In Rome this month, Cindy McCain started her new job as executive director of the U.N. World Food Programme, an organization working in 123 countries with the ambitious goal of ending world hunger. She talks with correspondent Seth Doane about the increased political and logistical challenges of feeding the world’s neediest, a task made more critical by the pandemic and war in Ukraine; and about the advice she continues to carry with her from her husband, the late Sen. John McCain.
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Poland’s government said Saturday that it has decided to temporarily prohibit grain and other food imports from Ukraine as it seeks to soothe the rising anger of Polish farmers, who say they are losing huge amounts of money to a glut of Ukrainian grain on the market.
Ruling party leader Jarosław Kaczyński said at a party convention in eastern Poland that the Polish countryside is facing a “moment of crisis,” and that while Poland supports Ukraine, it was forced to act to protect its farmers.
“Today, the government has decided on a regulation that prohibits the importation of grain, but also dozens of other types of food, to Poland,” Kaczyński said.
The government announced that the ban on imports would last until June 30. The regulation also includes a prohibition on imports of sugar, eggs, meat, milk and other dairy products and fruits and vegetables.
Farmers in neighboring countries have also complained about Ukrainian grain flooding their countries and creating a glut that has caused prices to fall — and causing them to take steep losses.
“The increasing imports of agricultural products from Ukraine cause serious disturbances in the markets of our countries, great damage to producers and social unrest,” the Polish agriculture minister, Robert Telus, told his counterparts from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary this week. All are members of the European Union and he said the bloc should take urgent action on the matter.
“We cannot accept a situation where the entire burden of dealing with increased imports rests mainly with farmers from our countries,” Telus said.
The situation is the result of Russia’s war against Ukraine. After Russia blocked traditional export sea passages, the European Union lifted duties on Ukrainian grain to facilitate its transport to Africa and the Middle East.
Grain has since flowed into Poland but much of its has not transited further on to the Middle East and Northern Africa, as it was meant to under the EU plan.
Poland’s government has sought to blame the EU for the situation. But some unions and opposition politicians accuse government-linked companies of causing the problem by buying up cheap, low-quality Ukrainian grain, and then selling it to bread and pasta plants as high-quality Polish produce.
Tomasz Obszański, of the farmers’ Solidarity union, said that about 3 million tons of grain intended for Africa were received by traders once the grain arrived in Poland, and he alleged that some companies have made huge money off the situation.
The leader of the protesting farmers and head of the AgroUnia group, Michał Kołodziejczak, estimated farmers’ losses at up to 10 billion zlotys ($2.3 billion).
The rising anger of the farmers comes ahead of an election in the fall and is a headache for the ruling conservative Law and Justice party as it seeks a third term. Polls show that it is the most popular party in the country but could fall short of a majority in the next parliament.
It faces a particular challenge from a far-right party, Confederation, which combines libertarian and nationalist views and which contains some members seen as sympathetic to Russia. The party has grown to be the third-most popular party in some polls.
Kaczyński on Saturday also announced other measures meant to help farmers, including maintaining subsidies on fertilizer.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 415th day, we take a look at the main developments.
Here is the situation as it stands on Friday, April 14, 2023:
Fighting
Kyiv and Moscow announced separate investigations into a disturbing video showing the alleged beheading of a Ukrainian soldier and believed to have been filmed by Wagner Group mercenaries from Russia.
Russia’s defence ministry said its forces were “blocking” Ukrainian troops from leaving or entering Bakhmut, but Kyiv rejected the claim. Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner mercenary group said it was “too early” to say Russia had the ruined city surrounded.
A Russian mine exploded near the generator room of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, Ukraine’s state nuclear plant operator Energoatom said.
Diplomacy
The FBI arrested 21-year-old Jack Teixeira, from the United States Air Force National Guard in connection with the alleged leak of classified military intelligence documents online.
In the latest revelations from the leaked files, the documents suggested the US was monitoring United Nations chief Antonio Guterres because it believed he was too soft on Russia after it invaded Ukraine.
Norway said it would expel 15 Russian diplomats suspected of spying while working at the Russian embassy in Oslo.
Moscow said there would be no extension of the Black Sea grain deal beyond May 18 unless obstacles to exporting Russian grain and fertiliser were removed.
Romania, Ukraine and Moldova signed cooperation agreements in Bucharest after a trilateral meeting on ways to strengthen security to counter threats posed by Russia.
Chinese and Russian foreign ministers discussed the conflict in Ukraine during a meeting in Uzbekistan’s Samarkand city, the Chinese foreign ministry said.
The US Commerce Department said it was imposing export controls on more than two dozen companies in China, Turkey and other countries for supporting Russia’s military and defence industries.
Ukraine’s state-owned gas company Naftogaz said Russia has been ordered by an arbitration court in The Hague to pay $5bn in compensation for expropriating Ukrainian assets in Crimea.
The Kremlin denied a report that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally approved the arrest of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who has been charged with spying.
Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres, or MSF) said it had yet to be given access to provide aid to Moscow-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite talks last month with Russian diplomats in Geneva.
Weapons
Berlin approved Poland’s request to send five MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in a statement.
President Aleksandar Vucic said Serbia never sold weapons or ammunition to Ukraine or Russia, although Serbian arms might have reached the battlefield via third countries.
The headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) pictured on February 03, 2022 in Frankfurt, Germany.
Thomas Lohnes | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Germany’s energy worries are over and Europe’s largest economy has the “inherent strength” to recover from the dual shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday projected the German GDP will contract by 0.1% in 2023, becoming the second worst performer among major economies behind the U.K., before expanding by 1.1% in 2024.
Central to concerns about the economic outlook for Germany and the wider continent over the past year has been the potential for an energy crisis, as Europe strives to curb its reliance on Russian gas following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
German output decreased by 0.4% in the fourth quarter and is expected to contract again in the first quarter of 2023, entering a technical recession.
Nagel told CNBC on the sidelines of the IMF Spring Meetings that he is “more positive than the IMF” and does not see a recession this year.
“The German economy proved a lot over the past couple of weeks and months, so the adaptation capacity of the German industry is pretty high, the energy crisis is more or less solved. So we had a really worried situation in the past, but this is now over, and the outlook is good,” he told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche.
He asserted that Germany’s progress in diversifying its liquefied natural gas supply away from Russia, and its increased storage — resulting from built up capacity during the mild winter — meant the country’s economy is well placed to weather the next cold season as well.
The latest available purchasing managers’ index readings showed German manufacturing, which accounts for around a fifth of the country’s economy, experienced its sharpest fall in activity for almost three years in March and hit its lowest level since May 2020.
However, Nagel claimed that this was down to lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, insisting that “we shouldn’t forget where we came from.”
“The German industry has a good capability to deal with the situation, there is this inherent strength of the German economy, and I believe they will overcome this, and they will go back to the levels we saw before the pandemic,” he said.
Headline inflation across the euro zone fell to 6.9% in March from 8.5% in February, driven by cooling energy costs. But core inflation — which strips away volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices — increased to an all-time high of 5.7%.
Nagel said the persistence of high core inflation showed the ECB Governing Council, in which he is considered one of the more hawkish members, has further to go in tightening monetary policy.
He expects core inflation to eventually follow the headline figure downwards, but reiterated that policymakers have to “stay really alerted when it comes to the inflation story.”
“What is also important to me, we went through some financial market turbulence uncertainty over the last five weeks and now we have to find out what was the impact out of that, and we have to wait for the incoming data until we have our next meeting in May, and then we will see,” he said.
The ECB went ahead with a 50 basis point hike to interest rates despite concerns about the economic impact of the banking turmoil, and Nagel hopes this sent an important message to markets.
“There is no contradiction between what we have to do on the price stability side and on the financial stability side,” he said.
“We have different instruments to tackle the price issues and the financial stability issues, so it was an important message to the financial market participants that we are very committed when it comes to fighting against inflation.”
Deutsche Bank shares sold off sharply over a few days in March after a sudden spike in the cost of insuring against its default. Analysts largely attributed this to misplaced market panic, but also to concerns about the German lender’s well-documented exposure to commercial real estate, which is considered a particularly weak link in the U.S. economy.
Nagel insisted the German banking system is safe and sound.
“I think we have to be vigilant when it comes for example to the commercial banking sector, but let me take this opportunity to say something about the German banking sector — I think the German banking sector is very robust,” he said.
“I think, compared to 15 years ago, they are much better capitalized, better liquidity situation, so I do not have doubts.”
Although he reaffirmed the ECB’s commitment to fighting inflation, Nagel acknowledged that policymakers “have to be cautious” and keep an eye on parts of the economy that may be affected if rates continue to rise.
European Commissioner for the Economy, Paulo Gentiloni, defended the robustness of the broader European banking sector in an interview at the same event.
“We don’t see a risk of systemic spillover in the EU system,” he told Joumanna Bercetche, referring to the stresses emanating from U.S. regional banks that already contributed to the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS.
However, he noted the situation would need to be monitored as it evolved.
“For the time being, I see no risk at all that this phenomenon could be imported in the EU. No risk at all … at the moment,” he added.
– CNBC’s Jenni Reid contributed to this report.
— Clarification: The headline of this article has been updated to clarify that Joachim Nagel was referring to Germany’s energy crisis.
A series of leaked reports purporting to be classified US intelligence documents linked to the war in Ukraine has drawn scepticism and denials from US spy agencies and several United States allies.
Photos of the classified files began circulating widely on Russian social media channels last week, but some were published on the gamers’ website Discord in February and March.
The CIA, NSA, and US Defense Intelligence Agency have denied the authenticity of the reports and have launched an investigation into the source of the leak.
The reports have also caused embarrassment for two US-Middle East allies—Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Egypt denied a Washington Post report citing a leaked document dated February 17 that said it had reached a secret agreement to supply Russia with 40,000 rockets, gunpowder and artillery shells.
“In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret ‘to avoid problems with the West’”, the Washington Post reported, referring to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
A senior official told Al Qahera News the report was “informational tampering that has no basis in truth”.
Egypt denied a report citing a leaked document that said it agreed to supply Russia with rockets and shells [File: Christian Mang/Reuters]
Another leaked document focuses on the United Arab Emirates, saying Abu Dhabi had agreed to leak US and United Kingdom intelligence to curry favour with Russia.
“The UAE probably views engagement with Russian intelligence as an opportunity to strengthen growing ties between Abu Dhabi and Moscow and diversify intelligence partnerships amid concerns of US disengagement from the region,” the document cited by the Associated Press news agency says.
The UAE said suggestions it had deepened ties with Russian intelligence were “categorically false.”
Can Ukraine win?
More worryingly for the Western alliance backing Ukraine, some of the leaked documents suggest Kyiv is not set for a sweeping victory in its anticipated spring counteroffensive, and its air defences are vulnerable.
A purported US intelligence assessment from early February warned of “force generation and sustainment shortfalls,” and the likelihood of only “modest territorial gains”.
Ukraine has formed several new so-called storm brigades ahead of the counteroffensive and was advertising the formation of a seventh National Guard brigade, which would be the ninth “Offensive Guard” in the armed forces. A brigade typically consists of about 4,000 troops, suggesting that Ukraine had 32,000 offensive troops in reserve and was trying to raise that number closer to 40,000 ahead of the counteroffensive.
“Currently, we see a great demand and desire to join,” said Ukraine’s Interior Affairs Deputy Minister Kateryna Pavlichenko.
Following a telephone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted on April 11, “@SecBlinken reaffirmed the ironclad US support and vehemently rejected any attempts to cast doubt on Ukraine’s capacity to win on the battlefield.”
A New York Times report quoted a leaked document predicting that ammunition for Ukraine’s Soviet-era air defence systems would soon be depleted, exposing the interior of the country to aerial attack.
“Stocks of missiles for Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems, which make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s protection against most fighter aircraft and some bombers, were projected to be fully depleted by May 3 and mid-April,” the newspaper said.
A Ukrainian BM-21 ‘Grad’ fires towards Russian positions, on the front line in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, on Saturday, April 8, 2023 [Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo]
Ukraine says it is currently able to shoot down 75 percent of the missiles Russia sends, and is trying to convince its allies to send F-16s to bolster its air defences.
One of the documents claimed that Ukraine had suffered between 124,000 and 131,000 dead and wounded, five times higher than its official death toll.
Ukraine military intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov said those reports were false or inaccurate. “We see false figures on losses from both sides. Part of the information is clearly collected from open sources,” he said in a telethon.
Russia ‘exhausted’ in Bakhmut
The bloodiest battles of the war continued to rage in the eastern city of Bakhmut, with Russia launching dozens of ground assaults there each day.
Ukrainian ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said Bakhmut’s defenders had “exhausted the Wagnerites,” referring to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, “so the enemy is now forced to involve special forces and airborne assault units in the battles for Bakhmut”.
He said Russian forces had “switched to the so-called ‘Syrian’ scorched-earth tactics”, destroying buildings and positions with air strikes and artillery fire.
Ukraine’s general staff said Russian forces had suffered heavy losses in the Bakhmut area of Donetsk.
Ukraine has suffered significant losses in Bakhmut as well, and has justified its decision to defend the city as strategic.
“If we had not defended Bakhmut all this time, the enemy would have advanced deep into the territory of Ukraine, so the importance of defending the city must be understood in this context,” said Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar.
A Ukrainian soldier fires a grenade launcher on the front line in Bakhmut in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, Monday, April 10, 2023 [Libkos/AP Photo]
Although Ukrainian officials admitted Russian forces had a significant artillery advantage in the city, they were reportedly also running out of ammunition or conserving it.
“The pace of Russian attacks has decreased somewhat,” noted Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, head of the joint press centre of the Defense Forces of the Tavria region.
“Over the past week, the enemy shelled our positions in the Zaporizhia and Donetsk directions 1,844 times. Compared to February, it is a third less.”
Russian forces have been trying to surround and choke off Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut. Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern forces, said the destruction of a bridge to the village of Khromove, 2 kilometres (1.2 miles) west of Bakhmut, created a problem in supply lines the Ukrainian forces were working to overcome.
Ukraine’s general staff said Russian forces in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia were evacuating people in anticipation of Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive.
“Russian occupants have activated preparation for the evacuation of local people to the temporarily occupied territorials of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,” the general staff said. “In particular, in Melitopol and Skadovsk, the enemy organised a survey of local people for possible evacuation.”
Al Jazeera previously reported on satellite photographs showing Russian forces in Crimea digging themselves underground and preparing extensive defences.
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 413th day, we take a look at the main developments.
Here is the situation as it stands on Wednesday, April 12, 2023:
Fighting
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said nearly 8,500 civilians had been killed in Russia’s war on Ukraine but that the actual figures were likely “considerably higher”.
The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said his forces controlled more than 80 percent of Bakhmut. The now ruined eastern Ukrainian town has seen the heaviest fighting of the nearly 14-month war.
Sergey Aksyonov, the Moscow-appointed leader of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, said the region is on guard for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russia will introduce electronic military draft papers for the first time in its history, making it harder for men to avoid being drafted.
Tearful mourners bid farewell to celebrated Ukrainian opera conductor Kostiantyn Starovytskyi, who was killed fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Diplomacy
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken had assured him of Washington’s “ironclad” support for Kyiv’s efforts to win the war.
The US said there was no evidence to suggest that Egypt is supplying Russia with lethal weapons after a leaked US document claimed Cairo secretly planned to supply rockets to Moscow.
US President Joe Biden said Russia’s jailing of US journalist Evan Gershkovich on spying charges was “out of bounds”. The Kremlin says the Wall Street Journal reporter “violated Russian law” and was caught “red-handed”.
Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino said Europe could not ignore China’s role as a key trading partner and geopolitical player with the potential to help end the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s youth and sports minister said Kyiv will maintain pressure on the International Olympic Committee to prevent Russian athletes from taking part in next year’s games in Paris.
Weapons
Canada will send 21,000 assault rifles, 38 machine guns and 2.4 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine and impose sanctions on 14 Russian individuals and 34 entities, including security targets linked to the Wagner Group, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said after meeting Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Toronto.
Denmark’s defence minister said he expects a decision on whether to donate fighter jets to Ukraine “before the summer”, as Poland and Slovakia began deliveries of MiG-29s to Kyiv.
Romania plans to buy the latest generation of US F-35 fighter planes to boost its air defences, the country’s supreme defence council said.
BRUSSELS — China and other powerful countries need to step up to help steer the world away from a potentially “catastrophic” hunger crisis this year, the new head of the United Nations’ World Food Programme said.
Cindy McCain, an American diplomat and the widow of the late U.S. Senator John McCain, also told POLITICO that the EU and U.S. should see world hunger as a national security issue due to its impact on migration. She furthermore accused Russia of using hunger as a “weapon of war” by hindering exports of Ukrainian grain.
McCain, formerly the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. food agencies, took the helm of the WFP on April 5 and begins her five-year term at a time of increasing world hunger. The number of people facing food insecurity around the world rose to a record 345 million at the end of last year, up from 282 million in 2021, according to the WFP’s figures, as Russia’s war in Ukraine deepened a food crisis driven by climate change, COVID-19 and other conflicts.
This year could be worse still, McCain warned, with the Horn of Africa experiencing its worst drought in 40 years and Haiti facing a sharp rise in food insecurity, among other factors. “2023 is going to be catastrophic if we don’t get to work and raise the money that we need,” she said. “We need a hell of a lot more than we used to.”
Non-Western countries, which have traditionally contributed much less to the WFP, need to step up to meet the shortfall, McCain said, pointing specifically to China and oil-rich Gulf Arab countries. China contributed just $11 million to WFP funds last year, compared to $7.2 billion donated by the U.S.
“There are some countries that have just basically not participated or participated in a very low fashion. I’d like to encourage our Middle Eastern friends to step up to the plate a little more; I’d like to encourage China to step up to the plate a little more,” said McCain. “Every region, every country needs to step up funding.”
Her entreaty may fall on deaf ears, however, given rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China. The WFP’s last six executive directors have been American, dating back to 1992, and Beijing may prefer to distribute aid through its own channels. Last summer, for example, China shipped food aid directly to the Horn of Africa following a drought there.
National security
Countries hesitant to throw more money into food aid should think about the alternative, McCain said, particularly those in Europe that are likely to bear the brunt of any new wave of migration from Africa and the Middle East.
“Food security is a national security issue,” she said. “No refugee wants to leave their home country, but they’re forced to because they don’t have enough food, and they can’t feed their families. So it comes down to if you want a stable world, food is a major player in this.”
The WFP is already having to make brutal decisions despite raking in a record $14.2 billion last year — more than double what it raised in 2017. In February, for instance, it said a funding shortfall was forcing it to cut food rations for Rohingya refugees living in camps in Bangladesh.
The problem is compounded by surging costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, which sent already-high food prices soaring further, as grain and oilseed exports through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports plunged from more than 5 million metric tons a month to zero.
A U.N.-brokered deal allowing Ukrainian grain exports to pass through Russia’s blockades in the Black Sea has brought some reprieve, but Moscow’s repeated threats to withdraw from the agreement have kept prices volatile.
Moscow claims that “hidden” Western sanctions are hindering its fertilizer and foods exports and causing hunger in the Global South | Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images
The deal, initially brokered in July last year, was extended for 120 days last month; Russia, however, agreed to extend its side of the Black Sea grain initiative only for 60 days. Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov threatened, once again, to halt Moscow’s participation in the initiative unless obstacles to its own fertilizer and food exports are addressed.
Moscow claims that “hidden” Western sanctions — those targeting Russia’s fertilizer oligarchs and its main agricultural bank, as well as others excluding Russian banks from the international SWIFT payments system — are hindering its fertilizer and foods exports and causing hunger in the Global South.
Ukraine and its Western allies have countered that Russia is deliberately holding up inspections for ships heading to and from its Black Sea ports, creating a backlog of Ukraine-bound vessels off the Turkish coast and inflating prices.
These delayed food cargoes are hindering the WFP’s ability to respond to humanitarian crises, said McCain, who did not hold back on the issue.
“Let’s be very clear, there are no sanctions on [Russian] fertilizer,” she said. “It is not sanctioned and never has been sanctioned.”
Russia is “using hunger as a weapon of war,” said McCain. “it’s unconscionable that a country would do that — any country, not just Russia.”
There’s an Emmanuel Macron-shaped shadow hovering over this week’s U.S. visit by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
In contrast to the French president — who in an interview with POLITICO tried to put some distance between the U.S. and Europe in any future confrontation with China over Taiwan and called for strengthening the Continent’s “strategic autonomy” — the Polish leader is underlining the critical importance of the alliance between America and Europe, not least because his country is one of Kyiv’s strongest allies in the war with Russia.
“Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” he said before flying to Washington.
In the U.S. capital, Morawiecki continued with his under-the-table kicks at the French president.
“I see no alternative, and we are absolutely on the same wavelength here, to building an even closer alliance with the Americans. If countries to the west of Poland understand this less, it is probably because of historical circumstances,” he said on Tuesday in Washington.
Unlike France, which has spent decades bristling at Europe’s reliance on the U.S. for its security, Poland is one of the Continent’s keenest American allies. Warsaw has pushed hard for years for U.S. troops to be stationed on its territory, and many of its recent arms contracts have gone to American companies. It signed a $1.4 billion deal earlier this year to buy a second batch of Abrams tanks, and has also agreed to spend $4.6 billion on advanced F-35 fighter jets.
“I am glad that this proposal for an even deeper strategic partnership is something that finds such fertile ground here in the United States, because we know that there are various concepts formulated by others in Europe, concepts that create more threats, more question marks, more unknowns,” Morawiecki said. “Poland is trying to maintain the most commonsense policy based on a close alliance with the United States within the framework of the European Union, and this is the best path for Poland.”
Fast friends
Poland has become one of Ukraine’s most important allies, and access to its roads, railways and airports is crucial in funneling weapons, ammunition and other aid to Ukraine.
That’s helped shift perceptions of Poland — seen before the war as an increasingly marginal member of the Western club thanks to its issues with violating the rule of law, into a key country of the NATO alliance.
Warsaw also sees the Russian attack on Ukraine as justifying its long-held suspicion of its historical foe, and it hasn’t been shy in pointing the finger at Paris and Berlin for being wrong about the threat posed by the Kremlin.
“Old Europe believed in an agreement with Russia, and old Europe failed,” Morawiecki said in a joint news conference with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. “But there is a new Europe — Europe that remembers what Russian communism was. And Poland is the leader of this new Europe.”
That’s why Macron’s comments have been seized on by Warsaw.
According to Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki, Emmanuel Macron’s talks of distancing the EU from America “threatens to break up” the block | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
“I absolutely don’t agree with President Macron. We believe that more America is needed in Europe … We want more cooperation with the U.S. on a partnership basis,” Marcin Przydacz, a foreign policy adviser to Polish President Andrzej Duda, told Poland’s Radio Zet, adding that the strategic autonomy idea pushed by Macron “has the goal of cutting links between Europe and the United States.”
While Poland is keen on European countries hitting NATO’s goal of spending at least 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense — a target that only seven alliance members, including Poland, but not France and Germany, are meeting — and has no problem with them building up military industries, it doesn’t want to weaken ties with the U.S., said Sławomir Dębski, head of the state-financed Polish Institute of International Affairs.
He warned that Macron’s talks of distancing Europe from America in the event of a conflict with China “threatens to break up the EU, which is against the interests not only of Poland, but also of most European countries.”
Europe has special forces on the ground in Ukraine. Poland and Slovenia are providing nearly half of the tanks heading to Kyiv. And Hungary may be letting arms through its airspace.
Those are just a few of the eye-catching details about Europe’s participation in the war buried in a 53-page dossier POLITICO reviewed from a leak of unverified U.S. military intelligence documents.
The disclosure has generated a tempest of head-spinning revelations that has the U.S. playing clean-up with allies. The documents detail American doubts about Ukraine’s spring offensive, suggest it was spying on South Korea and display intelligence accusing Egypt of plotting to prop up Russia’s quixotic war.
Yet Europe, for the most part, has been spared these relationship-damaging divulgences.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t knowledge to be gleaned about Europe’s war effort from the documents, however. The leaked files contain insights on everything from a U.K.-dominated special forces group in Ukraine to how — and when — France and Spain are getting a key missile system to the battlefield. The documents also contain allegations that Turkey is a potential source of arms for Russian mercenaries.
POLITICO has not independently verified the documents, and there have been indications that some of the leaked pages were doctored. But the U.S. has acknowledged the intelligence breach and arrested a suspect late on Thursday.
Here are a few of POLITICO’s findings after poring over the file.
Europe has boots on the ground
There is a Europe-heavy special forces group operating in Ukraine — at least as of March 23 — according to the documents.
The United Kingdom dominates the 97-person strong “US/NATO” contingent with 50 special forces members. The group also includes 17 people from Latvia, 15 from France and one from the Netherlands. Fourteen U.S. personnel round out the team.
The leaked information does not specify which activities the forces are carrying out or their location in Ukraine. The documents also show the U.S. has about 100 personnel in total in the country.
Predictably, governments have remained mostly mum on the subject. The Brits have refused to comment, while the White House has conceded there is a “small U.S. military presence” at the U.S. embassy in Ukraine, stressing that the troops “are not fighting on the battlefield.” France previously denied that its forces were “engaged in operations in Ukraine.”
The rest of the countries did not reply to a request for comment.
Europe is providing the bulk of the tanks
A Ukrainian tank drives down a street in the heavily damaged town of Siversk | Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Tanks are one area where Europe — collectively — is outpacing America.
Within the file, one page gives an overview of the 200 tanks that U.S. allies have committed to sending Ukraine — 53 short of what the document says Ukraine needs for its spring offensive.
Poland and Slovenia appear to be the largest contributors, committing nearly half of the total, according to an assessment dated February 23. France and the U.K. are also key players, pitching in 14 tanks each.
Then there’s the Leopard 2 crew, which is donating versions of the modern German battle tanks that Ukraine spent months convincing allies it needed. That lineup includes Germany, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Finland.
The document indicates Germany had committed just four Leopard 2s — the most high-end model — but Berlin said in late March that it had delivered 18 Leopards to Ukraine. It also shows Sweden pledging 10 tanks of an “unknown type,” which media reports suggest may be Leopards.
Separately, the U.S. has said it will send Ukraine 31 of its modern tanks, though those aren’t expected to arrive until at least the fall.
Europe’s deliveries are lagging, too
The idea behind Europe taking the lead on tanks was partly that it could get the tanks to Ukraine and ready for battle swiftly — ideally in time for the spring offensive.
But the document shows that as of February 23, only 31 percent of the 200 tanks pledged had gotten to the battlefield. It did note, however, that the remaining 120 tanks were on track to be transferred.
Separately, another leaked page recounts that France told Italy on February 22 that a joint missile system would not be ready for Ukraine until June. That’s the very end of a timeline the Italian defense ministry laid out in February, when officials said the anti-aircraft defense system would be delivered to Ukraine “in the spring of 2023.”
Hungary sees America as the enemy — but might be letting allies use its airspace
Hungary pops up a couple of times in the pile of creased pages, offering more insights into a country that regularly perplexes its own allies.
The most eye-popping nugget is buried in a “top secret” CIA update from March 2, which says Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán branded the U.S. “one of his party’s top three adversaries during a political strategy session” on February 22.
The remarks, it notes, constitute “an escalation of the level of anti-American rhetoric” from Orbán.
Indeed, Orbán’s government has charted its own course during the war, promoting Russia-friendly narratives, essentially calling on Ukraine to quit and caustically dismissing allied efforts to isolate Russia’s economy.
However, the leaked U.S. documents also indicate Hungary — which shares a small border with Ukraine — may be secretly letting allies use its airspace to move arms toward the battlefield, despite pledges to bar such transfers.
Intelligence leaks suspect Jack Teixeira reflected in an image of the Pentagon in Washington, DC | Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
One of the leaked documents details a plan for Ukrainian pilots to fly donated helicopters from Croatia to Ukraine “through Hungarian air space.” If true, the information would not only show Hungary is letting arms pass through its skies, but also contradict press reports indicating the helicopters would be transferred on the ground or through flights into Poland.
Hungarian and Croatian officials didn’t reply to requests for comment.
Did the Brits downplay a confrontation with Russia?
Publicly, the U.K. has told a consistent story: A Russian fighter jet “released” a missile “in the vicinity” of a U.K. surveillance plane over the Black Sea last September. A close call, to be sure, but not a major incident.
The leaked U.S. dossier, however, hints at something more serious. It describes the incident as a “near shoot-down” of the British aircraft. The language appears to go beyond what U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told lawmakers last October. This week, The New York Times reported that the Russian pilot had locked on the British aircraft before the missile failed to fire properly.
The document also details several other close encounters in recent months between Russian fighter jets and U.S., U.K. and French surveillance aircraft — a subject that jumped into the news last month when a Russian fighter jet collided with a U.S. drone, sending it crashing into the Black Sea.
Wallace has not commented on the leaked description, and a ministry spokesperson on Thursday pointed to a prior statement saying there was a “serious level of inaccuracy” in the divulged dossier.
Turkey is the war’s middleman in Europe
Turkey has portrayed itself as a conciliator between Ukraine and Russia, helping negotiate a deal to keep grain shipments flowing through the Black Sea and maintaining diplomatic ties with Russia while also providing Ukraine with drones.
The leaked pile of clandestine U.S. intelligence reports, however, shows a darker side to Turkey’s position as a middleman that distinctly favors Russia.
One page describes how Turkey helped both Russia and its ally Belarus evade strict Western sanctions — a concern U.S. officials have expressed publicly.
For Belarus, the document says, “Turkish companies purchased sanctioned goods” and then “sold them in European markets.” In the opposite direction, it adds, these companies “resold goods from Europe to Russia.”
More alarming is another leaked document that describes a meeting in February between “Turkish contacts” and the Wagner Group, the private militia firm fighting for the Kremlin. It says Wagner was seeking “to purchase weapons and equipment from Turkey” for the group’s “efforts in Mali and Ukraine.”
The information, which the document says came from “signals intelligence” — a euphemism for digital surveillance — does not explain whether the purchases have occurred.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Ukraine’s farmers played an iconic role in the first weeks of Russia’s invasion, towing away abandoned enemy tanks with their tractors.
Now, though, their prodigious grain output is causing some of Ukraine’s staunchest allies to waver, as disrupted shipments are redirected onto neighboring markets.
The most striking is Poland, which has played a leading role so far in supporting Ukraine, acting as the main transit hub for Western weaponry and sending plenty of its own. But grain shipments in the other direction have irked Polish farmers who are being undercut — just months before a national election where the rural vote will be crucial.
Diplomats are floundering. After a planned Friday meeting between the Polish and Ukrainian agriculture ministers was postponed, the Polish government on Saturday announced a ban on imports of farm products from Ukraine. Hungary late Saturday said it would do the same.
Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of wheat and other grains, which are ordinarily shipped to markets as distant as Egypt and Pakistan. Russia’s invasion last year disrupted the main Black Sea export route, and a United Nations-brokered deal to lift the blockade has been only partially effective. In consequence, Ukrainian produce has been diverted to bordering EU countries: Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
At first, those governments supported EU plans to shift the surplus grain. But instead of transiting seamlessly onto global markets, the supply glut has depressed prices in Europe. Farmers have risen up in protest, and Polish Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk was forced out earlier this month.
Now, governments’ focus has shifted to restricting Ukrainian imports to protect their own markets. After hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Warsaw in early April, Polish President Andrzej Duda said resolving the import glut was “a matter of introducing additional restrictions.”
The following day, Poland suspended imports of Ukrainian grain, saying the idea had come from Kyiv. On Saturday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, after an emergency cabinet meeting, said the import ban would cover grain and certain other farm products and would include products intended for other countries. A few hours later, the Hungarian government announced similar measures. Both countries said the bans would last until the end of June.
The European Commission is seeking further information on the import restrictions from Warsaw and Budapest “to be able to assess the measures,” according to a statement on Sunday. “Trade policy is of EU exclusive competence and, therefore, unilateral actions are not acceptable,” it said.
While the EU’s free-trade agreement with Ukraine prevents governments from introducing tariffs, they still have plenty of tools available to disrupt shipments.
Neighboring countries and nearby Bulgaria have stepped up sanitary checks on Ukrainian grain, arguing they are doing so to protect the health of their own citizens. They have also requested financial support from Brussels and have already received more than €50 million from the EU’s agricultural crisis reserve, with more money on the way.
Restrictions could do further harm to Ukraine’s battered economy, and by extension its war effort. The economy has shrunk by 29.1 percent since the invasion, according to statistics released this month, and agricultural exports are an important source of revenue.
Cracks in the alliance
The trade tensions sit at odds with these countries’ political position on Ukraine, which — with the exception of Hungary — has been strongly supportive. Poland has taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees, while weapons and ammunition flow in the opposite direction; Romania has helped transport millions of tons of Ukrainian corn and wheat.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Poland’s Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki | Omar Marques/Getty Images
Some Western European governments, which had to be goaded by Poland and others into sending heavy weaponry to Kyiv, are quick to point out the change in direction.
“Curious to see that some of these countries are [always] asking for more on sanctions, more on ammunition, etc. But when it affects them, they turn to Brussels begging for financial support,” said one diplomat from a Western country, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Some EU countries also oppose the import restrictions for economic reasons. For instance, Spain and the Netherlands are some of the biggest recipients of Ukrainian grain, which they use to supply their livestock industries.
Politically, though, the Central and Eastern European governments have limited room for maneuver. Poland and Slovakia are both heading into general elections later this year. Bulgaria has had a caretaker government since last year. Romania’s agriculture minister has faced calls to resign, including from a compatriot former EU agriculture commissioner.
And farmers are a strong constituency. Poland’s right-wing Law & Justice (PiS) party won the last general election in 2019 thanks in large part to rural voters. The Ukrainian grain issue has already cost a Polish agriculture minister his job; the government as a whole will have to tread carefully to avoid the same fate.
For Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, next month’s election is of massive historical significance.
It falls 100 years after the foundation of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic and, if Erdoğan wins, he will be empowered to put even more of his stamp on the trajectory of a geostrategic heavyweight of 85 million people. The fear in the West is that he will see this as his moment to push toward an increasingly religiously conservative model, characterized by regional confrontationalism, with greater political powers centered around himself.
The election will weigh heavily on security in Europe and the Middle East. Who is elected stands to define: Turkey’s role in the NATO alliance; its relationship with the U.S., the EU and Russia; migration policy; Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine; and how it handles tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The May 14 vote is expected to be the most hotly contested race in Erdoğan’s 20-year rule — as the country grapples with years of economic mismanagement and the fallout from a devastating earthquake.
He will face an opposition aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi,” who is promising big changes. Polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu has eked out a lead, but Erdoğan is a hardened election campaigner, with the full might of the state and its institutions at his back.
“There will be a change from an authoritarian single-man rule, towards a kind of a teamwork, which is a much more democratic process,” Ünal Çeviköz, chief foreign policy adviser to Kılıçdaroğlu told POLITICO. “Kılıçdaroğlu will be the maestro of that team.”
Here are the key foreign policy topics in play in the vote:
EU and Turkish accession talks
Turkey’s opposition is confident it can unfreeze European Union accession talks — at a standstill since 2018 over the country’s democratic backsliding — by introducing liberalizing reforms in terms of rule of law, media freedoms and depoliticization of the judiciary.
The opposition camp also promises to implement European Court of Human Rights decisions calling for the release of two of Erdoğan’s best-known jailed opponents: the co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş and human rights defender Osman Kavala.
“This will simply give the message to all our allies, and all the European countries, that Turkey is back on track to democracy,” Çeviköz said.
Even under a new administration, however, the task of reopening the talks on Turkey’s EU accession is tricky.
Turkey’s opposition is aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi” | Burak Kara/Getty Images
Anti-Western feeling in Turkey is very strong across the political spectrum, argued Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.
“Foreign policy will depend on the coherence of the coalition,” he said. “This is a coalition of parties who have nothing in common apart from the desire to get rid of Erdoğan. They’ve got a very different agenda, and this will have an impact in foreign policy.”
“The relationship is largely comatose, and has been for some time, so, they will keep it on life support,” he said, adding that any new government would have so many internal problems to deal with that its primary focus would be domestic.
Europe also seems unprepared to handle a new Turkey, with a group of countries — most prominently France and Austria — being particularly opposed to the idea of rekindling ties.
“They are used to the idea of a non-aligned Turkey, that has departed from EU norms and values and is doing its own course,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş a visiting fellow at Brookings. “If the opposition forms a government, it will seek a European identity and we don’t know Europe’s answer to that; whether it could be accession or a new security framework that includes Turkey.”
“Obviously the erosion of trust has been mutual,” said former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, arguing that despite reticence about Turkish accession, there are other areas where a complementary and mutually beneficiary framework could be built, like the customs union, visa liberalization, cooperation on climate, security and defense, and the migration agreement.
The opposition will indeed seek to revisit the 2016 agreement with the EU on migration, Çeviköz said.
“Our migration policy has to be coordinated with the EU,” he said. “Many countries in Europe see Turkey as a kind of a pool, where migrants coming from the east can be contained and this is something that Turkey, of course cannot accept,” he said but added. “This doesn’t mean that Turkey should open its borders and make the migrants flow into Europe. But we need to coordinate and develop a common migration policy.”
NATO and the US
After initially imposing a veto, Turkey finally gave the green light to Finland’s NATO membership on March 30.
But the opposition is also pledging to go further and end the Turkish veto on Sweden, saying that this would be possible by the alliance’s annual gathering on July 11. “If you carry your bilateral problems into a multilateral organization, such as NATO, then you are creating a kind of a polarization with all the other members of NATO with your country,” Çeviköz said.
A protester pushes a cart with a RRecep Tayyip Erdoğan doll during an anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstration in Sweden | Jonas Gratzer/Getty Images
A reelected Erdoğan could also feel sufficiently empowered to let Sweden in, many insiders argue. NATO allies did, after all, play a significant role in earthquake aid. Turkish presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın says that the door is not closed to Sweden, but insists the onus is on Stockholm to determine how things proceed.
Turkey’s military relationship with the U.S. soured sharply in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system, a move the U.S. said would put NATO aircraft flying over Turkey at risk. In response, the U.S. kicked Ankara out of the F-35 jet fighter program and slapped sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.
A meeting in late March between Kılıçdaroğlu and the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake infuriated Erdoğan, who saw it as an intervention in the elections and pledged to “close the door” to the U.S. envoy. “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this elections,” the irate president told voters.
In its policy platform, the opposition makes a clear reference to its desire to return to the F-35 program.
Russia and the war in Ukraine
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey presented itself as a middleman. It continues to supply weapons — most significantly Bayraktar drones — to Ukraine, while refusing to sanction Russia. It has also brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea.
Highlighting his strategic high-wire act on Russia, after green-lighting Finland’s NATO accession and hinting Sweden could also follow, Erdoğan is now suggesting that Turkey could be the first NATO member to host Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Maybe there is a possibility” that Putin may travel to Turkey on April 27 for the inauguration of the country’s first nuclear power reactor built by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, he said.
Çeviköz said that under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, Turkey would be willing to continue to act as a mediator and extend the grain deal, but would place more stress on Ankara’s status as a NATO member.
“We will simply emphasize the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, and in our discussions with Russia, we will certainly look for a relationship among equals, but we will also remind Russia that Turkey is a member of NATO,” he said.
Turkey’s relationship with Russia has become very much driven by the relationship between Putin and Erdoğan and this needs to change, Ülgen argued.
Turkey brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea | Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images
“No other Turkish leader would have the same type of relationship with Putin, it would be more distant,” he said. “It does not mean that Turkey would align itself with the sanctions; it would not. But nonetheless, the relationship would be more transparent.”
Syria and migration
The role of Turkey in Syria is highly dependent on how it can address the issue of Syrians living in Turkey, the opposition says.
Turkey hosts some 4 million Syrians and many Turks, battling a major cost-of-living crisis, are becoming increasingly hostile. Kılıçdaroğlu has pledged to create opportunities and the conditions for the voluntary return of Syrians.
“Our approach would be to rehabilitate the Syrian economy and to create the conditions for voluntary returns,” Çeviköz said, adding that this would require an international burden-sharing, but also establishing dialogue with Damascus.
Erdoğan is also trying to establish a rapprochement with Syria but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he will only meet the Turkish president when Ankara is ready to completely withdraw its military from northern Syria.
“A new Turkish government will be more eager to essentially shake hands with Assad,” said Ülgen. “But this will remain a thorny issue because there will be conditions attached on the side of Syria to this normalization.”
However, Piccoli from Teneo said voluntary returns of Syrians was “wishful thinking.”
“These are Syrians who have been living in Turkey for more than 10 years, their children have been going to school in Turkey from day one. So, the pledges of sending them back voluntarily, it is very questionable to what extent they can be implemented.”
Greece and the East Med
Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with the Erdoğan even warning that a missile could strike Athens.
But the prompt reaction by the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and a visit by the Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new backdrop for bilateral relations.
A Turkish drill ship before it leaves for gas exploration | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images
Dendias, along with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced that Turkey would vote for Greece in its campaign for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for 2025-26 and that Greece would support the Turkish candidacy for the General Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization.
In another sign of a thaw, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi visited Turkey this month, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar saying he hoped that the Mediterranean and Aegean would be a “sea of friendship” between the two countries. Akar said he expected a moratorium with Greece in military and airforce exercises in the Aegean Sea between June 15 and September 15.
“Both countries are going to have elections, and probably they will have the elections on the same day. So, this will open a new horizon in front of both countries,” Çeviköz said.
“The rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in their bilateral problems [in the Aegean], will facilitate the coordination in addressing the other problems in the eastern Mediterranean, which is a more multilateral format,” he said. Disputes over maritime borders and energy exploration, for example, are common.
As far as Cyprus is concerned, Çeviköz said that it is important for Athens and Ankara not to intervene into the domestic politics of Cyprus and the “two peoples on the island should be given an opportunity to look at their problems bilaterally.”
However, analysts argue that Greece, Cyprus and the EastMed are fundamental for Turkey’s foreign policy and not much will change with another government. The difference will be more one of style.
“The approach to manage those differences will change very much. So, we will not hear aggressive rhetoric like: ‘We will come over one night,’” said Ülgen. “We’ll go back to a more mature, more diplomatic style of managing differences and disputes.”
“The NATO framework will be important, and the U.S. would have to do more in terms of re-establishing the sense of balance in the Aegean,” said Aydıntaşbaş. But, she argued, “you just cannot normalize your relations with Europe or the U.S., unless you’re willing to take that step with Greece.”
Stop driving Europe away from the United States, dismayed central and eastern European officials fumed on Tuesday as French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments continued to ripple across the Continent.
Macron jolted allies in the EU’s eastern half after a visit to China last week when he cautioned the Continent against getting pulled into a U.S.-China dispute over Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own, imploring his neighbors to avoid becoming Washington and Beijing’s “vassals.”
The comments rattled those near the EU’s eastern edge, who have historically favored closer ties with the Americans — especially on defense — and pushed for a hasher approach to Beijing.
“Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Tuesday before flying off to the U.S., of all places, for a three-day visit.
Privately, diplomats were even franker.
“We cannot understand [Macron’s] position on transatlantic relations during these very challenging times,” said one diplomat from an Eastern European country, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely express themselves. “We, as the EU, should be united. Unfortunately, this visit and French remarks following it are not helpful.”
The reactions reflect the long-simmering divisions within Europe over how to best defend itself. Macron has long argued for Europe to become more autonomous economically and militarily — a push many in Central and Eastern Europe fear could alienate a valuable U.S. helping keep Russia at bay, even if they support boosting the EU’s ability to act independently.
“In the current world of geopolitical shifts, and especially in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is obvious that democracies have to work closer together than ever before,” said another senior diplomat from Eastern Europe. “We should be all reminded of the wisdom of the first U.S ambassador to France Benjamin Franklin who rightly remarked that either we stick together or we will be hanged separately.”
Macron, a third senior diplomat from the same region huffed, was freelancing yet again: “It is not the first time that Macron has expressed views that are his own and do not represent the EU’s position.”
Walking into controversy
In his interview, Macron touched on a tense subject within Europe: how it should balance itself against the superpower fight between the U.S. and China.
The French president encouraged Europe to chart its own course, cautioning that Europe faces a “great risk” if it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy.”
Macron said he wants Europe to become a “third pole” to counterbalance China and the U.S. in the long term | Pool photo by Jacques Witt/AFP via Getty Images
It’s a stance that has many adherents within Europe — and has even worked its way into official EU policy as officials work to slowly ensure the Continent’s supply lines aren’t fully yoked to China and others on everything from weapons to electric vehicles.
Macron said he wants Europe to become a “third pole” to counterbalance China and the U.S. in the long term. An imminent conflict between Being and Washington, he argued, would put that goal at risk.
Yet out east, officials lamented that the French leader was simply treating the U.S. and China as if they were essentially the same in a global power play.
The comments, the second diplomat said, were “both ill-timed and inappropriate to put both the United States and China on a par and suggest that the EU should keep strategic distance to both of them.”
A Central European diplomat flatly dismissed Macron’s stance as “pretty outrageous,” while another official from the same region chalked it up to an attempt “to distract from other problems and show that France is bigger than what it is” — a reference to the protests roiling France amid Macron’s pension reforms.
The frustration in Central and Eastern Europe stems in part from a feeling that the French president has never made clear who would replace Washington in Europe — especially if Russia expands its war beyond Ukraine, said Kristi Raik, head of the foreign policy program at the International Centre for Defence and Security, a think tank in Estonia, a country of about 1.3 million people that borders Russia.
It’s an emotional point for Europe’s eastern half, where memories of the Soviet era linger.
“We hear Macron talking about European strategic autonomy, and somehow just being completely silent about the issue, which has become so clear in Ukraine, that actually European security and defense depends very strongly on the U.S.,” Raik said.
Raik noted, of course, that European countries, most notably Germany, are scrambling to update their militaries. France has also pledged large increases in its defense budgets.
But these changes, she cautioned, will take a “very long time.”
If Macron “wants to be serious in showing that he really aims at a Europe that is capable of defending itself,” Raik argued, “he also should be showing that France is willing to do much more to defend Europe vis-à-vis Russia.”
BERLIN — German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is heading to China to represent Berlin, but she’ll likely have more explaining to do about Paris in the wake of French President Emmanuel Macron’s explosive comments on Taiwan.
As Baerbock embarked on her two-day visit Wednesday evening, officials in Berlin were eager to stress that Germany and the EU care about Taiwan and stability in the region, arguing it’s mainly China that must contribute to de-escalation by refraining from aggressive military maneuvers close to the island nation.
Baerbock’s trip comes amid international backlash against Macron’s comments in an interview with POLITICO, arguing Europe should avoid becoming America’s follower, including on the matter of Taiwan’s security. Although German government spokespeople refused to comment directly on the French president’s remarks, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry specifically called out Beijing when expressing “great concern” over the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
“We expect all parties in the region to contribute to peace. That applies equally to the People’s Republic of China,” the spokesperson said, adding: “And it seems to us that actions such as military threatening gestures are counter to that goal and, in fact, increase the risk of unintended military clashes.”
Nils Schmid, the foreign policy spokesperson for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), said he expects Baerbock to “set the record straight” during her trip to China, which will involve meetings with Beijing’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang, Vice President Han Zheng and top diplomat Wang Yi.
“We clearly defined in the [government] coalition agreement that we need a changed China policy because China has changed. The chancellor made that clear during his visit. Above all, Scholz also issued clear warnings about Taiwan during his visit [last year],” Schmid wrote in a tweet. “I assume that Foreign Minister Baerbock will repeat exactly that and thus set the record straight and make a clarification after Macron’s botched visit.”
Berlin traditionally has been much more in sync with the U.S. on foreign and security policy than France has, which is why many politicians and officials in the German capital reacted with horror to Macron’s comments. The French president said Europe should not take its “cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” suggesting the EU stood between the two sides, rather than being aligned with its longtime democratic partners in Washington.
Macron gave the impression to some in the U.S. that Europeans see Beijing and Washington as “equidistant” from Brussels in terms of values and as allies, said SPD foreign policy lawmaker Metin Hakverdi, who is currently on a parliamentary visit to the U.S.
“That was foolish,” Hakverdi told POLITICO, adding that “Macron potentially damaged the peaceful status quo around Taiwan” by giving “the public impression that Europe has no particular interest in the conflict over Taiwan.
“The issue of Taiwan is not an internal matter for the People’s Republic of China. Anything else would virtually invite Beijing to attack Taiwan,” Hakverdi added. “I am confident that our foreign minister will make that clear during her trip to Asia — both to Beijing and to our Asian partners.”
Katja Leikert from the main German opposition party, the center-right CDU, criticized Macron’s comments as “extremely short-sighted,” and added: “Should China decide to strike Taiwan militarily, either by invading it or by starting a maritime blockade, this would have significant political and economic repercussions for us. We cannot just wish that away.
“What we actually need to do right now is strengthen our defense against aggressive measures from Beijing,” Leikert said.
For Berlin, Macron’s comments also come at a particularly bad moment for transatlantic ties. The German government is keen to mend cracks in its relationship with Washington that have emerged over the controversial benefits for U.S. businesses under Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Europe hopes to reach an agreement so that its own companies may also be eligible for these subsidies.
Macron’s comments “will not help in renegotiations on the Inflation Reduction Act, nor will they help Joe Biden in the election campaign against populist Republican candidates,” said the SPD’s Hakverdi.
The German foreign ministry spokesperson was quick to stress that both France and Germany were involved in shaping a joint EU-China policy | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
The German foreign ministry spokesperson was quick to stress that both France and Germany were involved in shaping a joint EU-China policy, which was also done in cooperation “with our transatlantic partner.”
During her trip to China, Baerbock plans to raise the situation in the Taiwan Strait; Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; the human rights situation in China; as well as the fight against climate crisis, the spokesperson said.
Baerbock’s foreign ministry is also currently drafting Germany’s first China strategy. A draft of this seen by POLITICO last year vowed to take a much harder line toward Beijing. Baerbock and her Green party are at the forefront of pushing such a tougher position, while Scholz has long preferred a softer approach.
Incidentally, however, the German government said Wednesday it is reassessing whether to potentially take a firmer stance and ban Chinese state company Cosco from going through with a highly controversial move to buy parts of a Hamburg port terminal.
Scholz had strongly pushed for the port deal ahead of his own trip to Beijing last year, but the future of the transaction is now in doubt after German security authorities classified the terminal as “critical infrastructure.”
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 412th day, we take a look at the main developments.
Here is the situation as it stands on Tuesday, April 11, 2023:
Fighting
The Moscow-installed head of the part of Ukraine’s Donetsk region occupied by Russia, Denis Pushilin, said Russian forces control “more than 75 percent” of Bakhmut.
The commander of Ukrainian ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Russian troops had switched to “scorched earth” tactics in Bakhmut.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned Russian air attacks on Orthodox Palm Sunday, including an attack that killed a man and his daughter at home in the city of Zaporizhzhia.
The governor of the front-line town of Avdiivka, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, said the town’s population has dropped to just 1,800 from 32,000 before the war.
Diplomacy
The United States has said it is still assessing an apparent leak of documents containing US military intelligence, which a Pentagon spokesman said could pose “a very serious risk to national security” and lead to the spread of misinformation.
The US government will seek to rally allies this week to ratchet up economic pressure on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and shore up support for Kyiv, Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh said.
Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister began a visit to India, saying Kyiv is seeking a visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top officials. Emine Dzhaparova also said that New Delhi should be more involved in resolving the war in Ukraine.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will meet his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Beijing this week to discuss trade and the war in Ukraine.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for an unannounced meeting in Minsk and said he had received indication from Moscow that Russia would defend Belarus “like its own territory” in the event of external attack.
The Kremlin said it is hard to imagine France playing the role of mediator in Ukraine because Paris had taken the side of one of the parties in the conflict.
Washington accused Moscow of violating international law in denying US officials consular access to detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. The US formally designated Gershkovich as “wrongfully detained“.
Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza said he stood by all of his political statements, including those he made against Russia’s war on Ukraine, which have left him facing 25 years in jail.
A Russian court sentenced two former officials to 19 years in prison for throwing Molotov cocktails at a town hall in protest against military mobilisation, according to Russian news agencies.
The Defense Department is still trying to determine how apparent classified documents managed to leak on social media. The documents purport to show top-secret information on the war in Ukraine and other parts of the world. Catherine Herridge has more.
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The Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into the leak of documents that “appear to contain sensitive and highly classified material,” a Defense Department spokesperson said Sunday. The Pentagon was also still assessing the validity of the documents, the spokesperson said.
“An interagency effort has been stood up, focused on assessing the impact these photographed documents could have on U.S. national security and on our Allies and partners,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said in a statement. “Over the weekend, U.S. officials have engaged with Allies and partners and have informed relevant congressional committees of jurisdiction about the disclosure.”
A document marked “top secret” that shows the daily disposition of forces in Ukraine was leaked and began showing up on social media, a U.S. official confirmed Friday.
The official said that someone apparently took a picture of the document and posted it on the social media platform Telegram before it was then picked up on Twitter.
Several slides pertaining to the war in Ukraine were posted to Telegram on Thursday, and, while the documents appeared authentic, U.S. officials warned some of them appeared to have been altered. One of the slides showed an estimate of 16,000-17,500 Russians killed in action, but U.S. defense officials have publicly said that Russia has suffered over 200,000 casualties.
The documents that were posted are also more than a month old.
Several more documents purporting to cover other parts of the world, not just Ukraine, continued to leak on Friday. These documents appear to show tensions with South Korea over military aid, the U.S. considering leaning on Israel to provide lethal aid to Ukraine and information on the Wagner mercenary group, according to the New York Times, which first reported the leak.
—David Martin and Eleanor Watson contributed reporting.
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But some say that’s only the beginning of their concerns.
With anti-Russian sentiment on the rise, several Russian citizens spoke to CNBC Travel about their worries, how they’re treated when they travel, and what goes through their minds when people ask where they are from.
Julia Azarova, an independent journalist, said she left Russia a year ago. She said she fled Moscow for Istanbul after the invasion of Ukraine, before eventually settling in Lithuania.
“I had to leave my own country” or risk imprisonment, she said. “We had to pack our things in a day and go.”
Since then, Azarova said she’s been to Latvia twice, but she can’t go to Ukraine, where she has relatives. Her Russian friends have encountered problems getting into Poland, while her colleagues have been prevented from entering Georgia, the latter likely in a show of loyalty to Putin, she said.
Anna — who asked that we not use her real name over fears of “unpredictable consequences” — has the opposite problem. She said she’s in Moscow and doesn’t know when she will leave Russia again.
Traveling somewhere abroad seems like something unimaginable and impossible.
“Normally, I’d visit one to two countries a year,” she said. But now “traveling somewhere abroad seems like something unimaginable and impossible.”
Traveling, especially airfare, is very expensive, she said. Also, “Russian credit cards are blocked almost everywhere and buying foreign currency in Russia is so difficult.”
As for when she plans to go abroad again: “Probably when the war ends.”
Another Russian traveler, Lana, also asked that we not use her full name over fears of retaliation from Russian authorities. She lives in Asia and was planning to go home last summer for the first time since the pandemic started, she said.
But she canceled the trip after the invasion of Ukraine, she said, despite her parents not having seen her child in years.
“I didn’t know what was going to happen,” she said, adding that the risk of border closures or flight cancellations prompted her decision.
Rather than returning home, Lana traveled around Asia — to places like Thailand and Japan.
It’s “really hard to go abroad and meet new people thinking that you are the person from Russia — and how people will respond to that,” Lana said.
She said when people ask where’s she from, there’s an “anticipation moment” that didn’t exist when she was young.
“Back then, when you say ‘I’m from Russia,’ the first thing people say is vodka, bears, Matryoshka [dolls], and all that innocent stuff,” she said. “You kind of feel like yeah, I’m from Russia — it’s cool.”
Lana told CNBC Travel being from Russia used to elicit comments about ballet, vodka and Matryoshka dolls.
Bo Zaunders | Corbis Documentary | Getty Images
But it’s different now, she said. While traveling, she braced for negative comments. Yet so far none have come, she said. Rather, people have offered words of sympathy and concern, she said.
Lana may have been lucky. A wave of anger at Russia has blanketed parts of the world, from Europe to the United States, in incidents which the Russian government has used to stoke nationalism in the country.
“Not everyone understands that the government, the country and the people, it’s not always the same thing,” she said. “Let’s say you’re from … [the United] States, I mean, you might not support Trump after all, right? The same thing’s been happening in Russia for the past, probably, 10 years.”
Anna said telling new people she’s Russian has “always been tricky, to be honest, even before the war.”
She said there’s a “prejudice and stigma about Russians,” describing instances in Polish restaurants where waitstaff refused to serve her after spotting her Russian guidebook. After that, she began hiding her nationality more, she said.
She said being asked where she’s from will be even harder once she starts traveling abroad again.
“After the war, I guess, I’ll be afraid of the question even more, because I’ll instantly feel the need to start explaining myself, fearing a negative and aggressive reaction.”
Azarova agreed it’s hard to meet foreigners, especially as she wrestles with her own feelings of “guilt.”
“You understand that you personally haven’t done anything wrong, but you can’t get rid of the idea that something’s wrong with you personally,” she said.
After the invasion, Russian journalist Julia Azarova fled Moscow with her husband, who is also a journalist. She said she welcomes people asking her about the war. “I’m honestly very, very glad to say what I think about that.”
Source: Julia Azarova
Since leaving Russia, Azarova said she’s not had any confrontations over her nationality. However, like Anna, she said she often feels the need to quickly say how she feels about the war.
She said her conversations with foreigners have helped her because “you get the feeling that nobody’s blaming you.”
Now she’s now no longer afraid to say she’s Russian, she said, namely because she can’t do anything about it.
“But I can do something to show the face of Russians who are not for Putin, who are not for that war … and who tried to do something to stop it.”
She now covers the war for the news channel Khodorkovsky Live, a YouTube channel backed by the exiled Russian businessman and prominent Kremlin critic, Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
“People are just people,” Lana said, “regardless of nationality, your passport, your citizenship. I’ve lived in a few countries. I’ve traveled a lot. From my experience, most of the time stereotypes just don’t stand.”
Anna said she wants the world to know that not all Russians are “crazy scary.” Rather, they are friendly, warm-hearted, ready to help and eager to be good friends, she said.
“Many of us are trying hard to change something but people should know that it is difficult and very dangerous indeed to do … People should know, that behind scary news about Russia, there are millions of Russians, who suffer, who are scared and who are trapped, and who pray for peace every single day.”
Azarova said she wishes the world understood that sanctioning the Russian people, as opposed to the government and ruling elite, won’t influence Putin.
Lana said of recent trips to Thailand and Japan: “When you talk to people on a personal level, they do not perceive you as a representative of a country …you’re just a human being with your own thoughts and feelings.”
Tomosang | Moment | Getty Images
That’s because their opinions don’t affect change, like in a democracy, since “Putin is not an elected leader. This is a very, very important point. He hasn’t been elected in a fair and free election,” she said.
Plus, Putin doesn’t care what happens to Russian people, she said — their difficulties won’t change anything.
What will? “If Putin is removed by force” she said. But “Russian people don’t have … weapons.”
“God protects me,” says 73-year-old Tamara. She’s one of the few people who have stayed in the town of Konstantinivka, eastern Ukraine.
“If there is a need, God will save me. If not,” she adds with a shrug, “it is what it is.”
Tamara has lived in the same flat for the past 40 years. Her son, a drug addict she says nonchalantly, is in Russia. Her husband died long ago. Now, it’s just her and her cat.
Konstantinivka is 22 kilometres, about 13.5 miles west of the city of Bakhmut, scene of some of the most intense fighting in the war.
Tamara is waiting for a bus home, sitting on a broken wooden bench in the square which also serves as the town’s main taxi stand.
On this day there is only one taxi with a sign on the windshield offering rides to Dnipro, a four-hour drive to the west, far away from the frontlines. There are no takers.
Occasionally the air shakes with distant explosions.
Stray dogs prowl the center of the square, on the lookout for scraps. In January when I was last here, they hung around sandwich and kebab shops. The shops are now all shuttered.
On the ground next to Tamara is a shopping bag containing her purse and a few groceries. She says she can’t survive on her monthly pension, amounting to about fifty dollars. She supplements it with food shared by soldiers passing through town. When all else fails, she says, she begs.
Tamara wears scuffed and dirty white running shoes, the laces untied. Her feet don’t reach the ground.
Earlier this week missiles struck an apartment building in Konstantinivka, killing six people.
As she waits for the bus, Tamara quickly crosses herself.
The towns and villages close to the fighting are largely abandoned. As the fighting in Bakhmut rages on – the battle has been going on for more than seven months – Russian shells and missiles land in communities well away from the front lines.
What passes for normal life is a thing of the past here. Many of the windows in houses and apartment buildings in Konstantinivka have been blown out. Remaining residents nail plastic sheeting to the window frames to keep out the cold.
Running water and electricity are intermittent at best.
In the courtyard of a crumbling Soviet-era apartment block, Nina, 72, surveys the wreckage around her. An incoming missile hit a shed, shredding trees, throwing mangled sheets of metal in all directions, splattering shrapnel on surrounding walls.
“I’m on the last breath of survival,” she sighs. “I’m on the verge of needing a psychiatrist.”
What keeps her sane, she tells us, are her flat mates – five dogs and two cats.
“In the market they tell me I should feed myself, not my cats and dogs,” she says, a smile creeping onto her wrinkled face.
As we speak another old woman in a stained winter coat trudges by, dragging a bundle of twigs to heat her home.
An eerie metallic squeak echoes across the courtyard as a young girl, perhaps 10 or 11 years-old, sways on a rusty swing. Her face is blank. For more than half an hour she goes back and forth, back and forth, back and forth.
Since shortly after the war began more than a year ago Ukrainian officials have urged the residents of communities near the worst of the fighting to evacuate to safer ground.
Many have heeded the call but often the elderly, the infirm and the impoverished insist on staying put. And try as they might to persuade the hesitant, the government hasn’t the manpower and resources to forcibly evict them.
In the town of Siversk, northeast of Bakhmut, barely a structure has been left undamaged. On the main road, incoming artillery shells have left gaping holes, now full of water.
At the entrance to an apartment building, Valentina and her neighbour, also named Nina, are getting a bit of fresh air. They pay no mind to the Soviet-era armoured personnel carrier parked next to the building opposite them.
Every night, and often almost every day, Nina and Valentina must huddle in their basement, which doubles as a bomb shelter. Nina’s husband is disabled and never leaves the basement.
Here, there is no running water, no electricity, no internet, so mobile signal. I only found one small store open.
Valentina struggles to look on the bright side. “It’s fine” she responds in a loud, confident voice when I ask how she is. “We put up with everything!”
“What do we feel?” responds Nina in a quivering voice. “Pain. Pain. When you see something destroyed you tear up. We cry. We cry.”
Valentina’s mask drops, she nods, and her eyes fill with tears.
A group of 31 Ukrainian children have been reunited with their families months after they were taken from their homes and moved to Russian-occupied territories.
A CNN team on the ground in Kyiv watched as the last of the children climbed off a bus on Saturday to embrace waiting family members, many unable to hold back the tears as months of separation came to an end.
“We went to the summer camp for two weeks but we got stuck there for six months,” one of the homecoming teenagers, Bogdan, 13, said as he hugged his mother. “I cried when I saw my mom from the bus. I’m very happy to be back.”
Bogdan’s mother, Iryna, 51, said she had received very little information about her son in the six months they were apart.
“There was no phone connection. I was very worried. I didn’t know anything, whether he was being abused, what was happening to him. … My hands are still shaking,” she said.
The reunions were coordinated by the humanitarian organization Save Ukraine. The group says it has now completed five missions bringing home Ukrainian children it says were forcibly deported by Russia.
The children – pulling suitcases and bags of belongings, with some clutching stuffed animals – accompanied by family members, had crossed the border by foot a day earlier and were met by volunteers before being put on the bus to the Ukrainian capital.
“It is thanks to our joint and coordinated work that we once again experience these incredible emotions when, after a long separation, children run across their native land into the arms of their families. When you see tears of joy on the faces of young Ukrainians, you realize that it is not all in vain,” Save Ukraine founder Mykola Kuleba said in a press conference earlier Saturday.
Kuleba said tragedy had struck during the latest rescue mission: One of the women traveling with the party – a grandmother – passed away during the journey. The woman had been due to pick up two children on the mission, but because of her death, the pair were not permitted to travel back to Ukraine.
The founder earlier said the mission comprised a group of 13 mothers, who left Ukraine a little over a week ago, many of them granted power of attorney which allowed them to collect other parents’ children in addition to their own.
The group crossed into Poland before traveling through Belarus, Russia and finally entering Russian-occupied Crimea, where they were reunited with 24 of the children.
The other seven children were collected in Voronezh, Rostov and Belgorod, all inside Russia, she said.
Allegations of widespread forced deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia form the basis of war crimes charges brought against Russian President Vladimir Putin and a senior official, Maria Lvova-Belova, by the International Criminal Court last month.
A report released in February detailed allegations of an expansive network of dozens of camps where kids underwent “political reeducation,” including Russia-centric academic, cultural and, in some cases, military education.
Ukraine’s head of the Office of the President recently estimated the total number of children forcibly removed from their homes is at least 20,000. Kyiv has said thousands of cases are already under investigation.
Russia has denied it is doing anything illegal, claiming it is bringing Ukrainian children to safety.
Many cities and towns in eastern Ukrainian have been devastated by Russia’s invasion. Ramy Inocencio travels to Kupyansk, a city on the front lines of the war, to survey the destruction.
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