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  • Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes for fighter jets on visit to U.K.

    Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes for fighter jets on visit to U.K.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushed for fighter jets to ensure his country’s victory over Russia in a dramatic speech before the U.K. Parliament, where he also thanked the British people for their support since “Day One” of Moscow’s invasion. The embattled leader’s daring to visit Britain in a bid for more advanced weapons comes as Ukraine braces for an expected Russian offensive and hatches its own plans to retake land held by Moscow’s forces. 

    Support from Western allies thus far has been key to Ukraine’s surprisingly stiff defense — and now the two sides are engaged in grinding battles.
     
    Hundreds of lawmakers and parliamentary staff packed the 900-year-old Westminster Hall, the oldest — and unheated — part of Parliament for Zelenskyy’s speech. It was only his second confirmed journey outside Ukraine since Russia invaded nearly a year ago.

    President Zelensky Makes Surprise Visit To The UK
    Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy gives a peace sign as he is applauded by Speaker of the House of Lords, Lord McFall, (L) and Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Hoyle (R) after he addressed parliamentarians in Westminster Hall on February 8, 2023 in London, England.

    Getty Images


    Zelenskyy, wearing his trademark olive drab sweatshirt, urged allies to send his country jets, saying combat aircraft would be “wings for freedom.”
     
    The president, who planned to meet later with King Charles III, noted that the British monarch was a qualified military pilot.
     
    “The king is an Air Force pilot,” Zekenskyy said, and “in Ukraine today, every Air Force pilot is a king.”
     
    He brought a gift of a Ukrainian Air Force helmet, inscribed by a Ukrainian pilot with the phrase: “We have freedom. Give us wings to protect it.”
     
    In past wars, “evil lost,” Zekenskyy told lawmakers. “We know Russia will lose and we we know victory will change the world.″
     
    He also called for stronger sanctions against Moscow, until “Russia is deprived of any possibility to finance this war.”
     
    He said he was speaking on behalf of the brave people of his own country, and thanked Britons for their bravery.
     
    “London has stood with Kyiv since Day One,” he said, handing over a combat helmet as a thank you to Britain.
     
    Zelenskyy has rallied support for his country repeatedly through such speeches — mostly given remotely — to Western lawmakers.   
    The Ukrainian leader arrived on a Royal Air Force plane in London on Wednesday. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak greeted him on the tarmac, tweeting a photo of him embracing the Ukrainian leader.

    “The United Kingdom was one of the first to come to Ukraine’s aid. And today I’m in London to personally thank the British people for their support,” Zelenskyy said on Instagram.
     
    A large convoy of vehicles left the airport and headed straight to Downing Street in central London. Both leaders posed briefly for photos in front of the famous black door that leads into the U.K. prime minister’s residence.
     
    The U.K. is one of the biggest military backers of Ukraine and has sent the country more than 2 billion pounds ($2.5 billion) in weapons and equipment.
     
    The visit comes as Sunak announced that Britain will train Ukrainian pilots on “NATO-standard fighter jets.” Ukraine has urged its allies to send jets, though the U.K. says it’s not practical to provide the Ukrainian military with British warplanes.
     
    More than 10,000 Ukrainian troops have also been trained at bases in the U.K., some on the Challenger 2 tanks that Britain is sending.

    Estonia NATO
    A British Challenger 2 tank moves during the Winter Camp 23 military drills near Tapa, Estonia, February 5, 2023.

    Pavel Golovkin/AP


    “I am proud that today we will expand that training from soldiers to marines and fighter jet pilots, ensuring Ukraine has a military able to defend its interests well into the future,” Sunak said.
     
    Coinciding with the visit, the U.K. government announced a new round of sanctions against six entities that Britain said supplied equipment to the Russian military.
     
    CST, a manufacturer of Russian drones and parts for helicopters used against Ukraine, were among those sanctioned. Others targeted included five individuals linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s luxury residences, including Boris Titov and Aerostart owner Viktor Myachin.

    Zelenskyy addressed the U.K. Parliament remotely in March, two weeks after the start of the invasion. He echoed World War II leader Winston Churchill’s famous “never surrender” speech, vowing that Ukrainians “will fight till the end at sea, in the air. We will continue fighting for our land, whatever the cost.”
     
    Before Sunak took office, Zelenskyy had formed a bond with Boris Johnson, who was one of Ukraine’s most vocal backers while he was prime minister. Sunak took office in October and has pledged to maintain the U.K.’s support.
     
    Zelenskyy visited the U.S. in December. On Wednesday, he may be seeking Western pledges of more advanced weapons before potential spring offensives by both Russia and Ukraine. Zelenskyy will also meet with King Charles III and U.K. military chiefs during his visit.


    Ukrainian captain exchanges gifts of gratitude with President Biden

    02:51

    In Brussels, there were increasing expectations that the Ukrainian leader might also make his first visit to European Union institutions since the war began.
     
    Leaders from 27-nation bloc will be gathering for a summit in Brussels on Thursday. That would enable Zelenskyy to meet with all major leaders of the bloc in one day. Zelenskyy has often addressed EU summits only through video calls from Ukraine.
     
    The EU’s legislature has also slated a special plenary session in Brussels for Thursday in the hopes that Zelenskyy will come following his trip to Britain.
     
    The London visit came as Russian forces blasted areas of eastern Ukraine with more artillery bombardments, Ukrainian officials said Wednesday, in what Kyiv authorities believe is part of a new thrust by the Kremlin’s forces before the invasion anniversary.
     
    Russian forces over the past day launched major shelling attacks on areas near the front line in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, killing a 74-year-old woman and wounding a 16-year-old girl in the border town of Vovchansk, local Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said.
     
    Russian forces in Ukraine are focusing their efforts on “waging a counteroffensive” in the country’s industrial east, with the aim of taking full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that make up the Donbas, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said.
     
    Russian troops launched assaults near Bakhmut and Vuhledar, two mining towns in the Donetsk region that have been among Moscow’s key targets, Ukrainian officials said. 


    Russian mercenaries on the “lies” that lured them to Ukraine

    03:01

    Seizing Bakhmut could severely disrupt Ukraine’s military supply routes. It would also open a door for Moscow’s forces to drive toward key Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk.
     
    Ukrainian authorities say the Kremlin’s goal is to complete full control of the Donbas, an expansive industrial area bordering Russia. That would give Russian President Vladimir Putin a major battlefield success after months of setbacks and help him rally public opinion behind the war.
     
    Military analysts say that after a Ukrainian counteroffensive that started last summer and recaptured large areas from Russia, the war has been largely static in recent months.
     
    Moscow, meanwhile, believes Ukraine is preparing its own battlefield push.
     
    The Russian-installed leader of the occupied Luhansk region said Wednesday the situation in some areas is “very difficult” because Kyiv is mustering forces for a counterattack.
     
    Leonid Pasechnik told Russian state TV that the situation is “very difficult” in areas around a key Russian supply route. “Unfortunately, the enemy is accumulating sufficient reserves there, forces to counterattack, to return the lost territories,” he said.
     
    It wasn’t possible to verify the claims by the two sides.
     

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  • Zelensky makes surprise visit to UK as Ukraine appeals for more military support | CNN

    Zelensky makes surprise visit to UK as Ukraine appeals for more military support | CNN


    London
    CNN
     — 

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky touched down in Britain Wednesday on a surprise visit to London, at a time when Kyiv is urging the West to send more weapons and military support to counter Russian advances.

    UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak greeted Zelensky at Stansted Airport, north of London, after he landed aboard a UK Royal Air Force C-17 transport plane. Sunak tweeted a picture of the pair embracing on the runway. “Welcome to the UK, President @ZelenskyyUa,” reads the caption, adding the hashtag #GlorytoUkraine.

    Zelensky traveled to Downing Street with Sunak, and will later address Parliament, UK officials said. He is also set to meet Britain’s King Charles, Buckingham Palace has said, as well as Ukrainian troops being trained by British forces.

    The president’s visit to London is only his second outside his country since Russia invaded Ukraine almost a year ago, following his visit to Washington DC in December.

    The trip comes as Zelensky has been desperately seeking military aid from Western allies as Ukrainian officials warn Moscow is gearing up for a spring offensive.

    Britain announced Wednesday it would send more military equipment to Kyiv to help counter a possible Russian spring offensive. Sunak said the UK would expand training to Ukrainian fighter pilots and marines, while also promising a long-term investment in Ukraine’s military.

    The UK will begin training Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard fighter jets, in what CNN understands would be the first official training program for Ukrainian pilots on Western fighter aircraft. There was however no mention of providing Ukraine with Western fighter aircraft that Zelensky has been calling for.

    Kyiv will likely welcome the news that the UK’s training program is expanding to fighter jets, with Ukrainian officials having long called for Western allies to supply the planes.

    No 10 has so far refused to send its Typhoon or F-35 fighter jets to Ukraine, saying it was not “the right approach.” However, Wednesday’s announcement will raise hopes that there could be a future shift in attitude.

    The UK also said it will provide Ukraine with “longer range capabilities,” without going into details.

    “The Prime Minister will also offer to provide Ukraine with longer range capabilities,” a Downing Street statement read. “This will disrupt Russia’s ability to continually target Ukraine’s civilian and critical national infrastructure and help relieve pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines.”

    NATO allies recently answered Kyiv’s calls for main battle tanks to bolster its military – which has until now been relying on Soviet-era tanks.

    The UK was the first to announce in mid-January that it would send 12 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. After weeks of pressure, this was followed by announcements from Germany and the US that they would send Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams tanks respectively.

    According to the Downing Street statement, the UK will announce additional sanctions against Russia on Wednesday.

    The sanctions will be introduced “in response to Russia’s continued bombardment of Ukraine, including the targeting of those who have helped Putin build his personal wealth, and companies who are profiting from the Kremlin’s war machine,” Downing Street said.

    The UK government has already imposed sanctions on hundreds of Russian individuals and entities since last February when Russia invaded Ukraine, according to UK government data.

    Sunak said: “President Zelensky’s visit to the UK is a testament to his country’s courage, determination and fight, and a testament to the unbreakable friendship between our two countries.

    “Since 2014, the UK has provided vital training to Ukrainian forces, allowing them to defend their country, protect their sovereignty and fight for their territory.

    “I am proud that today we will expand that training from soldiers to marines and fighter jet pilots, ensuring Ukraine has a military able to defend its interests well into the future.”

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  • Theater or Zelenskyy? How Macron keeps failing to lead European response to Ukraine war

    Theater or Zelenskyy? How Macron keeps failing to lead European response to Ukraine war

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    When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Western Europe last week to drum up support for his country’s fight against Russia, he made a last-minute stopover in Paris.

    French President Emmanuel Macron was lucky to get the nod.

    Macron’s attitude toward Ukraine’s war effort has frequently proved inscrutable to allies who wonder why France seemed to be hedging its bets by pursuing dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and touting the need for “security guarantees” for Moscow.

    While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has suffered bruising criticism over the slow pace of his decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Paris’ contribution to the overall war effort has been substantially smaller, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of gross domestic product, than Berlin’s, according to a ranking from the Kiel Institute for World Economy updated at the end of last year.

    Even accounting for Macron’s more recent pledge to deliver Caesar howitzers and, jointly with Italy, a MAMBA air defense system, France’s overall support effort is likely to remain well below that of the biggest helpers in 2023. As of November, Poland had pledged more than €3 billion in aid, while the United Kingdom has offered more than €7 billion. France, by contrast, offered €1.4 billion — placing the country well below Western allies in terms of a percentage of GDP.

    When Zelenskyy left Ukraine to visit Western leaders last week, Paris didn’t issue a formal invitation — and the meeting with Macron nearly didn’t happen. The French president had originally planned to spend the evening at the theater with his wife. It was only when aides saw footage of Zelenskyy’s solemn address at Westminster Hall in London that they rushed out an invitation and arranged for the late-evening visit in Paris, according to an Elysée official.

    No wonder Zelenskyy nearly missed Paris.

    When asked why France has sometimes pursued a divergent path on Ukraine compared with other Western allies, French officials defend Macron. In an interview with POLITICO, former French President François Hollande said it made sense to speak to Putin before the invasion to “deprive him of any arguments or pretexts.” A French diplomat added: “It was either that or do nothing. He [Macron] decided to try diplomacy — I don’t think we can blame him for that.”

    As for France’s tepid contribution to the war effort, officials argue that, as continental Europe’s premier military power, Paris has other security responsibilities, namely defending Europe’s southern flank, and must retain some capacity. Sending France’s Leclerc tanks, they say, doesn’t make sense because they are no longer in production and couldn’t easily be replaced.

    But when asked if France is leading on Ukraine, the same officials tend to shrug.

    For François Heisbourg, senior adviser to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Macron’s zig-zagging approach to the Ukraine war effort represents a missed opportunity not just in terms of hard power — but in terms of Macron’s larger ambition, spelled out in his 2017 Sorbonne speech, to position himself as a European leader in the lineage of former President François Mitterrand, former Prime Minister Michel Rocard or former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

    “2022 was a year of missed chances,” said Heisbourg. Macron “spent 15 days going around telling everyone who would listen that Russia required security guarantees, as if Russia wasn’t grown-up enough to request them itself.”

    Macron “can still make up the lost time, but the precondition for that is to be extremely clear on Ukraine, and from there to recover legitimacy among the central European states.”

    France’s ‘open road’

    The irony is that in geopolitical terms, Paris has rarely had a better chance to lead Europe.

    Britain has left the European Union, removing a major liberal counterweight to France’s statism. Germany’s Olaf Scholz has been tied down by coalition politics and the impact of Berlin’s failed bet on Russian energy. France, by contrast, enjoyed stable government and the benefits of relative energy independence thanks to its early embrace of nuclear power. As far as Paris’ position in Europe was concerned, “the road was open,” said Heisbourg.

    In some ways, Macron has exploited this opportunity. Paris has been by far the most vocal advocate for a robust EU response to U.S. President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, a bumper package of subsidies for green business. When he traveled to Washington in November, the French president very much looked like a European leader delivering grievances to a trade rival — and bringing home results for all of the EU.

    Yet France’s attempts at economic leadership within the EU haven’t translated into a wider bid to become Europe’s security guarantor and consensus builder. “No one has replaced Angela Merkel at the Council table,” argued one Eastern European diplomat when asked who was currently “leading” the EU. Hollande and several diplomats lamented the deterioration of Franco-German ties under Macron, saying that it undermined the bloc’s coherence and any hope of a more integrated approach to defense.

    As the war in Ukraine nears its first anniversary, Macron has pivoted toward much more full-throated support for Kyiv. In his New Year’s address to the French, he promised Ukrainians to “help you until victory” — making the rhetorical switch from “Russia can’t win the war.” He’s left a door open to training Ukrainian pilots on Western fighter jets and made a significant contribution to the MAMBA missile defense system. “Toward victory, toward peace, toward Europe,” he tweeted during Zelenskyy’s visit to Paris.

    Yet France also remains one of the most skeptical countries in the EU when it comes to accepting Ukraine into the bloc, and its overall contribution still pales in comparison to other countries.

    Macron still has three years in office, plenty of time to double down on his newfound interest in Ukrainian “victory.”

    But with street protests over planned pension reforms now dogging his presidency at home, the golden opportunity is fading.

    Nicholas Vinocur

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  • Zelenskyy in surprise London visit to meet Sunak and King Charles

    Zelenskyy in surprise London visit to meet Sunak and King Charles

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    LONDON — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in London to meet the U.K. prime minister and King Charles III as Britain announces new training programs for fighter pilots and marines.

    Zelenskyy’s surprise trip includes a visit to see Ukrainian troops being trained by the British armed forces and an address to the U.K. parliament. He will be granted an audience with the British monarch at Buckingham Palace Wednesday afternoon.

    This is Zelenskyy’s second trip overseas since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The Ukrainian leader had also been expected to visit EU leaders in Brussels later this week, but that stop has been cast in doubt after the plans leaked on Monday.

    In a statement Wednesday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the U.K. will now train pilots on the operation of NATO-standard fighter jets as well as marines. This comes in addition to an expansion of U.K. training Ukrainian recruits from 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers this year.

    The new training programs show Britain’s commitment “to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine for years to come,” Sunak said.

    During their talks, Sunak is expected to offer the Ukrainian president longer-range weapons and his backing for Zelenskyy’s plans to work toward peace, No. 10 Downing Street said.

    “President Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.K. is a testament to his country’s courage, determination and fight, and a testament to the unbreakable friendship between our two countries,” Sunak added.

    The U.K. will also announce further sanctions Wednesday in response to Russia’s continued bombardment of Ukraine, the prime minister’s office said.

    Cristina Gallardo

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  • UK to train Ukrainian pilots as ‘first step’ toward sending fighter jets

    UK to train Ukrainian pilots as ‘first step’ toward sending fighter jets

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    WAREHAM, Dorset — Ukrainian fighter pilots will soon be trained in Britain — but Kyiv will have to wait a little longer for the modern combat jets it craves.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the U.K. Wednesday with a firm British commitment to train fighter jet pilots on NATO-standard aircraft, along with an offer of longer-range missiles.

    U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has now been tasked with investigating which jets the U.K. might be able to supply to Ukraine, Downing Street announced — but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fell short of making actual promises on their supply, which his spokesman said would only ever be a “long-term” option.

    Speaking at a joint press conference at the Lulworth military camp in Wareham, southern England, Sunak said the priority must be to “arm Ukraine in the short-term” to ensure the country is not vulnerable to a fresh wave of Russian attacks this spring.

    Standing alongside Zelenskyy in front of a British-made Challenger 2 tank, Sunak restated that “nothing is off the table” when it comes to provision of military assistance to Ukraine, and said fourth-generation fighter jets were part of his conversation with the Ukrainian president “today, and have been previously.”

    These talks also covered the supply chains required to support such sophisticated aircraft, Sunak said.

    But he cautioned a decision to deliver jets would only be taken in coalition with allies, and said training pilots must come first and could take “some time.”

    “That’s why we have announced today that we will be training Ukrainian air force on NATO-standard platforms, because the first step in being able to provide advanced aircrafts is to have soldiers or aviators who are capable of using them,” Sunak said. “We need to make sure they are able to operate the aircraft they might eventually be using.”

    The first Challenger 2 tanks pledged by Britain will arrive in Ukraine by next month, Sunak added.

    President Zelenskyy ramped up the pressure on Rishi Sunak joking that he had left parliament two years earlier grateful for “delicious English tea”, but this time he would be “thanking all of you in advance for powerful English planes” | Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images

    Describing his private conversations with Sunak as “fruitful,” Zelenskyy said he was “very grateful” that Britain had finally heard Kyiv’s call for longer-range missiles.

    But he warned that without fighter jets, there is a risk of “stagnation” in his country’s battle against Russian occupation.

    “Without the weapons that we are discussing now, and the weapons that we just discussed with Rishi earlier today, and how Britain is going to help us, you know, all of this is very important,” he said. “Without this, there would be stagnation, which will not bring anything good.”

    Rolling out the red carpet

    The U.K. had rolled out the red carpet for Zelenskyy’s surprise day-long visit, which alongside the visit to the military base included talks with Sunak at Downing Street, a meeting with King Charles at Buckingham Palace and a historic address to the U.K. parliament in Westminster.

    Only a handful of leaders have made such an address in Westminster Hall over the past 30 years, including Nelson Mandela and Barack Obama.

    “We have freedom. Give us wings to protect it,” Zelenskyy told British lawmakers, after symbolically handing House of Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle a helmet used by one of Ukraine’s fighter pilots. The message written upon it stated: “Combat aircraft for Ukraine, wings for freedom.”

    Zelenskyy’s call was backed by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who urged Sunak to meet his request.

    “We have more than 100 Typhoon jets. We have more than 100 Challenger 2 tanks,” he said. “The best single use for any of these items is to deploy them now for the protection of the Ukrainians — not least because that is how we guarantee our own long-term security.”

    Western defense ministers will gather to discuss further military aid to Ukraine on February 14, at a meeting at the U.S. base of Ramstein in southwest Germany.

    Sunak’s spokesman said that while Britain has made no decision on whether to send its own jets, “there is an ongoing discussion among other countries about their own fighter jets, some of which are more akin to what Ukrainian pilots are used to.”

    Training day

    Britain’s announcement marks the first public declaration by a European country on the training of Ukrainian pilots, and could spur other European nations into following suit. France is already considering a similar request from Kyiv.

    Yuriyy Sak, an adviser to Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov, praised the U.K.’s decision and said allies “know very well that in order to defeat Russia in 2023, Ukraine needs all types of weaponry,” short of nuclear.

    “A few weeks ago, the U.K. showed leadership in the issue of providing tanks to Ukraine, and then other allies have followed their example,” he said. “Now the U.K. is again showing leadership in the pilot training issue. Hopefully other countries will follow.”

    The British scheme is likely to run in parallel to an American program to train Ukrainian pilots to fly U.S. fighters, for which the U.S. House of Representatives approved $100 million last summer. In October Ukraine announced a group of several dozen pilots had been selected for training on Western fighter jets.

    The first Ukrainian pilots are expected to arrive in Britain in the spring, with Downing Street warning the instruction program could last up to five years. Military analysts, however, say the length of any such scheme could vary significantly depending on the pilots’ previous expertise and the type of fighter they learn to operate.

    The U.K. announcement is therefore of “significant value” but “does not suggest the provision of fighter jets is imminent,” said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow for airpower at the British think tank RUSI.

    The British program is likely to involve simulators and focus on providing training on NATO tactics and basic cockpit procedures to Ukrainian pilots who already have expertise in flying Soviet-era jets, Bronk said.

    The new training programs come in addition to the expansion in the numbers of Ukrainian early recruits being trained on basic tactics in the U.K., from 10,000 to 20,000 soldiers this year.

    ‘Unimaginable hardships’

    Wednesday’s visit marked Zelenskyy’s first trip to the U.K. since Russia’s invasion almost a year ago and only his second confirmed journey outside Ukraine during the war, following a visit to the United States last December.

    The Ukrainian president arrived on a Royal Air Force plane at an airport north of London Wednesday morning, the entire trip a closely guarded secret until he landed.

    Recounting his first visit to London back in 2020, when he sat in British wartime leader Winston Churchill’s armchair, Zelenskyy said: “I certainly felt something — but it is only now that I know what the feeling was. It is a feeling of how bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.”

    Zelenskyy travelled to Paris Wednesday evening for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In a short statement, Zelenskyy said France and Germany “can be game-changers,” adding: “The earlier we get heavy weapons, long-range missiles, aircraft, alongside tanks, the sooner the war will end.”

    Macron said Ukraine “can count on France and Europe to [help] win the war,” while Scholz added that Zelenskyy expected attendance at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels Thursday “is a sign of solidarity.”

    Dan Bloom and Clea Caulcutt provided additional reporting.

    Esther Webber, Dan Bloom and Clea Caulcutt

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  • West struggles to deliver on Zelenskyy’s defense wish list

    West struggles to deliver on Zelenskyy’s defense wish list

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    BRUSSELS — With Ukraine’s partners racing to send more weapons to Kyiv amid an emerging Russian offensive, fulfilling Ukrainian requests is becoming trickier.

    Ukraine is still waiting for promised deliveries of modern tanks. Combat jets, though much discussed, are mired in the throes of government hesitation.

    On top of that, Kyiv is using thousands of rounds of ammunition per day — and Western production simply can’t keep up.

    As members of the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group gather in Brussels on Tuesday to coordinate arms assistance to Ukraine, they face pressure to expedite delivery and provide even more advanced capabilities to Ukrainian forces. 

    “We have received good signals,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address following visits to London, Paris and Brussels. 

    “This applies both to long-range missiles and tanks, and to the next level of our cooperation — combat aircraft,” he said, however adding, “We still need to work on this.”

    And while most of Ukraine’s partners are committed to responding to Zelenskyy’s stump tour with expanded support as the conflict threatens to escalate, Western governments will have to overcome political and practical hurdles. 

    “It is clear that we are in a race of logistics,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday. “Key capabilities like ammunition, fuel, and spare parts must reach Ukraine before Russia can seize the initiative on the battlefield.”

    Existing and future supply of weapons to Ukraine will both be on the table when the defense group — made up of about 50 countries and popularly known at the Ramstein format — meets at NATO headquarters.

    NATO allies will also hold a meeting of defense ministers directly afterward to hear the latest assessment from Ukrainian counterparts and discuss the alliance’s future defense challenges. 

    Ukrainian officials will use the session, which would typically be held at the U.S. base in Ramstein, Germany, to share their latest needs with Western officials — from air defense to ground logistics — while it will also be a venue for Kyiv’s supporters to check in on implementation of earlier pledges and availabilities in the near future.

    The aim of the session, said a senior European diplomat, is “to step up military support as much as needed — not only commitments, but actual speedy deliverables is of particular significance.”

    “Tanks are needed not on paper but in the battlefield,” said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of discussions.

    Ammo, ammo, ammo 

    One of the most pressing issues on the table in Brussels this week is how to keep the weapons already sent to Ukraine firing. 

    “Of course it is important to discuss new systems, but the most urgent need is to ensure that all the systems which are already there, or have been pledged, are delivered and work as they should,” Stoltenberg said.

    During meetings with EU heads on Thursday, Zelenskyy and his team provided each leader with an individualized list requesting weapons and equipment based on the country’s known stocks and capabilities. 

    But there was one common theme. 

    “The first thing on the list was, everywhere, the ammunition,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said.

    “If you have the equipment and you don’t have the ammunition, then it’s no use,” the Estonian leader told reporters on Friday. 

    And while Ukraine is in dire need of vast amounts of ammo to keep fighting, Western countries’ own stocks are running low. 

    “It’s a very real concern,” said Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe. “None of us, including the United States, is producing enough ammunition right now,” he said in a phone interview on Sunday.

    Munitions will also be top of mind at the session of NATO defense ministers on Wednesday, who will discuss boosting production of weapons, ammunition and equipment, along with future defense spending targets for alliance members.

    Boosting stockpiles and production, Stoltenberg emphasized on Monday, “requires more defense expenditure by NATO allies.” 

    Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas | Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty images

    And while the NATO chief said some progress has been made on work with industry on plans to boost stockpile targets, some current and former officials have expressed frustration about the pace of work. 

    Kallas last week raised the idea of joint EU purchases to help spur production and hasten deliveries of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, although it’s not clear whether this plan would enjoy sufficient support within the bloc — and how fast it could have an impact.

    Hodges thinks companies need a clearer demand signal from governments. “We need industry to do more,” he said. 

    But he noted, “These are not charities … they are commercial businesses, and so you have to have an order with money before they start making it.”

    Jets fight fails to take off (for now

    Fighter jets are a priority ask for Ukrainian officials, although Western governments seem not yet ready to make concrete commitments. 

    Numerous countries have expressed openness to eventually providing Ukraine with jets, indicating that the matter is no longer a red line. Regardless, hesitation remains. 

    NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg | Valeria Mongelli/AFP via Getty Images

    The U.K. has gone the furthest so far, announcing that it will train Ukrainian pilots on fighter jets. But when it comes to actually providing aircraft, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace cautioned that “this is not a simple case of towing an aircraft to the border.”

    Polish President Andrzej Duda, meanwhile, said sending F-16 aircraft would be a “very serious decision” which is “not easy to take,” arguing that his country does not have enough jets itself.

    For some potential donors, the jets debate revolves around both timing and utility. 

    “The essential question is: What do they want to do with planes? It’s not clear,” said one French diplomat, who was unauthorized to speak publicly. “Do they think that with 50 or 100 fighter jets, they can retake the Donbas?” the diplomat said.

    The diplomat said there is no point in training Ukrainians on Western jets now. “It’ll take over six months to train them, so it doesn’t respond to their immediate imperatives.”

    But, the diplomat added, “maybe some countries should give them MiGs, planes that they can actually fly.”

    Slovakia is in fact moving closer to sending MiG-29 jets to Ukraine. 

    “We want to do it,” said a Slovak official who was not at liberty to disclose their identity. “But we must work out the details on how,” the official said, adding that a domestic process and talks with Ukraine still need to take place. 

    No big jet announcements are expected at the Tuesday meeting, though the issue is likely to be discussed. 

    Where are the tanks?

    And while Western governments have already — with great fanfare — struck a deal to provide Ukraine with modern tanks, questions over actual deliveries will also likely come up at Tuesday’s meeting.

    Germany’s leadership in particular has stressed it’s time for countries that supported the idea of sending tanks to live up to their rhetoric. 

    “Germany is making a very central contribution to ensuring that we provide rapid support, as we have done in the past,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said last week. 

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shown an anti-aircraft gun tank Gepard | Morris MacMatzen/Getty Images

    “We are striving to ensure that many others who have come forward in the past now follow up on this finger-pointing with practical action,” he went on. Germany’s goal is for Ukraine to receive tanks by the end of March, and training has already begun. 

    Along with tanks, another pending request that Ukrainian officials will likely bring up this week is long-range missiles. 

    Hodges, who has been advocating for the West to give Ukraine the weapons it would need to retake Crimea, said he believes long-range precision weapons are the key. “That’s how you defeat mass with precision.” 

    Any such weapon, he argued, “has got to be at the top of the list.” 

    Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris and Hans von der Buchard contributed from Berlin.


    Lili Bayer

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  • UK energy giant BP’s profits double to $27.7 billion

    UK energy giant BP’s profits double to $27.7 billion

    LONDON (AP) — British energy firm BP reported record annual earnings Tuesday, fueling demands that the U.K. government boost taxes for companies benefiting from the high price of oil and natural gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    London-based BP said underlying replacement cost profit, which excludes one-time items and fluctuations in the value of inventories, jumped to $27.7 billion in 2022 from $12.8 billion a year earlier. That beat the $26.8 billion BP earned in 2008, when tensions in Iran and Nigeria pushed world oil prices to a record of more than $147 a barrel.

    BP also increased its quarterly dividend by 10% and announced plans to buy back an additional $2.75 billion of stock from shareholders.

    But the good news for BP shareholders is likely to be tempered by the public fallout, particularly in its home country. High oil and gas prices have hit Britain hard, with double-digit inflation fueling a wave of public-sector strikes, soaring food bank use and demands that politicians expand a tax on the windfall profits of energy companies to help pay for public services.

    Ed Miliband, the opposition Labour Party’s spokesman on climate issues, called on the U.K. government to bring forward a “proper” windfall tax on energy companies.

    “It’s yet another day of enormous profits at an energy giant, the windfalls of war, coming out of the pockets of the British people,″ Miliband said.

    Similar censure was directed at London-based Shell last week, when it said annual earnings doubled to a record $39.9 billion last year.

    Bumper profits for energy companies worldwide have sparked demands that the fossil fuel industry do more to offset high energy bills even as they cut climate-damaging carbon emissions. U.S.-based Exxon Mobil posted record earnings of $55.7 billion last week.

    Last year, Britain approved a 25% windfall tax on earnings from oil and gas produced in the U.K., with the levy increasing to 35% in 2023. Opposition leaders have criticized the government for allowing energy companies to reduce the tax by investing in the U.K.

    BP said it took a charge of more than $1.8 billion last year to cover the new U.K. tax.

    The company also took charges of $25.5 billion as the result of its decision to exit its investments in Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

    After including one-time items and fluctuations in the value of inventories, BP posted a net loss of $2.49 billion for 2022, compared with net income of $7.57 billion the previous year.

    BP on Tuesday said it would boost investment in renewable energy, hydrogen and electric vehicle charging as well as its oil and gas businesses, plowing an additional $8 billion into the two segments through 2030.

    The investments will push oil and gas production to about 2 million barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2030. While the new target is 25% lower than in 2019, BP previously planned to cut production by 40%.

    “We will prioritize projects where we can deliver quickly, at low cost, using our existing infrastructure, allowing us to minimize additional emissions and maximize both value and our contribution to energy security and affordability,” chief executive Bernard Looney said in a statement.

    Energy prices soared after the invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude, a benchmark for global oil prices, averaged $101.32 a barrel last year, 43% higher than in 2021. The average wholesale price of natural gas in Britain jumped 76%.

    Prices have dropped in recent months, with Brent crude averaging $88.87 in the fourth quarter.

    “The question becomes, what will they do with record profits and operating cash flow? Governments are already questioning record profits from other peer global energy companies,″ said Gianna Bern, an oil expert and professor of finance at the Mendoza College of business at the University of Notre Dame. “In an environment of record inflation and gas prices for the consumer, global energy companies will be compelled to reassess the cost and availability of energy for all.″

    Alice Harrison, fossil fuels campaign leader at environmental advocacy nonprofit Global Witness, said BP’s profits were made “on the back of three global crises” — the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and climate breakdown.

    “For those struggling, these mammoth profits will be a bitter pill to swallow,” Harrison said. “There are no two ways about it — BP is richer because we’re poorer.’’

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  • Rishi Sunak is haunted by ghosts of prime ministers past

    Rishi Sunak is haunted by ghosts of prime ministers past

    LONDON — “Back to her old self again” was how one erstwhile colleague described Liz Truss, who made her return to the U.K.’s front pages at the weekend. 

    That’s exactly what Rishi Sunak and his allies were afraid of. 

    Truss, who spent 49 turbulent days in No. 10 Downing Street last year, is back. After a respectful period of 13 weeks’ silence, the U.K.’s shortest-serving prime minister exploded back onto the scene with a 4,000-word essay in the Sunday Telegraph complaining that her radical economic agenda was never given a “realistic chance.”

    In her first interview since stepping down, broadcast Monday evening, she expanded on this, saying she encountered “system resistance” to her plans as PM and did not get “the level of political support required” to change prevailing attitudes.

    While the reception for Truss’s relaunch has not been exactly rapturous — with much of the grumbling coming from within her own party — it still presents a genuine headache for her successor, Sunak, who must now deal with not one but two unruly former prime ministers jostling from the sidelines. 

    Boris Johnson is also out of a job, but is never far from the headlines. Recent engagements with the U.S. media and high-profile excursions to Kyiv have ensured his strident views on the situation in Ukraine remain well-aired, even as he racks up hundreds of thousands in fees from private speaking engagements around the world.

    Wasting no time

    Truss and Johnson have, typically, both opted for swifter and more vocal returns to frontline politics than many of their forerunners in the role. 

    “Most post-war prime ministers have been relatively lucky with their predecessors,” says Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. “They have tended to follow the lead of [interwar Conservative PM] Stanley Baldwin, who in 1937 promised: ‘Once I leave, I leave. I am not going to speak to the man on the bridge, and I am not going to spit on the deck.’”

    Such an approach has never been universal. Ted Heath, PM from 1970-74, made no secret of his disdain for his successor as Tory leader Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher in turn “behaved appallingly” — in Bale’s words — to John Major, who replaced her in Downing Street in 1990 after she was forced from office.

    But more recent Tory PMs have kept a respectful distance.

    David Cameron quit parliament entirely after losing the EU referendum in 2016, and waited three years before publishing a memoir — reportedly in order to avoid “rocking the boat” during the ongoing Brexit negotiations. 

    And while Theresa May became an occasional liberal-centrist thorn in Boris Johnson’s side, she did so only after a series of careful, low-profile contributions in the House of Commons on subjects close to her heart, such as domestic abuse and rail services in her hometown of Maidenhead.

    “You might expect to see former prime ministers be a tad more circumspect in the way they re-enter the political debate,” says Paul Harrison, former press secretary to May. “But then she [Truss] wasn’t a conventional prime minister in any sense of the word, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that she’s done something very unconventional.”

    Truss’s rapid refresh has not met with rave reviews.

    Paul Goodman, editor of influential grassroots website ConservativeHome, writes that “rather than concede, move on, and focus on the future, she denies, digs in and reimagines the past,” while Tory MP Richard Graham told Times Radio that Truss’ time in office “was a period that [people] would rather not really remember too clearly.”

    One long-serving Conservative MP said “she only had herself to blame for her demise, and we are still clearing up some of the mess.” Another appraised her latest intervention simply with an exploding-head emoji.

    Trussites forever

    But despite Tory appeals for calm, the refusal of Truss and Johnson to lie low remains a serious worry for the man eventually chosen to lead the party after Truss crashed and burned and Johnson thought better of trying to stage a comeback.

    Between them, the two ex-PMs have the ability to highlight two of Sunak’s big weaknesses. 

    While Truss may never live down the disastrous “mini-budget” of last September which sent the U.K. economy off the rails, her wider policy agenda still has a hold over a number of Conservative MPs who believe they have no hope of winning the election without it. 

    This was the rationale behind the formation last month of the Conservative Growth Group, a caucus of MPs who will carry the torch for the low-tax, deregulatory approach to government favored by Truss and who continue to complain Sunak has little imagination when it comes to supply-side reforms. 

    Simon Clarke, who was a Cabinet minister under Truss, insisted “she has thought long and hard” about why her approach failed and “posed important questions” about how the U.K. models economic growth in her Telegraph piece.

    Other Conservatives have been advocating a reappraisal of the actions of the Bank of England in the period surrounding the mini-budget, arguing that Truss was unfairly blamed for a collapse in the bond market.

    But Harrison doubts whether she may be the best advocate for the causes she represents. “There’s a question about whether it actually best serves her interests in pushing back against a strong prevailing understanding of what happened so soon after leaving office.”

    Johnson, meanwhile — to his fans, at least — continues to symbolize the star quality and ballot box appeal which they fear Sunak lacks. 

    One government aide who has worked with both men said Johnson’s strength lay in his “undeniable charisma” and persuasive power, while Sunak, more prosaically, “was all about hard work.”

    These apparent deficiencies feed into a fear among Sunak’s MPs that he is governing too tentatively and, as one ally put it recently, needs to rip off the “cashmere jumper.”

    It’s been posited that British prime ministers swing back and forth between “jocks” and “nerds” — and nothing is more likely to underline Sunak’s nerdiness than a pair of recently-deposed jocks refusing to shut up. 

    Trouble ahead 

    Unluckily for Sunak, there are at least three big-ticket items coming up which will provide ample ground on which his nemeses can cause trouble. 

    One is the forthcoming budget — the government’s annual public spending plan, due March 15. Truss and Johnson are unlikely to get personally involved, but Truss loyalists will make a nuisance of themselves if Sunak’s approach is judged to offer the paucity of answers on growth they already fear.

    Before that, Truss is expected to make her first public appearance outside the U.K. with a speech on Taiwan which could turn up the heat on Sunak over his approach to relations with China. 

    One person close to her confirmed China would be “a big thing” for her, and is expected to be a theme of her future parliamentary interventions.

    Then there is the small matter of the Northern Ireland protocol, the thorniest unresolved aspect of the Brexit deal with Brussels where tortured negotiations appear to be reaching an endgame.

    Sunak has been sitting with a draft version of a technical deal since last week, according to several people with knowledge of the matter, and is now girding his loins for the unenviable task of trying to get a compromise agreement past both his own party and hardline Northern Irish unionists.

    A Whitehall official working on the protocol said Johnson “absolutely” had the power to detonate that process, and that “he should never be underestimated as an agent of chaos.”

    One option touted by onlookers is for Sunak to attempt to assemble the former prime ministers and ask them to stand behind him on a matter of such huge national and international significance. But as things stand such a get-together is difficult to picture.

    At the heart of Johnson and Truss’ actions seems to be an essential disquiet over the explosive manner of their departures.

    They appear fated to follow in Thatcher’s footsteps, as Bale puts it — “not caring how much trouble they cause Sunak, because in their view, he should never have taken over from them in the first place.”

    Esther Webber and Annabelle Dickson

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  • British sailors hospitalized after drinking water on naval ship

    British sailors hospitalized after drinking water on naval ship

    A Royal Navy warship has returned to port in Britain after several sailors got sick from the vessel’s drinking water, officials said Saturday. 

    The navy said frigate HMS Portland had returned to its base at Portsmouth on England’s south coast on Friday “as a precautionary measure, following an issue with one of the ship’s fresh water systems.”

    It said “a small number of personnel were taken to hospital as a precaution.”

    Britain Navy Frigate
    The British frigate HMS Portland heads through the Suez canal, in Ismailia, Egypt Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2008. 

    Anonymous / AP


    The Daily Telegraph reported that a crew member put the wrong chemicals into the system that converts sea water to drinking water, but quickly realized the mistake and reported it to their superiors.

    In recent months HMS Portland, a Type 23 frigate, has tracked Russian submarines in the North Sea, and helped monitor a Russian frigate and accompanying tanker as they sailed in international waters near the U.K.


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  • King Charles III won’t appear on Australia’s cash as country drops U.K. royals from banknotes

    King Charles III won’t appear on Australia’s cash as country drops U.K. royals from banknotes

    Australia has decided it’s had enough of the British monarchy – at least on its dollar bills. The country will replace the last of its banknotes featuring the late Queen Elizabeth II with something much closer to home.

    Britain’s King Charles III, the late queen’s first son and successor, may have inherited the throne, but his face will not appear on Australia’s five-dollar bills. 

    Australia Royals
    Australian $5 notes are pictured in Sydney, Septembe 10, 2022. King Charles III won’t feature on Australia’s new $5 bill, the nation’s central bank has announced, signaling a phasing out of the British monarchy from Australian banknotes, although he is still expected to feature on coins.

    Mark Baker/AP


    “I think that’s absolutely brilliant,” said Sydney resident Leanne Nijemeisland. “This is Australia.”

    Instead of the king, Australia’s government decided that new five-dollar bills will carry an image honoring the country’s indigenous culture.  

    “The five-dollar note will say more about our history and our heritage and our country, and I see that as a good thing,” said Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers.


    How the British Empire and Commonwealth have changed over the years

    01:42

    The British monarch is formally Australia’s head of state, but Queen Elizabeth’s death in September resurfaced questions about the how much of a role Britain’s royals should still play in former British colonies — if any. 

    “We’re in Australia. We need to be a republic. We’ve got nothing to do with the monarchy,” Sydney resident Stewart Fairbairn said.

    “The queen’s finished, and I don’t think Charles is up to it,” agreed Robyn Welsh.

    Queen Elizabeth II’s face is still on more than a dozen currencies in circulation around the world.


    Royal family’s first Christmas without Queen Elizabeth II

    09:00

    The U.K. will start rolling out new banknotes bearing King Charles’ image next year, but especially in light of Australia’s move, it’s unclear how many other countries will stick with the tradition.

    Not everyone in Australia is glad to see the monarch replaced. 

    One Sydney resident, who didn’t give her name, said “the queen is amazing and so we should keep her, in like, loving memory of her. Maybe the king can go on another note, but keep the queen.”

    Charles’ face will make it onto Australia’s coins, but the monarchy’s 100-year monopoly on the country’s cash is finally spent.

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  • Bank of England takes interest rates to highest level since 2008 | CNN Business

    Bank of England takes interest rates to highest level since 2008 | CNN Business


    London
    CNN
     — 

    The Bank of England raised UK interest rates by half a percentage point on Thursday, moving more aggressively than its US counterpart to fight inflation.

    The central bank took rates to 4% — the highest level since the depths of the global financial crisis. UK inflation eased to 10.5% in December but remains near a 41-year high.

    The Bank of England said inflation was likely to fall sharply over the rest of the year, largely as past increases in energy and other prices fall out of the calculation. But it signaled significant uncertainty over its forecast.

    “The labor market remains tight and domestic price and wage pressures have been stronger than expected, suggesting risks of greater persistence in underlying inflation,” the bank said in a statement.

    Wholesale energy prices might also boost UK inflation more than expected, it added.

    The Bank of England had to weigh up current price growth against the risk of recession. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund forecast that the United Kingdom would be the only major economy to contract this year.

    The UK rate hike followed a quarter-point interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. In contrast to the Bank of England, the Fed has slowed the pace of its increases as US inflation is starting to abate.

    The European Central Bank is also expected to hike rates for the 20 countries that use the euro by half a percentage point later on Thursday. Eurozone inflation fell in January but at 8.5% remains way above the ECB’s 2% target.

    — This is a developing story and will be updated.

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  • Strike in U.K. sees up to half a million workers walk off jobs in biggest industrial action in over a decade

    Strike in U.K. sees up to half a million workers walk off jobs in biggest industrial action in over a decade

    London — An estimated half a million workers across multiple sectors in the U.K. went on strike Wednesday in the biggest industrial action Great Britain has seen in more than a decade. The strikers included teachers, civil servants, train and bus drivers, border officials and university staff demanding better pay and working conditions amid soaring inflation and energy prices — difficult circumstances that an IMF forecast suggests may have been exacerbated by Brexit.

    “The government have been running down our education (system), underfunding our schools and underpaying the people who work in them,” the National Education Union’s joint general secretary, Kevin Courtney, said, according to The Associated Press. 

    About 85% of schools across the country were either fully or partially closed due to the strikes on Wednesday, according to BBC News, leaving thousands of parents to either change their own work schedules or seek child care options.

    Teachers Join Civil Servants And Rail Workers In Strikes Across The UK
    Education workers rally in London during a day of strikes across the U.K., February 1, 2023.

    Getty


    “Primary schools where you can’t find special needs assistants because they’re taking jobs in supermarkets, where they are paid better — that’s what’s making people take action,” said Courtney.

    Wide-scale strikes have been held across the U.K. for months, grinding public services to a halt and disrupting hospital and emergency care, among other things. While nurses and ambulance workers weren’t striking again Wednesday, they do plan to return to picket lines in the coming days.

    Inflation in the U.K. has soared over the last year to the highest rates seen in 40 years, and it still stood Wednesday at 10.5%. 

    On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said the U.K. would be the only major economy to contract this year, performing worse even than Russia, which is still under heavy international sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. 

    In October, the IMF forecast that Britain could expect modest growth in 2023, along with other European nations emerging from the coronavirus pandemic and adjusting to energy markets largely devoid of Russian fuel. But its new forecast this week sees the British economy shrinking by 0.6%.

    The IMF did not link its prediction to the U.K.’s exit from the European Union three years ago, but Britain’s trade has shrunk as a result, and many workers from the EU have left the U.K. since Brexit, causing a labor shortage that other European countries haven’t had to contend with.


    U.K. facing wave of strikes as workers demand better pay

    04:16

    Many public sector workers say that their salaries have decreased in real terms over the last decade, and the soaring inflation has pushed them into financial difficulty, with some forced to use food banks.

    U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has so far taken a hard line against the strikes, insisting that some of the pay increases being demanded by public sector workers are not affordable for the government. Union leaders say the government has refused to offer anything that would be meaningful enough to call off the strikes.

    “Our children’s education is precious, and they deserve to be in school today,” Sunak said.

    The leader of a national federation of trade unions, Paul Nowak, said the strikes would not stop unless meaningful change was achieved.

    “The message to the government is that this is not going to go away. These problems won’t magically disappear,” he said, according to The Associated Press.

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  • Day of disruption in UK as hundreds of thousands join strike

    Day of disruption in UK as hundreds of thousands join strike

    LONDON (AP) — Thousands of schools in the U.K. closed some or all of their classrooms, train services were paralyzed and delays were expected at airports on the biggest day of industrial action Britain has seen in more than a decade, as unions stepped up pressure on the government Wednesday to provide better pay amid a cost-of-living crisis.

    The Trades Union Congress, a federation of unions, estimated that up to a half-million workers, including teachers, university staff, civil servants, border officials and train drivers, went on strike across the country.

    More walkouts, including by nurses and ambulance workers, are planned for the coming days and weeks.

    Months of strikes have disrupted the daily routines of Britons as a bitter dispute between unions and the government over pay and working conditions drags on. The simultaneous strikes across multiple industries on Wednesday marked an escalation of the unions’ protest actions.

    The last time the country saw mass walkouts on this scale was in 2011, when well over 1 million public sector workers staged a one-day strike in a dispute over pensions. Others on strike Wednesday ranged from museum workers and London bus drivers to coast guard personnel and officers who staff passport booths at airports. The British Museum was closed Wednesday because of the strikes.

    Union bosses argue that despite some pay increases, such as a 5% offer the government proposed to teachers, the U.K.’s soaring inflation has plunged scores of public sector workers into financial difficulty because their wages have failed to keep pace. Teachers, health workers and many others say their wages have fallen in real terms over the last decade, and the surge in living costs that began last year exacerbated the problem.

    The Trades Union Congress, or TUC, said Wednesday that the average public sector worker is 203 pounds ($250) a month worse off compared with 2010, once inflation is taken into account.

    Inflation in the U.K. stands at 10.5%, the highest in 40 years, driven by skyrocketing food and energy costs. While some expect price increases to slow this year, Britain’s economic outlook remains grim. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said the country will be the only major economy to contract this year, performing even worse than sanctions-hit Russia.

    The National Education Union said some 23,000 schools would be affected Wednesday, with an estimated 85% fully or partially closed.

    “The government have been running down our education (system), underfunding our schools and underpaying the people who work in them,” Kevin Courtney, the NEU’s joint general secretary, said. “Primary schools where you can’t find special needs assistants, because they’re taking jobs in supermarkets where they are paid better. That’s what’s making people take action.”

    Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told lawmakers that teacher strikes were “wrong,” and claimed his government had already given teachers their biggest pay raise in 30 years.

    “Our children’s education is precious, and they deserve to be in school today,” he said.

    His office argued that pay increases for public sector workers would not be affordable for taxpayers and could lead to tax hikes, more government borrowing or spending cuts elsewhere.

    Union leaders blame the government for refusing to negotiate and offer enough to halt the strikes.

    Workers were also angered by the government’s plan to introduce a new law aiming to curb strike disruptions by enforcing minimum service levels in key sectors, including health and transportation. Unions have criticized the legislation as an attack on the right to strike

    Lawmakers backed the bill on Monday. Thousands of people turned out in London, Manchester and other cities Wednesday to protest the proposal.

    TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak said industrial unrest would continue until the government puts an acceptable pay offer on the table.

    “The message to the government is that this is not going to go away. These problems won’t magically disappear,” he said.

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  • Britain hit by biggest day of strikes in a decade as pay disputes escalate | CNN Business

    Britain hit by biggest day of strikes in a decade as pay disputes escalate | CNN Business


    London
    CNN
     — 

    As many as half a million workers are striking across Britain on Wednesday, closing schools, canceling university lectures and bringing most of the rail network to a standstill in what unions say is the biggest single day of walkouts in more than a decade.

    Teachers, university staff, train drivers and civil servants — including staff checking passports at airports — are striking in large numbers over pay and working conditions as living standards continue to plunge after years of below-inflation raises.

    At the same time, the Trades Union Congress, which represents 48 unions, is holding over 75 rallies across the United Kingdom to protest a government bill that it argues is an “attack” on the right to strike. The bill would require basic service levels to be maintained in the fire, ambulance and rail sectors in the event of walkouts.

    Escalating strike action comes just weeks after the government tried to resolve pay disputes to bring an end to the worst wave of industrial unrest the country has seen in decades. Many public sector workers have been offered raises of 4% or 5% for the current financial year, with the annual rate of inflation running at 10.5%

    Up to 300,000 teachers are expected to strike on Wednesday, marking the first of seven days of strike action through February and March by the National Education Union, the largest union in the sector. Strikes will affect around 23,400 schools, about 85%, in England and Wales, with many closed fully or partially.

    Wednesday also marks the beginning of strikes by 70,000 members of the University and College Union (UCU), which will hit 150 UK universities on 18 days in February and March, affecting 2.5 million students.

    Meanwhile, more than 100,000 members of the Public and Commercial Services Union, which represents civil servants, will strike over pay, pensions and job security at 123 government departments and agencies.

    And only around 30% of train services are expected to run on Wednesday, according to Britain’s railway company Rail Delivery Group, which warned in a statement on its website that the disruption could drag on into the rest of the week because many trains won’t be in the right depots.

    A train stopped at a platform in Waterloo Station, London, during Britain's biggest day of strikes in more than a decade on February 1, 2023.

    The strikes will take a toll on already slowing economic growth. The United Kingdom is likely to be the only major economy to fall into recession this year, after recording one of the strongest growth rates among advanced economies last year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    The IMF has marginally upgraded its forecast for global growth, on the back of China’s reopening and an improvement in financial conditions as inflation starts to ease.

    On Britain, however, the fund has turned gloomier.

    Research director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said this was because of higher energy prices, lower productivity as a result of employment not recovering to its pre-pandemic level and elevated inflation leading to higher interest rates and mortgage costs.

    The IMF expects inflation to remain above 8% in the United Kingdom this year, compared to a rate of 4.6% across advanced economies and 6.6% globally. It sees the UK economy contracting by 0.6% in 2023, a 0.9 percentage point downgrade from its forecast in October.

    Union members and supporters march towards Westminster, London on February 1, 2023.

    An economic slowdown and persistent inflation will worsen a cost-of-living crisis that is afflicting thousands of workers, as wages fail to keep pace with rising prices.

    The average 5% pay increase for teachers this year is inadequate, particularly as it follows a decade of “wage erosion” that is leading to a “recruitment and retention crisis,” NEU deputy general secretary Niamh Sweeny told CNN.

    According to the union, pay for experienced teachers has declined by 23% since 2010 once inflation is taken into account. Support staff such as teaching assistants have seen salaries fall by 27% in real terms over that period, and some can earn more working in their local supermarket than in education, according to Sweeny.

    A spokesperson for the Department of Education responded: “Strike action is highly damaging to children’s education, particularly following the disruption that children have experienced over the past two years.”

    Sian Elliott, a senior policy officer at the Trades Union Congress told CNN that the solution to the wave of strikes was simple: “All that is needed in order to resolve the current disputes is just to offer an improved pay deal.”

    Yet rather than resolve pay disputes, the government has “rushed” an anti-strike bill through parliament without adequate scrutiny or an impact assessment, she added.

    In a sign that industrial unrest could escalate further, UK firefighters have voted to strike for the first time since 2003. The Fire Brigades Union has given the government until February 9 to make an improved pay offer.

    Nurses and ambulance drivers will begin a new wave of walkouts next week.

    — Olesya Dmitracova contributed reporting.

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  • Putin has never threatened me, Germany’s Scholz says

    Putin has never threatened me, Germany’s Scholz says

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Russian President Vladimir Putin has never threatened him or Germany, following claims by Boris Johnson that Putin threatened the former U.K. prime minister with a missile strike.

    “Putin didn’t threaten me or Germany” in the phone conversations the chancellor has had with the Russian leader, Scholz told German newspaper Bild in an interview published Sunday.

    In a British documentary that aired last week, Johnson revealed that Putin threatened him in a long phone call in February 2022 just before Russia invaded Ukraine. “He said ‘Boris, I don’t want to hurt you but, with a missile, it would only take a minute’ — something like that,” Boris said in the documentary, referring to Putin.

    Johnson said he took the Russian leader’s threat to be “playing along” with attempts to get him to negotiate over Ukraine. The Kremlin has denied any threat.

    Pushed in the Bild interview on whether Scholz had also received similar threats during phone calls with the Russian leader, the chancellor said “no.”

    In his phone calls with Putin, “I make it very clear to Putin that Russia has sole responsibility for the war,” Scholz said. “In our telephone conversations, our very different positions on the war in Ukraine become very clear,” he said.

    The chancellor also denied that Germany’s decision to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine was a threat to Russia.

    He said that Germany is delivering battle tanks to Ukraine, along with other allies including the U.S., so that Kyiv “can defend itself.”

    “This joint approach prevents an escalation of the war,” Scholz said.

    Scholz’s comments come as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that “the situation is getting tougher” on the front lines of the war in the east of the country. Moscow is throwing in “more and more of its forces to break our defenses. Now, it is very difficult in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, near Lyman, and other directions,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address late Saturday.

    As battles rage around these towns, an early mediator between Russia and Ukraine at the start of the war — former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who served for just six months last year — revealed that Putin early in the invasion had promised not to kill Zelenskyy. In an interview with the Associated Press published Sunday, Bennett said that during a visit to Moscow in March 2022 he asked Putin if the Kremlin was planning to try to kill the Ukrainian leader.

    “He said ‘I won’t kill Zelenskyy.’ I then said to him ‘I have to understand that you’re giving me your word that you won’t kill Zelenskyy.’ He said ‘I’m not going to kill Zelenskyy,’” Bennett told the AP. Bennett said that after his meeting, he called Zelenskyy to inform him of Putin’s comments.

    The Kremlin has previously denied Ukrainian claims that Russia intended to assassinate Zelenskyy.

    Helen Collis

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  • What happens to Europe when the balloon goes up?

    What happens to Europe when the balloon goes up?

    BERLIN — The saga of the Chinese spy balloon has plunged relations between Washington and Beijing into fresh crisis. For European governments, that spells all kinds of trouble.

    With relations worsening between the two superpowers, EU leaders seem likely to come under intensifying pressure from the White House to pick sides and join forces against China, just as they were hoping for a thaw in tricky relations with Beijing. 

    And then there’s the war. 

    Russia is preparing a major offensive in Ukraine over the next few weeks but EU diplomats fear the balloon incident risks distracting President Joe Biden’s team at exactly the moment when American support for Kyiv will be needed most. 

    “We never expected 2023 to be easy, but this is off to a really tough start,” one European diplomat said. 

    On Saturday, the U.S. shot down what it identified as a Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina with an air-to-air missile from an F-22 stealth fighter jet. 

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken indefinitely postponed a visit to Beijing that had been scheduled for this week, the first such trip planned for a U.S. cabinet-level official under Biden’s presidency.

    Images of the incident have circulated in dramatic video footage on social media, taken mostly by excited onlookers cheering the theatrical show of military might.

    Beijing insists the giant solar panel-powered object was a “civilian airship” that went off course while conducting “mainly meteorological” research. In response to the missile strike, the Chinese government expressed “strong dissatisfaction” and protested against the use of force by the U.S. to attack the unmanned, civilian craft. It added that it would “reserve the right to take further necessary responses.”

    U.S. foreign policy, while still heavily invested in supporting Ukraine militarily, may be distracted by the sharpening clashes with Beijing. Right-wing U.S. politicians have been calling for more attention on China since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago. 

    As the “U.S.-China rivalry sharpens, there will be more pressure on Europeans, whose approach to China is very diverse, to pick sides,” said Ricardo Borges de Castro, head of the Europe in the World Program at the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank. “The reality is, if the world becomes increasingly dominated by two poles — U.S. and China — the EU and Europeans will need to pick sides for as long as Europe’s security and defense depends on the U.S. umbrella.”

    Russia, in the meantime, is expected to launch massive offensives in just a few weeks, when the harshest winter season comes to an end, according to Ukrainian officials.

    A plane flies past the Chinese spy balloon (top right) | Nell Redmond/EPA

    “Washington will be busy with Beijing for some time now,” a senior EU diplomat said on Sunday. “It’s not goodnews for the EU because Russia is still the main concern.”

    Bad timing

    For Europe, the incident also comes at an inconvenient moment as senior officials have been preparing to re-engage with Beijing.

    The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, is understood to be making plans for a trip to Beijing in April, when he would also be expected to travel to Japan for a G7 ministerial meeting. Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron has also announced his intention to meet President Xi Jinping in the Chinese capital early this year; he would be interested in taking a top official from the European Commission to join him, according to an official with knowledge of the plans.

    The latest U.S.-China flare-up “means that we would now have to be watching how badly China reacts, and whether these [planned] trips will be treated as a propaganda success by Beijing in splitting up the transatlantic ties,” a diplomat said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak on this subject.

    “In the wake of the Ukraine war, the China policy coordination between both sides of the [the Atlantic is] losing steam,” said Reinhard Bütikofer, chair of the European Parliament’s delegation on relations with China. “While Washington D.C. enhances pressure against Beijing particularly on the technological front and in the Taiwan context, Brussels, Berlin and Paris show new hesitancy.” 

    Further complicating matters is Beijing’s apparent lack of interest in helping the West put pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

    Worse, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, China has emerged as the dominant supplier of dual-use goods to Russia, providing technology that Moscow’s military needs to prosecute its invasion. Chinese state-owned defense companies have shipped navigation equipment, jamming technology and fighter-jet parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defense companies, according to the article.

    European leaders have repeatedly warned Beijing not to aid Moscow militarily.

    China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, has dropped a plan to visit Brussels even though he would be traveling to Germany for the Munich Security Conference in February, two diplomats told POLITICO. 

    Europe’s reaction to the balloon incident was muted. The EU merely noted the U.S.’s right to defend its airspace. “Safety and protection of airspace is an issue of national security and therefore a competence, responsibility and prerogative” of the specific state or states involved, an EU spokesperson said on Sunday. 

    China’s Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu visited Moscow last week to reassure his Russian counterparts | Johannes Eisele/ AFP via Getty Images

    Few European countries supported the Biden administration’s decision in public, highlighting a general sense of reluctance to aggravate Beijing. One of the exceptions was Estonia, where Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu, retweeting a BBC report about the balloon’s downing, said: “I support USA operation to defend its sovereignty. I fully condemn provocations jeopardising USA national security.”

    Other U.S. allies did not hold back. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau praised the operation, tweeting “Canada strongly supports this action — we’ll keep working together … on our security and defense.”

    South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin, during a visit to Washington, said “I sufficiently understand the decision to postpone Secretary [Blinken]’s visit to China and I think that China should make a swift and very sincere explanation about what happened.”

    Tom Tugendhat, U.K. security minister and a long-time skeptic of Beijing, called for concern over other forms of Chinese threats. “Worried about being spied on from the sky? Look at what some apps are collecting on your phone and consider your cyber security. Some risks are much closer to home,” he tweeted.  

    EU foreign policy in 2023 may be defined by which of these expires first: European  indecision over China, or America’s appetite for providing Europe’s defense. 

    Stuart Lau

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  • Britain’s semiconductor plan goes AWOL as US and EU splash billions

    Britain’s semiconductor plan goes AWOL as US and EU splash billions

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    LONDON — As nations around the world scramble to secure crucial semiconductor supply chains over fears about relations with China, the U.K. is falling behind.

    The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the world’s heavy reliance on Taiwan and China for the most advanced chips, which power everything from iPhones to advanced weapons. For the past two years, and amid mounting fears China could kick off a new global security crisis by invading Taiwan, Britain’s government has been readying a plan to diversify supply chains for key components and boost domestic production.

    Yet according to people close to the strategy, the U.K.’s still-unseen plan — which missed its publication deadline last fall — has suffered from internal disconnect and government disarray, setting the country behind its global allies in a crucial race to become more self-reliant.

    A lack of experience and joined-up policy-making in Whitehall, a period of intense political upheaval in Downing Street, and new U.S. controls on the export of advanced chips to China, have collectively stymied the U.K.’s efforts to develop its own coherent plan.

    The way the strategy has been developed so far “is a mistake,” said a former senior Downing Street official.

    Falling behind

    During the pandemic, demand for semiconductors outstripped supply as consumers flocked to sort their home working setups. That led to major chip shortages — soon compounded by China’s tough “zero-COVID” policy. 

    Since a semiconductor fabrication plant is so technologically complex — a single laser in a chip lithography system of German firm Trumpf has 457,000 component parts — concentrating manufacturing in a few companies helped the industry innovate in the past.

    But everything changed when COVID-19 struck.

    “Governments suddenly woke up to the fact that — ‘hang on a second, these semiconductor things are quite important, and they all seem to be concentrated in a small number of places,’” said a senior British semiconductor industry executive.

    Beijing’s launch of a hypersonic missile in 2021 also sent shivers through the Pentagon over China’s increasing ability to develop advanced AI-powered weapons. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to geopolitical uncertainty, upping the pressure on governments to onshore manufacturers and reduce reliance on potential conflict hotspots like Taiwan.

    Against this backdrop, many of the U.K.’s allies are investing billions in domestic manufacturing.

    The Biden administration’s CHIPS Act, passed last summer, offers $52 billion in subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. The EU has its own €43 billion plan to subsidize production — although its own stance is not without critics. Emerging producers like India, Vietnam, Singapore and Japan are also making headway in their own multi-billion-dollar efforts to foster domestic manufacturing.

    US President Joe Biden | Samuel Corum/Getty Images

    Now the U.K. government is under mounting pressure to show its own hand. In a letter to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak first reported by the Times and also obtained by POLITICO, Britain’s semiconductor sector said its “confidence in the government’s ability to address the vital importance of the industry is steadily declining with each month of inaction.”

    That followed the leak of an early copy of the U.K.’s semiconductor strategy, reported on by Bloomberg, warning that Britain’s over-dependence on Taiwan for its semiconductor foundries makes it vulnerable to any invasion of the island nation by China.  

    Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory, makes more than 90 percent of the world’s advanced chips, with its Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) vital to the manufacture of British-designed semiconductors.

    U.S. and EU action has already tempted TSMC to begin building new plants and foundries in Arizona and Germany.

    “We critically depend on companies like TSMC,” said the industry executive quoted above. “It would be catastrophic for Western economies if they couldn’t get access to the leading-edge semiconductors any more.”

    Whitehall at war

    Yet there are concerns both inside and outside the British government that key Whitehall departments whose input on the strategy could be crucial are being left out in the cold.

    The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) is preparing the U.K.’s plan and, according to observers, has fiercely maintained ownership of the project. DCMS is one of the smallest departments in Whitehall, and is nicknamed the ‘Ministry of Fun’ due to its oversight of sports and leisure, as well as issues related to tech.

    “In other countries, semiconductor policies are the product of multiple players,” said Paul Triolo, a senior vice president at U.S.-based strategy firm ASG. This includes “legislative support for funding major subsidies packages, commercial and trade departments, R&D agencies, and high-level strategic policy bodies tasked with things like improving supply chain resilience,” he said.

    “You need all elements of the U.K.’s capabilities. You need the diplomatic services, the security services. You need everyone working together on this,” said the former Downing Street official quoted above. “There are huge national security aspects to this.”

    The same person said that relying on “a few [lower] grade officials in DCMS — officials that don’t see the wider picture, or who don’t have either capability or knowledge,” is a mistake. 

    For its part, DCMS rejected the suggestion it is too closely guarding the plan, with a spokesperson saying the ministry is “working closely with industry experts and other government departments … so we can protect and grow our domestic sector and ensure greater supply chain resilience.”

    The spokesperson said the strategy “will be published as soon as possible.”

    But businesses keen for sight of the plan remain unconvinced the U.K. has the right team in place for the job.

    Key Whitehall personnel who had been involved in project have now changed, the executive cited earlier said, and few of those writing the strategy “have much of a background in the industry, or much first-hand experience.”

    Progress was also sidetracked last year by lengthy deliberations over whether the U.K. should block the sale of Newport Wafer Fab, Britain’s biggest semiconductor plant, to Chinese-owned Nexperia on national security grounds, according to two people directly involved in the strategy. The government eventually announced it would block the sale in November.

    And while a draft of the plan existed last year, it never progressed to the all-important ministerial “write-around” process — which gives departments across Whitehall the chance to scrutinize and comment upon proposals.

    Waiting for budget day

    Two people familiar with current discussions about the strategy said ministers are now aiming to make their plan public in the run-up to, or around, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s March 15 budget statement, although they stressed that timing could still change.

    Leaked details of the strategy indicate the government will set aside £1 billion to support chip makers. Further leaks indicate this will be used as seed money for startups, and for boosting existing firms and delivering new incentives for investors.

    U.K. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt | Leon Neal/Getty Images

    There is wrangling with the Treasury and other departments over the size of these subsidies. Experts also say it is unlikely to be ‘new’ money but diverted from other departments’ budgets.

    “We’ll just have to wait for something more substantial,” said a spokesperson from one semiconductor firm commenting on the pre-strategy leaks.

    But as the U.K. procrastinates, key British-linked firms are already being hit by the United States’ own fast-evolving semiconductor strategy. U.S. rules brought in last October — and beefed up in recent days by an agreement with the Netherlands — are preventing some firms from selling the most advanced chip designs and manufacturing equipment to China.

    British-headquartered, Japanese-owned firm ARM — the crown jewel of Britain’s semiconductor industry, which sells some designs to smartphone manufacturers in China — is already seeing limits on what it can export. Other British firms like Graphcore, which develops chips for AI and machine learning, are feeling the pinch too.

    “The U.K. needs to — at pace — understand what it wants its role to be in the industries that will define the future economy,” said Andy Burwell, director for international trade at business lobbying group the CBI.

    Where do we go from here?

    There are serious doubts both inside and outside government about whether Britain’s long-awaited plan can really get to the heart of what is a complex global challenge — and opinion is divided on whether aping the U.S. and EU’s subsidy packages is either possible or even desirable for the U.K.

    A former senior government figure who worked on semiconductor policy said that while the U.K. definitely needs a “more coherent worked-out plan,” publishing a formal strategy may actually just reveal how “complicated, messy and beyond our control” the issue really is.

    “It’s not that it is problematic that we don’t have a strategy,” they said. “It’s problematic that whatever strategy we have is not going to be revolutionary.” They described the idea of a “boosterish” multi-billion-pound investment in Britain’s own fabricator industry as “pie in the sky.”

    The former Downing Street official said Britain should instead be seeking to work “in collaboration” with EU and U.S. partners, and must be “careful to avoid” a subsidy war with allies.

    The opposition Labour Party, hot favorites to form the next government after an expected 2024 election, takes a similar view. “It’s not the case that the U.K. can do this on its own,” Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy said recently, urging ministers to team up with the EU to secure its supply of semiconductors.

    One area where some experts believe the U.K. may be able to carve out a competitive advantage, however, is in the design of advanced semiconductors.

    “The U.K. would probably be best placed to pursue support for start-up semiconductor design firms such as Graphcore,” said ASG’s Triolo, “and provide support for expansion of capacity at the existing small number of companies manufacturing at more mature nodes” such as Nexperia’s Newport Wafer Fab.

    Ministers launched a research project in December aimed at tapping into the U.K. semiconductor sector’s existing strength in design. The government has so far poured £800 million into compound semiconductor research through universities, according to a recent report by the House of Commons business committee.

    But the same group of MPs wants more action to support advanced chip design. Burwell at the CBI business group said the U.K. government must start “working alongside industry, rather than the government basically developing a strategy and then coming to industry afterwards.”

    Right now the government is “out there a bit struggling to see what levers they have to pull,” said the senior semiconductor executive quoted earlier.

    Under World Trade Organization rules, governments are allowed to subsidize their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, the executive pointed out. “The U.S. is doing it. Europe’s doing it. Taiwan does it. We should do it too.”

    This story has been updated. Cristina Gallardo contributed reporting.

    Graham Lanktree and Annabelle Dickson

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  • Briefing wars escalate as nervous EU and Britain enter Brexit endgame

    Briefing wars escalate as nervous EU and Britain enter Brexit endgame

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    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    LONDON — Whisper it softly, but the Brexit endgame has arrived.

    Eighteen months after Brussels and London reopened talks on the contentious Northern Ireland protocol — and more than three years after Britain actually left the EU — panicked officials on both sides of the English Channel are frantically trying to manage expectations as reports of a technical-level deal between the two sides emerge.

    “They’re still in calls with the EU, but it’s literally just lawyers tidying up bits of text,” one senior British government official said Wednesday, in reference to the U.K. negotiating team. “We’re done.”

    Multiple reports suggest U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak now has a draft technical deal on his desk to consider, despite a wave of both official and unofficial denials from politicians and diplomats on all sides.

    “I suspect it is more the technical shape of a deal than a deal per se,” said a second person close to the talks on the U.K. side, “which might be giving them wriggle room to deny it.”

    Denials of an outright agreement were still coming thick and fast Wednesday night after the Times reported that London and Brussels had indeed reached a deal on the key customs and governance disputes that have dogged talks over the protocol. Crucially — and most contentiously — its front page story suggested the EU has given ground on the role its top court will play in resolving future disputes. 

    That followed earlier reporting late last week by Bloomberg News that technical-level solutions on customs, state aid and checks were indeed within touching distance.

    Talks on smoothing the operation of the Northern Ireland protocol have been ongoing since the summer of 2021, with negotiators long targeting a deal this month, ahead of an expected visit to Ireland by U.S. President Joe Biden in April.

    The protocol arrangement, agreed as part of the Brexit divorce deal, sees Northern Ireland continue to follow the EU’s customs union and single market rules, in an effort to avoid a politically-sensitive hard border with the neighboring Republic of Ireland, which remains an EU member state. 

    Yet Northern Ireland’s unionist politicians have long objected to the protocol, with the Democratic Unionist Party boycotting power-sharing and arguing that checks on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland effectively separate the region from the rest of the U.K. They’re backed by critics in Sunak’s governing Conservative Party who resent the Court of Justice of the European Union’s place in protocol governance.

    Selling a deal to those domestic audiences represents an almighty political challenge for a prime minister already battling to keep his fractured party together.

    The official line

    Officially, both sides are sticking to the script and insisting that talks continue.

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters Wednesday: “I’m very sorry, but I cannot give partial elements — because you never know in the very end how the package looks like.”

    In Downing Street, Sunak’s official spokesperson tried to steer journalists away from what he called “speculative” reporting.

    “No deal has been agreed, there is still lots of work to do on all areas, with significant gaps remaining between the U.K. and EU positions,” the spokesperson said. “Talks are ongoing on potential solutions including on goods.”

    But the senior U.K. official quoted before said the message from No. 10 that negotiations are ongoing only applied at a political level.

    They added: “It’s now up to politicians to decide ‘yay’ or ‘nay.’ Rishi could have further technical talks with Ursula von der Leyen and [EU Brexit point-man] Maroš Šefčovič and stuff like that, but officials are done. It’s plain as day.”

    According to the second person close to the talks, Sunak has been receiving regular updates on the evolving technical shape of the deal. 

    “As far as I know, he hasn’t given it the green light yet,” they said. “But it is all being quite ‘secret squirrel’ in the [U.K.] Cabinet Office. So I don’t think many people will be fully in the loop.”

    In Brussels and in London, EU diplomats were busy rubbishing reports of an imminent resolution, while acknowledging that information on the state of play is being kept tight. European ambassadors were briefed on Wednesday morning that a breakthrough is yet to be reached, and that the CJEU issue remains particularly tricky.

    Even inside the U.K., claim and counter-claim were flying. Another British official close to the talks said it was “just wrong [that a deal] is close,” with “fundamental” issues outstanding “including making sure there isn’t a border.” They would not, the person added, “expect anything in the short term.”

    One EU diplomat summed up the mood: “If somebody tells you they know what’s happening, they’re lying.”

    In truth, a final agreement on Brexit has never looked so close.

    Leonie Kijewski, Esther Webber and Cristina Gallardo

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  • The Great British Walkout: Rishi Sunak braces for biggest UK strike in 12 years

    The Great British Walkout: Rishi Sunak braces for biggest UK strike in 12 years

    LONDON — Public sector workers on strike, the cost-of-living climbing, and a government on the ropes.

    “It’s hard to miss the parallels” between the infamous ‘Winter of Discontent’ of 1978-79 and Britain in 2023, says Robert Saunders, historian of modern Britain at Queen Mary, University of London.

    Admittedly, the comparison only goes so far. In the 1970s it was a Labour government facing down staunchly socialist trade unions in a wave of strikes affecting everything from food deliveries to grave-digging, while Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives sat in opposition and awaited their chance. 

    But a mass walkout fixed for Wednesday could yet mark a staging post in the downward trajectory of Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, just as it did for Callaghan’s Labour. 

    Britain is braced for widespread strike action Wednesday, as an estimated 100,000 civil servants from government departments, ports, airports and driving test centers walk out alongside hundreds of thousands of teachers across England and Wales, train drivers from 14 national operators and staff at 150 U.K. universities.

    It follows rolling action by train and postal workers, ambulance drivers, paramedics, and nurses in recent months. In a further headache for Sunak, firefighters on Monday night voted to walk out for the first time in two decades.

    While each sector has its own reasons for taking action, many of those on strike are united by the common cause of stagnant pay, with inflation still stubbornly high. And that makes it harder for Sunak to pin the blame on the usual suspects within the trade union movement.

    Mr Reasonable

    Industrial action has in the past been wielded as a political weapon by the Conservative Party, which could count on a significant number of ordinary voters being infuriated by the withdrawal of public services.

    Tories have consequently often used strikes as a stick with which to beat their Labour opponents, branding the left-wing party as beholden to its trade union donors.

    But public sympathies have shifted this time round, and it’s no longer so simple to blame the union bogeymen.

    Sunak has so far attempted to cast himself as Mr Reasonable, stressing that his “door is always open” to workers but warning that the right to strike must be “balanced” with the provision of services. To this end, he is pressing ahead with long-promised legislation to enforce minimum service standards in sectors hit by industrial action.

    Sunak has made tackling inflation the raison d’etre of his government, and his backbenchers are reasonably content to rally behind that banner | POOL photo by Oli Scarff/Getty Images

    Unions are enraged by the anti-strike legislation, yet Sunak’s soft-ish rhetoric is still in sharp relief to the famously bellicose Thatcher, who pledged during the 1979 strikes that “if someone is confronting our essential liberties … then, by God, I will confront them.”

    Sunak’s careful approach is chosen at least in part because the political ground has shifted beneath him since the coronavirus pandemic struck in 2020.

    Public sympathy for frontline medical staff, consistently high in the U.K., has been further embedded by the extreme demands placed upon nurses and other hospital staff during the pandemic. And inflation is hitting workers across the economy — not just in the public sector — helping to create a broader reservoir of sympathy for strikers than has often been found in the past. 

    James Frayne, a former government adviser who co-founded polling consultancy Public First, observes: “Because of the cost-of-living crisis, what you [as prime minister] can’t do, as you might be able to do in the past, is just portray this as being an ideologically-driven strike.”

    Starmer’s sleight of hand

    At the same time, strikes are not the political headache for the opposition Labour Party they once were. 

    Thatcher was able to portray Callaghan as weak when he resisted the use of emergency powers against the unions. David Cameron was never happier than when inviting then-Labour leader Ed Miliband to disown his “union paymasters,” particularly during the last mass public sector strike in 2011.

    Crucially, trade union votes had played a key role in Miliband’s election as party leader — something the Tories would never let him forget. But when Sunak attempts to reprise Cameron’s refrains against Miliband, few seem convinced.

    QMUL’s Saunders argues that the Conservatives are trying to rerun “a 1980s-style campaign” depicting Labour MPs as being in the pocket of the unions. But “I just don’t think this resonates with the public,” he added.

    Labour’s current leader, Keir Starmer, has actively sought to weaken the left’s influence in the party, attracting criticism from senior trade unionists. Most eye-catchingly, Starmer sacked one of his own shadow ministers, Sam Tarry, after he defied an order last summer that the Labour front bench should not appear on picket lines.

    Starmer has been “given cover,” as one shadow minister put it, by Sunak’s decision to push ahead with the minimum-service legislation. It means Labour MPs can please trade unionists by fighting the new restrictions in parliament — without having to actually stand on the picket line. 

    So far it seems to be working. Paul Nowak, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, an umbrella group representing millions of U.K. trade unionists, told POLITICO: “Frankly, I’m less concerned about Labour frontbenchers standing up on picket lines for selfies than I am about the stuff that really matters to our union” — namely the government’s intention to “further restrict the right to strike.”

    The TUC is planning a day of action against the new legislation on Wednesday, coinciding with the latest wave of strikes.

    Sticking to their guns

    For now, Sunak’s approach appears to be hitting the right notes with his famously restless pack of Conservative MPs.

    Sunak has made tackling inflation the raison d’etre of his government, and his backbenchers are reasonably content to rally behind that banner.

    As one Tory MP for an economically-deprived marginal seat put it: “We have to hold our nerve. There’s a strong sense of the corner (just about) being turned on inflation rising, so we need to be as tough as possible … We can’t now enable wage increases that feed inflation.”

    Another agreed: “Rishi should hold his ground. My guess is that eventually people will get fed up with the strikers — especially rail workers.”

    Furthermore, Public First’s Frayne says his polling has picked up the first signs of an erosion of support for strikes since they kicked off last summer, particularly among working-class voters.

    “We’re at the point now where people are feeling like ‘well, I haven’t had a pay rise, and I’m not going to get a pay rise, and can we all just accept that it’s tough for everybody and we’ve got to get on with it,’” he said.

    More than half (59 percent) of people back strike action by nurses, according to new research by Public First, while for teachers the figure is 43 percent, postal workers 41 percent and rail workers 36 percent.

    ‘Everything is broken’

    But the broader concern for Sunak’s Conservatives is that, regardless of whatever individual pay deals are eventually hammered out, the wave of strikes could tap into a deeper sense of malaise in the U.K.

    Inflation remains high, and the government’s independent forecaster predicted in December that the U.K. will fall into a recession lasting more than a year.

    More than half (59 percent) of people back strike action by nurses, according to new research by Public First, while for teachers the figure is 43 percent, postal workers 41 percent and rail workers 36 percent | Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

    Strikes by ambulance workers only drew more attention to an ongoing crisis in the National Health Service, with patients suffering heart attacks and strokes already facing waits of more than 90 minutes at the end of 2022.

    Moving around the country has been made difficult not only by strikes, but by multiple failures by rail providers on key routes.

    One long-serving Conservative MP said they feared a sense of fatalism was setting in among the public — “the idea that everything is broken and there’s no point asking this government to fix it.”

    A former Cabinet minister said the most pressing issue in their constituency is the state of public services, and strike action signaled political danger for the government. They cautioned that the public are not blaming striking workers, but ministers, for the disruption.

    Those at the top of government are aware of the risk of such a narrative taking hold, with the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, taking aim at “declinism about Britain” in a keynote speech Friday.

    Whether the government can do much to change the story, however, is less clear.

    Saunders harks back to Callaghan’s example, noting that public sector workers were initially willing to give the Labour government the benefit of the doubt, but that by 1979 the mood had fatally hardened.

    This is because strikes are not only about falling living standards, he argues. “It’s also driven by a loss of faith in government that things are going to get better.”

    With an election looming next year, Rishi Sunak is running out of time to turn the public mood around.

    Annabelle Dickson and Graham Lanktree contributed reporting.

    Esther Webber

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  • Confidence in London’s police force crumbles as sex crime cases against officers pile up | CNN

    Confidence in London’s police force crumbles as sex crime cases against officers pile up | CNN


    London
    CNN
     — 

    In a distinguished 30-year career with London’s Metropolitan Police, Dal Babu has seen his fair share of shocking behavior.

    Yet the handling of a female recruit’s sexual assault allegedly at the hands of her superior disgusted him so much he’s never forgotten the incident.

    A detective sergeant had taken a young constable to a call, pulled up into a side area and sexually assaulted her, Babu, a former chief superintendent, claimed. “She was brave to report it. I wanted him sacked but he was protected by other officers and given a warning,” he said.

    Babu said the sergeant in question was allowed to serve until his retirement, while the woman decided to leave the force.

    The alleged incident happened around a decade ago, Babu said. He resigned in 2013 after being passed over for a promotion.

    Yet, despite many public moments of apparent reckoning since, the United Kingdom’s biggest police service continues to be rocked by allegations it’s doing little to ensure citizens are safe from some of its own staff.

    In the latest case, David Carrick, an officer from the same force, pleaded guilty to 49 offenses against 12 women over an 18-year period, including 24 counts of rape.

    Carrick’s admission, on January 16, came almost two years after the death of Sarah Everard, a young woman who was snatched from a London street by Wayne Couzens, another officer, who like Carrick, served with the country’s elite parliamentary and diplomatic protection unit. This part of the police is armed, unlike many other UK forces.

    Everard, 33, was raped and murdered before her body was dumped in woodland around 60 miles from London, in the neighboring county of Kent, where Couzens lived. It later emerged that her attacker had a history of sexual misconduct, just like Carrick, who was subject to multiple complaints before and during his 20-year police career – to no avail.

    Protesters placed 1,071 imitation rotten apples outside Scotland Yard, the Met Police headquarters, on Friday to highlight the same number of officers that have been placed under fresh review in 1,633 cases of sexual assault and violence against women and girls that were made over the past decade.

    Met Commissioner Mark Rowley apologized for the failings that led to Carrick not being caught earlier, in an interview distributed to UK broadcasters.

    Announcing a thorough review of all those employees facing red flags, he said: “I’m sorry and I know we’ve let women down. I think we failed over two decades to be as ruthless as we ought to be in guarding our own integrity.”

    Metropolitan Police Commissioner  Mark Rowley (center) pictured on January 5.

    On Friday evening, Rowley published a “turnaround plan” for reforming the Metropolitan Police, saying that he was “determined to win back Londoners’ trust.”

    Among his desired reforms over the next two years, he said in a statement, was the establishment of an anti-corruption and abuse command, being “relentlessly data driven” in delivery, and creating London’s “largest ever neighborhood police presence.”

    Yet Rowley has also bemoaned that he does not have the power to sack dangerous officers, thanks to the fact police can only be dismissed via lengthy special tribunals.

    Independent inquiries into the Met’s misconduct system have been scathing. A report last fall found that when a family member or a fellow officer filed a complaint, it took on average 400 days – more than an entire year – for an allegation of misconduct to be resolved.

    For Harriet Wistrich, a lawyer lobbying the government to give its existing inquiries into police misconduct statutory powers to better protect women, the issue of domestic abuse as a gateway towards other serious offenses cannot be overlooked.

    Wistrich’s Centre for Women’s Justice, a campaign group, first filed a so-called super-complaint in March 2019, highlighting how existing measures designed to protect domestic abuse victims in general were being misused by police, she said, from applications for restraining orders to the use of pre-charge bail.

    In the three years thereafter, as successive Covid lockdowns saw victims trapped at home with their abusers and prosecutions for such crimes plummeted, Wistrich says she noticed a trend of police officers’ partners contacting her.

    “We had been receiving a number of reports from women who were victims of police officers, usually victims of domestic abuse who didn’t have the confidence to report or if they did report felt that they were massively let down or victimized and sometimes subject to criminal action against them themselves for reporting,” Wistrich told CNN.

    Met Police officer David Carrick admitted to dozens of offenses against women, including 24 cases of rape.

    “Or (we saw) the police officer using his status within the family courts to undermine her access to her own children.” Wistrich said.

    “Certainly if anyone’s a victim of a police officer, they’re going to be extremely fearful of coming forward,” she added.

    Carrick’s history appears to confirm Wistrich’s point. He had repeatedly come to the police’s attention for domestic incidents, and would eventually admit behavior so depraved it involved locking a partner in a cupboard under the stairs at his house. When some of his victims tried to seek justice he abused his position to convince them that their word against that of a police officer would never be believed.

    Experts say the scale of his offending will further erode trust, particularly among women and as long as the public is unclear about how much risk lies within the ranks of Britain’s 43 police forces, tensions will simmer.

    Polling commissioned by a government watchdog, the Independent Office for Police Conduct, in the aftermath of Everard’s murder found fewer than half of UK citizens had a positive attitude towards the police. The head of that same body himself resigned last month amid an investigation into a historical allegation leveled against him. Other surveys since then have shown confidence has continued to plunge.

    Even Wistrich is downbeat on whether or not the police will carry out the reforms that are needed.

    Flowers laid for Sarah Everard.

    “Over the years we’ve had a series of blows to policing, around the policing of violence against women,” she said. “We’ve had the kind of collapse in rape prosecutions which has been an ongoing issue for a while and then we have had the emergence of this phenomenon of police perpetrated abuse.

    “But, you know, in a sense it’s amazing how much trust the police have managed to maintain from the general public despite all these stories. So I don’t know how long or how much of a major impact it will have,” she said, referring to Carrick’s recent guilty plea.

    For Patsy Stevenson, one run-in with the Met was enough to alter her life’s trajectory in an instant.

    After deciding to take part in a vigil attended by thousands to mark Everard’s death in March 2021, she was pinned to the ground and arrested by Met officers when they stormed the event on the grounds that pandemic rules in place at the time made large gatherings a health hazard and illegal.

    As a photograph of Stevenson went viral, her flame-red hair tossed about as she was forced to the ground screaming with her hands behind her back, she became both a symbol of militant feminism and the focus of toxic misogyny and death threats.

    A demonstrator holds a placard at the vigil for Sarah Everard.

    She failed the physics degree she was studying for and is now raising the hundreds of thousands of pounds she said is needed to sue the police for wrongful arrest and assault.

    In response to a question on Stevenson’s lawsuit, the Metropolitan Police told CNN: “We have received notification of a proposed civil claim and shall be making no further comment whilst the claim is ongoing.”

    But the fact that the Met Police’s vetting system allowed for men like Carrick and Couzens to remain on the force makes it clear that “the entire system from top to bottom isn’t working,” Stevenson said.

    “It feels like we’re all screaming out, can you just change before something like this happens? And now it’s happened again.”

    Both Babu, once the Met’s most senior Asian officer, and Stevenson, say the erosion of trust in British policing is not new. Indeed, trust has been declining for years, especially among minority ethnic groups, the LGBTQ+ community and other more vulnerable sections of society, whose treatment at the hands of rogue officers is often underreported in the public domain.

    In the days since Carrick last appeared in court, two retired policemen were charged with child sex offenses, and a third serving officer with access to schools was found dead the day that he was due to be charged with child pornography-related offenses.

    Four Met officers are facing a gross misconduct investigation after ordering the strip search of a 15-year-old girl in a south London school last year. A safeguarding report found the decision to search the girl was unlawful and likely motivated by racism. The head teacher of the school in question has now resigned.

    With the abduction and murder of Everard, a 33-year-old white professional woman, at the hands of an officer abusing his extra powers under Covid restrictions, and the sight of multiple young women, such as Stevenson, later manhandled by the Met under the same rules, fury at this trend of impunity burst forth among a larger swathe of the population.

    “This has been happening for years and years with minority groups,” Stevenson told CNN. “And only when someone of a certain color or a certain look was arrested in that manner, like myself, then certain people started to wake up to the idea of oh, hold on, this could happen to us.

    “I’ve had death threats since then. Who can I report that to? The police?” she asked.

    Yet Stevenson said up until her arrest she had always trusted the police.

    “I was the type of person to peek out the windows and see if there’s a domestic [incident] going on, let me call the police to sort it out,” she said. “Nowadays, if I was facing some sort of harassment or something in the street, I wouldn’t go to a police officer.”

    For Babu’s two adult daughters that’s also the case. Despite growing up with a police officer as a father, he says they have also lost faith in the force.

    “We talk about it often and, no, I don’t think they do trust the police,” he told CNN. “And let’s be clear this is also a reflection of a wider issue: the appalling failures in this country to deal with sexual violence perpetrated towards women in general.

    “I’m often worried about my daughters’ safety,” he said. “Whenever they go out, even now, I always ask them to text me to tell me they have made it home safely.”

    Everard never made it home that night in 2021 as she walked back from a friend’s house in south London, thanks to the criminal actions of a man hired to protect people like her, not prey on them.

    Until Britain’s police forces radically tackle the scale of possible injustice occurring on the inside, many women – and others – will rightfully be worried.

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