A pilot performs a walkaround before a United Airlines flight
Leslie Josephs/CNBC
U.S. passenger airlines have added nearly 194,000 jobs since 2021 as companies went on a hiring spree after spending months in a pandemic slump, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Now the industry is cooling its hiring.
Airlines are close to their staffing needs but the slowdown is also coming in part because they’re facing a slew of challenges.
Annual pay for a three-year first officer on midsized equipment at U.S. airlines averaged $170,586 in March, up from $135,896 in 2019, according to Kit Darby, an aviation consultant who specializes in pilot pay.
Since 2019, costs at U.S. carriers have climbed by double-digit percentages. Stripping out fuel and net interest expenses, they’ll be up about 20% at American Airlines this year and around 28% higher at both United Airlines and Delta Air Lines from 2019, according to Raymond James airline analyst Savanthi Syth.
It is more pronounced at low-cost airlines. Southwest Airlines‘ costs will likely be up 32%, JetBlue Airways‘ up nearly 35% and Spirit Airlines will see a rise of almost 39% over the same period, estimated Syth, whose data is adjusted for flight length.
Friday’s U.S. jobs report showed air transportation employment in August roughly in line with July’s.
But there have been pullbacks. In the most severe case, Spirit Airlines furloughed 186 pilots this month, their union said Sunday, as the carrier’s losses have grown in the wake of a failed acquisition by JetBlue Airways, a Pratt & Whitneyengine recall and an oversupplied U.S. market. Last year, even before the merger fell apart, it offered staff buyouts.
Other airlines are easing hiring or finding other ways to cut costs.
Frontier Airlines is still hiring pilots but said it will offer voluntary leaves of absence in September and October, when demand generally dips after the summer holidays but before Thanksgiving and winter breaks. A spokeswoman for the carrier said it offers those leaves “periodically” for “when our staffing levels exceed our planned flight schedules.”
Southwest Airlines expects to end the year with 2,000 fewer employees compared with 2023 and earlier this year said it would halt hiring classes for work groups including pilots and flight attendants. CFO Tammy Romo said on an earnings call in July that the company’s headcount would likely be down again in 2025 as attrition levels exceed the Dallas-based carrier’s “controlled hiring levels.”
United Airlines, which paused pilot hiring in May and June, citing late-arriving planes from Boeing, said it plans to add 10,000 people this year, down from 15,000 in each 2022 and 2023. It plans to hire 1,600 pilots, down from more than 2,300 last year.
It’s a departure from the previous years when airlines couldn’t hire employees fast enough. U.S. airlines are usually adding pilots constantly since they are required to retire at age 65 by federal law.
Airlines shed tens of thousands of employees in 2020 to try to stem record losses. Packages of more than $50 billion in taxpayer aid that were passed to get the industry through its worst-ever crisis prohibited layoffs, but many employees took carriers up on their repeated offers of buyouts and voluntary leaves.
Then, travel demand snapped back faster than expected, climbing in earnest in 2022 and leaving airlines without experienced employees like customer service agents. It also led to the worst pilot shortage in recent memory.
In response, companies — especially regional carriers — offered big bonuses to attract pilots.
But times have changed. Even air freight giants were competing for pilots in recent years but demand has waned as FedEx and UPS look to cut costs.
American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said in an investor presentation in March that the carrier added about 2,300 pilots last year and that it expects to hire about 1,300 this year.
“We will be hiring for the foreseeable future at levels like that,” he said at the time.
Despite the lower targets, students continue to fill classrooms and cockpits to train and build up hours to become pilots, said Ken Byrnes, chairman of the flight department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
“Demand for travel is still there,” he said. “I don’t see a long-term slowdown.”
As consumers watch their wallets, companies have felt pressure from investors to do the same. Executives have sought to show shareholders that they’re adjusting to consumer demand as it returns to typical patterns or even softens, as well as aggressively countering higher expenses.
Airlines, automakers, media companies and package giant UPS are all digesting new labor contracts that gave raises to tens of thousands of workers and drove costs higher.
Companies in years past could get away with passing on higher costs to customers who were willing to splurge on everything from new appliances to beach vacations. But businesses’ pricing power has waned, so executives are looking for other ways to manage the budget â or squeeze out more profits, said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY.
“You are in an environment where cost fatigue is very much part of the equation for consumers and business leaders,” Daco said. “The cost of most everything is much higher than it was before the pandemic, whether it’s goods, inputs, equipment, labor, even interest rates.”
There are some exceptions to the recent cost-cutting wave: Walmart, for example, said last month that it would build or convert more than 150 stores over the next five years, along with a more than $9 billion investment to modernize many of its current stores.
And some companies, such as banks, already made deep cuts. Five of the largest banks, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, together eliminated more than 20,000 jobs in 2023. Now, they’re awaiting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that would free up cash for pent-up mergers and acquisitions.
But cost reductions unveiled in even just the first few weeks of the year amount to tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars. In January, U.S. companies announced 82,307 job cuts, more than double the number in December, while still down 20% from a year ago, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
And the tightening of months prior is already showing up in financial reports.
So far this earnings season, results have indicated that companies have focused on driving profits higher without the tailwind of big price increases and sales growth.
As of mid-February, more than three-quarters of the S&P 500 had reported fourth-quarter results, with far more earnings beats than revenue beats. The quarter’s earnings, measured by a composite of S&P 500 companies, are on pace to rise nearly 10%. Revenues, however, are up a more modest 3.4%.
And the layoffs haven’t been contained to tech. UPS said it was axing 12,000 jobs, saving the company $1 billion, CEO Carol Tome said late last month, citing softer demand. Many of the largest retail, media and entertainment companies have also announced workforce reductions, in addition to other cuts.
Warner Bros. Discovery has slashed content spending and headcount as part of $4 billion in total cost savings from the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia. Disney initially promised $5.5 billion in cost reductions in 2023, fueled by 7,000 layoffs. The company has since increased its savings promise to $7.5 billion, and executives suggested in its Feb. 7 quarterly earnings report that it may exceed that target.
JetBlue Airways, which hasn’t posted an annual profit since before the pandemic, is deferring about $2.5 billion in capital expenditures on new Airbus planes to the end of the decade, culling unprofitable routes and redeploying aircraft in addition to the worker buyouts.
Some cuts are even making their way to the front of the cabin. United Airlines, which also posted a profit in 2023, at the start of this year said it would serve first-class meals only on flights more than 900 miles, up from 800 miles previously. “On flights that are 301 to 900 miles, United First customers can expect an offering from the premium snack basket,” according to an internal post.
Several of the country’s largest automakers, such as General Motors and Ford Motor, have lowered spending by billions of dollars through reduced or delayed investments on all-electric vehicles. The U.S.-based companies as well as others, such as Netherlands-based Stellantis, have recently reduced headcount and payroll through voluntary buyouts or layoffs.
Even Chipotle, which reported more foot traffic and sales at its restaurants in the most recently reported quarter, is chasing higher productivity by testing an avocado-scooping robot called the Autocado that shortens the time it takes to make guacamole. It’s also testing another robot that can put together burrito bowls and salads. The robots, if expanded to other stores, could help cut costs by minimizing food waste or reducing the number of workers needed for those tasks.
Industry experts have chalked up some recent cuts to companies catching their breath â and taking a hard look at how they operate â after an unusual four-year stretch caused by the pandemic and its fallout.
EY’s Daco said the past few years have been marked by a mismatch in supply and demand when it comes to goods, services and even workers.
Customers went on shopping sprees, fueled by government stimulus and less experience-related spending. Airlines saw demand disappear and then skyrocket. Companies furloughed workers in the early pandemic and then struggled to fill jobs.
He said he expects companies this year to “search for an equilibrium.”
“You’re seeing a rebalancing happening in the labor markets, in the capital markets,” he said. “And that rebalancing is still going to play out and gradually lead to a more sustainable environment of lower inflation and lower interest rates, and perhaps a little bit slower growth.”
The auto industry, for example, faced a supply issue during much of the Covid pandemic but is now facing a potential demand problem. Inventories of new vehicles are rising â surpassing 2.5 million units and 71 days’ supply toward the end of 2023, up 57% year over year, according to Cox Automotive â forcing automakers to extend more discounts in an effort to move cars and trucks off dealer lots.
Automakers have also been contending with slower-than-expected adoption of EVs.
David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch Ratings, said companies are “feeling a bit heavy as sales growth moderates and maybe even declines.”
Cost cuts at UPS, Hasbro and Levi all followed sales declines in the most recent fiscal quarter. Macy’s, which reports earnings later this month, has said it expects same-store sales to drop, and there’s early evidence that may come to bear: Consumers pulled back on spending in January, with retail sales falling 0.8%, more than economists expected, according to the latest federal data.
Most major retailers, including Walmart, Target and Home Depot, will report earnings in the coming weeks.
Credit ratings agency Fitch said it doesn’t expect the U.S. economy to tip into recession, but it does anticipate a continued pullback in discretionary spending.
“Part of companies’ decision to lower their expense structure is in line with their views that 2024 may not be a fantastic year from a top-line-growth standpoint,” Silverman said.
Plus, he added, companies have had to find cash to fund investments in newer technology such as infrastructure that supports e-commerce, a resilient supply chain or investments in artificial intelligence.
Companies may have another reason to cut costs now, too. As they see other companies shrinking the size of their workforces or budgets, there’s safety in numbers.
Or as Silverman noted, “layoffs beget layoffs.”
“As companies have started to announce them it becomes normalized,” he said. “There’s less of a stigma.”
Even with rolling layoffs, the labor market remains strong, which may help explain why Wall Street has by and large rewarded those companies that have found areas to save and returned profits to shareholders.
Shares of Meta, for example, almost tripled in price in 2023 in that “year of efficiency,” making the stock the second-best gainer in the S&P 500, behind only Nvidia. After laying off more than 20,000 workers in 2023, Meta on Feb. 2 announced its first-ever dividend and said it expanded its share buyback authorization by $50 billion.
UPS, fresh from job cuts, said it would raise its quarterly dividend by a penny.
Overall, dividends paid by companies in the S&P 500 rose 5.05% last year, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and he estimated they will likely increase nearly 5.3% this year.
â CNBC’s Michael Wayland, Alex Sherman, Robert Hum, Amelia Lucas and Jonathan Vanian contributed to this story.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold a number of stocks last quarter during the volatile market, according to a new regulatory filing. The Omaha-based conglomerate dumped its remaining $780 million stake in General Motors , a stock Berkshire has been trimming for a few quarters. Berkshire also sold its $650 million stake in materials company Celanese , while exiting smaller positions in United Parcel Service , Johnson & Johnson , Mondelez International and Procter & Gamble. Meanwhile, Berkshire trimmed its stakes in Amazon and Aon slightly, the filing showed. These holdings were still worth more than $1 billion each at the end of September, however. The conglomerate was also downsizing its top bets HP and Chevron . Some of these moves, especially ones involving smaller positions, could have been done by Buffett’s investing lieutenants Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, who each manage about $15 billion for Berkshire. It was previously revealed that Berkshire was a net seller of publicly traded stocks in the third quarter, buying $1.7 billion worth of equities while selling nearly $7 billion. The S & P 500 shed more than 3% last quarter before bouncing back this month. Besides these moves, the “Oracle of Omaha” kept his top holdings unchanged. Apple continued to be the conglomerate’s biggest bet by far, with a value north of $156 billion. Bank of America, American Express, Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz and Moody’s were also Berkshire’s longtime holdings. Buffett has been in a defensive mode as of late. Not only was he selling stocks, he was also hoarding a record level of cash. Berkshire’s cash pile, mainly parked in short-term Treasury bills, hit $157.2 billion at the end of September thanks to a surge in bond yields. Berkshire has also asked the SEC to keep the details of one or more of its stock holdings confidential.
An American Airlines 787 is loaded with cargo at Philadelphia International Airport.
Leslie Josephs/CNBC
More companies are warning that a surge in the cost of fuel and employee pay hikes will eat into profits this quarter.
Companies from aerospace manufacturers to package delivery giant UPS are digesting big new labor deals. Meanwhile, unions from the auto industry to Hollywood are pushing for better compensation. Airlines, whose biggest expenses are jet fuel and labor, are getting hit particularly hard.
Delta Air Lines on Thursday cut its adjusted earnings forecast for the third quarter to between $1.85 and $2.05 a share, down from an earlier forecast of $2.20 to $2.50. Delta said it is paying more for fuel than it expected but said maintenance costs were also more than it anticipated.
U.S. jet fuel at major airports averaged $3.42 a gallon as of Tuesday, up 38% from two months ago, according to Airlines for America, an industry group.
The company expects to recognize a $230 million expense for that new contract, which includes immediate 21% raises for pilots, and compensation increasing more than 46% over the duration of the four-year contract, including 401(k) contributions.
Elsewhere, labor unions from Detroit to Hollywood have pushed hard for raises, better benefits and schedules in new contracts. UPS and the Teamsters union representing about 340,000 workers at the package carrier in July reached a new labor deal that includes raises for both full- and part-time workers, and narrowly avoided a potential strike.
UPS workers ratified the agreement ratified last month. By the end of the five-year contract, a driver could make $170,000 in pay and benefits, the company said.
Earlier this week, the delivery giant outlined the costs associated with the deal and said it the expenses from it will increase at 3.3% compound annual growth rate over the next five years.
“Year one costs more than we originally forecast,” said Brian Newman, the company’s CFO, said on an investor call this week. He said it will cost $500 million more in the back half of 2023 than expected, he said.
As of midday Thursday, the United Auto Workers and Detroit automakers appeared far apart on labor talks for new labor deals, setting up “likely” strategic strikes at the companies after an 11:59 p.m. ET Thursday deadline, UAW President Shawn Fain said Wednesday night. The union has sought more than 30% hourly pay increases, a reduced 32-hour work week, and other improvements.
Other unions are also seeking higher compensation. The Hollywood writers and actors strikes began in May and mid-July, respectively, with members demanding better pay to match changing industry dynamics in the entertainment-streaming era.
American Airlines offered flight attendants 11% pay increases the date a new contract starts, and 2% raises after that. But the Association of Professional Flight Attendants said the union wants 35% increases at the start of a new deal, followed by 6% annual raises.
Unions have complained that workers didn’t get raises during high inflation in recent years since the Covid pandemic derailed talks.
Strong travel demand has helped the largest carriers more than cover their higher expenses. But some carriers are seeking cracks in sales just as a slower travel period after summer begins. Spirit Airlines on Wednesday said it expects a deeper loss than previously forecast and lower revenue.
Frontier Airlines warned Wednesday that “in recent weeks, sales have been trending below historical seasonality patterns,” and forecast an adjusted loss for the quarter.
– CNBC’s Michael Wayland and Gabriel Cortes contributed to this article.
UAW President Shawn Fain chairs the 2023 Special Elections Collective Bargaining Convention in Detroit, March 27, 2023.
Rebecca Cook | Reuters
United Auto Workers (UAW) President Shawn Fain said on Tuesday the union was seeking ambitious benefit increases in contract talks with the Detroit Three automakers, including double-digit pay rises and defined-benefit pensions for all workers.
The UAW presented its economic demands to Chrysler-parent Stellantis on Tuesday and will make presentations to General Motors (GM) Wednesday and Ford Thursday ahead of the Sept. 14 expiration of the current four-year contracts, Fain said.
They include proposing to make all temporary workers at the U.S. automakers permanent, placing new strict limits on the use of temporary workers and increasing paid time off.
Fain also wants increases in pension benefits for current retirees and to ensure all workers get defined-benefit pensions.
The union leader, in Facebook Live remarks, called the demands “the most audacious and ambitious list of proposals they’ve seen in decades.”
Fain said the CEOs of the Detroit Three saw their pay rise by 40% on average over the last four years.
He singled out GM CEO Mary Barra, who received $29 million of compensation in 2022, and said it would take an entry level worker at a GM joint venture battery plant 16 years to earn as much as she made in a week.
Fain listed numerous demands, including restoring retiree health care benefits and cost of living adjustments. He also said the UAW was proposing to have the right to strike over plant closures and to eliminate the two-tier wage system under which new hires earn 25% or more less than veteran employees.
He noted the Teamsters recently won an end to two-tiered wages in a new contract with UPS. “It’s wrong to make any worker a second class-worker. We can’t allow it any longer,” Fain said of the demand for the same at the Detroit Three.
Stellantis said it had a “very productive meeting” with Fain and the bargaining committee and would review the union requests to understand how they aligned with company proposals and where common ground could be found.
“We are not seeking a concessionary agreement,” Stellantis said.
GM said it would review the demands once they were received from the UAW on Wednesday.
Ford said it looked “forward to working with the UAW on creative solutions during this time when our dramatically changing industry needs a skilled and competitive workforce more than ever.”
Fain also said the Detroit Three need to pay better wages for workers at battery joint venture plants and praised Democratic senators last week for urging the companies to include those workers under the master agreements.
Unlike other bank failures, including Silicon Valley Bank’s recent collapse, First Republic’s troubles have largely stemmed from its inability to save itself, even with a multi-billion dollar lifeline from other major banks, he explained.
“There’s one big difference between now and 2008: This time there is no systemic contagion,” Cramer said. “It’s a miserable moment for First Republic — once a bank beloved by the rich and famous — but it’s an all-clear event for everyone else.”
Outside of First Republic, which saw its stock tumble over 49% on Tuesday, there were some other big losers on the day. UPS dropped nearly 10% on a disappointing earnings report, while life science and medical diagnostics company Danaher fell 8% and hit a 52-week low.
“While all three stocks jumped in after-hours trading, it might not matter, though, to tomorrow’s action, given the obsessive focus on this broken, darn bank,” Cramer said.
In response, a First Republic spokesperson told CNBC: “We remain fully committed to serving our communities, and we are grateful for the ongoing support of our clients and colleagues. Despite the uncertainty of the past two months, and while average account sizes have decreased, we have retained over 97% of client relationships that banked with us at the start of the first quarter.”
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Traders wearing masks arrive before the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Wall Street in New York City.
Johannes Eisele | AFP | Getty Images
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell on Tuesday.
First Republic Bank — The San Francisco-based regional bank plunged after it said Monday that deposits fell by 40% to $104.5 billion during the first quarter, which came out worse than Wall Street’s expectations. First Republic said that its deposit flows have since stabilized. The stock was down nearly 22% in early morning trading and has declined by 86.6% so far this year. On Tuesday, Janney downgraded First Republic to sell from neutral and lowered its price target on the stock to $8 from $10, implying a 50% downside from Monday’s closing price.
related investing news
UPS — UPS shares fell 1.6%after the shipping giant reported quarterly results that missed analyst expectations. The company earned an adjusted $2.20 per share on revenue of $22.93 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $23.01 billion, according to Refinitiv.
3M — The industrial stock added 1.3% before the opening bell. 3M reported $1.97 in earnings per share, higher than analysts expectations of $1.58 from FactSet. The Minnesota-based company announced it would cut about 6,000 positions globally in efforts to focus on high-growth markets such as automotive electrification and home improvement, while prioritizing emerging growth areas such as climate technology and semiconductors.
McDonald’s — Shares advanced less than 1% after the company beat Wall Street expectations for the first quarter. The company reported $2.63 in adjusted earnings per share on $5.9 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected $2.33 in per-share earnings and $5.59 billion in revenue. The stock was recently up 9.8%.
General Motors — Shares gained 2.1% after General Motors raised its key guidance for 2023 and reported first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line forecasts. The company reported $39.99 billion in revenue, higher than $38.96 billion according to Refinitiv data. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.21 per share, above the consensus estimate of $1.73. General Motors and Samsung SDI are also expected to announce as early as Tuesday that they plan to build a joint battery manufacturing plant in the U.S.
JetBlue — The stock popped more than 2.3% in the premarket after the airline forecasted a “solidly profitable” second quarter due to strong travel demand. For the first quarter, JetBlue posted a 34 cents loss, less than the 39 cents expected, per Refinitiv.
Packaging Corp of America — Shares fell 6.8% after the company reported an adjusted profit per share of $2.20, which came in below a StreetAccount forecast of $2.27 per share. The company’s second-quarter guidance also missed expectations.
Novartis — Shares of the pharmaceutical company added more than 3% after it raised its full-year earnings outlook, saying it expects sales to grow by mid-single digits. Novartis reported earnings per share of $1.71 on $12.95 billion in revenue, topping analysts’ expectations of $1.54 per share on $12.52 billion in revenue.
PepsiCo — Shares of the beverage and snacks giant climbed nearly 1.6% in premarket trading after it posted earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations. PepsiCo also raised its outlook on the full year. The company said first-quarter revenue totaled $17.85 billion, surpassing the $17.22 billion consensus estimate of analysts polled by Refinitiv. PepsiCo reported earnings per share of $1.50, topping analysts’ expectations of $1.39.
— CNBC’s un Li, YAlex Harring, Michelle Fox Theobald and Tanaya Macheel contributed reporting.
Bloated warehouse inventories are an expensive pressure eating away at the bottom line of many companies, and for many, the excess supply and associated costs of storage won’t abate this year, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey.
Just over one-third (36%) said they expect inventories to return to normal in the second half of this year, with an equal percentage expecting the gluts to last into 2024 — 21% saying a return to normal can occur in the first half of the year, and another 15% expecting normal activity by the first half of 2024. But uncertainty about inventory management is significant, with almost one-quarter (23%) of supply chain managers saying they are not sure when gluts will be worked off.
“We don’t expect significant decreases in inventory levels within our network in 2023,” said Paul Harris, vice president of operations for WarehouseQuote. “Several of our manufacturing clients are experiencing dead/bloated inventory challenges due to over-ordering in the container grid-lock from prior quarters. A majority have elected to keep the inventory on hand and are opposed to liquidating.
A total of 90 logistics managers representing the American Apparel and Footwear Association, ITS Logistics, WarehouseQuote, and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, or CSCMP, participated in the survey between March 3-21 to provide information on their current inventories and the biggest inflationary pressures they are facing, and often passing on to the consumer.
What’s sitting in warehouses, and what companies are doing about it
Logistics experts tell CNBC that 20% of their excess inventory sitting in warehouses is not seasonable in product nature. Slightly more than half of survey participants said they would keep the items in warehouses. But a little over one-quarter (27%) said they are selling on the secondary market because inventories impact a company’s bottom line through elevated storage prices.
Harris told CNBC many clients with perishable goods are selling them on secondary markets to avoid destroying products. “However, if asecondary market is not an option, they are forced to destroy the product,” he said. “If it’s a consumable, they are donating the goods to take tax deductions.”
Investors are worried about the earnings and margin trends and expect Wall Street to revise estimates lower. The supply chain pressures will be among the factors that weigh on quarterly numbers.
“Inventory carrying costs continue to rise, driven by inflationary pressures and late shipments,” said Mark Baxa, CEO of CSCMP. “This means that with every day that passes, three things are happening … growing sales risk, margin pressure, and D&O [deteriorated and/or obsolete].”
Almost half surveyed said the biggest inflationary pressures they are paying are warehouse costs, followed by the “other” category, which includes rent and labor.
ITS Logistics told CNBC that many clients across industries have been using ocean containers, rail containers and 53-foot trailers for storage because distribution centers were full.
“These charges will start materializing in Q2 or Q3 financial results,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics.
The survey found 50% of respondents saying the average length of time they are using ocean containers for storage is over four months.
“We are seeing similar trends in our data and ecosystem,” Brashier said.
More inflation costs going to the consumer
Traditionally, warehousing costs and the associated labor costs are passed on to the consumer, increasing or sustaining the price of a product. Nearly half (44%) of survey respondents said they are passing on at least half of their increased costs, if not more, to consumers.
“It’s clear that supply chain challenges and all their associated costs continue to stir inflationary pressures,” said Stephen Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association. “Given ongoing inventory concerns and the fragile nature of our logistics system, there are other pressures and uncertainty.”
His group is calling for West Coast port labor negotiations to be quickly finalized and for the government to “aggressively remove other cost pressures,” a reference to Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, which he said continue to make supply chains more expensive.
Manufacturing orders and the economic outlook
Recent data on manufacturing has shown a deterioration in the economy, with the ISM Manufacturing index in contraction level based on March data released this week. The U.S. services sector slipped closer to contraction in March, according to the ISM Services Index, with sharp declines in new orders, exports and price.
Looking at the health of manufacturing orders for the next three months, 40% of logistics managers surveyed said they are not cutting orders, while a little under one-fifth (18%) said they are cutting orders by 30%.
Inventory levels and consumer consumption are two factors influencing manufacturing orders.
These orders help gauge China GDP as it reopens from its strict Covid protocols, since the country relies on manufacturing and trade for its economic growth.
FreightWaves SONAR intelligence shows a slight uptick in ocean freight orders and recovery from the massive drop ahead of Lunar New Year, but the longer trend line remains a decrease in ocean bookings.
The inventory glut is affecting trucking logistics in multiple ways. Not only are trucks moving fewer containers from the ports, they are also moving less from the warehouses to the retail stores. Data from Motive, which tracks trucking visits to North American distribution facilities for the top five retailers by volume, shows a drop in truck visits from warehouses.
“The decline in visits to retail warehouses indicates weakness in consumer demand, but surprisingly may also be a sign of recovery in the supply chain,” said Shoaib Makani, founder and CEO of Motive. “With lead times to replenish inventory reduced from 2021 and 2022 highs, retailers are burning off existing inventories with the confidence that they will be able to replenish quickly.”
Even with orders increasing, the inventory headwinds are a source of concern for logistics experts.
“This survey confirms that we remain in an era of serious supply chain cost-to-serve challenges,” Baxa said. “Warehousing costs are contributing to these challenges that shippers are facing today and on the road ahead.”
FreightWaves and ITS Logistics are CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data providers.
As the likelihood of a hard landing this year rises, Barclays says investors should seek quality stocks that are not overly expensive. Large-cap tech stocks have been outperforming the market in 2023, with the S & P 500’s tech sector up more than 16%. However, Venu Krishna, Barclays’ head of U.S. equity strategy, warned against following this trend, citing elevated valuations, as well as inflation and interest rate risks. “Rather than chasing yet another crowded trade that is vulnerable to the next unwind, we recommend seeking safe haven among quality stocks at less demanding valuations,” Krishna wrote in a report on Monday. With the growing market uncertainty in mind, Barclays recommended a basket of quality stocks trading at lower valuations as a way to position for the growing risk of an economic downturn this year. Take a look at some of the names below: Health-care giant Johnson & Johnson made Barclays’ list. Shares have fallen 13% in 2023. The stock is one of eight names in the S & P 500 to have raised annual dividends consistently over the past 60 years. Barclays also highlighted Merck as a quality name that’s cheap. The pharmaceutical company is a notable winner in the Dow since the Federal Reserve began its latest rate-hike cycle . Shares are down more than 3% this year. About 7 out of 10 analysts covering Merck rate it a buy or are overweight on the stock, according to FactSet. They see upside of nearly 13%. Industrial names United Postal Service and 3M were also chosen as safe picks for a potential hard landing. UPS shares are up more than 7% in 2023, and the stock is a notable dividend increaser among the S & P 500 . Meanwhile, 3M is down more than 15% this year. Analysts see upside of 14% from here, according to FactSet. Several tech stocks made the list, including Microsoft and Accenture . Microsoft shares have gained 15% in 2023. More than 8 out of 10 analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, according to FactSet. The tech giant’s shares have been boosted by the recent boom in artificial intelligence . Accenture was a top performer in the prior trading week after the company announced it would lay off about 2.5% of its workforce , or 19,000 jobs. Shares are up more than 2% in 2023, and analysts see upside of more than 13%, according to FactSet. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
An Optoro warehouse in Tennessee that handles returns for retailers.
Source: Matt Adams | Optoro
As the markets prepare for the latest consumer price index data to be released on Tuesday, logistics managers are warning of a persistent source of inflation in the supply chain and saying consumers should be ready for the effect it will have on their wallets.
While many sources of supply chain inflation that stoked higher goods prices have come down sharply — including ocean freight rates and transportation fuels — bloated inventories due to a lack of consumer demand are sustaining upward pressure on warehouse rates.
“In 2022, we saw rate levels for international air and ocean and domestic trucking fall back down to earth,” said Brian Bourke, global chief commercial officer at SEKO Logistics. “But inflationary pressures remain where demand outpaces supply in 2023, including in warehousing through most of the United States, domestic parcel and labor.”
One reason for the imbalance between warehouse supply and demand is the lack of new facilities coming into the market.
“National warehousing capacity remains low and will remain tight for the foreseeable future as U.S. industrial construction starts have fallen considerably year-over-year due to rising interest rates,” said Chris Huwaldt, vice president of solutions at WarehouseQuote.
Consumer prices have come down sharply as goods inflation that surged during the pandemic has cooled. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed confidence after the most recent Fed meeting that disinflation “has begun.” December’s CPI was the smallest year-over-year increase since October 2021, at6.5% on an annual basis, down from a 9.1% peak in June 2022.
The Fed is now more focused on services inflation, in particular labor prices, as it expects the pressure in goods inflation to continue a downward trend. But the logistics issues suggest there will be some elements of sticky inflation on the goods side of the equation.
“The market is starting to sense that the very comforting disinflation story is more complex than we would like it to be,” Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday morning. “The comforting story was simple: Goods disinflation continues and service inflation comes down, that wonderful concept that Chair Powell calls core services, ex-housing, comes down and, lo and behold, we don’t have an inflation problem. Now we’re starting to see certain goods reverse this inflationary process so there’s more uncertainty about inflation.”
Some shippers are holding their products in containers on chassis because of full warehouses and distribution centers, but this means they’re incurring charges which are passed on to the consumer. Shippers are given an allotted amount of free time during which they are not charged for holding a container, but once those days expire, they start to be charged per diem charges (i.e., late container charges that are charged for containers out of port).
Containers left on chassis create two costly problems, said Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage and intermodal for ITS Logistics. It prevents those chassis from being used to move newly arriving containers, putting additional stress on chassis pools throughout the U.S., especially inland rail ramp pools. Shippers will also be charged fees for the dwelling chassis — separate from the per diem charge shippers pay per day once the container is out of use beyond its free time. “This can lead to tens of millions of dollars in penalties,” Brashier said.
He predicts that per diem charges are going to surge in the second and third quarters of this year.
“These are on top of charges for warehousing, which are still at historic highs,” Brashier said. “Late fees and warehouse fees are passed onto the consumer, which is why we are not seeing products fall as much as they should.”
Shipping containers at a container terminal at the Port of Long Beach-Port of Los Angeles complex, in Los Angeles, California, April 7, 2021.
Lucy Nicholson | Reuters
National storage pricing is up 1.4% month-over-month and 10.6% year-over-year, according to WarehouseQuote.
Many small businesses, which represent the largest share of the U.S. economy in number but are often the last to benefit from a decline in supply chain pricing, tell CNBC they do not believe inflation has peaked.
For shippers with inventory imbalances, Brashier says these charges could cost tens of millions of dollars per quarter. Brashier warns these charges, on top of weaker consumer demand, will ripple through earnings.
ITS Logistics is advising clients to avoid a hit to their bottom line by considering short-term, pop-up storage offered by third-party logistics providers, or 3PL, and grounding operations. “This will reduce reliance on storing freight in ocean containers,” Brashier said.
Mark Baxa, president and CEO of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, tells CNBC that inflation and higher interest rates are driving supply chain leaders to critically examine working capital investments in inventory and operations in relation to consumer demand forecasts.
“In the short run, supply chains have moved closer to finance teams to manage cash flow, coupled with greater efforts to manage costs across operations. Considerations have moved to close-in review and total cost management across the business, including people, technology, warehousing and transportation investments,” Baxa said.
One industry facing supply chain inflationary headwinds is construction.
Phillip Ross, accounting and audit practice leader of Anchin’s architecture and engineering group, said supply chain inflation has made it more difficult for companies to manage completion times for projects.
“In some cases, we are looking at six to eight months before materials will be available,” Ross said. “Construction, as one of the largest industries in the U.S., is uniquely impacted by the supply chain, which led to construction companies experiencing not only delays in their work but also increased prices for materials.”
Some inflationary elements stemming from Covid-related supply chain disruptions remain, according to Jim Monkmeyer, president of transportation at DHL Supply Chain. These include higher costs related to diversion of containers to East Coast ports, production disruptions and shortages in China and elsewhere, and intermodal constraints forcing higher cost alternatives, such as air freight and expedited truck.
Even with the rate of inflation slowing, higher consumer prices are expected to remain for a variety of other reasons, from contract terms set with suppliers before recent disinflation and company desire to maintain profit margins.
Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, tells CNBC that shippers are also finding it harder to absorb extra costs as a result of the Trump-Biden tariffs on China. “These tariffs are now hitting $170 billion and are baked into the cost of goods and, hence, higher prices at the register,” Lamar said. “The tariffs make it harder for companies to absorb other inflationary costs.”
“I’m confident that Microsoft will emerge from this stronger and more competitive,” CEO Satya Nadella announced in a memo to employees that was posted on the company website Wednesday. Some employees will find out this week if they’re losing their jobs, he wrote.
Earlier this month, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the company was planning to lay off more than 18,000 employees, primarily in its human resources and stores divisions. It came after Amazon said in November it was looking to cut staff, including in its devices and recruiting organizations. CNBC reported at the time that the company was looking to lay off about 10,000 employees.
Amazon went on a hiring spree during the Covid-19 pandemic. The company’s global workforce swelled to more than 1.6 million by the end of 2021, up from 798,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Google parent company Alphabet had largely avoided layoffs until January, when it cut 15% of employees from Verily, its health sciences division. Google itself has not undertaken any significant layoffs as of Jan. 18, but employees are increasingly growing worried that the ax may soon fall.
Crypto.com announced plans to lay off 20% of its workforce Jan. 13. The company had 2,450 employees, according to PitchBook data, suggesting around 490 employees were laid off.
CEO Kris Marszalek said in a blog post that the crypto exchange grew “ambitiously” but was unable to weather the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire FTX without the further cuts.
“All impacted personnel have already been notified,” Marszalek said in a post.
The exchange plans to cut 950jobs, according to a blog post. Coinbase, which had roughly 4,700 employees as of the end of September, had already slashed 18% of its workforce in June saying it needed to manage costs after growing “too quickly” during the bull market.
“With perfect hindsight, looking back, we should have done more,” CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC in a phone interview at the time. “The best you can do is react quickly once information becomes available, and that’s what we’re doing in this case.”
In a letter to employees, co-CEO Marc Benioff said customers have been more “measured” in their purchasing decisions given the challenging macroeconomic environment, which led Salesforce to make the “very difficult decision” to lay off workers.
Salesforce said it will record charges of $1 billion to $1.4 billion related to the headcount reductions, and $450 million to $650 million related to the office space reductions.
Meta‘s disappointing guidance for the fourth quarter of 2022 wiped out one-fourth of the company’s market cap and pushed the stock to its lowest level since 2016.
The tech giant’s cuts come after it expanded headcount by about 60% during the pandemic. The business has been hurt by competition from rivals such as TikTok, a broad slowdown in online ad spending and challenges from Apple’s iOS changes.
Lyftannounced in November that it cut 13% of its staff, or about 700 jobs. In a letter to employees, CEO Logan Green and President John Zimmer pointed to “a probable recession sometime in the next year” and rising ride-share insurance costs.
For laid-off workers, the ride-hailing company promised 10 weeks of pay, health care coverage through the end of April, accelerated equity vesting for the Nov. 20 vesting date and recruiting assistance. Workers who had been at the company for more than four years will get an extra four weeks of pay, they added.
CEO Patrick Collison wrote in a memo to staff that the cuts were necessary amid rising inflation, fears of a looming recession, higher interest rates, energy shocks, tighter investment budgets and sparser startup funding. Taken together, these factors signal “that 2022 represents the beginning of a different economic climate,” he said.
Stripe was valued at $95 billion last year, and reportedly lowered its internal valuation to $74 billion in July.
In a memo to staff, CEO Tobi Lutke acknowledged he had misjudged how long the pandemic-driven e-commerce boom would last, and said the company is being hit by a broader pullback in online spending. Its stock price is down 78% in 2022.
Netflix announced two rounds of layoffs. In May, the streaming service eliminated 150 jobs after the company reported its first subscriber loss in a decade. In late June, it announced another 300 layoffs.
In a statement to employees, Netflix said, “While we continue to invest significantly in the business, we made these adjustments so that our costs are growing in line with our slower revenue growth.”
Snap CEO Evan Spiegel told employees in a memo that the company needs to restructure its business to deal with its financial challenges. He said the company’s quarterly year-over-year revenue growth rate of 8% “is well below what we were expecting earlier this year.”
Retail brokerage firm Robinhood slashed 23% of its staff in August, after cutting 9% of its workforce in April. Based on public filings and reports, that amounts to more than 1,100 employees.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev blamed “deterioration of the macro environment, with inflation at 40-year highs accompanied by a broad crypto market crash.”
“Tesla will be reducing salaried headcount by 10% as we have become overstaffed in many areas,” Musk wrote. “Note this does not apply to anyone actually building cars, battery packs or installing solar. Hourly headcount will increase.”
