Tag: wesh long-range forecast

SET FOR JUST AFTER 10:00, AND TONIGHT WE ARE TRACKING THE TROPICS. HURRICANE MELISSA IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT BARRELS TOWARD JAMAICA. IT’S CURRENTLY A CATEGORY THREE STORM, BUT IT COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE, AND THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE MOST DEVASTATING HURRICANES TO HIT JAMAICA IN YEARS. PEOPLE IN JAMAICA HAVE BEEN WARNED THAT THEY NEED TO PREPARE NOW AND HUNKER DOWN. THIS VIDEO, TAKEN IN KINGSTON, SHOWS WINDOWS BOARDED UP IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STORM. AND WE ARE TAKING YOU NOW TO A LIVE LOOK AT KINGSTON. YOU CAN SEE THERE THE GROUND ALREADY WET FROM THE OUTER BANDS AND MARQUISE. WHEN WE TALK ABOUT A CATEGORY FIVE STORM, JUST TO REMIND THE PUBLIC, HURRICANE ANDREW THAT HIT HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN 1992, I BELIEVE WAS A CAT FIVE, AND THAT REALLY CHANGED EVERYTHING. THAT’S HOW STRONG THIS STORM COULD BE. IT’S RARE THAT WE SEE CATEGORY FIVES MAKE LANDFALL, BUT WHEN THEY DO, IT’S A HAYMAKER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, RIGHT. WE’RE TALKING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR IMMENSE FLOODING, POWER OUTAGES THAT COULD BE WIDESPREAD. ON TOP OF THAT, WITHIN THESE OUTER BANDS, YOU CAN OFTEN FIND SOME TORNADIC SPIN UPS AS WELL. SO ALL IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE TABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. BUT SPECIFICALLY, WE’RE LOOKING AT JAMAICA AS YOU GUYS ARE UNDER THAT HURRICANE WARNING. IT’S BEEN QUITE A WHILE SINCE YOU SAW A MAJOR HURRICANE MAKE LANDFALL. THE LAST ONE THAT WAS HURRICANE GILBERT. I ALLUDED TO THIS EARLIER IN THE SHOW BACK IN 1988. SO LESS THAN 40 YEARS AGO, WHEN ADJUSTED FOR 2025, IT WAS IT CAUSED $10 BILLION WORTH OF DAMAGE. AND SINCE THEN, WELL, THE COUNTRY, THEY’VE GROWN IN SIZE BY ABOUT 500,000 PEOPLE. RIGHT ON TOP OF THAT, INFRASTRUCTURE HAS CHANGED AS WELL. BUT THIS STORM COULD POTENTIALLY BE JUST AS BIG AS THE ONE THEY HAD PREVIOUSLY. RIGHT. TAKING A LOOK AT THE EYE WALL, WE SEE THAT BECOMING MUCH MORE DEFINED NOW TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115MPH. THE STORM’S MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS THE WEST AT 30MPH CONDITIONS. SO IT’S REALLY JUST INCHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AND KEEP IN MIND, THE SLOWER IT MOVES, THE MORE TIME IT’S GOING TO HAVE TO DRAW IN TO THESE VERY DEEP, WARM WATERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AND THE MORE TIME IT WILL HAVE TO DUMP DOWN THE RAIN ACROSS JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO THAT’S WHAT WE’RE WATCHING OUT FOR. THIS STORM POTENTIALLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FIVE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. HOW WARM IS THE WATER? WELL, TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 86 AND 88 DEGREES. SOME OF THE WARMEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GLOBE. WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE THIS STORM BECOMING A CATEGORY FIVE BY MONDAY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY, MAKING LANDFALL RIGHT IN THE HEART OF JAMAICA. THEY’RE OUR SPAGHETTI PLOTS ARE FAIRLY TIGHT KNIT. WE SEE THAT RECURVE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THE EAST, PLACING THIS OVER CUBA AS WE MOVE ACROSS THE WORKWEEK, LIKELY DOWNGRADING, THOUGH, FROM A CATEGORY FIVE OVER JAMAICA, POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO JUST BEFORE LANDFALL HERE IN CUBA. REGARDLESS, THOUGH, SOUTHEASTERN CUBA, YOU GUYS WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF THOSE STRONG HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND ALSO RAINFALL, OFTEN KINGSTON WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE CHANCES FOR RAIN BETWEEN 18 AND 24IN. NOW THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT MODEL OUTCOMES IN WHICH MELISSA CAN TAKE. THE MOST LIKELY IS THIS NORTH AND EASTERLY PATH, BUT IF IT DOES INTENSIFY QUICKER, WE COULD SEE IT CURVE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THE EAST A LITTLE BIT FASTER. IT’S GOING TO KEEP US SAFE AS THIS NEXT COLD FRONT HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. SO GREAT NEWS FOR US THERE. REGARDLESS THOUGH, THIS STORM IS GOING TO MAKE NOT ONE BUT TWO LANDFALLS IN JAMAICA AND ACROSS CUBA, LIKELY BEFORE IT GETS TO CUBA AS A CATEGORY THREE OR CATEGORY TWO. HERE, BACK AT HOME, TEMPERATURES ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S. AS WE SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT, BUT IT IS A BREEZY EVENING, WINDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST AND WE HAVE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 24 AND 30MPH. THAT’S GOING TO KEEP YOUR RIP CURRENT RISK ALIVE. AND ALSO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF YOUR WEEKEND, WHICH DOES INCLUDE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TOMORROW, WE’LL CARRY THAT CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO THE START OF YOUR WORKWEEK AS WELL. A 60% COVERAGE ON MONDAY, 30% COVERAGE TUESDAY. SUNSHINE RETURNS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, THOUGH, A