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Tag: Viktor Orbán

  • FACT FOCUS: Trump says Thanksgiving dinner will cost 25% less this year. His numbers are misleading

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    With Thanksgiving less than three weeks away, the question of how much this year’s turkey and trimmings will cost looms large, especially with grocery prices 2.7% higher than they were in 2024.

    President Donald Trump has claimed over the past two days that costs for the Thanksgiving meal are down 25% this year, citing a prepackaged Thanksgiving meal basket from Walmart.

    “I just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night, they’ve done it for many years, that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than Thanksgiving last year,” he said during a news conference on Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

    But Trump’s numbers are off. Here’s a closer look at the facts.

    CLAIM: Walmart prices show that the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is 25% lower in 2025 than in 2024.

    THE FACTS: This is misleading. While Walmart’s 2025 meal basket costs about 25% less than the one from 2024, that’s because it offers fewer items and different products that make it more affordable.

    “It’s not apples to apples, right?” said David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M University. “What this does highlight is individual retailers’ strategies for getting customers in the door.”

    The 2025 basket costs less than $40 and feeds 10 people, about $4 a head, according to Walmart. In 2024, a basket for eight cost approximately $56, less than $7 per person. That’s about a 25% decrease, possibly more depending on price fluctuations. John Furner, president and CEO of Walmart U.S., touted the savings in a LinkedIn post last month.

    But the baskets differ significantly. For example, this year’s includes just 15 items compared to last year’s 29. It is missing many dessert items, including a pecan pie, mini marshmallows and muffin mix, as well as savory items such as sweet potatoes, yellow onions and celery stalks.

    The superstore retailer has also substituted some products. Instead of 12 sweet Hawaiian rolls, the 2025 deal includes 12 dinner rolls. Both are from Walmart’s store brand. It also offers Kinder’s crispy fried onions as opposed to French’s.

    Plus, the amount of each item varies. Customers were promised a 10-16 pound turkey in 2024, but a 13.5 pound one this year. And they’ll get one can of cream of mushroom soup instead of two.

    “They’re marketing it that ‘hey, this is a more affordable way,’ yet that implies that ‘man, stuff’s a lot more expensive,’” Anderson said. “I guess it’s good marketing.”

    A Thursday press release from the White House also cited cheaper Thanksgiving deals at Lidl’s, Aldi’s, Target and Schnucks.

    Target’s four-person meal costs less than $20, about the same as in 2024, but substitutes green beans and cream of mushroom soup for French bread and frozen corn — also not an apples-to-apples comparison.

    Schnucks provided The Associated Press with a press release saying the retailer is offering consumers its lowest price on a frozen store-brand turkey in over 15 years. It declined further comment. Lidl US said it is offering its Thanksgiving meal at the lowest ever price and Aldi said its price was lower than 2024. Target and Walmart did not comment.

    According to a recent report from Wells Fargo, the cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has fallen 2% to 3% since 2024, depending in part on whether customers go for national name brands or cheaper store labels. The White House press release also cited this report.

    Some economists have concerns about the price of turkey. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture reported at the end of October that wholesale prices are up 75% since October 2024, while retail prices are 25% higher than a year ago.

    An earlier analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation found that wholesale turkey prices were up about 40%.

    And yet, that doesn’t mean every bird will be pricier in 2025. Anderson explained that because certain retailers, such as Walmart, contract their turkeys well in advance, the price for customers might be much lower than the market currently indicates.

    “That gives them the flexibility to run those types of specials,” he said.

    ___

    Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.

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  • The Man Threatening Viktor Orbán’s 15-Year Grip on Hungary

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    OROSZLÁNY, Hungary—Jabbing his finger at a life-size cardboard cutout of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Péter Magyar wooed the voters of this coal-mining town with a feisty speech about corruption and economic decline.

    Magyar, Orbán’s main rival in next year’s pivotal election, mocked him as a mafia boss, a Turkish sultan and Ali Baba with 40 thieves. He concluded with the Russian phrase “Tovarishchi, konetz”—or comrades, it’s over—the motto of the 1990 democratic election that ousted Hungary’s Soviet-installed regime.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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    Yaroslav Trofimov

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  • Hungary Backs US-Russia Deal While Facing EU ‘Threats’: F…

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    Hungary‘s top diplomat told Newsweek that the only path to obtaining peace in Ukraine and ensuring Europe‘s security ran through a stable relationship between the United States and Russia, vowing Budapest would not back down in the face of pressure from EU and NATO allies on this front and others.

    Speaking Tuesday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where his counterparts from Washington and Moscow were soon set to meet, Hungarian Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Peter Szijjarto said his country would “welcome such an event, because we in Central Europe have a very clear historical experience.”

    “And this experience says that in case the Americans and the Russians are able to maintain a civilized cooperation, then we in Central Europe enjoy a better security,” Szijjarto told Newsweek. “If the Americans and the Russians fail to maintain a civilized relationship, then we are concerned about the consequences on our security.”

    But as President Donald Trump suddenly took aim at Russia in a remarkable shift Tuesday — promised ongoing U.S. military aid to NATO’s pro-Ukraine war effort and even suggesting Ukraine could take back territory it has lost — Szijjarto maintained only a deal between the U.S. leader and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin could pave the path toward peace in Ukraine.

    He argued such rapprochement, for which both Trump and Putin had previously called, could also make strides in stabilizing the region.

    “I really do believe that the only solution for this war is a comprehensive American-Russian agreement,” Szijjarto said. “If there’s no Russian-American agreement, I see very limited hope for peace here. The Russians and Americans should come to a big agreement, part of which could end up in in peace returning to the central part of Europe, certainly.”

    ‘The Only Hope for Peace’

    Yet many on the continent, including Poland, are calling for tougher measures toward the Kremlin and have expressed skepticism toward Trump’s diplomatic engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin—with whom Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has also retained ties.

    But if the White House’s overtures have failed to make sufficient progress, Szijjarto argues it may be Trump’s detractors who are to blame for adopting policies that have fueled the conflict rather than quell it.

    “I have to tell you that we do consider President Trump as the only hope for peace in Ukraine,” Szijjarto said, “because during the time before him taking office, there had been no hope, because both the former American administration and the current European leaders are very much pro-war. They are more interested in prolonging the war than concluding it, and therefore it is only President Trump who can make the change here, who can give hope for a peaceful settlement.”

    “So, I think that his efforts must be respected pretty much,” Szijjarto said. “And I can tell you that if European leaders had not put so many efforts in undermining the peace process, I would say he would have had a good chance to resolve the issue until now.”

    Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, a number of European countries have taken aim at Hungary over its efforts to maintain a neutral position. Orban, who has served as premier since 2010 after previously leading from 1998-2002, declared early on that his nation would not join efforts to send weapons to Ukraine, nor would it participate in economic sanctions against Russia.

    On top of this, Szijjarto said, “we have a big Hungarian community in Ukraine, the right of which have been very heavily violated by the Ukrainian state.”

    For these positions, and particularly for Hungary’s push for ceasefire and negotiations as “the only solution” to the war, he said “we have been accused of being the puppet of Putin and the spies of Russians by those who are now [calling for] the same ceasefire talks.”

    Crude Geography

    The latest showdown has erupted over Russian oil and gas shipments, which Trump is calling on all EU countries to suspend. Hungary has steadfastly refused, even in the face of reported plans by the European Commission to unlock more than $465 million in frozen funds as members seek to win over Budapest’s vote to tighten restrictions against Moscow.

    Szijjarto says Hungary’s position is not rooted in politics or ideology, but rather geography.

    “Being a landlocked country with a certain infrastructure, the biggest part of the energy supply is determined,” Szijjarto said. “We have two oil pipelines leading to Hungary, one from Russia, the other one from the Adriatic Sea through Croatia. Well, if you cut the Russian oil deliveries, then you rely on the on the very last and only remaining pipeline. But that pipeline has a lower capacity, way lower capacity compared to the demand of Hungary and Slovakia together.”

    “So basically,” he added, “if someone would like to cut us from the Russian oil supplies, would end up in endangering the country’s energy supply simply because of physics.”

    A similar situation exists as it relates to natural gas, the main supply of which now comes to Hungary from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline that connects Russia and Turkey. This route proved crucial in January as Kyiv refused to a renew a decades-long gas transit agreement with Moscow.

    Ukraine has been tied to kinetic action as well, however, with Kyiv striking Russian infrastructure involved in carrying oil to European nations, such as Hungary, including in two incidents last month. Further complicating the situation, according to Szijjarto, have been added fees to the Croatia oil link and EU opposition to exploring alternative gas options in Qatar and Azerbaijan.

    “So, the problem is that, on one hand, you are being pushed to get rid of the existing, reliable sources, but there’s no alternative,” Szijjarto said. “So, it would be totally different if they say, ‘Okay, guys, get out and you have option one, two, three,’ but there’s nothing.”

    In fact, he explained, “the only Western politician whom I talked to in the last 11 years I’m in this position who said that, ‘Yes, geography must be respected,’ was Marco Rubio”—another sign of the robust ties between the Trump and Orban administrations.

    Battle Between Budapest and Brussels

    Divisions between Hungary and EU leadership run even deeper than opposing views on the war in Ukraine. The Brussels-based bloc has censured Budapest, freezing funds and demanding fines, over an array of domestic policies, including those relating to asylum-seekers and LGBTQ+ communities.

    Here, too, Szijjarto sees an ally in Trump, referring to the Orban administration’s approach as “Hungary First” and “Make Hungary Great Again.” He calls the relationship between the nations, their leaders and outlooks “unique.”

    “If you look at the major dilemmas facing the world and countries one by one, in all cases, basically we will look at the same way to solve them,” Szijjarto said, “so a very strong anti-migration policy, wall on the border, fence on the border, pro-family policies, pushing back this gender ideology, marriage between one man and one woman, mother is a woman, father is a man, supporting families, supporting peace to come, a patriotic, economic, political strategy, the role of Christianity to be respected.”

    Through this lens, he said “the driving line of foreign policy is national interest.”

    “And we always reject that intellectually pretty low approach, which says that you are pro-American, pro-Russian, pro-Chinese,” he said. “No, we are pro-Hungarian. And we have made it very clear that we are not ready to give up our specificities. We are not ready to give up our national identity. We are not ready to get rid of our history, culture, religious heritage. No way.”

    “We are a Christian country for more than 1,000 years. We are proud of it, and we are not ready to melt this in a United States of Europe,” he added. “So, therefore, when it comes to the debates internally in the European Union, we are very clearly on the sovereignty side saying that, yes, the European Union must be strong, but it must be based on strong member states. So, we don’t want member states to be melted in a European Empire.”

    Concerns over the emergence of such an “empire ruled from Brussels,” as Szijjarto phrased it, have also helped propel a number of conservative movements across the EU, including a rise of right-wing nationalist populist parties in the likes of Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and elsewhere.

    Szijjarto refers to the historic wave of electoral victories of what he called “patriotic parties” across Europe as a natural reaction to a “very extremist liberal” agenda that had previously been taking root. At the same time, he felt established EU leaders were likely to take extreme measures to suppress the trend, including backing deals to sideline right-wing movements in countries like Austria and the Netherlands, or stirring up anti-government protests in Serbia.

    In Hungary, too, Szijjarto said that “Brussels does everything in order to put a puppet government in our place in the next elections,” which are due to take place in April. He argued Hungary was paying the price for its independent stance.

    “Hungary, as such, is an obstacle to this extreme liberal mainstream to overrule Europe,” Szijjarto said. “We are always the ones who say no. We are always the ones who put the spotlight on rationality and common sense, plus we prove that you can be successful while carrying out an anti-mainstream policy as well. And this is the most dangerous for this liberal mainstream, because what they say about themselves is that that’s the only progressive only successful way. “

    “And with our existence that we are following a different strategy, but still being successful, that cannot be digested by them,” he added. “And therefore, they try to do everything in order to support those who are against us and who have a chance, they think at least, to throw us out from government.”

    He referred to such actions as “threats,” that were being posed “very strongly” from Brussels to Budapest.

    “Because this liberal mainstream and this extremist liberal approach have weakened Europe a lot recently,” Szijjarto said. “Just look at where Europe was when it comes to the political weigh and economic weight, and compared to that, we are very weak.”

    “And this doesn’t happen out of scratch,” he added. “This happened because of bad decisions, because of mistakes, because of failures committed in and by Brussels.”

    Looking East

    But whereas Szijjarto emphasizes that Hungary remains a fully “committed” member of both the EU and NATO, he also says his nation could not ignore some of the opportunities emerging beyond the West.

    “We see the reality,” Szijjarto said. “We see that when it comes to the global economy, the Eastern part of the world is dictating the speed in most of the critical industries, in most of the critical parts of the global economy. And we want to be part of the benefits. So, therefore, our strategy, economically speaking, is economic neutrality.”

    The remarks are underscored by Orban’s “Eastern Opening” policy that has sought to channel Chinese and Russian investment, as well as historic roots in the East via Hungary’s observer status in the Organization of Turkic States. Orban was also one of two EU and NATO leaders, alongside Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, to attend China’s recent victory parade marking 80 years since the end of World War II.

    In an increasingly multipolar world where the traditional order is beset by crises, however, Szijjarto, who is also the country’s top trade official, said Hungary was far from alone in this maneuvering — even if it ultimately faced some of the most criticism for it.

    “When I compete for Chinese investments, for example, then my competitors are always Western European countries,” Szijjarto said. “And those Western European countries usually complain about the heavy presence of Chinese capital in Europe once they lose these competitions, which is very hypocritical in this regard.”

    “So, economic neutrality is a key factor of our strategy,” he added, “and we have taken a lot of benefit out of it.”

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  • JD Vance has long been on a quest to encourage more births in the United States

    JD Vance has long been on a quest to encourage more births in the United States

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    MIAMI (AP) — Five summers ago, Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance — then a 34-year-old memoirist and father of a 2-year-old boy — took the stage at a conservative conference and tackled an issue that would become a core part of his political brand: the United States’ declining fertility rate.

    “Our people aren’t having enough children to replace themselves. That should bother us,” Vance told the gathering in Washington. He outlined the obvious concern that Social Security depends on younger workers’ contributions and then said, “We want babies not just because they are economically useful. We want more babies because children are good. And we believe children are good, because we are not sociopaths.”

    Vance repeatedly expressed alarm about declining birth rates as he launched his political career in 2021 with a bid for the U.S. Senate in Ohio. His criticism then of Vice President Kamala Harris, now the Democratic presidential nominee, and other high-profile Democrats as “childless cat ladies” who didn’t have a “direct stake” in the country have drawn particular attention since Trump picked him as his running mate.

    The rhetoric could threaten the Republican ticket’s standing with women who could help decide the November election. But it’s delighted those in the pro-natalist movement that has, until now, been limited largely to policy wonks, tech executives and venture capitalists.

    “There’s no question the discussion around family life, childbearing and pronatalism has gotten a lot more popular and gotten media attention because of JD Vance,” said Brad Wilcox, the director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia and author of “Get Married.” Vance once referred to Wilcox as “one of my favorite researchers.”

    Vance’s spokespeople did not respond to messages seeking comment.

    An aspiring politician’s war against ‘anti-child ideology’

    Vance, who wrote a bestseller about his working-class upbringing, has been clear about making family formation a policy priority. He has suggested ideas such as allowing parents to vote on behalf of their children or following the example of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán of giving low-interest loans to married couples with children and tax exemptions to women who have four children or more.

    In a May 2021 interview with The Federalist’s podcast in which he said he was exploring a Senate run, Vance described a society without babies and kids as “pretty icky and pretty gross.”

    “We owe something to our country. We owe something to our future. The best way to invest in it is to ensure the next generation actually exists,” he said. “I think we have to go to war against the anti-child ideology that exists in our country.”

    Vance has suggested people without children should pay higher taxes than people who have children. That’s the spirit of the existing child tax credit at $2,000 per qualifying child, which Vance has said he’d love to see raised to $5,000. He has also mentioned in interviews he wants to ban pornography for minors, citing it as one of the causes for why people are marrying less and having fewer children.

    His anti-abortion views, he has said, are separate from his concerns on birth rates, arguing the procedure is not really driving the decline in fertility.

    What to know about the 2024 Election

    In several interviews, he’s argued policymakers should make it easier for two-parent households to be able to live on a single wage so that one of the parents can stay home with their children.

    “The ruling class is obsessed with their jobs. Even though they hate a lot of their jobs, they are obsessed with their credentials and they want strangers to raise their kids,” he told then-Fox News host Tucker Carlson in 2021. “But middle-class Americans, whatever their station in life, they want more time with their children.”

    Vance had a chaotic childhood raised mainly by his grandparents in southwestern Ohio and a mother who battled substance abuse, and her “revolving door of father figures” as he described in his book. He is now married to a trial lawyer he met at Yale Law School. The couple has three young children, who he has said attend preschool. Usha Vance left the law firm where she worked shortly after her husband was chosen as Trump’s running mate.

    Declining births in an aging America

    The U.S. was one of only a few developed countries with a fertility rate that ensured each generation had enough children to replace itself — about 2.1 kids per woman. But the number has been sliding since 2008 and in 2023 dropped to about 1.6, the lowest rate on record.

    Earlier this year, Vance cited fertility rates in arguing against American support for Ukraine.

    “Not a single country — even the U.S. — within the NATO alliance has birth rates at replacement level. We don’t have enough families and children to continue as a nation, and yet we’re talking about problems 6,000 miles away,” he said.

    Vance as well as researchers and experts on the pro-natalist movement also argue that immigrants can’t provide a long-term fix to the decline in birth rates. He has separately blamed immigrants for crime and creating “inter-ethnic conflict.”

    Demographers and other experts for years had predicted declining fertility rates would pose challenges for the Social Security system as fewer workers are supporting a growing aging population.

    Tech executives such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk and venture capitalist Peter Thiel, who donated millions for Vance’s primary race, have also been vocal about the decline in birth rates.

    “We as a nation, as a society, policymakers can’t be neutral on the question of family,” said Oren Cass, who founded a conservative think tank, American Compass, that is closely aligned with the senator.

    Cass, a former policy adviser for U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney, said he has known Vance for a decade and partnered on several events but said he was not speaking on behalf of the vice presidential nominee. He criticized how progressives have celebrated what he described as a culture of “you do you” and “all choices are equally valid,” when he considered the work of forming a family and raising children an “indispensable foundation” for the country.

    “That’s not to say, obviously, that you mandate or criminalize the alternative, but it is to say that we shouldn’t be neutral about it,” he said.

    Vance on the defense

    Vance’s views on birth rates have contributed to his rocky rollout as Trump’s running mate. Democrats went from labeling Trump and his Republican allies as a collective “threat to democracy” to calling both men “weird,” a strategy that coincided with Vance’s comments coming to light.

    Other unlikely critics have also piled on. Trump-backing influencer Dave Portnoy said Vance “sounds like a moron.” Former Republican congressman Trey Gowdy tried unsuccessfully to force an apology out of Vance for his denigrating of childless women on his Fox News show, introducing him with a story about a pair of Catholic nuns he met at an airport.

    Actress Jennifer Aniston, who has been open about her fertility issues, weighed in by saying she hopes Vance’s daughter does not face the same problems and she “truly can’t believe that this is coming from a potential VP of the United States.” Vance responded by calling her Instagram reaction “disgusting.”

    Trump has come to his defense, accusing Democrats of spinning things and expressing empathy for people who don’t get married or have children and are “every bit as good.”

    “He likes family. I think a lot of people like family. And sometimes it doesn’t work out,” Trump said in one interview. “But you’re just as good, in many cases a lot better than a person that’s in a family situation.”

    Vance’s wife has also tried to do some damage control, saying Vance was not referring to those who struggle with fertility or can’t get pregnant for medical reasons, though the ideas he proposes don’t make that distinction.

    “The reality is he made a quip in service of making a point he wanted to make that was substantive,” Usha Vance told an interviewer on “Fox and Friends.”

    Can Vance advance this?

    Wilcox, the author of “Get Married,” said JD Vance now needs to focus on convincing a broader audience that his ideas are worth pursuing.

    “The challenge for JD Vance is taking that attention and translating it into more of a concrete policy agenda that would be compelling to ordinary Americans and articulating a clear and positive agenda around making family formation both more affordable and more appealing,” Wilcox said.

    Supporters at a recent Trump rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, shrugged off Vance’s assertion that parents should have more of a vote than childless adults and expressed complicated feelings about his views.

    Kenneth “Nemo” Niemann, 70, said Vance might be speaking figuratively about giving parents more votes. His wife, Carol, 65, disagreed, saying Vance has been crystal clear that that is exactly what he means.

    The Niemanns had children later in life — their twins are 16 — and they spent far more of their adult lives as childless adults. And while they talked about how adults with children can have more to say when it comes to policies affecting children or they can have a different worldview about the future than childless adults, they still disagreed with Vance.

    “My sister never had children, but I can’t imagine my vote means more than hers,” Carol Niemann said.

    ___

    Associated Press writers Michelle R. Smith in Providence, Rhode Island, Mike Schneider in Orlando and Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, as well as Associated Press researcher Jennifer Farrar in New York, contributed to this report.

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  • China’s Xi calls on world powers to help Russia and Ukraine resume direct dialogue

    China’s Xi calls on world powers to help Russia and Ukraine resume direct dialogue

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    BEIJING – Chinese President Xi Jinping called on world powers to help Russia and Ukraine resume direct dialogue and negotiations during a meeting Monday with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

    Orbán made a surprise visit to China after similar trips last week to Russia and Ukraine to discuss prospects for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.

    Orbán praised China’s “constructive and important initiatives” for achieving peace and described Beijing as a stabilizing force amid global turbulence, according to CCTV.

    Besides Russia and Ukraine, the end of the war “depends on the decision of three world powers, the United States, the European Union and China,” Orbán wrote in a Facebook post showing him shaking hands with Xi.

    Orbán met with Xi just two months ago when he hosted the Chinese leader in Hungary as part of a three-country European tour that also included stops in France and Serbia, which unlike the other two is not a member of the European Union or NATO.

    Hungary under Orbán has built substantial political and economic ties with China. The European nation hosts a number of Chinese electric vehicle battery facilities, and in December it announced that Chinese EV manufacturing giant BYD will open its first European EV production factory in the south of the country.

    “Peace mission 3.0” is how Orbán captioned a picture posted early Monday on the X social media platform depicting him after having stepped off his plane in Beijing. He was being greeted by Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Hua Chunying and other officials.

    His previously unannounced visit comes on the heels of similar trips last week to Moscow and Kyiv, where he proposed that Ukraine consider agreeing to an immediate cease-fire with Russia.

    His visit to Moscow drew condemnation from Kyiv and European leaders.

    “The number of countries that can talk to both warring sides is diminishing,” Orbán said. “Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can speak to everyone.”

    Hungary assumed the rotating presidency of the EU at the start of July and Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested Orbán had come to Moscow as a top representative of the European Council. Several top European officials dismissed that suggestion and said Orbán had no mandate for anything beyond a discussion about bilateral relations.

    The Hungarian prime minister, widely seen as having the warmest relations with Putin among EU leaders, has routinely blocked, delayed or watered down EU efforts to assist Kyiv and impose sanctions on Moscow for its actions in Ukraine. He has long argued for a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine but without outlining what that might mean for the country’s territorial integrity or future security.

    That posture has frustrated Hungary’s EU and NATO allies, who have denounced Russia’s actions as a breach of international law and a threat to the security of countries in Eastern Europe.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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  • Sen. J.D. Vance Says The U.S. ‘Could Learn From’ Viktor Orbán’s Policies

    Sen. J.D. Vance Says The U.S. ‘Could Learn From’ Viktor Orbán’s Policies

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    The Ohio Republican is one of the top contenders to become Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

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  • Trump will meet with a senior Japanese official after court session in his hush money trial

    Trump will meet with a senior Japanese official after court session in his hush money trial

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    WASHINGTON – Former President Donald Trump is meeting with another foreign leader while he’s in New York for his criminal hush money trial.

    The presumptive GOP nominee will host former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso at Trump Tower on Tuesday, according to two people familiar with the plans who spoke on condition of anonymity because they had not been formally announced.

    Aso is just the latest foreign leader to spend time with Trump in recent weeks as U.S. allies prepare for the possibility that he could win back the White House this November.

    “Leaders from around the world know that with President Trump we had a safer, more peaceful world,” said Trump spokesperson Brian Hughes in a statement. “Meetings and calls from world leaders reflect the recognition of what we already know here at home. Joe Biden is weak, and when President Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, the world will be more secure and America will be more prosperous.”

    Trump met last week with Polish President Andrzej Duda at Trump Tower and also met recently with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

    Trump was close with Shinzo Abe, the former Japanese prime minister who was assassinated in 2022. Aso is vice president of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party and served as deputy prime minister and finance minister under Abe.

    Trump has threatened to impose broad new tariffs if he wins a second term.

    Early Tuesday morning, he complained about the U.S. dollar reaching a new high against the Japanese yen, calling it “a total disaster for the United States.”

    “When I was President, I spent a good deal of time telling Japan and China, in particular, you can’t do that,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform. “It sounds good to stupid people, but it is a disaster for our manufacturers and others.”

    The U.S. dollar is trading at above 150 yen recently, up from 130-yen mark a year ago, which has made it more costly for Japan to import goods but has boosted exports.

    President Joe Biden hosted current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House for talks and a state dinner earlier this month. During the visit, the leaders announced plans to upgrade U.S.-Japan military relations, with both sides looking to tighten cooperation amid concerns about North Korea’s nuclear program and China’s increasing military assertiveness in the Pacific.

    Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

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    Jill Colvin, Associated Press

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  • Hungary’s president resigns over a pardon of man convicted in child sexual abuse case

    Hungary’s president resigns over a pardon of man convicted in child sexual abuse case

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    Hungary’s conservative president has resigned amid public outcry over a pardon she granted to a man convicted as an accomplice in a child sexual abuse case, a decision that unleashed an unprecedented political scandal for the long-serving nationalist government.

    Katalin Novák, 46, announced in a televised message on Saturday that she would step down from the presidency, an office she has held since 2022. Her decision came after more than a week of public outrage after it was revealed that she issued a presidential pardon in April 2023 to a man convicted of hiding a string of child sexual abuses in a state-run children’s home.

    “I issued a pardon that caused bewilderment and unrest for many people,” Novák said on Saturday. “I made a mistake.”

    Novák’s resignation came as a rare piece of political turmoil for Hungary’s nationalist governing party Fidesz, which has ruled with a constitutional majority since 2010. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Fidesz has been accused of dismantling democratic institutions and rigging the electoral system and media in its favor.

    Hungary President Resigns
    Hungarian President Katalin Novàk in April 2023. 

    Andrew Medichini / AP


    Novák, a key Orbán ally and a former vice president of Fidesz, served as Hungary’s minister for families until her appointment to the presidency. She has been outspoken in advocating for traditional family values and the protection of children.

    She was the first female president in Hungary’s history, and the youngest person to ever hold the office.

    But her term came to an end after she pardoned a man sentenced to more than three years in prison in 2018 for pressuring victims to retract their claims of sexual abuse by the institution’s director, who was sentenced to eight years for abusing at least 10 children between 2004 and 2016.

    Hungary President Sexual Abuse
    People march during a protest after Hungarian president Katalin Novák issued a pardon in a child sexual abuse case in Budapest, Hungary, Feb. 9, 2024. 

    Denes Erdos / AP


    “Based on the request for clemency and the information available, I decided in April last year in favor of clemency in the belief that the convict did not abuse the vulnerability of the children entrusted to him,” Novák said Saturday. “I made a mistake, because the decision to pardon and the lack of justification were apt to raise doubts about zero tolerance for pedophilia. But here, there is not and nor can there be any doubt.”

    Also implicated in the pardon was Judit Varga, another key Fidesz figure who endorsed the pardon as Hungary’s then minister of justice. Varga was expected to lead the list of European Parliament candidates from Fidesz when elections are held this summer.

    But in a Facebook post on Saturday, Varga announced that she would take political responsibility for endorsing the pardon, and “retire from public life, resigning my seat as a member of parliament and also as leader of the EP list.”

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  • Tucker Carlson’s Putin interview: 9 takeaways

    Tucker Carlson’s Putin interview: 9 takeaways

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    Here are the takeaways from Putin’s sit-down with Carlson.

    1. Putin isn’t done with his war

    The main message Putin sought to convey to Americans: There’s no point helping Ukraine with more money and weapons. And Carlson, who has himself previously questioned U.S. support for Ukraine as it seeks to defend its people and its land in the face of Russia’s assault, was all too happy to help deliver that message.

    “If you really want to stop fighting, you need to stop supplying weapons. It will be over within a few weeks. That’s it,” Putin claimed, adding that it was up to the U.S. to tell Ukraine to come to the negotiating table.

    But that’s not really the full story, as Putin himself made clear in two telling responses to Carlson’s follow-up questions.

    First, asked whether Russia had achieved its war aims, Putin said: “No. We haven’t achieved our aims yet because one of them is de-nazification.” The claim that Russia is seeking to “de-nazify” Ukraine is widely seen as code for the removal of the country’s democratically elected (Jewish) president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In a strong indication of what he meant by his comment, Putin said “we have to get rid of those people” who he claimed, without basis, “support” Nazism.

    Second, when Carlson asked whether Putin would “be satisfied with the territory that you have now,” the Russian autocrat refused to respond, returning to his point about de-nazification and insisting he hadn’t yet finished answering the previous question. We’ll take that as another no.



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    Eva Hartog and Sergey Goryashko

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  • EU approves €50B Ukraine aid as Viktor Orbán folds

    EU approves €50B Ukraine aid as Viktor Orbán folds

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    The key bit of the text emphasizes the European Commission should be “objective, fair, impartial and fact-based” and guarantee “non-discrimination” when triggering the mechanism to block EU funding for national capitals.

    The concessions are seen in Brussels as minor, as leaders have avoided a scenario in which Orbán would have the possibility of a yearly veto on the financial lifeline for Ukraine. But this way, Orbán can proclaim victory at home by saying Hungary obtained a review.

    Orbán’s first public reaction to the deal came in a Facebook post in which said: “We fought it out! Hungarians can’t give money to Ukrainians! We do not participate in the war, we do not send weapons, we are still on the side of peace!”

    The deal comes after meetings with small groups of leaders on Thursday.  Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with the leaders of France, Germany and Italy, held a closed-door meeting with the Hungarian prime minister. The meeting was then widened to other leaders, including Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

    Several diplomats denied other concessions were given to Orbán, and that the increased pressure from leaders made clear to Budapest that there was no alternative than giving in on the money to Ukraine. A key element was rebuilding trust between Hungary and the European Commission, for which the extra line on the conditionality mechanism was key.

    Ketrin Jochecová contributed reporting to this story.



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    Gregorio Sorgi

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  • Viktor Orbán: The EU is blackmailing Hungary

    Viktor Orbán: The EU is blackmailing Hungary

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    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Thursday the European Commission is blackmailing Hungary by withholding billions in frozen funds over rule-of-law concerns.

    Orbán said the blackmail is “a fact,” even admitted by the blackmailers themselves — members of the European Parliament.

    “In our view, Hungary fulfils all the qualities of the rule of law, and when the European Commission has specific needs, we implement everything from them, and we are also cooperative,” Orbán told reporters in Budapest during a press conference. “You cannot blame me for doing everything I can to promote Hungary’s interests in such a blackmailed situation.”

    Orbán’s government has been embroiled in a long-standing dispute with Brussels, which has frozen billions of EU funds intended for Hungary over concerns about human rights and the rule of law in the country.

    Last week, the European Commission unblocked €10.2 billion in frozen EU cohesion funds earmarked for Hungary.

    The commission said the timing of the funding release — which came just a day before the European Council, where Orbán was threatening to block the start of Ukraine’s accession talks to the EU and a further aid package to Kyiv — was coincidental. But many EU politicians have warned Brussels not to give in to what they perceive as blackmail from the Hungarian leader.

    In the end, Orbán did a U-turn and allowed EU leaders to approve the start of negotiations for Ukraine to join the bloc.

    There is more money at stake for Budapest and Orbán is still blocking a €50 billion aid package for Kyiv, which leaders are set to discuss early next year.

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    Claudia Chiappa

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  • Turkey’s parliamentary committee approves Sweden’s NATO membership

    Turkey’s parliamentary committee approves Sweden’s NATO membership

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    The foreign affairs committee of the Turkish parliament on Tuesday gave its approval for Sweden to join NATO, reported Turkey’s Anadolu news agency.

    This brings Sweden a step closer to joining the Western military alliance. It also comes after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan delayed action on Sweden’s bid for a year, arguing the country is too friendly toward Kurdish activists regarded by Ankara as terrorists.

    Erdoğan has also linked the approval of Sweden’s accession to the sale of F-16 fighter jets by the United States to Turkey — something that’s currently pending approval by the U.S. Congress.

    The general assembly of the Turkish parliament now needs to give its final green light before Sweden can officially become a full NATO member. However, no date for this plenary vote has been set.

    The unanimous approval of all current NATO member countries is required for any new state to join the military alliance.

    Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán has also been stalling Sweden’s accession bid, saying last week that there was no “great willingness” from Hungarian lawmakers to approve it. This makes Hungary the last NATO member country that hasn’t started the ratification process.

    Sweden and Finland both dropped their neutrality and asked to join the alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Finland joined the alliance in April.

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    Louise Guillot

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  • EU leaders approve Ukraine accession talks, bypassing Orbán

    EU leaders approve Ukraine accession talks, bypassing Orbán

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    European leaders have approved the opening of accession negotiations for Ukraine, European Council President Charles Michel announced Thursday.

    The announcement comes at a critical time for Ukraine as its counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion stalled in recent weeks and $60 billion in aid from the U.S. is stuck in Congress.

    While accession talks are likely to continue on for many years, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the news was “a victory of Ukraine … a victory that motivates, inspires and strengthens.” This was a historic moment for Ukraine, which has made its aspirations to join the EU known for many years.

    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who had vehemently opposed the opening of accession talks for Ukraine, criticized the agreement reached without him by European leaders.

    “Hungary does not want to be part of this bad decision!” Orbán said in a statement posted on Facebook.

    Orbán left the room when the decision on enlargement was taken, according to a national official and a EU diplomat who were both briefed on the discussion. This allowed for an unanimous decision from the European Council, which another EU official, who like the others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the circumstances, said was completely legal under EU law.

    “If someone is absent, they are absent. Legally it is totally valid,” added the official.

    EU leaders will still meet during the summit to debate the €50 billion aid package to Ukraine. The summit is supposed to end on Friday but could last longer if leaders cannot come to an agreement by then.

    European leaders were quick to celebrate the announcement.

    Michel hailed the decision as “a clear signal of hope for their people and for our continent” in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.

    “Historic day! Against all odds, we achieved a decision to open accession negotiations with #Ukraine and #Moldova,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said.

    Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo similarly said the decision was “historic” and “an important message of hope for these countries and their citizens.”

    Leaders also approved the opening of accession negotiations for Moldova.

    Moldovan President Maia Sandu welcomed the agreement, and said her country was “committed to the hard work needed to become an EU member.”

    The much-awaited decision came surprisingly early, as Orbán had been threatening to use his veto to block the opening of accession talks in the days leading up to the summit.

    The European Council’s decision follows a recommendation from the European Commission, which had advised to open accession negotiations in November.

    Ukraine applied to join the EU in February 2022 — just days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country — and was granted candidate status in June.

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    Nicolas Camut

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  • Europe’s true beliefs on Ukraine are put to the test

    Europe’s true beliefs on Ukraine are put to the test

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    BRUSSELS As long as it takes? Or as long as we feel like it? 

    For nearly two years, the EU has promised to support “Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes” — taking in millions of Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s war of aggression, supporting Kyiv with financial and military aid, rallying diplomatic support across the world, and shrinking its economic and energy ties with Russia.  

    But the bloc’s 27 member states are now struggling to agree unanimously on a longer-term €50 billion aid package for Kyiv, as well as on opening the door to future membership as this week’s European Council summit commences. At a time when $60 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine is stuck in the U.S. Congress, support from Brussels is essential to Kyiv’s continuing fight against Russia. 

    The decision to open the EU’s door to Ukraine could also be existential to the future of the bloc, as it means incorporating a country of nearly 40 million people mired in a war with a powerful neighbor. Failure to agree on such a historic decision, meanwhile, would tarnish the image of European unity, not only on the EU’s long-term support for Ukraine but also on its overall geopolitical ambitions.

    The summit will be a “decisive one,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said at a press conference last Friday. 

    The prospect of joining the bloc is the biggest support the EU can provide to Ukraine, an EU diplomat said. “Let’s not forget that a part of the reason this war started — apart from whatever went [on] in the head of Putin — is Ukraine turning to the West.”

    The EU is now testing the limits of the promise “as long as it takes,” said Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. “Apparently as long as it takes means as long as we can agree. If we cannot, obviously that will have huge repercussions, first of all in Ukraine, but not just there.” 

    Litmus test

    It’s not the first test of the EU’s unity on supporting Ukraine. The bloc’s salvo of sanctions against Russia were often watered down because of the economic concerns of various EU countries, sometimes leading to weeks of horse-trading and internal wrangling. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in particular has regularly used his veto power to win concessions for Budapest, such as exemptions for Russian oil imports, but has so far never prevented an agreement.

    This time around, however, Orbán is rejecting not only extra money for Ukraine but also opening accession talks with Kyiv, calling the latter proposal “unfounded and poorly prepared.” Instead, Orbán wants a strategic debate on the EU’s Ukraine policy and is calling for a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine.

    Half a dozen senior EU officials and diplomats from across the bloc stressed that Hungary is isolated in its position, and that the 26 other member countries still support Ukraine and want Kyiv to be a part of the club in the long term. 

    Privately, however, many admit the war is no longer a top priority in the day-to-day of most EU leaders. 

    Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

    “Doubts are on the rise,” said one EU official, who like the others quoted was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “How desperate is the situation on the battlefield? How much more money will we pour into this black hole? Populists across Europe will ride this wave in the coming months.”

    As the June European elections approach, EU leaders are wary of favoring Ukraine over the daily concerns of their own citizens. Up to seven EU countries have stressed that the €50 billion to Kyiv must be linked to money for other European priorities such as tackling migration, precisely to avoid domestic criticism.

    “We now see an emerging group of countries who sometimes look like they have second thoughts about Ukraine becoming a member of the EU,” said one senior EU diplomat, citing Austria’s desire that future membership for Ukraine be linked with next steps on Bosnia-Herzegovina’s EU membership.

    Inertia

    The standstill on the battlefield doesn’t help. Months of static frontline combat between Ukraine and Russia have consumed weapons and money with no sign of a military breakthrough for Kyiv.

    The first six months of next year will be brutal for Ukraine, said Neil Melvin, a director at the RUSI think tank, with Russia managing to accelerate arms production and supplies while aid packages from Ukraine’s allies languish.

    Ukraine and its supporters argue that is exactly why the West should quickly provide more of the weapons that are needed to win — instead of falling into Russia’s trap. 

    Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday that now is the time to demonstrate “what it means to support Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes.’ Ukraine is not only fighting against the invader, but for Europe. Joining our family will be Ukraine’s ultimate victory.”

    Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told POLITICO that neither Ukraine nor the EU had a viable alternative to continuing to fight.

    “The next country that Russia may attack will be a European country, it will not be somewhere else,” he said. “If one side blinks it will be a very bad moment for that side … It’s not us who has to blink, we have to make Russia blink.”

    Increasingly, some EU diplomats are wondering whether Orbán has joined Putin in strategically waiting for Western support for Ukraine to disintegrate.

    With the election victory of a far-right party in the Netherlands; with a Russia-friendly leader taking power in Slovakia; and with an expected far-right surge in the next European election, Orbán’s claim that “the winds of change are here” seems prescient. A victory by former President Donald Trump in next year’s U.S. election could further undermine Western support for Kyiv.

    “Factors of inertia and doubt, which have characterized EU enlargement for years, are coming again to the fore and are cooling down the geostrategic rationale for opening up the EU to new members,” said Kai-Olaf Lang of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. 

    Hopes abide?

    Europe is pulling out the stops to avoid a car-crash summit, with EU leaders and their aides in frantic negotiations with Hungary on a deal to give Orbán more EU money in exchange for lifting his veto on aid to Ukraine. If that strategy fails, leaders are cooking up alternative plans to get the money to Ukraine via bilateral funding. 

    A deal on enlargement will prove more difficult, EU diplomats said. In theory that could be kicked down the road until EU leaders reconvene in March. 

    Politically, however, such a delay would be a massive blow to Ukraine and to the EU’s image, especially as Brussels has reassured Ukraine a decision would arrive sooner than later.

    Immediately after the war began in February 2022, von der Leyen said “Ukraine is one of us.” During a visit to Kyiv this fall she told the country’s parliament she was confident the decision on membership could still be taken this year. European Council President Charles Michel has said he hopes Ukraine will join the EU by 2030 — an ambitious date in any scenario.

    The decision to open the door to the EU is no less important as spiritual sustenance, said Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform. “The signal that you send by starting talks is that you are now on a train which is going towards a destination. If the Hungarians bar the door of the carriage and say you are not getting in, this is psychologically a blow to the Ukrainians.” 

    Joshua Posaner, Hanne Cokelaere, Pieter Haeck, Jacopo Barigazzi, Nicholas Vinocur, Aitor HernándezMorales, Clea Caulcutt and Camille Gijs contributed reporting.

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    Barbara Moens

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  • Sanctions aren’t working: How the West enables Russia’s war on Ukraine

    Sanctions aren’t working: How the West enables Russia’s war on Ukraine

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    BERLIN — At its summit this week, the European Union is threatening to name and shame more than a dozen Chinese companies that, it claims, are supplying critical technology to equip Russia’s war machine.

    But what about the Western companies that make dual-use and other advanced gear that is subject to sanctions and yet, according to an analysis of wreckage found on the Ukrainian battlefield, is used in Russian Kalibr missiles, Orlan drones and Ka-52 “Alligator” helicopters?

    Radio silence.

    So here’s a trivia question for you: Which company is the leading maker of the so-called “high-priority battlefield items” trafficked to Russia that the Western coalition wants to interdict?

    If you said Intel, then go to the top of the class: According to the sanctions team at the Kyiv School of Economics, the U.S. semiconductor giant again leads the pack this year. It’s followed by Huawei of China. Then come Analog Devices, AMD, Texas Instruments and IBM — all of which are American.

    Russian imports of microelectronics, wireless and satellite navigation systems and other critical parts subject to sanctions have recovered to near pre-war levels with a monthly run rate of $900 million in the first nine months of this year, according to a forthcoming report from the Kyiv School’s analytical center, the KSE Institute.

    All of this indicates that, while Western sanctions imposed over Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, had a temporary impact, Moscow and its helpers have largely succeeded in reconfiguring supply chains — with the help of China, Hong Kong and countries in Russia’s backyard like Kazakhstan and NATO member Turkey.

    That in turn begs the question as to whether, as the EU strives to deliver a 12th package of sanctions against Russia in time for a leaders’ summit on Thursday, the bloc is serving up yet another case study for the definition of insanity often attributed to Albert Einstein: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

    For Elina Ribakova, director of the international program at the KSE Institute, the Western private sector must also be held to account. It should, she argues, be required to track its products along the entire value chain to their final destination — just as banks were forced to tighten anti-money laundering controls and customer checks after the 2008 crash.

    “We have a policy in a void. We have put it on paper but we don’t have any infrastructure for the private sector to comply — or for us to check,” Ribakova told POLITICO. “We need to have the private sector enforce and implement this.”

    Intel, responding to a request for comment, said it had suspended all shipments to Russia and Belarus, its ally, and that it was compliant with sanctions and export controls against both countries issued by the U.S. and its allies.

    “While we do not always know nor can we control what products our customers create or the applications end-users may develop, Intel does not support or tolerate our products being used to violate human rights,” the company said in a statement. “Where we become aware of a concern that Intel products are being used by a business partner in connection with abuses of human rights, we will restrict or cease business with the third party until and unless we have high confidence that Intel’s products are not being used to violate human rights.”

    Anecdotal evidence

    The KSE Institute’s findings bear out, in a systematic way, the anecdotal findings of POLITICO’s own reporting this year: In our investigations, we showed how U.S.-made sniper ammunition finds its way into Russian rifles, and how China has positioned itself as Russia’s go-to supplier of nonlethal, but militarily useful, equipment

    As for Europe, while its companies may not feature among the top makers of critical technology sold to Russia, its industrial businesses are facing growing scrutiny over the supply of machinery and spare parts — often via third countries like Kazakhstan that have seen suspicious surges in imports.

    It’s here, also, that Europe has fallen down.

    In imposing sanctions, it’s a case of “all for one” — the bloc has jointly agreed on and implemented measures affecting everything from energy to banking.

    But enforcement is a matter for individual member countries. Some are on board with the program. Others, like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, overtly sympathize with Russia. And others, still, are conflicted — as when it emerged that the husband of hawkish Estonian premier Kaja Kallas owned a stake in a freight firm that still did business in Russia.

    Then there are countries like neutral Austria, with historical ties to the Soviet military-industrial complex that have left politicians and law enforcement with a huge blind spot.

    That’s important because, as independent researcher Kamil Galeev put it to POLITICO, Russia today still upholds an organizing principle dating back to the early Soviet era that civilian industry should “be able to switch 100 percent to military production should the need arise.”

    Justice delayed

    Despite evidence of widespread breaches, only a handful of sanctions cases are being pursued by European law enforcement. Among them, German prosecutors have secured the arrest of a businessman suspected of supplying precision lathes to two Russian companies that make sniper rifles.

    But the wheels of justice turn slowly: The arrest in August of Ulli S. — prosecutors, following German tradition, have not published his full name — relates to the initial imposition of Western sanctions over Russia’s occupation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014.

    The press had already cracked the case by the time the suspect appeared in court, naming DMG Mori — a Japanese-German joint venture — as the supplier. One customer was Kalashnikov, maker of the famed AK-47 rifle. The other was Promtekhnologia, which has been sanctioned by the U.S. and featured in POLITICO’s sniper bullets investigation. Promtekhnologia makes the Orsis sniper rifle promoted by action movie actor Steven Seagal — now a Russian citizen — and used by President Vladimir Putin’s men in Ukraine.  

    DMG Mori, formerly called Gildemeister, suspended sales to Russia after the full-scale invasion. But, because it has closed down its operations in the country, it says it is no longer able to keep control over its machines made there (although an internal probe did find that they were being used for civilian purposes). The German Federal Prosecutor did not respond to a request for comment.

    The real bad actors 

    It’s not just in stopping imports to Russia that sanctions are falling short of their stated intention.

    Vladimir Putin’s former wife, Lyudmila (left), and her new partner have splashed the cash on luxury property investments in Spain, Switzerland and France a POLITICO investigation found | Yuri Kochetkov/EPA

    Russians with close ties to Putin — and their money — continue to be more than welcome in Europe despite the death and destruction his regime has unleashed. His former wife, Lyudmila, and her new partner have splashed the cash on luxury property investments in Spain, Switzerland and France, as a POLITICO investigation found at the start of the year.

    And when the European Council — the intergovernmental branch of the EU — does sanction Russian business leaders suspected of aiding and abetting the Putin regime, it has often relied on slipshod evidence that makes the decisions easy to challenge in court, POLITICO has also found.

    Nearly 1,600 Western multinationals continue, meanwhile, to do business in Russia. Many that announced they would pull out have struggled to do so, as POLITICO discovered when it investigated Western liquor companies that said they had quit Russia — only to find that their booze was still freely available. And some companies that did stay, like Danone and Carlsberg, have been shaken down by Putin and his cronies — a case of Russian roulette, if ever there was one.

    With the EU apparently lacking the means, or the political will, to do more to economically isolate Russia, the bloc is sending its sanctions envoy, David O’Sullivan, on a mission to apply moral suasion to countries that are, as he diplomatically puts it, “not aligned” on sanctions.

    On the high-priority battlefield technology, Sullivan told POLITICO’s EU Confidential podcast last month that the EU has had “a limited success — but in an area which is absolutely critical to the defense of Ukraine.”

    More broadly, he said: “The sanctions are a sort of slow puncture of the Russian economy. Perhaps not the blowout that some people initially predicted, but … the air is escaping from the tire and sooner or later the vehicle is going to become impossible to drive.”

    To be fair, O’Sullivan isn’t overselling the efficacy of sanctions. And he may ultimately be proven right. 

    But he only will be vindicated if Western governments do a better job of holding their own businesses to account in stemming the flows of technology, equipment and spare parts that sustain Putin and his war of aggression.

    That will come down to whether they have the will to enforce their decisions. And the evidence so far is that they don’t.

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    Douglas Busvine

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  • Geert Wilders is the EU’s worst nightmare

    Geert Wilders is the EU’s worst nightmare

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    THE HAGUE — One line in Geert Wilders’ inflammatory pitch to Dutch voters will haunt Brussels more than any other: a referendum on leaving the EU. 

    Seven years after the British voted for Brexit, a so-called Nexit ballot was a core plank of the far-right leader’s ultimately successful offer in the Netherlands. 

    And while Wilders softened his anti-Islam rhetoric in recent weeks, there are no signs he wants to water down his Euroskepticism after his shock election victory

    Even if Dutch voters are not persuaded to follow the Brits out of the EU — polling suggests it’s unlikely — there’s every indication that a Wilders-led government in The Hague will still be a nightmare for Brussels.

    A seat for Wilders around the EU summit table would transform the dynamic, alongside other far-right and nationalist leaders already in post. Suddenly, policies ranging from climate action, to EU reform and weapons for Ukraine will be up for debate, and even reversal.

    Since the exit polls were announced, potential center-right partners have not ruled out forming a coalition with Wilders, who emerged as the clear winner. That’s despite the fact that for the past 10 years, he’s been kept out by centrists. 

    For his part, the 60-year-old veteran appears to be dead serious about taking power himself this time. 

    Ever since Mark Rutte’s replacement as VVD leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz, indicated early in the campaign that she could potentially enter coalition talks with Wilders, the far-right leader has worked hard to look more reasonable. He diluted some of his most strident positions, particularly on Islam — such as banning mosques — saying there are bigger priorities to fix. 

    On Wednesday night, with the results coming in, Wilders was more explicit: “I understand very well that parties do not want to be in a government with a party that wants unconstitutional measures,” he said. “We are not going to talk about mosques, Qurans and Islamic schools.”

    Even if Wilders is willing to drop his demand for an EU referendum in exchange for power, his victory will still send a shudder through the EU institutions. 

    And if centrist parties club together to keep Wilders out — again — there may be a price to pay with angry Dutch voters later on. 

    Brexit cheerleader Nigel Farage showed in the U.K. that you don’t need to be in power to be powerfully influential.

    Winds of change

    Migration was a dominant issue in the Dutch election. For EU politicians, it remains a pressing concern. As migrant numbers continue to rise, so too has support for far-right parties in many countries in Europe. In Italy last year, Giorgia Meloni won power for her Brothers of Italy. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally remains a potent force, in second place in the polls. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany has also surged to second place in recent months. 

    In his victory speech, Wilders vowed to tackle what he called the “asylum tsunami” hitting the Netherlands. 

    “The main reasons voters have supported Wilders in these elections is his anti-immigration agenda, followed by his stances on the cost of living crisis and his health care position,” said Sarah de Lange, politics professor at the University of Amsterdam. Mainstream parties “legitimized Wilders” by making immigration a key issue, she said. “Voters might have thought that if that is the issue at stake, why not vote for the original rather than the copy?”

    For the left, the bright spot in the Netherlands was a strong showing for a well-organized alliance between Labor and the Greens. Frans Timmermans, the former European Commission vice president, galvanized support behind him. But even that joint ticket could not get close to beating Wilders’ tally. 

    Next June, the 27 countries of the EU hold an election for the European Parliament. 

    On the same day voters choose their MEPs, Belgium is holding a general election. Far-right Flemish independence leader Tom Van Grieken, who is also eyeing up a major breakthrough, offered his congratulations to Wilders: “Parties like ours are on their way in the whole of Europe,” he said. 

    Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was celebrating, too: “The winds of change are here!”

    Pieter Haeck reported from Amsterdam and Tim Ross reported from London.

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    Tim Ross, Pieter Haeck, Eline Schaart and Jakob Hanke Vela

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  • Trump muddles up Turkish and Hungarian leaders

    Trump muddles up Turkish and Hungarian leaders

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    Former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to confuse the leaders of Turkey and Hungary in a campaign speech in New Hampshire on Monday.

    “There’s a man, Viktor Orbán, anybody ever hear of him?” Trump said, referring to the Hungarian prime minister.

    “He’s probably, like, one of the strongest leaders anywhere in the world. He’s the leader of Turkey,” the former president said. Turkey’s president is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

    Trump added that Orbán has a “front” with Russia. Neither Turkey nor Hungary has a border with Russia.

    Trump has previously praised Orbán, who opposes migration and LGBTQ rights, and refers to his governing style as an “illiberal democracy.” Trump hosted him at the White House in 2019.

    In turn, Orbán was the first European leader to endorse Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, and urged him to “keep fighting” after the former president was hit with a criminal indictment.

    “Come back, Mr President. Make America great again and bring us peace,” Orbán told a meeting of the U.S. Conservative Political Action Coalition earlier this year.

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    Seb Starcevic

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  • Putin to meet Xi in China this week

    Putin to meet Xi in China this week

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    Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing this week — a rare international visit by the Russian leader.

    During the October 17-18 visit to Beijing, Putin will attend a forum marking 10 years of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure program that has helped boost its influence worldwide. 

    Washington and Brussels have been eyeing with alarm the relationship between China and Russia, with Beijing refusing to condemn Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even as it has voiced support for the principle of territorial integrity. 

    Russia has increased its energy exports to China as it grapples with Western sanctions imposed as a response to the invasion of Ukraine. 

    EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged China during a three-day trip to the country that wrapped up this weekend to use its influence with Russia, particularly on the U.N. Security Council, to stop the war in the country. He also warned Beijing that “any direct military support to Russia … would be a serious concern for us.”

    The European Union is expected to have a summit with China before the end of the year. 

    This week’s Belt and Road Initiative Forum takes place against the background of a darkening economic picture for China, which has seen an economic slowdown, propelled in part by a property downturn. Representatives from more than 100 countries are expected to attend the forum in Beijing, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

    At the same time, Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for more than six weeks, raising questions about his whereabouts and safety.

    The visit to Beijing would mark Putin’s second international trip since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for the Russian leader’s arrest in March over the forced transport of children to Russia from Ukraine. Putin last week attended a summit of ex-Soviet nations in Kyrgyzstan. Neither Kyrgyzstan nor China is a party to the ICC. 

    CORRECTION: This story has been updated to indicated that the China trip would be Putin’s second international trip since the ICC issued its arrest warrant in March.

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    Suzanne Lynch

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  • Ukraine puts on brave face as West goes wobbly

    Ukraine puts on brave face as West goes wobbly

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    The West’s united front on Ukraine is showing more cracks than ever — and Kyiv has little choice but to grin and bear it.

    More than 500 days into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Republican lawmakers in Washington DC on Saturday derailed an effort to unleash a major tranche of aid for the war-torn country.

    Coming just nine days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Washington to plead for continued support, the blockage underscored a hardening of attitudes among congressional Republicans who want to end Washington’s assistance for Kyiv.

    At the same time as Republicans were voting ‘no’ on Capitol Hill, voters in Slovakia elected a pro-Russian prime minister, Robert Fico, who vows not to send a “single round” of ammunition to Ukraine, and looks set to team up with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbàn to oppose further European support for Kyiv. Poland, once the most dependable of Kyiv’s allies, made the shock announcement on September 20 that it would no longer send weapons.

    These warning signs don’t amount to a profound policy shift in Washington or Brussels. U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to stand by Ukraine despite the budget fiasco. And most European leaders remain staunchly supportive of Ukraine, with some €50 billion in continued support for the country due to be signed off in coming months, according to two EU diplomats who were granted anonymity to talk about the non-public deliberations.

    Asked to comment on the fact that the U.S. stopgap bill lacks any funding for Ukraine, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said: “The president has built a coalition of more than 50 countries to provide aid to support Ukraine … There is very strong international coalition behind Ukraine and if Putin thinks he can outlast us, he’s wrong.”

    Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, said he was “sure” the decision to block funding would be reconsidered. “We’ll continue to be on your side,” he told reporters in Kyiv Monday when asked how the U.S. budget shortfall would affect Ukraine.

    Ukrainian politicians — who’ve faced criticism from the United States and United Kingdom for appearing insufficiently “grateful” for Western aid — sounded similarly upbeat. “We’re working with both sides of the Congress to ensure it doesn’t repeat again, under any circumstances,” said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, appearing next to Borrell.

    ‘Words of gratitude’

    But despite these attempts to put a positive spin on the situation, open criticism of aid among senior Western politicians — coupled with Elon Musk’s online attacks against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — sends a chilling message to Kyiv.

    The message that the U.S. and Europe will stick with Kyiv — no matter what — is starting to ring hollow.

    Ukraine remains heavily dependent on Western support not just to fuel its battle against Russia, but also to keep its public administration ticking over. According to its projected budget for 2024, Ukraine expects to receive $42.8 billion from international donors in the coming year, a big chunk of which would come from the United States. In June, Ukraine’s finance minister, Serhiy Marchenko, told POLITICO that the U.S. should “step in and at least provide us mid-term relief.”

    At the same time as Republicans were voting ‘no’ on Capitol Hill, voters in Slovakia elected a pro-Russian prime minister, Robert Fico, who vows not to send a “single round” of ammunition to Ukraine | Janos Kummer/Getty Images

    Asked whether the holdup on Capitol Hill now leaves Kyiv with a budget shortfall, a spokesperson for Marchenko declined to comment.

    Europe is also worried about what to expect from Washington. While most EU countries agree on supporting Ukraine, aid for Kyiv is tied to a broader review of the EU’s long-term budget on which there is no agreement. And since all EU27 countries need to back the deal, it may prove difficult to pass by year-end, which is when the EU’s current support for Ukraine runs out.

    “There is not much political discussion on the financial support for Ukraine. That is not the difficult piece of the puzzle. But the puzzle overall is very hard,  that no one dares to predict anything,” said an EU diplomat who asked not to be named to discuss the confidential budget talks.

    Indeed, Hungary’s Orbán has already said he’s not prepared to finance Ukraine unless it reviews its treatment of Hungarian minorities living in the country. Although critics describe this stance as a tactical veto meant to unlock funds that Brussels is withholding from Budapest over a separate rule-of-law dispute, Orbán may use the election of his like-minded Slovakian peer to toughen his negotiating tactics.

    “Member states remain broadly supportive of aid for Ukraine,” said a second EU diplomat. “Of course the big elephant in the room is, ‘What if this is the precursor to the U.S. just abandoning Ukraine?’ While it’s in the back of everyone’s minds, I just don’t think that’s going to happen now or anytime soon.”

    Amid uncertainty about whether Ukraine will be able to finance its budget and keep its war effort going, Ukrainian officials are trying hard to put on a brave face and appear thankful. Speaking to POLITICO last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal insisted on his “gratitude” toward Poland, an ally that has been locked in a dispute with Kyiv over grain exports, and has now vowed not to send any more weapons.

    “I would like to express the words of gratitude to the Polish nation and all Polish families for the support that they have given and have provided to Ukrainian refugees,” he said.

    Gregorio Sorgi and Suzanne Lynch contributed reporting in Brussels and Eun Kim in Washington DC.

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    Nicholas Vinocur, Paola Tamma and Veronika Melkozerova

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  • Hungary’s Orbán calls for less climate panic, more babies

    Hungary’s Orbán calls for less climate panic, more babies

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    BUDAPEST — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has accused other European leaders of fearmongering over the threat of climate change at the expense of ignoring the problem of falling birth rates. 

    “Europe is acting out of fear and fear makes us defeatist,” said the right-wing leader on Thursday. “We say there’s no future, and as such, this is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.” 

    Hungary is one of a number of Central and Eastern European countries that are trying to reverse falling birth rates. All countries across the European Union have fewer than the 2.1 children per woman needed to keep the population stable without migration.

    This aging population raises thorny questions for governments around how to fund the welfare state as the number of older people increases and the proportion of people of working ages falls.

    In his address at the two-day Budapest Demographic Summit, a pro-family conference organized by the Hungarian government, Orbán said that “Western elites” were ignoring the question of demographics, and were instead busy with “carbon quotas.”

    “They require people to live in fear of an approaching Armageddon,” he said.

    Orbán’s government has made birth rates a key political priority, investing around 5 percent of the country’s GDP into family-creation policies like tax breaks and subsidized loans for new houses. Hungary’s birth rate is no longer the lowest in the EU, where it was a decade ago, instead hovering a little above the bloc’s average.

    On Thursday, the Hungarian leader ramped up these policies, announcing that the government would lower the threshold for women to receive a lifetime exemption from paying tax from four children to three.

    Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who attended the summit in Budapest, praised Hungary’s efforts to encourage families to have more children and warned that demographic change is an existential risk for her country. 

    “In our view, demography is not just another of the main issues of our nation. It is the issue on which our nation’s future depends,” she said. “We need the courage to say that demographers’ projections for the future are very worrying.”

    Europe has registered birth rates below replacement level for decades, but it’s an issue that has been gaining more attention, especially in Silicon Valley. Elon Musk recently cited Orbán’s efforts approvingly. 

    Katalin Novák, Hungary’s president and the organizer of the conference, echoed Orbán’s messaging on misguided European priorities. She said that while “alarm bells are ringing about climate change, little attention is being paid to the real problem.

    “The demographic winter is turning into an Ice Age,” she said.

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    Carlo Martuscelli

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