The consequences for Russia if it uses a nuclear weapon in its war on Ukraine have been conveyed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday.
“We’ve also communicated directly and very clearly to the Russians, President Putin about the consequences,” the top US diplomat said at a Bloomberg event. Blinken did not indicate how it was communicated to Putin or by whom, and principal deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel later suggested that US officials had not communicated directly with him.
“You have seen members of this administration dialogue directly with their counterparts in Russia and express these concerns and the potential for dire consequences,” which “no doubt have likely made its way to President Putin,” Patel said at a State Department briefing.
Biden administration officials have said that Moscow has been warned at the highest levels of the consequences for use of nuclear weapon in the war, but Blinken’s remark is the first explicit mention that the message has been communicated to Putin himself.
Blinken denounced Russia’s latest claim that Ukraine is considering the use of a “dirty bomb” as “another fabrication and something that is also the height of irresponsibility coming from a nuclear power.”
He said the United States has communicated directly with the Russians “about trying to use this false allegation as a pretext for any kind of escalation.”
“The reason this particular allegation gives us some concern is because Russia has a track record of projecting, which is to say, accusing others of doing something that they themselves have done or are thinking about doing,” Blinken said.
Blinken reiterated that the US is tracking the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling “very carefully,” but hasn’t “seen any reason to change our nuclear posture.”
Despite Putin’s rhetoric, Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Andrey Kelin told CNN on Wednesday that Russia will not use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine.
“Russia is not going to use nukes. It is out of the question,” Kelin told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.
However, actions taken by Moscow in recent weeks – the “dirty bomb” allegations, attacks on civilian infrastructure, looming defeats on the battlefield, and its annual military exercise – have increased concerns, a senior administration official said.
This official told CNN that the potential collapse of parts of Russia’s military in Ukraine could be the factor that could cause Putin to turn to nuclear weapon use. As such, the US is keeping a close eye on the developments in the Kherson region, where it’s not easy for Russian soldiers to retreat.
Russia informed the US of its annual GROM exercise, which includes its strategic nuclear forces, the Pentagon said. The Kremlin said in a statement Wednesday that Putin was leading military training drills involving practice launches of ballistic and cruise missiles.
The official said it may “sounds alarmist” to cite concerns about planned exercises but noted that they cannot be viewed in a silo: they do allow Russians to practice doing things like getting missiles into place and flying bombers to sea at a time when they are being pushed into a corner on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Despite these increased concerns, US officials have not seen evidence of Russian actions that would indicate Moscow is preparing to use nuclear weapons.
“We’ve seen no need to change our own nuclear posture. We don’t have any indication that Moscow is preparing to use nuclear weapons. But this type of rhetoric is concerning for many reasons,” State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said on Tuesday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday supervised a drill by Moscow’s strategic nuclear forces, which included practice launches of ballistic and cruise missiles. During the exercise, intercontinental ballistic missiles were launched to test the level of preparedness of the military and the skills of operational personnel in organising troops, the Kremlin said.
Tupolev Tu-95MS long-range aircraft were also employed in the missions, carrying out launches of air-based cruise missiles. “The tasks set out during the drill of the Strategic Deterrence Forces were performed in full. All missiles reached their targets, confirming the rated characteristics,” the statement said.
Russia’s nuclear forces drill comes amid claims by Moscow that Ukraine may use ‘dirty bomb’ in its territory. This has triggered alarm with many fearing that Russia may use this as a pretext to launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine.
Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu earlier this week dialled his counterparts in the UK and claimed that he was concerned that Ukraine may go for another provocation by using a ‘dirty bomb’. He also made this claim to India’s defence minister Rajnath Singh on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden was asked whether this was a false flag operation by Russia to escalate tension in Ukraine. Biden said he was not sure as yet but if Moscow uses a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, it would be making an incredibly serious mistake. “Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake for it to use a tactical nuclear weapon,” he said.
In a telephonic conversation with Rajnath Singh, Russia’s Defence Minister Shoigu raised concerns about possible provocations by Ukraine through the use of ‘dirty bomb’. Singh said the nuclear option should not be resorted to by any side as the prospect of the usage of nuclear or radiological weapons goes against the basic tenets of humanity.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing his best to achieve two immediate objectives. The goal of the West must be to stop him.
First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.
Second and simultaneously, Putin is playing desperately for time – hoping the political clock and the onset of winter in Europe will sap the will and energies of the Western powers that have all but eviscerated his military-industrial machine and destroyed the armed might of Russia.
Both sides – Russia and Ukraine with its western backers – are doing their best to turn the screws ahead of a winter which could ultimately decide who will win the most titanic clashes of forces in Europe since the Second World War. It’s worth a deep look at what’s in play right now.
Europe’s energy concerns
First up, there’s the West and its ability to keep supplying the Ukrainian war machine that has proven so effective in this David v. Goliath battle.
This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.
In the early hours of Friday in Brussels, European Union powers agreed a roadmap to control energy prices that have been surging on the heels of embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies at a whim.
These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.
While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.
Still, divisions remain, with Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, skeptical of any price caps. Now energy ministers must work out details with a Germany concerned such caps would encourage higher consumption – a further burden on restricted supplies.
Putin’s useful friends in Europe
These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.
Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.
And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.
Silvio Berlusconi, himself a four-time prime minister of Italy, was recorded at a gathering of his party loyalists, describing with glee the 20 bottles of vodka Putin sent to him together with “a very sweet letter” on his 86th birthday.
Berlusconi, in a secretly recorded audio tape, said he’d returned Putin’s gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine, adding that “I knew him as a peaceful and sensible person,” in the LaPresse audio clip.
The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”
At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.
The limits of America’s ‘blank check’
Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it.”
Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.
Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to renew America’s support.
Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.
In short, there is every incentive for Putin to prolong the conflict as long as possible to allow many of these forces in the West to kick in. A long, cold winter in Europe, persistent inflation and higher interest rates leading to a recession on both sides of the Atlantic could mean irresistible pressure on already skeptical leaders to dial back on financial and military support.
This support in terms of arms, materiel and now training for Ukrainian forces have been the underpinnings of their remarkable battlefield successes against a weakening, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military.
At the same time, the West is turning up the pressure on Russia. Last Thursday, the State Department released a detailed report on the impact of sanctions and export controls strangling the Russian military-industrial complex.
Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.
A day before this report, the US announced seizure of all property of a top Russian procurement agent Yury Orekhov and his agencies “responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russian end-users…including advanced semiconductors and microprocessors.”
The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.
All these actions point to an increasing desperation by Russia to access vitally-needed components for production of high-tech weaponry stalled by western sanctions and embargos that have begun to strangle the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex.
Where that leaves Russia
This pressure from the West may finally be producing real results. Putin’s announced martial law in Ukrainian territories Russia now only partly controls, attacks on civilian targets deep in Ukraine’s interior, and a new, hardline commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Shurokin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by colleagues, all suggest a growing frustration bordering on fear that the Russian people may begin noticing what has long been blindingly obvious: Putin is losing.
This is the very moment when it is so essential that Ukraine and their western supporters push on with tenacity.
Shurokin appeared on Moscow television last week to suggest the Kremlin’s new objective – that actually dates back decades – is to force Ukraine into Russia’s orbit and keep it from joining the EU and especially NATO. Shurokin said: “We just want one thing, for Ukraine to be independent of the West and NATO and be friendly to the Russian state.”
Still, there remain hardliners like Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s puppet leader in Donetsk, who voiced his real intention toward Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”
This should be the real fear of any in the West still prepared to waffle over 100% support of Ukraine and its people.
FRANKFURT, Germany — Natural gas and electricity prices in Europe have plunged from summer peaks thanks to mild weather and a monthslong scramble to fill gas storage ahead of winter and replace Russian supplies during the war in Ukraine. It’s a welcome respite after Russia slashed natural gas flows, triggering an energy crisis that has fueled record inflation and a looming recession.
Yet experts warn it’s too soon to exhale, even as European governments roll out relief packages for people struggling with high utility bills and work on longer-term ways to contain volatile gas and electricity prices that have shrunk household budgets and forced some businesses to shut down.
Uncertainties include not only the weather but how responsive people will be to appeals to turn down their heating and how much demand there will be from Asian economies for scarce energy supplies. And the war a few hours east is a cauldron of possible unpleasant surprises that could cut energy supplies needed for electricity, heating and factory work and send prices sharply higher.
Persistent unknowns are leaving energy-intensive businesses jittery. They are appealing to governments to help them and their customers weather the energy storm so that disruptions in supplies of everything from glass to plastics to clean hospital sheets do not cascade through the economy.
“We must remember that we are still in a tense situation — an economic war between the European Union and Russia in which Russia has weaponized energy supplies,” said Agata Loskot-Strachota, an energy policy expert at the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, Poland.
The good news is natural gas prices on Europe’s TTF benchmark fell on Monday below 100 euros (dollars) per megawatt-hour for the first time since June, a 70% drop from late August highs of nearly 350 euros per megawatt-hour. Electricity prices also fell.
While analysts say lower gas prices are allowing European fertilizer producers to restart operations, there’s no sense of relief for business owners like Sven Paar. His commercial laundry in the German town of Wallduern will use around 30,000 euros worth of natural gas this year to run 12 heavy-duty machines that can wash eight tons of hospital and hotel bedsheets and restaurant tablecloths each day.
His local utility says the bill is rising to 165,000 euros next year. On top of that, Paar says he’s unsettled by a lack of clarity from the German government on whether laundries like his would be considered essential to the economy and spared cutbacks in case of state-imposed rationing. Reports that the utility regulator is working on sorting out the question aren’t enough.
“The problem is, everyone has heard something, and just hearing something doesn’t bring me any planning security,” he said. A letter he sent to the regulator went unanswered.
“That’s the problem, you hope every day that you don’t get a call from someone that says, ‘Tomorrow you aren’t getting any gas,’” he said.
Germany’s hospital association has taken up the issue on behalf of laundries like his, saying hospitals have mostly outsourced their laundry services and would run out of sheets and surgical drapes within a few days without them.
The German government is working to roll out plans to cap gas prices for hard-hit businesses. The association representing smaller businesses says its understanding is that the government would focus any possible rationing on the 2,500 largest gas users in Germany and mostly spare businesses the size of Paar’s.
Helping ease the possibility of rationing is Europe’s underground storage getting filled to 94%, compared with 77% at this time last year, which energy expert Loskot-Strachota called “quite a success.” A big assist has come from mild weather across Europe, with Warsaw, for example, a relatively balmy 18 degrees Celsius (64 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday.
Germany, once heavily dependent on Russian gas, has filled storage to 97% of capacity, France to 99% and Belgium and Portugal both to 100%. That was achieved by importing record quantities of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which comes by ship from the U.S. and Qatar instead of by pipeline from Russia, and by increasing pipeline supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan.
The scramble to line up more LNG has led to a backup of tankers off the coast of Spain, a major processor, as orders collide with reduced demand and limited capacity at the country’s import terminals, which turn boatloads of supercooled LNG back into gas that then flows to homes and businesses.
Spanish gas company Enagas warned last week that it may have to delay or stop tankers from unloading LNG because its storage was almost full. Vessel positioning maps showed at least seven LNG tankers anchored close to Spanish shores Tuesday, though it wasn’t clear how many were waiting to unload.
Despite an abundance of LNG and falling prices, Loskot-Strachota said the energy situation remains volatile. She warns that prices for gas to be delivered in December and the 2023 winter months are higher than prices now.
Russian gas has dwindled to a trickle through pipelines in Ukraine and under the Black Sea to Turkey, but losing even the small amount that remains could roil markets. Moscow has blamed the reductions on technical reasons or a refusal to pay in rubles, while European leaders call it blackmail for supporting Ukraine.
EU governments also have been working on proposals including buying gas as a bloc or limiting price swings to ease the energy crisis, although the measures would largely affect next year’s purchases.
Gas use is down 15% in Europe, but that is mostly from factories simply abandoning production that has become unprofitable.
“This is dangerous — this hurts the economy, this hurts Europe,” Loskot-Strachota said.
Whether households will join businesses in cutting back by lowering thermostats and turning off lights cannot be determined until the cold weather comes in earnest. Russia’s willingness to destroy Ukrainian heating and electrical plans shows that Russia is ready to escalate despite battlefield defeats.
The market also is less flexible because gas reserves will be increasingly used as day-to-day base fuel for heating and generating electricity, rather than as a “swing” fuel during times of peak demand such as cold snaps.
“Every event, every problem, weather problem, Russia problem, becomes a factor which sends prices very very high,” Loskot-Strachota said. “I’m very happy that we’re in a calm situation now, but it is nothing that will last for the whole winter.”
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Raquel Redondo contributed from Madrid.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine
Vilnius, Lithuania — As his daughters dozed off in the back seat, his wife filmed him driving, eyes narrowed, focused on the dark road ahead. Andrei, a doctor, had been plotting their escape from Belarus since 2020, when the Kremlin-backed regime cracked down on a popular uprising, sending the country spiraling deeper into authoritarian rule and engulfing it in a climate of fear.
When Russia launched its assault on Ukraine from Belarus’ southern doorstep, getting out suddenly felt more urgent. His family watched from the windows of their apartment block as helicopters and missiles thundered through the sky. Within days, Andrei — whose name has been changed for his safety — said he found himself being forced to treat Russian soldiers injured in Moscow’s botched assault on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Then, at the end of March, he was jailed on trumped-up corruption charges. After his release in May, and carefully weighing the risks, he decided it was time to leave.
So as not to spark any suspicion, Andrei asked one of their neighbors to sneak the family’s suitcases, filled with legal documents, a few clothes and a photo album, out of their building and stash them in a car. Late one Friday evening in August, after he had finished his shift at the hospital, they met in a parking lot without any security cameras to pick up their bags. Then the family set off.
They stopped on a rural, dirt road and Andrei kissed his wife and girls goodbye. All being well, they would cross through the official border checkpoint and reunite with him in Lithuania, where he planned to claim asylum. Inside one of his daughter’s toys, Andrei had hidden a USB flash drive carrying evidence of what he had witnessed — dozens of X-rays of wounded Russian soldiers. He told them he loved them, turned and walked into the woods.
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko allowed his close ally Russia in February to use the country, which shares a 674-mile border with Ukraine, as a staging ground for its invasion. With his permission, Russian President Vladimir Putin treated Belarus as an extension of Moscow’s territory, sending equipment and around 30,000 troops ostensibly for joint military exercises — the biggest deployment to the former Soviet state since the end of the Cold War. Russia erected temporary camps and hospitals in Belarus’ frozen fields, dispatching military hardware, artillery, helicopters and fighter jets near the border.
Belarusian and Russian forces performing live fire exercises in Belarus, near the Ukrainian border, on February 17, a week before the war began. Belarusian Ministry of Defense/CNN/Pool
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko reaffirms his support for Russia on February 17, saying the two countries have “practically formed a united army.” Belarusian Ministry of Defense/CNN/Pool
When Putin declared his “special military operation” in a pre-dawn televised address on February 24, he sent missiles, paratroopers and a huge armored column of soldiers rolling south from Belarusian soil, setting in motion what was intended to be a lightning strike to decapitate the government in Kyiv. But as Russia’s advance stalled and setbacks mounted, Moscow began to spirit wounded soldiers back across the border to Belarus for treatment in several civilian hospitals, a CNN investigation has revealed. The doctors working there were drafted into a war that they didn’t sign up for, unwittingly enlisted as quasi-combat medics and obliged by their hippocratic oath to provide life-saving care.
Many were forced to sign non-disclosure agreements, told not to speak about what they saw. Some, like Andrei, later fled. From their operating tables, Belarusian medical workers gained perhaps the clearest sense of the scale of casualties suffered by Russia in the early weeks of the war — describing young, shell-shocked soldiers who thought they were being sent for exercises only to find themselves losing a limb in a war they were ill-prepared to fight. While Lukashenko admitted that Belarus was providing medical aid to Russian military personnel, little is known about what happened in the hospitals where they were taken, which were kept under strict surveillance. In interviews with Belarusian doctors, members of the country’s medical diaspora, human rights activists, military analysts and security sources, CNN examined the role Belarus played in treating Russian casualties, while the Kremlin sought to conceal them. Their testimonies and documentation — including medical records — offer insights into the Belarusian government’s complicity in the Ukraine war, as fears mount that the country might be sucked further into the fight.
Exactly how many Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine remains a mystery to all but a few inside the Kremlin. The Russian defense ministry said on March 2 that early casualties amounted to 498 Russian soldiers killed and nearly 1,600 injured in action. But US and NATO estimates around the same time put the number of dead significantly higher: between 3,000 and 10,000. Seven months into the war, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu revised the official tally, saying nearly 6,000 Russian soldiers had died. The Pentagon said in August that it believed the true toll was much more: as many as 80,000 dead or wounded.
Belarus’ stranglehold on information — Lukashenko’s regime has put independent news media under severe pressure, restricted free speech and introduced new legislation extending the death penalty for “attempts to carry out acts of terrorism” — has provided useful cover for Russia in repressing details about its injured and dead. In recent months, a number of people have been arrested for filming Russian military vehicles, according to Viasna, a Belarusian human rights organization whose imprisoned founder was recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
In spite of the repressive environment, hints of Moscow’s troop losses have emerged on social media and local reports. In late February, the Belarusian Hajun project, an activist monitoring group that tracks military activity in the country, started sharing images on Telegram of Russian medical vehicles ferrying fighters across the border from the frontline. Drawing on a network of trusted local sources, the group posted footage of green, Soviet-era “PAZ” buses marked with red crosses and a white letter “V” — a symbol believed to stand for “Vostok”, or east — and armored ambulances in Gomel region.
“We can confirm they (Russians) used Belarusian infrastructure, including medical buildings and field hospitals. They also used morgues … and they used train stations or airbases to transport dead people or injured people, we have photos of that,” Anton Motolko, a Belarusian blogger who fled Minsk in 2020 and founded Belarusian Hajun project, told CNN. Motolko said his sources told him that morgues in the area were overflowing, and that a steady stream of wounded soldiers had arrived at Mazyr City Hospital, where Andrei worked.
In mid-February, Andrei watched in horror as his hometown of Mazyr seemingly turned into a sprawling military base — armored tanks rolled down the streets, Russian soldiers roamed local shops and got drunk at bars downtown. He and his family no longer felt safe, and avoided being outside after dark. Soon they began to suspect that Russia was preparing for war. As the military drills were due to wrap up on February 20, Andrei said his hospital administration extended a directive to treat Russian soldiers free of charge until March 10. “They must have thought the war would end by then,” Andrei said, adding that, two days later, Russian officers from the field hospital outside Mazyr cleaned out the city’s blood bank reserves.
On the morning of February 24, the first day of fighting, Andrei recalled a hospital official gathering all of the doctors into a meeting room, ordering them to keep 250 beds free for Russian casualties, stop all planned surgeries and send what Belarusian patients they could home. “Then they warned us that we were not allowed to share any information about Russian soldiers. We had to sign a non-disclosure form, forbidding us to share any photos, documents,” Andrei said. “They told us that we were being watched by the Russian Federal Security Services (FSB), that they had ways of monitoring our phones.” While he didn’t see any Russian FSB, Andrei said he did notice local Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) agents stalking the halls of the hospital. CNN has reached out to Mazyr City Hospital for comment.
“They warned us that we were not allowed to share any information about Russian soldiers. We had to sign a non-disclosure form, forbidding us to share any photos, documents.”
– Andrei, a doctor from Mazyr, Belarus
Aliaksandr Azarau, head of ByPol, an organization set up by ex-Belarusian police and security service members, told CNN that Mazyr authorities went to great lengths to keep information about the number of wounded Russian soldiers, and the types of injuries they sustained, under wraps. Azarau said that the KGB departments for Mazyr, along with the region’s department of internal affairs, put Mazyr City Hospital “under round-the-clock surveillance” while ”warning the staff of personal responsibility for disclosing information about military personnel undergoing treatment in the hospital.”
Still, Andrei managed to secretly photocopy the X-rays of dozens of troops treated at Mazyr City Hospital, which he shared with CNN. “What I took with me, that part of the archive, could have gotten me into legal trouble for espionage,” he said, adding that he had taken the risk to provide evidence of a side of the war that has so far gone unseen, smuggling them out of Belarus in his daughter’s toy cellphone. The scans included the names and ages of the soldiers, many of whom were between 19 and 21 years old, capturing their injuries in stark black and white.
Andrei said he saw the biggest wave of casualties arrive at Mazyr hospital en masse in the early hours of February 28. After receiving a call that the soldiers were incoming, the doctors assembled at the entrance to the emergency room around midnight, waiting. Soon, busloads of injured troops began to pour in. Russian soldiers carted them inside on stretchers, dumping them at the front doors, Andrei said.
In reality, the hospital was full of soldiers, Andrei said. Some were missing eyes, others required amputations — having arrived with gangrenous, shattered limbs — a few were paralyzed, one had lost part of his brain, another his lower jaw. Several had been wearing tourniquets for days to staunch the blood, their bodies peppered with bullets and shrapnel, the X-rays showed. “There were more wounded, in need of an operation, than we had operating tables,” Andrei said. “The Russians just gave us their injured [soldiers], and didn’t give a damn about them.”
Many of the Russians had been fighting in areas outside of Kyiv — in Hostomel, where they suffered major losses at a key airfield, in Bucha and Borodianka, suburbs that they terrorized for weeks, and in Chernobyl, where their forces were exposed to radiation in the highly toxic zone known as the “Red Forest.” Andrei said he treated Russian paratroopers and special forces injured in the botched assault on Hostomel airfield, where they told him their helicopter came under attack. “They were professional killers. We had to treat them, that was our job. I felt disgusted by the whole thing. But, as a doctor, I am not really allowed to feel disgusted,” he said. Russian Major General Sergei Nyrkov, who suffered a severe abdominal injury in Chernobyl, was also treated at Mazyr hospital, according to his X-ray, which was among those Andrei smuggled out.
But the majority of the injured were young, inexperienced soldiers and conscripts from remote parts of Russia, Andrei said. CNN has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense about these allegations, as well as accusations it has co-opted Belarus to carry out an “act of aggression” against Ukraine, in violation of international law.
On March 1, at a meeting of Belarus’ Security Council, Lukashenko acknowledged that hospitals were providing Russian soldiers with life-saving treatment. “We treat them and will continue treating these guys – in Gomel, Mazyr, and I think in some other district capital when they are transported to us. What’s wrong with that? Injured people have always received medical treatment during any war,” he said, before dismissing reports that Russia had suffered huge losses as fake news.
“Our self-exiled opposition and the rest shout about thousands of injured [Russian military personnel] delivered to Gomel. Nothing like that. We’ve treated about 160-170 injured in this entire period,” Lukashenko added.
But Andrei and other medical professionals in the region tell a different story. In early March, 40 to 50 Russian casualties were brought to Mazyr City Hospital every day, shuttled in and out again like a “conveyor belt,” Andrei said. Most arrived in the dark of night, or early in the morning, in green Russian military buses and ambulances. “We, the doctors at the hospital, thought that maybe they were worried about security, so they brought them under the cover of the night. They were afraid of road traffic to see the red cross on their vehicles. People would know,” Andrei said. The Russians also tried to bring the dead to the hospital, he said, adding: “They didn’t know what to do with them.”
Andrei secretly photographed a bullet he said he removed from a Russian soldier’s neck on March 8. Obtained by CNN
Citing open source information, Franak Viačorka, Tsikhanouskaya’s chief political adviser, told CNN that Russians were using hospitals in both the Gomel and Brest regions between the start of the war and April, but that there were also “many cases when doctors refused to take Russian soldiers,” describing this as grassroots resistance. He added that Russians have not been using infrastructure like hospitals in Belarus since April.
“There were more wounded, in need of an operation, than we had operating tables.”
– Andrei
Mazyr was one of at least three hospitals in Gomel region that treated Russian casualties, according to medical and security sources, who estimated that the facilities collectively cared for hundreds of soldiers. Mikalai, a doctor who left the region and whose name has also been changed for his safety, said that the Regional Clinical Hospital and the Republican Research Center for Radiation Medicine and Human Ecology were among those providing treatment, but that the latter was largely operating with Russian medical staff brought in for the war.
After receiving a patient transferred from the Republican Research Center for Radiation Medicine and Human Ecology, Mikalai said that he had been curious about how the hospital was operating. So, late one night, he drove slowly past the complex. “I saw when it started getting dark, military medical buses coming to the hospital … green-colored ‘PAZ’ vehicles, with their windows covered with white cloth,” he said.
Azarau, the head of ByPol, said that the Republican Research Center for Radiation Medicine and Human Ecology was used to treat Russian servicemen who took part in the assault on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, some of whom showed signs of radiation poisoning. The hospital was originally built in the early 1990s to provide specialized medical care to the local population affected by the Chernobyl disaster.
Mikalai said it was no surprise that the Belarusian and Russian authorities went to great lengths to keep the reality of what was happening behind closed doors in these hospitals a secret. “A great number of wounded young soldiers is a dirty, dirty stain that does not correlate with the idea of this great Russian invasion,” he said, adding that the authorities wanted to give the impression that the situation was under control and reports of a huge number of casualties were fake. “But this is the bad truth … they tried to hide it.”
Unpicking the role that Belarus has played in the Ukraine war has taken on new urgency since Lukashenko announced in October that Russian soldiers would deploy to the country to form a new, “regional grouping” and carry out joint exercises with Belarusian troops, raising fears that he might draw the country more directly into the conflict.
“The fact is that Belarus long ago ceded its sovereignty in significant ways to Russia,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a briefing on October 12, responding to a question about Belarus’ posturing, which the United States is monitoring closely. “The fact that President Putin has been able to use what should be sovereign Belarusian territory as a staging ground, the fact that brutal attacks against the people of Ukraine have emanated from a sovereign third country, Belarus in this case, it is another testament to the fact that the Lukashenko regime does not have the best interests of its people at heart.”
Not only has Russia infringed on Belarus’ sovereignty, it has also posed a serious challenge to NATO — three members of the alliance share a border with Belarus. Putin has been laying the groundwork to transform Belarus into a vassal state for some time. After a rigged presidential election in 2020 cemented Lukashenko’s long reign, triggering widespread pro-democracy protests, he clung to power with the help of Putin. Russia backed the ruthless crackdown on demonstrations, and gave Belarus a $1.5 billion lifeline to evade the brunt of sanctions, but it came with strings attached. Beholden to the Kremlin, Lukashenko has supported Russia’s military actions from the sidelines, so far avoiding sending his own troops into the fray. But he may be forced to shift his position, as Putin racks up losses.
“As far as our participation in the special military operation in Ukraine is concerned, we are participating in it. We do not hide it. But we are not killing anyone,” Lukashenko said in early October. “We offer medical aid to people. We’ve treated people if necessary,” he added.
Still, many in Belarus are terrified that might change. A majority of Belarusians do not want their country to take part in the war, according to a recent Chatham House poll conducted online, which found that only 5% favored sending troops to support Russia. Andrej Stryzhak, a Belarusian human rights activist and founder of BySol, an initiative that supports victims of political persecution in Belarus, who himself faces politically motivated charges for “funding extremist formations,” said that the organization saw a surge in requests for help when the invasion started. The group set up a Telegram channel with advice on how to flee abroad, for people who don’t support the war or were afraid of being mobilized themselves. “We took more than 10,000 consultations … and now we have a Telegram channel with 30,000 subscribers,” Stryzhak said, adding: “It’s very intensive work for us.”
Andrei reached out to BySol for help getting out of the country, but in late August, with the borders to Ukraine and Russia largely impassible, they were unable to assist him. In the end, he was aided by an informal network of Belarusian dissidents living in exile in Lithuania, who identify potential crossing points. They said they too have seen a surge in the number of Belarusian men fleeing for fear they will be forced to fight in Ukraine.
Video: Watch CNN’s interview with a Belarusian doctor who treated Russian casualties
Having seen the havoc that the war has wrought first hand, Andrei said he was concerned that he might be sent into Ukraine as a combat medic. In Russia, doctors are increasingly coming under pressure. Earlier this month, Russian state-run news agency Tass reported that physicians in St. Petersburg received letters from authorities telling them not to leave the country for “security reasons,” and Russia’s parliament said around 3,000 doctors could be called up as part of Putin’s “partial mobilization” of troops.
In late March, Andrei was arrested alongside dozens of other Belarusian doctors, many of whom specialized in surgery, on charges of corruption and receiving bribes, which he denies. After being jailed in the Belarusian capital Minsk for a month and a half, Andrei said he got the sense that their detention may have been an intimidation tactic — to make them think twice before leaving the country. When he was released, he said he was contacted by his local military branch and told to enlist in the army. “I was asked to come to the military enlistment office with my documents … Of course, I didn’t go there,” Andrei said. He fled the country shortly after.
Now settled in another European country with his family, Andrei is relieved to no longer be wondering when or if he might be sent to war. Instead, he’s focused on sitting national medical exams so he can start to practice again in his new home.
“Ukraine is very dear to me. I was worried about my close friends and family living there,” he said, adding that Belarus’ complicity in the war was unbearable. “We wrote to each other ‘Slava Ukraini,’ saying that Ukraine was going to win. My relatives said that we would all outlive all of this. And yet the bombs were being launched at them from the territory where I lived.”
Russia’s General Sergei Surovikin is no stranger to mass murder and spreading terror.
In Chechnya, the shaven-headed veteran officer, who has the physique of a wrestler and an expression to match, vowed to “destroy three Chechen fighters for every Russian soldier killed.” And he’s remembered bitterly in northern Syria for reducing much of the city of Aleppo to ruins.
The 56-year-old air force general also oversaw the relentless targeting of clinics, hospitals and civilian infrastructure in rebel-held Idlib in 2019, an effort to break opponents’ will and send refugees fleeing to Europe via neighboring Turkey. The 11-month campaign “showed callous disregard for the lives of the roughly 3 million civilians in the area,” noted Human Rights Watch in a scathing report.
Now he is repeating his Syrian playbook in Ukraine.
Two weeks ago, Vladimir Putin appointed Surovikin as the overall commander of Russia’s so-called special military operation, to the delight of Moscow’s hawks. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov praised Surovikin as “a real general and a warrior.” He will “improve the situation,” Kadyrov added in a social media post.
But reversing a series of stunning battlefield Ukrainian victories and shifting the tide of the war may be beyond even the ruthless Surovikin. Ukrainians have shown throughout the year they’re made of stern stuff and aren’t going to be intimidated by war crimes — and they’ve endured bombing and bombardments before by equally unscrupulous Russian generals.
But Western military officials and analysts note there are already signs of more tactical coherence than was seen under his predecessor General Alexander Dvornikov. “His war tactics totally breach the rules of war but unfortunately they proved effective in Syria,” a senior British military intelligence officer told POLITICO. “As a war strategist he has a record of effectiveness — however vicious,” the officer added.
Surovikin and other officials point to the targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with a massive wave of attacks the past week. Strikes at the weekend resulted in power outages across the country leaving more than a million households without electricity, the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidency, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said Saturday.
“These are vile strikes on critical objects,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address. “The world can and must stop this terror,” he said. “The geography of this latest mass strike is very wide,” Zelenskyy added. “Of course we don’t have the technical ability to knock down 100 percent of the Russian missiles and strike drones. I am sure that, gradually, we will achieve that, with help from our partners. Already now, we are downing a majority of cruise missiles, a majority of drones.”
Intercepting a majority of what’s being fired by the Russians at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, though, isn’t enough to halt the disruption Surovikin is endeavoring to provoke with the strikes. The scale of the damage caused to Ukraine’s power system at the weekend exceeded what was inflicted in the first wave of strikes on energy infrastructure on October 10, according to a Telegram post by Ukrenergo, the state grid operator.
Cheap shots
Around a third of the country’s power stations have been destroyed since the attacks started, Ukrainian authorities say.
And for Russia the cost of the aerial assault is cheap, relying as it does on Iran’s Shahed-136 unmanned aerial vehicles, basically flying bombs nicknamed “kamikaze drones” because they are destroyed on impact.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with then-PM Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Surovikin in 2017 | Pool photo by Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images
The drones, which have a flying range of 2,500 kilometers, loiter over a target until ordered to attack. With a wingspan of 2.5 meters they can be difficult to identify on radar and cost only an estimated €20,000 to make, compared, say, to cruise missiles costing up to €2 million to produce.
Last week the White House said Iranian drone experts — trainers and tech support workers — have been deployed on the ground in Russia-annexed Crimea to help launch attacks on Ukraine. “Tehran is now directly engaged on the ground, and through the provision of weapons that are impacting civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine,” said national security spokesman John Kirby.
But turning to Iran for assistance also demonstrates a Russian weakness, says a Pentagon adviser. That they are using Iranian drones suggests they really are running out of missiles. “I don’t think their capabilities are anyway as good as they claim. I’ve always thought that the Russians were a bit of a hollow force. They don’t have depth in range with capabilities and they can’t really apply them very effectively. The fact that they’re going to Iranians for drone technology, that’s a pretty sad statement about the once vaunted Russian military-industrial or Soviet military-industrial complex,” the adviser told POLITICO.
And while the drones are helping to cause considerable damage, their light explosive payloads at 36 kilograms present the Russians with a problem – they are not powerful enough to cause “decommissioning” damage to big power stations and so are being aimed at smaller sub-stations instead. Eventually, too, Western and Ukrainian experts will find ways to jam the GPS system the drones depend on to shift them off target. So, they may have a short shelf life of effectiveness, say Western officials.
Not having sufficient depth in terms of capabilities isn’t the only problem facing Russian generals. One of the most debilitating problems for the Russians has been the lack of small-unit leadership and competent supervision on the battlefield.
Ukrainian servicemen and police officers stand guard in a street after a drone attack in Kyiv on October 17, 2022 | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
The Ukrainians since 2014 have been steeped in U.S. military doctrine and training, which focuses on building a professional corps of corporals and sergeants who understand the big picture and are given the delegated authority to make decisions on the battlefield as they lead their units, according to John Barranco, an analyst at the Atlantic Council who oversaw the U.S. Marines’ initial operations in Afghanistan after the 9/11 terror attacks and served in Iraq.
The failure of the Russians to build up such a cadre has plagued them in Ukraine and it isn’t a deficiency Surovikin has time to rectify. In fact, the situation is likely to worsen with the Kremlin now throwing into inadequately battle-trained conscripts from Putin’s partial mobilization order.
Russian retreat
After just a handful of days’ training, conscripts are already dying. And draftees are being sent to what is now the crucial front in this stage of the war — the southern port city of Kherson — where Russian authorities have ordered all residents to leave ahead of a closing advance by Ukrainian troops.
Kherson city is the only regional capital Russia has managed to seize since the invasion began. It was a key prize in establishing a land bridge between Crimea and Ukraine’s south, as well as opening the way for a potential assault on the major Black Sea port of Odesa.
But a Ukrainian counteroffensive that started in the summer is now bearing down on Kherson city. Russia’s tactical position in the area is highly compromised, with units of paratroopers dug in on the west bank of the Dnieper River, where they are highly vulnerable. “From a battlefield geometry point of view, it is a terrible position for the Russians,” Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, told POLITICO.
Watling, who’s been conducting operational analysis with Ukraine’s general staff, says the Russians on the west bank are among their most capable troops but can’t be resupplied reliably “at the scale needed to make them competitive” and they won’t be able to counterattack.
“The Ukrainians have the initiative and can dictate the tempo,” Watling said. “From a purely military point of view, the Russians would be much better off withdrawing from Kherson city and focusing on holding the river [from the east bank] and then putting the bulk of their forces on the Zaporizhzhia axis, but for political reasons they have been slow to do that and seem to ready to fight a delaying action.”
A view taken on October 19, 2022 shows a road sign reading “Kherson” in the town of Armyansk in the north of Moscow-annexed Crimean peninsula bordering the Russian-controlled Kherson region in southern Ukraine | AFP via Getty Images
That seems in line with what Ukraine’s general staff reported at the weekend. Russian troop movements have been occurring in the Kherson region with some units preparing for urban combat, while others have been withdrawing.
In short, Surovikin is being forced to try to pull off one of the most difficult of military maneuvers — an orderly retreat to reposition forces, including draftees with scant training and units that have no cohesion. When more experienced Russian troops tried the same move near Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine last month, they suffered a rout.
Thuggery alone won’t save Russian conscripts from motivated and agile Ukrainian forces. Whether Surovikin has the tactical skills to navigate a dangerous retreat will be what counts.
Western countries have dismissed Moscow’s claim as “transparently false”.
Although no successful dirty bomb attack has ever been recorded, two failed attempts to detonate such a device were reported in the southern Russian province of Chechnya more than 20 years ago. Investigators also found nuclear material capable of being used in a dirty bomb in an abandoned factory in Chechnya.
Here’s a look at what experts mean by the term “dirty bomb”:
How does a dirty bomb work?
Technically known as radiological dispersal devices, dirty bombs are relatively primitive, imprecise weapons. They are much easier and cheaper to build than a nuclear device and also far less dangerous.
Dirty bombs use conventional explosives, such as dynamite, placed alongside radioactive material, which is then flung outward by the force of the blast. The amount of radioactive material dispersed, while dangerous, is not necessarily lethal.
The material used in a dirty bomb could be obtained from radioactive sources used in medicine and industry or from research facilities.
“A dirty bomb is really easy to make,” said Scott Roecker, vice president for the nuclear materials security programme at The Nuclear Threat Initiative, a non-profit organisation based in Washington.
“It’s a crude device.”
Richard Giragosian, founding director of the Regional Studies Centre, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia, said in a 2016 op-ed for Al Jazeera that following the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States by al-Qaeda, fears multiplied in the West of the dangers posed by radiological “dirty” bombs.
Giragosian said that while there had been significant efforts in Russia and Ukraine to dispose of radioactive materials left over from the former Soviet Union, safely disposing of such material in the Caucasus had been “a lower priority”.
Soviet-era facilities in the Caucasus had once had “ample supplies of caesium, strontium and other related radiological materials”. But since the collapse of the Soviet Union, “most of these facilities have been only minimally protected, with meagre security precautions or safeguards”, he said.
Giragosian had also said at the time of writing that the arrests of three suspects in Georgia for attempting to sell radioactive material should remind the world that it cannot remain complacent to dirty bombs.
The number of casualties and the extent of damage from a dirty bomb depends on many variables.
A key factor is the amount and type of conventional explosives that are used, which determine the magnitude of the blast.
The quantity and type of radioactive materials released are other factors, as are weather conditions – and especially the wind – at the time of the blast. A potentially wide area could be contaminated.
Low levels of radiation exposure usually do not cause any symptoms. People may not know whether they have been exposed because radiation cannot be seen, smelled or tasted.
How dangerous is a dirty bomb?
Experts say the main effect of a dirty bomb is psychological, which is why such devices are often referred to as “weapons of mass disruption” as against mass destruction.
Dirty bombs are not for battlefield use, being deployed more obviously in urban areas, Roecker said.
“They’re more of a psychological weapon. When you’re trying to scare people, intimidate people, you’d use a weapon like this,” he said.
The radioactive dust and smoke can spread far and are dangerous if inhaled near the blast’s epicentre.
The radioactive cloud would likely spread over several blocks, according to Roecker. But as radioactive material spreads through the atmosphere, it becomes less concentrated and less harmful.
Key factors in radiation exposure are what type of radiation it is, how long someone is exposed to it, and whether the radiation was absorbed through the skin, inhaled or consumed orally.
Specialised equipment is required to detect radiation.
Contaminated homes, businesses and public services could be placed off-limits for months and need an expensive clean-up operation.
More than two dozen liberal House members are calling on President Joe Biden to shift course in his Ukraine strategy and pursue direct diplomacy with Russia to bring the months-long conflict to an end.
In a letter sent to Biden on Monday, the group of 30 Democrats praise Biden’s efforts to date at supporting Ukraine while avoiding direct US involvement on the ground. But they suggest a more forceful attempt at bringing the war to an end through diplomacy is necessary to prevent a long and slogging conflict.
“Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict,” the group, led by Congressional Progressive Caucus chairwoman Pramila Jayapal, write in the letter. “For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.”
The letter comes at a critical moment in the war, as Russia increasingly targets civilian infrastructure with a particular focus on cutting power supplies to Ukrainian citizens ahead of winter.
In Congress, questions have grown at the willingness of lawmakers to sustain the massive financial and military support that has gone to Ukraine. Some Republicans have threatened to cut aid to the country if they take control of Congress in November.
The liberal Democrats, in their letter, say that more direct attempts at engaging Moscow in diplomacy were necessary as the war drags on.
“We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine and its decision to make additional illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory,” the lawmakers wrote. “However, if there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine.”
John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator at the National Security Council, said the White House had received the letter.
“We certainly appreciate the sentiments expressed by these members of Congress,” Kirby said.
“We have been working with members of Congress throughout this entire process, especially when we have needed additional funding to support Ukraine’s defense needs,” Kirby said. “And it’s been done in full collaboration in full transparency with members of Congress. And that is exactly the way the President wants to continue going forward.”
Still, Kirby said there were no indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin was willing to engage in serious diplomacy to bring the war to an end.
“When you see and you listen to his rhetoric, and you see the other things, be they atrocities, the war crimes, the airstrikes against civilian infrastructure that the Russians are committing, it’s clear Mr. Putin is in no mood to negotiate,” Kirby said.
He said it would be up to Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, when the time is right to return to the negotiating table.
“Mr. Zelensky gets to determine when he thinks that’s the right time, and Mr. Zelensky gets to determine, because it’s his country, what success looks like, what victory looks and what sort of terms he willing to negotiate on,” Kirby said. “We’re not going to dictate that.”
UBS on Tuesday reported a net income of $1.7 billion for the third quarter of this year, slightly above analyst expectations, with the Swiss bank citing a challenging environment.
Analysts had expected a net profit of $1.64 billion, according to Refinitiv data. UBS reported a net income of $2.3 billion a year ago.
The Swiss lender had missed expectations in the last quarterwhen it posted a net profit of $2.108 billion. The bank said at the time the second quarter had been “one of the most challenging periods for investors in the last 10 years” due to high inflation, the war in Ukraine and strict Covid-19 policies in Asia.
UBS said Tuesday these factors continued to be in investors’ minds in the third quarter.
“The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has become increasingly complex. Clients remain concerned about persistently high inflation, elevated energy prices, the war in Ukraine and residual effects of the pandemic,” Ralph Hamers, CEO of UBS, said in a statement.
Other highlights for the quarter include:
Revenues hit $8.3 billion, down from $9.1 billion a year ago.
Operating expenses dropped to $5.9 billion, from $6.2 billion a year ago.
CET 1 capital ratio, a measure of bank solvency, reached 14.4% versus 14.9% a year ago.
Its investment banking division saw revenues down by 19% with the lower performance in equity derivatives, cash equities, and financing revenue being offset by revenues in foreign exchange. The Global Wealth Management division also reported lower revenues, down by 4% year-on-year.
However, Personal and Corporate Banking revenues rose over the same period on more beneficial rates from the Swiss National Bank.
Russia’s general in charge of nuclear defense claimed that Ukraine is in the final stages of building a so-called dirty bomb and could use it against its own people. The U.S. dismissed Russia’s allegation as “transparently false.” Holly Williams has the latest.
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A Russian mercenary firm is building a line of anti-tank obstacles across eastern Ukraine. The Wagner Group earlier this month began laying parallel lines of so-called “dragon’s teeth”—three-foot-tall concrete pyramids weighing a couple of hundred pounds apiece—just west of Hirske in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.
The initial line of dragon’s teeth is just a mile long. There are indications the Russians plan to build additional fortifications in nearby areas across the same region.
Experts are befuddled by the effort. The fortifications, as implemented, are fairly pointless. Indeed, inasmuch as they consume time and resources, they actually are counterproductive to Russia’s faltering war effort.
A few low obstacles across one small sector of a front that stretches for hundreds of miles won’t stop Ukrainian brigades that, for seven weeks now, steadily have been advancing in the east. The Ukrainians simply could go around the dragon’s teeth.
And if for some reason they find it’s better to go through the obstacles, they have plenty of options for breaching them. Every experienced mechanized army employs combat engineers specifically for such tasks. And the Ukrainian army by now is the world’s most experienced mechanized army.
That Wagner is planting dragon’s teeth should surprise no one. “When on the defensive and time permits, Russians dig in,” Lester Grau and Charles Bartles detailed in their definitive The Russian Way of War.
But the dragon’s teeth by themselves aren’t very imposing. The Russian army and its mercenary allies still mostly follow Soviet doctrine. And in Soviet doctrine, physical obstacles such as dragon’s teeth are supposed to be part of a layered defense that also includes minefields and prepared positions for infantry armed with anti-tank weapons.
The idea is for the obstacles to channel attacking forces into the minefields. If the attackers get clear of the minefields, a good defensive plan then would guide them into kill zones where the infantry can finish them off.
It’s safe to assume Wagner’s engineers are burying anti-tank mines around the dragon’s teeth. Cheap and powerful buried mines are a major danger to troops on both sides of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine.
It’s less evident, however, that the mercs are preparing the extensive infantry strongpoints that, in good doctrine, are a necessary complement to physical obstacles and minefields.
“Barriers, obstacles and mines can be used in the economy of force role to strengthen a naturally strong existing obstacle area so that it need only be lightly defended,” the U.S. Army notes in its Joint Publication 3-15.
Lightly defended is not the same as undefended. To work against a motivated attacker, static defenses still require well-equipped, well-supplied and well-led infantry in supporting positions.
But the Russian army and its allies have lost 100,000 men in Ukraine and are struggling to recruit, train and deploy replacements. It’s possible Wagner isn’t preparing extensive infantry strongpoints behind its dragon’s teeth because there aren’t any infantry to occupy them.
If a Ukrainian brigade runs into the dragon’s teeth outside Hirske and discovers the fortifications to be lightly manned, the brigade simply can pause, deploy engineers and take its time demolishing the obstacles.
Don’t doubt the Ukrainians are prepared to breach a static defensive line. They’ve got the equipment for it, including mineclearing vehicles based on T-64 tanks plus classic ex-Soviet IMR-3 engineering vehicles and explosive line-charges. Ukrainian sappers have trained with the Canadian and Polish armies.
It’s easier to go around obstacles than to breach them, of course—even when the obstacles are thinly manned. The dragon’s teeth Wagner is planting protect just one approach to Hirske, a town with middling strategic value. In a country as big as Ukraine, there almost always are ways around.
It helps, of course, that everyone knows exactly where the obstacles outside Hirske are and how far they extend. When the Ukrainian counteroffensive reaches Hirske, it’s likely the attacking battalions simply will pivot north or south, looping around the dragon’s teeth and any other prepared fortifications.
That’s what the German army did in 1940 when it ran up against France’s famed, and ill-fated, Maginot Line—a far more sophisticated defensive obstacle than Wagner’s sad rows of concrete pyramids. “Didn’t work then, won’t work now,” retired U.S. Army general Mark Hertling quipped.
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Russia is bringing new military units into Kherson as it prepares to defend the city from any fresh Ukrainian offensive, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency said in an interview with Kyiv-based news website Ukrainska Pravda.
Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov said that, while Moscow was moving injured people, cash and the Russian-installed administrative authorities and financial institutions out of the city, it was putting more troops in.
“[Russian bank] Promsvyazbank and other financial structures that the Russians brought there are being taken out,” Budanov said.
“They are taking out cash, [internet] servers, the so-called occupation authorities … All the non-walking, seriously injured are being taken out, they are trying to discharge those who can walk as soon as possible from hospitals … They create the illusion that everything is lost,” added Budanov.
“And at the same time, on the contrary, they bring new military units there and prepare the streets of the city for defense.”
Budanov said Moscow was acting out of fear that Ukrainian troops might retake the critical Kakhovka dam, which lies to the east of Kherson, and encircle its troops in the city.
“They understand that if we take at least control over the Kakhovka dam … they will have to make a decision very quickly. Either [they will have to] very, very quickly leave the city and get out, or they risk ending up in the same situation that our units in Mariupol found themselves in earlier,” he said.
“Understanding all this, they are preparing the ground so that, if necessary, they can get out of there very quickly. However, they are not preparing to leave now. They are preparing to defend.”
Budanov repeated allegations that the Russians had “partially mined” the dam.
He said he didn’t believe Russian forces would completely destroy it, because doing so would flood much of the Kherson region and cut off the water supply to annexed Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
“In other words, if you make a complete destruction, then the scenario is as follows. Are they ready for it? I don’t think so,” he said.
LONDON — It took one bruising campaign defeat and six weeks of exile — but on Tuesday, Rishi Sunak will finally become U.K. prime minister.
He faces the toughest in-tray of any British leader since World War II, entering No. 10 Downing Street as the country hurtles into winter with energy bills, hospital waiting lists, borrowing costs and inflation all soaring.
The challenge has been magnified by Liz Truss’ brief crash-and-burn premiership. As a result of her now-infamous mini-budget, which was scrapped almost in its entirety after causing chaos in financial markets, the Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour Party by over 30 percentage points in opinion polls.
On Monday, Sunak told MPs he was ready to hit the ground running as he addressed them for the first time since becoming Tory leader. Over the days and months ahead, he will need to carry out his first ministerial reshuffle without further fracturing his party; oversee the first budget since the last one wreaked havoc on the economy; and determine what support to offer voters with their energy bills past this spring.
Prime ministers tend to think of their first 100 days as a way to set the tone for their premierships. For Sunak, who has just over two years to govern before he is required to face a general election, that first impression is going to be particularly important.
October 25 — Meeting with the king and first speech outside No. 10 Downing Street
Sunak will become the prime minister Tuesday after an audience with King Charles III, where he will ask the monarch for permission to form a government.
Sunak will then address the country for the first time as prime minister from the steps outside No. 10 Downing Street at around 11.35 a.m.
To much of the British public, the former chancellor is a familiar face who announced the wildly-popular furlough scheme during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.
His task now will be to reassure people that the government will support them during another difficult economic period — only this time he is in a much tougher position. The popularity he gained during the pandemic has waned, and he is taking over after a major government crisis — the third Tory prime minister to hold office within three months.
October 25 — First reshuffle
The first big political test for Sunak will be his Cabinet reshuffle. Tory MPs believe he will learn the lesson from Truss’ first and only one, where she divvied up roles between her allies and left almost everyone who didn’t back her out in the cold.
“I think his reshuffle will be more unifying, bringing in people from all wings and will not be as destabilizing as Liz’s,” an MP who did not back Sunak predicted.
Sunak’s leadership rival Penny Mordaunt is expected to be handed a major Cabinet position | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
Sunak is likely to make at least his major Cabinet appointments Tuesday afternoon, so they are in place to line up alongside him on the House of Commons’ front bench when MPs grill him during so-called prime minister’s questions (PMQs) on Wednesday.
His biggest decision will be whether to keep Jeremy Hunt — who was drafted in by Truss in a last-ditch effort to save her premiership — as chancellor. He is also likely to hand a big job to his leadership rival Penny Mordaunt.
Close Sunak allies who are likely to get promotions include Mel Stride, the current chairman of the Treasury select committee, Craig Williams, Claire Coutinho and Laura Trott. Tory big beast Michael Gove could see a return to Cabinet.
October 26 — First PMQs
Sunak will go head-to-head as prime minister with Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, for the first time on Wednesday.
Unlike his predecessor, Sunak won’t have much to worry about from his own side — Tory MPs have largely rowed behind him since he became their leader on Monday, with many expressing relief that the perpetual state of crisis of the Truss government has ended.
But MPs will want him to demonstrate that he can land blows against Starmer at a time when Labour is streets ahead in the polls. Sunak told Tory MPs on Tuesday that their party faced an “existential threat” as a result of its low poll ratings.
October 28 — Deadline to form a government in Belfast
If a power-sharing arrangement is not in place at Stormont by Friday, a fresh set of elections to the Northern Irish assembly will have to be triggered.
Calling these elections — the second set in seven months — could be one of the Sunak government’s first acts and an indication of successive Tory prime ministers’ failure to deal with the political crisis in Northern Ireland.
The Democratic Unionist Party issued a fresh warning on Monday night that it would not participate in the assembly unless Sunak takes action on the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol agreed with the EU.
October 31 — First budget
The next budget was penciled in for October 31 by Kwasi Kwarteng, the Truss-era chancellor who wanted to use it to reassure financial markets still reeling from his last one.
The timing of the budget — widely derided by Tory MPs because of the optics of holding it on Halloween — was intended to give the Bank of England time to react before its own key meeting on November 3, where it will set interest rate levels for the weeks ahead.
In its biggest test so far, Sunak’s government will have to decide whether to stick with that date; what actions to take to reassure the markets; and how to fill the enormous hole in the U.K. public finances.
Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said: “If his chancellor is Jeremy Hunt and Sunak is comfortable with the way things are proceeding for next Monday, then going ahead has lots of advantages.
“You get the announcement out before the Bank of England makes its next inflation figure, and you get the Office for Budgetary Responsibility forecasts out there, which helps show the markets you are serious about them.
“The case for changing that date is much stronger if Sunak says, ‘Actually, I want to do something different to what Jeremy Hunt has been planning, and I need more time,’” Emmerson added.
November 3 — Bank of England rates meeting
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee is expected to raise interest rates at its meeting on November 3, triggering a fresh hike in people’s mortgages.
This is the point when many people will realize for the first time that they will have to make much larger mortgage repayments once their current fixed-rate deals come to an end.
Sunak made combating inflation and keeping mortgages low a central theme of his leadership campaign over the summer. Reacting to the rates decision and ensuring the government works closely with the Bank of England to combat inflation will be a key test of his premiership.
November 6 — COP27 summit in Egypt
Sunak made a point of telling Tory MPs on Tuesday that he is committed to the U.K.’s goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
The question now is whether he attends the COP27 climate summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. Truss reportedly planned to go, despite her skepticism of aspects of the net-zero agenda.
If Sunak does go to Egypt, it could be his first foreign trip in office (unless he decides to make a quick visit to Ukraine beforehand) and his first opportunity to present himself on the world stage.
November 8 — Boundary changes
The Boundary Commission for England will publish its new constituency map on November 8.
At this point, some Tory MPs will know with near certainty that their constituencies are being carved up between neighboring areas, with some forced to jostle with colleagues over who will get to stand where.
It will be a political headache for Sunak to deal with, and any MPs whose safe seats become marginal will sense their political careers coming to an end — and will have less of an incentive to support him in key votes in the months ahead.
November 13 — G20 meeting in Indonesia
The next big foreign trip coming down the track is the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia.
The meeting will be an opportunity for Western powers to present a united front against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and against China’s increased aggression toward Taiwan, but also to hold talks behind closed doors. There have been reports that both China’s Xi Jinping and Russian Vladimir Putin will attend.
Sophia Gaston, the head of foreign policy at the Policy Exchange think tank, said this was shaping up to be “one of the most extraordinary summits of modern history, with a violent war raging in Ukraine and the leading protagonist, Vladimir Putin, on the guest list alongside other autocratic leaders and outraged democratic allies.”
“As well as promoting free trade and the rules-based international order, Sunak would likely see the G20 as an opportunity to build support for his proposed ‘NATO-style’ technology alliance,” Gaston said. “He may well also debut a new U.K. message on the net-zero transition.”
Late November or early December — Chester by-election
Labour whips are preparing to trigger a by-election in the city of Chester in late November or December.
The by-election is taking place because the city’s MP Christian Matheson resigned after a parliamentary watchdog recommended he be suspended for sexual misconduct.
Matheson sits on a 6,164-vote majority, and the seat has traditionally been a swing seat flipping between the Tories and Labour. It was Conservative up until 2010.
Based on current polling figures, Labour should win a significantly larger majority than it currently has, though by-elections do suffer from small turnouts and so unexpected results are not uncommon. A dramatic Tory defeat would set alarm bells ringing in the party.
Another by-election could be triggered in the coming months if, as expected, Boris Johnson elevates his ally and MP Nadine Dorries to the House of Lords in his resignation honors. That would likely be the first by-election in a Tory-held seat fought with Sunak as party leader.
December 31 — U.K. deadline for joining trans-Pacific trade bloc
The U.K. government has said it hopes to conclude negotiations on joining the CPTPP — a trade agreement signed by 11 countries including Australia and New Zealand — by the end of the year.
Securing this deal was one of Truss’ priorities. For Sunak it would represent both a concrete foreign policy achievement and an indication that the U.K. is successfully building closer diplomatic ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific after Brexit.
Talks around the partnership have thrown up some diplomatic obstacles, with China reacting angrily to U.K. trade officials meeting Taiwanese counterparts. Both China and Taiwan have applied to join the CPTPP.
There have been suggestions that the evidence against him is so damning that Johnson could face temporary suspension from parliament or even be kicked out as an MP. The inquiry may have formed part of Johnson’s decision not to stand for the Tory leadership contest.
If the privileges committee says Johnson should be sanctioned once it concludes its inquiry, Sunak will have to judge his response and decide whether to whip Tory MPs to back its recommendations even if that provokes Johnson’s ire. There is also the risk that Sunak himself will be dragged into the probe, given he too was fined over the Partygate scandal.
Among other things, the probe will examine the impact of the economic policies that Sunak designed as chancellor during the pandemic, putting his decisions under scrutiny.
His “Eat Out to Help Out” scheme — which encouraged people to dine in restaurants during the post-lockdown summer of 2020 — could become a focus, with critics claiming it drove up coronavirus-related infections and deaths.
February — Energy support nears its end
By the time Sunak’s first 100 days are up, there will be pressure on the government to explain how it will support people with their energy bills past the spring if wholesale gas prices haven’t drastically fallen. Hunt has already rolled back the Truss government’s two-year guarantee and instead capped people’s energy bills at an average of £2,500 for just six months. That policy ends in April.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Emmerson said: “We’ve got a big generous offer from the government through this winter — although prices are still a lot higher than they were last year, they will be nowhere near as high as they would have otherwise been.
“The prime minister and chancellor will spend a lot of time thinking about how they replace that scheme. In some ways, it’s very similar to the kind of furlough scheme that Sunak had during the pandemic — very generous, big scheme with lots of crude edges to it,” he said.
“It’s understandable wanting to get in place quickly to support people, but how do you get out of it? Do it too quickly and that’s too much pain for too many people — keep it in place for too long, and that’s very expensive to the government.”
It’s just one of so many enormous decisions the new PM faces in his first 100 days.
The 101st Airborne Division from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, now headquartered in Europe for the first time since World War II. Charlie D’Agata joined America’s most forward troops near Ukraine’s border.
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In the mail this week, as Russia stepped up its drone attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine, viewers commented on Scott Pelley’s story last Sunday, “The Lost Souls of Bucha.”
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Russia’s defense minister accused Ukrainians of planning to use a so-called dirty bomb – a claim that was strongly refuted by US officials on Sunday as a Russian false flag operation.
The allegation from Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu came during a phone call with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday, the second call in three days between the two top officials.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said the two discussed the situation in Ukraine but did not provide further details. It was Shoigu who initiated the phone call to Austin, according to a senior US administration official.
A second official familiar with the conversation said Shoigu made the claim about the planned usage of a dirty bomb, a weapon that combines conventional explosives and uranium. That claim, which the Kremlin has amplified in recent days, has been strongly refuted by the US, Ukraine and the United Kingdom as a Russian false flag operation.
Shoigu has made similar comments to his French and British counterparts as well.
“We reject reports of Minister Shoigu’s transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson told CNN in a statement. “The world would see through any attempt to use this allegation as a pretext for escalation.”
The US is also watching very closely for any intelligence that Russia has a specific plan to blow up a major dam near Kherson where Russia has ordered citizens to evacuate, the official said.
Later Sunday, the US State Department released a joint statement with the foreign ministers of France and the UK that also called Shoigu’s allegations false and reiterated their unified support for Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.
On Friday, Austin called Shoigu, the first call between the two in several months. Before Friday, the two had not spoken since May.
