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A document marked “top secret” that depicts the daily disposition of forces in Ukraine was leaked and has shown up on social media, a U.S. official confirmed.
This official said that someone apparently took a picture of the document and posted it on Telegram, a social media platform that has over 500 million users, and from there, it was picked up on Twitter. Pentagon officials are working to remove the classified information from social media.
A second official said the Pentagon is trying to determine how the material leaked and how serious the leak is.
And then, on Friday, classified government documents covering not only Ukraine, but other parts of the world started showing up on social media, suggesting that there has been a major compromise of Pentagon secrets.
A total of five slides — photographs of documents that had been folded and unfolded — were posted on a pro-Russian Telegram channel Thursday, and they appear authentic, although U.S. officials warned that some of them appeared to have been altered.
For instance, one of the slides says there have been 16,000-17,500 Russians killed in action, but U.S. defense officials have publicly said that Russia has suffered over 200,000 casualties. The documents that were posted are also more than a month old.
The Telegram account said that the posted documents described “a secret plan to prepare and equip nine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the US and NATO for the spring offensive.”
The White House National Security Council and intelligence community declined to comment and referred inquiries to the Defense Department. The New York Times first reported the leak.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the Department is reviewing the matter,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said.
In a second statement provided to CBS News later Friday night, Singh said the Defense Department “has made a formal referral to the Department of Justice for investigation.”
The leak occurred as Ukraine continues to prepare for its spring offensive against Russia. Earlier this week, the U.S. announced an additional $2.6 billion weapons package for Ukraine, containing munitions and air defense capabilities.
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United Nations – At an informal meeting boycotted by the U.S. and Britain’s ambassadors and labelled an abuse of Russia’s power as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council by over four dozen countries, Moscow’s Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights asserted Wednesday that Russia’s only motivation in removing children from Ukraine was to evacuate them from a dangerous war zone.
Maria Lvova-Belova, who gave the briefing remotely, is among the Russian officials, along with President Vladimir Putin, for whom an international court issued arrest warrants last month over the alleged forced deportation of Ukrainian children.
She told the Security Council members who did attend the meeting that there had been an “emergency character” to Russia’s actions, claiming it was necessary to “move these children from under shelling and move them to safe areas.”
Her claims contrasted starkly with evidence the International Criminal Court has received about the forced removal of children and infants from Ukraine. CBS News correspondent Chris Livesay spoke with Ukrainian children last year who were among the thousands allegedly taken from their country into Russia or Russian-occupied territory.
The boys CBS News met were rescued and had made their way back to Ukraine, but many others remain separated from their families. Livesay presented his report to the U.N. as it heard evidence.
“If she wants to give an account of her actions, she can do so in the Hague,” the U.K. Mission to the U.N. said in a statement, adding that “their briefer, Maria Lvova-Belova, is subject to an international arrest warrant from the ICC for her alleged responsibility in the war crimes of unlawful deportation and unlawful transfer of these children.”
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield told reporters before the meeting that Washington was firmly opposed to “a woman who has been charged with war crimes, who has been involved in deporting and removal of children from their homes to Russia,” being given any platform to defend the actions.
Russia convened the meeting just days after it took over the rotating monthly presidency of the Security Council.
Ukraine and the U.S. had warned that handing Russia the gavel to chair the council, the U.N.’s most powerful body, would provide President Vladimir Putin’s regime a greater platform to spread disinformation at a pivotal moment in his war against civilians in Ukraine.
“We strongly are opposed to that,” said Thomas-Greenfield. “And that’s why we’ve joined the U.K. in blocking UN WebTV from being used to allow her to have an international podium to spread disinformation and to try to defend her horrible actions that are taking place in Ukraine.”
Thomas-Greenfield, who did not attend the meeting, said, “We will have an expert sitting in the chair who has been instructed to walk out when the briefer that we’ve objected to is speaking.”
The ICC has received evidence that at least 6,000 Ukrainian children have been taken to camps and other facilities in Russia and Russian-occupied territory and subjected to pro-Russian re-education. They have in many cases been denied any contact with their families, according to a report from the Conflict Observatory, a research group that monitors alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s government puts the figure much higher, claiming to have documented 14,700 cases of children being deported, among some 100,000 who have been moved into Russia or Russian-occupied territory.
The ICC said in a statement in March, when it announced an international arrest warrant for Putin, that the Russian leader was “allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of (children) and that of unlawful transfer of (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.”
Russia’s U.N Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia complained about the U.S. and other nations boycotting the meeting on Wednesday, saying: “You know you’re not interested. Of course, it’s not very pleasant for you to hear this and compromise your narrative. You don’t need the truth.”
Britain’s ambassador James Kariuki said the fact that Russia had invited someone to address the council who had been indicted by the ICC, “speaks for itself.”
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It’s been a busy few months for China — and sobering ones for the United States.
Days later, Beijing announced it had brokered a deal that will see Persian Gulf rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran normalize relations, a shocking diplomatic coup in an area long dominated by the United States. Xi was reportedly personally involved in the negotiations.
“This landmark agreement has the potential to transform the Middle East by realigning its major powers,” the journal Foreign Affairs declared, adding that the gambit is “weaving the region into China’s global ambitions. For Beijing, the announcement was a great leap forward in its rivalry with Washington.”
But the biggest news came two weeks ago, when Xi flew to Moscow and met with Vladimir Putin, just days after the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president on charges of war crimes in Russia’s year-old invasion of Ukraine.
“ ‘China has seen a space where it is hard for the West to really block off — heading into issues [that the Western powers] feel are too intractable or too toxic to touch and trying to demonstrate that there might be a different way to mediate or involve yourself in these problems.’ ”
“There are changes coming that haven’t happened in 100 years,” Xi told Putin as the self-described “dear friends” concluded their talks. “When we are together, we are driving these changes.”
China’s assertiveness comes after three years of COVID restrictions that saw the country close off from the world in an attempt to tame the virus, a policy that was suddenly scrapped in December.
“It has sunk in that China needs friends. It has ended up too isolated, and that has cut across the narrative of the Xi third term, which was due to be somewhat more sunny,” Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, told MarketWatch.
Others agreed. “China certainly is exiting a period of diplomatic isolation during the height of COVID,” said Victor Shih, the Ho Miu Lam chair in China and Pacific relations at the University of California, San Diego, and an expert on Chinese elite politics.
That exit has been swift, with Beijing taking concrete steps toward a belief that previously had been mostly rhetoric — that the U.S.-led global system is not the only path.
“China has seen a space where it is hard for the West to really block off — heading into issues [that the Western powers] feel are too intractable or too toxic to touch and trying to demonstrate that there might be a different way to mediate or involve yourself in these problems,” Brown said.
Those sentiments are increasingly pervasive across China, particularly in government, academia and media.
“The U.S., which is accustomed to enjoying the spotlight, is now puzzled for it never thought that one day China would be more popular than it,” state tabloid Global Times said in a front-page story last Thursday.
Wang Yong, director of the Center for International Political Economy and the Center for American Studies at Peking University, told MarketWatch, “The rise of China as a great power is facing an increasingly complicated situation, mainly because U.S. elites judge China as the foremost strategic and systemic threat, and attack China’s development.”
Wang highlighted concerns over Washington’s policy toward self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a renegade province.
In fact, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is stopping over in the U.S. this week after visits to the island’s few remaining allies in Central America. Beijing has threatened for weeks against her being welcomed by any high-level American officials.
Those threats turned to ire on Monday, when Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he would meet with Tsai on Wednesday in California. China said this could lead to “serious confrontation” and that Beijing would “resolutely fight back” — without giving specifics.
“ ‘Why is it assumed we live in a U.S. world?’ ”
“Gradually deviating from the past promise of ‘one China,’ promoting Taiwan independence and using Taiwan to contain China’s development — these could trigger a China-U.S. war,” Peking University’s Wang said from Beijing.
See: U.S. tells China not to ‘overreact’ to Taiwan leader’s stopover
Average citizens including younger people expressed frustration with U.S. policy.
AP/John Minchillo
“Why isn’t it China’s time to lead? Why is it assumed we live in a U.S. world?” asked 27-year-old Alan Ma, a graduate student in politics at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.
Other areas are reaching heightened levels of tension. China’s military said last month it drove out an American destroyer ship that had “illegally” entered the South China Sea. And the CEO of Chinese-owned video sensation TikTok appeared before U.S. lawmakers in hopes of preventing an American ban on the app over national-security concerns.
Context: Biden White House and bipartisan group of 12 senators back TikTok ban
Also: TikTok is the next Chinese product the U.S. could shoot down
But China’s rise, however rapid, must be put in a realistic context, experts said.
“I don’t think that we can say China has entered a new period as a global power until it has deployed large troop contingents overseas on its own,” said UC San Diego’s Shih.
Tanner Brown covers China for MarketWatch and Barron’s.
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Cet article est aussi disponible en français.
ABOARD COTAM UNITÉ (FRANCE’S AIR FORCE ONE) — Europe must reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview on his plane back from a three-day state visit to China.
Speaking with POLITICO and two French journalists after spending around six hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his trip, Macron emphasized his pet theory of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, presumably led by France, to become a “third superpower.”
He said “the great risk” Europe faces is that it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy,” while flying from Beijing to Guangzhou, in southern China, aboard COTAM Unité, France’s Air Force One.
Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party have enthusiastically endorsed Macron’s concept of strategic autonomy and Chinese officials constantly refer to it in their dealings with European countries. Party leaders and theorists in Beijing are convinced the West is in decline and China is on the ascendant and that weakening the transatlantic relationship will help accelerate this trend.
“The paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers,” Macron said in the interview. “The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” he said.
Just hours after his flight left Guangzhou headed back to Paris, China launched large military exercises around the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory but the U.S. has promised to arm and defend.
Those exercises were a response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen’s 10-day diplomatic tour of Central American countries that included a meeting with Republican U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy while she transited in California. People familiar with Macron’s thinking said he was happy Beijing had at least waited until he was out of Chinese airspace before launching the simulated “Taiwan encirclement” exercise.
Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade in recent years and has a policy of isolating the democratic island by forcing other countries to recognize it as part of “one China.”
Macron and Xi discussed Taiwan “intensely,” according to French officials accompanying the president, who appears to have taken a more conciliatory approach than the U.S. or even the European Union.
“Stability in the Taiwan Strait is of paramount importance,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who accompanied Macron for part of his visit, said she told Xi during their meeting in Beijing last Thursday. “The threat [of] the use of force to change the status quo is unacceptable.”
Xi responded by saying anyone who thought they could influence Beijing on Taiwan was deluded.
Macron appears to agree with that assessment.
“Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say on Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it,” he said.
“Europe is more willing to accept a world in which China becomes a regional hegemon,” said Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. “Some of its leaders even believe such a world order may be more advantageous to Europe.”
In his trilateral meeting with Macron and von der Leyen last Thursday in Beijing, Xi Jinping went off script on only two topics — Ukraine and Taiwan — according to someone who was present in the room.
“Xi was visibly annoyed for being held responsible for the Ukraine conflict and he downplayed his recent visit to Moscow,” this person said. “He was clearly enraged by the U.S. and very upset over Taiwan, by the Taiwanese president’s transit through the U.S. and [the fact that] foreign policy issues were being raised by Europeans.”
In this meeting, Macron and von der Leyen took similar lines on Taiwan, this person said. But Macron subsequently spent more than four hours with the Chinese leader, much of it with only translators present, and his tone was far more conciliatory than von der Leyen’s when speaking with journalists.
Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries.
He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing.
“If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won’t have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said.
Russia, China, Iran and other countries have been hit by U.S. sanctions in recent years that are based on denying access to the dominant dollar-denominated global financial system. Some in Europe have complained about “weaponization” of the dollar by Washington, which forces European companies to give up business and cut ties with third countries or face crippling secondary sanctions.
While sitting in the stateroom of his A330 aircraft in a hoodie with the words “French Tech” emblazoned on the chest, Macron claimed to have already “won the ideological battle on strategic autonomy” for Europe.
He did not address the question of ongoing U.S. security guarantees for the Continent, which relies heavily on American defense assistance amid the first major land war in Europe since World War II.
As one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and the only nuclear power in the EU, France is in a unique position militarily. However, the country has contributed far less to the defense of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion than many other countries.
As is common in France and many other European countries, the French President’s office, known as the Elysée Palace, insisted on checking and “proofreading” all the president’s quotes to be published in this article as a condition of granting the interview. This violates POLITICO’s editorial standards and policy, but we agreed to the terms in order to speak directly with the French president. POLITICO insisted that it cannot deceive its readers and would not publish anything the president did not say. The quotes in this article were all actually said by the president, but some parts of the interview in which the president spoke even more frankly about Taiwan and Europe’s strategic autonomy were cut out by the Elysée.
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Russian law enforcement on Monday detained a young woman suspected of bombing a St. Petersburg cafe, in which a pro-Kremlin military blogger was killed and dozens injured on Sunday, according to media reports.
In a video from the interior ministry published by state news agency TASS, a woman presented as Darya Trepova can be heard saying she “brought a statuette” inside the cafe, which “later exploded.”
She said she had been arrested for “being present at the place” where the bombing occurred.
POLITICO was not able to independently verify whether Trepova’s statement was made under duress.
Trepova was reportedly detained for several days last year for taking part in a protest against the war in Ukraine on the day Russia’s full-scale invasion started.
Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was killed by the St. Petersburg cafe blast, which also injured 25 people according to Reuters.
Tatarsky — whose real name was Maxim Fomin — was part of a group of high-profile influencers filing reports on the Ukraine war. He had more than half a million followers on Telegram.
According to AP, Tatarsky utilized “ardent pro-war rhetoric” in favor of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Russia’s top investigative body announced Monday it had opened a probe into the bombing, which it labeled a “high-profile murder.”
The state-controlled Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee called the bombing a “terrorist act” and accused Ukraine’s special service of planning the attack.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, tweeted that Russia had “returned to the Soviet classics: isolation … espionage … political repression.”
This is the second time a pro-Kremlin media figure has been killed on Russian soil since the invasion began.
Last August, Darya Dugina — who was under U.S. sanctions for spreading misinformation about the war — was killed in a car bombing.
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The French government denied on Saturday that French soldiers were on the ground in Ukraine, Le Monde reported.
“There are no French forces engaged in operations in Ukraine,” the team of Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu told the French outlet.
A trove of leaked documents detailing plans about Ukraine’s spring military offensive and circulating online reportedly imply that French soldiers are present on the battlefield in Ukraine. According to the Guardian, “one slide suggested that a small contingent of less than a hundred special operations personnel from NATO members France, America, Britain and Latvia were already active in Ukraine.”
The material reportedly also includes information on Ukraine’s readiness and training capabilities as well as death tolls.
It’s unclear who originally obtained and leaked the documents, and the extent to which they may have been altered. It could also be “a Russian disinformation operation,” U.S. officials said.
“The documents cited do not come from the French military. We do not comment on documents whose source is uncertain,” Lecornu’s team also told Le Monde.
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping had one overriding message for his visiting French counterpart Emmanuel Macron this week: Don’t let Europe get sucked into playing America’s game.
Beijing is eager to avoid the EU falling further under U.S. influence, at a time when the White House is pursuing a more assertive policy to counter China’s geopolitical and military strength.
Russia’s yearlong war against Ukraine has strengthened the alliance between Europe and the U.S., shaken up global trade, reinvigorated NATO and forced governments to look at what else could suddenly go wrong in world affairs. That’s not welcome in Beijing, which still views Washington as its strategic nemesis.
This week, China’s counter-offensive stepped up a gear, turning on the charm. Xi welcomed Macron into the grandest of settings at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, along with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. This was in sharp contrast to China’s current efforts to keep senior American officials at arm’s length, especially since U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called off a trip to Beijing during the spy balloon drama earlier this year.
Both American and Chinese officials know Europe’s policy toward Beijing is far from settled. That’s an opportunity, and a risk for both sides. In recent months, U.S. officials have warned of China’s willingness to send weapons to Russia and talked up the dangers of allowing Chinese tech companies unfettered access to European markets, with some success.
TikTok, which is ultimately Chinese owned, has been banned from government and administrative phones in a number of locations in Europe, including in the EU institutions in Brussels. American pressure also led the Dutch to put new export controls on sales of advanced semiconductor equipment to China.
Yet even the hawkish von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, has dismissed the notion of decoupling Europe from China’s economy altogether. From Beijing’s perspective, this is yet another significant difference from the hostile commercial environment being promoted by the U.S.
Just this week, 36 Chinese and French businesses signed new deals in front of Macron and Xi, in what Chinese state media said was a sign of “the not declining confidence in the Chinese market of European businesses.” While hardly a statement brimming with confidence, it could have been worse.
For the last couple of years European leaders have grown more skeptical of China’s trajectory, voicing dismay at Beijing’s way of handling the coronavirus pandemic, the treatment of protesters in Hong Kong and Xinjiang’s Uyghur Muslims, as well as China’s sanctions on European politicians and military threats against Taiwan.
Then, Xi and Vladimir Putin hailed a “no limits” partnership just days before Russia invaded Ukraine. While the West rolled out tough sanctions on Moscow, China became the last major economy still interested in maintaining — and expanding — trade ties with Russia. That shocked many Western officials and provoked a fierce debate in Europe over how to punish Beijing and how far to pull out of Chinese commerce.
Beijing saw Macron as the natural partner to help avoid a nosedive in EU-China relations, especially since Angela Merkel — its previous favorite — was no longer German chancellor.
Macron’s willingness to engage with anyone — including his much-criticized contacts with Putin ahead of his war on Ukraine — made him especially appealing as Beijing sought to drive a wedge between European and American strategies on China.
“I’m very glad we share many identical or similar views on Sino-French, Sino-EU, international and regional issues,” Xi told Macron over tea on Friday, in the southern metropolis of Guangzhou, according to Chinese state media Xinhua.
Strategic autonomy, a French foreign policy focus, is a favorite for China, which sees the notion as proof of Europe’s distance from the U.S. For his part, Macron told Xi a day earlier that France promotes “European strategic autonomy,” doesn’t like “bloc confrontation” and believes in doing its own thing. “France does not pick sides,” he said.
The French position is challenged by some in Europe who see it as an urgent task to take a tougher approach toward Beijing.
“Macron could have easily avoided the dismal picture of European and transatlantic disunity,” said Thorsten Benner, director of the Berlin-based Global Public Policy Institute. “Nobody forced Macron to show up with a huge business delegation, repeating disproven illusions of reciprocity and deluding himself about working his personal magic on Xi to get the Chinese leader to turn against Putin.”
Holger Hestermeyer, a professor of EU law at King’s College London, said Beijing will struggle to split the transatlantic alliance.
“If China wants to succeed with building a new world order, separating the EU from the U.S. — even a little bit — would be a prized goal — and mind you, probably an elusive one,” Hestermeyer said. “Right now the EU is strengthening its defenses specifically because China tried to play divide and conquer with the EU in the past.”
Xi’s focus on America was unmistakable when he veered into a topic that was a long way from Europe’s top priority, during his three-way meeting with Macron and von der Leyen. A week earlier the Biden administration had held its second Summit for Democracy, in which Russia and China were portrayed as the main threats.
“Spreading the so-called ‘democracy versus authoritarianism’ [narrative],” Xi told his European guests on Thursday, “would only bring division and confrontation to the world.”
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The Kremlin didn’t waste time blaming Ukraine for orchestrating the weekend bombing of a cafe in St. Petersburg, leaving what they claimed was 40 injured and high-profile ultranationalist military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky dead.
And Ukrainian officials were no less firm batting away the charge.
They blamed an “internal political fight” for the blast just a mile from where Vladimir Putin’s ex-wife lives in the historic heart of the Russian president’s hometown.
“Spiders are eating each other in a jar,” tweeted Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak.
Who should one believe?
“Every day in Russia, it’s a thriller series,” noted Ksenia Sobchak on her Telegram channel. The former Russian presidential candidate and self-exiled daughter of Putin’s onetime patron, Anatoly Sobchak, St. Petersburg’s first post-Soviet mayor, understands better than most that things are seldom as they seem in Putin’s Russia — if ever.
As in any good thriller, the assassination of Tatarsky boasts a cast of colorful characters, an enigmatic figure at the center, rollercoaster twists and turns, as well as distracting sub-plots delaying the denouement.
But in this whodunnit — as with so many in Russia — in the end we’re unlikely to discover the real identity of the murderer or their motives.
Like with the car bombing in August on the outskirts of Moscow of commentator Darya Dugina, daughter of Alexander Dugin, an ultranationalist ideologue, the list of possible perps is long. But that aside, little is certain or reliable — despite the wealth of CCTV footage that’s been released and the surprisingly quick arrest of a 26-year-old, Darya Trepova, until recently an assistant at a vintage clothing store.
She was seen giving Tatarsky a plaster figurine, which Russian investigators say was packed with TNT. In a video released by Russian authorities, Trepova is heard saying she “brought a statuette” inside the cafe, which “later exploded,” adding she would prefer to say later who asked her to give the blogger the gift. It is unclear whether Trepova was making her remarks under duress.
Last year, Trepova, who is married but separated from her husband according to two friends who spoke with POLITICO, was jailed for 10 days for protesting against Russia’s war on Ukraine. But for many reasons, she seems an unlikely bomber and was pictured leaving the cafe, Street Food Bar No 1 — once owned by Wagner paramilitary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and now run by his former son-in-law — as shocked and dazed as others caught in the blast.
Her friends, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, fearing they could be ensnared in the anti-terrorist investigation, say they find it unlikely she knew about the bomb, and her estranged husband, Dmitry Rylov, told a Russian media outlet that killing is just not in her character. “I am fully confident that she never could have done something like that willingly,” he said. “My wife was set up because she would never kill anyone.”
But that isn’t stopping Kremlin officials from painting her as a killer doing the bidding of Ukrainians in league with Russia’s anti-Putin opposition.
“The Kyiv regime supports terrorist actions,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow just hours after the dust had settled on the second assassination on Russian soil of a prominent advocate of the war on Ukraine.
And Russia’s National Anti-Terrorist Committee said the bombing was “planned by Ukrainian special services,” noting Trepova was an “active supporter” of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Opposition activist Ivan Zhdanov has warned that Russian authorities are likely to push the “Navalny narrative” to discredit dissidents and set the stage for show trials, including another one against the imprisoned opposition leader with the goal of extending his nine-year prison sentence.
Amid all the speculation and counter-narratives being hurled around, things are getting very murky.
Midweek, Ilya Ponomarev, a former Russian lawmaker turned dissident who lives in Kyiv, posted a statement from a mysterious group, the National Republican Army, saying it was responsible for the bombing of Trepova, “the well-known warmonger and war propagandist.”
The NRA, which also claimed responsibility for Dugina’s assassination, said: “This action was prepared and carried out by us autonomously, and we have no connection and have not received assistance from any foreign structures, let alone special services.”
But as with the Dugina bombing, the group offered nothing concrete to prove they were behind Tatarsky’s killing, and the claim is being greeted with skepticism by security experts.
The famed blogger was assassinated while giving a talk at the cafe on how Russian war correspondents and bloggers should write about the conflict. The event was hosted by the ultranationalist group Cyber Front Z, which said it had hired the cafe for the evening. “There was a terrorist attack. We took certain security measures but unfortunately, they were not enough,” the group said on Telegram.
Maxim Fomin, who was born into a miner’s family in Donetsk in 1982, chose to write under a nom de plume — Vladlen Tatarsky is a character in a novel by Victor Pelevin. He worked a variety of jobs, including in the mines, before being arrested for bank robbery. His nine-year prison sentence was curtailed when he was pardoned in 2014 by the self-styled head of the separatist “Donetsk Republic,” Alexander Zakharchenko. Tatarsky then enlisted in a local pro-Russia militia.
By 2016 he was blogging a thuggish but supercharged Russian nationalistic take on what it was like to fight in Donbas, relishing the violence, looting and drinking while cautioning would-be volunteers, “before you go to war, ask yourself if you really want to look into the abyss.”
Last year Tatarsky clocked up more than half a million subscribers to his Telegram channel. There they could read his gung-ho, macho chronicles of war, including his own experiences fighting, and rants against Ukraine. “Ukrainians should be cured of their Russophobia and nationalism, as our own forefathers once cured the excellent country called Germany of its mad Führer and his ideas,” he wrote.

Tatarsky became a star draw on Russia’s state television and last year he attended a Kremlin ceremony marking the illegal annexation of seized Ukrainian territory. In a video he posted from the event, he announced: “We’ll triumph over everyone, kill everyone, loot everything we want.”
While backing wholeheartedly the war on Ukraine, Tatarsky was, like other ultranationalists, increasingly vitriolic about the poor tactics of Russia’s generals, labeling them “idiots” and backing Prigozhin in the war of words between the Wagner boss and the country’s defense chiefs.
Some local media reports suggest Prigozhin was due to attend Tatarsky’s talk on Sunday, although the paramilitary leader made no mention of that on his Telegram channel when lamenting Tatarsky’s death.
Prigozhin also dismissed the idea that Ukraine had a hand in the killing of the solider-cum-blogger, saying, “I would not blame the Kyiv regime for these actions.” He suggested the killing was carried out by “a group of radicals,” but enigmatically added they’re “hardly related to the government,” as in the Russian government, leaving it hanging as to whether they had any such ties.
His remark has fueled speculation that the FSB or another Russian intelligence service may have had a hand in the blast, either tricking anti-Putin activists into a so-called false flag operation or partnering with some others in the fratricidal world of Russian ultranationalism to kill Tatarsky and blame it on Kyiv and Navalny. According to this theory, the FSB has a vested interest in disciplining Prigozhin — bombing the cafe associated with him sends a warning not to step too far out of line with his attacks on defense chiefs.
So how does Trepova fit into all of this? The very few friends willing to talk with the media say she could well have been conned into taking the figurine into the cafe. Some analysts agree. “It cannot be excluded that she did not know about the bomb,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder and head of R.Politik, a think tank. “Her subsequent actions suggest that no one had prepared her for a quick escape after the attack, which means she may have been used unwittingly.”
The video of Trepova looking as stunned as others struggling away from the bombed cafe goes some way to supporting that idea. She also hardly fits the profile of a determined bomber or even much of a radical, reading through her social media posts before many were expunged since she was detained very quickly after the bombing.
According to the Telegram-based independent news site Baza, she was known in St. Petersburg as a feminist and activist. But her posts on Vkontakte, or VK, a Russian equivalent of Facebook, included mainly selfies and angst-ridden remarks about her life and very little on social or political issues. She comes across as much younger than a twenty-something, more like a teenager.
The two friends who spoke to POLITICO agree, saying she was mainly interested in fashion and the cinema, could be flighty and entered lightly into her marriage, which fell apart quickly. A month ago, she abruptly decided to give up her job and move to Moscow, mentioning some kind of lucrative job. She only returned to St. Petersburg a few days before the bombing and stayed at a friend’s apartment. Her mother told reporters she saw her daughter just hours before the blast and she seemed her normal self.
There are also some suspicious anomalies, including the quickness of her identification, the speedy interrogations of her mother and sister, and her own arrest — all in a matter of hours after the bombing.
Russian security sources told RBC that they aren’t ruling out Trepova was manipulated. Nonetheless, on Tuesday she was charged with carrying out a terror attack and illegally carrying an explosive device for an organized group.
That still leaves a question: Who was this group? And then we go back into the dizzying narratives.
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Jamie Dettmer
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BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping showed no sign of changing his position over Russia’s war on Ukraine after talks Thursday with French counterpart Emmanuel Macron.
On the second day of Macron’s state visit to China, Xi took his long-standing line on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — saying that “all sides” have “reasonable security concerns” — and gave no hint he would use his influence to help end the conflict.
“China is willing to jointly appeal with France to the international community to remain rational and calm,” was as far as the Chinese leader would go during a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
“Peace talks should be resumed as soon as possible, taking into account the reasonable security concerns of all sides with reference to the U.N. Charter … seeking political resolution and constructing a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework,” he added, sitting next to Macron.
The French president arrived in China on Wednesday in the hope of pushing China to use its leverage with Russia to end the conflict, and to get Beijing to speak out against the Kremlin’s threat to host nuclear missiles in Belarus.
During his private meeting with Xi, Macron raised Western concerns that Beijing will deliver weapons to Russia, according to a French diplomat with knowledge of the talks. But the French leader didn’t seem to get far.
“The president urged Xi not to make deliveries to Russia that would help its war against Ukraine. Xi said this war is not his,” the diplomat said, speaking anonymously to describe the private session.
The talks — which an Elysée Palace official nonetheless described as “frank and constructive” — ultimately lasted an hour and a half.
Afterward, the action moved to a signing ceremony, where officials and business leaders inked several deals, including the sale of 160 Airbus aircraft. According to the Elysée, the Chinese government approved the purchase of 150 A320 Neo planes and 10 A350s — a delivery that was part of a €36-billion deal Airbus announced last year. The information contradicted previous information from an Elysée official, who said a new sale was being negotiated.
During the deal-signing ceremony, every Chinese minister and business executive bowed deeply to Xi before signing the contracts with their French counterparts.
Xi and Macron then stepped in for their joint appearance, billed as a “press conference with Communist characteristics” — essentially meaning no press questions allowed.
The two leaders’ contrasting styles were immediately apparent. Xi read his carefully scripted remarks while staring straight ahead before ceding to Macron. The French leader then proceeded to speak for roughly twice as long as his host — a protocol faux pas that members of Xi’s Chinese entourage noticed.
Xi himself at times looked impatient and annoyed as Macron continued speaking. The Chinese leader heaved several deep sighs and appeared uncomfortable as Macron addressed him directly while apparently ad-libbing on the Ukraine war and their joint responsibility to uphold peace.
Macron also appealed to Xi to explicitly condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
“Speaking about peace and stability means talking about the war waged by Russia against Ukraine. You’ve made some important comments,” the French leader said. “This is a war that involves all of us because a member of the Security Council has decided to violate the U.N. charter. We cannot accept that.”
French lawmaker Anne Genetet, who also held talks Thursday with Chinese officials, admitted there were “no surprises” in the Chinese position on Ukraine, but argued it was still useful to lay some groundwork on the issue.
“It’s the beginning,” Genetet said. “There will be more talks and some private moments [between Xi and Macron]. Maybe we’ll get some other messages.”
Xi and Macron will head to the Chinese city of Guangzhou on Friday, where they will hold more talks and a private dinner.
However, in what will be read as a concession to the French, Xi did talk about the need for the warring parties to “protect victims including women and children,” which comes after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin over his role in illegally transferring Ukrainian children to Russia.
Xi didn’t explicitly mention Russia in his remarks, though. And in a move likely to irk U.S. officials, Xi also said that China and France should “resume exchanges between the legislative bodies and militaries.” He then included France in a common refrain that Chinese officials use to criticize the U.S.
“China and France shall continue to … oppose Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation, joining hands in addressing all types of global challenges,” Xi said.
On Thursday, Xi also held talks with Macron and with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was invited by Macron to showcase European unity but who will not take part in many of the events between the Chinese and French leaders.
Indeed, von der Leyen held her own solo press conference as night fell on Thursday in Beijing. Unencumbered by the formalities of a state visit, the EU leader took questions from reporters and sent several pointed messages to Beijing.
She warned it against aiding Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine: “Arming the aggressor is a clear violation of international law — he should never be armed,” she said. “This would indeed significantly harm the relationship between the European Union and China.”
And she touched a diplomatic third rail: Taiwan.
“Nobody should unilaterally change the status quo by force in this region,” she said, alluding to China’s threats toward the self-governing island. “The threat of the use of force to change the status quo is unacceptable.”
Von der Leyen did echo Macron’s message, however, that China could play an important role in Ukraine, calling Beijing’s stance “crucial.”
She added: “We expect China will play its role and promote a just peace, one that respects Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.”
Clea Caulcutt and Jamil Anderlini reported from Beijing. Stuart Lau reported from Brussels.
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Clea Caulcutt, Jamil Anderlini and Stuart Lau
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A portrait of Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, whose real name is Maxim Fomin, who was killed in the April 2 bomb blast in a cafe, is seen among flowers at a makeshift memorial by the explosion site in Saint Petersburg on April 3, 2023.
Olga Maltseva | Afp | Getty Images
Russia’s high-profile camp of pro-war, nationalist commentators looks suddenly vulnerable after the death of one of the country’s most influential military bloggers, analysts say.
The death of Vladlen Tatarsky following an explosion at a cafe in St Petersburg on Sunday has dominated headlines in Russia and beyond. The blast killed Tatarsky and injured at least 30 others, the authorities said, before detaining a woman on suspicion of involvement in what they described as a “high-profile murder.”
The death also sent shockwaves through Russia’s pro-war commentariat which has burgeoned since Russia invaded Ukraine over a year ago. The online community is now asking why Tatarsky was targeted, and by whom.
Tatarsky was one of Russia’s more prominent and outspoken pro-war bloggers, with 572,000 followers on the popular messaging app Telegram. Unlike many others in Russia, however, Tatarsky — whose real name was Maxim Fomin — had the added kudos of having fought on the frontline in Ukraine with pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk, where he was born in 1982.
Nonetheless, Tatarsky had been critical of Russia’s military command and the Ministry of Defense, putting him in the same camp as Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s Wagner Group of mercenaries fighting in east Ukraine. The two had ties and were among a group of ultranationalist pro-war voices calling for more aggressive military tactics in Ukraine.
Despite criticizing some elements of Russia’s military strategy, Tatarsky appeared to be moving in high circles; in one video published last September he was seen inside the Kremlin for an event marking the illegal annexation of more Ukrainian territory. Tatarsky commented to the camera: “We will defeat everyone, we will kill everyone, we will rob everyone as necessary. Just as we like it.”
Tatarsky’s death is the second apparent assassination of a prominent Russian pro-war commentator on home soil.
Last August, Darya Dugina — daughter of ultranationalist philosopher Aleksandr Dugin and a supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the invasion of Ukraine — was killed in a car bomb on the outskirts of Moscow. It’s widely believed that her father was the intended target of the attack.
Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya told CNBC that Tatarsky’s death was likely to leave Russia’s “patriotic camp” — in which Dugina and Tatarsky were firmly entrenched before their deaths — feeling exposed and potentially at risk.
“They feel vulnerable, not only in front of Ukrainian possible attacks, but also in the face of Russian security services who fail, in fact, to protect them from possible such incidents,” she told CNBC Monday.
“The problem is that Russia is becoming much more vulnerable to such attacks, and the authorities do not really want to increase public attention to such incidents, [but] rather to downplay it.”
A police officer stands guard at the scene of the cafe explosion in which Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky, (real name Maxim Fomin) was killed the day before in Saint Petersburg, Russia April 3, 2023.
Anton Vaganov | Reuters
Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, added that ultranationalist military bloggers and commentators now want the Kremlin to double down on its aggression toward Ukraine as a result of Tatarsky’s death.
“It’s so shocking the way the authorities react, for them,” she said. “They believe that the Kremlin should go harder on Ukraine — to investigate, to answer in the most aggressive way — but they do not see it [being done] so it makes them feel vulnerable.”
Russian investigators responded quickly following Tatarsky’s death and within hours had detained a woman called Darya Trepova, reputed to be an anti-war campaigner. The interior ministry released a video in which Trepova was seen being questioned about the incident, although her husband Dmitry Rylov has since said he believes his wife has been framed.
On Monday, the Kremlin described the bombing as a “terrorist act,” and said it would be tightening security measures ahead of its annual Victory Day military parade next month. Russia’s National Anti-terrorism Committee accused Ukraine’s special services of playing a role in the plan to kill Tatarsky, claiming Ukraine had collaborated with the Anti-Corruption Foundation, a campaign group set up by jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny and since banned by Russia.
But political and defense analysts note that Russia could potentially be behind the killing, given the growing tensions between its political establishment and the blogosphere over the country’s military tactics.
In recent months, that antagonism has become increasingly public with Prigozhin claiming that the military’s refusal to supply ammunition to his mercenary fighters battling in Donetsk could be “treason.”
A leading Russian military blogger was killed on April 2, 2023 in an explosion in Russia’s second-largest city of St. Petersburg, the interior ministry said.
Olga Maltseva | AFP | Getty Images
In fact, Tatarsky was killed in a bar that belonged to Prigozhin and some analysts are questioning whether the bombing was intended as a sign that Putin’s tolerance of criticism of the military operation is over.
“Fomin’s [Tatarsky’s] assassination could be evidence that Putin’s tolerance toward these milbloggers, in general, is waning, but it could also have resulted instead from Fomin’s [Tatarsky’s] proximity to Prigozhin,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted Sunday.
The ISW said that Tatarsky shared his ideology and activities with many other Russian milbloggers and so there was no reason for Kyiv to have singled him out as a “target worthy of special attention.”
For Russia, however, his “assassination at Prigozhin’s bar is likely part of a larger pattern of escalating Russian internal conflicts involving Prigozhin and Wagner,” the ISW said.
Ukrainian presidential advisor, Mikhailo Podolyak, agreed that the explosion reflected internal political strife in Russia, noting that “spiders are eating each other in a jar” and that it had always been a matter of time before domestic terrorism became “an instrument of internal political fight.”
CNBC contacted the Kremlin for a response to the comments, as well as the Ukrainian government following Moscow’s accusations that it was involved in Tatarsky’s death, and is awaiting responses.
On Monday, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy said he was “not thinking about what is going on in St Petersburg or in Moscow,” adding that “Russia has to think about their cities. I am thinking about our country and our cities.”
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Lviv, Ukraine – Nelly Nelson, a Cameroonian entrepreneur and English teacher, had not wanted to leave his adopted hometown of Lviv in western Ukraine when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country in February last year.
“I was not that scared,” the 29-year-old recalls. “Where I am from, there is an expression: don’t run from what you don’t know.”
Nelson, who was born and raised in the city of Buea, in southwest Cameroon, first came to Ukraine in late 2018 to visit his older sister who was studying at a medical university in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the northeast of the country. He initially found it “cold and bleak”, but a second visit the following year during the warmer months to Lviv, where his sister had moved for further studies, drastically changed his view of the country. It appeared much friendlier and warmer than on his first visit, and he decided to stay and look for work.
“Lviv is the best city in Ukraine,” he says as he sips on a juice in one of the city’s trendy cafés. His warm, welcoming nature is immediately apparent as he politely places an order from the waitress in Ukrainian. “You can start a conversation with anyone. If you are lost, people will walk you to where you need to go.” He recalls once asking a middle-aged man for directions in Kharkiv. “He just avoided me, so I had to call a taxi.”
In Lviv, Nelson began working as an online English tutor, earning roughly $700 a month, enough to lead a comfortable life. He also rented an apartment – near to his sister, her husband, and his three-year-old niece – from a friendly landlord, Roman, who would become a “father figure” to Nelson.
In January 2022, he met his current girlfriend, a Ukrainian who had grown up near Lviv, on a dating app. Surrounded by people he cared about and with a regular income, he felt settled. He had found his new home.
Then, on February 14, 2022, the US closed its embassy in the capital, Kyiv. Nelson, who had been following the news closely, says he knew “this meant something was going to happen”.
With more than 100,000 Russian troops amassed around Ukraine’s border and talk of a looming invasion, he paid Roman three months’ worth of rent in advance so he and his girlfriend were guaranteed a roof over their heads in the event of war and stocked up on essentials like water and canned food.
Ten days later, on February 24, the invasion began. Throughout the day his sister received a series of anxiety-inducing calls from her friends in Kharkiv. They spoke of terrifying explosions and a mass exodus from the city as Russian troops laid siege to the surrounding areas.
Nelson tried to convince her not to panic. Lviv was only 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border – if Russian troops came to the city, they would simply jump in their cars and drive to the border, he explained.
But later that day, their father called and scolded him for planning to remain in the country. “Are you stupid? Leave now!” he said.
“In our culture, you respect your elders, even if they are a day older. I have three siblings and am the youngest. That was that,” he explains.
Nelson, his girlfriend, and two friends crammed into his red Ford sedan and set off for the border. “I only packed a few things, some clothes, my computer. I knew I would return,” he recalls.

Fifteen kilometres (nine miles) from the border they arrived at the city of Yavoriv, home to a military base that would be destroyed by Russian missiles a few weeks later.
There they met a traffic jam that snaked all the way up to the border and signalled what Nelson describes as “one of the most difficult situations in my life”.
He recalls seeing parents hunched under the weight of enormous bags, their sleep-deprived children walking behind them, while others were carrying elderly relatives on their backs as they passed the seemingly never-ending line of cars. The queue would edge forward a few metres every few minutes. The constant stop-start was exhausting for Nelson who was driving, and they worried they would never reach the border. Some people who had given up hope of reaching the border left their vehicles abandoned by the side of the road.
As he sat in the driver’s seat, Nelson spotted a heavily pregnant woman walking alongside her husband who was struggling to carry two heavy bags and their young son. He sprung out of the car, and told them they had space for the woman. The husband peered into the car. He was reluctant to trust four strangers but eventually warmed to Nelson’s friendly demeanour. The two men exchanged details as Nelson’s partner and the other passengers welcomed their guest into the car.
Finally, after three days in the vehicle, they crossed the border. Their passenger was overjoyed to be reunited with her husband and child who had made it over by foot 24 hours earlier and expressed heartfelt gratitude to Nelson and his friends.

Exhausted, the group set off for Krakow, Poland’s picturesque second-largest city, where Nelson’s friend, who was also an English tutor, had a student who had offered them a place to stay.
After staying in Poland for a week, the group decided to move on, travelling through several countries, including Germany and Belgium, before eventually deciding to stop in Basel, Switzerland. Nelson had a friend in the city who could help them settle in. He also wanted to be close to his sister who had moved there from Ukraine as she felt it would be safe for her child.
They spent about a week in a centre for refugees. Nelson describes the place as a “prison”, shaking his head as he recalls the experience. “You had to show ID constantly, before you went out, even when you would have breakfast, lunch or dinner.” He also says there were tensions as Syrian refugees expressed frustration that the “process for Ukrainian refugees was smoother than for other refugees escaping war”.
After more than a week of processing their documents, Nelson and his girlfriend were housed in an apartment and provided roughly $400 dollars per month for expenses.
Although he is grateful for this set-up, he says that it was not enough for life in Switzerland which has one of the most expensive costs of living in Europe. He realised he would need to find another job just to cover basic expenses – his previous income from online tutoring would not be enough if they planned to stay for the long term. So, he applied for jobs for almost two months, using vital savings on expensive internet data, and struggling to adapt to a new, strict system with many jobs requiring a special permit and fluency in German. He barely received a response, leaving him feeling disheartened and dejected. Nelson, who is fluent in French, applied to the State Secretariat for Migration to be transferred to a French-speaking canton but his request was rejected.
One day in late April, he finally snapped.
“There comes a point when you have to think what makes your life good? Is it really just safety? I know people who are in Germany now, they are safe but they are not happy,” he explains.
“In Ukraine, I felt there is more freedom,” he says. “You can work and live more comfortably with your salary. In the rest of Europe, people always struggle with endless taxes, mortgages, internet prices, etc.”

He spoke to his partner, sister, brother-in-law and niece and explained how he felt and that he wanted to return to Ukraine. Everyone felt the same way. They missed home and work had been difficult to come by. With Lviv remaining relatively safe, they decided together to return home and the five of them set off on the 14-hour drive to the border. On the way, he called Roman and told him he wasn’t happy in Switzerland and would like to extend his rental contract. “No problem, just bring me some Swiss chocolates!” came the reply.
Nelson laughs as he recalls the moment he handed his Cameroonian passport to a stern-faced Ukrainian border guard who, for many stress-filled weeks, had been stamping the passports of foreign residents fleeing the country. Now, faced with a foreign resident voluntarily returning to wartime Ukraine, she did not know how to react.
“She was so confused and asked in English, ‘Where are you going?’” Nelson recalls.
Nelson, who speaks conversational Ukrainian, replied that he was “going home”.
She continued to ask him for more details, until his three-old niece who was standing behind him blurted out “Slava Ukraini”, a national salute once banned in the Soviet Union, which means “Glory to Ukraine”.
The border guard’s expression softened and she began to speak to the young girl in Ukrainian and chat with the family. By the time they crossed back into Ukraine, the guard had exchanged telephone details with Nelson’s sister and invited his niece to meet her daughter.

Nelson is now happy to be settled back into life in Ukraine where he has set up a flourishing side business developing websites for an eclectic array of clients, including a falconry business in Dubai.
His experience in Basel has made him appreciate the quality of life he enjoys in Lviv even more.
“Switzerland is not lively,” Nelson reflects. “You have so many rules, you get fines everywhere you park. People just work and sleep. It’s the same routine. Here [in Lviv] people want to have fun, they enjoy life more.”
Nelson says other Africans, many of whom were studying there, are returning to Ukraine.
For now, he is not scared for his family’s safety in Lviv.
“War is just politics,” he says wistfully, citing his home country’s past conflict with Nigeria over the oil-rich Bakassi Peninsula, ceded to Cameroon in 2008, as one example. “I don’t know that much about Ukrainian or Russian history, but I know Russia is trying to take Ukrainian territory. This is very similar to what Nigeria was doing to Cameroon,” he says.
He believes that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is “too proud” to give up and that the war, and the political deadlock surrounding it, look set to continue for some time. However, he has no intention of leaving his home again. “I just have two countries in my life now. Cameroon and Ukraine,” he says firmly.
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