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We usually have opinions. Today, we have predictions.
What’s ahead for 2026 in North Carolina? The Editorial Board has some thoughts. We’re sure you do, too. Send them our way, and buckle up for a consequential year.
Post-Helene politics change NC landscape
A botched federal response to Hurricane Helene will translate into political backlash in the 2026 elections.
Western North Carolina counties have long been Republican strongholds, but now many in the region are frustrated with the Trump administration’s neglect of hurricane relief. The inflationary effect of Trump’s tariffs, rising Affordable Care Act premiums and looming cuts in Medicaid and food assistance under Trumps’ “big beautiful bill” may add to the sour mood.
While Republican state lawmakers may be safe within gerrymandered districts, there could be GOP problems elsewhere. In the 11th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards will face a strong challenger in Democrat Jamie Ager, a farmer and western North Carolina native.
But: NC’s ‘blue wave’ might look more purple
Nationally, 2026 has the potential to be a “blue wave” election, and Democrats are hoping they can harness anti-Trump backlash to gain back some of the ground they’ve lost in recent cycles. In North Carolina, Democrats have their sights set high. They’re aiming to win their first U.S. Senate election in 18 years, defend and flip some gerrymandered congressional seats as well as reelect one of the last Democrats standing on the N.C. Supreme Court bench. They’ve also contested every single state legislative seat in hopes of keeping Republicans well short of a supermajority next year.
But in recent election cycles, North Carolina hasn’t done the best job at mirroring national trends. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats performed worse in North Carolina than they did across the country, and in 2024, North Carolina didn’t shift quite as far to the right as other states did. The state’s voting patterns are pretty calcified and not as likely to change with the political tides.
Does that mean that Democrats are doomed? No, but it does mean that the outcome will be about as unpredictable as it always is, and any expectations for a dramatic political shift should be somewhat tempered. There’s a good chance that North Carolina’s blue wave will look more purple.
A lopsided (so far) US Senate race
Roy Cooper has had a fortunate run. A flawed Republican candidate allowed him a comfortable reelection as North Carolina governor in 2020 despite his state voting again for Donald Trump as president. Now, as the certain Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, he’s avoiding incumbent Thom Tills, who decided against reelection.
Instead, Cooper is likely to face Michael Whatley, the former North Carolina GOP chair who has inspired few people beyond Donald Trump, who gave Whatley his endorsement. Cooper, a popular governor, is a skilled, disciplined politician who is unlikely to make the kind of blunder that gives Whatley’s candidacy life. The national economic and political climate isn’t likely to bring the turnout Whatley needs. Whatley’s campaign feels fatally flat, which might be why GOP firebrand Michele Morrow announced she’s entered the Republican primary.
A lot can change, including the economy. Save that, Cooper will be North Carolina’s next U.S. senator.
NC Republican infighting continues
Tensions among Republicans in the General Assembly have made it difficult for the House and Senate to agree on a state budget — North Carolina is the only state in the country that will enter the new year without a comprehensive spending plan.
It’s not just the budget, either. The past couple of years have been some of the least productive since Republicans took control of the General Assembly in 2011, at least in terms of the number of laws passed. There’s been more finger-pointing, more subtle jabs and more gridlock. Even with a near supermajority, Republicans have struggled to get some things done.
That may not resolve itself anytime soon. Even if Republicans do finally agree on a budget, the rifts and ideological differences that caused the delay will remain. There’s also some growing discontent with Republicans in Raleigh, which has led to an unusually high number of GOP incumbents facing primary challenges. In some cases, those primary challengers are backed by the incumbent’s own colleagues. Depending on how many of those challenges are successful, it could change the dynamics in Raleigh. That may force lawmakers to break the gridlock, but it also may deepen the divide.
Heatwaves ahead
Summer keeps getting hotter in North Carolina and summer 2026 will be another scorcher broken by more rain.
The National Climate Center forecast for June through August calls for temperatures and precipitation across the Southeast to be above normal.
North Carolina’s 2025 summer was among the five hottest on record. In Raleigh, it was the hottest, largely because night temperatures stayed well above normal. In Charlotte, it was the second-hottest summer.
Climate change skeptics are still out there, but after a rare hurricane in the mountains and Outer Banks houses falling into the sea, the effects of warmer air and oceans are becoming clear.
Next NC sports turnaround
Which team will follow the Carolina Panthers and go from bad to something less than bad? It could be the University of North Carolina football team, which had a chaotic first year under head coach Bill Belichick. College turnarounds are easier in the NIL era, but for that to happen at UNC, it would take Belichick acknowledging that coaching brilliance doesn’t get you as far as you think. It’s been a long while since he showed that kind of humility, as New England Patriots fans would be happy to tell you.
We think the next NC sports turnaround will come in Charlotte, where the NBA’s Hornets are doing a lot of the right things. They’ve made quietly strong trades and have promising draft capital. They have an exceptional rookie and fledgling leader in Duke’s Kon Knueppel. The framework is there for success, perhaps sooner than later if the team changes its culture and starts treating more games as big games instead of opportunities for extra rest and healing. It’s time.
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