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Tag: Visas

  • Google and Apple reportedly warn employees on visas to avoid international travel | TechCrunch

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    Law firms representing Google and Apple have warned that employees who need a visa stamp to re-enter the United States should avoid leaving the country due to longer-than-usual visa processing times, according to Business Insider.

    BI says it has viewed memos from BAL Immigration Law (which represents Google) and Fragomen (which represents Apple). 

    “Given the recent updates and the possibility of unpredictable, extended delays when returning to the U.S., we strongly recommend that employees without a valid H-1B visa stamp avoid international travel for now,” the Fragomen memo reportedly said.

    A State Department spokesperson told BI that embassies are “now prioritizing thoroughly vetting each visa case above all else.”

    Salon also reports that “hundreds” of Indian professionals who traveled home to renew their U.S. work visas in December have had their U.S. embassy appointments canceled or rescheduled due to new requirements for social media vetting.

    TechCrunch has reached out to Google and Apple for comment. Both companies, along with other large tech employers, issued similar warnings in September when the White House announced that employers would have to pay a $100,000 fee for H-1B visa applications.

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    Anthony Ha

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  • JD Vance contradicts Trump on hiring foreign workers

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    Vice President JD Vance has said the U.S. should “empower” blue-collar workers already in the country rather than replace them with foreign labor – despite President Donald Trump insisting that the nation needs to “bring in talent”.

    In his interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on Thursday, Vance offered a message that appeared to diverge from Trump’s recent remarks on foreign labor — even as he framed his position as aligned with the president’s economic vision.

    Vance argued that the U.S. should avoid relying on additional foreign workers and instead focus on using technology to “empower the blue-collar workers” already in the country.

    “Their (the Democrat’s) idea was the way that we get more prosperity is that you import more and more low-wage servants and that actually I think reduced prosperity, because it meant that a lot of our blue-collar workers were struggling,” he said.

    “But if you use technology and you empower the blue-collar workers rather than replace them with foreign labor, I think they are going to do way better, they are going to make higher wages and the whole country is going to be better off.

    “In other words, do you depend on low-wage immigrants or do you depend on American citizens bolstered by technology and innovation? That’s the Trump model.”

    But Vance’s framing followed Trump’s own comments on Fox News earlier this week. During an interview with Laura Ingraham, Trump defended the need for H-1B visas, insisting the U.S. “has to bring in talent.” When Ingraham asked whether the country lacked qualified American workers, Trump replied: “No, you don’t.”

    This is a developing story and will be updated.

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  • Afghan man freed after viral arrest and over 100 days in ICE custody

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    After a video of his arrest by masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents went viral in June, Afghan Sayed Naser was released on September 26 following 106 days of detention.

    On July 17, Naser’s attorney Brian McGoldrick filed a petition for a writ of habeas corpus requesting his immediate release. McGoldrick argued that “attempts to detain, transfer, and deport [Naser] are arbitrary and capricious and in violation of the law.”

    According to court documents shared with Reason, the government opposed the petition, but Judge Gonzalo Curiel of the Southern District of California scheduled a hearing of Naser’s habeas petition on September 25. McGoldrick told Shawn VanDiver, president of #AfghanEvac, that during the hearing, Curiel was “very inquisitive” and sounded “very friendly to our position.”

    On September 26, Curiel put out a summarized opinion ordering Naser’s immediate release. Curiel found that Naser “could not have been legally subjected to and detained” given his status at the time of his arrest, and that by revoking Naser’s parole without providing notification, the government had denied “his due process rights.”

    In an October 2 press conference, McGoldrick said that Naser was released at 9:45 p.m. last Friday, and added, “we’ve been celebrating ever since.” Naser expressed gratitude for all the Americans who supported his case, telling assembled press that his time in detention was “the hardest piece of my life.” “I thought that the time is stopped,” Naser said, adding that every day felt “like a month.” 

    When asked if his ordeal had changed his mind about wanting to be an American citizen, Naser replied, “I still believe in America. I do not feel betrayed. I feel hopeful because of how many Americans stood up for me when I was arrested.”

    McGoldrick also expressed gratitude for Naser’s supporters, particularly the volunteers who filmed Naser’s arrest, saying that without their documentation, “nobody would know what happened.”

    Following Naser’s release, Curiel has restored the terms of the parole Naser received when he legally entered the U.S. through the CBP One App in July 2024. Curiel has also ordered that “Respondents shall not cause [Naser] to be re-detained during the pendency of his removal proceedings without prior leave of this Court.”

    Now, Naser and McGoldrick must return to square one and prepare his asylum claim once more before a new judge in San Diego immigration court.

    The Taliban murdered Naser’s brother in 2023. A Special Immigrant Visa applicant who had worked with U.S. forces for two years during the Afghanistan War, Naser fled to Brazil in April 2024 and made his way to the U.S.-Mexico border. Like many parolees who utilized the CBP One App to claim asylum, Naser was told that his parole was revoked in a letter from the Department of Homeland Security in April.

    It was after presenting his asylum case in immigration court in June that Naser was arrested. The government said that Naser’s notice to appear had been “improvidently issued,” but provided no further information about their allegation. On June 26, a federal judge dismissed Naser’s asylum case, which placed him in expedited removal proceedings.

    While Naser’s release is a positive development, McGoldrick said he is now representing another Afghan, Habib, who is currently in ICE custody.

    Like Naser, Habib had entered the U.S. on parole in 2024. McGoldrick says that Habib had received work authorization and had filed an asylum claim when he was arrested on September 19. McGoldrick explained that Habib had been performing a delivery at a U.S. military base in California when base personnel noticed that he had a limited license.

    According to McGoldrick, base personnel called military police to the scene, and Habib was told that he could not depart the base until ICE arrived and took him into custody.

    Habib has a wife and two young children. With no money coming in, McGoldrick reports that Habib’s wife cannot afford rent and is facing eviction. McGoldrick is working pro bono on Habib’s case and filed a habeas petition for his release on September 29.

    After Naser’s release, VanDiver noted that while the judicial system has been successful in achieving assistance for Afghans in detention, the U.S. cannot go about rectifying “just one case at a time. We need Congress, companies, and citizens to step up.”

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    Beth Bailey

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  • White House scrambles to clear up H-1B visa confusion after panic throws corporate America into chaos overnight | Fortune

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    President Donald Trump’s $100,000 fee for H-1B visas sowed mass confusion and panic among top U.S. companies overnight, forcing the White House to clarify the requirements.

    On Saturday, press secretary Karoline Leavitt took to X to explain which visa holders the fee applies to and when.

    “This is NOT an annual fee,” she said. “It’s a one-time fee that applies only to the petition.”

    Leavitt added that existing H-1B holders currently outside the U.S. will not be charged $100,000 to come back, and that they can continue to leave and re-enter as they do right now.

    Trump’s new H-1B policy also applies only to new visas, not renewals for current holders, she explained, noting that it will take effect in the next lottery cycle.

    On Friday, Trump signed a proclamation that imposes a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas and announced a $1 million “gold card” visa that can serve as a pathway for wealthy investors to gain U.S. citizenship.

    At the time, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested the fee, which kicks in at 12:01 a.m. ET on Sunday, would be annual.

    When asked if the policy applies to existing holders, he replied that companies with H-1B employees must ask “Is the person valuable enough to have a $100,000 a year payment to the government? Or they should head home and go hire an American?” 

    That caused U.S. tech giants, which rely heavily on H-1Bs, to warn employees with those visas against foreign travel.

    MicrosoftAlphabetAmazon and others told affected employees to return to the U.S. on Saturday and cancel any plans to leave the U.S.

    “While we don’t have all the answers right now, we ask that you prioritize the recommendations above,” a message from Microsoft said, according to Bloomberg.

    Top banks JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs sent similar messages to employees on H-1B visas, according to the Financial Times.

    H-1B visas had previously been a divisive issue in Trump’s circle. Late last year, before falling out with the president, Elon Musk called for more highly skilled workers as did and fellow entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. But MAGA hardliners have demanded that U.S. companies hire more American workers.

     In a reply to a post taunting him about H-1Bs, the South African-born Musk hit back sharply.

    “The reason I’m in America along with so many critical people who built SpaceX, Tesla, and hundreds of other companies that made America strong is because of H1B,” he wrote in December. “Take a big step back and F–K YOURSELF in the face. I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend.”

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    Jason Ma

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  • The 10 best countries to retire right now—and America didn’t make the cut | Fortune

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    Baby boomers aren’t just flocking down to sunshine states like Florida to kickstart their retirement careers anymore—they’re booking a one-way ticket overseas for a better quality of life. 

    While the United States lacks a formal retirement visa, many other countries offer dedicated programs for retirees to have more affordable living and a new laid-back lifestyle, which is why it’s no surprise the U.S. didn’t make the cut in the Global Citizen Solutions’ 2025 retirement report. 

    For expats ready for cobblestone views and sipping coffee on a sunny terrace, the new report ranks 44 passive income and retirement visa programs. It also evaluated 20 key indicators grouped into six main categories: visa procedures, citizenship and mobility, economic factors, tax benefits, quality of life, and safety and social integration. Each country received a score out of 100. 

    Many of the top-ranked countries were in Europe and South America. Portugal ranked as the best, followed by Mauritius and Spain.

    “The countries dominating our rankings understand that successful retirement migration isn’t just about letting people in, it’s about helping them thrive,” Patricia Casaburi, CEO of Global Citizen Solutions, tells Fortune. 

    Portugal, Mauritius, and Spain top the list, she said, because they truly support new residents with tools to build a life. “They offer language programs, streamlined healthcare registration, and clear pathways from temporary residence to citizenship,” Casaburi explained. “Countries that treat retirees as temporary visitors rather than future citizens consistently underperform.” 

    The 10 best countries to retire abroad in 2025

    1. Portugal
    2. Mauritius
    3. Spain
    4. Uruguay
    5. Austria
    6. Italy
    7. Slovenia
    8. Malta
    9. Latvia
    10. Chile 

    Portugal 

    Coming in at number one was Portugal, where dual citizenship is allowed. The European country offers citizens a D7 Visa, a type of residency visa designed for people who have a stable passive income—making it a popular option for retirees. 

    What matters most to new international citizens is feeling secure and being able to build a real life in their new country, and Portugal excels at letting boomers build a new life without losing their roots. 

    “[Portugal] has institutional frameworks suggesting it will remain stable for the next 20-30 years of your retirement. Before making the move, research the country’s healthcare system rankings, political stability indices, and infrastructure investments. Visit during different seasons and talk to expat communities who’ve been there for 5+ years,” Casaburi added. 

    A single applicant needs about €870 per month in stable passive income. The processing time takes around 12 months. After the initial residency permit is granted and you’ve lived there for at least 5 years, you can apply to be a permanent citizen. Portugal also taxes its citizens on the income they make inside and outside of the country.

    Mauritius 

    Next at number two was the eastern African country, Mauritius. Retirees can obtain a residence permit by demonstrating a minimum monthly income of $1,500, with processing times typically around three months. 

    The permit allows the main applicant to include their spouse or legal partner, as well as dependent children, making it a family-friendly option. Retirees benefit from a territorial tax system, meaning foreign-sourced income is not taxed, and there are no wealth or inheritance taxes. After six years of residency, retirees become eligible to apply for citizenship, and dual citizenship is permitted. 

    Spain 

    Number three was Spain. The Spanish non-lucrative visa (NLV) is designed for non-EU citizens who wish to live in Spain without engaging in any work. To qualify, applicants should have a stable income of at least €2,400 per month. 

    Processing for a visa typically takes around three months. Once approved, residents are subject to Spain’s worldwide tax system and potential inheritance tax. The NLV provides a pathway to Spanish citizenship after 10 years of legal residence, or just 2 years for citizens of select Latin American and other historically connected countries. Dual citizenship is allowed, depending on the laws of the applicant’s country of origin.

    Uruguay 

    Coming in at number four was the South American country Uruguay, where residents need an income requirement of $2,000 of stable passive income a month. Processing time takes about one month. The main applicant can include spouse or legal partner, minor children and dependent adult children, there are no imposed taxes on foreign-sourced income, and no wealth and inheritance tax. Dual citizenship is allowed and the path to citizenship takes about 5 years. 

    Austria 

    Ending the top five was Austria. The country offers an independent residence permit as a pathway for people who can prove they have an income to support themselves while abroad. Processing time takes about 4 months and the main applicant could include a spouse, legal partner and minor children. For tax benefits, they have a worldwide tax system—meaning the country taxes its citizens on all their income, regardless of where it was earned—and no inheritance tax. The path to citizenship is 10 years, with dual citizenship allowed. 

    Are you looking to retire abroad? Fortune wants to hear from you. Contact Jessica.Coacci@fortune.com

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

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    Jessica Coacci

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  • The foreign worker ‘loophole’ that gives corporations a generous tax break

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    As debate heats up online around immigrant labor and the tech industry’s use of the H-1B foreign worker visa, a little-known process that allows student visa holders to transition into the workforce is also being viewed by some as a way for employers to hire cheaper labor.

    In this instance, it comes down to taxes and a legal loophole that allows companies taking on STEM workers under a program known as Optional Practical Training (OPT) to avoid paying in to federal programs like Medicare and Social Security, or at least allows those companies to pay less in payroll taxes than they would for U.S. citizens or legal residents.

    Like many other tensions around the current immigration system, which has remained largely unchanged for decades, this gray area has left the federal government open to legal challenges amid ever-growing frustrations around Big Tech and its use of foreign labor.

    In the OPT program, “there’s no wage obligation in the way that there is in H-1B where we’re very tied to an obligated wage,” Anne Walsh, a partner at the San Francisco-based law firm Corporate Immigration Partners, told Newsweek. “That said, they must be compensated and experience the working conditions that are comparable to other similarly situated U.S. employees.”

    How Popular Is STEM-OPT?

    The OPT program allows companies to take on student visa holders for a limited term, either during their studies or after their graduation, while their F-1 visa is still valid.

    In fiscal year 2024, U.S. companies employed 109,661 people on OPT. Amazon far outpaced other employers, with 10,167 OPT workers on its payroll, followed by the University of California system with 2,916. Google took on 2,454.

    The program has expanded since its creation in 1992, with a lobbying effort in the 2000s leading U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) to raise the cap on participants and extend the length of time allowed.

    With over 200 companies making use of the OPT program, immigration critics have warned that is just another way they see American workers being pushed aside for cheaper labor.

    “The OPT program is one of the most widely-used guest worker programs despite never being approved by Congress,” Jeremy Beck, co-president of immigration think-tank NumbersUSA, told Newsweek. “Business lobbyists pitched the idea of using OPT to get around the H-1B cap to the Bush Administration, which complied. The Obama and Biden Administrations expanded the program.”

    U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) told Newsweek that it regulates STEM-OPT through a 2016 final rule, which affirmed that student visa holders – who primarily use this program – were not required to pay into Social Security, Medicare or federal unemployment because of their status.

    The rule granted employers the ability to save around 7.5 percent compared to the taxes and benefits they would pay for a U.S. resident or citizen worker. Another estimate, reported by Bloomberg in 2021, put the savings closer to 15 percent. Multiplied out, that potentially equals hundreds of millions of dollars staying on corporate balance sheets that would otherwise be paid into the federal tax pool under FICA.

    Debate Over American Worker Displacement

    In 2020, NAFSA, a non-profit professional organization focused on international education, published a report that said the set up left foreign students without the same benefits and certainties as other employees. It also alleged that the government was not doing enough to address deficiencies in the system itself.

    Five years later, those concerns have only grown.

    “Employers who hire OPT workers instead of Americans don’t have to pay payroll taxes, essentially giving them a discount for not hiring American workers,” Beck said. “OPT is one of many guestworker programs that displace qualified Americans in favor of exploitable foreign workers.”

    ICE has made it clear that DHS does not have the power to change tax rules and laws – that remains the purview of Congress and the IRS. The agency affirmed in its 2016 final rule that it could only administer the program with the rules as they were, and are.

    Newsweek reached out to the IRS for comment but did not hear back ahead of publication.

    Walsh said that, despite the criticisms of the program, she believed the employers she works with on a regular basis were using STEM-OPT as something of a last resort.

    “The obligations on the employer are definitely not as easy as hiring a qualified and willing U.S. worker,” she said. “They’ve got these obligations to fill out forms, to ensure proper supervision, to submit the required reporting at 12 months, and ensure that there’s no material changes that they have to report.”

    The idea that employers would be motivated by tax breaks or tax loopholes in hiring is “specious, politically motivated, and without evidence,” said Dr. Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA.

    “The real issue is that U.S. innovation requires expertise, especially in STEM fields, and international talent plays a vital role in meeting that need for expertise,” Aw said.

    Will Anything Change?

    University students walk past the Natural Sciences and Mathematics build on the campus of Cal State University Dominguez Hills, Carson, USA. Image for illustration purposes only.

    Getty Images

    That sits in contrast with the frustration being voiced, primarily on social media, that American workers – specifically highly educated college graduates – are being overlooked for roles they are qualified for while some of the best-paying jobs in the country go to workers on guest visas.

    In March, Arizona Republican Representative Paul Gosar reintroduced legislation aimed at tackling the OPT pipeline. He said his Fairness for High-Skilled Americans Act, first filed in President Donald Trump‘s first term, would terminate the program.

    “The OPT program completely undercuts American workers, particularly higher-skilled workers and recent college graduates, by giving employers a tax incentive to hire inexpensive, foreign labor under the guise of student training,” Gosar said in a March 25 press release, in which he called employers using the program “greedy”.

    Getting Congress to pass such reform like this appears unlikely, with many other immigration bills dying in committee despite calls from both Republicans and Democrats for change.

    Beck told Newsweek that NumbersUSA was making Gosar’s bill a priority, to ensure the end of the OPT program.

    For Walsh’s clients, they want something different: a clearer pathway for legal status for the foreign students they take on.

    “The frustration around having little to no option on the completion of STEM-OPT continues to get louder and louder,” Walsh said. “They want this talent, they don’t want them because they’re foreign workers, they want them because they’re positively contributing to growing their U.S. businesses and enabling the companies to hire more U.S. workers through their talents. So that continues to be a frustration that just gets louder and louder.”

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  • Migration is derailing leaders from Biden to Macron. Who’s next?

    Migration is derailing leaders from Biden to Macron. Who’s next?

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    BRUSSELS — Western leaders are grappling with how to handle two era-defining wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine. But there’s another issue, one far closer to home, that’s derailing governments in Europe and America: migration. 

    In recent days, U.S. President Joe Biden, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak all hit trouble amid intense domestic pressure to tackle immigration; all three emerged weakened as a result. The stakes are high as American, British and European voters head to the polls in 2024. 

    “There is a temptation to hunt for quick fixes,” said Rashmin Sagoo, director of the international law program at the Chatham House think tank in London. “But irregular migration is a hugely challenging issue. And solving it requires long-term policy thinking beyond national boundaries.”

    With election campaigning already under way, long-term plans may be hard to find. Far-right, anti-migrant populists promising sharp answers are gaining support in many Western democracies, leaving mainstream parties to count the costs. Less than a month ago in the Netherlands, pragmatic Dutch centrists lost to an anti-migrant radical. 

    Who will be next? 

    Rishi Sunak, United Kingdom 

    In Britain, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure from members of his own ruling Conservative party who fear voters will punish them over the government’s failure to get a grip on migration. 

    U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a press conference in Dover on June 5, 2023 in Dover, England | Pool photo by Yui Mok/WPA via Getty Images

    Seven years ago, voters backed Brexit because euroskeptic campaigners promised to “Take Back Control” of the U.K.’s borders. Instead, the picture is now more chaotic than ever. The U.K. chalked up record net migration figures last month, and the government has failed so far to stop small boats packed with asylum seekers crossing the English Channel.

    Sunak is now in the firing line. He made a pledge to “Stop the Boats” central to his premiership. In the process, he ignited a war in his already divided party about just how far Britain should go. 

    Under Sunak’s deal with Rwanda, the central African nation agreed to resettle asylum seekers who arrived on British shores in small boats. The PM says the policy will deter migrants from making sea crossings to the U.K. in the first place. But the plan was struck down by the Supreme Court in London, and Sunak’s Tories now can’t agree on what to do next. 

    Having survived what threatened to be a catastrophic rebellion in parliament on Tuesday, the British premier still faces a brutal battle in the legislature over his proposed Rwanda law early next year.

    Time is running out for Sunak to find a fix. An election is expected next fall.

    Emmanuel Macron, France

    The French president suffered an unexpected body blow when the lower house of parliament rejected his flagship immigration bill this week. 

    French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on June 21, 2023 | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

    After losing parliamentary elections last year, getting legislation through the National Assembly has been a fraught process for Macron. He has been forced to rely on votes from the right-wing Les Républicains party on more than one occasion. 

    Macron’s draft law on immigration was meant to please both the conservatives and the center-left with a carefully designed mix of repressive and liberal measures. But in a dramatic upset, the National Assembly, which is split between centrists, the left and the far right, voted against the legislation on day one of debates.

    Now Macron is searching for a compromise. The government has tasked a joint committee of senators and MPs with seeking a deal. But it’s likely their text will be harsher than the initial draft, given that the Senate is dominated by the centre right — and this will be a problem for Macron’s left-leaning lawmakers. 

    If a compromise is not found, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally will be able to capitalize on Macron’s failure ahead of the European Parliament elections next June. 

    But even if the French president does manage to muddle through, the episode is likely to mark the end of his “neither left nor right” political offer. It also raises serious doubts about his ability to legislate on controversial topics.

    Joe Biden, United States   

    The immigration crisis is one of the most vexing and longest-running domestic challenges for President Joe Biden. He came into office vowing to reverse the policies of his predecessor, Donald Trump, and build a “fair and humane” system, only to see Congress sit on his plan for comprehensive immigration reform. 

    U.S. President Joe Biden pauses as he gives a speech in Des Moines, Iowa on July 15, 2019 | Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    The White House has seen a deluge of migrants at the nation’s southern border, strained by a decades-old system unable to handle modern migration patterns. 

    Ahead of next year’s presidential election, Republicans have seized on the issue. GOP state leaders have filed lawsuits against the administration and sent busloads of migrants to Democrat-led cities, while in Washington, Republicans in Congress have tied foreign aid to sweeping changes to border policy, putting the White House in a tight spot as Biden officials now consider a slate of policies they once forcefully rejected. 

    The political pressure has spilled into the other aisle. States and cities, particularly ones led by Democrats, are pressuring Washington leaders to do more in terms of providing additional federal aid and revamping southern border policies to limit the flow of asylum seekers into the United States.

    New York City has had more than 150,000 new arrivals over the past year and a half — forcing cuts to new police recruits, cutting library hours and limiting sanitation duties. Similar problems are playing out in cities like Chicago, which had migrants sleeping in buses or police stations.

    The pressure from Democrats is straining their relationship with the White House. New York City Mayor Eric Adams runs the largest city in the nation, but hasn’t spoken with Biden in nearly a year. “We just need help, and we’re not getting that help,” Adams told reporters Tuesday. 

    Olaf Scholz, Germany

    Migration has been at the top of the political agenda in Germany for months, with asylum applications rising to their highest levels since the 2015 refugee crisis triggered by Syria’s civil war.

    The latest influx has posed a daunting challenge to national and local governments alike, which have struggled to find housing and other services for the migrants, not to mention the necessary funds. 

    The inability to limit the number of refugees has put German Chancellor Olaf Scholz under immense pressure | Michele Tantussi/Getty Images

    The inability — in a country that ranks among the most coveted destinations for asylum seekers — to limit the number of refugees has put German Chancellor Olaf Scholz under immense pressure. In the hope of stemming the flow, Germany recently reinstated border checks with Poland, the Czech Republic and Switzerland, hoping to turn back the refugees before they hit German soil.

    Even with border controls, refugee numbers remain high, which has been a boon to the far right. Germany’s anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party has reached record support in national polls. 

    Since overtaking Scholz’s Social Democrats in June, the AfD has widened its lead further, recording 22 percent in recent polls, second only to the center-right Christian Democrats. 

    The AfD is expected to sweep three state elections next September in eastern Germany, where support for the party and its reactionary anti-foreigner policies is particularly strong.

    The center-right, meanwhile, is hardening its position on migration and turning its back on the open-border policies championed by former Chancellor Angela Merkel. Among the new priorities is a plan to follow the U.K.’s Rwanda model for processing refugees in third countries.

    Karl Nehammer, Austria 

    Like Scholz, the Austrian leader’s approval ratings have taken a nosedive thanks to concerns over migration. Austria has taken steps to tighten controls at its southern and eastern borders. 

    Though the tactic has led to a drop in arrivals by asylum seekers, it also means Austria has effectively suspended the EU’s borderless travel regime, which has been a boon to the regional economy for decades. 

    Austria has effectively suspended the EU’s borderless travel regime, which has been a boon to the regional economy for decades | Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images

    The far-right Freedom Party has had a commanding lead for more than a year, topping the ruling center-right in polls by 10 points. That puts the party in a position to win national elections scheduled for next fall, which would mark an unprecedented rightward tilt in a country whose politics have been dominated by the center since World War II. 

    Giorgia Meloni, Italy 

    Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made her name in opposition, campaigning on a radical far-right agenda. Since winning power in last year’s election, she has shifted to more moderate positions on Ukraine and Europe.

    Meloni now needs to appease her base on migration, a topic that has dominated Italian debate for years. Instead, however, she has been forced to grant visas to hundreds of thousands of legal migrants to cover labor shortages. Complicating matters, boat landings in Italy are up by about 50 per cent year-on-year despite some headline-grabbling policies and deals to stop arrivals. 

    While Meloni has ordered the construction of detention centers where migrants will be held pending repatriation, in reality local conditions in African countries and a lack of repatriation agreements present serious impediments.    

    Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni at a press conference on March 9, 2023 | Tiziana Fabi/AFP via Getty Images

    Although she won the support of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for her cause, a potential EU naval mission to block departures from Africa would risk breaching international law. 

    Meloni has tried other options, including a deal with Tunisia to help stop migrant smuggling, but the plan fell apart before it began. A deal with Albania to offshore some migrant detention centers also ran into trouble. 

    Now Meloni is in a bind. The migration issue has brought her into conflict with France and Germany as she attempts to create a reputation as a moderate conservative. 

    If she fails to get to grips with the issue, she is likely to lose political ground. Her coalition partner Matteo Salvini is known as a hardliner on migration, and while they’re officially allies for now, they will be rivals again later. 

    Geert Wilders, the Netherlands

    The government of long-serving Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was toppled over migration talks in July, after which he announced his exit from politics. In subsequent elections, in which different parties vied to fill Rutte’s void, far-right firebrand Geert Wilders secured a shock win. On election night he promised to curb the “asylum tsunami.” 

    Wilders is now seeking to prop up a center-right coalition with three other parties that have urged getting migration under control. One of them is Rutte’s old group, now led by Dilan Yeşilgöz. 

    Geert Wilders attends a meeting in the Dutch parliament with party leaders to discuss the formation of a coalition government, on November 24, 2023 | Carl Court/Getty Images

    A former refugee, Yeşilgöz turned migration into one of the main topics of her campaign. She was criticized after the elections for paving the way for Wilders to win — not only by focusing on migration, but also by opening the door to potentially governing with Wilders. 

    Now, though, coalition talks are stuck, and it could take months to form a new cabinet. If Wilders, who clearly has a mandate from voters, can stitch a coalition together, the political trajectory of the Netherlands — generally known as a pragmatic nation — will shift significantly to the right. A crackdown on migration is as certain as anything can be. 

    Leo Varadkar, Ireland

    Even in Ireland, an economically open country long used to exporting its own people worldwide, an immigration-friendly and pro-business government has been forced by rising anti-foreigner sentiment to introduce new migration deterrence measures that would have been unthinkable even a year ago.

    Ireland’s hardening policies reflect both a chronic housing crisis and the growing reluctance of some property owners to keep providing state-funded emergency shelter in the wake of November riots in Dublin triggered by a North African immigrant’s stabbing of young schoolchildren.

    A nation already housing more than 100,000 newcomers, mostly from Ukraine, Ireland has stopped guaranteeing housing to new asylum seekers if they are single men, chiefly from Nigeria, Algeria, Afghanistan, Georgia and Somalia, according to the most recent Department of Integration statistics

    Ireland has stopped guaranteeing housing to new asylum seekers if they are single men, chiefly from Nigeria, Algeria, Afghanistan, Georgia and Somalia | Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images

    Even newly arrived families face an increasing risk of being kept in military-style tents despite winter temperatures.

    Ukrainians, who since Russia’s 2022 invasion of their country have received much stronger welfare support than other refugees, will see that welcome mat partially retracted in draft legislation approved this week by the three-party coalition government of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. 

    Once enacted by parliament next month, the law will limit new Ukrainian arrivals to three months of state-paid housing, while welfare payments – currently among the most generous in Europe for people fleeing Russia’s war – will be slashed for all those in state-paid housing.

    Justin Trudeau, Canada  

    A pessimistic public mood dragged down by cost-of-living woes has made immigration a multidimensional challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

    A housing crunch felt across the country has cooled support for immigration, with people looking for scapegoats for affordability pains. The situation has fueled antipathy for Trudeau and his re-election campaign.

    Trudeau has treated immigration as a multipurpose solution for Canada’s aging population and slowing economy. And while today’s record-high population growth reflects well on Canada’s reputation as a desirable place to relocate, political challenges linked to migration have arisen in unpredictable ways for Trudeau’s Liberals.

    Political challenges linked to migration have arisen in unpredictable ways for Trudeau’s Liberals | Andrej Ivanov/AFP

    Since Trudeau came to power eight years ago, at least 1.3 million people have immigrated to Canada, mostly from India, the Philippines, China and Syria. Handling diaspora politics — and foreign interference — has become more consequential, as seen by Trudeau’s clash with India and Canada’s recent break with Israel.

    Canada will double its 40 million population in 25 years if the current growth rate holds, enlarging the political challenges of leading what Trudeau calls the world’s “first postnational state”.

    Pedro Sánchez, Spain

    Spain’s autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, in Northern Africa, are favored by migrants seeking to enter Europe from the south: Once they make it across the land border, the Continent can easily be accessed by ferry. 

    Transit via the land border that separates the European territory from Morocco is normally kept in check with security measures like high, razor-topped fences, with border control officers from both countries working together to keep undocumented migrants out. 

    Spain’s autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, in Northern Africa, are favored by migrants seeking to enter Europe | Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP

    But in recent years authorities in Morocco have expressed displeasure with their Spanish counterparts by standing down their officers and allowing hundreds of migrants to pass, overwhelming border stations and forcing Spanish officers to repel the migrants, with scores dying in the process

    The headaches caused by these incidents are believed to be a major factor in Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to change the Spanish government’s position on the disputed Western Sahara territory and express support for Rabat’s plan to formalize its nearly 50-year occupation of the area. 

    The pivot angered Sánchez’s leftist allies and worsened Spain’s relationship with Algeria, a long-standing champion of Western Saharan independence. But the measures have stopped the flow of migrants — for now.

    Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece

    Greece has been at the forefront of Europe’s migration crisis since 2015, when hundreds of thousands of people entered Europe via the Aegean islands. Migration and border security have been key issues in the country’s political debate.

    Human rights organizations, as well as the European Parliament and the European Commission, have accused the Greek conservative government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis of illegal “pushbacks” of migrants who have made it to Greek territory — and of deporting migrants without due process. Greece’s government denies those accusations, arguing that independent investigations haven’t found any proof.

    Mitsotakis insists that Greece follows a “tough but fair” policy, but the numerous in-depth investigations belie the moderate profile the conservative leader wants to maintain.

    Human rights organizations, as well as the European Parliament and the European Commission, have accused the Greek government of illegal “pushbacks” of migrants | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

    In June, a migrant boat sank in what some called “the worst tragedy ever” in the Mediterranean Sea. Hundreds lost their lives, refocusing Europe’s attention on the issue. Official investigations have yet to discover whether failures by Greek authorities contributed to the shipwreck, according to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

    In the meantime, Greece is in desperate need of thousands of workers to buttress the country’s understaffed agriculture, tourism and construction sectors. Despite pledges by the migration and agriculture ministers of imminent legislation bringing migrants to tackle the labor shortage, the government was forced to retreat amid pressure from within its own ranks.

    Nikos Christodoulides, Cyprus

    Cyprus is braced for an increase in migrant arrivals on its shores amid renewed conflict in the Middle East. Earlier in December, Greece sent humanitarian aid to the island to deal with an anticipated increase in flows.

    Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has called for extra EU funding for migration management, and is contending with a surge in violence against migrants in Cyprus. Analysts blame xenophobia, which has become mainstream in Cypriot politics and media, as well as state mismanagement of migration flows. Last year the country recorded the EU’s highest proportion of first-time asylum seekers relative to its population.

    Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has called for extra EU funding for migration management | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

    Legal and staffing challenges have delayed efforts to create a deputy ministry for migration, deemed an important step in helping Cyprus to deal with the surge in arrivals. 

    The island’s geography — it’s close to both Lebanon and Turkey — makes it a prime target for migrants wanting to enter EU territory from the Middle East. Its complex history as a divided country also makes it harder to regulate migrant inflows.

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  • How Eva met Francesco: The golden couple at the heart of Europe’s Qatargate scandal

    How Eva met Francesco: The golden couple at the heart of Europe’s Qatargate scandal

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    BRUSSELS — Eva Kaili and Francesco Giorgi had left nothing to chance.

    The duo that would later become the most famous — many would say infamous — couple in the European Union capital had been gearing up for this moment for years.

    As Qatar prepared to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, they were among the Gulf state’s fiercest advocates in Brussels, defending its record on human rights and fending off criticism of its treatment of migrant workers.

    And now, less than a week before the high-profile soccer tournament was to kick off, it was all coming to a head. At a crucial hearing in the European Parliament, Qatar’s Labor Minister Ali bin Samikh Al Marri — aka “the Doctor” — would come in person to plead his case before the chamber’s human rights committee.

    In the preceding days, Kaili, a Greek lawmaker who was then a vice president of the European Parliament, had ramped up her efforts. According to public records, interviews and a cache of investigative files seen by POLITICO, she had flown back and forth to Doha and spent hours pleading and cajoling fellow lawmakers to give Qatar a clean bill of health on human rights.

    At several points, she turned to her partner, Giorgi, for advice. “Who else should I talk to?” she texted him on November 14, according to transcriptions of her WhatsApp messages included in the police investigation files.

    While Kaili worked the phones, Giorgi, an Italian parliamentary assistant, had been putting the finishing touches to the Qatari minister’s speech. In police surveillance photographs taken three days before the hearing, he can be seen poring over the text with his longtime boss, Pier Antonio Panzeri — a former EU lawmaker who Belgian prosecutors would later describe as the mastermind of a sweeping cash-for-influence operation known as “Qatargate.”

    Per their usual working method, the Italian-speaking Panzeri wrote the speech in his native language and then passed it on to Giorgi for translation. With one day to go, Giorgi and Kaili huddled with Al Marri in his suite at the 5-star Steigenberger Wiltcher’s hotel, according to hotel video recordings obtained by the police.

    Finally, it was the big day. As the minister took to the stage on November 14, 2022, Kaili nervously texted her partner again to ask if she should show up in person.

    “Don’t come,” Giorgi replied via WhatsApp. “I’m afraid you will be exposed. To enter with the baby, everyone will notice u.”

    She replied: “I don’t want to be exposed.”

    So she stayed with the couple’s child, while the rest of the key suspects in what would become the Qatargate scandal crowded into the auditorium where Al Marri — the man police would later describe as the leader in his country’s efforts to corrupt the European Parliament — was taking to the stage.

    At a hearing, Ali bin Samikh Al Marri laid out the case for Qatar’s labor reforms and why his country deserved the world’s respect despite reports alleging abuse of migrant laborers | Pierre Albouy/EFE via EPA

    If everything went well and Al Marri came out satisfied with their efforts over many months of lobbying, the Italian former lawmaker stood to make good on a long-standing business relationship he and Giorgi would later tell police was worth more than €4 million.

    And if it failed? Nobody wanted to know.

    As Al Marri spoke, laying out the case for Qatar’s labor reforms and why his country deserved the world’s respect despite reports alleging abuse of migrant laborers, Kaili and her partner of five years WhatsApped back and forth, as one might do while watching a major sporting event from two different locations.

    “So Arabic and speaks without reading,” Giorgi texted.

    A few minutes later, Kaili commented: “He’s losing it a bit.”

    As other lawmakers took to the floor following Al Marri’s speech, she bristled at criticism of Qatar. 

    “Who is this fat,” she texted her partner, referring to one lawmaker, adding an adjective which to her was an insult: “Communist.”

    As Al Marri wrapped up, the Greek lawmaker asked: “Why he didn’t follow the speech.”

    Finally, it was over. 

    Giorgi texted Kaili: “Ela, we did everything we could.”

    For the watch party, a major milestone had been crossed. A senior Qatari representative had been given a chance to address criticism in what could have been a fiercely critical environment. 

    So far, so good. Except what they didn’t know was that Giorgi and Panzeri had been under surveillance by Belgian secret services for months, suspected of taking part in a sweeping cash-for-influence scheme under which Qatar paid to obtain specific legislative outcomes. Their communications, including with Kaili and other suspects, would be scooped up as part of the wiretaps and the subsequent investigations. 

    Eva Kaili maintains her defense of Qatar was part of her job as a representative of the European Union | Julien Warnand/EFE via EPA

    Kaili denies any wrongdoing in a scheme in which police say Panzeri and others accepted money from Qatar, Morocco and Mauritania in exchange for pushing their interests in the European Parliament. Kaili maintains her defense of Qatar was part of her job as a representative of the European Union and that the investigation into her actions breached the parliamentary immunity enjoyed by sitting MEPs. 

    There is no other evidence in the hundreds of pages of wiretapping by the secret services that indicates Kaili directly received money from Qatar or other countries. Giorgi has provided details of the operation to police, but his lawyer has argued his statements were extracted under duress. 

    And yet, as the pro-Qatar operation turned to its next challenges, Belgian investigators who had taken over the probe from the secret service were closing in.

    On the morning of December 9, the trap slammed shut. Kaili, Giorgi, Panzeri and a couple of other suspects were arrested and thrown into jail on charges of corruption, money laundering and participating in a “criminal conspiracy.” Two other members of the European Parliament, Marc Tarabella and Andrea Cozzolino, would also be arrested and charged.

    Police published photographs of bags stuffed full of hundreds of thousands of euros which they had recovered in Panzeri’s flat, at Kaili and Giorgi’s home and in a suitcase wheeled by Kaili’s father — instantly turning their probe into a page one news story for outlets around the Continent.

    * * *

    The shock arrests of one of the highest-ranking members of the European Parliament, her boyfriend and their alleged accomplices smashed open a window onto a murky world of lobbying for foreign governments in the heart of EU democracy.

    The Brussels bubble, as the EU’s policymaking apparatus is known, likes to think of itself as a global paragon of democracy, transparency and respect for human rights. There’s another side of the EU capital, however — an ecosystem of hidden connections and low-grade corruption, of back-scratching politicians and the filter feeders that gravitate toward centers of political power and public largesse. 

    While the Qatargate case has yet to go to court and several of the key players, including Kaili, insist they are innocent of the charges, the scandal has already led to reforms. The European Parliament has introduced changes bolstering transparency, and the creation of an ethics body establishing common standards for EU civil servants is being negotiated.

    The story of Qatargate is also still being written. And nobody better captures the human element of this complex affair — and the cozy, transactional world in which it took place — than Kaili and Giorgi. 

    Start with Kaili: A political celebrity in her native Greece, where she’d gained fame as a TV presenter, at the time of her arrest she was one of Brussels’ most prominent politicians, widely believed to be bound for higher office either within the EU system or back home. She’d recently had her first child with Giorgi, an ambitious parliamentary assistant nine years her junior whose wavy blond hair and dimpled smile were well known in the European Parliament.

    Together, they formed a formidable power couple on the Brussels circuit — as well as a shining example of what Europeans hailing from their respective Mediterranean homelands can achieve in the EU system if they play their cards right.

    And yet, in an instant, it was all over. Both of them were in jail, their reputations in tatters, their infant child outside and in the care of family members. In the space of a single morning, the EU capital’s golden couple had become the most notorious duo in town.

    Pier Antonio Panzeri hired Francesco Giorgi as an intern in 2009 | European Union

    To understand what propelled this sudden plunge, it helps to dial back the clock to the earliest days of their relationship, five years before anyone heard of the so-called Qatargate scandal.

    It was a Monday in early 2017. Giorgi was at work doing a familiar task — interpreting for his language-challenged boss, Pier Antonio Panzeri, at a conference in Parliament.

    The two men went back a long way. Panzeri had been Giorgi’s boss for nearly a decade already, having hired him first as an intern in 2009 and then as a full-blown accredited assistant. The elder Italian was a well-known politician in Parliament — a shrewd operator on the left wing of Italy’s Partito Democratico, a trade union veteran from Milan who turned to international affairs late in his 15-year parliamentary career.

    But he was a man of his generation — only really comfortable speaking in Italian and, according to Giorgi, unable to switch on a computer.

    For all of those things, there was Giorgi. Then aged around 30, he was in a good place professionally and socially. Like thousands of Italians who flock to Brussels every year, he looked to the EU system as a land of opportunity. And the system had served him well. Paid handsomely, he had a front-row seat on his boss’s dealings, which included travel to places like Rabat, Morocco and Doha, Qatar, as well as more mundane tasks.

    But nearly 10 years in, Giorgi was ready for change. And little did he know, the embodiment of that change was about to walk in the door.

    While Kaili and Giorgi had seen each other in the halls of the European Parliament a few times since her election in 2014, according to her interviews with Belgian police, that Monday meeting in Brussels would stick out for them as their first proper encounter.

    The mutual interest must have been powerful because it’s hard to overstate the disparity, in terms of age and political and financial power, that separated Giorgi from Kaili as she walked in, heading a NATO delegation.

    To put it bluntly, Giorgi was a cog in the machine with no political weight. By contrast, Kaili was already a well-established politician in Brussels and very well plugged-in with Greece’s political and business elite. She had barreled her way up through the ranks of the Greek socialist party, PASOK, while still in her twenties, before making the jump to the European Parliament in 2014. In her office, Kaili employed no fewer than three Giorgis.

    And yet the young Italian, who’d grown up sailing in the Mediterranean and skiing in the French Alps, decided to try his luck. According to Kaili’s testimony to police, after this initial encounter, the two of them dined “two or three times.” Giorgi spent the better part of a year trying to woo the Greek lawmaker, but it was tough going as she claimed to be far too busy with her work to carve out time for a serious relationship.

    It was only after about a year, she said, that things became “serious.” Marking the transition from casual dating to partnership, they made a shared commitment: co-investing in an apartment located just behind their shared place of work, the European Parliament. It was Christmas Eve, 2019, according to Giorgi’s statements to police. 

    After Kaili returned to Greece in 2019 to campaign for reelection, Giorgi joined her a few months later. In February 2021, they were joined by a baby girl.

    Eva Kaili returned to Greece in 2019 to campaign for reelection | Menelaos Myrillas/SOOC/AFP via Getty Images

    But that’s where their story departs from the norm. Most wage-earning couples don’t live surrounded by stacks of cash. Most EU bubble couples don’t possess a “go bag” brimming with bank notes, or end up as suspects in sprawling corruption probes.

    Part of the explanation can be found in their link to Panzeri, the Svengali-like third wheel in their relationship, whom Giorgi described initially as a “father figure” and whom Kaili later called a manipulator taking advantage of her boyfriend’s “idealistic” personality.

    Indeed, in his interviews with Belgian investigators, Giorgi traces back the “original sin” of his involvement in Qatargate to a deal he agreed to with Panzeri shortly after becoming his employee in 2009. Under that arrangement, Giorgi allegedly agreed to pay Panzeri back €1,500 per month of his wages in exchange for the privilege of working for him, a relatively common scheme in the Parliament. (As a point of comparison, when the scandal broke, Giorgi was earning some €6,600 per month as an assistant to a different MEP).

    The deal was to prove an introduction to a transactional world in which Panzeri — as a lawmaker and later, as the head of Fight Impunity, a nongovernmental organization he launched after leaving Parliament — had no trouble accepting large sums of cash from foreign governments in exchange for services rendered.

    From 2018, Giorgi and Panzeri dove headlong into a partnership allegedly based on lobbying for Qatar in exchange for big cash payments. According to Giorgi’s statements to police, they agreed on a long-term lobbying agreement worth an estimated €4.5 million and to be split 60/40, with the larger share going to Panzeri.

    Once arrested, Giorgi and Panzeri would butt heads about the precise role of each in the lobbying arrangement. But one of the younger Italian’s key tasks was to pick up cash payments at various places around Brussels, often from total strangers. Once he picked up €300,000 in cash near the Royal Palace from a person driving a black Audi with Dutch license plates. Another time, the drop-off happened in a parking lot near the canal. 

    In total, there were around ten such drop-offs, two or three per year, with the smallest amount around €50,000.

    The alleged quid pro quo was that Giorgi and Panzeri would deliver specific parliamentary and public relations outcomes to their clients, which in addition to Qatar included Morocco and Mauritania. The ever-meticulous Giorgi kept a spreadsheet on his computer on which he documented hundreds of influence activities that the network allegedly carried out between 2018 and 2022.

    It records more than 300 pieces of work, using a network of aides inside parliament whom they called their “soldiers,” according to the files.

    Even as they pressed their clients’ interests, they were also trying to exploit their lack of familiarity with the workings of the bubble, reporting certain actions that, according to Giorgi, they actually had no influence over.

    The scheme, Giorgi later told police, “relied on the ignorance of how parliament works” — on the part of the duo’s clients.

    Panzeri, through his lawyer, declined to comment for this article.

    * * *

    As Giorgi dug deeper into his partnership with Panzeri, his romance with Kaili was expanding into a business partnership.

    While each already had other properties — including Kaili’s two apartments in Athens (which she said were worth a combined €400,000) and one in Brussels (estimated by Kaili at €160,000) and one belonging to Giorgi purchased for €145,000 in Brussels — they were soon eyeing other purchases.

    Eva Kaili and Francesco Giorgi purchased a flat near the European Parliament for €375,000 in 2019 | Leon Neal/Getty Images

    After the Christmas Eve purchase of their flat near the Parliament for €375,000 in 2019, they purchased a plot of land on the Greek island of Paros for €300,000 in 2021 which they planned to develop into four holiday villas and at least one swimming pool, according to files recovered from Giorgi’s computer in a folder called “Business”. Then, in 2022, came the purchase of their second apartment, a penthouse right next to the Parliament, worth €650,000, according to Giorgi’s statements to police. 

    All told, the couple’s joint real estate purchases amounted to more than €1.3 million over a period of two years.

    In between these purchases, there were other expenses: sailing holidays, a Land Rover bought for €56,000 and a fully refurbished kitchen. On several occasions, the couple sought to minimize their outlay by exploiting their insiders’ knowledge of the system.

    According to documents seized at Giorgi’s home, a Qatari diplomat helped him get a discount on the Land Rover by taking advantage of special conditions for diplomatic staff, reducing the sticker price by about €10,000.

    By any normal standards, Kaili and Giorgi were already wealthy based on their income.

    In addition to taking home €6,600 per month as a parliamentary assistant, Giorgi received €1,000 in social benefits for their daughter, €1,800 per month from the rental to the Mauritanian ambassador and — since the envoy never occupied the flat — €1,200 in cash from two women to whom he sublet the flat for a few months. 

    As for Kaili, she earned about €10,000 before taxes plus about €900 in monthly rent from a flat she owned in Brussels.

    All told, the couple was pulling in well over €20,000 per month, an eye-watering amount in a country where the median monthly wage is €3,507 before taxes.

    Yet even these substantial monthly earnings seem not to have covered the mounting costs related to their real estate investments or make the couple feel fully secure. Despite the fact her partner was pulling in more than three times the Belgian median wage, Kaili would tell police during the first interview after her arrest: “I know that Francesco doesn’t have a lot of money because he isn’t able to partake in all of our expenses.”

    What motivated this drive for accumulation? According to a person who knew Kaili professionally and asked not to be named due to fear of retaliation, the answer lies partly in her background growing up without much money in Thessaloniki, Greece. “It feels like she grew up with a lot of deprivations,” the person said. “She wanted to feel that even if she quits politics, she will have a comfortable life.”

    According to a person who knew Kaili professionally, the answer to her drive for accumulation lies partly in her background growing up without much money in Thessaloniki | Sakis Mitrolidis/AFP via Getty Images

    As a result, Kaili tended to be very focused on financial opportunities. “She loved people with power and money. She was always, ‘You know this event is going to have businessmen,’” the person added. “And she always liked to have houses and property stuff, but she was never into luxury stuff.”

    As for Giorgi, the son of a school director and import-export entrepreneur, he grew up in more comfortable circumstances in a town near Milan.

    But as the junior partner in his relationship with Kaili, he may have struggled to keep up financially with a partner who earned more than he did and kept company with wealthy entrepreneurs and crypto bros. 

    “I have never loved luxury. I don’t know why I lost my way,” he told police during his first interview shortly after his arrest. 

    * * *

    In interviews with police, Giorgi admitted to being part of a scheme, with Panzeri, to take hundreds of thousands of euros in cash from foreign governments — admissions his lawyer now says he made under pressure from police who he says threatened to take away his daughter.

    But Kaili always maintained that she had nothing to do with the setup. Not only does she claim ignorance about the ultimate source of much of the money found in her apartment, and on her father; she also told police that she had nothing to do with Panzeri and Giorgi’s deals with foreign governments — an argument that her partner has always backed up, telling police early on that she had nothing to do with the scheme.

    Panzeri, however, says the opposite. He alleges that in the spring of 2019, Kaili was part of a pact struck with Qatar to fund several MEPs’ election campaigns to the tune of €250,000 each. Giorgi and Panzeri both attest that a deal like this took place — but disagree on whether Kaili was involved. 

    In any case, having forged a reputation as a tech policymaker, Kaili’s work as a lawmaker veered suddenly toward the Middle East and the world of human rights, particularly in the Gulf, from 2017 onwards the year she met Giorgi. She traveled to Qatar for the first time later that year, at the invitation of another lawmaker, and made trips — some with Giorgi, some without — in 2020 and 2022.

    In early 2022, just after she became a Parliament vice president, she asked the chamber’s president, Roberta Metsola, to give her files related to the Middle East and human rights. “I hope I didn’t make it difficult for you,” Kaili WhatsApped Metsola. “You gave me everything I love the most!” She was later designated as the vice president who would replace Metsola in her absence on issues related to the Middle East.

    In the days and weeks leading up to the kickoff of the World Cup, Kaili and Giorgi’s work increasingly overlapped on two main files: opposition to a resolution critical of Qatar and a deal Doha was seeking with the EU that would allow its citizens to travel to the bloc without a visa.

    On November 12, two days before Qatar’s labor minister would appear before the European Parliament, she reached out to Metsola, offering her tickets to the tournament in Doha.

    “My dear President!” she wrote to Metsola. “Hope you are well. I have to pass you an invitation for the World Cup, you [sic] or your husband and boys might be interested,” she wrote on WhatsApp. 

    Eva Kaili reached out to European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, offering her tickets to the World Cup in Doha | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    It’s not clear what, if anything, Kaili asked from Metsola in exchange for the tickets. Throughout her dealings with lawmakers over Qatar, the Greek lawmaker would occasionally delete the messages she had sent. This includes her side of the rest of the conversation with Metsola — except for one text: “The rest I disagree too but I believe they will digest if we get the visa,” she wrote.

    (A spokesperson for the Parliament president said Metsola never accepted any tickets to the World Cup and did not read Kaili’s messages before they were deleted.)

    With the World Cup having started, the next big challenge awaiting Kaili, Giorgi and Panzeri was a plenary session in Strasbourg where rival politicians aimed to criticize Qatar’s human rights record weeks before the World Cup by putting a resolution on the agenda. Once again, they ramped up their lobbying.

    So noticeable was the pro-Qatari line being pushed by Kaili and others affiliated with Panzeri that it started raising eyebrows among their colleagues.

    “There were some very strange opinions being voiced on how we should not criticize Qatar, and we should rather recognize the reforms they were making and so on,” remembered Niels Fuglsang, a Danish MEP from the same S&D group. “I thought it was obvious that our group should criticize this, we are social democrats, we care about workers’ rights and migrants’ rights.”

    For example, on November 21, Kaili pressed José Ramón Bauzá Díaz, a Spanish centrist MEP who ran the Qatari-EU friendship group, over his political faction’s stance on the resolution, poised to slam Qatar’s human rights track record. 

    “So, your group wants to vote in favor of a resolution Against Qatar World Cup,” she WhatsApped to him. He said: “It is crazy.” She went on to press him to take a pro-Qatari stance and reject the resolution. 

    Later that day, in a now-infamous video, Kaili took to the stage during Parliament’s plenary session and sung the praises of Qatar. “I alone said that Qatar is a front-runner in labor rights,” she said. “Still, some here are calling to discriminate them. They bully them and they accuse everyone that talks to them, or engages, of corruption. But still, they take their gas.”

    With a crunch vote on the resolution’s final wording still to take place on November 24, Kaili was still going strong, texting with Abdulaziz bin Ahmed Al Malki, the Gulf country’s envoy to the European Union and NATO.

    During this exchange, the Qatari gave Kaili direct instructions to take action on legislation of interest to Qatar.

    “Hi Iva,” wrote the Qatari in a WhatsApp message on November 24. “My dear my ministry doesn’t want paragraph A about FIFA & Qatar. Please do your best to remove it via voting before 12 noon or during the voting please.”

    Kaili deleted her responses.

    Eva Kaili has challenged the lifting of her immunity in an EPPO investigation at the European Court of Justice | Nicolas Bouvy/EPA via EFE

    But the recipient appeared to be pleased with what she texted, writing back a few hours later: “Thanks excellency” with a hands-clasped-in-prayer emoji.

    The Qatar Embassy in Brussels and the spokesperson’s office in Doha did not respond to requests for comment.

    * * *

    Plainclothes Belgian police arrested Giorgi at 10:42 a.m. on December 9 at his home in Brussels. Earlier, they had picked up Panzeri. According to her statements to police, Kaili did not immediately know what had happened and originally thought Giorgi was involved in a car accident. She was told by police that her partner had been arrested. 

    Having tried and failed to get through by phone to Panzeri and his friends, Kaili set about trying to get rid of the stacks of cash in her apartment.

    She headed to the safe that Giorgi had installed in their apartment and started to shovel stacks of bills into a travel bag. On top of them, she placed baby bottles for her child as well as a mobile phone and a laptop computer. Then she told her father, a civil engineer and sometime political operator who was visiting the family in Brussels, to take the bag and go to a hotel, where her father’s partner and Kaili’s baby were waiting. “I didn’t leave him the choice,” she later told police. “I just said, ‘Take this and go.’” 

    A few hours later, police followed Kaili’s father as he walked to the Sofitel, a short distance from their flat. According to a person familiar with the details of the investigation, bank notes were fluttering out of the bag as he went. Cops stopped Kaili’s father inside the hotel, seized the suitcase and detained him. Then it was Kaili’s turn. In the early afternoon, police detained her and took her to the Prison de Saint-Gilles. 

    The next day, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) announced it was investigating Kaili and another Greek member of Parliament in a probe looking at whether she took kickbacks from her assistant’s salaries as well as cuts of their reimbursements for “fake” work trips. Kaili has challenged the lifting of her immunity in this case at the European Court of Justice.

    As the one-year anniversary of her spectacular downfall has approached, Kaili and her lawyers have done their best to turn the tables on the prosecutors, casting doubt on the evidence gathered against her and the way the investigation was carried out. Since her arrest, and through a four-month incarceration, Kaili has never wavered from her story. Her advocacy for Qatar, she has argued, was just part of her job as a European politician trying to foster ties with a petroleum-rich country in a region of critical importance to the EU.

    Kaili’s lawyers have argued that the testimony provided by Panzeri, who has struck a deal with investigators and confessed in detail, cannot be trusted. Giorgi’s lawyer, Pierre Monville, has maintained his client’s statements were made under duress. “Whatever Giorgi has declared or written during his detention was under extreme pressure and preoccupation regarding the fact that his daughter was left without her parents,” he said.

    Kaili’s lawyers have also noted that police kept Panzeri and Giorgi in the same cell in the days after their detention, giving them a chance to coordinate their stories. Kaili’s lawyers argue she was subjected to illegal surveillance, arbitrary detention and what amounts to “torture” while in jail.

    The Qatargate suspects won a major victory last summer when the lead investigator, Michel Claise, stepped down over conflict-of-interest concerns after it was revealed that his son was in business with the son of an MEP who was close to Panzeri but hasn’t been arrested or charged. 

    Then, in September, Kaili played the ace up her sleeve, throwing the entire investigation in doubt with a legal challenge arguing that the evidence against her should be ruled inadmissible because it was gathered before the European Parliament voted to lift the immunity she enjoyed as a lawmaker. 

    The Qatargate suspects won a major victory last summer when the lead investigator, Michel Claise, stepped down over conflict-of-interest concerns | BELPRESS

    Prosecutors retort that such a step wasn’t needed because Kaili had been caught red-handed by her decision to send her father out with a suitcase full of cash, but the case has been delayed pending a decision on her challenge by an appeals court expected in the middle of next year.  

    “We’re exploring uncharted legal territory here,” said a person familiar with the case, who requested anonymity as they were not allowed to speak on the record. In the meantime, Kaili is back in Parliament, giving interviews to international media and losing few opportunities to make the case for her innocence to her fellow lawmakers.

    Giorgi and Kaili are, by all accounts, living together again. One of her lawyers says they’ve been given dispensation to do so, despite the fact that they are suspects in the same case. 

    Kaili and Giorgi declined to comment for this article, but they clearly haven’t given up the fight. Giorgi’s WhatsApp status is “FORTITUDINE VINCIMUS” — through endurance, we conquer. 

    Kaili’s profile pic on the app features the famous quote often wrongly attributed to Mahatma Gandhi:

    “First they ignore you.

    Then they laugh at you.

    Then they fight you.

    Then you win.”

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    Nicholas Vinocur, Elisa Braun, Eddy Wax and Gian Volpicelli

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  • Portugal backs UN in bitter feud with Israel, which vowed to ‘teach them a lesson’

    Portugal backs UN in bitter feud with Israel, which vowed to ‘teach them a lesson’

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    Portugal’s Foreign Minister João Gomes Cravinho on Wednesday said his government supported António Guterres’ position on the Israel-Hamas war, amid an escalating dispute between the United Nations secretary-general and Israeli authorities.

    “We fully understand and follow the position of António Guterres, who was unequivocal when he condemned Hamas terrorism,” Gomes Cravinho told Portuguese newswire Lusa. “There is no way to say that António Guterres is in any way excusing terrorism.”

    The Portuguese foreign minister also dismissed Israel’s calls for Guterres — who is Portuguese — to resign.

    Guterres also received Germany’s support, with a spokesperson for the government in Berlin saying on Wednesday it had confidence in the U.N. chief, according to Reuters.

    On Tuesday, Guterres said during a Security Council meeting that the violent Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 “did not happen in a vacuum,” triggering furious reactions from Israel.

    In response, Israel’s U.N. ambassador Gilad Erdan told Israeli radio on Wednesday morning that the country has denied a visa to U.N. Under Secretary-General Martin Griffiths, following Guterres’ comments.

    “Due to his remarks we will refuse to issue visas to U.N. representatives … The time has come to teach them a lesson,” Erdan told Army Radio, reported Times of Israel.

    Guterres followed up in the early hours of Wednesday morning, saying that the “horrendous attacks” by Hamas “cannot justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.”

    Guterres’ initial “vacuum” remarks were slammed by Erdan, who said “the Secretary-General is completely disconnected from the reality in our region” and called for his resignation. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen also announced he would no longer meet with Guterres.

    Some top Western officials have been appealing to Israel to mitigate its response against civilians in Gaza, a coastal strip of land where more than two million Palestinians live and where Hamas militants are in control.

    Following Hamas’ deadly attack in early October, which killed more than 1,400 people, Israel has carried out relentless retaliatory airstrikes and put the Gaza Strip under a “complete siege,” cutting off fuel, electricity and water, and killing more than 6,500 people.

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    Claudia Chiappa

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  • Rishi Sunak to sign UK-India trade deal without binding worker or environment pledges

    Rishi Sunak to sign UK-India trade deal without binding worker or environment pledges

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    LONDON — Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s trade deal with India will not include legally enforceable commitments on labor rights or environmental standards, five people briefed on the text have told POLITICO.

    British businesses and unions now fear the deal’s already-finalized labor and environment chapters will undercut U.K. workers’ rights and efforts to combat climate change.

    Sunak’s government is racing to score a win with the booming South Asian economy ahead of the 2024 election. His plans for a return trip to India in October with the aim of sealing the pact are still on track.

    Sunak and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi added impetus to negotiations when they met on the sidelines of the G20 in New Delhi early this month. The 13th round of talks continues in London this week.

    Just days after Sunak’s meeting with Modi, Badenoch’s team shared the deal’s labor and environment chapters with businesses, unions and trade experts on a September 13 briefing call.

    Key enforceable dispute resolution powers which the U.K. set out to negotiate are missing from those chapters, said the five people briefed on the text. It means neither London nor New Delhi can hold the other to their climate, environmental and workers’ rights commitments.

    Businesses, unions and NGOs now fear the deal could undercut British firms because Indian firms operate to less stringent and expensive environmental and labor standards. Firms and unions say their access to the negotiations was curtailed earlier this year as talks progressed.

    “Industry also wants binding commitments — partly for greater certainty, partly because businesses are made up of people who themselves want to be properly treated and to avoid climate catastrophe,” said a senior British businessperson from the services sector briefed on the chapters. They were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the negotiations.

    “Suppression of trade unions, child labor and forced labor are all widespread in India,” said Rosa Crawford, trade lead at the Trades Union Congress (TUC) — the largest coalition of unions in Britain. “But the labor chapter that the U.K. government has negotiated cannot be used to clamp down on these abuses and could lead to more good jobs being offshored to exploitative jobs in India.”

    The Department for Business and Trade said it does not comment on live negotiations and that it will only sign a deal that benefits the U.K. and its economy.

    ‘Everyone was deeply unhappy’

    At the outset of the talks, the British government committed to negotiating enforceable labor and environment chapters as it laid out its strategic approach. “We remain committed to upholding our high environmental, labour, food safety and animal welfare standards in our trade agreement with India,” the government said in January 2022.

    Indian and British officials say the labor and environment chapters are now closed and are not up for discussion. The U.K.’s first post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand have dispute settlement mechanisms in both these chapters. Three people POLITICO spoke to for this piece said it was an achievement in itself that Britain was able to get such chapters in a deal with India.

    Businesses, unions and NGOs have all been concerned after Kemi Badenoch closed the key forums in February to carry out a required review of their activities | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

    But, as the U.K.-India deal stands, if either country were to weaken its environmental standards or workers’ rights “the other party would not have recourse to initiate consultations on changes in laws,” said a person familiar with the content of the chapters. “There is no dispute settlement in the environment and labor chapters.”

    British firms and unions are also concerned that the pact the EU is negotiating with India has enforceable chapters “bound by sanctions in case the parties don’t comply,” the same person said. Those EU-India chapters are not yet finalized.

    British stakeholders “are totally up in arms,” said a former trade department official familiar with the briefing. “Everyone was deeply unhappy.”

    India has changed its labor laws to deprive workers of the right to strike. Over the past year several Indian states, including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh, have weakened their workers’ rights laws making 12-hour daily shifts and overnight shifts for women legal as Apple iPhone maker Foxconn sets up multiple semiconductor factories and assembly plants throughout India.  

    Adding enforceable chapters would only slow down negotiations, said an Indian government official. “If you put in too much of these things into a trade deal, then it delays the process.” The U.K. and India are already “bound by” their international commitments on labor and climate, they added.

    The deal “is dire for working people because trade unions were excluded from the trade talks,” said the TUC’s Crawford. Nearly three years ago, ministers pitched the idea of involving unions in 11 influential Trade Advisory Groups (TAGs) that gave input on ongoing trade negotiations.  

    Businesses, unions and NGOs have all been concerned after Britain’s trade chief Kemi Badenoch closed the key forums in February to carry out a required review of their activities. International Trade Minister Nigel Huddleston received officials’ recommendations to restructure the groups in mid-August. A final decision is expected before the end of the year.

    With 40-50 people on the U.K. government’s current briefing calls about the India trade deal there’s little businesses or unions can do to feed into negotiations. Officials can “only really be in transmit mode,” said a business representative familiar with the briefings.

    “What this means in real terms is that decisions are being made about the future of people’s livelihoods, people’s health, and the environment we all depend on without any input from those who will be impacted,” said Hannah Conway, trade and agriculture policy advisor at the NGO Transform Trade.

    “It’s crucial,” she said, “that the government addresses its democratic deficit on trade policy by undertaking meaningful consultation with civil society and businesses.”

    “It’s high time the government rethinks its approach,” said the TUC’s Crawford, “and includes unions in trade talks — that’s how you get trade deals that work for working people.”

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    Graham Lanktree

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  • Russia declares Nobel Prize-winning journalist ‘foreign agent’

    Russia declares Nobel Prize-winning journalist ‘foreign agent’

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    Dmitry Muratov, one of Russia’s best-known journalists, has been added to the country’s list of foreign agents, less than two years after the Kremlin praised the principled reporting that saw him awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.

    Muratov, the former editor of now-shuttered liberal newspaper Novaya Gazeta, was included in an update Friday evening to the Russian Ministry of Justice’s register of journalists, politicians and activists that Moscow claims are acting on behalf of hostile states.

    The designation of foreign agent, which has been repeatedly used on critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin and opponents of his war in Ukraine, means that Muratov will have to adhere to strict rules on political activity. It also bars him from engaging in public life. Any mention of him in Russian media or social networks must reference his status.

    According to Human Rights Watch, “in Russia, the term foreign agent is tantamount [to] spy or traitor,” and has been used “to smear and punish independent voices.”

    The decision to accuse Muratov of being under undue influence from abroad flies in the face of the Russian state’s own previous assessment of his journalism. After Muratov won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov offered his congratulations and said the long-time editor “consistently works according to his own values, is committed to those values, is talented, and is brave.”

    Muratov was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Filipino-American reporter Maria Ressa for “their efforts to safeguard freedom of expression, which is a precondition for democracy and lasting peace.”

    Since the start of its increasingly catastrophic war in Ukraine, Russia has all but eliminated the country’s independent media outlets, imposing harsh penalties for those considered to be “discrediting the Russian armed forces.”

    Many Russian journalists have been forced to move abroad to continue their work. Muratov’s Novaya Gazeta was forced to cease operations in Russia in April 2022, weeks after the start of the war and has since been forcibly closed by the state, though it has continued to publish online.

    Moscow has also detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich since March 29 on espionage charges, for which no evidence has been presented. U.S. President Joe Biden has branded the arrest, the first of an accredited correspondent on spying allegations since the end of the Cold War, “totally illegal.”

    In August, POLITICO reporter Eva Hartog was expelled from Russia after she was refused an extension to her visa.

    Earlier this week, the Nobel Foundation faced criticism from both Swedish and Ukrainian politicians after it decided to invite Russian ambassadors to attend this year’s awards ceremony.

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    Gabriel Gavin

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  • Sun, sea and sanctions evasion: Where Russians are spending the summer

    Sun, sea and sanctions evasion: Where Russians are spending the summer

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    Even as war rages in Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russians are eyeing popular holiday destinations for a summer break — or even a safe haven to wait out the conflict.

    While a weaker ruble and growing economic woes means many ordinary families will be spending the warmer months on their dachas or taking a break inside Russia, those with enough cash to travel are wasting little time jetting off to sunny spots across Europe and Asia.

    That means countries still willing to take their money are tapping into a lucrative market. But that can come at a cost, and the politics of taking tens of thousands of tourists from a pariah state is already creating trouble in paradise for some popular destinations.

    Here are six of the top places Russians are spending their vacations.

    Turkey

    As lazy travel writers so often put it, Turkey is a nation that straddles East and West. That old cliché has taken on new meaning since the start of the war in Ukraine, with the NATO member state offering support to Kyiv while at the same time refusing to impose sanctions on Moscow.

    Ankara, as a result, has seen much-needed foreign cash flood into the country as Russians look to move their assets abroad. It’s also one of the only European destinations not to have banned flights from Russia: While the EU’s skies are closed, Turkish operators are offering flights from Moscow to sunny destinations like Antalya and Bodrum for as little as €130.

    In the first half of the year, Turkey’s tourism revenues grew by more than a quarter, hitting $21.7 billion, statistics released this week show, with as many as 7 million Russians expected to visit the country this year.

    Some have even decided to stay — as many as 145,000 Russians currently have residency permits. But while they’ve escaped political instability and the risk of conscription, they are sharing their new home country with tens of thousands of Ukrainians who’ve fled Russia’s war.

    That’s created tensions in resort towns like Antalya, which is popular with both Russians and Ukrainians. And given Turkey’s growing anti-migrant sentiment in the wake of May’s presidential elections, both groups could be at risk of being sent home.

    Georgia

    The South Caucasus country holds an almost mythical status in the minds of Russians — and its reputation for having some of the best nature, food and hospitality in the former Soviet Union has made it a go-to destination for middle-class holidaymakers, who flock to its Black Sea beaches and snow-capped mountains or kick back in trendy Tbilisi.

    In 2022 alone, more than 1.1 million Russians visited Georgia, up from just 200,000 the year before. That number is on the rise after Moscow in May relaxed rules banning direct flights.

    Under the ruling Georgian Dream party, Tbilisi has sought closer relations with the Kremlin since the start of the war and aimed to profit off Russian wanderlust. But many locals are less sure.

    In 2022 alone, more than 1.1 million Russians visited Georgia, up from just 200,000 the year before | Jan Kruger/Getty Images

    In a poll conducted in March, only 4 percent of the 1,500 people surveyed said Russians are welcome in Georgia, while a quarter said Russians were tolerated because of the cash they spend when they visit. More than one in three insisted Russian visitors should be banned until Moscow relinquishes control of the occupied regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia — accounting for around a fifth of Georgia’s territory.

    Tensions are on the rise, with local Georgian and Ukrainian activists staging protests against Russian cruise ships docking in the port city of Batumi over the weekend. Clips shared by local media show Russian holidaymakers defending Russia’s 2008 war against Georgia and taunting the demonstrators from their balconies.

    Thailand

    It’s not only about the gleaming luxury resorts and party beaches. For Russians, the appeal of traveling to Thailand has a lot to do with the month of visa-free travel they’re granted.

    The number of Russians visiting Thailand has shot up by more than 1,000 percent over the past year, according to a Bloomberg report. Official statistics show 791,574 Russians traveling to the country in the first half of this year alone.

    The party city of Phuket has seen a particular influx, with close to half of all villas sold there since January being bought up by Russians — either as holiday homes or as party pads where they can wait out the war.

    That rise in tourism comes as Moscow has also sought to forge closer ties with the kingdom. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov — one of the most committed supporters of the war in Ukraine — flew into Bangkok in July to hail “the importance of boosting cooperation in trade and investment.”

    United Arab Emirates

    Dubai isn’t to everyone’s taste. But the billionaires’ playground and its pristine beaches have become a sought-after destination for many wealthy Russians looking for a friendly welcome — and a place to spend huge sums in opulent malls.

    The number of Russians jetting to the Gulf nation shot up by 63 percent last year, making them the second largest tourism market. The UAE has also seen a surge in Russian expats, who report feeling more at ease in the desert city than in Western countries because there are no public displays of support for war-ravaged Ukraine.

    The influx comes as ties between Russia and the UAE are also booming, with Russian firms relocating to the Gulf nation and the Kremlin selling vast volumes of discounted oil to the country.

    But analysts warn that pressure from the U.S., U.K. and EU is making it increasingly difficult to the UAE to profit from sanctions evasion, meaning Russian tourists may find their welcome doesn’t last forever.

    Cyprus

    The island of Cyprus has long been known as Moscow on the Med — a homage to the country’s largest tourist market.

    Those beach holidays are now largely out of reach for ordinary Russians, after Cyprus followed other EU member states in banning commercial flights from Russia and last year imposed an €80 fee for visas. The decision, officials say, has cost the country €600 million worth of income.

    The island of Cyprus has long been known as Moscow on the Med | Roy Issa/AFP via Getty Images

    But, for those who can stump up the costs, flights from Russia with a brief stop in Istanbul or Yerevan cost around €250. Cyprus has also been one of the most prolific issuers of so-called “golden passports,” which offer EU citizenship in exchange for as little as €2.5 million in investment.

    While no statistics exist on how many Russians have taken advantage of the scheme, the country has been under pressure to cancel travel documents for sanctioned oligarchs. As many as 222 passports have already been withdrawn, including those belonging to several Russian billionaires.

    Ukraine

    For Russians with regular jobs and limited cash to spend abroad, country houses and holiday parks are still the most popular option.

    Until recently, many of them would be headed to Ukraine’s occupied Crimean peninsula. An iconic spot for vacations and sanatorium breaks since the days of the Soviet Union, many Russians have bought second homes or paid for package holidays to the region’s Black Sea coast since it was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014.

    Now, a spate of explosions at military facilities and Kyiv’s insistence that Crimea will come back under its control when it wins the war has worried many Russians.

    With air traffic close to the border diverted, one of the only remaining routes into the peninsula is across the car and railway bridge opened by President Vladimir Putin in 2018. That bridge has repeatedly been struck by Ukrainian forces looking to disrupt Russian military convoys.

    As a result, officials say, hotels are on average more than half empty — despite heavy promotions and discounts. Local proprietors say the situation is even more dire than the government is prepared to admit.

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    Gabriel Gavin

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  • Chinese embassy slams Moscow over Russian border incident

    Chinese embassy slams Moscow over Russian border incident

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    The Chinese embassy in Moscow on Friday criticized “brutal and excessive law enforcement by Russia” after five Chinese citizens were denied entry into the country.

    In a post on Chinese social media platform WeChat, the embassy said the incident had “seriously damaged the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens.”

    On attempting to enter Russia on July 29, the group of Chinese citizens was “repeatedly” questioned for “up to 4 hours,” according to the statement. They had their tourist visas canceled and were refused entry, it said.

    The incident is “inconsistent with the overall situation of friendly Sino-Russian relations and the trend of increasingly close friendly exchanges of personnel between the two countries,” added the embassy. “The Russian side is required to immediately find out the cause of the incident, take active measures to eliminate the bad influence, and ensure that similar incidents will not recur in the future.”

    Beijing committed to a “no-limits partnership” with Moscow just two days before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. It is among the Kremlin’s top remaining allies, and has not condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin for the invasion.

    Representatives of the Chinese government this weekend are joining more than 40 countries in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for Saudi-hosted — and Kremlin-free — Ukraine peace talks.

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    Leonie Cater

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  • US limits visa waiver for Hungarians

    US limits visa waiver for Hungarians

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    The United States on Tuesday sharply limited Hungary’s participation in its visa waiver program over security concerns regarding new passports issued between 2011 and 2020. 

    Under the American Visa Waiver Program, citizens of participating countries can travel to the U.S. for tourism or business for up to 90 days without a visa, and simply need a so-called Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA). 

    But starting Tuesday, ESTA validity for Hungarian passport holders will be reduced from two years to one, and an ESTA will only be valid for a single use. 

    The unprecedented move, in response to security concerns, affects Hungary as the only one of 40 countries participating in the U.S. program. 

    After coming to power in 2010, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government implemented a major policy change that granted citizenship to ethnic Hungarians abroad — including in Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine. Domestic critics say Orbán’s controversial move was designed to boost his electoral prospects.

    David Pressman, the U.S. ambassador in Budapest, told POLITICO in an interview ahead of the announcement, “There are hundreds of thousands of passports that have been issued by the government of Hungary as part of the simplified naturalization program without stringent identity verification mechanisms in place.”

    The U.S. government has been engaging the Hungarian government on this “security vulnerability” for many years and across multiple administrations, Pressman said. But “the government of Hungary has opted not to close” it. 

    Responding to the American decision, Hungary’s interior ministry said the country “will not disclose the data of Hungarians beyond the border with dual citizenship because that would risk their security” and accused the White House of “taking revenge on Hungarians with the new visa waiver limit.”

    “This is a really unfortunate day,” Pressman said. “This is not the outcome the United States sought or is seeking.”

    Washington’s move comes at a time when Hungary’s relationship with Western partners is at a low point.

    Budapest’s NATO allies are deeply frustrated that Hungary’s parliament has yet to ratify Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. 

    There are also ongoing concerns about senior Hungarian officials promoting Kremlin-style narratives at home, as well as over efforts to water down European sanctions targeting Moscow. Earlier this year, the U.S. imposed sanctions on a Hungary-based bank linked to Russia. 

    Many Western countries have spoken out about deteriorating democratic standards in Hungary, as well as policies and rhetoric they say undermine the rights of LGBTQ+ people there. 

    Pressman underscored how American experts had previously identified ways the security concerns could be addressed. 

    The U.S. in 2017 made Hungary’s status in the visa waiver program provisional, while security concerns were also behind a decision to render Hungarians born outside the country ineligible starting in 2020. 

    Now, however, all Hungarian passport holders will be affected. 

    “This is about a choice,” the ambassador said. “The Hungarian government thus far has chosen not to address that security concern, which has led the United States to respond.”

    This article has been updated with a response from the Hungarian interior ministry.

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    Lili Bayer

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  • Sweden still not ready for NATO, Erdoğan tells Biden

    Sweden still not ready for NATO, Erdoğan tells Biden

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    Ankara hasn’t seen sufficient progress from Sweden to support its application to join NATO, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned U.S. President Joe Biden in a phone call Sunday ahead of a summit of NATO leaders this week.

    “Erdoğan stated that Sweden has taken some steps in the right direction by making changes in the anti-terrorism legislation,” Turkey’s communications directorate said in a statement following the bilateral call.

    But the supporters of “terrorist organizations” — pro-Kurdish groups including the PKK and YPG, which are banned in Turkey — continue to hold demonstrations in Sweden, the statement said. “This nullifies the steps taken,” it said.

    The call comes ahead of a two-day summit of NATO leaders in Lithuania that starts on Tuesday. Biden has thrown his support behind a push to get a deal done on Sweden at the meeting in Vilnius.

    Erdoğan’s administration has been blocking Sweden’s hopes of joining the defense alliance, accusing Stockholm of backing Kurdish separatism. While it had initially accused Finland of doing the same, Erdoğan later gave the green light on Helsinki’s application and the country became a NATO member in April.

    Biden and Erdoğan also discussed the sale of U.S. F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in the call, with the Turkish president “noting that it is not correct to associate” Ankara’s request for F-16 aircraft with Sweden’s NATO membership bid, according to the statement.

    On the call, Erdoğan also brought up Turkey’s “desire to revive the EU membership process,” according to the statement. The Turkish president said he would like to see EU member states send a “clear and strong message” in support of its EU bid at the NATO summit in Lithuania.

    While Turkey became a candidate for full membership of the EU in 1999, talks have effectively stalled over the past decade. The country has not committed to making the reforms required to meet the criteria set out by Brussels.

    Erdoğan and Biden agreed to meet face-to-face in Vilnius and discuss Turkey-U.S. bilateral relations and regional issues in detail, according to the Turkish statement.

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    Gabriel Gavin

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  • Why is the U.S. punishing foreign musicians with higher visa fees? This is going to hurt – National | Globalnews.ca

    Why is the U.S. punishing foreign musicians with higher visa fees? This is going to hurt – National | Globalnews.ca

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    Back in the fall of 2020, when COVID-19 shut down the live music industry, the United States Department of Homeland Security quietly proposed increases in the cost of visas necessary for foreign musicians who want to tour America.

    The new asking price of a “P-3″ visa, the one needed by musicians who want to play live in America, would rise to US$690 from US$460, a jump of 67 per cent. Another document, the four flavours of the “O” visa (required by people with “extraordinary ability or achievement” or accompanying people/relatives of such people) also had a proposed increase.

    These proposals landed at a time when no one was on the road, so the timing suggests that the U.S. wanted the new fees to slip under the radar. Those who noticed expressed concern about the increased financial burden on any non-American act. There was some initial chatter about the situation, but with months of COVID lockdowns ahead, no one paid too much attention and the increases were never put into place.

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    But then earlier this year, the U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USIC) tried again. This time, the all-important “P” visa would jump to US$1,615 from US$460. That’s a bump of 250 per cent. Let’s break this down:

    • US$1,615 for a solo artist or a band (P visa)
    • US$1,615 for the road crew (P via)
    • US$190 (at minimum) per relative/accompanying person)

    Assuming a four-piece band, their road crew, a manager, and one boyfriend/girlfriend/spouse, that’s US$3,420 (nearly $4,600 Canadian) before you even get to the border — actually, you have to apply at least three months before you leave home. Sure, you can have your petition expedited and pushed through within five days or so, but that’s another US$1,440 (or roughly C$1,935). That means a grand total of C$6,535 before the band sees a dime from the tour. This, of course, is in addition to transportation, fuel, salaries, hotel rooms, and food.

    Those costs have also gone up, of course. With so much touring activity going on the cost of renting gear, trucks, and buses has skyrocketed. And because so many roadies left the business during COVID-19, their kind of labour and expertise is in short supply and costs more.

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    Homeland Security/USIC say that the increases in visa fees are necessary because they haven’t increased since 2016 when P visas went up to the current US$460 from around US$275, a bump of 42 per cent. That raised some red flags at the time, but for the most part, this became a normal cost of doing business.

    So why just a hike now? The revenue from new ultra-high fees will be applied (at least partly) to hiring more people to deal with the post-COVID backlog of requests for visas. Some of the money will also help pay for some U.S. asylum programs. In other words, the U.S. government is making foreign acts pay for its inability to get its bureaucratic act together when it comes to its borders.

    If you’re an act of a certain size, any new fee is just another annoying line item in the touring budget spreadsheet. But if you’re an emerging artist, an artist from a marginalized community, or even a solid medium-sized group, this kind of money doom any possibility of touring the biggest music market in the world.

    This is a disaster because staying home and touring through just Canada is very expensive. I’ve heard from some acts who have returned from a Canadian tour in debt. And if it becomes too expensive to tour the U.S. — well, you see the problem. More Canadian artists looking toward Europe instead, but that features its own financial hassles.

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    Here’s proof that there’s just too much music being made. WAY too much.

    Let’s say you’re in a solid middle-class band that often ducks south to play a couple of border cities on short regional tours. Cities like Buffalo and Detroit get plenty of these shows. But if you’re in the hole by $4,600 to begin with, it’s just not possible. And imagine the panic of Mexican bands who want to head north for a tour.

    Fine. So let’s retaliate by hiking our visa fees for American bands who want to play shows up here. The crazy thing is that there’s nothing reciprocal about this. Depending on how many dates an American artist wants to play in Canada, the visa costs may be — wait for it — zero.

    And just in case you think that only Canadian musicians are being asked to pay for U.S. bureaucratic bungling, these proposed new fees will affect all touring acts from anywhere in the world. There’s a U.K. campaign launched by the Featured Artists Coalition called Let the Music Move. Its goal is to ask people “to call on the U.K. government to do more to support the future of the music industry, and to raise awareness of proposals in the U.S. to significantly increase the costs for performers seeking visas to perform in the country.”

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    The live music industry is in big trouble. Here’s why

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    There have also been calls by the Music Managers Forum for something to be done. It says that 84 per cent of the acts under the care of its member managers want to tour the U.S. but 70 per cent of them say they’ll abandon those plans if the fees kick in.

    (Britain has to be careful about pointing fingers. Since Brexit, it’s been very difficult for British bands to tour the continent and vice-versa. The recent plight of a German band called Trigger Happy is a case in point; they had a U.K. tour scuppered because of border bureaucracy. Meanwhile, it’s estimated that the post-Brexit cost of a U.K. band to tour the continent has increased by at least 40 per cent.)

    Even bigger acts are taking notice of the costs and hassles. Roger Daltrey of The Who recently told USA Today that it’s doubtful the band will ever tour America again. “[T]ouring has become very difficult since COVID. We cannot get insured and most of the big bands doing arena shows, by the time they do their first show and rehearsals and get the staging and crew together, all the buses and hotels, you’re upwards $600,000 to a million in the hole. To earn that back, if you’re doing a 12-show run, you don’t start to earn it back until the seventh or eighth show. That’s just how the business works.”

    The U.S. should tread carefully with this cash grab. Andrew Cash, the president and CEO of the Canadian Independent Music Association penned an op-ed for The Globe and Mail:

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    In the U.S., every $1 spent on a concert ticket has a ripple effect of $3.30 in the local economy, according to a study by Oxford Economics Group,” Cash wrote.

    “That multiplier includes concertgoer spending on things such as transportation, band merch, meals and drinks, lodging, retail, and recreation. And by some estimates, musicians touring the U.S. spend an average of US$3,000 a week on food, gas and lodging. In total, the Canadian Independent Music Association estimates that Canadian touring contributes more than $2 billion annually to the U.S. economy. Now include artists from the U.K., Europe and Asia to this list — not to mention Mexico and South America — and you’d think even the biggest music market in the world would want a piece of this action.”

    It’s insanity, really. How is this a win for anyone other than the USIC and Homeland Security?

    Entire careers are riding on the outcome. Ottawa needs to do something.

    Alan Cross is a broadcaster with Q107 and 102.1 the Edge and a commentator for Global News.

    Subscribe to Alan’s Ongoing History of New Music Podcast now on Apple Podcast or Google Play

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  • 2023’s most important election: Turkey

    2023’s most important election: Turkey

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    For Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, next month’s election is of massive historical significance.

    It falls 100 years after the foundation of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic and, if Erdoğan wins, he will be empowered to put even more of his stamp on the trajectory of a geostrategic heavyweight of 85 million people. The fear in the West is that he will see this as his moment to push toward an increasingly religiously conservative model, characterized by regional confrontationalism, with greater political powers centered around himself.

    The election will weigh heavily on security in Europe and the Middle East. Who is elected stands to define: Turkey’s role in the NATO alliance; its relationship with the U.S., the EU and Russia; migration policy; Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine; and how it handles tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

    The May 14 vote is expected to be the most hotly contested race in Erdoğan’s 20-year rule — as the country grapples with years of economic mismanagement and the fallout from a devastating earthquake.

    He will face an opposition aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi,” who is promising big changes. Polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu has eked out a lead, but Erdoğan is a hardened election campaigner, with the full might of the state and its institutions at his back.

    “There will be a change from an authoritarian single-man rule, towards a kind of a teamwork, which is a much more democratic process,” Ünal Çeviköz, chief foreign policy adviser to Kılıçdaroğlu told POLITICO. “Kılıçdaroğlu will be the maestro of that team.”

    Here are the key foreign policy topics in play in the vote:

    EU and Turkish accession talks

    Turkey’s opposition is confident it can unfreeze European Union accession talks — at a standstill since 2018 over the country’s democratic backsliding — by introducing liberalizing reforms in terms of rule of law, media freedoms and depoliticization of the judiciary.

    The opposition camp also promises to implement European Court of Human Rights decisions calling for the release of two of Erdoğan’s best-known jailed opponents: the co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş and human rights defender Osman Kavala.

    “This will simply give the message to all our allies, and all the European countries, that Turkey is back on track to democracy,” Çeviköz said.

    Even under a new administration, however, the task of reopening the talks on Turkey’s EU accession is tricky.

    Turkey’s opposition is aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi” | Burak Kara/Getty Images

    Anti-Western feeling in Turkey is very strong across the political spectrum, argued Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.

    “Foreign policy will depend on the coherence of the coalition,” he said. “This is a coalition of parties who have nothing in common apart from the desire to get rid of Erdoğan. They’ve got a very different agenda, and this will have an impact in foreign policy.”

    “The relationship is largely comatose, and has been for some time, so, they will keep it on life support,” he said, adding that any new government would have so many internal problems to deal with that its primary focus would be domestic.

    Europe also seems unprepared to handle a new Turkey, with a group of countries — most prominently France and Austria — being particularly opposed to the idea of rekindling ties.

    “They are used to the idea of a non-aligned Turkey, that has departed from EU norms and values and is doing its own course,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş a visiting fellow at Brookings. “If the opposition forms a government, it will seek a European identity and we don’t know Europe’s answer to that; whether it could be accession or a new security framework that includes Turkey.”

    “Obviously the erosion of trust has been mutual,” said former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, arguing that despite reticence about Turkish accession, there are other areas where a complementary and mutually beneficiary framework could be built, like the customs union, visa liberalization, cooperation on climate, security and defense, and the migration agreement.

    The opposition will indeed seek to revisit the 2016 agreement with the EU on migration, Çeviköz said.

    “Our migration policy has to be coordinated with the EU,” he said. “Many countries in Europe see Turkey as a kind of a pool, where migrants coming from the east can be contained and this is something that Turkey, of course cannot accept,” he said but added. “This doesn’t mean that Turkey should open its borders and make the migrants flow into Europe. But we need to coordinate and develop a common migration policy.”

    NATO and the US

    After initially imposing a veto, Turkey finally gave the green light to Finland’s NATO membership on March 30.

    But the opposition is also pledging to go further and end the Turkish veto on Sweden, saying that this would be possible by the alliance’s annual gathering on July 11. “If you carry your bilateral problems into a multilateral organization, such as NATO, then you are creating a kind of a polarization with all the other members of NATO with your country,” Çeviköz said.

    A protester pushes a cart with a RRecep Tayyip Erdoğan doll during an anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstration in Sweden | Jonas Gratzer/Getty Images

    A reelected Erdoğan could also feel sufficiently empowered to let Sweden in, many insiders argue. NATO allies did, after all, play a significant role in earthquake aid. Turkish presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın says that the door is not closed to Sweden, but insists the onus is on Stockholm to determine how things proceed.

    Turkey’s military relationship with the U.S. soured sharply in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system, a move the U.S. said would put NATO aircraft flying over Turkey at risk. In response, the U.S. kicked Ankara out of the F-35 jet fighter program and slapped sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.

    A meeting in late March between Kılıçdaroğlu and the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake infuriated Erdoğan, who saw it as an intervention in the elections and pledged to “close the door” to the U.S. envoy. “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this elections,” the irate president told voters.

    In its policy platform, the opposition makes a clear reference to its desire to return to the F-35 program.

    Russia and the war in Ukraine

    After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey presented itself as a middleman. It continues to supply weapons — most significantly Bayraktar drones — to Ukraine, while refusing to sanction Russia. It has also brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea.

    Highlighting his strategic high-wire act on Russia, after green-lighting Finland’s NATO accession and hinting Sweden could also follow, Erdoğan is now suggesting that Turkey could be the first NATO member to host Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    “Maybe there is a possibility” that Putin may travel to Turkey on April 27 for the inauguration of the country’s first nuclear power reactor built by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, he said.

    Çeviköz said that under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, Turkey would be willing to continue to act as a mediator and extend the grain deal, but would place more stress on Ankara’s status as a NATO member.

    “We will simply emphasize the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, and in our discussions with Russia, we will certainly look for a relationship among equals, but we will also remind Russia that Turkey is a member of NATO,” he said.

    Turkey’s relationship with Russia has become very much driven by the relationship between Putin and Erdoğan and this needs to change, Ülgen argued.

    Turkey brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea | Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images

     “No other Turkish leader would have the same type of relationship with Putin, it would be more distant,” he said. “It does not mean that Turkey would align itself with the sanctions; it would not. But nonetheless, the relationship would be more transparent.”

    Syria and migration

    The role of Turkey in Syria is highly dependent on how it can address the issue of Syrians living in Turkey, the opposition says.

    Turkey hosts some 4 million Syrians and many Turks, battling a major cost-of-living crisis, are becoming increasingly hostile. Kılıçdaroğlu has pledged to create opportunities and the conditions for the voluntary return of Syrians.

    “Our approach would be to rehabilitate the Syrian economy and to create the conditions for voluntary returns,” Çeviköz said, adding that this would require an international burden-sharing, but also establishing dialogue with Damascus.

    Erdoğan is also trying to establish a rapprochement with Syria but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he will only meet the Turkish president when Ankara is ready to completely withdraw its military from northern Syria.

    “A new Turkish government will be more eager to essentially shake hands with Assad,” said Ülgen. “But this will remain a thorny issue because there will be conditions attached on the side of Syria to this normalization.”

    However, Piccoli from Teneo said voluntary returns of Syrians was “wishful thinking.”

    “These are Syrians who have been living in Turkey for more than 10 years, their children have been going to school in Turkey from day one. So, the pledges of sending them back voluntarily, it is very questionable to what extent they can be implemented.”

    Greece and the East Med

    Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with the Erdoğan even warning that a missile could strike Athens.

    But the prompt reaction by the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and a visit by the Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new backdrop for bilateral relations.

    A Turkish drill ship before it leaves for gas exploration | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

    Dendias, along with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced that Turkey would vote for Greece in its campaign for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for 2025-26 and that Greece would support the Turkish candidacy for the General Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization.

    In another sign of a thaw, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi visited Turkey this month, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar saying he hoped that the Mediterranean and Aegean would be a “sea of friendship” between the two countries. Akar said he expected a moratorium with Greece in military and airforce exercises in the Aegean Sea between June 15 and September 15.

    “Both countries are going to have elections, and probably they will have the elections on the same day. So, this will open a new horizon in front of both countries,” Çeviköz said.

    “The rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in their bilateral problems [in the Aegean], will facilitate the coordination in addressing the other problems in the eastern Mediterranean, which is a more multilateral format,” he said. Disputes over maritime borders and energy exploration, for example, are common.

    As far as Cyprus is concerned, Çeviköz said that it is important for Athens and Ankara not to intervene into the domestic politics of Cyprus and the “two peoples on the island should be given an opportunity to look at their problems bilaterally.”

    However, analysts argue that Greece, Cyprus and the EastMed are fundamental for Turkey’s foreign policy and not much will change with another government. The difference will be more one of style.

    “The approach to manage those differences will change very much. So, we will not hear aggressive rhetoric like: ‘We will come over one night,’” said Ülgen. “We’ll go back to a more mature, more diplomatic style of managing differences and disputes.”

    “The NATO framework will be important, and the U.S. would have to do more in terms of re-establishing the sense of balance in the Aegean,” said Aydıntaşbaş. But, she argued, “you just cannot normalize your relations with Europe or the U.S., unless you’re willing to take that step with Greece.”

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    Nektaria Stamouli

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  • Baltics and Poland push to make sanctioning oligarchs’ associates easier

    Baltics and Poland push to make sanctioning oligarchs’ associates easier

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    The Baltic states and Poland want to make it easier to sanction the family members and entourage of Russia’s richest men and women but are facing resistance from Hungary, several EU diplomats told POLITICO.

    Under its current rules, the EU can freeze the assets and impose visa bans on “leading businesspersons operating in Russia.” Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland now want to expand this definition, according to their proposal seen by POLITICO, to include “their immediate family members, or other natural persons, benefitting from them.”

    The EU has sanctioned more than 1,400 people in relation to Russia’s activities in Ukraine, many of who are Russian oligarchs. An additional 96 people could be added to the EU’s next sanctions package, draft documents seen by POLITICO indicate. Including oligarchs’ family members and other associates of oligarchs would make it possible to sanctions thousands more people without having to prove that they are directly involved in the war in Ukraine or acting in the economic interest of the Russian state.

    This could, for example, apply to the ex-wife of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lyudmila Ocheretnaya, whose daughters have been sanctioned but has not been herself, and other members of the oligarchs’ entourage.

    While some countries had doubts, legal experts are on board, said one of the diplomats.

    Yet, in a meeting on Tuesday, at which EU ambassadors discussed the bloc’s next round of sanctions, Hungary resisted such plans, the diplomats said. Budapest argued that this is not part of the 10th sanctions package, said one of the diplomats. Hungary has long been skeptical of including too many names on the list.

    Hungary also pushed to strike four people out the already existing sanctions list, two of the diplomats said.

    It was not immediately possible to learn the identity of the four individuals.

    That request is igniting tensions, and will be likely subject to another heated debate during a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday. During that meeting, they will not only discuss the new package of sanctions against Russia, but also the so-called rollover of the 1,400-plus names already on the list to keep them sanctioned.

    That’s because the regime is subject to a six-month review, which has hitherto been more or less a formality. Now, Hungary is using this extension review as leverage by insisting that four specific people have to be struck from the EU’s existing sanctions list before it will agree to the rollover. If Hungary blocks the rollover and refuses to compromise, all 1,400 people would be de-listed, the two diplomats warned.

    One of the diplomats didn’t hide his frustration: “It shows Hungary’s disregard for unity and European values that they are willing to risk this in the week where we commemorate one year since the Russian invasion,” he said.

    And those aren’t the only measure that Hungary takes issue with. It also is chiefly against sanctioning personnel working in the nuclear sector.

    But a Hungarian official poured water on this last point, saying that “the only open issue for Hungary is with the length of the rollover and not with the listings.”

    On the oligarchs issue and the proposal of the Baltics and Poland, the same Hungarian official said that this is not part of the 10th package.

    As all EU countries have to agree to the proposal, any country could veto the move even if all other 26 EU countries were in favor. Time is running out, with the EU wanting to adopt the 10th sanctions package before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Friday.

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  • Ukraine wants to join EU within two years, PM says

    Ukraine wants to join EU within two years, PM says

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    Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has a tight two-year timetable for securing EU membership that is bound to dominate discussions at this week’s historic EU-Ukraine summit, the first to take place on Ukrainian soil.

    The problem? No one within the EU thinks this is realistic.

    When EU commissioners travel to Kyiv later this week ahead of Friday’s summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the heads of the European Commission and Council, their main task is likely to involve managing expectations.

    Shmyhal himself is imposing a tough deadline. “We have a very ambitious plan to join the European Union within the next two years,” he told POLITICO. “So we expect that this year, in 2023, we can already have this pre-entry stage of negotiations,” he said.

    This throws down a gauntlet to the EU establishment, which is trying to keep Ukrainian membership as a far more remote concept.

    French President Emmanuel Macron said last year it could be “decades” before Ukraine joins. Even EU leaders, who backed granting Ukraine candidate status at their summit last June, privately admit that the prospect of the country actually joining is quite some years away (and may be one reason they backed the idea in the first place.) After all, candidate countries like Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro have been waiting for many years, since 1999 in Ankara’s case.

    Ukraine is a conundrum for the EU. Many argue that Brussels has a particular responsibility to Kyiv. It was, after all, Ukrainians’ fury at the decision of President Viktor Yanukovych to pull out of a political and economic association agreement with the EU at Russia’s behest that triggered the Maidan uprising of 2014 and set the stage for war. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it: Ukraine is “the only country where people got shot because they wrapped themselves in a European flag.”

    Ukraine’s close allies in the EU such as Poland and the Baltic countries strongly support Kyiv’s membership push, seeing it as a democracy resisting an aggressor. Many of the EU old guard are far more wary, however, as Ukraine — a global agricultural superpower — could dilute their own powers and perks. Ukraine and Poland — with a combined population of 80 million — could team up to rival Germany as a political force in the European Council and some argue Kyiv would be an excessive drain on the EU budget.  

    Short-term deliverables

    Friday’s summit in Kyiv — the first EU meeting of its kind to take place in an active war zone — will be about striking the right balance.

    Though EU national leaders will not be in attendance, European Council officials have been busy liaising with EU member states about the final communiqué.

    Some countries are insisting the statement should not stray far from the language used at the June European Council — emphasizing that while the future of Ukraine lies within the European Union, aspirant countries need to meet specific criteria. “Expectation is quite high in Kyiv, but there is a need to fulfill all the conditions that the Commission has set out. It’s a merit-based process,” said one senior EU official.

    Ukraine is a conundrum for the EU. Many argue that Brussels has a particular responsibility to Kyiv | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

    Still, progress is expected when Zelenskyy meets with von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.

    Shmyhal told POLITICO he hopes Ukraine can achieve a “substantial leap forward” on Friday, particularly in specific areas — an agreement on a visa-free regime for industrial goods; the suspension of customs duties on Ukrainian exports for another year; and “active progress” on joining the SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area) payments scheme and the inclusion of Ukraine into the EU’s mobile roaming area.  

    “We expect progress and acceleration on our path towards signing these agreements,” he said.

    Anti-corruption campaign

    The hot topic — and one of the central question marks over Ukraine’s EU accession — will be Ukraine’s struggle against corruption. The deputy infrastructure minister was fired and deputy foreign minister stepped down this month over scandals related to war profiteering in public contracts.

    “We need a reformed Ukraine,” said one senior EU official centrally involved in preparations for the summit. “We cannot have the same Ukraine as before the war.”

    Shmyhal insisted that the Zelenskyy government is taking corruption seriously. “We have a zero-tolerance approach to corruption,” he said, pointing to the “lightning speed” with which officials were removed this month. “Unfortunately, corruption was not born yesterday, but we are certain that we will uproot corruption,” he said, openly saying that it’s key to the country’s EU accession path.

    He also said the government was poised to revise its recent legislation on the country’s Constitutional Court to meet the demands of both the European Commission and the Venice Commission, an advisory body of the Council of Europe. Changes could come as early as this week, ahead of the summit, Shmyhal said.

    Though Ukraine has announced a reform of the Constitutional Court, particularly on how judges are appointed, the Venice Commission still has concerns about the powers and composition of the advisory group of experts, the body which selects candidates for the court. The goal is to avoid political interference.

    Shmyhal said these questions will be addressed. “We are holding consultations with the European Commission to see that all issued conclusions may be incorporated into the text,” he told POLITICO.

    Nonetheless, the symbolic power of this week’s summit is expected to send a strong message to Moscow about Ukraine’s European aspirations.

    European Council President Michel used his surprise visit to Kyiv this month to reassure Ukraine that EU membership will be a reality for Ukraine, telling the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) that he dreams that one day a Ukrainian will hold his job as president of the European Council.

    “Ukraine is the EU and the EU is Ukraine,” he said. “We must spare no effort to turn this promise into reality as fast as we can.”

    The key question for Ukrainians after Friday’s meeting will be how fast the rhetoric and promises can become a reality.

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  • Qatar slams EU corruption accusations, puts energy cooperation in doubt

    Qatar slams EU corruption accusations, puts energy cooperation in doubt

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    Qatar criticized the European Parliament for banning the Gulf state’s representatives at the institution, warning that this “discriminatory” move could harm broader EU-Qatari cooperation where the bloc is dependent on Doha, including with energy.

    The Parliament last week barred Qatari representatives from entering the premises and suspended legislation related to the country that include visa liberalization and planned visits. The moves followed allegations of corruption involving attempts to influence officials at the Parliament.

    “The decision to impose such a discriminatory restriction … will negatively affect regional and global security cooperation, as well as ongoing discussions around global energy poverty and security,” a Qatari diplomat said in a statement on Sunday reported by media. The statement added that the decision “demonstrates that MEPs have been significantly misled.”

    “It is unfortunate that some acted on preconceived prejudices against Qatar and made their judgments based on the inaccurate information in the leaks rather than waiting for the investigation to conclude,” the statement said. The World Cup host “firmly” rejects the allegations “associating our government with misconduct,” it said.

    EU countries have increasingly turned to Qatar in a bid to diversify energy supplies and make up for shortfalls amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Germany last month signing a 15-year contract for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Doha provided a quarter of the EU’s LNG imports last year.

    Belgian authorities have charged four people with links to the Parliament — including one of the institution’s vice presidents, Eva Kaili — with “criminal organization, corruption and money laundering” over allegations they accepted payments in exchange for doing the bidding of Qatar in Parliament. Kaili has since been stripped of her duties, while authorities have carried out raids on at least 20 homes and offices in Belgium, Greece and Italy in recent days.

    Qatar also criticized Belgium for keeping the Gulf state in the dark about the investigation, which Belgian authorities said had taken more than a year before they made the first arrest this month.

    “It is deeply disappointing that the Belgian government made no effort to engage with our government to establish the facts once they became aware of the allegations,” the diplomat said in the statement.

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    Victor Jack

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