We are living through one of the most volatile periods in modern business. Global uncertainty has nearly doubled since the mid-1990s, and the tech sector feels this turbulence more acutely, with top tech companies having experienced 40% higher churn from 2000–2023 than other industries.
Executives today face disruption from every angle: generative AI reshaping business models overnight, shifting regulations, geopolitical tensions fragmenting markets, and intense competition for talent. Anxiety is widespread—but uncertainty reveals more about leadership than stability ever could.
The companies thriving through uncertainty aren’t those with perfect foresight. They’re the ones that practiced navigating volatility before the storm hits—building organizational muscle memory that transforms disruption into competitive advantage.
Map talent to value creation
In volatile times, the difference between thriving and surviving comes down to whether your best people are positioned to drive the most value.
Most executives focus on C-suite talent allocation, but true competitive advantage lives in the team leads, product managers, and engineers doing the hands-on work. These are the roles where decisions get made hundreds of times per day—where product features get prioritized, customer problems get solved, and code gets deployed.
When the landscape shifts, you need your strongest players closest to the action. I’ve watched companies lose ground not because their strategy was wrong, but because their best execution talent was trapped in legacy projects while competitors moved faster.
The companies getting this right are ruthless about talent reallocation. When market conditions shift, they move their strongest teams to the opportunities that matter most, rather than waiting for annual planning cycles.
A client of mine is going through a rough patch right now. He is an executive for a global manufacturing company. His role requires coordinating resources and teams across the world, with a workload that tripled within two weeks. This means his travel has tripled as well, and he finds himself living out of a suitcase and staying up until 1 a.m. processing invoices and expense reports.
This is all against the backdrop of uncertainty most high-level executives and entrepreneurs today can relate to. Reacting to constantly changing tariffs, for example, which requires daily pivots to different suppliers and increased costs. Or difficulty finding the right talent for the right roles, and figuring out how AI fits into everything.
“It’s like drinking through a firehose,” my client explained.
It may seem impossible to avoid burnout during this time, let alone to keep leading at a high level. How do you stay consistent when the world around you is anything but? Leading through uncertainty means throwing out the old leadership playbook and embracing flexibility instead. Here are six principles to put in your new adaptable-leadership playbook.
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1. Stop predicting and start adapting.
The current moment is proving that making predictions is not a good use of energy or resources. So how do you plan for the unexpected? Start by shifting strategic planning from an annual event to a quarterly check-in. This will allow you and your team to change plans more easily. Build adaptability into your systems by running small experiments with a closed feedback loop. Utilize that in place of giant, system-wide initiatives that are difficult to adjust at a moment’s notice.
2. Prioritize ruthlessly.
Like my client, many leaders I coach have been managing reactively, putting out fires every day. This causes everything to feel like a priority, and it’s difficult to focus on what’s important through all the haze and smoke. When confronted with a task, email, call, or so-called “emergency,” ask yourself, “What if I just stopped doing this?” Sometimes, the answer is “nothing.”
To help narrow down what doesn’t need your time and attention right now, identify three initiatives that are consuming time and resources while delivering little to no impact. Then either put them on pause, or stop them entirely.
Think of your workload as a garden. What are the dry weeds that can easily catch fire? What are the plants that hold water in their leaves and inhibit fires?
3. Build coalitions, not consensus.
When things change quickly, you can’t wait for consensus. By the time everyone weighs in on a decision, things have probably changed again. Instead, aim for alignment on vision, values, and mission—the things that remain steady through turbulent times. Give your people the autonomy to act within those boundaries.
Be clear on non-negotiables…and then, get out of the way. Your team will feel empowered, and you’ll be able to clear a bit of your inbox, calendar, and mental load.
4. Use AI intelligently.
Think of AI as a support partner that never needs time off. Use AI tools to handle routine, low-judgment tasks that can drain you of time and energy, such as reports, expense tracking, and scheduling. This can free you and your team to focus on tasks that are often rejuvenating—things that require creativity, relationship-building, and problem-solving.
5. Create “white space” to think.
When you’re in that reactive, putting-out-fires mode, you rarely have time and space to just think. Block out two hours of “white space” time each month with your leadership team, and ask questions that can help you build adaptability as a team: “What surprised us recently? What trends or signals are we noticing? What might we be missing?”
Invite people from different departments or regions to join you. What are they hearing from clients and customers? What are they noticing in their regions? Widening your perspective can give you more information, and more information makes it easier to adapt.
6. Protect your most valuable resource: you.
Burnout prevention isn’t a luxury to think about once things have settled down. It’s a non-negotiable. My client has recommitted to going for a morning run before his workday starts, no matter where he is in the world. It not only helps him stay healthy, but it grounds him mentally. He blocks his running time off on his calendar. If weather doesn’t allow an outside run, he hits the hotel treadmill.
Consider your own burnout prevention tools—whether they’re exercise, meditation, time in nature, time with friends and family, or whatever helps you feel renewed—as immovable boundaries for yourself and your team. The world isn’t slowing down anytime soon. However, with clarity, adaptability, and care for yourself and your team, you can lead through uncertainty and even find strength in it.
The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
When Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill sparked controversy in 2022, then-Disney-CEO Bob Chapek faced pressure from all sides. Employees demanded the company oppose the legislation. Conservatives warned against “going woke.” Chapek issued a carefully calibrated statement emphasizing inclusion while avoiding explicit opposition.
It satisfied no one. Employees staged walkouts. LGBTQIA+ advocates organized boycotts. Governor Ron DeSantis stripped Disney of tax privileges anyway. Chapek’s attempt to thread the needle backfired—angering both sides while demonstrating neither conviction nor values. Less than a year later, Disney’s board ousted him.
This is the difficult position facing leaders today—take a stand and trigger backlash, stay silent and lose credibility, or hedge and satisfy no one. Stakeholders increasingly demand leaders demonstrate values. The question isn’t whether to have conviction, but how to express it without making yourself a target.
“Intellectual humility doesn’t mean you’re unsure of yourself,” Mancuso explains. “It often goes hand-in-hand with confidence—and helps people become better collaborators, more forgiving in relationships, and more capable of navigating disagreement.”
Intellectually humble leaders acknowledge blind spots and consider opposing views. The most accessible entry point: simply asking questions. This isn’t weakness or both-sidesism. It’s engaging with disagreement while maintaining your position.
You can disagree without abandoning your values
Mancuso’s research reveals something counterintuitive: “It is not necessary for a leader to abandon his or her own perspective, to buy into the perspective of others, or to ignore the fact that there is disagreement in order to respect people who think differently and to acknowledge the soundness of alternative ways of arriving at conclusions,” she says.
Her research identified behaviors that increased follower satisfaction: welcoming different ways of thinking, respecting others when disagreeing, seeing sound points in opposing views, hearing others out, and respecting alternative approaches.
“What is noteworthy is that these behaviors all acknowledge difference and disagreement,” Mancuso notes. “People seem to appreciate it when leaders can value, respect, and listen to others even when they disagree.”
These approaches improved satisfaction with interpersonal leadership and perceptions of fairness—without impacting views of operational competence.
The competence caveat
“Intellectual humility is most likely to backfire for leaders when their competence was already in question,” Mancuso cautions. “When people view a leader as competent, then the leader’s expression of intellectual humility is typically seen as favorable. However, when leaders are viewed as less competent, then expressions of intellectual humility (such as saying ‘I don’t know’ or asking questions) can make leaders seem insecure and weak.”
The harder reality: “Unfortunately, sometimes leaders’ competence is questioned based on factors outside of their leadership abilities, such as their gender, race, or age. In situations like this, leaders might find themselves in a Catch-22 when it comes to expressing intellectual humility,” Mancuso says.
For underrepresented leaders, this means sequencing matters: Establish your expertise and judgment first through decisive action, then deploy intellectual humility from a position of demonstrated competence. You may have less margin for “I don’t know” early on, but once credibility is secured, humility becomes your strategic advantage—not your liability.
Women executives, leaders of color, and younger CEOs face higher barriers and may need to establish competence signals first.
Building forgiveness capital
Mancuso’s most valuable finding: “People are more willing to forgive leaders when they view the leaders as being intellectually humble. Thus, even when there is a loss of credibility or backlash, leaders are more likely to recover from this when they’re seen as intellectually humble.”
Why? She explains, “Perhaps people have more hope that intellectually humble leaders will learn from their mistakes and make corrections, making people more willing to re-invest in and engage with the leader even after a rupture.”
Intellectual humility functions as insurance. Think of it as a sort of “forgiveness capital” that makes recovery possible when things go wrong. Mancuso’s research found intellectually humble leaders engage in more servant leadership—they’re better at prioritizing follower well-being, perspective-taking, and empathy. Such leadership cultivates trust and increases engagement and satisfaction. Research links intellectually humble leadership to measurable outcomes: higher employee retention during organizational change and stronger customer trust scores—particularly when companies face values-based criticism.
What to actually say
Here are approaches that work:
“I acknowledge I may have blind spots. Help me understand your perspective.”
“People I respect see this differently. Here’s what I’m weighing…”
“I’m confident in this decision, but reasonable people can reach different conclusions.”
Here’s what backfires:
False equivalence when you clearly believe one side
Excessive hedging, signaling you don’t believe yourself
Asking questions when competence is already questioned
Abandoning your position entirely
Express convictions clearly while demonstrating you’ve considered alternatives and respect those who disagree.
A leadership orientation
“Becoming an intellectually humble leader might not be an easy, quick fix for navigating polarized environments,” Mancuso cautions, “but when leaders can cultivate this quality in themselves, they seem to reap benefits.”
Would intellectual humility have changed Chapek’s outcome? It’s hard to know. His challenges went far beyond any single statement. But the framework offers something his approach lacked: a way to express clear conviction while genuinely respecting those who disagree—thus reducing temperature without abandoning values.
That’s the path forward: not silence, not surrender, but conviction anchored in mutual respect. Leaders still need to take stands. The question of how they hold those positions determines whether they preserve relationships across divides or become the next cautionary tale.
Intellectual humility offers a framework for maintaining conviction while reducing temperature and building the forgiveness capital leaders inevitably need.
The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
Is President Trump going to restart nuclear weapons testing? When will this federal shutdown end? Will Californians pass Proposition 50, scramble the state’s congressional maps and shake up next year’s midterm elections?
Amid a swirl of high-stakes standoffs and unprecedented posturing by Trump, Gov. Gavin Newsom and other leaders in Washington and Sacramento, the future of U.S. politics, and California’s role therein, has felt wildly uncertain of late.
Political debate — around things such as sending military troops into American cities, cutting off food aid for the poor or questioning constitutional guarantees such as birthright citizenship — has become so untethered to longstanding norms that everything feels novel.
The pathways for taking political power — as with Trump’s teasing a potential third term, installing federal prosecutors without Senate confirmation, slashing federal budgets without congressional input and pressuring red states to redistrict in his favor before a midterm election — have been so sharply altered that many Americans, and some historians and political experts, have lost confidence in U.S. democracy.
“It’s completely unprecedented, completely anomalous — representative, I think, of a major transformation of our normal political life,” said Jack Rakove, a Stanford University emeritus professor of history and political science.
“You can’t compare it to any other episode, any other period, any other set of events in American history. It is unique and radically novel in distressing ways,” Rakove said. “As soon as Trump was reelected, we entered into a constitutional crisis. Why? Because Trump has no respect for constitutional structures.”
Abigail Jackson, a White House spokesperson, said in a statement that “President Trump’s unorthodox approach is why he has been so successful and why he has received massive support from the American public.”
Jackson said Trump has “achieved more than any President has in modern history,” including in “securing the border, getting dangerous criminals off American streets, brokering historic peace deals [and] bringing new investments to the U.S.,” and that the Supreme Court has repeatedly backed his approach as legal.
“So-called experts can pontificate all they want, but President Trump’s actions have been consistently upheld by the Supreme Court despite a record number of challenges from liberal activists and unlawful rulings from liberal lower court judges,” Jackson said.
There are many examples of Trump flouting or suggesting he will flout the Constitution or other laws directly, and in ways that make people unsure and concerned about what will come next for the country politically, Rakove and other political experts said. His constant flirting with the idea of a third term in office does that, as does his legal challenge to birthright citizenship and his military’s penchant for blasting alleged drug vessels out of international waters.
On Wednesday, Trump raised the prospect of further breaching international law and norms by appearing to suggest on social media that, for the first time in three decades, the U.S. would resume testing nuclear weapons.
“Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” Trump wrote — leaving it unclear whether he meant detonating warheads or simply testing the missiles that deliver them.
There are also many examples, the experts said, of American political norms being tossed aside — and the nation’s political future tossed in the air — by others around Trump, both allies and enemies, who are trying to either please or push back against the unorthodox commander in chief with their own abnormal political maneuvers.
One example is House Speaker Mike Johnson (R.-La.) refusing to swear in Adelita Grijalva, despite her being elected in September to represent parts of Arizona in Congress. Johnson has cited the shutdown, but others — including Arizona’s attorney general in a lawsuit — have suggested Johnson is trying to prevent a House vote on releasing records about the late Jeffrey Epstein, the disgraced billionaire sex offender whom Trump was friends with before a reported falling out years ago.
Uncertainty about whether those records would implicate Trump or any other powerful people in any wrongdoing has swirled in Washington throughout Trump’s term — showing more staying power than perhaps any other issue, despite Trump’s insistence that he’s done nothing wrong and the issue is a distraction.
The mid-decade redistricting battle — in which California’s Proposition 50 looms large — is another prime example, the experts said.
Normally, redistricting occurs each decade, after federal census data comes out. But at Trump’s urging, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott agreed to redraw his state’s congressional lines this year to help ensure Republicans maintain control of the House in the midterms. In response, Newsom and California Democrats introduced Proposition 50, asking California voters to amend the state Constitution to allow Democrats to redraw lines in their favor.
As a result, Californians — millions of whom have already voted — have been getting bombarded by messages both for and against Proposition 50, many of which are hyper-focused on the uncertain implications for American democracy.
“Let’s fight back and democracy can be defended,” a Proposition 50 backer wrote on a postcard to one voter. “It is against democracy and rips away the power to draw congressional seats from the people,” opponents of the measure wrote to others.
H.W. Brands, a U.S. history professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said, “Americans who are worried about democracy are right to be concerned,” because Trump “has broken or threatened many of the guardrails of democracy.”
But he also noted — partly as a reflection of the dangerous moment the country is in — that Trump has long rejected a particularly “sacred” part of American democracy by refusing to accept his loss to President Biden in 2020, and Americans reelected him in 2024 anyway.
“Americans have always been divided politically. This is the first time (with the exception of 1860) that the division goes down to the fundamentals of democracy,” Brands wrote in an email — referencing the year the U.S. Confederacy seceded from the Union.
High stakes
The uncertainty has festered in an era of rampant political disinformation and under a president who has a penchant for challenging reality outright on a near-daily basis — who on a trip through Asia this week not only said he’d “love” a third term, which is precluded by the Constitution, but claimed, falsely, that he is experiencing his best polling numbers ever.
The uncertainty has also been compounded by Democrats, who have wielded the only levers of power they have left by refusing to concede to Republicans in the raging shutdown battle in Washington and by putting Proposition 50 to California voters.
The shutdown has major, immediate implications. Not only are federal employees around the country, including in California, furloughed or without pay checks, but billions in additional federal funding is at risk.
Democrats have resisted funding the government in an effort to force Republicans to back down from massive cuts to healthcare subsidies that help millions of Californians and many more Americans afford health coverage. The shutdown means Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits could be cut off for more than 40 million people — nearly 1 in 8 Americans — this weekend.
California and other Democrat-led states have sued the Trump administration, asking a federal court to issue an emergency order requiring the USDA to use existing contingency funds to distribute SNAP funding.
Jackson, the White House spokesperson, said Democrats should be asked when the shutdown will end, because “they are the ones who have decided to shut down the government so they can use working Americans and SNAP benefits as ‘leverage’ to pursue their radical left wing agenda.”
The redistricting battle could have even bigger impact.
If Democrats retook the House next year, it would give them a real source of oversight power to confront Trump and block his MAGA agenda. If Republicans retain control, they will help facilitate Trump’s agenda — just as they have since he took office.
But even if Proposition 50 passes, as polling suggests it will, it’s not clear that Democrats would win all the races lined up for them in the state, or that those seats would be enough to win Democrats the chamber given efforts to pick up Republican seats in Texas and elsewhere.
The uncertainty around the midterms is, by extension, producing more uncertainty around the second half of Trump’s term.
What will Trump do, particularly if Republicans stay in power? Is he stationing troops in American cities as part of some broader play for retaining power, as some Democrats have suggested? Is he setting the groundwork to challenge the integrity of U.S. elections by citing his baseless claims about fraud in 2020 and putting fellow election deniers in charge of reviewing the system?
Is he really gearing up to contest the constitutional limits on his tenure in the White House? He said he’d “love” to stay in office this week, but then he said it’s “too bad” he’s not allowed to.
Fire with fire?
According to David Greenberg, a history professor at Rutgers University, it is Trump’s unorthodox policies and tactics but also his brash demeanor that “make this a more unsettled moment than we are used to feeling.”
“Sometimes when he’s doing things that other presidents have done, he does it in such an outlandish way that it feels unprecedented,” or is “stylistically” but not substantively unprecedented, Greenberg said. “Self-aggrandizing claims, often untrue. The brazenness with which he insults people. The way he changes his mind on something. That all is highly unusual and unique to Trump.”
In other instances, Greenberg said, Trump has pushed the boundaries of the law or busted political norms that previous presidents felt bound by.
“One thing that Trump showed us is just how much of our functioning system depends not just on the letter of the law but on norms,” Greenberg said. “What can the president do? What kind of power can he exert over the Justice Department and who it prosecutes? Well, it turns out he probably can do a lot more than should be permissible.”
However, the appropriate response is not the one seemingly gaining steam among Democrats — to “be more like Trump” themselves or “fight fire with fire” — but to look for ways to strengthen the political norms and boundaries Trump is ignoring, Greenberg said.
“The more the public, citizens in general, feel that it’s OK to disregard long-standing ways of doing things that have stood the test of time until now, the more likely we are to enter into a more chaotic world — a world in which there will be less justice, less democracy,” Greenberg said. “It will be more subject to the whims or preferences of whoever is in power — and in a liberal democracy, that is what you are striving to fight against.”
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
When uncertainty rises, many leaders do the reasonable thing. They become more careful. They slow spending. They pause plans. They wait for clearer signals before committing to big moves.
At first, it makes sense. The conditions are unclear. The pressure is real. No one wants to overcommit when the stakes are high and the path ahead is blurry. A measured pause can feel responsible, even necessary.
But over time, that caution can shift the culture. Motion slows. Teams hesitate. The energy that once kept people building begins to fade. Not because anyone made a bad decision, but because belief is no longer being modeled.
When leaders stop showing confidence in where the company is going, the whole system responds. This is not about charisma or volume. It is about posture, the way conviction shows up in tone, in timing, in the pace of decisions.
In moments like this, optimism is not a luxury. It is what keeps progress alive.
I have led through crises, pivots and culture resets. In each case, the same pattern showed up. When leaders carry belief, even when the path is unclear, teams keep moving. When belief disappears, momentum fades. People start waiting for clarity, direction or permission.
In complex environments, the emotional posture of leadership becomes the silent operating system. Optimism either sustains forward motion or its absence introduces friction. Even the best plans slow down when belief disappears from the room.
Optimism is not a personality trait. It is a leadership practice. It shapes how you speak, how you make decisions and how you guide others through complexity.
You do not need to be overly positive. You do not need to perform. You need to keep pointing forward with consistency. When your team sees that, they stay engaged.
The strongest leaders I’ve worked with are not the ones who avoid uncertainty. They are the ones who can hold it without handing it off to their teams. Optimism helps them do that. It keeps the weight from becoming the tone.
In most organizations, tone travels faster than tactics. If you grow more hesitant, your team will sense it. That is not a flaw. It is a human response to the emotional signals leaders send.
What you say may be precise, but how you say it often has more impact. A slight shift in energy from the top can change how an entire team interprets risk and momentum.
I experienced this in a high-pressure environment when our company came under scrutiny. We had a plan, but the atmosphere changed. People paused. Focus slipped. Energy became scattered. The quiet question in the room was clear. Do we still believe in what we are building?
In moments like that, no one waits for an all-hands meeting. People take their cues from daily tone, hallway conversations and executive language. That is why steady belief matters.
What helped us recover was not a new strategy. It was steady communication. We named the pressure. We spoke with clarity. We made sure people heard conviction in our voice. And we chose to keep moving.
That choice mattered. It gave people something to align around. It gave them permission to act.
Once teams see that leadership still believes, they recalibrate. Confidence comes back. Initiative returns. You do not need a perfect plan. You need clear, active belief.
This is what optimism does. It restores direction. It keeps systems in motion when certainty is unavailable.
Optimism is not about ignoring risks. It is about leading with belief anyway. When that belief is present, teams stay focused. They solve problems faster. They keep building when others start waiting.
It helps people think creatively instead of defensively. It creates space to try instead of waiting to react.
If things feel stuck, take a closer look at how you are showing up. Not just in presentations or briefings, but in everyday conversations. Are you modeling progress or stalling? Are you holding direction or broadcasting hesitation?
Because people do not just need approval. They need to know their leaders still believe in what they are working toward. That belief, when communicated with intention, becomes contagious. It resets energy. It shifts momentum. It brings direction back into the room.
Optimism, when carried with clarity, cuts through noise. It is not emotional. It is structural. It sets pace. It creates alignment. It holds energy in motion.
The leaders who move teams through uncertainty are not always the ones with the perfect plan. They are the ones who give people a reason to keep going. They carry belief on purpose. They model direction even when the conditions are imperfect.
Optimism is not the opposite of realism. It is what makes realism useful.
When leaders carry it well, the effect spreads. Not because they are louder, but because their clarity steadies the room.
When uncertainty rises, many leaders do the reasonable thing. They become more careful. They slow spending. They pause plans. They wait for clearer signals before committing to big moves.
At first, it makes sense. The conditions are unclear. The pressure is real. No one wants to overcommit when the stakes are high and the path ahead is blurry. A measured pause can feel responsible, even necessary.
But over time, that caution can shift the culture. Motion slows. Teams hesitate. The energy that once kept people building begins to fade. Not because anyone made a bad decision, but because belief is no longer being modeled.
CARACAS, Venezuela — U.S. warships steam toward the southern Caribbean. The Trump administration denounces embattled “narco-president” Nicolás Maduro and doubles a bounty on his head to $50 million. Rumors of an invasion, coup or other form of U.S. intervention flood social media.
For the beleaguered people of Venezuela, mired in more than a decade of crisis — hyperinflation, food shortages, authoritarian rule and rigged elections — a new phase of anxiety is once again rattling nerves. Even so, Venezuelans are trying to soldier on.
“We try to keep up our activities, our schedules despite the uncertainty,” said Leisy Torcatt, 44, a mother of three who heads a baseball school in a nation where a passion for sports helps fend off despair.
Students of the little league team for the Los Angeles de Baruta school practice in a park in Caracas.
“Our daily problems continue, but we cannot become paralyzed. … We keep on going forward trying to work out our differences,” she said.
There is an inescapable sense here that matters are largely out of people’s control. The massive anti-Maduro street protests of past years did little to dislodge, or undermine, Maduro, and the opposition has long been deeply divided. Authorities have jailed dissenters and broken up coup attempts.
And now, once again, Venezuela appears to be in Washington’s crosshairs.
“We have already seen it all,” said Mauricio Castillo, 28, a journalist. “It’s not that we have lost faith in the possibility of real change. But we are fed up. We cannot just stop our lives, put them on hold waiting for ‘something’ to happen.”
People shop in the central business district downtown.
Here in the capital, Venezuelans are accustomed to the enhanced martial ritual: more blockaded avenues, more troops on the streets, more barricades shielding the presidential palace of Miraflores, where Maduro launches diatribes against the “imperialist” would-be invaders.
Yet, despite the current naval buildup in the Caribbean, the Trump administration has given very mixed signals on Venezuela.
During Trump’s first presidency, his administration recognized a shadow opposition president, indicted Maduro on drug-trafficking charges and imposed draconian sanctions on the oil and financial sectors. The sanctions effectively collapsed an already shaky economy in what was once South America’s wealthiest nation.
The economic meltdown led to an exodus of some 8 million Venezuelans, almost a third of the population. Most ended up elsewhere in South America, but hundreds of thousands made it to the United States. Trump has signaled emphatically that they are not welcome, ending Biden administration-era protections and stepping up deportations.
A man fixes a Spider-Man costume at the San Jacinto popular market in Caracas.
During the presidential campaign — and since returning to the White House — Trump has repeatedly said, without evidence, that Venezuela had emptied its prisons and sent the worst offenders to the U.S.
But shortly after taking office for his current term, Trump dispatched a special envoy, Richard Grenell, to meet with Maduro, generating hopes of improved relations. Washington later granted Chevron, the U.S. oil giant, a license to continue operating in Venezuela — home to the globe’s largest oil reserves — in a move that provided much-needed hard cash for Caracas, and oil for the U.S. market.
Then, in July, the Trump administration hailed the release of 10 U.S. citizens and permanent residents being held in Venezuela in exchange for the return of hundreds of Venezuelan nationals who had been deported to El Salvador.
Meantime, the United States has regularly been sending other deportees back to Venezuela in another sign of bilateral cooperation.
“So far we’ve seen President Trump very clearly endorse a policy of engagement with Venezuela,” said Geoff Ramsey, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group. “The U.S. is not going to invade Venezuela anytime soon.”
Janeth, 45, a teacher of a community school, poses for a portrait in Caracas.
Others say they’re not so sure, despite Trump’s stated aversion to getting involved in more wars — and the likely negative blowback in much of Latin America, where the prospect of U.S. intervention inevitably revives memories of past invasions, land grabs and support for right-wing dictators.
In the view of U.S. officials, Maduro and drug trafficking are inextricably entwined. The White House labels Maduro the head of the “Cartel of the Suns,” a smuggling network allegedly tied to the Venezuelan government and military. And Trump has reportedly directed the Pentagon to plan possible military action against Latin America cartels. (Maduro denies the drug charges, dismissing them as a U.S. disinformation campaign.)
The massive scope of the U.S. naval employment seems to reflect the policy viewpoint of hawks such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has long championed a hard-line stance against Venezuela.
The buildup reportedly includes more than a half-dozen warships, including at least one submarine, and thousands of Marines and sailors. The White House says it’s meant to deter maritime narcotics trafficking, not topple Maduro.
“This is a lot of effort to put into something that’s performance, no?” said Laura Cristina Dib, who heads Venezuelan research at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research group.
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1.“Faith in our people” says a billboard with President Nicolás Maduro’s face in Caracas.2.A patriotic backpack with the Venezuelan flag colors and stars.
In response, Maduro has bolstered militia sign-ups, deployed 15,000 troops to the border with Colombia and insisted there’s “no way” U.S. forces can enter Venezuela. He scoffs at the U.S. contention that the naval buildup is an anti-smuggling effort, noting — correctly — that most cocaine is produced in neighboring Colombia and enters the United States via Mexico.
“It’s ridiculous to say they are fighting drug trafficking with nuclear submarines,” Samuel Moncada, Venezuela’s U.N. ambassador, told reporters Thursday.
By most independent accounts, Maduro likely lost last year’s election — monitors disputed his claimed victory — but his many backers are making a high-profile show of support given the U.S. saber-rattling.
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1.People walk in front of a politically charged mural near Bolivar Square. The Iranian Forest vessel depicted on the right side of the mural arrived in Venezuela during fuel shortages in 2020.2.An old military tank at Los Próceres near the Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas.
The government has orchestrated public sign-ups of militia members demonstrating their eagerness to fight for the socialist legacy of the late Hugo Chávez, Maduro’s mentor and predecessor in Miraflores Palace.
“None of us will be afraid when the moment comes to defend our country from foreign aggression,” said Orlando López, 54, a grandfather and proud militiaman. “It’s not justified that the president of some other country wants to impose his will.”
He rejected the notion of a pervasive sense of nervousness.
“The climate in the city is one of tranquility, of peace,” said López, who is part of a more-than-1-million civilian militia force backing Maduro.
On a recent Sunday at Santo Domingo de Guzmán Roman Catholic Church in the capital’s Baruta district, Father Leonardo Marius urged parishioners to ignore the drumbeat of war pounding the airwaves and internet. Venezuelans, he said, should focus on more basic concerns.
“In Venezuela, a half a million children don’t have enough to eat — no one talks about that,” Marius told parishioners in his sermon. “But we love the Hollywood stories of boats and aircraft carriers, the show. … ‘They are coming! They are are disembarking!’ Please! Hollywood has done a lot of damage. Let the stories be.”
An all-girls skating team skates at Los Próceres near the Fuerte Tiuna military base in Caracas.
Across town, at an upscale sports club, Javier Martín, a businessman, said the noise was hard to ignore.
“The atmosphere across the country, but especially here in Caracas, is one of fear, distress, uncertainty,” said Martín. “You see hooded officials on the streets and it makes you feel fear, like you are in a war.”
Venezuelans, he explained, live a kind of “surreal” existence, struggling to maintain their lives and families while always anticipating improvements, and changes, that never seem to come.
“We live cornered every day,” he said. “It’s not sustainable.”
What’s next?
“Everyone expects something to happen,” Martín said. “I just hope it’s positive.”
Special correspondent Mogollón reported from Caracas and Times staff writer McDonnell from Mexico City.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Over a decade ago, esteemed statistician and essayist, Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a series of arguments about organisms or systems that do more than just resist or bounce back from stressors and adversity. Instead, they improve their capacity to thrive in the long term because of those very stressors.
This phenomenon, which he termed antifragility, has subsequently been applied to various fields such as risk analysis, aerospace, molecular biology, urban planning and more, to great success. Where it hasn’t been adequately integrated and leveraged is in entrepreneurship, and further, in how we develop the psychology required to become antifragile. Therein lies a significant opportunity.
In an entrepreneurial sense, antifragility means that unlike things that are “resilient” (i.e., can withstand shocks) or “fragile” (i.e., are harmed by shocks), antifragile entities thrive and improve in the face of volatility, uncertainty and stress. Applying the concept of antifragility to an entrepreneurial framework involves cultivating an organizational structure and mindset that not only withstands uncertainties and disruptions but leverages them for growth.
I am no stranger to the volatility of life and the markets. I’ve weathered life’s ups and downs, particularly after the 2008 crash, when I faced total financial loss. This phase was tough on both personal and professional fronts. Those days tested me to the core. They were challenging my resilience and character like never before. As I began to rebuild my life and reframe my purpose as an entrepreneur, the concept of antifragility began to blossom. I learned to lean into hardship, and I embraced the principle of antifragility, learning to grow stronger from adversity, volatility and stress.
Antifragility is not about bouncing back, returning to baseline or even withstanding stress, volatility, uncertainty or any other adversity. It’s about growing and benefitting from those things. It’s being a Hydra, not a Phoenix. The famous mythical bird, the Phoenix, is noted for its incredible ability to dissipate to ashes, only to be reborn as it once was. It does this repeatedly, the same cycle of ashes to rebirth, over and over. However, the Greek legend of Heracles and his 12 labors paints a different picture for us. One of Heracles’ famous labors is the destruction of the Hydra, a nine-headed water snake. While nine heads might be more than formidable enough, the Hydra also had a unique characteristic. If Heracles were to successfully slice off one of the Hydra’s heads, it wouldn’t just grow the head back, it would grow back that head and more. Cut off one of its heads, it grows back two more. The Hydra isn’t just resilient, it’s antifragile.
From an entrepreneurial perspective, the concept of antifragility is a powerful tool. It’s learning to become a Hydra. Adopting an antifragile mindset in business means not just surviving in a chaotic environment but actively seeking ways to grow and improve as a result of the chaos. It’s about turning volatility and uncertainty into opportunities for innovation, learning and resilience.
Indeed, this can be a difficult concept to apply practically simply because most of our knee-jerk reactions are to avoid discomfort, volatility and uncertainty. So, how can entrepreneurs develop an antifragile mindset?
Building an antifragile mindset
While much more research needs to be done to better understand the psychology and neuroscience of antifragile behavior, we do have some excellent indicators from the science and lived experiences of antifragile individuals. Several of those indicators fall into a bucket of what we call mindset, a set of beliefs, both conscious and unconscious that influence the way we see and interact with the world. These mindsets impact our “thought-action repertoires,” the short list of possible actions or behaviors chosen from in any given context.
Developing such mindsets requires training several ways of thinking over time so that they eventually become traits. The first, and perhaps most critical trait is psychological flexibility. Antifragility is not about rigidity, but flexibility within a clearly defined boundary of values and beliefs. It’s not just mental toughness or “suck it up” attitudes. It’s the ability to exist in, endure and even benefit from a rich range of experiences and to be able to see situations from a range of perspectives.
This gives way to another important skill, the ability to see and approach stressors as challenges or opportunities instead of threats, what is commonly referred to as a challenge mindset as opposed to a stress mindset (e.g., fight, flight or freeze). While many more granular details and thinking styles exist within these larger categories, being psychologically flexible, generally optimistic and challenge-oriented serve as excellent starting points for developing an antifragile mindset.
Once you have worked on developing an antifragile mindset, entrepreneurs can begin to apply practical strategies for building antifragile businesses and frameworks.
Recognizing that antifragile systems thrive amidst chaos and uncertainty, and choosing to see these conditions not as threats but as avenues for growth is a game changer. This mindset encourages entrepreneurs like us to not shy away from risks but to engage in calculated ones that bring beneficial volatility.
Similarly, diversification is key; by spreading out revenue sources, customer bases and offerings, we can make our businesses more adaptable and less prone to singular shocks. Learning from failure is also a cornerstone of antifragility. Viewing setbacks as crucial learning moments allows us to foster a culture of innovation and resilience.
Agility and adaptability are paramount; I believe in incorporating flexibility into business models to swiftly navigate market shifts. This involves a constant re-evaluation of strategies to stay aligned with the dynamic business environment. In pursuing decentralization, we mitigate risks associated with single points of failure, enhancing our response to disruptions. Ensuring systems are robust, with redundant processes and well-thought-out contingency plans, further fortifies our antifragile stance.
Continuous innovation keeps entrepreneurs ahead, urging us to always push the envelope and explore new territories. Building a strong network is equally crucial, providing a support system and resources that are vital in tumultuous times.
Lastly, the foundation of antifragility lies in resilience — both organizational and personal. Prioritizing the well-being of ourselves and our teams, ensuring a healthy work-life balance and nurturing a supportive environment are all critical in building a truly resilient and antifragile enterprise.
Embracing antifragility represents a paradigm shift in entrepreneurship, encouraging leaders to not just endure but to harness volatility and uncertainty as engines for innovation and growth.
As we navigate a world characterized by rapid change and unpredictability, the principles of antifragility offer a roadmap for building robust, dynamic businesses poised for long-term success. By integrating these concepts into their strategies, entrepreneurs can create organizations that not only withstand but capitalize on the complexities of the modern market.
It’s time to let chaos be your catalyst, embracing antifragility as not just a strategy for survival, but as the foundation for unprecedented growth and innovation.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
In the challenging realm of entrepreneurship, change is constant, and uncertainty is expected. It’s not a matter of if, but when, and how you navigate the unknown that defines your journey. Once you learn to accept uncertainty, entrepreneurs and CEOs will discover that it can be a gateway to transformative growth.
Recognizing the inevitability of uncertainty is a strategic imperative. I have learned that it is not a challenge to overcome; but instead, something to be embraced as a tool for leadership and a catalyst for personal growth.
As an entrepreneur and capital market expert with over 35 years of experience, I lost almost everything I had built during the Great Recession. It was a period that tested more than my business acumen; it was a profound examination of my resilience and integrity. During that time, the challenges were immense, but in retrospect, the lessons were invaluable. The strategies I learned to employ, the decisions I made and the mindset I cultivated during that tumultuous time continue to be guiding beacons for me in navigating the complexities of today’s business environment. Having been through a time that tested my resilience in business and life, I now understand the intricacies of leading through uncertainty.
The inevitability of uncertainty in entrepreneurship
In today’s business landscape, uncertainty presents itself at every turn. This state of perpetual unpredictability is simply a factor of modern existence in the business world. It is a convergence of factors — technological leaps, global interconnections, economic changes, geopolitical issues and environmental challenges. Together, these factors weave a complex narrative and result in an environment where change is not just a possibility but a constant force that shapes the very fabric of entrepreneurial endeavors.
Yet, within these uncertainties lies a paradoxical truth — uncertainty, rather than a hindrance, can be a powerful catalyst for innovation and strategic thinking. Uncertainty can be a disruptor of conventional patterns, pushing entrepreneurs beyond their comfort zones and challenging established norms. The very nature of uncertainty demands a continuous reevaluation of strategies, which fosters a culture of adaptive planning and innovation. This can help businesses not just to survive but to thrive in an ever-changing market.
McKinsey & Company, a beacon of strategic consultancy, echoes the sentiment of embracing uncertainty. Their insights on managing uncertainty in business emphasize the critical importance of preparation for various outcomes. They advocate for a shift toward creative problem-solving approaches and the need for new operating models to respond to extreme uncertainty. Strategic courage, according to McKinsey, is paramount in volatile times, urging organizations to build resilience for an uncertain future. This resonates profoundly with the idea that navigating the uncertainties of today’s business environments necessitates not just traditional strategies but innovative leadership and adaptable approaches.
Case study in entrepreneurial resilience
In the tumultuous IPO market of 2023, characterized by fluctuating valuations, tightened access to capital, rising interest rates, bank instability and global geopolitical challenges, several IPOs stood out as beacons of entrepreneurial resilience. One such success story was CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA), a leading U.S.-based restaurant chain that defied the odds and went public in June 2023.
The IPO of CAVA Group, Inc. exemplifies strategic resilience in uncertain times. Despite the challenging backdrop, the company’s shares experienced a remarkable 37% rise from their initial offering price, signaling not only the market’s strong reception but also confidence in CAVA Group’s business model. Opening at $22 per share and raising $318 million, the IPO closed its first trading day at an impressive $43.78. This success underscores the potential for triumph in a volatile market, highlighting the importance of robust business strategies and adaptability.
How can leaders and entrepreneurs navigate uncertainty in their businesses today?
Below are some key tips for navigating uncertainty in today’s business landscape.
1. The power of a support network: The value of a robust support network is unparalleled during challenging times. Insights, emotional support and wisdom from peers, mentors and family form a crucial foundation for successfully navigating uncertainties. A well-established support network offers guidance and solace when it is needed the most, creating a sense of community amid uncertainty.
2. Valuable lessons from failure: Uncertainty often accompanies failures and setbacks, providing invaluable lessons. These tough moments are educational, teaching resilience, refining problem-solving skills and emphasizing the importance of persistence. Lessons from failure become the building blocks of sustained success and continual personal development.
3. Managing personal relationships in uncertain times: Navigating uncertain business environments can put a strain on personal relationships. This underscores the importance of maintaining open communication and a healthy work-life balance. Investing time and emotional energy in personal relationships not only strengthens bonds but also contributes to a more balanced and fulfilling life.
4. Reinvention after setbacks: The journey of self-reinvention following significant setbacks is transformative. It involves reevaluating priorities, setting new objectives and acquiring new skills. Embracing change becomes an avenue for growth, allowing for personal and professional evolution. The ability to reinvent oneself is a potent strategy for thriving in uncertain times.
As we navigate the complexities of uncertainty, these lessons can provide a transformative perspective. By embracing uncertainty as an opportunity for positive development and growth, individuals can not only weather the challenges but emerge stronger, more resilient and better equipped for the uncertainties that are to be expected as leaders and entrepreneurs. The journey through uncertainty can be a powerful catalyst for personal and professional advancement.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
In every enterprise, whether you own a football team or run a shoe company, you have a few strategic moments when you can change the way you deploy resources to get a new outcome.
For most businesses, that time comes in the fourth quarter, a reflective period when you can take a fresh look at how you leverage people, time and money. Businesses who approach this opportunity with intention can start the new cycle with the right tools to meet the three greatest challenges businesses face, altering their course and rising to the next level.
Your greatest competition is not necessarily other companies or influencers in your space. Your greatest competition is everything you don’t know about what they do well and how you can capitalize on areas of weakness. The first step in launching or rebranding is research. Everyone thinks they have a unique business, but is that true? It’s important to research the marketplace, taking a close look at the standouts.
Who is in your space? Find out who they are and how your concept differs from theirs. What is the one thing they do best? How can you fill a need they don’t?
In-N-Out Burger found a way to stand out. While many burger joints offer multiple specialty burgers, In-N-Out made things easy. Their brand is total simplicity from the limited choices to the clean-cut staff and basic color scheme in their stores. In-N-Out Burger fills a need: People’s lives are complicated. A burger order should be simple. The company delivers on that, and their sales prove it.
While you research the space you’re in, develop your unique selling proposition to ensure you are meeting customer demand. Be willing to make changes based on the research and reflection you do throughout the year.
2. Building a community
With more people working remotely, staff shortages and dwindling customer service hours, consumers are complaining about a lack of response when they reach out to many companies. Your business is a community. Do people enjoy being a part of your neighborhood? Or do they feel alienated and outcast?
Cultivating a sense of community starts with accessibility and connection, for clients and for employees.
When customers call, someone should be able to at least process a request and move it up the chain. Loyal customers should feel that their commitment is appreciated. Some of the best companies offer topical meetings once per week, a space where clients can learn more about products and services as well as a chance to give feedback. This is an opportunity to identify problems early rather than after it’s too late.
In the same way, you can build meaningful connections with your workforce. With so much work happening remotely, blogs, newsletters and digital messages can help your entire network feel a part of what your company does. CEOs can meet virtually or in person with a rotating small group of employees to exchange ideas and gain important feedback. Special corporate events and retreats can create a stronger sense of camaraderie among teams and a chance for leaders to get to know their employees on a more personal level. This will create an inspired synergy amongst the team.
The only guarantee in the world of business is the knowledge that big changes and shifts will always be a part of what you do. Growth forecasts can be wrong. The business climate can be unstable. However, some of these big changes and “unforeseen events” are quite predictable. If you are planning a beach party to launch a new surfboard company, you can predict weather changes that could ruin your event, costing you tens of thousands in marketing and set-up.
It’s important to research the fiscal year of the industry you are targeting. There’s an economic cycle you must consider. For example, if you’re marketing, it’s important to understand that every corporation has a different tempo. If you’re booking a speaking tour, most organizations want proposals in the last quarter. But if you’re launching a campaign or a business, December is not a good time since you’d be competing with the holidays. It’s important to know your seasons and plan accordingly.
With all the unknowns, the best approach is to find ways to bring stability. In the planning phase, ask questions, consider the timing of everything and be flexible. An outdoor event doesn’t have to take place in Sioux Falls in January; there are plenty of better months to choose from.
Another area of uncertainty is people. If you’re experiencing staff shortages, you can create teams of diversified roles but make sure everyone has the same basic tools and knowledge base. Football teams have the first string, second string, down to the practice squad. In other words, they have backups. If everyone has the same basic skillset, they can move up and fill in as needed.
It’s important to look at all the factors when you’re bringing new people on board. Is it the right time for you to partner with people or contract with a group to take on a big project? Asking the right questions can help you avoid paying good money for expertise that can’t be put to use because the timing is off.
A few simple strategies can help your business thrive while others are closing their doors. Taking the time to do needed research will help you establish a brand that stands out and outlasts the competition. Leveraging your resources wisely will help you navigate any business challenge. You can eliminate some uncertainty by knowing and respecting the season you’re in. You may not be able to stop the cycle of change coming your way; however, you can make a few small adjustments that will mean all the difference for you and the community you serve.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Will there be a recession? Are we in a downturn? Even economists can’t agree. Still, entrepreneurs are busy planning, projecting, and looking into the future. There are countless decisions to be made, but one of the most critical is what strategy your company will pursue this year — is it a year of growth or status quo?
Since founding my PR agency in 2008, I’ve had a front-row seat to high-growth companies — or those with the ambition to be high-performing. CEOs of hyper-growth companies look at the world differently; external conditions are a consideration, not a driving force, because thriving companies know the cream always rises to the top and build their strategies around getting there.
When uncertainty is clouding decision-making, there is a lot of pressure to turn to cost-cutting.
The reality is: It doesn’t matter if a recession is looming — a company in your category will be No. 1 in revenue this year regardless. If it’s your company, it will be because you controlled the things you could. Since 2008, I’ve seen thriving companies do these things with total clarity, regardless of economic conditions.
Ambitious companies know cost-cutting has never led to growth — ever. It may increase profitability, but that’s a different strategy. Growth strategies require investment.
Commonly, bean counters say things like “our salespeople make too much” or “there’s no direct line to sales with this initiative,” that’s their job — to point out these potential concerns.
But high-growth CEOs know companies in high-growth mode operate knowing that every dollar they invest has a return because they invest in the right places for growth. When that ROI starts to flatten, you’re in maintenance mode, not growth mode.
Thriving companies align investment with growth. They spend money on marketing, sales and PR because those are the levers you pull when you’re growing or want to grow. The average company with $10 million to $25 million in revenues spent 15% of its revenue on marketing initiatives. If you want to be average, there’s your baseline. If you want to be dominant, you must stretch that budget, and it may mean giving up some profitability in the short term.
Growth-oriented CEOs know spending on growth is essential for the next phase, whether IPO, acquisition or capital infusions. Everyone loves a winner — the goal is to be the winner in the eyes of your stakeholders who carry you to your ultimate goal.
It doesn’t matter if you sell to businesses or consumers. Not all sales activities have a direct line to a sale.
What does lead to sales is consistent exposure and relationship building. Relationships are a differentiator in today’s very crowded, very competitive marketplaces. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in the first half of 2023, 3.12 million businesses were started, meaning new business starts in 2023 are trending against historical averages. Starting a business has never been easier; every business has competitors chomping at their heels. Now, only 6% of businesses ever reach revenues over $1 million, so those companies aren’t your competition — yet. But one of those companies that started three years ago is probably creeping up on you, and you don’t even know it yet.
Salespeople or sales channels need visibility, and they need a reason to engage and start a conversation with potential buyers. If every discussion begins with “we have a deal for you,” then you are conditioning your buyers to wait for a sale to buy. That’s not a winning tactic unless you can win the race to the bottom.
Enterprise and publicly traded companies often use this strategy — and it’s sometimes a reason companies want to IPO, so they have the budget to win this battle and be the dominant player; once they own the marketplace, they’ll be able to raise rates with impunity — at least for a while. Most privately owned businesses cannot win this war, so they must be growth-minded and remember to support the sales process.
Your marketplace positioning dictates how you support your sales team and sales initiatives. If you want to be No. 1, you need to be the most trusted and visible, so allocate your marketing budget with that split in mind. If you’re already the most trusted of your competitors, you may only spend 40% of your budget on trust-based initiatives like PR, face-to-face initiatives or events. If you’re already getting visibility but aren’t closing the deal, investing in trust is essential. One reason people invest in PR is because it provides both exposure and trust. Trust isn’t a line item on a spreadsheet, but you can plainly see it in key performance indicators (KPIs).
Everyone tracks revenue and profitability. But companies in growth mode track KPIs that give them insight into trust and reach. Thriving companies value their reach and reputation together.
Trust KPIs should be a steady build with noticeable year-over differences. If you were building a house, trust is your foundation.
Trust KPIs could be:
Time to convert
Direct website visits
Brand mentions
Brand associations (how trusted are the other brands you associate with)
Revenue per new customer
Return on ad spend (ROAS)
Awareness KPIs are important because exposure matters. Back to the house analogy, awareness KPIs would be your framing.
Awareness KPIs could be:
Impressions
Incoming leads
Reach (ads, media mentions, social media)
Growth CEOs track these metrics over time. Monitoring over time is essential because growth is like a train. It moves slowly at first, but once it starts to build steam, the speed of growth happens faster, assuming you keep fueling growth.
It’s a radical idea to ignore external factors — but that’s exactly what CEOs of ambitious companies do to grow. Growth mode isn’t a way of life; aggressive growth is the pathway to the next step, and during that time, there will be some eggs cracked to make an omelet. But I’ve noticed CEOs investing in, measuring and staying the course with growth do so with laser focus and focus on controlling the factors they can control.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
If there is one thing we know for certain (other than death and taxes) it’s that volatility and the markets go hand in hand. We’ve seen the stock market crash of 1929, the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, the financial crisis of 2008, the recent surge in blockchain and its related cryptocurrency rise and fall, the Covid-19 pandemic, and global tensions all demonstrate periods of marked volatility.
My area of specialization, which is the Small-Micro Cap IPO market, has recently been extremely volatile. 2021 emerged as a robust year for initial public offerings, driven by favorable economic conditions, a surge in technological innovation, strong investor appetite and the popularity of SPACs. 2022 and 2023 on the other hand, have been two of the worst years in the IPO sector in past decades, primarily due to significant market corrections influenced by economic factors, geopolitical events and heightened investor caution.
Throughout my 35-year journey as an entrepreneur, I’ve traversed diverse experiences, from encountering significant hardships — particularly during the tumultuous days of the great recession — to celebrating success. These hardships and setbacks became powerful lessons in resilience, compelling me to explore innovative solutions when adversity was overpowering. In these moments, I gleaned profound insights into the pivotal importance of adaptability.
In my current role, as the CEO of Exchange Listing, I’ve had the privilege of leading companies through the ever-changing landscape of IPOs, while at the same time scaling my business. Over the years, I’ve learned that in this volatile environment, adaptive leadership is not just a choice; it’s a necessity.
The challenges of making informed decisions during market volatility
Market volatility refers to the degree of variation in financial market prices over time. It often stems from a combination of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, investor sentiment and unexpected events like natural disasters or, as we all learned in 2020, global pandemics. Volatility is typically measured using metrics such as standard deviation or beta.
Navigating the intricacies of making informed decisions during market volatility presents a formidable challenge. Market turbulence, shaped by various factors such as economic data, geopolitical shifts and unexpected events, can trigger emotional responses that lead to impulsive choices. Short-term focus can eclipse long-term objectives, compounded by the overwhelming flood of information. In times of volatility, the natural inclination may be to minimize risk, but this approach could lead to missed opportunities. Successful decision-making in such an environment requires adaptability, resilience and a commitment to remaining well-informed.
As an adaptive leader, in the small/micro-cap IPO sector, my decision-making process is grounded in gathering real-time market intelligence from diverse sources. This strategy ensures that I maintain a high level of awareness and stay continually informed of the most recent developments in the dynamic, ever-changing IPO financial landscape.
The importance of triangulating information from trusted and relevant sources ensures that my understanding is comprehensive and reliable. Before implementing any strategies or decisions, I prioritize stress-testing my theories with my advisors and team, valuing their insights and perspectives. I have found that a collaborative approach helps refine and strengthen my choices and avoid making emotion-based decisions.
Understanding the adaptive leader
Adaptive leadership is distinct from other leadership theories and styles because it focuses on mobilizing individuals and organizations to adapt to changing environments and address difficult issues. It encourages leaders to view challenges as opportunities for growth and learning rather than simply seeking technical solutions.
The term “adaptive leadership” was developed by Ronald Heifetz and Marty Linsky at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Entrepreneurs are naturally adaptive leaders who seek out and thrive in environments characterized by uncertainty, rapid change and multifaceted challenges. Their ability to identify opportunities within chaos, pivot when needed and continuously learn from setbacks positions them as adaptive leaders by nature.
Entrepreneurs possess the resilience to confront unexpected obstacles head-on, the agility to adjust strategies in response to shifting market dynamics and the willingness to embrace innovation and experimentation as integral parts of their leadership journey. This innate adaptability enables entrepreneurs to navigate turbulent waters, drive innovation and lead their ventures toward success amidst complexity and ambiguity.
Taking time on the balcony, a concept coined by Heifetz and Linsky provides adaptive leaders with a valuable vantage point to gain perspective and assess complex situations objectively. It allows them to step back from the heat of the moment, observe patterns and make more informed decisions. This reflective practice is a strategic advantage, enabling adaptive leaders to navigate through ambiguity and volatility with greater clarity and insight. I value my time on the balcony, where I look to gain perspective when tackling pressing challenges, looking backward and forward at the same time.
In the throes of market volatility, adaptive leadership takes on even greater significance for entrepreneurs. It’s not just a theoretical concept; it’s a practical necessity for navigating the turbulent waters of today’s business environment. As entrepreneurs, we know that market volatility is the new normal, and adaptive leadership is the compass that helps us chart our course through these challenging times.
Consider this scenario: Market dynamics are in constant flux, and as entrepreneurs, we’re tasked with making pivotal decisions. Adaptive leadership starts with a deep understanding of ourselves and our teams, allowing us to pivot swiftly when faced with unexpected challenges. It’s about being agile, not just in response to market turbulence but as an integral part of our leadership style. During bouts of market volatility, adaptive leaders see these disruptions as opportunities for innovation and growth. For instance, when faced with economic downturns or supply chain disruptions, adaptive leaders and entrepreneurs might rethink their business models, explore new revenue streams or harness technology to adapt to changing market conditions. This proactive, agile mindset is what sets us apart and helps us thrive even in uncertain market environments.
Market volatility is a constant presence in business. In recent years, we have seen how market volatility can be influenced by countless factors — and while some may struggle, others flourish amid this turbulence. These individuals, the adaptive leaders, possess a unique skill set that equips them to navigate this volatility and make informed decisions that drive long-term success. The ability to adapt and make informed decisions in an ever-changing financial landscape is a sign of leadership excellence. Adaptive leaders not only survive market volatility but thrive in it, emerging stronger and more resilient with each challenge they face.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Every business will run into uncertainty at some point. Unsettled times, almost by definition, are challenging to navigate, and pose an additional challenge for employee managers and other leaders: how transparent should they be with staff members?
It’s important to recognize at the outset that there are reasons to be frank and open with team members and reasons not to be, but I’ve found that most of the time, honesty is the best policy, and there are quite a few associated benefits.
Reasons to be transparent with employees
It rallies everyone behind a shared mission: When a team has a common goal, its members pull together to accomplish it. But if they have no idea a business is facing uncertainty, you rob them of an opportunity to become invested.
For example, let’s say you have to make $20,000 in the next month to make payroll. If you don’t inform employees about the issue, they are stripped of the opportunity to go even further above and beyond — to work additionally hard to bridge the (hopefully temporary) gap.
It eliminates overthinking and fear: Even if you don’t directly tell employees about the uncertainty facing your company, they’ll likely know something is up in any case. Maybe they’ve noticed that you seem more stressed, or that you have been attending more meetings than usual… and they might start worrying. In turn, this can cast a shadow on company morale. Don’t leave workers wondering.
It takes pressure off of you: As a business owner, you know that it can be hard to ask for help. But in uncertain times, the support of a valued employee or two can make all the difference in the world.
For instance, if your workload has dramatically increased, you might need to call in an experienced team member (or members) to help. In this situation, it’s in your best interest to tell them what’s going on. Otherwise, they might think you’ve simply decided to slack off on responsibilities and offload onto them.
Of course, transparency can’t erase all the stress and pressure that uncertainty brings, but when you share some part of the informational burden, you’ll likely find that you have a little more room to breathe.
The pitfalls of not being transparent
Even given the potential benefits listed above, some business owners firmly believe that being honest about adversity does more harm than good. Chief among their reasons is that withholding potentially challenging information helps keep morale high, and workers happier and more productive. In their mind, nothing puts a damper on motivation like staff members knowing a business is in trouble.
Withholding the truth might seem like a smart course of action at first, but pretending everything is okay can backfire, not least because the false reality you’ve created leads to misaligned expectations.
For example, if an employee thinks everything is going perfectly, they might take additional time off. When workers have no idea of problems, you can’t expect them to pull together to get the company on stable ground again. If that same employee knew the truth, he or she may well have opted to come to work instead.
Being dishonest (including lying by omission) can also damage the trust you’ve built with a team. It’s entirely possible that at some point, a staff member will find out that the enterprise has faced (or is facing) a hardship. When they realize you kept that information from them, feelings of betrayal can ensue. Unsurprisingly, they may then hesitate before putting their trust in you again.
Taking care with the truth
If you decide to be transparent, care must be taken. With a little thought invested in how to frame a situation, it’s possible to be honest and keep morale up at the same time. A few tips:
• Stay positive while sharing current challenges
• Share your vision for remedying the issue
• Offer thoughts on actionable steps the company can take
Another oft-cited reason for avoiding sharing hard business truths is that it might cause workers to look for other jobs. After all, not everyone will feel inclined to stay on and help: Some may see a sinking ship and decide they’re better off leaving before things get worse.
This is an understandable concern and reaction. But you can also reframe it — regard the situation as an opportunity to filter out those who aren’t committed to your goals and mission. It might be better to lose non-committed personnel than risk having them perform poor or counterproductive work ongoing. At the very least, such work won’t be on the level of someone who is genuinely dedicated.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking that transparency causes people to leave. It doesn’t. Instead, it speeds up the rate at which inevitable things occur. In the case of employees who aren’t fully on board, rest assured they were always going to leave: being honest about your company’s situation just expedited the process.
How do you decide?
Before determining how transparent you need to be, weigh the pros and cons of both options. But keep in mind that there’s also the possibility of a hybrid approach, in which you might opt to confide in just the management team, for example, without letting information reach lower-level employees.
But again, and in my experience, transparency is the best way to deal with uncertainty in the vast majority of cases. You’ll maintain employee trust, take pressure off of yourself and unite the company in pursuit of a common goal. With such strong leadership, the enterprise will more than likely emerge not just surviving but prospering.
Previously a trader and an investment banker, Glenn Fogel joined Booking (then known as Priceline.com) in Feb. 2000 as a young manager. Two weeks later, the stock market peaked and the dot-com bubble burst. Soon after, the Sept. 11 attacks happened, hampering people’s desire to travel. And the industry was shattered again when the 2020 pandemic hit. How did the world’s leading provider of online travel lead through these uncertain times?
Find out in the next episode of our Leadership Lessons series with the CEO & President of Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) – parent company of Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, KAYAK and OpenTable – chats with series host Jason Nazar about how he leads more than 20,000 employees across 300+ offices in 220 countries around the world and the greatest lessons learned in his 30+ year career. Topics include:
Complete the registration form to watch now!
About The Speakers
Glenn Fogel is CEO & President of Booking Holdings (Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, KAYAK, OpenTable), a position he has held since January 2017, and CEO of Booking.com since June 2019. He previously served as Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning for six years. He was also EVP, Corporate Development for over seven years, responsible for worldwide mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances. Prior to Glenn joining Booking Holdings in Feb. 2000, he was a trader at a global asset management firm and an investment banker specializing in the air transportation industry. He is a member of the New York State Bar (retired). Glenn is a graduate of Harvard Law School and earned a B.S. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
Jason Nazar is a serial tech entrepreneur, advisor, and investor with two successful exits. He was most recently co-founder/CEO of workplace culture review platform Comparably (acquired by ZoomInfo), and previously co-founder/CEO of Docstoc (acquired by Intuit). Jason was named LA Times’ Top 5 CEOs of Midsize Companies (2020), LA Business Journal’s Most Admired CEOs (2016), and appointed inaugural Entrepreneur in Residence for the city of Los Angeles (2016-2018). He holds a B.A. from the University of California Santa Barbara and his JD and MBA from Pepperdine University. He currently teaches Entrepreneurship as an adjunct professor at UCLA.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
Previously a trader and an investment banker, Glenn Fogel joined Booking (then known as Priceline.com) in Feb. 2000 as a young manager. Two weeks later, the stock market peaked and the dot-com bubble burst. Soon after, the Sept. 11 attacks happened, hampering people’s desire to travel. And the industry was shattered again when the 2020 pandemic hit. How did the world’s leading provider of online travel lead through these uncertain times?
Find out in the next episode of our Leadership Lessons series with the CEO & President of Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) – parent company of Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, KAYAK and OpenTable – chats with series host Jason Nazar about how he leads more than 20,000 employees across 300+ offices in 220 countries around the world and the greatest lessons learned in his 30+ year career. Topics include:
Don’t miss out—register now!
About The Speakers
Glenn Fogel is CEO & President of Booking Holdings (Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, KAYAK, OpenTable), a position he has held since January 2017, and CEO of Booking.com since June 2019. He previously served as Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning for six years. He was also EVP, Corporate Development for over seven years, responsible for worldwide mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances. Prior to Glenn joining Booking Holdings in Feb. 2000, he was a trader at a global asset management firm and an investment banker specializing in the air transportation industry. He is a member of the New York State Bar (retired). Glenn is a graduate of Harvard Law School and earned a B.S. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
Jason Nazar is a serial tech entrepreneur, advisor, and investor with two successful exits. He was most recently co-founder/CEO of workplace culture review platform Comparably (acquired by ZoomInfo), and previously co-founder/CEO of Docstoc (acquired by Intuit). Jason was named LA Times’ Top 5 CEOs of Midsize Companies (2020), LA Business Journal’s Most Admired CEOs (2016), and appointed inaugural Entrepreneur in Residence for the city of Los Angeles (2016-2018). He holds a B.A. from the University of California Santa Barbara and his JD and MBA from Pepperdine University. He currently teaches Entrepreneurship as an adjunct professor at UCLA.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
From my Utah office, the stark whiteness of the snow outside reminds me that much of 2023 remains out of view, and only the passage of time will unveil the changes that will arise this new year. Like every year, 2023 will bring us an entirely new set of unforeseen challenges. Some of them are already here, like an economic slowdown, inflation that we haven’t experienced in nearly half a century and sky-high rates of employee burnout.
Like many leaders, I often start my days feeling like I have an obstacle course ahead of me. But as someone who’s worked in leadership and organizational development for more than 20 years, I’ve found it doesn’t have to feel that way. In fact, the new year and the challenges ahead can be positioned as opportunities rather than obstacles.
While it may seem contradictory, you can set yourself and your team up to make more gains in this changing environment than losses, especially in the form of innovation — it just requires the right framework. Here are four timeless principles that will help every leader better navigate uncertainty for themselves and their teams.
One of the most important habits to continue progressing in the midst of change is to practice your mindset. Recognize that you have the power to choose how you view your day and your work. If you consistently remember that you have more power than you think you do to intentionally choose a calm mindset, this shift will help you in the way you navigate workplace uncertainty. Most importantly, it helps you stay centered on those priorities that are of the most value to your organization.
If your inbox and schedule are anything like mine, you likely have unread emails vying for your attention and back-to-back meetings that, while important, feel like they get in the way of “real” work that needs to get done.
That’s simply the way it is. We can choose to allow ourselves to panic about the large number of emails and meetings we have, or we can tell ourselves, “Well, that just is…” Working ourselves up and spending our work day with high cortisol levels doesn’t help anything.
I often liken it to a hamster wheel. It’s so easy for leaders to hop onto that wheel and try to run faster and faster to get everything done. But all we end up doing is exhausting ourselves prematurely. In fact, 59% of Americans recently reported moderate to severe levels of burnout. We are spinning our wheels too fast, and are pushing ourselves beyond the breaking point. Instead, choose to be calm in the face of uncertainty and focus your efforts on what you can control. Recognize you simply can’t do it all and all at once. This calm perspective and focus allow us to complete our work more effectively, more productively and with a happier attitude. A triple-win.
2. Focus on the space between stimulus and response
One thing that change brings out in all of us is a stimulus response — a gut reaction to disruptions in our everyday routines. But there’s power in the space between the stimulus and response. That’s where we have the opportunity to pause and consider our response. We get to decide what we’d like to place in the space.
It could be listening to a colleague. It could be recognizing you don’t know the answer to a problem and need to collect research. It could be going back to your business objectives and re-prioritizing your goals. That space is where you decide what comes next instead of just reacting to what’s thrown at you. Recognize that it’s healthy and important to give time to that space before you respond. Demonstrate with your own actions that that space is also valuable to your team.
3. Create a safe, high-trust environment
While the first two principles focus on navigating change as an individual, the last two principles can help you manage change within your team and organization. One key to helping your team navigate change well is to intentionally create an environment that’s safe and embraces trust. If your team is walking around on pins and needles, worried they’re going to be laid off any day or wondering which of their major initiatives is going to be cut, they’re probably not focusing on being productive or effective.
Creating a safe, high-trust environment is not as difficult as it may seem. Simple things like making a point to talk regularly and one-on-one with each of your employees and asking them about their individual concerns or pain points can go a long way toward building trust. You can reiterate to them the company strategy and your team’s business objectives while being transparent as those objectives evolve and change. You can remind them of their value and express gratitude for their contribution to your team. These simple actions will build stronger relationships and develop trust between you and your team members and peers.
One of the best ways to actually take the uncertainty and do something productive with it is to direct it to a specific challenge. Take the challenge (i.e. the problem that needs to be solved) and then decide as a team to solve it. This gives you something constructive to do with that anxious and uncertain energy and provides an opportunity to work collaboratively and allow something positive to become of it. This process is empowering and engaging for employees — and it’s where meaningful innovation is born.
While none of us have a crystal ball, with the right mindset, you can break through uncertainty and help your team do the same. Recognize your employees as the brilliant individuals they are. When you seek to create a safe, high-trust environment and collaborate with your team on the changes that will come, you’ll be surprised to see the innovation your team brings forth.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
To say that we have collectively experienced massive turmoil and upheaval since 2020 first arrived would be an understatement of the highest measure. Lessons learned from the pandemic, and the roller coaster that it was in our personal and professional lives, highlight the critical nature of genuine, steadfast leadership.
When challenging and chaotic times occur, emotionally intelligent leadership is essential to ensure safe passage across choppy seas. This critical nature of a steady hand at the helm rings true for small businesses and large corporations alike. While the scale may differ, the core element remains the same: people.
Long-term, quality leadership hinges on the ability to keep the humanity of business a central component of all operations.
Every aspect of the business and customer relationship, whether directly or indirectly, impacts individuals. It’s important to step back from the point of sale or moment of service and see the layers of men and women connected to those single moments.
The consumer who is due quality products and service.
Shareholders expecting profitable — and sustainable — results
Senior leadership tasked with guiding the bigger picture
Team or departmental heads charged with implementing the vision
Every employee in their ranks, inspired to take on the challenge
The family and social connections every individual represents
When running a business, it’s natural to zero in on the transactional moments that represent the viability of our business or brand. Quality leadership remembers the bigger picture and what it takes to get there, to that moment when the product or service is fulfilled.
Amplify this process fivefold, tenfold or a thousandfold and that one thing remains: the humanity of it.
Employees deserve authentic respect in challenging times
In business, challenging seasons are inevitable; there is no avoiding that reality. And while the size and scope of the issue will vary in correlation to an organization’s size, the experience is felt the same for every employee.
A company may have hundreds or thousands of employees; a small business may have a baker’s dozen. Regardless, the workforce encompasses men and women who deserve leadership anchored with authentic respect.
Authentic respect as a leader is defined by the simple truth that we are all in this together. Small business leaders may experience this reality in a more tangible way, as the natural divide between employee and employer logically expands with every stage of company growth.
When operating with authentic respect, leaders navigating challenging seasons choose transparency over opaqueness, with intentional communication and connectedness driving adaptive, creative problem-solving.
Any business leader striving to guide their company through an arduous period may be tempted to dive into the deep end of empathetic and intentional support without having earned it or knowing how to achieve it effectively.
Employees are instinctively aware of inauthentic support done seemingly for show and little else. If clumsily attempted, well-intended measures of communicating care and fueling connection can prove ill-fated and counterproductive. Forced efforts exacerbated by poor research or being rushed into action can derail positive momentum.
Amidst tumultuous times, one-on-ones with employees and regular, alternating team and departmental meetings can be an excellent means to retain awareness and understanding. The larger the company, the more complex the system may be to ensure every individual receives proper care and support.
Conversely, scheduling one-on-ones or more frequent team meetings and having no game plan for effectively utilizing the time can drain away the impact of a well-intentioned check-in.
Perhaps your game plan is to listen if an employee or team member needs to vent about the stresses and challenges they’re experiencing. Having an awareness of your goals with any effort is essential to ensuring a positive, sustained impact on employee and company morale.
Leading with assured authenticity, transparency and vision
Nothing in business is accomplished without the individuals making it happen, the men and women who are the lifeblood of a company. Any leadership position is a privilege; it’s an opportunity to guide career paths and company trajectories. An awareness of this foundational truth is crucial to tamping down any potential for overly inflated egos that can derail leadership development.
Leading during challenging times is a wholly different level of challenge and reward. It requires higher levels of flexibility and creativity, demands authentic interpersonal skills fueled by empathy and necessitates open and active communication channels.
Your employees will look to you as their leader to provide clarity and confidence. You may not have all the answers, and your vision for the path forward may be a work in progress. If confidently communicated on wheels of authenticity and transparency, the light at the end of the tunnel will be all the brighter.
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
As we approach 2023, there is a ringing sound of uncertainty, amplified by foreboding headlines that warn us of a looming recession, or, as it’s described in one article, “a big reset,” — a term used to describe widespread layoffs across the technology sector. The latest report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics just adds to the collective discourse that we’re, well, doomed, stating that 263,000 new jobs have been added to the workforce — more than what was expected — yet the hiring economy remains extremely tight.
The reality is that uncertainty hasn’t actually risen — it’s always been there. What is rising, in fact, is our fearof uncertainty. And we, as company leaders, try to do everything in our power to mitigate it, analyze it and wish it away. But the truth is, uncertainty will always be there. We may shore up our supply chain, reduce inflation and vaccinate ourselves against Covid-19, but a new health scare may hit, a war might break out or a natural disaster strike.
As we kick off 2023, entrepreneurs have the opportunity to develop a relationship with uncertainty and get more comfortable with its existence. In fact, according to the Kauffman Foundation, a staggering 57% of Fortune 500 companies were started during a recession, so despite the fear of what’s to come, there can be a path to success. Here are seven ways to harness the unknown and find opportunity within that uncertainty:
1. Identify what is in and out of your control
No matter how much we plan, research and analyze, there will always be forces that are out of our control. Instead of obsessing about ridding ourselves of these circumstances, we must analyze our challenges and categorize them according to what we can and cannot control. For those we cannot control, we should be aware of them but also not dwell on trying to predict their outcomes. No one could foresee the effect a pandemic would have on their individual business. However, we can now think about the lessons learned, appreciate the innovation that occurred and reflect on how we can operate more nimbly in the future.
2. Reframe your uncertainty
Our tendency, as entrepreneurs, is to correlate uncertainty with a negative outcome. We don’t know whether we’ll raise the amount of capital we need, we don’t know whether our product will find market fit once launched, we don’t know whether our company will survive. The truth is, we also don’t know whether we’ll scale beyond our wildest dreams, an out-of-scope event will come our way that opens a new door, or an unidentified need for our product or service will emerge. As Steve Jobs once said, “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.” Uncertainty can be your biggest advantage.
3. Listen to what your sense of uncertainty is telling you
Many times, we as entrepreneurs feel a strong sense of uncertainty or fear about areas that affect us personally — meaning we are particularly sensitive to those topics that elicit a sense of fear-based bias resulting from our own life experiences. If you once had a poor experience living in a different city, state or country, for example, and are years later offered an opportunity to expand there, chances are your uncertainty bias will impact you. Perhaps you had raised money from a venture capital firm at one point in your career and that situation didn’t turn out well. You may be skeptical the second time around, potentially hindering an opportunity for a constructive investment relationship.
4. Detach from your desired outcome
There’s an old Yiddish proverb: “We plan. God laughs.” Many entrepreneurs kick off their ventures with their own definition of success in mind, and they become married to it. Any deviation is a failure. However, to properly navigate the reality of our futures being uncertain, we must detach from our own definitions of success — removing the ego from the outcome — and be open to what may unveil itself along the way. The uncertainty of such is also the joy.
5. Understand the bigger life picture
There is a bigger world out there, and it is important that we have perspective. Take a walk in nature and realize those things we obsess about are things in our own small universe. Uncertainty is inevitable, and it is foolish for us to believe that we have the power to control so much that goes on. Your life will not depend on the success of your venture. Today is a moment in time and we are but specks in a massive universe. Perspective is imperative.
7. Recognize your survival instinct
The human brain was formed over millions of years. We have an innate survival instinct that comes from the early days of being cavemen/women. For example, scientists have postulated that our need to be accepted by others stems from the previous reality that if the group were to kick us out, we’d be away from the fire and prone to attack by predators. This level of uncertainty held an entirely different scope at that time. Yet today our brains are still wired with the same survival-based fight-or-flight framework.
Our lives are all made of unique experiences that are individual to us. These experiences make up the lens through which we view the world. A toddler will not be afraid of the stock market crashing. However, s/he may be fearful of being alone or not having food. As entrepreneurs, we need to remove our biases and retrain our minds to approach our ventures with the wisdom of past experiences but also a sense of youthful naivety.
As we kick off 2023, we, as entrepreneurs, have an opportunity to redefine our relationship with uncertainty. There is an opportunity to partner with the feeling of uncertainty by acknowledging its existence, asking what it is trying to tell us and being comfortable setting our own boundaries with its partner: fear. Uncertainty can serve as the pavement for our future path to success. We just have to become friends first.
Even in situations when Japanese people are quite positive that something is true, they typically hold back on expressing claims. Similar to how one might use a layer of wrapping paper to hide what is really within a package, when speaking Japanese, Japanese speakers regularly encase their assertions in language that implies they aren’t sure about it. To suit this social tradition, Japanese offers a variety of grammatical terms for different degrees of certainty.
For example, consider a scenario where you arrive at work in the morning, and a coworker asks you whether you left a document on her desk last night. You did not do that, but you believe another coworker, Tanaka-san, may have. This is what you can say:
田中さん[かな / かも / な気がする / だと思う]。
It might be Tanaka-san.
These four terms are presented in order of degree of certainty: from least certain to most certain. Although four might seem like enough, that’s merely the tip of the iceberg. Japanese has a lot more similar expressions, and understanding them is crucial for speaking the language in a more Japanese-like manner.
To assist you in using Japanese in a way that possibly sounds more Japanese, this article discusses those terms in order of degree of certainty. Are you ready to learn them? Maybe? Perhaps? Well, it seems you are ready, I suppose. So, let’s get the ball rolling!
Notes:This article concentrates more on the subtleties of each term, particularly in ordinary speaking or writing. Some expressions might not be appropriate in formal writing, such as academic writing, as formal writing tends to require a rigid and assertive style in general.
A Big Picture Look at Degree of Certainty Words
As mentioned in the introduction, there are plenty of ways to convey your assumptions in Japanese. All of these expressions are for “judgments” made in light of the available information. The certainty of the judgment, however, can be different depending on how much information the speaker knows, and how much they rely on it to make judgments, as well as whether or not they reached their assumption subjectively or objectively.
To help your understanding, here’s a chart to show you a rough idea of the certainty level and how subjectivity or objectivity each term sounds:
“Certain” and “uncertain” should be pretty self-explanatory, but what do I mean by “subjective” or “objective”? Basically, the more “subjective” a term is, the more heavily it’s based on your own assumptions and intuition, whereas more “objective” terms rely a bit more on outside information or past experiences in conjunction with your own thoughts.
Don’t worry if you aren’t familiar with these exact expressions yet, though — we’re going to go over them one by one. Also, if you feel like this table is missing some other words you already know, such as 多分 (perhaps) or きっと (surely), rest assured that I’ll be covering them in this article as well, but in a separate section at the bottom!
Expressions For Conveying a Low Level of Certainty
To start, let’s introduce expressions for conveying the lowest level of certainty.
〜かな for “I Wonder…”
To express your feeling of uncertainty, you can use 〜かな. 〜かな is the equivalent of the English phrase “I wonder…” It’s often used with a notion or a hypothetical scenario that has come to mind, and implies that you should take it with a pinch of salt.
For example, if you sneeze and you wonder if you have a cold, you can stick 〜かな onto 風邪 (cold) and say:
風邪かな。
I wonder if I have a cold.
Here, 〜かな expresses that while you think you might have a cold, you are still unsure and are wondering about it.
You can also attach かな to a longer sentence. For instance, if you wonder you may develop a fever, you could say:
熱が出るかな。
I wonder if I’m getting a fever.
In a way, 〜かな is sort of like asking yourself a question, and thus it’s considered an informal expression.
Again, in this example, 〜かな indicates that even though you’re afraid of getting a fever, you are still unsure and wondering about it.
Due to its nature, 〜かな lacks the polite form. To express this sort of speculation when speaking to someone in a polite manner, you can instead use 〜ですかね or 〜ますかね, or the more formal 〜でしょうか(ね).
風邪[ですかね / でしょうか(ね)]。
I wonder if I have a cold.
(Literally: Do you think I have a cold?)
熱[出ますかね / 出るでしょうか(ね)]。
I wonder if I’m developing a fever.
(Literally: Do you think I will develop a fever?)
Here, です and ます are the marker for the politeness, か is the question particle, and ね is the confirmation-seeking particle. And, でしょう is one of the grammar points used to express speculation. If you aren’t familiar with them, check out the linked pages!
〜かもしれない for “May” or “Might”
〜かもしれない is the Japanese equivalent of “may” or “might.” It communicates the implication that something may be true, but you’re not completely sure. In other words, it refers to your guess when there is no concrete proof to support it.
Let’s use the same scenario of you sneezing. Instead of “you wonder,” you think you might have a cold. In this case, you can use 〜かもしれない and say:
風邪かもしれない。
I might have a cold.
Here, 〜かもしれない shows that even if you suspect that you might have a cold, you aren’t so sure. If you’re very certain that your sneeze is being caused by a cold, you shouldn’t use 〜かもしれない.
Note that 〜かもしれない is often shortened to just 〜かも in casual conversation, or in self-directed speech. So if you now have some chills and are telling your family member that you might develop a fever, it’s common to drop しれない and say:
熱が出るかも。
I may develop a fever.
Although it is grammatically incorrect, some people use 〜かも with です to lend a sense of casual politeness. So if you’re telling one of your superiors at work that you’re friendly with that you might get a fever, you could say:
熱が出るかもです。
I may develop a fever.
However, you would use the proper polite form, 〜かもしれません, if you were speaking to another senior employee with whom you have a stiff, square relationship.
熱が出るかもしれません。
I may develop a fever.
Alright, you’ve probably had enough of 〜かもしれない expressions, so let’s move onto the next expression!
〜気がする for “I Have A Feeling…”
〜気がする literally translates to “have a feeling,” and it’s used to express that you aren’t certain but “you have a feeling that something might be the case.”
Since 〜気がする indicates that you have a hunch about something, it sounds slightly more certain than 〜かな (I wonder) or 〜かもしれない (maybe/might). However, the certainty level of this expression is still low, because it only conveys a feeling or guess based on intuition, rather than known facts.
Let’s reuse the sneezing example to see how it works. After a big achoo, if you intuitively think “Oh, I may have a cold,” then you can use 〜気がする and say:
風邪引いた気がする。
I have a feeling that I have a cold.
Here, 〜気がする expresses that while you get the feeling that you have a cold, there isn’t any solid evidence to support this.
What if you’ve been experiencing chills and want to inform your boss that you sense a fever is coming next? In this circumstance, you can use the polite 〜気がします and say:
熱が出そうな気がします。
I have a feeling that I may develop a fever.
Once more, 〜気がします demonstrates that while you do have a sneaking suspicion that you may get a fever, there isn’t any concrete proof to back this up.
Alright, now that we’ve covered all the low certainty expressions (with the exception of adverbs, which we’ll learn later), let’s move on to the expressions for conveying a medium level of certainty!
Expressions For Conveying a Medium Level of Certainty
In this section, we’ll discuss expressions that convey a medium level of certainty. You might use these when you think you have some evidence to support your argument, but it remains a matter of conjecture, and you don’t want to assert thoughts too strongly.
〜っぽい for “Like…,” “-ish,” or “It Seems…”
〜っぽい is a slang-ish suffix that expresses similarity, as in “(feel) like…,” or “-ish” in English. For example, if you feel like you have a cold, you can say:
風邪っぽい。
I feel like that I have a cold.
And if you’re feverish, and you want to report that to your boss, you can add the polite です and say:
熱っぽいです。
I feel feverish.
In these examples, 〜っぽい casually indicates that you have some symptoms of a cold or fever, but you don’t necessarily know if you have an actual cold or fever.
〜っぽい can also follow the situation in which you think it’s likely true based on your observation, like:
風邪引いたっぽいです。
It seems like I have a cold.
In this case, 〜っぽい adds a sense of ambiguity, like “Given the symptoms, it’s likely I have a cold, but it’s not a 100% sure thing.”
〜みたい for “Like…” or “It Seems…”
Similar to 〜っぽい, 〜みたい is a suffix that expresses similarity or resemblance to something else. For instance, if you find a yellow tomato that tastes like or looks like a banana, you can say:
バナナみたい。
This is like a banana.
Depending on the situation, the use of 〜みたい here suggests that the yellow tomato has a flavor or appearance that is similar to a banana.
In case you’re curious, 〜みたい and 〜っぽい are comparable but distinct terms. バナナみたい means that you think the tomato somehow resembles or is similar to a banana, while バナナっぽい describes the tomato as having characteristics that are kind of like a banana.
Now, let’s switch 〜っぽい with 〜みたい in the earlier example 風邪引いたっぽい。(It seems like I have a cold.), as in:
風邪引いたみたいです。
It seems like I have a cold.
〜みたい and 〜っぽい are indeed very similar, and have the same translation when used in this way. If I were to be picky, there are very small differences between the two, though.
That is, 〜みたい demonstrates your assessment that your condition is comparable to, if not the same as having a cold, whereas 〜っぽい shows that, given your current circumstance, you get a feeling that you have a cold.
Since 〜みたい indicates your assessment, 風邪引いたみたいです is slightly more certain than 風邪引いたっぽいです. However, due to the ambivalence added by 〜みたい, 風邪引いたみたいです still presents the message that you’re aware that you probably have a cold, but are coming to terms with it.
〜だろう/〜でしょう for “I Guess Probably…”
If your hypothesis about something is based on opinions and perspectives with some justifications, you can use the expression 〜だろう, or its polite form 〜でしょう, as in:
風邪だろうね。
I guess that’s probably a cold.
熱も出るでしょうね。
I guess that they’ll probably develop a fever, too.
Here, 〜だろう/でしょう suggests that you are making a personal guess that you believe is probably true, while also suggesting that it is supported by some form of evidence.
These terms are typically used while making an observation and drawing your own conclusions. Although it is possible to use them to talk about yourself, talking about somebody or something else is far more typical.
Another thing to keep in mind is that だろう, or its abbreviation だろ, has an unrefined and rugged tone as-is. This rough-hewn aspect works well when you’re making an affirmative statement about your guess in writing or in a formal speech. In ordinary speaking, however, it sounds tough and is often considered masculine.
To soften the sound, the final particle ね is commonly used with it, just as in the examples above 〜だろうね. On the other hand, 〜でしょう is a very polite expression and is favored in formal situations. Adding ね to it, as in 〜でしょうね, can make it sound feminine, though it’s used across the gender spectrum in formal settings.
For these nuances, both 〜だろう and 〜でしょう might not always be the preferred choices in ordinary conversations. Instead, many people choose 〜と思う (I think…) instead to convey their assertion in general situations. Speaking of which, you can just scroll down to see how 〜と思う is used!
〜と思う for “I Think/Believe…”
When you draw a conclusion based on some evidence, and actually believe it’s likely to be true, you can use the expression 〜と思う (I think/believe…), which is the combination of the quotation marker と and the verb 思う (to think).
For example, if you not only sneezed but have chills and fatigue, you may say:
風邪引いたと思う。
I think that I have a cold.
Here, 〜と思う expresses that you have some reason to back up your claim, and you naturally came to think that’s probably the case.
When you say 〜と思う, you are merely expressing a thought, idea, or notion that just occurred to you.
If you’re wondering why the word “naturally” was inserted there, good eye! Japanese has two verbs for “think,” 思う and 考える. Between the two, 思う refers to more spontaneous thinking that bubbles up naturally “in your heart,” while 考える is a more methodical kind of active thinking, which we might say happens “in your head.”
Now, let’s take a look at the above example 風邪引いたと思う again. Here, the claim 風邪引いた (I caught/have a cold) is a highly convinced sentence in and of itself (we’ll talk about this later too!), and what 〜と思う is doing is actually softening the assertion by stating that it’s the notion that naturally came to you.
For this reason, the certainty of 〜と思う changes depending on the sentence you attach it to. For example, you can decrease the level of certainty by adding 〜かな (I wonder) or 〜かも(しれない) (may/might) to the claim, like:
風邪引いた[かな / かも(しれない)]と思う。
I think that I may have a cold.
In this case, 〜と思う softens the already vague かな/かもしれない statements and makes them even less certain. On the other hand, if you add an adverb like 絶対 (definitely), it becomes a strong conviction:
絶対風邪引いたと思う。
I think that I definitely have a cold.
But again, just saying 絶対 風邪引いた without 〜と思う is stronger, and what 〜と思う is essentially softening the strong statement.
This happens in English too, but as was mentioned in the beginning, Japanese people typically reserve making assertions about something unless they are fully certain that it is accurate. As a result, you hear 〜と思う, or 〜気がする (I have a feeling…), used with many Japanese remarks to help the speaker feel at ease.
There was a lot in this section to take in, huh? One final point: the polite form of 思う is 思います. So, use 思います when telling your thoughts to someone with whom you need to speak to in a courteous manner.
〜そう for “It Looks/Seems Like…”
You can also use 〜そう when you believe that something is about to happen, someone is going to do something, or some condition might be the case. For example, if you feel like you might develop a fever, you can combine it with the verb 出る and say:
As mentioned earlier, 〜そう basically translates to “it looks/seems like” in English. To put it another way, you can use this to simply describe what you think is going to happen, based on your observation of the present situation.
Since 〜そう is basically your report on what something “looks/seems like” based on your observation, its certainly level is slightly higher than other expressions we’ve learned so far. However, it still implies that you aren’t certain, so when talking about what’s seemingly about to happen, it often goes well with 〜気がする, as in:
熱が出そうな気がする。
I have a feeling that I will seemingly develop a fever.
Note that since 〜そう is an expression that’s dependent on what you are observing at the time you’re speaking, you cannot use it to explain an event that happened in the past.
Expressions For Conveying a High Level of Certainty
Now you’ve learned all the expressions for low and medium certainty, let’s move onto the high-certainty expressions.
〜はず for “Supposed To Be” or “Should Be”
If you think that something is “supposed” to be or “should” be the case, foreseeably based on objective, logical inference, the phrase 〜はず comes in play.
So if you have sneezed, get some chills, and foresee that a fever is about to develop, you can say:
熱が出るはず。
I should have a fever soon.
Here, 〜はず indicates that you believe that it’s highly likely that a fever is coming soon, and that belief is based on plausible information.
And if your assistant at work has some memory of having acetaminophen in the office cabinet, they could politely say:
薬があったはずです。
There should be some medication, if I remember correctly.
In this example, 〜はず suggests that they have a memory of having some medicine, if their memory is accurate.
In other words, 〜はず indicates a great degree of certainty, but not 100%. It conveys that you assume or believe that something is the case, but that you’re aware that it’s not necessarily so.
〜に違いない for “Must”
Like 〜はず, 〜に 違いない also denotes a high degree of certainty, but it implies that your own subjective judgment is involved to reach the conclusion.
It’s easier to grasp the nuance of 〜に 違いない while comparing it with 〜はず, so let’s bring back the earlier example of you foreseeing an upcoming fever for comparison:
熱が出る[はず / に違いない]。
I should have a fever soon.
The implication here is very similar, as both imply that you’ve reached the assumption that you are highly likely to have a fever soon, given that you currently have sneezes and chills.
〜に違いない sounds more confident and strong than 〜はず, because it conveys your personal conviction on the conclusion.
The literal meaning of 違いない is “no difference” or “not a mistake.” It indicates that something is exactly what you think without any difference or inaccuracy.
Thus, the literal meaning of the word 〜に違いない is “I affirm that XYZ is accurate and correct in every aspect,” which of course conveys a very high degree of certainty.
As you can see, what 〜に違いない implies is quite rigid. Hence, it’s more of a literary expression than colloquial.
Although 〜はず and 〜に違いない were interchangeable in the above example, because of the slight difference in nuance, they can’t always be swapped. For instance, due to its strong confidence, 〜に違いない cannot be used in the situation where you remember something and it’s highly likely, but you aren’t 100% sure, like:
薬があった[はず(です) / ❌に違いない(です) / ❌に違いありません]。
There should be some medication, if I remember correctly.
If you use 〜に違いない, or its polite forms 〜に違いないです or 〜に違いありません, in the above sentence, it would sound as if you’re a detective or a some sort investigator — it’s as if you’re drawing conclusions about the crime scene and asserting that some sort of medication must have been present at a specific location in the past.
The base of your claim can be either facts, knowledge, or even just your instinct, but with all the information at your disposal, 〜に違いない expresses that you cannot be certain that that will be the case.
For this connotation, detective characters in fiction may frequently employ 〜に違いない in speech. Howenver, few people want to sound like detectives in real life, so to say the same thing, people typically use 〜と思う, or its polite 〜と思うんです or 〜と思います, with an adverb, such as 絶対 (definitely):
絶対薬があった[と思う / と思うんです / と思います]。
I surely think that there was some medication.
We’ll soon go through all the adverbs for varying levels of certainty. Before moving on, however, we have one last expression for high certainty to discuss: the plain form.
Plain Form for “Realization” or “Conviction”
The majority of textbooks don’t mention this, but when Japanese people have just realized something or are finally convinced that something is the case, they typically just state it using the word in its most basic “plain form.”
For example, if you sneeze and become convinced that you have a cold, you might simply use the plain form and say:
あ、風邪引いた(わ/な)。
Oh, I have/got a cold.
Then, if you feel a chill coming on and are certain a fever will start, you can say:
うん、熱も出る(わ/な)。
Yep, I’m gonna have a fever.
Now suppose you genuinely start feeling sick and have a high fever, and believe it’s a flu. You might say:
インフルエンザだ(わ/な)。
This must be the flu.
These examples all have a plain form ending, either in the present or the past tense. They can still take sentence-final particles that are directed at yourself, such as わ (a judgment/sentiment marker) or な (a discovery marker). But even without them, ending a sentence in a plain form sufficiently communicates your judgment or your discovery that something is true and that you are confident in it.
You don’t typically see the polite form in this use because it’s essentially used for a self-directed realization or conviction. However, you may use the polite form if you are talking to the audience and speaking in a polite manner in general.
For instance, if you’re live-streaming your life and you think you have a fever the moment you’ve sneezed, you could say:
あ、風邪引きました(ね)。
Oh, I have/got a cold.
Then, if you feel a chill and anticipate a fever coming on, you can say:
うん、熱も出ます(ね)。
Yep, I’m gonna have a fever.
And then, you actually get really sick and have become to think you have the flu, you could say:
インフルエンザです(ね)。
This must be the flu.
As you can see in the examples, it’s customary to use the particle ね in this situation to solicit audience agreement, as in “do you agree with my realization?”
Okay, now that we’ve gone through every expression for certainty, all that’s left is to look at adverbs! Don’t be alarmed; since you’ve already learned so much, I’ll only briefly go through each adverb. So, let’s keep on and get to the finish line of this article together!
Adverbs For Different Levels of Uncertainty
In addition to the expressions learned above, there are adverbs that denote various degrees of uncertainty. These adverbs frequently go together with other expressions you previously learned, particularly with 思う, but the frequency of collocations depends on the word.
As promised, we won’t go into great detail about each adverb in this part; instead, I’ll list the basic adverbs for different levels of uncertainty (yes, there are actually more than our list!😅), explain the basic definition, and the most frequent collocation.
なんだか or なんか for “Somewhat” or “Somehow”
なんだか, or its more colloquial casual version なんか, is an adverb for “somewhat” or somehow.” This expression frequently goes with 〜気がする, as in:
なん(だ)か熱が出そうな気がする。
Somehow I have a feeling that I may develop a fever.
By adding なん(だ)か to the sentence with 〜気がする, it can muddy up your already-murky intuitive guess and make it sound more ambiguous.
もしかしたら for “Maybe” or “Perhaps”
もしかしたら is an adverb for “maybe” or “perhaps,” and it’s used when presuming something with a degree of doubt. This expression is often used with 〜かも(しれない), as in:
もしかしたら風邪引いたかもしれない。
Maybe I might have a cold.
Other adverbs like もしかすると, ひょっとしたら, or ひょっとすると express a similar nuance, but もしかしたら is the most common.
多分 for “Maybe,” “Perhaps,” or “Probably”
多分 is another word for “maybe” or “perhaps,” but its certainty level is higher than もしかしたら and thus it most commonly translates as “probably.”
Hence, it’s typically used with 〜だろう/でしょう or 〜と思う, as in:
多分風邪だろう。
I assume it’s probably a cold.
多分風邪引いたと思う。
I think I probably have a cold.
But it can also be used other expressions such as 〜かな, 〜かも(しれない), or 〜はず.
恐らく for “Probably”
恐らく also usually translates to “probably”, but its certainty level is higher than 多分, and it’s often used to predict a bad outcome in the future. Also, the tone is more formal and literary, so it’s best suited for formal conversations or in writing.
Because of this nuance, 恐らく is generally used with a very affirmative claim, accompanied by an inferring expression, such as 〜だろう/でしょう or 〜と思う.
恐らく風邪だろう。
I assume it’s probably a cold.
恐らく風邪を引いたんだと思います。
I think I probably have a cold.
In the above examples, the first one sounds like a written sentence or a blunt, self-directed thought, while the latter sounds like a formal and polite speech.
きっと for “Probably,” “Surely,” or “Certainly”
きっと is another adverb that could translate to “probably,” but its certainty level is much higher than 多分 or 恐らく and thus it most commonly translates to “surely” or “certainly.”
Hence, it can be used with an inferring expression, such as 〜だろう/でしょう or 〜と思う, but it can also go well with the expressions like 〜はず or 〜に 違いない.
きっと熱が出る[だろう / と思う]。
I assume I’ll surely develop a fever.
きっと熱が出る[はず / に違いない]。
I’m sure I’ll should develop a fever.
Note that きっと also has other implications depending on the context. For example, the following sentence can have two readings depending on the context.
きっと元気になるよ！
I’m sure [I’ll / you’ll / they’ll] should be better soon.
Here, if you’re talking about yourself, it expresses determination — you’re determined to be better soon. When talking about someone else, on the other hand, it can express a strong desire — you really hope they want to be better soon.
確実に or 絶対に for “Surely,” “Certainly,” or “Absolutely”
確実に and 絶対に are the words for “surely,” “certainly,” or “absolutely,” and they express a very high degree of certainty.
Hence, they can be used with an inferring expression, such as such as 〜だろう/でしょう or 〜と思う, but also go well with expressions like 〜はず, 〜に 違いない.
[確実に / 絶対に]熱が出る[だろう / と思う]。
I assume I’ll certainly develop a fever.
[確実に / 絶対に]熱が出る[はず / に違いない]。
I’m sure I’ll certainly develop a fever.
And they also go well with the plain form when expressing “realization” or “conviction.”
これ[確実に / 絶対に]インフルエンザだ。
I’m certain this is the flu.
Between the two, 確実に centers on “certainty” based on the objective fact that there are no mistakes, changes, etc., wheras 絶対に simply means “absolutely” and indicates being uncontested by anything.
間違いなく for “Unmistakably” or “Definitely”
Another adverb with a very high level of certainty is 間違いなく, which indicate your unambiguous conviction and can translate “unmistakably” or “definitely.”
It goes well with an inferring expression, such as such as 〜だろう/でしょう or 〜と思う or the plain form of a word that expresses “realization” or “conviction.”
間違いなく熱が出る[だろう / と思う]。
I assume I’ll definitely develop a fever.
間違いなく熱が出る(わ)。
I’m sure I’ll definitely develop a fever.
Note that 間違いなく suggests that you have given your judgment that something is undeniably true based on some information you have. As a result, it carries a more formal tone when compared to 確実に and 絶対に, though it can still be used in everyday speech.
Quite Possibly the Conclusion
Whew! I know that’s a lot of information to cover, but don’t worry if you haven’t memorized it all yet. This page can be a reference for you to revisit again and again until you’ve got it all down.
Keep in mind that the level of certainty described in this article is just an approximation, as the certainty conveyed can change depending on the context of the sentence, the person who uses the expression, and more.
Finally, like I mentioned, note that this article is just the tip of the iceberg; Japanese has tons of different ways for making statements less certain or more vague, including layering some of the above expressions, using double negatives, or more. Still, hopefully this is a good starting point for adding more nuance to your own Japanese, or helping you understand the level of certainty that someone is trying to express. Try and observe what sorts of statements Japanese people are making in real life and the context in which they’re making these statements, and hopefully this sort of nuance will become second nature to you.
Footnotes:
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own.
We are in unsettled times right now.According to some forecasters, the U.S. economy faces a 100% chance of a recession over the coming 12 months, and 98% percent of CEOs anticipate a recession. Whether in the 2% that remain optimistic about a recession yet or not, you recognize that during turbulent times, every decision counts.
All the uncertainty takes its toll. Each new hire, layoff and expense gets analyzed to ensure whether it leads to growth and, in some cases, even company survival. One of the biggest mistakes during recessionary times is making decisions too late. New entrepreneurs navigating this climate for the first time face difficulty making strategic predictions and knowing who to trust, seek advice and confide in. Even seasoned entrepreneurs, who have been through previous recessions, have learned that going it alone is not a good strategy.
This is an epidemic among entrepreneurs. The Gallup Wellbeing Index highlights that 45% of entrepreneurs report feeling lonely compared to 42% of other workers, with 50% of CEOs reporting loneliness.
Amongst entrepreneurs, a much higher percentage is feeling anxious or depressed daily. During these times, it is vital to cultivate communities of support to build resilience, ensure you do not make the necessary difficult decisions too late and weather the tough times ahead.
As the President and CEO of The Alternative Board, which represents 5000 privately-held small businesses in 22 countries worldwide, I speak with entrepreneur leaders daily about their concerns running seven and eight-figure companies to grasp the nuanced issues facing business leaders on main street.
The antidote is action if you are struggling with extreme stress and anxiety. But not just any action. Take action with the wisdom and guidance of others who have been through recessions already. You need support to boost your resilience and make sound decisions that advance your company’s growth and overall well-being.
How do you make difficult decisions confidently? It’s vital to surround yourself with other business owners, traveling down the same journey and learning from each other’s experience, to have the confidence to make hard decisions.
Facing the upcoming economic turbulence, here is the 7-step process to make difficult decisions and guide your enterprise to smoother times.
The adage “it’s lonely at the top” doesn’t have to be the case. If you feel you cannot share your day-to-day struggles with anyone, take some time to create the space you need to get clear. What is the underlying issue? It may not be an underperforming staff member. Perhaps it is the company culture overall or an outdated offer. Get to the root cause issue underlying the situation. You are not alone, even if you feel lonely.
2. Air the issue with your peers.
Napoleon Hill’s bestselling book “Think And Grow Rich” introduced the concept of an alliance of business leaders that convene around a given topic as a “mastermind.” Create a group of support between five to 10 individuals; they can be in varying industries, ages or demographic — the more diverse, the better. Articulate your issue to the group for their assessment.
3. Seek first to understand.
Ask clarifying questions to understand in a round-table style session; at my company, our philosophy is “don’t move the fence until you know why the fence was put there in the first place.” Our members want to ensure they are helping each other solve root-cause issues rather than symptoms. Have everyone ask clarifying questions to understand in a round-table style session. When everything is understood, you are better able to receive valuable feedback.
4. Share your experience.
The best advice is experience-based advice. Business owner peer boards often represent 150 years of business experience or more. Peers share their collective experiences. Sometimes the best advice is, “I tried this before, and it didn’t work out well for me.” That kind of advice is invaluable to other business owners. Consider whether any experience could apply to you or spark a new path forward.
Many entrepreneurs spend too much time consuming information and not enough time in execution. After considering the feedback from your group, process what the takeaway points will be. What is most beneficial for your company in its growth trajectory? Decide on what from the session you would like to prioritize.
6. Commit to action.
We intentionally use the word “commitment” in board meetings. Members commit to each other that they will take a specific action. Commitment implies not only action but that each person is committing to their peers that they’ll take action. These commitments are a key part of moving key issues and opportunities forward.
7. Stay accountable.
The easiest person to let down is yourself; the hardest person to let down is someone else. Peer board members hold each other accountable for their commitments. They do this since they support each other, work together and try to help each group member address their challenges and take their business to the next level.
Although what lies ahead is uncertain, one thing is clear: by curating a community of support, advisors and mentors — whether, via a Board of Directors, accountability groups or peer-led support — entrepreneurs will be well-equipped to draw upon wisdom across industries and demographics to bolster each other and make better decisions to navigate the times ahead.
