Interruptions dominated the one and only Virginia gubernatorial debate between Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger Thursday night.
Interruptions dominated the one and only Virginia gubernatorial debate between Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger Thursday night.
With less than a month remaining before the general election, independent voters are gravitating toward Spanberger and her campaign, David Ramadan, a professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, told WTOP.
“She’s talking about affordability, talking about education, talking about people losing jobs,” Ramadan said. “That’s resonating with the independent voter.”
After an “exhausting” debate, Ramadan, a former Republican member of the Virginia House of Delegates, said the interruptions did not give the public a chance to learn real information, possibly resulting in no changes in support for either candidate.
However, if there was a winner, Ramadan said Spanberger’s strategy of sticking to “kitchen table issues” throughout her campaign and the debate helped sway independent voters. Before the debate, a Washington Post/Schar School poll found Spanberger ahead of Earle-Sears by 12% among likely voters.
“It’s the independent voter that any candidate who wants to win needs to attract,” he said. “It’s obvious that Spanberger’s message is resonating with (the) independent voter.”
Spanberger largely avoided addressing her Republican opponent directly, opting for a more sterile and bipartisan tone.
Ramadan called the decision not to engage with Earle-Sears smart, especially when it came to the emergence of attorney general candidate Jay Jones’ 2022 text messages to a colleague about shooting former House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
“Concentrating on your own campaign versus others that you cannot control is a smart way of running a debate and running a campaign, especially when you’re only four weeks away,” Ramadan said.
Ramadan said Earle-Sears bringing up Gilbert’s text messages during the debate may sway voters on their choice for attorney general, “but it’s not going to sway voters on who are they going to vote for governor and for lieutenant governor.”
“In Virginia, even though there are two parties, and there are three people from each party running. They all run individually and independently. There’s no tickets that are in there. The voter doesn’t walk in and cast one vote for three candidates. You cast one vote per candidate,” Ramadan said.
Earle-Sears’ strategy
In her campaign ads, Earle-Sears highlighted transgender and social issues, which echo what Gov. Glenn Youngkin ran on four years ago. Ramadan said that these may not be resonating for Earle-Sears, however, “because she is anywhere between seven to 12 points behind.”
Ramadan said Earle-Sears’ debate strategy did not work.
“I guess the tactic was to try to derail Congresswoman Spanberger from sticking to her talking points that are resonating and by interrupt, interrupt. And it did not work,” Ramadan said.
While it’s a long shot for any candidate, not just Earle-Sears, to come back from being 7 to 12 points behind, Ramadan said informing the public about some of the policies Earle-Sears would be supporting could help, but he’s doubtful it’s enough to close the gap.
“(Earle-)Sears, to the best of my knowledge, does not even have any policy on her website,” Ramadan said.
Spanberger, however, has talked about Virginians being out of work due to DOGE cuts and the recent government shutdown, which Ramadan said is working for Spanberger. While Earle-Sears, Ramadan said, had “a couple of mishaps,” including when she commented, amid the height of DOGE cuts earlier this year, that job loss was a common experience.
There’s also her support of President Donald Trump’s administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which Ramadan said was not resonating in Northern Virginia.
Ramadan said to win any statewide race, candidates need a hefty margin in Northern Virginia.
“The DOGE and the federal cuts are better issues for Democrats and better issues for Spanberger than they are for Earle-Sears and Republicans,” he said.
With fewer than 30 days until the general election, Spanberger needs to stay the course and keep focusing on the kitchen table issues that are winning topics for her, Ramadan said.
The size of her victory could indicate what’s to come nationwide during the midterms.
“If it’s a small margin, the case then becomes, ‘OK, that was good for Virginia, it doesn’t mean it’s going to work for the rest of the country,’” Ramadan said. “If the margin ends up a big margin, as we’re seeing in today’s polls and last week’s polls, then this is a teaching lesson in a bellwether moment for the entire country for the 2026 elections.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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