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  • Orbán’s new public enemy: A Twitter-savvy US ambassador calling out conspiracies

    Orbán’s new public enemy: A Twitter-savvy US ambassador calling out conspiracies

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    BUDAPEST — On an early morning drive from his residence to the U.S. Embassy, David Pressman kept a close eye on his surroundings. 

    Look, the new U.S. ambassador to Hungary said, pointing out the government-funded billboards dotting Budapest’s streets. 

    “The Brussels sanctions are ruining us!” they declared, the word “sanctions” emblazoned across a flying bomb.

    One by one, the posters whizzed by, blaring the same ominous warning.

    These types of signs have been a feature of the Budapest landscape for years, spinning up a conspiratorial gallery of foreign enemies Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has used to instill fear and anger in the Hungarian population as he vies to keep his grip on power. 

    But historically, the U.S. — like many of its Western partners — has stayed relatively quiet in public about these targeted messaging campaigns and the rise of anti-Western government rhetoric, which often reflected the country’s democratic backsliding and the local influence of Russian propaganda. 

    With Pressman, that has changed. Pressman’s presence alone is an implicit rebuke of Orbán’s strongman, culture wars agenda. Pressman is a human rights lawyer, has a male partner and has worked closely with George Clooney, a totem of the Fox News-caricatured “Hollywood liberal elite.”

    And in just two months on the job, the new American ambassador has become a household name in Budapest for his willingness to call out — and even troll — the Orbán government’s overtly propagandistic and conspiratorial bombast.

    There is, Pressman said in his first interview since taking his post, a “need to be both respectful and more candid about what we’re seeing.”

    Recently, the U.S. embassy posted a once-unthinkable video quiz challenging people to guess whether quotes came from Hungarian public figures or Russian President Vladimir Putin. The answer, of course, was never Putin.

    “I’m concerned when I see missiles flying from Moscow into children’s playgrounds in Kyiv — and see the foreign minister of Hungary flying into Moscow to do Facebook Live conferences from Gazprom headquarters,” the ambassador told POLITICO.  

    For this approach, Pressman has become the latest foreign enemy in Budapest.

    In a country that recently banned the portrayal of LGBTQ+ content to minors, Pressman has put his personal life on display | Janka Szitas/U.S. Embassy Budapest

    The newspapers cover him regularly — “Clown diplomacy,” one declared. State-owned and Orbán-friendly TV channels are similarly obsessed, portraying the American ambassador as a secretive colonial overlord sent to meddle in Hungary’s internal affairs.

    And in a country that recently banned the portrayal of LGBTQ+ content to minors, Pressman has put his personal life on display, posting photos of his partner and their two kids as they arrived to present his diplomatic credentials. 

    “I think it speaks for itself,” Pressman said. “Sometimes the power of example,” he added, “is the most powerful way we can communicate about shared values and concerns.” 

    In many ways, Pressman’s story is emblematic of the evolution of the broader relationship between the U.S. and Hungary. For years, an ambassador posting in Budapest was primarily considered a symbolic role, reserved for wealthy political donors with no foreign policy expertise. 

    Hungary, the thinking went, was a reliable European Union and NATO member that required little extra attention in Washington. But the erosion of democratic norms — combined with Moscow’s influence in Budapest and Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine — has changed the calculus. 

    “The stakes right now are huge,” the ambassador said. “The politicization and partisanization of the relationship,” he added, “is not sustainable.”

    A pragmatic idealist 

    Pressman, unlike many of his predecessors, is no novice to U.S. foreign policy. 

    As a young lawyer, he teamed up with Clooney on a campaign to get those in power to pay attention to atrocities in Darfur — later earning the nickname “Cuz” from Clooney. He also made stops as an aide to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, as a Homeland Security Department official and a White House staffer during the Obama years. In 2014, he landed in New York as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations for special political affairs. 

    Those experiences — and his resulting relationships across government — have given Pressman the backing to make significant changes to how the U.S. approaches Orbán’s government. 

    Samantha Power, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author-turned-diplomat, was the one who brought the then-32-year-old Pressman to the White House before working closely together in New York when she became U.N. ambassador. Pressman, she said, was her go-to person for tough assignments. 

    Once, she recalled, her staff needed to convince China to join sanctions against North Korea after a nuclear test.

    “David,” she told POLITICO, “is a person that I entrusted in the day-to-day to work with the Chinese ambassador to extract as robust a set of sanctions as possible.” 

    “When we see insane Kremlin stories being re-propagated in the Hungarian media, we’re gonna call that out, because we have to”, David Pressman said | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty images

    Pressman, Power recounted, was so well-prepared that it was as if he “got a PhD in iron ore trafficking.” His prep work also paid off. “No one had invested more in advance of the nuclear tests in a relationship with his Chinese counterpart that he could then call upon when it mattered for the United States,” she added. 

    Now, Hungary matters for the United States. In the last 12 years, Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party has taken control of much of the media landscape, placed allies at the helm of independent state institutions, channeled government resources into political campaigning and nurtured ties to Moscow and Beijing. The development has strained the bedrock of the global democratic order.

    On a recent fall day, the ambassador invited POLITICO to visit his home at 7:30 in the morning, as his sons were getting ready to leave for school. He then spent the day racing between meetings with anti-corruption experts, a founding member of Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party, Hungarian students and a fellow ambassador. 

    At the discussion with anti-corruption campaigners, Pressman placed a large notebook on the table and began scribbling as he tossed out a flurry of questions: Who is involved? How does this work? How do you know that? 

    Later, Pressman popped into a graffiti-decorated pub and took his seat among a cluster of high school and university students. Again, the questions came quickly: How do your peers see the U.S.? Is there anyone in the government you trust? What comes to mind on Russia? 

    Pressman is known as an idealist. As the White House National Security Council’s director for war crimes and atrocities, he decorated his office — no bigger than two large filing cabinets — with photos of indicted war criminals the U.S. was trying to apprehend, Power recalled.

    But he still professes a pragmatic approach. His goal, he insists, is to build relationships with the Hungarian government — even as he needles it over anti-democratic behavior. The two sides can work together, he noted.

    “When we see insane Kremlin stories being re-propagated in the Hungarian media, we’re gonna call that out, because we have to,” he said. 

    But, Pressman added, “all of that is with the intent to pull us closer together — not to push us apart.”

    A troubled relationship 

    Even before the ambassador’s arrival, anti-American rhetoric had been on the rise in Hungary. 

    In the government-controlled press, the U.S. is both the boogeyman behind the invasion of Ukraine and the puppet master of Hungary’s opposition parties. Fidesz-linked outlets even spread paranoid conspiracy theories about a U.S. diplomat who died in a traffic accident.  

    But in recent weeks, the vitriol — and the personal attacks on Pressman — has reached a fever pitch. 

    As Orbán’s allies have tightened their judicial system vice grip, the EU and others have made strengthening the council a priority | John Thys/AFP via Getty images

    One sharp escalation occurred after Pressman posted a photo of himself meeting with two judges from the National Judicial Council. 

    The group’s bureaucratic name belies its heated symbolic and political importance in Hungary. 

    The council is meant to help oversee Hungary’s judiciary. So as Orbán’s allies have tightened their judicial system vice grip, the EU and others have made strengthening the council a priority.

    Pressman’s decision, just weeks into his job, to sit down with the council’s representatives sparked dozens of articles attacking him and breathless TV coverage.

    “Unprecedented serious interference in the judiciary,” blared a headline in the government-linked Origo news portal. “Today what comes to mind is that if we have such friends, then we don’t need enemies,” the Orbán-adjacent Magyar Nemzet newspaper pronounced.

    Even in private, Hungarian officials stewed. “His meeting with two infamous judges,” said one senior Hungarian official, ”was a pretty unfortunate beginning.” A spokesperson for the Hungarian government did not respond to questions about Pressman.

    Judge Csaba Vasvári — the council’s spokesperson and one of the figures who met with the ambassador — told POLITICO the public pillorying is fueling a “strong chilling effect” within the judiciary. 

    Instead of letting it pass, Pressman pushed back — in his own style. 

    The U.S. embassy posted a host of photos of politicians and senior diplomats meeting with judges — including, cheekily, a smiling younger Orbán standing beside former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy. 

    “What is inconsistent with normal diplomatic practice between allies,” the embassy said in a public statement, “is the recent coordinated media attack on the spokesperson and international liaison of the National Judicial Council in what appears to be an effort to instill fear in those who wish to engage with representatives of the United States.” 

    A politicized alliance 

    Orbán and his government have made no secret of their disdain for Democrats.

    Democrats, they say, want to impose their liberal ideology on Hungary. They are the ones who ruined the relationship with Hungary. They lack family values. They are not a Christian government. 

    “Always great to hear from our good friend @realDonaldTrump. Let’s make US-HU relations great again!” Orbán tweeted recently at the Twitter-banished ex-president | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty images

    Republicans are the exact opposite, in the government’s narrative. Orbán himself has personally courted MAGA-ites at their own super bowl — CPAC. He hosted Tucker Carlson in Budapest. He pines on Twitter for Donald Trump’s return. 

    “Always great to hear from our good friend @realDonaldTrump. Let’s make US-HU relations great again!” Orbán tweeted recently at the Twitter-banished ex-president.

    It’s these types of tossed-off comments that no longer pass without a response. 

    “With Hungary facing economic challenges and Vladimir Putin’s war on its doorstep, the time for a great US-HU relationship? Right now,” Pressman quipped back. 

    It wasn’t the pair’s first sarcastic Twitter repartee, either. When the Hungarian leader first joined the platform in October and rhetorically asked where Trump was, Pressman also jumped in. 

    “While you look around for your friend, perhaps another friend to follow: the President of the United States,” he shot back, before offering a sly nod to his critics: “But as the Hungarian media might say: no pressure.” 

    Such cutting Twitter missives are not to everyone’s liking. Some even insist they are having a boomerang effect, cheapening diplomacy and further deteriorating the U.S.-Hungarian relationship.

    Two former Trump-era intelligence officials recently blasted Pressman’s approach in the Wall Street Journal, calling the playful video quiz a “cringe-worthy example of the State Department’s woke virtue signaling.” 

    “When the U.S. has issues with foreign leaders, it should deal with them through adult diplomacy,” they added. “Instead, our diplomatic efforts under President Biden, a self-styled foreign-policy expert, could be summed up as ‘anyone I don’t like is Putin.’” 

    The Biden administration batted away any concerns.  

    When POLITICO asked for comment on the ambassador’s work, the State Department was quick to both express the administration’s “full confidence” in Pressman and to pass along a bipartisan endorsement from Cindy McCain, the widow of Republican stalwart and foreign policy maven John McCain. 

    McCain, now in Rome as a U.S. diplomat, talked of knowing Pressman for “nearly two decades,” and said he had “earned the deep respect of national security and foreign policy leaders in both the Republican and Democratic parties.”

    If there is any overarching goal, it is to call out Russian propaganda, while still paying attention to how Hungary’s government treats minorities at home | Yuri Kadobnov/AFP via Getty images

    For his part, Pressman insisted the embassy has no partisan goals and simply wants a better relationship with the Hungarian authorities. 

    “Our work is not about liberal policies. It’s not about conservative policies,” he said. “But it’s fundamentally about shared core values that are premised upon small ‘d’ democracy, and ensuring that we are able to collaborate together.” 

    If there is any overarching goal, it is to call out Russian propaganda — while still paying attention to how Hungary’s government treats minorities at home.

    “The United States will always engage on behalf of communities that are vulnerable or marginalized, and that are under pressure — and here in Hungary, there are a few of those,” the ambassador said, noting that groups have Washington’s support as “they seek to engage in their own democratic process.”

    Principled stances aside, the situation is undeniably strange: A diplomat from an allied country becoming public enemy No. 1 — and the top news story. On a recent Sunday evening, the Fidesz-linked HírTV station spent nearly half an hour on Pressman.

    Pressman insisted he doesn’t take it personally. But “do we take it seriously? Absolutely,” he said. 

    “I’m the representative of the United States of America,” he added. “It’s unusual to find yourself,” he observed with understatement, in “an environment quite like this.” 

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  • G-20 nations to condemn Russia’s Ukraine invasion as Foreign Minister Lavrov watches on

    G-20 nations to condemn Russia’s Ukraine invasion as Foreign Minister Lavrov watches on

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    NUSA DUA, INDONESIA – NOVEMBER 15: Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov arrives at the formal welcome ceremony to mark the beginning of the G20 Summit on November 15, 2022 in Nusa Dua, Indonesia. The G20 meetings are being held in Bali from November 15-16. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images,)

    Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    G-20 nations on Tuesday will issue a joint statement condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying “today’s era must not be of war.”

    Leaders of the world’s largest economies are gathered in Indonesia this week. Tensions over Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine has raised questions about whether they would be able to unite on what is one of the most pressing issues globally, with Russia being a member of the G-20 grouping. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, is attending the summit.

    “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy — constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks,” the joint statement will say, according to a draft document seen by CNBC.

    The joint statement also said “the peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war.”

    The communique has been agreed upon by the highest public servants of all the G-20 nations and is expected to be approved by the heads of state later Wednesday. At the time of writing, it was unclear whether China was among the nations condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    An official, who is following the high-level discussions in Indonesia and preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the talks, told CNBC that “the ambiguity is there for a reason” — refraining to confirm if Beijing was among the “most members” group condemning the Kremlin.

    The same official added that the G-20 “narrative is progressing because we see the consequences of the war.” “A few months ago, it would have not been possible to reach such agreement,” the source said.

    In recognition of the differences of opinion, the joint statement also said: “There were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”

    Russia has dubbed its invasion of Ukraine as a “special operation” aimed at “demilitarizing” its neighbor. Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said Tuesday that Western countries were making the G-20 declaration politicized, according to Russian state media.

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  • Biden steps into G20 aiming to unite leaders in opposition to Russia’s war on Ukraine | CNN Politics

    Biden steps into G20 aiming to unite leaders in opposition to Russia’s war on Ukraine | CNN Politics

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    Bali, Indonesia
    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden is confronting competing issues at home and abroad while he’s at the Group of 20 Summit in Bali this week, using the moment on the world’s stage to lean into international support for condemning Russia’s aggression while also facing the prospect of hearing Donald Trump announce his next run for the presidency.

    Administration officials previewing Biden’s G20 summit activities have their sights set on the coalition’s efforts to voice its opposition against the war in Ukraine, which could send a powerful signal amongst a group that’s so far had fragmented approaches to the Kremlin’s aggression.

    This marks the first time the group has gathered in-person since the start of the invasion, and most G20 members are expected to sign onto a statement condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine “and the human suffering it has caused both for Ukrainians and for families in the developing world that are facing food and fuel insecurity as a result,” a senior administration official said.

    Such an expression of condemnation has been the work of months of diplomacy between G20 leaders. However, it’s not clear yet exactly which countries will sign onto the declaration.

    Although the G20 is comprised of world powers who have long backed Ukraine during the war, it also includes other nations that have been tepid in their response to Russia’s aggression – including India, China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, the host of this year’s summit. The coalition, which is broadly focused on the global economy, also includes Russia itself. But Russian President Vladimir Putin is not making an appearance at the summit this year.

    Since the spring, US officials have anticipated a showdown at this year’s G20 over the war. Biden has stated Russia should no longer be a member of the bloc, though expelling Moscow would require support from all of the G20’s members.

    As of now, no official “family photo” is listed on a schedule, a sign of the deep acrimony within the G20 spurred by the war in Ukraine.

    The president’s diplomatic Tuesday – a day working alongside leaders that’s capped off with a gala dinner – is expected to precede a 2024 presidential campaign announcement by Biden’s predecessor, Trump, from the other side of the world. The prospective announcement would set the stage for a two-year battle for the American presidency, having the power to cast a shadow over Biden’s efforts to unify world leaders – some already personally stung by Trump’s nationalist approach.

    Biden and his team have already spent time during his multi-leg, cross-continental trip abroad addressing domestic politics, suggesting the issue has not only loomed on their minds, but also among their foreign counterparts in meetings throughout their travels.

    On Sunday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that “many leaders” at the ASEAN Summit addressed the midterms with Biden, that many leaders were “following them closely” and that the president now feels he has a strong position on the international stage.

    Vote counts for midterm races last Tuesday continue to trickle in, with Democrats only securing their continued majority in the US Senate this past weekend and the future of the US House of Representatives remaining up in the air. But Biden – who has frequently cast the US’ dynamic with other world powers as a global fight between democracy and autocracy – brought up the political headwinds working in his favor on Monday in Bali after he took part in a roughly three-hour meeting with Xi Jinping.

    At a news conference after his meeting with Xi, Biden sought to cast the election results seen so far as a victory for the future of American democracy – a matter he had said was at stake at the polls.

    “The American people proved once again that democracy is who we are. There was a strong rejection of election deniers at every level from those seeking to lead our states and those seeking to serve in congress and also those seeking to oversee the elections,” Biden said at the start of his remarks after the Xi meeting.

    On Tuesday, Biden will participate in working sessions and a luncheon with leaders at the summit. He’ll also co-host an event on the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, which the White House said “aims to mobilize $600 billion in the next five years with G7 partners to deliver sustainable infrastructure and advance U.S. national security and economic security interests.” The president will later meet with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy and end the night at a gala dinner.

    The meeting with Meloni will be Biden’s first chance to confer the new Italian prime minister in person since she took office in October – when she became the country’s most far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.

    The two leaders undoubtedly have differences on LGBT rights, abortion rights and immigration policies. But they’re expected to focus on shared interests – in particular, their support of Ukraine. According to the White House, Biden and Meloni will discuss “cooperation on shared global challenges, including those posed by the People’s Republic of China, and our ongoing efforts to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression.”

    The global infrastructure initiative event follows a launch in 2021 amongst G7 partners to better position the US and its allies to compete with China.

    China’s Belt and Road Initiative, first announced in 2013 under Xi, aims to build ports, roads and railways to create new trade corridors linking China to Africa and the rest of Eurasia. The Chinese-funded, cross-continental infrastructure initiative has been seen as an extension of the country’s sharp ascent to global power.

    At the summit, Biden is also expected to “speak to energy security as a core issue facing the global economy,” calling for a price cap as a “key way that we can help to preserve global energy security.”

    Other topics at the summit, the senior administration official said, include economic coordination, climate change, and the Covid-19 pandemic, with new announcements expected on digital infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific and solar power in Honduras.

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  • Biden holds high-stakes talks with China’s president

    Biden holds high-stakes talks with China’s president

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    Biden holds high-stakes talks with China’s president – CBS News


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    President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s highly anticipated meeting lasted more than three hours at the G20 summit in Indonesia. Tensions over trade, Taiwan and the war in Ukraine loomed over their first face-to-face encounter, but both leaders said they’re committed to improving relations. Nancy Cordes is in Bali with more.

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  • Ukrainians celebrate in Kherson after Russian troops retreat

    Ukrainians celebrate in Kherson after Russian troops retreat

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    Ukrainians celebrate in Kherson after Russian troops retreat – CBS News


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    CBS News foreign correspondent Chris Livesay went to the recently liberated Ukrainian city of Kherson, where people are celebrating after Russia’s withdrawal. He spoke with a man whose family home was occupied by about 40 Russian soldiers for months. He said he asked them to leave, and was ordered by the soldiers to dig his own grave.

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  • UN General Assembly calls for Russian reparations to Ukraine

    UN General Assembly calls for Russian reparations to Ukraine

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    UNITED NATIONS — The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution Monday calling for Russia to be held accountable for violating international law by invading Ukraine including by paying reparations for widespread damage to the country and for Ukrainians killed and injured during the war.

    The vote in the 193-member world body was 94-14 with 73 abstentions. It was close to the lowest level of support of the five Ukraine-related resolutions adopted by the General Assembly since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of its smaller neighbor.

    The resolution recognizes the need to establish “an international mechanism for reparation for damage, loss or injury’” arising from Russia’s “wrongful acts” against Ukraine.

    It recommends that the assembly’s member nations, in cooperation with Ukraine, create “an international register” to document claims and information on damage, loss or injury to Ukrainians and the government caused by Russia.

    Before the vote, Ukraine’s U.N. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya told the assembly that “Russia has tried its best to destroy Ukraine — in a very literal sense.”

    He cited Russia’s bombing and shelling of cities and villages since day one, “targeting everything from plants and factories to residential buildings, schools, hospitals and kindergartens” as well as roads, bridges, railways and almost half of Ukraine’s power grid and utilities in the last month alone. He also cited accounts of atrocities committed by Russians in territory it occupied including murder, rape, torture, forced deportations and looting.

    “Ukraine will have the daunting task of rebuilding the country and recovering from this war,” Kyslytsya said. “But that recovery will never be complete without a sense of justice for the victims of the Russian war.”

    “It is time to hold Russia accountable,” he said.

    Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia urged assembly members to vote against the resolution, calling it “an attempt to legalize something that from the view of existing international law cannot be legalized.” It is “legally null and void,” he said.

    Nebenzia accused the West of “doing everything it can to provide a veneer of legitimacy” to start spending frozen — or actually “stolen Russian assets amounting to billions of dollars.” And he accused the West of seeking a General Assembly decision “as a screen to hide this open robbery” whose “beneficiaries will end up being the Western military corporations.”

    He warned that approval of the resolution “can only increase tension and instability in the entire world,” and said supporters of the resolution “will become implicated in illegal expropriation of sovereign assets of a third country.”

    Russia’s veto power in the 15-member Security Council has blocked the U.N.’s most powerful body from taking any action since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion. But there are no vetoes in the General Assembly, which previously adopted four resolutions criticizing Russia’s invasion.

    Unlike Security Council resolutions, General Assembly resolutions are not legally binding, but they do reflect world opinion and have demonstrated widespread opposition to Russia’s military action.

    The resolution adopted Monday was sponsored by Canada, Guatemala, Netherlands and Ukraine and co-sponsored by dozens of others.

    It reaffirms the General Assembly’s commitment to Ukraine’s “sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity” and reiterates its demand for Russia to immediately “cease its use of force against Ukraine” and withdraw all its forces from Ukrainian territory.

    It also expresses “grave concern at the loss of life, civilian displacement, destruction of infrastructure and natural resources, loss of public and private property, and economic calamity caused by the Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine.”

    The resolution recalls that Article 14 of the U.N. Charter authorizes the General Assembly to “recommend measures for the peaceful adjustment of any situation … which it deems likely to impair the general welfare of friendly relations among nations” including violations of the Charter.

    It also refers to a General Assembly resolution adopted on Dec. 16, 2005, titled “Basic Principles and Guidelines on the Right to a Remedy and Reparation for Victims of Gross Violations of International Human Rights Law and Serious Violations of International Humanitarian Law.”

    Soon after Russia’s invasion, the General Assembly adopted its first resolution on March 2 demanding an immediate Russian cease-fire, withdrawal of all its troops and protection for all civilians by a vote of 141-5 with 35 abstentions.

    On March 24, the assembly voted 140-5 with 38 abstentions on a resolution blaming Russia for Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis and urging an immediate cease-fire and protection for millions of civilians and the homes, schools and hospitals critical to their survival.

    Monday’s vote was close to the lowest vote for a Ukraine resolution: The assembly voted 93-24 with 58 abstentions on April 7 to suspend Russia from the U.N.’s Geneva-based Human Rights Council over allegations Russian soldiers in Ukraine engaged in rights violations that the United States and Ukraine have called war crimes.

    The assembly voted overwhelmingly by its highest margin — 143-5 with 35 abstentions — on Oct. 12 to condemn Russia’s “attempted illegal annexation” of four Ukrainian regions and demand its immediate reversal, a sign of strong global opposition to the seven-month war and Moscow’s attempt to grab its neighbor’s territory.

    The vote in the 193-member world body was 143-5 with 35 abstentions. It was the strongest support from the General Assembly for Ukraine and against Russia of the four resolutions it has approved since Russian troops invaded Ukraine Feb. 24.

    ———

    This story corrects that the vote was close to the lowest but not the lowest for a Russia-Ukraine resolution.

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  • Biden in Bali for G20 summit: What to know and what to watch for

    Biden in Bali for G20 summit: What to know and what to watch for

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    President Biden is in Bali, Indonesia, on Monday along with the leaders of many of the world’s biggest economies to attend the two-day G20 summit. The summit, which starts Tuesday, will see presidents and prime ministers wrangle over solutions to a litany of crises from the raging war in Ukraine to tension between the U.S. and China, soaring inflation and hunger, and the threat of a global recession.

    As many of the leaders were arriving in Bali fresh from the United Nations’ COP27 climate conference, the rapid warming of the planet will also be a key theme.

    Below is a quick look at what to know and what to watch for during the summit in Bali.

    What is the G20?

    The Group of Twenty nations, or “G20,” is an informal organization of countries formed in 1999 to help formulate economic policy.

    It is made up of the world’s largest and emerging economies, which together account for 80% of global economic output, 75% of world trade, and about 60% of the world’s population. Those nations are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Spain is invited as a permanent guest and, this year, Ukraine was also invited to attend.

    The annual leadership of the G20 rotates among the members, with Indonesia in the driver’s seat this year and thus hosting the gathering.

    INDONESIA-US-G20-SUMMIT
    President Joe Biden and Indonesian President Joko Widodo meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022.

    SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty


    President Biden arrived in Indonesia on Sunday night for a three-day stay in the country. The White House said his priorities would include “climate change, the global impact of Putin’s war on Ukraine, including on energy and food security and affordability, and a range of other priorities important to the global economic recovery and building a sustainable and inclusive global economy.”

    Mr. Biden met on Monday morning with Indonesian President Joko Widodo and expressed support for Indonesia’s leadership in the Indo-Pacific as the world’s third largest democracy and a strong proponent of the international rules-based order.”

    The G20’s size leaves more room for internal disagreement than, for instance, the Group of Seven biggest economies. The G20 has among its members some staunch adversaries, which can bring tension and acrimony, but also an opportunity for senior government figures to discuss, and theoretically even resolve, some of the pressing issues fueling conflicts and crises.

    Biden and Xi talk “red lines”

    One of the most anticipated direct encounters of the week was Mr. Biden’s sit-down meeting on Monday with China’s President Xi Jinping — their first in-person meeting since Mr. Biden came to office.  

    Mr. Biden and Xi shook hands before giving brief remarks to reporters, vowing to “manage” their nations’ differences without resorting to military escalation. Then they headed behind closed doors.

    President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at G20 Summit in Bali
    U.S. President Joe Biden (R) and China’s President Xi Jinping (L) meet on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian resort island of Bali on November 14, 2022.

    SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images


    “What I want to do with him when we talk is lay out what each of our red lines are and understand what he believes to be in the critical national interests of China, what I know to be the critical interests of the United States, and to determine whether or not they conflict with one another.”

    The issue of Taiwan, and China’s ambition to exert control over the self-governing island, would be on the agenda, the White House confirmed.

    “A war over Taiwan is no longer unthinkable, but it is by no means inevitable,” China expert Jessica Chen Weiss wrote in Foreign Affairs, arguing that more deterrence along with more engagement were needed to redefine the rivalry.


    Defending Taiwan | CBS Reports

    23:11

    Mr. Biden’s meeting with Xi comes just weeks after his administration’s decision to block the export of advanced computer chips from the U.S. to China. 

    The Russia-Ukraine war

    One G20 leader who was to be notably absent from this week’s summit is Russian President Vladimir Putin. More than eight months after Russia launched a full-scale ground invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Putin’s army has been dealt a series of humiliating blows, but commanders on both sides appear to be bracing for a long winter of grinding warfare.


    Ukraine celebrates regaining Kherson region

    02:01

    The U.S. and Russia have held back-channel discussions on the crisis and supported a U.N.-brokered deal to keep Russian and Ukrainian grain flowing from ports to ease the global food crisis fueled by the war. But as the leaders gathered in Bali, there was no indication that any real peace talks were about to start.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, a veteran diplomat, was attending the G20 summit in place of Putin.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was to address the summit virtually, the Indonesian foreign ministry said, and the Russian embassy in Indonesia did not rule out that Putin might also address the assembly via video link.

    “The G20 countries’ positions on the war in Ukraine contrast starkly, yet the conflict raises issues of global concern — economic shocks and nuclear risks — that the leaders cannot pass over in silence,” the nonprofit International Crisis Group wrote in a message to the leaders before the meeting.

    Economic recovery and climate change 

    “The crisis in access to food, energy and finance will be my top priority,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said ahead of the G20 summit, warning that “the COVID-19 pandemic, impacts of the war in Ukraine seen in the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions and unsustainable debt burdens, along with the escalating climate emergency, are wreaking havoc on economies across the globe.” 

    The U.N. climate summit, or COP27, continues in Egypt until November 18. Before his bilateral meeting with Xi, Mr. Biden said, “the world expects, I believe, China and the United States to play key roles in addressing global challenges, from climate changes, to food insecurity, and to — for us to be able to work together.”

    At COP27, Mr. Biden told delegates that his administration’s actions put the U.S. on track to achieve the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement by reducing emissions by 2030, and he pledged to continue to provide over $11 billion annually for international climate finance by 2024.

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  • Uganda’s President Museveni slams ‘Western double standards’ over Germany coal mine plans | CNN

    Uganda’s President Museveni slams ‘Western double standards’ over Germany coal mine plans | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni has slammed Western countries over what he calls a “reprehensible double standard” in their response to the energy crisis brought about by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    In a Twitter post on Sunday, Museveni singled out Germany for demolishing wind turbines to allow for the expansion of a coal-fueled power plant as Europe battles an energy crisis triggered by the Russia/Ukraine war.

    In September, Russia which had come under a raft of Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, halted gas supplies to Europe, leaving the region that was dependent on Russian oil and gas imports scampering for alternatives.

    Germany had proposed phasing out coal-fired power plants by 2030 to reduce carbon emissions. But Europe’s largest economy has now been forced to prioritize energy security over clean energy as gas supplies from Russia froze. Just like Germany, many other European countries are reviving coal projects as alternatives to Russian energy.

    Museveni, 78, says Europe’s switch to coal-based power generation “makes a mockery” of the West’s climate targets.

    “News from Europe that a vast wind farm is being demolished to make way for a new open-pit coal mine is the reprehensible double standard we in Africa have come to expect. It makes a mockery of Western commitments to climate targets,” the Ugandan leader said, while further describing the move as “the purest hypocrisy.”

    CNN has contacted the German Embassy in Uganda for comment.

    In a statement released on his official website, Museveni stated that “Europe’s failure to meet its climate goals should not be Africa’s problem.”

    The African continent has remained the most vulnerable to climate change despite having the lowest emissions and contributing the least to global warming. While wealthy nations (who are the largest emission producers) are better equipped to manage the impacts of climate change, poorer countries like those in Africa are not.

    “We will not accept one rule for them and another rule for us,” said Museveni, who has ruled the east African nation for 36 years.

    Uganda aims to explore its oil reserves at a commercial level in the next three years but a resolution by the European Union parliament in September warned that the project will displace thousands, jeopardize water resources and endanger protected marine areas.

    Museveni reacted to the resolution at the time, insisting that “the project shall proceed,” and threatened to find new contractors if the current handlers of the oil project “choose to listen to the EU Parliament.”

    African leaders have continued to push richer nations for climate adaptation funding at the ongoing COP27 climate summit in Egypt, as many parts of the continent grapple with severe drought, flooding, and other catastrophic effects of climate change.

    Malawi’s President Lazarus Chakwera, who is attending the COP27 summit, said his country and other poorer nations “continue to carry the weight of carbon emissions from biggest polluters elsewhere.”

    Chakwera said he lobbied in Egypt for more climate funding from wealthier nations, adding: “Despite our marginal contribution to global warming, we continue to bear the brunt of worsening climate change impacts, with 10% of our economic losses being occasioned by disasters.”

    A pledge by developed countries to pay $100 billion every year from 2020 to help the developing world switch from fossil fuels to clean energy has yet to be fulfilled.

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  • The G-20 summit kicks off Tuesday. Here’s what to expect.

    The G-20 summit kicks off Tuesday. Here’s what to expect.

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    Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani (C front) attends the G20 Finance Ministers Meeting in Nusa Dua, on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali, on July 16, 2022.

    SONNY TUMBELAKA | POOL | AFP via Getty Images

    World leaders are kicking off a meeting Tuesday on the holiday island of Bali, Indonesia as the global economy grapples with a looming recession, central banks’ jumbo rate hikes and historically high inflation.

    The annual meeting of leaders from the world’s major economies, known as the Group of 20 nations, is also taking place as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and relations between Washington and Beijing remain tense.

    The gathering of officials that represent more than 80% of global GDP and 75% of exports worldwide marks the 17th meeting since the the platform kicked off after the Asian financial crisis in 1999 as a meeting for finance ministry officials and central bank leaders.

    Who’s attending?

    Nineteen countries and one economic region, the European Union, will attend this year’s two-day G-20 meeting.

    This year’s in-person attendee list has been in the spotlight as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues his unprovoked war in Ukraine.

    Putin will not be attending the summit and will instead be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who walked out of a G-20 foreign minister meeting in July as his global counterparts called for an end to the war in Ukraine. Reuters reported Putin may join virtually.

    U.S. President Joe Biden is also scheduled to hold a bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping ahead of the G-20.

    Other attendees include newly appointed U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman, who recently led an OPEC+ initiative to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day to shore up prices.

    Expectations are ‘not very high’

    Not much progress is expected from Biden and Xi’s meeting, according to Andrew Staples, Asia Pacific director of Economist Impact, the policy and insights arm of The Economist Group.

    “Expectations are not very high,” he told CNBC’s Martin Soong, adding that ongoing geopolitical tensions are dragging down global growth. He highlighted China’s stance on the war in Ukraine as one of many signs of eroding relations between the U.S. and China.

    “There’s a lot of concern for the business community globally that these geopolitical tensions is impacting negatively … we have in Ukraine, which China has been unfortunately been somewhat ambivalent about when it comes to President Putin, is really damaging the global economy,” he said.

    “Finding some floor to this relationship — which is what Biden is looking to do — will be a positive, not only for the business community but for the global economic sentiment as well,” he said.

    The role of Russia

    Russia’s latest move to constantly flip its stance on the United Nations-led Black Sea Grain initiative is “likely to overshadow all other negotiations in Bali,” Laura von Daniels, head of the Americas research at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said in a Council on Foreign Relations report.

    The agreement, reached earlier this year, sought to ease Russia’s naval blockade and reopen key Ukrainian ports to deliver crops through a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea. It expires on Nov. 19.

    “To agree would not cost Russia anything,” said von Daniels. “It would, though, allow both Xi and Putin — as leaders of authoritarian states — to be applauded on the world stage for providing food security.”

    Reopening strategy

    The meeting takes place as a vast majority of the world reopens borders and lifts Covid-related restrictions — leaning into the post-pandemic era with its slogan, “Recover Together, Recover Stronger.”

    Members agreed that “policy stimulus needs to be withdrawn appropriately during the recovery,” the Indonesia G-20 Presidency said in a July note released ahead of the meeting. It referred to a survey of member states that it conducted.

    It said the potential for longer-lasting impact from the coronavirus pandemic on global growth would be a key topic of the meetings taking place in November.

    “Risks stemming from supply disruption, rising inflation, and weak investment are the top three risks to be addressed urgently in relation to scarring from the pandemic,” it said, highlighting the need for global cooperation including the gradual reopening of borders to support revival of trade.

    “We’ve all got some version of an inflation problem and rising interest rates as well, so the whole world has an interest in making progress here,” Australia Treasurer Jim Chalmers told CNBC’s Martin Soong. “Conditions are high risk and they are volatile,” he said.

    The more engagement we see between the U.S. and China, the better, says Australia treasurer

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  • Easily In Range Of Ukrainian Artillery, Kherson’s Airport Was A Death Trap For Russian Troops

    Easily In Range Of Ukrainian Artillery, Kherson’s Airport Was A Death Trap For Russian Troops

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    Three days after the Kremlin ordered its starving, battered forces to retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian troops liberated the international airport in the oblast.

    No one should be surprised at what the Ukrainians discovered at Chornobaivka Airport, on the northern edge of Kherson city six miles north of the river.

    The airport for months had been a veritable shooting gallery for Ukrainian artillery. And many of the victims of the months-long bombardment—wrecked tanks, trucks and radars—still were at the Chornobaivka when the Ukrainian vanguard entered the airport.

    Invading Russian troops captured Chornobaivka Airport on Feb. 27, just three days into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. The Russian armed forces converted the airport into a major base for the 8th and 49th Combined Arms Armies and other formations comprising the Russian garrison in Kherson Oblast.

    Helicopter regiments set up shop on the tarmac. Engineers dug revetments for scores of armored vehicles. There were huge supply dumps. Headquarters facilities hosted several top generals and their staffs.

    There was one problem, however. Chornobaivka Airport lies just 23 miles south of Mykolaiv. And the Russian offensive north of Kherson ground to a halt well short of Mykolaiv, leaving the airport firmly within range of the Ukrainian army’s artillery and rockets—to say nothing of the Ukrainian air force’s TB-2 drones.

    So that huge concentration of troops and vehicles at Chornobaivka Airport became arguably the biggest, and easiest, target for Ukrainian gunners for six months until the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that ultimately liberated Kherson Oblast right of the Dnipro.

    The first Ukrainian strike on the airport—by TB-2s firing laser-guided missiles—came with hours of Russian forces occupying the facility. Two weeks later, Ukrainian artillery bombarded the tarmac. A week after that, on March 16, Ukrainian gunners hit the tarmac again and destroyed at least seven Russian helicopters.

    After the March 16 raid, the Russians pulled their aircraft from the airport. But ground forces remained at the airport. And in strikes on March 18 and March 24, Ukrainian gunners killed two generals—one each from the 8th and 49th CAAs. “We caught them again in Chornobaivka,” chortled Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.

    And so it went for the next five months. Every couple of weeks, Chornobaivka Airport erupted in flames. But Russian troops clung to the airport just like they clung to the rest of Kherson Oblast. Even as their front-line strength bled away and their logistics frayed.

    After months of preparatory bombardment, Ukrainian brigades in late August launched a broad counteroffensive across the Kherson front. The Ukrainians steadily advanced, taking a lot of casualties but likely inflicting far more casualties on the exhausted Russians.

    The end, when it came, was swift. The Kremlin on Wednesday ordered its forces right of the Dnipro to consolidate on the opposite bank of the wide river. That meant leaving Kherson city and Chornobaivka Airport.

    Two days later, the Russians were gone.

    The Ukrainian troops who cautiously entered the airport on Saturday discovered a veritable junkyard of wrecked Russian equipment, including at least one T-62 tank, several BMD fighting vehicles, Ural trucks, two Msta-B howitzers, a Buk air-defense system, a Zhitel radio-jammer and a Podlet-K1 radar.

    There also were two unflyable Ukrainian army helicopters—an Mi-8 and an Mi-24—that the Ukrainians had abandoned at the airport back in February and still were intact, if badly in need of maintenance, nine months later.

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    David Axe, Forbes Staff

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  • Putin’s Atrocities In Ukraine – Crimes With A Name

    Putin’s Atrocities In Ukraine – Crimes With A Name

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    On November 14, 2022, the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, the U.S. Helsinki Commission, will host a briefing on the issue of Russia’s genocide in Ukraine. The briefing comes months after Rep. Steve Cohen introduced House Resolution 1205 on recognizing Russian actions in Ukraine as a genocide and a similar resolution was tabled before Senate by Sen. James E. Risch, Senate Resolution 713. Several months later, the resolutions have not been agreed yet.

    Do Putin’s atrocities amount to genocide?

    Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention) defines genocide as any of the prohibited acts such as “(a) killing members of the group; (b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; (d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) forcibly transferring children of the group to another group” committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group.

    In May 2022, Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights and New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy published a legal analysis of Putin’s atrocities against the definition in Article II of the Genocide Convention. The report, which is supported by 35 international experts on genocide and atrocity crimes, makes two important findings of the direct and public incitement to commit genocide and of the existence of a serious risk of genocide in Ukraine.

    Among others, the analysis examines the issue of Russia’s State-orchestrated incitement to genocide, including evidence of the denial of the existence of a Ukrainian identity, accusation in a mirror (namely, Russia accusing Ukraine of planning, or having committed atrocities), dehumanization, construction of Ukrainians as an existential threat.

    The analysis further engages with evidence of genocidal intent and genocidal pattern of destruction targeting Ukrainians including mass killings, deliberate attacks on shelters, evacuation routes, and humanitarian corridors, indiscriminate bombardment of residential areas, deliberate and systematic infliction of life-threatening conditions (destruction of vital infrastructure, attacks on health care, destruction and seizure of necessities, humanitarian aid, and grain), rape and sexual violence, and forcible transfer of Ukrainians. The report cites a litany of open source data in relation to both findings, including evidence of mass killings, torture, the use of rape and sexual violence, and deportations of children to Russia, among others.

    As more and more evidence of the atrocities comes to light, there is more engagement from Parliaments and governments on the issue of Putin’s genocide in Ukraine.

    Most recently, in October 2022, Lord Alton of Liverpool, Peer at the U.K. House of Commons, said that the atrocities perpetrated by Putin in Ukraine can be classified as genocide: “2022 has shown us that atrocity crimes, and possibly even genocide, may well be happening on European soil in Ukraine. (…) Since Putin’s illegal war on Ukraine began on February 24, evidence of atrocity crimes, be it war crimes, crimes against humanity and even possible genocide, has accumulated.”

    While the House and Senate resolutions are yet to be agreed, as early as April 2022, President Biden suggested that Putin’s atrocities amount to genocide. As Biden said, “I called it genocide because it has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of being able to be Ukrainian and the evidence is mounting.” However, a formal determination by the U.S. State Department did not follow. In the last few years, the U.S. State Department has made such determinations in the cases of the Daesh atrocities in Iraq, the Burmese military’s atrocities in Myanmar, the Chinese Communist Party’s atrocities in Xinjiang. Such a determination is not unlikely to follow. Indeed, the situation in Ukraine is already featuring in the 2022 Report to Congress Pursuant to Section 5 of the Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018.

    The atrocities in Ukraine must be recognized for what they are. However, the determination is not to be an end in itself but a trigger to more action, including in accordance to Article I of the Genocide Convention: to prevent and to punish the crime of genocide. Furthermore, and more importantly, the duty to prevent genocide is not to be triggered when we are sure that the atrocities amount to genocide. No. As explained by the International Court of Justice, the duty to prevent is to be triggered “at the instant that the State learns of, or should normally have learned of, the existence of a serious risk that genocide will be committed.” As such, at minimum, States must conduct an analysis of the serious risk of genocide and this to inform their responses, including, in accordance with the Genocide Convention.

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    Dr. Ewelina U. Ochab, Contributor

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  • Amid the war ruins in Ukraine, Banksy seeds art

    Amid the war ruins in Ukraine, Banksy seeds art

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    BORODYANKA, Ukraine — Amid the ruins of war, the flowerings of art.

    A delicate painting of a gymnast doing a handstand has popped up on the wall of a wrecked building outside of Kyiv and appears to be the work of the British graffiti artist known as Banksy.

    Banksy posted photos on his Instagram page of the artwork in Borodyanka, northwest of Ukraine’s capital.

    The town was the target of shelling and fighting in the early stages of the Russian invasion, which turned apartment buildings into charred, bombed-out hulks.

    The mural of the gymnast is in black and white and is painted so she looks like she is doing her handstand on the crumpled remains of concrete blocks that poke out of the blackened wall. Towering above her are the gutted, blown-apart innards of what were once apartments.

    Another mural in the town — of a small boy doing a judo throw on a man — also looked like it might be Banksy’s, although that wasn’t posted on his Instagram page.

    President Vladimir Putin of Russia is a judo practitioner.

    A Banksy-like painting, also in black and white and again not confirmed as his by Banksy himself, also appeared on the wall of a war-damaged building in the town of Irpin, on Kyiv’s northwestern outskirts.

    It shows a rhythmic gymnast doing a pirouette with a ribbon, over a gaping hole in the wall.

    ———

    Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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  • Jubilant Kherson residents hug liberating soldiers — but know Russians are still just over the river | CNN

    Jubilant Kherson residents hug liberating soldiers — but know Russians are still just over the river | CNN

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    Kherson, Ukraine
    CNN
     — 

    Once the scene of Russian occupation, the drive into newly liberated Kherson city was eerily quiet.

    For much of the journey through smaller towns and settlements, our team of CNN journalists was forced to drive through diversions and fields: bridges over canals were blown up, and roads were full of craters and littered with anti-tank mines.

    Trenches and checkpoints were empty, quickly abandoned by Russians who on Friday announced they had withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnipro River in the strategic southern region of Kherson, leaving the regional capital of the same name and surrounding areas to the Ukrainians.

    The outskirts of the city, which had been occupied by Russian forces since March 3, were deserted, with no military presence except for a Ukrainian checkpoint around 5 miles outside of the city center, where half a dozen soldiers waved CNN’s crew in.

    Billboards around the city that once read “Ukraine is Russian forever” have reportedly been spray-painted over with the message: “Ukraine was Russia’s until November 11.”

    The city’s residents have no water, no internet connection and little power. But as a CNN crew entered the city center on Saturday, the mood was euphoric.

    Once the scene of large protests against Russian plans to transform the region into a breakaway pro-Russian republic, the streets of Kherson are now filled with jubilant residents wrapped in Ukrainian flags, or with painted faces, singing and shouting.

    The military presence is still limited, but huge cheers erupt from crowds on the street every time a truck full of soldiers drives past, with Ukrainian soldiers being offered soup, bread, flowers, hugs and kisses by elated passersby.

    As CNN’s crew stopped to regroup, we observed an old man and an old woman hugging a young soldier, with hands on the soldier’s shoulder, exchanging excited “thank yous.”

    Residents of Kherson temporarily living in Odessa, holding Ukrainian flags, celebrate the liberation of their native town on Saturday.

    After living under Russian occupation, every person we’ve spoken to has had experiences that have terrified them: earlier today, a teenager told CNN he had been taken and beaten by Russian soldiers who believed he was a spy. Residents told us they are emotionally exhausted, and overwhelmed by what this new-found freedom means.

    With the occupiers gone, everyone wants you to understand what they’ve been through, how euphoric they feel right now, and how much they’re grateful to the countries who have helped them.

    But Ukrainians are under no illusion that Kherson’s freedom spells the end of their country’s ordeal, or the difficulties that winter will bring.

    Everyone we have spoken to is aware that there are tougher days to come: that the Russians across the river could shell them here. It is also unclear whether all Russian troops have left Kherson and the wider region. Behind this euphoria, there’s still that uncertainty.

    But for today, at least, they’re celebrating.

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  • Photos: Police, media return to Kherson after Russian retreat

    Photos: Police, media return to Kherson after Russian retreat

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    Ukrainian police officers have returned – along with TV and radio services – to the southern city of Kherson following the withdrawal of Russian troops.

    The deployment is part of fast-but-cautious efforts to make the only regional capital captured by Russia habitable after months of occupation. One official has described the city as “a humanitarian catastrophe”.

    People across Ukraine awoke from a night of jubilant celebrating on Sunday after the Kremlin announced its troops had withdrawn to the other side of the Dnieper River from Kherson.

    The Ukrainian military said it was overseeing “stabilisation measures” around the city to make sure it was safe.

    The Russian retreat represented a significant setback for the Kremlin some six weeks after President Vladimir Putin annexed the Kherson region and three other provinces in southern and eastern Ukraine – in breach of international law – and declared them Russian territory.

    About 200 officers were at work in the city, setting up checkpoints and documenting evidence of possible war crimes. Police teams were working to identify and neutralise unexploded ordnance.

    Ukraine’s communications watchdog said national TV and radio broadcasts had resumed and an adviser to Kherson’s mayor said humanitarian aid and supplies had begun to arrive from the neighbouring Mykolaiv region.

    But the adviser, Roman Holovnya, described the situation in Kherson as “a humanitarian catastrophe”. He said the remaining residents lacked water, medicine and food — and key basics such as bread went unbaked because of a lack of electricity.

    “The occupiers and collaborators did everything possible so that those people who remained in the city suffered as much as possible over those days, weeks, months of waiting” for Ukraine’s forces to arrive, Holovnya said. “Water supplies are practically nonexistent.”

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  • Ukraine celebrates regaining Kherson region

    Ukraine celebrates regaining Kherson region

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    Ukraine celebrates regaining Kherson region – CBS News


    Watch CBS News



    Newly-liberated residents in Kherson are showering Ukrainian soldiers with praise after spending several months under Russian occupation. However, Ukrainian officials remain worried that Russians could blow up a nearby dam, causing harm to many civilians. Chris Livesay has more.

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  • Biden and Xi return to the table with high stakes — and low expectations | CNN

    Biden and Xi return to the table with high stakes — and low expectations | CNN

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    Bali, Indonesia
    CNN
     — 

    When Joe Biden and Xi Jinping first got to know each other more than 10 years ago, the US and China had been moving closer for three decades despite their differences.

    “The trajectory of the relationship is nothing but positive, and it’s overwhelmingly in the mutual interest of both our countries,” Biden said in 2011 when, as vice president, he visited Beijing to build a personal relationship with China’s then leader-in-waiting.

    Seated next to Xi in a Beijing hotel, Biden told a room of Chinese and American business leaders about his “great optimism about the next 30 years” for bilateral relations and praised Xi for being “straightforward.”

    “Only friends and equals can serve each other by being straightforward and honest with them,” he said.

    On Monday, the two leaders are set to meet each other for another honest exchange in Bali, Indonesia, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit. But the mood in the room is unlikely to be as balmy as the surrounding location.

    The positivity and optimism of a decade ago has been replaced by mutual suspicion and hostility. When Biden returned to the White House as President, he was handed a US-China relationship in its worst shape in decades, with tensions flaring across trade, technology, geopolitics and ideology.

    The upcoming meeting – the first in-person encounter between Biden and Xi since the US President took office – comes at a crucial time for both leaders. Having further consolidated his power at last month’s Communist Party Congress, Xi is heading into the meeting as the strongest Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. Biden, meanwhile, arrived in Asia following a better-than-expected performance by his party in the US midterm elections – with the Democrats projected to keep the Senate in a major victory.

    The stakes of their much-anticipated encounter are high. In a world reeling from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic and the devastation of climate change, the two major powers need to work together more than ever to instill stability – instead of driving deeper tensions along geopolitical fault lines.

    But expectations for the meeting are low. Locked in an intensifying great power rivalry, the US and China disagree with each other on just about every major issue, from Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, North Korea, the transfer of technology to the shape of the international system.

    Perhaps the only real common ground the two sides share going into the meeting is their limited hopes for what might come out of it.

    A senior White House official said Thursday Biden wants to use the talks to “build a floor” for the relationship – in other words, to prevent it from free falling into open conflict. The main objective of the sit-down is not about reaching agreements or deliverables – the two leaders will not release any joint statement afterward – but about gaining a better understanding of each other’s priorities and reducing misconceptions, according to the US official.

    US national security adviser Jake Sullivan reinforced the message Saturday to reporters aboard Air Force One, noting the meeting is unlikely to result in any major breakthroughs or dramatic shifts in the relationship.

    Hopes for a reset with Washington are similarly low in Beijing. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said it would be an “enormous over-expectation” to believe the meeting can lead to any lasting and significant improvement in bilateral ties.

    “Given that China and the US are in a state of near-total rivalry and confrontation, there is not much possibility to anticipate that the major issues can be truly clarified,” Shi said.

    US President Joe Biden has spoken with Chinese leader Xi Jinping five times over the phone or video call since taking office in January 2020.

    At the center of their divergence is how the two nations view each other’s motives – and how detrimental these goals are to their own interests.

    “The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China’s goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

    Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.

    “The Chinese think they’re winning, the Americans think they’re winning, and so they’re willing to bear these costs. And they think the other side is very unlikely to make any significant changes,” Kennedy said. “All of those things reduce the likelihood of significant adjustments.”

    But experts say the very fact that the two leaders are having a face-to-face conversation is itself a positive development. Keeping dialogue open is crucial for reducing risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, especially when suspicions run deep and tensions run high.

    Direct communication is all the more important given Xi has just secured a norm-shattering third term with a tighter grip on power than ever – and a possibility to rule for life. “There is no one else in their system who can really communicate authoritatively other than Xi Jinping,” national security adviser Sullivan said.

    On Wednesday, Biden told a news conference that he wants to “lay out what each of our red lines are” when he sits down with Xi, but experts say that might not be as straightforward as it sounds.

    “I would love to be a fly on the wall to see that conversation because I don’t think that the US or China has been very precise about what its red lines are. And I also don’t think either has been very clear about what positive rewards the other side would reap from staying within those red lines,” said Kennedy, of CSIS.

    For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan – a self-governing democracy the Chinese Communist Party has never controlled. Xi views “reunification” with the island as a key unresolved issue on China’s path toward “great rejuvenation,” a sweeping vision he has vowed to achieve by 2049.

    And perhaps no American President has angered Beijing over Taiwan in recent decades more than Biden, who has said – on four separate occasions – the US will defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion. Each time, his aids have rushed to walk back his remarks and denied any changes in the US’ “One China” policy.

    Under the “One China” policy, Washington acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never accepted its claim of sovereignty over the island. The US provides Taiwan defensive weapons, but has remained deliberately vague on whether it would intervene militarily if China attacks the island – a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.”

    US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen during her visit to Taipei this August.

    China has repeatedly accused the US of “playing with fire” and hollowing out the “one China” policy. Beijing’s anger reached a boiling point in August, when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi brushed aside its stern warnings and landed in Taipei for a high-profile visit.

    China responded by launching large scale military exercises around Taiwan that formed an effective blockade; it also halted dialogue with the US in a number of areas, from military, climate change and cross-border crime to drug trafficking.

    Now the two leaders are sitting down in the same room – a result of weeks of intensive discussions between the two sides – Taiwan is widely expected to top their agenda. But in a sign of the contentiousness of the issue, barbs have already been traded.

    Biden has said he would make no “fundamental concessions” to Xi, and Sullivan has announced plans to brief Taiwan about the talks with an aim to make Taipei feel “secure and comfortable” about US support.

    That plan drew immediate condemnation from Beijing. “It is egregious in nature. China is firmly opposed to it,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said Friday, shortly after the ministry confirmed that Xi would meet Biden at the G20.

    The rocket force of China's People's Liberation Army conducts missile tests into the waters off the eastern coast of Taiwan on August 4.

    “The problem with China is they don’t like to meet and exchange views – they just repeat talking points. Xi Jinping is not very creative in the way he interacts with his counterparts,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University.

    Other key topics on the agenda include Russia’s war in Ukraine – another significant point of tension, as well as areas where the US hopes to cooperate with China – such as North Korea’s ongoing provocations and climate change.

    Shi, the Chinese expert at Renmin University, sees little room for breakthroughs on these issues.

    “On the issue of Ukraine, China has already made its position clear many times. It will not change simply because of the talks with the US President. On North Korea, since March last year, China has already stopped treating the denuclearization of North Korea as a fundamental element of its Korean Peninsular policy,” he said.

    Nor is his assessment for climate cooperation any rosier. “China and the US can find many common interests on this, but when it comes to how to deal with climate change specifically, it always leads to antagonism on policies and rivalry over ideology and global influence,” Shi said.

    Experts in the US and China say some progress on greater communication and access between the two countries will already be considered a positive outcome – such as restoring suspended climate and military talks.

    “Hopefully the meeting can be used for more than just airing mutual grievances,” said Patricia Kim, a China expert at the Brookings Institution. “For instance, a joint declaration by Biden and Xi that they oppose the threat or use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and on the Korean Peninsula, as well as a nod to restarting working-level exchanges on areas of common interest such as climate change and counter-narcotics would be promising.”

    Over the decade of their relationship, Biden and Xi have spent dozens of hours together across the US and China.

    During Biden’s getting-to-know-you trip to China in 2011, the two leaders shared a marathon of meetings and meals in Beijing and the southwestern city of Chengdu. They also took a trip deep into the green mountains of Sichuan province to visit a rural high school rebuilt after a deadly earthquake.

    The next year, Xi paid a reciprocal visit to the US at the invitation of Biden, who hosted his Chinese counterpart for dinner at his residency after a series of meetings at the White House, State Department and the Pentagon. Biden also flew to Los Angeles to meet Xi on the last leg of his trip.

    Their in-person encounters continued after Xi took power in 2012. The last time they met face to face was in 2015, during Xi’s first state visit to the US as China’s top leader.

    As relations between their countries plummeted, the once friendly dynamics between the two leaders have also shifted.

    Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, accompanied by their translators, in Chengdu, China, in 2011.

    Xi is an ideological hardliner who believes in China’s return to the center of the world stage and is skeptical – some would say hostile – toward America. Biden, meanwhile, has grown increasingly weary of China’s authoritarian turn under Xi, and has framed the rivalry between the two countries as a battle between autocracy and democracy.

    Last summer, Biden publicly pushed back on being described as an “old friend” of Xi’s.

    “Let’s get something straight. We know each other well; we’re not old friends. It’s just pure business,” he said at the time.

    Given the growing divide, the two-year gap since their last in-person meeting is an extremely long time, Kennedy pointed out.

    “One conversation on the sidelines of a multilateral summit is still insufficient to fully discuss all the key issues that the countries face. And so hopefully, the two sides will facilitate a greater discussion on these issues by many parts of the two governments.”

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  • Fly Low, Get Aggressive—How Ukrainian Pilots Fought The Russian Air Force To A Standstill

    Fly Low, Get Aggressive—How Ukrainian Pilots Fought The Russian Air Force To A Standstill

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    For all its profound faults, the Russian air force has a lot of new and highly sophisticated fighter jets. They have better sensors, weapons and defensive gear than the Ukrainian air force’s own, less numerous, fighters do.

    And yet, Ukrainian pilots in their older, cruder jets fought Russian pilots to a standstill in the early weeks of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. They did it by flying low and being more aggressive.

    Russia’s roughly 200 Sukhoi Su-30SM and Su-35S fighters, none older than a few years, “completely outclass Ukrainian air force fighter aircraft on a technical level,” Justin Bronk, Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling from the London-based Royal United Services Institute wrote in their definitive study of the Ukraine air war.

    The Su-30 and Su-35 both are derivatives of the classic, twin-engine Sukhoi Su-27, but with improved electronics and weaponry. The big difference between the two is that the Su-30 seats two. The Su-35 is a single-seat plane.

    The Russian air force around five years ago began acquiring the Su-30SM and Su-35S to replace hundreds of Soviet-vintage Su-27s and buy time for Sukhoi to continue developing and producing the new—and troubled—Su-57 stealth fighter.

    The Russian air force has deployed most of its Su-30s and Su-35s for the war in Ukraine, staging them at air bases in southwestern Russia, Belarus and occupied Crimea. At the start of the wider war in late February, the Su-30 and Su-35 regiments—along with regiments flying Sukhoi Su-34 bombers—surged their jets into the air, racking up around 140 sorties per day, according to Bronk, Reynolds and Watling.

    “Su-35S and Su-30SM fighters flew numerous high-altitude [combat air patrols] at around 30,000 feet in support of the medium-altitude Russian strike aircraft operating widely during the first three days,” the RUSI analysts explained.

    They outmatched—and also outnumbered—the Ukrainian air force’s 30-year-old Su-27s and MiG-29s. The Russian jets’ Vympel R-77-1 air-to-air missiles were a key advantage. The R-77-1 boasts active radar guidance. A pilot briefly turns on his radar, designates a target, fires a missile then switches off his radar and takes evasive action. The missile then uses its own internal radar to guide it to its target.

    By contrast, the Ukrainians’ older Vympal R-27R/ER missiles are semi-active, meaning a pilot must continuously illuminate a target as the missile closes in. He can’t go silent. He can’t turn away. What’s more, the R-77-1 ranges as far as 60 miles. The R-27’s own range usually maxes out at 50 miles.

    So Russian pilots were shooting at Ukrainian pilots from farther away than the Ukrainian pilots could shoot back—and were also capable of much more effective evasive maneuvers than the Ukrainians could pull off.

    As a result, Russian regiments quickly shot down several Ukrainian Su-27s and MiG-29s. Each loss eating away at the Ukrainian air force’s pre-war inventory of around 30 Su-27s and 50 or so MiG-29s.

    Yes, the Ukrainians eventually would replace many of these losses by restoring old, once-unflyable airframes and recalling pilots from retirement. In those heady early weeks, however, it might’ve seemed like the Russian air force was going to drive the Ukrainian air force to extinction.

    But that’s not how it turned out. Ukrainian pilots adopted new tactics—and held their own, Bronk, Reynolds and Watling wrote. “Deeply unequal radar and missile performance compared with Russian fighters, as well as being tactically outnumbered by up to 15 to two in some cases, forced Ukrainian pilots to fly extremely low to try to exploit ground clutter and terrain-masking to get close enough to fire before being engaged.”

    Ukrainian MiGs and Sukhois, flying at treetop level, would sneak up on Russian Sukhois, blending in with the landscape before—at the last moment—popping up to fire their missiles. “Aggressive Ukrainian tactics and good use of the low-level terrain during the first days of the invasion led to multiple claims and several likely kills against Russian aircraft, although Ukrainian fighters were often shot down or damaged in the process,” the analysts added.

    Ukrainian pilots downed just enough Russian pilots to spook the Kremlin. “After three days of skirmishing in which both sides lost aircraft, there was a notable pause in Russian strike and fighter sorties venturing deep behind Ukrainian lines, which lasted for several days,” Bronk, Reynolds and Watling explained.

    After that, the Russians changed their tactics. Attack pilots flew extremely low, just like the Ukrainian crews had been doing. Fighter pilots conducting air-to-air patrols meanwhile flew higher and stayed on the Russian side of the front line.

    That of course risked putting the air-superiority patrols too far from the front to intercept Ukrainian planes. It’s not for no reason that, by this summer, the Russian air force was heavily leaning on its 90 or so Mikoyan MiG-31BM interceptors for combat air patrols. The MiG-31’s Vympel R-37M missile can strike targets as far as 200 miles away.

    “The long range of the R-37M, in conjunction with the very high performance and high operating altitude of the MiG-31BM also allows it significant freedom to menace Ukrainian aircraft near the front lines from outside the range of Ukrainian defenses,” the RUSI team wrote.

    It’s telling that, of the 60 fixed-wing planes the Russians have lost in the war, just one was a MiG-31—and it accidentally crashed. But the R-37M isn’t foolproof, and not every missile hits. The MiG-31s are bleeding the Ukrainian air force, but—so far—not fatally.

    The Ukrainian air force since February has written off 51 fixed-wing planes. Proportionally, Ukraine’s losses are much steeper than Russia’s are. But the Ukrainian air force still is flying and fighting—making up with aggression and creativity what it lacks in numbers and high technology.

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    David Axe, Forbes Staff

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  • Zelenskyy says Russia destroyed Kherson’s critical infrastructure

    Zelenskyy says Russia destroyed Kherson’s critical infrastructure

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    Ukraine’s president says communications, water, heat, electricity have been disrupted as Russians left the city.

    Russian forces have destroyed critical infrastructure in the southern city of Kherson before fleeing, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, as Kyiv’s military retook control of the southeastern city.

    “Before fleeing from Kherson, the occupiers destroyed all the critical infrastructure: communications, water, heat, electricity,” Zelenskyy said in a video address on Saturday.

    “[Russians] everywhere have the same goal: to humiliate people as much as possible. But we will restore everything, believe me,” he said.

    Jubilant residents welcomed troops arriving in the city centre on Friday after Russia abandoned the only regional capital it had captured since the start of the war in February.

    Ukrainian troops retook control of more than 60 settlements in the Kherson region, Zelenskyy said, adding that almost 2,000 mines, tripwires and unexploded shells had been dealt with so far.

    Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine was “winning battles on the ground. But the war continues.”

    Ukraine’s triumphant recovery of Kherson was welcomed by the United States as an “extraordinary victory”.

    “It’s a big moment and it’s due to the incredible tenacity and skill of the Ukrainians, backed by the relentless and united support of the United States and our allies,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said while travelling to Cambodia with President Joe Biden for a regional summit.

    ‘Most decisive’ event in the war

    Al Jazeera’s Assed Baig, reporting from the Kherson region, said Moscow’s withdrawal was the “most decisive” event in this war so far.

    “It’s boosted the morale of Ukrainian soldiers who say … they now believe they can win this war.”

    Kuleba, who was attending the same summit, warned that Kyiv still sees “Russia mobilising more conscripts and bringing more weapons to Ukraine”.

    Ukraine’s National Police chief, Ihor Klymenko, said some 200 officers were at work in the city, setting up checkpoints and documenting evidence of possible war crimes.

    About 70 percent of the Kherson region remains under Moscow’s control, with Russian troops fortifying their battle lines on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces.

    Russia established the Ukrainian city of Henichesk as Kherson region’s temporary administrative capital following its withdrawal from Kherson city.

    While it appears to be a major Russian setback, the Kremlin insisted Kherson was still part of Russia and it did not regret annexing the entire Kherson region. Russia announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, including Kherson, in September – a step dubbed illegal by Kyiv.

    The full Ukrainian recapture of the Kherson region would disrupt a vital land bridge for Russia between its mainland and the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

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  • Banksy unveils Ukraine mural in town bombed by Russia

    Banksy unveils Ukraine mural in town bombed by Russia

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    Banksy, the elusive British street artist, has painted a mural on a bombed-out building outside Ukraine’s capital, in what Ukrainians have hailed as a symbol of their country’s invincibility.

    On Friday night, the world-famous graffiti artist posted on Instagram three images of the artwork — a gymnast performing a handstand amid the ruins of a demolished building in the town of Borodyanka northwest of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.

    The caption read “Borodyanka, Ukraine.”

    Together with towns such as Bucha and Irpin, Borodyanka was severely hit by Russia’s bombardments and became a symbol of the devastation wrought by Moscow’s offensive since February.

    The town was briefly occupied by Russian forces before they withdrew in April.

    “It is a symbol that we are unbreakable,” 32-year-old Oleksiy Savochka told AFP on Saturday, referring to the graffiti. “And our country is unbreakable.”

    A number of murals — in the style of Banksy — have appeared in and around Kyiv prompting Ukrainians to think that the anonymous street artist might be working in the war-ravaged country.

    Another graffiti in Borodyanka — its origin unconfirmed by the artist — shows a little boy throwing a man wearing a judo uniform to the ground.

    UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR
    A local resident walks past a graffiti on a wall of destroyed building, drawn in Banksy style but its origin unconfirmed by the artist, in the town of Borodyanka on Nov. 12, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

    GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images


    The scene could be a possible reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is a martial arts enthusiast.

    “It is a small boy against an old man and he is defeated, he’s already defeated,” Bogdan Mashay, a 30-year-old Ukrainian TV journalist, told AFP near the artwork.

    “It’s unbelievable that Banksy is here in Borodyanka,” he added.

    On the side of a ruined building in Irpin, a third mural — also unconfirmed by Banksy — shows a gymnast performing a ribbon routine despite apparently being hurt and wearing a neck collar.

    TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR
    TOPSHOT – Local residents look at a Banksy-style graffiti on the wall of a destroyed residential building, but its origin remains unconfirmed by the artist, in Irpin, near Kyiv on Nov. 12, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

    GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images


    On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared Kherson “ours” after Russia withdrew troops from the strategic southern city.

    Kherson was the first major urban hub to fall after Putin ordered Russian troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

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  • Belching lakes, mystery craters, ‘zombie fires’: How the climate crisis is transforming the Arctic permafrost | CNN

    Belching lakes, mystery craters, ‘zombie fires’: How the climate crisis is transforming the Arctic permafrost | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Four years ago, Morris J. Alexie had to move out of the house his father built in Alaska in 1969 because it was sinking into the ground and water was beginning to seep into his home.

    “The bogs are showing up in between houses, all over our community. There are currently seven houses that are occupied but very slanted and sinking into the ground as we speak,” Alexie said by phone from Nunapitchuk, a village of around 600 people. “Everywhere is bogging up.”

    What was once grassy tundra is now riddled with water, he said. Their land is crisscrossed by 8-foot-wide boardwalks the community uses to get from place to place. And even some of the boardwalks have begun to sink.

    “It’s like little polka dots of tundra land. We used to have regular grass all over our community. Now it’s changed into constant water marsh.”

    Thawing permafrost — the long-frozen layer of soil that has underpinned the Arctic tundra and boreal forests of Alaska, Canada and Russia for millennia — is upending the lives of people such as Alexie. It’s also dramatically transforming the polar landscape, which is now peppered with massive sinkholes, newly formed or drained lakes, collapsing seashores and fire damage.

    It’s not just the 3.6 million people who live in polar regions who need to be worried about the thawing permafrost.

    Everyone does – particularly the leaders and climate policymakers from nearly 200 countries now meeting in Egypt for COP 27, the annual UN climate summit.

    The vast amount of carbon stored in the northernmost reaches of our planet is an overlooked and underestimated driver of climate crisis. The frozen ground holds an estimated 1,700 billion metric tons of carbon – roughly 51 times the amount of carbon the world released as fossil fuel emissions in 2019, according to NASA. It may already be emitting as much greenhouse gas as Japan.

    Permafrost thaw gets less attention than the headline-hogging shrinking of glaciers and ice sheets, but scientists said that needs to change — and fast.

    “Permafrost is like the dirty cousin to the ice sheets. It’s a buried phenomenon. You don’t see it. It’s covered by vegetation and soil,” said Merritt Turetsky, director of the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado Boulder. “But it’s down there. We know it’s there. And it has an equally important impact on the global climate.”

    It’s particularly pressing because Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stopped much scientific cooperation, meaning a potential loss of access to key data and knowledge about the region.

    Warmer summers — the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average — have weakened and deepened the top or active layer of permafrost, which unfreezes in summer and freezes in winter.

    This thawing is waking up the microbes in the soil that feast on organic matter, allowing methane and carbon dioxide to escape from the soil and into the atmosphere. It can also open pathways for methane to rise up from reservoirs deep in the earth.

    “Permafrost has been basically serving as Earth’s freezer for ancient biomass,” Turetsky said. “When those creatures and organisms died, their biomass became incorporated into these frozen soil layers and then was preserved over time.”

    As permafrost thaws, often in complex ways that aren’t clearly understood, that freezer lid is cranking open, and scientists such as Turetsky are doubling efforts to understand how these changes will play out.

    Permafrost is a particularly unpredictable wild card in the climate crisis because it’s not yet clear whether carbon emissions from permafrost will be a relative drop in the bucket or a devastating addition. The latest estimates suggest that the magnitude of carbon emissions from permafrost by the end of this century could be equal to or bigger than present-day emissions from major fossil fuel-emitting nations.

    “There’s some scientific uncertainty of how large that country is. However, if we go down a high emissions scenario, it could be as large or larger than the United States,” said Brendan Rogers, an associate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts.

    He described the permafrost as a sleeping giant whose impact wasn’t yet clear.

    “We’re just talking about a massive amount of carbon. We don’t expect all of it to thaw … because some of it is very deep and would take hundreds or thousands of years,” Rogers said. “But even if a small fraction of that does get admitted to the atmosphere, that’s a big deal.”

    Projections of cumulative permafrost carbon emissions from 2022 through 2100 range from 99 gigatons to 550 gigatons. By comparison, the United States currently emits 368 gigatons of carbon, according to a paper published in September in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

    Smoke from a wildfire is visible behind a permafrost monitoring tower at the Scotty Creek Research Station in Canada's Northwest Territories in September. The tower burned down in October from unusual wildfire activity.

    Not all climate change models that policymakers use to make their already grim predictions include projected emissions from permafrost thaw, and those that do assume it will be gradual, Rogers said.

    He and other scientists are concerned about the prevalence of abrupt or rapid thawing in permafrost regions, which has the power to shock the landscape into releasing far more carbon than with gradual top-down warming alone.

    The traditional view of permafrost thaw is that it’s a process that exposes layers slowly, but “abrupt thaw” is exposing deep permafrost layers more quickly in a number of ways.

    For example, Big Trail Lake in Alaska, a recently formed lake, belches bubbles of methane — a potent greenhouse gas, which comes from thawing permafrost below the lake water. The methane can stop such lakes from refreezing in winter, exposing the deeper permafrost to warmer temperatures and degradation.

    Bubbles of methane — a potent greenhouse gas — appear on the surface of Big Trail Lake in Alaska.

    Rapid thawing of the permafrost also happens in the wake of intense wildfires that have swept across parts of Siberia in recent years, Rogers said. Sometimes these blazes smolder underground for months, long after flames above ground have been extinguished, earning them the nickname zombie fires.

    “The fires themselves will burn part of the active layer (of permafrost) combusting the soil and releasing greenhouses gases like carbon dioxide,” Rogers said. “But that soil that’s been combusted was also insulating, keeping the permafrost cool in summer. Once you get rid of it, you get very quickly much deeper active layers, and that can lead to larger emissions over the following decades.”

    Also deeply concerning has been the sudden appearance of around 20 perfectly cylindrical craters in the remote far north of Siberia in the past 10 years. Dozens of meters in diameter, they are thought to be caused by a buildup and explosion of methane — a previously unknown geological phenomenon that surprised many permafrost scientists and could represent a new pathway for methane previously contained deep within the earth to escape.

    “The Arctic is warming so fast,” Rogers said, “and there’s crazy things happening.”

    A lack of monitoring and data on the behavior of permafrost, which covers 15% of the exposed land surface of the Northern Hemisphere, means scientists still only have a patchwork, localized understanding of rapid thaw, how it contributes to global warming and affects people living in permafrost regions.

    Rogers at the Woodwell Climate Research Center is part of a new $41 million initiative, funded by a group of billionaires and called the Audacious Project, to understand permafrost thaw. It aims to coordinate a pan-Arctic carbon monitoring network to fill in some of the data gaps that have made it difficult to incorporate permafrost thaw emissions into climate targets.

    The project’s first carbon flux tower, which tracks the flow of methane and carbon dioxide from the ground to the atmosphere, was installed this summer in Churchill, Manitoba. However, plans to install similar monitoring stations in Siberia are in disarray as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    “It’s always been more challenging to work in Russia than other countries … Canada, for example,” Rogers said. “But this (invasion), of course, has made it exponentially more challenging.”

    Sebastian Dötterl, a professor and soil scientist at ETH Zurich, a Swiss university, who studies how warmer air and soil temperatures change plant growth in the Arctic, was able to travel to the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard in the Arctic this summer to collect soil and plant samples.

    However, the field trip cost twice as much as initially budgeted because the group was forbidden to use any Russia-owned infrastructure, forcing the team to hire a tourist boat and reorganize its itinerary. But Dötterl said the more pressing issue is that he can no longer interact with his counterparts at Russian institutions.

    “We are now splitting a rather small community of specialists all over the world into political groups that are disconnected, where our problems are global and should be connected,” he said.

    Turetsky agreed, saying that the war in Ukraine had been a “disaster for our scientific enterprise.”

    “Russia and Siberia are huge, huge players. … Many of the (European Union-) and US-funded projects to work in Siberia to do any kind of lateral knowledge sharing, they’ve all been canceled.

    “Will we stop trying? No, of course not. And there’s a lot we can do with existing data and with global remote sensing products. But it’s been a real setback for the community.”

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