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Tag: Wall Street

  • Global Stocks Rise After U.S. Inflation Cools

    Global Stocks Rise After U.S. Inflation Cools

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    BEIJING (AP) — Global stock markets rose Friday after U.S. inflation eased in March and China reported unexpectedly strong exports.

    London and Frankfurt opened higher. Shanghai, Tokyo and Hong Kong advanced. Oil prices rose.

    Wall Street futures were lower, giving up part of Thursday’s gains after U.S. inflation at the wholesale level slowed more than expected.

    Asian markets were “taking cues from a solid rally on Wall Street,” said Anderson Alves of ActivTrades in a report.

    In early trading, the FTSE 100 in London gained 0.2% to 7,862.09. The DAX in Frankfurt advanced 0.2% to 7,843.38 and the CAC 40 in Paris was 0.2% higher at 7,497.61.

    On Wall Street, the future for the benchmark S&P 500 index was off 0.2%. That for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.3%.

    On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose 1.3% after government data showed prices paid to U.S. producers in March rose at their slowest rate in more than two years.

    The Dow advanced 1.1%. The Nasdaq jumped 2% to 12,166.27.

    In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.6% at 3,338.15 after China’s March exports rose 14.8% over a year earlier, rebounding from a decline in January and February.

    The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo jumped 1.2% to 28,493.47. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.5% to 20,438.81.

    The Kospi in Seoul advanced 0.4% to 2,571.49. Sydney’s S&P-ASX 200 was 0.5% higher at 7,361.60.

    New Zealand declined while Singapore and Jakarta gained. Indian markets were closed for a holiday.

    A person walks past in front of an electronic stock board showing Japan’s Nikkei 225 index at a securities firm Friday, April 14, 2023, in Tokyo. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street higher on Friday after U.S. inflation eased in March and China reported unexpectedly strong exports. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

    Traders hope signs that stubbornly high inflation is weakening might prompt the Federal Reserve and other central banks to postpone or scale back plans for interest rate hikes to cool business and consumer activity.

    Government data Thursday showed prices paid to U.S. producers rose 2.7% over a year earlier, the smallest gain in more than two years.

    On Wednesday, separate data showed consumer inflation slowed to 5% from February’s 6%.

    Another report Thursday said slightly more American workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than expected, though the job market has remained resilient.

    Notes from the Fed’s March 21-22 meeting showed members agreed its next rate hike would be one-quarter percentage point instead of a half-point.

    Some traders are betting the Fed might keep its benchmark lending rate steady at its May meeting.

    Others expect the U.S. central bank to start cutting rates as early as mid-year to shore up the economy. Fed officials have said they expect at least one more increase this year and then for the benchmark rate to stay elevated through at least early 2024.

    Meanwhile, big U.S. companies are starting to tell investors how much they earned during the first three months of the year.

    Expectations are low. Forecasts call for the sharpest drop in earnings since the pandemic was pummeling the economy in 2020.

    The biggest banks are due to report results following a flurry of anxiety about the industry after two high-profile failures in the United States and one in Switzerland. That stirred fears banks were cracking under the strain of rate hikes. Regulators appear to have soothed that unease by promising more lending to institutions and other steps if needed.

    Notes from the Fed meeting said its staff economists see such weakness potentially causing a mild recession later this year.

    In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude edged up 3 cents to $82.19 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.10 on Thursday to $82.16. Brent crude, the price basis for international oil trading, gained 1 cent to $86.10 per barrel in London. It lost $1.24 the previous session to $86.09.

    The dollar fell to 132.45 yen from Thursday’s 132.77 yen. The euro gained to $1.1060 from $1.1046.

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  • JPMorgan Chase is set to report first-quarter earnings – here’s what the Street expects

    JPMorgan Chase is set to report first-quarter earnings – here’s what the Street expects

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    Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., during a Bloomberg Television interview at the JPMorgan Global High Yield and Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami, Florida, US, on Monday, March 6, 2023.

    Marco Bello | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell Friday.

    Here’s what Wall Street expects:

    • Earnings: $3.41 per share, 29.7% higher than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv.
    • Revenue: $36.24 billion, 14.7% higher than a year earlier.
    • Deposits: $2.31 trillion, according to StreetAccount.
    • Provision for credit losses: $2.27 billion.
    • Trading Revenue: Fixed income $5.29 billion, Equities $2.86 billion.

    JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, will be watched closely for clues on how the industry fared after the collapse of two regional lenders last month.

    Analysts expect a mixed bag of conflicting trends. For instance, JPMorgan likely benefited from an influx of deposits after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank experienced fatal bank runs.

    But the industry has been forced to pay up for deposits as customers shift holdings into higher-yielding instruments like money market funds. That will probably curb banks’ gains from rising interest rates amid the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation.

    The flow of deposits through American financial institutions is the top concern of analysts and investors this quarter. That’s because smaller banks faced pressure last month as customers sought the perceived safety of megabanks including JPMorgan and Bank of America. But the bigger picture may be that deposits are leaving the regulated banking system overall as customers realize they can earn higher yields outside checking and saving accounts.

    Another key question will be whether JPMorgan and others are tightening lending standards ahead of an expected U.S. recession, which could constrict economic growth this year by making it harder for consumers and businesses to borrow money.

    Banks have begun setting aside more loan loss provisions on expectations for a slowing economy later this year, and that could weigh on results. JPMorgan is expected to post a $2.27 billion provision for credit losses, according to the StreetAccount estimate.

    Wall Street may provide little help this quarter, with investment banking fees likely to remain subdued thanks to the still-shut IPO market. CFO Jeremy Barnum said in February that investment banking revenue was headed for a 20% decline from a year earlier, and that trading was trending “a little bit worse” as well.

    Finally, analysts will want to hear what JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has to say about the economy and his expectations for how the regional banking crisis will develop. JPMorgan has played a central role in propping up a client bank, First Republic, which teetered last month, in part by leading efforts to inject it with $30 billion in deposits.

    Shares of JPMorgan are down about 4% this year, outperforming the 31% decline of the KBW Bank Index.

    Wells Fargo and Citigroup are scheduled to release results later Friday, while Goldman Sachs and Bank of America report Tuesday and Morgan Stanley discloses results Wednesday.

    This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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  • Banking turmoil was not a crisis but ‘the downside risks are real,’ IIF boss warns

    Banking turmoil was not a crisis but ‘the downside risks are real,’ IIF boss warns

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    Tim Adams

    Anjali Sundaram | CNBC

    The banking sector turmoil that led to the collapse of several lenders was not a systemic crisis and has now subsided, according to Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Finance.

    The fall of Silicon Valley Bank in early March — the largest banking failure since the global financial crisis — triggered a wave of market panic that swept through the sector in Europe and the U.S.

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    A flight of shareholders and depositors culminated in the downfall of Credit Suisse, with Swiss authorities brokering the emergency rescue of the 167-year-old institution by domestic rival UBS.

    The smaller Signature Bank was closed by regulators stateside, while Wall Street giants stepped in to make $30 billion of deposits at First Republic, buying the regional lender time to establish a survival plan.

    Markets have since stabilized, leading many to conclude that the problems were unique to the stricken banks and do not pose a systemic risk. However, the ripple effect has dented the economic outlook in many advanced economies.

    Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington D.C. on Tuesday, Adams said the March chaos was a “period of market turmoil or turbulence,” but dismissed the notion that it was a “crisis.”

    IIF CEO: Banking turmoil was not a crisis and has subsided

    “We have over 4,000 banks in the United States, we have about 10,000 banks globally that are part of SWIFT and 35,000 financial institutions around the world — 99.999% of them opened their doors over the past month and had no problems whatsoever — [it’s] really just a few isolated idiosyncratic institutions,” Adams told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche.

    “So I think it is not a crisis, I think it was market turbulence, it has subsided, it has stabilized, but we need to be vigilant and we need to watch for other stresses in the system.”

    The IIF is a global trade body for the financial services industry, with around 400 members in more than 60 countries. Adams said the primary concern among members was the downside risk to growth, particularly in advanced economies.

    The IMF on Tuesday lowered its five-year global growth forecast to around 3%, marking the lowest medium-term forecast in an IMF World Economic Outlook report since 1990.

    The D.C.-based institution’s Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC on Tuesday that the turmoil in the banking sector had weakened the growth outlook, especially in the face of rapid monetary policy tightening from central banks that have sharply increased lenders’ funding costs and increased vulnerabilities.

    IMF chief economist: Severe downside growth risk from bank lending tightening

    “There are risks, there are geopolitical risks which we can talk about, but the downside risks are real and we just don’t know how deep they are,” Adams said.

    “The Fed’s going to probably tighten again, we have other central banks in Europe and the U.K. tightening, so there are risks to the downside.”

    Regulators in the U.S. and Europe took swift action to quash contagion risk in the face of the various banking collapses last month. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen asserted on Tuesday that the banking system remains well capitalized, with ample liquidity.

    Adams suggested many of the regulators he had spoken to, including those involved in developing the Dodd Frank and Basel III frameworks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, did not believe major regulatory changes were necessary this time around.

    “It’s a very different system than [what] was prevailing in 2007, 2008. I do think we need to better understand what went wrong at certain institutions like SVB, I think we do need to ask what happened to supervision, but I don’t think we’re going to see regulatory changes,” he added.

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  • Earnings momentum: Analysts are raising expectations on these stocks going into their reports

    Earnings momentum: Analysts are raising expectations on these stocks going into their reports

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  • Watch CNBC’s full interview with PIMCO’s Tiffany Wilding

    Watch CNBC’s full interview with PIMCO’s Tiffany Wilding

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    Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO North American economist and managing director, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss how the Federal Reserve is receiving recent economic data, PIMCO’s recession odds and more.

    05:38

    Mon, Apr 10 202312:00 PM EDT

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  • Cramer’s First Take: We can’t possibly rule out that another bank won’t go

    Cramer’s First Take: We can’t possibly rule out that another bank won’t go

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    CNBC’s Jim Cramer discusses his thoughts on the latest jobs numbers, the banking crisis, and more.

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  • Wall Street says bad news is no longer good news. Here’s why | CNN Business

    Wall Street says bad news is no longer good news. Here’s why | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    There’s been a seismic shift in investor perspective: Bad news is no longer good news.

    For the past year, Wall Street has hoped for cool monthly economic data that would encourage the Federal Reserve to halt its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes to tame inflation.

    But at its March meeting — just days after a series of bank failures raised concerns about the economy’s stability — the central bank signaled that it plans to pause raising rates sometime this year. With an end to interest rate hikes in sight, investors have stopped attempting to guess the Fed’s next move and have turned instead to the health of the economy.

    This means that, whereas softening economic data used to signal good news — that the Fed could potentially stop raising rates — now, cooling economic prints simply suggest the economy is weakening. That makes investors worried that the slowing economy could fall into a recession.

    What happened last week? Markets teetered after a slew of economic reports signaled that the red-hot labor market is finally cooling (more on that later), flashing warning signals across Wall Street.

    Investors accordingly shed high-growth, large-cap stocks that have surged recently to rush into defensive stocks in industries like health care and consumer staples.

    While tech stocks recovered somewhat by the end of the short trading week — markets were closed in observance of Good Friday — the Nasdaq Composite still slid 1.1%. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6%.

    What does this mean for markets? Now that Wall Street is in “bad news is bad news and good news is good news” mode, it will be looking for signs that the economy remains resilient.

    What hasn’t changed is that investors still want to see cooling inflation data. While the central bank has signaled that it will pause hiking rates this year, its actions so far have only somewhat stabilized prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 5% for the 12 months ended in February — far above its 2% inflation target.

    Moreover, Wall Street might be overly optimistic about how the Fed will act going forward: Some investors expect the central bank to cut rates several times this year, even though the central bank indicated last month that it does not intend to lower rates in 2023.

    It’s unclear how markets will react if the Fed doesn’t cut rates this year. But there likely won’t be a notable rally unless the central bank pivots or at least indicates that it plans to soon, said George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management.

    Commentary that’s hawkish or reveals inflation worries could hurt markets, he adds. “It keeps that boiling point and that temperature a little high.”

    What comes next? The Fed holds its next meeting in early May. Before then, it will have to parse through several economic reports to get a sense of how the economy is doing, and what it will be able to handle. Markets currently expect the Fed to raise interest rates by a quarter point, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    The labor market appears to be cooling somewhat, at least according to the slew of data released last week. But it’s still far too early to assume that the job market has lost its strength.

    President Joe Biden said in a statement Friday that the March data is “a good jobs report for hard-working Americans.”

    The March jobs report revealed that US employers added a lower-than-expected 236,000 jobs last month. Economists expected a net gain of 239,000 jobs for the month, according to Refinitiv.

    The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s below expectations of holding steady at 3.6%.

    The jobs report was also the first one in 12 months that came in below expectations.

    But that doesn’t mean that the job market isn’t strong anymore.

    “The labor market is showing signs of cooling off, but it remains very tight,” Bank of America researchers wrote in a note Friday.

    Still, other data released last week help make the case that cracks are finally starting to form in the labor market. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February revealed last week that the number of available jobs in the United States tumbled to its lowest level since May 2021. ADP’s private-sector payroll report fell far short of expectations.

    What this means for the Fed is that the cooldown in the latest jobs report likely won’t be enough for the central bank to pause rates at its next meeting.

    “The Fed will more than likely raise rates in May as the labor market continues to defy the cumulative effects of the rate hikes that began over a year ago,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

    Monday: Wholesale inventories.

    Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Earnings from CarMax (KMX), Albertsons (ACI) and First Republic Bank (FRC).

    Wednesday: Consumer Price Index and FOMC meeting minutes.

    Thursday: OPEC monthly report and Producer Price Index. Earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL).

    Friday: Retail sales and University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Citigroup (C) and PNC Financial Services (PNC).

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  • Major trading platform CEO sees signs of a bond ETF revival

    Major trading platform CEO sees signs of a bond ETF revival

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    Demand for bond ETFs appears to be rising.

    According to MarketAxess CEO Chris Concannon, there are signs Treasury ETFs are on the cusp of substantial inflows.

    “We’re about to see what I’d call [a] bond renaissance,” the electronic-trading platform CEO told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “The Fed is still taking action, so I would expect bond yields overall to remain relatively high and attractive.”

    In late March, the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point — its ninth hike since March 2022. Next Wednesday, Wall Street will get the Fed minutes from the last policy meeting and more clarity on what may come next.

    VettaFi vice chairman Tom Lydon sees a similar pattern.  

    “They’re starting to move back not just into Treasurys, but into corporates and high yields with the idea that we may be able to lock in longer duration and longer payment for those higher rates, [and] with the idea that we’re not going to see higher rates a year from now,” he said.

    VettaFi’s latest data finds international and U.S. fixed income exchange-traded funds saw about $45 billion in inflows since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, it found corporate bond ETFs saw $6 billion in outflows in the first quarter

    Lydon speculates the renewed interest is caused by investors losing faith in traditional 60/40 investment portfolios.

    “We’ve seen a lot of advisors take a little bit off the table, both in the equity side and the fixed income side,” he said. “So, safety is key until we start to see confidence that the Fed really has some handle on inflation and [there’s] stability in the marketplace.”

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  • March’s banking chaos gave short sellers their biggest profits since the financial crisis

    March’s banking chaos gave short sellers their biggest profits since the financial crisis

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    NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 15: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 15, 2023 in New York City. 

    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    Short sellers were sitting on more than $7 billion in profit from the mass sell-off of bank shares by the end of March, their largest windfall since the global financial crisis in 2008, according to data firm Ortex.

    The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by domestic rival UBS headlined a chaotic month for the global banking sector.

    Fears of contagion sent shares tumbling across the U.S. and Europe, and the losses were compounded by further monetary policy tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

    Short selling is the practice of borrowing an asset and selling it on in the hope of buying it back at a lower price, pocketing the difference and profiting from the decline of its value.

    Hedge funds shorting bank stocks were sitting on a total of $7.25 billion in unrealized gains over the course of the month, according to Ortex.

    “ORTEX data shows that March was the single most profitable month for short sellers in the banking sector since the 2008 financial crash,” company co-founder Peter Hillerberg said Thursday.

    Those with short bets against the failed SVB topped the pile with unrealized profits totaling more than $1.32 billion, according to the data. Fellow California-based bank First Republic netted short sellers almost $848 million as its shares sank 89% over the course of the month.

    Credit Suisse’s capitulation made those with short positions against the bank’s Swiss-listed stock around $610 million in unrealized profit in March, Ortex data showed, with a combined $683.6 million generated from shorts on both its Swiss- and U.S.-listed shares.

    The banking crisis ripple effect also seized Deutsche Bank stock despite the absence of any discernible catalyst, which prompted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to publicly declare that the lender is a “very profitable bank” and that there was “no reason to be concerned.”

    Deutsche stock yielded an unrealized $39.9 million for short sellers in March.

    “The shares on loan in DBK went up by 496% during March, much of this at the end of the month when the price of the stock went up, which caused some of the profits for short sellers to be lost,” Ortex said, adding that it estimates that just over 5% of the bank’s free-float shares are currently shorted.

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  • JPMorgan downgrades this regional bank stock ahead of earnings

    JPMorgan downgrades this regional bank stock ahead of earnings

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  • Watch CNBC’s full interview with former TD Ameritrade CEO Joe Moglia

    Watch CNBC’s full interview with former TD Ameritrade CEO Joe Moglia

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    Joe Moglia, former TD Ameritrade chairman and CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss what Moglia is seeing from the banking sector, the consequences from the speed of money flight and more.

    11:04

    Wed, Apr 5 202311:06 AM EDT

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  • There are some positives that came from SVB’s collapse: former TD Ameritrade CEO

    There are some positives that came from SVB’s collapse: former TD Ameritrade CEO

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    Joe Moglia, former TD Ameritrade chairman and CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss what Moglia is seeing from the banking sector, the consequences from the speed of money flight and more.

    03:00

    Wed, Apr 5 202311:05 AM EDT

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  • Credit Suisse shareholders want answers and accountability, investor says

    Credit Suisse shareholders want answers and accountability, investor says

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    Vincent Kaufmann, CEO of Ethos Foundation, which represents pension funds comprising between 3% and 5% of Credit Suisse shareholders, gives his opinion on the bank’s rescue by UBS ahead of its AGM.

    05:12

    Tue, Apr 4 20234:31 AM EDT

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  • Credit Suisse shareholders gather at annual meeting to demand answers over UBS rescue

    Credit Suisse shareholders gather at annual meeting to demand answers over UBS rescue

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    A Credit Suisse Group AG bank branch in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, March 16, 2023.

    Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Shareholders are gathering at Credit Suisse‘s annual general meeting Tuesday to demand answers and accountability over its controversial takeover by UBS.

    A police presence was established early Tuesday at the venue as shareholders began arriving in droves.

    Swiss authorities brokered an emergency rescue of the stricken bank by its larger domestic rival for just 3 billion Swiss francs, over the course of a weekend in late March. It followed a collapse in Credit Suisse’s deposits and share price amid fears of a global banking crisis, but the deal remains mired in legal and logistical challenges. Neither UBS nor Credit Suisse shareholders were allowed a vote on the deal.

    In a statement Sunday, the office of the attorney general confirmed that Switzerland’s Federal Prosecutor is investigating potential breaches of Swiss federal law by government officials, regulators and top executives at Credit Suisse and UBS.

    Both banks declined to comment on Monday.

    Commentators have highlighted the importance of the deal’s success for Swiss authorities against a febrile political backdrop. The lack of input from shareholders, bondholders and Swiss taxpayers in UBS’ acquisition of its embattled rival has sparked widespread anger.

    Speaking outside the annual meeting, Vincent Kaufmann, CEO of Ethos Foundation which represents pension funds comprising between 3% and 5% of Credit Suisse shareholders, told CNBC that they had “lost a lot of money” and “need to know what management is doing.”

    Potential courses of action include “trying to retrieve some of the viable pay that was granted for former management, who may have failed in their duties to protect shareholders’ interests,” he said.

    “We’re still looking for possibilities — it’s quite difficult with the Swiss company law to prove the damage. Mismanagement of a company is not per se something we can concretely act against former members of the management or current members of the management, but still we need to be sure that they gave the whole truth to investors and to the market, so there is still open question,” Kaufmann told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche.

    Holders of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bond instruments, which were subject to a $17 billion wipeout as part of the UBS takeover, last week instructed a global law firm to pursue discussion and possible litigation with Swiss authorities.

    “There is still a chance that the various actors will recognize and correct the mistakes made in hastily orchestrating this merger,” Thomas Werlen, managing partner at Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, which is representing a “diverse array” of affected bondholders in Switzerland, the U.K. and U.S., said in a release Monday.

    “While we are certainly prepared to pursue whatever proceedings are necessary, a potential constructive engagement with the relevant stakeholders could prevent years of litigation. That will be an important focus for us over the coming weeks.”

    UBS announced last week that former CEO Sergio Ermotti would return to the helm of the new bank as it undertakes the huge task of integrating its fallen compatriot into its business.

    UBS will hold its own AGM on Wednesday, with further clarity expected on plans for the new integrated lender. Swiss regulator FINMA will also hold a press conference on Wednesday.

    Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger reported Sunday, citing one source, that plans for the new entity include a 20%-30% cut to its combined global workforce.

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  • BofA reports inflows into global stocks are on a record-setting pace — and ETFs may be a way to play the hot trade

    BofA reports inflows into global stocks are on a record-setting pace — and ETFs may be a way to play the hot trade

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    There’s a corner of the market gaining traction among ETF investors, according to The ETF Store’s Nate Geraci.

    The firm’s president finds international ETFs are experiencing stronger inflows.

    “There is a little bit of performance chasing going on here, because broad international stocks have fairly significantly outperformed U.S. stocks since about the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Investors are looking at that performance and perhaps reallocating there.”

    BofA Global Research’s latest market data out late this week appears to support Geraci’s thesis. It shows emerging markets are seeing strong inflows so far this year.

    According to the firm, inflows into emerging-market equities are clipping along at $152.3 billion on an annualized basis. This would mark the group’s largest ever inflows if the pace continues.

    Geraci believes a weakening U.S. dollar due to a potential pivot away from interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is partially responsible for the shift. The U.S. Dollar Currency Index is down almost 1% year to date.

    Valuations of overseas companies may also be more attracting investors, he added.

    And, there may be even more growth ahead.

    D.J. Tierney of Schwab Asset Management contends retail investors don’t own enough global stocks. He suggests the upside will continue into the second quarter, which starts Monday.

    “Rebalancing [to international stocks] to get some more exposure could make sense for a lot of investors,” said the senior investment portfolio strategist.

    His firm’s Schwab International Equity ETF, which tracks large- and mid-cap companies in over 20 developed global markets, is up 8.1% so far this year.

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  • Who will end up paying for the banking crisis: You | CNN Business

    Who will end up paying for the banking crisis: You | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    It cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation about $23 billion to clean up the mess that Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank left in the wake of their collapses earlier this month.

    Now, as the dust clears and the US banking system steadies, the FDIC needs to figure out where to send its invoice. While regional and mid-sized banks are behind the recent turmoil, it appears that large banks may be footing the bill.

    Ultimately, that means higher fees for bank customers and lower rates on their savings accounts.

    What’s happening: The FDIC maintains a $128 billion deposit insurance fund to insure bank deposits and protect depositors. That fund is typically supplied by quarterly payments from insured banks in the United States. But when a big, expensive event happens — like the FDIC making uninsured customers whole at Silicon Valley Bank — the agency is able to assess a special charge on the banking industry to recover the cost.

    The law also gives the FDIC the authority to decide which banks shoulder the brunt of that assessment fee. FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said this week that he plans to make the details of the latest assessment public in May. He has also hinted that he would protect community banks from having to shell out too much money.

    The fees that the FDIC assesses on banks tend to vary. Historically, they were fixed, but 2010’s Dodd-Frank act required that the agency needed to consider the size of a bank when setting rates. It also takes into consideration the “economic conditions, the effects on the industry, and such other factors as the FDIC deems appropriate and relevant,” according to Gruenberg.

    On Tuesday and Wednesday, members of the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee grilled Gruenberg about his plans to charge banks for the damage done by SVB and others, and repeatedly implored him to leave small banks alone.

    Gruenberg appeared receptive.

    “Will you commit to using your authority…to establish separate risk-based assessment systems for large and small members of the Deposit Insurance Fund so that these well-managed banks don’t have to bail out Silicon Valley Bank?” asked the US Rep. Andy Barr, a Republican who represents of Kentucky’s 6th district.

    “I’m certainly willing to consider that,” replied Gruenberg.

    “if smaller community banks in Texas will be left responsible for bailing out the failed banks in California and New York?” asked US Rep. Roger Williams, a Republican who represents Texas’ 25th district.

    “Let me just say, without forecasting what our board is going to vote, we’re going to be keenly sensitive to the impact on community banks,” replied Gruenberg.

    Representatives Frank Lucas, John Rose, Ayanna Pressley, Dan Meuser, Nikema Williams, Zach Nunn and Andy Ogles all asked similar questions and received similar responses. As did US Sens. Sherrod Brown and Cynthia Lummis.

    “I don’t doubt he’s still fielding a lot of phone calls,” from politicians pressuring him to place the burden on large banks, former FDIC chairman Bill Isaac told CNN.

    Smaller banks are saying that they’re unable to pick up this tab and didn’t have anything to do with the failure of “these two wild and crazy banks,” said Isaac. “They’re arguing to put the assessment on larger banks and as I understand it, the FDIC is thinking seriously about it,” he added.

    A spokesperson from the FDIC told CNN that the agency “will issue in May 2023 a proposed rulemaking for the special assessment for public comment.” In regard to Greunberg’s testimony they added that “when the boss says something, we defer to the boss.”

    Big banks: “We need to think hard about liquidity risk and concentrations of uninsured deposits and how that’s evaluated in terms of deposit insurance assessments,” said Gruenberg to the Senate Banking Committee, indicating that smaller banks that are operating carefully could be asked to bear less of the assessment.

    A larger assessment on big banks would add to what will already be a multi-billion dollar payment from the nation’s largest banks like JPMorgan Chase

    (JPM)
    , Citigroup

    (C)
    , Bank of America

    (BAC)
    and Wells Fargo

    (WFC)
    .

    The argument is that the largest US banks will be able to shoulder extra payments without collapsing under it. Those large banks also benefited greatly from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank as wary customers sought safety by moving billions of dollars worth of money to big banks. 

    Passing it on: Regardless of who’s charged, the fees will eventually get passed on to bank customers in the end, said Isaac. “It’s going to be passed on to all customers. I have no doubts that banks will make up for these extra costs in their pricing — higher fees for services, higher prices for loans and less compensation for deposits.”

    It’s hard out there for a Wall Street banker. Or harder than it was.

    The average annual Wall Street bonus fell to $176,700 last year, a 26% drop from the previous year’s average of $240,400, according to estimates released Thursday by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.

    While that’s a big decrease, the 2022 bonus figure is still more than twice the median annual income for US households, reports CNN’s Jeanne Sahadi.

    All in, Wall Street firms had a $33.7 billion bonus pool for 2022, which is 21% smaller than the previous year’s record of $42.7 billion — and the largest drop since the Great Recession.

    For New York City and New York State coffers, bonus season means a welcome infusion of revenue, since employees in the securities industry make up 5% of private sector employees in NYC and their pay accounts for 22% of the city’s private sector wages. In 2021, Wall Street was estimated to be responsible for 16% of all economic activity in the city.

    DiNapoli’s office projects the lower bonuses will bring in $457 million less in state income tax revenue and $208 million less for the city compared to the year before.

    Beleaguered retailed Bed Bath & Beyond will attempt to $300 million of its stock to repay creditors and fund its business as it struggles to avoid bankruptcy, reports CNN’s Nathaniel Meyersohn.

    If it’s not able to raise sufficient money from the offering, the home furnishings giant said Thursday it expects to “likely file for bankruptcy.”

    Bed Bath & Beyond was able to initially avoid bankruptcy in February by completing a complex stock offering that gave it both an immediate injection of cash and a pledge for more funding in the future to pay down its debt. That offering was backed by private equity group Hudson Bay Capital.

    But on Thursday, Bed Bath & Beyond said it was terminating the deal with Hudson Bay Capital for future funding and is turning to the public market.

    Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond dropped more than 26% Thursday. The stock was trading around 60 cents a share.

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  • ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default | CNN Business

    ‘It’s not zero.’ Wall Street is pricing in a small but growing risk of a disastrous US default | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    A US default would have such devastating economic and financial consequences that many observers dismiss the possibility out of hand. But investors are not ruling out such a nightmare scenario.

    Even though a default could wipe out millions of jobs and wreak havoc on Wall Street, the White House and Republican leaders in Washington are nowhere near a deal to avert disaster that could strike as soon as July.

    As politicians sleepwalk toward a potential debt ceiling crisis, financial markets have begun pricing in a small — but growing — chance of a disastrous default.

    The implied probability of a US government default has increased to approximately 2%, according to modeling by research provider MSCI shared exclusively with CNN. That calculation is based on the cost to insure US debt in the market for credit default swaps.

    Although the probability of default is tiny, it has increased roughly fivefold since January 2, MSCI said.

    Since then, chaos in Congress, underlined by the historic dysfunction leading up to the election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, have raised concerns about how lawmakers will reach a compromise on much thornier issues such as the debt ceiling.

    “The probability of default has gone up noticeably,” Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, told CNN in an interview. “It is small, but it’s not zero. And it has gone up in a very significant way.”

    An actual default would be terrible — for both Wall Street and Main Street. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has described a default as “financial Armageddon.”

    “I don’t think anyone should be complacent about this,” said Sparks. “Turmoil in the banking system shows how things can change very quickly.”

    The federal government hit the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in January, forcing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take accounting moves known as “extraordinary measures” to avoid default.

    Yellen has used unusually strong language for a former central banker to warn Congress against messing with the debt ceiling. On Thursday, Yellen said a breach of the debt ceiling could spark a “prolonged downturn and a global financial crisis.”

    “It could upend the lives of millions of Americans and those around the world,” Yellen said in a speech.

    Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius told CNN in January that even a near-default could cause a recession as well as turmoil in financial markets. Moody’s estimates that even a brief breach of the debt limit would kill almost a million jobs.

    All of this explains why many believe Washington will get a deal done before disaster strikes, as it has in the past.

    Even though leaders in Washington are not seriously negotiating on a debt ceiling deal, there is still time.

    The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that even without addressing the debt ceiling, the government will have enough cash to avoid a default until sometime between July and September. The exact timing for the so-called X-date will depend in large part on 2022 tax collections in April.

    Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told CNN last week that it’s “hard to imagine” the government would breach the debt ceiling.

    Still, Barkin conceded if it happened the Fed would be forced to react, much like it did after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

    Others are more pessimistic about the debt ceiling.

    Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, only sees a 60% chance that Congress reaches a deal to address the debt ceiling.

    “I think we’ll come right up to the precipice,” Valliere, who is based in Washington, told CNN. “Most people in this city feel it’s inconceivable we could default on our debt. I agree it’s unlikely but it’ll be much closer than people thought.”

    He pointed to the more radical makeup of the Republican caucus and the reluctance among some lawmakers to vote for a debt ceiling hike.

    Even McCarthy, the Republican House Speaker, told CNBC this week there has been “no progress” in negotiations. “Time is ticking. Now I’m very concerned about where we are,” McCarthy said.

    “I worry there are just enough House radicals who might not accept anything. And it doesn’t take many of them to make this a crisis,” Valliere said.

    Asked about MSCI’s estimate of a 2% implied probability of a default, Valliere said that number is low.

    “The markets are too sanguine,” he said. “The market has felt for months that this is like the little boy who cries wolf. But this is not a typical debt ceiling debate.”

    There are some early indicators of concern popping up in the bond market.

    Morgan Stanley wrote in a report on Thursday that “kinks” have emerged in the Treasury bill market around bonds that mature around the X-date.

    “Market attention could swing back to this issue soon” Morgan Stanley advised clients.

    Or maybe not.

    McCarthy and his top lieutenants say they are prepared to push ahead with a fallback plan: A party-line bill to raise the debt ceiling, CNN’s Manu Raju reports.

    But such a move could be risky. Republicans can only afford to lose four of their own members in any party-line vote.

    There is also a possibility that Congress punts, reaching a short-term agreement to delay the issue by a few months.

    Eurasia Group analyst Jon Lieber said in a report Thursday there is a growing chance that lawmakers put off a debt ceiling solution until the end of the year.

    “A short-term punt would merely delay and not eliminate the disruption risks of the debt limit,” Lieber said.

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  • ‘Nationalizing bond markets’ left central banks unprepared for inflation, top HSBC economist says

    ‘Nationalizing bond markets’ left central banks unprepared for inflation, top HSBC economist says

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    One Canada Square, at the heart of Canary Wharf financial district seen standing between the Citibank building and HSBC building on 14th October 2022 in London, United Kingdom.

    Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

    The prolonged period of loose monetary policy after the global financial crisis equated to central banks “nationalizing bond markets,” and meant policymakers were slow off the mark in containing inflation over the past two years, according to HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King.

    Central banks around the world have hiked interest rates aggressively over the past year in a bid to rein in soaring inflation, after a decade of loose financial conditions. The swift rise in interest rates has intensified concerns about a potential recession and exposed flaws in the banking system that have led to the collapse of several regional U.S. banks.

    Speaking to CNBC at the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy on Friday, King said that while quantitative easing had benefited economies trying to recover from the 2008 financial crisis, its duration meant that governments were “probably far too relaxed about adding to government debt.”

    “Part of the problem with QE was the fact that you’re basically nationalizing bond markets. Bond markets have a very very useful role to play when you’ve got inflation, which is they’re an early warning indicator,” King told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.

    “It’s a bit like having an enemy bombing raid and you turn off your radar systems — you can’t see the bombers coming along, so effectively it’s the same thing, you nationalize the bond markets, bond markets can’t respond to initial increases in inflation, and by the time central banks spot it, it’s too late, which is exactly what I think has happened over the last two or three years.”

    The U.S. Federal Reserve was slow off the mark in hiking interest rates, initially contending that spiking inflation was “transitory” and the result of a post-pandemic surge in demand and lingering supply chain bottlenecks.

    “So effectively you’ve got a situation whereby they should have been raising interest rates much much sooner than they did, and when they finally got round to raising interest rates they didn’t really want to admit that they themselves had made an error,” King said.

    He suggested that the “wobbles” in the financial system over the past month, which also included the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by Swiss rival UBS, were arguably the consequence of a prolonged period of low rates and quantitative easing.

    “What it encourages you to do is effectively raise funds very cheaply and invest in all kinds of assets that might be doing very well for a short period of time,” King said.

    “But when you begin to recognize that you’ve got an inflation problem and start to raise rates very very rapidly as we’ve seen over the course of the last couple of years, then a lot of those financial bets begin to go rather badly wrong.”

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  • Will Apple Acquire Disney? An Influential Analyst Thinks So. | Entrepreneur

    Will Apple Acquire Disney? An Influential Analyst Thinks So. | Entrepreneur

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    Could iMickey soon be a reality?

    Laura Martin, a Wall Street senior analyst for investment bank Needham, believes that Apple could acquire Disney in a mega-merger that would give new meaning to the term “Magic Mouse.”

    In a research report, Martin wrote that the companies “are worth more together than separately.”

    “Combining Apple’s distribution footprint of 1.25 billion unique customers with Disney’s 570 million consumers reached each year would drive 15% to 25% valuation upside for Apple shareholders,” she noted.

    The total valuation would be around $631 billion based on its current $2.5 trillion market capitalization, according to Markets Insider.

    Martin said that Apple and Disney are “complementary” and that combining their two strengths could give them superpowers.

    “What Apple does best is distribute content globally to 2 billion high-end mobile devices owned by 1.25 billion unique and wealthy users. And what Disney does best is create AAA content franchises, which is distributes globally across all screens, as well as in the physical world,” Martin wrote.

    Martin also pointed out that both companies are “marketing juggernauts,” able to charge premium prices to their rabid fan bases.

    Not their first dance

    Apple and Disney have had a long history of working well together. When Apple launched the video iPod, Disney was one of the first companies to offer their shows on the platform. Disney also famously bought Pixar, which was helmed by Apple’s legendary founder Steve Jobs. Iger and Jobs were good friends.

    But good relations do not a merger make. Rumors of the two companies coming together have been squelched in the past.

    Bob Iger, the newly reanointed Disney CEO, said in a Town Hall last year that he had no plans to merge with Apple.

    “What you’ve read about in that regard is just pure speculation,” Iger said.

    Still, analysts like Martin believe that a merger is essential in a highly competitive market.

    “I think Apple is doing a very mediocre job of streaming. They just said they were going to do a billion dollars in film financing. That’s sort of laughable, because these companies that are competing in content businesses are spending $30 billion a year. Even Netflix is spending $20 billion a year,” Martin told CNBC earlier today.

    “Guess what the Walt Disney Company has: 100 years of some of the best intellectual property, characters, and film franchises on earth. So to own that in perpetuity would actually lower Apple’s cost.”

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    Jonathan Small

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  • Wall Street Bonuses Took a Big Hit in 2022 | Entrepreneur

    Wall Street Bonuses Took a Big Hit in 2022 | Entrepreneur

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    Wall Street bonuses took a hit in 2022.

    According to data analyzed by the New York State Comptroller, people employed in the “securities industry” in New York City saw their bonuses drop 26% — from an average of $240,400 in 2021 to $176,700 in 2022, Bloomberg reported.

    Securities industry workers include people who participate in things taken on by large financial institutions — including underwriting securities and helping to buy and sell commodities or securities.

    The comptroller’s report said the total bonus pool for securities workers in 2022 was $33.7 billion, down from $42.7 billion the year prior. In addition to lamentable effects on the City’s coffers, the decrease was “the largest drop since the Great Recession,” according to the report.

    Since 2008, the average bonuses for securities industry workers went up by 75.2%, left-leaning think tank the Institute for Policy Studies said in a report released Thursday that analyzed the Comptroller data and Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

    “By contrast, average weekly earnings for all U.S. private sector workers increased by only 54.4 percent during this period,” IPS wrote,

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    Gabrielle Bienasz

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