Tesco on Friday said it was selling the retailing banking business of Tesco Bank to Barclays for £600 million initially, and then another £100 million after the settlement of certain regulatory capital amounts and after transaction costs.
The U.K. supermarket chain said it will use majority of a combined £1 billion, which also includes a special dividend previously announced from Tesco Bank, for a share buyback.
It will retain insurance, ATMs, travel money and gift cards, that on a proforma basis account for roughly £80 million to £100 million in operating profit, and said the deal is mildly accretive to earnings per share.
Barclays said it’s acquiring credit cards, unsecured personal loans, deposits and the operating infrastructure that includes £8.3 billion of unsecured lending balances with a credit quality consistent with its existing U.K. portfolios. The business it’s buying had an adjusted operating profit of approximately £85 million in the 12 months ended February 2023.
Barclays also will enter into an exclusive strategic partnership with Tesco for an initial period of 10 years to market and distribute credit cards, unsecured personal loans and deposits using the Tesco brand, paying £50 million per year.
Tesco TSCO, +0.89%
shares have dropped 3% this year while Barclays BARC, -1.02%
shares have declined by 7%.
Barclays lowered its U.K. net interest margin guidance for 2023 as it posted third-quarter results.
The British bank on Tuesday said its now expects its net interest margin for Barclays U.K. to come between 3.05% and 3.10%. It had guided for a 2023 margin of no more than 3.20% at its half-year results in July with a view of around 3.15%.
The lender said its net interest margin for the three months ended Sept. 30 was 3.04%, following a 3.22% margin for the second quarter.
August was a hot month and it wasn’t just about the weather. Financial markets are now bracing for what’s likely to be a rebound in headline U.S. inflation next week, fueled by higher energy prices.
Barclays BARC, +0.18%,
BofA Securities BAC, +0.62%,
and TD Securities expect August’s consumer price index to reflect a 0.6% monthly rise, up from the 0.2% monthly readings seen in July and in June. In addition, they put the annual CPI inflation rate at 3.6% or 3.7% for last month, which compares with the 3.2% and 3% figures reported respectively for the prior two months.
While Federal Reserve policy makers and analysts are loath to read too much into one report, August’s CPI has the potential to disrupt expectations that getting back to the central bank’s 2% target will be easy. Inflation has instead been nudging back up since June, with the likely rebound in August being regarded as primarily driven by the energy sector. What now remains to be seen is how much longer energy prices will remain elevated and whether they’ll begin to feed into narrower measures of inflation that matter most to the Fed.
“We’re going to see a spike in gas prices and other commodity prices driven by supply cuts, which means headline CPI goes back up,” said Alex Pelle, a U.S. economist for Mizuho Securities in New York. Via phone on Friday, Pelle said that prospects for a hotter August CPI report have already been factored in by financial markets, with all three major U.S. stock indexes heading for weekly losses.
How investors react to next Wednesday’s data will likely come down to whether the rebound in headline figures is seen as “a one-off” or something that gets repeated, and “what that means for the bottoming off of inflation,” Pelle said. “The equity market is going to have some trouble in the fourth quarter after a pretty impressive first half. Earnings expectations are still pretty high, but the macro-driven backdrop is challenging.”
Rising energy prices in August have already spilled into the month of September, with gasoline reaching the highest seasonal level in more than a decade this week. Voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia are a major contributing factor curtailing the supply of crude oil into year-end, and Goldman Sachs has warned that oil could climb above $100 a barrel.
In financial markets, there’s one group of traders which is telegraphing that the final mile of the road toward 2% inflation won’t be smooth.
Traders of derivatives-like instruments known as fixings anticipate that the next five CPI reports, including August’s, will produce annual headline inflation rates above 3%. Though policy makers care more about core readings that strip out volatile food and energy prices, they’re aware of how much headline figures can impact the public’s expectations.
Source: Bloomberg. The maturity column reflects the month and year of upcoming CPI reports. The forwards column reflects the year-ago period from which the year-over-year rate is based.
At BofA Securities, U.S. economist Stephen Juneau said August’s CPI won’t necessarily change his firm’s view that inflation is likely to move lower next year and fall back to the Fed’s target without the need for a recession. BofA Securities expects just one more Fed rate hike in November and will maintain that view if August’s CPI report comes in as he expects, Juneau said via phone.
After stripping out volatile food and energy items, BofA Securities, along with Barclays and TD Securities, expects August’s core CPI readings to come in at 0.2% month-over-month — matching June and July’s levels — and to fall to 4.3% on an annual basis.
Based on core measures, August’s report wouldn’t “change the narrative all that much: Everything points to a moderation in price growth,” Pelle said. “There’s a reason why food and energy are typically excluded,” and “we don’t want to put too much stock into one month.”
As of Friday afternoon, all three major U.S. stock indexes were headed higher, with the S&P 500 attempting to snap a three-day losing streak. Dow industrials DJIA,
the S&P 500 SPX
and Nasdaq Composite COMP
were respectively on track for weekly losses of 0.7%, 1.2%, and 1.7%. They’re still up for the year by more than 4%, 16% and 31%.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields turned were little changed on Friday as fed funds futures traders priced in a 93% chance of no action by the Fed at its next policy meeting in less than two weeks, and a more-than-50% likelihood of the same for November and December — which would leave the Fed’s main policy rate target between 5.25%-5.5%.
“There is a risk that investors are too complacent about the inflation report,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Elm Grove, Wis. “We might not get to 2% inflation as quickly as many hope.”
There is room for a continued selloff in U.S. Treasurys which has already pushed 10- and 30-year yields to their highest levels since 2007 and 2011, according to researchers at Barclays.Though the recent selloff took a breather on Friday, the steady drive higher in long-dated yields which unfolded this week left observers warning that the era of low rates may be firmly behind the U.S. as a new normal appears to take shape in the bond market. Long-term rates yields are just beginning to enter ranges that have been historically consistent with where they traded during the early 2000s.Read: Why Treasury yields keep rising,…
Barclays PLC said Monday that Chief Executive Officer C.S. Venkatakrishnan has been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, with treatment expected to last 12 to 16 weeks.
The FTSE 100-listed bank said the cancer has been detected early and the prognosis is good. Mr. Venkatakrishnan will continue to actively manage the company during the treatment period.
