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In Brief:
- Bruce Blakeman is exploring a run for New York governor, drawing attention from business and political communities.
- He focuses on economy and community safety while touring upstate GOP meetings to build recognition.
- Blakeman faces potential primary competition from Congresswoman Elise Stefanik and the influence of NYS GOP leadership.
- Social media and alliances with President Trump could shape voter engagement and campaign momentum.
- Long Island GOP county leaders may play a crucial role in the state convention and nomination process.
There is not a gathering of business leaders this season where the question is not quietly posed: “What do you think of Bruce Blakeman’s chances of becoming governor?”
The potential of a Long Islander assuming the highest executive office in the State of New York is not an idle scenario and for the business community there needs to be an appreciation that such a victory would have the potential of strategically altering the economic climate of New York at a time when progressive socialism has come into vogue.
County Executive Blakeman has likely looked at previous campaigns for the purpose of determining what works and what doesn’t. Over the decades, others from the bi-county region have sought to achieve statewide office over the years with mixed results. Tom DiNapoli, with his political roots in Great Neck, remains the much-respected state comptroller. Alfonse D’Amato of Island Park served three terms in the U.S. Senate, winning on the Republican line in what remains a state with far higher Democratic enrollment.
A political veteran, one suspects that Blakeman is aware and wary of the political odds but Senator D’Amato was supposed to be easily beaten in a GOP primary by then incumbent Jacob Javits. He wasn’t. And pundits then guaranteed that D’Amato would lose in November of 1980 to his Democratic opponent, Liz Holtzman. He wasn’t. Accordingly, every candidate looks at the D’Amato odds and calculates their own.
Blakeman is no stranger to New York north of the Harlem River. He has sought statewide office before. Then what makes his exploratory campaign unique? And how would he overcome NYS GOP Chairman Ed Cox who insists he wants upstate Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as the party’s candidate to face Governor Hochul.
For starters, the traditional political landscape is literally unrecognizable. There is fierce polarization that is nothing less than historic. New York City’s stunning turn to Zohran Mamdani will become a lightning rod in any 2026 campaign. Within these realities Blakeman has engaged in an exploratory road show throughout upstate New York, recognizing that many upstate Republicans know Stefanik but don’t know him. As he tours, he is addressing the economy and community safety, issues that resonate anywhere within the Empire State.
Blakeman is also a close and public ally of President Trump as is Blakeman’s potential primary opponent. However, the president recently publicly chastised Stefanik following a comment she made regarding Mamdani so his endorsement in a primary, while crucial, remains a mystery.
Social media has emerged as a powerful political force in identifying a political base of support. It is capable of energizing supporters to be vocal and engaged, turning these online primary voters into advocates and influencers. It hasn’t been lost on Blakeman who has been posting daily as he visits upstate GOP meetings.
Meanwhile, Long Island remains a Republican bastion with county chairmen, Joseph Cairo in Nassau and Jesse Garcia in Suffolk, masters of their realm. Together, they have the means to create a voting block at the New York State Republican convention that will be crucial for the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee. If Cox is seeking a coronation of Congresswoman Stefanik, he will have some interesting conversations with these two gentlemen.
In the end, the odds of County Executive Blakeman becoming the Republican nominee for governor is dependent on so many variables, it is impossible to make book, but his presence is making for fascinating political dynamics in a state that has repeatedly proven the pundits wrong.
Josh Liebman is partner in the law firm Rosenberg Calica Birney Liebman & Ross, LLP in Garden City.
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