ReportWire

Tag: ukraine invasion

  • Letters: Fix Our Forests disguises logging as fire safety

    [ad_1]

    Submit your letter to the editor via this form. Read more Letters to the Editor.

    Fix Our Forests offers
    logging as fire safety

    Re: “Legislation would worsen California wildfire threat” (Page A8, Dec. 28).

    The Fix Our Forests Act isn’t about environmental safety; rather, it is a blatant attempt at expanding the logging industry under the cover of wildfire prevention. Congress is rushing to pass a bill that dramatically expands backcountry logging while weakening environmental review and public input, allowing projects up to 15 square miles to bypass the National Environmental Policy Act.

    [ad_2]

    Letters To The Editor

    Source link

  • Letters: Fremont cricket field critics fear the unknown

    [ad_1]

    Submit your letter to the editor via this form. Read more Letters to the Editor.

    Cricket field critics
    fear the unknown

    Re: “Neighbors up in arms over cricket field plans” (Page B1, Nov. 22).

    It was shocking to read that a few neighbors are opposed to having a cricket field in the proposed Palm Avenue Community Park in Fremont. The main fear is that flying cricket balls could injure a child or elderly person or damage homes or cars. Do baseballs ever fly out of the field and cause personal injury? Balls flying over to the street or neighborhood will be rare and can easily be prevented in the design and construction of the stadium.

    It is more likely the fear of the unknown. People here are not familiar with cricket. Both baseball and cricket trace their origins back to medieval European bat-and-ball games and are more like “cousins.” Cricket fields all over the world are in the middle of cities and residential neighborhoods, and they are safe. It is fun to play and or watch cricket, so let us go for it.

    Subru Bhat
    Union City

    Coal project is bad
    for Oakland’s health

    Re: “Coal project costs mounting” (Page A1, Nov. 26).

    The New York Times article about Phil Tagami’s proposed Oakland coal terminal is very misleading.

    The article says, “a state judge ruled in 2023 that the city had to uphold its deal with Tagami.” However, that ruling only provided Tagami with $320,000 in damages. The disappointed coal developers found a judge in Kentucky whose suggestion of hundreds of millions in damages was rejected by Kentucky’s district court on November 21.

    The article quotes Tagami as denying that the project “makes a difference in the world.” But several mile-long trains every day would be spewing unhealthy coal dust from Utah to Oakland. And when burned, that much coal would cost the world tens of billions of dollars in damages (using the EPA’s social cost of carbon).

    The article says, ”The coal project must now go forward.” Those of us who care about the livability of Oakland will continue to oppose this deadly project.

    Jack Fleck
    Oakland

    Mastering spelling
    unlocks many doors

    Re: “Spelling isn’t a subject we can afford to drop” (Page A6, Nov. 19).

    My attention was drawn to Abby McCloskey’s column.

    As this article asserts, a strong foundation in spelling in a child’s early learning years leads to reading and literacy proficiency down the road. My personal academic experience bears this out.

    In my elementary school years in the 1950s, I had a natural strength in spelling, which was nurtured by my teachers. I still have all of my certificates of achievement, which span local through regional spelling contests that I entered.

    Further, this skill led me toward my love of writing — whether it be in the form of a school essay, poetry or, as you are reading now, my penchant for submitting letters to the editor.

    While “spell check” is a helpful tool, our brains still rely on the visualization of words to connect the dots in our educational journey.

    Sharon Brown
    Walnut Creek

    Immigration judges’
    principles cost them

    As the season of gratitude, peace, joy and hope approaches, recently unbenched San Francisco Immigration Judges Patrick Savage, Amber George, Jeremiah Johnson, Shuting Chen and Louis Gordon have inspired this letter. Although no reason was given for their forced departures, I wasn’t surprised. Having seen several preside over mandatory immigration hearings restored my hope in this country’s future. Unfortunately, the very behaviors that gave me hope put them at risk of losing their jobs. Behaviors like being well-versed in immigration law, diligent in their efforts to fully understand cases from both immigrant and government perspectives, and exhibiting both kindness and respect to all present within their courtrooms.

    The current administration has rendered these judges easily disposable obstacles to any campaign promises conflicting with this nation’s laws, Constitution and system of checks and balances. Fortunately, obstacles like integrity and allegiance to oaths of office can’t be as easily disposed of.

    Linda Thorlakson
    Castro Valley

    [ad_2]

    Letters To The Editor

    Source link

  • Secret U.S.-Russia talks led to plan that blindsided Ukraine | Fortune

    [ad_1]

    The controversial 28-point plan dropped suddenly by the Trump administration to Ukraine as a take-it-or-leave it proposition mere days ago was mostly the result of several weeks of negotiations behind the scenes between Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev that excluded not only Ukraine and its allies but even some key US officials.

    Faced with a Thanksgiving holiday deadline, European officials are racing to buy Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy more time with their own counter-proposal on how to end the war that will be presented to US officials on Sunday in Switzerland. 

    This reconstruction on how the ultimatum came about and who was really behind it is based on conversations with several people familiar with the deliberations who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss delicate negotiations.

    Read More: Ukraine Seeks NATO-like Shield From US, Counter-Plan Says

    For Europeans, the alarm went off when a new player was introduced to the scene: US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, a close friend of JD Vance going back to their days at Yale Law School. It was he who told their ambassadors and Ukraine officials in an urgent tone that US President Donald Trump had run out of patience, that Ukraine was in a bad position and that Kyiv had to agree to concede territory.

    The fact that it was a figure close to the vice president tasked to push the plan during a trip to Kyiv this past week was telling. It was a weighty assignment typically undertaken by high-level diplomats, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio or other foreign diplomats. Vance and Rubio have had different takes on how the war should end, with Vance taking a more isolationist bent and Rubio much warier of being manipulated by Russia.

    Read More: Vance and Rubio Offer Clues to Trump’s Emerging Foreign Policy

    Before European leaders and Zelenskiy jumped into action, they needed to try and understand who was most responsible for the framework. They had been entirely shut out and it wasn’t clear who had the most influence with Trump on the issue.

    As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk quipped pointedly on X: “Before we start our work, it would be good to know for sure who is the author of the plan and where was it created.”

    The picture that emerged was that Witkoff and Dmitriev forged the plan during an October meeting in Miami that included Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, who worked with Witkoff on the Israel-Gaza peace deal, according to people familiar with the matter.

    Rubio hadn’t been fully looped in until late. Trump also found out about it at the last minute, but he blessed it once he was briefed. The White House didn’t immediately respond to messages left for comment. 

    A deal would give him a win as he faces a domestic political slump, with Democrats shellacking his party in early November elections, raising the possibility of painful midterm election results next year. A previously pliant Republican-led Congress is also bucking his wishes to release files related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, with whom Trump once had a relationship before they fell out.

    In addition, the US president has taken an increasingly aggressive posture in the Caribbean and is weighing a possible strike against Venezuela. 

    Meanwhile, Zelenskiy is battling a corruption scandal that threatens to engulf his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. So he’s feeling the heat, too, back home.

    For Trump, what matters is getting a deal, not the fine print. But for Ukrainians, the devil is in the details. Their fears that Russia drafted large swathes of the document unbeknown to them were proved right. The document still bears the hallmarks of a direct translation from Russian with oddly formulated sentences.

    The measures would force Ukraine to cede large chunks of land, reduce the size of its military and forbid it from ever joining NATO. The plan would also reestablish economic ties between Russia and the US, the world’s largest economy.

    To try and correct course, Ukraine and its European allies will insist that discussions with Russia on any territorial swaps can only take place once the war ceases along the current line of contact. They also want a security agreement that mirrors NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, among other measures.

    Read More: Finland’s Stubb and Italy’s Meloni Spoke to Trump on Ukraine

    Efforts to find a resolution have gone through operatic fits and spurts since Trump returned to the White House in January, when he pledged to stop the fighting in a matter of days. 

    The current episode is no less dramatic than previous ones that saw Zelenskiy upbraided by Vance and Trump in an Oval Office meeting. Back then, European leaders rushed to the White House following a hastily-staged summit with Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August. Their suspicion was that Putin had a strange hold on Trump. The sly smile the Russian president flashed in the backseat of “the beast” car did little to put them at ease.

    When Trump suddenly declared in October he was up for a second summit with Putin, this time in Budapest, it felt like a replay of the summer. However, this time, the Europeans were grateful to have Rubio in their corner. The meeting was cancelled after the US top official had a call with his Russian counterpart and realized the Russians hadn’t budged on their asks.

    What they didn’t know was that in the background, Witkoff was putting together what came to be the 28-point plan. They believed Rubio had displaced the special envoy and real estate mogul as the key US interlocutor on Ukraine. 

    US Senator Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican, said that Rubio — while en route to Geneva — told him and US Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat from New Hampshire, that the 28-point plan is a Russian proposal and that “it is not our recommendation. It is not our peace plan.”

    Read More: Ukraine Talks Take Center Stage as G-20 Summit Closes: TOPLive

    Rubio later wrote on X that the peace proposal was authored by the US and that it offers a strong framework for negotiations. But his choice of words was careful: “It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.”

    He traveled to Geneva for the talks on Sunday, joining Witkoff and Driscoll. Ukraine is represented by Yermak. It’s unclear if the Americans even want to see the Europeans together with the Ukrainians. 

    Driscoll has been in constant contact with Witkoff and Vance as he became the new interface with European officials. Before this past week, his public comments about Russia and Ukraine were largely based on his calls for technological reform in the US military, based on how the two countries have deployed drones on the battlefield.

    Vance’s deputy national security adviser, Andy Baker, has also been heavily involved, the people said, in yet another sign of Vance’s influence. 

    Confronted with pushback, Trump wasn’t irate. He told NBC on Saturday that the proposal is “not my final offer,” hinting that contrary to what Driscoll had said behind closed doors, there was perhaps room for maneuver.

    Yet his mood worsened on Sunday.

    Ukraine’s leadership has “EXPRESSED ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS,” he said in a social media post.

    A lot will depend on how talks in Switzerland go, and in which direction US planes go to next: back home or further east, toward Moscow.

    [ad_2]

    Natalia Drozdiak, Alberto Nardelli, Mario Parker, Bloomberg

    Source link

  • Russian strikes hit an apartment building and energy sites in Ukraine, killing 4

    [ad_1]

    By Samya Kullab and Joanna Kozlowska | Associated Press

    KYIV, Ukraine — A Russian drone slammed into an apartment building in eastern Ukraine early Saturday while many were sleeping, killing three people and wounding 12 others, Ukrainian authorities reported.

    [ad_2]

    Associated Press

    Source link

  • Trump warns Russia he may send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if war isn’t settled soon in ‘a new step of aggression’ | Fortune

    [ad_1]

    President Donald Trump on Sunday warned Russia that he may send Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles if Moscow doesn’t settle its war there soon — suggesting that he could be ready to increase the pressure on Vladimir Putin’s government using a key weapons system.

    “I might say, ’Look: if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew to Israel. “The Tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon. And honestly, Russia does not need that.”

    Trump said, “I might tell them that if the war is not settled — that we may very well.” He added, “We may not, but we may do it. I think it’s appropriate to bring up.”

    His comments came after Trump spoke by phone earlier Sunday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Trump said he mentioned possibly sending Tomahawks during that conversation.

    “Do they want to have Tomahawks going in that direction? I don’t think so,” Trump said of Russia. “I think I might speak to Russia about that.” He added that “Tomahawks are a new step of aggression.”

    His suggestions followed Russia having attacked Ukraine’s power grid overnight, part of an ongoing campaign to cripple Ukrainian energy infrastructure before winter. Moscow also expressed “extreme concern” over the U.S. potentially providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine.

    Putin himself has previously suggested that the United States supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine will seriously damage relations between Moscow and Washington.

    For his part, Zelenskyy described his latest call with Trump as “very productive,” and said the pair had discussed strengthening Ukraine’s “air defense, resilience, and long-range capabilities,” along with “details related to the energy sector.”

    Trump in recent weeks has taken a notably tougher tact with Putin, after the Russian leader has declined to engage in direct talks with Zelenskyy about easing fighting.

    Last month, Trump announced that he now believes Ukraine could win back all the territory lost to Russia — a dramatic shift from the Republican’s repeated calls for Kyiv to make concessions to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    But the U.S. president, at least so far, has resisted Zelenskyy’s calls for Tomahawks. The weapon system would allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory and put the sort of pressure on Putin that Zelenskyy argues is needed to get the Russians to seriously engage in peace talks.

    Trump said aboard Air Force One of the war: “I really think Putin would look great if he got this settled” and that “It’s not going to be good for him” if not.

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

    [ad_2]

    Darlene Superville, Will Weissert, The Associated Press

    Source link

  • UK treasury chief says ‘harsh global headwinds’ from wars and tariffs are harming the country’s economic outlook | Fortune

    [ad_1]

    Britain’s Treasury chief warned Monday that “harsh global headwinds” from wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have worsened the U.K.’s economic outlook since the governing Labour Party won power last year.

    Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves told Labour’s annual conference that her economic plans must be “fit for an uncertain world,” a hint she will raise taxes in her autumn budget on Nov. 26.

    “In the last year the world has changed, and we are not immune to that change,” she told the BBC before the speech. “Whether it is wars in Europe and the Middle East, whether it is increased barriers to trade because of tariffs coming from the United States, whether it is the global cost of borrowing, we’re not immune to any of those things.”

    Since ending 14 years of Conservative rule in July 2024, Labour has struggled to deliver the economic growth it promised. Inflation remains stubbornly high and the economic outlook subdued, frustrating efforts to repair tattered public services and ease the cost of living.

    Labour pledged during the election not to raise taxes on working people, but has since hiked levies on employers.

    Reeves told the BBC she was “determined not to increase those key taxes that working people pay,” stopping short of ruling out any hikes at all.

    In her speech, interrupted by repeated standing ovations from hundreds of Labour members — and by a lone pro-Palestinian protester — Reeves leavened her sober assessment of the country’s finances with a touch of optimism. She outlined the government’s investments in defense, transport, energy and education, claiming they were making a difference to millions of people.

    She pledged to end long-term youth unemployment, saying everyone under 25 who has been unemployed for 18 months will be offered guaranteed paid work. One in eight 16–24-year-olds in Britain — about 1 million people — is currently not in education, work, or training.

    Reeves also said the government was working on an “ambitious agreement on youth mobility” with the 27-nation European Union. British citizens lost the right to move and work freely in the EU when the country left the bloc in 2020.

    Thousands of Labour members are in Liverpool, northwest England, for the party conference -– a mix of policy forum and pep rally that this year is lacking in pizazz.

    The hard right is a key concern

    Labour lags behind Nigel Farage ’s hard-right Reform UK party in opinion polls, and some party members are losing faith in Prime Minister Keir Starmer, even though there may be four years until the next election.

    Many are rallying around Andy Burnham, the ambitious Labour mayor of Manchester, who said Sunday that the party is in “peril” and needs to change direction.

    Reeves took aim at those in Labour, such as Burnham, who argue the government should borrow more to spend more on public services. She cited former Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss’ disastrous 2022 plan for unfunded tax cuts, which sent the value of the pound plunging and the cost of government borrowing soaring.

    “When spending gets out of control, when market confidence is lost … it is felt immediately in the growing cost of essentials, and rising interest rates,” Reeves said.

    The threat posed by Reform is top issue among Labour delegates at the four-day conference, which ends Wednesday. Farage’s party has only five lawmakers in the 650 seat House of Commons, and Labour has more than 400. Nonetheless, Starmer said Reform is now Labour’s chief opponent, not the main opposition Conservatives.

    Starmer has described the fight between Labour and Reform as “a battle for the soul of this country.” On Sunday he accused Farage of sowing division with plans by Reform to deport immigrants who are in the U.K. legally. Starmer said such a policy would be “racist” and “immoral.”

    The U.K. government has toughened its own language about immigration, though. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told the conference the government must question some of “the assumptions and legal constraints” around migration.

    She said she plans to raise the bar immigrants must meet to gain permanent residency. Under the proposals, people will have to have a “high standard” of English, no criminal record and give back to their communities to get the right to settle in the U.K.

    “Unless we have control of our borders, and until we can decide who comes in and who must leave, we will never be the open, tolerant and generous country that I know we all believe in,” she said.

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

    [ad_2]

    Jill Lawless, The Associated Press

    Source link

  • Many Russian immigrants in SoCal buy propaganda that Nazis thrive in Ukraine

    Many Russian immigrants in SoCal buy propaganda that Nazis thrive in Ukraine

    [ad_1]

    Shortly after Russian forces launched their full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Gary Rapoport, a real estate broker in Burbank, showed pictures of a destroyed apartment in his native city of Odesa to his relatives in Los Angeles, convinced that the grueling images of families’ shattered homes would make them acknowledge the disastrous impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

    Yet they seemed unimpressed.

    His relatives in Los Angeles examined the images of the wreckage in Odesa and told him the pictures were fake. They said Russians would never commit atrocities against Ukrainians.

    Rapoport was shocked and realized his relatives perceived the war as an attack by Ukrainians on Russian-language speakers, a large minority group living in Ukraine. He couldn’t help but wonder if they were influenced by reports and narratives from pro-Kremlin news outlets easily found online in the U.S.

    In an interview with this news organization, Rapoport said his relatives believe news on the Kremlin-controlled TV station, Channel One, more than they believe him. “Russian propaganda is very powerful. It has convinced people that Ukrainians are a nation of nationalists and Nazis,” he said.

    Robert English, director of USC’s School of International Relations, said the Kremlin “has taken the lessons of World War II and twisted and adapted them to create the menace, the looming threat of revived Nazism that is directed against Russians. And Jews don’t even seem to figure in this story. It’s a strange twisting of history to serve the political needs of the present.”

    He added: “Nazis were targeting Jews and cleaning out the ghettos and rounding them up and focusing overwhelmingly on Jews, (but) that’s not how Soviets and Russians were taught in the era of (Joseph) Stalin and (Leonid) Brezhnev. It was sanitized so Jews as primary victims were removed and it became Soviets. And even if Jews were killed and that was admitted, they were Jewish but they were Soviets.”

    Before Vladimir Putin became Russia’s president, English said, “There was a very mild appreciation of how particularly vicious Nazis were against Jews (during World War II) — because Russians have always been taught that we all suffered equally. We were all ‘Soviet.’”

    Rapoport was baffled and frustrated with his relatives for blaming the U.S. and Europe for prolonging the war in Ukraine. He said they repeated the lines spread by the Kremlin’s pundits on Channel One and other state-owned TV channels.

    “Our people have been brainwashed for a long time,” Rapoport said in Russian. “Our people don’t understand that Channel One is sponsored by the Kremlin. When the war started, they already hated Ukrainians. By that time, propaganda had done its work.”

    Like Rapoport, Eugene Maysky, chair of the Russian-Speaking Advisory Board of the City of West Hollywood, is perplexed by the impact the Kremlin’s views have had on his fellow Russians in the U.S.

    Russian immigrants, Maysky said, are susceptible to anti-West and anti-NATO rhetoric because they grew up on Soviet and Russian movies blasting the West and glorifying Russian power. Even after moving to the U.S., for immigrants, Russian TV — which broadcasts Soviet movies along with pro-Kremlin programs — remains the main source of entertainment and information.

    Eugene Maysky is the chair of the Russian-speaking Advisory Board to the City of West Hollywood. (Photo by Hans Gutknecht, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

    “Putin’s PR team somehow came up with an idea that it would be easy to convince Russians that there are Nazis in Ukraine,” Maysky said in Russian. “They used stories from World War II about Nazis attacking Russians. We all grew up with movies about the Soviet Union being attacked by Nazis and then defeating them during World War II. That narrative is easy to sell to Russians.”

    Rapoport remembers that before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russians acted like “big brothers” over Ukrainians. “There was a foundation for this attitude of Putin that says: ‘Ukraine is not really a nation. It’s just a dialect of the Russian language. Kyiv is Russia.’ There was definitely a lot of that, even in previous decades.”

    But since the 2014 Maidan Revolution that ousted Ukraine’s pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, English at USC explained, there has been “this narrative of ‘bad Ukrainians’ threatening Russia.” An era of widespread hatred grew in Russia toward Ukrainians, “something that was manufactured very recently,” English said.

    That experience prompted Rapoport, who arrived in the U.S. in 1991, to question how the Kremlin influenced his fellow Russian expats living 6,000 miles away from Moscow in Southern California. According to the U.S. Census, most of the 600,000 expats live in Los Angeles and Orange counties, but Russian speakers have also settled in Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

    “The scariest thing is that it’s impossible to convince (relatives) of anything other than their beliefs,” Rapoport said. “The propaganda is strong. I didn’t find one person who would move to the bright side.”

    On U.S. cable, the power of Russian TV

    The majority of Russian news TV cable channels seen in the U.S. are tightly controlled by the far-off Kremlin, according to English. Recent research by Russian independent polling organization Levada found that 62% of Russians get their news from TV.

    Many expats watch popular Kremlin propagandists such as Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent radio and television anchor for the state-owned TV and radio stations known as “Putin’s voice.” Solovyov proclaimed in 2022 that “Ukraine is a Nazi state.”

    Tiblisi and Yerevan Bakery is a Russian-Armenian Deli on the 7800 block of Santa Monica Boulevard in West Hollywood on Friday, March 18, 2022. West Hollywood has a significant Russian-speaking population. (Photo by Axel Koester, Contributing Photographer)
    Tiblisi and Yerevan Bakery is a Russian-Armenian Deli on the 7800 block of Santa Monica Boulevard in West Hollywood on Friday, March 18, 2022. West Hollywood has a significant Russian-speaking population. (Photo by Axel Koester, Contributing Photographer)

    Weeks after the start of the war in Ukraine, Solovyov said, “Ukrainians are killing their civilians to frame Russia, while Russia targets only military objects.”

    UC Riverside professor and Ukraine-Russia expert Paul D’Anieri says “Propaganda is part of any war and the goal is to weaken the support for Ukraine by convincing people that Ukrainians are not the victim here, but the perpetrator.”

    The idea that Ukraine has been inundated by Nazis, he explained, goes back to World War II.

    “There were a small number of Ukrainians who collaborated with Nazis,” D’Anieri explained. “There were Russians, Belarusians, and Americans who collaborated with Nazis as well. But millions of Ukrainians died fighting against the Nazis. There’s this phenomenon that if you say stuff over and over again, people tend to believe that there must be some truth in it.”

    Another reason some Russians believe government and media propaganda, D’Anieri said, is because, “If I’m Russian and I don’t believe that stuff about Ukrainian ‘Nazis,’ then what do I have to believe about my own society? I have to believe that my own society is engaging in this genocide against people that we swear are our brothers. That is not a very easy thing to swallow.”

    West Hollywood has a population of about 35,000 and nearly 20% of its residents are Russian speakers. Sofiya Fikhman, 84, a Russian Jew in West Hollywood who moved to Southern California in the early 1990s, turns on her Russian TV show right after she comes home from the Russian library where she volunteers three times a week.

    During the Nazi occupation of Belarus during World War II, her family was forced into a Jewish ghetto in Nazi-occupied Odesa. She says she watches the latest news before bed, usually Channel One, despite pleas from her grandchildren to stop watching the Russian news.

    “When you live alone, have no one to talk to, you end up watching TV a lot,” she said in Russian, adding that she felt sad for residents of her hometown, Odesa, whose homes and schools have been destroyed by Russian forces.

    Friends take sides over ‘Little Russia’

    Maysky, the chair of the Russian-speaking board in West Hollywood, says the Kremlin “is using stories from World War II because they are still remembered by older Russians. Putin’s team probably thought: ‘There are people who still remember fighting the Nazis during World War II and sharing those stories with their children, so it would be easy to convince them that Nazis still exist in Ukraine. That’s why Russia has to fight against Ukraine.

    The issue of propaganda divides even younger Russians. Maysky, 48, recently blocked several friends on Facebook who support Putin, and he cut off a longtime friend who believed Kremlin’s justification of the war in Ukraine.

    “I can’t believe that a grownup man my age who traveled the world can seriously believe everything that the Russian government says,” Maysky said. “You can’t be friends (if they) believe the idiotic Russian propaganda, even if you were friends with someone half of your life. That’s the tragedy of modern times because many of my friends are affected by the virus of Russian propaganda.”‘

    He warned, “we can’t ignore that monstrous propaganda machine.”

    Beriozka is a Russian grocery business on Santa Monica Boulevard in West Hollywood on Friday, March 18, 2022. Flyers show support for Ukraine and condemnation of Putin. West Hollywood has a significant population of Russian language speakers. (Photo by Axel Koester, Contributing Photographer)
    Beriozka is a Russian grocery business on Santa Monica Boulevard in West Hollywood on Friday, March 18, 2022. Flyers show support for Ukraine and condemnation of Putin. West Hollywood has a significant population of Russian language speakers. (Photo by Axel Koester, Contributing Photographer)

    According to English of USC, in 2014 Russians began hearing from the Kremlin that Nazis were targeting Russians in Ukraine. That year Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula and annexed that part of Ukraine.

    “That’s when the mythology grew huge,” he said, citing the key propaganda they used:  “Russians were at risk and that the Russian language was being distinguished, and the Russian culture was being suppressed. Russians, Russians, Russians were the victims of these Nazis, Nazis, Nazis.”

    TV can be powerful, English added. Especially for older people who grew up in the 1960s and 1970s, television remains “the main source of news and it’s so propagandistic now.”

    He added that “Jews were written out. They were downplayed. They were all but ignored as special victims in the Soviet Union. The Soviets wrote a version in history in which Soviets were the victims, not Jews.”

    Although young Russians, “were not brainwashed and indoctrinated in the 1960s and 1970s like the older generation,” English said, “they still got the full force of the last 20 years of Putin’s indoctrination.”

    “Maybe they don’t believe the propaganda fully, but once you feel isolated and hated by the world, you slip back into the official verse,” he said of younger Russians. “They feel abandoned by the West. They feel blamed by everyone else. It’s paradoxical, but it’s powerful.”

    TV host and commentator Vladimir Solovyov’s views are supported by Russians who believe the war on Ukraine was necessary to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine who were threatened by pro-Ukraine nationalists, according to English.

    Russian talk shows, English said, are “sleekly produced and have good production quality. They can be seductive and they appeal to people who watch Soviet-era TV. There’s something comforting in being told ‘this is what’s right’ and you want to be with the majority.”

    Vintage Soviet-era cars line the entry to the Russian Arts and Culture Festival grounds in West Hollywood. West Hollywood has a population of about 35,000 and about 20% of its residents are Russian speakers. (Courtesy of the City of West Hollywood)
    Vintage Soviet-era cars line the entry to the Russian Arts and Culture Festival grounds in West Hollywood. West Hollywood has a population of about 35,000 and about 20% of its residents are Russian speakers. (Courtesy of the City of West Hollywood)

    In his 2015 book Winter is Coming, chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov wrote, “The false narrative that Russia is surrounded by enemies who are intent on holding it back fills Putin’s need for fuel for his increasingly fascist propaganda. … Putin’s regime is as obsessed with Soviet suffering and victory in World War II as the Soviet Union ever was.”

    Kasparov, the World Chess Champion from 1985 to 2000 and today a political activist, added, “Along with the victimhood claim (in this case, legitimate), the WWII fixation fits the Kremlin’s desire to call all of its enemies fascists, despite all evidence to the contrary. Their bizarre logic goes, ‘We defeated fascists in WWII, and so everyone who opposes us is fascist.’”

    Last year when Rapoport’s relatives in West Hollywood saw TV reports of destroyed buildings on the street where their family had lived in Odesa, his relatives told Rapoport that Ukrainians had ravaged their former neighborhood — and that Russians would never kill civilians.

    Odessa Grocery is a Russian business on Santa Monica Boulevard in West-Hollywood on Friday, March 18, 2022. West Hollywood has a population of about 35,000 and about 20% of its residents are Russian speakers. (Photo by Axel Koester, Contributing Photographer)
    Odessa Grocery is a Russian business on Santa Monica Boulevard in West-Hollywood on Friday, March 18, 2022. West Hollywood has a population of about 35,000 and about 20% of its residents are Russian speakers. (Photo by Axel Koester, Contributing Photographer)

    The idea that Russians are superior to Ukrainians has been expressed by propagandist Solovyov and other pro-Kremlin propagandists, and Putin has referred to Ukraine as Malorossiya, which means “Little Russia” in English.

    D’Anieri at UC Riverside said the narrative of Little Russia, the concept that Ukrainians are the younger brothers of Russians, is spread by Kremlin propagandists and goes back to the idea that “Ukrainians should know their place.”

    “There’s also this idea that Ukrainians by themselves can’t want to be independent of Russia because Ukrainians love being ruled by Russia,” D’Anieri said. “Therefore, if Ukraine is trying to break away from Russia, it means some alien force in Ukraine is doing this. And that can either be Nazis or it could be Americans. But it’s not Ukraine.”

    Jokes about Ukrainians and other ethnic groups were common, said English at USC. “There was a chauvinistic attitude, but it was not hatred. It became something worse as state propaganda started telling (Russians) that (Ukrainians) were enemies, telling them that they were threatening.”

    How Kremlin’s propaganda reaches the U.S.

    As the Russian-Ukraine war saw its second anniversary this year on February 24, Rapoport’s relatives remained adamant about their support for the Kremlin.

    Rapoport said he tried to turn off the Russian TV channel or play pro-Ukrainian channels but “once they stop watching Russian TV, (they) go through painful withdrawal like drug addicts.”  

    But there are many ways for propaganda to reach expats in the U.S., according to Elina Treyger, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corp., whose work focuses on immigration enforcement, disinformation and misinformation.

    The U.S. Department of State, which monitors foreign disinformation, identified “the pillars of the Russian disinformation and propaganda ecosystem,” said Treyger. The pillars include state officials and their statements on social media, and state-sponsored or state-affiliated media, including RT — Russia Today — and Channel One.

    Other sources include proxy actors, Treyger said, who are “not part of the Russian state, they’re not necessarily being directed by the Russian state — although sometimes we don’t know — but they, for a whole host of motivations, amplify and spread Russian talking points.”

    The late Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group of mercenaries in Russia, admitted in 2023 that he established and financed the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a vast troll farm — an organized group of internet trolls that attempted to interfere in political opinions and decision-making. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned IRA in 2018 for creating a massive number of fake online accounts — posting as individuals, organizations and grassroots groups — to impact U.S. voters.

    From 2013 to 2018, campaigns on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter created by the IRA reached tens of millions of U.S. users, according to a report published in 2018 by the Computational Propaganda Research Project at the Oxford Internet Institute, which studied the use of social media before and during the 2016 elections.

    The Kremlin, Elina Treyger said, has been “fixated on the power of the information space for a long time, since the internet became a thing.”

    There was nothing Putin wanted more than to cancel the Internet, Treyger said, noting that “he didn’t cancel the Russian Internet but he reshaped it, allowing for the dominance of the Kremlin’s narratives.”

    Treyger says the Kremlin has “the advantage of being authoritarian on the inside, pulling information flow while injecting their narratives into our information landscape. That’s definitely a weakness that democracies have.”

    [ad_2]

    Olga Grigoryants

    Source link

  • House passes $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies

    House passes $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies

    [ad_1]

    The House swiftly approved $95 billion in foreign aidfor Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies in a rare Saturday session, Democrats and Republicans joining together after months of political turmoil over renewed American support for repelling Russia’s invasion.

    With overwhelming support, the $61 billion in aid for Ukraine delivered a strong showing of American backing as lawmakers race to deliver a fresh round of U.S. support to the war-torn ally. Some lawmakers cheered on the House floor and waved blue-and-yellow flags of Ukraine.

    The unusual process, with each bill having its own vote, allowed unique coalitions to form around the bills, pushing them forward. The whole package will go to the Senate, where passage in the coming days is nearly assured. President Joe Biden has promised to sign it immediately.

    “We did our work here, and I think history will judge it well,” said embattled Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who is risking his own job to marshal the package to passage.

    Biden, in a statement, thanked Johnson, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and the bipartisan coalition of lawmakers “who voted to put our national security first.”

    “I urge the Senate to quickly send this package to my desk so that I can sign it into law and we can quickly send weapons and equipment to Ukraine to meet their urgent battlefield needs,” the president said.

    President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine said he was “grateful” to both parties in the House and “personally Speaker Mike Johnson for the decision that keeps history on the right track,” he said on X.

    “Thank you, America!” he said on X, formerly Twitter.

    The weekend scene presented a striking display of congressional action after months of dysfunction and stalemate fueled by Republicans, who hold the majority but are deeply split over foreign aid, particularly for Ukraine as it fights Russia’s invasion. Johnson relied on Democratic support to ensure the military and humanitarian package won approval.

    The morning opened with a somber and serious debate and unusual sense of purpose as Republican and Democratic leaders united to urge quick approval, saying that would ensure the United States supported its allies and remained a leader on the world stage. The House’s visitor galleries crowded with onlookers.

    “The eyes of the world are upon us, and history will judge what we do here and now,” said Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee

    Passage through the House cleared away the biggest hurdle to Biden’s funding request, first made in October as Ukraine’s military supplies began to run low. The GOP-controlled House struggled for months over what to do, first demanding that any assistance be tied to policy changes at the U.S.-Mexico order, only to immediately reject a bipartisan Senate offer along those very lines.

    Reaching an endgame has been an excruciating lift for Johnson that has tested both his resolve and his support among Republicans, with a small but growing number now openly urging his removal from the speaker’s office. Yet congressional leaders cast the votes as a turning point in history — an urgent sacrifice as U.S. allies are beleaguered by wars and threats from continental Europe to the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific.

    “Sometimes when you are living history, as we are today, you don’t understand the significance of the actions of the votes that we make on this House floor, of the effect that it will have down the road,” said New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “This is a historic moment.”

    Opponents, particularly the hard-right Republicans from Johnson’s majority, argued that the U.S. should focus on the home front, addressing domestic border security and the nation’s rising debt load, and they warned against spending more money, which largely flows to American defense manufacturers, to produce weaponry used overseas.

    Still, Congress has seen a stream of world leaders visit in recent months, from Zelenskyy to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, all but pleading with lawmakers to approve the aid. Globally, the delay left many questioning America’s commitment to its allies.

    At stake has also been one of Biden’s top foreign policy priorities — halting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advance in Europe. After engaging in quiet talks with Johnson, the president quickly endorsed Johnson’s plan, paving the way for Democrats to give their rare support to clear the procedural hurdles needed for a final vote.

    “We have a responsibility, not as Democrats or Republicans, but as Americans to defend democracy wherever it is at risk,” Jeffries said during the debate.

    While aid for Ukraine will likely win a majority in both parties, a significant number of progressive Democrats are expected to vote against the bill aiding Israel as they demand an end to the bombardment of Gaza that has killed thousands of civilians.

    At the same time, Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has loomed large over the fight, weighing in from afar via social media statements and direct phone calls with lawmakers as he tilts the GOP to a more isolationist stance with his “America First” brand of politics.

    Ukraine’s defense once enjoyed robust, bipartisan support in Congress, but as the war enters its third year, a bulk of Republicans oppose further aid. Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., offered an amendment to zero out the money, but it was rejected.

    At one point, Trump’s opposition essentially doomed the bipartisan Senate proposal on border security. This past week, Trump also issued a social media post that questioned why European nations were not giving more money to Ukraine, though he spared Johnson from criticism and said Ukraine’s survival was important.

    Still, the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus has derided the legislation as the “America Last” foreign wars package and urged lawmakers to defy Republican leadership and oppose it because the bills do not include border security measures.

    Johnson’s hold on the speaker’s gavel has also grown more tenuous in recent days as three Republicans, led by Greene, supported a “motion to vacate” that can lead to a vote on removing the speaker. Egged on by far-right personalities, she is also being joined by a growing number of lawmakers including Reps. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who is urging Johnson to voluntarily step aside, and Paul Gosar, R-Ariz.

    The package includes several Republican priorities that Democrats endorse, or at least are willing to accept. Those include proposals that allow the U.S. to seize frozen Russian central bank assets to rebuild Ukraine; impose sanctions on Iran, Russia, China and criminal organizations that traffic fentanyl; and legislation to require the China-based owner of the popular video app TikTok to sell its stake within a year or face a ban in the United States.

    Still, the all-out push to get the bills through Congress is a reflection not only of politics, but realities on the ground in Ukraine. Top lawmakers on national security committees, who are privy to classified briefings, have grown gravely concerned about the situation in recent weeks. Russia has increasingly used satellite-guided gliding bombs — which allow planes to drop them from a safe distance — to pummel Ukrainian forces beset by a shortage of troops and ammunition.

    [ad_2]

    Stephen Groves, Lisa Mascaro, The Associated Press

    Source link

  • Russian rockers opposed to Ukraine war face deportation home from Thailand as Kremlin aims to ‘frighten everyone living abroad’

    Russian rockers opposed to Ukraine war face deportation home from Thailand as Kremlin aims to ‘frighten everyone living abroad’

    [ad_1]

    Members of a self-exiled Russian rock group known for opposing Moscow’s war in Ukraine face possible deportation home after being arrested in Thailand for breaking immigration rules.

    Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Saturday accused them of sponsoring terrorism by publicly supporting Ukraine, raising concerns they may face criminal charges in Russia. The Russian consul in Phuket said that they’ll be sent to Bangkok for deportation based on their citizenship.

    With four members of the Bi-2 band holding Israeli passports — including one who is also an Australian citizen — the issue has become a diplomatic headache for Thai authorities and will likely alarm Kremlin opponents who fled abroad. Russian artists critical of the government have encountered increasing difficulties in performing overseas, with opponents of President Vladimir Putin alleging a campaign to intimidate and silence them.

    Since his invasion of Ukraine, Putin has waged an unprecedented crackdown on dissent, jailing or driving his critics into exile. An estimated 1 million Russians left the country in 2022 and 2023, including some prominent anti-war cultural figures, in the largest brain drain since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    Five of the seven Bi-2 members who were detained on Jan. 24 on the Thai resort island of Phuket for holding two concerts without a work visa are Russian citizens. Their manager said Sunday they’re already on their way to the Thai capital by bus. The musicians fear they’ve been targeted for their anti-war stance, according to their defense team.

    Performers Complain

    Maxim Galkin, a comedian now based in Israel, said he was barred from entering the Indonesian island of Bali for a planned show on Saturday despite having received a work visa two days before. Galkin, whose shows in Thailand were recently canceled by owners of the venues, said on Instagram that passport officers in Bali showed him a letter from the Russian government requesting Indonesia keep him out of the country.

    Galkin was fined 100,000 dirhams ($27,225) by the United Arab Emirates over a performance in Dubai in which he proclaimed support for Ukraine, according to the Mash Telegram channel. Russian rap musician Alisher Morgenshtern has said on social media that the Arab country has imposed an entry ban on him.

    Moscow has declared the lead singer of Bi-2, Galkin and Morgenshtern as “foreign agents.”

    The Thai foreign ministry didn’t respond to an emailed request for comment. When asked about the case, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Lior Haiat said Israel “is trying to help” its citizens under arrest in Phuket. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said it’s providing consular assistance to an Australian citizen detained in Thailand.

    The challenges faced by Bi-2 are the result of concerted action by Russia and send a worrying signal, according to Dmitry Gudkov, a Kremlin opponent and former lawmaker who has taken refuge in Cyprus.

    “The authorities want to frighten everyone living abroad to show that they can go after anyone, anywhere,” he said.

    Get the business news that matters most to you with our customizable digest, Fortune Daily. Register to get it delivered free to your inbox.

    [ad_2]

    Bloomberg

    Source link

  • Mild weather has saved Europe this winter. Here’s what we must do to avoid future energy crises

    Mild weather has saved Europe this winter. Here’s what we must do to avoid future energy crises

    [ad_1]

    Mild winter weather in Europe may have given skiers a challenging time on the slopes, but the rest of the continent is breathing a sigh of relief.

    Except for a cold snap in December, most of Europe has enjoyed unseasonably high temperatures during this winter. And with Spring now in sight, we may well avoid an energy crisis that could have created severe disruptions for industries and millions of households across Europe.

    Over the last months, Europe has taken measures to modulate consumption, fill gas storage facilities, and maximize coordination. However, a harsh winter would have posed a significant challenge for everyone.

    In recognizing that, we should be making a concerted effort in the early months of 2023 to make sure energy security is not left to chance next winter and in years to come. It would be foolish to continue to rely on the weather to bail out a European energy system overly dependent on foreign reserves of fossil fuels.

    Currently, close to 80% of the world’s energy needs are met by fossil fuels.

    If ever there was a time to change course and radically reshape how we produce and consume energy, it is now. The ongoing tragedy of the invasion of Ukraine is the latest in a series of wider crises that have oil and gas implications as a common factor.

    2023 is the year to finally break the cycle, through sustained investment and innovation in clean energy generation and electricity networks.

    That’s why at Iberdrola we’ve set out five clear areas for action this year–five fundamentals for faster progress toward green energy security.

    Turbocharging the deployment of renewable energy

    Wind and solar farms are an increasingly common sight, but the work of decarbonizing power generation is far from over. Even the U.K., where huge progress has been made in the deployment of renewable energies in the last years, still relied on gas and coal for 40% to 50% of its power generation mix in 2022.

    One of the biggest barriers to adding more renewables to the energy mix remains planning and permitting. Up until now, too many countries have announced renewable energy targets and ambitions without considering the broader context. We need more than rhetoric. We need the mechanisms to deliver renewables, which must be embedded and prioritized in planning policies and environmental permitting processes.

    More renewable energy generation is needed, but if the power grids that carry this clean energy aren’t up to scratch then the investment is pointless. We need sustained, well-planned investment in these networks.

    Modernizing power grids

    Globally, renewable energy generation will increase five-fold by 2040. Levels of electricity demand will also surge through greater use of electric cars and low-carbon heating. In the U.S. alone, the electric grid will need to expand by at least 60% by 2030. Based on historical developments, this represents a century’s worth of work to be completed in less than a decade.

    Power grids are the backbone for the delivery of electric heat and transport–the glue that holds our energy system together. Again, planning and permitting is a major culprits in the lag to date. Regulators that oversee energy networks across the globe are increasingly recognizing the need to be more agile, more far-sighted, and more willing to embrace “no regrets” investment–but there is still room for improvement.

    Green hydrogen

    This fuel, crucial to decarbonizing key parts of the heavy industry and transport sectors, has been a hot topic of conversation. Now is the time for meaningful action to scale up the deployment of hydrogen produced from renewable energy–the only truly sustainable type (and increasingly competitive compared to blue or grey hydrogen, which are produced from fossil fuels).

    For green hydrogen to help sectors like ammonia or methanol production decarbonize, it must be given a level playing field. Green hydrogen is currently more expensive to produce (from renewable energy) than grey hydrogen (from fossil fuels). However,  grey hydrogen comes at the cost of high carbon emissions and keeps us reliant on fossil fuels.

    Innovation

    The importance of innovation at scale to drive the optimal deployment of renewables, networks, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems cannot be overstated. At Iberdrola, we recently published our plans to double spending on innovation by 2030.

    Encouragingly, the International Energy Agency recently said that global government energy research and development spending was 5% higher in 2021 than it was in 2020. This is still not enough. Companies and governments need to continue to be brave, despite a harsher recessionary environment and tightening investment conditions.

    Finally, we need to keep our eyes on the long-term prize of decarbonization. 2022 was characterized by short-term, reactive, and often unpredictable government interventions in the energy market: confusingly constructed windfall taxes, cliff-edge price support schemes, and reversions to old, polluting technologies at the eleventh hour.

    2023 needs to be different. It is the year to show leadership, be decisive, and set us all on a sustainable path out of a crisis caused by overdependence on fossil fuels.

    To protect citizens and our economies in future years, we must trust our better judgment, rather than depend on luck.

    Ignacio Galán is the executive chairman of Iberdrola.

    The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

    More must-read commentary published by Fortune:

    Learn how to navigate and strengthen trust in your business with The Trust Factor, a weekly newsletter examining what leaders need to succeed. Sign up here.

    [ad_2]

    Ignacio Galán

    Source link

  • The last American venture capitalist in Beijing: Here are the strategic miscalculations undermining America’s technology competition with China

    The last American venture capitalist in Beijing: Here are the strategic miscalculations undermining America’s technology competition with China

    [ad_1]

    On Oct. 10, the Biden administration announced a series of sanctions aimed at cutting off the flow of American talent and equipment to the Chinese semiconductor industry. The policy marked a significant departure from the administration’s initial forays which targeted extending American leadership in the industry via funding grants, such as the $100 billion CHIPS and Science Act.

    The latest actions make clear that the U.S. feels it must couple defensive and offensive action to “maintain as large of a lead as possible” over China, as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described. What is becoming clear, however, is that the Americans have already lost the initiative in many core technology-enabled areas.

    Since 2017, the U.S. government has pursued a strategic “decoupling” whereby American economic and technological systems were to be disentangled from China. Many of the resulting sanctions, especially on the Chinese tech industry, foreshadowed those now being taken against Russia.

    Putin’s descent into global pariah status has been a long time coming–yet the effectiveness of these sanctions has revealed the unintended consequences of sanctions against China. As one of the last American VCs in China and the son of the U.S. Air Force pilot who flew Henry Kissinger to Beijing, I have seen firsthand the nuance of our relationship.

    To be clear, the U.S.-China relationship has significant tensions. Nevertheless, China is not Russia.

    To start, decoupling pushed China further towards technological self-sufficiency, illuminating China’s technological vulnerabilities and providing a window to bridge these gaps. The effectiveness of future sanctions will be muted compared to those now being taken against Russia. This divergence will not only be a result of the size and sophistication of the Chinese economy–but also because America gave China years of lead time to prepare.

    Sanctions on Russia were significantly strengthened precisely because America still controls Russia’s digital rails (operating systems and app stores). America’s decoupling policy needlessly made China fully aware of these vulnerabilities, spurring the Chinese to protect themselves and ultimately extend their commercial and political influence. 

    In the field of semiconductors, human talent, private and public capital, and regulatory support mobilized en masse are enabling China to leap rungs on the evolutionary ladder of chip development. A recent report claims SMIC took just two years to leap from 14 nm to 7 nm–faster than TSMC and Samsung, without the most advanced production equipment.

    The history of U.S. unilateral hardware sanctions against the Chinese is not pretty. In the 1990s, we decided to cut China’s access to US-built satellites. Other nations rushed to fill the market gap. Today, China consumes roughly 40% of the world’s chips. The Dutch, Koreans, and others will loathe abandoning this market to align with US sanctions. A former senior National Security Council official recently told me that even typical China hawks such as Japan and India were questioning the logic of the recent American action, which could actually trigger a rush from other nations to design-out U.S. products as quickly as possible, so as to not fall within the sanctions guidelines. The net effect here is clear “self-harm,” as a senior former NSC official told me this week.

    Sanctions on China have also impacted America’s ability to win hearts, minds, and wallets globally. Decoupling actually encouraged Chinese dominance in other battleground markets by forcing Chinese tech to take ownership over app stores, hardware, and operating systems that were historicaly ceded to the Americans.

    In 2019, Google forcibly removed its operating system and app store from Huawei phones after the United States Department of Commerce added the Chinese company to its trade restriction list. By 2020, Huawei announced it would use its internally built HarmonyOS on all of its hardware and would look to replace Google Play Store with its own AppGallery.

    Once American-controlled app stores are removed from emerging market phones, Chinese companies can pre-load or provide exclusive access to Chinese applications, rather than their American competitors. Imagine a Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, or Techno user in Africa only able to access Didi ride-hailing affiliates instead of Uber, Alipay mobile payment partners instead of PayPal, Shein affiliated e-commerce platforms instead of Amazon, TikTok instead of Facebook, Youku instead of YouTube, iQiyi instead of Netflix, etc. Chinese companies control 78% of the African feature phone market and provide almost 70% of Africa’s 4G networks. A significant segment of the African market now uses mobile interfaces that could potentially box out American-built applications. Aside from Samsung, there is no global handset (be it a smartphone or feature phone) alternative to the Chinese-built hardware.

    Growing Chinese tech independence has also transformed U.S.-China competition across the globe. In an era where goodwill and economic ties scale exponentially through digital connectivity, decoupling hinders America’s strategic relationship with countries and global consumers, as it forces them into a binary decision on technology partnerships. Goaded by America to choose sides, many key emerging markets may elect to work with China.

    To understand the growing power of Chinese competition, look no further than TikTok. Since it entered the American market, TikTok has exploded as the dominant both social and entertainment platform. In 2021, Americans spent an average of 25.6 hours a month on TikTok. This dwarfs the average time spent by Americans on TikTok’s competitors: Facebook (16.1 hours) and Instagram (7.7 hours). Only YouTube came close at 22.6 hours a month. Who has Netflix cited as amongst their most formidable competition in a letter to shareholders? TikTok. While TikTok and Netflix deliver different products, they are competing for the same thing: your attention. Time (or to be more specific, screen time) is finite. Netflix has a $10 billion production budget. TikTok’s users generate its content for free. The more time users spend on TikTok, the less there is available for other forms of socializing or entertainment.

    TikTok isn’t just a threat to traditional American social media, entertainment, and news platforms. Google’s two-decade unchallenged dominance as a search engine is eroding, as TikTok’s native search capabilities become the go-to hub for GenZ. The company is now expanding into e-commerce and logistics, threatening American giants like Amazon. 

    The real cost of miscalculating

    TikTok’s growing dominance is emblematic of the advantage that Chinese tech has over its American counterparts in the global competition for users. The dominance of Chinese models isn’t driven just by rock-bottom production costs. Core technology innovation is what drives it, particularly as it relates to TikTok’s highly addictive algorithmic recommendation engine.

    In 2018, I hosted a dinner party between Peter Thiel and Zhang Yiming, the Founder of Tiktok’s parent company Bytedance. When our Chinese interlocutors questioned Thiel about Facebook’s lack of recent innovation, he pointed to a content partnership with Major League Baseball. Zhang laughed. After years of being told Chinese tech was only capable of copying American giants, this moment must have felt vindicating. It was probably as gratifying for Zhang as when Facebook’s TikTok knock-off called Lasso (where Thiel was previously a board member) sputtered and crashed in just under two years.

    American tech giants have effectively been walled off from competition since the mid-2000s. Their near-monopoly position–and the rent-seeking it once enabled–has made them complacent.

    Chinese tech can now challenge Silicon Valley in an increasing number of areas. Models popularized in the Chinese market are a challenge for U.S. tech, particularly in emerging markets. There are hundreds of other Chinese-built, funded, or inspired applications that share TikTok’s voracious ability to latch onto the minds and wallets of consumers. In addition to TikTok, e-commerce platforms such as Shein and AliExpress, short-form video app Kuaishou, and various gaming companies owned by Tencent (like Fortnite) have a combined global customer base on a scale of billions.

    American policy towards China shouldn’t turn into a self-defeating prophecy. We are not locked in a zero-sum dynamic. As the two largest economies and strategic powers in the world, America and China still have much to gain through cooperation.

    There is no path to solving the great global challenges of our time (reversing climate change, pandemic management, nuclear disarmament, avoiding global financial crisis) without China’s direct collaboration. If Russia was to resort to using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, no other nation could play a more pivotal role in staving off World War III than China. Decoupling is a poor policy choice for addressing these myriad and complex tensions.

    Worst of all, the loss of China as a market and increased zero-sum competition with China will reduce economic opportunities for American companies and dim American growth prospects. We will miss globalization when it’s gone.

    Ben Harburg is the managing partner of the global investment firm MSA Capital.

    The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

    More must-read commentary published by Fortune:

    [ad_2]

    Ben Harburg

    Source link