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Tag: Wall Street

  • U.S. stocks lift on the last day of November as Wall Street eagerly awaits the results of Black Friday | Fortune

    U.S. stocks opened with gains on the final trading day of November.

    The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and needs a slightly larger gain to avoid its first down month since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 138 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%.

    Coinbase Global added 3.6% as bitcoin rose above $92,000 after dropping to around $81,000 last week. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency is still well below its all-time high of around $125,000 set in early October.

    Most tech stocks posted gains, with Meta Platforms rising 1.4% and Micron Technology adding 2.8%. But Nvidia, the market’s most valuable stock, fell 1% and is headed for a double-digit loss for the month. Oracle another high-flyer that struggled this month, fell 2.3%.

    Wall Street is operating on an abbreviated schedule Friday after being closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Stock trading closes at 1 p.m. ET.

    Earlier, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were halted for hours due to a technical issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CME said the problem was tied to an outage at a CyrusOne data center.

    After slumping earlier this month as investors worried that many of the tech stocks that were propelled higher by the frenzy over artificial intelligence, stocks have risen for four straight trading sessions on hopes the Federal Reserve will again cut interest rates at its meeting next month.

    Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have given traders more confidence the central bank will again cut interest rates at its meeting that ends Dec. 10. Traders are betting on a nearly 87% probability that the Fed will cut next month, according to data from CME Group.

    The central bank, which has already cut rates twice this year in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market, is facing an increasingly difficult decision on interest rates as inflation rises and the job market slows. Cutting interest rates further could help support the economy as employment weakens, but it could also fuel inflation. The latest round of corporate earnings reports was mostly positive, but economic data has been mixed.

    The minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting in October indicate there are likely to be strong divisions among policymakers about the Fed’s next step.

    Treasury yields held mostly steady, with the 10-year yield at 4.01%.

    In European trading, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3% as traders awaited inflation data set to be released later in the day.

    Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.3% on gains in energy and mining stocks. The CAC 40 in France also rose 0.2%.

    In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 0.2% higher to 50,253.91, rebounding from losses earlier in the day. Data showed Japan’s housing starts rose 3.2% in October from the same period a year ago, the first annual increase since March. The number defied market expectations of 5.2% decline and reversed a 7.3% drop in September.

    South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.5% after the country’s industrial production fell 4% month-on-month in October, more than the 1.1% decline in September.

    The Associated Press

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  • Wall Street edges higher amid tech gains and renewed hopes of Fed rate cut

    The U.S. stock market rose on Monday, spurred by a jump in tech stocks and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may slash its benchmark interest rate at its December meeting.

    The S&P 500 climbed 108 points, or 1.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points, or 0.6%, as of 2:10 p.m. EDT. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite climbed 2.7%.

    Companies with investments in artificial intelligence saw gains on Monday. Alphabet, which has been getting praise for its newest Gemini AI model, rallied 5.5% and was one of the strongest forces lifting the S&P 500. The jump in tech stocks comes as investors continue to assess the potential of AI-focused businesses, even as questions remain about whether an AI bubble is forming. 

    AI chipmaker Nvidia gained 2.1%. 

    Stocks also rose on renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates for a third straight time at its Dec. 10 meeting. Traders now place the likelihood of a rate cut around nearly 80%, up from 41% on Thursday, according to data from CME FedWatch.

    But Monday’s gains were hesitant, and the S&P 500 rallied to a gain of 1% only to halve it within the first 15 minutes of trading, before picking up momentum again.

    Stocks have been swinging sharply, not just day to day but also hour to hour, in recent weeks as worries weigh about what the Fed will do with interest rates and whether too much money is pouring into AI and creating a bubble. All the uncertainty is creating the biggest test for investors since an April sell-off, when President Donald Trump shocked the world with his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

    Still, despite all the recent fear, the S&P 500 remains within 2.8% of its record set last month.

    Fresh economic data

    Several more tests lie ahead this week for the market, though none loom quite as large as last week’s profit report from Nvidia or the delayed jobs report from the U.S. government for September.

    One of the biggest tests will arrive on Tuesday, when the U.S. government will deliver data showing the inflation rate at the wholesale level in September.

    Economists expect the data to show a 2.6% rise from a year earlier, the same inflation rate as August. A higher-than-expected reading could deter the Fed from cutting its main interest rate in December because lower rates can worsen inflation. Some Fed officials have already argued against a December cut in part because inflation has stubbornly remained above their 2% target.

    Monday’s rally came at the start of an abbreviated trading week. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. A day later, it’s on to the rush of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

    On Wall Street, U.S.-listed shares of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk fell 5.8% Monday after it reported that its Alzheimer’s drug failed to slow progression of the disease in a trial.

    Grindr dropped 9.9% after saying it’s breaking off talks with a couple of investors who had offered to buy the company, which helps its gay users connect. A special committee of the company’s board of directors said it had questions about the financing for the deal by the investors, who collectively own more than 60% of Grindr’s stock.

    Bitcoin, meanwhile, continued its sharp swings. It was sitting near $87,600 after bouncing between $82,000 and $94,000 over the last week. It was near $125,000 last month. The cryptocurrency has shed more than $700 billion in market capitalization since it peaked in early October and is trading at its lowest level since April.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe following a mixed finish in Asia.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2% for one of the world’s biggest moves. It got a boost from a 4.7% leap for Alibaba, which has reported strong demand for its updated Qwen AI app. Alibaba is due to report earnings on Tuesday.

    In the bond market, Treasury yields held relatively steady. The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.04% from 4.06% late Friday.

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  • Bitcoin has shed almost $800 billion since its October peak. What’s behind the plunge?

    Bitcoin continued to slide on Friday, extending a weeks-long slump that has wiped out nearly $800 billion in value since the cryptocurrency hit its 2025 peak last month. The downturn has stripped away all of bitcoin’s gains this year — and raised questions about where it might go from here.

    Since closing at almost $125,000 on Oct. 6, its highest price this year, bitcoin has shed about one-third of its value. On Friday, bitcoin sank below $82,000 before rebounding slightly to $83,509 before noon EDT, according to CoinGecko, a cryptocurrency data aggregator. 

    The cryptocurrency, which is trading at its lowest level since April, is now on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022, when a spate of corporate collapses sparked turbulence in the crypto sector, Bloomberg reported Friday. 

    The precipitous drop comes as Wall Street grapples with unease over whether there’s a bubble in artificial technology and tech stocks, prompting a shift away from assets that are viewed as carrying more risk, analysts say. Investors are also cautious given signs of weakness in the labor market, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next month, with more economists now expecting the Fed to hold off on cutting rates.

    “The future is uncertain. It almost feels like it’s moving back to the question: do I even want to hold [bitcoin] in this environment?” said Thomas Chen, the CEO of cryptocurrency company Function, in an email.

    Why is Bitcoin falling?

    Concerns about an AI bubble can translate into turbulence for cryptocurrencies because tech stocks tend to move in tandem with bitcoin, experts noted.  

    “When tech sneezes, it’s natural to expect Bitcoin to catch a cold,” noted Nic Puckrin, investment analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, in an email.

    Aside from pulling back from riskier assets, some investors may be selling bitcoin to cover margin calls. Coinbase, for example, now offers “perpetual futures,” a product that lets traders use up to 10-to-1 leverage on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

    Leveraged positions can force investors to sell because borrowing amplifies every price move — for both gains and losses. Even a small drop in the underlying asset can lead to an outsized loss on a leveraged trade. But if an asset tumbles and the investor can’t meet the margin requirements, the trading platform may automatically liquidate the position, which leads to more selling and downward pressure on its price.

    “When traders borrow heavily to magnify positions, any reversal triggers liquidations that accelerate the move,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial advisory organization, said in an email.

    Large declines in bitcoin’s price aren’t unusual, and the cryptocurrency has always rebounded, experts noted. 

    Brian Vieten, a research analyst at Siebert Financial, said in a Tuesday email that bitcoin has historically experienced around five corrections of 20-30% or more during bull markets, adding that the issues may represent “temporary headwinds” as some investors could view lower crypto prices as a buying opportunity.

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  • Vans Warped Tour pre-parties, events head to Orlando before fest



    Credit: Vans Warped Tour/Facebook

    Vans Warped Tour is alive again and heading to Orlando’s Camping World Stadium this month to celebrate more than three decades of music. 

    Orlando is one of only three cities hosting the pop-punk extravaganza and 30-year anniversary comeback, and is set to welcome a series of corresponding events leading up to the two-day fest that takes place Saturday and Sunday, Nov. 15 and 16. 

    The Warped Wall-Street Takeover transforms Wall and Court streets into “Warped World” for a four-day bar crawl-style get-together from Nov. 13 to 16.  It’s free to attend and features food trucks dishing out Warped Tour-themed eats, a Warped Pour pop-up bar, trivia nights and a barbecue after the festival’s final shows of the night on Nov. 15 and 16. 

    On the eve of the fest, Warped will partner with Emo Nite to put on a night of nostalgic emo and pop-punk anthems courtesy of a live DJ. The party takes place at the Beacham on Friday, Nov. 14. 

    If you can’t make the Orlando events, the Skate Park of Tampa is also set to host the annual Harvest Jam All Ages Contest — which will serve as a one-stop shop for Warped Tour 2025 merch. 

    Warped Tour kicked off in June in Washington D.C. and touched down in Long Beach, California in July. The Orlando fest wraps up the comeback.

    The musical lineup includes both seasoned Warped Tour performers and new faces, some of which include 3OH3!, A Day to Remember, The Wonder Years, Winona Fighter, Movements, Simple Plan, Bowling for Soup, Pennywise, Miss May I, Dance Hall Crashers, Less Than Jake, Thursday, MGK, Falling in Reverse, Boys Like Girls, Microwave and many, many more.


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    Warped Tour-themed eats, merch, pop-up bars and even more music

    Opener Hellogoodbye set the tone for the night

    *Actually from Chicago, and deffo not cops


    Orlando’s daily dose of what matters. Subscribe to The Daily Weekly.






    Azlyn Cato
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  • Legal expert warns of buy now, pay later plans this holiday shopping season

    DENVER — As you’re out holiday shopping, one legal expert warns to keep an eye out for buy now, pay later (BNPL) plans. With tighter budgets, they can look enticing as they can split large purchases into smaller, more manageable ones over a monthly basis.

    However, the lawyer Denver7 spoke with said BNPL plans can easily rope you into more debt, and there aren’t many protections in place to keep you out of trouble.

    76% of Americans use BNPL plans, 72% of GenZ uses them, and 50% of users have already missed at least one payment, according to LegalShield.

    Rebecca Carter is a principal at the law firm Friedman, Framme & Thrush. Carter told Denver7 she is seeing more people calling her office asking for advice after falling into debt with buy now, pay later plans. She said there’s not much that can be done legally after you’ve signed the terms.

    “It’s not as though [these companies] are doing anything unlawful,” Carter said. “Protection really comes in with spreading education and understanding the potential for penalty. I wish there was more, but [there’s not].”

    Prices for all goods rose 0.3% in September after rising 0.4% in August, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report. It continues a trend of rising inflation amid interest rate cuts aimed at jump-starting a slowing job market.

    It has made holiday shopping budgets tighter this year, so Carter said to be mindful and educate yourself and your kids about these plans.

    “Creditors have an interest in getting paid back,” Carter said. “You have an interest in preserving your credit, you know, and trying to be proactive earlier on.”

    She said it can be easy to find yourself over-spending when you rely on BNPL plans and then finding yourself in credit trouble down the road.

    Denver7 | Your Voice: Get in touch with Dan Grossman

    Denver7 morning anchor Dan Grossman shares stories that have an impact in all of Colorado’s communities, but specializes in covering consumer and economic issues. If you’d like to get in touch with Dan, fill out the form below to send him an email.

    Dan Grossman

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  • The 30-year-old obsessive networker who is dominating a wildly profitable niche on Wall Street known as ‘directs’ | Fortune

    It was August 2023, and Matt Swain had five offers on the table for Triago, the company where he’d recently ascended to CEO. He’d built the mightily profitable franchise in an obscure corner of private equity called “directs”—essentially pairing solidly run businesses that wanted to sell, with family offices looking for outsize returns. Now, suitors comprising top banks from Spain and Korea, a leading U.S. private equity firm, a major Midwestern lender, and a giant Asian trading house were circling. 

    But as Swain weighed the offers, one stood out—from Bob Hotz, chairman of corporate finance and acquisitions chief at mid-market investment banking powerhouse Houlihan Lokey. He felt sure that Houlihan would provide the best home for himself and his team. So he was crushed when an email arrived: “We regrettably will withdraw from considering the purchase of Triago,” wrote Hotz, but noted that “you were the primary reason for our interest,” and graciously suggested they meet for a quick coffee at 9:20 the next morning. 

    Swain didn’t expect much. “I didn’t even wear socks with my loafers. I never wear socks at any casual, inconsequential meeting,” he recalls. “I just wanted to get veteran Bob’s advice on which offer to pick.” At breakfast, the hyperkinetic youngster quizzed the silver-coiffed, soft-spoken Hotz, who’s a half-century his senior. “Given the time limit, I was talking so fast I didn’t even touch my usual avocado toast. I asked Bob: ‘Which one is the right fit?’ And Bob does a total flip, and says, ‘I think we’re the best partner.’” 

    At 11 p.m. on Wednesday, Aug. 30, Hotz called Swain to declare he was in—but only on the condition that Swain leave his house full of guests on Nantucket and fly to London the Sunday of Labor Day weekend for a rapid-fire session of due diligence. Swain agreed and boarded the red-eye to Heathrow toting a bulging roller suitcase packed full of financials. By the following Friday, Houlihan Lokey had clinched the whirlwind purchase, reportedly for well over $100 million.

    The marriage created a force to watch on Wall Street, between a whiz kid with a knack for dealmaking, and the giant mid-tier investment bank you’ve probably never heard of. In his early twenties, even before joining Triago, Swain beat the Wall Street pros in recognizing that the burgeoning wealth of family offices meant there was high interest in purchasing individual companies, rather than investing in “blind pools” of enterprises assembled by the private equity (PE) giants. 

    The founders of those family offices had often built and sold their own companies, and they and their heirs relished “kicking the tires,” instead of having a Carlyle or TPG decide for them. To satisfy that appetite among the super-wealthy, Swain developed a wide network of venturesome “independent sponsors,” operators that obtained letters of intent to purchase private, midsize businesses that did everything from making routine airplane parts to marketing Disney-branded souvenirs at a predetermined price. 

    That process where investors cherry-pick their own deals rather than, say, joining fund No. 7 of a PE colossus, is called “directs.” It’s existed for decades, but in his five years at Triago, Swain has proved the prime mover in taking the sector from backwater to big business, and became king of the realm. By Fortune’s estimates, drawn from industry data, the value of all direct deals, using the broad definition of single investments in private companies, will explode to something like $200 billion this year, multiple the number several years ago.

    Still, “directs” have a way to go before they pose any sort of real threat to the PE giants. Though Swain has big plans, there has yet to be mass adoption by the traditional stalwarts of PE—the big pension funds, insurers, and endowments. Those huge institutions still overwhelmingly choose pools, where they can put tons of money to work quickly without specialized teams needed to parse these bespoke deals. Meanwhile success attracts competition—and Swain’s fat returns (garnered by buying and fixing cheap, overlooked, small and midsize companies) are attracting more and more competitors, a trend that could hike prices and reduce profits.

    But no challenges seem to faze Swain, who has developed a vast Rolodex featuring the investment arms for the clans of late real estate magnate Sam Zell and ambassador to the U.K. Warren Stephens, plus the Romneys and Bloombergs, among a panoply of luminary names. He proved an expert at curating a cast of top sponsors and identifying the investments that promised—and a few years later delivered—big, PE-beating returns. “Pre-Matt, we had to find the independent sponsors, and it was difficult,” says Duran Curis, founding partner at Ocean Avenue Capital Partners, who manages a $2 billion portfolio of 140 directs. “His big contribution is that he finds them for us, and presents the best opportunities.” Now, paired with the muscle of Houlihan Lokey, Swain has big plans to start selling to pension funds, endowments, and asset managers.

    Adds David Feierstein, cofounder of Ronin Equity Partners, an investment firm for which Swain’s raised several hundred million dollars to fund half a dozen purchases, “If you didn’t have someone as aggressive and charismatic as Matt, the directs industry wouldn’t be nearly where it is today. Matt had the first mover advantage. In directs, Matt runs the show.” 

    The charm offensive

    There’s something rare about Swain, who is a young brainiac, but one who has built his business the old-fashioned, pre-quant-trading and Excel models Wall Street way, via charm offensives that weave webs of tight relationships few rivals can match. It’s remarkable that this super-hustler comes from a highly privileged background. He grew up in Greenwich, Conn., son of the CFO of a prominent hedge fund. His ancestors were the original owners of Nantucket island. “Matt tells me his family had been coming to Nantucket for generations. So we’re walking to get coffee and we pass Swain Street, then Swain House, then we go to the Whaling Museum and get greeted by half a dozen portraits of his forbears,” says Rupert Edis, CEO of the Landon family office that includes Landon Capital Partners, a long-standing investor in Swain’s directs.

    After graduating from Colgate University, where he served as student body president and starred in squash—he’s still one of the best amateur players in Manhattan—Swain joined Stifel, in a “placement agent” unit that raised money for hedge funds. The managers were amazed that family offices weren’t returning their calls, so they assigned Swain to find takers from a “dead list” of 1,000 mostly wealthy clans. The green recruit got mostly noes, upbraidings, and even a “You’re a midget!” from the respondents who didn’t hang up, but he also learned there was a gap in the market. 

    Swain played matchmaker. He found that independent sponsor IVEST needed funding for a plush toy purveyor called Dan Dee, and brought their leaders to Solamere, the family office representing the Romneys, former Walmart CEO Lee Scott, and other wealthy investors. Swain raised $100 million to notch the purchase. By 2018, he found a spot that was just small and daring enough to take a flier on his vision of building a whole business around directs: Triago, the firm founded by Frenchman Antoine Dréan that did a thriving trade in a close cousin, finding buyers for limited partners (LPs) that sought to sell their stakes in private equity pools. 

    Swain quickly turned directs into Triago’s profit driver. Over three years, he raised $3 billion in equity capital for 35 deals that, including debt, backed over $10 billion in purchases. In April 2022, Dréan named his 27-year old comer as CEO. 

    While Big PE typically delivers twofold returns to investors over a longer holding period, directs aim far higher. “Our investors are looking for returns of 3x or more,” says Patrick Zyla, managing director of Castle Harlan, a firm that Swain has worked with extensively.  

    Regular PE funds famously charge around 2% a year on all investors’ funds, whether or not they’ve been put to work yet. The directs sponsors typically don’t charge any fees at all, and even better, don’t get paid unless they deliver big-time. The industry’s giants usually get a fixed “carry” of 20% of profits when companies are sold. But directs deals are usually structured so that the sponsors garner zip until they hit a 2x bogey. Over that number, they start collecting 20%, but their take accelerates sharply with each multiple of their investors’ stake they return. If the sponsor-managers hit 5x, they can pocket as much as 40% of the gain.  

    “If you didn’t have someone as aggressive and charismatic as Matt, the directs industry wouldn’t be nearly where it is today.”David Feierstein, cofounder of Ronin Equity Partners

    Sam Zell, who along with his team funded a number of Swain’s deals, absolutely loved this ultra-“skin in the game” aspect of directs. (Swain relates that Zell liked having his photo snapped alongside the youngster, as Swain was only slightly taller than the late bantam tycoon.) Zell and the president of the Zell family office EGI, Mark Sotir, would push Swain to arrange transactions that raised the bar for capturing a share of the profits, but gave the management teams an even bigger score for fabulous results. 

    That makes Houlihan Lokey’s pitch particularly appealing right now, given that PE has seen a sharp drop-off in exits: According to Hamilton Lane, a firm that invests on behalf of pension funds, as of 2021 PE firms were still holding 45% of their buyout deals five years following their purchase; last year, around 65% were still sitting unsold after a half-decade. 

    Meanwhile Swain’s model thrives on speed. With directs, the money comes fast, and so do the fees. It typically takes placement agents working on behalf of PE firms nine to 18 months to raise a full fund. But once the Swain gang gets a mandate from a sponsor, he and his bankers regularly make the rounds and secure the funding in eight to nine weeks. His team of 40 also concentrates on bigger and bigger deals that swell their take from the average directs transaction. This year, he expects to do around a dozen deals at an average enterprise value of $200 million to $400 million. “That’s much, much bigger than the average in the industry,” he avows. “We’re now working on one worth $2 billion, and the numbers will keep climbing.”

    That expanded holding time, and LP thirst for liquidity, should especially benefit the first field where Swain and Houlihan Lokey envisage big expansion beyond traditional directs: so-called continuation vehicles, or CVs, where a fund tags an outstanding company promising great things, and doesn’t want to sell as it exits the other holdings. Today, Evercore is the biggest player, but Houlihan is rising. CVs cash out most of the existing LPs in that star “keeper” at a good return, and replace them with a fresh crop that sees big gains ahead by keeping and growing the standout for another, say, three or four years. The company spins off from the fund and continues as a stand-alone. The newcomers are once again going “direct” since they’re shopping on a deal-by-deal basis. 

    The second offshoot is what’s known as “co-investment.” PE firms increasingly seek to raise money beyond what the original investors contributed to a given fund. Say the managers see a software provider on the block at a bargain price, and want to add it to a tech portfolio. Or the “concentration limit” on any one purchase is $300 million, and they’d hate to miss out on a perfect fit at $450 million. Or the goal may be clinching a big add-on acquisition, or satisfying an unforeseen surge in sales by constructing new plants. In all those cases, the fund may lack the capital for seizing the opportunity. It may have $300 million still in its coffers and need a couple of hundred million more.

    Swain and the Houlihan Lokey team view the area, still in its infancy, as a huge field for lucrative fundraising and investment-banking business. It’s a good deal for the fund LPs because they pay no fee or carry on the additional capital. The new investors pay carry at a rate that’s closely tied to performance: The percentage starts low and rises depending on the level of profit achieved. The arrangement empowers the co-investors to pick and choose their own individual deals, the great lure of directs in general.   

    Instead of coming from the small sponsors that Swain has mainly represented in the past, these opportunities are flowing from big, established PE outfits that have run these candidates for years, and can show impressive track records, both for the co-invest property and the firm’s overall performance. That imprimatur greatly heightens their appeal.

    “A commercial thought every minute of every day”

     At Houlihan Lokey, Swain persists in the headlong roundelay of networking that’s his calling card. He does most of his business in a five-block radius of Midtown Manhattan. He resides in a Moorish-themed, Park Avenue high-rise, where he rents an apartment from Eric Trump; Ivanka Trump is his neighbor. Swain does his primary dealmaking at two nearby eateries, tony French venue Le Bilboquet and the LoewsRegency Bar & Grill. “I do back to back breakfasts at Loews, then a lunch at Bilboquet,” he avows. “Then in the evening it’s three chapters. First a cocktail at Bilboquet, then a real dinner, then an elongated catch-up over drinks. Before I hit 30, it would stop at midnight. Now that I’m 30, it’s over by 11:00 or midnight.” In the interests of efficiency, Swain changes tables when the new guest arrives, even if the old guest is still sitting there. Notes Tom Burchill, managing partner of PE firm Seven Point: “He bounces from one pole to another. Once, I got him for 45 minutes at Bilboquet. Lucky me.” When on Nantucket, Swain zooms around the island in a hard-bottom, Navy SEAL–style, super-high-speed raft, a type deployed by the military in Ukraine. He had it imported, and the money went to a manufacturer looking to support jobs in the beleaguered nation.

    His business associates view him as both blithely charming and, in a word, obsessed. “Matt thinks a commercial thought every minute of every day,” observes Hotz, whom Swain reveres as “Uncle Bob.”  Adds Mike DiPiano, managing general partner at tech PE firm NewSpring Capital: “He’s a young man selling at all times.” His ability to attract top older notables is remarkable. “He’s got this old soul for a young guy, and it’s infectious,” says Kevin Wilcox of the Stephens family office. Edis, of the Landon family office, praises Swain’s knack for “attracting powerful mentors and allies” and calls his ability to accomplish tasks in a jiffy as “Napoleonic”—at 5-foot-8, by the way, Swain is midsize, like the companies he markets.

    Though Houlihan Lokey bought Triago 18 months ago, each side is already bringing the other big benefits. It’s astounding that the firm is so little known. Houlihan ranks as the world’s largest investment bank for midsize private companies. It’s also been the top performer on Wall Street for rewarding investors over the past decade, and by a lot. In that span, it’s delivered total shareholder returns of 26.4% a year, beating such fellow boutiques as Lazard (5.9%), Jefferies (13.2%), Moelis (17.2%), and Evercore (22%), while also waxing big guys Citigroup (9.3%), Bank of America (14.5%), Goldman Sachs (18.0%), Morgan Stanley (19.9%), and J.P. Morgan (20.3%). Back in the fall of 2015, Houlihan’s market cap trailed those of Jefferies, Lazard, and Evercore. Now at $13.6 billion, it’s bigger than all three.

    A major plus in terms of the synergy at the newly combined company: the directs investment, fund investment, CVs, and co-investments originating from Houlihan Lokey’s PE clients. In 2023 Atlas Merchant Capital, a combined hedge and PE fund headed by former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond, worked with Houlihan as its advisor to MarshBerry, in a significant fund investment for that leading platform in the insurance brokerage space. Diamond is a Swain fan and was one of the Triago bidders. Now that Swain has joined Houlihan, Diamond is giving the firm business on both the fund investment and directs sides; he’s recently engaged the Swain team on securing follow-on capital for Atlas portfolio companies.

    The CV connection is also spouting advisory fees for Houlihan Lokey. Last October, Swain raised the money for PE fund NewSpring, renowned for scoring big from buying Nutrisystem in the 2000s, for a vehicle that combined two of its star portfolio holdings. “You realize that if you could just hold these investments longer you’ll get much more out of them,” says cofounder DiPiano. Over sundry phone calls, Houlihan provided investment banking guidance to the family office investors, parsing the transactions’ pros and cons. 

    In co-invests, Riverside, a $14 billion PE firm that had been a Houlihan Lokey client for years but never worked with Triago, was seeking additional co-investment equity as a way to attract new limited partners and close on two fresh investments. Via the Houlihan connection, in stepped the Swain team. “We were introduced to dozens of LPs in short order, and secured investments from a number of them,” says Peggy Roberts, a managing partner at the firm. “Partnering with Houlihan has helped us forge sustained relationships with firms we would not have met otherwise.”

    In the past nine months, Houlihan has raised over $500 million to secure three purchases for Swain’s stalwart customer Ronin. In June, the Swain contingent provided Ronin the funding to buy a company that repairs and overhauls systems for commercial aircraft. Houlihan conducted analysis on behalf of the family office investors. In April, Landon Capital Partners (LCP) scored a big hit via the sale of its portfolio holding, Wisconsin cheesemaker Heartisan Foods, where it partnered with Ronin on a deal in which Triago had raised the money. Through the Swain link, LCP has awarded Houlihan two mandates, one for a debt financing of a portfolio company, and another to explore a sale.

    Early this year, the directs franchise collected $75 million in equity and debt for Seven Point to buy Frazier Aviation, producer of structural parts for military aircraft. Now, Seven Point is strongly considering Houlihan Lokey to provide the mark-to-market valuation analysis of its portfolio holdings to deliver to investors. 

    The rewards also go the other way. Liberty Hall, a PE sponsor focused exclusively on aerospace and defense, is a long-standing Houlihan Lokey client, and had hired Triago before the acquisition to lead a CV. The tie-up has further deepened its Houlihan relationship. Liberty Hall hired Houlihan to raise the capital for a classic direct that closed earlier this year. Between the CV and direct, Houlihan secured $250 million for Liberty. It’s also working with the Houlihan M&A group to seek new purchases.   

    Edis, chief of the Landon family office and a protégé of its founder, the late swashbuckling billionaire Timothy Landon, who’s legendary as the chief political advisor to his military school chum, the sultan of Oman, notes that Swain gives Houlihan Lokey an extra edge. “Matt’s been crucial in upselling Houlihan’s other services. As investments move through their life cycle, they need M&A, debt refinancing, and finding buyers for the final sale, and the natural thing for one of Matt’s companies is for Houlihan to take on that work,” says Edis. “We’re doing a new refi with Houlihan because of the cycle that began with Matt.”

    In April 2025, the firm promoted Swain as co-head of its equity capital solutions group. The unit encompasses both the equity and debt fundraising franchises; according to sources on Wall Street the group generates $400 million to $500 million a year in revenue—that’s as much as a quarter of the $2.4 billion the firm posted in fiscal year 2025, ended in March. 

    Swain’s section is highly lucrative. From industry sources, Fortune estimates that at an annual run rate, the three directs areas combined—the traditional variety, CVs, and co-invests—are raising well over $5 billion a year. From studying this highly fragmented industry, Fortune concludes that Houlihan Lokey leads the field in combined classic directs and CVs; in directs alone, it holds a market share of around 10%. 

    For Swain, the rise of directs presages nothing less than a revolution in the world’s financial markets. “In the future, more and more institutional investors like pension funds and endowments will follow the family offices in buying individual companies, just as investors pick stocks. Instead of investing in a pool, they’ll invest directly into a company’s equity,” he declares. “In other words, directs will make the private market for companies much more liquid so that it looks like the public market for stocks.” Swain predicts that within a decade, the total size of the three classes of directs will be attracting the same annual volume of new funds as traditional PE commands today.

    “In the future, directs will make the private market for companies much more liquid so that it looks like the public market for stocks.”Matt Swain

    Already the Ventura County Employees’ Retirement Association is launching a program that will spend up to $20 million on directs co-investment this year, and the Texas Municipal Retirement System plans to dedicate as much as $15 billion over the next five years, adding extra growth capital to individual holdings in PE funds. “The large pension funds are migrating to smaller managers in the lower-middle-market and middle-market space because that’s where they’re seeing the highest returns,” says a leading investment advisor to the PE industry.

    Swain’s PE customers praise his analytical skills in identifying the most promising deals. “He did intense due diligence on the Frazier Aviation deal, where we’re sponsor,” recalls Burchill of Seven Point. “When Matt goes in front of investors and says it will be good, they listen to him. His credibility helped give us our choice of investors.”

    The golden child has developed his own highly original approach in trawling for profit—even on the streets of Manhattan, where you’ll never find him inside a taxi. “No matter how hot or cold it may be, Matt will say, ‘Let’s walk. It’s better for networking,’” marvels Hotz. One day in September, this writer joined Swain on one of his excursions down Park Avenue, and on cue, he ran into Jack Oliver, who heads the PE firm Finback, alongside former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Two of the most outsize personas in private equity held their own little curbside summit, rapping on how they might connect on deals. I later asked the super-personable Oliver whether he or Swain is the more magnetic presence. Riposted Oliver: “I’d have to say I have the bigger personality. But he’s more successful.” One thing’s for sure, in a business that thrives on relationships, Swain will never stop working the room, the block, the island, the world, to bring deep-pocketed investors into his own corner of Wall Street.

    Shawn Tully

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  • The stock market is breaking records. Time for a gut check

    NEW YORK (AP) — Almost everything in your 401(k) should be coming up a winner now. That makes it time for a gut check.

    Not only is the U.S. stock market setting records, so are foreign stocks. Bond funds, which are supposed to be the boring and safe part of any portfolio, are also doing well this year, along with gold and cryptocurrencies.

    Many professionals along Wall Street are forecasting that the U.S. stock market will keep rising. But the threat of a sharp drop remains, as it always does. That leaves investors with the luxury now, while prices are high, to reassess. Don’t get lulled into leaving your 401(k) on autopilot, unless you’re intentionally doing so, and make sure your portfolio isn’t stuffed with too much risk.

    Here are some things to keep in mind:

    The stock market is doing well?

    Even after a few recent stumbles, the S&P 500 has soared more than 35% from its low point in April, shortly after “Liberation Day.”

    “The market continues to (hit) record highs on the back of strong earnings and easing U.S.–China trade tensions,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, who calls the current state of “steady growth without irrational exuberance” a ”Goldilocks environment.”

    If the market’s so great, why should I worry?

    You don’t need to worry at the moment, but remember that the stock market will fall eventually. It always does.

    The S&P 500 index, which sits at the heart of many 401(k) accounts, has forced investors to swallow a 10% drop every couple of years or so, on average. That’s what Wall Street calls a “correction,” and professional investors see them as ways to clear out excessive optimism that may have pushed prices too high. More serious drops of at least 20%, which Wall Street calls “bear markets,” are less common but can last for years.

    Back in April, the S&P 500 index plunged nearly 20% from its record at the time. But the market came back, propelled by the big tech companies that have led the way the last few years.

    What could trip up the market?

    The stock market has charged to records because investors are expecting several important things to happen. If any fail to pan out, it would undercut the market.

    Chief among those expectations is that big U.S. companies will continue to deliver big growth in profits. That’s one of the few ways they can justify the jumps in their stock prices and quiet criticism that they’ve become too expensive. One popular measure of valuing stocks, which looks at corporate profits over the preceding 10 years, showed the S&P 500 recently was near its most expensive level since the 2000 dot-com bubble.

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  • Meet the billionaire couple who not only signed The Giving Pledge but actually delivered—donating nearly half their fortune while still alive | Fortune

    The Giving Pledge was designed to hold the world’s richest people accountable for donating at least half their fortunes in their lifetimes or wills–but so far, only John and Laura Arnold have actually done it.

    From well-known Wall Street energy trader to philanthropist, John Arnold began his career trading natural gas at Enron and later ran a hedge fund, Centaurus Partners. By 2012, he had retired and fully pivoted to philanthropy at 38 years old. 

    The Arnolds have donated over $2 billion to date, and more than $204 million in 2024, according to Forbes. Currently, their net worth is around $2.9 billion, meaning their donations amount to about 42 percent of their wealth. 

    In addition, John Arnold has a Forbes philanthropy score of 5 out of 5. The score is based on those who have donated more than 20% of their wealth. 

    Since launching their foundation, “Arnold Ventures,” in 2008, their philanthropic efforts have expanded to 150 employees across offices in New York City, Washington, D.C., and Houston. 

    How the Arnolds donate 

    John and Laura Arnolds’ approach to giving is data-driven, aiming to deliver real, measurable results from what they offer, and has been fundamentally focused on research. Their efforts include a variety of public policy issues, including health care, higher education, criminal justice, infrastructure, and more. 

    Emphasizing research and measurable outcomes, their philanthropy also reflects a broader belief that wealth should be used in real time—not preserved for future generations. In fact, John Arnold has previously noted that The Arnolds will not have a legacy foundation after their deaths.

    Most recently, “Arnold Ventures” joined the American Institute for Boys and Men to issue a call for new research on the long-term consequences of online sports betting as states continue to legalize the practice. 

    The Giving Pledge

    Launched in 2010 by Bill and Melinda French Gates and Warren Buffett, the Giving Pledge invites the world’s wealthiest individuals and families to publicly commit to giving away at least 50% of their wealth to philanthropy, either during their lifetimes or in their wills. 

    Some of the signers include Bezos’s ex-wife MacKenzie Scott (but not Jeff Bezos), Michael Bloomberg, Elon Musk, George Lucas, and Mark Zuckerberg.

    Despite hundreds of billionaires signing the Giving Pledge, they haven’t necessarily followed through. The pledge is a moral commitment rather than a legally binding contract—participants sign an open letter explaining their reasons for giving. They can choose which causes and charities to support.

    The Institute for Policy Studies’ 2025 report, The Giving Pledge at 15, highlights that Laura and John were the only participants technically in compliance with the pledge since signing in 2010. 

    “The Arnolds should be commended, they’ve boldly decided to give and to study how philanthropy can actually move money out the door instead of sequestering wealth. They’re among the most significant players in the Giving Pledge class when it comes to pushing real charity reform,” report co-author Bella DeVaan told Fortune in an interview.

    Among the 22 deceased U.S. Pledgers, only eight met their pledge before death—just one, Chuck Feeney, gave away his entire fortune while alive. 

    Furthermore, of the original 57 U.S. signers in 2010, 32 remain billionaires, with their net worth increasing by almost 300% since signing. Only 11 of the original group are no longer billionaires—but it’s mainly because their net worth dropped, not because they gave it away.

    “Wealth is accumulating incredibly quickly for the wealthiest people in America,” DeVaan added. The Giving Pledge is one of the few public commitments they make in lieu of stronger federal regulation or taxation—so its fulfillment is really important.” 

    John Arnold recently defended The Giving Pledge on X following a Fortune report about Peter Thiel saying he encouraged Elon Musk to abandon it due to concerns that his wealth would be donated to “left-wing nonprofits.”

    “The multitude of billion-dollar fortunes, whether in the 1s, 10s, or 100s, have the potential to be put to enormous benefit,” Arnold wrote. “I won’t offer unsolicited advice as to what I think someone should do with their money. I’d only suggest that figuring out what to do with it in a productive fashion can be as important as trying to make more.” 

    Jessica Coacci

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  • With $1 trillion pay package on the line, Elon Musk blasts influential firms telling shareholders to reject it: ‘Those guys are corporate terrorists’ | Fortune

    Elon Musk stole the show in the final minutes of Tesla’s Wednesday earnings call to label the advisory firms pushing shareholders to reject his $1 trillion pay package “corporate terrorists.”

    After months of being relatively quiet following his resignation from the Department of Government Efficiency and subsequent fallout with President Donald Trump, Musk slammed proxy advisory firms Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis.

    “I just don’t feel comfortable building a robot army here and then being ousted because of some asinine recommendations from ISS and Glass Lewis, who have no freaking clue,” Musk said. “I mean, those guys are corporate terrorists.”

    Musk, in a separate X post on Wednesday, also called into question the role of proxy advisory firms generally. The Tesla CEO echoed criticism from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood by saying these firms—which issue recommendations to shareholders for how they should vote on proposals at public companies’ annual shareholder meetings—have too much sway, especially with passive investors like index funds, which have substantial voting power because of the shares they hold for clients.

    “ISS and Glass Lewis have no actual ownership themselves and often vote along random political lines unrelated to shareholder interests! This is a major problem that is not just limited to Tesla,” Musk wrote on X.

    However, advisory firms do not vote directly in annual shareholder meetings and merely recommend positions that are also individually analyzed by some of the biggest institutional investors, including BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which do their own in-house research. Both ISS and Glass Lewis twice recommended voters reject Musk’s previous 2018 pay package. Shareholders ultimately approved the package twice.

    A spokesperson for Glass Lewis told Fortune in a statement its job is to provide analysis and recommendations to its clients. 

    “Those that are Tesla shareholders will ultimately make their own decisions about Mr. Musk’s pay proposal and the Board directors that put it forward for shareholder vote,” the statement read.

    ISS declined to comment. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    Musk, who has a net worth of $455 billion, said he needs an ownership stake “in the mid-20s approximately” to achieve his goals at Tesla. The pay package in question would give Musk about $1 trillion over 10 years if he meets performance metrics, one of which includes boosting the company’s market cap more than 500% to $8.5 trillion. 

    ISS and Glass Lewis both issued reports earlier this month questioning Musk’s pay package, in part because of the package’s size and because it would dilute existing shareholders’ holdings. 

    While Tesla claimed regular benchmarking doesn’t apply to Musk’s pay, because no other company has “remotely similar goals embodied in their compensation programs,” Glass Lewis wrote in its report that Musk’s 2025 performance award is “unprecedented” compared with that of other public companies, and around 33.5x larger than its predecessor from 2018.

    “It is clear that the quantum, on a realizable and granted basis, outpaces all other pay packages.”

    Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

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  • Tesla reports record sales, record storage—but profit slips as tax-credit rush pulls demand forward | Fortune

    Tesla’s Q3 2025 update reports record vehicle deliveries and record energy storage deployments, alongside higher revenue, but earnings pressure persisted due to margin headwinds and a likely pull-forward of demand before U.S. EV tax credits expired in September.

    ​Shares dipped about 1.4% in after-hours trading as investors appeared to brace for softer demand through the remainder of the year.

    CEO Elon Musk is expected to give more detail on the company’s quarterly earnings call at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time.

    Q3 results

    Segment performance

    Profitability and margins

    Guidance and outlook themes

    Notable context

    Musk’s earlier warning

    For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

    Ashley Lutz

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  • Apple, Trade Thaw Lift Stocks Toward New Highs

    Easing trade tensions and a big gain in Apple shares helped drive stocks back toward records on Monday, the start of a heavy week of corporate earnings.

    Indexes opened with gains, with some investors saying sentiment was buoyed by President Trump saying he will soon meet with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Friday comments that he will meet with his Chinese counterpart in person this week. 

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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  • Silver Is Having a “Trading Places” Moment in the Shutdown Economy

    Silver isn’t only seeing a revival as a fashion trend; it’s also seeing a resurgence with investors. Like the cost of gold, silver prices have been soaring of late, hitting a record $50.13 a troy ounce earlier this week as investors continue to seek out safe-haven assets.

    That broke the previous record, $48.70 per troy ounce, which had stood since January 1980—just ahead of the infamous “Silver Thursday” bust. Billionaire brothers William, Nelson, and Lamar Hunt—the latter of whom founded the Kansas City Chiefs—stockpiled an estimated third of the global silver supply over the course of a decade to hedge against the declining value of the dollar. But when regulators stepped in, prices dropped and they failed to make a margin call, sending a panic through the markets and inspiring part of the plot of Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd’s 1983 comedy, Trading Places.

    The current surge in silver prices—which have rallied more aggressively than even those of gold—is due to “strong and growing demand for silver, combined with a persistent supply deficit,” says Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

    Mining output has been stagnant, especially with the closures of copper mines in Indonesia and South America, Grant tells Vanity Fair. But demand for silver has continued to increase due to its industrial applications and its relative security as an investment “amid sticky inflation, expectations for further Fed easing, geopolitical, trade, and fiscal uncertainty, and a government shutdown.”

    The skyrocketing interest in gold may also be a factor: “Silver is often seen as a less expensive safe haven,” Grant says.

    Investors in the United States and beyond have been seeking out such safe havens recently—a sign that “investors are preparing” for economic headwinds, as Juan Carlos Artigas, regional CEO (Americas) and global head of research for the World Gold Council, told VF last month.

    That cuts against President Donald Trump’s promise that the US would enter a “golden age” under his watch—and underscores the profound global economic uncertainty he has ushered in with his trade war, which has intensified in the past week amid tensions with China.

    Beijing last week announced further restrictions on rare earth exports. In response, Trump threatened to enact a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. Trump appeared to back off the idea, somewhat, after markets responded with a massive sell-off on Friday: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” Trump posted Sunday. But his trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said on Tuesday that a 100% tariff in the coming weeks was still on the table: “A lot depends on what the Chinese do,” Greer told CNBC.

    The mixed messages speak to the unpredictability that Trump has injected into the world economy: “The degree of uncertainty is huge,” as London Business School professor Richard Portes put it to The New York Times on Tuesday, “and that has consequences for the global economy.”

    Eric Lutz

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  • Meet the MemeCoin Traders Risking Everything to Retire Their “Whole Bloodline”

    Attention has always been valuable but difficult to price. A blue check on Instagram promises credibility; a large follower count or a viral moment can open a world of opportunity. Attract as many eyeballs as you like, but there was never any way to cash in on the gaze itself. “So it’s just the next phase,” says Bark, a crypto influencer who, according to a woman who knows him, is running what amounts to “a full-blown cult” on X. (“Anything he tells his audience to do, they’ll do,” she says. “You make people money, they’ll worship you.”)

    “Having clout and followers and blue check marks had value, but there was no way you could put a dollar on it,” Bark continues. “Now we’re putting a dollar on it.”

    This may be why people who spend most of their time making products that live on the internet are drawn to the world of crypto, where even micro-influencers can create tokens tied to their online popularity.

    One such influencer is a guy called Fluffy, who, when I met him at Meme House LA, gave the impression of an ebullient, larger-than-life Nintendo Mario, dressed in red-and-white-striped overalls and a red cap. Fluffy has his own meme coin, which, he says, “is so stressful because my face is on it. If this coin goes bad, it ruins my whole persona in Web3.” When Fluffy starred in a commercial for a crypto company called Bullpen earlier this year, his token’s total value increased from $28,000 to $40,000 because, as he puts it, “people saw me as the commercial, they saw that I was actually putting in work trying to entertain the world, which correlated to the token getting bought, and that makes me feel good.”

    There is an annoying problem with the nature of attention, however. It tends to alight on the collective imagination with seemingly capricious randomness. But what if you could control where attention was headed next? This, in the view of Amy Street, a former kindergarten teacher who became a crypto influencer after flipping two NFTs for a combined $18,000, is the current trajectory. “I’m not in control of whether or not Elon Musk uses the phrase DOGE over and over again or if Labubus are cool in two months,” she says. “But I do control if I’m gonna get a tattoo of an eggplant on my stomach. And if there is money on the line, people are gonna do some crazy stuff. Bull runs create hunger for money, and people do crazy things and put up a lot of money.”

    That comment about the eggplant tattoo is something Street picked up from a crypto company she’s working with called Dare Market, which has yet to launch. The idea is in the name: a market of dares where people pay bounties that others cash in on by recording themselves performing crowdsourced challenges. These dares, according to the company’s founder, Isla Rose Perfito, a bubbly blond 29-year-old living in New York, could include things like breaking into a Scientology center, moving into a McDonald’s for 24 hours, and getting people to streak at the Super Bowl. “The goal,” says Perfito, “is to break the internet. It’s like Black Mirror/Jackass coded but still super relatable. It’ll give you the feeling that you can change the world and the adrenaline rush of driving a fast car.”

    Zoë Bernard

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  • Andrew Ross Sorkin on worrying similarities between Wall Street today and 1929’s pre-crash market

    After nearly a decade spent studying the most famous stock market crash in history, financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin warns that the Wall Street of today echoes the market of 1929, when highs preceded a massive slump, leading to the Great Depression.

    Artificial intelligence and technology have contributed to a remarkable boom in recent years. But, Sorkin said, today’s economy is being propped up by the AI boom, and it’s too soon to tell if this is a sugar rush, a short-term and unsustainable boost to the markets. But, Sorkin is positive there’s a crash coming.

    “I just can’t tell you when, and I can’t tell you how deep,” he said. “But I can assure you, unfortunately, I wish I wasn’t saying this, we will have a crash.”

    The Roaring ’20s

    Despite a tumble this Friday, stocks on Wall Street have shot up in recent months. Still, some investors are getting weak in the knees, fearing stocks are overheated. Sorkin, author of “1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History – and How It Shattered a Nation,” out Oct. 14, says the U.S. is in a new roaring 20s, the 2020s, with stocks pushing to record highs, just as they were in the 1920s. 

    Market highs today have him feeling anxious.

    “I’m anxious that we are at prices that may not feel sustainable. And what I don’t know is we are either living through some kind of remarkable boom and part of that’s artificial intelligence and technology, and all of that, or everything’s overpriced,” he said. 

    Andrew Ross Sorkin and Lesley Stahl at the NYSE

    60 Minutes


    The market of 1929 was fueled by rampant speculation, including by ordinary investors unaware of the mounting risks, and of heavy borrowing. People of modest means were lured by Wall Street bankers and other stock market touts to invest using what was then a newfangled concept: credit. It was called buying on a margin. You only had to put down 10% of the stock price, borrowing the rest from your banker. 

    Before 1919, most people did not take on credit or debt, influenced by religious views and moral norms against borrowing money, Sorkin said. That changed when General Motors, in 1919, started lending people money so they could afford to buy the company’s cars. It changed out Americans shopped.

    “And then the bankers realize what’s happening, and they realize that they can lend out money so that more folks can buy stocks. It was all sort of wrapped in the flag of democratizing access,” Sorkin said. “And in good times, when the stock is going up, it’s like free money. In bad times, you’re on the hook, and you’re on the hook in a very bad way.”

    Today, it’s hundreds of billions being invested in AI, with some investment pros warning of a possible bubble as stocks soar to stratospheric heights even amid significant economic uncertainty, such as Friday’s slide after President Trump  threatened more China tariffs.

    “I think it’s hard to say we’re not in a bubble of some sort,” Sorkin said. “The question is always when is the bubble going to pop?”

    Protecting consumers in the market

    When things got out of control in 1929, frightened traders dumped stocks as investors lost their businesses and homes. In the years since, laws, regulations and agencies have been put in place to protect investors.

    Some of those barriers to prevent exploitation are now coming down, Sorkin said. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rules have become less stringent and “the Consumer Protection Bureau practically doesn’t exist anymore.”

    “That’s what concerns me,” Sorkin said. “It’s not that we’re going off a cliff tomorrow. It’s that there’s speculation in the market today, there’s an increasing amount of debt in the market today, and all of that’s happening against the backdrop of the guardrails coming off.”

    Those guardrails include ones that allow only the wealthy to invest directly in private companies that have fewer regulations, like AI startups before they go public.

    In recent decades, people who could invest in private equity and venture capital outperformed investors who did not. Those kinds of assets, generally restricted to wealthy investors, are potentially more rewarding, but also riskier.

    “Public companies, after the SEC was created, were required to have all sorts of disclosure rules so that the public could understand what’s going on inside them. Private companies don’t have that,” Sorkin said. “But historically, the average ordinary American wasn’t really allowed to invest in the private companies. But in this flag of democratizing finance, there’s a lot of people who want access to that.”

    Some people feel elite investors have better access, while others are unable to get in early on opportunities, Sorkin said. There’s been a push by both the Trump administration and the financial sector to open up the market to more people.

    But that would also require moving the guardrails designed to protect people. 

    “They have protected a lot of people, but some people would say they protected people from getting rich,” Sorkin said. 

    Push today for democratizing investing 

    In his latest annual letter to investors, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggested opening retirement 401(k)s to riskier private investments in the name of democratizing investing. He said there were opportunities for investing in AI or data centers. 

    Right now money managers are precluded from investing in those types of assets in many retirement products, but the Trump administration is in the process of changing that, Fink explained. 

    The new investment opportunity comes with risk. 

    “But everything is risky other than keeping your money in a bank account overnight,” Fink said.

    Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock

    Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock

    60 Minutes


    Fink, who once called bitcoin the domain of money launderers and thieves, also wants to add crypto to investment portfolios.

    “The markets teach you, you have to always relook at your assumptions,” he said. “There is a role for crypto in the same way there is a role for gold — that is, it’s an alternative.”

    He sees it, as he does AI, as an opportunity to add diversity to a portfolio.

    But Sorkin says some crypto products, like meme coins, can be abused in ways similar to 1929, with speculators sending the value of cryptocurrencies soaring before they come crashing down. Sorkin has his own personal example involving a television appearance with Fink. 

    “He makes a joke, I think, about how there should be a Sorkin coin. Well, two hours later, somebody makes a Sorkin coin. And all of a sudden, this Sorkin coin is now worth millions of dollars. And I’m watching it,” Sorkin said.

    The Sorkin coin peaked at $170 million worth of trading in a day. 

    “And I think today it does something like $20 or $21 a day,” Sorkin said. 

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  • AI boom propping up economy as some guardrails are coming off, journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin warns

    Stocks took a nosedive on Friday after President Trump threatened a big tariff hike on China. Until then, Wall Street had been at record highs for months, which is why we decided to check in with Andrew Ross Sorkin, one of the country’s most influential financial reporters. 

    He’s just written a book called “1929” about the market crash a century ago. We wondered if he’d run out of news to cover, or is he alerting us that what’s been happening in the markets lately – is a replay of what led to the most devastating financial collapse in our history?

    Imagine the New York Stock Exchange back then: the crush of frightened traders dumping stocks, investors losing their shirts, businesses, their homes, sweeping away the Roaring ’20s, walking that same but transformed floor today.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Everything’s digital.

    Lesley Stahl: Well, yeah, OK.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin says we’re in our own roaring ’20s: the 2020s. with stocks climbing for months, just like then.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: The crazy part about this is, from 1928 to September of 1929, the stock market was up 90%!

    Lesley Stahl: When you say the stock market was way up, immediately I think of now. Are you scared?

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: I’m anxious. I’m anxious that we are at prices that may not feel sustainable. And what I don’t know is we are either living through some kind of remarkable boom and part of that’s artificial intelligence and technology and all of that, or everything’s overpriced.

    Lesley Stahl: Or we’re reliving– 

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: 1929. 

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: There was so much anxiety.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin and Lesley Stahl at the NYSE

    60 Minutes


    Sorkin has covered the markets for two decades. He joined the New York Times after college, soon founding the DealBook newsletter covering finance. He also co-hosts “Squawk Box” on CNBC, runs the DealBook Summit, where he interviews the high and mighty, he co-created “Billions” the TV show, wrote a bestseller about the 2008 crash, and now, a book about 1929. 

    Lesley Stahl: We’re always being undone by bubbles. There was the internet bubble in 2000, the housing in 2008. Are we in another bubble? An AI bubble or something like that?

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: I think it’s hard to say we’re not in a bubble of some sort. The question is always when is the bubble going to pop?

    Lesley Stahl: One symptom of a bubble is when the market goes up and up, but the underlying economy – the real economy – goes soft. And that appears to be happening right now.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: I would argue to you that the economy is being propped up, almost artificially, by the artificial intelligence boom. There are hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested today in artificial intelligence. This is either a gold rush or a sugar rush and we probably won’t know for a couple of years which one it is.

    1929 was a sugar rush caused by speculation and debt. People who didn’t really have much money were lured by Wall Street bankers to invest using a newfangled concept to take on debt, called credit. You only had to put down 10% of the stock price, borrowing the rest from your broker.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Prior to 1919, most people did not take on credit or debt at all. It was a sin. It was a moral sin to use credit–

    Lesley Stahl: Oh, really?

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: –to buy anything. And it was really General Motors that basically came up with the idea that we’re gonna lend you money so you can afford to buy our cars.

    Lesley Stahl: Brilliant.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: And then the bankers realize what’s happening, and they realize that they can lend out money so that more folks can buy stocks. It was all sort of wrapped in the flag of democratizing access. And in good times, when the stock is going up, it’s like free money. In bad times, you’re on the hook, and you’re on the hook in a very bad way.

    Since then, laws, regulations, and agencies have been put in place to protect investors – especially the less affluent – from being exploited.

    Lesley Stahl: We put up barriers after 1929.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Yes.

    Lesley Stahl: Protections.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Yes.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin

    Andrew Ross Sorkin

    60 Minutes


    Lesley Stahl: So those are coming down. They’re tumbling down one — the SEC rules aren’t as stringent anymore.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Yes. The Consumer Protection Bureau practically doesn’t exist anymore.

    Lesley Stahl: Correct.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: That’s what concerns me. It’s not that we’re going off a cliff tomorrow. It’s that there’s speculation in the market today, there’s an increasing amount of debt in the market today, and all of that’s happening against the backdrop of the guardrails coming off.

    Including guardrails that allow only the wealthy to invest directly in private companies that have fewer regulations, like AI startups before they go public.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: So over the last 20 or 30 years, folks who had access to, who could invest in private equity, in venture capital, clearly outperformed folks who didn’t. And so–

    Lesley Stahl: That’s how you really made money. But you have to remember that these kind of assets are gambles.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Public companies, after the SEC was created, were required to have all sorts of disclosure rules so that the public could understand what’s going on inside them. Private companies don’t have that. But historically, the average ordinary American wasn’t really allowed to invest in the private companies. But in this flag of democratizing finance, there’s a lot of people who want access to that. 

    Lesley Stahl: Wow.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Isn’t this something?

    Lesley Stahl: This is spectacular.

    Sorkin took us to the Fifth Avenue mansion of one of the big bankers back then, who pushed democratization. 

    Andrew Ross Sorkin and Lesley Stahl

    Andrew Ross Sorkin took 60 Minutes to the Fifth Avenue mansion of one of the big bankers back then, who pushed democratization. 

    60 Minutes


    Lesley Stahl: If this idea of bringing a regular guy into buying stock, if that was a big problem back in 1929 why are we going there again? Doesn’t it defy some kind of logic?

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: There is a view that it’s been only the elites that have had access to these investments, Facebook before it ever went public, Uber before it went public. So there is this idea that it’s unfair, actually, to the ordinary investor because we haven’t allowed them to get access to some of these investment opportunities early. And there is a real push, partially by the Trump administration, partially by the industry itself, which wants to–

    Lesley Stahl: Get more money.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Get more money in– to open up the market to more and more people. 

    Lesley Stahl: So we have these guardrails for a reason. I mean, they’re there to protect, and they have protected.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: They have protected a lot of people, but some people would say they protected people from getting rich. 

    Larry Fink: Many people don’t believe in capitalism anymore. And I think a lot of it is because they were not a part of the growth of the economy.

    We went to Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, the world’s biggest money manager, handling $12.5 trillion in assets, like pension funds. His annual letter to investors is a kind of industry roadmap. This latest one he suggested opening our retirement 401(k)s – bastions of caution – to riskier private investments in the name of, wait for it: democratizing investing.

    Larry Fink: As I wrote, there are many great opportunities to be investing in the s- in startup companies, to invest in AI or data centers. Right now, we’re precluded to put those type of assets in many retirement products. And the Trump administration has now said we’re going to allow in our 401(k) products the opportunity to invest in these private markets.

    Lesley Stahl: But, they are risky. Aren’t they?

    Larry Fink: Yes. But everything is risky other than keeping your money in a bank account overnight.

    Lesley Stahl: But we’re talking about 401(k)s.

    Larry Fink: Yes.

    Lesley Stahl: Investing out of retirement accounts.

    Larry Fink: Yes.

    Lesley Stahl: You’re risking the nest egg or part of the– a little part of the nest egg. 

    Larry Fink: But what the markets will teach you over the last 100 years, even at the worst moments, if you have the ability to persevere and you have a long-term horizon, you’re going to do fine. And a diversified portfolio is essential. We’re not suggesting, you know, one shoe fits all. We are suggesting the opportunity to have that ability to invest in these private market investments.

    Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock

    Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock

    60 Minutes


    He also believes we should be investing in crypto. 

    Lesley Stahl: It wasn’t that long ago that the big bankers, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink, were saying that crypto was stupid and a fraud.

    Larry Fink: I did say Bitcoin, because we were talking about Bitcoin then, was the domain of money launderers and thieves. But you know, the markets teach you, you have to always relook at your assumptions. There is a role for crypto in the same way there is a role for gold, that is it’s an alternative. For those looking to diversify this is not a bad asset, but I don’t believe that it should be a large component of your portfolio.

    But Sorkin says some crypto can be abused in ways similar to 1929. Take meme coins: cryptocurrencies that can be manipulated by speculators who pumped them up, then let them crash. 

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: There are a number of examples where it felt like there was an inside group of people who were colluding to pump up some of these cryptocurrencies, and other things. I’ll give you a bizarre story of my own. I was on television with Larry Fink, and he makes a joke, I think, about how there should be a Sorkin coin. Well, two hours later, somebody makes a Sorkin coin. And all of a sudden, this Sorkin coin is now worth millions of dollars. And I’m watching it.

    Lesley Stahl: Are you serious?

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: Go up, and up, and up, and up, and up. 

    The sorkin coin peaked at $170 million worth of trading in a day. 

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: And I think today it does something like $20 or $21 a day, so…

    Lesley Stahl: [makes spiral noise] 

    Sorkin is trusted by the world’s top business leaders, who talk to him often exclusively. 

    Lesley Stahl: What role do you think these business leaders should be playing now?

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: My own view is that most CEOs in America today are very scared to speak out publicly about anything. They are so worried that they are going to be potentially attacked by the administration, or regulated. They’re gonna have a merger in front of some agency that’s not gonna be allowed to go through. They are so nervous about criticizing anything that’s going on with this administration.

    Lesley Stahl: There are some economists who suggest that because Mr. Trump ties his success to the success of the market, that he’s not gonna let anything like what happened in 1929 happen. And that we should feel secure because of that.

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: I think it’s hard to know how things get out of control. When confidence disappears, it happens like this. [SNAP] 

    Lesley Stahl: So, you spent nearly 10 years on this book. The inevitable question is: do you think that we will have a crash or not?

    Andrew Ross Sorkin: The answer is we will have a crash; I just can’t tell you when, and I can’t tell you how deep. But I can assure you, unfortunately, I wish I wasn’t saying this, we will have a crash.

    Produced by Shachar Bar-On. Associate producer, Jinsol Jung. Broadcast associate, Aria Een. Edited by Sean Kelly.

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  • Trump announces 130% tariffs on China. The global trade war just came roaring back

    (CNN) — President Donald Trump announced he will impose an additional 100% tariff on goods from China, on top of the 30% tariffs already in effect, starting November 1 or sooner. The threat is a massive escalation after months of a trade truce between the two nations.

    “The United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social Friday afternoon. “Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.”

    Trump’s announcement is tied to Beijing ramping up export controls on its critical rare earths, which are needed to produce many electronics. As a result, Trump appeared to call off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping that was scheduled for later this month in South Korea.

    Trump’s initial message Friday, delivered via a Truth Social post, in which he threatened “massive” new tariffs, was ill received by investors on Friday as fears of a spring déjà vu, when tariffs on Chinese goods soared to a stunning 145%, set in. Markets closed sharply lower on Friday after Trump’s initial comments, with the Dow falling by 878 points, or 1.9%. The S&P 500 was down 2.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 3.5%.

    While Trump doesn’t always act on his threats, investors, consumers and businesses still have reason to worry.

    President Donald Trump is threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese goods shipped to the United States. Credit: Jessica Koscielniak / Reuters via CNN Newsource

    The two largest economies depend on each other

    The United States and China are the world’s two largest economies. Although Mexico has recently replaced China as the top source of foreign goods shipped to the United States, America depends on China for hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods. Meanwhile, China is one of the top export markets for America.

    In particular, electronics, apparel and furniture are among the top goods the United States receives from China. Trump has pushed CEOs, especially in tech, to move production to the United States, but he’s softened his approach in recent months as business leaders have satisfied the president with announcements of hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in US manufacturing — even if they continue to make the bulk of their products overseas.

    Shortly after imposing minimum 145% tariffs on Chinese goods — an effective embargo on trade, Trump issued an exemption for electronics, making them subject to 20% tariffs instead. The move was, in many ways, an acknowledgment that the Trump administration understood the pain he was inflicting on the US economy through his sky-high tariffs.

    Then, in May, US and Chinese officials further established the interdependence of trade by agreeing to lower tariffs on one another. China brought levies on American exports down to 10% from 125%, and the United States brought rates down to 30% from 145%.

    Both countries’ stock markets rallied as a result.

    It was only a matter of time

    Trump on Friday claimed trade hostility from China “came out of nowhere.” But in reality, it’s been bubbling up for months.

    For the United States, a critical part of trade agreements has been to ensure China will increase its supply of rare earth magnets. Yet despite several apparent breakthroughs, Trump has in recent months repeatedly accused China of violating the terms.

    Trump first responded by putting restrictions on sales of American technologies to China, including a key Nvidia AI chip. Many of these restrictions were later lifted.

    Then came the Trump administration’s announcement that it would soon impose fees on goods transported on Chinese-owned or -operated ships. China countered with a similar plan on American ships that took effect Friday.

    In short: Trump has already demonstrated there’s no limit to how high he’ll go with tariffs on China, and Xi has shown no mercy in how he chooses to retaliate.

    But Trump’s ability to continue to impose tariffs on a whim could soon end, pending the verdict in a landmark case kicking off in the Supreme Court next month. Xi, however, faces no such constraints.

    Elisabeth Buchwald and CNN

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  • On Wall Street, the Mood Is, Shutdown? What Shutdown?

    The government shutdown may have entered its second week. But for investors, it’s been business as usual.

    Little of the uncertainty that’s loomed over federal workers, food program beneficiaries, and small businesses has so far seemed to reach the markets, which have continued to enjoy record highs. And investors seem largely unfazed by the standoff in Washington, confident that this latest shutdown will—like previous ones—reach a resolution without a long-term effect on the overall economy.

    “Shutdowns tend to not be paid much attention to by the market,” says John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. “Ultimately, what [investors] are looking at…is what is the effect from the problem of the day on revenue growth, or sales growth and earning growth.”

    And right now, Stoltzfus says, the damage of the shutdown is being felt, “sadly enough, by the employees who get furloughed, the employees who might be laid off permanently”—not corporations.

    “The market isn’t reacting because not a whole lot has really changed for businesses yet,” adds Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate. “And there is the expectation that this is still going to get settled.”

    In the past, shutdowns have caused relatively small economic blips; economists with Morgan Stanley estimate that quarterly GDP growth declines by .05 percentage points per each week of a shutdown. Even the record shutdown of Donald Trump’s first term, which lasted 35 days, only knocked $3 billion off the GDP. They’ve even been seen as an opportunity; the defense and health care sectors, in particular, lean heavily on government contracts, as Morgan Stanley notes. For investors, the bet is that the past will be prologue.

    But there’s a possibility that this situation could be different. For one thing, the shutdown is playing out against the backdrop of broader economic uncertainty, as reflected in the ongoing surge in gold prices, which rose past $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever Tuesday, with investors also turning to Bitcoin. (A BNY Investments outlook notes that “precious metals tend to rally” as a shutdown continues and markets are impacted.) For another, the shutdown is delaying the release of economic data—some of which has undermined Trump’s claims of a turbocharged economy—potentially leaving investors in the dark. And, of course, there is the nature of this shutdown: “I feel like they’re gridlocked today more than they were even in the first Trump administration,” Kates says.

    Eric Lutz

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  • Wall Street Doesn’t Care About a Government Shutdown

    Want more stock market and economic analysis from Phil Rosen directly in your inbox? Subscribe to Opening Bell Daily’s newsletter

    Investors bought the dip on the government shutdown.

    On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed above 6,700 for the first time ever, securing its 29th record-high of the year after US lawmakers failed to avert the closure of the federal government. 

    Stocks traded lower to start the trading session but reversed course to close the day in the green. 

    But that resilience matches history. Equities have finished higher across the five government shutdowns seen since 1995. In January 2019, the longest funding gap on record at 22 trading days, the S&P 500 advanced more than 10 percent. 

    Wednesday’s record high signals that either investors are betting on a brief and so inconsequential shutdown, or they simply can’t be bothered to care.

    After all, earnings remain robust, the AI trade is only accelerating and recession odds continue to dwindle.

    Still, the shutdown does prevent key data releases, including the September jobs report due Friday. But given the collapse in response rates to government surveys and diminishing credibility of official data, this is a less consequential detail than years past.

    As much as the Federal Reserve, politicians and media pay attention to Labor Department reports, investors increasingly rely on private-sector gauges like ADP’s payroll report or more modern measures from firms like Indeed and LinkedIn. 

    To be clear, alternative indicators point to a slowing labor market with minimal hiring. ADP just reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the weakest print since March 2023 and well below expectations for an increase of 45,000.

    The irony, though, is that the shutdown seems to be juicing the market’s bullish impulse, regardless of a potential blackout on economic data. 

    Without the establishment jobs report, there are fewer catalysts available to challenge the prevailing narrative of strong earnings and imminent rate cuts. 

    CME data shows 99 percent and 87 percent odds for a quarter-point cut in October and December, respectively. 

    The market’s reaction to the shutdown reflects the opportunism of Wall Street. With Washington in gridlock, investors actually face even less friction to push against the bullish story that’s been driving asset prices higher. 

    It seems that in the potential absence of government data, traders are choosing to default to the trend that’s playing out right in front of them — more record highs, AI-fueled earnings, and a growth story that’s put bears on the wrong side of the tape all year.

    Phil Rosen

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  • Wall Street indexes climb as investors brush off government shutdown uncertainties

    By Sinéad Carew and Niket Nishant

    (Reuters) -Wall Street indexes closed up on Monday with the Nasdaq leading gains as investors bought heavyweight technology stocks and shrugged off the uncertainty of a potential U.S. government shutdown and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

    Technology provided the benchmark S&P’s biggest boost as investors bet on growth from artificial intelligence and expectations that the Fed will keep cutting interest rates as it grapples with persistent inflation concerns and labor market uncertainties.

    A major focus for Wall Street this week is a standoff between Republicans and Democrats over funding that has raised the prospect of a government shutdown beginning Wednesday, the first day of the U.S. government’s new fiscal year.

    Even as the Labor Department prepared for a potential delay of its September jobs report in the event of a shutdown, this did not seem to be the key market driver, said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248 Ventures in Charlotte, North Carolina.

    “Investors are clinging to the positives,” Bell said, pointing to rate easing hopes and signs of economic resilience from recent releases including housing market and consumer spending data.

    “The market is not going to shoot to the moon, because this is a risk. But investors can look through the potential for a shutdown, because if it does occur it will likely be resolved quickly and the market can resume focusing on the things that do matter, like earnings, monetary policy and AI investments.”

    While shutdowns have not tended to impact corporate results historically, the imminent threat may have limited gains and kept trading volume light on Monday, according to Burns McKinney, portfolio manager and NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, Texas.

    “The only reason it would truly move markets is if it affects the bottom line. Historically speaking, government shutdowns are brief and they don’t have an impact on profitability so investors tend to be forward-looking,” said McKinney.

    “It’s just like smoke on a racetrack. They just keep the wheels straight, manage through the stress and move forward through the smoke.”

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68.78 points, or 0.15%, to 46,316.07, the S&P 500 gained 17.51 points, or 0.26%, to 6,661.21 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 107.09 points, or 0.48%, to 22,591.15.

    Investors were also monitoring Fed policymakers’ commentary for any signs of concern over the potential loss of economic visibility should a shutdown materialize.

    Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, among the most hawkish Fed officials and not a voter on policy this year, said on Monday the central bank needed to maintain restrictive monetary policy to cool inflation.

    St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem, a voter on rates this year, said he was open to further interest rate cuts but that the Fed must be cautious and keep rates high enough to continue to lean against inflation, which remains roughly a percentage point above the central bank’s 2% target.

    Traders, however, are pricing in a roughly 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

    Among the S&P 500’s 11 major industry sectors, nine advanced. With oil prices falling more than 3%, the energy sector was the biggest laggard, ending down 1.9%. Consumer discretionary was the biggest percentage gainer, adding 0.6%.

    But for index point boosts, technology was the clear leader with big pushes from AI chip leader Nvidia, up 2%, and Microsoft, which added 0.6%.

    Electronic Arts shares rallied 4.5% after the game publisher agreed to be taken private in a $55 billion deal, fueling hopes for broader deal prospects, said Bell of 248 Ventures, who saw the transaction as “confirmation that the M&A market is open.”

    Lam Research shares advanced 2% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the rating on the chip-making equipment firm to “buy” from “hold.”

    AppLovin set a fresh record high before closing up 6.3% at $712.36, also providing one of the biggest lifts for the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley raised the target price on the stock to $750 from $480.

    After U.S. President Donald Trump shared a video on Sunday promoting the health benefits of hemp-derived cannabidiol, U.S.-listed shares of cannabis-related companies rose. Canopy Growth rallied 17% to $1.57 while Cronos Group rose almost 13% to $2.97 and Tilray Brands jumped 60.9% to $1.85.

    Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.38-to-1 ratio on the NYSE where there were 337 new highs and 80 new lows. The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and six new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 116 new highs and 74 new lows.

    On the Nasdaq, 2,525 stocks rose and 2,118 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.19-to-1 ratio.

    On U.S. exchanges about 17.91 billion shares changed hands compared with the 18.25 billion average from the last 20 sessions.

    (Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York, Niket Nishant and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila, Shilpi Majumdar and Richard Chang)

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  • Investors Are So Confident in the Trump Economy They’re Turning to Gold

    The president promised a “golden age,” but Americans buying actual gold to hedge against an unstable economy is probably not what he had in mind.

    Gold—it’s not only the decoration of choice for Donald Trump’s White House, but, it seems, the asset of choice for investors skittish about the economy he’s overseeing.

    Gold prices have been surging lately, climbing to a record high Tuesday amid declining value of the US dollar, political instability, and anxiety over the president’s signature tariffs—the latest sign that his economy may not exactly be the “miracle” he promised he’d deliver on the campaign trail.

    “Investors turn to gold not only for its historical role as a safe haven, but also for its ability to hedge against inflation, currency volatility, and geopolitical risk,” said Juan Carlos Artigas, regional CEO (Americas) and global head of research for the World Gold Council. “While rising gold prices don’t guarantee economic headwinds, they often signal that investors are preparing for them.”

    The alarm bells have been ringing loudly since this summer, when a bruising Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed the worst three-month stretch of hiring since the pandemic. Trump, furious at the numbers, fired the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, insisting that she had manipulated the data for “political purposes.”

    “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,” Trump posted on his social media site in August, taking a shot at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for good measure. (After her firing, McEntarfer told an audience at an event at Bard College, “Firing your chief statisticians for releasing data you do not like, it has serious economic consequences.”)

    Trump, of course, had been browbeating Powell about cutting interest rates—threatening to fire him, and seeking to oust a Fed governor as part of an apparent effort to exert more control over the independent body. (The governor—Lisa Cook—has contested Trump’s allegations of mortgage fraud and sued Trump, and the courts have blocked her firing so far.) The Fed finally did cut rates last week, but only after another troubling sign for the economy: a revised hiring estimate from the BLS that showed 911,000 fewer jobs had been added to the economy in the year ending in March 2025.

    Trump has insisted that everything is running smoothly. “We are, as a country, as you know, doing unbelievably well,” he said at a state dinner hosted by King Charles in the United Kingdom last week. “We had a very sick country one year ago. And today, I believe we’re the hottest country anywhere in the world. In fact, nobody is even questioning it.”

    A good many people do seem to be questioning that though: The economy, a signature issue of Trump’s winning 2024 campaign, appears to be turning into a polling vulnerability for him. Two of his most significant economic initiatives—his belligerent tariff regime, and the “Big Beautiful Bill” his Republican majorities rammed through on the Hill this summer—appear to be broadly unpopular with the American public. And his overall approval rating is underwater. His gilded White House—“That’s all 24-karat,” he has bragged of his redecorated Oval Office—doesn’t seem to reflect the mood of most everyday Americans, whom he’d promised in his campaign to rescue from their economic precarity.

    Back then, he said he would usher in a “golden age” in America. In one sense, that’s true: Investors seem so confident in the economy he’s overseeing that they’re turning to gold.

    Eric Lutz

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