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Tag: Volatility

  • Can the Fear and Greed Index guide your investments? It’s showing ‘Extreme Fear.’

    The Fear and Greed Index is leaning far into the “Extreme Fear” measure. However, if you know anything about such measures of investor angst, you may ask, “Which Fear and Greed Index?”

    There is one trusted Wall Street measure of uncertainty — the VIX, a volatility tracker from the Chicago Board Options Exchange — and there are other gauges that measure investor sentiment toward cryptocurrencies and gold.

    If you want a sentiment barometer for your portfolio, the investment will determine which Fear and Greed Index you will want to reference.

    Read more: Prediction markets: What they are and how they work

    The VIX is the most widely watched measure of volatility in the stock market, and there has been a recent spike in the VIX.

    Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre and “Asking for a Trend” host Josh Lipton provided an overview of market trends, including the VIX, on late Thursday.

    “The VIX has been trending higher,” Blikre said. “The VIX also historically tends to spike in October and November. So the worst might not be behind us.”

    However, market volatility is not necessarily the same as “fear and greed.” For that, you might look at the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which is showing “Extreme Fear” as of Nov. 21.

    CNN’s Fear and Greed Index measures:

    • Market momentum: By tracking 125-trading-day averages of the S&P 500 index.

    • Stock price strength: This is the number of net new highs or lows on the New York Stock Exchange.

    • Stock price breadth: This is a measure of stocks on the NYSE that are rising compared to those that are falling.

    • Put and call option: Puts are options to sell; calls are options to buy. If the ratio of puts to calls is rising, it’s a signal of bearish investors.

    • Market volatility: Using the VIX, if volatility rises, it’s a sign of fear.

    • Safe haven demand: This is a measure of when Treasury bond returns are higher than stocks over 20 trading days.

    • Junk bond demand: When investors turn to high-yield bonds over government bonds, it’s a sign of greed.

    While financial advisors may recommend only a sweetener of cryptocurrency to a risk-adjusted portfolio, this is the Fear and Greed Index that gets the most swing for the money. Cryptocurrency has a boom-or-bust mentality that changes frequently.

    CoinMarketCap measures crypto market sentiment with its Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which, coincidentally or not, is also in the “Extreme Fear” mode.

    CMC fear index

    CoinMarketCap says it calculates the index using five factors:

    Price momentum: This measures price performance of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins).

    Volatility: The index measures expected volatility over the next 30 days in the trading of bitcoin and ethereum.

    Derivatives market: Like CNN’s stock fear index, CMC considers the put/call ratio — but instead of stocks, it’s looking at the bitcoin and ethereum options markets.

    Market composition: Measures the relative value of bitcoin and that of major stablecoins.

    CMC proprietary data: Includes keyword searches, user engagement metrics, retail interest, and emerging trends.

    Finally, there’s the gold Fear and Greed Index. Stock market pessimists have long advocated stashing a pile of gold bars in the basement.

    JM Bullion sells precious metals and hosts a Fear and Greed Index for Gold, which is now solidly planted in the “Greed” quintile.

    bullion fear

    The price of gold has jumped recently, as the equity and crypto markets have stalled.

    JM Bullion states that its fear index considers physical gold price premiums, gold spot price volatility, social media sentiment, retail activity, and Google Trends for gold search terms.

    Read more: How to invest in gold in 4 steps

    Of course, the answer is that neither fear nor greed should play a part in investment decisions. While it may be entertaining to know if the world thinks it is on fire or merely burning, your life after work needs to be financed.

    Lisa Shalett, wealth management chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, recommends investors maintain a focus on strategic asset class diversification.

    “Real assets, municipal bonds, intermediate-term U.S. treasuries, real estate, and select private infrastructure are our favorite opportunities to add,” Shalett said in a Morgan Stanley video insight in October.

    “Bull markets are meant to be ridden and not timed, and our foundational advice is to be fully invested according to your strategic asset allocation,” she added.

    Read more: Create a stock investing strategy in 3 steps

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  • The stock market’s volatility indicator is signaling a trough in the S&P 500

    The stock market’s volatility indicator is signaling a trough in the S&P 500

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

    • The stock market’s volatility gauge is signaling a trough in the S&P 500.

    • Futures for the CBOE Volatility Index indicated more uncertainty about the near term than longer term.

    • Such backwardation is typically associated with low points in the stock market.

    The CBOE Volatility Index is one of the market’s favorite fear gauges, and it’s flashing an unusual sign that may indicate a low point in stocks.

    Futures contracts tied to the volatility index, also known as the VIX, track the expected amount of market volatility down the line.

    Normally, the futures curve slopes upwards, reflecting more uncertainty about the short term than in the longer term.

    But it turned upside down on Thursday.

    That’s when second-month futures flipped below the front-month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And such so-called backwardation is typically associated with a trough in the S&P 500.

    It speaks to more anxiety about where the stock market is headed amid recession angst, the bond market rout, and mushrooming geopolitical risk.

    But contrarian investors could also view it as a sign the market has gotten so bad that stocks may have finally hit rock bottom, which they would see as an opportunity to buy.

    In September, the volatility index was trading at post-pandemic lows, signalling a strong bull market and fizzling recession fears.

    But in the past couple weeks, a surprise attack by Hamas on Israel, a still hawkish Fed, and relentless volatility in bonds has infused the market with fresh uncertainty.

    In a note issued on Thursday, Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk wrote that credit volatility has increased recently and remains above pre-pandemic levels.

    Read the original article on Business Insider

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  • How Adaptive Leaders Find Success During Market Volatility | Entrepreneur

    How Adaptive Leaders Find Success During Market Volatility | Entrepreneur

    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    If there is one thing we know for certain (other than death and taxes) it’s that volatility and the markets go hand in hand. We’ve seen the stock market crash of 1929, the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, the financial crisis of 2008, the recent surge in blockchain and its related cryptocurrency rise and fall, the Covid-19 pandemic, and global tensions all demonstrate periods of marked volatility.

    My area of specialization, which is the Small-Micro Cap IPO market, has recently been extremely volatile. 2021 emerged as a robust year for initial public offerings, driven by favorable economic conditions, a surge in technological innovation, strong investor appetite and the popularity of SPACs. 2022 and 2023 on the other hand, have been two of the worst years in the IPO sector in past decades, primarily due to significant market corrections influenced by economic factors, geopolitical events and heightened investor caution.

    Throughout my 35-year journey as an entrepreneur, I’ve traversed diverse experiences, from encountering significant hardships — particularly during the tumultuous days of the great recession — to celebrating success. These hardships and setbacks became powerful lessons in resilience, compelling me to explore innovative solutions when adversity was overpowering. In these moments, I gleaned profound insights into the pivotal importance of adaptability.

    In my current role, as the CEO of Exchange Listing, I’ve had the privilege of leading companies through the ever-changing landscape of IPOs, while at the same time scaling my business. Over the years, I’ve learned that in this volatile environment, adaptive leadership is not just a choice; it’s a necessity.

    Related: Adaptive Leadership Lessons For Transformational Growth

    The challenges of making informed decisions during market volatility

    Market volatility refers to the degree of variation in financial market prices over time. It often stems from a combination of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, investor sentiment and unexpected events like natural disasters or, as we all learned in 2020, global pandemics. Volatility is typically measured using metrics such as standard deviation or beta.

    Navigating the intricacies of making informed decisions during market volatility presents a formidable challenge. Market turbulence, shaped by various factors such as economic data, geopolitical shifts and unexpected events, can trigger emotional responses that lead to impulsive choices. Short-term focus can eclipse long-term objectives, compounded by the overwhelming flood of information. In times of volatility, the natural inclination may be to minimize risk, but this approach could lead to missed opportunities. Successful decision-making in such an environment requires adaptability, resilience and a commitment to remaining well-informed.

    As an adaptive leader, in the small/micro-cap IPO sector, my decision-making process is grounded in gathering real-time market intelligence from diverse sources. This strategy ensures that I maintain a high level of awareness and stay continually informed of the most recent developments in the dynamic, ever-changing IPO financial landscape.

    The importance of triangulating information from trusted and relevant sources ensures that my understanding is comprehensive and reliable. Before implementing any strategies or decisions, I prioritize stress-testing my theories with my advisors and team, valuing their insights and perspectives. I have found that a collaborative approach helps refine and strengthen my choices and avoid making emotion-based decisions.

    Understanding the adaptive leader

    Adaptive leadership is distinct from other leadership theories and styles because it focuses on mobilizing individuals and organizations to adapt to changing environments and address difficult issues. It encourages leaders to view challenges as opportunities for growth and learning rather than simply seeking technical solutions.

    The term “adaptive leadership” was developed by Ronald Heifetz and Marty Linsky at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Entrepreneurs are naturally adaptive leaders who seek out and thrive in environments characterized by uncertainty, rapid change and multifaceted challenges. Their ability to identify opportunities within chaos, pivot when needed and continuously learn from setbacks positions them as adaptive leaders by nature.

    Entrepreneurs possess the resilience to confront unexpected obstacles head-on, the agility to adjust strategies in response to shifting market dynamics and the willingness to embrace innovation and experimentation as integral parts of their leadership journey. This innate adaptability enables entrepreneurs to navigate turbulent waters, drive innovation and lead their ventures toward success amidst complexity and ambiguity.

    Taking time on the balcony, a concept coined by Heifetz and Linsky provides adaptive leaders with a valuable vantage point to gain perspective and assess complex situations objectively. It allows them to step back from the heat of the moment, observe patterns and make more informed decisions. This reflective practice is a strategic advantage, enabling adaptive leaders to navigate through ambiguity and volatility with greater clarity and insight. I value my time on the balcony, where I look to gain perspective when tackling pressing challenges, looking backward and forward at the same time.

    Related: Why an Adaptive Mindset Matters for Entrepreneurs

    Adaptive leadership in action

    In the throes of market volatility, adaptive leadership takes on even greater significance for entrepreneurs. It’s not just a theoretical concept; it’s a practical necessity for navigating the turbulent waters of today’s business environment. As entrepreneurs, we know that market volatility is the new normal, and adaptive leadership is the compass that helps us chart our course through these challenging times.

    Consider this scenario: Market dynamics are in constant flux, and as entrepreneurs, we’re tasked with making pivotal decisions. Adaptive leadership starts with a deep understanding of ourselves and our teams, allowing us to pivot swiftly when faced with unexpected challenges. It’s about being agile, not just in response to market turbulence but as an integral part of our leadership style. During bouts of market volatility, adaptive leaders see these disruptions as opportunities for innovation and growth. For instance, when faced with economic downturns or supply chain disruptions, adaptive leaders and entrepreneurs might rethink their business models, explore new revenue streams or harness technology to adapt to changing market conditions. This proactive, agile mindset is what sets us apart and helps us thrive even in uncertain market environments.

    Market volatility is a constant presence in business. In recent years, we have seen how market volatility can be influenced by countless factors — and while some may struggle, others flourish amid this turbulence. These individuals, the adaptive leaders, possess a unique skill set that equips them to navigate this volatility and make informed decisions that drive long-term success. The ability to adapt and make informed decisions in an ever-changing financial landscape is a sign of leadership excellence. Adaptive leaders not only survive market volatility but thrive in it, emerging stronger and more resilient with each challenge they face.

    Related: How to Demonstrate Leadership Through Market Volatility

    Peter Goldstein

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  • What the ‘mysterious shrinking’ of Wall Street’s fear gauge means for stocks, according to DataTrek

    What the ‘mysterious shrinking’ of Wall Street’s fear gauge means for stocks, according to DataTrek

    Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge has been subdued this year, in a “mysterious shrinking” pattern, that’s a bullish signal for equities, according to DataTrek Research.

    Declines for the Cboe Volatility Index
    VIX
    fear gauge come despite continued worries over inflation and elevated interest rates.

    “We’ve been saying for several months that a low VIX is a sign that U.S. stocks are in a bull market rather than being excessively delusional about the obvious challenges ahead,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, in a note emailed Monday. “We still believe the next few weeks will be choppy, however.”

    The gauge, known by its ticker VIX, has dropped more than 35% so far this year and is trading below its long-term average, according to FactSet data. Its trading levels are derived from options contracts tied to the S&P 500, the U.S. stock benchmark that has rallied 16% in 2023 through Monday.

    Last week the VIX made “a new post-pandemic crisis low,” finishing below 13 on Sept. 14 in a “rare occurrence” for the index that was a positive sign for stocks over the next three months, Colas’s note shows. That’s even if it suggests near-term “choppiness” will continue, he said.

    On Monday the VIX closed at 14, well below its long-run average of around 20. The measure ended Sept. 14 at 12.8.

    “At first glance, this makes little sense,” Colas said. “The VIX is supposed to be Wall Street’s ‘Fear Index’ and it would appear “there’s plenty to be fearful of just now.”

    ‘Cloudy picture’

    Colas cited several areas of concern, including uncertainty surrounding inflation, the recent jump in oil prices
    CL00,
    +1.08%
    and “a cloudy picture” of how long the Fed Reserve will keep interest rates elevated, for his rationale as to why investor might feel fearful. 

    The Fed has been trying to slow the rise in the cost of living in the U.S. via its restrictive monetary policy, lifting its benchmark rate aggressively over the past 18 months.

    There also has been the recent climb in Treasury rates that has weighed on stocks lately, with 10-year Treasury yields looking “set on making new decade-plus highs,” said Colas. 

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    finished Monday at 4.318%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That’s around levels seen in late 2007, FactSet data show.

    ‘Seasonal peaks’ in volatility

    The VIX had kicked off 2023 trading below its long-run average, with Colas saying in January that it was looking a lot more like 2021, a year in which stocks rallied, rather than 2022, when equities tanked as the Fed rapidly hiked rates. 

    See: Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ VIX shaping up more like 2021 than 2022, as U.S. stocks rally this year, says DataTrek

    Meanwhile, September and October are known for “seasonal peaks in equity market volatility,” according to Colas.

    U.S. stocks have slumped so far this month, after falling in August. The S&P 500, which dropped 1.8% last month, is down 1.2% in September through Monday, FactSet data show.

    The S&P 500
    SPX
    closed 0.1% higher on Monday while the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    and Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    each finished about flat, as investors digested fresh data showing a drop in confidence among homebuilders this month amid elevated mortgage rates. 

    Stock-market investors also have been monitoring the U.S. Treasury market’s inverted yield curve, or when shorter-term yields climb above long-term rates, as that historically has preceded a recession.

    There’s also some concern over the increased popularity of zero-day options in the stock market, as “you’d think their growing usage would push anticipated volatility higher, not lower,” Colas said.

    “We doubt options desks have just walked away from trading 30-day options” on S&P 500 futures, he said. “If there is money to be made in a financial asset, someone invariably trades it.”

    The Cboe Volatility Index measures 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market. 

    “What the ultra-low VIX is telling us is that none of these concerns matter enough to offset a fundamentally strong picture for U.S. corporate earnings and the belief that the Federal Reserve is largely done hiking rates,” said Colas. “Equities are dismissing the possibility of a recession over the next 1-2 years, no matter what an inverted yield curve has historically said on that point.”

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  • ‘Sell’ signals are flashing across the stock market now. But bulls still have one chance.

    ‘Sell’ signals are flashing across the stock market now. But bulls still have one chance.

    The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index SPX, has struggled to maintain the rally that began in mid-March, and now we are getting new sell signals from some of our internal indicators.

    SPX was turned back by resistance near 4200 for the third time since last August. That is an extremely strong resistance area now. Moreover, there is further resistance at 4300. On the downside for SPX, there is technically support at 3970, where the small gaps exist on the SPX chart. A close below 3950 would be extremely bearish and…

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  • Is the American Dream Really Dead? Yes, Here’s Why | Entrepreneur

    Is the American Dream Really Dead? Yes, Here’s Why | Entrepreneur

    Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.

    The United States of America was built on one main principle: one’s inherited socioeconomic status is nothing more than a circumstance of the past that is to be rectified by their true destiny. The U.S. used this simple ideology to propel itself as one of the five great power nations of the world socially, economically and politically. This principle attracted countless immigrants who fled their countries of origin to escape a predestined fate.

    It might be incomprehensible to those born into America’s idealistic regime, but on other continents such as Asia or Africa, it’s pretty common for a person’s future to be relegated to that of their ancestors. This is not an accident but a product bred out of extreme centralization and the elite pushing self-serving agendas. As a testament to this activity globally, Author Vasuki Shastry eloquently demonstrates:

    “Asia’s billionaire class is a toxic addition to this mix. There is strong evidence in developing Asia that the political and business class often collude at the expense of public interest, aggravating already rising inequality and low social mobility, such as India’s tendering of major infrastructure projects to favored business groups.”

    Centuries of strategic American propaganda have done an inconceivably good job at luring immigrants with the promise of a lucrative life built upon the foundations of hope and opportunity. I posit that it’s becoming increasingly difficult for the vast majority to achieve Thomas Jefferson’s American dream, underpinned by a person’s right to the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness.

    Related: Is the American Dream Dead?

    ‘The rent is too damn high!’

    It’s no secret that the cost of living in America has been exorbitant for quite a while now, and the pace at which this has been increasing is historic. In 2021, we saw YoY inflation jump from 1.4% in 2020 to a blistering 7% — the steepest increase in YoY inflation since 1950, when we saw a delta of 8%. A year later, 2022 YoY inflation held strong at 6.5%, signaling a slight improvement. Concurrently, house prices increased by a record 16.9% in 2021.

    To put things into perspective at a micro level, the price of eggs rose a staggering 60% in 2022. Considering the rising cost of basic necessities, a reflected increase in wages would be expected. However, little evidence points to any impending meaningful increases, with wage growth holding relatively steady between 5 and 5.5% since the beginning of 2021.

    Related: The Cheapest States To Live in 2023

    ‘Just put it on my card’

    To make ends meet, Americans are now more than ever electing to shift their expenses to credit cards and other lines of credit. American households currently hold $11.67 trillion in debt — a 25% increase from the $9.31 trillion they held before COVID-19. While inflation certainly contributes to the rapid rise of this number, inflation within itself isn’t the most concerning piece of data when analyzing the financial health of the average American.

    Younger generations, millennials in particular, are struggling to buy homes despite taking on this debt. In fact, the median age for homebuyers in America today is about 47 years of age, eight years older than the median age prior to the financial crisis. To add salt to this wound, the average American currently has just $5,300 in savings, solidifying that this picture will likely worsen before it gets any better.

    Related: Is the American Dream Attainable?

    The secret behind true wealth creation

    We’re in a transitionary period, teetering on the edge of a new digital economy. With this, we’ve witnessed quick, lucrative returns when trading stocks or cryptocurrencies, compared with returns on property ownership. This makes it more effective to chase 10 to 100x returns in capital markets instead of buying your first home, and although this might seem intuitive on the surface, this only applies to a certain demographic.

    Suppose you’re a Wall Streeter or a software engineer at a leading technology company in a major city like New York or San Francisco. Given the entry point to the housing market is grossly higher than that of an individual living in Des Moines, the capital required to have any skin in the game is a barrier to entry within itself. Sure, you could buy a property in another city, but the cost, both monetarily and operationally, of having real estate that isn’t yours in combination with your own expenses is a tall order. You might have to sacrifice a few thousand dollars on rent by not owning property, but your net income in this scenario is best spent building a diversified portfolio of non-real estate assets.

    In an alternate scenario, where someone holds a modest job — making an honest living like the vast majority of Americans — and resides in an affordable city, one’s dollars are best spent investing in the property they live in, given that their entry point is likely accessible. Buying a house is the only investment you can easily pull off with 90+% leverage, meaning your upfront investment costs are subsidized. Conversely, buying stocks requires you to front 100% at the time of investment. What’s more, the two-way volatility of the stock market is far harder to track compared to the housing market, which, for the past few decades, has generally moved upwards more consistently. You can certainly buy stocks, but due to the availability of leverage, assuming you have access to credit, real estate can more likely yield higher returns off of a small investment.

    In contemporary society, the level of difficulty in achieving the American dream has skyrocketed. This picture-perfect life is visually synonymous with happily married couples with two children, a beautiful home and a white picket fence. However, the reality of this is vastly different. The latest numbers suggest people are no longer getting married, buying homes or having children nearly as much as in previous generations. Wealth disparity is at an all-time high, and divisions continue growing. The American dream is dead.

    Why they want you to believe the dream

    While the vast majority of Americans are feeling the pain of the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, the nation’s elite are not. Elon Musk lost over $200 billion in net worth to kick off this year, yet he is still one of the wealthiest people ever to live. After a certain point, more money does little to change your quality of life.

    In capitalist regimes, the rich remain rich because a willing middle class submits to their ideals. The rich own the credit card companies that the poor borrow from. The rich own the banks that pay out fractions of a percent in yield while making enormous profits via capital markets activities. The rich are also friends and lobbyists of the lawmakers that determine the fate of the majority in this country. The American dream wasn’t designed to make you rich; it’s a narrative spun by a coterie comprised of the nation’s elite. It’s a strategic and intricate device crafted to keep you where you are. It’s a donkey and carrot model built to serve the system. While you’re too busy chasing financial freedom through hard work and dedication, the American dream is adding more weight to your saddlebags.

    Solo Ceesay

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  • Bitcoin Price Reaches $21,000, Shorts Demolished In Biggest Squeeze Since 2021

    Bitcoin Price Reaches $21,000, Shorts Demolished In Biggest Squeeze Since 2021

    The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine PRO, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

    Dylan LeClair And Sam Rule

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  • Bitcoin Volatility Hits Historic Lows Amid Market Apathy

    Bitcoin Volatility Hits Historic Lows Amid Market Apathy

    The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine PRO, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

    As we head into 2023, we want to highlight the latest state of bitcoin’s volume and volatility after a recent wave of capitulation. Last time we touched on these dynamics was in “The Bitcoin Ghost Town” in October, where we highlighted that an extremely low volume and low volatility period in bitcoin price, GBTC and the options market was a concerning sign for the next leg lower. This played out in early November.

    Dylan LeClair And Sam Rule

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  • Is The Bitcoin Price Volatile? It’s All Relative

    Is The Bitcoin Price Volatile? It’s All Relative

    This is an opinion editorial by Tim Niemeyer, the co-host of the Lincolnland Bitcoin Meetup.

    Source

    Is bitcoin volatile? How does one determine volatility? How can those with diamond hands so decisively say “no,” while those stuck in the fiat mindset so emphatically say “yes”? Which one is correct? Is it just that both sides have to agree to disagree, or can both of these seeming contradictions simultaneously be true?

    Tim Niemeyer

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  • Is Volatility In The Bitcoin Price Coming Soon?

    Is Volatility In The Bitcoin Price Coming Soon?

    The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

    Lack Of Volatility

    One of the concerning dynamics in the market right now that we want to focus on is the lack of volatility. The high period of spot volume activity and relatively lower derivatives activity has really done little to move the price and bear markets are known for testing market participants’ patience when it comes to duration. We got some volatility with the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print, but bitcoin’s historical volatility is still at record lows.

    Sam Rule

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  • Bitcoin Is A Safety Net When Fiat Currencies Collapse

    Bitcoin Is A Safety Net When Fiat Currencies Collapse

    Watch This Episode On YouTube

    Listen To The Episode Here:

    In this week’s episode of “Bitcoin Bottom Line,” hosts C.J. Wilson and Josh Olszewicz discuss current worldwide events. Wilson discusses how bitcoin has recently been a safety net. Olszewicz states, “Currencies appear to be collapsing on the government’s management. Japan and England have been a complete mess.” The pound is currently at an all-time low, along with many other currencies. Bond markets are doing historically worse than they ever have. Olszewicz says, “It does not make sense to me why the pound is up if England has been printing money and buying their own bonds.”

    Bitcoin Magazine

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  • Where Will The Bitcoin Price Bottom?

    Where Will The Bitcoin Price Bottom?

    The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

    CPI Volatility Doesn’t Disappoint

    In the last article, we highlighted a potential for CPI to surprise to the upside and bring more volatility — and that’s exactly what we got and more. We won’t cover the components that drove the surprise in detail since we already highlighted much of that, but the key takeaway is that Core CPI came in hotter than expected at 6.6% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month with shelter (rent, housing components, etc) and medical services as key drivers. This is the fastest rate of change in annual headline Core CPI since 1982. To compare the various components over the last three months, check out this chart. 

    Sam Rule

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  • Preparing For The CPI Reading: Market Braces For Volatility

    Preparing For The CPI Reading: Market Braces For Volatility

    The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

    Markets Prepare For CPI Surprise

    The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released on October 12, 2022, a day before the highly anticipated consumer price index release the following morning. In short, it’s not a good sign for those expecting a below-consensus CPI beat. Although headline PPI is coming down, the month-over-month (MoM) growth came in higher than expected at 0.4% (consensus: 0.2%) and the headline annual change came in at 8.5%. PPI has less of an impact on immediate market moves compared to the CPI as it doesn’t account for inflationary costs being passed on to the end consumer. Still, it’s an inflationary measure that gauges if businesses are facing accelerated prices and tends to move in the same direction as CPI.

    Sam Rule

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