for many people, those data no longer cover large parts of the population. That was among the dramatic changes aimed at gradually emerging from the zero-COVID restrictions that have confined millions of people to their homes and sparked protests and demands for President Xi Jinping to resign.
• U.S.-listed shares of China Jo-Jo Drugstores Inc.
CJJD,
rallied on Friday as the stores filled with customers buying cold medicines after COVID restrictions were eased, MarketWatch’s Jaimy Lee reported. The stock was up 22%. The company, which is based in Hangzhou, China, operates drugstores and an online pharmacy in China. It is also a wholesale distributor of pharmacy products and grows and sells herbs used in traditional Chinese medicine.
• Pfizer
PFE,
and German partner BioNTech
BNTX,
have received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a single-dose mRNA-based vaccine candidate targeting both COVID and flu. The companies have already announced that they are in early-stage trials to review the safety and immunogenicity of their combined vaccine in healthy adults. The vaccine will target the BA.4 and BA.5 omicron sublineages, which have become dominant globally, as well as four different flu strains recommended for use in the Northern Hemisphere by the World Health Organization. If approved, the vaccine would be the first to target both COVID and flu.
• A bill to rescind the COVID vaccine mandate for members of the U.S. military and to provide nearly $858 billion for national defense was passed by the House on Thursday as lawmakers scratch one of the final items off their yearly to-do list, the AP reported. The bill provides about $45 billion more for defense programs than President Joe Biden requested, the second consecutive year Congress has significantly exceeded his request, as lawmakers seek to boost the nation’s military competitiveness with China and Russia. The bill is expected to easily pass the Senate and then be signed into law by Biden.
Here’s what the numbers say:
The global tally of confirmed cases of COVID-19 topped 648 million on Friday, while the death toll rose above 6.65 million, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. leads the world with 99.4 million cases and 1,084,236 fatalities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s tracker shows that 228.6 million people living in the U.S., equal to 68.9% of the total population, are fully vaccinated, meaning they have had their primary shots.
So far, just 42 million Americans have had the updated COVID booster that targets the original virus and the omicron variants, equal to 13.5% of the overall population.
What worked well during the years-long bull market through 2021 — a focus on growth, regardless of price — has ground to a halt this year. The rebirth of the value style of investing — and modest valuations overall — has taken hold.
The approach taken by the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF has paid off through both bull and bear markets.
Let’s begin with a 10-year chart comparing total returns with dividends reinvested for the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF
SPGP,
and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY,
which tracks the benchmark S&P 500:
So far this year, SPGP is down 12%, while SPY is down 16%. But the long-term chart shows significant and consistent outperformance for SPGP, even during the bull market.
GARP stands for “growth at a reasonable price.” SPGP tracks the S&P 500 GARP Index, which is reconstituted and rebalanced twice a year, on the third Fridays of June and December. The next change occurs Dec. 16.
S&P Dow Jones Indices assigns a growth score to each component of the S&P 500 by averaging the three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings and sales per share.
The top 150 components of the S&P 500 by growth score are eligible for inclusion in the GARP index. Those 150 are ranked by “quality/value composite score,” which is the average of these three ratios:
The top 75 of the 150 by QV rankings are then included in the GARP index and weighted by the growth score, with portfolio weightings ranging from 0.5% to 5%.
There is a weighting limitation of 40% to any one of the 11 S&P sectors.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index
SPX,
is weighted by market capitalization, which means it is more heavily concentrated than you might expect — success is rewarded, with rising stocks more heavily weighted over time.
That can backfire during a bear market, with Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
down 47% and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
down 51% this year, to name two prominent examples.
Looking at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPY,
which is the first and largest exchange traded fund and tracks the benchmark index by holding all of its components, six companies (Apple Inc.
AAPL,
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
Amazon, both common share classes of Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL,
GOOG,
and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
BRK.B,
) make up 19.2% of the portfolio.
That percentage has come down this year, but a lot of risk remains concentrated in a handful of companies. (Apple alone makes up 6.4% of the SPY portfolio. Tesla is now the ninth-largest holding, making up 1.4% of the portfolio.)
One way to address high concentration in an index fund is to use an equal-weighted approach, which Mark Hulbert recently discussed.
For the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF, the underlying index’s selection methodology has resulted in much less portfolio concentration than we see in SPY, with the top five holdings making up 10.9% of the portfolio.
Here are the 10 largest holdings of SPGP:
| Company | Ticker | Share of portfolio |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
REGN, |
2.49% |
| Cigna Corporation |
CI, |
2.26% |
| Everest Re Group, Ltd. |
RE, |
2.21% |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated |
VRTX, |
1.98% |
| D.R. Horton, Inc. |
DHI, |
1.97% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. |
EXPD, |
1.96% |
| Incyte Corporation |
INCY, |
1.92% |
| Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
GS, |
1.83% |
| Ebay Inc. |
EBAY, |
1.81% |
| Pfizer Inc. |
PFE, |
1.73% |
| Source: FactSet | ||
Click on the tickers for more information about any company, ETF or index in this article.
You should also read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
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