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  • Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 8: BYU can no longer be ignored

    Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 8: BYU can no longer be ignored

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    Editor’s note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams.

    It’s time to take notice of BYU.

    The Cougars are undefeated and have delivered Kansas State and SMU their only losses of the season. Yet BYU remains outside the top 10 in both the AP and Coaches polls. But not here. BYU is up to No. 7 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.

    I’m surprised the Cougars haven’t gotten more love. They’re undefeated at 7-0 and have two really good wins, both of which are better than the best wins of Iowa State (Iowa) and several other teams around their place in the polls. They’ve actually been in my top 10 for weeks.

    Perhaps it’s because BYU has twice played on Friday nights, or because its 38-9 win against Kansas State was a 10:30 p.m. kickoff on a Saturday. Yes, the Cougars have played some close games and needed a late touchdown to beat Oklahoma State, but this team and especially this defense looks legit, now 13th in yards per play allowed.

    You should also take notice because the second half of the schedule is manageable. BYU and Iowa State don’t play each other in the regular season. The Cougars already beat K-State and won’t play 5-2 Colorado. If the Big 12 wants to get two teams into the College Football Playoff, BYU would likely be one of them.

    GO DEEPER

    AP Top 25: Oregon new No. 1; Vandy ends poll drought

    We’re more than halfway through the season, and we’re still getting surprise results that shake up the rankings. Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.

    1-10

    Rank Team Record Prev

    1

    7-0

    1

    2

    6-1

    3

    3

    6-0

    4

    4

    7-0

    6

    5

    5-1

    5

    6

    6-1

    2

    7

    7-0

    8

    8

    6-1

    12

    9

    6-1

    11

    10

    6-1

    9

    Georgia slides up to No. 2 after its win at Texas, while the Longhorns fall to No. 6 because their best win at this point is a sliding Michigan team or a sliding Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ loss to Alabama keeps them from the top spot, especially after the Tide lost again and are now ranked next to Boise State, which Oregon beat.

    Miami jumps Ohio State after its win at Louisville, but the Ohio State-Penn State game in two weeks will be another shakeup game.

    Tennessee and LSU jump into the top 10 after the Vols beat Alabama and the Tigers beat Arkansas 34-10. Tennessee and LSU’s resumes are incredibly even, but Tennessee has the better Best Win, so the Vols get the slight edge.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Tennessee proved against Alabama it’s not a one-hit wonder under Josh Heupel

    11-25

    I’d been a little skeptical of Indiana’s ceiling after beating up on bad teams, but Saturday’s 56-7 demotion of Nebraska has turned me into a believer, moving the Hoosiers to No. 11. The bad news: Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is out indefinitely with a thumb injury. But the path to 10 or even 11 wins is there. Iowa State slips two spots mostly due to the performances turned in by Tennessee, LSU and Indiana on the same day that the Cyclones needed to rally late to survive UCF.

    Illinois is the only newcomer to the top 25, back after a 21-7 win against Michigan to move to 6-1.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Stewart Mandel’s 12-team Playoff projections after Week 8

    26-50

    Teams just outside the top 25 took all kind of losses this week. As a result, Syracuse, UNLV, South Carolina, Memphis, Army, Duke and Cincinnati make big jumps into the top 35. Michigan State also jumps to No. 39 after a 32-20 win against Iowa. Next up is a Michigan-MSU game that could have major bowl implications for both.

    Is it weird that we’ve stopped talking about Colorado right as the Buffs became a solid team? Colorado is 5-2 and No. 38 after a 34-7 win against Arizona, which comes after a last-minute loss to Kansas State and a win against UCF. It’d be a shocker if Colorado didn’t go bowling, which is another improvement for coach Deion Sanders.

    No. 46 Florida and No. 47 Virginia Tech also move into the top 50 after handling Kentucky and Boston College, respectively. Utah continues to slide and is now just hanging onto No. 50 after losing to TCU.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Georgia’s defensive havoc takes down Texas and more from Week 8

    51-75

    USC has tumbled to No. 52 after blowing another 14-point lead and losing at Maryland to drop to 1-4 in Big Ten play. No. 53 Rutgers lost a shocker to UCLA and dropped out of the top 50.

    Louisiana continues to sneak around the top of the Sun Belt, now No. 60 after beating Coastal Carolina to move to 6-1 overall, while Georgia Southern took control of the Sun Belt East in beating James Madison and moves up to No. 63 from No. 82. Toledo is up to No. 68 after beating Northern Illinois.

    No. 65 NC State and No. 66 Cal are the toughest teams to rank. NC State recently lost to Wake Forest but turned around and beat Cal, which is 0-4 in ACC play by a total of nine points. If the Golden Bears could make a field goal, their record would be completely different.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Morales: USC has invested heavily in Lincoln Riley and his staff. Where are the results?

    76-100

    Baylor jumps to No. 76 after a surprising 59-35 win against Texas Tech. Texas State drops to No. 77 after a loss to Old Dominion. Auburn blew a double-digit lead against Missouri, dropping to 2-5, and slips to No. 80.

    No. 82 Western Michigan is actually atop the MAC at 3-0 after beating Buffalo, which has defeated Toledo and NIU. Marshall jumps up to No. 81 because the Herd have a win against WMU and beat Georgia State last week.

    The bottom of the Power 4 is bunching together. Purdue is the lowest of the group at No. 95, but Florida State is just ahead at No. 94 after losing to Duke for the first time ever. No. 93 Mississippi State has played Georgia and Texas A&M competitively in recent weeks, while Houston slides back down to No. 89 after a 42-14 loss to Kansas.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Big 12, ACC should relish multiple bids if they get them: College Football Playoff Bubble Watch

    101-134

    New Mexico has won three games in a row after a 50-45 barnburner against Utah State to move up to No. 106 in Bronco Mendenhall’s first year. UTSA’s win against Florida Atlantic bounces the Roadrunners back up to No. 110.

    UTEP got its first win of the season, beating FIU, to move up to No. 129. That leaves the FBS with just two winless teams: Kennesaw State and Kent State.

    The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Chris Gardner / Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Week 8’s top 10 college football games: Georgia-Texas, Alabama-Tennessee and much more

    Week 8’s top 10 college football games: Georgia-Texas, Alabama-Tennessee and much more

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    On the heels of two of the more riveting weeks of college football in recent memory comes a jam-packed Saturday that features a trio of SEC headliners, including a top-five clash between blue bloods. There’s also multiple rivalry games that feature boots (sort of), and a potential College Football Playoff showcase in Bloomington, Indiana, of all places.

    Bless this sport.

    Let’s rank the top 10 games of Week 8, starting with honorable mentions and counting down.

    Honorable Mention: Oklahoma State at No. 13 BYU, Ohio at Miami (Ohio), Virginia at No. 10 Clemson, Auburn vs No. 19 Missouri, Louisiana at Coastal Carolina, Toledo at NIU, Colorado at Arizona, James Madison at Georgia Southern, UCF at No. 9 Iowa State.

    (All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. Stream college football on fubo.  All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

    Let’s give flowers to two teams that have exceeded expectations in the Big 12. Both were projected to finish near the bottom of the conference, but the winner on Saturday will have played its way into the conference title conversation. Arizona State and wrecking-ball running back Cam Skattebo have been proving the doubters wrong for weeks. But the Sun Devils will be without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt due to a rib injury; fifth-year journeyman Jeff Sims will start in his place. The Bearcats and gunslinging transfer QB Brendan Sorsby will try to take advantage of a depleted ASU crossing two time zones for an early kickoff.

    Line: Cincinnati -4.5

    9. UNLV (5-1) at Oregon State (4-2), 10 p.m., Fubo, The CW

    The Rebels rebounded from an overtime loss to Syracuse by hanging a 50-burger on Utah State last week, keeping pace with Boise State in the Mountain West standings. It sets up a massive game in Las Vegas next week against the Broncos that will have huge implications on the conference race and battle for the Group of 5’s spot in the CFP. But a win this Saturday in Corvallis would add a nice bullet point to UNLV’s resume in the meantime. Oregon State, looking to recover from a surprising loss to Nevada, should eventually make for an instructive common opponent between the two. The Beavs play at Boise State next month.

    Line: UNLV -7

    8. No. 17 Kansas State (5-1) at West Virginia (3-3), 7:30 p.m., Fubo, Fox

    There are intriguing matchups involving the Big 12’s three ranked teams this week, including Oklahoma State at No. 13 BYU and UCF at No. 9 Iowa State. But K-State has the most at stake. It is the only of those three ranked squads going on the road, and the only one with a loss. Of the teams in the top five of the Big 12’s preseason poll, the Wildcats are also the only one that hasn’t been a disappointment thus far. A second defeat, however, would quickly put their conference title and CFP hopes on life support, even in the ever-chaotic Big 12. Kansas State can’t afford to stumble in Morgantown against a streaky but resilient West Virginia, in a face-off of two proficient rushing attacks.

    Line: Kansas State -3

    7. No. 24 Michigan (4-2) at No. 22 Illinois (5-1), 3:30 p.m., Fubo, CBS

    A bit surprising for a ranked matchup to be this low on the list — except for the fact that Michigan has one of the worst offenses in college football (and maybe shouldn’t be ranked?). Illinois just needed overtime to beat a terrible Purdue team that scored 40 points second-half points. Still, hat tip to the Illini, who are 5-1 and playing the first ranked matchup at Memorial Stadium since 2000. Illinois will also honor legendary halfback Red Grange — the Galloping Ghost — a century after his epic 402-yard, six-touchdown game against the Wolverines. The Illini will sport throwback uniforms and hand-painted helmets that took 18 months to create.

    Line: Michigan -3.5

    GO DEEPER

    What does Michigan-Illinois mean? Previewing a sneaky big game for Wolverines, Illini

    Expect this one to play out differently than the 55-0 shutout that Notre Dame pitched when these teams last met in 2021. Unfortunately, injuries will be a storyline. The Irish lost All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison to a season-ending hip injury, and Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King will be a game-time decision after suffering a knock in last week’s win over North Carolina. If King can’t go, the job will fall to sophomore backup Zach Pyron, who has completed 5 of 7 passes and rushed for four touchdowns in limited action. Either way, the Irish can’t take this one lightly, with a remaining schedule that looks a lot tougher than we all expected, including ranked games against Navy and Army ahead of the regular-season finale at USC.

    Line: Notre Dame -12.5

    5. Nebraska (5-1) at No. 16 Indiana (6-0), Noon, Fubo, Fox

    I have thoroughly enjoyed the Indiana and Curt Cignetti media blitz this week, including this stellar profile of Cignetti by Joe Rexrode. The Hoosiers are basking in the glow of their first 6-0 start since 1967, and rightfully so. They’ve been one of the biggest surprises this season in Year 1 under Cignetti, and have yet to trail through six games. Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff is headed to Bloomington as IU faces Nebraska and freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is acting wise beyond his years. Big-time game featuring a pair of top-10 defenses (and a top-five offense for Indiana). The Huskers, who have lost 25 straight to ranked opponents, will get two cracks in a row at Indiana and then at Ohio State. On the other side, another win for the Hoosiers will shift the chatter from fast start to legit Playoff contender.

    Line: Indiana -6.5

    4. No. 8 LSU (5-1) at Arkansas (4-2), 7 p.m., Fubo, ESPN

    It’s the Battle for the Golden Boot, one of the more underappreciated rivalry names and trophies in college football. LSU has won seven of the last eight matchups, but both teams are coming off mammoth victories.

    The Tigers won a classic in overtime against Ole Miss despite never leading until the game’s final play, and Arkansas popped the first leak in Tennessee’s balloon a couple of weeks ago. The Razorbacks are better than anticipated — and Sam Pittman may have saved his job — while LSU has clawed back into the top 10 and CFP picture after the season-opening loss to USC. The Tigers will need more consistency out of Garrett Nussmeier to make some noise in the SEC, but his performance at the end of the Ole Miss victory showed how high his ceiling can be.

    Line: LSU -2.5

    3. No. 6 Miami (6-0) at Louisville (4-2), Noon, Fubo, ABC

    More top-notch rivalry hardware — and footwear: The Schnellenberger Trophy, which was introduced last season and currently resides with the Cardinals. Battle for the Golden Boots???

    This game is flying under the radar thanks to a loaded SEC slate, but it should be a fun, high-scoring barnburner. Miami desperately needed a bye after a pair of close calls against Virginia Tech and Cal, but Heisman hopeful Cam Ward and the Hurricanes remain one of 11 unbeaten teams in college football. Louisville ended a two-game skid last Saturday with a win at Virginia, with a top-15 offense (7.2 yards per play) led by quarterback Tyler Shough. Miami has the top offense in FBS at 8.2 yards per play, and Ward leads all FBS quarterbacks in passing yards per game (369.8).

    Line: Miami -5

    2. No. 7 Alabama (5-1) at No. 11 Tennessee (5-1), 3:30 p.m., Fubo, ABC

    An almost top-10 matchup between two teams that are either national title contenders or complete frauds, depending on which message board thread you read. Either way, the Third Saturday in October should provide some insight, and it’s a critical one as both teams try to avoid a second loss and spiraling fan bases. This is a tough game to handicap: Alabama has a top-10 offense, Tennessee has a top-two defense, but both teams have been mercurial on the field. David Ubben did a nice job digging in on that variability for an anonymous coaching confidential on the game, and Kennington Smith III examined how first-year Alabama head coaches have fared in the Tennessee rivalry.

    Line: Alabama -3

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    What’s going on with Alabama and Tennessee? Coaches who faced them weigh in

    1. No. 5 Georgia (5-1) at No. 1 Texas (6-0), 7:30 p.m., Fubo, ABC

    Praise be: It’s our third top-five showdown of the season. The first two — Georgia vs Alabama and Ohio State vs Oregon — resulted in two of the best games of the year to this point. This is the sixth all-time meeting between Georgia and Texas and first since the 2019 Sugar Bowl.

    The Dawgs are underdogs for the first time in the last 50 games (!), and might need a road win over the top-ranked team in the country to preserve their CFP hopes. Texas, meanwhile, has been stellar on both sides of the ball and is arguably in a class of its own right now, though it has yet to face an opponent as good as Georgia. Quinn Ewers did look a tad rusty in his return from injury against Oklahoma last week, so we’ll see if that lingers. But coaches we spoke with for our coaching confidential on the game see Texas having the upper hand.

    Another win for the Longhorns would cement them as the clear national title favorite. But if the chaos timeline of this college football season continues, we’ll see a slightly diminished Georgia take down the Horns in Austin, and the top of the sport will officially look as vulnerable as it has in years.

    Line: Texas -4.5

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Coaching confidential: Texas has the edge against Georgia in SEC showdown

    Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images

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    The New York Times

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  • The Tar Heels faded in past 2 years with QB Drake Maye. Now they must fix that issue without him

    The Tar Heels faded in past 2 years with QB Drake Maye. Now they must fix that issue without him

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    CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (AP) — Mack Brown’s return to North Carolina stabilized the program. His sixth season begins with a pair of hurdles to accomplishing more.

    The Tar Heels are moving forward after star quarterback Drake Maye headed to the NFL, and Brown is determined to figure out how to finish better after two straight late-season fades.

    “It’s a problem, it’s an issue,” Brown said. “And it’s the only thing that’s keeping us from being where we need to be.”

    The Tar Heels were 9-1 in 2022 after clinching a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, then lost their last four. Last year’s team started 6-0 and reached No. 10 in the AP Top 25, then finished 2-5.

    Now Maye is gone as the No. 3 overall pick in the draft, and Brown is focused on how to get the Tar Heels to finish with some zip.

    “When we come out here and say the offense had a bad day in practice, that means you’re probably going to be an inconsistent team,” Brown said after the first preseason-camp practice. “And we’ve had too much of that around here.”

    This year’s team is picked to finish eighth in the expanded 17-team ACC.

    Brown is touting depth as the best of his second tenure in Chapel Hill, as well as showing optimism for growth under former Georgia Tech and Temple head coach Geoff Collins as defensive coordinator.

    Maye is the highest-profile of 11 departed offensive and defensive starters, though losses include one of the nation’s leading tacklers in linebacker Cedric Gray.

    Powering the offense

    Running back Omarion Hampton was an Associated Press second-team All-American last year after ranking fifth in the Bowl Subdivision by averaging 115.7 yards rushing. He’s studied film on players like NFL star Christian McCaffrey to expand his game.

    “I’m trying to catch the ball … and then pass block, because I know that’s what they do in the (NFL),” Hampton said. “I feel like doing that, it can expand my game and show them I’m able to do that as well.”

    Maye’s successor

    The Tar Heels have a preseason-camp battle to replace Maye, headlined by redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell and Max Johnson, a transfer with stops at LSU and Texas A&M.

    Harrell got his first career start in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl loss to West Virginia after Maye declared for the NFL draft, throwing for 270 yards and two scores while also running for 75 yards and a score. Johnson, son of former NFL quarterback Brad Johnson, has 22 career starts.

    There’s also the return of Jacolby Criswell, who started his career at UNC before transferring to Arkansas for a year.

    Linework

    Willie Lampkin, who started eight games at right guard last year, is the only returning starter to the offensive line. The Tar Heels bolstered their numbers at the position through the transfer portal, including adding Austin Blaske (Georgia), Howard Sampson (North Texas) and Jakiah Leftwich (Georgia Tech).

    Brown said his goal is being able to reliably play nine offensive linemen.

    More defensively

    Brown is on the third defensive coordinator of his second UNC stint in Collins, who replaced Gene Chizik. UNC hasn’t ranked higher than 10th in the 14-team ACC in scoring or total defense for the past three seasons. Losing Gray (10.1 tackles per game) won’t help, though fellow linebacker Power Echols returns with pass rusher Kaimon Rucker (8 1/2 sacks last year).

    “More aggression — ‘Master of Mayhem’ describes him perfectly,” Echols said of Collins. “He’s going to call a real aggressive game.”

    Brown also sounded high on secondary that includes cornerback Alijah Huzzie (three interceptions) and adds safety Jakeen Harris from rival North Carolina State.

    The schedule

    The Tar Heels open at Minnesota on Aug. 29 and visit rival Duke (Sept. 28) in their ACC opener. There’s also a trip to No. 10 Florida State (Nov. 2), the reigning league champion and preseason favorite. The slate doesn’t include any of the league’s three new schools and is rooted in longtime instate or league matchups, including a trip to Virginia (Oct. 26), a visit from Wake Forest (Nov. 16) and the home finale against No. 24 N.C. State (Nov. 30).

    ___

    AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football. Sign up for the AP’s college football newsletter: https://apnews.com/cfbtop25

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  • Ranking CFB teams better off (Texas), worse off (USC), or same (Nebraska) in new era

    Ranking CFB teams better off (Texas), worse off (USC), or same (Nebraska) in new era

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    There has been much discourse since the latest round of realignment and media deals that every team in the ACC and the Big 12 should want to be in the Big Ten or SEC, because those conferences make the most money. But the fans themselves aren’t seeing a dime of it. Their lone concern is whether their team wins on Saturday — and more money hardly guarantees more victories.

    With college football undergoing a massive facelift in 2024 — bigger conferences, an expanded College Football Playoff — every fan base in the country should be asking just one question: Is any of this going to help us win games?

    For example: Oklahoma will make a lot more money in the SEC than it would have in the Big 12. But it also faces a much tougher path to a national championship, whereas Kansas State’s chances of reaching the CFP have increased due to the Big 12’s bigger field and the loss of Oklahoma and Texas.

    So what about your school? Does its chances of success increase, decrease or remain the same in the sport’s new world order?

    To assess, I’ve given all 67 power-conference schools a score between minus-5 and positive-5. The score is solely about a team’s ability to win, and does not take into account the team’s current coaching staff or roster. Scoring a 0 means the school is neither better nor worse off. A score from 1 to 5 ranges from mildly better to far better, and -1 to -5 ranges from mildly worse to … uh oh.

    ACC

    SMU: +5

    Has there been a bigger realignment winner in the last 30 years? SMU had not finished in the Top 25 in four decades at the time it got the call up to the big leagues last September. Now it comes in with momentum after finishing last season No. 22.

    Clemson: +3

    Dabo Swinney’s 2015-2020 teams had to be near-perfect to reach the four-team CFP; his 11-2 ACC title squad in 2022 would have earned a top-4 seed. His aloof portal approach doesn’t help his cause, but it doesn’t factor into this score.

    Florida State: +3

    The irony of FSU trying to sue its way out of the ACC is that the new system works in its favor. Would it rather be the best team in the ACC and earn a top-4 seed and a first-round bye, or the fourth-best team in the SEC and live on the bubble?

    Louisville: +2

    Louisville has upside. The school has the resources and recruiting footprint to be a regular ACC and CFP contender, and it helps that Louisville is no longer trapped in a division with Florida State (which it does not play this season) and Clemson.

    Miami: +2

    The U has been stuck in the mud for two decades, but it began flexing its muscle as soon as NIL went into effect in 2021. The program has most of the elements needed to be a 12-team CFP regular, provided the right coach is in place.

    Virginia Tech: +2

    The Hokies would have made a 12-team CFP nine times in a 16-year span (1995-2010) under Frank Beamer. They may never replicate that level of consistency, but there’s no reason they can’t become a semi-regular contender again.

    NC State: +1

    The Wolfpack have not won a conference title since 1979. That might be a tad more attainable now that they’re no longer in the same division as Florida State and Clemson. (At least elsewhere, Wolfpack vibes are high.)

    Georgia Tech: 0

    Recruiting has always been challenging for the Yellow Jackets, made even more so now by NIL. But based on its history, Georgia Tech could make an occasional CFP appearance. It would have gone in 1990, 1998 and 2009, and would have been the first team out in 2014.

    North Carolina: 0

    This unquestioned basketball school has been long considered a sleeping giant in football but has yet to wake up. If it finally does, it will more likely be due to an inspired head-coaching hire than the various changes to the sport.

    Pittsburgh: -2

    Pitt is nearly 50 years removed from its national heyday, but it did win the ACC in 2021, which would have garnered a 12-team berth. But star receiver Jordan Addison’s jump to USC the following spring was a window into new NIL reality.

    Syracuse: -2

    It’s early, but new coach Fran Brown has discovered there’s money in the banana stand. Landing Ohio State QB Kyle McCord raised eyebrows. More broadly, though, it’s hard to argue the new landscape does much to benefit the Orange.

    Virginia: -2

    Arguably the one thing UVA had going for it was the mediocrity of the ACC Coastal Division, which it won in 2019 while going 9-3. Now, the Cavaliers — who last finished in the Top 25 back two decades ago — risk falling into deep irrelevance moving forward.

    Wake Forest: -2

    The tiniest school in Power 4 has more donor support than one might assume, and it’s not a championship-or-bust fan base. But reaching a 12-team CFP could be largely unattainable. Will programs like this be able to sustain interest?

    Boston College: -3

    BC is the type of school that suffers in a world of roster-poaching and NIL deals. Success will also be increasingly defined by Playoff appearances, and the Eagles have finished in the top 12 only twice since World War II.

    Duke: -3

    Duke just lived through the downside of its new reality. It lost coach Mike Elko to an SEC school after just two seasons and quarterback Riley Leonard went to Notre Dame, likely for a seven-figure NIL deal.

    Stanford: -4

    The Cardinal will always attract recruits that covet that degree. But the school’s admissions process limits it to taking only a few transfers a year, which creates a big disadvantage in the new landscape. And like Cal, the ACC is not ideal.

    Cal: -5

    Serious question: Would Cal have been better off getting Washington State/Oregon State’d? An already lagging program must now compete in a far-away Power 4 conference while receiving 30 percent of its money (and without SMU’s boosters).

    GO DEEPER

    Feldman’s CFP 12-team projection: Why I like Miami, PSU and Texas

    Big Ten

    Ohio State: +4

    Only once in the past 19 seasons have the Buckeyes lost more than two regular-season games. That means they would have made a 12-team Playoff all but once in the past 19 seasons. And probably pulled off an extra national title or two.

    Michigan: +3

    For the most part, Michigan will still be Michigan. The Big House will still pack in 110,000. The season will still be defined by whether it beats Ohio State. But a 12-team Playoff field certainly doesn’t hurt.

    Penn State: +3

    Had the 12-team Playoff been in place all along, James Franklin would have made five appearances in his first 10 seasons. The format is ideal for programs like PSU: not quite “elite,” but has the resources to compete nationally.

    Michigan State: +2

    While the Spartans only made the four-team CFP once, they could have made a 12-team field as many as five times from 2011-21. They also get Ohio State off the books in 2025 and 2026 after having played the Buckeyes in 14 consecutive seasons.

    Oregon: +2

    The Ducks are the best-positioned of the four West Coast schools joining the Big Ten. They recruit nationally and have Phil Knight’s war chest. While national titles have remained elusive, regular CFP appearances are realistic.

    Maryland: +1

    The Terps are free! They are no longer stuck in the Big Ten East, where their ceiling would forever be 7-5 and fourth place out of seven. But the upside may be limited until the school’s donors make a bigger splash in the NIL world.

    Rutgers: +1

    Like “rival” Maryland, Rutgers is finally out from under the Big Ten East. It’s also doing surprisingly well in NIL. The program’s ceiling may still be limited to 8-4 or so, but that would still be much better than its first decade in the conference.

    Nebraska: 0

    It may be tougher for the Cornhuskers to contend for Big Ten championships in a bigger league. But right now, that’s not even the target, given they haven’t even reached a bowl game in eight years. How much worse can it get?

    Wisconsin: -1

    The program has long churned out double-digit wins by “holding serve” against most of the conference while occasionally punching up against Ohio State or Michigan. That could become harder with the arrival of USC, Oregon and Washington.

    Illinois: -2

    This program has struggled to find its footing for more than two decades, and nothing about this new world helps it. If anything, it will be tougher. Right out of the gate, the Illini face Penn State, Michigan and Oregon this season.

    Indiana: -2

    The good news: no more getting clobbered by Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the Big Ten East. The bad news: Indiana, long known for apathy in football, is not likely to be as flush in NIL money as most of its competitors.

    USC: -2

    While it didn’t play like one for most of the past 15 years, USC was the most prestigious program in its former conference. In the Big Ten, it will be, at best, the third banana to Ohio State and Michigan, and possibly fifth behind Penn State and Oregon.

    Washington: -2

    The Huskies were the class of the Pac-12 the last two seasons, but it helped not to have an Ohio State or Michigan in their league. Now they have both, plus USC, Oregon and Penn State. Will the brief Kalen DeBoer era go down as an outlier?

    Minnesota: -3

    It’s unfortunate for the Golden Gophers that they have yet to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, because now it may never happen. A Playoff berth is not impossible, but Minnesota has had one top-10 season in the past 60 years.

    Northwestern: -3

    The new world may not be kind to overachiever programs like Northwestern. While it regularly makes bowl games and posts occasional Top 25 seasons, it has not finished high enough to make a 12-team CFP since 1996.

    Purdue: -3

    Not likely to contend for Playoff berths whether the field is four or 12. Purdue’s goal is to get to bowl games, and reaching six wins becomes harder without the benefit of a Big Ten West schedule.

    Iowa: -4

    The Hawkeyes have made a living out of grinding out mediocre Big Ten West foes while losing 42-3 to Michigan or 54-10 to Ohio State. In an 18-team league with no more unbalanced divisions and three incoming Top-25 recruiting schools, Iowa could be in for a reckoning.

    UCLA: -4

    Almost nothing about the new world does the Bruins any favors. UCLA is a basketball school whose donors have done little to support football’s NIL efforts. It is joining a conference full of big brands and football-first fan bases. Not a recipe for success.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Maryland in the Big Ten: From ‘what are we doing?’ to ‘amazing decision’

    Big 12

    BYU: +5

    The Cougars have finally climbed the mountaintop after spending their entire history either in a non-power conference or as an independent. They now have direct access to the CFP, and won’t finish ranked 16th with just one loss, as happened in 2020.

    Cincinnati: +4

    The Bearcats’ dream season in 2021 does not have to be an aberration going forward, as they won’t have to go undefeated to make the Playoff. And power-conference status should help them land more recruits in their fertile city and state.

    Houston: +4

    After nearly 30 years in the post-Southwest Conference wilderness, the Cougars are back in a major conference alongside old rivals Baylor, Texas Tech and TCU. But achieving consistent success in the Big 12 is hardly a given after up-and-downs in the AAC.

    UCF: +4

    Like BYU, Cincinnati and Houston, UCF got its Power 4 life raft, and it’s not like the Knights were struggling beforehand. They’ve reached three BCS/CFP bowl games since 2013. The only question is how they’ll fare as a geographic outlier in the new Big 12.

    Baylor: +2

    Since 2013, the Bears have won three Big 12 titles and reached four BCS bowls but have fallen short of reaching the CFP. In a 12-team field, all of those teams would make it. And that was with Texas and Oklahoma in the conference.

    Kansas State: +2

    K-State could thrive in the new world. It would have made the 12-team CFP four times since 2011. It has sneaky-good NIL support. The biggest challenge will be revenue-sharing. Only three public Power 5 schools made less in 2022.

    Oklahoma State: +2

    Mike Gundy has fielded eight double-digit win teams, all of which would have been 12-team CFP contenders. Most of those teams lost to Oklahoma, against which Gundy is 4-15. The Cowboys no longer have to deal with the Sooners.

    TCU: +2

    The Frogs would have made a 12-team field three times since 2014, and, thanks to the Metroplex, they have the highest recruiting ceiling among the holdovers.

    Colorado: +1

    Anything would be better than the Buffs’ abysmal 13-year tenure in the Pac-12. The Buffs get back into the Texas footprint, which they benefitted from in the old Big 12. But the school still faces an uphill climb in the NIL world, with or without Deion Sanders.

    Texas Tech: +1

    The Red Raiders have largely flailed since the late Mike Leach’s 2009 ouster, but it’s not for lack of resources and fan support. Getting out from under Texas could help, and while CFP berths might be infrequent, they’re attainable.

    Iowa State: 0

    The Cyclones, who have not won a conference championship since 1912, will still have all the same evergreen challenges. They could benefit from a more level version of the Big 12, but they’ll still have to perpetually overachieve.

    Kansas: 0

    The same Iowa State blurb can be applied to Kansas, which has finished ranked roughly once per decade. An expanded Playoff gives the Jayhawks slightly more hope for glory, but 2007 seasons may remain incredibly rare.

    Utah: -1

    Utah enters its new league as strong as any of its programs, but man, did the Utes have a good thing going in the Pac-12. Not only did they reach four league title games in five years, but they could lord their Power 5 membership over rival BYU. No more.

    West Virginia: -1

    The Mountaineers have lost a great deal of their identity since leaving the old Big East for the Big 12 in 2012, and the further dilution of the conference won’t help. But they did at least gain their first geographic partner when Cincinnati joined.

    Arizona: -2

    Joining the Big 12 was great for Arizona basketball. Probably not so much for football, where it has little in common with schools in football-crazed Texas. History suggests the Wildcats will rarely contend for a spot in the Playoff.

    Arizona State: -3

    ASU president Michael Crow had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the Big 12. The pro-market school has little in common with the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, which, unlike the Sun Devils, have rabid fan bases.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Welcome to the new Big 12: Featuring Deion, parity, shifts in playing styles

    SEC

    Alabama: +4

    I don’t expect post-Nick Saban Alabama to make a 12-team CFP nearly every single year, like I do Ohio State, simply because of the depth of the SEC. But it’s still one of a small handful of programs built to succeed in any era.

    Georgia: +4

    Now, even Georgia’s “down” seasons might still end in CFP berths. Kirby Smart would currently have seven straight, up from three in eight seasons. Between Smart and Mark Richt, the Bulldogs would have 13 since 2001.

    LSU: +3

    The Tigers have won three national championships this century, but they might have played for even more were there a 12-team field. They would have made nine by now. Of course, they may also fire coaches more frequently for missing the Playoff.

    Texas: +3

    Unlike rival Oklahoma, Texas has won just three conference titles this century, so that shouldn’t be the measuring stick. But Mack Brown showed what the ceiling can be. He would have reached eight 12-team CFPs in a decade.

    Florida: +2

    Florida must play Georgia every year while mixing in Texas and Oklahoma. But a 12-team Playoff could prove a godsend; the Gators would have made the postseason three consecutive times under Dan Mullen and 10 times since 2000.

    Ole Miss: +2

    Ole Miss has not won the SEC since 1963. Oklahoma and Texas won’t make it any easier. But the program can make the 12-team CFP, and its NIL collective has become one of the models in the sport.

    Tennessee: 0

    The Vols are still playing rivals Alabama, Florida and Georgia for the next two seasons while adding Oklahoma. That’s rough. But Tennessee’s collective is strong, and it has the resources and recruiting cachet to reach occasional CFPs.

    Auburn: -1

    A drawing of the history of Auburn football arcs like a roller coaster, with brief spurs of national supremacy mixed in between long stretches of middle-of-the-pack. And the league just added two more above-the-middle historical programs.

    Missouri: -1

    Missouri would have reached 12-team fields in 2007, 2013 and 2023. That development is good. But the Tigers have benefitted at times from being in the SEC’s easier division, which is now gone, and they are .250 all-time against Oklahoma and Texas.

    Arkansas: -2

    On the bright side, Arkansas gets old rival Texas back. On the downside, the Razorbacks have yet to win the SEC in its 32 years of membership, and it’s not getting easier. They would have reached a 12-team CFP three times in those 32 years.

    Texas A&M: -2

    The best thing the Aggies had going for them in the SEC was that Texas wasn’t in it. Alas. The return of annual matchups with the Longhorns should be fantastic for entertainment purposes but could make for a tougher schedule.

    Kentucky: -3

    Mark Stoops is on track to have a statue sculpted for taking the Wildcats to eight straight bowl games, but those Gator and Music City bowls might not feel as significant in the new world. They also may become harder to reach with no SEC East.

    Mississippi State: -3

    The Bulldogs have finished above .500 in SEC play this century just once, in 2014 with Dak Prescott. The SEC getting bigger, and possibly moving to nine conference games, is likely to be unkind for State.

    Oklahoma: -3

    From 1938-2021, the Sooners claimed a Big 8/Big 12 championship in 47 of those 83 seasons. No major program in the country has more league titles. Realistically, OU will not come close to enjoying that level of dominance in the SEC.

    South Carolina: -3

    Save for that one three-year peak under Steve Spurrier from 2011-13, the Gamecocks have rarely lived in the top half of the SEC. Now they’re losing the SEC East. It will become even more difficult to maintain relevance.

    Vanderbilt: -4

    Vanderbilt was already stuck playing the worst cards in the SEC deck. Now there’s a whole new set of challenges stacked against their deck: the bigger SEC, the importance of NIL and roster poaching from the portal.

    The rest

    Notre Dame: +2

    Some might fixate on the fact that the independent Fighting Irish can never get a first-round bye in the new system, but that misses the larger point: They could reach many more CFPs. They would have made five in Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons.

    Oregon State and Washington State: -5

    There’s no sugarcoating it: Two historic Power 5 programs have been relegated to de facto Group of 5 status, playing de facto Mountain West schedules. And unlike actual G5 schools, they have no guaranteed access to the Playoff.

    All Group of 5 programs: -3

    For the first time in history, one of these schools is guaranteed to compete for a national championship every year. But that does not offset the further irrelevance — nor the pain of Power 4 schools poaching all of their best players.

    Bigger takeaways

    1. As usual, the biggest changes to the sport almost always mostly benefit the “big boys” the most. Outside of the former G5 programs moving up, the biggest beneficiaries are the Alabamas, Georgias and Ohio States of the sport. There are, however, a few exceptions: Oklahoma and USC fall into the “be careful what you wish for” category.
    2. And while the Big 12 is currently scrounging for any additional penny it can raise, no conference had a higher percentage of on-field gainers. That’s because Playoff berths are now attainable for the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and TCU.
    3. Only two of the former Pac-12 schools (Oregon and Colorado) got a positive score, as most are entering their new conferences begrudgingly. It will never not be stupefying to think about how Pac-12 leadership screwed it up so badly.

    (Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Sam Wasson, Kevin C. Cox, Scott Taetsch, Brett Deering / Getty)

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  • Men’s college basketball Top 25: Alabama, Gonzaga, Houston lead updated rankings

    Men’s college basketball Top 25: Alabama, Gonzaga, Houston lead updated rankings

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    After the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline passed on Wednesday night, we finally have a clearer picture of what rosters will look like when the season starts in November.

    This transfer portal season has been as crazy as ever, and a lot has changed since we last did this exercise on championship night. It’s possible that a few of these teams will make some late portal additions or sign an overseas prospect or two, but today marks the first day when putting out a super-early Top 25 actually makes sense. So here it is, starting with a No. 1 team that is very much there because of the last-second withdrawal decision by a star player.

    Previous rank: 6

    Projected starters: Mark Sears, Chris Youngblood (transfer), Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Grant Nelson, Clifford Omoruyi (transfer)

    Top reserves: Aden Holloway (transfer), Derrion Reid (freshman), Jarin Stevenson, Houston Mallette (transfer), Aiden Sherrill (freshman), Mouhamed Dioubate, Naas Cunningham (freshman), Labaron Philon (freshman)

    Nate Oats has assembled the best 3-point shooting team in the country. In addition to Sears and Wrightsell, he signed three transfer guards who all made 50-plus 3s last season, and two of the three (Youngblood and Mallette) shot 40-plus percent from 3. Oats also improved his defense with former Rutgers center Omoruyi, who anchored the fifth-ranked defense in college hoops, and he signed four top-40 freshmen. This is a ridiculously deep roster with arguably the best offensive weapon in the country (Sears) and enviable athleticism and positional size. Alabama’s defense has teeter-tottered between elite and mediocre the last four years with adjusted defensive ranks of third, 92nd, third and 111th. So the Crimson Tide are due to be good on that end again. That’s the only real question mark here, because we know this team will have no problem scoring.

    2. Gonzaga

    Previous: 2

    Projected starters: Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman, Steele Venters, Ben Gregg, Graham Ike

    Top reserves: Braden Huff, Michael Ajayi (transfer), Khalif Battle (transfer), Dusty Stromer

    Gonzaga returns four of five starters and gets back Venters, the 2022-23 Big Sky Player of the Year who missed last season with a torn ACL. Last year, the Zags took off when Mark Few moved Gregg into the starting lineup at the three. Few has the lineup versatility to go big again if that’s what’s best. Huff would start for most high-major programs. Gonzaga’s bench might just be good enough to form a top-25 team by itself. Battle averaged 26.7 points over his last nine games at Arkansas; Stromer shot 36.6 percent from 3 as a freshman and started 14 games; Ajayi averaged 17.2 points and shot 47 percent from 3 at Pepperdine; and Braeden Smith, who is redshirting, was the Patriot League player of the year at Colgate. Like Alabama, the Zags need to improve on defense, but this is another team that should score easily. Few has smartly surrounded Ike with floor spacers to give him room to feast in the post.

    Previous: 3

    Projected starters: Milos Uzan (transfer), LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, J’Wan Roberts, Ja’Vier Francis

    Top reserves: Joseph Tugler, Terrance Arceneaux, Ramon Walker, Mercy Miller (freshman), Chase McCarty (freshman)

    When Tugler suffered a season-ending foot injury on Feb. 27, Houston was the best team in college hoops, according to metrics, and clearly the best defensive team. Houston’s adjusted defensive efficiency was 84.6; the next best was Iowa State at 89.9. The Cougars lost their most important player in Jamal Shead, but the rest of the rotation is back. Uzan has already proven to be a quality Big 12 guard at Oklahoma, and Houston’s only real issue late in the year was depth. Tugler and Arceneaux give a huge boost there. They’re the best two pro prospects on the team. Kelvin Sampson would probably tell you he has seven starters. Also worth noting: Houston has won 30-plus games three straight seasons, and that followed a Final Four run. Always bet on Sampson.

    Previous: 7

    Projected starters: Dajuan Harris Jr., Rylan Griffen (transfer), AJ Storr (transfer), KJ Adams, Hunter Dickinson

    Top reserves: Zeke Mayo (transfer), Elmarko Jackson, Flory Bidunga (freshman), Zach Clemence, Rakease Passmore (freshman), Jamari McDowell

    The Jayhawks looked like a team from another era last season. When they were playing well, their ball movement was exquisite, and they ran beautiful offense. But it was hard to sustain without enough shooting and a perimeter scorer who could create his own. It was only the third time in Bill Self’s tenure that KU ranked outside the top 40 in adjusted offense. That’s where the transfers come in. Self addressed the playmaking and shooting problem with Griffen, Storr and Mayo. Self also has more lineup versatility with big wings like Griffen and Storr who can man the four in smaller lineups, and then a more athletic backup five in Bidunga to take over when Dickinson is struggling guarding ball screens. This is still somewhat of a throwback startling lineup with a non-shooter like Adams at the four, but the roster construction makes more sense on paper.


    Tamin Lipsey leads an Iowa State team with high expectations. (Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)

    5. Iowa State

    Previous: 4

    Projected starters: Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson (transfer), Dishon Jackson (transfer)

    Top reserves: Curtis Jones, Nate Heise (transfer), Demarion Watson, Brandton Chatfield, Nojus Indrusaitis (freshman), Dwayne Pierce (freshman)

    The best defense in college basketball last season should be back near the top, as three starters return and T.J. Otzelberger replaces the other two with strong defenders in Jefferson and Jackson. Saint Mary’s had the No. 7 defense last season with Jefferson in the lineup, per Bart Torvik. And Otzelberger has proven he can build elite defenses, finishing top 10 in adjusted defense in his first three years in Ames. The Cyclones are going to guard. Otzelberger also has been nails at finding underrated transfers who thrive in his system. Last year it was Gilbert and Jones. We can probably expect that Jackson, Heise and Chatfield will surpass expectations. This will be the first time Otzelberger’s Cyclones will have to deal with lofty preseason expectations, but it seems like he has the type of culture that will not let that poison their egos.

    6. Duke

    Previous: 1

    Projected starters: Caleb Foster, Tyrese Proctor, Mason Gillis (transfer), Cooper Flagg (freshman), Khaman Maluach (freshman)

    Top reserves: Maliq Brown (transfer), Kon Knueppel (freshman), Isaiah Evans (freshman), Darren Harris (freshman), Patrick Ngongba II (freshman), Sion James (transfer)

    Jon Scheyer seemed to be trying to bring in complementary players out of the portal, building around the talents of Flagg with low-usage, high-efficiency guys like Gillis, Brown and James. It wouldn’t be shocking if this is the best team in college basketball based on the talent level. With so much youth, I want to see it first. But Scheyer will likely bring two five-stars off the bench in Evans and Knueppel while starting two projected lottery picks in the frontcourt. This team could be elite defensively, as Proctor found his calling on that end last year and both Flagg and Maluach project as high-level shot blockers. Duke has great positional size, with everyone in the rotation at 6-foot-5 or taller. Flagg is the key to the offense. He needs to be able to score and allow Duke to play through him to set up others, similar to how Scheyer used Kyle Filipowski. Leaning on freshmen only works when those are top-end lottery picks. Scheyer is banking on Flagg living up to the hype.

    7. Connecticut

    Previous: 5

    Projected starters: Hassan Diarra, Aidan Mahaney (transfer), Solomon Ball, Alex Karaban, Samson Johnson

    Top reserves: Tarris Reed Jr. (transfer), Liam McNeeley (freshman), Jaylin Stewart, Jayden Ross, Ahmad Nowell (freshman), Isaiah Abraham (freshman)

    We’re at the point now where you just assume Dan Hurley’s plan will work. He has nailed roster construction the last few years and built offensive and defensive schemes ideal for his talent. Adding shooting this spring with Mahaney and McNeeley was huge, and Karaban decided to return for a run at a three-peat. Hurley’s offense hums when the Huskies can hunt early 3s and they have optimal floor spacing. That’s not the specialty of sophomores Ball, Stewart and Ross. For UConn to hit its ceiling, Mahaney needs to play to his potential. Diarra is more of a complementary guard, and Mahaney basically replicated his freshman season this past year when it was expected he’d make a star’s leap. He replaces the off-the-dribble playmaking from Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer, and that’s why his success is so important. Hurley has again set it up so his centers can split time and give opponents two different looks. This roster doesn’t appear as talented as the last two, but underrating UConn early has also become a yearly tradition.

    Previous: 8

    Projected starters: Zakai Zeigler, Jahmai Mashack, Chaz Lanier (transfer), Igor Milicic Jr. (transfer), Felix Okpara (transfer)

    Top reserves: Jordan Gainey, Darlinstone Dubar (transfer), JP Estrella, Cameron Carr, Cade Phillips, Bishop Boswell (freshman)

    Tennessee has been a top-five seed for six straight NCAA Tournaments and plugged any potential holes in the portal. We know this team is going to be elite defensively, because Rick Barnes constructs rosters with defense in mind. The question mark is on the offensive end and replacing Dalton Knecht. That’s likely by committee, but the hope is that North Florida transfer Lanier can step into the go-to guy role. Lanier is coming off a season in which he averaged 19.7 points and shot 44 percent from 3. Zeigler was one of the best two-way point guards in the country the second half of the season and is one of the best setup men in the country, so the ball will likely be in his hands a lot. And this roster has even more shooting than it did a year ago with guys like Lanier, Darlingstone and Gainey all considered knockdown shooters. The wildcard on this roster is Carr. His body wasn’t quite ready as a freshman, but he’s got the tools to be a star. The Vols are so deep on the perimeter that he doesn’t need to be that yet, but a breakout sophomore season could be in the works.

    Previous: 11

    Projected starters: Jaden Bradley, Caleb Love, KJ Lewis, Trey Townsend (transfer), Motiejus Krivas

    Top reserves: Tobe Awaka (transfer), Anthony Dell’Orso (transfer), Carter Bryant (freshman), Emmanuel Stephen (freshman)

    Arizona had the 10th-best defense in college basketball last season and could be even better this year. The Wildcats upgrade on the defensive end with Krivas and Bradley in for the departed Oumar Ballo and Kylan Boswell. Arizona was 20 points per 100 possessions better with Bradley on the floor without Boswell compared to when Boswell played without Bradley, per CBB Analytics. The return of Love is the big story here. He was much more efficient in an Arizona uniform than he was at UNC, and Tommy Lloyd has enough around him that he doesn’t have to go into hero mode. The addition of Trey Townsend gives Arizona more offensive punch from the four spot. Lloyd loves to play fast, and this roster is built to do so.

    Previous: 10

    Projected starters: JP Pegues (transfer), Miles Kelly (transfer), Denver Jones, Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell

    Top reserves: Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford (freshman), Jahki Howard (freshman), Chaney Johnson, Chris Moore, Ja’Heim Hudson (transfer)

    Auburn returns three of its top four leading scorers from a team that finished fourth at KenPom. The big returner here is Broome, who was one of the most effective big men in the country. Bruce Pearl leaned heavily on his depth last season and will likely do so again, but the one guy who may log heavy minutes is Broome, who will play at both the four and five with Jaylin Williams no longer around. Broome and Cardwell logged only 12 minutes together last season, per CBB Analytics, but they’ll likely start alongside each other this season. Kelly, Georgia Tech’s leading scorer last season, gives the Tigers another consistent scorer on the perimeter. Auburn could elevate into a top-five team if the point guard play is better and not as inconsistent as it has been in recent years. The Tigers addressed that in recruiting by landing Pegues, who averaged 18.4 points and 4.8 assists at Furman, and Pettiford, the second-ranked point guard in the 2024 class.

    11. Texas A&M

    Previous: 21

    Projected starters: Wade Taylor IV, Zhuric Phelps (transfer), Manny Obaseki, Solomon Washington, Pharrel Payne (transfer)

    Top reserves: Andersson Garcia, Jace Carter, C.J. Wilcher (transfer), Henry Coleman III, Hayden Hefner, Andre Mills (freshman)

    When Buzz Williams moved Obaseki into the starting lineup with eight games to go, the Aggies became one of the best teams in the country. They won six of eight and ranked as the fifth-best team over that timespan, per Torvik, and ended up losing to top-seeded Houston in overtime. Tyrece Radford, a big part of that run, is gone, but Williams brought in another athletic attacking guard to replace him in Phelps. Payne, who will likely start at center, is an upgrade from what A&M had at that position, and he fits perfectly with this group. He was Minnesota’s best offensive rebounder — ranking 67th nationally — and with Garcia, Washington and Coleman back, the Aggies will likely once again lead the country in offensive rebounding rate. That allowed A&M to still have a good offense during a horrible shooting year, but the shooting should get better. Taylor is bound to shoot it better, and A&M added some shooting off the bench with Wilcher, who made 50 3s and shot 39.4 percent for Nebraska last season.


    RJ Davis is back after earning first-team All-America honors. (Greg Fiume / Getty Images)

    12. North Carolina

    Previous: 9

    Projected starters: Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson (freshman), Cade Tyson (transfer), Jalen Washington

    Top reserves: Seth Trimble, Ven-Allen Lubin (transfer), Drake Powell (freshman), Jae’Lyn Withers, Zayden High

    North Carolina is going to be different without a low-post threat like Armando Bacot on the blocks, but the loss that stings is Harrison Ingram staying in the NBA Draft. Ingram was a Swiss Army knife for the Tar Heels and played a big role in the massive defensive leap they made last season. The offense should still be pretty good, especially if RJ Davis can duplicate or come close to repeating last season. I’m also intrigued to see Cadeau as a sophomore. He struggled shooting the ball as a freshman but he also played a facilitating role at a pretty high level considering his age. If the shot ever comes around, that’s a high-level college point guard. Tyson, a career 44.6 percent 3-point shooter at 6-7, was a smart addition. Lubin gives them some low-post scoring either off the bench or starting at the four. There’s enough talent and experience that it’s an ideal situation for two five-stars to come into. If either Jackson or Powell plays at a one-and-done level and Cadeau makes a sophomore leap, this could be a top-five team.

    13. Purdue

    Previous: 12

    Projected starters: Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Camden Heide, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Caleb Furst

    Top reserves: Myles Colvin, Daniel Jacobsen (freshman), Will Berg, Kanon Catchings (freshman), Gicarri Harris (freshman), Raleigh Burgess (freshman), Brian Waddell

    Purdue’s KenPom finishes in the five years that proceeded the Zach Edey era: 9, 19, 5, 9, 24. It’s going to be difficult to replace Edey, but Matt Painter won a lot of basketball games before Edey showed up and he’ll continue to do so. Painter has a really good core returning, led by Smith, who became a killer in pick-and-roll last season as both a scorer and distributor. If you asked college coaches to rank the best point guards in the country, he’d be near the top. Purdue got a head start on what life without Edey would be like last summer when it went on a foreign tour without him and Kaufman-Renn led the team in scoring. Painter also has three centers on the bench who could be next in line as dominant low-post scorers. The 7-foot-2 Berg has been learning behind Edey the last two years, and then Painter signed two centers in Jacobsen and Burgess. Jacobsen was a standout last weekend at the tryouts for the U.S. U-18 team. When I asked two coaches there who stood out, both mentioned Jacobsen, with one saying he’ll eventually be a star. He’s 7-3, skilled and playing at Purdue, so odds are in his favor.

    14. Marquette

    Previous: 14

    Projected starters: Kam Jones, Stevie Mitchell, Chase Ross, David Joplin, Ben Gold

    Top reserves: Sean Jones, Tre Norman, Zaide Lowery, Al Amadou, Caedin Hamilton (redshirt freshman), Damarius Owens (freshman), Royce Parham (freshman)

    In the six games that Tyler Kolek missed late in the season, Jones averaged 20.8 points and 4.5 assists. So we’ve seen Marquette operate when it’s the Kam Jones Show, and he cooked. I’m not a big sports betting guy, but if there are futures for the 2024-25 All-America team and you can get good odds on Jones, I’d make that gamble. It’s going to be a different look without Kolek and Oso Ighodaro, but Shaka Smart keeps betting on development and it’s made him look really, well, smart. Gold started to show more as a passer his sophomore season in the Ighodaro role, and he adds shooting to the mix. Joplin should be highly motivated after a somewhat disappointing junior season that included a bad finish when he went 2-of-10 against NC State in the Sweet 16. Ross has had flashes that suggest he can be a really good college guard. The Golden Eagles will need him to take on more of an offensive role. These next two years should really show if Smart’s philosophy of staying out of the portal can work long-term, but he’s earned the benefit of the doubt so far.

    Previous: 15

    Projected starters: Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, Langston Love, VJ Edgecombe (freshman), Norchad Omier (transfer)

    Top reserves: Josh Ojianwuna, Jalen Celestine (transfer), Rob Wright (freshman), Jason Asemota (freshman)

    That projected starting lineup is tiny — basically four guards and the 6-7 Omier — but it should be able to score pretty easily. Baylor has leaned heavily on the pick-and-roll game in recent years, and Roach and Omier should be a strong combination. Edgecombe is the swing guy on this team. If he’s a high-level producer right away, then the Bears have a chance to be elite offensively. The worry is whether they’ll be able to stop anyone. Omier is skilled enough to play the four, and Baylor does have a lot of size on the bench. Scott Drew could also start the 6-foot-10 Ojianwuna next to Omier and slide the 6-foot-5 Edgecombe to the three, but he’d lose some scoring. It could take some time to figure out the combinations that work, but it helps that Drew has size on the wing off the bench in Celestine (6-6) and Asemota (6-8).


    Walter Clayton Jr. pulled out of the NBA Draft and is returning to Florida. (Alan Youngblood / AP)

    16. Florida

    Previous: 19

    Projected starters: Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin (transfer), Will Richard, Sam Alexis (transfer), Alex Condon

    Top reserves: Rueben Chinyelu (transfer), Thomas Haugh, Denzel Aberdeen, Isaiah Brown (freshman)

    Florida has one of the best guard trios in the country in Clayton, Martin and Richard. All three made at least 70 3s last season and are good enough to carry an offense when they’re hot. The Gators’ issue last season was on the defensive end, and Todd Golden strengthened that by landing two shot blockers out of the portal in Alexis and Chinyelu. One of those two will likely start alongside Condon, the Aussie big man who is poised for a breakout sophomore season. Golden had his best season at San Francisco in his third year. This will be Year 3 at Florida, and I’d bet on it being his best year yet.

    Previous: Not ranked

    Projected starters: Tre Donaldson (transfer), Rubin Jones (transfer), Roddy Gayle Jr. (transfer), Danny Wolf (transfer), Vladislav Goldin (transfer)

    Top reserves: Nimari Burnett, Sam Walters (transfer), Will Tschetter, Justin Pippen (freshman), Durral Brooks (freshman)

    It’s hard to completely turn over a roster and have a cohesive group in Year 1, but this is a bet on Dusty May pulling it off. May is really good at role definition and getting his guys to buy in. The Wolverines are going to be huge, starting the 7-foot twin towers and then bringing shooters off the bench in the 6-foot-10 Walters and 6-foot-8 Tschetter. Walters can play the three, Gayle (6-4) could play the two and Jones (6-5) can play the point, so May could conceivably play one of the biggest lineups in college basketball. And you could make an argument that has the potential to be Michigan’s best lineup. May just coached the team that ranked No. 1 in minutes continuity and 276th in average height, so this will be a different challenge. But out of the total portal rebuilds, this is the one I’m betting on that the pieces fit best.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Elijah Hawkins (transfer), Chance McMillian, Darrion Williams, JT Toppin (transfer), Fede Federiko (transfer)

    Top reserves: Kevin Overton (transfer), Kerwin Walton, Devan Cambridge, Eemeli Yalaho, Christian Anderson (freshman)

    Grant McCasland has landed the Mountain West Freshman on the Year in back-to-back portal classes, with Toppin following Williams. Both are future NBA players, and Texas Tech has one of the best 2-3-4 combinations in the country. Williams was fantastic the last two months of the season. He had a 10-game stretch when he averaged 17.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and shot 64.2 percent from 3. Toppin gives the Red Raiders another interior scorer and should help the defense. And you could argue McMillian is an upgrade from Pop Isaacs. Isaacs could carry the Red Raiders for stretches, but his efficiency didn’t justify his usage. McMillian is a low-usage, high-efficiency player who is more athletic, a better shooter and a better defender. Hawkins slides into the Joe Toussaint role and Federiko for Warren Washington. Cambridge got a medical redshirt and provides energy off the bench, while both Overton and Walton provide shooting and scoring off the bench.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Myles Rice (transfer), Trey Galloway, Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau, Oumar Ballo (transfer)

    Top reserves: Kanaan Carlyle (transfer), Luke Goode (transfer), Bryson Tucker (freshman), Gabe Cupps, Anthony Leal, Langdon Hatton (transfer), Rob Dockery (redshirt freshman), George Turkson (freshman)

    If going by portal rankings and name recognition, no one had a better offseason than Indiana. Mike Woodson has shown a preference for playing through the post, and he has two of the best low-post scorers in the Big Ten now in Reneau and Ballo.  Indiana had spacing issues last year, but Rice, Carlyle and Goode should help. Rice (27.5 percent) and Carlyle (32 percent) did not shoot the ball well from 3 as freshmen, but both are good foul shooters and it’s within reason to expect progression from deep based on their mechanics and skill. Both should also help in the shot creation department, which was an issue for the Hoosiers last year. Overall, Indiana is just way more talented and deep. Cupps, who started last year, might be sixth in line on IU’s depth chart at guard. All that guard depth also will allow IU some lineup versatility. When one of the bigs goes to the bench, Mgbako can slide to the four and get more shooting and skill on the floor. It’s a huge year for Woodson. Based on this class, Indiana’s donors are coming through financially, but that could quickly change if results don’t follow.

    20. Illinois

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Kylan Boswell (transfer), Kasparas Jakucionis (freshman), Ty Rodgers, Carey Booth (transfer), Tomislav Ivisic (freshman)

    Top reserves: Tre White (transfer), Ben Humrichous (transfer), Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, Jake Davis (transfer), Morez Johnson (freshman)

    This could look like a reach to put Illinois this high, but Brad Underwood has earned the trust. Underwood has prioritized size and skill, and this roster is oozing with upside. Underwood got busy in the portal early and then topped off his class with two international signings whom I’m projecting will both start. Jakucionis, a 6-5 guard, is one of the best young prospects overseas. An NBA scouting contact mentioned Kirk Hinrich as a comp. If Jakucionis were an American, he’d likely be one of the five-stars in this class. Ivisic, a 7-footer, is the twin brother of current Arkansas and ex-Kentucky big man Zvonimir Ivisic. Illinois also added four transfers who play the three or four and stand between 6-6 and 6-10, all of whom can shoot. And the other two freshmen, Johnson and Jason Jakstys, are 6-9 and 6-10 power forwards. Jakucionis, Boswell and Rodgers will be the keys to making it work, as Underwood has gone to a strategy of spreading the floor and leaning on his guards to create advantages. Look for all three to get a shot at continuing the booty ball offense that the Illini adopted for Marcus Domask.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Isaiah Swope (transfer), Josiah Dotzler (transfer), Gibson Jimerson, Kalu Anya (transfer), Robbie Avila (transfer)

    Top reserves: Kobe Johnson (transfer), Larry Hughes II, A.J. Casey (transfer), Kellen Thames

    Indiana State led the nation in effective field-goal percentage last season and ranked fourth the year before; Josh Schertz was in Terre Haute for just three seasons. The man knows how to build an elite offense quickly, and he’s got a head start here with both Avila and Swope following him. Avila is, as Schertz calls him, the hub of his offense. He’s one of the most skilled, unique bigs in college basketball, and if you put just a little bit of shooting and speed around him, it’s probably going to work. Swope was Indiana State’s best scorer before knee problems slowed him midseason, and the offseason will allow him to finally get healthy. Schertz was able to convince Jimerson to take his name out of the portal, keeping one of the best shooters in the country at SLU. He’s a perfect fit for Schertz’s system. Dotzler is a player Schertz loved in high school and gets him on the rebound after struggling to crack the rotation at Creighton. Johnson gives SLU a defensive stopper on the perimeter and was a starter last season for West Virginia. He’ll likely battle Dotzler for that final starting spot on the perimeter. It’s a really good roster in the Atlantic 10, and based on Schertz and Avila’s history together, the offense should sing. The Billikens should be the preseason favorite to win the league.

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Jizzle James, Dan Skillings Jr., Simas Lukosius, Dillon Mitchell (transfer), Aziz Bandaogo

    Top reserves: Day Day Thomas, Connor Hickman (transfer), CJ Fredrick, Tyler Betsey (freshman), Tyler McKinley (freshman), Arrinten Page (transfer), Josh Reed

    Wes Miller had the 19th-best defense last season and quietly landed one of the most athletic fours in the country in Mitchell, who should make Cincy’s defense even better. It’s not going to be easy scoring in the paint against the length of Mitchell and Bandaogo, who are both pogo sticks. Mitchell was once thought to be a one-and-done, lottery-pick talent. He still has the measurables and athleticism to eventually turn into a pro, and maybe a new system and coach will help him reach his potential. The Bearcats were also in need of shooting, as Lukosius was the only real threat from deep last season once Fredrick was injured. They will benefit from Fredrick receiving a sixth year of eligibility and from Hickman, who averaged 14.5 points and shot 40.2 percent from 3 on a good Bradley team. James and Skillings both played their best ball late in the year; if they both make a leap, don’t be shocked if the Bearcats sneak into the top tier of a very deep Big 12.


    Zach Freemantle, shown here way back in 2020, should be healthy again for Xavier. (Joe Robbins / Getty Images)

    23. Xavier

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Dayvion McKnight, Dante Maddox Jr. (transfer), Ryan Conwell (transfer), Zach Freemantle, John Hugley IV (transfer)

    Top reserves: Trey Green, Dailyn Swain, Jerome Hunter, Marcus Foster (transfer), Lassina Traore (transfer), Cam’Ron Fletcher (transfer)

    Remember Freemantle? He averaged 15.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game on a team that was 17-5 and 9-2 in the Big East before he injured his foot two years ago. After two surgeries, Freemantle is healthy, and Sean Miller has surrounded him with one of the best portal classes in the country. Conwell, who averaged 16.6 points and shot 40.7 percent from 3 for Indiana State, is the up-transfer guard I have the most faith in translating to the high-major level. He has the athleticism and playmaking chops to make an impact. Miller has a good mix of playmakers and shooters on the perimeter and depth at every position.

    Previous: 25

    Projected starters: Lamont Butler (transfer), Kerr Kriisa (transfer), Koby Brea (transfer), Andrew Carr (transfer), Amari Willams (transfer)

    Top reserves: Otega Oweh (transfer), Collin Chandler (freshman), Brandon Garrison (transfer), Ansley Almonor (transfer), Travis Perry (freshman)

    It feels like Kentucky is a team full of really good complementary players without a star. But you could have said the same about BYU a year ago, and that team spent most of the year in the Top 25 and had one of the best offenses in college basketball. Mark Pope made it clear he loves shooting and landed two of the best shooters in the portal in Kriisa and Brea. Butler and Oweh give him some athleticism and defensive chops on the perimeter, and Williams and Garrison should do the same on the interior. The one guy who could end up turning into a star is Chandler, a four-star prospect in the 2022 class who spent the last two years on a mission trip. He could change the calculus. But Pope has proven himself as a strong X’s-and-O’s coach, and this is the deepest and most talented roster he’s ever had. Star or no star, this team is probably going to score the ball efficiently and win a lot of games.

    25. St. John’s

    Previous: NR

    Projected starters: Deivon Smith (transfer), Kadary Richmond (transfer), Aaron Scott (transfer), R.J. Luis, Vincent Iwuchukwu (transfer)

    Top reserves: Lefteris Liotopoulos (freshman), Zuby Ejiofor, Jaiden Glover (freshman), Simeon Wilcher, Brady Dunlap

    Rick Pitino landed two of the best point guards in the portal in Smith and Richmond. Both are ball-dominant guards, and it’s justified to question their fit together, but it’s also justified to bank on Pitino getting the absolute best out of them. Outside of Luis, who averaged 10.9 points after transferring from UMass last season, and Scott (11.0 points per game at North Texas) the roster is mostly unproven. But give Pitino an elite backcourt and a former highly-ranked center in Iwuchukwu, and I’m betting one of the best coaches in the history of the game will figure out a way to win. Those two guards would have been the best players on his team last season, and that group just barely missed the NCAA Tournament.

    Next up: Arkansas, UCLA, Louisville, Rutgers, Memphis, Creighton, Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Michigan State, Ohio State, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Georgia, Princeton, Texas, Providence

    (Top photos of Ryan Nembhard, Grant Nelson and Dajuan Harris Jr.: Mitchell Layton, Andy Lyons and Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Conference championship games to settle 2023’s final debates

    The Athletic 133: Conference championship games to settle 2023’s final debates

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    The 2023 season comes down to conference championship weekend. We could have the simplest and most impressive College Football Playoff field in the 10-year history of the event, we could have complete chaos or we could have something in between, with a little bit of last-minute drama.

    Michigan’s win against Ohio State moves the Wolverines up to No. 2 in this week’s rankings and leaves four undefeated Power 5 teams entering the weekend. If Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State win, it’s an easy selection. But the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC games could be very competitive and see undefeated teams lose, giving the committee its hardest decisions since 2014.

    Oregon still likely has the strongest case among one-loss teams. The Ducks were the top-ranked one-loss team by the committee last week, and if they beat Washington, they’ll avenge their only loss of the season. Oregon entered the week as a 9.5-point favorite on BetMGM. An Alabama win against Georgia would create the most chaos, but can you put the Crimson Tide ahead of a Texas team that won in Tuscaloosa?

    It’s impossible to predict what the results will be and what the committee will do. Let’s just appreciate the most consequential conference championship weekend we’ve had in a long time.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: Oregon-Washington making Pac-12 history and more takeaways

    The regular season has come to a close, meaning teams with losing seasons have essentially locked in their final positions in these rankings, pending some small moves due to bowl games. But there can still be a lot of change in the upper half. Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    The only question in the top nine was where to place Ohio State, even though it may be ultimately irrelevant to the Playoff picture with the other one-loss teams playing in championship games. Here, the Buckeyes fall a few spots but remain as the top one-loss team because they have two good wins (Penn State, Notre Dame) plus a one-score loss to the No. 2 team. Oregon has dominated opponents in victory but has no wins over current top-20 teams and a one-score loss to No. 3 Washington. Texas beat Alabama and has a one-score loss to Oklahoma but doesn’t have a second top-25 win. Alabama, of course, lost to Texas and still has an ugly performance against USF on the resume to go with some good wins (Ole Miss, LSU).

    All of those teams could jump Ohio State (and get into the CFP) if they win their conference championship games, and they’ll still likely finish in New Year’s Six games if they lose. Do I think Ohio State would beat those teams right now? Perhaps not. But we try to emphasize resume and head-to-head in these rankings.

    The No. 9 and 10 spots are important for NY6 purposes. Ole Miss actually jumps Missouri here because of its wins against LSU and Tulane (though the Green Wave were playing with their backup QB). While Missouri played Georgia close, its best win was either Tennessee, Kansas State or Memphis, none of which are in my top 25, and the Tigers also lost to LSU, whom Ole Miss beat.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Emerson: Georgia’s three-peat hopes depend on beating familiar nemesis

    11-25

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    9

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    17

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    16

    22

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    23

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    24

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    25

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    26

    Oklahoma slides up to No. 11 after beating TCU. Although No. 12 Penn State has better losses (Ohio State, Michigan), the Sooners have better wins (Texas, SMU, greater margin of victory against West Virginia), and it’s possible Oklahoma could get up to No. 10 if Texas wins the Big 12 and SMU wins the AAC. Louisville slides down to No. 15 after losing to Kentucky, one spot ahead of Notre Dame due to their head-to-head result.

    Tulane beat UTSA and remains the top Group of 5 team at No. 17, ahead of a clash with No. 25 SMU. Liberty is 12-0, and the early-season win against now-10-win New Mexico State is a quality win. James Madison is 11-1 and going bowling, but it’s not eligible for the New Year’s Six. The big question is whether the CFP committee would put a two-loss AAC champion SMU over a potentially 13-0 Liberty.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Sampson: Notre Dame’s largely successful season can’t represent a peak

    26-50

    Not much change in this group. Kansas State drops out of the top 25 after a loss to Iowa State. New Mexico State is up to No. 31 after beating Jacksonville State to move to 10-3. Kentucky’s win against Louisville moves the Wildcats up to No. 43, while No. 48 Northwestern and No. 49 Maryland move into the top 25 after wins against Illinois and Rutgers, respectively. Northwestern has the head-to-head over the Terps. No. 45 Iowa State beat Kansas State but stays behind 9-3 Ohio due to their head-to-head result. Appalachian State whipped Georgia Southern 55-27 to move up to No. 50 with five consecutive wins to close the regular season.

    51-75

    Georgia Tech slides up to No. 51 after battling Georgia to an eight-point loss. Cal jumps up to No. 55 after beating UCLA but remains behind Auburn due to the head-to-head. Fresno State drops to No. 61 after ending its regular season with losses to New Mexico and San Diego State, but the Bulldogs stay ahead of Boise State thanks to their head-to-head win. San Jose State moves up to No. 70 after beating UNLV and closing its regular season with six consecutive wins.

    76-100

    Colorado ended its season losing eight of its last nine games after a 3-0 start, and Deion Sanders’ group sits at No. 79. Bowling Green rises to No. 83 after beating Western Michigan and winning five of its last six games, with the lone loss against Toledo. No. 87 USF got to 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14, and Alex Golesh put together one of the most impressive seasons for a first-year coach this season. Old Dominion beat Georgia State at the buzzer to finish 6-6 and move up to No. 88. The Monarchs played 10 one-score games this season. Utah State beat New Mexico in double-overtime and Louisiana beat ULM, as both got to bowl eligibility.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Feldman’s candidates to replace Dana Holgorsen at Houston

    101-133

    No. 103 Northern Illinois and No. 106 Eastern Michigan both won to get to bowl eligibility, but EMU remains behind Western Michigan and Central Michigan due to losses against both. Vanderbilt finishes as the lowest-ranked Power 5 team at No. 114; Baylor is the next closest at No. 109. Sam Houston closed its season with a walk-off field goal against Middle Tennessee, winning three of its last four games after an 0-8 start. UConn won its final two games against Sacred Heart and UMass to move up to No. 120. Tulsa’s win against East Carolina sees the Golden Hurricane finish at No. 125 and the Pirates finish at No. 128. Kent State finishes as No. 133, having gone 0-11 against FBS competition.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: 11-0 Washington deserves more respect

    The Athletic 133: 11-0 Washington deserves more respect

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    It’s time to put some respect back on Washington’s name.

    The Huskies are undefeated and have the best win in the country, based on these rankings, but they have continually sat outside the top four of the College Football Playoff selection committee’s in-season rankings. That needs to change this week. After pulling out a 22-20 win against Oregon State on a rainy night in Corvallis, Washington has the most impressive resume in the country. The Huskies move up to No. 2 in this week’s Athletic 133.

    Washington has wins over Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Oregon State and USC. Nobody can match that many good victories. Yes, the Huskies needed a pick six and a questionable penalty to escape Arizona State and played Stanford close, but no team blows everyone out every single week.

    Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. struggled at times against the Beaver defense, completing 13 of 28 passes, but he was responsible for all three touchdowns in a difficult environment, and he came up with a clutch third-down completion to Rome Odunze to seal a game which Washington entered as a betting underdog.

    Georgia continues to look like the best team in the country and is getting better every week, but everyone else looks beatable, including Washington. Perhaps Oregon will be favored if the Ducks and Huskies meet again in the Pac-12 championship game, but that’s for another time. Right now, Washington deserves to not only be in the top four but higher than fourth.

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Other than Washington moving up, the only change in the top 10 is Missouri moving in after beating Florida to move to 9-2.

    We’ve never seen a season in the CFP era with five 11-0 Power 5 teams. In theory, the situation could work itself out easily, with Georgia, Washington, Florida State and the Michigan/Ohio State winner making the top four. But the devastating leg injury to Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis could upend that possibility and create some difficult CFP conversations about the ‘Noles. They’ll play Louisville in the ACC championship game, which could be a top-10 matchup.

    11-25

    Penn State’s wins over Iowa and West Virginia have looked better as the season has played out, and the Nittany Lions move up to No. 12, behind Ole Miss because of the Rebels’ wins against LSU and Tulane. Oklahoma drops to No. 14 after escaping BYU. Oregon State drops to No. 16 after its loss, falling just behind Arizona, which demolished Utah 42-18 and beat the Beavers in October. James Madison’s undefeated run is over, but the Dukes don’t fall out of the top 25 because it was an overtime loss and JMU still has a good win against Troy. JMU’s full bowl eligibility waiver was denied, so No. 20 Tulane is in the leading position for the New Year’s Six spot, but the Green Wave play UTSA this week before a potential AAC championship game where they could see No. 26 SMU, which just won at Memphis.

    Toledo is 10-1 and also in that NY6 mix after a late win against Bowling Green; the Rockets also move into the top 25. Iowa landing at No. 16 in last week’s CFP rankings was surprising, especially because it was unranked in the AP Poll. They’re No. 24 here this week. The Hawkeyes don’t have a victory over a team with more than six wins and were blown out by Penn State. Their defense is elite, but Iowa has escaped several .500 Big Ten West teams in recent weeks. They’re ahead of Toledo because the Rockets lost to Illinois in Week 1 and Iowa beat the Illini.

    26-50

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    27

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    28

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    30

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    38

    31

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    32

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    33

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    28

    34

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    46

    35

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    33

    36

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    43

    37

    9-3

    60

    38

    6-5

    37

    39

    7-4

    39

    40

    6-5

    32

    41

    9-2

    44

    42

    7-4

    47

    43

    8-3

    55

    44

    7-4

    61

    45

    6-5

    48

    46

    6-5

    40

    47

    8-3

    42

    48

    8-3

    35

    49

    8-3

    45

    50

    6-5

    41

    Clemson climbs to No. 30 after beating North Carolina. UNLV is up to No. 32 after coming back to beat Air Force. UCLA’s comfortable win over USC moves the Bruins up to No. 34 and USC down to No. 35. I continue to have no idea why Tennessee, No. 33 here, is ranked in the polls.

    Miami’s one-score loss to Louisville sees the Hurricanes only slide to No. 38 and stay ahead of Texas A&M due to their head-to-head result. Duke continues to slide, now down to No. 40 after a loss to Virginia. Wyoming bounces back up to No. 43, aided by its early-season win against Texas Tech, which beat UCF to get to bowl eligibility.

    New Mexico State’s 31-10 win at Auburn to move to 9-3 sees the Aggies jump up to No. 37. The Fightin’ Jerry Kills have won seven consecutive games, overcoming early losses to UMass and Hawaii that make them a bizarre team to place.

    51-75

    Kentucky and Florida fall out of the top 50 after losses to South Carolina and Missouri, respectively. Georgia Tech is up to No. 54 after beating Syracuse to become bowl-eligible. Maryland only slides two spots to No. 55 after playing Michigan close. Appalachian State’s overtime win at James Madison sees the Mountaineers move up to No. 62.

    Wisconsin got back on track with an overtime win against Nebraska to move up to No. 66. Twelve teams in this group of 25 need a win this weekend to get to a bowl game.

    76-100

    In the Week 3 edition of these rankings, Colorado was No. 14 and Arkansas State was dead last at No. 133. Now, they’re next to each other. Colorado has lost six of seven, including a 56-14 pounding at the hands of Washington State on Friday night, to fall to No. 77. Arkansas State dropped 77 points on Texas State to get bowl-eligible and move up to No. 78.

    No. 83 Virginia and No. 84 Michigan State won’t be going to a bowl game, but they picked up conference wins over the weekend. Georgia Southern’s loss to Old Dominion and Georgia State’s loss to LSU see the Sun Belt rivals drop to No. 85 and 86, respectively. It’s been an odd season for No. 89 Army, which has wins against UTSA, Air Force and Coastal Carolina but losses to UMass and Louisiana-Monroe. The Black Knights are the toughest team to rank and only have Navy left.

    101-133

    Navy’s bounceback season continues, now 5-5 and up to No. 107 after beating East Carolina. New Mexico beat Fresno State and moves up to No. 111. Sam Houston continues to battle, leading Western Kentucky in the fourth quarter before losing. The Bearkats move up to No. 127 as a result. Kent State lost 34-3 to Ball State and remains at No. 133 as the only one-win team in FBS.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Tom Hauck / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Five 10-0 Power 5 teams, three weeks to sort them

    The Athletic 133: Five 10-0 Power 5 teams, three weeks to sort them

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    We’re finally in the stretch run. The biggest games have arrived, and the shakeup at the top is underway.

    Michigan finally played a notable team, taking care of Penn State in Happy Valley. Georgia crushed a top-10 Ole Miss team. Washington held on against Utah and Oregon handled USC. They all have more big games to come in the next two weeks before conference championships.

    After all of that, there is a change at the top here. Georgia is back to No. 1 in this week’s Athletic 133.

    The two-time defending national champs have rounded into form, beating up on Kentucky, Florida, Missouri and Ole Miss in their last five games. This past week was a reminder that Georgia at its best again looks like the best team in the country. Oh, and Brock Bowers, one of the nation’s best pass-catchers, is back. With consecutive wins over top-15 teams, the Bulldogs move back in front of Ohio State.

    Still, a CFP spot is not yet guaranteed. Georgia finishes with Tennessee and Georgia Tech, then has the SEC championship game against an Alabama team that has also very much figured things out.

    We have five 10-0 Power 5 teams for the first time since the College Football Playoff began, and none of them have an easy path to the top four. Buckle up.

    Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 133.

    1-10

    As I promised all season, Michigan has slid into the top three after beating Penn State, the Wolverines’ first opponent of note. The victory was very similar to Ohio State’s win over PSU, both in how the game played out with its lack of offensive fireworks, but also in the way the Wolverines and Buckeyes spent most of the game in control. The Buckeyes stay ahead of Michigan by virtue of their win at Notre Dame, but these teams look very even right now. Their meeting in Ann Arbor in two weeks should be another classic.

    Among the one-loss teams, Oregon, Texas and Alabama all have a case to be the best. Alabama has the most quality wins. Texas beat Alabama. Oregon manhandled Utah, beat USC and has the best loss, coming at Washington when the Ducks were two yards away from victory. Oregon ultimately stays atop the group for now after notching a second notable win. The Ducks have No. 10 Oregon State in two weeks. While all the attention is on the 10-0 teams, all three of these teams very much have a path to the CFP. Does Louisville? It’s hard to say. The 9-1 Cardinals had to rally to beat Virginia and lack notable wins, but a potential ACC championship game win against Florida State might make things interesting.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: There’s still hope for compelling rankings drama

    11-25

    Ole Miss continues to prove itself as a good team that is nowhere near the top teams in the country with the nature of its losses to Georgia and Alabama, and the Rebels drop to No. 11. Oklahoma is a tough team to grade. The Sooners lost consecutive games to Kansas and Oklahoma State but also have one of the best wins in the country (Texas), and their win over SMU (now 8-2) continues to look better. Penn State drops back to No. 15 after the loss to Michigan, and the Nittany Lions’ offensive struggles resulted in the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich on Sunday.

    James Madison remains the top-ranked Group of 5 team, up to No. 17 after beating UConn 44-6. The Dukes have wins against Troy (8-2), Virginia, South Alabama and Marshall. Tulane is the top-ranked G5 team eligible for the New Year’s Six, but the Green Wave have had to hang on in four consecutive one-score wins against lesser opponents and stay at No. 21. Tulane is battling injuries, but it keeps the door open for Liberty, which is now 10-0 and up to No. 22 after beating Old Dominion 38-10.

    Arizona moves up to No. 19 after beating Colorado on a last-second field goal, and North Carolina moves into the top 25 again after beating Duke in overtime. Oklahoma State and Kansas fall after losses to UCF and Texas Tech, respectively, but remain in the top 25 for now on the strength of their wins.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    Snyder: James Franklin needs to look in mirror before making next OC hire

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    43

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    51

    44

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    50

    45

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    28

    46

    6-4

    36

    47

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    40

    48

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    53

    49

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    42

    50

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    64

    Iowa is back near the top 25 after a 22-0 win against Rutgers to move to 8-2. Troy, Toledo and SMU continue to move up after wins, and Toledo has won nine consecutive games. Tennessee falls out of the top 25 after a 36-7 loss to Missouri, and next up is Georgia.

    Fresno State tumbles down to No. 35 after a stunning 42-18 loss to San Jose State. UNLV moves up to No. 36 after beating Wyoming, which beat Fresno State, but the Bulldogs have a win over UNLV. Miami lost 27-20 to Florida State but remains at No. 37 thanks to its wins against Clemson and Texas A&M. Auburn’s 48-10 win against Arkansas moves the Tigers up to No. 41. Air Force drops down to No. 45 after a second consecutive loss, this one against Hawaii. UCLA falls to No. 46 after losing 17-7 to Arizona State. Coastal Carolina has won five consecutive games and moves up to No. 50 after beating Texas State.

    51-75

    Virginia Tech jumps to No. 52 after a 48-22 win against Boston College. Rutgers remains ahead at No. 51 thanks to its head-to-head win against the Hokies. Illinois’ overtime win against Indiana sees the Illini climb back up to No. 62. New Mexico State is 8-3 with six consecutive wins, clinching a spot in the CUSA championship game and moving up to No. 60.

    No. 63 Colorado has lost six of seven. No. 64 TCU has lost five of six. No. 67 Washington State has lost six consecutive games, and No. 70 Wisconsin has lost four of five, including consecutive losses to Indiana and Northwestern.

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    Boise State head coach job profile, key factors for next hire

    76-100

    Georgia State has tumbled down to No. 77 after three consecutive lopsided losses to Georgia Southern, James Madison and Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have won three consecutive games to move up to No. 76. Marshall beat Georgia Southern to end a five-game losing streak and move up to No. 79.

    A shorthanded Arizona State beat UCLA and moved up to No. 83. Purdue beat Minnesota 49-30 to move up to No. 89, Cincinnati moved up to No. 90 after beating Houston, and San Jose State jumped up to No. 94 after beating Fresno State. Virginia is 2-8 but continues to play close games to the end, most recently against Louisville, so the Cavaliers remain at No. 98.

    101-133

    Sam Houston is on a winning streak! The Bearkats got their first win as an FBS team last week and got their first FBS win against an FBS team this weekend by beating Louisiana Tech. As a result, they get out of the No. 133 spot and jump up to No. 128. Navy’s 31-6 win against UAB sees the Midshipmen move up to No. 108 and the Blazers drop behind them. Vanderbilt is the lowest-ranked Power 5 team at No. 111, losing to South Carolina 47-6.

    (Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Ohio State on the rise in Week 8 as Penn State, USC slide

    The Athletic 133: Ohio State on the rise in Week 8 as Penn State, USC slide

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    Sign up for the Until Saturday newsletter | Jayna Bardahl and The Athletic’s college football staff deliver expert analysis on the biggest CFB stories five days per week. Get it sent to your inbox.


    Week 8 turned out to be Survival Saturday within much of the top 10.

    Washington escaped Arizona State, thanks to a picked-up flag and a late pick six. Oklahoma escaped UCF by stopping a late two-point conversion. Texas escaped Houston with a fourth down stop. Florida State came back to beat Duke, a game that turned when Duke quarterback Riley Leonard was injured again.

    As a result, there is a shakeup in this week’s Athletic 133 and a new No. 1: Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat Penn State 20-12, holding the Nittany Lions to a 1-for-16 performance on third down. That gives Ohio State two wins over current top-15 teams, enough to catapult the Buckeyes to No. 1 this week.

    Does this mean Ohio State will beat Michigan? I don’t know. The Wolverines have won the last two against Ohio State and have been a buzzsaw against weak competition this year. They look really, really good again. The escapes by other top-10 teams do help the case for Michigan, which hasn’t had such struggles. But as I get ahead of explaining each week, I can’t put a team whose current best win is Rutgers much higher yet. Once Michigan plays Penn State on Nov. 11, that’ll change. I actually have Michigan in my CFP predictions. But these rankings are not predictions. They’re an attempt to evaluate what you’ve done. Margin of victory matters, but who you’ve played weighs more.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: Weak Michigan schedule doesn’t mean it can’t be voted No. 1

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Georgia remains at No. 2 while idle. Florida State moves up to No. 3 thanks to its win and Washington/Oklahoma scraping by. Michigan leaps Texas after the Longhorns barely got out of Houston. Oregon and Oregon State slide into the top 10. The Ducks beat Washington State 38-24, while Oregon State was idle. The Beavers gave Utah their only loss earlier in the season.

    11-25

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    12

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    26

    Utah jumps to No. 11 after beating USC. Both Penn State and North Carolina fell out of the top 10 after losses. The Nittany Lions drop to No. 13 because they lack notable wins, but the Tar Heels fall to No. 18 after losing to a 1-5 Virginia team at home. Duke was in a battle with Florida State until quarterback Riley Leonard reinjured his right ankle, an unfortunate turn of events. The Blue Devils fall from No. 15 to No. 19. USC hangs on in the top 25 after yet another loss to Utah, and Kentucky slides into the top 25 while idle, on the strength of its earlier win against Florida.

    go-deeper

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    Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Is the Big Ten’s ‘Big Three’ really just a ‘Big One’?

    26-50

    Iowa is the only team to drop out of the top 25, falling to No. 27. Yes, a fluky referee decision changed what would’ve been a game-winning play, but it was still an ugly affair against a struggling Minnesota team. Oklahoma State has figured things out with three consecutive wins against Kansas State, Kansas and West Virginia to jump up to No. 28. Tennessee sits at No. 29 after losing a halftime lead against Alabama. I remain surprised the Vols are ranked in the polls given their loss to Florida and their best win coming against Texas A&M.

    Miami’s overtime win against Clemson sees the Hurricanes rise to No. 30. The Tigers fall down to No. 37. TCU lost 41-3 to Kansas State, and BYU beat Texas Tech, but both the Horned Frogs and Cougars remain in their position because of TCU’s blowout of BYU just last week. Georgia State moves into the top 50 after getting to 6-1.

    51-75

    UNLV is 6-1 and bowl-eligible for the second time since 2000 after beating Colorado State to move up to No. 57. Boston College has won three consecutive games since an ugly start to the year and now sits at 4-3 overall and No. 58 in the rankings. UTSA is 3-0 since quarterback Frank Harris came back, beating FAU 36-10 to jump up to No. 60. Jacksonville State jumps up to No. 63 after beating Western Kentucky. Like James Madison, Jax State can only reach a bowl game if there aren’t enough 6-6 teams.

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    Saturday Superlatives: Another Utah-USC classic, upsets and scares galore

    76-100

    Not a ton of movement in this group. Old Dominion’s 28-21 win against Appalachian State moves the Monarchs up to No. 88. FAU was blown out by UTSA and USF beat UConn, but FAU remains ahead of USF after the Owls’ win over the Bulls last week. Northern Illinois has won three consecutive games to get up to No. 91. One week after Stanford beat Colorado, the Cardinal lost 42-7 to UCLA and drop back down to No. 95. Michigan State’s 49-0 loss to Michigan drops the Spartans down to No. 97.

    101-133

    Nevada ended its 16-game losing streak with a 6-0 win against San Diego State, so the Wolf Pack get out of the bottom spot. The new No. 133 is Sam Houston, which is 0-7. The Bearkats were 1:11 away from beating Jacksonville State, three yards away from beating Liberty and one fourth-and-18 stop away from beating FIU. Alas, they have yet to get their first FBS win. Elsewhere in this group, East Carolina drops to No. 126 after a 10-7 loss to Charlotte, and New Mexico State moved up to No. 108 with its third consecutive win.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Ben Jackson / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Why Washington has earned the No. 1 ranking at midseason

    The Athletic 133: Why Washington has earned the No. 1 ranking at midseason

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    It’s rare that a monster game lives up to the hype. We’ve now had it happen two weeks in a row in college football, shaking up the rankings.

    Last week, Oklahoma beat Texas with a touchdown in the final seconds. This week, Washington beat Oregon with a late fourth-down stop, a touchdown and a missed Ducks field goal as time expired. We knew Washington looked like world-beaters up to this point. The Huskies just hadn’t played anyone notable. Placed in one of the biggest games of the year, Washington and Michael Penix Jr. delivered. As a result of the 36-33 win, Washington takes the top spot in this week’s Athletic 133.

    Penix took control of the Heisman Trophy race with his performance and a seemingly never-ending supply of good wide receivers. The Huskies aren’t perfect, but they game-planned well with a banged-up offensive line, and the defense got the stops when they needed them, keeping Oregon to 0-for-3 on fourth downs.

    It’s a top-three win for any team this season, also up there with Texas beating Alabama on the road and Oklahoma beating Texas on a neutral site. That Oregon win, coupled with the strong play otherwise (including a win at Arizona that looks a lot better recently), moves Washington to No. 1 for now. But we’ve got a lot more top-10 matchups coming this year.

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Other than Washington’s move up to No. 1, the only other changes in here include Michigan hopping past Penn State to No. 7 and North Carolina sliding into No. 10 after taking care of Miami. On the Michigan point, the Wolverines leap the Nittany Lions because their Rutgers win is now essentially equal to Penn State’s West Virginia win (though neither is very notable), and Michigan has been so dominant otherwise. As I say every week, Michigan looks extremely good. The Wolverines just don’t play anyone notable until Penn State on Nov. 11. If they win that game, they’ll rocket up near the very top, just like Washington did. As for the comparison to Georgia, the Bulldogs have a blowout top-30 win against Kentucky. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Penn State meet this coming weekend.

    GO DEEPER

    Auerbach’s Top 10: Washington takes No. 1, UNC enters the mix

    11-25

    Rank Team Record Prev

    11

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    12

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    13

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    15

    16

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    19

    17

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    20

    18

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    12

    19

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    21

    20

    6-1

    23

    21

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    35

    22

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    36

    23

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    33

    24

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    34

    25

    4-2

    16

    Oregon slips just out of the top 10 to No. 11. While the Ducks played well and nearly beat Washington on the road, they don’t have a notable win to justify a top-10 spot at the moment, unlike Texas. Oregon State sits just behind at No. 12 after a 36-24 win against UCLA. Louisville was the most difficult team to place this week. The Cardinals lost to Pitt 38-21 but remain at No. 13 because their lopsided win against Notre Dame last week looks much better after the Fighting Irish beat USC. I can’t yet justify putting a two-loss Notre Dame ahead of Louisville after what we just saw last week, so they remain in place for now. It’s always natural to move teams each week after a win or loss, but previous games matter, too.

    After a bunch of losses from the bottom of this group, a handful of Group of 5 teams slide into the top 25, including Air Force (No. 21), Tulane (No. 23) and James Madison (No. 24). The Falcons and Dukes are undefeated, while Tulane beat Memphis on the road. Iowa also jumps up to No. 22 after beating Wisconsin on the road to move to 6-1. Whatever you think of the offense and the injuries, the Hawkeyes keep winning.

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    Ubben: Iowa to the College Football Playoff? Avert your eyes — but it’s possible

    26-50

    Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee were also very difficult to place, just outside the top 25. They all have similar records, but Kentucky walloped Florida, which beat Tennessee. I wanted to put Florida and Tennessee in the top 25 after Kentucky lost to Missouri, but I can’t do it quite yet because of that Kentucky-Florida result.

    Arizona makes another big leap up to No. 30 after finally getting a breakthrough win, destroying Washington State 44-6 one week after taking USC to overtime and losing to Washington by just seven before that. Quarterback Noah Fifita (342 passing yards) has changed the trajectory for the Wildcats. Oklahoma State similarly makes a big jump to No. 36 thanks to a quarterback decision (Alan Bowman) that has fixed things, with consecutive wins against Kansas State last week and Kansas this week. The Jayhawks don’t fall behind the Cowboys, though, because starting quarterback Jalon Daniels didn’t play in Stillwater.

    Miami (No. 39) and Texas A&M (No. 40) continue to tumble after losses. Iowa State has won three of its last four games since a loss to Ohio, which stunningly lost to Northern Illinois this weekend. And Liberty finally played a somewhat notable opponent, handling 5-1 Jacksonville State to move up to No. 38. Troy is also back on track with a 19-0 shutout of Army, its fourth consecutive win.

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    What we learned in CFB’s first half: Pac-12 peaking, UGA cruising, and who’s ‘back’?

    51-75

    Georgia State moves up to No. 51 after a 41-24 win against Marshall to get to 5-1 on the season. A lot of teams dropped out of the top 50 after losses, including Memphis (No. 54), NC State (No. 54), South Carolina (No. 55), Auburn (No. 56) and Texas Tech (No. 63). There were more drops from the likes of Arkansas (No. 62), Syracuse (No. 64) and Cal (No. 65) with losses. Texas State, meanwhile, escaped ULM to move to 5-2 overall and up to No. 68, while UNLV beat Nevada to get to 5-1 and move to No. 69.

    UTSA seems to have rounded into form with Frank Harris playing again, beating UAB convincingly to move to No. 71, and Virginia Tech has won two of its last three after beating Wake Forest 30-13 to move up to No. 72.

    76-100

    Houston (No. 78) beat West Virginia on a Hail Mary and Colorado State (No. 84) beat Boise State on a Hail Mary, but other previous results keep both teams from moving higher for now. Michigan State blew a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead against Rutgers and continues to fall apart, now down to No. 88 with Michigan coming to town next week.

    USF is a very difficult team to place. Since playing Alabama close and winning the next two games, the Bulls have lost to UAB and FAU convincingly in the last two weeks and have tumbled to No. 93. Army continues to struggle, getting shut out by Troy and dropping to No. 95. Central Michigan (No. 94) is a tough team to play, beating South Alabama but losing to Buffalo and holding on to beat Akron 17-10 this week.

    101-133

    No. 101 Northern Illinois has wins against Boston College and now Ohio to go with losses against FCS Southern Illinois and Tulsa. But over the last three weeks, the Huskies seem to have turned things around. Keep an eye on them. Sam Houston, still looking for its first win as an FBS program, fell behind quickly to New Mexico State and tumbles down to No. 132. But Nevada, with its 16th consecutive loss, this one to rival UNLV, remains No. 133.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.

    The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Jesse Beals / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: Who knocked Georgia off the top spot after Week 5?

    The Athletic 133: Who knocked Georgia off the top spot after Week 5?

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    It’s been a while since we’ve had a season without a clear-cut No. 1 team this deep into the fall.

    Several teams can make a case, and there are still many big games to be played. But at this point, it’s time for a change. Texas is the new No. 1 in this week’s Athletic 133.

    There are two reasons for it. The first is Texas itself. The Longhorns went to Alabama and handled the Crimson Tide in what is the most impressive single win of the season. Texas also took care of business with blowouts of Baylor and Kansas in the last two weeks. Yes, Texas had a brief scare against Wyoming, but the other teams in the top four have each had a scare against an inferior team as well. The Longhorns have played like the best team in the country and have a marquee win. That’s good for No. 1.

    The second reason is Georgia. We’re almost halfway through the season, and these slow starts can’t be ignored anymore. The Bulldogs trailed South Carolina at halftime and needed a second-half comeback to beat an Auburn team that was pushed around by Texas A&M last week and barely escaped Cal. Georgia hasn’t lost, but the Dawgs don’t have a notable win, unlike Texas (Alabama), Ohio State (Notre Dame) and Florida State (LSU, Clemson). Sagarin ranks Georgia’s schedule strength at 130th nationally. It’s not that bad, but nothing Georgia has done this year is worth a No. 1 ranking at this point compared to other teams.

    Now, believing in Texas might be famous last words for one week. The Longhorns play Oklahoma in Dallas this Saturday. If they win, we might see everyone else come around and rank Texas at No. 1. But I’m making the move now. If the Longhorns lose, well, that’s what I get for thinking Texas has turned a corner. These rankings aren’t meant to be predictive. They’re based solely on what has been accomplished, and thus far, Texas deserves that spot.

    GO DEEPER

    Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: Why I moved Texas to No. 1 over Georgia

    Here is this week’s Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Outside of Texas and Georgia, the other notable move in this group is USC. The Trojans get jumped by Oregon on account of their results against common opponent Colorado, and by Notre Dame after the Irish rallied to beat Duke in the final seconds. USC now sits at No. 10.

    Florida State and Ohio State were both idle, while Oregon and Washington are both off this coming week before playing each other in Seattle on Oct. 14 in a massive game. Michigan finally dominated an opponent (Nebraska) from start to finish like it should, but again, the Wolverines are going to just float around in these rankings until they play a notable opponent (Penn State on Nov. 11) or the teams ahead of them drop games. It’s the same as Georgia. The Bulldogs just started higher. Both teams have played very easy schedules, making their rankings basically irrelevant for now. They have the talent to win the national championship. They just don’t have the resume yet.

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    How good is Washington? After a sizzling start, the Huskies got tested Saturday

    11-25

    Maybe Alabama has figured some things out? The Crimson Tide have rebounded from the scare at USF with multi-score wins against Ole Miss and Mississippi State, and they move up to No. 11. Oklahoma continues to look dominant but hasn’t played anyone of note yet, so the Sooners sit behind North Carolina and Washington State. We’ll get a good read on Oklahoma against Texas this Saturday.

    Duke was one fourth-and-long stop away from beating Notre Dame, so the Blue Devils only fall one spot to No. 15. Oregon State rises ahead of Utah up to No. 17 after beating the shorthanded Utes on Friday night. Ole Miss dropped out of the top 25 after losing to Alabama, but the Rebels are back in at No. 20 after their wild 55-49 win against LSU, which falls to No. 24.

    Maryland and Kentucky, both 5-0, have moved into the top 25. The Wildcats sit slightly ahead at No. 21 thanks to the win against Florida this weekend. Texas A&M also slides in at No. 25. The Aggies may have figured things out since Max Johnson became quarterback, with consecutive wins against Auburn and Arkansas.

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    GO DEEPER

    Auerbach’s Top 10: Week 5 leaves some contenders sweating more than others

    26-50

    Rank Team Record Prev

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    30

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    34

    32

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    24

    33

    3-1

    31

    34

    4-1

    32

    35

    5-0

    37

    36

    5-0

    46

    37

    5-0

    48

    38

    4-1

    41

    39

    4-1

    49

    40

    3-2

    25

    41

    4-1

    44

    42

    4-1

    47

    43

    4-1

    36

    44

    4-1

    52

    45

    4-0

    55

    46

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    45

    47

    3-2

    38

    48

    2-3

    39

    49

    3-2

    50

    50

    3-2

    40

    Kansas falls just out of the top 25 after its 26-point loss to Texas because it didn’t have quarterback Jalon Daniels. Florida only remains in the top 30 for now by virtue of its win against Tennessee. Louisville is 5-0 but still outside the top 25 due to a weak schedule and close calls against Georgia Tech and Indiana. A home game this Saturday against Notre Dame will give us a true read on the Cardinals. Colorado only falls to No. 32 after rallying to within seven of USC late. The Buffs have a lot of problems, but they can still score.

    Tulane remains the top Group of 5 team (No. 34) after a comeback win against UAB, but undefeated Fresno State, James Madison and Air Force are right on the heels of the Green Wave. Fresno State’s game against Wyoming this week is a big one that could boost the Bulldogs into the top 25.

    51-75

    Arkansas and Mississippi State fall out of the top 50 after lopsided losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, respectively. Troy got back on track with a dominant win against previously undefeated Georgia State and moves up to No. 54. One week after comfortably beating Wake Forest, Georgia Tech lost to Bowling Green, making the Yellow Jackets a difficult team to place. They are now down to No. 61.

    USF has beaten Rice and Navy since its narrow loss against Alabama, and the Bulls rise up to No. 65. Texas State is 4-1 and ninth nationally in scoring, and the Bobcats are up to No. 66. Michigan State allowed 26 points to Iowa but just one offensive touchdown, which is a pretty typical way to lose to Iowa these days. Purdue handled Illinois 44-19 in a stunning final score; the Boilermakers move up to No. 57 and Illinois falls to No. 72, remaining ahead of Toledo for now because of its head-to-head win. Miami (Ohio) and UNLV are both 4-1 and squeeze into the top 75 as teams to keep an eye on in their respective conferences.

    76-100

    Baylor scored 29 points in the final 19 minutes to come back and beat UCF 36-35 and move up to No. 79. The Bears remain behind UTSA for now due to their loss to common opponent Texas State. San Diego State has lost four in a row, including 49-10 to Air Force on Saturday, and continues to tumble down to No. 83. Virginia Tech got a much-needed 38-21 win against Pitt to jump up to No. 87.

    go-deeper

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    Saturday Superlatives: Top Week 5 highlights, from Ole Miss-LSU to Caleb Williams

    101-133

    Bowling Green, which was blown out by Ohio a week ago, beat Georgia Tech 38-27 to jump up to No. 101. Stanford drops into this group at No. 102 after a 42-6 loss to Oregon. ULM remains at No. 103 after Appalachian State needed a 54-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Warhawks. Virginia is now the lowest-ranked Power 5 at No. 104 after losing to Boston College, which previously held the title.

    Arkansas State, which was No. 133 after Week 2, has won three games in a row and is up to No. 113 after beating UMass. Sam Houston nearly notched its first FBS win but allowed a late Jacksonville State touchdown drive and lost in overtime. Buffalo beat Akron for its first win to get out of the bottom spot, and the new No. 133 is Nevada, which is now on a 15-game losing streak.

    The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

    (Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

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  • Inside Brett Yormark’s yearlong push to get the Big 12 to 16

    Inside Brett Yormark’s yearlong push to get the Big 12 to 16

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    Mack Rhoades was pacing in his vacation home in New Mexico, starting to seriously fear the deal was falling apart. Brett Yormark was back home in New York on an endless run of phone calls. It wasn’t looking good.

    Arizona was supposed to be across the finish line. The school had already requested and was approved for Big 12 membership. Yormark, the Big 12 commissioner, awaited final verbal confirmation late on the night of Aug. 3. Arizona president Bobby Robbins went into a Board of Regents meeting to get their blessing, anticipating the board would urge Arizona State to make a move. But Arizona State president Michael Crow, in a fervent effort to preserve the Pac-12, put up a good fight. Now Arizona’s plans were in doubt.

    Meanwhile, what was going on with Oregon and Washington? The latest rumor was, contrary to reports, Oregon had turned down a Big Ten offer.

    “We’re like, ‘You’ve got to be freaking kidding me,’” said Rhoades, the Baylor athletic director. “‘This thing ain’t gonna happen.’”

    Yormark couldn’t sleep that night. He kept playing it all out in his head, pondering all the possible scenarios and what it would take to bring the deal back to life.

    The Pac-12 meeting to decide on a media rights deal with Apple was scheduled for 7 a.m. PT. In the last half-hour before the call, everything changed.

    Rhoades learned the Big Ten reached an agreement with Oregon and Washington overnight. They were going. Then he got a call from his contact at Utah. Their leadership wanted to set up a meeting. While they were still on the line, Arizona called. Suddenly, they were ready to commit. He dialed up Yormark.

    “At that point I knew, OK, we’re definitely back in the game,” Yormark said.

    The dream scenario came true. The Big 12 was landing Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. The Buffaloes were already on board, but the defection of the rest of the so-called Four Corners schools went from improbable to inevitable when Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff couldn’t secure an acceptable TV deal and the Big Ten made its move.

    This yearlong pursuit began as soon as Yormark took over the conference last summer. There were countless twists and turns throughout the courtships, but the assertive new commissioner was never shy about his objective: Boost the Big 12 by any means necessary. The Athletic spoke with more than a dozen presidents, athletic directors and industry experts for the inside story of how he pulled it off.

    “Listen, in life, you’ve got to get lucky,” Yormark said. “But in some respects, you create your own luck.”

    GO DEEPER

    ‘All hell broke loose’: The chaotic final days that shook the Pac-12 and college football to their core


    When the Big 12 neared the end of its commissioner search in the summer of 2022, finalists were asked to bring something to their in-person interview: a big idea. Something original, innovative, achievable.

    “Brett couldn’t just bring one idea,” Baylor president Linda Livingstone said. “He had 10.”

    Livingstone remembers talking through a list of more than 20 candidates with TurnkeyZRG’s Len Perna early in the search. When Perna brought up Yormark, he acknowledged the 55-year-old Roc Nation COO was an outside-the-box option but impressive enough to merit a long look. Texas Tech president Lawrence Schovanec, who led the three-person search committee with Livingstone and Kansas chancellor Douglas Girod, said the Big 12 board labeled Yormark as the “high risk, high reward” finalist. But that’s what they needed.

    After losing Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC and enduring a brutal existential crisis in 2021, the leaders of the remaining Big 12 schools faced an adapt-or-die future. They sought a dealmaker to evolve their business. Yormark’s minimal experience in college athletics meant he wasn’t devoted to preserving the status quo. He says he was looking for a new challenge where a “transformative moment” was possible.

    One day after Yormark landed the job in late June 2022, USC and UCLA bolted the Pac-12 for the Big Ten. Here was his chance to disrupt. His aggressive, transparent approach challenged Big 12 colleagues right away. Everyone needed to start thinking more ambitiously.

    Yormark’s first official day on the job as successor to longtime commissioner Bob Bowlsby was Aug. 1. He couldn’t wait that long. When he declared the Big 12 was “open for business” at his media day debut, the recruitment of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah was already in the works.

    “When we started talking about membership,” Rhoades said, “it was always those four.”

    Yormark and his presidents and ADs pushed them to consider departing their destabilized league. They weren’t ready. The Pac-12 had just begun talking with ESPN and Fox about its next media rights deal. Kliavkoff fought back at Pac-12 media day, accusing the Big 12 of lobbing “grenades” to destroy his league. The night before, Yormark had texted Kliavkoff and reminded him: It’s not personal, it’s business.

    “You look at the metrics, you look at the numbers, and any way you cut and slice and dice the numbers, you come to the conclusion that no Pac-12 school is going to the Big 12,” Kliavkoff said.

    While Kliavkoff was taking shots in Las Vegas, Yormark was already thinking ahead on his next move: jumping the Pac-12 in line for a new TV deal.

    “If you’re ESPN and Fox, does it hurt you to open up with the Big 12 right now and see side-by-side what’s the better long-term commitment?” Yormark told The Athletic that day.

    Yormark got his wish. He began negotiating with ESPN and Fox in September and secured an extension with both partners through 2030-31 that pays Big 12 members $31.7 million annually, includes a pro rata clause for expansion and gets the conference back on the market before the SEC and ACC. Perhaps they were leaving money on the table with new bidders like Apple and Amazon emerging, but the conference needed financial security, stability and exposure. The board was OK with accepting a deal that was good enough. Yormark got it done by Halloween.

    The reaction on the Pac-12 side: We’ll beat that number. In hindsight, the Big 12 was fortunate to re-up with ESPN and Fox when it did, given the state of today’s media landscape. Locking in a grant of rights and getting a long-form contract executed by the end of June was critical for being taken seriously in its expansion pursuits. The deal was the catalyst for everything the Big 12 has done since.

    “When you look back on it now,” Yormark said, “it obviously was one of the most critical moments ever in the history of the conference.”

    Yormark rolled out a variety of new initiatives, including a Big 12 pro day, Rucker Park camps, international games in Mexico, enhanced championship events and business summits. He was eager to demonstrate how the Big 12 was thinking differently. He was giving the Pac-12 schools a reason to come.

    In the spring, the Pac-12 schools started calling. The conference put out a unity statement on Feb. 13, but there was no media rights deal in sight. Colorado athletic director Rick George was interested in the Big 12. For the Buffaloes, a potential return to their former conference wasn’t just about a TV contract. It was a legacy move focused on where they’re best served in the future. One aspect of a partnership that excited Yormark: He could tell Deion Sanders wanted to play and recruit in the Big 12.

    But Yormark wasn’t going to beg. He needed schools that wanted to be aligned with the Big 12 and weren’t just settling if the Pac-12 got a bad deal. “I want someone to run to us,” Yormark said. He sat down with Robbins at the men’s Final Four in Houston and told him frankly, “I’m not going to be your life preserver.”

    By early April, Yormark believed he could get Colorado. The Pac-12 pushed back its deal timeline to late spring or early summer. The Big 12 commissioner leaned on intel from his deep Rolodex of TV contacts. They were all telling him Kliavkoff had misplayed his hand. He knew the Pac-12 was in trouble.


    At the end of May, Big 12 presidents, chancellors and athletic directors flew to West Virginia for three days of meetings at The Greenbrier. Their retreat at the historic luxury resort was the first time leadership from every Big 12 school — including incoming members BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — gathered for an in-person board meeting. Together, they devised an expansion game plan.

    Colorado remained the consensus priority. Yormark had already met again with Colorado’s leaders in Chicago and told the board he was having productive talks. The timeline on when they might jump was unclear, but Yormark believed they were becoming fed up with the Pac-12 and might not wait for a TV deal.

    “We talked a lot about being patient,” said Livingstone, the Big 12’s board chair. “Brett is not a naturally patient person. He knew, in this case, that strategically the best thing to do was be patient and see how things play out.”

    The when was largely out of their hands. The Pac-12’s media rights negotiations dragged on with few leaks and no known deadline. At that point, Schovanec admits, flipping all four schools looked challenging. “We were thinking maybe two,” he said. They briefly discussed Memphis, San Diego State and other expansion candidates. San Diego State strongly preferred joining the Pac-12 and viewed the Big 12 as a backup plan. Yormark didn’t appreciate that. He did meet with Gonzaga, but those talks never got serious.

    UConn was different. It was no secret Yormark was most interested in inviting the Huskies to the Big 12 if the Pac-12 schools stuck together.

    How far did it get with UConn? Yormark traveled to Storrs for a campus visit after the Huskies’ men’s basketball national title and later had a second meeting with their leadership in New York. The commissioner saw something his peers did not: a proven brand in men’s and women’s basketball that gets the league into New York City and the East Coast. He believed Jim Mora has the football program (currently 0-4 this season) heading in the right direction. He trusted that, over time, UConn would add value.

    “I’m all about scenario management and think that’s critically important,” Yormark said. “We vetted them all out time and time again and tried to go down parallel paths with respect to how to work them.”

    Still, it was always going to be tough to build support for that addition. ESPN and Fox were willing to pay full price for Pac-12 additions. The Big 12 board wanted Power 5 schools. It meant more to them.

    There were moments when the Big 12 and Pac-12 could’ve worked together. Bowlsby flew to Montana in 2021 to visit Kliavkoff and discuss a partnership. Similar conversations between Yormark and Kliavkoff last summer didn’t go far, and both sides disagree on who initiated them. But expansion moves made by the SEC and Big Ten and the growing revenue gap between them and every other conference put these two in an uncomfortable position: Eat or be eaten.

    “I kind of looked at it and framed it as, man, we have no choice,” Rhoades said. “Right now, if you’re not trying to be aggressive, you get left behind.”

    Yormark was still feeling bullish about Colorado at Big 12 media days in July. But privately, he was starting to concede the Four Corners scenario might not happen. Maybe he’d dreamt a little too big early in his tenure.

    At Pac-12 media day on July 21, Kliavkoff declared he wasn’t concerned about losing members and vowed his CEO Group’s patience would soon pay off. “The longer we wait for the media deal, the better our options get,” he said. But the signs were hard to miss. Sanders did not travel to Las Vegas. Rick George ducked reporters to catch a flight. Five days later, Colorado regents met to discuss Big 12 membership. They approved a move the following day.

    “Rick is a straight shooter, which I like,” Yormark said. “He did his due diligence and I just respect the fact he made a very bold decision. And the decision was he wasn’t going to wait. He saw something he liked and wanted to be a part of it. I really, really respect that.”

    In August, Yormark finally visited campus and instantly hit it off with Coach Prime over lunch. What the new head coach is doing for Colorado is precisely what Yormark envisions for the Big 12: modernizing the brand to make it younger, more creative, more culturally relevant.

    Next up for the Big 12? Arizona. On the afternoon Colorado’s board met to set their departure in motion, Robbins was about to board a flight. He was traveling to London for an event for NASA’s UArizona-led OSIRIS-REx, the first U.S. mission to collect a sample from an asteroid.

    When he learned the Buffaloes were on their way out, Robbins replied, “No kidding? Wow. Well … that’s news.”



    Just over a month after announcing its Big 12 return, Colorado knocked off future conference foe TCU in its season opener. (Tim Heitman / USA Today)

    One week later, Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt was sitting in the Admirals Club at DFW International Airport on a Thursday afternoon. He and his wife were heading to Canton, Ohio, for Zach Thomas’ induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But first, he joined another emergency Big 12 meeting.

    “At one point, my wife looked at me and said, ‘You better not say too much. You know there are people around you who could be listening,’” Hocutt said.

    Yormark invited ADs and board members on the call to share good news: Arizona requested Big 12 membership. It was time for a vote. The lingering question was whether the Big 12 would go to 14 members or try for 16. One AD reminded the group of a hard truth: The Pac-12 had an opportunity to put the Big 12 out of business two years ago. Because they didn’t, they were now incredibly vulnerable. Years from now, will the Big 12 be similarly vulnerable and regretting a squandered opportunity?

    In the summer of 2021, the Pac-12 could’ve easily swiped four Big 12 schools. Its expansion committee looked into Baylor, Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas Tech. At the time, had the Pac-12 made an offer, sources at those schools say they absolutely would’ve accepted that lifeline.

    But it never came close to happening. The Pac-12 CEO Group passed on expansion, preferring an alliance with the ACC and Big Ten. Robbins wishes they’d taken all eight remaining Big 12 schools and formed the Pac-20, but he found few supporters for that concept. He even suggested the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 all merge together.

    “It was very clear the majority of the people in that room weren’t even going to entertain it,” Robbins said. “Never got to a vote or anything. I think that’s sad.”

    Interestingly, though, the efforts by Big 12 presidents, chancellors and athletic directors to try to earn an invite helped establish contact and relationships with their Pac-12 counterparts. Now that the tables had turned, Yormark’s board and ADs were invaluable in these recruitments. These deals aren’t easy to pull off. There are several stakeholders to win over on each campus and lots of steps and protocols. But Yormark was determined to finish the job.

    “When you’re in these roles, it’s an obsession,” Schovanec said. “Brett, I think, sometimes is almost intoxicated by the prospect of the deal. He loves it. He loves playing in that arena. That’s just who he is.”

    “I want to win,” Yormark said. “That’s why we all wake up every morning, right?”

    Nobody wanted to be the straw that broke the Pac-12’s back. Colorado leaving was damaging but did not guarantee extinction. The Big Ten did not want to be out in front of this. Yormark knew this was weighing heavily on Robbins, too. Arizona was most likely to defect, but would it be bold enough to act alone? Some inside the Big 12 believed the Wildcats needed Arizona State or Utah to go with them. On the Thursday call, Yormark suggested giving the other two schools a deadline. No more waiting around.

    Colorado’s exit had sped up the timeline. Kliavkoff presented the much-anticipated Apple offer, a five-year deal with an annual base rate of $23 million per school, in an Aug. 1 meeting. Robbins was concerned when he learned the terms and did the math. If the Pac-12 has 1.8 million living alumni, as he calculated, then how achievable is 3-5 million subscribers paying $100 a year? “I think it would’ve been difficult, certainly in the early years,” Robbins said. He’d always expected more than one offer to be presented, but a second one fell through late.

    “Most of us were somewhat disappointed,” Robbins said.

    Soon after the meeting, Robbins made overtures about Big 12 membership to keep that door open. By the end of the Thursday night board meeting with Crow, Arizona and Arizona State were going to stick together.

    “We are sisters, rivals with each other, jealous from time to time of each other. We have all of the things that go on in real families,” Crow said in a podcast interview. “This is like a real family. You love each other, you argue with each other, you stomp out sometimes, but we had decided as a family that we were not separating.”

    Robbins went into Friday ready to accept the Apple deal despite his reservations. Yormark didn’t get a call about how the board meeting went, which wasn’t a good sign. “I thought, ‘OK, we might be losing this,’” he said. Big 12 leadership would see how the Pac-12 meeting played out, knowing they might need to regroup and restart the UConn discussion.

    At around 6:55 a.m. PT, Robbins said, he received a call from Oregon president John Karl Scholz. The Ducks were Big Ten-bound.

    “It was pretty much over,” Robbins said.

    In an instant, the three schools had to change their tune. Robbins had been in constant conversation with Crow and Utah president Taylor Randall leading up to that morning. Now they needed to hustle to secure their new home.

    Utah AD Mark Harlan had said all the right things publicly about staying in the Pac-12, including at the July media day. “Every president in the Pac-12, including Washington and Oregon, was trying to hold this whole thing together,” Randall said. Once the Apple offer was known, though, Utes coaches were uneasy. They questioned what games on Apple would do for their visibility, relevance and recruiting.

    Everyone in the Pac-12 had to get to a certain comfort level with the deal, Randall said, and they couldn’t get the whole group there. Now that the conference was crumbling, he and Harlan quickly got on a call with Yormark and the Big 12 executive committee and agreed to join.

    Arizona State had always been the least engaged of the four. Crow and AD Ray Anderson were adamant about staying in the Pac-12 and did not express interest in the months leading up to Friday morning. Crow genuinely liked the Apple offer. After doing all he could to preserve his league, he now needed to smooth things over with Yormark. He and the commissioner had a 10:30 a.m. PT Zoom meeting that convinced Yormark they could move forward together.

    “He told me, ‘Brett, you can’t penalize me for being loyal to the Pac-12. Because as loyal as I was to the Pac-12, I’m gonna be that loyal to you,’” Yormark said. “That really resonated with me. It was heartfelt.”

    Yormark held one more board meeting to officially accept three new members. The addition of Colorado had been feted with a Michael Jordan-inspired “They’re back” press release. But this fateful Friday had brought seismic change to college athletics. This time, a standard announcement was the right move.

    “It wasn’t a spike-the-ball-in-the-end-zone moment,” Rhoades said.



    Having been in the Pac-12’s position in recent years, many Big 12 admins could empathize with members of the conference they were helping break apart. (James Snook / USA Today)

    For Kansas State’s Gene Taylor, the realization hit when he walked in the room.

    The athletic directors of the new Big 12 met for the first time in Dallas on Aug. 17. Despite dedicating an entire year to pursuing this possibility, it still felt jarring to witness all 16 of these leaders getting together.

    “I said to myself, ‘We’re gonna need a bigger boat,’” Taylor said. “You know these guys and you’re sitting in a room with them talking about the conference and you’re kinda shaking your head like, ‘Is this real? Is this really happening?’”

    More importantly, can all these ADs, presidents and chancellors get along and make this work? The Big 12’s expansion move was a team effort from start to finish, supported by tight-knit and likeminded stakeholders. They aimed to grow the conference without messing up that alignment. For Yormark, everything felt right in the first AD meeting.

    “It was very natural,” Yormark said. “It was almost like it was meant to be. It was a wonderful moment, I think, for everyone in the room to exhale and feel good about what we had done.”

    go-deeper

    GO DEEPER

    ‘All hell broke loose’: The chaotic final days that shook the Pac-12 and college football to their core

    This much is also clear: Nobody in the Big 12 feels good about the demise of the Pac-12. Livingstone, the Big 12 board chair, said she feels a sense of sorrow about how this all unfolded. “I think we all anticipated that the Pac-12 would reach some kind of a media agreement,” she said. So, no, she never expected the present-day outcome of a Pac-2.

    Robbins absolutely loved the Conference of Champions. It’s heartbreaking to him to think about this iconic league, with more than 100 years of history, possibly going away — especially as he watches a potentially all-time great Pac-12 football season play out this fall.

    “We saved our best for last,” Robbins said. “We’ve just got to make the best of what is a sad situation. It’s like the Semisonic song says: Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.”

    Taylor couldn’t be more sympathetic to Oregon State and Washington State. He could’ve been the one left behind in 2021. When everyone was talking about the Big 12 falling apart that summer, he points out, Kansas State and Iowa State were talked about the least. There was nothing he could do.

    “It’s a horrible, horrible feeling,” Taylor said. “I hope they get every dollar they can possibly get that remains in the Pac-12.”

    He and his peers praise Bowlsby for pulling them out of the tailspin. Once the eight remaining schools agreed to stick together, Bowlsby convinced them to quickly add the four best available expansion candidates in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. They needed to change the narrative. They didn’t want people talking about the Big 12 like a damaged product on the brink of disaster throughout that 2021 season. They stabilized and survived.

    Now they’re trying to thrive. Yormark has declared that, among Power 5 leagues, the Big 12 is now “cemented at No. 3 and moving up.” The best basketball conference in America is about to get better. TCU broke through as the first Big 12 team to reach the College Football Playoff national title game. But the commissioner describes the opportunity ahead in different terms. His conference is now in four time zones and 10 states. There are 90 million people in its footprint.

    “Our profile and our reach has dramatically changed in a very short period of time,” Yormark said. “But I think we’re ready for it.”

    The commissioner has been on the road every weekend this fall to get a good look at these new showdowns: Colorado-TCU, Utah-Baylor, TCU-Houston. Taylor joked that Yormark might start to get bored if they don’t continue to expand, but 16 is plenty for now.

    “He’s just getting started,” Hocutt said. “The ideas that Brett continues to bring to our conversations and our attention are just incredible. No other commissioner is thinking as proactively as he is.”

    Closing the deal with the four Pac-12 schools they’d long coveted came down to strategy, persistence, relationships, timing and lots of luck. It was a milestone moment for the Big 12, hardly a sure thing but ultimately hard-earned.

    “Now the fun part starts,” Yormark said.

    (Top illustration: John Bradford for The Athletic; Photos: Alex Goodlett, Stephen Lam / Getty Images)

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  • The Athletic 133: How much does Ohio State jump and Notre Dame fall?

    The Athletic 133: How much does Ohio State jump and Notre Dame fall?

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    Sign up for the Until Saturday newsletter | Jayna Bardahl and The Athletic’s college football staff deliver expert analysis on the biggest CFB stories five days per week. Get it sent to your inbox.


    We entered this much-hyped college football weekend ready to learn about a lot of teams. Some flailed in the spotlight while others came through. But the biggest lesson we learned is that Florida State is truly back to being one of the best teams in the country. After an overtime win at Clemson, the Seminoles move up to No. 2 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 133.

    Yes, it was ugly early. Yes, Clemson missed a chip-shot field goal late. But the fact those things happened highlighted how Clemson has fallen and how the Seminoles have risen to take that place, ending a seven-game losing streak in the rivalry. Clemson didn’t have a Keon Coleman-esque player who made a play when the team needed it most. Instead, it missed a field goal with a late-addition kicker and made an ill-advised wide receiver screen throw on third-and-1 in overtime.

    Now Florida State sits at 4-0 with a blowout victory against LSU and a win at Clemson. The Seminoles have an argument to be No. 1. They have some of the best wins. They only sit at No. 2 for me because they needed to escape Boston College last week. Georgia doesn’t have the big wins but it also hasn’t been in real danger.

    On this exact date two years ago, Florida State dropped to 0-4 after a loss to Louisville, two weeks after a loss to FCS Jacksonville State. FSU couldn’t afford to buy out another coach in less than two years. It had to let Mike Norvell figure it out. Now it sits here as a national championship contender. The Seminoles have figured it out. It’s a lesson in patience, roster building and believing in the people you have.

    Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 133.

    1-10

    Quite a bit of change in this group. FSU jumps Texas because it has two top-level wins. Ohio State moves up to No. 4 after beating Notre Dame with one second to play. Washington continues to wreck everyone and look like the best team in the country, but it won’t play a top-level opponent until Oregon on Oct. 14.

    Utah beat UCLA to move to 4-0 and Cam Rising hasn’t even played yet, so look out for the Utes. Penn State overwhelmed Iowa 31-0 and slides up as well. Michigan slips to No. 8 not just because the Wolverines haven’t played anyone noteworthy, but because they haven’t been all that impressive, either. They are 0-3-1 against the spread, and that 31-7 win against Rutgers on Saturday was a 10-point game deep into the third quarter. I don’t doubt the talent on Michigan. We just haven’t seen it yet like we have with Washington. When we do, the rankings will react to it. Is this contradictory to the Georgia ranking? Maybe. But the two-time defending national champions get that benefit of the doubt for now. All Michigan has to do is win its games and it’ll be fine.

    USC battled into the fourth quarter with an Arizona State team that Fresno State shut out last week, so the Trojans tumble. Oregon moves into the top 10 after a 42-6 win against Colorado, bringing the Buffs back down to earth.

    GO DEEPER

    Auerbach’s Top 10: A shakeup at the top for early-season resume-builders

    11-25

    Notre Dame only falls to No. 11, since the Irish were a few inches away from beating Ohio State. LSU needed a last-second field goal to beat Arkansas and stays at No. 12. Alabama got through a brutal first half against Ole Miss to win 24-10 and sort of get back on track, moving up to No. 15. Washington State beat Oregon State 38-35 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score, and Wazzu moves up to No. 16.

    Kansas is 4-0 for the second consecutive year and moves into the top 25 after beating BYU 38-27. Kansas State beat UCF 44-31 and also moves into the top 25. TCU looks like the TCU we expected this season after a 34-17 win against SMU, and Colorado hangs in the top 25 for now because of that victory over TCU.

    go-deeper

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    Sampson: Notre Dame’s coaches got in the players’ way against Ohio State

    26-50

    Maryland is quietly 4-0 after taking care of business at Michigan State and is No. 26. UCLA really struggled at Utah, but it was just a 14-7 final score, so the Bruins only drop to No. 27. Ole Miss and Clemson also fall out of the top 25 after their losses.

    Kentucky, at No. 33, handled itself against Vanderbilt and hosts Florida this upcoming weekend for a big matchup. Syracuse is 4-0 and No. 36 after beating Army and finishes undefeated in nonconference play for the first time since the Orange joined a conference in 1991. Fresno State is also 4-0 after taking care of Kent State and inches up to No. 37.

    Iowa and Auburn drop into the 40s after ugly offensive performances against Penn State and Texas A&M, respectively. No. 46 James Madison held on to beat Utah State, No. 47 Wyoming returned a block field goal in the final minutes to beat Appalachian State, and West Virginia beat Texas Tech to jump into the top 50.

    go-deeper

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    Dochterman: Wow, Iowa makes offensive football look hard

    51-75

    No. 51 Ohio continues to do what it needs to and beat Bowling Green 38-7. This team might be undefeated if Kurtis Rourke didn’t get hurt in the opener against San Diego State. Georgia Tech jumps up to No. 53 after a comfortable 30-16 win at Wake Forest. Fellow Atlanta resident Georgia State is 4-0 after a 30-17 win at Coastal Carolina to put the Sun Belt on notice and move up to No. 54. Marshall beat Virginia Tech 24-17 and looked like the better team from the start, and the Herd make a big jump to No. 55 because of it.

    Texas Tech lost to West Virginia and lost quarterback Tyler Shough to a broken fibula. A Big 12 dark horse has turned downward very fast, down to No. 60. Rutgers played Michigan tough for more than a half and the Scarlet Knights do look improved, inching up to No. 57. USF seems to have something under Alex Golesh, after a 42-29 win against Rice, and moves up to No. 69. Troy held on to beat Western Kentucky 27-24 and moves to No. 58. Boise State beat San Diego State 34-31 for a big Mountain West road win to move up to No. 64.

    go-deeper

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    Ten questions about the AP Top 25: When will Georgia’s No. 1 reign end? Who will be next?

    76-100

    Texas State continues to win but slip a little because Baylor continues to fall, and because of Texas State’s loss to UTSA. South Alabama, one week after blowing out Oklahoma State, lost 34-30 to Central Michigan in a stunner and dropped to No. 83. UNLV is 3-1 under Barry Odom after a comfortable 45-28 win against UTEP, moving up to No. 85.

    Minnesota slides dramatically down these rankings to No. 90 after blowing a 31-10 fourth-quarter lead and losing to Northwestern in overtime. Indiana needed a missed field goal and four overtimes to escape Akron, so the Hoosiers drop to No. 91. Jacksonville State and RichRod are 3-1 and move up to No. 94 after a 21-0 thumping of Eastern Michigan. Stanford played Arizona close but lost 21-20, dropping to No. 96. Colorado State beat Middle Tennessee 31-23 and moves into the top 100.

    go-deeper

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    Mandel’s Final Thoughts: College football or WWE? Lessons from an angry Week 4

    101-133

    Virginia Tech and Virginia drop to this group. The Hokies are 1-3 after a loss to Marshall. The fact they were underdogs to begin with says a lot. Virginia rallied but lost to NC State on a last-second field goal to remain winless.

    Hawaii continues to show improvement, beating New Mexico State at home to move up to No. 115. UMass continues to fall since beating NMSU in Week 0, losing to New Mexico in overtime and dropping to No. 119. Arkansas State beat Southern Miss for Butch Jones’ first Sun Belt win over a team that isn’t ULM and moves up to No. 123. That’s a win that could be a needed sign of progress this year.

    UConn lost 41-7 to Duke and appears to have taken a massive step back this year, falling to No. 128. Sam Houston finally scored a touchdown, but has just 10 points through three games, so the Bearkats drop to No. 132. Buffalo remains at the bottom after a 45-38 loss to Louisiana.

    (Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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