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A senior Ukrainian official says that Russian forces’ “task number one” is to hold the southern front line.
The Russians are digging in and sending more resources in hopes of holding off the Ukrainian forces pushing toward Kherson, said Oleksii Hromov, a top official with the military’s General Staff.
“The enemy plans to fulfill this task with the help of the first wave of the partial mobilization and by increasing the number of their troops on the west bank of the Dnipro River,” he said, referring to a key waterway where fighting has recently taken place on both banks.
Hromov suggested there were now more than 40 Russian battalion tactical groups in the Kherson region. Each group usually comprises some 1,000 personnel.
Why this region is key:
“For Putin’s regime, the south direction — Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv — has strategic meaning from the point of view of preserving the land corridor to Crimea and water supply to the peninsula, as well as creating a future bridgehead for the capture of Mykolaiv and Odesa regions, depriving Ukraine of the status of a maritime state,” Hromov said.
In his own statement, the Russia-backed head of Crimea stressed the region’s importance to Moscow and its appointed leaders in occupied Ukraine.
“Our common position is that the protection of Kherson region will ensure the security of the Republic of Crimea. To that end, we will continue to take all necessary measures, including providing maximum assistance to the troops and law enforcement units on the front lines,” Sergey Aksenov said Thursday.
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17th Tank Brigade in the east.
Ukrainian defense ministry
Amid relentless fighting and heavy losses, the Ukrainian army has struggled to form new tank brigades. But the tank brigades it has formed are fighting hard on the war’s two main fronts—in the east in the Donbas region and in the south around the Russian-occupied port of Kherson.
No unit is busier than the 17th Tank Brigade. It appears the brigade has split its three armored battalions, each equipped with as many as 30 T-64 tanks, between the east and the south. It’s a single brigade with just a few thousand troops, spread out across hundreds of miles of front.
The 17th TB sparked excitement on Russian social media yesterday when one of the brigade’s battalions joined the elite 128th Mountain Brigade for an advance on Beryslav, a city on the Dnipro River 35 miles east of Kherson that’s widely considered the Russian army’s safest way across the Dnipro and out of Kherson Oblast in the event the Ukrainians seem poised to liberate the oblast.
Following an intensive artillery barrage supported by TB-2 drones, the 128th MB attacked toward Beryslav. When the mountain troops suffered casualties, a company from the 17th TB—reportedly, the reserve force for the operation—joined the fight.
It’s unclear how much ground the Ukrainians gained, if they gained any. Photos that appeared online today reportedly depict some of the 17th TB’s victims around Kherson, including a howitzer, two MT-LB armored tractors and a cargo truck.
Those kills aside, Kyiv’s southern counteroffensive, which kicked off in late August just days before a second and parallel counteroffensive in the east, seems to have slowed as the looming winter turns the landscape into cold mud.
Exhaustion might also be a factor. The Ukrainian army has suffered far fewer losses than the Russian army has since Russia widened its war on Ukraine starting in late February. But the Ukrainians never had the same reserves of manpower and equipment that the Russians did.
Even as Kyiv’s foreign allies donate more and more tanks and artillery and Ukrainian troops capture more and more Russian equipment, the Ukrainian army has struggled to form new heavy brigades. The army began the war with five or six tank brigades, each with around a hundred T-64 or T-72 tanks. Today the army still has just five or six tank brigades.
To be fair, an huge influx of heavy equipment has allowed the Ukrainian command to up-armor many of its lighter brigades, adding tanks and fighting vehicles to formations that once traveled by truck or armored tractor. The army might not have more tank brigades, but overall it’s got more tanks.
Still, Ukrainian commanders are extremely judicious with how and where they use their few dedicated tank units. At the same time a battalion of the 17th TB was backing up the 128th MB north of Beryslav, a separate 17th TB battalion was “somewhere in eastern Ukraine” helping to liberate towns from a collapsing Russian army, according to the defense ministry in Kyiv.
Photos that circulated online in recent weeks depict the 17th TB’s eastern battalion in action—as well as one of its prizes, a T-80 tank the Ukrainians captured intact from the Russians. It’s one of around 200 usable tanks the Ukrainian army has seized from its retreating enemy since early September.
Prizes like the T-80 help to keep the Ukrainian army’s heavy formations in fighting shape as the war grinds toward its first full winter. But there aren’t yet enough of them for brand-new tank brigades.
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Washington — The White House said Thursday that the U.S. has evidence that Iranian troops are “directly engaged on the ground” in Crimea supporting Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and civilian population.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters that Iran has sent a “relatively small number” of personnel to Crimea, a part of Ukraine unilaterally annexed by Russia in contravention of international law in 2014, to assist Russian troops in launching Iranian-made drones against Ukraine.
Members of a branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps were dispatched to assist Russian forces on how to use the drones, according to a British government statement.
“The information we have is that the Iranians have put trainers and tech support in Crimea, but it’s the Russians who are doing the piloting,” Kirby said.
He added that the Biden administration was looking at imposing new sanctions on Tehran and would look for ways to make it harder for Tehran to sell such weapons to Russia.
The U.S. first revealed this summer that Russia was purchasing Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles to launch against Ukraine. In a contentious closed-door U.N. Security Council meeting late Wednesday, the U.S., U.K. and France accused Iran of selling drones to Russia in violation of a U.N. Security Council ban against their transfer. Iran and Russia both denied the sale of the munitions.
U.S. officials believe that Iran may have deployed military personnel to assist the Russians in part because of the Russian’s lack of familiarity with the Iran-made drones. Declassified U.S. intelligence findings showed that Russians faced technical problems with the Iranian drones soon after taking delivery of the weapons in August.
“The systems themselves were suffering failures and not performing to the standards that apparently the customers expected,” Kirby said. “So the Iranians decided to move in some trainers and some technical support to help the Russians use them with with better lethality.”
The Biden administration released further details about Iran’s involvement in assisting Russia’s war in Ukraine at a sensitive moment. The administration has levied new sanctions against Iran over the government’s brutal crackdown on antigovernment protests in recent weeks spurred by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in Iranian security custody.
Morality police had detained Amini last month for not properly covering her hair with the Islamic headscarf, known as the hijab, which is mandatory for Iranian women. Amini collapsed at a police station and died three days later.
Her death and the subsequent unrest have come as the administration tries to bring Iran back into compliance with the nuclear deal that was brokered by the Obama administration and scrapped by the Trump administration.
But Kirby said that the administration has little hope for reviving the Iran nuclear deal soon.
“We’re not focused on the on the diplomacy at this point,” Kirby said. “What we are focused on is making sure that we’re holding the regime accountable for the way they’re treating peaceful protesters in their country and supporting those protesters.”
The White House spoke out about Iranian assistance to Russia as Britain on Thursday announced new sanctions on Iranian officials and businesses as the Russians use the drones to bombard civilian infrastructure.
“These cowardly drone strikes are an act of desperation,” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said in a statement. “By enabling these strikes, these individuals and a manufacturer have caused the people of Ukraine untold suffering. We will ensure that they are held to account for their actions.”
Among the individuals hit with asset freezes and travel bans by the British were Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chairman of the armed forces general staff overseeing the army branches supplying Russia with drones; Brigadier General Seyed Hojjatollah Qureishi, a key Iranian negotiator in the deal;. and Brigadier General Saeed Aghajani, the head the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force UAV Command.
Shahed Aviation Industries, the Iranian manufacturer of the drones being used by Russia, was also hit by an asset freeze.
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In a contentious closed-door U.N. Security Council meeting late Wednesday, the U.S., U.K. and France accused Iran of selling drones to Russia in violation of a U.N. Security Council ban against the transfer of drones. Russia has used drones in a series of devastating attacks on Ukrainian cities this past week.
Both Russia and Iran claimed to reporters that Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), or drones, were not sold by Iran to Russia, and not used in conflict.
Nate Evans, spokesperson and communications director for the U.S. Mission to the U.N., called for an “expert briefing” in the Security Council “on recent evidence that Russia illegally procured Iranian UAVs that it is using in its war on Ukraine.”
Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s U.N. ambassador, wrote a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres Tuesday requesting U.N experts visit Ukraine to inspect the recovered UAVs which have been used to attack Ukrainian cities. The attacks have caused about 30% of Ukraine’s power to shut down.
In his letter, Kyslytsya noted that the drones used in the attacks meet the requirements under U.N. Security Council resolution 2231, passed in 2015, which bans the transfer of drones which are capable of traveling more than 300 kilometers.
Ed Ram/Getty Images
“The United States began warning in July that Iran was planning to transfer UAVs to Russia for use in Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, and we now have abundant evidence that these UAVs are being used to strike Ukrainian civilians and critical civilian infrastructure,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement following the meeting.
Russia’s Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy said that the 15-nation Security Council had no authority to send inspectors, an issue that will be taken up on Friday in an open Security Council meeting on Ukraine.
Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran’s U.N. ambassador, denied that Iran transferred drones to Russia for use in the war.
James Kariuki, U.K.’s deputy ambassador to the U.N., tweeted Wednesday that “Iran has obligations not to export these weapons.”
On Wednesday, kamikaze drones launched by Russia struck power plants, and forced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to convene an emergency meeting to avoid what he called a “breakdown of [Ukraine’s] energy system.”
Beginning about a week ago, Russia launched a flurry of attacks using Iranian-made kamikaze drones packed with explosives.
Since the first kamikaze drone was launched last month, Ukraine claims it has shot down 223 of them. U.S. officials estimate Ukraine has a roughly 50% success rate, which would mean Russia has launched nearly 450 drones.
— David Martin contributed to this report.
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Europe is waking up to a troubling reality: It may soon lose its NATO benefactor in Ukraine.
With conservatives poised to make gains in the upcoming U.S. elections, NATO’s most generous donor to Ukraine’s war effort may suddenly seem much more parsimonious in 2023.
The possibility has put the spotlight on the gap between American and European aid.
Already, it’s been a tough sell to get all of Europe’s NATO members to dedicate 2 percent of their economic output to defense spending. Now, they are under increasing pressure from the U.S. to go even further than that. And that comes amid an already tough conversation across Europe about how to refill its own dwindling military stockpiles while simultaneously funding Ukraine’s rebuild.
Still, the mantra among U.S. Republicans — whom polls show are favored to take control of one of two chambers of Congress after the November elections — has been that Europe needs to step up.
“Our allies,” said Tim Burchett, a Tennessee Republican who sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, “need to start addressing the problem in their own backyard before they ask us for any more involvement.”
While European governments have opened their wallets and military stockpiles to Ukraine at record levels, Washington’s military assistance to Kyiv still dwarfs Europe’s efforts. It’s a disparity Republicans are keen to highlight as they argue Russia’s war in Ukraine is a much greater threat to Europe than it is to the U.S.
The result could be a changing tenor out of Washington if Congress falls into conservative control.
“It’s horrible what the Russians are doing,” Burchett added, but said he sees China and drug cartels as “more threatening to the United States of America than what’s going on in Ukraine.”
Since Moscow launched its assault on Ukraine, European capitals have pledged over €200 billion in new defense spending.
NATO allies pledged in 2014 to aim to move towards spending 2 percent of GDP on defense within a decade, and an increasing number of governments are taking this promise seriously. But the Biden administration wants them to go even further.
The 2 percent benchmark is just “what we would expect” from allies, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said earlier this month. “We would encourage countries to go above that 2 percent because we’re gonna have to invest more in expanding industrial bases and making sure that we’re doing the right things to replace” some of what was provided to Ukraine.
Washington’s recently released “National Security Strategy” codified those expectations.
“As we step up our own sizable contributions to NATO capabilities and readiness,” the document says, “we will count on our Allies to continue assuming greater responsibility by increasing their spending, capabilities, and contributions.”
It’s an aspiration that will be hard for many European policymakers, who themselves face economic woes at home. The U.K., for instance, has committed to hitting a 3 percent defense spending target but recently acknowledged the “shape” of its increase could change as recent policy changes roil the economy.
The Biden administration has taken a path of friendly encouragement toward Europe, rather than haranguing its partners.
But Republicans are not as keen to take such a convivial tone. And if they take control of Congress, Republicans will have more of a say over the U.S. pursestrings — and the tone emerging from Washington.
“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy told Punchbowl news earlier this week.
“There’s the things [the Biden administration] is not doing domestically,” he added. “Not doing the border and people begin to weigh that. Ukraine is important, but at the same time it can’t be the only thing they do and it can’t be a blank check.”
Republicans are likely eyeing the polls, which show a slim but growing chunk of Americans saying the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine. The figure has risen from 7 percent in March to 20 percent in September, according to a Pew Research Center poll. And it now stands at 32 percent among Republican-leaning voters.
So while President Joe Biden continues to ask Congress to approve more Ukraine aid packages, observers say there could be more skepticism in the coming months.
“It’s becoming harder because the sense is that we’re doing it all and the Europeans aren’t,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
And while noting that “in some ways, that’s unfair” due to the economic cost of the war to Europe, he said that on the military side aid for Ukraine and spending on defense industrial capacity is now “the new 2 percent.”
In European capitals, policymakers are watching Washington closely.
“For Europeans, the idea that U.S. politics matters — that what happens in the midterm election will have implications for what will be expected of us from [our] U.S. ally — is something that is taken more and more seriously,” said Martin Quencez, a research fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Paris office.
But back in Brussels, some officials insist there’s little reason for worry.
“There is broad, bipartisan support for Ukraine,” said David McAllister, chair of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.
Indeed, while the more Donald Trump-friendly wing of the Republican Party is opposed to continuing aid to Ukraine, more traditional Republicans have actually supported Biden’s aid for Kyiv.
“If there was a Republican majority in congressional committees, I expect an impact on debates about which weapons to supply to Ukraine, for example,” McAllister said in an email. “Ultimately, though, the president maintains considerable control over foreign policy.”
McAllister, a member of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, said Europe is already increasing its defensive investments and aid to Kyiv, pointing to an EU initiative to train Ukrainian soldiers and a recent bump up for an EU fund that reimburses countries for military supplies sent to Ukraine.
Polish MEP Witold Waszczykowski, the Foreign Affairs Committee’s vice chair, also said in an email that he doesn’t expect a Republican-dominated Congress to shift Ukraine policy — while urging Washington to put more pressure on Europe.
“Poland and other Eastern flank countries cannot persuade Europeans enough to support Ukraine,” said Waszczykowski, a member of the conservative ruling Law and Justice party.
The “smell of appeasement and expectations to come back to business as usual with Russia,” the Polish politician said, “dominates in European capitals and European institutions.”
Cristina Gallardo contributed reporting.
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Russia has warned the United Nations against investigating its use of drones in Ukraine, amid accusations the weapons came from Iran and were used in violation of UN arms restrictions on the Middle Eastern country.
The United States, France and the United Kingdom called a closed-door Security Council meeting on the drones after an attack on Kyiv on Monday that killed at least five people, and caused widespread damage to power stations and other civilian infrastructure.
Ukraine says its military has shot down more than 220 Iranian drones, formally known as uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV), in little more than a month and has invited UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to Ukraine to inspect some of the wreckage it has collected.
Speaking after the Security Council meeting on Wednesday, Russia’s Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy insisted the weapons had been made in Russia and condemned “baseless accusations and conspiracy theories”.
He called on Guterres and his staff to “abstain from engaging in any illegitimate investigation. Otherwise, we will have to reassess our collaboration with them, which is hardly in anyone’s interests,” he told reporters.
The US and European Union say they have evidence that Iran supplied Russia with Shahed-136s, low-cost drones that explode on landing. Washington says any arms transfer was in contravention of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 which is part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a now moribund deal to curb Iran’s nuclear activities and prevent the country from developing a nuclear weapon.
Tehran denies supplying the drones to Russia and earlier this week said it was ready for “dialogue and negotiation with Ukraine to clear these allegations” after Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine should break diplomatic ties with Tehran.
On Wednesday, Iran’s UN envoy, Amir Saeid Iravani, rejected the “unfounded and unsubstantiated claims” on the drone transfers and said that Tehran, which has abstained in votes on the war, wanted a “peaceful resolution” of the conflict, which began when Russia sent its troops into Ukraine on February 24.
Iravani said Ukraine’s invitation “lacks any legal foundation” and called on Guterres “to prevent any misuse” of the resolution and UN officials on issues related to the Ukraine war.
“Iran is of the firm belief that none of its arms exports, including UAVs, to any country” violate resolution 2231, he added.
Under the 2015 resolution, a conventional arms embargo on Iran was in place until October 2020.
But Ukraine and its Western allies argue that the resolution still includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies until October 2023, and can encompass the export and purchase of advanced military systems such as drones.
French UN Ambassador Nicolas de Riviere said Guterres has a “clear mandate twice a year to report on all these things and to make technical assessments, so I think the UN secretariat will have to go and will go”.
Guterres reports twice a year to the Security Council — traditionally in June and December — on the implementation of the 2015 resolution. Any assessment of the drones in Ukraine would probably be included in that report.
“As a matter of policy, we are always ready to examine any information and analyse any information brought to us by Member States,” UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Wednesday.
Today I raised in the Security Council the UK’s serious concerns over Iranian drones being used to target civilians in Ukraine by Russia.
The Iranians have denied this but it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
Council members have asked the UN to investigate. 1/2
— Ambassador James Kariuki (@JamesKariuki_UN) October 19, 2022
The EU is expected to approve sanctions over the drones ahead of a summit that starts on Thursday in Brussels.
A list seen by the AFP news agency showed the 27-nation grouping would take action against three senior military officials, including General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, as well as drone maker Shahed Aviation Industries, an aerospace company linked to the country’s Revolutionary Guards.
Nabila Massrali, spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, said the bloc had “gathered our own evidence” and would prepare “a clear, swift and firm EU response”.
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Russia’s latest onslaught inside Ukraine has been led by Moscow’s new weapon — Iranian supplied drones. It could possibly mark the dawn of a new kind of warfare in Ukraine.
On Wednesday, kamikaze drones launched by Russia struck power plants, and forced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to convene an emergency meeting to avoid what he called a “breakdown of [Ukraine’s] energy system.”
Retired U.S. Gen. Frank McKenzie, who was at one point in charge of all U.S. forces in the Middle East, said the 11-foot-by-8-foot drone carries a relatively small 90-pound warhead that is powerful enough to destroy transformer yards.
Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
“If you launch enough of them, the theory is you will be able to overcome air defense, because they fly at low altitudes, and they’re very cheap to produce,” McKenzie told CBS News.
He added that Iran produces thousands of the drones.
Since the first kamikaze drone was launched last month, Ukraine claims it has shot down 223 of them. U.S. officials estimate Ukraine has a roughly 50% success rate, which would mean Russia has launched nearly 450 drones.
A 50% rate means more than 200 have gotten through, even though the Ukrainians use everything from guided missiles to small arms fire to try to bring them down.
“They don’t necessarily fly a straight line,” McKenzie said. “They can do dog legs, different routes to try to avoid where they think you have your own air defenses up that can shoot at them.”
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KYIV, Ukraine — Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down Wednesday on his faltering invasion of Ukraine with a declaration of martial law in four illegally annexed regions and preparations within Russia for draconian new restrictions and crackdowns.
Putin’s drastic efforts to tighten his grip on Ukrainians and Russians follow a series of embarrassing setbacks: stinging battlefield defeats, sabotage and troubles with his troop mobilization.
The martial law order belies the Kremlin’s attempts to portray life in the annexed regions as returning to normal. The reality is that a military administration has replaced civilian leaders in the southern city of Kherson and a mass evacuation from the city is underway as a Ukrainian counteroffensive grinds on.
The battle for Kherson, a city of more than 250,000 people with key industries and a major port, is a pivotal moment for Ukraine and Russia heading into winter, when front lines could largely freeze for months. It’s the largest city Russia has held during the war, which began Feb. 24.
A trickle of evacuations from the city in recent days has become a flood. Local officials said Wednesday that 5,000 had left out of an expected 60,000. Russian state television showed residents crowding on the banks of the Dnieper River, many with small children, to cross by boats to the east — and, from there, deeper into Russian-controlled territory.
In announcing martial law effective Thursday, Putin told his Security Council, “We are working to solve very difficult large-scale tasks to ensure Russia’s security and safe future.”
Putin’s army is under growing pressure from a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has clawed back territory. The Russian leader is also faltering after the sabotage of a strategically important bridge linking Russia with Crimea, assassinations of Kremlin-installed officials in Kherson and mistakes he himself has admitted in his partial troop mobilization.
Putin’s martial law declaration authorized the creation of civil defense forces; the potential imposition of curfews; restrictions on travel and public gatherings; tighter censorship; and broader law enforcement powers in Kherson and the other annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.
In an ominous move, Putin opened the door for restrictive measures to be extended across Russia, too. That may lead to a tougher crackdown on dissent than the current dispersal of antiwar protests and jailing of people making statements or providing information about the fighting that differs from the official line.
The severity of new restrictions inside Russia depends on proximity to Ukraine.
Putin put areas nearest Ukraine on medium alert, including annexed Crimea, Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov. Local leaders are authorized to organize territorial defense, ensure public order and safety, safeguard transportation, communication and energy facilities, and use these resources to help meet the Russian military’s needs.
Leaders in these border areas can also carry out resettlements of residents and restrict freedom of movement. Leaders in other areas have been granted similar powers, depending on their alert level.
In the Kherson region, Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian positions on the west bank of the Dnieper River. By pulling civilians out and fortifying positions in the region’s main city, which backs onto the river, Russian forces appear to be hoping that the wide, deep waters will serve as a natural barrier against the Ukrainian advance.
Russia has said the movement of Ukrainians to Russia or Russian-controlled territory is voluntary, but in many cases, they have no other routes out, and no other choice.
Under martial law, authorities can force evacuations. Ukraine’s national security chief, Oleksiy Danilov, said on Twitter that Putin’s declaration is “preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to the depressed regions of Russia to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory.”
For months, reports have circulated of forced deportations, and an Associated Press investigation found that Russian officials deported thousands of Ukrainian children to be raised as Russian.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said Putin’s decree is illegal, calling it part of his effort “to deprive the inhabitants of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine of even basic human rights.”
Russian authorities played up fears of an attack on Kherson, seemingly to persuade residents to leave. Text messages warned residents to expect shelling, Russian state media reported.
One resident reached by phone described military vehicles leaving the city, Moscow-installed authorities scrambling to load documents onto trucks, and thousands of people lining up for ferries and buses.
“It looks more like a panic rather than an organized evacuation. People are buying the last remaining groceries in grocery shops and are running to the Kherson river port, where thousands of people are already waiting,” the resident, Konstantin, said. The AP is withholding his family name, as he requested, for his safety.
“People are scared by talk of explosions, missiles and a possible blockade of the city,” he added.
Leaflets told evacuees they could take two large suitcases, medicine and food for a few days.
Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, called the evacuation “a propaganda show” and said Russia’s claims that Kyiv’s forces might shell Kherson “a rather primitive tactic, given that the armed forces do not fire at Ukrainian cities.”
Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said the operation could presage intense fighting and “the harshest” tactics from Russia’s new commander for Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin.
“They are prepared to wipe the city from the face of the Earth but not give it back to the Ukrainians,” Zhdanov said in an interview.
In a rare acknowledgement of the pressure that Kyiv’s troops are exerting, Surovikin described the Kherson situation as “very difficult.” Russian bloggers interpreted the comments as a warning of a possible Kremlin pullback. Surovikin claimed that Ukrainian forces were planning to destroy a hydroelectric facility, which local officials said would flood part of Kherson.
Incapable of holding all the territory it has seized and struggling with manpower and equipment losses, Russia has stepped up air bombardments, with a scorched-earth campaign targeting Ukrainian power plants and other key infrastructure. Russia has also increased its use of weaponized Iranian drones to hit apartment buildings and other civilian targets.
Russia launched numerous missiles over Ukraine on Wednesday. Ukrainian authorities said they shot down four cruise missiles and 10 Iranian drones. Energy facilities were hit in the Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
Air raid sirens blared in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, sending many people into metro stations for shelter. Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced the city would start seasonal centralized heating on Thursday at lower temperatures than normal to conserve energy.
A Ukrainian energy official, Oleksandr Kharchenko reported Wednesday that 40% of the country’s electric system had been severely damaged. Authorities warned all residents to cut consumption and said power supply would be reduced Thursday to prevent blackouts. One area where power and water were reported knocked out due to overnight shelling was Enerhodar. The southern city is next to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is one of the war’s most worrisome flashpoints.
Missiles severely damaged an energy facility near Zelenskyy’s hometown, Kryvyi Rih, a city in south-central Ukraine, cutting power to villages, towns and to one city district, the regional governor reported.
———
Karmanau reported from Tallinn, Estonia.
———
Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
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KYIV, Ukraine — Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down Wednesday on his faltering invasion of Ukraine with a declaration of martial law in four illegally annexed regions and preparations within Russia for draconian new restrictions and crackdowns.
Putin’s drastic efforts to tighten his grip on Ukrainians and Russians follow a series of embarrassing setbacks: stinging battlefield defeats, sabotage and troubles with his troop mobilization.
The martial law order belies the Kremlin’s attempts to portray life in the annexed regions as returning to normal. The reality is that a military administration has replaced civilian leaders in the southern city of Kherson and a mass evacuation from the city is underway as a Ukrainian counteroffensive grinds on.
The battle for Kherson, a city of more than 250,000 people with key industries and a major port, is a pivotal moment for Ukraine and Russia heading into winter, when front lines could largely freeze for months. It’s the largest city Russia has held during the war, which began Feb. 24.
A trickle of evacuations from the city in recent days has become a flood. Local officials said Wednesday that 5,000 had left out of an expected 60,000. Russian state television showed residents crowding on the banks of the Dnieper River, many with small children, to cross by boats to the east — and, from there, deeper into Russian-controlled territory.
In announcing martial law effective Thursday, Putin told his Security Council, “We are working to solve very difficult large-scale tasks to ensure Russia’s security and safe future.”
Putin is under growing pressure from a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has clawed back territory, sabotage of a strategically important bridge linking Russia with Crimea, assassinations of Kremlin-installed officials in Kherson and mistakes he himself has admitted in his partial troop mobilization.
Putin’s martial law declaration authorized creation of civil defense forces; the potential imposition of curfews; restrictions on travel and public gatherings; tighter censorship; and broader law enforcement powers in Kherson and the other annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.
In an ominous move, Putin opened the door for restrictive measures to be extended across Russia, too. That may lead to a tougher crackdown on dissent: dispersal of antiwar protests and the jailing of people making statements or providing information about the fighting that differs from the official line.
The severity of new restrictions inside Russia depends on proximity to Ukraine, covering freedom of movement and other security steps.
In the Kherson region, Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian positions on the west bank of the Dnieper River. By pulling civilians out and fortifying positions in the region’s main city, which backs onto the river, Russian forces appear to be hoping that the wide, deep waters will serve as a natural barrier against the Ukrainian advance.
Russia has said the movement of Ukrainians to Russia or Russian-controlled territory is voluntary, but in many cases, they have no other routes out, and no other choice.
Under martial law, authorities can force evacuations. Ukraine’s national security chief, Oleksiy Danilov, said on Twitter that Putin’s declaration is “preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to the depressed regions of Russia to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory.”
For months, reports have circulated of forced deportations, and an Associated Press investigation found that Russian officials deported thousands of Ukrainian children to be raised as Russian.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said Putin’s decree is illegal, calling it part of his effort “to deprive the inhabitants of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine of even basic human rights.”
Russian authorities played up fears of an attack on Kherson, seemingly to persuade residents to leave. Text messages warned residents to expect shelling, Russian state media reported.
One resident reached by phone described military vehicles leaving the city, Moscow-installed authorities scrambling to load documents onto trucks, and thousands of people lining up for ferries and buses.
“It looks more like a panic rather than an organized evacuation. People are buying the last remaining groceries in grocery shops and are running to the Kherson river port, where thousands of people are already waiting,” the resident, Konstantin, said. The AP is withholding his family name, as he requested, for his safety.
“People are scared by talk of explosions, missiles and a possible blockade of the city,” he added.
Leaflets told evacuees they could take two large suitcases, medicine and food for a few days.
Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, called the evacuation “a propaganda show” and said Russia’s claims that Kyiv’s forces might shell Kherson “a rather primitive tactic, given that the armed forces do not fire at Ukrainian cities.”
Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said the operation could presage intense fighting and “the harshest” tactics from Russia’s new commander for Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin.
“They are prepared to wipe the city from the face of the Earth but not give it back to the Ukrainians,” Zhdanov said in an interview.
In a rare acknowledgement of the pressure that Kyiv’s troops are exerting, Surovikin described the Kherson situation as “very difficult.” Russian bloggers interpreted the comments as a warning of a possible Kremlin pullback. Surovikin claimed that Ukrainian forces were planning to destroy a hydroelectric facility, which local officials said would flood part of Kherson.
Incapable of holding all the territory it has seized and struggling with manpower and equipment losses, Russia has stepped up air bombardments, with a scorched-earth campaign targeting Ukrainian power plants and other key infrastructure. Russia has also increased its use of weaponized Iranian drones to hit apartment buildings and other civilian targets. In the invasion’s opening stages in February, Russian commanders had seemingly sought to spare some utilities they might need.
Russia launched numerous missiles over Ukraine on Wednesday. Ukrainian authorities said they shot down four cruise missiles and 10 Iranian drones. Energy facilities were hit in the Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
Air raid sirens blared in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, sending many people into metro stations for shelter. Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced the city would start seasonal centralized heating on Thursday at lower temperatures than normal to conserve energy.
A Ukrainian energy official, Oleksandr Kharchenko reported Wednesday that 40% of the country’s electric power system had been severely damaged. One area where power and water were reported knocked out due to overnight shelling was Enerhodar. The southern city is next to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is one of the war’s most worrisome flashpoints.
Missiles severely damaged an energy facility near Zelenskyy’s hometown, Kryvyi Rih, a city in south-central Ukraine, cutting power to villages, towns and to one city district, the regional governor reported.
In Chernihiv city, Iranian drones left three people wounded, said Regional Gov. Viacheslav Chaus.
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Karmanau reported from Tallinn, Estonia.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
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The Russian-installed leaders in Ukraine’s Kherson region on Wednesday began massively ramping up the relocation of up to 60,000 people amid warnings over Russia’s ability to withstand a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of generating “hysteria” to compel people to leave. Residents in the city of Kherson began to receive text messages on Wednesday morning from the pro-Russian administration.
“Dear residents,” it read. “Evacuate immediately. There will be shelling of residential areas by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There will be buses from 7:00, from Rechport [River port] to the Left Bank.”
Meanwhile on Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he had signed a law introducing martial law in Kherson and three other Ukrainian regions the Kremlin claims to have annexed, in violation of international law. The other regions are Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.
In his first outing on Russian state television as the Kremlin’s new commander for Ukraine, General Sergey Surovikin said Tuesday evening that the situation in Kherson was “far from simple” and “very difficult.”
“Our further plans and actions towards the city of Kherson will depend on the military and tactical situation on the ground,” he said.
Ukrainian forces have been advancing through several parts of the Kherson region in recent weeks, capturing villages and farmland along the western bank of the Dnipro River, also known as the right bank.
Russia’s ability to resupply its troops in Kherson has been severely hampered by frequent Ukrainian missile and artillery strikes on Russian-controlled bridges crossing the Dnipro. The explosion earlier this month that badly damaged the Kerch bridge, which connects Russia to Crimea, further bottlenecked Russia’s logistics.
Last week the head of the Russian-backed administration appealed to the Kremlin to help with the evacuation of civilians near the frontline.
On Tuesday, the rhetoric hit a new level. Just past 11 p.m. local time (4 p.m. ET), Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Russian-backed administration, posted a video to his Telegram channel.
“The Ukrainian Nazis pushed by the West will start their attack on Kherson very soon,” he said. “We are strongly advising to leave the right bank area.”
This morning, just after 8 a.m., he followed that up with: “Cross as quickly as possible onto the left bank [the eastern side] of river Dnipro.” Hours later, the Russian-backed administration went so far as to close off all entry to the right bank of the Dnipro River for seven days.
Ukrainian officials believe that fewer than half of Kherson’s civilian population are left in the city – around 130,000 people.
Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-backed leader in the Kherson region, told Russian state television on Tuesday evening that they planned to move 50,000 to 60,000 people from the right to the left bank of the Dnipro River.
The Ukrainian leaders-in-exile of the Kherson region accuse the Russia leaders of drumming up “hysteria” to intimidate the population and enact “voluntary deportations” to Russia, where they’ve been promised help with housing.
“On the one hand, we understand that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will liberate Kherson and the region – accordingly, there may be active hostilities, and this is a risk for the local population,” Yurii Sobolevskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s regional council for Kherson, told CNN on Wednesday.
“On the other hand, there are no guarantees that the evacuated people will be safe there and far from the front line. Now people make their own decisions – to leave or stay. It is difficult to say what decision they will make.”
The “massive deportation of civilians” by Russia could, along with other alleged abuses, constitute crimes against humanity, according to a July report by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). In September, the UN Security Council also said Russia’s forcible deportation of 2.5 million people from Ukraine – including 38,000 children – constitutes human rights violations.
Ukraine denounced Russia’s “filtration” scheme at a United Nations Security Council meeting last week. Deputy Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN Khrystyna Hayovyshyn said Ukrainians forced to head to Russia or Russian-controlled territory are being killed and tortured.
Hayovyshyn told the Security Council that thousands of Ukrainian citizens are being forcefully deported to “isolated and depressed regions of Siberia and the far east.
Ukrainian citizens are terrorized, under the pretense of a search for “dangerous” people by Russian authorities, Hayovyshyn said. Those who have different political views or are affiliated with the Ukrainian government or media disappear into a gray area. Children are ripped from the arms of their parents, the Ukraine representative declared.
In the heady early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when confusion reigned, the capture of the southern city of Kherson was a key strategic and propaganda victory for the Kremlin.
On just the seventh day of the war, Kherson’s mayor announced that Russian soldiers had entered his office, and the city had fallen.
Geographically, it was vital: Kherson lies on the mouth of Ukraine’s central artery, the Dnipro River, and not far from the canal that supplies water to Crimea. Ukraine’s government had shut that canal down in 2014, when Russia illegally annexed the peninsula.
It was the first major city Russia captured, and the only regional capital taken since February. (In addition to Crimea, Russian-backed forces have controlled Donetsk and Luhansk cities since 2014.) It’s the second-biggest population center that Russia has captured after Mariupol.
Seventh months later, the Kremlin considers the Kherson region to be part of Russia, after claiming to annex it last month. And yet, everyone from Russia’s designated leaders in the region to the new commander of its entire Ukrainian war effort are sounding the alarm on their ability to withstand a Ukrainian offensive in the region.
Russia’s puppet administration has promised that there is no plan to abandon Kherson city, and that once the military “solve all of the tasks,” normal life will return.
In his remarks on Russian television, Surovikin, the Russian commander, repeated what has become a bit of a trope in Russian circles: That the Ukrainian military was preparing to shell Kherson’s city center, of even to strike the dam that’s part of a hydroelectric plant at Nova Kakhovka, and unleash floodwaters on low-lying areas downstream.
Ukrainian officials have dismissed that idea as Russian propaganda. It will not be easy for Ukraine to retake Kherson city if Russia seriously contests it, and the Ukrainian military will be reluctant to attack an urban center where tens of thousands of civilians could remain.
But Ukraine’s military brass remain bullish over the Kherson offensive.
“We will make significant progress by the end of the year,” the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, said on Tuesday.
“These will be significant victories. You will see it soon.”
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• Iran has sent military trainers to Crimea to train Russian forces to use drones
• Analysis: Russia says it has expanded its nuclear sphere. What to make of its latest threats
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Russia launched fresh strikes across Ukraine on Tuesday morning, continuing a days-long aerial assault under President Vladimir Putin’s new war commander that has taken a serious toll on Ukrainian power infrastructure and civilians. Moscow insists it is only targeting power installations, and it has indeed hammered Ukraine’s energy and water supplies, including a power plant in Kyiv that was hit Tuesday.
With power cuts already spreading as Ukraine’s harsh winter approaches — and with civilians being killed daily by the ongoing barrage of “suicide drones” that Russia is launching along with its missiles — Kyiv’s mayor and Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy have labeled Russia a “terrorist state.”
Handout/State Emergency Service of Ukraine
A swarm of the Iranian-made, explosives-packed drones slammed into buildings in Kyiv on Monday killing four people, including Viktoria Zamchenko, who was reportedly six months pregnant with her first child.
Ukraine claims Russia has ordered nearly 2,500 suicide drones from Iran, reportedly at a cost of around $20,000 each, a fraction of the price of a guided missile.
Iran has denied that it is providing Russia with weapons for the war, but the Reuters news agency reported Tuesday, citing unnamed Iranian sources, that Tehran had actually agreed to provide Russia with even more weapons in a new deal arranged during an early-October visit by Iranian security officials to Moscow. The deal, which CBS News could not independently verify, apparently saw Iran promise not only drones, but surface-to-surface missiles.
Ukraine’s foreign minister said Tuesday that he was submitting a proposal to Zelenskyy to sever the country’s diplomatic ties with Tehran completely over its provision of drones to Russia. Last week, a top British intelligence official said the Russian military’s “supplies and munitions are running out.”
“The world must stop this terror,” Zelenskyy said Monday night, renewing his months-long plea for Western nations to provide Ukraine with more, and more advanced, air defense systems.
Many of Ukraine’s cities, including Kyiv, had been relatively calm for months. But since General Sergei Surovikin, or “General Armageddon” as he’s also known, took over as commander of Putin’s struggling war effort, Moscow has increasingly relied on the small, relatively cheap suicide drones, and they could have a significant impact on the course of the war.
Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
Russia’s goal, according to Ukrainian officials, appears to be to destroy enough infrastructure and civilian lives that support for the war wanes inside Ukraine, and among its international partners. While there’s been no indication that the Russian tactic is working to that end, Ukrainian officials have started warning people to brace for a difficult winter.
“The situation is critical now across the country,” Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of President Zelenksyy’s office said on television. “The whole country needs to prepare for electricity, water and heating outages.”
Zelenskyy said in a tweet that “30% of Ukraine’s power stations” had been destroyed over the last week alone, leading to “massive blackouts across the country.”
The power cuts were already hitting parts of the capital, the Zhytomyr region west of Kyiv, and Dnipro in the south.
“The terrorist state will not change anything for itself with such actions,” Zelenksyy said in another message posted to the Telegram messaging app. “It will only confirm its destructive and murderous essence, for which it will certainly be held to account.”
In the meantime, Ukrainian civilians continue to pay the price.
“They [Russians] probably get pleasure from this,” the owner of a flower shop in the southern city of Mykolaiv told the Reuters news agency after a Russian missile slammed into a nearby apartment building, killing one person and damaging his store. “They get pleasure from us feeling bad. I think they want us to bomb and shell [their] city buildings. But we won’t do that, to be different from them.”
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The Kremlin said it has not set an end date for President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization order, despite as many as 40 regions having fulfilled their military draft quota as of Tuesday.
The Russian Ministry of Defense sets the quota for each region which needs to be completed, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
However, the fulfilment of the quota in these regions does not mean that mobilization is over. It can only end with a presidential decree.
“There have been no such decisions on the end of mobilization,” Peskov said when asked about it, adding that “there can be no question” on surpassing the targeted figure of 300,000 soldiers “under current decree.”
On Monday, Moscow’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced the fulfilment of the quota in the Russian capital.
But Russian human rights group Agora said that Sobyanin’s statement does not mean partial mobilization is over.
“As long as the partial mobilization is not completed by the official who announced it, its legality is preserved. That is, you need to wait for the presidential decree,” Russian human rights lawyer Pavel Chikov said on Telegram.
Putin has defended his partial mobilization of Russians that began in September, telling reporters on Friday that it is expected to end in two weeks. Some 222,000 troops out of the planned 300,000 Russians have been drafted so far, he added.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is using billionaire Elon Musk to broadcast terms for ending his war in Ukraine, former top National Security Council analyst Fiona Hill said.
Hill told Politico in an interview published Monday that Putin has chosen Musk in a well-worn playbook of using prominent businesspeople to communicate his demands to a wider audience.
“Putin plays the egos of big men, gives them a sense that they can play a role. But in reality, they’re just direct transmitters of messages from Vladimir Putin,” Hill told Politico.
Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, earlier this month shared suggestions for ending the war with his followers on Twitter, earning the condemnation of Ukrainian officials. His proposal included redoing “elections” in the four Ukraine regions Putin annexed “under U.N. supervision,” referring to the sham referendums the Kremlin organized in these regions. Musk also suggested formally declaring Crimea, which Putin illegally annexed in 2014, part of Russia.
Hill, currently a senior foreign policy fellow on the United States and Europe at the Washington-based Brookings think tank, said Musk made similar suggestions during “The Weekend” festival in Aspen, Colorado, last month.
Hill also pointed to Musk’s proposal to guarantee the water supply of Crimea, which Ukrainian officials curtailed after the annexation by blocking water from Ukraine’s Dnipro River to the peninsula, as a sign of his communications with the Russian leader.
“It’s unlikely Elon Musk knows about this himself,” Hill said. “The reference to water is so specific that this clearly is a message from Putin.”
Ian Bremmer, founder of the prominent political risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group, reported Musk told him Putin was “prepared to negotiate” with Ukraine if some of his terms were met.
Musk has denied he spoke to Putin. Bremmer is sticking with his account.
Hill said by using Musk as a messenger, Putin “is basically short-circuiting the diplomatic process” to advance his goals.
“He wants to lay out his terms and see how many people are going to pick them up,” Hill said. “All of this is an effort to get Americans to take themselves out of the war and hand over Ukraine and Ukrainian territory to Russia.”
Hill said Putin’s selection of Musk as a messenger is “fascinating” in part because the world’s richest person has been supporting Ukraine through SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service, which has been used by the Ukrainian military.
Musk had threatened to pull the plug on Starlink unless the Pentagon helped with costs, according to CNN. Musk has since backtracked on the demand, tweeting that SpaceX would continue funding Starlink.
Hill noted that Putin wants to reshape the international order and that his invasion of Ukraine is having a destabilizing effect by putting global energy and food security at risk. The Ukraine conflict already means “our world is not going to be the same as it was before,” she said.
“It’s ironic that Elon Musk, the man who has been talking about getting us to Mars, should be Putin’s messenger for the war in Ukraine, when we’re having a really hard time getting our act together on this planet,” Hill said.
Hill testified against then-President Donald Trump during his first impeachment, after working at the National Security Council as a senior European and Russian affairs expert. She also served in the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush.
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