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  • Christie’s and Sotheby’s Close 2025 With a Market Rebound Fueled by Luxury and New Buyers

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    Dynamo Phyllis Kao led Sotheby’s The Now and Contemporary Evening Auction, which scored a $178.5 million result with strong participation from Asia. Julian Cassady Photography / Ali

    After a challenging 2024—marked by a 25 percent contraction in the auction market—both Christie’s and Sotheby’s are closing 2025 with a clear rebound, according to newly released year-end results. Sotheby’s reported projected consolidated sales of $7 billion for 2025, a 17 percent increase over 2024. Christie’s, on a similar upward trajectory, expects to finish the year with $6.2 billion in global sales, up nearly 7 percent from last year’s $5.8 billion and broadly in line with its 2023 total. Following a slow start dampened by subdued May auctions, both houses regained momentum after the summer as the market strengthened, culminating in a multibillion-dollar fall season across London and New York.

    While the blockbuster results of November’s marquee sales may not be sufficient on their own to signal a full recovery—concentrated as they are at the very top of the market—the broader picture reflected in these year-end numbers offers more substantial grounds for optimism. This year’s gains were driven not only by fine-art trophies but also by the continued rise of luxury collectibles and design—categories that are proving especially effective at attracting new buyers, often younger and from emerging markets, and ultimately broadening the base of the market overall.

    Sotheby’s record year, led by trophies and luxury

    Sotheby’s recorded a 26 percent year-over-year increase in auction sales to $5.7 billion, with a sharp acceleration in the second half of the year, which brought in 59 percent more than the same period in 2024. Private sales contributed an additional $1.2 billion, slightly below the prior year but still substantial.

    Fine art sales generated $4.3 billion in revenue for the auction house in 2025, marking a 15 percent increase from the previous year’s downturn. The rebound was fueled by the exceptional quality of consignments secured for the fall season, including record-breaking masterpieces such as the $236.4 million Gustav Klimt—the most expensive work ever sold by Sotheby’s—and the $54.7 million Frida Kahlo, which set a new record for a work by a female artist.

    November’s inaugural sales at the Breuer delivered the year’s biggest revenue surge, with six white-glove auctions totaling $1.173 billion in just a few days. Single-owner collections played a decisive role, including the $527.5 million Lauder collection in New York and the $137 million Karpidas collection earlier in London—high-profile consignments that helped lift market sentiment at a critical moment. “Our strong performance in the second half of the year demonstrates clear momentum in our markets, driven by more high-quality, major collections meeting Sotheby’s record levels of buyer demand,” confirmed Sotheby’s CEO Charles F. Stewart.

    At the same time, Sotheby’s “Another World” strategy—transforming its major regional headquarters from Hong Kong to Paris and now the iconic Breuer building into cross-category boutique destinations—is beginning to deliver tangible results. The luxury sector is becoming increasingly central to the business, generating $2.7 billion in revenue, up 22 percent year-over-year and surpassing $2 billion for the fourth straight year.

    Luxury is also emerging as a primary driver of market expansion, capable of attracting younger collectors while opening doors to new and rising markets. This was underscored by Sotheby’s successful $133 million Collectors’ Week in Abu Dhabi, whose cross-category luxury offerings drew collectors from 35 countries. Of those bidding, 28 percent were new to Sotheby’s and nearly one-third were under the age of 40.

    The $10.1 million sale of Jane Birkin’s original Hermès Birkin in Paris this summer focused attention on both the rising value and estate-planning complexities of luxury collectibles. Sotheby’s also reported a record year for watches, with a $42.8 million white-glove December auction in New York immediately following Collectors’ Week. That sale was led by the record-breaking complete four-piece set of the Patek Philippe Star Caliber 2000, which sold for $11.9 million.

    Jewelry maintained strong momentum in Abu Dhabi and globally, with sales up approximately 18 percent. Meanwhile, RM Sotheby’s automotive division exceeded $1 billion in revenue for the first time, propelled by multiple records—including a 1994 McLaren F1 (chassis 014), the most expensive McLaren ever sold at public auction, and the highest-priced new Ferrari ever to hit the auction block during Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week.

    Sports collectibles continue to attract bidders, but the standout among today’s collectibles may be dinosaurs, as demonstrated by the juvenile Ceratosaurus that soared to $30.5 million at Sotheby’s—more than seven times its low estimate.

    The Design category also continues to gain traction and importance, with 65 percent growth over last year. It closed with a $50.2 million auction earlier this month—the highest total ever for the category—led by Lalanne’s Hippopotame Bar, which reached a record-setting $31.4 million.

    Taken together, these categories are central not only to sustaining the market but to reshaping Sotheby’s identity—from a traditional auction house catering primarily to connoisseurs into a broader luxury-experience destination capable of attracting bidders across multiple price tiers. This represents a key strategy in today’s market. By expanding participation and transaction volume, Sotheby’s can continue to drive revenue growth even as the ability to consistently secure multimillion-dollar fine-art masterpieces—this season included—remains neither guaranteed nor sufficient on its own to support headline results year after year.

    A Christie’s auctioneer gestures from the podium as Mark Rothko’s No. 31 (Yellow Stripe) and its multimillion-dollar currency conversions are displayed on large screens before a packed salesroom.A Christie’s auctioneer gestures from the podium as Mark Rothko’s No. 31 (Yellow Stripe) and its multimillion-dollar currency conversions are displayed on large screens before a packed salesroom.
    Adrien Meyer sells the top lot of The Collection of Robert F. and Patricia G Ross Weis, Mark Rothko’s No. 31 (Yellow Stripe) for $62,160,000. Christie’s

    At Christie’s, the right pricing strategy met sustained bidding

    Christie’s also reported what CEO Bonnie Brennan described as a “healthy and successful year,” with total auction revenue rising 8 percent to $4.7 billion. Combined with $1.5 billion in private sales—representing approximately 24 percent of the total—this brought the auction house’s global sales for 2025 to $6.2 billion, a 7 percent increase from the previous year.

    One of the clearest indicators of how sustained bidding aligns with pricing strategy on the auction-house side is sell-through and sold-by-lot performance—an obsession of Christie’s global director Alex Rotter, as he recently revealed in an interview with ARTnews. Christie’s reported a sell-through rate of 88 percent and a hammer-to-low estimate index of 113 percent, both notably higher than in 2024.

    The Americas remained Christie’s leading market, accounting for 41 percent of total sales with $2.584 billion in value after a 15 percent year-on-year increase. That growth was largely driven by standout consignments in New York, including the $272 million Leonard & Louise Riggio collection in May and the $223 million collection of Robert F. and Patricia G. Ross Weis. The latter was topped by Mark Rothko’s No. 31 (Yellow Stripe), which sold for $62.1 million and helped push November’s marquee sales to a record $964.5 million—the highest in three years.

    The MEA region (Europe, Middle East, Africa) also expanded its share of Christie’s global total, rising from 32 percent in 2024 to 36 percent in 2025, with $1.435 billion in sales. Asia-Pacific, by contrast, declined for the second consecutive year, generating $686 million—5 percent less than the year before—and now accounts for 23 percent of Christie’s global business. Sales for Asian Art and World Art were also down 6 percent this year.

    The 20th and 21st century category remains Christie’s core revenue driver, generating $2.859 billion in 2025, a 6 percent increase from the previous year. However, the Classics and Old Masters segments posted even stronger growth, generating $285 million and $182 million, with increases of 15 percent and 24 percent, respectively. Leading the Old Master category was Canaletto’s Venice, the Return of the Bucintoro on Ascension Day, which sold in July in London for a record-setting £31.9 million ($43.9 million).

    Meanwhile, the importance of the Luxury and Automotive markets continues to rise. Luxury sales reached $795 million, up 17 percent from 2024, while automotive sales through Gooding Christie’s totaled $234 million—an increase of 14 percent and the highest-grossing year in the company’s history.

    Crucially, luxury is proving to be Christie’s most effective tool for attracting new and younger buyers. It accounted for 38 percent of new bidders in 2025, outperforming even the 20th and 21st century category, which contributed 33 percent. Asia-Pacific buyers in particular were highly engaged, with regional president Rahul Kadakia noting that they contributed 37 percent of global Luxury auction spend. This underscores the strong potential of Eastern markets—especially Southeast Asia—when engaged through categories aligned with their growing and increasingly affluent populations.

    Christie’s also saw increased engagement from the Indian diaspora and broader participation across the Asia-Pacific region, which remains one of the strongest growth opportunities alongside rising spending power in the Middle East, particularly in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

    For Christie’s—as for all the major auction houses—sustaining revenue growth hinges on expanding the market: both by tapping rising geographies and by attracting new generations of collectors capable of growing with the brand.

    The demographic shifts are promising. In 2025, 46 percent of new bidders and buyers were millennials or younger, up roughly 5 percent from the previous year. The female client base also grew by about 10 percent. These trends align with wealth management forecasts and the 2025 Art Basel & UBS Survey of Global Collecting, which found that high-net-worth women outspent their male peers by an average of 46 percent on art and antiques in 2024. Women were also more likely than men to collect digital works, pieces by unknown artists, and emerging talent—pointing to both rising influence and evolving preferences that are reshaping the market.

    All of this is unfolding in the context of the so-called “Great Wealth Transfer,” as economists forecast trillions of dollars passing from older generations to younger ones, boosting disposable income and discretionary spending among buyers already demonstrating a strong interest in collecting. Women are projected to inherit a substantial share of this wealth—some estimates suggest up to 70 percent—and by 2030, they are expected to control trillions in investable assets, a dramatic rise compared to previous decades.

    Equally critical to attracting new buyers is the diversification of offerings across price points and categories, paired with technology designed to reach a generation that lives and buys online. In 2025, 63 percent of Christie’s new buyers made their first purchase online, where the average price (excluding wine) rose 14 percent year-on-year to $22,700.

    Christie’s plans to continue investing in tech through 2026, including its collaboration with Dubbl on the Christie’s Select app for Apple Vision Pro, which offers immersive, spatial auction previews, and the ongoing Art+Tech Summits.

    But attracting new buyers is only half the equation. Retention and long-term engagement—especially with younger collectors—are equally important. New buyers acquired in 2024 returned in 2025 and increased their total spend by 54 percent, with 22 percent purchasing in a different category from their original acquisition. These figures point to encouraging momentum not just for Christie’s but for the broader art and collectibles market, suggesting that even amid recalibration, a more diverse audience is emerging—one ready to support the market’s next chapter, even as tastes and trends continue, as always, to evolve.

    Christie’s and Sotheby’s Close 2025 With a Market Rebound Fueled by Luxury and New Buyers

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    Elisa Carollo

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  • 14 FinAi execs to watch in 2026

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    Banks, fintechs, credit unions and tech giants are looking to leadership to spearhead AI strategy as the technology continues to improve speed, efficiency and overall productivity in the industry.  FI leaders are experimenting with AI, deploying it and hiring talent to support AI initiatives, which have become priorities.  This year, more “chief” AI titles have […]

    The post 14 FinAi execs to watch in 2026 appeared first on FinAi News.

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    Whitney McDonald

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  • Executive moves: Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Cullen/Frost

    Executive moves: Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Cullen/Frost

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    Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase’s chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, is leaving the bank, according to an internal memo obtained by Bloomberg News.

    Kolanovic, who has been at JPMorgan for 19 years, is “exploring other opportunities,” the memo stated. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas will lead market strategy and become chief market strategist, overseeing cross-asset, equity and macro. Hussein Malik will be the sole head of global research.

    Stephen Dulake and Nicholas Rosato will co-lead fundamental research, a new team that brings together credit and equity research.

    A JPMorgan spokesperson declined to comment. Kolanovic, Lakos-Bujas, Malik, and Rosato didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Dulake declined to comment.

    The move follows a disastrous two-year stretch of stock-market calls by Kolanovic. He was steadfastly bullish in much of 2022 as the S&P 500 Index sank 19% and strategists across Wall Street lowered their expectations for equities. He then turned bearish just as the market bottomed, missing last year’s 24% surge in the S&P 500 as well as the 14% gain in the first half of this year. — Alexandra Semenova, Bloomberg News

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    Editorial Staff

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  • UBS, Credit Suisse merger by 2026 | Bank Automation News

    UBS, Credit Suisse merger by 2026 | Bank Automation News

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    UBS continues to integrate Credit Suisse into its operations, dealing with high general and administrative costs related to the acquisition.  “There is a significant amount of restructuring and optimization that must take place over the next three years before we can harvest the full benefits of the combination,” Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti said during UBS’ […]



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    Vaidik Trivedi

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  • UBS Is Hosting a Major Exhibition of Lucian Freud Works

    UBS Is Hosting a Major Exhibition of Lucian Freud Works

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    Lucian Freud, Double Portrait, (1988-90). © The Lucian Freud Archive/Bridgeman Images/Courtesy UBS Art Collection

    UBS, a Switzerland-based global financial services firm, is drawing from its art collection to show more than 40 works by British painter Lucian Freud. The pieces will be collectively displayed for the first time in the U.S. in Lucian Freud: Works from the UBS Art Collection, which opened yesterday (Feb. 1) at the firm’s New York gallery.

    Known as one of the great portraitists of his era, Freud specialized in figurative art and is the grandson of psychoanalysis founder Sigmund Freud. The UBS show is largely dominated by his late etchings. Created by Freud using an unconventional process that involved propping up etching plates on easels, they range from still lifes and landscapes to portraits and nudes. Two of the artist’s oil paintings, his 1990 Double Portrait and 1999 Head of a Naked Girl, are also included in the exhibition.

    SEE ALSO: Is Matthew Wong the 21st Century’s van Gogh?

    “We are pleased to share with the public this exceptional body of work, which defies perceived norms of corporate collecting,” said Mary Rozell, global head of the UBS Art Collection, in a statement. “Like most of Freud’s oeuvre, the artworks on display are uncompromising and challenging to view, and we hope they will spark both conversation and introspection.”

    Oil portrait of a woman's faceOil portrait of a woman's face
    Lucian Freud, Head of a Naked Girl, (1999). © The Lucian Freud Archive/Bridgeman Images/Courtesy UBS Art Collection

    The free exhibition is taking place in the UBS Art Gallery, which is in the lobby of the firm’s New York headquarters on 1285 Avenue of the Americas. Opened in 2019, the gallery is home to permanent installations with work by artists like Frank Stella, Sarah Morris, Fred Eversley and Howard Hodgkin and hosts three to four annual rotating exhibitions.

    In addition to its Freud works, the UBS Art Collection contains more than 30,000 contemporary pieces by artists like Jean-Michel Basquiat, Roy Lichtenstein, Ed Ruscha and Cindy Sherman. Having first started collecting contemporary art in the 1960s, the firm now often loans out its work to major institutions including New York’s Museum of Modern Art, the Smithsonian American Art Museum and London’s National Portrait Gallery.

    UBS has been managing $5.5 trillion worth of invested assets since its 2023 acquisition of Credit Suisse (CS), which had its own 10,000-piece corporate art collection. In addition to the pieces hanging in its gallery, UBS displays its art holdings across its global offices to both boost morale and impress clients. It is also affiliated with art fair behemoth Art Basel, acting as its global lead partner and co-publishing reports on the art market and collecting activity.

    Outside view of colorful lobby of large corporate buildingOutside view of colorful lobby of large corporate building
    The UBS Art Gallery is located in the lobby of the company’s New York headquarters. Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

    Financial service companies and corporate art collections

    While UBS’s vast collection of contemporary art might come as a surprise, financial service companies have long been some of the most active art patrons. The modern corporate art collection as we know it was pioneered by David Rockefeller. In 1959, while serving as president of Chase Manhattan Bank, he began accumulating artwork under the “Art at Work” program. Now known as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the company’s collection is among the most well-established of any financial services company and helped create a new way for banks to display their ability to manage wealth.

    “What’s most important about our collection is not how much we’ve accumulated, but what, in the process of living with art for the past four decades, we’ve learned,” wrote William B. Harrison, Jr., then Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of JP Morgan Chase, in the forward of Art At Work: Forty Years of the JP Morgan Chase Collection.

    From the Royal Bank of Canada to Spain’s CaixaBank, corporate art collections have become a globally accepted cultural phenomenon. One of the more significant holdings includes the 60,000 works owned by Bank of America (BAC), which focuses on contemporary artists and has hosted shared exhibitions with nearly 200 museums worldwide. Deutsche Bank (DB) houses much of its 57,000-piece collection in the Deutsche Bank Towers in Frankfurt, where art is arranged by region and entire floors of the 60-story towers are devoted to singular artists. And that’s not all. According to the International Art Alliance, there are more than a thousand major corporate art collections around the globe.

    UBS Is Hosting a Major Exhibition of Lucian Freud Works



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    Alexandra Tremayne-Pengelly

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  • Alphabet, Heico, Bluebird Bio, Plug Power, UBS, FedEx, and More Stock Market Movers

    Alphabet, Heico, Bluebird Bio, Plug Power, UBS, FedEx, and More Stock Market Movers

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    Stock futures traded flat Tuesday, a day after the S&P 500 finished up 0.5% and moved closer to its all-time. The broad market index stands just 1.2% below its record of 4,796.56 reached in early January 2022.

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  • Credit Suisse reinstates independent overseer for Nazi-account probe

    Credit Suisse reinstates independent overseer for Nazi-account probe

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    (Bloomberg) –Credit Suisse reinstated Neil Barofsky as an independent ombudsperson to oversee the Swiss bank’s review into its history of servicing Nazi-linked accounts. 

    The decision was announced Monday by the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, which has been probing Credit Suisse’s handling of the internal investigation.  

    “A clear-eyed and historically complete evaluation of Credit Suisse’s servicing of Nazi-linked accounts demands painful facts to be met head on, not swept aside,” Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island said in a statement. “At our insistence, Credit Suisse has agreed to dig deeper into its own history, and Mr. Barofsky will again oversee this review.”

    Barofsky, a former inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program and frequent Wall Street critic, was removed as ombudsman by Credit Suisse in November 2022. While he was initially given the task of producing a public report on his findings, the Budget Committee obtained the document only after issuing a subpoena, it said earlier this year. The report alleged the bank had narrowed the scope of the inquiry and failed to follow through on some leads.

    In April, the Swiss bank said its probe didn’t support key claims about Nazi-linked accounts made by the Simon Wiesenthal Center in 2020 and that the report prepared by Barofsky contained “numerous factual errors” and other flaws.

    After the Senate panel in July criticized Credit Suisse for failing to follow through on pledges to cooperate, the bank provided an unredacted version of the Barofsky report to the legislators. That showed the bank had failed to review all available records, according to the senators.

    Credit Suisse was bought by rival UBS Group AG earlier this year. A spokeswoman for UBS didn’t have an immediate comment.

    The spat over the internal Credit Suisse probe comes about a quarter century after the two big Swiss banks reached a $1.25 billion settlement with victims of the Holocaust. That accord resolved claims that the banks failed to return assets to survivors of Adolf Hitler’s genocide and heirs of victims. It also covered claims by people whose assets were looted by the Nazis and deposited in Swiss banks.

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  • UBS Issues $3.5B in AT1 Bonds in First Issuance Since Credit Suisse Acquisition

    UBS Issues $3.5B in AT1 Bonds in First Issuance Since Credit Suisse Acquisition

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    By Miriam Mukuru

    UBS Group issues $3.5 billion in Additional Tier 1 bonds in the first issuance since the acquisition of Credit Suisse.

    It is comprised of two tranches of $1.75 billion of 9.25% perpetual notes redeemable at the option of UBS after five years and $1.75 billion of 9.25% perpetual notes redeemable after 10 years.

    “Each issue is a direct, unsecured and subordinated obligation of UBS Group AG,” it said.

    “The notes provide that, following approval of a minimum amount of conversion capital by UBS Group AG’s shareholders, upon occurrence of a trigger event or a viability event, the notes will be converted into UBS Group AG ordinary shares rather than be subject to write-down,” UBS added.

    Write to Miriam Mukuru at miriam.mukuru@wsj.com

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  • Global Risk Of Housing Bubbles Deflates Sharply [Infographic]

    Global Risk Of Housing Bubbles Deflates Sharply [Infographic]

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    The global risk of housing bubbles has decreased sharply in 2023. A report released Wednesday by Swiss bank UBS concludes that out of 25 cities surveyed, only two were at risk of a housing bubble this year, down from nine each in the previous two reports. The data shows that even places known for their chronically high prices of housing exited bubble territory and were now merely classified as overpriced, including Tel Aviv, Hong Kong, Frankfurt and Toronto.

    UBS identified rising interest rates causing the end of cheap financing in the real estate sector for the change. Inflation-adjusted international home prices experienced the sharpest decrease since the 2008 global financial crisis as a result of these changes. The report states that especially the most unaffordable markets couldn’t take the added pressure from increased interest and slumped.

    Two cities most notorious for unaffordable home prices retained their bubble risk—Zurich and Tokyo. The leader of the list, Zurich, saw a slight decrease in its score, while Tokyo saw a slight increase. The Swiss market in general has not fully adapted to the changed market conditions yet, according to UBS. This also becomes visible in the virtually unchanged score of Geneva, which caused it to rise in rank opposite other cities where bubble risk decreased substantially. For Tokyo, the report cites the market’s defensive qualities which remain attractive to foreign investors.

    One way bubble risk can end as a result of interest rates giving prices another push is overwhelmed buyers pivoting back to the rental market, dampening demand and house prices in the process. This is especially likely in markets where renting is somewhat cheaper than buying. Another way a correction can take place is when cities have a lot of buy-to-let activity, which lost profitability in the course of rising interest rates. This can free up capacity in the housing market and also lower prices.

    Decline all around

    In some cities, the decline of housing bubble risk started earlier than 2023. Hong Kong, long listed among the top cities for housing bubble risk, decline to rank 5 in 2022 and rank 6 this year—exiting bubble territory faster than other cities. This is due to a compounded crisis of downward pressures not restricted to high interest, in this case demand gaps due to isolating Covid-19 restrictions, economic turmoil in Mainland China as well as an aging society.

    Miami remained the highest-ranked U.S. city in 2023—at a score of 1.38 rated just 0.13 index points below bubble risk territory. The city also saw only very slight changes from 2022—unlike other cities which are now found much lower down the ranking. Housing prices in Miami have continued an increase that is above the U.S. average. The relative strength of the city’s housing market can be explained by its comparably low income-to-house-price levels and population influx to the U.S. sun belt. New York and San Francisco are now found in the fair-valued category after experiencing Covid-19 and quality-of-life related deflators on top of pressure from interest. Los Angeles is the only housing market in the U.S. other than Miami that UBS views as overvalued, but it has also become more affordable since last year.

    Charted by Statista

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    Katharina Buchholz, Contributor

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  • UBS cuts about a dozen US bankers as part of its Credit Suisse integration | Bank Automation News

    UBS cuts about a dozen US bankers as part of its Credit Suisse integration | Bank Automation News

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    UBS Group AG this week eliminated about a dozen jobs in its US investment bank as part of its integration of Credit Suisse, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Jeff Rose, UBS’s global co-head of consumer products and retail, and Patrick Dixon, a managing director, were among employees impacted, people with knowledge of […]

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    Bloomberg News

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  • Credit Suisse Drops Real-Estate Fund IPO Plan

    Credit Suisse Drops Real-Estate Fund IPO Plan

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    By Adria Calatayud

    Credit Suisse said it has abandoned its plan to launch an initial public offering for its Credit Suisse 1a Immo PK real-estate fund due to low trading volumes for listed Swiss real-estate funds.

    The Swiss bank–now part of UBS Group–said Thursday that Credit Suisse Funds decided not to carry out the IPO, which had been planned for the fourth quarter of 2023, and that this will allow the newly formed real-estate unit within UBS Asset Management to coordinate its offer of real-estate investment services.

    A fall in trading volumes on the market for listed Swiss real-estate funds would likely have meant higher volatility in the event of a listing, Credit Suisse said.

    The bank last year postponed the IPO of the fund, citing market conditions and the high volatility.

    Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com

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  • Nasdaq is making a big change to its most popular index. Here’s how it might impact your portfolio.

    Nasdaq is making a big change to its most popular index. Here’s how it might impact your portfolio.

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    Big Tech has gotten too big for Nasdaq’s liking.

    So the exchange has decided to make some changes to the Nasdaq 100 index, its most popular index, according to company representatives, ostensibly to diminish the concentration risk that accompanies having an index that derives more than half of its value from just seven companies.

    Nasdaq announced late last week that the Nasdaq 100
    NDX,
    +1.24%

    will undergo a special rebalancing that will take effect prior to the market open on July 24. It’s only the third time that Nasdaq has announced such an impromptu rejiggering of how much individual stocks contribute to the index. Although Nasdaq can also reconstitute the index regularly every December, and there’s also a mechanism to rebalance every quarter as well.

    In a statement announcing the move, the exchange alluded to the fact that the largest companies in the technology sector have too much sway over the index’s price. Nasdaq said special rebalancing can be implemented “to address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights.”

    The rebalancing comes at a critical time. The Nasdaq 100 has risen 40% since the start of 2023, largely thanks to the “Magnificent Seven,” a handful of megacap technology names that have powered much of the U.S. stock market’s rally this year.

    These gains have pushed the index to its highest level since mid-January 2022, meaning that Big Tech has now retraced nearly all of last year’s losses, and might soon be headed for the all-time highs from November 2021.

    As of Thursday, the Magnificent Seven stocks — Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +3.53%
    ,
    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.90%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.42%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +1.57%
    ,
    Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.82%
    ,
    Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +3.70%

    and Alphabet Inc.’s Class A
    GOOGL,
    +1.53%

    and Class C
    GOOG,
    +1.62%

    shares — accounted for 55% of the Nasdaq 100’s market capitalization, while the top five names account for more than 45%.

    According to Nasdaq’s official methodology, the goal is to keep the aggregate weighting of the biggest stocks below 40%. In fact, it’s possible that Tesla Inc. surpassing 4.5% of the index earlier this month triggered the Nasdaq’s rebalancing announcement, according to analysts from UBS Group AG
    UBS,
    +1.87%
    .

    Exactly how it plans to accomplish this isn’t yet known. Nasdaq said the new weighting scheme will be unveiled on Friday, likely after the U.S. market close. But the UBS team has an educated guess.

    “The quarterly reviews would dictate that the aggregate weight to securities exceeding 4.5% be set to 40%. If that’s the approach Nasdaq takes, then we’d expect the weights of Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla to be reduced,” the team said in a note shared with MarketWatch.

    For investors trying to anticipate how this might impact their portfolios, here the answers to a few key questions.

    Could the rebalancing kill the U.S. stock market rally?

    Not likely. Or rather: if the rally in Big Tech does falter, history suggests it won’t be because of the rebalancing.

    Here’s more on that from Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, who discussed the topic in commentary emailed to MarketWatch on Wednesday.

    “…[T]here is the natural inclination to think that the upcoming special reweighting is a sign that large cap disruptive tech is set to roll over because a handful of names have so handily outpaced the rest of its notional peers,” Colas said.

    “History suggests otherwise. The last 2 one-off reweights were in 2011 and 1998. Neither proved to be the end of a Nasdaq 100/tech stock bull market. Not even close, really.”

    More immediately, ETF experts expect trading around the rebalancing will be relatively muted.

    “While it sounds scary, Investors are well positioned — this has been well bantered about,” said David Lutz, head of ETF Trading at Jones Trading, in comments emailed to MarketWatch.

    How could this benefit investors?

    Since megacap technology stocks don’t pay much, if anything, in dividends, the rebalancing could increase the amount of dividends that ETF investors receive each year, according to a team of analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Since the largest constituents pay a dividend yield well below the index average, the redistribution of weight from them to the rest of the index will result in a “meaningful boost” to the regular payouts received by investors, which will boost the total return of Nasdaq 100-tracking ETFs and mutual funds.

    Will there be any short-term costs associated with the rebalancing?

    There might be. Since the new index weightings will be announced in advance, investors will have plenty of time to front-run the rebalancing trade.

    Still, there are plenty of hedge funds and proprietary trading firms that run strategies explicitly designed to profit from rebalancing. These firms profits have to come from somewhere, and the logical place would be the fund managers of the Invesco QQQ exchange-traded fund
    QQQ,
    +1.26%

    QQQM,
    +1.27%
    .

    “There are prop traders and hedge funds that run the strategy of providing liquidity to indexes with the expectation that they’ll earn profits,” said Roni Israelov, president and CIO at Wealth Manager NDVR, during a phone interview with MarketWatch.

    “if they are earning profits by providing that liquidity, the expectation is those profits are being paid by investors in those funds.”

    So far at least, markets appear to have taken news of the rebalancing in stride. Megacap technology names tumbled earlier this week, but they’ve since recouped those losses and then some.

    The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +1.15%
    ,
    another Nasdaq index that isn’t quite as heavily weighted toward Big Tech, rose 1.2% to 13,918.96.

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  • UBS inks pact with Swiss government as Credit Suisse deal may close next week

    UBS inks pact with Swiss government as Credit Suisse deal may close next week

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    UBS said Friday that it’s signed a loss protection agreement with the Swiss government covering up to 9 billion francs ($10 billion) of losses once the takeover of Credit Suisse is completed.

    The finalized deal sets the stage for the merger of the Swiss banks to be completed as early as June 12.

    Terms call for the guarantee to only be implemented if UBS takes 5 billion francs of losses from what are called non-core assets of Credit Suisse.

    The protection applies to roughly 3% of the combined assets of the merged bank. UBS is paying the Swiss government an upfront fee of 40 million francs, as well as an annual maintenance fee of 0.4% and a risk premium depending on how much of the guarantee is used. UBS does have the right to terminate the guarantee at any time.

    The per-share value of the UBS offer
    UBS,
    -0.05%

    UBSG,
    -0.25%

    has climbed slightly since the deal was first announced, as it’s now worth 0.81 francs per share, valuing Credit Suisse at 3.2 billion francs, or $3.6 billion.

    UBS agreed to buy its rival for an initially announced 3 billion francs after Credit Suisse
    CS,
    +0.49%

    CSGN,
    -0.20%

    was unable to stem outflows from its wealthy clients.

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  • Deutsche Bank Reports Higher Profit in Tumultuous Quarter

    Deutsche Bank Reports Higher Profit in Tumultuous Quarter

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    Deutsche Bank Reports Higher Profit in Tumultuous Quarter

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  • UBS profit halves due to U.S. litigation, but draws billions new money

    UBS profit halves due to U.S. litigation, but draws billions new money

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    UBS Group AG said Tuesday that earnings declined in the first quarter, hurt by litigation, but that the bank drew in billions in net new money at its global wealth-management business following the news of its acquisition of Credit Suisse Group AG.

    The Swiss bank UBS CH:UBSG said its result was affected by $665 million in provisions related to U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities litigation.

    UBS…

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  • India’s financial system insulated from developments in US, Switzerland: Das

    India’s financial system insulated from developments in US, Switzerland: Das

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    India’s financial system remains “completely” insulated from the recent developments in the US and Switzerland, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.

    The recent developments in the US include the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank due to asset-liability mismatches and their closure. Financial stress at Switzerland’s second largest bank, Credit Suisse, led Swiss authorities to merge it with larger rival UBS.

    At a press conference in Washington on Thursday, Das said at the global level, the recent developments in the banking system in the US and in Switzerland, have once again brought into focus the importance of financial stability and banking sector stability, said a PTI report.

    The Governor was in Washington for the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank along with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

    ‘Very healthy’

    “So far as India is concerned, the Indian banking system remains completely insulated from the developments that have taken place in the US or in Switzerland. Our banking system is resilient, stable and healthy,” Das said.

    “The parameters related to banking, whether it is capital adequacy, or it is the percentage of stressed assets or it is the liquidity coverage ratio of individual banks both at individual level as well as at the systemic level or issues like provision coverage ratio, aspects like net interest margin of banks, profitability of banks, whichever parameter you take into consideration, the Indian banking system continues to be very healthy,” he said.

    Das said as far as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is concerned, over the last few years, “We have significantly improved and tightened our regulation and supervision of the entire banking system, including the non-banking financial companies”. The focus of supervision is on early identification of any buildup of vulnerabilities and not waiting for the crisis to build up, he said.

    In his monetary policy statement last week, Das observed that with the fight against inflation far from over, the global economy is now confronted with serious financial stability challenges from the recent banking sector developments in some advanced economies.

    “This calls for a reappraisal of the responsibilities of the regulators and the regulated entities world over and their collective role in safeguarding the stability of the financial system. While regulators need to identify potential vulnerabilities and take proactive regulatory and supervisory measures, it is incumbent upon the regulated institutions to exercise due diligence in their risk management and corporate governance practices,” he had said.

    They need to pay close attention to asset-liability mismatches and profile of their deposit base, while building up adequate capital buffers and conducting periodic stress tests, he added. 

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  • U.S. stocks have barely budged since last summer. Where will they go next?

    U.S. stocks have barely budged since last summer. Where will they go next?

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    U.S. stocks have shrugged off a number of threats since the start of the year, powering through the worst U.S. bank failures since the 2008 financial crisis, while resisting the pull of rising short-term Treasury yields.

    This helped all three main U.S. equity benchmarks finish the first quarter in the green on Friday, but that doesn’t change the fact that the S&P 500 index, the main U.S. equity benchmark, has barely budged since last summer.

    “The market has handled a lot of gut punches recently and it’s still standing in this range,” said JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America, owner of brokerage firm Tastytrade. “I think that’s a sign that the market is very healthy.”

    The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.44%

    traded at 4,110.41 on Sept. 12, 2022, according to FactSet data, just before aggressive Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates and worrisome inflation data triggered a sharp selloff. By comparison, the index finished Friday’s session at 4,109.31.

    Some equity analysts expect it to take months, or perhaps even longer, for U.S. stocks to break out of this range. Where they might go next also is anyone’s guess.

    Investors likely won’t know until some of the uncertainty that has been plaguing the market over the past year clears up.

    At the top of the market’s wish list is more information about how the Fed’s interest rate hikes are impacting the economy. This will be crucial in determining whether the central bank might need to keep raising interest rates in 2024, several analysts told MarketWatch.

    Stocks are volatile, but stuck in a circle

    The S&P 500 has vacillated in a roughly 600-point range since September, but at the same time, the number of outsize swings from day-to-day has become even more pronounced, making it more difficult to ascertain the health of the market, analysts said.

    The S&P 500 rose or fell by 1% or more in 29 trading sessions in the first quarter, including Friday, when the S&P 500 closed 1.4% higher on the last session of the month and quarter, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    That’s nearly double the quarterly average of just 14.9 days going back to 1928, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 was created in 1957, and performance data taken from before then is based on a historical reconstruction of the index’s performance.

    Stocks also look almost placid in comparison with other assets. For example, Treasurys saw an explosion of volatility in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. The 2-year Treasury yield
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.114%

    logged its largest monthly decline in 15 years in March as a result.

    “You can’t find any clues about where we’re going by watching the S&P 500,” said John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, in a phone interview with MarketWatch. “Ten years ago, you could look at the movement of the S&P 500 and a simple indicator like volume and get a back-of-the-envelope idea of how healthy the market is. But you can’t do that anymore because of all this intraday volatility.”

    See: Stock-option traders are creating explosive volatility in the market. Here’s what that means for your portfolio.

    The S&P 500’s 7% advance in the first quarter of this year has helped to mask weakness underneath the surface. Specifically, only 33% of S&P 500 companies’ shares have managed to outperform the index since the start of the quarter, well below the long-term average, according to figures provided to MarketWatch by analysts at UBS Group UBS.

    Mega stocks, Fed to the rescue?

    If it weren’t for a flight-to-safety rally in large capitalization technology names like Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +1.56%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.50%

    and Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +1.44%
    ,
    the S&P 500 and Nasdaq would likely be in much worse shape.

    Advancing megacap tech stocks have helped the Invesco QQQ
    QQQ,
    +1.66%

    Trust exchange-traded fund, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, enter a fresh bull market in the past week, as the closely watched market gauge closed more than 20% above its 52-week closing low from late December, according to FactSet data. That’s helped to offset weakness in cyclical sectors like financials and real estate.

    Tech behemoths have also benefited from the hype around artificial intelligence platforms like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

    Confusion about the Fed’s quantitative tightening efforts to reduce the size of its balance sheet also helped muddle the outlook for markets.

    For example, the size of the Fed’s balance sheet has increased again in recent weeks as banks have tapped the central bank’s emergency lending programs in the wake of the failure of two regional banks, undoing some of the central bank’s efforts to shrink its balance sheet by allowing some of its Treasury and mortgage-backed bond holdings to mature without reinvesting the proceeds.

    Some analysts said this is akin to sending the market mixed signals.

    “It seems to be both tightening and loosening right now,” said Andrew Adams, an analyst with Saut Strategy, in a recent note to clients.

    What it takes for a break out

    U.S. stocks have remained rangebound for long stretches in the past.

    Beginning in late 2014, the S&P 500 traded in a tight range for roughly two years. Between Jan. 1, 2015 and Nov. 9, 2016, the day after former President Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton to become president of the U.S., the S&P 500 gained less than 100 points, according to FactSet data.

    At the time, equity analysts blamed signs of softening economic activity in China and weakness in the U.S. energy industry for the market’s lackluster performance.

    But after once it became clear that Trump would win the White House, stocks embarked on a steady ascent as investors bet that the Republican economic agenda, which included corporate tax cuts and deregulation, would likely bolster corporate profits.

    It wasn’t until the fourth quarter of 2018 that stocks turned volatile once again as the S&P 500 wiped out its gains from earlier in the year, before ultimately finishing 2018 with a 6.2% drop for the year, according to FactSet.

    As investors brace for a flood of first-quarter corporate earnings in the coming weeks, Kinahan said he expects stocks could remain range bound for at least a few more months.

    “There’s going to be a very cautious outlook still, which should keep us in this range,” he said.

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  • Credit Suisse abetted possible criminal tax evasion, Senate committee alleges

    Credit Suisse abetted possible criminal tax evasion, Senate committee alleges

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    A new Senate Finance Committee report from the Democratic staff alleges that Credit Suisse CS violated key terms of a plea agreement with the Justice Department. The report alleges Credit Suisse transferred nearly $100 million of funds from a family of dual U.S.-Latin American citizens to other banks in Switzerland without notifying the DOJ, enabling what “appears to be potentially criminal tax evasion” for almost a decade, the report says. Several additional Swiss banks may be currently holding large secret offshore accounts for U.S. persons, the report says. Credit Suisse has agreed to be purchased by UBS UBS with the…

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  • Sergio Ermotti returns as UBS CEO after Credit Suisse deal

    Sergio Ermotti returns as UBS CEO after Credit Suisse deal

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    UBS Group AG said Wednesday that it has decided to appoint Sergio P. Ermotti as its new chief executive replacing Ralph Hamers, and said the change is a result of its planned acquisition of rival Credit Suisse Group AG.

    The appointment of Mr. Ermotti–who was UBS’s UBS CH:UBSG CEO in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and stepped down in 2020 after nine years in the role–will become effective on April 5, the bank said.

    Mr….

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  • 3 tech issues UBS faces with Credit Suisse purchase | Bank Automation News

    3 tech issues UBS faces with Credit Suisse purchase | Bank Automation News

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    UBS’ acquisition of the failing Credit Suisse reframes the European banking market, but also presents significant technological challenges for UBS.  The $1.5 trillion, Zurich-based UBS moves from “too big to fail” to “way too big to fail” with the $3.2 billion purchase of Credit Suisse, with global ramifications should the acquisition go sour, Jost Hoppermann, […]

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    Brian Stone

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