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  • Microsoft, CrowdStrike IT outage hits global supply chain, with air freight facing days or weeks to recover

    Microsoft, CrowdStrike IT outage hits global supply chain, with air freight facing days or weeks to recover

    A FedEx cargo plane.

    Leslie Josephs | CNBC

    The CrowdStrike software bug that crashed Microsoft operating systems and caused the largest IT outage in history caused disruptions at U.S. and global ports, with highly complex air freight systems suffering the heaviest hit, according to logistics experts, as global airlines grounded flights.

    “Planes and cargo are not where they are supposed to be and it will take days or even weeks to fully resolve,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at supply chain consulting firm Xeneta, said in a statement shared with CNBC. “This is a reminder of how vulnerable our ocean and air supply chains are to IT failure.” 

    Thousands of flights were grounded or delayed at the world’s largest air freight hubs in Europe, Asia and North America.

    The new issue for the global supply chain comes amid a rise in global demand, with shipments up 13% year-over-year in June. Air freight supply has increased, but only by 3% year-on-year, already causing higher costs for shippers due to the limited capacity, according to Xeneta. “Shippers already had concerns about air freight capacity due to huge increases in demand in 2024, driven largely by the extraordinary growth in e-commerce goods being exported from China to Europe and the U.S.,” van de Wouw said. “Available capacity in the market is already limited so airlines are going to struggle to move cargo tomorrow that should have been moved today.

    Pete Buttigieg, U.S. Secretary of Transportation, told CNBC on Friday morning that what the government is watching for over the course of the day, as the issue has been identified, is “the kind of ripple or cascade effects as they get everything back in their networks back to normal.”

    “These systems, these flights, they run so tightly, so back to back that even after a root cause has been addressed you can still feel those impacts throughout the day,” Buttigieg said.

    He said the FAA’s operational systems, like air traffic control or most systems within the U.S. Department of Transportation, as well as major urban transit systems, such as New York City’s MTA, were operating though there could be “spot” issues throughout the day. But “as far as the airlines themselves we are going to definitely be expecting more there,” he said.

    FedEx said in a statement that it has activated contingency plans, but added that “potential delays are possible for package deliveries” expected Friday.

    UPS said in a statement that computer systems in the U.S. and Europe were affected, but its airline continues to operate effectively, and drivers are on the roads delivering for customers. “We are continuing to work to resolve all issues as quickly as possible; there may be some service delays,” UPS stated.

    Ports, freight rails, report some issues, but normal operations

    Most rails and ports were faring better after some early morning disruptions.

    Only one major U.S. freight railroad reported issues related to the IT outage, with Union Pacific confirming in an email to CNBC that it had varying levels of impact across its network.

    “Our backup protocols enable us to communicate with our teams and dispatchers. We are doing everything possible to keep freight moving, but there have been some processing delays in customer shipments as we address targeted areas impacted on our network. We will continue to keep our stakeholders updated as we address the outage over the next 24 hours,” Union Pacific said in the emailed statement.

    Other major freight operators, including CSX, Norfolk Southern and BNSF, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway said their operations are not currently affected.

    Buttigieg said that at the ports, small issues can turn into a big issue, noting that even with ships and cranes operational, gates were affected, which meant the trucks couldn’t come in or out, which led to delays at certain ports, but they are “up and running and open for business today,” he added.

    The Port of Houston, the fifth-largest port in the U.S., said it experienced “major system outages” overnight, but said that all of its systems are now up and running with “minimal delay to operations.”

    The Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s largest port, confirmed to CNBC that one of its terminals, APM Terminals, was down temporarily, but came back up in the early morning. In an email to clients, APM, a subsidiary of Maersk, notified trucking clients that the port was “able to recover rather quickly,” and it restarted operations around 2 a.m. Any drivers not able to complete their pickups were told to contact the company’s import group so they could secure a new appointment to have a demurrage waiver for those containers.

    Mario Cordero, executive director of the Port of Long Beach, said there were minimal impacts to some of its terminals, but systems are up or in the process of being restored.

    The Port of New York and New Jersey reported a delay in the opening of two terminals, but within a few hours, the terminals were back up and running.

    “The Port Authority has been working closely with impacted terminal operators since the overnight hours, assisting in their recovery while also communicating updates through a multitude of channels to the port’s vast community of stakeholders,” said Bethann Rooney, port director at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. She said the port was able to initiate “a quick and efficient response to get cargo moving again.”

    All marine terminals were open by 8 a.m. The Port Authority agency was not impacted by the outage.

    Not all ports use systems that incorporate CrowdStrike software, with the Port of Savannah and the Port of Virginia both reporting “normal operations.”

    Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta senior shipping analyst, told CNBC that the IT outage has the potential to cause significant disruption at ports if ships are prevented from offloading and loading containers, and that can cascade through the supply chain.

    “There are also knock-on impacts across inland supply chains if truck and rail services are unable to pick up and drop off cargo at the port,” Stausbøll said.

    She noted that In May, Charleston Port on the U.S. East Coast shut for two days due to a software failure, which resulted in a port congestion increase of 200%. “Port congestion has been a major problem during 2024. While it is now easing, there is no slack in the system and any disruption will push the needle back into the red,” she said.

    Maritime intelligence company Kpler told CNBC early indications showed the global IT outage affecting operations at global ports including Poland’s Gdansk, and Dover, Felixstowe and Liverpool in the U.K.

    Rotterdam, the largest port in Europe, informed customers on its website of possible disruptions, but In an email to CNBC, a port spokesman said critical port operations of the Harbour Master Division and nautical service providers remain operational. “However, some companies in the port, including a container terminal, are experiencing issues due to the disruption and have adjusted their processes. They are working on a solution.”

    Matt Wright, senior freight analyst at Kpler, said the outage could lead to some delays at the affected ports, but with Microsoft and Crowdstrike reporting a fix being implemented, resumption of normal operations later today would mean it is unlikely to cause any significant backlog.

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  • Red Sea crisis boosts shipping costs, delays – and inflation worries

    Red Sea crisis boosts shipping costs, delays – and inflation worries

    The Maersk Sentosa container ship sails southbound to exit the Suez Canal in Suez, Egypt, on Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023.

    Stringer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue to push ocean freight rates higher, triggering warnings of inflation and delayed goods.

    To avoid strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen, carriers have already diverted more than $200 billion in trade over the past several weeks away from the crucial Middle East trade route, which, along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean.

    This has created a multiple-front storm for global trade, according to logistics managers: Freight rates increasing daily, additional surcharges, longer shipping times, and the threat that spring and summer products will be late due to vessels arriving late in China as they travel the long way around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

    “The supply chain pressures that caused the ‘transitory’ part of inflation in 2022 may be about to return if the problems in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean continue,” said Larry Lindsey, chief executive of global economic advisory firm the Lindsey Group. “Neither the Fed nor the ECB can do anything about them and will likely ‘look through’ the inflation they cause, potentially leading to rate cuts despite somewhat heightened inflation pressures.”

    The persistent violence against commercial ships drew a stern warning from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and nine other nations on Wednesday. “The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways,” the countries said in a joint statement.

    In the meantime, about 20% of vessel capacity isn’t being used due to a massive drop in manufacturing orders, according to industry experts. Instead, ocean carriers continue to cut their sailings while tight capacity and longer travel times are fueling rate increases.

    Rates for freight traveling from Asia to northern Europe more than doubled this week to above $4,000 per 40-foot-equivalent unit (container). Asia-Mediterranean prices climbed to $5,175 per container. Some carriers have announced rates above $6,000 per 40-foot container for Mediterranean shipments starting mid-month, with surcharges ranging from $500 to $2,700 per container.

    A cargo ship crosses the Suez Canal, one of the most critical human-made waterways, in Ismailia, Egypt on December 29, 2023. 

    Fareed Kotb | Anadolu | Getty Images

    “Given the sudden upward movement of ocean freight pricing, we should expect to see these higher costs trickle down the supply chain and impact consumers as we move through the first quarter,” said Alan Baer, CEO of shipping firm OL-USA. Companies, reflecting lessons they learned during the supply chain chaos of 2021-22, will adjust prices sooner rather than later, he added.

    Rates from Asia to North America’s East Coast have risen by 55% to $3,900 per 40-foot container. West Coast prices climbed 63% to more than $2,700. More shippers are expected to start avoiding the East Coast and favor the West Coast ports. Likewise, rates are on track to rise again starting Jan. 15 due to previously announced increases.

    “This is a big deal as it’s been mostly the fall in goods prices that have eased the inflation strain,” Peter Boockvar, investment chief at Bleakly Financial Group, told CNBC. “And while the battles going on in the Red Sea could end at any moment if the war in Gaza ends, it’s a reminder to the Fed that they can’t get complacent with their inflation fight if they don’t want to repeat the 1970s.”

    The impact of longer routes

    Diversions from Egypt’s Suez Canal, which feeds into the Red Sea, are hurting capacity. Rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope adds two to four weeks to a round-trip voyage, according to Honour Lane Shipping (HLS). Ocean alliances need more ships on each Asia-East Coast route to maintain an efficient network schedule.

    “Some 25%-30% of global container shipping volumes pass through the Suez Canal (mainly on Asia-Europe trade), and it is estimated that widespread re-routing around Africa could reduce effective global container shipping capacity by 10%-15%,” said the note. “While the disruption continues, carriers may have to reduce the number of port calls to offset the impact of longer routes.”

    A grab from handout footage released by Yemen’s Huthi Ansarullah Media Centre on November 19, 2023, reportedly shows members of the rebel group during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel at an undefined location in the Red Sea. Israeli ships are a “legitimate target”, Yemen’s Huthi rebels warned on November 20, a day after their seizure of the Galaxy Leader and its 25 international crew following an earlier threat to target Israeli shipping over the Israel-Hamas war. 

    – | Afp | Getty Images

    The longer travel time could also delay the arrival of spring goods that are traditionally picked up before the Chinese Lunar New Year, set for February, when factories close and employees go on vacation. Containers that were supposed to arrive on the East Coast in December are arriving now, according to logistics managers. Items include spring and summer clothing, pools, pool supplies, Easter products, patio furniture, and home and garden products.

    North American East Coast ports in December, amid the Houthi attacks, “lost” several calls, which were instead pushed into January, according to data from maritime intelligence firm eeSEA. The vessels will instead arrive in January and February.

    So vessels are not only late in dropping off their containers to their final destinations, they’re also late getting back to Asia to load containers. As a result, HLS is urging clients to book their container space four to five weeks in advance to secure a spot.

    It’s reminiscent of what freight companies experienced during Covid’s earlier days.

    “We used to book out four to six weeks out during Covid,” said OL-USA’s Baer. “During Covid, we had way too much cargo, and all the ships were full, so you have to forecast your bookings out. Now while there is vessel capacity, the vessels are late, so it’s a scramble to make sure you get your container on that vessel.”

    Ocean carriers are also expanding land-freight services for those using West Coast ports intead of the East Coast. This is a similar strategy deployed by Hapag-Lloyd during Covid, when it offered clients service across land to the West Coast from the East Coast because it was faster.

    These diversions in trade will create opportunities for West Coast railroad companies, Union Pacific and BNSF, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway. The extra containers will also be a boost for trucking companies that also service those ports.

    “Coming out of the holiday break we are seeing significant volumes being routed from Asia to the U.S. West Coast and via the Panama Canal to the U.S. East Coast to avoid the Suez Canal,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics. “We are forecasting this activity to increase as we get closer to the Lunar New Year peak season.”

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  • The top 10 things to watch in the stock market Friday

    The top 10 things to watch in the stock market Friday

    The top 10 things to watch Friday, Oct. 20

    1. Will the yield on the 10-year Treasury breach 5% Friday, and how will markets react? U.S. stocks are down in premarket trading, with S&P 500 futures falling 0.27%, potentially leading to another disappointing week for equities. Stocks have been held back by high bond yields and strengthening oil prices.

    2. American Express (AXP) reports a big third-quarter earnings beat Friday, with earnings-per-share (EPS) of $3.30, ahead of analysts’ forecasts for $2.94 a share. Revenue climbs by 13%, boosted by travel-and-entertainment spending. Millennial and Gen-Z spending rises by 18% in the U.S.

    3. Oilfield services firm Schlumberger (SLB) misses slightly on revenue expectations for the third quarter, but beats adjusted EPS estimates by a penny. The company has reported nine-consecutive quarters of double-digit, year-over-year growth in its international business, and expects sequential revenue growth in the fourth quarter.

    4. UBS assumes coverage on a handful of drug stocks, including Club name Eli Lilly (LLY). The bank designates Eli Lilly a buy, with a price target of $710 a share, saying it expects “meaningful upward revisions” for diabetes-and-obesity treatment Mounjaro.

    5. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) reports a mixed quarter, as the company continues to see pressure on its bariatrics business due to the rise in GLP-1 obesity drugs. This used to be the company’s largest source of procedure growth.

    6. General Motors (GM) is reportedly close to reaching a tentative agreement with the United Auto Workers union that would resolve a month-long strike, which has also engulfed Club name Ford Motor (F) and Stellantis NV (STLA), according to Bloomberg.

    7. Deutsche Bank upgrades Union Pacific (UNP) to a buy rating, while slightly raising its price target to $258 a share, up from $257. The firm cites improving U.S. rail volumes and increasing confidence around new CEO Jim Vena.

    8. Wolfe Research upgrades Club holding Morgan Stanley (MS) to a neutral-equivalent rating from underperform, without a price target. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s post-earnings sell-off of the bank stock was an overreaction.

    9. JPMorgan reiterates Club holding Amazon (AMZN) as its best idea in the internet sector on the expectation that revenue growth at cloud unit Amazon Web Services will accelerate in the second half of this year, while North American retail margins expand.

    10. Goldman Sachs lowers its price target on Club name Walt Disney (DIS) to $125 a share, down from $128, while maintaining a buy rating on the stock. The firm asks: is the stock is now at the point of peak uncertainty?

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  • Canadian West Coast port workers vote yes to ratify a tentative deal. Railroad congestion continues

    Canadian West Coast port workers vote yes to ratify a tentative deal. Railroad congestion continues

    Shipping containers are loaded onto rail cars at the Global Container Terminals Vanterm container terminal on Vancouver Harbour in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) of Canada voted to ratify the second tentative agreement with West Coast port ownership, meaning an end to the uncertainty and trade congestion that has gripped the supply chain for weeks since dock workers first decided to strike.

    Rob Ashton, president of the ILWU, said 74.66% of members voted in favor of accepting the terms of the tentative agreement.

    The ILWU Canada and the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) announced a revised second tentative deal last Sunday, with the agreement brokered by the Canada Industrial Relations Board, after union members rejected an original deal proposal. The country’s industrial relations board directed the union to vote no later than Friday.

    The new deal includes increases in wages, benefits, and training, according to an overnight statement by the BCMEA. No additional specifics were given.

    The original deal proposal which was rejected increased the compounded wage over four years by 19.2%, according to disclosures from the BCMEA, as well as a signing bonus of $1.48 an hour per employee, which tallied to approximately $3,000 per full-time worker. There was also an 18.5% increase in the retirement payout.

    The union argued that worker salaries were unsustainable against rising inflation, but the BCMEA countered that over the past 13 years, longshore wages have risen by 40%, ahead of inflation at 30%. The union said that the use of contract labor for maintenance work was another sticking point in the deal.

    The BCMEA said the ratification would provide “certainty and stability for the future of Canada’s West Coast ports.”

    “The BCMEA recognizes and regrets the profound repercussions this labor disruption has had on the national economy, workers, businesses and ultimately, all Canadians that depend on an efficient and reliable supply chain. All supply chain stakeholders must collaborate now to ensure we do not see disruptions like this ever again.”

    But, after a week of traveling and meeting shipping clients, Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage at ITS Logistics, told CNBC the reliability and reputation of the Canadian ports have created lasting damage.

    “We are happy that the ILWU has finally come to terms and agreed to a new contract,” said Brashier. “Unfortunately, this lack of government intervention and direction has forced cargo owners and shippers in our network to make the decision and permanently move their imports back to the U.S. port of entry on the West Coast.”

    Over the course of the 14-day strike, ocean carriers either pulled up anchor to divert the Canadian ports to stay on schedule and unload at U.S. ports. Some U.S. shippers reconsigned the destination of their containers to the U.S during that time. Other ocean carriers eventually went back to the Canadian ports and waited to unload both Canadian and U.S. freight.

    Canadian Labor Minister Seamus O’Regan tweeted acknowledgment of the supply chain damage the strikes caused and is now calling on federal officials to review how the disruption of this magnitude unfolded so it can be avoided in the future.

    Supply chain delays will last months

    It will take at least two months for the railroads to clear out the pileup of containers as a result of the 14 days of striking by dock workers. At the height of the strike, $12 billion in freight was stranded on the water. Some of that trade was diverted on vessels that called on ports on the U.S. West Coast.

    The Railway Association of Canada originally estimated that it would take three to five days, for every day the strike lasted, for networks and supply chains to recover. When the first strike ended on its 13th day, delays for rail containers were estimated at 39 to 66 days. After an additional day of work stoppage in the on-again, off-again strike, the congestion tally moved up to a range of 42 to 70 days.

    “Delays appear to be bearing out toward the mid-to-upper end of that range,” a Railway Association of Canada spokesperson recently told CNBC via email.

    Changes to vessel routes impact the profitability of railroads, including Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National Railway, since fewer containers can be unloaded at U.S. ports. This decrease in containers also impacts trucking companies. On the flip side, the extra containers coming into U.S. ports will add to the profitability of U.S. trucking companies and railroads BNSF, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, and Union Pacific. Over the long term, if Canadian trade is rerouted to the East Coast as a result of West Coast labor strife, that would also benefit Norfolk Southern and CSX.

    In the first two weeks of the strike, the flow of railroad trade from Canada to the U.S. was cut by 82%. Train trade has slowly recovered, with a 6.2% decrease being tabulated for the week ending July 29.

    The supply chain issues have already hit the bottom lines of railroad companies. Canadian Pacific Kansas City railroad’s chief marketing officer John Brooks told analysts on the company’s conference call last week the labor unrest will negatively impact the railroad’s revenue by $80 million. Brooks said the company is working to claw back those losses over the third and fourth quarters.

    Canadian National Railway announced it was running additional trains to help expedite the clearing out of the container congestion.

    The timing of this strike occurred during the peak shipping season, when back-to-school and holiday items are arriving for retailers.

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  • Stocks making the biggest midday moves: Microsoft, Alphabet, Boeing and more

    Stocks making the biggest midday moves: Microsoft, Alphabet, Boeing and more

    A GE AC4400CW diesel-electric locomotive in Union Pacific livery is seen near Union Station in Los Angeles, California, September 15, 2022.

    Bing Guan | Reuters

    Here are the stocks making headlines on Wednesday, July 26.

    Microsoft — The Xbox owner saw its shares slide 4% after issuing quarterly revenue guidance that fell short of analysts’ expectations. The soft revenue outlook was partly due to weakness in the segment that contains Windows software. Microsoft did report earnings and revenue that beat Street estimates for the calendar second quarter, however.

    Alphabet — Shares of the Google parent rose more than 6% after Alphabet beat analysts’ revenue and profit in the second quarter. The parent company of YouTube reported $1.44 in earnings per share on $74.6 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $1.34 per share on $72.82 billion of revenue.

    Boeing — The aerospace company’s shares jumped almost 6% and hit a new 52-week high after its second-quarter earnings announcement. Boeing’s revenue of $19.75 billion topped analysts’ estimates of $18.45 billion, according to Refinitiv. The company also reported an 82-cent-loss per share, while Refinitiv analysts had estimated a loss of 88 cents per share.

    WW International — Shares of the weight loss company soared more than 18% after an upgrade to overweight from Morgan Stanley. The bank highlighted WW International’s recent acquisition of Sequence, which analyst Lauren Schenk said will aid growth by providing exposure to weight loss drugs.

    Texas Instruments — Shares dropped 5% as investors focused on the company’s guidance for the current quarter. Texas Instruments said to expect between $1.68 and $1.92 in earnings per share in the current quarter, meaning much of the range was below the $1.91 estimate of analysts polled by FactSet. Meanwhile, the company guided revenue to between $4.36 billion and $4.74 billion against a FactSet consensus estimate of $4.59 billion. However, the company’s second quarter results exceeded analysts’ expectations.

    Visa — The credit card stock slipped more than 1% despite Visa beating estimates for its fiscal third quarter. The company reported $2.16 in adjusted earnings per share on $8.12 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were looking for $2.12 in earnings per share on $8.06 billion of revenue. The company did report that payments volume growth was slowing slightly.

    Chubb — Shares of the insurance company jumped more than 5% after a stronger-than-expected second-quarter report. The company posted $4.92 in adjusted earnings per share, above the $4.41 expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. The net premiums written for property and casualty lines came in at $10.68 billion, above estimates of $10.64 billion.

    Spotify — The music streaming company’s shares gained 3.2% Wednesday. Shares closed 14% lower Tuesday after Spotify’s second-quarter results missed analysts’ expectations. Deutsche Bank wrote in a Wednesday note that the post-earnings selloff created an attractive entry point for investors.

    PacWest – Shares of the community bank surged more than 27% afterit agreed to be acquired by Banc of California in all-stock deal, which includes $400 million in equity from Warburg Pincus and Centerbridge. The combined holding company will operate under the Banc of California name. Shares of Banc of California rose less than 1%.

    Union Pacific – The railroad operator saw its shares jump 10% after it named Jim Vena its new CEO. The announcement overshadowed its second-quarter results, which missed estimates. The Omaha-based company reported $2.54 in adjusted earnings per share on $5.96 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv had penciled in $2.75 per share and $6.12 billion. Union Pacific blamed softening consumer markets, inflation, a one-time labor expense and increased workforce levels but said resource levels were more aligned with demand to finish the quarter.

    Robert Half — Shares of the staffing consulting firm tumbled more than 5% after Robert Half reported disappointing second-quarter results. The firm reported $1.00 in earnings per share on $1.64 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $1.14 per share and $1.69 billion of revenue.

    General Dynamics — The defense contractor climbed 3% after General Dynamics reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. The company logged $2.70 in earnings per share on $10.15 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv had estimated $2.56 in earnings per share on $9.46 billion of revenue.

    CoStar Group — Shares of the commercial real estate company slid 7.4% after reporting lighter-than-expected revenue for the second quarter, and softer guidance for the third quarter. CoStar said it generated $605.9 million in revenue during the second quarter and expected between $622 and $627 million in the third. Analysts estimated $607.3 million and $623.4 million for those respective periods, according to FactSet’s StreetAccount.

    KeyCorp — Shares of the Cleveland-based regional bank jumped more than 7%. Regional bank stocks moved broadly higher after the deal between Banc of California and PacWest.

    — CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans, Yun Li, Tanaya Macheel, Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed reporting.

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  • Inflation’s inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy: CNBC Supply Chain Survey

    Inflation’s inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy: CNBC Supply Chain Survey

    CHRIS J RATCLIFFE | AFP | Getty Images

    Bloated warehouse inventories are an expensive pressure eating away at the bottom line of many companies, and for many, the excess supply and associated costs of storage won’t abate this year, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey.

    Just over one-third (36%) said they expect inventories to return to normal in the second half of this year, with an equal percentage expecting the gluts to last into 2024 — 21% saying a return to normal can occur in the first half of the year, and another 15% expecting normal activity by the first half of 2024. But uncertainty about inventory management is significant, with almost one-quarter (23%) of supply chain managers saying they are not sure when gluts will be worked off.

    “We don’t expect significant decreases in inventory levels within our network in 2023,” said Paul Harris, vice president of operations for WarehouseQuote. “Several of our manufacturing clients are experiencing dead/bloated inventory challenges due to over-ordering in the container grid-lock from prior quarters. A majority have elected to keep the inventory on hand and are opposed to liquidating.

    A total of 90 logistics managers representing the American Apparel and Footwear Association, ITS Logistics, WarehouseQuote, and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, or CSCMP, participated in the survey between March 3-21 to provide information on their current inventories and the biggest inflationary pressures they are facing, and often passing on to the consumer.

    What’s sitting in warehouses, and what companies are doing about it

    Logistics experts tell CNBC that 20% of their excess inventory sitting in warehouses is not seasonable in product nature. Slightly more than half of survey participants said they would keep the items in warehouses. But a little over one-quarter (27%) said they are selling on the secondary market because inventories impact a company’s bottom line through elevated storage prices.

    Harris told CNBC many clients with perishable goods are selling them on secondary markets to avoid destroying products. “However, if a secondary market is not an option, they are forced to destroy the product,” he said. “If it’s a consumable, they are donating the goods to take tax deductions.”

    Investors are worried about the earnings and margin trends and expect Wall Street to revise estimates lower. The supply chain pressures will be among the factors that weigh on quarterly numbers.

    “Inventory carrying costs continue to rise, driven by inflationary pressures and late shipments,” said Mark Baxa, CEO of CSCMP. “This means that with every day that passes, three things are happening … growing sales risk, margin pressure, and D&O [deteriorated and/or obsolete].”

    Almost half surveyed said the biggest inflationary pressures they are paying are warehouse costs, followed by the “other” category, which includes rent and labor.

    ITS Logistics told CNBC that many clients across industries have been using ocean containers, rail containers and 53-foot trailers for storage because distribution centers were full.

    “These charges will start materializing in Q2 or Q3 financial results,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics.

    The survey found 50% of respondents saying the average length of time they are using ocean containers for storage is over four months.

    “We are seeing similar trends in our data and ecosystem,” Brashier said.

    More inflation costs going to the consumer

    Traditionally, warehousing costs and the associated labor costs are passed on to the consumer, increasing or sustaining the price of a product. Nearly half (44%) of survey respondents said they are passing on at least half of their increased costs, if not more, to consumers.

    “It’s clear that supply chain challenges and all their associated costs continue to stir inflationary pressures,” said Stephen Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association. “Given ongoing inventory concerns and the fragile nature of our logistics system, there are other pressures and uncertainty.”

    His group is calling for West Coast port labor negotiations to be quickly finalized and for the government to “aggressively remove other cost pressures,” a reference to Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, which he said continue to make supply chains more expensive.

    Manufacturing orders and the economic outlook

    Recent data on manufacturing has shown a deterioration in the economy, with the ISM Manufacturing index in contraction level based on March data released this week. The U.S. services sector slipped closer to contraction in March, according to the ISM Services Index, with sharp declines in new orders, exports and price.

    Looking at the health of manufacturing orders for the next three months, 40% of logistics managers surveyed said they are not cutting orders, while a little under one-fifth (18%) said they are cutting orders by 30%.

    Inventory levels and consumer consumption are two factors influencing manufacturing orders.

    These orders help gauge China GDP as it reopens from its strict Covid protocols, since the country relies on manufacturing and trade for its economic growth.

    FreightWaves SONAR intelligence shows a slight uptick in ocean freight orders and recovery from the massive drop ahead of Lunar New Year, but the longer trend line remains a decrease in ocean bookings.

    The inventory glut is affecting trucking logistics in multiple ways. Not only are trucks moving fewer containers from the ports, they are also moving less from the warehouses to the retail stores. Data from Motive, which tracks trucking visits to North American distribution facilities for the top five retailers by volume, shows a drop in truck visits from warehouses.

    “The decline in visits to retail warehouses indicates weakness in consumer demand, but surprisingly may also be a sign of recovery in the supply chain,” said Shoaib Makani, founder and CEO of Motive. “With lead times to replenish inventory reduced from 2021 and 2022 highs, retailers are burning off existing inventories with the confidence that they will be able to replenish quickly.”

    Even with orders increasing, the inventory headwinds are a source of concern for logistics experts.

    “This survey confirms that we remain in an era of serious supply chain cost-to-serve challenges,” Baxa said. “Warehousing costs are contributing to these challenges that shippers are facing today and on the road ahead.”

    FreightWaves and ITS Logistics are CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data providers.

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  • Union Pacific says it expects to name a new CEO in 2023 after hedge fund called for Lance Fritz to be replaced

    Union Pacific says it expects to name a new CEO in 2023 after hedge fund called for Lance Fritz to be replaced

    A GE AC4400CW diesel-electric locomotive in Union Pacific livery is seen near Union Station in Los Angeles, California, September 15, 2022.

    Bing Guan | Reuters

    U.S. railroad Union Pacific on Sunday said it expects to name a successor to assume the position of chief executive officer replacing Lance Fritz in 2023.

    “Union Pacific has been my home for 22 years and I am confident that now is the right time for Union Pacific’s next leader to take the helm. I look forward to working with the Board as we identify our next CEO to lead the Company into the future,” Fritz said in a statement.

    The announcement comes after U.S. hedge fund Soroban Capital Partners in a letter on Sunday called for Fritz to be replaced.

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  • Senate passes bill to prevent rail strike, rejects measure providing paid sick leave

    Senate passes bill to prevent rail strike, rejects measure providing paid sick leave

    The U.S. Senate on Thursday voted 80-15 in favor of a bill that would prevent a rail strike by imposing a deal on freight-rail workers, after rejecting a separate House-passed measure that would require rail companies to provide those workers with seven days of paid sick leave per year.

    The vote for the bill imposing a deal keeps Washington on track to block a strike, as the House of Representatives passed it Wednesday. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the legislation into law given that he called on Monday for Congress to act.

    Business groups have been warning that even a short-term strike would have a tremendous impact and cause economic pain.

    The deal that would be imposed on rail employees includes a 24% increase in wages from 2020 through 2024, but workers have remained concerned about a lack of paid sick time.

    In the vote on sick leave, there were 52 senators in favor, while 43 were opposed, and 60 votes for it were needed. A half dozen Republican senators were in favor, while Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the only Democrat in opposition.

    “While I am sympathetic to the concerns union members have raised, I do not believe it is the role of Congress to renegotiate a collective bargaining agreement that has already been negotiated,” Manchin said in a statement

    Earlier Thursday, the Senate also voted against an amendment from Republican senators that aimed to deliver a cooling-off period so talks between rail companies and their workers could continue.

    Railroad operators’ stocks finished with gains Tuesday as traders reacted to Washington’s moves to prevent a strike, but Norfolk Southern Corp.
    NSC,
    -0.05%
    ,
     CSX Corp. 
    CSX,
    -0.03%

    and Union Pacific Corp.
    UNP,
    -0.69%

    all lost ground Thursday as the broad market
    SPX,
    -0.09%

    DJIA,
    -0.56%

    closed mostly lower.

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  • ‘A rail shutdown would devastate our economy’: Biden urges Congress to head off potential strike

    ‘A rail shutdown would devastate our economy’: Biden urges Congress to head off potential strike

    OMAHA, Neb. — President Joe Biden on Monday asked Congress to intervene and block a railroad strike before next month’s deadline in the stalled contract talks, following pressure by business groups on the stalled negotiations.

    “Let me be clear: a rail shutdown would devastate our economy,” Biden said in a statement. “Without freight rail, many U.S. industries would shut down.”

    Congress has the power to impose contract terms on the workers, but it’s not clear what lawmakers might include if they do. They could also force the negotiations to continue into the new year.

    Both the unions and railroads have been lobbying Congress while contract talks continue. Four rail unions that represent more than half of the 115,000 workers in the industry have rejected the deals that Biden helped broker before the original strike deadline in September and are back at the table trying to work out new agreements. Eight other unions have approved their five-year deals with the railroads and are in the process of getting back pay for their workers for the 24% raises that are retroactive to 2020.

    Biden said that as a “a proud pro-labor president” he was reluctant to override the views of people who voted against the agreement. “But in this case — where the economic impact of a shutdown would hurt millions of other working people and families — I believe Congress must use its powers to adopt this deal.”

    Biden’s remarks came after a coalition of more than 400 business groups sent a letter to congressional leaders Monday urging them to step into the stalled talks because of fears about the devastating potential impact of a strike that could force many businesses to shut down if they can’t get the rail deliveries they need. Commuter railroads and Amtrak would also be affected in a strike because many of them use tracks owned by the freight railroads.

    The business groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers and National Retail Federation said even a short-term strike would have a tremendous impact and the economic pain would start to be felt even before the Dec. 9 strike deadline. They said the railroads would stop hauling hazardous chemicals, fertilizers and perishable goods up to a week beforehand to keep those products from being stranded somewhere along the tracks.

    “A potential rail strike only adds to the headwinds facing the U.S. economy,” the businesses wrote. “A rail stoppage would immediately lead to supply shortages and higher prices. The cessation of Amtrak and commuter rail services would disrupt up to 7 million travelers a day. Many businesses would see their sales disrupted right in the middle of the critical holiday shopping season.”

    A similar group of businesses sent another letter to Biden last month urging him to play a more active role in resolving the contract dispute.

    On Monday, the Association of American Railroads trade group praised Biden’s action.

    “No one benefits from a rail work stoppage — not our customers, not rail employees and not the American economy,” said AAR President and CEO Ian Jefferies. “Now is the appropriate time for Congress to pass legislation to implement the agreements already ratified by eight of the twelve unions.”

    Congressional leaders and the White House have said they are monitoring the contract talks closely but haven’t indicated when they might act or what they will do. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said leaders are aware of the situation with the rail negotiations and will monitor the talks in the coming days.

    Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., said on “Fox News Sunday” that congressional intervention is a last resort but that lawmakers will have to be ready to act.

    “Congress will not let this strike happen. That’s for sure,” said Fitzpatrick, who helps lead a bipartisan group of 58 lawmakers. “It would be devastating to our economy. So, we’ll get to a resolution one way or another.”

    “It certainly could end up in Congress’ lap, which is why we are headed to D.C. this week to meet with lawmakers on the Hill from both parties,” said Clark Ballew, a spokesman for the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division, which represents track maintenance workers. “We have instructed our members to contact their federal lawmakers in the House and Senate for several weeks now.”

    The unions have asked the railroads to consider adding paid sick time to what they already offered to address some of workers’ quality of life concerns. But so far, the railroads, which include Union Pacific
    UNP,
    -2.25%
    ,
    Berkshire Hathaway’s
    BRK.B,
    -1.31%

    BNSF, Norfolk Southern
    NSC,
    -1.49%
    ,
    CSX
    CSX,
    -1.00%

    and Canadian Pacific’s
    CP,
    -1.26%

    Kansas City Southern, have refused to consider that.

    The railroads want any deal to closely follow the recommendations a special board of arbitrators that Biden appointed made this summer that called for the 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses but didn’t resolve workers’ concerns about demanding schedules that make it hard to take a day off and other working conditions.

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  • Railroads reject sick time demands, raising chance of strike

    Railroads reject sick time demands, raising chance of strike

    OMAHA, Neb. — The major freight railroads appear unwilling to give track maintenance workers much more than they received in the initial contract they rejected last week, increasing the chances of a strike.

    The railroads took the unusual step of issuing a statement late Wednesday rejecting the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division union’s latest request to add paid sick time on top of the 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses they received in the first five-year deal.

    Union Pacific CEO Lance Fritz said Thursday that he thinks the main reason the BMWED rejected its initial contract last week was that the details of improved expense reimbursement in the deal were still being negotiated at UP while workers were voting. So it wasn’t clear exactly what those workers would receive for their travel expenses when they go on the road to repair tracks.

    Six of the 12 railroad unions that represent 115,000 workers nationwide have approved their tentative agreements with the railroads so far, but all of them have to ratify their contracts to avoid a strike. The unions have agreed to put any strike on hold until at least mid-November while the BMWED negotiates a new deal and the other unions vote on their proposed contracts, so there’s no immediate threat the the trains most businesses rely on to deliver their raw materials and finished products will stop moving. A railroad strike could devastate the economy.

    “Ultimately, I remain confident that we’re going to get our temporary agreements ratified and be able to avoid a strike. That’s still a possibility but I don’t think it’s a probability,” Fritz told investors after his railroad released its earnings report.

    The group that negotiations on behalf of the major railroads, including UP, BNSF, Norfolk Southern, CSX and Kansas City Southern, said the new contracts should closely follow the recommendations of the special board of arbitrators that President Joe Biden appointed this summer. The railroads said that board rejected union demands for paid sick time.

    “Now is not the time to introduce new demands that rekindle the prospect of a railroad strike,” the railroads said.

    Officials at the BMWED union didn’t immediately respond to the railroads Thursday. Concerns about quality of life and the ability for workers — particularly the engineers and conductors who drive the trains — to take time off without being penalized have weighed heavily on the negotiations.

    But the railroads say workers do have significant short-term disability benefits that kick in after four or seven days and last up to 52 weeks that the unions have negotiated for over the years. The railroads said the unions have repeatedly agreed that short-term absences would be unpaid in favor of higher wages and more generous benefits for long-term illnesses.

    If both sides can’t agree on contracts, Congress could step in to block a strike and impose terms on the workers.

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  • Large rail union rejects deal, renewing strike possibility

    Large rail union rejects deal, renewing strike possibility

    OMAHA, Neb. — The U.S.’s third largest railroad union rejected a deal with employers Monday, renewing the possibility of a strike that could cripple the economy. B oth sides will return to the bargaining table before that happens.

    Over half of track maintenance workers represented by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division who voted opposed the five-year contract despite 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses. Union President Tony Cardwell said the railroads didn’t do enough to address the lack of paid time off — particularly sick time — and working conditions after the major railroads eliminated nearly one-third of their jobs over the past six years.

    “Railroaders are discouraged and upset with working conditions and compensation and hold their employer in low regard. Railroaders do not feel valued,” Cardwell said in a statement. “They resent the fact that management holds no regard for their quality of life, illustrated by their stubborn reluctance to provide a higher quantity of paid time off, especially for sickness.”

    The group that represents the railroads in negotiations said they were disappointed the union rejected the agreement, but emphasized that no immediate threat of a strike exists because the union agreed to keep working for now.

    Four other railroad unions have approved their agreements with freight railroads including BNSF, Union Pacific, Kansas City Southern, CSX and Norfolk Southern, but all 12 unions representing 115,000 workers must ratify their contracts to prevent a strike. Another union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, initially rejected its deal but has since renegotiated a new contract. Voting will be completed in mid-November.

    President Joe Biden pressured the railroads and unions to reach a deal last month ahead of a mid-September deadline to allow a strike or walkout. Many businesses also urged Congress to be ready to intervene in the dispute and block a strike if an agreement wasn’t reached because so many companies rely on railroads to deliver their raw materials and finished products.

    In general, the deals the unions agreed to closely follow the recommendations a special panel of arbitrators that Biden appointed made this summer. That Presidential Emergency Board recommended what would be the biggest raises rail workers have seen in more than four decades, but it didn’t resolve the unions’ concerns about working conditions. Instead it said the unions should pursue additional negotiations or arbitration that can take years with each railroad individually.

    The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way union said it agreed to delay any strike until five days after Congress reconvenes in mid November to allow time for additional negotiations.

    Quality of life issues took center stage at the end of these negotiations, with unions representing conductors and engineers holding out until the end for three unpaid leave days a year for medical appointments and a promise that railroads will negotiate further about giving those employees regularly scheduled days off when they aren’t on call. Engineers and conductors have complained that strict attendance policies make it hard to take any time off.

    Track maintenance workers in the BMWED generally have more regular schedules than engineers and conductors, but all the rail unions have objected to the lack of paid sick time in the industry — particularly after working to keep trains moving throughout the pandemic.

    Rutgers University professor Todd Vachon, who teaches labor relations classes, said he’s not entirely surprised the contract was rejected given how emboldened union members feel to fight for better working conditions amidst the current worker shortage.

    “The biggest sticking issue is quality of life — especially access to paid time off and paid sick time. If the railroads can make some movement in that area, it will likely go a long way with rail workers who currently feel they are not being respected by their employers,” Vachon said. “Wages and resource allocation are one important part of contract negotiations, but feeling respected by one’s employer remains one of the top reasons that workers form and join unions.”

    Although a strike is now possible, Vachon said he’s not too worried yet because both sides have more than a month to reach a new agreement.

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