Tag: Weather Stories

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Tornadoes and thunderstorms
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It’s Severe Weather Awareness Week across the state of Florida. Each day this week, Spectrum News will bring you tips you need, in order to face the impacts Florida may bring this spring and summer.

On Wednesday, we’ll focus in on severe thunderstorms and the threats they bring, including strong winds, hail and tornadoes.
What You Need To Know

Severe weather can strike any time of the year across Florida

Outlooks provide a heads up to which day severe storms could develop

Watches and warnings are issued the day of an event

Tornadoes are rated based on the amount of damage they produce
Severe weather is a common occurrence in Florida, especially when our wet season kicks in during late spring and summer months.

In order to keep yourself safe from the risks, we’ll discuss how we forecast the threat of severe storms across the Central Florida region.

Understanding terminology

First and foremost, you need to familiarize yourself with three terms: outlook, watch and warning. These terms are key to understanding your risk of severe weather, no matter where you are across the state.

Severe weather outlooks

An outlook is used to provide a heads up that severe storms could be in the forecast on that given date. While outlooks are issued the day of a severe weather event, they can be issued as far as eight days in advance.

Outlooks provide the potential and probability of severe storms within a given area. You’ll want to check back frequently as outlooks change, sometimes two or three times a day.

Even though they can come in a variety of ways, outlooks rank the risk of severe weather from low to high on a scale of 1 to 5. Here’s what each outlook level means:
- Marginal Risk (level 1) – This risk is the most frequent one issued in Florida- and occurs the most nationwide. A marginal risk means that the potential of severe weather is minimal, at best. Some ingredients exist for strong storms to develop, but it’s usually not the best environment for a larger-scale severe weather outbreak. On average, you’ll typically see between one or two severe weather warnings issued in areas where a marginal risk is issued.
- Slight Risk (Level 2) – A slight risk is a step up from marginal, and is issued when the atmosphere is a bit more primed for severe storms to develop. This level of risk is still frequently issued across the state of Florida, especially when potent low pressure systems cross the state in the winter, or during tropical systems. Slight risk days typically bring a tornado risk with them and are capable of producing damaging winds. You’ll usually find at least two to four warnings issued on these days.
- Enhanced Risk (Level 3) – An enhanced risk is issued when numerous severe storms are possible across a region on a given day. These days tend to feature all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging winds and even large hail. Enhanced risks aren’t too common across Florida, mainly because we lack the large storm systems that are associated with these types of days. However, they have been issued before. The most recent one occurring in April 2023, when very large hail fell all across Central Florida.
- Moderate Risk (Level 4) – A moderate risk of severe weather is the second-highest risk level you can have across the state and usually leads to a severe weather outbreak over an area. These are extremely uncommon across Central Florida, with the last one occurring on Jan. 22, 2017. Areas under this risk level will likely see strong storms generate wind gusts over 60 mph and very large hail. Numerous tornadoes are also possible, which could be strong, ranking as an EF-2 or higher.
- High Risk (Level 5) – At the top of the scale, a high risk of severe weather is the rarest risk level issued nationwide, let alone Florida. In fact, you can go years between one high-risk day before seeing the next. The last high-risk that was issued in Central Florida was back in 2017. These are only issued on days where violent tornadoes or tornado outbreaks are expected to occur. The likelihood of long-distance wind damage events, known as derechos, could also put an area under a high risk.
Watches and warnings

A watch is a term seen most likely on a day where severe weather could develop. When you hear a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or a Tornado Watch has been issued for your area, it indicates that atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of each, respectively.

Once a watch is issued, severe weather will likely develop within the coming hours. So, take heed if one is issued- they are there to alert you to be ready to take action later on in the day.

Finally, a warning is a term that associated when severe weather is occurring. Unlike a watch, which warns you of the potential of severe storms and/or tornadoes within the coming hours, a warning indicates that severe weather has developed and is happening currently.

Warnings are issued to alert those in the way of a dangerous storm to take action to protect life and property. They can come in several fashions, including Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, Flash Flood Warnings and Tornado Warnings.

The easiest way to describe the differences between watches and warnings is by comparing them to tacos.

Think of it this way – you’re about to make tacos for dinner. You have all the ingredients, but you haven’t assembled a taco yet. This would be your watch phase. You have everything you need to make a taco, you just haven’t made it yet.

The warning phase will occur once you assemble all your ingredients together and actually make your taco.

Severe storm safety

In Central Florida, our severe weather events are largely due to late-day sea breezes during the spring and summer. As boundaries collide, storms can become strong, creating gusty winds, small hail and even brief tornadoes.

But what makes a thunderstorm severe and how you can prepare before one develops?

If any storm is producing one of those three criteria, it becomes a severe thunderstorm and will get a warning.

If a storm is near that criteria, but doesn’t meet it, a special weather statement may be issued. The purpose for this is to alert the public that an approaching storm nearby could strengthen to severe limits.

If a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is ever issued for your area, follow these tips to keep you and your family safe:
- Seek shelter inside a sturdy structure
- Stay away from doors and windows
- Stay off electrical devices like computers or corded phones
- Stay inside until the storm passes
Tornado safety

If a storm is producing a tornado, or Doppler radar indicates that a tornadic storm is possible in the near term, a Tornado Warning will be issued. In the case you’re under a Tornado Warning, here are some tips to follow:
- Seek shelter on the lower level of a sturdy building or home
- Put as many walls between you and the outside world as possible
- Protect your head with a helmet or other materials around you.
- If in a mobile home, leave and seek a safer shelter
Tornadoes are ranked on a scale from EF-0 to EF-5, with EF-5 being the most damaging. Although tornadoes are typically not confirmed and rated until a day or two after the event takes place.

With that, it is important to treat every Tornado Warning seriously. Here’s the tornado scale with a bit more detail:
- EF-0 Tornado: With estimated winds of 65 to 85 mph, these tornadoes are generally short-lived and produce only minor damage. They can peel off the surface of some roofs, while possibly damaging some gutters or siding. Shallow trees could be knocked over and branches can be broken.
- EF-1 Tornado: With estimated winds of 86 to 110 mph, these tornadoes are a bit stronger and can last for several minutes. These tornadoes are capable of moderate damage and can strip roofs off well-constructed homes. Mobile homes can be overturned or damaged and windows could fail and break.
- EF-2 Tornado: With estimated winds of 111 to 135 mph, these tornadoes are the first that are classified under the “strong” category. Well-constructed homes can find significant damage, including entire roofs being taken off the home. Some foundations may shift on other homes. Mobile homes are likely to be destroyed, while large trees can be completely uprooted.
- EF-3 Tornado: With estimated winds of 136 to 165 mph, these strong tornadoes produce severe damage to a region. Well-constructed homes can be totally destroyed. Cars and trucks can be crushed and trains can be overturned. Trees can be debarked by the winds of these tornadoes.
- EF-4 Tornado: With estimated winds of 166 to 200 mph, these tornadoes produce devastating damage to an area. EF-4 tornadoes are the last tornados on the scale to fall into the “strong tornado” category. Well-constructed homes, businesses and towers can suffer complete damage, while cars can be tossed into the air for several miles. Debris from these tornadoes can become deadly projectiles.
- EF-5 Tornado: With estimated winds in excess of 200 mph, these tornadoes are considered violent and can change the landscape of a region forever. Homes situated in the path of an EF-5 tornado are reduced to concrete slabs. Trees are gone and vehicles, including trucks, are usually reduced to scrap metal. High-rise buildings can find significant structural deformation.
Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 7, 2024
Tampa ask a met: Warmer weather returns

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Welcome to ‘Ask a Meteorologist,’ a weekly chat that discusses a new weather topic every week.

Cooler temperatures have been lingering around recently, but warmer air will return.

Bay News 9 meteorologists answer your questions about what to expect this weekend and next week.

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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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February 5, 2024
Severe Weather Awareness Week: Lightning safety
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It’s Severe Weather Awareness Week across the state of Florida, and each day, Spectrum News will break down a different hazard you could face this year.

On Monday, we’ll the focus on lightning and how you can stay safe during afternoon and evening storms during the spring and summer.
What You Need To Know

Florida tops the charts for seeing the most lightning deaths in the nation

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area sees the highest amount of lightning strikes per square mile out of all Florida cities

Lightning can strike up to 12 miles outside the nearest storm cell.

Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors
Floridians are no stranger to lightning strikes. During the summer, strikes across the Sunshine state can eclipse 1,000 bolts in just a span of 15 minutes. But how does lightning form and why is it so prevalent across the state compared to other parts of the nation?

How lightning forms

To understand how lightning forms, you first have to go up into the atmosphere, thousands of feet above our head.

As you ascend 30,000 to 40,000 feet up into the sky, the temperature drops well below freezing. As the temperature falls, water vapor in the surrounding clouds begins to transition from a gas to a solid, creating ice crystals in the cloud.

This process is called deposition.

As the ice crystals continue to form in the cloud, they begin to accumulate on water droplets that drop below freezing, known as a super-cooled water droplet. That’s just a fancy term for any liquid droplet that remains in a liquid state under 32 degrees.

These supercooled droplets eventually reach a key stage in their growth where the ice crystals and the liquid droplets want to separate. The ice crystals move toward the top of the cloud, carrying a positive electric charge with them.

Meanwhile, the water droplets and any hailstones that develop head toward the bottom of the cloud, obtaining a negative charge.

Eventually, there comes a time when the negative charges within the base of the cloud become too great to stay put. As a result, these negative charges rush to meet the positive charges in order to dispel energy. This can happen in one of two ways.

The first is when negative charges surge upward, connecting with the positive charges toward the top of the cloud. If this happens, lightning strikes within the cloud- something meteorologists call cloud-to-cloud lightning. These strikes never reach the ground and remain in the sky between the clouds.

In the second scenario, the negative charges surge downward to meet positive charges racing up from the ground. If a connection is made between the ground and the base of the cloud, a lightning flash occurs. This is called cloud-to-ground lightning, or CG lightning.

(Getty Images)

Lightning is hotter than anything we have on Earth and is even hotter than the surface of the sun. That excessive heat causes the air to expand rapidly and violently when a lightning flash is created, resulting in what we hear as thunder.

Surrounded by water on three sides of the state, Florida’s unique environment helps to keep us supplied with plenty of water vapor throughout much of the year- a key ingredient in lightning strikes.

This is one of the major reasons Florida has more lightning strikes than anywhere else. The abundance of water vapor, and the occasional cool air aloft from passing storms, help to create excessive lightning strikes across the state.

How to avoid becoming a statistic

While it’s still uncommon to be struck by lighting, your odds greatly depend on where you live.

Florida and Texas are two of the nation’s most deadly states when it comes to lightning fatalities because of the unique environment they share. Both receive ample moisture from the Atlantic Ocean and/or Gulf of Mexico, increasing their odds for more strikes.

Other places like North Dakota or Wisconsin, average less strikes per square mile due to the lack of consistent ingredients for lightning. Instead, their lightning strikes are more common with well-developed storms systems that must carry that suitable environment with it.

(Getty Images)

If you follow basic safety procedures and head indoors when lightning strikes, your odds of being struck are reduced to near zero. But if you remain outside or perform unsafe activities during lightning storm nearby, your odds of being struck increase significantly.

Let’s put this into perspective.

In 2020, the U.S. population was estimated to be roughly 331 million. While the number of average deaths attributed to lightning during any given year is only 25, the number of injuries per year rises to only 225.

That means your odds of being struck by lightning any given year is 1 in 1.3 million. Those odds decrease to 1 in 16,550 when we look at being struck at anytime in your lifetime.

So what should you do if lightning strikes near your location?

Well, you want to seek shelter inside a sturdy structure immediately. Try to avoid structures without walls, like outdoor patios or picnic areas. While these structures provide some protection, the lack of walls still keeps you at a risk of being struck by a certain kind of lightning, like side flashes or ground current strikes.

If you are unable to head into a sturdy, enclosed structure like a well-constructed home, follow these tips:
- Get away from large open fields. Avoid the crests of hills and ridges.
- Avoid standing near large objects like trees, power poles or towers.
- Stay out of the water.
- If located around trees, get as low to the ground as possible by crouching.
- If camping, look to stay in valleys and other low-lying areas.
If you’re inside a sturdy building, follow these tips to keep you safe:
- Avoid taking showers. If a house is struck, internal piping is the first line of conduction.
- Avoid windows and doors. These can also become conductors if a house is struck.
- Do not lay on concrete walls or floors.
- Do not use any electric equipment except for remote controls.
- Stay off corded devices like telephones or computers connected by ethernet cords.
Since 2011, Florida continues to lead the nation, with 61 deaths statewide due to lighting. The state averages the most strikes per year, which correlates to why that number is so high.

On top of that, Florida sees more lighting per square mile than anywhere else in the nation. Hence, this is why your Weather Experts say “When thunder roars, go indoors!”

Remember, lightning can strike as far out as 30 miles from the nearest storm, with the most strikes occurring within a 12-mile radius. Just because it isn’t raining overhead doesn’t mean you’re not at risk. Always head indoors once thunder is heard.

On Tuesday, your Weather Experts will talk about the dangers of Florida’s coast, including rip currents and marine hazards.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 5, 2024
Moon mountain named in honor of Melba Mouton
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Few humans can say they were a part of the mission that allowed astronauts to land on the moon in 1969. Only the prestigious can claim they have a mountain in their name – not on earth, but on the moon.

Melba Roy Mouton is now one of the handful of scientists and mathematicians that do.
What You Need To Know

Melba Mouton was an accomplished Black mathematician and computer programmer for NASA from 1959 to 1973

Despite being a minority, her strong leadership skills and willpower allowed her to excel in a groundbreaking career

One of Mouton’s biggest successes includes her contributions to the Apollo 11 Moon landing

NASA recently named a mountain on the moon in honor of her
While Melba Mouton was not one of the “hidden figures” unveiled and featured for their success at NASA during the late 1950s and 1960s, her story is no different. As a Black female working in a prominently male-dominated field, she too faced the brutal reality of discrimination.

Yet, her relentless determination and curiosity allowed her to overcome obstacles. All of which lead her to become a prominent leader as a mathematician and computer programmer in the Space Race era.

The life of Melba Mouton

Melba Mouton was born in the late 1920s and spent much of her childhood in Virginia during the difficult times of the Great Depression and Word War II. Despite this, she still pursued her passion for math.

She attended the historically Black college, Howard University, earning both a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in mathematics.

Mouton began her NASA career at the Goddard Space Flight Center in 1959. By the early 1960s, she worked as a lead computer programmer for the Mission and Trajectory Analysis Division’s Program Systems Branch, to compute where spacecraft were in orbit and their trajectories.

This eventually put her as the head mathematician, helping to track the Echo 1 and 2 satellites.

(Photo by NASA)

NASA awarded Mouton the Apollo Achievement Award for all of her contributions toward the famed Apollo 11 mission, that allowed astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin to first step foot on the moon (while third crewmember Michael Collins piloted the command module).

Ending her career at NASA as the Assistant Chief of Research Programs for the agency’s Trajectory and Geodynamics Division, Mouton finally retired in 1973. Years later, doctors diagnosed Mouton with brain cancer and she passed away in 1990 at age 61.

What’s in a name

On Feb. 15, 2023, NASA announced they would name a mountain on the moon after Mouton in honor of all her accomplishments during her time at the agency. With all mountains on the moon referred to as mons, “Mons Mouton” is now the official name of the lunar mountain near the South Pole.

Naming a mountain, or any other topographic features, on the moon isn’t as easy as you think. NASA can only suggest potential names, but it does not have the final say in determining whether the name is confirmed.

Only the International Astronomical Union (IAU) can approve a name and there’s a designated committee that handles that: the Working Group for Planetary System Nomenclature (WGPSN).

The WGPSN has certain guidelines it must follow when accepting and choosing a name, whether it be a mountain on the moon or any other astronomical object. To view the set of rules they must abide by, click here.

According to NASA, the IAU declared that the name for lunar mountains must reflect “scientists who have made outstanding or fundamental contributions to their fields.”

Given all her accomplishments in the field, it makes sense that the name Mouton was a strong candidate, and thus, approved by the IAU.

The future of Mons Mouton

Since Mons Mouton has a relatively flat top, NASA claims it is one of the potential landing spots for Artemis III, the first manned mission to the moon, scheduled in 2026.

Although Mons Mouton will first serve as the location for NASA’s Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) mission set to happen later in 2024.

Please be sure to check out the tribute video NASA put together honoring Melba Mouton, while discussing its plans for Mons Mouton as a potential landing and research site on the moon.

Whether Mons Mouton is the selected landing site for the Artemis III mission or not, the gesture of honoring one of NASA’s greatest scientists comes full circle. With all her efforts to get us to the moon, it is only fitting that her name and her legacy earn a spot among the stars.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shawnie Caslin

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February 5, 2024
Welcome to our Ask a Meteorologist chat

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By

Spectrum News Weather Staff

Tampa

PUBLISHED 3:00 PM ET Feb. 04, 2024
PUBLISHED 3:00 PM EST Feb. 04, 2024

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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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February 4, 2024
Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday morning
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After several dry days, showers and thunderstorms will return for Sunday.
What You Need To Know

Timing of the heaviest rain will be 7 a.m. to noon on Sunday

Some thunderstorms could produce gusty winds

Partial clearing expected Sunday afternoon

Additional showers wrap in on Monday
A line of showers and thunderstorms will generally cross the area between 7 a.m. and noon on Sunday.

It will be windy all day on Sunday with gusts over 25 mph at times, and some stronger gusts are possible in thunderstorms.

Highs will be near 70 in the afternoon as a slot of dry air moves in.

While we may even see some sun on Sunday afternoon, wraparound moisture on the backside of this low pressure system will bring cool showers on Monday.

Most will see around a half an inch to an inch of rain between Sunday and Monday.

Finally, drier air will return on Tuesday.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson

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February 3, 2024
Weather Explained: Groundhog Day

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Groundhog Day is arguably the biggest weather holiday of the year. On Feb. 2 each year, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his burrow at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania. Thousands of people gather around, curious to know if Phil sees his shadow.

As the legend has it, when Phil sees his shadow, it means there are six more weeks of winter ahead of us. No shadow indicates an early spring.

Phil has forecast the weather on Groundhog Day for more than 120 years. But as it turns out, he isn’t that good at his job.

Watch the video above to see how many times he’s gotten the forecast wrong and find out how we came to rely on Phil in the first place.

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Meteorologist Nick Merianos

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February 2, 2024
Rain and storms move in this weekend

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Welcome to ‘Ask a Meteorologist,’ a weekly chat that discusses a new weather topic every week.

After a sunny workweek and start to the weekend, wet weather will move in on Sunday. We also can’t rule out a few rumbles of thunder.

Bay News 9 meteorologists answer your questions about how much rain we could see.

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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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February 2, 2024
Meteorologist or imposter: Probing groundhogs’ precision

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Are our rodent friends really as accurate as they think?

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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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February 2, 2024
NHC is making changes to the cone of uncertainty this year
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will experiment with some tweaks to the way the cone of uncertainty is presented this hurricane season.
What You Need To Know

Inland tropical watches and warnings will be shown on an experimental map with the cone

The cone will still be present over the watches and warnings

The usage of the cone and alerts will not change
Instead of just displaying watches and warnings at the coast, the NHC will distribute display all tropical watches and warnings through inland areas in a new graphic on their website.

“The absence of displaying those warnings inadvertently gives the impression that it’s all clear in the more inland locations,” says Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, Jamie Rhome.

Here is a look at what the new experimental cone will look like.

For reference, here is what the traditional cone of uncertainty looks like.

Studies have shown that it is common for people to misinterpret the cone of uncertainty.

For instance, according to a study by Colorado State University, people perceive the widening of the cone toward the end of the forecast period to mean that the storm will be getting bigger.

In reality, widening the cone is just communicating a greater degree of uncertainty as to where the center of the storm will pass. It is independent of the size or intensity of the storm.

The NHC hopes to reduce misinterpretation with a new look to the cone, and this new experimental graphic is a step in that direction.

“I suspect we will have to make other changes in the realm of hurricane risk communication as time marches on,” says Rhome. “we want to move people off the cone and onto the hazards.”

Other changes could come to the cone in the future, but the National Hurricane Center wants feedback from professionals and the public before going any further.

“That’s what this experimentation is about, to start a discussion and open up a forum and a venue for people to talk to us about what changes need to be made in hurricane risk communication,” says Rhome.

Even with slight changes to how the cone is displayed, the meaning of the cone of uncertainty, along with tropical watches and warnings, will not change.

The traditional, operational cone of uncertainty will continue to be distributed by the NHC. The new, experimental, graphic will be available on the National Hurricane Center Website.

2024 storm names

Here’s a look at the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson

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February 1, 2024
Surviving avalanches: What you need to know
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This time of year, snowboarders and skiers head to some of the most popular snow summits across the country. However, snowy natural disasters called avalanches can become a concern.
What You Need To Know

An avalanche is a mass of snow moving down a slope

Someone in the victim’s party triggers 90% of avalanche incidents

The natural disaster kills about 30 people in the U.S. yearly
According to the National Weather Service, an avalanche occurs when there’s a rapid flow of snow down a hill or mountainside.

Avalanches happen suddenly and “occur during or just after snowstorms on slopes between 30 and 45 degrees.”

Also, look out for Avalanche Watches and Warnings from the Weather Service.

The NWS says 90% of avalanche incidents become triggered by someone in the victim’s party.

They also kill about 30 people a year in the U.S.

So far this year, avalanches have killed four people; in California, Wyoming, Idaho and Colorado.

Placer County sheriff vehicles are parked near the ski lift at Palisades Tahoe where avalanche occurred on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024, in Tahoe, Calif. (AP Photo/Andy Barron)

There are resources people can use to get avalanche safety training and spot potential avalanches.

One resource there is the NWS and Avalanche.org.

Here’s a breakout of avalanche safety tips and warning signs.

Remember, stay vigilant and safe during avalanches and be aware of the signs when you’re on the slopes.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Keith Bryant

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January 28, 2024
The lightning capital of the U.S. stayed in Florida in 2023
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After Four Corners, Florida–in the Kissimmee area–was crowned the lightning capital of the United States in 2022, the most frequently struck place moved a little south in 2023.
What You Need To Know

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area saw the most lightning flashes in 2023

Over 242 million flashes were recorded across the U.S. in 2023

The global lightning count was over two billion
The Finnish company Vaisala tracks lightning strikes globally every year using a lightning detection network.

They found that the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area had the most total lightning (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) of any metro in the U.S. with 120,998 flashes in 2023.

Florida led the country in lightning density (lightning events per square kilometer), followed by Mississippi and Louisiana.

Texas had the most total lightning of any state, tallying over 42 million flashes.

June 14 was the most lightning-active day in the U.S. in 2023, with more than 3.6 million flashes.

While somewhere in Florida is often the lightning capital of the United States, it is not the most struck place in the world.

Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela is considered the lightning capital of the world, with an average of 233 lightning strikes per square kilometer per year, according to NASA.

Global lightning density in 2023. (Vaisala/Xweather)

You can see Vaisala’s full report here.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson

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January 27, 2024
Wagering with an edge: How weather affects sports betting
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Sports betting has become increasingly popular over recent years, and bettors are always trying to find an edge.

For outdoor sporting events, weather is one of the biggest variables, and RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has spent the past 10 years combining his weather knowledge and passion for sports to help bettors.
What You Need To Know

Weather can heavily influence outdoor sporting events

Knowing how weather affects a game can help bettors

Altitude is the biggest advantage for a home team
From football, baseball and golf, to NASCAR, tennis, soccer and even the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, if it’s outdoors and sports-related, he’s made a forecast for it.

After earning a master’s degree in meteorology and working on TV for 10 years, Kevin Roth saw that there was a need in the fantasy sports world for real forecasts provided by an actual meteorologist, not just a low-quality automated forecast.

He provides forecasts and live weather updates for outdoor sporting events, and breaks down how the weather could affect the game with the lens of a fantasy sports player or a sports bettor.

In football, fantasy sports players get an entire week to digest the latest forecast and can decide who to start until kickoff. Sports bettors don’t get the same luxury if they want to maximize their profit, since betting lines and totals are fluid.

Football

You might think that ‘cold weather teams’ like Kansas City, Buffalo or Green Bay have a built-in advantage during the playoffs when the calendar flips to January, and the weather could offer bitter cold temperatures, high winds and snow.

Earlier this month on Jan. 13, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins during the AFC Super Wild Card Weekend in a frigid matchup. The kickoff temperature was -4 degrees with a wind chill of -20 degrees, making it the fourth coldest game in NFL history.

But Roth says he’s a firm believer that cold or snowy weather doesn’t inherently favor a ‘cold weather team’ over a ‘warm weather team,’ like Tampa Bay or Miami.

“The cold, wind and snow impacts all humans the same in a physiological way. Patrick Mahomes [Kansas City Chiefs quarterback] will get the same cold fingers in those conditions that Tua [Miami Dolphins quarterback] would.”

In football (and other sports), the weather can really make its presence known with high winds. Kicking a field goal or throwing a deep ball is much more difficult with a brisk wind in your face, versus when it’s at your back.

Baseball

According to Roth, baseball is the most interesting sport for weather effects since every single factor (rain, wind, temperature, humidity, elevation) plays a significant role in the expected outcome.

Since there are 162 games a year, and hundreds of pitches thrown each game, there is a large sample size to help isolate variables and determine how weather affects the game. Baseball is the only major team sport where every ballpark has unique dimensions, so the impacts can vary depending on where ballplayers play the game.

Roth says “in Chicago’s Wrigley Field, a southerly wind creates a jet stream effect that helps balls sail over the fence for home runs. A 15 mph wind blowing out in Wrigley can increase home run probabilities by over 50%. If you were to take that same wind, blowing out at 15 mph, to San Francisco’s Oracle Park, the wind only accounts for a 5% increase in home runs, as that stadium was specifically designed to minimize the impact of those winds.”

Temperature and humidity is a variable that applies to all ballparks more equally. Most of the season (April through October) athletes play in the thick of the warm summer months. Since hotter air is less dense, offensive players score more runs during the dog days of summer since the air is thin. Routine pop-ups can carry further, sometimes becoming a home run.

In the northern climates, teams there play those early and late season games in temperatures between 30 to 40 degrees. Roth says “the cold, dense air mass will limit how far a well-hit ball will travel, and what would have been a home run in 70 degree weather suddenly becomes a fly out.”

Best “home field advantage?”

If you’re a sports fan, you’ve heard of home field advantage. Oddsmakers and sports books will factor in 2 to 3 extra points for the home team in football games when creating lines, determining the favorite and underdog.

Some factors baked into home field advantage include the crowd, home stadium familiarity, potential officiating bias and the lack of travel, sometimes visiting teams travel across multiple time zones. But how does the weather factor in?

Roth says you have to consider elevation, since it’s the exception to the ‘this impacts everyone equally rule.’ “Our bodies take time to adjust to elevation, so any visiting team thrust into a game at elevation (i.e. – Denver) is immediately at a disadvantage when compared to players whose bodies are already acclimated to the thinner air at elevation.”

Denver Broncos defensive end Matt Henningsen (91) leaves the field during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)

Roth says that Colorado teams have the best home field advantage, since the elevation change and thin air can cause fatigue in more active sports, and change the way a pitch breaks in baseball.

What’s next?

Roth says he’s focusing on “quantitative over qualitative.” He’s been compiling weather data on every outdoor baseball game since 2000 and the statistical results (runs, home runs, ERA, strikeouts, etc) of those games.

The large sample size has allowed him to isolate weather as an individual variable, and the next step he plans is taking that data and applying it to the gambling odds or totals.

Instead of saying “it’s hot and winds are blowing out, that’s great for hitting,” he can definitively say “in 72 games with similar heat and wind in this ballpark, we’ve seen a 48% increase in home runs and a 20% increase to runs scored compared to average.”

You can check out RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth’s forecasts here:

Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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January 26, 2024
Warmer weather sets in this week

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Welcome to ‘Ask a Meteorologist,’ a weekly chat that discusses a new weather topic every week.

Our average temperature for this time of the year is in the low 70s, but we’ll see temperatures climb into the 80s throughout the week.

Bay News 9 meteorologists answer your questions about what to expect and if the warmer air stays for the weekend.

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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 26, 2024
Look for the Full Wolf Moon this week
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The Full Wolf Moon rises high in our January sky this week.
What You Need To Know

The January full moon’s common nickname is the Wolf Moon

It’ll turn truly full on Thursday

The moon rises high during the winter, similar to the summer sun

The constellation Gemini appears near this full moon
The moon will become fullest at 12:54 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 25. While it’ll be below our horizon then, don’t worry–it appears full for a couple nights before and after the time it’s truly full.

Native Americans’ names for this full moon include the Great Spirit Moon, Ice Moon and the wonderfully descriptive Someone’s Ears are Freezing Moon.

If those cold weather themes have you yearning for summer, this little nugget may help. Because the full moon resides roughly opposite the sun, it rises high in the winter since the sun’s highest point is relatively low. So, when you look at this month’s full moon, its path is similar to what the sun’s will be in July.

Simulated sky the evening of Thursday, Jan. 25. (Stellarium)

While you’re out, you’ll have no trouble finding a couple other night sights. The full moon will appear near the stars Pollux and Castor, which are the heads of the twins of the constellation Gemini. And toward the north, you’ll see the Big Dipper and Little Dipper.

Since it’s still early in the year, now’s a good time to make note of 2024’s astronomical events.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts

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January 24, 2024
Decoding tree rings: Unveiling the hidden clues of climatic history
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We’ve all heard it before. Tree rings can tell us the age of a tree, but did you know they can also tell us the weather?
What You Need To Know

Tree rings can tell us the age of the tree

They can also help us determine what years were colder, warmer, drier and wetter

Studying tree rings can help us predict future climate
How to prep for research

There are a couple of things to consider before scientists survey trees.

First, they must find a site where humans haven’t affected the area with logging or other research.

Then they pick a group of the same species of trees to take samples from. Having numerous samples from the same area can provide a more reliable look at climate similarities over the years.

Christine Buhl, a forest health specialist for the Oregon Department of Forestry, uses an increment borer to core a dead western red cedar at Magness Memorial Tree Farm in Sherwood, Ore., Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Amanda Loman)

How scientists take samples

Much like coring an apple, scientists core the trees with an instrument called an increment borer.

This allows them to take a thin sample that shows the rings from the outside to the center of the tree.

This method does not harm the tree, and the tree can heal quickly after it’s cored.

After coring the tree, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that the scientists return to the lab, sand the samples so every ring is perfectly visible, and place them upright for a microscope to begin research.

What the rings tell us

Counting the rings on the sample can tell us the trees’ age, but it can also tell us what weather patterns were like each year.

NOAA explains, “trees will have narrow rings during cold periods and wider rings for warm periods.”

They also say “trees that depend heavily on moisture during the growing season will have wider rings during rainy periods and narrower rings during dry periods.”

(Pixabay)

How this helps us

Studying tree rings can help scientists determine what climate was like for each year the tree was alive.

Because trees can live for hundreds to thousands of years, we can see what the climate was like well before record-keeping began for most in the 1800s.

Determining climate through tree rings over the past thousands of years can help reveal weather patterns and predict what climate we might see in the future.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 23, 2024
Warming temperatures and gender disparities in sea turtles
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Few species have their sex determined by temperatures, but for sea turtles it’s almost a certainty.

However, this natural occurrence could become a biological disadvantage as global temperatures continue to rise, leading to larger gender disparities.
What You Need To Know

A sea turtle’s gender is determined by the temperatures in its surrounding environment

Higher nest temperatures produce females, while cooler temperatures yield males

A warming planet will likely upset gender diversity in the sea turtle population
Temperature-driven gender reveals

The differences in reproduction between humans and sea turtles extend beyond the obvious ‘one lays eggs while the other does not.’ One key difference between the two is how sex is determined.

For humans and many other species, gender is determined from the by sex chromosomes when fertilization occurs. But this is not the case with sea turtles and other reptiles, given that they lack sex chromosomes.

For them, the gender of their offspring is determined after fertilization, and the deciding factor all depends on temperature. This kind of sexual determination is called temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD).

Building their nest onshore, a female will lay their eggs in the sand, where they will continue to develop before hatching about two months later.

A baby Olive Ridley sea turtle crawls to the sea past discarded turtle eggs at Ostional beach on the northern Pacific coast of Costa Rica, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2007. (AP Photo/Kent Gilbert)

During that time, the temperature of the surrounding sand can activate an enzyme, aromatase, in the embryos responsible for converting sex hormones, and determining gender.

Higher temperatures stimulate more aromatase activity. This yields an increase in female hormones and thus, the baby sea turtle will hatch as a female.

On the contrary, cooler temperatures limits aromatase activity. This promotes male hormones to dominate, and so the sea turtles that hatch will be male.

(AP Photo/Cody Jackson)

According to NOAA, sand temperatures of 88.8 degrees or more will yield female sea turtles, while sand temperatures of 81.86 degrees or less will produce males.

Eggs incubated in sand temperatures falling between these two thresholds will cause a mix of male and female sea turtles.

A warming world and gender inequality

Following the world’s warmest year on record in 2023, rising global temperatures will likely upset gender diversity within sea turtle populations in the years to come.

(NOAA)

Researchers from Florida Atlantic University Marine Lab announced warmer nest temperatures in recent years have produced more female hatchlings, some years even recorded no male offspring at all.

As the male sea turtle populations continue to decrease, growing disparities in gender could ultimately endanger the species’ existence in the future.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shawnie Caslin

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January 22, 2024
Where does the rain go? Understanding river basins and watersheds
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Have you ever wondered where all the rain goes? It goes to the same place as snowmelt when temperatures thaw out in the spring.

It’s called a river basin, or a watershed, and whether you know it, all the land we stand on is part of a river basin.
What You Need To Know

Rain and snowmelt goes into river basins

A river basin channels runoff into larger bodies of water

Some water soaks into the ground
Some water will seep into the shallow ground, moving through the soil and helping keep grass, trees and plants healthy. It can even travel deeper down, recharging groundwater aquifers.

Once the ground becomes saturated, a river basin collects runoff and excess water and drains it into a larger body of water.

Depending on where in the basin, it can move into small bodies of water like creeks, streams and rivers, and eventually to outflow points into larger bodies of water like a reservoir, bay or the ocean.

In the U.S., most rain runoff eventually finds its way into the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, or the Great Lakes.

This map below from Grasshopper Geography shows all the permanent and temporary streams and rivers of the Lower 48 in the U.S., divided into catchment areas.

River basins of the United States. (Robert Szucs/www.grasshoppergeography.com)

The Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (highlighted in pink) is one of the largest in the world. It includes parts or all of 31 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces, collecting precipitation for 41% of the contiguous United States.

The Mississippi River’s water level closely correlates to precipitation totals across the basin. Persistent, heavy rainfall or excessive snowmelt can cause high water levels and put sections of the river into flood stage, threatening communities along the river.

Conversely, severe drought across the Mississippi River basin can lead to low water levels, which can disrupt the shipping industry and expose some oddities from the bottom of the river.

Snowmelt

When snow melts, the water goes to the same place that rain would go. Generally, 10 to 12 inches of snowfall produces 1 inch of liquid water.

In the western U.S. mountains, environmental and utility experts work to conserve that water and replenish lakes and reservoirs that shrink or dry up during times of drought. In the Central U.S., most of the snowmelt ends up in the Mississippi River.

The annual snowpack in mountain ranges can help forecast potential flooding concerns when temperatures warm up. If there’s a large snowpack, rapid snowmelt can cause flooding.

Below, you can see a video from Dec. 2023, after heavy rainfall and snowmelt from warm temperatures combined and led to significant flooding and high waters in Fairfax, Vt.

It’s more common during the spring, but also possible if temperatures climb well above normal during winter.

Snowmelt can be just as important as rain for areas when it comes to recharging groundwater and supplying freshwater for people and animals. Less snowfall means less snowmelt and less water that could be resourceful for us.

Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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January 21, 2024
Arctic blast brings the chill across the U.S. this weekend
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We have one more day of this arctic chill across the parts of the United States.

The jackets, scarves, and beanies won’t be needed from Midwest to the Northeast after Sunday.
What You Need To Know

Cold air covers the central and eastern U.S. through the weekend

Dozens of record cold temperatures have been broken

This kind of cold can be dangerous
The arctic air wraps up from the Northeast and Southeast Sunday morning.

Parts of Florida will wake up to freezing temperatures on Sunday.

Highs will reach 15 to 25 degrees below the average for numerous spots, although this arctic surge won’t be as powerful as the previous one.

And by Monday, temperatures should be closer to normal for this time of the year.

What we saw

The arctic air has been enough to tie or break dozens of record cold temperatures over the past few days–not just morning lows, but afternoon highs.

Sunday morning saw temperatures as low as -20 to -40 degrees in northern and northeast Montana. Saco, Mont., dropped to -51 degrees, and subzero lows reached as far south as Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and parts of Indiana, according to Zack Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in College Park, Maryland.

The Associated Press reports the winter weather over the past two weeks is blamed for at least 45 deaths. That includes 14 in Tennessee alone, where 9 inches of snow fell around Nashville. Three people in Oregon were electrocuted by a live power line that fell on a car, and five people in Seattle died from exposure to cold.

Brutal cold earlier in the week made Monday’s Iowa caucuses the coldest ever, and heavy lake-effect snow and intense wind gusts forced the Steelers-Bills NFL game to be postponed from its original kickoff. A storm system on the leading edge of the cold dropped accumulating snow as far south as Arkansas and northern Mississippi, whereas much as six inches fell.

This week’s arctic waves have easily been the coldest of the season so far. Check your local forecast to see how cold you’ll get, and take a look at the stories below to be ready for the bitter blast.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 20, 2024
Proposed bill would restore mangroves to help fight coastal erosion
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TAMPA, Fla. — As climatologists predict more frequent and stronger storms, Florida coastlines face the risk of erosion. But now, there is a bill in the state legislature that aims to help our shores by expanding protections against mangroves.
What You Need To Know

Bill in state legistlature aims to help with mangrove restoration

SB 32 would encourage local governments to replant and restore mangroves

Promoting mangrove growth would help the shorelines and provide ecological benefits
Mangroves are so important to coastline protection that there are laws protecting them. SB 32 calls for the expansion of state statute by encouraging local governments to replant and restore mangroves. It would also implement permitting incentives for local governments to install what are known as “living shorelines,” which are the use of natural elements that protect as they grow.

“Any kind of measures we can do to promote mangrove growth along our shoreline areas really go a long way to help those communities that are built behind the mangroves,” said Peter Clark, president of Tampa Bay Watch.

Clark formed Tampa Bay Watch 30 years ago, and for the past decade, staff and volunteers with the organization have been installing living shorelines in the Tampa Bay region. One of the most recent installments at Lassing Park in St. Petersburg includes oyster reef balls, oyster shell bags, marsh grass and mangroves.

“Once you construct these things, they’re natural. So they can stay there and continue to grow for many, many years,” Clark said. “If you construct living shorelines and other green infrastructure, that not only helps protect those areas but provides ecological benefits back to the bay.”

The bill would also require the Florida Department of Environmental Protection to partner with the state’s Division of Insurance Agent and Agency Services to conduct a statewide feasibility study to determine how mangroves and other living shoreline projects could improve a community’s rating with the National Flood Insurance Program and ultimately lower insurance premiums.
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Cait McVey

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January 20, 2024