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What Biden will ask for in Oval Office address
What Biden will ask for in Oval Office address – CBS News
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Biden plans to use Oval Office address to make case for wartime aid to Israel and Ukraine | CNN Politics
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CNN
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President Joe Biden plans to make a direct appeal to the American people to continue funding Ukraine and Israel amid their war efforts in an Oval Office address Thursday, according to two administration officials.
The primetime address will take place on the eve of the White House requesting north of $100 billion from Congress to deliver aid and resources to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the US border with Mexico. Biden is expected to make the argument that supporting Ukraine and Israel is a matter of US national security when the world is at an inflection point.
“He’s going to make the case that the cost of inaction and the cost of walking away is much higher,” according to one official.
The Biden administration in August delivered its last so-called supplemental funding request, which encapsulates unique requests beyond traditional government programs. The proposal requested $24.1 billion to aid Ukraine through the end of the year, but Congress failed to approve it during a process to greenlight short-term federal funding.
As he watched the horrific scenes of violence unfold in Israel, Biden expressed to his top advisers in recent days a desire to speak directly to the American people about the importance of supporting United States’ allies that are fighting back unprompted attacks.
That desire set in motion days of planning and speechwriting for Biden’s Thursday primetime speech to be delivered from the Oval Office, one senior administration official told CNN. The president made clear to his advisers that the speech should emphasize that the US’s support for Ukraine and Israel is not just a powerful message to send to the world, but a matter of US national security, as well.
Advisers expect that as with any major speech, the president himself will be making final touches and edits to the prepared remarks in the hours leading up to the speech.
Public opinion regarding US assistance has been mixed.
In a recent CNN poll, nearly all respondents were sympathetic with the Israeli people in the wake of surprise attacks launched by Hamas, but there was no clear consensus on the right level of US involvement. One-third (35%) said the US is providing the right amount of assistance – and another 36% were unsure whether the level of US assistance is appropriate. The US has long provided security assistance to Israel, which receives roughly $4 billion annually under a 10-year memorandum of understanding. The new request would provide billions more.
By contrast, support to sustain aid to Ukraine has waned significantly since Russia’s unprovoked invasion in February 2022. An August CNN poll found 55% of respondents said Congress should not pass more funding to aid Ukraine. The partisan divide has been deepening, too: Nearly three-quarters of Republicans opposed more funding for Ukraine, while 62% of Democrats supported it.
Since Russia’s invasion, the White House and Congress have provided more than $75 billion in funding to Kyiv, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pledged to European leaders on Monday that the US would be able to secure support for additional aid and, in an interview with Sky News, said Washington could afford financing two war efforts at once.
“American can certainly afford to stand with Israel and to support Israel’s military needs, and we also can and must support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia.”
Biden’s upcoming remarks, first announced Wednesday, come on the heels of his wartime visit to the Middle East, which went on even after a blast tore through a hospital in Gaza. While his planned stop in Amman, Jordan, to meet Arab leaders was canceled just as the president was preparing to depart the White House, Biden did spend hours on the ground in Tel Aviv.
Officials on Wednesday sought to downplay the cancellation, saying it was natural for President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority to return to the West Bank to mourn the dead. Later, Biden scoffed at the suggestion he was disappointed the meeting had been canceled.
“Disappointed? Look, I came to get something done. I got it done,” he said. “Not many people thought we could get this done, and not many people want to be associated with failure.”
For Biden, a trip in the formative days of a potentially drawn-out conflict amounted to the ultimate test of his confidence – built over decades – that getting in the same room can influence people and events.
The US, Egypt and Israel have all signaled readiness for aid to begin moving into Gaza, following Biden’s high-profile visit.
in a meeting that stretched well past what officials had expected, Biden sought to use his decades-long relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – one that has endured significant strain over the past year – to offer advice and seek commitments on the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Beforehand, officials said Biden would approach the Israeli leader with “tough questions” about the path forward and Israel’s intentions as it seeks to eliminate Hamas in Gaza. Speaking later, Biden offered a glimpse of how those conversations went, or at least his side of them.
“I caution this: While you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it,” Biden told his audience, a collection of Israelis and Americans.
“I know the choices are never clear or easy for the leadership,” Biden went on, recalling mistakes the United States made after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. “There’s always cost, but it requires being deliberate, requires asking very hard questions. That requires clarity about the objectives and an honest assessment about whether the path you’re on will achieve those objectives.”
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Biden reaffirms support for Israel, advocates for aid to Palestinians during wartime trip
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Biden reaffirms support for Israel, advocates for aid to Palestinians during wartime trip – CBS News
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Ukraine says Israel-Hamas war shows West must ramp up arms production
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BERLIN — Facing war on two fronts — in Ukraine and in the Middle East — Kyiv is calling on Western democracies to ramp up investment in weapons, saying that arms factory output worldwide is falling miles short of what is needed.
In an interview, Ukraine’s Minister for Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin told POLITICO Western countries needed to accelerate production of missiles, shells and military drones as close to frontlines as possible.
“The free world should be producing enough to protect itself,” Kamyshin said, on a mission to the German capital to persuade arms producers to invest in war-ravaged Ukraine. “That’s why we have to produce more and better weapons to stay safe.”
Current factory capacity was woeful, he argued. “If you get together all the worldwide capacities for weapons production, for ammunition production, that will be not enough for this war,” said Kamyshin of the state of play along Ukraine’s more than 1,000 kilometers of active frontline.
As the Israel Defense Forces continue to pummel Gaza and fighting gathers pace along the contact line in Ukraine, armies are burning through ammunition at a rate not seen in decades. Policymakers are asking whether Western allies can support both countries with air defense systems and artillery at once.
The answer, says Kamyshin, is to start building out production facilities now. “What happens in Israel now shows and proves that the defense industry globally is a destination for investments for decades,” he said.
Since Russia’s war on Ukraine started in February 2022, western governments have been funneling arms to Kyiv. That includes hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, armored vehicles and other equipment.
But as the grind of war continues, Kyiv has changed tack — appointing Kamyshin, the former boss of Ukraine’s state railway — to the post of minister for strategic industries. Ukraine, formerly a major military hub in the Soviet Union, is now trying to increase output of armored vehicles, ammunition and air defense systems, he said, and wants Western partners to invest.
A key step is expected on Tuesday, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will announce a new joint venture between Rheinmetall and Ukroboronprom, a Ukrainian defense company, Kamyshin said.
In late September, Germany’s Federal Cartel Office gave the green light to the cooperation agreement after a review that found the proposed venture “does not result in any overlaps in terms of competition in Germany.”
Building local
Last March, EU countries pledged to send a million artillery rounds to Ukraine over the following year as part of a program to lift production. Ukraine may need as much as 1.5 million shells annually to sustain its war effort, a daunting task that Kamyshin hopes he can help, at least partially, with domestic output.
In total, Ukraine has received over 350 self-propelled and towed artillery systems from NATO countries and Australia. Combined with Soviet-era pieces in Ukrainian stocks prior to the Russian invasion, Kyiv has approximately 1,600 pieces of artillery in service — but must cover a massive front.
Ukraine has received over 350 self-propelled and towed artillery systems from NATO countries and Australia | Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images And although the deepening of the German-Ukrainian defense relationship is a boon for Kyiv’s war effort, the enemy on the battlefield — Russia — can also leverage its own international relationships for war materiel, and has been quick to agree military hardware deals with the likes of Iran and North Korea.
Earlier this month, reports pointed out Pyongyang likely transferred a sizable shipment of artillery ammunition to Russia. The details of the deal are secret, but the shipment came on the heels of a visit to Pyongyang by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in turn made a trip to Russia by rail and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russia previously struck a deal with Tehran for Iranian loitering munitions that hammered cities across Ukraine last winter in an intentional targeting of civilian infrastructure.
The increasingly international scope of sourcing for the war in Ukraine is not limited to non-NATO countries. Poland recently started taking delivery of tanks, howitzers, rocket launchers and light attack aircraft from South Korea, a nod to how quickly Seoul can ramp up production affordably.
For Kamyshin, the key was to make plans for the long term.
“This war can be for decades,” he said. “[The] Russians can come back always.”
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Joshua Posaner and Caleb Larson
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Von der Leyen doubles down on pro-Israel stance, lashes out at Iran
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday reiterated her strongly pro-Israeli stance despite growing criticism from within her own staff, while also harshly criticizing Iran for seeking to sow “violence and chaos” in the Middle East.
Some 800 EU staff took the unusual step of writing to von der Leyen at the end of last week to protest against what they see as unjustifiable bias toward Israel in the Israel-Hamas war. The protest came after the president neglected to mention the EU’s support for Palestinian statehood in a speech on Thursday in Washington — despite a two-state solution being a core part of the position of European countries.
Yet on Sunday von der Leyen doubled down on her previous stance during a speech to the youth organization of her German center-right CDU/CSU political group.
While she stressed that any Israeli defense against the Hamas terrorist group must be “in accordance with international law,” she again did not mention Palestinian statehood and instead just referred to necessary humanitarian aid, saying: “There is no contradiction in standing in solidarity with Israel and providing humanitarian aid in Gaza.”
Von der Leyen also compared Israel’s role in the conflict to Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression.
“All these conflicts have one thing in common: they are about the struggle between those who seek peace, balance, freedom and cooperation — and those who do not want any of this because they profit from the chaos and disorder,” von der Leyen said in her speech at the CDU/CSU youth wing congress in Braunschweig, Germany.
Her remarks can be seen as controversial because, even though Israel is undeniably defending itself following a brutal aggression by Hamas terrorists, the country’s at times very complicated and highly criticized settlement policy may not exactly qualify as balanced or in the interest of peace and cooperation.
Human Rights Watch has criticized Israel for “committing the crimes against humanity of apartheid and persecution against millions of Palestinians.”
Von der Leyen also took a very critical position toward Iran, saying that Tehran stood “behind Hamas.” She added: “Iran has no interest whatsoever in this region coming to peace. On the contrary, Iran wants to foment violence and chaos because that secures its influence.”
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Hans von der Burchard
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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 603
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As the war enters its 603rd day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Thursday, October 19, 2023.
Fighting
- At least 10 people were killed in Russian attacks, including five who died after a missile hit a residential building in the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia. The other deaths were reported in the central region of Dnipropetrovsk, the southern region of Kherson and the southern city of Mykolaiv. “The evil state continues to use terror and wage war on civilians. Russian terror must be defeated,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
- General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who leads Ukraine’s military operations in the south, said troops from the Tavria, or southern group of forces, were “continuing their offensive” as part of a planned advance towards the Sea of Azov. “They have had partial success to the south of Robotyne,” Tarnavskyi wrote on Telegram.
- Russian shelling around Avdiivka eased, but authorities said they expected Russia to escalate its assault on the front-line town in the coming days. Russian forces now control territory to the east, north and south of Avdiivka, gradually tightening the noose in a bid to push Ukrainian forces further from eastern Donetsk.
- Ukraine’s General Staff, in its evening report, said forces had repelled attacks in several areas along the 1,000km (620-mile) front line – including 15 around the long-contested town of Maryinka in Donetsk region and 10 further north near Kupiansk.
Avdiivka has been the target of intense fighting over the past week [Stringer/AFP] - Russia shot down two missiles over Crimea, the peninsula it annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Regional governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said one of the missiles was brought down over Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. He said the missile had detonated in a field, and that there had been no injuries or damage to infrastructure.
- Russia’s defence ministry said air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 28 Ukrainian drones over its Belgorod and Kursk regions and over the Black Sea. It did not elaborate on these claims.
- Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said the country was reinforcing its western border in anticipation of F-16 fighter aircraft being supplied to Ukraine in 2024.
Politics and diplomacy
- Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held bilateral talks in Beijing. Xi said the “political mutual trust” between their countries was “continuously deepening”. Putin, meanwhile, said the growing number of world conflicts and threats would “strengthen” ties between Moscow and Beijing. The two men last met in Moscow in March.
- Speaking at a press conference after the talks, Putin said that the United States had made a mistake by providing Kyiv with long-range ATACMS missiles. He said the supply of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) would only “prolong the agony” for Ukraine. “We will, of course, be able to repel these attacks. War is war,” Putin said.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov thanked North Korea for its “unwavering and principled support” over the war in Ukraine and pledged Moscow’s “complete support and solidarity” for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Russia’s foreign ministry said. Lavrov travelled to Pyongyang on Wednesday for a two-day visit.
- French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his country’s support for Ukraine amid the deepening Israel-Hamas war during a phone call with Zelenskyy. “He assured the Ukrainian president that the proliferation of crises would not weaken French and European support for Ukraine, which will be there for as long as it takes,” said Macron’s office.
Russia’s lower house of parliament passed a bill revoking the ratification of the global nuclear test ban treaty, a move Moscow described as putting it on par with the United States [The State Duma via AP Photo] - Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said the images of Hungary’s prime minister shaking hands with Putin as the two men met in Beijing were “very, very unpleasant” and defied logic given Budapest’s past history with Moscow. “How can you shake a criminal’s hand, who has waged the war of aggression, especially coming from a country that has a history like Hungary has?” Kallas told the Reuters news agency. An uprising in Hungary in 1956 was crushed by the Soviet Union, killing at least 2,600 Hungarians.
Weapons
- A bill revoking Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty had its second and third readings in the lower house Duma and was passed by 415 votes to zero. It will now go to the upper house for approval, and Putin for signing. Ukraine urged the international community to respond to what it described as Moscow’s “provocations” in the area of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. Robert Floyd, the head of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, said the move was “deeply regrettable”. Russia will remain a signatory to the treaty.
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What happens next in Poland? 5 things you need to know after a landmark election
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WARSAW — After eight years of rule by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, Polish voters on Sunday chose change — giving three opposition democratic parties enough seats to form a new government.
So now is the way clear to bring Poland back into the European mainstream after dallying as an illiberal democracy?
Not so fast.
The country’s likely ruling coalition faces years of very hard political graft to undo the changes wrought by PiS since 2015.
Here are five main takeaways from an election that will shake Poland and Europe.
1. Job No. 1 — creating a new government
The final result puts PiS in first place, with 35.4 percent, according to a preliminary vote count, and 194 seats, but that’s too few for a majority in the 460-member lower house of parliament.
“We will definitely try to build a parliamentary majority,” said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
The first move belongs to President Andrzej Duda, a former PiS member who has always been loyal to the party. He has said that presidents traditionally choose the leader of the largest party to try to form a government, but if PiS really is a no-hoper, Duda could delay the formation of a stable government.
Under the Polish constitution, the president has to call a new parliamentary session within 30 days of the election. He then has 14 days to nominate a candidate for prime minister; once named, the nominee has 14 days to win a vote of confidence in parliament.
If that fails, parliament then chooses a nominee for PM.
That means if Duda sticks with PiS, it could be mid-December before the three opposition parties — Civic Coalition, the Third Way and the Left — get a chance to form a government. Together, they have 248 seats in the new legislature.
There are already voices calling on the opposition to short-circuit that by striking a coalition deal with the signatures of at least 231 MPs, demonstrating to Duda that they have a lock on forming a government.
Once in power, the opposition will find that ruling isn’t easy.
What unites the three is their distaste for PiS, but their programs differ markedly.
Civic Coalition, the largest party under the leadership of Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and European Council president, is part of the center-right European People’s Party in the European Parliament. But it also contains smaller parties from different groupings like the Greens.
The Third Way is a coalition of two parties — Poland 2050, founded by TV host Szymon Hołownia, and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), the country’s oldest political force representing the peasantry. Poland 2050 is part of Renew while PSL is in the EPP. The grouping skews center right, which means it’s likely to clash with the Left on issues like loosening draconian abortion laws.
The Left is in turn an amalgamation of three small groupings whose leaders have often been at daggers drawn.
2. There’s a mighty purge coming
A non-PiS government will have a very difficult time passing legislation as it will not have the three-fifths of parliamentary votes needed to override Duda’s veto; his term ends in 2025.
The new administration’s first job will be cleaning PiS appointees out of controling positions in government, the media and state-controlled corporations. Poland has a long tradition of governments rewarding loyalists with cushy jobs, but PiS took it to an extreme not seen since communist times.
Most of those people face dismissal.
“We will fire all members of supervisory boards and boards of directors. We will conduct new recruitment in transparent competitions, in which competence, not family and party connections, will be decisive,” says the Civic Coalition electoral program.
“We’ll end the rule of the fat cats in state companies,” says the Left’s program.
The immediate market reaction was positive, with energy company Orlen up more than 8 percent on the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Monday, and the biggest bank, PKO BP, up over 11 percent.
Poland’s state media became PiS’s propaganda arm — along with a chain of newspapers bought by state-controlled refiner Orlen — hammering Tusk as the traitorous “Herr Tusk” more loyal to Germany than Poland. Not a lot of people in the media are likely to survive what’s coming, if the new government succeeds in its goal of shutting down the National Media Council — a body stuffed with PiS loyalists that manages public media.
Poland’s state media became PiS’s propaganda arm, hammering Tusk as the traitorous “Herr Tusk” more loyal to Germany than Poland | Zbignieuw Meissner/EFE via EPA But losing a job isn’t the worst of what’s awaiting many.
3. Go directly to jail
When Tusk’s party last won power from a short-lived PiS government in 2007, the winners treated their political rivals with kid gloves and hardly anyone was prosecuted. This time the gloves are off.
In its political program, Civic Coalition promises to prosecute anyone for “breaking the constitution and rule of law.”
It aims at Duda, Morawiecki, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński and Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, Central Bank Governor Adam Glapiński for mismanaging the fight against inflation, and Orlen CEO Daniel Obajtek for heading a controversial buyout that saw the sale of part of a large refinery to foreign interests.
Expect prosecutors to track down the numerous scandals that have hit PiS over the years — from the government of former Prime Minister Beata Szydło refusing to publish verdicts issued by the Constitutional Tribunal, to Duda refusing to swear in properly elected judges to the tribunal.
There are also dodgy contracts issued during the panicky early phase of the COVID pandemic, millions spent on a 2020 election by mail that had not been approved by parliament, state companies setting up funds that poured money into PiS-backed projects, a bribes-for-visas scandal, and many more.
Many people with corporate jobs kicked back part of their salaries to PiS. Additionally, state-controlled companies directed a torrent of advertising money to often niche pro-government newspapers while neglecting larger independent media.
All of those transactions are likely to be examined and — if found to be against the interests of the corporation and its shareholders — could result in criminal charges.
The coalition promises to “hold responsible” people “guilty of civil service crimes.”
4. Reaching out to Brussels
Tusk is a Brussels animal — he spent five years there as European Council president and was also chief of the European People’s party.
PiS’s departure marks a sea change with the EU — which spent eight years tangling with Warsaw over radical changes to the judicial system aimed at bringing judges under tighter political control.
The European Commission moved to end Poland’s voting rights as an EU member under a so-called Article 7 procedure, blocked the payout of €36 billion in loans and grants from the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund, sued Poland at the Court of Justice of the EU, while the European Parliament passed resolutions decrying Warsaw’s backsliding on democratic principles.
The European Commission moved to end Poland’s voting rights as an EU member under a so-called Article 7 procedure | Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images “The day after the election, I will go and unblock the money,” Tusk vowed before the vote.
Although Tusk said all that’s required is “a little goodwill and competence,” it’s going to be tougher than he’s letting on. The PiS government tried to unlock the money by passing a partial rollback of its judicial reforms, but they’re stuck in the PiS-controlled Constitutional Tribunal. Passing any new law will require Duda’s signature and without that, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen doesn’t have the legal basis to acknowledge that Poland has met the milestones it needs to achieve to get the money.
“Perhaps the strategy of Tusk will be to try to reopen the negotiation on the milestones and kind of striking a new deal with the European Commission,” said Jakub Jaraczewski, a research coordinator for Democracy Reporting International, a Berlin-based NGO.
5. Making waves in Europe
PiS made a lot of enemies — and the new government will try to undo that damage.
Relations with Berlin have been foul, with Kaczyński pounding the German government for wanting to undermine Polish independence and accusing Berlin of aiming to strike a deal with Moscow “because it is in their economic interest as well as that of their national character: the pursuit of domination at any cost.” Kaczyński and other PiS politicians have also constantly harried Germany for not coming clean about wartime atrocities against Poland.
Tusk has been careful not to touch that issue for fear of harming his party’s electoral chances, but he’s historically had good relations with Berlin — although Poland, no matter under which government, is a big and often prickly country that’s not an easy partner.
Tusk blamed PiS for the downturn in relations with Ukraine after the Polish government restricted Ukrainian grain imports not to annoy Polish farmers and to say it would not send more weapons to Kyiv. Tusk called it “stabbing a political knife in Ukraine’s back, while the battles on the frontline are being decided.”
While Brussels, Berlin and Kyiv will be breathing a sigh of relief at the change of direction in Warsaw, things are likely to be a little more tense in Budapest. Poland and Hungary had a mutual defense pact, blocking the needed unanimity in the European Council to move on the Article 7 procedure.
Without Kaczyński to protect him, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is much more exposed. There are other populists in Europe, like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Robert Fico, who looks likely to take over in Slovakia, but they don’t face Article 7 procedures and their countries have tight relations with the EU — making it difficult to see why they’d risk that to go out on a limb to save Orbán.
Paola Tamma contributed reporting.
This article has been updated with the final election results.
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Jan Cienski
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President Joe Biden: The 2023 60 Minutes Interview
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President Joe Biden: The 2023 60 Minutes Interview – CBS News
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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 600
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As the war enters its 600th day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Monday, October 16, 2023.
Fighting
- Russia’s military continued its offensive in the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka as local authorities said two civilians were killed in shelling that was so fierce, that emergency crews were unable to recover the dead from the destroyed buildings.
- The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said its forces had repelled 15 Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Tonenke and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk region.
- Six people were killed in Russian attacks, including two in the Kherson region, amid relentless shelling. That attack also injured three people, according to Kherson Governor Oleksandr Prokudin. Two guided bombs later hit key infrastructure in Kherson city, sparking a partial blackout and disruption to the area’s water supply.
- Meanwhile, Oleh Syniehubov, the governor of the Kharkiv region, said a 54-year-old woman and a 57-year-old man were killed after their home was destroyed in a Russian air attack.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin told Russian television that the country’s forces had bolstered their positions across the entire front line in Ukraine, claiming a Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in June had “failed completely”.
- The Russian defence ministry said Ukraine launched 27 drones on western Russia. Officials said that 18 drones were shot down over the Kursk region, leading to speculation in the Russian press that the attack could have been targeting the nearby Khalino military airfield. Officials also said two more drones were shot down over the Belgorod region, but did not say what happened to the remaining drones.
- Russia said it scrambled a Su-27 fighter jet as a United States Global Hawk reconnaissance drone approached the Russian border above the Black Sea, the Interfax news agency cited the Russian defence ministry as saying.
Politics and diplomacy
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv was working to evacuate nearly 260 of its citizens from Gaza and to fly other Ukrainians out of Israel.
Weapons
- White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said President Joe Biden would hold intensive talks with members of the US Congress this week to push through a new weapons package for Ukraine and Israel, which will be significantly higher than $2bn. Sullivan told CBS’s Face the Nation that the package would include “the necessary military equipment to defend freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity in Ukraine”.
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Steve Scalise Bows Out
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When Representative Steve Scalise emerged yesterday from the private party meeting where House Republicans narrowly nominated him to serve as the next speaker, he sounded anxious to get started. “We need to send a message to people throughout the world that the House is open and doing the people’s business,” Scalise told reporters.
The Louisiana Republican wanted an immediate floor vote so that his members could formally elect him in a party-line tally. He had reason to hurry: The pile of problems—both global and domestic—that Congress must address is growing fast, and the House can do nothing without an elected speaker. The federal government will shut down on November 17 if lawmakers don’t act. Ukraine needs more funding from the U.S., and Israel, suddenly at war with Hamas, could soon as well.
Scalise’s Republican foes, however, weren’t giving in. He needed the support of 217 of the House’s 221 GOP members in order to win the speakership, and defections began popping up almost immediately. Today more Republicans came out in opposition to his bid, and this evening Scalise announced that he was withdrawing from the race. His time as the Republican nominee lasted less than a day and a half.
What began as a personal vendetta against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy by a single Republican backbencher, Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, has spiraled into a much broader crisis—not only for the slim and fractured GOP majority but for the country and its allies around the world. “It’s very dangerous what we’re doing,” Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told reporters yesterday. “We’re playing with fire.” How the impasse ends, and when, could determine whether federal agencies stay open and whether the U.S. lends more support to its allies overseas.
Here are three major issues that could hinge on the outcome of the speaker fight:
A government shutdown
In what became his final act as speaker, McCarthy averted a government shutdown by relying on Democratic help to pass a temporary extension of federal funding. But the Californian ended up sacrificing his dream job to keep the government’s lights on for a grand total of seven weeks. The supposed goal was to buy time to negotiate budget bills for the remainder of the fiscal year, but Republicans have already wasted nearly two of those weeks bickering over McCarthy and his replacement. “There’s no way we’re going to have a budget,” Representative Lois Frankel of Florida, a Democratic member of the House Appropriations Committee, told me.
Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio, whom Scalise defeated for the speaker nomination, conceded as much, reportedly telling Republicans that they would need to pass another temporary extension once the House resumes normal operations. Jordan’s proposal called for the House to extend funding for another six months, which under the budget agreement Congress enacted in June would trigger an automatic 1 percent spending cut across the board.
The best hope to avert a shutdown might be if Republicans are forced instead to elect a caretaker speaker such as Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, who is currently the acting speaker pro tempore, or Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, the House Rules Committee chair, who has good relationships with members of both parties. Some lawmakers have suggested that either Republican could serve for a few weeks or months, helping to resolve the funding crisis before giving way to a longer-term leader.
Funding for Ukraine
Although he kept the government open before he was deposed, McCarthy refused to allow passage of $6 billion in additional aid to Ukraine sought by the Biden administration and bipartisan majorities in the Senate. Neither Scalise nor Jordan would commit to sending more money to Ukraine, bowing to pressure from GOP hard-liners who have demanded that the U.S. secure the southern border before approving another infusion of aid.
Democrats feared that the election of either Scalise or Jordan could effectively end American aid to Ukraine. If Republicans are unable to secure enough votes on their own to elect a speaker, Democrats might agree to support a more moderate candidate on the condition that the House vote on an aid package, among other concessions. “I do think that a majority of House members want to continue to help Ukraine,” said Frankel, who sits on the subcommittee that oversees the foreign-aid budget. “The challenge is having a speaker who would bring up a bill to allow us to do that. That’s the danger of a Republican candidate for speaker making a deal with extremists who say, ‘Hell no.’”
Funding for Israel
Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel could reopen a path for Ukraine funding. Despite pockets of opposition on the far left and right, the Jewish state retains overwhelming bipartisan support in Congress; when Scalise left yesterday’s party meeting, he was wearing both American and Israeli flag pins on his suit jacket. Biden officials and congressional Democrats are already discussing a package that would combine funding for Israel and Ukraine, in the hope that yoking the two together would help the Ukraine aid win approval.
The success of that strategy is not guaranteed, however. When the idea came up yesterday during a classified State Department briefing for members of Congress, Frankel told me that a Republican lawmaker, Representative Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin, started shouting “No!” The outburst seemed to encapsulate a week of paralysis in a party that, until it picks a leader, can’t say yes to anything. “I’m semi-optimistic,” Frankel said with a sigh, “that at some point Republicans will come to their senses.”
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Russell Berman
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Ukrainians in Israel — from one war zone to another
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KYIV — Viktoriia Gryshchenko, an intellectual property rights specialist from Kyiv, arrived in Israel only 10 days ago, looking forward to a temporary break from Russia’s war on her homeland.
“But I only escaped from war into another war. And I say that with a bitter smile on my face,” said Gryshchenko, who had not left Kyiv since the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine more than 19 months ago.
On the morning of October 7, she awoke in Petah Tikva, a city 10 kilometers east of Tel Aviv, just as if she were back in Kyiv on February 24, 2022, as Hamas launched thousands of missiles at Israel. In addition to rocket barrages, Hamas militants stormed into Israel, killing hundreds and kidnapping dozens more. In response, Israel launched a large-scale assault and siege of Gaza.
“I can compare both wars. And Hamas is acting just like Russia. Identical attacks, identical atrocities,” Gryshchenko told POLITICO. “I can see this is the same evil that came to us.”
She is among more than 1,000 Ukrainians who have requested evacuation from Israel, while another 200 Ukrainian citizens are trapped in the Gaza Strip, according to Ukrainian officials. The first evacuation flight from Israel is planned for Saturday, with another one set for Sunday.
Gryshchenko hopes to get on one of the evacuation flights and then to return to Ukraine soon, despite the other war that continues to rage there.
Russian forces have been storming Avdiivka, an industrial city in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, for days, aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces fighting there. Although war maps by DeepState project show Moscow’s forces have gained some ground north of Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops are still holding the line in the city, according to the Ukrainian Army General Staff.
Back in the Middle East, some 1,300 in Israel have died in the conflict so far, while officials in Gaza say more than 1,500 people have been killed there in Israel’s retaliatory strikes.
Ukrainians are among the casualties.
“The number of dead Ukrainians in Israel has increased to seven people. Consuls … are taking measures for the repatriation of the bodies,” Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said in a statement on Thursday. “Another nine Ukrainians are considered missing.”
“About 200 Ukrainians have declared their desire to evacuate from the Gaza Strip,” Nikolenko said. But “due to the lack of security, departure is currently impossible,” he said.
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ukrainian embassies in Israel, Egypt, and Jordan, as well as other involved departments of Ukraine, are making active efforts to get our people out as soon as possible,” he said.
The Ukrainian foreign ministry press service told POLITICO that Kyiv plans to evacuate Ukrainians to other countries in Europe with the first flight planned for Romania. Gryshchenko hopes to be on that first evacuation flight, and then return to Ukraine.
She said the Ukrainian embassy and consuls have been quite responsive and helpful.
“Panic is a bad helper. To solve something, you need to have a calm mind. Unfortunately, the heart and soul do not always follow this,” Gryshchenko said.
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Veronika Melkozerova
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Putin to meet Xi in China this week
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Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing this week — a rare international visit by the Russian leader.
During the October 17-18 visit to Beijing, Putin will attend a forum marking 10 years of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure program that has helped boost its influence worldwide.
Washington and Brussels have been eyeing with alarm the relationship between China and Russia, with Beijing refusing to condemn Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even as it has voiced support for the principle of territorial integrity.
Russia has increased its energy exports to China as it grapples with Western sanctions imposed as a response to the invasion of Ukraine.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged China during a three-day trip to the country that wrapped up this weekend to use its influence with Russia, particularly on the U.N. Security Council, to stop the war in the country. He also warned Beijing that “any direct military support to Russia … would be a serious concern for us.”
The European Union is expected to have a summit with China before the end of the year.
This week’s Belt and Road Initiative Forum takes place against the background of a darkening economic picture for China, which has seen an economic slowdown, propelled in part by a property downturn. Representatives from more than 100 countries are expected to attend the forum in Beijing, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
At the same time, Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for more than six weeks, raising questions about his whereabouts and safety.
The visit to Beijing would mark Putin’s second international trip since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for the Russian leader’s arrest in March over the forced transport of children to Russia from Ukraine. Putin last week attended a summit of ex-Soviet nations in Kyrgyzstan. Neither Kyrgyzstan nor China is a party to the ICC.
CORRECTION: This story has been updated to indicated that the China trip would be Putin’s second international trip since the ICC issued its arrest warrant in March.
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Suzanne Lynch
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Two killed in Russia as debris from downed Ukrainian drone destroys homes
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Two others seriously injured after debris from destroyed drone crashed into homes in Russia’s Belgorod region.
At least two people were killed and two injured when debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone fell on homes in Russia’s Belgorod region, according to a local official.
Belgorod regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said early on Thursday that Russian air defences shot down an “aircraft-type” unmanned aerial vehicle as it approached Belgorod city.
“To great sorrow, there are dead. Operational services recovered the bodies of two people from the rubble – a man and a woman,” Gladkov wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
“As a result of falling debris, a private residential building caught fire,” Gladkov said, adding later that the falling debris had completely destroyed one residential building, and partially damaged two others. Three cars were also damaged.
A child was believed to still be under the rubble of the collapsed residential building, Gladkov said, adding that “the rescue operation continues”.
Rescuers recovered the bodies of two people from under the rubble of a house in Belgorod after an attack by a Ukrainian drone, the region’s governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said:https://t.co/vxD8dILHSg pic.twitter.com/pBQVwyyJuN
— TASS (@tassagency_en) October 11, 2023
Two other people, a man and a woman, were also injured in the incident and had been brought to hospital.
The man was in a coma and had suffered burns to his respiratory tract and upper and lower body, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. The injured woman had a concussion and a fractured leg, TASS reported, adding that doctors had assessed the woman’s condition as “serious”.
Russia’s defence ministry said earlier on Thursday that an attempted Ukrainian drone attack in the Belgorod region had been “thwarted” at around 11:30pm local time (20:30 GMT) on Wednesday. The ministry made no mention of casualties.
Russia has come under regular attack by Ukrainian drones in recent months, mainly in border regions but also in the capital Moscow.
According to the regional governor, Ukrainian shelling killed two civilians in the Belgorod region on Tuesday.
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‘External’ source suspected as Finland, Estonia gas, telecom link damaged
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Damage to undersea gas and telecommunications links comes just over a year after sabotage to Nord Stream gas pipeline.
Damage to an undersea gas pipeline and telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Estonia appears to have been caused by “external activity”, Finnish and Estonian officials said.
The Finnish government on Tuesday reported damage to a gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable with Estonia following an unusual drop in pressure on Sunday in the Balticconnector gas pipeline, which led to its shutdown.
Speaking at a news conference, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stopped short of calling the pipeline damage an act of sabotage but said it could not have been caused by regular operations.
“According to a preliminary assessment, the observed damage could not have occurred as a result of normal use of the pipe or pressure fluctuations. It is likely that the damage is the result of external activity,” Orpo said.
Finnish and Estonian authorities are working closely together to investigate the damage to 🇫🇮🇪🇪 undersea infrastructure. Finland is well prepared, our readiness is high and the situation is stable. Our security of supply is not threatened. #BalticConnector
— Petteri Orpo (@PetteriOrpo) October 10, 2023
Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation was leading an inquiry into the leak, Orpo said.
Finnish telecoms operator Elisa also confirmed on Tuesday that it suffered a break in a data cable connecting Finland and Estonia over the weekend.
Asked by a reporter whether Finland’s government suspected Russian involvement in the latest incident, Orpo said he did not want to speculate on potential perpetrators before authorities completed the investigation in Finland.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said that Estonia and Finland had informed their allies in NATO and the European Union regarding the incidents and she was in contact with the Finnish leader on the “next steps” to be taken.
“Both Estonia and Finland are taking these incidents very seriously and are doing everything possible to determine the circumstances,” Kallas said in a statement.
I convened ministers and relevant authorities to discuss incidents regarding #Balticconnector and an undersea communication cable.
While there’s no threat to our security of supply, both Estonia and Finland are taking the incidents very seriously.
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) October 10, 2023
The damaged cable and pipeline “are in very different locations, although the timing [of the incidents] is quite close”, Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur told a press briefing.
Pevkur said that Estonian authorities received photos confirming that the damage to the Balticconnector was “mechanical” and “human-made”.
“This damage must have been caused by some force that was not created by … a diver or a small underwater robot; the damage is more massive,” Pevkur said, adding that seismologists have previously stated there was no explosion at the incident site.
Heidi Soosalu, a seismologist at the Estonian Geological Service, told the Estonian public broadcaster ERR on Tuesday that neither Estonian nor Finnish seismic stations registered anything resembling explosions during the time period the Balticconnector registered a loss of pressure.
The incident comes just over a year after the Nord Stream gas pipelines running between Germany and Russia in the Baltic Sea were damaged by explosions believed to be sabotage. That case remains unsolved.
Estonia’s Navy told The Associated Press news agency they were conducting an investigation on the damaged gas pipeline together with the Finnish military in the Gulf of Finland.
The 77km-long (48 miles) Balticconnector pipeline runs across the Gulf of Finland from the Finnish city of Inkoo to the Estonian port of Paldiski. The 300 million euro ($318m) pipeline, largely financed by the EU, started commercial operations at the beginning of 2020.
The Balticconnector has been the only gas import channel to Finland, apart from LNG, since Russian imports were halted in May 2022, following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia stopped supplying gas to Finland after it refused to pay Moscow in rubles, a condition imposed on “unfriendly countries” – including EU member states – as a way to sidestep Western financial sanctions against Russia’s central bank.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she had spoken with Finnish premier Orpo and Estonia’s Kallas regarding damage to the gas pipeline and telecoms cable.
“Only by working together can we counter those seeking to undermine our security, and ensure that our critical infrastructure remains robust and reliable in the face of evolving threats,” von der Leyen said in a statement.
I held calls with Prime Ministers @kajakallas and @PetteriOrpo on the on-going investigations into the damage on the gas pipeline and data cable connecting Estonia and Finland.
I strongly condemn any act of destruction of critical infrastructure.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) October 10, 2023
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NATO forced to do the splits over support for both Israel and Ukraine
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BRUSSELS — Defense ministers flying into the Belgian capital for a NATO meeting starting Wednesday were expecting to spend their time backing Ukraine — instead, they find their intel briefings full of a region mostly forgotten in the past two years: the Middle East.
From the White House’s new military support for Israel to emergency meetings across European capitals, to a fumbled EU response to the crisis, NATO allies are grappling with a renewed sense of urgency over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hamas’ surprise attacks on Israel over the weekend has led to the Israeli government’s vow of total retaliation in the Gaza Strip, with a record number of 300,000 reservists already drafted within 48 hours.
The timing is an inconvenience for the Ukrainians, who aim to galvanize further support from NATO countries in what will be the first defense ministers’ meeting following a NATO leaders’ summit in July that saw beefed-up pledges for Ukraine’s security and military support.
Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s committee on foreign policy, acknowledged the “fears” among his compatriots over whether the West can stay focused on Russia’s invasion while also dealing with the ongoing Israeli-Hamas situation.
“I can only speak for myself. Yes, there are such fears,” Merezhko told POLITICO. “But, at the same time, I think that in the end it will not be a problem, because the USA is such a powerful country in economic and military terms.”
While Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is scheduled to get hours of attention, Israel is also expected to be discussed — at least on the sidelines.
“I would be surprised if the situation in the Middle East isn’t mentioned at the meeting,” said a NATO diplomat granted anonymity to speak freely. A second diplomat said they expected strong interest in what U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had to say.
The interest isn’t unusual because Israel has a longtime partnership with NATO, another diplomat pointed out, so it would only be “natural” for the alliance to be concerned about its next steps.
Just a week before the Hamas attack, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the chair of the NATO Military Committee, visited Israel to meet with President Isaac Herzog and military officials. Bauer also visited the Gaza border crossing, where he praised the Israeli military’s “unique expertise in underground counterterrorism activity.”
While the line from the White House is that the United States can deal with two regional crises at the same time, domestic skeptics of helping Ukraine are already piling on.
“Israel is facing existential threat. Any funding for Ukraine should be redirected to Israel immediately,” Josh Hawley, a Republican senator allied with former President Donald Trump, said on social media.
Pledges for Kyiv
U.S. officials are trying to dispel Ukrainian concerns, pointing out that the two countries have differing needs because they face very different threats.
“On the question of whether or not U.S. support for Israel could possibly come at the expense of U.S. support for Ukraine, we don’t anticipate any major challenges in that regard,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters on Tuesday. “I suspect the United States will be able to stay focused on our partnership and commitment to Israel’s security, while also meeting our commitments and promise to continue supporting Ukraine as it defends its territory.”
Hamas’ surprise attacks on Israel over the weekend has led to the Israeli government’s vow of total retaliation in the Gaza Strip | Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images “I think allies no doubt will want to talk about what happened in Israel and express their solidarity. We’ve seen all members of the alliance issue their own national statements — really in real time almost as the attack was ongoing. And I suspect that will be part of our conversation,” Smith said.
Ukraine still remains a key focus for this week’s NATO meeting.
It begins on Wednesday with the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a regular gathering of NATO and Ukrainian ministers to discuss what weapons to give Ukraine. It will be followed by the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting, a format that’s already in its fourth edition since it was created in July, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the NATO Summit in Lithuania.
“I anticipate that the emphasis will be mostly on air defense and ammunition although no doubt the Ukrainians will come in with a variety of other requests,” Smith said. “It always is an organic meeting where ministers step forward and offer assistance in real time.”
Shortly before the NATO meeting, Umerov, the Ukrainian defense minister, reached out to his Dutch counterpart, Kajsa Ollongren, on Ukraine’s “urgent needs” for air defense systems, long-range missiles and artillery. The Netherlands has also been leading on the F-16 fighter jet training for Ukraine’s pilots.
That’s a sign that the alliance can juggle both Ukraine and Israel, Ollongren told POLITICO.
“Splits? No. But I think of course there will also be attention and focus on Israel and how the situation is developing over there,” she said. “But I think it’s very important, it’s a good thing that we are meeting tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, to underline that the support for Ukraine is not affected.”
CORRECTION: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of the Dutch defense minister’s name: it is Kajsa Ollongren.
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Veronika Melkozerova, Stuart Lau, Paul McLeary and Laura Kayali
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Zelenskyy arrives in Brussels for surprise visit ahead of NATO meeting
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BRUSSELS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and join a meeting of NATO defense ministers during a surprise visit to Brussels on Wednesday.
In comments to the press Wednesday morning, Zelenskyy, speaking alongside Stoltenberg, said his main message to NATO defense ministers would be on “priorities for Ukraine” for “how to survive during this next winter.”
“We need some support from the leaders. That’s why I’m here today,” Zelenskyy said. “It’s important there are long-distance missiles, or long-distance weapons … The problem: How to get it?”
Some NATO countries have reservations about providing Ukraine with long-range weapons, out of fears they could be used to attack Russian territory. But Zelenskyy reiterated that they are necessary to protect Ukraine’s “very concrete geographic points,” such as energy networks or transit lanes for grain exports.
Stoltenberg said Ukraine could expect more announcements to be made on Wednesday on NATO countries’ commitment to step up support for Kyiv.
“We need today to mobilize more support to Ukraine. And as President Zelenskyy just said, this is about air defense. It’s about artillery. It’s about ammunition,” Stoltenberg said. “And I expect more NATO allies to make further announcements today for more support to Ukraine, because we need to sustain and step up their support.”
That will help Ukraine “to produce, to trade, to function as a normal country,” Stoltenberg said, adding: “That will increase their ability to finance and to provide … ammunition themselves for the war.”
Zelenskyy, who will also meet Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo later on Wednesday, said he would focus on ways for Ukraine to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s efforts to rebuild after President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion. Belgium is estimated to hold almost two-thirds of the €300 billion worth of frozen Russian central bank reserves.
Zelenskyy said there’s no finalized detail yet on a meeting with European Council President Charles Michel, though communications were ongoing and Ukraine, he said, was ready to begin EU membership talks.
Zelenskyy’s trip comes amid his continued efforts to secure modern fighters jets from his Western allies to fight off Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This will be Zelenskyy’s second visit to Brussels since the start of the invasion, after he attended a summit of EU leaders in February in a visit that made headlines — not least because news of the trip leaked several days before it took place.
Prior to the visit to Brussels, the Ukrainian president was in Bucharest on Tuesday, where he met with his Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis to discuss regional security and bilateral ties.
This story is being updated.
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Stuart Lau and Nicolas Camut
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Europe’s power outage: How Israel-Hamas war exposed EU’s irrelevance
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At least Europe no longer has to endure that hackneyed Henry Kissinger quip about whom to call if you want “to call Europe.”
No one’s calling anyway.
Of the myriad geostrategic illusions that have been destroyed in recent days, the most sobering realization for anyone residing on the Continent should be this: No one cares what Europe thinks. Across an array of global flashpoints, from Nagorno-Karabakh to Kosovo to Israel, Europe has been relegated to the role of a well-meaning NGO, whose humanitarian contributions are welcomed, but is otherwise ignored.
The 27-member bloc has always struggled to articulate a coherent foreign policy, given the diverse national interests at play. Even so, it still mattered, mainly due to the size of its market. The EU’s global influence is waning, however, amid the secular decline of its economy and its inability to project military might at a time of growing global instability.
Instead of the “geopolitical” powerhouse Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised when she took office in 2019, the EU has devolved into a pan-Europeanminnow, offering a degree of bemusement to the real players at the top table, while mostly just embarrassing itself amid its cacophony of contradictions.
If that sounds harsh, consider the past 72 hours: In the wake of Hamas’ massacre of hundreds of Israeli civilians over the weekend, European Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi announced on Monday that the bloc would “immediately” suspend €691 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority. A few hours later, Slovenian Commissioner Janez Lenarčič contradicted his Hungarian colleague, insisting the aid “will continue as long as needed.”
The Commission’s press operation followed up with a statement that the EU would conduct an “urgent review” of some aid programs to ensure that funds not be funneled into terrorism, implying such safeguards were not already in place.
As far as the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell was concerned, the outcome of any review of assistance for the Palestinians was a foregone conclusion: “We will have to support more, not less,” he said on Tuesday.
To sum up: Over the course of just 24 hours, the Commission went from announcing it would suspend all aid to the Palestinians to signaling it would increase the flow of funds.
The EU’s response to the events on the ground in Israel was no less confused. Even as Israel was still counting the bodies from the most horrific massacre in the Jewish state’s history, Borrell, a longtime critic of the country who has effectively been declared persona non grata there, resorted to bothsidesing.
Borrell, a Spanish socialist, condemned Hamas’ “barbaric and terrorist attack,” while also chiding Israel for its blockade of Gaza and highlighting the “suffering” of the Palestinians who voted Hamas into power.
The Spaniard’s approach stood in sharp contrast to that of von der Leyen, who unequivocally condemned the attacks (albeit in a series of tweets) and had the Israeli flag projected onto the façade of her office.
Borrell organized an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Oman to discuss the situation in Israel, but Israel’s foreign minister declined to participate, even remotely | AFP via Getty Images Those moves immediately drew protest from other corners of the EU, however, with Clare Daly, a firebrand leftist MEP from Ireland, questioning von der Leyen’s legitimacy and telling her to “shut up.”
By mid-week, ascertaining Europe’s position on the crisis was like throwing darts — blindfolded.
Bloody hands
Compare that with the messaging from Washington.
“In this moment, we must be crystal clear,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a special White House address Tuesday. “We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack.”
Biden noted that he’d called France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom to discuss the crisis. Notably not on the list: any of the EU’s “leaders.”
On Tuesday, Borrell organized an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Oman, where they were already gathering, to discuss the situation in Israel. Israel’s foreign minister, Eli Cohen, declined to participate, even remotely.
That’s not too surprising, considering Europe’s record on Iran, which has supported Hamas for decades and whose leadership celebrated the weekend attacks. Though Iran denies direct involvement, many analysts say Hamas’ carefully planned assault would not have been possible without training and logistical support from Tehran.
“Hamas would not exist if not for Iran’s support,” U.S. Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, said on Wednesday. “And so it is a bit of splitting hairs as to whether they were intimately involved in the planning of these attacks, or simply funded Hamas for decades to give them the ability to plan these attacks. There’s no doubt that Iran has blood on its hands.”
Despite persistent signs of Tehran’s malevolent activities across the region, including the detention of a European diplomat vacationing in Iran, Borrell has repeatedly sought to engage with the country’s hard-line regime in the hope of reigniting the so-called nuclear deal with global powers that then-U.S. President Donald Trump exited in 2018.
Last year, Borrell even traveled to Iran in a bid to restart talks, despite the loud objections of Israel’s then-foreign minister, Yair Lapid.
If nothing else, Borrell is consistent.
“Iran wants to wipe out Israel? Nothing new about that,” he told POLITICO in 2019 when he was still Spanish foreign minister. “You have to live with it.”
European Council President Charles Michel mounted an ambitious diplomatic effort earlier this year amid a resurgence in tensions | Jorge Guererro/AFP via Getty Images Now Europe has to live with the consequences of that misguided policy and its loss of credibility in Israel, the region’s only democracy.
The Charles Michel Show
Another glaring example of Europe’s geopolitical impotence is Nagorno-Karabakh, the disputed, predominantly Armenian, region in Azerbaijan.
The long-simmering conflict there was all but forgotten by most of the world, but not by European Council President Charles Michel, who mounted an ambitious diplomatic effort earlier this year amid a resurgence in tensions.
In July, Michel hosted leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels, the sixth such meeting. He described the discussions as “frank, honest and substantive.” He even invited the leaders to a special summit in October for a “pentalateral meeting” with Germany and France in Granada.
It wasn’t meant to be. By then, Azerbaijan had seized the region, sending more than 100,000 refugees fleeing to Armenia. Europe, in dire need of natural gas from Azerbaijan, was powerless to do anything but watch.
Earlier this month, Michel blamed Russia, traditionally Armenia’s protector in the region, for the fiasco.
“It is clear for everyone to see that Russia has betrayed the Armenian people,” Michel told Euronews.
A similar pattern has played out in Kosovo, where the Europeans have been trying for years to broker a lasting peace between its Albanian and Serbian populations. The main sticking point there is the status of the northern part of Kosovo, bordering Serbia, where Serbs comprise a majority of the roughly 40,000 residents.
Borrell even appointed a “Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and other Western Balkan Regional Issues.”
The incumbent in the post, Miroslav Lajčák, Slovakia’s former foreign minister, hasn’t had much luck. Though Lajčák was awarded the grandiose title more than three years ago, the parties are, if anything, further apart today than ever.
The EU has spent untold millions trying to stabilize the region, funding civil society organizations, schools and even a police force.
When tensions threatened to devolve into all-out combat following an incursion into northern Kosovo by Serbian militiamen last month, however, the EU was forced to resort to its tried-and-true crisis resolution mechanism: Uncle Sam.
”We get criticized for too little leadership in Europe and then for too much,” U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke said in 1998, after Washington dragged its reluctant European allies into an effort to halt the “ethnic cleansing” campaign unleashed by Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milošević in Kosovo.
”The fact is the Europeans are not going to have a common security policy for the foreseeable future,” Holbrooke added. “We have done our best to keep them involved. But you can imagine how far I would have got with Mr. Milošević if I’d said, ‘Excuse me, Mr. President, I’ll be back in 24 hours after I’ve talked to the Europeans.”’
Risky business
One needn’t look further than Ukraine for proof that his point is no less valid today. Though the EU has done what it can, providing tens of billions in financial, humanitarian and military aid, it’s not nearly enough to help Ukraine keep the Russians at bay. If it weren’t for American support, Russian troops would be stationed all along the EU’s eastern flank, from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s plight highlights the divide between Europe’s geostrategic aspirations and reality. Even though Europe didn’t anticipate Russia’s full-scale invasion, it had been talking for years about the need to improve its defense capabilities.
“We must fight for our future ourselves, as Europeans, for our destiny,” then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared in 2017.
And then nothing happened.
The reality is that it will always be easier to lean on Washington than to achieve European consensus around foreign policy and military capabilities.
That’s why Europe’s discussions about security sound more like fantasy football than Risk.
After Biden decided to send a U.S. aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean in response to the Hamas attack this week, Thierry Breton, France’s EU commissioner, said Europe needed to think about building its own aircraft carrier. Even in Brussels, the comment generated little more than comic relief.
Despite all the rhetoric about the necessity for Europe to play a more global role, not even the leaders of the EU’s biggest members, France and Germany, seem to be serious about it.
As Biden hunkered down in the White House Situation Room to discuss the crisis in Israel, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were busy conferring in Hamburg.
After agreeing to redouble their efforts to cut red tape in the EU, they took a harbor cruise with their partners.
The leaders celebrated their successful deliberations on a local wharf with beer and Fischbrötchen, a Hamburg fish sandwich. The sun even came out.
But most important: No one’s phone rang.
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Gen. Mark Milley: The 60 Minutes Interview
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Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 593
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Here is the situation on Monday, October 9, 2023.
Fighting
- Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said that Ukraine was expecting a record number of Russian drone attacks this winter. Ihnat told national television that data Russia had already used a “record’ number of more than 500 Iranian-made Shahed drones in September, compared with about 1,000 over a six-month period during last winter.
- Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson had “another terrible night” as it was targeted in some 59 Russian attacks that left 12 people injured, including a mother and her nine-month-old baby. Several houses and gas pipelines were also damaged.
- Four people including a nine-year-old girl were injured in a rocket attack on Konstantinivka, according to the Donetsk regional Governor Ihor Moroz. Several homes and other buildings were also damaged.
- The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said the situation on the battlefield in the east and south of the country remained difficult, with troops coming under intense artillery and mortar fire in and around the front line in areas including Bakhmut, Kupiansk and Lyman. The General Staff said Ukrainian forces had inflicted casualties and equipment losses on the Russians.
- The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence said Ukraine had “almost certainly liberated at least 125 square kilometres (48 sq miles) of territory” in the Velyka Novosilka area, west of the town of Vuhledar, since Kyiv’s counteroffensive began. It added that Russian troops were likely to retain a defensive posture to guard against future Ukrainian offensives.
Diplomacy and politics
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke on the phone with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and said Ukraine stood with Israel. “I spoke with Netanyahu to affirm Ukraine‘s solidarity with Israel, which suffers from a brazen large-scale attack, and to express condolences for the multiple victims,” Zelenskyy said.
- Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said the outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel would help divert global attention from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and perhaps work in Moscow’s favour.
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Gen. Mark Milley looks back at war in Afghanistan, conflict with former President Trump
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General Mark Milley completed a four-year term as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the nation’s highest ranking military officer, on September 30th. He told us he spent most of his time working to avoid a direct conflict with Russia and China while the country watched him have a very public falling out with former President Trump, the man who picked him for the job.
General Milley’s time serving President Joe Biden had its own challenges, including America’s calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan as well as providing Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of American military equipment.
A few hours before we sat down with the general at the Pentagon, he’d had his final phone call with the commander of Ukraine’s armed forces.
General Mark Milley: The counteroffensive that the Ukrainians are running is still ongoing. The progress, as many, many people have noted, is slow, but it is steady. And they are making progress on a day-to-day basis.
Norah O’Donnell: But expelling 200,000 Russian soldiers–
General Mark Milley: Very difficult.
Norah O’Donnell: No easy task.
General Mark Milley: Very hard, very hard.
Norah O’Donnell: How long is this gonna look like this? A year? Five years?
General Mark Milley: Well, you can’t put a time on it. But it’ll be a considerable length of time. And it’s gonna be long and hard and very bloody.
Russia occupies 41,000 square miles of Ukraine. The frontline extends about the distance from Atlanta to Washington, DC.
In Congress this past week, Republicans ended Kevin McCarthy’s speakership and for now, more aid to Ukraine. According to the White House, of the $113 billion already committed, there’s only enough left to last a few more months.
Norah O’Donnell: With all of the issues facing Americans at home, why is this worth it?
General Mark Milley: If Ukraine loses and Putin wins, I think you would be– certainly increasing if not doubling your defense budget in the years ahead. And you will increase the probability of a great power war in the next 10 to 15 years. I think it would be a very dangerous situation if– if Putin’s allowed to win.
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General Mark Milley: Ukraine-Russia obviously is what drives this meeting today.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs is the commander in chief’s principal military advisor, but commands no troops in battle.
General Mark Milley: I am obligated, regardless of consequences, to give my advice to the president. But no president is obligated to follow that advice.
This past August, General Milley invited us aboard the USS Constitution in Boston Harbor, not far from where he grew up.
General Mark Milley: We’re the only military in the world that swears an oath– not to a king, a queen, a tyrant, a would-be tyrant, or a dictator. We swear an oath to an idea, the idea that is America. And it’s– and it’s embodied in that document, the Constitution, which sets up our form of government.
In 2021, General Milley had counseled President Biden to keep 2,500 troops in and around Kabul. Instead, Mr. Biden ordered a complete withdrawal to end America’s longest war after 10 years. The disaster that followed will be part of both of their legacies.
General Mark Milley: I go through the entire withdrawal from Afghanistan– chapter and verse all the time. That was a strategic failure for the United States. The enemy occupied the capital city of the country that you were supporting. So, to me, that hurts. It hurts a big way. But no matter what pain I feel or anyone else feels– nothing comes even close to the pain of those that were killed.
Norah O’Donnell: To those who served in Afghanistan for two decades and lost family members and friends and wonder, “Was it worth it?”
General Mark Milley: Well, that’s always the question. Right? So, 2,461 killed in action by the enemy in Afghanistan over 20 years. Was it worth it? Lookit, I can’t answer that for other people. This is a tough business that we’re in. This military business. It’s unforgiving. The crucible of combat’s unforgiving. People die. They lose their arms. They lose their legs. It’s an incredibly difficult– life. But is it worth it? Look around you. Lo– ask yourself th– the question. For me, I’ve answered it many times over and that’s why I stay in uniform and that’s why I maintain my oath.
His commitment to that oath would be both tested and questioned by Donald Trump. while their relationship began with kind words…
…after the January 6th insurrection, the two men would not speak again.
Their public estrangement started in the spring of 2020 when protests for racial justice, some violent, spread across the country, including to Washington, DC.
Norah O’Donnell: Perhaps more than any other chairman in the role, you have become ensnarled in politics and, arguably, threats to the Constitution. What have you learned from that?
General Mark Milley: Well, I think it’s important to– to keep your North Star, which is the Constitution. We, the military– are not only apolitical, we are nonpartisan. You can’t pick sides.
Norah O’Donnell: June 1st, 2020. Was that a turning point for you as chairman?
General Mark Milley: I think it was. Yeah. I realized that I stepped into a political minefield and I shouldn’t have.
He’s talking about the day when President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy the U.S. Army to put down the unrest on America’s streets.
On the evening of June 1st, after demonstrators near the White House were removed by force, Chairman Milley, dressed in battle fatigues, joined President Trump and members of his Cabinet in a march across Lafayette Square to St. John’s Church, where Mr. Trump posed for photographs.
Ten days later General Milley apologized in a speech to graduates of the National Defense University.
Milley (during his speech): My presence in that moment and in that environment created a perception of the military involved in domestic politics. As a commissioned uniformed officer, it was a mistake that I have learned from…
Norah O’Donnell: It’s rare for a chairman to apologize publicly.
General Mark Milley: Well, you know, I grew up here in Boston. I’m Irish Catholic and my mother and father taught me that when you make a mistake, you admit it. You go to confession. You say 10 Hail Marys and an Our Father. Everybody makes mistakes. And– and the key is– how you deal with the mistake.
Norah O’Donnell: After you apologized, former President Trump said you choked like a dog.
General Mark Milley: Yeah, I’m not gonna comment on anything the former president has said or not said.
General Milley did tell us he was so disillusioned with the former president’s actions he nearly resigned. Instead, according to former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, he and the general made a pact to protect the military from becoming politicized or misused.
60 Minutes
Norah O’Donnell: It’s also been reported that you spent several days, several drafts of resignation letters.
General Mark Milley: That’s right.
Norah O’Donnell: I was s– very struck by the one that was published in which you said to the president: “It is my deeply held belief that you are ruining the international order, causing significant damage to our country overseas that was fought so hard by the greatest generation in 1945. That generation, has fought against fascism, has fought against Nazism, has fought against extremism. It’s now obvious to me that you don’t understand that world order.” You don’t think Donald Trump understood what World War II was fought over?
General Mark Milley: I don’t know what– president– former President Trump– understood about World War II or– or– or– or anything else. I can tell you that– from 1914– to 1945– 150 million people or th– thereabouts were slaughtered in the conduct of great power war.
And in 1945, the United States took the initiative and drafted up a set of rules– that govern the world to this day– Those rules are under stress internationally, President Putin is a direct frontal assault on those rules. China is trying to revise those rules to their own benefit.
Norah O’Donnell: But that’s one thing to say that China is threatening that world order and Russia is threatening that world order. To say that the commander in chief, Donald Trump was “ruining the international order” and “causing significant damage,” what did you see that caused you to write that?
General Mark Milley: I th– I would say that–
Norah O’Donnell: It’s gotta be more than Walking into Lafayette Square in uniform.
General Mark Milley: There was– a wide variety of initiatives that were ongoing, one of them f– of course, was withdrawing troops out of NATO– those were initiatives that placed at risk– you know, I think, America’s role in the world. Now that is the opposite of– what– my parents and– and– 18 million others wore the uniform for World War II to defeat.
General milley doesn’t just revere the greatest generation. He was raised by it. His father was a Navy medic who served in the Pacific Campaign, including at the Battle of Iwo Jima. His mother joined the Naval Reserve to work as a nurse.
After the war they settled in Winchester, a small town north of Boston.
General Mark Milley: Almost every single– male and female– parent that was here, they’re all World War II veterans of one kind or another.
Norah O’Donnell: The whole block, really, a lot of people had–
General Mark Milley: All– everybody. Yeah, 100%.
General Mark Milley: And interesting, no officers. These were 100% (laughs) enlisted. And– and they had their own opinions of officers, too. And–
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Norah O’Donnell: Including your parents, right?
General Mark Milley: Of c– oh, yeah, yeah.
During high school, he was recruited to play ice hockey at Princeton University and decided to join the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps, or ROTC. After graduating in 1980, he went on to become a paratrooper and serve in Special Forces. He did one combat tour in Iraq and three in Afghanistan.
This past May he returned to Princeton, to commission the graduating ROTC class…and took a particular interest in a few of the young officers, whose language skills are currently in high demand.
Marine cadet: I speak Chinese sir.
General Mark Milley: Chinese is really, really important to us.
Anybody else speak Chinese? Whoa, one, two, three, four, five. If you speak Chinese, if you don’t mind, I’d like to get your names. And we’ll see where life takes you guys.
We, the United States– need to take the challenge, the military challenge of China extraordinarily seriously.
Norah O’Donnell: How concerned are you that military-to-military communications are not happening right now with China?
General Mark Milley: Yeah, I think we need to get that established. We had them for a period of time and then they’ve dropped off. So channels of communication are important in order to deescalate in time of crisis.
General Milley says he held a total of five calls with his Chinese military counterparts during the Trump and Biden administrations. But it was his last two calls during the final months of the Trump presidency that got the attention of the press, Congress, and the former president himself.
Norah O’Donnell: Why did you think it was so important to call your Chinese military counterpart in the aftermath of the January 6th attacks?
General Mark Milley: That’s an example of deescalation. So– there was clear indications– that the Chinese were very concerned about what they were observing– here in the United States.
Norah O’Donnell: Did you see some movement of Chinese military equipment–
General Mark Milley: I won’t go over anything classified. So I won’t discuss exactly what we saw or didn’t see, or what we heard or didn’t hear, I will just say that– there was clear indications that the Chinese were very concerned.
60 Minutes
Norah O’Donnell: President Trump recently said that your “dealings” with China were “so egregious that in times gone by, the punishment would have been death.”
General Mark Milley: That’s right. He said that.
Norah O’Donnell: But for the record, was there anything inappropriate or treasonous about the calls you made to China–
General Mark Milley: Absolutely not. Zero. None. And not only that, they were authorized. They’re coordinated. Congress knows that. We’ve answered these questions– several different times in writing
Norah O’Donnell: Were you giving the Chinese information about thinking of the president of the United States?
General Mark Milley: The specific conversation was– I think in accordance with– the intent of the secretary of defense, which was to make sure the Chinese knew that we were not going to attack them.
Norah O’Donnell: Why did the Chinese think that the U.S. under then-president Trump was going to attack them–
General Mark Milley: The Chinese were concerned about– what– what is commonly referred to in– in– in the English language like an October surprise, wag the dog sort of thing. They were wrong. They were not reading us right. Lookit, President Trump was not going to attack China. And they needed to know that.
China, Russia and the war in Ukraine are now the problem of his successor, Air Force General Charles Q. Brown, Jr.
There are also areas of concern closer to home. Last year, the Army missed its recruiting numbers by 15,000 soldiers, the worst shortfall in decades.
Norah O’Donnell: Confidence in the U.S. military is at its lowest in two decades, do you bear any personal responsibility for that?
General Mark Milley: Absolutely. I think as the leader of the military, the uniformed military, I think that I am part of that for sure. I think that the walk from the White House to the St. John’s Church, I think that– helped create some of that.
I think the withdrawal from Afghanistan– helped create some of that. But I would also say, the United States military is still one of the most respected institutions in the United States by a long shot– by a huge margin. You know, I think we’ve– taken a slip back a little bit–and I think we need to improve on that.
Produced by Keith Sharman. Associate producer, Roxanne Feitel. Broadcast associate, Eliza Costas. Edited by April Wilson.
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