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Tag: Voting

  • Sandra Day O’Connor Institute, National Association of Secretaries of State Discuss Preparation for November Election

    Sandra Day O’Connor Institute, National Association of Secretaries of State Discuss Preparation for November Election

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    PHOENIX, August 15, 2024 (Newswire.com)
    –
    The Sandra Day O’Connor Institute for American Democracy has collaborated with the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS) to present an informative virtual discussion on the general election on Nov. 5, 2024. Watch the “How are Secretaries of State Preparing for the November Election?” webcast available now on the Institute’s website, YouTube channel and your favorite podcast platform.

    As the Institute’s founder Justice Sandra Day O’Connor said, “Our democracy works best when it is open, accessible, and transparent to all citizens.”

    NASS President Minnesota Secretary Steve Simon, President-elect Mississippi Secretary Michael Watson, and Executive Director Leslie Reynolds joined to discuss important bipartisan aspects of election administration, including election security, voter registration, recruitment of poll workers, and evolving technology.

    Since 2020’s national spotlight on elections, NASS members have worked diligently to safeguard timely, accurate, and trusted voting information shared with the public. #TrustedInfo2024 is the NASS effort to help voters find election information. 

    “Don’t just trust what is in your social media feed or what a particular candidate says,” Secretary Simon said. “Seek out trusted sources of information.”

    Many states have also addressed this issue uniquely through collaboration with their legislatures on new laws at the state level. To help access this unique information, NASS created CanIVote.org, which leads voters directly to their state’s election officials for state laws, deadlines, and general election information.

    Technology continues to evolve and as artificial intelligence (AI) technology becomes more accessible, election officials are addressing concerns to help ensure correct information is available. Several states are taking steps to create laws protecting voters from erroneous election information.

    Another critical aspect of preparation for the general election is recruiting poll workers who play an essential role in America’s elections. “Nationwide, we are seeing a greater emphasis on recruiting the next generation of poll workers and ensuring that they are trained and ready to serve,” Executive Director Reynolds said. “Having and continuing to expand the crop of poll workers is very important.”

    Understandably, the aspect of election administration that garners the most attention is the results. The panelists noted official, certified results take time, and what Americans see on election night is not necessarily final.

    “Election night is unofficial; when you see these calls made on election night, that is the media,” Secretary Watson said. “That is not your election official. I think it is really important that the public understand that.”

    Each state has its own ballot rules, voting windows, and tabulation methods. Every election official’s primary focus is accuracy to ensure every eligible vote counts. Contact your state and local election officials for up-to-date information if you have questions about your state’s laws, procedures or rules. 

    To further help you prepare for the November Election, the Sandra Day O’Connor Institute has created the Citizen’s Guide to the General Election. This guide provides state-level information on election deadlines, voter registration, which races are on the ballot, and more. You can find this guide and more election information at oconnorinstitute.org/elections.

    About Sandra Day O’Connor Institute for American Democracy

    Founded in 2009 by retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, the O’Connor Institute, a nonprofit, nonpartisan 501(c)(3), continues her distinguished legacy and lifetime work to advance American democracy through multigenerational civil discourse, civic engagement, and civics education. Visit OConnorInstitute.org to learn more.

    About National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS)

    Founded in 1904, National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS) is the oldest, nonpartisan professional organization of public officials in the U.S. Membership is open to the 50 states and all U.S. territories. NASS serves as a medium for the exchange of information between states and fosters cooperation in the development of public policy. For more information, visit NASS.org.

    Source: Sandra Day O’Connor Institute for American Democracy

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  • France’s ‘Olympics truce’ ends, returning political tensions to the fore

    France’s ‘Olympics truce’ ends, returning political tensions to the fore

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    Emmanuel Macron, president of France, arrives at the Stade de France prior to the Closing Ceremony of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at the Stade de France on August 11, 2024 in Paris, France.

    Tom Weller/voigt | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images

    Time is running out on the so-called “Olympic political truce” declared by French President Emmanuel Macron in late July, pushing the country’s rocky political landscape back into focus.

    The snap legislative election called by Macron for early July — just before Paris hosted the world’s biggest sporting event — resulted in a hung parliament, with no party or alliance securing a majority. The left-wing New Popular Front alliance won the highest number of seats and prevented a much-discussed victory for the far-right National Rally.

    For the past few weeks, however, the nation has been largely united by sporting spirit.

    The usual stream of squabbling from politicians across the spectrum has dried up, and a “caretaker” government has remained nominally in place. The National Assembly’s next nine-month session is not due to begin until Oct. 1.

    Macron is set to remain president until his term runs out in 2027, although much of his domestic political capital has been expended after his Renaissance party’s electoral battering.

    Prime minister tussles

    One of the key questions back on the agenda now is who Macron will appoint as the new prime minister — who leads the French government, nominates ministers and instigates legislation — after the resignation of his ally Gabriel Attal.

    Macron is keeping his cards close to his chest, and has not commented on Lucie Castets, the little-known candidate nominated for the role by New Popular Front after much debate.

    While theoretically free to appoint anyone to the role, and with no obligation to choose a candidate from the party with the most seats, an unpopular choice could be ousted by a vote of no confidence in parliament. Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly and call another election for another year.

    Elsa Clara Massoc, assistant professor of International Political Economy at the University of St. Gallen, said the situation was “unprecedented” and looked to be a potential “dead-end” because of the extent of division in the new parliament.

    “Under the previous legislature, Macron didn’t have an absolute majority but still more than the Left today and could count on the support of Conservatives to not endure a censor motion,” she told CNBC by email.

    She highlighted issues including the fact that New Popular Front’s 178 seats are well short of the 289 needed for a majority and its candidate Castets is likely to be rejected by other parties.

    Meanwhile, Macron’s own politics and allied government have been “widely rejected by the French,” Massoc added, and no party will form an alliance with far-right National Rally. Even within the leftist grouping, parties are divided and some will refuse any sort of alliance with centrists, she said.

    One outcome could see the right-wing Les Republicains willing to form a “passive majority” with the center, but the former appears reluctant to lose “what remains of its specificity,” Massoc added, and opposition in parliament would still be high.

    There are further questions over how such a divided parliament will agree on any legislation, with approval of the 2025 budget looming. Even in 2022, Macron resorted to using a special constitutional power to pass the next year’s spending bill.

    There is also likely to be fierce debate over how — or whether — to take action to tackle France’s huge debt pile, and whether flagship Macronist policies such as raising the national retirement age can or should be unwound.

    Under the French political system, the parliament has relatively little power and between 2017 and 2022, 65% of texts adopted were laws proposed by the government rather than parliament, Massoc noted.

    From a markets perspective, the French CAC 40 index has fallen over 4.5% since the result of the election on July 7. But analysts say a divided parliament could actually lead to more stability in stocks and bonds as it will likely prevent the implementation of some parties’ more populist policies.

    Political parties have their sights set firmly on the 2027 presidential race — which Macron cannot run in — and very few will want to be responsible for cutting public spending in order to tackle the public deficit, Renaud Foucart, senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University, told CNBC by phone.

    Former Bank of France President Trichet: Reasonably confident France will find political solution, no current party can rule alone

    For now, uncertainty reigns and Macron’s strategy appears to be to drag things out for as long as possible, he continued.

    From a personal perspective, even if he is a “lame duck” leader on the home front, Macron will likely be happy taking a more international focus and continue to try to influence European politics, Foucart said.

    “His project that included transforming the labor market and deregulating the economy is basically over — he did what he wanted to do,” he continued.

    Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, said in a Monday note that Macron has had both failures and successes but gained little credit for his domestic wins, including reducing high unemployment.

    The left wing focuses on his lowering of taxes for the rich and “assaults on the French welfare state,” while the right wing points to high immigration numbers and the violent crime rate, he said.

    Macron has also ultimately “failed to sell his vision of a stronger France in a stronger Europe to a majority of French voters,” Rahman said.

    “Seven years ago, Macron pledged to lead France to a promised land beyond the sterile alternation of left and right. Instead, he has taken France into a political quicksand with no secure government, a record budget deficit, and 3 trillion [euros, or $3.28 billion] in accumulated debt,” Rahman said.

    Disclosure: CNBC parent NBCUniversal owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder to all Summer and Winter Games through 2032.

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  • Harris erases Trump’s lead on economy among younger Americans, CNBC/Generation Lab survey finds

    Harris erases Trump’s lead on economy among younger Americans, CNBC/Generation Lab survey finds

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    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump.

    Brendan Mcdermid | Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

    Younger Americans do not appear to hold Vice President Kamala Harris responsible for what many of them believe is a worsening U.S. economy under the Biden-Harris administration, according to a new survey from CNBC and Generation Lab.

    The latest quarterly Youth & Money Survey, taken after Biden dropped out of the race in July, reveals that 69% of Americans between 18 and 34 years old believe the economy is getting worse under President Joe Biden.

    But they also think the candidate best able to improve the economy is the de facto Democratic nominee Harris, not Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.

    Harris was viewed as the best candidate for the economy by 41% of poll respondents, while 40% chose Trump, while 19% said the economy would do better under someone else, like third party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    The results amount to a seven-point swing in Democrats’ favor on the economy since CNBC asked the same question in May’s Youth & Money Survey. At that time, only 34% of respondents believed Biden, then the likely Democratic nominee, was the best candidate to boost the economy, with 40% choosing Trump and 25% saying Kennedy.

    The shift in voting support for Harris is even wider among respondents overall. If the presidential election were held today, the latest poll found Harris holding a 12-point lead over Trump among younger Americans, 46% to 34%, while 21% said they would vote for either Kennedy or another candidate.

    Three months ago, the same survey found Trump and Biden effectively tied, with 36% for Biden and 35% for Trump, and 29% planning to vote for Kennedy.

    This jump in support for Harris today is all the more notable because of how significant the economy is to the voting choices of younger Americans.

    Read more CNBC politics coverage

    According to the new CNBC survey data, the “economy and cost of living” was cited more than any other issue when respondents were asked what will impact their decisions about who to vote for, with 66% of respondents naming it among their top three. Running second with 34% was “access to abortion and reproductive rights,” followed by “gun violence/control” at 26%.

    Nonetheless, these results also contain warning signs for Harris and the Democratic Party.

    To win the White House, Harris will likely need to do even better among young people in November than her current 12-point lead in the CNBC and Generation Lab’s survey.

    ‘Bidenomics’ may not be a drag on Harris

    With fewer than 90 days to go before Election Day on Nov. 5, these new results could have significant implications for a presidential contest that was altered by Biden’s decision to drop out.

    As pollsters race to gather data on how Harris’ candidacy is — or is not — changing the race, one of the biggest unanswered questions for both parties is whether Americans will transfer their well-documented frustration with Biden, after years of high inflation and high interest rates, directly over to Harris.

    These findings suggest that the political drag of “Bidenomics” has so far not rubbed off on Harris — at least not among younger people.

    In 2020 for example, Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by a margin of 24 percentage points, with 59% of the vote to Trump’s 35%.

    And while young people have long made up a crucial constituency for Democratic candidates, this year, depending upon which states Kennedy appears on the ballot, the embattled anti-vaccine independent might still be able to peel away enough votes from Harris to cut into her overall margins.

    Turnout is also a potential trouble spot for Democrats. The 18- to 34-year-old cohort makes up roughly a quarter of the total U.S. population, or around 76 million people, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. During the last presidential election in 2020, 57% of this age group turned out to vote.

    In this survey, 77% of respondents said they either definitely or probably will vote. But in past elections, the number of people who say they plan to vote is typically much higher than those who actually do.

    Economy is still a wild card

    Lastly, as is always the case in an election, the economy itself could either hurt or help Harris, depending upon where it goes.

    For example, this poll was taken between July 22 and July 29, before the latest jobs report showed a contraction, spurring new fears of an economic recession.

    It was also taken before the market sell-off on Aug. 5, which was triggered in part by fears stemming from the rocky jobs report.

    Meanwhile, most polls that sample all adults, and not just younger people, still show Trump holding on to his advantage when it comes to which candidate voters trust more to improve the economy.

    Any more bad economic news between now and November could see voters blame Harris — who has yet to fully articulate an economic agenda distinct from Biden’s — and pivot back to the perceived safety of Trump’s familiar economic agenda.

    The survey interviewed 1,043 adults between the ages of 18 and 34, with a margin of error of 3.0%.

    Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO

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  • Ex-Catalan leader Puigdemont, a fugitive since 2017, returns to Spain. But then he vanishes again

    Ex-Catalan leader Puigdemont, a fugitive since 2017, returns to Spain. But then he vanishes again

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    BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Police launched a manhunt in Barcelona on Thursday for fugitive Carles Puigdemont, a celebrated campaigner for Catalan independence who made a sensational return to Spain and an equally sensational getaway from a speech in the city with the alleged help of local police officers.

    The events took place nearly seven years after the ex-Catalonia leader fled Spain after a failed independence bid, with an outstanding arrest warrant pending against him.

    Puigdemont had previously announced his intention to be in Spain on the day that Catalonia’s parliament proclaimed a new president. The 61-year-old initially lived in Belgium after bolting from Spain in 2017, but his latest place of residence wasn’t known.

    Puigdemont kept his travel plans secret before setting out to the wealthy Catalan region in northeastern Spain. He gave a speech in front of a large crowd of supporters in central Barcelona under the noses of police officers, who made no attempt to detain him.

    AP correspondent Karen Chammas reports on the defiant return of an ex Catalan leader to Spain nearly 7 years after he fled.

    After his speech, in a cloak-and-dagger moment, Puigdemont went into an adjacent marquee tent. There, he hurried out of an exit and jumped into a waiting car that sped away, according to an Associated Press photographer who witnessed his departure.

    Catalan police arrested two of their own officers for their alleged involvement in Puigdemont’s getaway, suspecting that the former leader used the private car of one of them, the force’s press office told The Associated Press. No further details were available.

    After Puigdemont vanished, Catalan police — called Mossos d’Esquadra — checked vehicles across the city of around 1.6 million people and others heading on highways to neighboring France in an effort to nab him. The checks were called off hours later.

    Puigdemont shared later a video of his speech on Instagram with the message “We’re still here. Long live free Catalonia.”

    Officers initially held back from swooping to arrest Puigdemont out of concern the move might “cause public disorder,” a police statement said. Officers tried to stop the fleeing vehicle, but were unable to do so, it said, though it added that further arrests were expected. The statement didn’t elaborate.

    The Catalan police force operates separately from Spain’s Policía Nacional. At the time of the 2017 ballot, the Spanish government suspended the Mossos’ chief and placed the force under investigation for failing to stop the vote. The chief and his staff were eventually exonerated.

    Puigdemont faces charges of embezzlement for his part in an attempt to break Catalonia away from the rest of Spain in 2017. As regional president and separatist party leader at the time, he was a key player in the independence referendum that was outlawed by the central government but went ahead anyway.

    Those events triggered a political crisis that roiled Spain for months.

    Puigdemont’s appearance in Barcelona, Catalonia’s capital, and his game of cat-and-mouse with police, stole the show on a day when a new president was being proclaimed at the regional parliament.

    Local police were deployed in a security ring around a section of the park where Catalonia’s parliament building is located behind walls, and where Puigdemont was expected to go after his speech. Meanwhile, the politician, wearing a dark suit, white shirt and tie, walked with supporters to the nearby stage where he gave his speech.

    Addressing the crowd in the park and at times pumping his fist, Puigdemont accused Spanish authorities of “a crackdown” on the Catalan separatist movement.

    “For the last seven years we have been persecuted because we wanted to hear the voice of the Catalan people,” Puigdemont said. “They have made being Catalan into something suspicious.”

    He added: “All people have the right to self-determination.”

    The gripping turn of events, broadcast live on Spanish television channels, was likely to bring political recriminations.

    The leader of the Popular Party, the main opposition to Spain’s left-of-center coalition government which has long rebuffed Catalonia’s independence movement, condemned Puigdemont’s return. Alberto Núñez Feijóo posted on X that Puigdemont’s reappearance was an “unbearable humiliation” that damaged Spain’s reputation.

    Spain’s government encouraged a deal brokered after months of deadlock between Salvador Illa’s Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the other main Catalan separatist party and left-wing Esquerra Republicana (ERC). That deal ensured just enough support in Catalonia’s parliament for Illa to become the next regional president Thursday with 68 votes in the 135-seat chamber.

    Illa’s new government is the first non pro-independence government in 14 years, since the PSC last held power.

    Speaking to Catalan lawmakers before the vote, Illa called for reconciliation and respect for a controversial amnesty bill that could eventually clear Puigdemont of wrongdoing but which is being challenged in court. He vowed to govern for all Catalans after years of bitter divisions between those in favor of independence and those against it.

    Puigdemont has dedicated his career to carving out a new country in northeast Spain, and has often thumbed his nose at authorities. His largely uncompromising approach has brought political conflict with other separatist parties as well as with Spain’s central government.

    The contentious amnesty bill, crafted by Spain’s Socialist-led coalition government, could potentially clear hundreds of supporters of Catalan independence of any wrongdoing in the 2017 ballot. Spain’s central government and the Constitutional Court declared at the time that the referendum was illegal.

    But the bill, approved by Spain’s parliament earlier this year, is being challenged by Supreme Court judges who say its provisions should not protect Puigdemont from prosecution over embezzlement charges that have been lodged against him.

    Puigdemont could be placed in pretrial detention if he is arrested.

    ___

    Hatton reported from Lisbon, Portugal. Associated Press photographer Emilio Morenatti in Barcelona and writer Teresa Medrano in Madrid contributed to this report.

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  • NY homeowner testifies that RFK Jr. rents a room, at trial disputing whether he lives in the state

    NY homeowner testifies that RFK Jr. rents a room, at trial disputing whether he lives in the state

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    ALBANY, N.Y. — The woman who owns the suburban New York property independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claims as a residence said in court Tuesday that he rents a room for $500 a month, though payments began only after a news article undercut his claim.

    The testimony comes as Kennedy fights a lawsuit claiming his New York nominating petition listed a residence in New York City’s well-to-do northern suburbs while he has actually lived in Los Angeles since 2014. The suit seeks to invalidate his petition, keeping him off New York’s ballot in November.

    Barbara Moss has owned the property in Katonah since 1991 and has lived there with her husband, Timothy Haydock, an old Kennedy friend, according to court papers.

    Under questioning from Kennedy attorney William F. Savino, Moss told the court in the state capital of Albany that Kennedy was her tenant who pays $500 a month for a room. There is no written lease, she said.

    “As long as Bobby needs the room, it will continue,” she said “That was our understanding.”

    Moss identified photos she took recently of the room showing Kennedy’s clothes in the closet and dresser drawers. And she testified that he regularly received mail at the house.

    A lawyer for the petitioners, John Quinn, noted that the first payment to Moss was made May 20, the day after a New York Post story casting doubt on Kennedy’s claim that he lived at that address. And Moss affirmed that initial payment was for $6,000, an amount equal to a year’s back rent.

    The lawsuit claims Kennedy “at most only visited” the residence about 40 miles (65 kilometers) north of midtown Manhattan.

    Kennedy’s lawyers have maintained that the 70 year old, who led a New York-based environmental group for decades and whose father was a New York senator, has lived in the state since he was 10, and has only moved “temporarily” to California for the career of his wife, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” actor Cheryl Hines.

    Kennedy has said in court papers that he moved to the Katonah address after being asked last year to leave a nearby home where he had been staying. That account was disputed in court on Monday by the owners of that house, who said Kennedy was never a tenant. One of Kennedy’s cousins, Stephen Smith Jr., also testified remotely, saying he once had dinner in a California home the candidate shares with Hines.

    The case was brought on behalf of several New York voters by Clear Choice PAC, a super PAC led by supporters of Democratic President Joe Biden. A judge is set to decide the outcome without a jury.

    While independent presidential candidates like Kennedy face extremely long odds, he has the potential to do better than any such candidate in decades, helped by his famous name and a loyal base. Both Democrat and Republican strategists have worried that he could negatively affect their candidate’s chances.

    Kennedy’s campaign has said he has enough signatures to qualify in 42 states so far. His ballot drive has faced challenges and lawsuits in several states, including North Carolina and New Jersey.

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  • Michigan will choose between Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers for US Senate

    Michigan will choose between Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers for US Senate

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    LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers has secured the Republican nomination for a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan and will face Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the November election.

    Slotkin and Rogers, long considered the front-runners for their respective party nominations, will now shift focus to the general election. Slotkin enters with a massive fundraising advantage and emerges nearly unscathed from a sparse primary, while Rogers has the backing of national Republican groups and former President Donald Trump.

    Former U.S. Rep. and Republican candidate for Michigan Senate Mike Rogers talks to supporters at a post election gathering, Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024, in Lake Orion, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

    Slotkin defeated actor Hill Harper in the Democratic primary, while Republicans chose Rogers over former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and physician Sherry O’Donnell. Both candidates will now compete for a seat left open by longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s retirement.

    The retiring incumbent joined Slotkin onstage at an event in Detroit shortly after the race was called to endorse her. Slotkin praised Stabenow for her years of service before delivering a speech positioning herself as the “normal” and “rational” candidate.

    North of Detroit, in Oakland County, Rogers thanked supporters at a watch party for “not giving up on politics.” Like Slotkin, Rogers represented a mid-Michigan swing district in Congress, and he similarly positioned himself as the common sense candidate in his speech. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate race in Michigan since 1994.

    With Democrats holding a razor-thin majority in the Senate and Republicans in the House, competitive races like those in Michigan have drawn lots of attention. The state’s status as a key presidential swing state raises the stakes for those seats even higher, with party control on the line from the top of the ballot all the way down to the state Legislature.

    Image

    U.S. Senate candidate, Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., left, holds hands with Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., at a primary election night event in Detroit, Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

    Michigan’s open Senate seat is one of a handful of races nationwide that will determine control of the upper chamber in November. With a later congressional primary, Slotkin and Rogers will have a short period to transition from competing against their own party members to appealing to a broader base of voters for the Nov. 5 general election, which may explain why they have campaigned with their eyes on the general election.

    National groups on both sides have already reserved millions of dollars worth of advertisements after the primary. Both Slotkin and Rogers, viewed for months as the overwhelming favorites in their primaries, have skipped debates and refrained from holding large campaign events.

    Several U.S. House seats with primaries on Tuesday could influence the balance of power in the lower chamber, but there, too, the biggest battles will be fought in the fall campaign.

    Slotkin’s entry into the Senate race left her mid-Michigan 7th Congressional District seat open, historically one of the nation’s top battleground districts. Both party candidates ran unopposed in their primaries there, setting the table for a November matchup between Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. and Republican Tom Barrett.

    Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee’s retirement will leave an open seat in the 8th Congressional District, which extends northward from the outskirts of Detroit and covers areas such as Flint, Saginaw and Midland. First-term state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who had been endorsed by Kildee, defeated state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh and Matt Collier, the former mayor of Flint, to secure the Democratic nomination.

    On the Republican side, former TV anchor Paul Junge defeated Mary Draves, a former chemical manufacturing executive at Dow Inc., and Anthony Hudson to win the GOP nomination. Junge lost to Kildee by over 10 percentage points in 2022.

    What to know about the 2024 Election

    Meanwhile, several incumbents in battleground districts now have their November matchups set following Tuesday’s primaries.

    U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, who in 2022 became the first Democrat to represent Grand Rapids in decades, will face Paul Hudson, an attorney who defeated Michael Markey Jr. in the western Michigan district’s GOP primary.

    A district just north of Detroit will see a rematch between freshman GOP Rep. John James and Carl Marlinga, a longtime Macomb County prosecutor who defeated three other Democrats in the primary. Marlinga lost to James by 1,600 votes, and national Democrats have made the seat a top target this cycle.

    In a heavily Democratic district encompassing downtown Detroit, U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar defeated Detroit City Council member Mary Waters, who had been endorsed by Mayor Mike Duggan. Thanedar significantly outraised her, and his win likely leaves Detroit — a city that is nearly 80% Black — without Black representation in Congress for a second consecutive term.

    Down-ballot races held primaries across the state on Tuesday. Control of the state House of Representatives will be at stake in November, with all 110 seats up for election. Democrats took control of both chambers and the governor’s office for the first time in four decades in 2022 and will be trying to defend those majorities.

    ___

    Associated Press writer Isabella Volmert in Lansing, Michigan, contributed to this report.

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  • High turnover of election workers has Pennsylvania officials concerned

    High turnover of election workers has Pennsylvania officials concerned

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    High turnover of election workers has Pennsylvania officials concerned – CBS News


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    Pennsylvania has seen a large turnover in election workers since 2020 due to a combination of people leaving over threats and standard retirements. It has some officials worried about how the 2024 election might go. Jericka Duncan has the story.

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  • Opposition leader joins rally calling for Venezuela presidential election results to be overturned

    Opposition leader joins rally calling for Venezuela presidential election results to be overturned

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    CARACAS, Venezuela — Thousands of people rallied in the streets of Venezuela’s capital Saturday, waving the national flag and singing the national anthem in support of an opposition candidate they believe won the presidential election by a landslide.

    Authorities have declared President Nicolás Maduro the winner of last Sunday’s election but have yet to produce voting tallies to prove he won. Maduro also urged his backers to attend his own “mother of all marches” later Saturday in Caracas.

    The government arrested hundreds of opposition supporters who took to the streets in the days after the disputed poll, and the president and his cadres have threatened to also lock up opposition leader, María Corina Machado, and her hand-picked presidential candidate, Edmundo González.

    On Saturday, supporters chanted and sang as Machado arrived at the rally in Caracas. Ecstatic, they crushed around her as she climbed onto a raised platform on a truck to address the crowd.

    “After six days of brutal repression, they thought they were going to silence us, intimidate or paralyze us,” she told them. “The presence of every one of you here today represents the best of Venezuela.”

    Machado, who has been barred by Maduro’s government from running for office for 15 years, had been in hiding since Tuesday, saying her life and freedom are at risk. Masked assailants ransacked the opposition’s headquarters on Friday, taking documents and vandalizing the space.

    On Saturday, she held aloft a Venezuelan flag and promised that the government whose policies forced millions of Venezuelans to leave was finally coming to an end.

    “We have overcome all the barriers! We have knocked them all down,” Machado said. “Never has the regime been so weak.”

    González, who remains in hiding, was not seen at the event, and when the rally ended, Machado was given a non-descript shirt and whisked away on the back of a motorcycle.

    Carmen Elena García, a 57-year-old street vendor was at the rally even though she feared a government crackdown.

    “They have to respect me and they have to respect all the Venezuelans who voted against this government,” García said. “We will not accept them stealing our votes. They have to respect our votes.”

    A column of pro-government motorcycle riders, who have served as militia for Maduro in the past, rode near the opposition rally, but there were no confrontations. There was only a light police presence.

    The Organization of American States on Saturday called for “reconciliation and justice” in Venezuela, saying “let all Venezuelans who express themselves in the streets find only an echo of peace, a peace that reflects the spirit of democracy.”

    Later Saturday, thousands of government supporters gathered before Maduro’s office at the Miraflores national palace. Wearing red caps and shirts — the color of Maduro’s party — they danced and listened to folk songs. There were fewer national flags, and a lot of umbrellas against the burning Caracas sun.

    In a long, rambling speech fueled by many cups of coffee, Maduro shouted, whistled, sang and cracked jokes, weaving from pop culture to religious references. He repeated his threat to arrest and jail more opponents, including González, but also called for reconciliation and peace.

    “There is room in Venezuela for everyone,” he said, calling it “the blessed land of opportunity.”

    Machado and González, a 74-year-old former diplomat, said tally sheets they obtained from voting machines in polling centers nationwide show Maduro clearly lost his bid for a third six-year term.

    An Associated Press analysis Friday of vote tally sheets released by the opposition coalition indicates that Gonzalez won significantly more votes in the election than the government has claimed, casting serious doubt on the official declaration that Maduro won.

    Late Friday, Venezuela’s high court, the Supreme Justice Tribunal, ordered the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council to hand over the precinct vote count sheets in three days. There have been calls from multiple governments, including Maduro’s close regional allies, for Venezuela’s electoral authorities to release the precinct-level tallies, as it has after previous elections.

    The AP processed almost 24,000 images of tally sheets, representing the results from 79% of voting machines. Each sheet encoded vote counts in QR codes, which the AP programmatically decoded and analyzed, resulting in tabulations of 10.26 million votes.

    According to the calculations, the González received 6.89 million votes, nearly half a million more than the government says Maduro won. The tabulations also show Maduro received 3.13 million votes from the tally sheets released.

    By comparison, the National Electoral Council said Friday that based on 96.87% of tally sheets, Maduro had won 6.4 million votes and Gonzalez had 5.3 million. National Electoral Council President Elvis Amoroso attributed the delay in filing complete results to attacks on the “technological infrastructure.”

    The tally sheets, known in Spanish as “actas,” are lengthy printouts that resemble shopping receipts. They have long been considered the ultimate proof of election results in Venezuela.

    The AP could not independently verify the authenticity of the 24,532 tally sheets provided by the opposition. The AP successfully extracted data from 96% of the provided vote tallies, with the remaining 4% of images too poor to parse.

    The Biden administration has thrown its support firmly behind the opposition. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a statement Thursday citing “overwhelming evidence that González was the victor and discrediting the National Electoral Council’s official results.

    González posted a message on X thanking the U.S. “for recognizing the will of the Venezuelan people.”

    Maduro said Friday that the U.S. should stay out of Venezuela’s politics.

    Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest proven crude reserves and once boasted Latin America’s most advanced economy, but it entered into a free fall marked by 130,000% hyperinflation and widespread shortages after Maduro took the helm in 2013. More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2014, the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history.

    U.S. oil sanctions have only deepened the misery, and the Biden administration — which had been easing those restrictions — is now likely to ramp them up again unless Maduro agrees to some sort of transition.

    There has been a flurry of diplomatic efforts by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to convince Maduro to allow an impartial audit of the vote. On Thursday, the governments of the three countries issued a joint statement calling on Venezuela’s electoral authorities “to move forward expeditiously and publicly release” detailed voting data.

    ___

    Associated Press photographer Matias Delacroix contributed.

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  • Video: Harris Fuels Hope and Skepticism With Georgia’s South Asian Voters

    Video: Harris Fuels Hope and Skepticism With Georgia’s South Asian Voters

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    It’s just after 6 a.m. at a mosque in suburban Georgia, and the topic of discussion over breakfast is Kamala Harris. “Let’s see what happens, right. The South Asian community knows that they have a really pivotal role and that their turnout, their engagement could shift the election one way or another. Asian Americans are the fastest-growing voting bloc in Georgia, and South Asians make up the largest percentage of that group, totaling around 86,000 eligible voters. Joe Biden won the state by just over 11,000 votes in 2020. “The path to the White House runs right through this state.” Kamala Harris is presumed to be the first Democratic presidential nominee of South Asian heritage. “There’s so much hope that I feel now.” Here in Fulton County, we found new enthusiasm, but also some waiting to see where Harris will stand on the issues. “I’m definitely re-engaged. I consider myself an independent. I’m not sure if I’m going to vote before Kamala Harris entered because I was so unenthusiastic about both candidates.” “But I don’t know if anyone really expected how exhilarating it would feel. As a South Asian, you know, I feel a connection to her. This time, I would like to be more engaged and actually doing something besides just voting.” Parul Kapur is now hosting meetups with friends as she prepares to organize a fund-raiser for the very first time. When did you guys hear and what was your reaction when you heard that?” “She’s been a U.S senator. Now, she’s been vice president for four years. That’s a pretty impressive résumé. But deep inside, I was like someone who looks like me is going to be the next president of the United States.” “That’s very true.” “A lot of people, I think, were, you know, like going to vote for somebody like Biden regardless because they were scared. And, you know, it felt very much like they were going to bite the bullet. Whereas now people feel energized and you want to vote.” And while shared identity resonates for the group, the conversation ultimately shifts back to policy. “And somehow we forget that there is a middle class for a lot of us. Taxation, inflation, all those are important issues for us.” “The economy, essentially, which is what I think ultimately this election is going to come down to anyway.” Back at the mosque, the conversation turns to one specific issue: the war in Gaza. “The Asian American community doesn’t always fit into a nice box along the political spectrum. We all carry different identities. I’m a Muslim American. And how I see the election is kind of a combination of these different factors. Gaza is still the primary issue that I’m looking to see where Kamala Harris will differentiate herself from Biden.” Asian American voters here decisively chose Biden in 2020, but in the four years since, their support for him has declined. These voters could be crucial for Harris to win or lose the state. “She has the potential to change the equation of how things are done for the better. The entire society is changing. I have seen that because when I arrived is when the change started, right — ’69 until today. That has been what they call the ‘browning of America,’ Asians, Indians.” “It’s an open conversation. So I think the Asian American vote, they can be convinced to switch loyalty for candidates and parties. I’m pretty confident I’ll vote now, but I’m going to leave a little bit of wiggle room because so much can happen.”

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    Isabelle Qian, Alex Pena and Amy Marino

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  • Senate Democrats tee up vote on child tax credit in election-year pitch to families

    Senate Democrats tee up vote on child tax credit in election-year pitch to families

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    WASHINGTON — Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer is daring Republicans to vote against a bipartisan tax cut package aimed at expanding the child tax credit for millions of families and restoring some business tax breaks.

    And Republicans appear prepared to do just that on Thursday, with many arguing they will have more leverage to enact the tax changes they want if their party wins control of the White House and both chambers of Congress in November’s election. Large parts of the tax cut package passed under Republican control in 2017 are set to expire after 2025, pushing tax issues to the forefront.

    “I think we can do better next year,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.

    It’s expected to be the final vote senators will take before heading home for the August recess, and underscores how both parties are trying to spotlight issues they believe will play well with voters in November. Democrats are also looking to counter assertions from Donald Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, that Democrats are “anti-family.”

    “The American people will get a chance to see which senators in reality support tax relief for parents and businesses and housing, and who opposes it,” Schumer said.

    The roughly $79 billion package passed the House overwhelmingly in January, 357-70. But it has stalled in the Senate. The procedural vote to advance the measure will require support from 60 senators, which is unlikely.

    The bill was fashioned through negotiations by Rep. Jason Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, and Sen. Ron Wyden, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. It would restore full, immediate deductions that businesses can take for the purchase of new equipment and machinery, and for domestic research and development expenses. It also would help more low-income families take fuller advantage of the child tax credit.

    The changes in the child tax credit would lift as many as 500,000 out of poverty when the proposal is fully in effect, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. In all, the families of some 16 million children would benefit, the liberal think tank said.

    The bill is paid for by speeding up the cut-off date by which companies could submit retroactive claims for employees they kept on the payrolls during the COVID pandemic. The IRS has said a significant majority of retroactive claims are at a high risk of fraud.

    With the bill seemingly lacking the support necessary to overcome procedural hurdles, Schumer had opted for months not to bring it up for a vote. But election season has presented an opportunity for Democrats to lean in on the issue as well as put the spotlight on Vance. Schumer even referenced “the junior senator from Ohio” when speaking on the Senate floor, leaving no doubt he’s part of their thinking in holding the vote.

    Vance claimed in a Fox News interview that Vice President Kamala Harris was calling for an end to the child tax credit. But the Biden administration led the effort to bolster the child tax credit during the pandemic and fought unsuccessfully to continue the expansion, which temporarily increased the credit to $3,000 a year, added 17-year-olds and boosted the amount to $3,600 for children under six years old.

    Schumer called Vance’s claim “plain old nonsense” and said the 2021 expansion was one of the most significant achievements Democrats have had under the Biden-Harris administration.

    Vance also suggested in 2021 that political leaders who didn’t have biological children “don’t really have a direct stake” in the country. He doubled down on those remarks after clips of the remarks resurfaced by saying earlier this week on the SiriusXM radio program “The Megyn Kelly Show” that the Democratic Party had become “anti-family and anti-child.”

    “The Republicans have been giving big speeches about how they are pro-family and pro-kids, and they say it again and again. But when it comes time for a vote, they’re AWOL,” Wyden said. “Now, they are going to get the vote, and we’re going to be able to see who is going to be there for the kids and the families.”

    Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, both in competitive races this fall, spoke extensively on the Senate floor in support of the bill. But Cornyn, the Texas Republican, called Thursday’s action the latest in a series of “show votes” designed to fail but would provide Democrats “with a talking point or two on the campaign trail.” He said the bill should have been the subject of a Senate committee hearing that would allow lawmakers to shape it before it came to the floor.

    Sen. John Thune, the second-ranking Senate Republican, said he expects a few Republicans to vote for the measure, but he anticipated that it would not be enough to meet the 60-vote threshold needed to advance the bill. He said there are good things in the legislation, but “if we’re in a position to do this next year, it will be a much stronger bill.”

    Thune said it won’t be hard for Republicans to rebuff criticism that they were insufficiently supportive of tax relief for businesses and families.

    “There are certain issues that voters instinctively know that Republicans are better on,” Thune said. “They may try to make that argument in a political ad, but I think it’ll be hard to sustain when most voters know that it was the Republicans in 2017 that cut taxes and that next year it will be Republicans who extend those tax cuts if we have the majority.”

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  • Election Deniers Are Ramping Up Efforts to Disenfranchise US Voters

    Election Deniers Are Ramping Up Efforts to Disenfranchise US Voters

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    EIN advises its network of state-level groups to conduct voter roll challenges using EagleAI, a tool designed to automatically create lists of ineligible voters. Activists in EIN’s network across the country take these lists and manually review them, and, at times, conduct door-to-door canvasses to back up their challenges—a practice that has been condemned for intimidating voters. Experts have also already pointed out flaws with EagleAI’s system: Tiny errors in name spellings, such as missing commas, can lead to names being removed from voter rolls incorrectly. The software is also reportedly facing numerous technical issues. Despite this, one county in Georgia has already signed a contract with the company to use the tool as part of its voter roll maintenance.

    Leaked documents published this month by Documented and ProPublica show that one of the funders of EagleAI is Ziklag, a ultrasecretive group of wealthy individuals dedicated to pushing an overtly Christian nationalist agenda. According to an internal video obtained by ProPublica, Ziklag plans to invest $800,000 in “EagleAI’s clean the rolls project,” and one of the group’s goals is to “remove up to one million ineligible registrations and around 280,000 ineligible voters” in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

    Mitchell and EIN are also working with a number of other groups that are supporting mass voter roll challenges. One of those is VoteRef, which has obtained and published voter rolls for more than 161 million voters in 31 states. The group is run by Gina Swoboda, a former Trump campaign official and current chair of the Republican Party in Arizona. State election officials have said that VoteRef’s claims of discrepancies in voter rolls are “fundamentally incorrect,” and highlighted significant privacy concerns about the data that VoteRef is making publicly available.

    EIN is also working with Check My Vote, a website that hosts publicly available voter rolls and highlights what it calls irregularities, urging those using the system to create walk lists that activists can use to conduct door-to-door canvassing before filing voter challenges with a template available to download from the site.

    Mitchell and EIN did not respond to a request for comment.

    “These groups and the broader election denial movement have been building these structures, building these projects, over the course of many, many months and years, in preparation for this moment,” says ​Brendan Fischer, deputy executive director at Documented. “And the pieces are finally falling into place, where they can begin to file these mass challenges for voter eligibility.”

    Voter rolls are notoriously difficult to maintain, given federal laws that prevent citizens from being removed years after they may have left the jurisdiction. But there is no evidence to back up the claims that this issue causes voter fraud. And election administrators tell WIRED that the processes in place to ensure voter rolls are as accurate as possible already work.

    “[We are] aware of an increase in voter registration challenges over the past year, often submitted by a single individual or entity, on the basis that a voter may no longer be residing at the address of registration,” says Matt Heckel, press secretary for the Pennsylvania Department of State. “These challenges are an attempt to circumvent the list maintenance processes that are carefully prescribed by state and federal law.”

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    David Gilbert

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  • A Senate Bill Would Radically Improve Voting Machine Security

    A Senate Bill Would Radically Improve Voting Machine Security

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    Congress is moving closer to putting US election technology under a stricter cybersecurity microscope.

    Embedded inside this year’s Intelligence Authorization Act, which funds intelligence agencies like the CIA, is the Strengthening Election Cybersecurity to Uphold Respect for Elections through Independent Testing (SECURE IT) Act, which would require penetration testing of federally certified voting machines and ballot scanners, and create a pilot program exploring the feasibility of letting independent researchers probe all manner of election systems for flaws.

    The SECURE IT Act—originally introduced by US senators Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, and Susan Collins, a Maine Republican—could significantly improve the security of key election technology in an era when foreign adversaries remain intent on undermining US democracy.

    “This legislation will empower our researchers to think the way our adversaries do, and expose hidden vulnerabilities by attempting to penetrate our systems with the same tools and methods used by bad actors,” says Warner, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee.

    The new push for these programs highlights the fact that even as election security concerns have shifted to more visceral dangers such as death threats against county clerks, polling-place violence, and AI-fueled disinformation, lawmakers remain worried about the possibility of hackers infiltrating voting systems, which are considered critical infrastructure but are lightly regulated compared to other vital industries.

    Russia’s interference in the 2016 election shined a spotlight on threats to voting machines, and despite major improvements, even modern machines can be flawed. Experts have consistently pushed for tighter federal standards and more independent security audits. The new bill attempts to address those concerns in two ways.

    The first provision would codify the US Election Assistance Commission’s recent addition of penetration testing to its certification process. (The EAC recently overhauled its certification standards, which cover voting machines and ballot scanners and which many states require their vendors to meet.)

    While previous testing simply verified whether machines contained particular defensive measures—such as antivirus software and data encryption—penetration testing will simulate real-world attacks meant to find and exploit the machines’ weaknesses, potentially yielding new information about serious software flaws.

    “People have been calling for mandatory [penetration] testing for years for election equipment,” says Edgardo Cortés, a former Virginia elections commissioner and an adviser to the election security team at New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice.

    The bill’s second provision would require the EAC to experiment with a vulnerability disclosure program for election technology—including systems that are not subject to federal testing, such as voter registration databases and election results websites.

    Vulnerability disclosure programs are essentially treasure hunts for civic-minded cyber experts. Vetted participants, operating under clear rules about which of the organizer’s computer systems are fair game, attempt to hack those systems by finding flaws in how they are designed or configured. They then report any flaws they discover to the organizer, sometimes for a reward.

    By allowing a diverse group of experts to hunt for bugs in a wide range of election systems, the Warner–Collins bill could dramatically expand scrutiny of the machinery of US democracy.

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    Eric Geller

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  • Kennedy and West third-party ballot drives are pushed by secretive groups and Republican donors

    Kennedy and West third-party ballot drives are pushed by secretive groups and Republican donors

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    WASHINGTON — Libertarians in Colorado want to put Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot to create chaos.

    Petition drives for Cornel West in Virginia and North Carolina are being run by groups with Republican ties.

    And in Arizona, a convicted fraudster who’s been repeatedly investigated for using deceptive tactics to gather signatures for conservative groups is also working on West’s behalf.

    With early voting for the November presidential election set to begin in late September in some states, there are signs across the country that groups are trying to affect the outcome by using deceptive means — and in most cases in ways that would benefit Republican Donald Trump. Their aim is to to whittle away President Joe Biden’s standing with the Democratic Party’s base by offering left-leaning, third-party alternatives who could siphon off a few thousand protest votes in close swing state contests.

    Spoiler candidates are as old as representative democracy. But in a polarized country in which many Americans have voiced disapproval for both Biden and Trump, the zeal with which Trump’s supporters and allies have lent assistance to third-party candidacies adds a new dimension that’s deeply troubling to Democrats.

    Since his 2016 campaign, Trump has railed against the specter of voter fraud and falsely accused Democrats of “rigging” elections, which he blames for his 2020 loss, a claim rejected in more than 60 court cases and by his own attorney general. Now, it’s his allies who are pushing questionable ways to tilt the vote in his favor.

    “We’ve known for years that Donald Trump can’t get 50% of the vote. His people know that. And they know they need to find ways to win. One way to do that is propping up third-party candidates,” said Josh Schwerin, a spokesman for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, which many Democrats believe she lost because the Green Party played spoiler.

    West’s campaign did not respond to an email seeking comment. The Trump and Kennedy campaigns also did not respond to inquiries.

    Democrats have focused closely this year on the threat of third-party candidates, intent on avoiding Clinton’s fate. Indicators of Republican involvement were quick to surface.

    In April, The Washington Post reported pro-Trump activist Scott Presler was gathering signatures for West outside a Trump rally in North Carolina. In a video posted online, Presler described West, an academic, as a “far-left Marxist” who “if we get him on the ballot he could take a percentage point away” from Biden.

    But Republican involvement in getting West and his Justice For All party on the state ballot runs far deeper.

    At the beginning of June, West had been largely absent from the campaign trail and his political operation was $30,000 in debt, disclosures show. He had spent just $2,400 this year to gather the signatures needed to qualify for the ballot in states across the U.S.

    But then, Justice For All submitted well over the 13,000 signatures needed. State government emails obtained by The Associated Press show current and former employees of Blitz Canvassing, a Republican firm that earned millions of dollars doing work for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, helped West pull off the feat. The emails, previously reported by NBC News, show the employees affiliated with Blitz Canvassing were the designated representatives to pick up and drop off petitions for West’s campaign.

    It’s unclear who paid the firm, which isn’t listed as a paid vendor in West’s campaign finance reports. Representatives for Blitz Canvassing didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    The GOP-linked signature collection effort on West’s behalf isn’t limited to North Carolina.

    Signature gatherers in suburban Washington were witnessed asking people in a Target parking lot to sign a petition to “get Donald Trump off the ballot,” NBC4 reported. The signatures were actually being collected to help get West on the Virginia ballot, and one of the workers said they would be handed off to the state GOP, the TV station reported.

    Last month, more than 80 paid out-of-state signature gathers descended on the pivotal battleground of Arizona to collect signatures for West, state records show. Many of the workers listed Wells Marketing, a mysterious Missouri limited liability company, as their employer.

    The company, which didn’t respond to a request for comment, is closely affiliated with Mark Jacoby, a signature gathering operative from California with a longstanding reputation for using deceptive tactics and who was convicted in 2009 of voter registration fraud, court records show.

    In 2020, Jacoby worked to gather signatures to place the rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, on the ballot. Ye’s quixotic presidential campaign was widely viewed by Democrats as an effort to dilute Biden’s popularity with Black voters.

    Jacoby’s firm, Let the Voters Decide, was investigated for using dubious signature gathering tactics during a 2020 petition drive in Michigan that sought to roll back some of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s emergency powers during the coronavirus pandemic. No charges came of the investigation, though, in a report, state Attorney General Dana Nessel said investigators “found evidence of sleazy practices and shady activity.”

    For Jacoby, it was nothing new.

    He was accused in 2008 of tricking voters into registering with the California Republican Party by telling them they were signing an initiative to strengthen penalties for child molesters, the Los Angeles Times reported.

    In 2006, signature gatherers told Massachusetts lawmakers that Jacoby instructed them to use deceptive tactics, like asking people to sign a petition to allow for the sale of wine in grocery stores. They were actually gathering signatures to roll back the state’s historic gay marriage court ruling, the workers testified during a hearing.

    Legal experts say West’s reliance on an army of paid signature gatherers financed by an outside party could cause him legal trouble because it could be viewed as an in-kind contribution to his campaign.

    “The short answer is, yes, there is a potential issue,” said Adav Noti, a former Federal Election Commission attorney who’s now executive director of the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center in Washington. Noti added, however, that it’s “complicated” and the success of any campaign finance complaint would heavily depend on specifics because “the law on this issue is really messy.”

    West is hardly Democrats’ only concern.

    Kennedy, a scion of one of America’s most storied political families, may have entered the race as a Democrat challenging Biden. But even before his break with the party deeply intertwined with his family name, he drew an inordinate amount of attention from Republicans.

    Republican megadonor Timothy Mellon, himself the heir to a storied Gilded Age fortune, donated $25 million to a super political action committee supporting Kennedy, records show. Other major pro-Trump donors have followed suit, including Leila Centner, who donated $1 million to the Kennedy super PAC, as well as arch conservative donor Elizabeth Uihlein, who gave $3,300 to his campaign.

    Kennedy, an avowed environmentalist, has long been a champion of liberal causes. But he also has been a leading proponent of vaccine conspiracy theories, which helped him rise to greater prominence during the pandemic and earned him admiration from conservatives like former Fox News Channel host Tucker Carlson.

    Democrats are worried Kennedy still has enough left-wing star appeal that he could peel off voters from Biden. And that appears to have been part of the calculus when Colorado’s Libertarian Party reached an agreement to let him use its ballot line.

    Hannah Goodman, the chairwoman for the Colorado Libertarians, did not respond to a request for comment. But in interviews posted to YouTube, Goodman, who has said she intends to vote for Trump, expressed disdain for Democrats and said she would like to give them a “taste of that medicine.”

    “The idea is we could essentially leverage this to make a swing state situation and become real viable players,” Goodman said in an interview with the website Free State Colorado. “I am tired of living under a Democratic monopoly.”

    Legal experts say elections will continue to be susceptible to dirty tricks and chicanery unless the more states adopt different methods of casting a ballot, like ranked choice voting, which allows voters to weight their candidate preferences.

    “Unfortunately, we obviously cannot put in place a better electoral system for this year’s election, and thus have to hope that no third-party or independent candidate acts as a spoiler,” said Edward Foley, a law professor at the Ohio State University who specializes in elections.

    ___

    Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

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  • ‘For the first time, New York is in play’: LI GOP leaders talk election strategy before RNC

    ‘For the first time, New York is in play’: LI GOP leaders talk election strategy before RNC

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    President Joe Biden is facing a week of reckoning as a growing number of lifelong and top House Democrats are calling for him to step down just days before thousands of the opposing party congregate and strategize its next moves at the Republican National Convention.

    The Republican National Convention (RNC) is set in Milwaukee for July 15-18 with an estimated 50,000 delegates, media, law enforcement, staff and visitors expected to attend, according to the city.

    It is where the GOP will officially nominate former President Donald Trump as the party’s running candidate for President, as well as Vice President. While the shortlist includes Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Gov. Doug Burgum (R), Trump has yet to announce his final decision.

    “I haven’t made a final decision, but I have some ideas as to where we’re going,” Trump said on Monday during an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, “And a little bit, you know, we wanted to see what they’re doing, to be honest.”

    Long Island’s Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman still remembers his first RNC in 1976 under Gerald Ford and the last convention in August 2020 during the COVID pandemic with only 300 members in attendance.

    Blakeman told NBC New York, during an interview at the county executive office in Mineola, that he “communicates with Trump on a regular basis” and that the former president is “very fond of Nassau County” as Long Island was taken by a red wave in last year’s local elections.

    Typically, New York is considered a giveaway for the Democrats, but for the first time, Blakeman says not to count out the state in the 2024 presidential election.

    “For the first time, since Ronald Reagan, New York is in play in the general election,” Blakeman said, noting top national topics like immigration policies and the migrant crisis that he says is impacting the greater New York City area.

    Congressman Anthony D’Esposito represents New York’s fourth district and says he has met with a handful of school board presidents and the Superintendent Association of Long Island on the incoming migrant children in education.

    D’Esposito, a Republican, recalled on how those educators have felt the strain on the budget and resources, which may already be stretched thin.

    “You’re getting ten to 15 new students into your school district throughout the year who need English as a second language, who need more resources, who need more teachers — that’s out of their budget,” Rep. D’Esposito told NBC 4 in an interview in Long Beach.

    When asked who could step up to the plate alongside Trump, Blakeman noted Sen Rubio and Glenn Youngkin, the Republican governor of Virginia.

    All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election with Republicans having a 220-213 majority. Three of four Long Island districts are red, leaving NY-03 blue from February’s special election in which voters elected Congressman Tom Suozzi in the wake of the George Santos fiasco.

    Blakeman claims Rep. Suozzi “tries to portray himself as a Republican” and is “right of center,” which Blakeman suggests is called out when the campaign heats up against Mike LiPertri Jr., the Republican candidate for Congress in New York’s 3rd congressional district.

    NBC New York reached out to Congressman Suozzi’s office for comment and Kim Delvin, senior advisor for Suozzi for Congress, said: “Petty partisan attacks don’t reflect reality. Congressman Suozzi has built a coalition of Democrats, Republicans and Independents who embrace his problem-solving approach, and he’s making good on his pledge to bring order to the border, repeal the SALT cap and work across the aisle to solve the big problems his constituents face,”

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    Linda Gaudino

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  • Arkansas election officials reject petitions submitted for an abortion-rights ballot measure

    Arkansas election officials reject petitions submitted for an abortion-rights ballot measure

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    Arkansas election officials reject petitions submitted for an abortion-rights ballot measure

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  • France’s Macron wanted to leave his mark on Europe — he may have just ruined his legacy

    France’s Macron wanted to leave his mark on Europe — he may have just ruined his legacy

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    French President Emmanuel Macron on a campaign poster back in 2022.

    Sebastien Salom-gomis | Afp | Getty Images

    French President Emmanuel Macron’s failed snap election gamble is likely to take a large toll on his political ambitions and legacy, analysts say — and to weaken the power and influence he has sought to build in Europe in recent years.

    The final round of a snap parliamentary election in France last weekend — called by Macron after his center-right party was trounced in recent European Parliament elections — led to a surprise win for the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, thwarting an expected victory for the far-right National Rally party.

    Center-right Macron, who will remain in office until 2027, now faces the prospect of having to work with a coalition or technocratic government — and a prime minister — of a different political ilk, likely from the left-wing NFF. This is set to make governing France, the passing of legislation and reforms, potentially difficult.

    Not only did Macron’s high-stakes gamble with the snap poll not pay off, analysts note, but the French head of state has damaged his political standing and legacy in Europe, where he has sought a key leadership role.

    “In terms of his legacy, he will be in for a real political fight,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told CNBC on Monday.

    “Macron remains the towering figure and kingmaker. It will be him who chooses the prime minister, it’ll be Macron that travels to Washington for the 75th [anniversary] NATO summit this week, but those who are suggesting that his gamble paid off [are wrong],” Fordham said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

    “Yes, he was able to keep the far right from first place but they’ve increased their seat share — and now he has to deal with this unruly left and this unruly right,” she added.

    “I’m afraid it probably does [weaken him on a global stage] at a time which is unfortunate for the cohesion of the European Union,” she added.

    Macron looked to be the EU’s leader

    Since taking office in 2017 after the departure of his former boss, then-Socialist President Francois Hollande, Macron has tried to position himself at the center of Europe’s political decision-making — particularly since the departure of the European Union’s most central leader, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in 2021.

    Macron has pushed for closer political and economic integration in the EU, promoting the concept of European sovereignty, economic security and competitiveness, as well as pushing for a more integrated and autonomous European defense strategy that advocates for a “true, European army.”

    He’s credited with creating the European Political Community, bringing leaders from across 50 states in the region to discuss shared challenges and to coordinate joint responses. Macron has also been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, putting pressure on a seemingly more reluctant Germany — and on fellow NATO members — when it came to the supply of Western weapons to Kyiv for it to fight back against Russia.

    He even pitched the possibility of French troops helping on the ground, albeit controversially, going beyond other allies’ pledges.

    French President Emmanuel Macron and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy react after signing an agreement, February 16, 2024 at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France. 

    Pool | Via Reuters

    Only time will tell what France’s political makeup will be in the coming months, but the country is likely to experience weeks of political wrangling and potential deadlock as the left-wing faction angles itself to lead a new government, and to place one of its own politicians as prime minister.

    Although the decision lies in Macron’s hands, he is likely to come under pressure to select a PM from the left-wing bloc, given it won the largest number of seats in the vote. He might even come under pressure to select Hollande, who ran for the NFP and stands as a strong candidate.

    For now, Macron has rejected his current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s resignation and on Monday asked him to stay in the post “to ensure the country’s stability.”

    Political instability in France, the euro zone’s second-largest economy after Germany, does not come at a good time in the global political cycle, Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz, told CNBC on Monday. Subran stressed that it was vital that Macron was aligned with the future prime minister.

    “France is not that weak now, but it is not very good because we are in a state-craft situation with the U.S. and China and imagine what could happen in November if [Republican presidential candidate Donald] Trump gets reelected — we’re going to be tested and tested again and again,” Subran told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed in Paris.

    “I think it’s going to be really important that Macron secures the alignment with his prime minister before he says anything in Brussels or Strasbourg,“ Subran said. “He’ll have to make sure there’s a paper-thin divide between he and his prime minister when it comes to international issues like Russia, trade, industrial policies and working toward more flexible fiscal policies for France and for the other member countries in Europe.”

    When it comes to Macron’s position in Europe, Subran said it would now “be hard for him to lecture and to sow the seeds of grand projects for Europe when he’s going to be weak domestically.”

    “If [National Rally figurehead Marine] Le Pen races to power in 2027, it’s going to be a very tainted legacy,” he added.

    Mixed legacy

    While Macron is likely to be praised in some quarters for his pro-European, pro-business and pro-trade approach in office, his legacy at home may be more mixed after this snap election — a decision seen by many as a strategic miscalculation, brought about by Macron’s perceived lack of understanding of voter sentiment and, some say, his perceived arrogance.

    It’s a criticism he’s often faced, as well as accusations of failing to understand the everyday concerns of many French citizens, particularly those living outside the main urban centers.

    Mass protest movements such as the “Yellow Vest” action that emerged in 2018 were largely fueled by anger among large sectors of the population at rising fuel and living costs and economic inequality, and what they perceived to be an out-of-touch, elitist political establishment.

    A police vehicle sprays water cannon at protesters during an anti-government demonstration in Paris on January 26, 2019.

    NurPhoto | NurPhoto | Getty Images

    The rise of the far-right National Rally party is also symptomatic of voter concerns, rightly or wrongly, over immigration and what many supporters see as the erosion of French identity and culture.

    His decision in June to call a snap election after his centrist Renaissance party was trounced in the European Parliament elections, was widely seen as a high-stakes gamble. It hasn’t paid off, and France’s uncertain political outlook will likely perturb France’s European partners, one French political scientist told CNBC.

    “Imagine the EU and international partners and allies of France. What must they think of that [decision to call a snap election]?” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, said ahead of the final round of the election on Sunday.

    “They must think, ‘what an amateur. What a mistake. What a mess.’ And it is a mess, which is now affecting us all. Because if France isn’t able to be a reliable partner in the EU when it comes to big issues of the world … people will not forget that it was Macron who created the situation in the first place.”

    French President Emmanuel Macron reviews troops that will take part in the Bastille Day parade, July 2, 2024 in Paris, France. 

    Aurelien Morissard | Via Reuters

    He told CNBC that, in France, most people believed that Macron had, in plain English, brought about a big political mess.

    “Everyone in France today, absolutely everyone — I’m yet to hear or meet someone who says it was a great idea — everyone says it’s a major cock-up. It was an unnecessary gamble which badly, very badly, backfired. He didn’t have an absolute majority before the dissolution [of parliament, the National Assembly] but his party was the main party in the National Assembly … so why did he have to dissolve parliament? Only he knows why he did that.”

    “On a scale of political blunders. I would probably give it a 10 out of 10,” Marlière said.

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  • French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is investigated over alleged illicit financing in 2022 vote

    French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is investigated over alleged illicit financing in 2022 vote

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    Far-right National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen answers reporters after the second round of the legislative election, Sunday, July 7, 2024 at the party election night headquarters in Paris. A coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France’s snap elections won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to polling projections Sunday. The surprise projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second and the far right in third. (AP Photo/Louise Delmotte)

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  • Leaders across Europe express relief mixed with concern about the French election result

    Leaders across Europe express relief mixed with concern about the French election result

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    BERLIN — Leaders across Europe reacted with relief but also some concern to the result of the French legislative election, which leaves a key European Union country facing the prospect of a hung parliament and political paralysis.

    Relief, because the far-right National Rally didn’t come out as the strongest party, as many pro-European leaders had feared — but also concern, because no political grouping has a majority in the National Assembly.

    Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, which together with France has long been viewed as the engine of European integration, expressed relief Monday that the nationalist far right hadn’t topped the polls.

    The chancellor said it would have been a major challenge if French President Emmanuel Macron would have had to work with a right-wing populist party, German news agency dpa reported.

    “That has now been averted,” the chancellor said.

    Scholz expressed hope that Macron and the newly elected members of parliament would succeed in forming a stable government.

    “In any case, I am also pleased with regard to the important Franco-German friendship, and I can personally say that I am also pleased with regard to the good personal relationship that I have with the French president,” Scholz emphasized.

    “Germany has an interest in the success of the European Union like no other country,” the German chancellor said. “This is only possible together with France.”

    After the first round of the French election last month, in which the National Rally had gained the most votes, Scholz had spoken publicly of his worry that a second-round victory for the nationalist party could affect French-German relations.

    Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council president, sounded even more euphoric in his reaction to the election outcome.

    “In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw,” he posted on X late Sunday.

    Final results in France show that a leftist coalition that came together to try to keep the far right from power won the most parliamentary seats in the runoff election. There was high voter turnout Sunday.

    Macron’s centrist alliance came in second. The far right, which came in third, drastically increased the number of seats it holds in parliament, but fell far short of expectations.

    Several countries in the EU, including Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden, have veered to the right in national elections as voters cast their ballots for euroskeptic parties promising nationalist solutions for European issues such as inflation, migration, and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that has brought in millions of refugees looking for shelter.

    Some pro-European politicians warned that the French result was nothing to celebrate.

    “The march of the right-wing nationalists and right-wing extremists has been stopped. This is to the great credit of the French,” Michael Roth, a German foreign policy expert and national lawmaker with Scholz’s Social Democrats, told daily newspaper Tagesspiegel.

    “But it is still far too early to give the all clear, because the nationalist populists on the right and left are stronger than ever,” he added. “The center is weaker than ever. Emmanuel Macron has therefore failed resoundingly.”

    While it’s not clear yet which party will provide the next prime minister, Macron will still hold some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense, in line with the French Constitution. He has a presidential mandate until 2027 and has said he won’t step down before the end of his term.

    Nonetheless, the French president has been weakened by Sunday’s vote and that will have repercussions for Germany and all of Europe, said Ronja Kempin, an analyst of Franco-German relations at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

    “I think that Germany will have to adapt to the new balance of power in France,” Kempin said. “We have a weakened president who is much more forced to listen and react to the parliamentary majority, who can no longer act as freely as he has done for the last seven years.”

    In Italy, the main ally of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, far-right populist League leader Matteo Salvini, lauded her party’s overall result in parliament as its best-ever and criticized what he called Macron’s “all against Le Pen” drive to deprive her party of a governing majority.

    He claimed that there were “thugs attacking the police with stones” in several cities after the results were released, blaming them on “communists and social centers, pro-Islamists and antisemites.”

    Salvini is a junior partner in the right-wing government of Premier Giorgia Meloni and has long shared Le Pen’s anti-migrant positions.

    ——

    Associated Press journalists from across Europe contributed to this story.

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  • Tokyo Gov. Koike declares victory after exit polls project her winning a third term

    Tokyo Gov. Koike declares victory after exit polls project her winning a third term

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    TOKYO — Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike declared victory Sunday as exit polls projected her winning a third four-year term as head of Japan’s influential capital.

    The vote was also seen as a test for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s governing party, which supports Koike, the first woman to lead the Tokyo city government.

    Tokyo, a city of 13.5 million people with outsized political and cultural power and a budget equaling some nations, is one of Japan’s most influential political posts. A record 55 candidates challenged Koike, and one of the top contenders was also a woman — a liberal-leaning former lawmaker who uses only her first name, Renho, and was backed by opposition parties.

    With about 40% of the votes counted, Koike led by more than 1.29 million votes, twice as many as her top rivals Ishimaru and Renho, who had 664,000 and 603,000 votes, respectively. Official results are expected early Monday.

    Minutes after exit polls projecting her victory, Koike showed up at her campaign headquarters in Tokyo and celebrated by thanking the voters who chose her.

    “I believe the voters gave me a mandate for my accomplishment in the past eight years,” Koike said. She pledged to push for more reforms and support for Tokyo residents.

    “I’m fully aware of my heavy responsibility,” she said. “I will tackle my third term with all my body and soul.”

    A win by Koike is a relief for Kishida’s conservative governing party, which she has long been affiliated with. Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, unofficially backed her campaign.

    Renho, running as an independent but supported by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Japanese Communist Party, criticized Koike’s ties with Kishida’s party, which has been hit by a widespread slush fund scandal. A victory for Renho would have been a major setback for Kishida’s chances in the party’s leadership vote in September.

    LDP acting secretary general Tomomi Inada, in an interview with NHK television, welcomed Koike’s victory as a “positive development” for the governing party, but stressed the need for the LDP to firmly push its own reforms.

    While the two high-profile women gathered national attention, Shinji Ishimaru, a former mayor of Akitakata town in Hiroshima prefecture, was seen to have gained popularity among young voters.

    The main issues in the campaign included measures to improve the economy, disaster resilience for Tokyo and low birth numbers. When Japan’s national fertility rate fell to a record low 1.2 babies per woman last year, Tokyo’s 0.99 rate was the lowest for the country.

    Koike’s policies focused on providing subsidies for married parents expecting babies and those raising children. Renho called for increased support for young people to address their concerns about jobs and financial stability, arguing that would help improve prospects for marrying and having families.

    Another focus of attention was a controversial redevelopment of Tokyo’s beloved park area, Jingu Gaien, which Koike approved but later faced criticism over its lack of transparency and suspected environmental impact.

    Koike, a stylish and media savvy former TV newscaster, was first elected to parliament in 1992 at age 40. She served in a number of key Cabinet posts, including environment and defense ministers, as part of the long-reining Liberal Democratic Party.

    Renho, known for voicing sharp questions in parliament, was born to a Japanese mother and Taiwanese father and doesn’t use her family name. A former model and newscaster, she was elected to parliament in 2004 and served as administrative reform minister in the government led by the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan.

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  • ‘A kind of civil war’: Divided France on alert for unrest amid political earthquake

    ‘A kind of civil war’: Divided France on alert for unrest amid political earthquake

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    Demonstrators take part in a rally against the far right following the announcement of the results of the first round of the French parliamentary elections at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024.

    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    “We’re scared of what might happen,” Amel, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final round of voting in France’s snap election this weekend.

    The vote is being closely watched by all quarters of French society to see if the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally (RN) builds on its initial win in the first round of voting, or whether centrist and leftwing parties have been able to thwart the party’s chances of entering government.

    “It’s a very, very tense time. And it’s the first time that the far right is winning at the first turn [the first round of the ballot]. So it’s a very big deal,” Amel, a therapist who said she will vote for the leftwing New Popular Front, added.

    “We are very anxious and we are trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell people who don’t vote to go and vote, and to try to convince people who vote for the extreme right that they are not a good answer [to France’s problems].”

    France’s far-right RN rejects the “extremist” label, saying it stands up for French values, culture and citizens at a time when many are fed up with France’s political establishment that’s been led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.

    But RN’s opponents and critics warn France is on the brink of a political catastrophe if an overtly anti-immigration, nationalist and euroskeptic party wins a majority in this snap election called by Macron after his party lost heavily against the hard-right in European Parliament elections in June. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has said French voters now have a “moral duty” to halt the party’s advance.

    For young, left-leaning voters like Amel, RN’s surge in voter polls, and the fact it won the most votes in the first round of the election last weekend, are worrying developments that make them fear for France’s societal cohesion.

    “I am worried about the country’s future. I think it’s getting worse and worse,” Amel, who preferred to only give her first name due to the sensitive nature of the situation, said. “It’s going be like a kind of civil war. I hope it will not reach that, but people will just not mix anymore and will be scared of each other. And this is very scary.”

    The snap election has thrown the country’s political polarization into sharp relief as polls ahead of the final round of voting on Sunday imply a deeply divided nation.

    The first round of the election resulted in the far-right RN winning 33% of the vote, with the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) garnering 28% and the coalition of parties supporting Macron (Ensemble, or Together) winning 20% of the vote.

    Left wing supporters react as the results of the first round of French parliamentary elections are announced in Nantes, western France on June 30, 2024. 

    Sebastien Salom-gomis | Afp | Getty Images

    Since the results of the first ballot, parties on the center-right and left have gone all-out to prevent RN’s advance in the second ballot, aiming to prevent a parliamentary majority for the party at all costs. Joining forces in a so-called “Republican Front,” centrists and leftwing parties have withdrawn candidates in many constituencies where one of their candidates was better placed to beat the RN.

    By offering voters a starker choice and fewer options, the anti far-right front hopes that the electorate will vote for the non-RN candidate. Whether it will work remains to be seen and analysts point out that French voters might not take kindly to being directed how to vote, or who to vote for.

    The elections are a ‘mess’

    The final result on Sunday evening — the outcome of a snap election Macron did not need to call — will show just how hard it could be to find a consensus in national politics and government going forward.

    How the nation will react to the result is also uncertain. France is no stranger to civil unrest given the widespread “Yellow Vest” anti-government movement of recent years, and street protests since the first round of voting on June 30.

    France’s Interior Ministry appears to be preparing for more trouble after Sunday’s poll, reportedly ready to deploy around 30,000 officers across France on Sunday night amid fears of violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin is reported to have said 5,000 police would be on duty in Paris and its surrounding areas to “ensure that the radical right and radical left do not take advantage of the situation to cause mayhem.”

    France’s police force has, at times, been accused of being heavy-handed with demonstrators during previous periods of unrest, firing water cannon and tear gas at “yellow vest” demonstrators in 2019.

    Tension rises as demonstrators gather in Place de la Republique, to protest against the rising right-wing movement after the Rassemblement National’s victory in the first round of early general elections in Paris, France on June 30, 2024.

    Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

    A member of the gendarmerie, France’s military force in charge of law enforcement and public order, told CNBC that the “French elections are a mess” and that the “public divide has rarely been so flagrant in France.”

    “People’s opinions are becoming more and more divided and this is felt in everyday life,” the gendarme, who asked to remain anonymous due to the nature of his job, told CNBC.

    The officer — a father of three who’s in his 40s, and a right-leaning voter — said the polarization in French society was “very worrying, but unfortunately normal with the ‘diversity’ of our society.”

    “More and more people with different values and educations are being forced to co-exist, and this clearly doesn’t work,” the officer, who works in Bordeaux in southwestern France, said.

    “I am worried about the country’s future, because we are too generous to people who aren’t willing to integrate and contribute to our society, this can not last.”

    The police officer said he expected civil unrest after the vote, whichever party gained the most votes.

    “There will be civil unrest whoever is elected, this is France and the people speak their mind.”

    Civil unrest possible

    Political experts agree that the current febrile atmosphere of French politics, and antagonism between the main bodies of voters, are the ingredients for further civil unrest.

    “You’ve got here all the recipe for a super-polarized political scene and that, of course, translates into civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

    “If you’ve got only 33-34% of people voting for the far-right it means the rest is wary of that, or completely opposed to it, so that will translate on every level of politics — institutional politics, party politics, the National Assembly, but also in society. You will have a very polarized society in which younger people, ethnic minorities, women, and in particular feminists, would be very worried,” he said.

    Marlière did not discount the possibility of violence on the streets if a far-right party was elected to government. “We’re not there yet. But if there are very unpopular, very antagonizing and very hostile policies to some groups, there will be demonstrations on a scale that you have unrest in the street,” he said.

    Unknown entity

    Like other hard-right parties in Europe, the National Rally has tapped into voter insecurities regarding crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. RN’s 28-year-old leader Jordan Bardella has told voters he will “restore order,” curb immigration and tackle delinquency but he and party figurehead Marine Le Pen have rowed back on some of their more strident promises and rhetoric, back-pedaling over taking France out of NATO, for example, and moderating the party’s traditionally pro-Russian stance.

    Bardella said he would still support the sending of arms to Ukraine but not the deployment of ground troops, as Macron suggested was a possibility.

    Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at the final rally before the June 9 European Parliament election, held at Le Dôme de Paris – Palais des Sports, on June 2, 2024.

    Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    It’s uncertain how many of National Rally’s policies would be enacted even if the party made it into government. The “Republican Front” also appears confident ahead of the second round of voting that its strategy to hurt the RN’s vote share is working.

    An opinion poll published by Ifop on July 3 suggested voters might tend toward a centrist pro-Macron or leftwing candidate rather than the RN candidate if that is the choice they are presented with on the ballot paper on Sunday. If the choice was between a far-left and far-right candidate, however, the picture was more nuanced, showing a split vote.

    Ipsos: Voters never intended to give Rassemblement National absolute majority in first round elections

    Analysts predict that RN is less likely to be able to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, but is still likely to gather the most votes, creating a hung parliament scenario and headache for Macron and uncertainty for France’s political and economic outlook.

    “The political landscape is in turmoil and can’t really work any longer, at least not by the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Mathieu Doiret told CNBC Thursday.

    “We are in a situation so far from our traditions and political habitus that it’s very difficult to adapt to this new situation for every stakeholder.”

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