Meta, Amazon, Google, OpenAI, and other tech companies spent billions last year investing in AI. They’re expected to spend even more, roughly $700 billion, this year on dozens of new data centers to train and run their advanced models.
This spending frenzy has kept Wall Street buzzing and fueled a narrative that all this investment is helping prop up and even grow the U.S. economy.
President Donald Trump has cited that argument as a reason the industry should not face state-level regulations.
“Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the ‘HOTTEST’ in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social in November. “We MUST have one Federal Standard instead of a patchwork of 50 State Regulatory Regimes.”
Some prominent economists have also given credibility to this story with their analysis. Jason Furman, a Harvard economics professor, said in a post on X that investments in information processing equipment and software accounted for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis similarly estimated that AI-related investments made up 39% of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025.
But now some Wall Street analysts are starting to rethink this narrative.
“It was a very intuitive story,” Joseph Briggs, a Goldman Sachs analyst, told The Washington Post on Monday. “That maybe prevented or limited the need to actually dig deeper into what was happening.”
Briggs’ colleague, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, said in an interview with the Atlantic Council that AI investment spending has had “basically zero” contribution to the U.S. GDP growth in 2025.
“We don’t actually view AI investment as strongly growth positive,” said Hatzius. “I think there’s a lot of misreporting, actually, of the impact AI investment had on U.S. GDP growth in 2025, and it’s much smaller than is often perceived.”
Hatzius said one major reason is that much of the equipment powering AI is imported. While U.S. companies are spending billions, importing chips and hardware offsets those investments in GDP calculations.
“A lot of the AI investment that we’re seeing in the U.S. adds to Taiwanese GDP, and it adds to Korean GDP but not really that much to U.S. GDP,” he said.
On top of that, there is currently no reliable way to accurately measure how AI use among businesses and consumers contributes to economic growth.
So far, many business leaders say AI hasn’t significantly improved productivity.
A recent survey of nearly 6,000 executives in the U.S., Europe, and Australia found that despite 70% of firms actively using AI, about 80% reported no impact on employment or productivity.
The shine is coming off gold and silver. Prices for the precious metals, which last week soared to record highs, are extending their slide after a sharp selloff on Friday.
Gold, which topped $5,500 last week, dipped below $4,500 per ounce in overnight trading. Friday’s decline amounted to the biggest one-day drop in the shiny metal’s price since 2013, noted Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown. Silver also suffered its worst daily loss, tumbling more than 31%.
As of 10:30 a.m. EDT, gold and silver had rebounded to $4,779 and $81.
What’s behind the metals meltdown?
Investors have poured into the metals in the last year amid concerns about mounting global geopolitical uncertainty and government borrowing, as debt levels across the U.S. and other major economies continue to rise.
The sell-off on Friday came after President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Although Warsh has over the last year argued in favor of lowering interest rates, he is generally viewed as “hawkish” on inflation.
With consumer prices still running above the Fed’s annual 2% target, that could incline Warsh against the kind of aggressive rate-cutting that President Trump has demanded, according to Wall Street analysts. Gold prices often (though not always) fall as interest rates rise because holdings of the metal don’t pay interest, leading investors to rotate into stocks and other risk assets in search of higher returns.
The plunge in precious metal prices was also fueled by a rebound in the dollar, which had fallen to its lowest level in four years before Warsh was nominated as Fed chair, according to JPMorgan analysts. The values of gold and the dollar typically move in opposite directions.
“We get a catalyst of a rebound in the U.S. dollar, to some degree on the back of the nomination of Warsh, and from that perspective, that’s really the trigger that leads to very swift, significant de-risking… and the real sharp rollover into Friday,” Gregory Shearer, executive director of global commodities research at J.P. Morgan, in a call with clients on Monday.
Other factors also fed into the sell-off. Investors had borrowed heavily capitalize on the run-up in gold over the last year. But once prices began to slide, many of those same investors faced rising margin requirements, the minimum amount set by brokerage firms to maintain their leveraged position, according to Nigel Green, CEO of financial consulting firm deVere Group.
“Many chose, or were forced, to sell,” Green said in an email. “This process pushes prices lower regardless of fundamentals.”
Where are precious metal prices headed now?
On Wall Street, opinions are mixed on where gold and silver prices go from here.
“The recovery may not be immediate or dramatic, but we believe the mechanics favor a bounce rather than continued freefall once the forced phase ends,” Green said.
JPMorgan analysts also think the hard assets are likely to recover. In a research note, commodities analysts with the bank lifted their year-end target for gold to $6,300.
But Neil Shearing, group chief economist at investment advisory firm Oxford Economics, said in a research note that he expects gold to end the year “well below current levels.”
“While some market participants may be buying gold due to genuine concerns about the global economic and political backdrop, our sense is that market exuberance and a dose of FOMO are inflating a bubble in gold,” he added.
Wall Street just learned an expensive lesson about betting on Washington.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, UnitedHealth Group lost roughly $60 billion in market value on January 27 after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed 2027 payment rates that would barely budge from current levels.
Analysts had expected increases closer to 5%. Instead, CMS suggested a 0.09% bump. UNH stock plunged 19% in a single session, marking its worst day since April 2025.
For income investors who’ve collected UnitedHealth (UNH) dividends through thick and thin, the question isn’t just about recovering the stock price.
It’s whether that dividend check keeps showing up while the company navigates what could be its roughest period in decades.
UNH is dependent on Medicare for long-term growthGetty Images Heather Diehl ·Getty Images Heather Diehl
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
UnitedHealth has become heavily dependent on Medicare for revenue growth.
The company’s Medicare revenue is now more than double its private insurance revenue.
That worked great when government rates kept climbing. Now it’s a vulnerability.
CEO Steve Hemsley, who came out of retirement to lead the turnaround after the company fired his predecessor last year, tried to project confidence during Tuesday’s earnings call.
Investors didn’t share his enthusiasm as the stock kept falling.
UnitedHealth now expects 2026 revenue to reach roughly $439 billion, a 2% decline from 2025. That’s the first revenue contraction since 1989, back when hardly anyone had heard of managed care.
That’s worse than the company originally anticipated, driven by fierce competition during the annual enrollment period.
Add in expected losses of 565,000 to 715,000 Medicaid members, plus declines across commercial plans, and you’re looking at total membership dropping by 2.3 million to 2.8 million people.
That’s not all bad news, though. UnitedHealth deliberately walked away from unprofitable business, repricing plans to focus on members it can actually serve sustainably. The strategy prioritizes margin recovery over top-line growth.
“We will need very meaningful benefit reductions and to take a hard look at our geographic and product footprint,” Noel said, according to Reuters.
In other words, seniors should expect fewer extras and potentially higher out-of-pocket costs as insurers scramble to protect margins.
This is where dividend investors need to focus.
UnitedHealth expects to generate at least $18 billion in operating cash flow for 2026.
That works out to roughly 1.1 times net income, down from 1.5 times in 2025 but still healthy enough to cover the dividend.
CFO Wayne DeVeydt said the dividend would “remain well supported by earnings and cash flow” this year.
According to data from Tikr.com, between 2026 and 2030, UNH stock is forecast to expand from:
Revenue from $449 billion to $581.8 billion.
Free cash flow from $19.35 billion to $27.80 billion.
Annual dividend from $8.75 per share to $12.72 per share.
Wall Street expects UnitedHealth’s dividend payout ratio to range around 41% over the next four years, which is not too high. In this period, the dividend yield at cost is expected to increase from 3% to 4.5%.
But here’s the catch investors need to understand: DeVeydt made clear the company won’t return to “historical capital deployment practices” until the second half of 2026. That’s corporate speak for “don’t expect share buybacks anytime soon.”
The dividend itself looks safe based on cash flow projections. But growth in the payout? That could slow to a crawl as the company prioritizes balance sheet repair and navigates a hostile regulatory environment.
For 2026, UnitedHealth projects adjusted earnings per share of greater than $17.75, representing growth of at least 8.6% over 2025’s adjusted EPS of $16.35.
That’s solid, but nowhere near the double-digit earnings growth investors had grown used to.
UnitedHealth faces more than just rate pressure. The WSJ report explained:
The Trump administration has shown little appetite for insurance industry lobbying, despite initial expectations that it would take a friendlier approach.
Federal spending cuts remain a priority, and political hostility toward insurers has only intensified.
Two powerful House committees recently grilled insurance CEOs about care denials, business structures, and profits.
President Trump himself has said he wants to meet with insurers to push for lower pricing.
Meanwhile, CMS administrator Mehmet Oz has positioned himself as a “new sheriff in town” ready to crack down on industry billing practices that have drawn scrutiny.
The final 2027 rates won’t be announced until April, giving the industry time to lobby for improvements. But the early signals suggest the government isn’t in a generous mood.
UnitedHealth’s dividend isn’t in immediate danger. Cash flow remains strong enough to support current payouts, and management has explicitly committed to maintaining the dividend.
But this isn’t a growth story anymore, at least not for the next year or two.
The company needs time to stabilize margins, work through membership declines, and adapt to a tougher regulatory environment.
Dividend growth will likely remain minimal until earnings momentum returns, not until 2027 at the earliest.
For conservative income investors looking for steady, growing dividends, UnitedHealth doesn’t fit that profile right now. The dividend is safe, but it’s unlikely to grow at the historical pace.
For more aggressive investors willing to ride out volatility, the 19% selloff could create value. But you’d need patience to wait for the turnaround to gain traction and comfort with the political and regulatory risks that aren’t going away.
Sometimes the best dividend play is the one you don’t make.
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks opened with modest gains Monday, as earnings season kicks into a higher gear and investors eye the next policy meeting of the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The index is coming off its second weekly loss in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 184 points, or 0.4%, as of 9:45 a.m. ET. The Nasdaq added 0.3%.
The major airlines were slightly lower in early trading after thousands of flights were canceled due to a massive winter storm that affected travel from the Rockies all the way to the East Coast. Delta and United each fell 1.2%.
USA Rare Earth, an Oklahoma-based miner of critical minerals, became the latest company to get a boost from an investment by the U.S. government. Shares rose 25%.
Gold gained another 2%, and topped $5,000 an ounce for the first time, while silver jumped 8.6% to around $110 per ounce. The value of precious metals has surged in recent months as investors sought relatively safe places to invest amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Natural gas futures climbed another 2.2% as cold weather set in across the country following the winter storm that dumped more than a foot of snow in places and left many without power.
Investors will also be paying close attention to the latest developments at the U.S. Federal Reserve, where officials meet this week to decide where to take interest rates. Most expect central bank officials to stand pat after they cut rates at the final three meetings of 2025.
Markets this week will be focused on corporate earnings, some of which might show the negative effects from recent U.S. tariff policies.
This week will feature the latest financial results from United Airlines, Boeing, General Motors, Meta, Microsoft and Apple.
Markets in Europe showed small gains. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark took a tumble after the yen rebounded against the U.S. dollar on rumors of possible government intervention. The Nikkei 225 index dropped 1.8%.
The Japanese yen has been weakening against the U.S. dollar, and many other major currencies, since 2021. So Japanese consumers and companies pay more now for imported food, fuel and other items needed to keep the world’s fourth largest economy running.
The dollar slipped to 153.83 Japanese yen from 155.01 yen. It had been trading around 158 yen last week.
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, JPMorganChase, speaks during the Reagan National Defense Forum at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, U.S. December 6, 2025.
Jonathan Alcorn | Reuters
President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to sue JPMorgan Chase over allegedly “debanking” him following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.
“I’ll be suing JPMorgan Chase over the next two weeks for incorrectly and inappropriately DEBANKING me after the January 6th Protest, a protest that turned out to be correct for those doing the protesting,” Trump said in a social media post. “The Election was RIGGED!”
“While we won’t get specific about a client, we don’t close accounts because of political beliefs,” said JPMorgan spokesperson Trish Wexler. “We appreciate that this Administration has moved to address political debanking and we support those efforts.”
In August, Trump signed an executive order requiring banks to ensure they are not refusing financial services to clients based on religious or political beliefs, a practice known as “debanking.”
Trump claimed without evidence in an August CNBC interview that he was personally discriminated against by banks. He said JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America refused to take his deposits following his first term in office.
At the time, JPMorgan said it does not close accounts for political reasons, while Bank of America said it doesn’t comment on client matters. BofA also said it would welcome clearer rules from regulators on how to conduct its activities.
Trump and his family have a history of railing against financial institutions for allegedly refusing to work with them on the basis of their political orientation.
“So, [my family] got into crypto, not because it was like, ‘hey, this is the next cool thing,’ we got into it out of necessity,” Trump Jr. told CNBC in an interview last June.
JPMorgan shares are down about 5% over the past week, even after the bank on Tuesday topped expectations for its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue. The shares, and others in the banking sector, fell in response to Trump’s demand to cap credit card rates at 10%, giving financial firms until Jan. 20 to comply.
Trump’s legal threat against JPMorgan comes as the president, in the same Truth Social post, denied a Journal report on Wednesday that said the president had offered JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon the position of Federal Reserve chairman months ago during a meeting at the White House.
Dimon took the proposition as a joke, according to the Journal report.
In his post, Trump denied the report, underscoring his reservations about Dimon and JPMorgan.
“This statement is totally untrue, there was never such an offer,” he wrote. “Why wouldn’t The Wall Street Journal call me to ask whether or not such an offer was made? I would have very quickly told them, “NO,” and that would have been the end of the story.”
JPMorgan’s Wexler said the “offer” reported by the Journal was a miscommunication. “I should have been more vigilant in correcting that word while attempting to dispute the WSJ’s anonymous sources,” she said.
The Journal did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside of normal business hours.
Investors may be “having a cake and eating it” in 2026, with Wall Street strategists predicting stock market gains driven by Fed rate cuts, tax incentives, and lower-than-expected inflation.
As Wall Street prepares for this week’s highly anticipated monthly Consumer Price Index report, which is expected to stay unchanged from the prior month at an annual increase of 2.7%, strategists are pointing to cheap oil prices and easing shelter costs as a sign that prices may be cooling.
“Our view is that inflation will surprise to the downside in 2026,” Longview Economics global economist and chief market strategist Chris Watling told Yahoo Finance last week.
It’s not all good news on the economic front. Last month’s employment report, released on Friday, showed the economy added fewer jobs than expected to cap a weak 2025.
But a cooling labor market gives the Federal Reserve reason to cut rates this year, which could push bond yields lower. That’s especially true if President Trump’s pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May shifts the central bank in a more dovish direction.
Lower yields mean cheaper borrowing costs, which can boost economic activity and keep corporate capital expenditures high.
“You could really get an economy pretty juiced as we go through this year, because you can have the capex, and you can have the sort of consumption starting to improve as housing fixes up and bond yields move lower,” Watling added. “This is what I call having a cake and eating it.”
Wall Street is already spotting “green shoots” as companies take advantage of the depreciation tax benefits from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act, signed into law in July.
“If you are a CFO of a company, and the OBBB allows you to get 100% depreciation for capex in one year … you will absolutely accelerate as much of your multi-year capex spend into 2026 as possible, or risk getting fired for missing those tax benefits,” Nomura Securities equity derivatives analyst Charlie McElligott wrote in a note last week.
Economic growth happens even as affordability challenges maintain a K-shaped divide, with the bottom half of consumers struggling to cover basic needs. In a nod to affordability ahead of the midterms, Trump recently criticized firms like Blackstone for buying single-family homes as investments, a hot-button issue for voters.
Rents have started to ease after years of relentless growth. That’s one reason Goldman Sachs expects the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to trend toward the Fed’s 2% target. The firm also noted that the one-time price bump from last year’s tariffs is fading, which should further ease inflation.
“Healthy economic and revenue growth, continued profit strength among the largest US stocks, and an emerging productivity boost from AI adoption should lift S&P 500 EPS by 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027,” Goldman’s Ben Snider wrote on Wednesday.
The latest data shows worker productivity in the third quarter grew at its fastest clip in two years, as businesses spent heavily on AI and pulled back on hiring.
That productivity boost is expected to broaden the stock market rally, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) touched all-time highs last week. Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were some of the leading sectors as investors trimmed tech exposure.
“We’re producing a lot more with less people,” RCM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance on Friday, though he believes the full impact of AI is still a couple of years away.
Wall Street strategists predict stock market gains in 2026 driven by Fed rate cuts, tax incentives, and lower-than-expected inflation. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Against that backdrop, strategists are watching for sectors and companies positioned to benefit from leaner headcounts and growing AI adoption.
“Pay attention to high human capital businesses — so let’s say finance companies, retail companies, consulting, accounting type businesses,” Clark Capital CIO Sean Clark told Yahoo Finance recently.
“Quality value companies are now starting to experience the benefit of this AI revolution, driving earnings, driving productivity, [and] driving margins higher,” he added.
However, some warn that if the labor market is replaced by AI too quickly, it could pose a sudden threat to the broader economy.
“We term it as the dark side of AI,” Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovative Capital Management, told Yahoo Finance. Urbanowicz estimates that 15%-20% of the layoffs at the end of last year were related to artificial intelligence.
“If you start to see the jobs market or labor market starting to be replaced by AI in a major way, we think that becomes problematic,” he added.
StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose on Wall Street Tuesday morning and approached more all-time highs.
The S&P 500 added 0.4% and is sitting just below the record it set in late December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 158 points, or 0.3%, after setting a record on Monday. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.4% as of 10:10 a.m. Eastern.
Big technology companies were behind much of the market’s gains. Nvidia jumped 1.5% and was the biggest single force behind the market’s gains. It is among the most valuable companies in the world and its outsized valuation gives it more influence in the market.
Nvidia’s gain, along with a 7.4% gain for Micron, helped counter Apple’s 0.8% loss.
Technology companies, especially those focused on artificial intelligence, are being closely watched this week during the industry’s annual CES trade show in Las Vegas.
AI advances helped propel the broader market to a series of records in 2025. Investors will be watching companies for any updates that could shed more light on the big corporate investments in AI technology.
The price of benchmark U.S. crude oil fell 0.3%, pulling back from sharp gains a day prior when the market reacted to U.S. forces capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a weekend raid.
Treasury yields rose in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.18% from 4.15% late Monday. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which moves more closely with expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do, rose to 3.47% from 3.45% late Monday.
Gold prices rose 1% and silver prices rose 4.6%. Such assets are often considered safe havens in times of geopolitical turmoil. The metals have notched record prices over the last year amid lingering economic concerns brought on by conflicts and trade wars.
Outside of company announcements, Wall Street is preparing for several updates on the U.S. labor market this week.
AP business writers Elaine Kurtenbach and Matt Ott contributed to this report.
In a market where growth stocks often steal the spotlight, reliable income still matters, especially during periods of uncertainty. High-yield dividend stocks with solid business models and steady cash flows continue to earn Wall Street’s confidence, offering investors a blend of income and stability.
Here are three high-yield dividend stocks Wall Street still trusts to deliver dependable income, even when markets turn volatile.
Valued at $170.7 billion, Verizon Communications (VZ) is one of the largest telecommunications companies in the United States, providing wireless, broadband, and enterprise connectivity services. The company’s core strength lies in its wireless business, which generates consistent, recurring revenue from millions of subscribers. This stability supports Verizon’s attractive dividend, making it a favorite among income-focused investors looking for consistency rather than quick growth.
Verizon pays a high dividend yield of 6.8% and maintains a healthy payout ratio of 57.6%, which leaves room for dividend growth as well as business expansion. It also has been paying and increasing dividends for the past 20 years, backed by steady cash generation from essential communication services. Verizon expects to generate free cash flow between $19.5 billion and $20.5 billion for the full year; that should help it continue the payouts.
Overall, Wall Street rates VZ stock as a “Moderate Buy.” Of the 28 analysts that cover the stock, eight rate it a “Strong Buy,” three recommend a “Moderate Buy,” and 17 suggest a “Hold.” Based on the average target price of $47.22, the stock has an upside potential of 16.6% from current levels. Its Street-high estimate of $58 further implies VZ stock can go as high as 43.3% in the next 12 months.
www.barchart.com
AT&T (T) remains a high-yield dividend stock that Wall Street continues to trust, thanks to its essential role in U.S. communications infrastructure. Valued at $177.1 billion, AT&T is one of the country’s largest telecom providers, delivering wireless, broadband, and enterprise connectivity services to millions of customers nationwide. AT&T’s wireless segment provides mobile voice and data services to consumers and businesses, generating steady, recurring revenue that allows it to pay consistent dividends.
AT&T’s dividend yield is 4.5%, which is significantly higher than the communications sector average of 2.6%. Its healthy payout ratio of 50% is supported by consistent cash flows from critical communication services. The company intends to generate free cash flow in the low-to-mid $16 billion range for the full year 2025, leaving the door open for dividend increases.
Overall, Wall Street rates AT&T stock as a “Moderate Buy.” Of the 28 analysts that cover the stock, 15 rate it a “Strong Buy,” three say it is a “Moderate Buy,” and 10 rate it a “Hold.” Based on the average target price of $29.68, the stock has an upside potential of 19.8% from current levels. Its Street-high estimate of $34 further implies the stock can go as high as 37.2% in the next 12 months.
www.barchart.com
Altria Group (MO) is one of Wall Street’s most trusted high-yield dividend stocks, built on decades of steady cash generation and disciplined capital returns. Best known for owning the iconic Marlboro brand in the U.S., Altria dominates the domestic tobacco market and has long been a cornerstone holding for income-focused investors.
Valued at $96.7 billion, Altria sells cigarettes and smokeless tobacco products, generating highly predictable revenue thanks to strong brand loyalty and pricing power. Even as cigarette volumes decline industry-wide, Altria has consistently offset this trend through regular price increases, protecting margins and cash flow. That resilience underpins one of the most reliable dividend profiles in the market. Altria’s high dividend yield of 7.4% is higher than the consumer staples average of 1.9%. Altria has earned the title of a Dividend King by increasing its dividend 60 times in the past 56 years, reassuring its status as one of the most reliable dividend profiles in the market.
Overall, on Wall Street, Altria stock is a “Hold.” Of the 14 analysts covering the stock, four rate it a “Strong Buy,” eight rate it a “Hold,” one says it is a “Moderate Sell,” and one rates it a “Strong Sell.” Based on the average target price of $61.45, the stock has an upside potential of 6.6% from current levels. Its Street-high estimate of $72 further implies the stock can go as high as 25% in the next 12 months.
www.barchart.com
On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
U.S. stocks opened with gains on the final trading day of November.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and needs a slightly larger gain to avoid its first down month since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 138 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%.
Coinbase Global added 3.6% as bitcoin rose above $92,000 after dropping to around $81,000 last week. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency is still well below its all-time high of around $125,000 set in early October.
Most tech stocks posted gains, with Meta Platforms rising 1.4% and Micron Technology adding 2.8%. But Nvidia, the market’s most valuable stock, fell 1% and is headed for a double-digit loss for the month. Oracle another high-flyer that struggled this month, fell 2.3%.
Wall Street is operating on an abbreviated schedule Friday after being closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Stock trading closes at 1 p.m. ET.
Earlier, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were halted for hours due to a technical issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CME said the problem was tied to an outage at a CyrusOne data center.
After slumping earlier this month as investors worried that many of the tech stocks that were propelled higher by the frenzy over artificial intelligence, stocks have risen for four straight trading sessions on hopes the Federal Reserve will again cut interest rates at its meeting next month.
Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have given traders more confidence the central bank will again cut interest rates at its meeting that ends Dec. 10. Traders are betting on a nearly 87% probability that the Fed will cut next month, according to data from CME Group.
The central bank, which has already cut rates twice this year in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market, is facing an increasingly difficult decision on interest rates as inflation rises and the job market slows. Cutting interest rates further could help support the economy as employment weakens, but it could also fuel inflation. The latest round of corporate earnings reports was mostly positive, but economic data has been mixed.
The minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting in October indicate there are likely to be strong divisions among policymakers about the Fed’s next step.
Treasury yields held mostly steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.01%.
In European trading, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3% as traders awaited inflation data set to be released later in the day.
Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.3% on gains in energy and mining stocks. The CAC 40 in France also rose 0.2%.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% higher to 50,253.91, rebounding from losses earlier in the day. Data showed Japan’s housing starts rose 3.2% in October from the same period a year ago, the first annual increase since March. The number defied market expectations of 5.2% decline and reversed a 7.3% drop in September.
South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.5% after the country’s industrial production fell 4% month-on-month in October, more than the 1.1% decline in September.
The U.S. stock market rose on Monday, spurred by a jump in tech stocks and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may slash its benchmark interest rate at its December meeting.
The S&P 500 climbed 108 points, or 1.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points, or 0.6%, as of 2:10 p.m. EDT. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 2.7%.
Companies with investments in artificial intelligence saw gains on Monday. Alphabet, which has been getting praise for its newest Gemini AI model, rallied 5.5% and was one of the strongest forces lifting the S&P 500. The jump in tech stocks comes as investors continue to assess the potential of AI-focused businesses, even as questions remain about whether an AI bubble is forming.
AI chipmaker Nvidia gained 2.1%.
Stocks also rose on renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates for a third straight time at its Dec. 10 meeting. Traders now place the likelihood of a rate cut around nearly 80%, up from 41% on Thursday, according to data from CME FedWatch.
But Monday’s gains were hesitant, and the S&P 500 rallied to a gain of 1% only to halve it within the first 15 minutes of trading, before picking up momentum again.
Stocks have been swinging sharply, not just day to day but also hour to hour, in recent weeks as worries weigh about what the Fed will do with interest rates and whether too much money is pouring into AI and creating a bubble. All the uncertainty is creating the biggest test for investors since an April sell-off, when President Donald Trump shocked the world with his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Still, despite all the recent fear, the S&P 500 remains within 2.8% of its record set last month.
Fresh economic data
Several more tests lie ahead this week for the market, though none loom quite as large as last week’s profit report from Nvidia or the delayed jobs report from the U.S. government for September.
One of the biggest tests will arrive on Tuesday, when the U.S. government will deliver data showing the inflation rate at the wholesale level in September.
Economists expect the data to show a 2.6% rise from a year earlier, the same inflation rate as August. A higher-than-expected reading could deter the Fed from cutting its main interest rate in December because lower rates can worsen inflation. Some Fed officials have already argued against a December cut in part because inflation has stubbornly remained above their 2% target.
Monday’s rally came at the start of an abbreviated trading week. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. A day later, it’s on to the rush of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
On Wall Street, U.S.-listed shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell 5.8% Monday after it reported that its Alzheimer’s drug failed to slow progression of the disease in a trial.
Grindr dropped 9.9% after saying it’s breaking off talks with a couple of investors who had offered to buy the company, which helps its gay users connect. A special committee of the company’s board of directors said it had questions about the financing for the deal by the investors, who collectively own more than 60% of Grindr’s stock.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, continued its sharp swings. It was sitting near $87,600 after bouncing between $82,000 and $94,000 over the last week. It was near $125,000 last month. The cryptocurrency has shed more than $700 billion in market capitalization since it peaked in early October and is trading at its lowest level since April.
In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe following a mixed finish in Asia.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2% for one of the world’s biggest moves. It got a boost from a 4.7% leap for Alibaba, which has reported strong demand for its updated Qwen AI app. Alibaba is due to report earnings on Tuesday.
In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.04% from 4.06% late Friday.
Bitcoin continued to slide on Friday, extending a weeks-long slump that has wiped out nearly $800 billion in value since the cryptocurrency hit its 2025 peak last month. The downturn has stripped away all of bitcoin’s gains this year — and raised questions about where it might go from here.
Since closing at almost $125,000 on Oct. 6, its highest price this year, bitcoin has shed about one-third of its value. On Friday, bitcoin sank below $82,000 before rebounding slightly to $83,509 before noon EDT, according to CoinGecko, a cryptocurrency data aggregator.
The cryptocurrency, which is trading at its lowest level since April, is now on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022, when a spate of corporate collapses sparked turbulence in the crypto sector, Bloomberg reported Friday.
The precipitous drop comes as Wall Street grapples with unease over whether there’s a bubble in artificial technology and tech stocks, prompting a shift away from assets that are viewed as carrying more risk, analysts say. Investors are also cautious given signs of weakness in the labor market, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next month, with more economists now expecting the Fed to hold off on cutting rates.
“The future is uncertain. It almost feels like it’s moving back to the question: do I even want to hold [bitcoin] in this environment?” said Thomas Chen, the CEO of cryptocurrency company Function, in an email.
Why is Bitcoin falling?
Concerns about an AI bubble can translate into turbulence for cryptocurrencies because tech stocks tend to move in tandem with bitcoin, experts noted.
“When tech sneezes, it’s natural to expect Bitcoin to catch a cold,” noted Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, in an email.
Aside from pulling back from riskier assets, some investors may be selling bitcoin to cover margin calls. Coinbase, for example, now offers “perpetual futures,” a product that lets traders use up to 10-to-1 leverage on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Leveraged positions can force investors to sell because borrowing amplifies every price move — for both gains and losses. Even a small drop in the underlying asset can lead to an outsized loss on a leveraged trade. But if an asset tumbles and the investor can’t meet the margin requirements, the trading platform may automatically liquidate the position, which leads to more selling and downward pressure on its price.
“When traders borrow heavily to magnify positions, any reversal triggers liquidations that accelerate the move,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial advisory organization, said in an email.
Large declines in bitcoin’s price aren’t unusual, and the cryptocurrency has always rebounded, experts noted.
Brian Vieten, a research analyst at Siebert Financial, said in a Tuesday email that bitcoin has historically experienced around five corrections of 20-30% or more during bull markets, adding that the issues may represent “temporary headwinds” as some investors could view lower crypto prices as a buying opportunity.
Vans Warped Tour is alive again and heading to Orlando’s Camping World Stadium this month to celebrate more than three decades of music.
Orlando is one of only three cities hosting the pop-punk extravaganza and 30-year anniversary comeback, and is set to welcome a series of corresponding events leading up to the two-day fest that takes place Saturday and Sunday, Nov. 15 and 16.
The Warped Wall-Street Takeover transforms Wall and Court streets into “Warped World” for a four-day bar crawl-style get-together from Nov. 13 to 16. It’s free to attend and features food trucks dishing out Warped Tour-themed eats, a Warped Pour pop-up bar, trivia nights and a barbecue after the festival’s final shows of the night on Nov. 15 and 16.
On the eve of the fest, Warped will partner with Emo Nite to put on a night of nostalgic emo and pop-punk anthems courtesy of a live DJ. The party takes place at the Beacham on Friday, Nov. 14.
If you can’t make the Orlando events, the Skate Park of Tampa is also set to host the annual Harvest Jam All Ages Contest — which will serve as a one-stop shop for Warped Tour 2025 merch.
Warped Tour kicked off in June in Washington D.C. and touched down in Long Beach, California in July. The Orlando fest wraps up the comeback.
The musical lineup includes both seasoned Warped Tour performers and new faces, some of which include 3OH3!, A Day to Remember, The Wonder Years, Winona Fighter, Movements, Simple Plan, Bowling for Soup, Pennywise, Miss May I, Dance Hall Crashers, Less Than Jake, Thursday, MGK, Falling in Reverse, Boys Like Girls, Microwave and many, many more.
DENVER — As you’re out holiday shopping, one legal expert warns to keep an eye out for buy now, pay later (BNPL) plans. With tighter budgets, they can look enticing as they can split large purchases into smaller, more manageable ones over a monthly basis.
However, the lawyer Denver7 spoke with said BNPL plans can easily rope you into more debt, and there aren’t many protections in place to keep you out of trouble.
76% of Americans use BNPL plans, 72% of GenZ uses them, and 50% of users have already missed at least one payment, according to LegalShield.
Rebecca Carter is a principal at the law firm Friedman, Framme & Thrush. Carter told Denver7 she is seeing more people calling her office asking for advice after falling into debt with buy now, pay later plans. She said there’s not much that can be done legally after you’ve signed the terms.
“It’s not as though [these companies] are doing anything unlawful,” Carter said. “Protection really comes in with spreading education and understanding the potential for penalty. I wish there was more, but [there’s not].”
Prices for all goods rose 0.3% in September after rising 0.4% in August, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report. It continues a trend of rising inflation amid interest rate cuts aimed at jump-starting a slowing job market.
It has made holiday shopping budgets tighter this year, so Carter said to be mindful and educate yourself and your kids about these plans.
“Creditors have an interest in getting paid back,” Carter said. “You have an interest in preserving your credit, you know, and trying to be proactive earlier on.”
She said it can be easy to find yourself over-spending when you rely on BNPL plans and then finding yourself in credit trouble down the road.
Denver7 | Your Voice: Get in touch with Dan Grossman
Denver7 morning anchor Dan Grossman shares stories that have an impact in all of Colorado’s communities, but specializes in covering consumer and economic issues. If you’d like to get in touch with Dan, fill out the form below to send him an email.
It was August 2023, and Matt Swain had five offers on the table for Triago, the company where he’d recently ascended to CEO. He’d built the mightily profitable franchise in an obscure corner of private equity called “directs”—essentially pairing solidly run businesses that wanted to sell, with family offices looking for outsize returns. Now, suitors comprising top banks from Spain and Korea, a leading U.S. private equity firm, a major Midwestern lender, and a giant Asian trading house were circling.
But as Swain weighed the offers, one stood out—from Bob Hotz, chairman of corporate finance and acquisitions chief at mid-market investment banking powerhouse Houlihan Lokey. He felt sure that Houlihan would provide the best home for himself and his team. So he was crushed when an email arrived: “We regrettably will withdraw from considering the purchase of Triago,” wrote Hotz, but noted that “you were the primary reason for our interest,” and graciously suggested they meet for a quick coffee at 9:20 the next morning.
Swain didn’t expect much. “I didn’t even wear socks with my loafers. I never wear socks at any casual, inconsequential meeting,” he recalls. “I just wanted to get veteran Bob’s advice on which offer to pick.” At breakfast, the hyperkinetic youngster quizzed the silver-coiffed, soft-spoken Hotz, who’s a half-century his senior. “Given the time limit, I was talking so fast I didn’t even touch my usual avocado toast. I asked Bob: ‘Which one is the right fit?’ And Bob does a total flip, and says, ‘I think we’re the best partner.’”
At 11 p.m. on Wednesday, Aug. 30, Hotz called Swain to declare he was in—but only on the condition that Swain leave his house full of guests on Nantucket and fly to London the Sunday of Labor Day weekend for a rapid-fire session of due diligence. Swain agreed and boarded the red-eye to Heathrow toting a bulging roller suitcase packed full of financials. By the following Friday, Houlihan Lokey had clinched the whirlwind purchase, reportedly for well over $100 million.
The marriage created a force to watch on Wall Street, between a whiz kid with a knack for dealmaking, and the giant mid-tier investment bank you’ve probably never heard of. In his early twenties, even before joining Triago, Swain beat the Wall Street pros in recognizing that the burgeoning wealth of family offices meant there was high interest in purchasing individual companies, rather than investing in “blind pools” of enterprises assembled by the private equity (PE) giants.
The founders of those family offices had often built and sold their own companies, and they and their heirs relished “kicking the tires,” instead of having a Carlyle or TPG decide for them. To satisfy that appetite among the super-wealthy, Swain developed a wide network of venturesome “independent sponsors,” operators that obtained letters of intent to purchase private, midsize businesses that did everything from making routine airplane parts to marketing Disney-branded souvenirs at a predetermined price.
That process where investors cherry-pick their own deals rather than, say, joining fund No. 7 of a PE colossus, is called “directs.” It’s existed for decades, but in his five years at Triago, Swain has proved the prime mover in taking the sector from backwater to big business, and became king of the realm. By Fortune’s estimates, drawn from industry data, the value of all direct deals, using the broad definition of single investments in private companies, will explode to something like $200 billion this year, multiple the number several years ago.
Still, “directs” have a way to go before they pose any sort of real threat to the PE giants. Though Swain has big plans, there has yet to be mass adoption by the traditional stalwarts of PE—the big pension funds, insurers, and endowments. Those huge institutions still overwhelmingly choose pools, where they can put tons of money to work quickly without specialized teams needed to parse these bespoke deals. Meanwhile success attracts competition—and Swain’s fat returns (garnered by buying and fixing cheap, overlooked, small and midsize companies) are attracting more and more competitors, a trend that could hike prices and reduce profits.
But no challenges seem to faze Swain, who has developed a vast Rolodex featuring the investment arms for the clans of late real estate magnate Sam Zell and ambassador to the U.K. Warren Stephens, plus the Romneys and Bloombergs, among a panoply of luminary names. He proved an expert at curating a cast of top sponsors and identifying the investments that promised—and a few years later delivered—big, PE-beating returns. “Pre-Matt, we had to find the independent sponsors, and it was difficult,” says Duran Curis, founding partner at Ocean Avenue Capital Partners, who manages a $2 billion portfolio of 140 directs. “His big contribution is that he finds them for us, and presents the best opportunities.” Now, paired with the muscle of Houlihan Lokey, Swain has big plans to start selling to pension funds, endowments, and asset managers.
Adds David Feierstein, cofounder of Ronin Equity Partners, an investment firm for which Swain’s raised several hundred million dollars to fund half a dozen purchases, “If you didn’t have someone as aggressive and charismatic as Matt, the directs industry wouldn’t be nearly where it is today. Matt had the first mover advantage. In directs, Matt runs the show.”
The charm offensive
There’s something rare about Swain, who is a young brainiac, but one who has built his business the old-fashioned, pre-quant-trading and Excel models Wall Street way, via charm offensives that weave webs of tight relationships few rivals can match. It’s remarkable that this super-hustler comes from a highly privileged background. He grew up in Greenwich, Conn., son of the CFO of a prominent hedge fund. His ancestors were the original owners of Nantucket island. “Matt tells me his family had been coming to Nantucket for generations. So we’re walking to get coffee and we pass Swain Street, then Swain House, then we go to the Whaling Museum and get greeted by half a dozen portraits of his forbears,” says Rupert Edis, CEO of the Landon family office that includes Landon Capital Partners, a long-standing investor in Swain’s directs.
After graduating from Colgate University, where he served as student body president and starred in squash—he’s still one of the best amateur players in Manhattan—Swain joined Stifel, in a “placement agent” unit that raised money for hedge funds. The managers were amazed that family offices weren’t returning their calls, so they assigned Swain to find takers from a “dead list” of 1,000 mostly wealthy clans. The green recruit got mostly noes, upbraidings, and even a “You’re a midget!” from the respondents who didn’t hang up, but he also learned there was a gap in the market.
Swain played matchmaker. He found that independent sponsor IVEST needed funding for a plush toy purveyor called Dan Dee, and brought their leaders to Solamere, the family office representing the Romneys, former Walmart CEO Lee Scott, and other wealthy investors. Swain raised $100 million to notch the purchase. By 2018, he found a spot that was just small and daring enough to take a flier on his vision of building a whole business around directs: Triago, the firm founded by Frenchman Antoine Dréan that did a thriving trade in a close cousin, finding buyers for limited partners (LPs) that sought to sell their stakes in private equity pools.
Swain quickly turned directs into Triago’s profit driver. Over three years, he raised $3 billion in equity capital for 35 deals that, including debt, backed over $10 billion in purchases. In April 2022, Dréan named his 27-year old comer as CEO.
While Big PE typically delivers twofold returns to investors over a longer holding period, directs aim far higher. “Our investors are looking for returns of 3x or more,” says Patrick Zyla, managing director of Castle Harlan, a firm that Swain has worked with extensively.
Regular PE funds famously charge around 2% a year on all investors’ funds, whether or not they’ve been put to work yet. The directs sponsors typically don’t charge any fees at all, and even better, don’t get paid unless they deliver big-time. The industry’s giants usually get a fixed “carry” of 20% of profits when companies are sold. But directs deals are usually structured so that the sponsors garner zip until they hit a 2x bogey. Over that number, they start collecting 20%, but their take accelerates sharply with each multiple of their investors’ stake they return. If the sponsor-managers hit 5x, they can pocket as much as 40% of the gain.
“If you didn’t have someone as aggressive and charismatic as Matt, the directs industry wouldn’t be nearly where it is today.”David Feierstein, cofounder of Ronin Equity Partners
Sam Zell, who along with his team funded a number of Swain’s deals, absolutely loved this ultra-“skin in the game” aspect of directs. (Swain relates that Zell liked having his photo snapped alongside the youngster, as Swain was only slightly taller than the late bantam tycoon.) Zell and the president of the Zell family office EGI, Mark Sotir, would push Swain to arrange transactions that raised the bar for capturing a share of the profits, but gave the management teams an even bigger score for fabulous results.
That makes Houlihan Lokey’s pitch particularly appealing right now, given that PE has seen a sharp drop-off in exits: According to Hamilton Lane, a firm that invests on behalf of pension funds, as of 2021 PE firms were still holding 45% of their buyout deals five years following their purchase; last year, around 65% were still sitting unsold after a half-decade.
Meanwhile Swain’s model thrives on speed. With directs, the money comes fast, and so do the fees. It typically takes placement agents working on behalf of PE firms nine to 18 months to raise a full fund. But once the Swain gang gets a mandate from a sponsor, he and his bankers regularly make the rounds and secure the funding in eight to nine weeks. His team of 40 also concentrates on bigger and bigger deals that swell their take from the average directs transaction. This year, he expects to do around a dozen deals at an average enterprise value of $200 million to $400 million. “That’s much, much bigger than the average in the industry,” he avows. “We’re now working on one worth $2 billion, and the numbers will keep climbing.”
That expanded holding time, and LP thirst for liquidity, should especially benefit the first field where Swain and Houlihan Lokey envisage big expansion beyond traditional directs: so-called continuation vehicles, or CVs, where a fund tags an outstanding company promising great things, and doesn’t want to sell as it exits the other holdings. Today, Evercore is the biggest player, but Houlihan is rising. CVs cash out most of the existing LPs in that star “keeper” at a good return, and replace them with a fresh crop that sees big gains ahead by keeping and growing the standout for another, say, three or four years. The company spins off from the fund and continues as a stand-alone. The newcomers are once again going “direct” since they’re shopping on a deal-by-deal basis.
The second offshoot is what’s known as “co-investment.” PE firms increasingly seek to raise money beyond what the original investors contributed to a given fund. Say the managers see a software provider on the block at a bargain price, and want to add it to a tech portfolio. Or the “concentration limit” on any one purchase is $300 million, and they’d hate to miss out on a perfect fit at $450 million. Or the goal may be clinching a big add-on acquisition, or satisfying an unforeseen surge in sales by constructing new plants. In all those cases, the fund may lack the capital for seizing the opportunity. It may have $300 million still in its coffers and need a couple of hundred million more.
Swain and the Houlihan Lokey team view the area, still in its infancy, as a huge field for lucrative fundraising and investment-banking business. It’s a good deal for the fund LPs because they pay no fee or carry on the additional capital. The new investors pay carry at a rate that’s closely tied to performance: The percentage starts low and rises depending on the level of profit achieved. The arrangement empowers the co-investors to pick and choose their own individual deals, the great lure of directs in general.
Instead of coming from the small sponsors that Swain has mainly represented in the past, these opportunities are flowing from big, established PE outfits that have run these candidates for years, and can show impressive track records, both for the co-invest property and the firm’s overall performance. That imprimatur greatly heightens their appeal.
“A commercial thought every minute of every day”
At Houlihan Lokey, Swain persists in the headlong roundelay of networking that’s his calling card. He does most of his business in a five-block radius of Midtown Manhattan. He resides in a Moorish-themed, Park Avenue high-rise, where he rents an apartment from Eric Trump; Ivanka Trump is his neighbor. Swain does his primary dealmaking at two nearby eateries, tony French venue Le Bilboquet and the LoewsRegency Bar & Grill. “I do back to back breakfasts at Loews, then a lunch at Bilboquet,” he avows. “Then in the evening it’s three chapters. First a cocktail at Bilboquet, then a real dinner, then an elongated catch-up over drinks. Before I hit 30, it would stop at midnight. Now that I’m 30, it’s over by 11:00 or midnight.” In the interests of efficiency, Swain changes tables when the new guest arrives, even if the old guest is still sitting there. Notes Tom Burchill, managing partner of PE firm Seven Point: “He bounces from one pole to another. Once, I got him for 45 minutes at Bilboquet. Lucky me.” When on Nantucket, Swain zooms around the island in a hard-bottom, Navy SEAL–style, super-high-speed raft, a type deployed by the military in Ukraine. He had it imported, and the money went to a manufacturer looking to support jobs in the beleaguered nation.
His business associates view him as both blithely charming and, in a word, obsessed. “Matt thinks a commercial thought every minute of every day,” observes Hotz, whom Swain reveres as “Uncle Bob.” Adds Mike DiPiano, managing general partner at tech PE firm NewSpring Capital: “He’s a young man selling at all times.” His ability to attract top older notables is remarkable. “He’s got this old soul for a young guy, and it’s infectious,” says Kevin Wilcox of the Stephens family office. Edis, of the Landon family office, praises Swain’s knack for “attracting powerful mentors and allies” and calls his ability to accomplish tasks in a jiffy as “Napoleonic”—at 5-foot-8, by the way, Swain is midsize, like the companies he markets.
Though Houlihan Lokey bought Triago 18 months ago, each side is already bringing the other big benefits. It’s astounding that the firm is so little known. Houlihan ranks as the world’s largest investment bank for midsize private companies. It’s also been the top performer on Wall Street for rewarding investors over the past decade, and by a lot. In that span, it’s delivered total shareholder returns of 26.4% a year, beating such fellow boutiques as Lazard (5.9%), Jefferies (13.2%), Moelis (17.2%), and Evercore (22%), while also waxing big guys Citigroup (9.3%), Bank of America (14.5%), Goldman Sachs (18.0%), Morgan Stanley (19.9%), and J.P. Morgan (20.3%). Back in the fall of 2015, Houlihan’s market cap trailed those of Jefferies, Lazard, and Evercore. Now at $13.6 billion, it’s bigger than all three.
A major plus in terms of the synergy at the newly combined company: the directs investment, fund investment, CVs, and co-investments originating from Houlihan Lokey’s PE clients. In 2023 Atlas Merchant Capital, a combined hedge and PE fund headed by former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond, worked with Houlihan as its advisor to MarshBerry, in a significant fund investment for that leading platform in the insurance brokerage space. Diamond is a Swain fan and was one of the Triago bidders. Now that Swain has joined Houlihan, Diamond is giving the firm business on both the fund investment and directs sides; he’s recently engaged the Swain team on securing follow-on capital for Atlas portfolio companies.
The CV connection is also spouting advisory fees for Houlihan Lokey. Last October, Swain raised the money for PE fund NewSpring, renowned for scoring big from buying Nutrisystem in the 2000s, for a vehicle that combined two of its star portfolio holdings. “You realize that if you could just hold these investments longer you’ll get much more out of them,” says cofounder DiPiano. Over sundry phone calls, Houlihan provided investment banking guidance to the family office investors, parsing the transactions’ pros and cons.
In co-invests, Riverside, a $14 billion PE firm that had been a Houlihan Lokey client for years but never worked with Triago, was seeking additional co-investment equity as a way to attract new limited partners and close on two fresh investments. Via the Houlihan connection, in stepped the Swain team. “We were introduced to dozens of LPs in short order, and secured investments from a number of them,” says Peggy Roberts, a managing partner at the firm. “Partnering with Houlihan has helped us forge sustained relationships with firms we would not have met otherwise.”
In the past nine months, Houlihan has raised over $500 million to secure three purchases for Swain’s stalwart customer Ronin. In June, the Swain contingent provided Ronin the funding to buy a company that repairs and overhauls systems for commercial aircraft. Houlihan conducted analysis on behalf of the family office investors. In April, Landon Capital Partners (LCP) scored a big hit via the sale of its portfolio holding, Wisconsin cheesemaker Heartisan Foods, where it partnered with Ronin on a deal in which Triago had raised the money. Through the Swain link, LCP has awarded Houlihan two mandates, one for a debt financing of a portfolio company, and another to explore a sale.
Early this year, the directs franchise collected $75 million in equity and debt for Seven Point to buy Frazier Aviation, producer of structural parts for military aircraft. Now, Seven Point is strongly considering Houlihan Lokey to provide the mark-to-market valuation analysis of its portfolio holdings to deliver to investors.
The rewards also go the other way. Liberty Hall, a PE sponsor focused exclusively on aerospace and defense, is a long-standing Houlihan Lokey client, and had hired Triago before the acquisition to lead a CV. The tie-up has further deepened its Houlihan relationship. Liberty Hall hired Houlihan to raise the capital for a classic direct that closed earlier this year. Between the CV and direct, Houlihan secured $250 million for Liberty. It’s also working with the Houlihan M&A group to seek new purchases.
Edis, chief of the Landon family office and a protégé of its founder, the late swashbuckling billionaire Timothy Landon, who’s legendary as the chief political advisor to his military school chum, the sultan of Oman, notes that Swain gives Houlihan Lokey an extra edge. “Matt’s been crucial in upselling Houlihan’s other services. As investments move through their life cycle, they need M&A, debt refinancing, and finding buyers for the final sale, and the natural thing for one of Matt’s companies is for Houlihan to take on that work,” says Edis. “We’re doing a new refi with Houlihan because of the cycle that began with Matt.”
In April 2025, the firm promoted Swain as co-head of its equity capital solutions group. The unit encompasses both the equity and debt fundraising franchises; according to sources on Wall Street the group generates $400 million to $500 million a year in revenue—that’s as much as a quarter of the $2.4 billion the firm posted in fiscal year 2025, ended in March.
Swain’s section is highly lucrative. From industry sources, Fortune estimates that at an annual run rate, the three directs areas combined—the traditional variety, CVs, and co-invests—are raising well over $5 billion a year. From studying this highly fragmented industry, Fortune concludes that Houlihan Lokey leads the field in combined classic directs and CVs; in directs alone, it holds a market share of around 10%.
For Swain, the rise of directs presages nothing less than a revolution in the world’s financial markets. “In the future, more and more institutional investors like pension funds and endowments will follow the family offices in buying individual companies, just as investors pick stocks. Instead of investing in a pool, they’ll invest directly into a company’s equity,” he declares. “In other words, directs will make the private market for companies much more liquid so that it looks like the public market for stocks.” Swain predicts that within a decade, the total size of the three classes of directs will be attracting the same annual volume of new funds as traditional PE commands today.
“In the future, directs will make the private market for companies much more liquid so that it looks like the public market for stocks.”Matt Swain
Already the Ventura County Employees’ Retirement Association is launching a program that will spend up to $20 million on directs co-investment this year, and the Texas Municipal Retirement System plans to dedicate as much as $15 billion over the next five years, adding extra growth capital to individual holdings in PE funds. “The large pension funds are migrating to smaller managers in the lower-middle-market and middle-market space because that’s where they’re seeing the highest returns,” says a leading investment advisor to the PE industry.
Swain’s PE customers praise his analytical skills in identifying the most promising deals. “He did intense due diligence on the Frazier Aviation deal, where we’re sponsor,” recalls Burchill of Seven Point. “When Matt goes in front of investors and says it will be good, they listen to him. His credibility helped give us our choice of investors.”
The golden child has developed his own highly original approach in trawling for profit—even on the streets of Manhattan, where you’ll never find him inside a taxi. “No matter how hot or cold it may be, Matt will say, ‘Let’s walk. It’s better for networking,’” marvels Hotz. One day in September, this writer joined Swain on one of his excursions down Park Avenue, and on cue, he ran into Jack Oliver, who heads the PE firm Finback, alongside former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Two of the most outsize personas in private equity held their own little curbside summit, rapping on how they might connect on deals. I later asked the super-personable Oliver whether he or Swain is the more magnetic presence. Riposted Oliver: “I’d have to say I have the bigger personality. But he’s more successful.” One thing’s for sure, in a business that thrives on relationships, Swain will never stop working the room, the block, the island, the world, to bring deep-pocketed investors into his own corner of Wall Street.
NEW YORK (AP) — Almost everything in your 401(k) should be coming up a winner now. That makes it time for a gut check.
Not only is the U.S. stock market setting records, so are foreign stocks. Bond funds, which are supposed to be the boring and safe part of any portfolio, are also doing well this year, along with gold and cryptocurrencies.
Many professionals along Wall Street are forecasting that the U.S. stock market will keep rising. But the threat of a sharp drop remains, as it always does. That leaves investors with the luxury now, while prices are high, to reassess. Don’t get lulled into leaving your 401(k) on autopilot, unless you’re intentionally doing so, and make sure your portfolio isn’t stuffed with too much risk.
Here are some things to keep in mind:
The stock market is doing well?
Even after a few recent stumbles, the S&P 500 has soared more than 35% from its low point in April, shortly after “Liberation Day.”
“The market continues to (hit) record highs on the back of strong earnings and easing U.S.–China trade tensions,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, who calls the current state of “steady growth without irrational exuberance” a ”Goldilocks environment.”
If the market’s so great, why should I worry?
You don’t need to worry at the moment, but remember that the stock market will fall eventually. It always does.
The S&P 500 index, which sits at the heart of many 401(k) accounts, has forced investors to swallow a 10% drop every couple of years or so, on average. That’s what Wall Street calls a “correction,” and professional investors see them as ways to clear out excessive optimism that may have pushed prices too high. More serious drops of at least 20%, which Wall Street calls “bear markets,” are less common but can last for years.
Back in April, the S&P 500 index plunged nearly 20% from its record at the time. But the market came back, propelled by the big tech companies that have led the way the last few years.
What could trip up the market?
The stock market has charged to records because investors are expecting several important things to happen. If any fail to pan out, it would undercut the market.
Chief among those expectations is that big U.S. companies will continue to deliver big growth in profits. That’s one of the few ways they can justify the jumps in their stock prices and quiet criticism that they’ve become too expensive. One popular measure of valuing stocks, which looks at corporate profits over the preceding 10 years, showed the S&P 500 recently was near its most expensive level since the 2000 dot-com bubble.
Consider Nvidia, the chip company that’s become the poster child of the artificial-intelligence trade. If it fails to meet analysts’ high expectations for growth, its stock will look more expensive than it already does. It’s trading at 54 times its earnings per share over the last 12 months, much higher than the overall S&P 500’s price-earnings ratio of nearly 30.
What’s the next event to be mindful of?
Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve could be a key moment for the market.
Besides companies delivering bigger profits or stock prices falling, another way for the stock market to look less expensive is if interest rates ease.
The widespread expectation is that the Fed will cut its main interest rate. Investors will focus will be on whether the Fed gives any hints about the likelihood of more cuts in coming months.
Several of Wall Street’s most influential companies will report earnings this week, including Microsoft and Apple. And President Donald Trump will be meeting with China’s leader, Xi Jinping on Thursday.
If there’s a bubble, I should sell everything, right?
A famous saying on Wall Street is that being too early is the same as being wrong.
The best approach might be: Make sure your investments are set up the right way, so you can stomach the market whether it goes up or down.
How much of my 401(k) should be in stocks?
It depends on your age and how much risk you’re willing to take.
If you did sell stocks this past April, you may have had too much of your portfolio in stocks for your risk tolerance. Or you may need to steel yourself more during the next drop.
Remember that anyone decades away from retirement has the luxury of waiting out any drops in the market. Bear markets are actually great in that case, because they put stocks on sale for anyone continuing to make regular contributions to their 401(k).
Workers closer to retirement still need stocks, though in smaller proportions, because they have historically provided the highest returns over the long term, and a retirement can last decades.
I hate all this uncertainty
Unfortunately, it’s the price you have to pay if you want the strong returns that the U.S. stock market has historically provided over the long term.
This is what the stock market does. It goes up and down, sometimes by shocking amounts, but it usually helps patient savers build their nest eggs over decades.
Ben Fulton, CEO of WEBs investments, recommends monitoring volatility by paying attention to the VIX, a volatility index, sometimes called the “fear index, which measures market expectations of future risk. The VIX is currently around 16, which Fulton said signals ”calm by historical standards.”
However, if the VIX holds steady above 20, it often “signals a time to gradually reduce market exposure,” he said.
The Giving Pledge was designed to hold the world’s richest people accountable for donating at least half their fortunes in their lifetimes or wills–but so far, only John and Laura Arnold have actually done it.
From well-known Wall Street energy trader to philanthropist, John Arnold began his career trading natural gas at Enron and later ran a hedge fund, Centaurus Partners. By 2012, he had retired and fully pivoted to philanthropy at 38 years old.
The Arnolds have donated over $2 billion to date, and more than $204 million in 2024, according to Forbes. Currently, their net worth is around $2.9 billion, meaning their donations amount to about 42 percent of their wealth.
In addition, John Arnold has a Forbes philanthropy score of 5 out of 5. The score is based on those who have donated more than 20% of their wealth.
Since launching their foundation, “Arnold Ventures,” in 2008, their philanthropic efforts have expanded to 150 employees across offices in New York City, Washington, D.C., and Houston.
How the Arnolds donate
John and Laura Arnolds’ approach to giving is data-driven, aiming to deliver real, measurable results from what they offer, and has been fundamentally focused on research. Their efforts include a variety of public policy issues, including health care, higher education, criminal justice, infrastructure, and more.
Emphasizing research and measurable outcomes, their philanthropy also reflects a broader belief that wealth should be used in real time—not preserved for future generations. In fact, John Arnold has previously noted that The Arnolds will not have a legacy foundation after their deaths.
Most recently, “Arnold Ventures” joined the American Institute for Boys and Men to issue a call for new research on the long-term consequences of online sports betting as states continue to legalize the practice.
The Giving Pledge
Launched in 2010 by Bill and Melinda French Gates and Warren Buffett, the Giving Pledge invites the world’s wealthiest individuals and families to publicly commit to giving away at least 50% of their wealth to philanthropy, either during their lifetimes or in their wills.
Some of the signers include Bezos’s ex-wife MacKenzie Scott (but not Jeff Bezos), Michael Bloomberg, Elon Musk, George Lucas, and Mark Zuckerberg.
Despite hundreds of billionaires signing the Giving Pledge, they haven’t necessarily followed through. The pledge is a moral commitment rather than a legally binding contract—participants sign an open letter explaining their reasons for giving. They can choose which causes and charities to support.
The Institute for Policy Studies’ 2025 report, The Giving Pledge at 15, highlights that Laura and John were the only participants technically in compliance with the pledge since signing in 2010.
“The Arnolds should be commended, they’ve boldly decided to give and to study how philanthropy can actually move money out the door instead of sequestering wealth. They’re among the most significant players in the Giving Pledge class when it comes to pushing real charity reform,” report co-author Bella DeVaan told Fortune in an interview.
Among the 22 deceased U.S. Pledgers, only eight met their pledge before death—just one, Chuck Feeney, gave away his entire fortune while alive.
Furthermore, of the original 57 U.S. signers in 2010, 32 remain billionaires, with their net worth increasing by almost 300% since signing. Only 11 of the original group are no longer billionaires—but it’s mainly because their net worth dropped, not because they gave it away.
“Wealth is accumulating incredibly quickly for the wealthiest people in America,” DeVaan added. The Giving Pledge is one of the few public commitments they make in lieu of stronger federal regulation or taxation—so its fulfillment is really important.”
John Arnold recently defended The Giving Pledge on X following a Fortune report about Peter Thiel saying he encouraged Elon Musk to abandon it due to concerns that his wealth would be donated to “left-wing nonprofits.”
“The multitude of billion-dollar fortunes, whether in the 1s, 10s, or 100s, have the potential to be put to enormous benefit,” Arnold wrote. “I won’t offer unsolicited advice as to what I think someone should do with their money. I’d only suggest that figuring out what to do with it in a productive fashion can be as important as trying to make more.”
Elon Musk stole the show in the final minutes of Tesla’s Wednesday earnings call to label the advisory firms pushing shareholders to reject his $1 trillion pay package “corporate terrorists.”
After months of being relatively quiet following his resignation from the Department of Government Efficiency and subsequent fallout with President Donald Trump, Musk slammed proxy advisory firms Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis.
“I just don’t feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis, who have no freaking clue,” Musk said. “I mean, those guys are corporate terrorists.”
Musk, in a separate X post on Wednesday, also called into question the role of proxy advisory firms generally. The Tesla CEO echoed criticism from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood by saying these firms—which issue recommendations to shareholders for how they should vote on proposals at public companies’ annual shareholder meetings—have too much sway, especially with passive investors like index funds, which have substantial voting power because of the shares they hold for clients.
“ISS and Glass Lewis have no actual ownership themselves and often vote along random political lines unrelated to shareholder interests! This is a major problem that is not just limited to Tesla,” Musk wrote on X.
However, advisory firms do not vote directly in annual shareholder meetings and merely recommend positions that are also individually analyzed by some of the biggest institutional investors, including BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which do their own in-house research. Both ISS and Glass Lewis twice recommended voters reject Musk’s previous 2018 pay package. Shareholders ultimately approved the package twice.
A spokesperson for Glass Lewis told Fortune in a statement its job is to provide analysis and recommendations to its clients.
“Those that are Tesla shareholders will ultimately make their own decisions about Mr. Musk’s pay proposal and the Board directors that put it forward for shareholder vote,” the statement read.
ISS declined to comment. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Musk, who has a net worth of $455 billion, said he needs an ownership stake “in the mid-20s approximately” to achieve his goals at Tesla. The pay package in question would give Musk about $1 trillion over 10 years if he meets performance metrics, one of which includes boosting the company’s market cap more than 500% to $8.5 trillion.
ISS and Glass Lewis both issued reports earlier this month questioning Musk’s pay package, in part because of the package’s size and because it would dilute existing shareholders’ holdings.
While Tesla claimed regular benchmarking doesn’t apply to Musk’s pay, because no other company has “remotely similar goals embodied in their compensation programs,” Glass Lewis wrote in its report that Musk’s 2025 performance award is “unprecedented” compared with that of other public companies, and around 33.5x larger than its predecessor from 2018.
“It is clear that the quantum, on a realizable and granted basis, outpaces all other pay packages.”
Tesla’s Q3 2025 update reports record vehicle deliveries and record energy storage deployments, alongside higher revenue, but earnings pressure persisted due to margin headwinds and a likely pull-forward of demand before U.S. EV tax credits expired in September.
Shares dipped about 1.4% in after-hours trading as investors appeared to brace for softer demand through the remainder of the year.
CEO Elon Musk is expected to give more detail on the company’s quarterly earnings call at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time.
Q3 results
Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025, a new quarterly record, with total production at 447,450 units, reflecting inventory drawdown to meet demand surge before tax credit expiry.
Management materials and coverage indicate revenue reached about $28.1 billion, exceeding many previews, while non-GAAP EPS was around 0.50, below year-ago levels as automotive margins remained compressed.
U.S. buyers accelerated purchases ahead of the federal EV tax credit expiration on Sept. 30, boosting Q3 but setting expectations for a potentially softer Q4 demand backdrop, per media and analyst commentary.
Segment performance
Automotive: Record deliveries were led by Model 3/Y at 481,166 deliveries (production 435,826) with “Other Models” at 15,933 deliveries (production 11,624), and about 2% of deliveries under operating lease accounting, pointing to mix and pricing dynamics supporting volume at the expense of margin.
Energy: Storage deployments hit 12.5 GWh, an all-time high, with analysts and coverage noting energy’s role as a stabilizer given higher margins versus automotive during price-competitive periods.
Services/Other: Not detailed numerically in coverage, but typically benefits from fleet growth and software; investors focused more on FSD/AI and energy momentum per previews and media.
Profitability and margins
Third-party coverage highlights earnings pressure despite record revenue, with non-GAAP EPS ~0.50 and commentary that auto gross margins (ex-credits) were likely in the mid-to-high teens, reflecting continued price competition and cost pressures.
The Wall Street Journal noted net income fell about 37% year-over-year, attributing margin compression and one-time demand pull-forward effects tied to tax policy timing, underscoring the near-term profitability challenge.
Consensus previews set expectations around revenue in the mid-to-high $26 billion range and EPS in the mid-0.50s, which Tesla largely met or exceeded on revenue but trailed on profitability, per Electrek and other outlets.
Guidance and outlook themes
Management directed investors to the update letter on the IR site, framing discussion around results and outlook following the tax credit expiration.
Analysts and media emphasized watch items: post-credit demand trajectory, automotive margins, and energy growth durability, with particular attention on how Q4 shapes up after the pull-forward.
Strategic focus remains on AI/FSD and robotaxi initiatives to support long-term valuation; several reports noted investor sensitivity to credible timelines and capability updates in these areas.
Notable context
Tesla confirmed a record quarter for both deliveries and storage deployments, thanking stakeholders and cautioning deliveries and deployments alone are not proxies for full financial performance, with details in the 10-Q to follow.
Investor materials hub lists the Q3 2025 documents and webcast access; several outlets hosted live coverage and recaps of the update letter and call.
Broader coverage connected the quarter’s stock setup to AI narratives and macro/policy dynamics, including the timing around U.S. incentives and investor expectations for autonomy progress
Musk’s earlier warning
In July, CEO Elon Musk cautioned Tesla could face “a few rough quarters” spanning Q4 into the first half of next year as U.S. federal EV tax credits expire and volumes normalize post-pull-forward, a dynamic echoed in Fortune’s reporting on tax-credit-driven demand timing and the risk of a second annual sales decline.
In the last earnings call, Musk reiterated autonomous service coverage could reach about half of the U.S. by year-end pending approvals, even as the current pilot in Austin remains small and supervised; investors are left without concrete milestones.
On AI hardware: Musk previously said Tesla’s next “AI5” inference chip would be so capable it might require performance limits outside the U.S. due to export restrictions, reinforcing the pitch that every Tesla is an AI device even as commercial autonomy metrics remain sparse.
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
Easing trade tensions and a big gain in Apple shares helped drive stocks back toward records on Monday, the start of a heavy week of corporate earnings.
Indexes opened with gains, with some investors saying sentiment was buoyed by President Trump saying he will soon meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Friday comments that he will meet with his Chinese counterpart in person this week.
Silver isn’t only seeing a revival as a fashion trend; it’s also seeing a resurgence with investors. Like the cost of gold, silver prices have been soaring of late, hitting a record $50.13 a troy ounce earlier this week as investors continue to seek out safe-haven assets.
That broke the previous record, $48.70 per troy ounce, which had stood since January 1980—just ahead of the infamous “Silver Thursday” bust. Billionaire brothers William, Nelson, and Lamar Hunt—the latter of whom founded the Kansas City Chiefs—stockpiled an estimated third of the global silver supply over the course of a decade to hedge against the declining value of the dollar. But when regulators stepped in, prices dropped and they failed to make a margin call, sending a panic through the markets and inspiring part of the plot of Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd’s 1983 comedy, Trading Places.
The current surge in silver prices—which have rallied more aggressively than even those of gold—is due to “strong and growing demand for silver, combined with a persistent supply deficit,” says Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
Mining output has been stagnant, especially with the closures of copper mines in Indonesia and South America, Grant tells Vanity Fair. But demand for silver has continued to increase due to its industrial applications and its relative security as an investment “amid sticky inflation, expectations for further Fed easing, geopolitical, trade, and fiscal uncertainty, and a government shutdown.”
The skyrocketing interest in gold may also be a factor: “Silver is often seen as a less expensive safe haven,” Grant says.
Investors in the United States and beyond have been seeking out such safe havens recently—a sign that “investors are preparing” for economic headwinds, as Juan Carlos Artigas, regional CEO (Americas) and global head of research for the World Gold Council, toldVF last month.
That cuts against President Donald Trump’s promise that the US would enter a “golden age” under his watch—and underscores the profound global economic uncertainty he has ushered in with his trade war, which has intensified in the past week amid tensions with China.
Beijing last week announced further restrictions on rare earth exports. In response, Trump threatened to enact a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. Trump appeared to back off the idea, somewhat, after markets responded with a massive sell-off on Friday: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” Trump posted Sunday. But his trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said on Tuesday that a 100% tariff in the coming weeks was still on the table: “A lot depends on what the Chinese do,” Greer told CNBC.
The mixed messages speak to the unpredictability that Trump has injected into the world economy: “The degree of uncertainty is huge,” as London Business School professor Richard Portesput it to TheNew York Times on Tuesday, “and that has consequences for the global economy.”