United Airlines Holdings Inc. on Tuesday said it was rethinking its longer-term plans for Boeing’s biggest 737 Max jet, the Max 10, after the government’s grounding of dozens of Max 9s this month raised questions over whether the aircraft maker could still deliver planes on time.
United UAL, +5.31%
Chief Executive Scott Kirby said during the airline’s earnings call on Tuesday that it wasn’t canceling its orders for the Max 10. But he said the airline was taking the jet “out of our internal plans.”
“We’ll be working on what that means exactly with Boeing,” he said. “But Boeing is not going to be able to meet their contractual deliveries on at least many of those airplanes.”
United, during the call, said that it had 277 Max 10 jets on order for the rest of the decade. Of the 107 jets set for delivery this year, 31 were Max 9s. But Chief Financial Officer Michael Leskinen said was “unrealistic” to expect those jets to arrive as currently planned.
“Look,” he said. “The reality is that with the with the Max grounding, this is the kind of straw that broke the camel’s back with believing that the Max 10 will deliver on the schedule we had hoped for.”
He added: “It’s a great aircraft. But we can’t count on it. So we’re working on alternate plans.”
The decision on the Max 10 marks the latest blow to Boeing’s BA, -1.60%
reputation, as safety concerns pile up after a panel tore off a 737 Max 9 jet flown by Alaska Airlines earlier this month.
The Federal Aviation Administration grounded 171 Boeing 737 Max 9s for inspections, leading to scores of flight cancellations for both United and Alaska ALK, +2.87%.
United, when it reported fourth-quarter results on Monday, said it expected to lose money in the first quarter, following the impact of those cancellations. Still, shares were up on Tuesday on United’s full-year profit forecast.
The FAA over the weekend also recommended that operators of Boeing’s 737-900ER planes “visually inspect mid-exit door plugs to ensure the door is properly secured.” Regulators around the world grounded the 737 Max in 2019 after two fatal crashes.
Meanwhile, Ben Minicucci, the chief executive of Alaska Airlines, in an interview with NBC News published Tuesday, said inspectors found loose bolts on “many” of its Boeing 737 Max 9s after the mid-flight blowout.
“I’m more than frustrated and disappointed,” he said in that interview. “I am angry. This happened to Alaska Airlines. It happened to our guests and happened to our people. And my demand on Boeing is, what are they going to do to improve their quality programs in-house?”
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of transportation services. It operates through the following geographical segments: Domestic, Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded on December 30, 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.
Alaska Airlines, United Airlines and Turkish Airlines have all grounded their Boeing 737 Max 9 airplanes after part of one such jet tore away during an Alaska Airlines flight on Friday. But despite the potential safety risks for travelers and further damage to Boeing’s BA, -8.03%
reputation, some Wall Street analysts, for now, have downplayed the financial impact for the jet maker.
In part, they pointed to the company’s status as one of two major players in aircraft production — the other being Airbus EADSY, +3.52%.
They also cited a tighter supply of available aircraft and limited near-term impact, at least while investigators try to figure out the cause of the incident.
Those airlines and others took the action over the weekend after a panel on a jet blew out about 10 minutes into Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 at an altitude of about 16,000 feet.
No one died in the incident. But the Federal Aviation Administration ordered the temporary grounding of certain Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft. The order covered 171 planes.
Still, some Wall Street analysts on Monday said to buy the stock anyway. They said the latest difficulties with the aircraft — which follow the 2019 grounding of Max jets by many nations following two fatal crashes — were unlikely to have a big near-term financial impact.
BofA analysts, in a research note dated Sunday, said that “at this point in time, due to the duopoly nature of the industry, we do not see this impacting orders for any of the 737 MAX variants. However, if the hits to the program do keep coming … at some point, the flying public may lose confidence in the 737 MAX which could ultimately impact sales.”
The analysts said it wasn’t clear yet whether the blowout on Friday was due to an assembly mistake at Boeing, an improper installation from fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems or oversight issues elsewhere. But they noted that the aircraft was relatively new, having been delivered on Oct. 31. And they said that “some scrutiny must be saved for regulators as well, as the FAA is ultimately responsible for certificating these aircraft before delivery.”
Spirit AeroSystems’ stock SPR, -11.13%
was down 11%.
Analysts at William Blair also said they didn’t expect a big hit to Boeing’s financials.
“While the Alaska Airlines door plug accident was terrifying, we do not believe that it will have a major financial impact, unless another incident occurs after the aircraft returns to service,” they said in a note on Monday.
Analysts there estimated that over the past two months, the Max 9 made up less than one-fifth of Boeing’s total deliveries. They said those deliveries would only be “modestly impacted over the first quarter as it could take some time to determine the cause.”
Of the 23 analyst ratings on Boeing’s stock tracked by FactSet, 18 are buy ratings or the equivalent.
However, Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker said the 737 Max 9 issues will likely disrupt first-quarter results for United Airlines UAL, +2.78%
and Alaska Air ALK, -0.21%.
“This will hopefully be a situation resolved in days/weeks rather than months, but it will also serve as a reminder of how fragile airline capacity can be despite the overhang of capacity,” Shanker said in a Monday research note.
United Airlines’ stock rose 2.4% on Monday, while Alaska Air’s dipped by 0.3%.
Along with United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and Turkish Airlines, Copa Airlines and Aeromexico grounded about 40 Boeing 737 Max 9 planes, according to reports.
According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the affected fleet accounts for 16.1% of Alaska Airlines flights and 6.6% of United flights, although United has more 737 Max 9 aircraft than Alaska.
Other airlines with the plane in their fleet include Jet Airways of India with one plane, Jin Air of Korea with three, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines KLMR,
with five and Korean Air Lines 003490, -1.52%
with nine, according to Planespotter.net.
European regulators also grounded the 737 Max 9 for inspection.
Some major airlines do not have any 737 Max 9s in their fleets, including American Airlines AAL, +7.21%,
Southwest Airlines LUV, -0.10%
and Air Canada AC, +3.42%,
according to reports.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter earnings late Tuesday that were better than Wall Street expected, but the airline’s stock fell as the company called for lower profits later in the year.
United UAL, +1.49%
earned $1.1 billion, or $3.42 a share, in the quarter, compared with $942 million, or $2.86 a share, in the same quarter a year earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, the airline earned $3.65 a share.
Sales rose to $14.5 billion from $12.9 billion a year ago.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected United to report adjusted earnings of $3.38 a share on sales of $14.4 billion.
United said it expects fourth-quarter earnings of about $1.80 a share if flights to Tel Aviv are suspended through October, and of around $1.50 a share if the Tel Aviv flights are suspended through the end of the year. The Israel-Hamas war has raged for a little over a week.
Wall Street forecast fourth-quarter earnings of $2.09 a share. United’s stock dropped more than 4% in the extended session Tuesday after ending the regular trading day up 1.5%.
The airline also called for pricier jet fuel for the fourth quarter, seeing a gallon going for $3.28 on average by that time. That compares with a third-quarter fuel average price of $2.95 a gallon.
Fourth-quarter operating revenues are seen 10% higher year-on-year, and 9% higher if the Tel Aviv flights are still halted through the end of 2023. The FactSet analysts are calling for fourth-quarter revenue of $13.6 billion, from $12.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.
United earlier this month said it placed orders for an additional 110 new jets from Boeing Co. BA, +0.36%
and Airbus SE AIR, +3.55%
as it expected air-travel demand to continue unabated.
The airline in 2021 launched its United Next plan, promising more savings by using newer, more fuel-efficient jets. These newer planes often offer premium seating, allowing the airline to sell more profitable, rarely discounted first-class and business seats.
United’s stock has gained 7% so far this year, compared with an advance of about 14% for the S&P 500 index SPX.
United is slated to hold a conference call to discuss the third-quarter results and the update through the end of the year on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern.
Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.
First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500
have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.
Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.
Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc. GOOGL
and Meta Platforms Inc. META,
which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.
On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.
Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds
rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.
The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills
yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.
Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”
Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:
Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg
Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.
This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.
We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.
Screening for lower valuations and high ratings
A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.
Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:
Sector or index
Current P/E to 5-year average
Current P/E to 10-year average
Current P/E to 15-year average
Forward P/E
5-year average P/E
10-year average P/E
15-year average P/E
Utilities
82%
86%
95%
14.99
18.30
17.40
15.82
Real Estate
76%
80%
81%
15.19
19.86
18.89
18.72
Consumer Staples
93%
96%
105%
18.61
19.92
19.30
17.64
Healthcare
103%
104%
115%
16.99
16.46
16.34
14.72
Financials
88%
92%
97%
12.90
14.65
14.08
13.26
Materials
100%
103%
111%
16.91
16.98
16.42
15.27
Industrials
88%
96%
105%
17.38
19.84
18.16
16.56
Energy
106%
63%
73%
11.78
11.17
18.80
16.23
Consumer Discretionary
79%
95%
109%
24.09
30.41
25.39
22.10
Information Technology
109%
130%
146%
24.20
22.17
18.55
16.54
Communication Services
86%
86%
94%
16.41
19.09
19.00
17.43
S&P 500
94%
101%
112%
17.94
19.01
17.76
16.04
DJ Industrial Average
93%
98%
107%
16.25
17.49
16.54
15.17
Nasdaq Composite Index
92%
102%
102%
24.62
26.71
24.18
24.18
Nasdaq-100 Index
97%
110%
126%
24.40
25.23
22.14
19.43
There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.
If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.
A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.
We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:
Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.
“Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.
Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.
There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:
Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. were rocked Wednesday, after the air carrier raised its profit outlook, but not by enough to match Wall Street expectations.
The company said before the open that it expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 1 cent to 5 cents, compared with a per-share loss of $2.32 a year ago. While that’s better than previous guidance for an “approximately breakeven” quarter, the average EPS estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet was 5 cents.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. late Tuesday reported fourth-quarter earnings that were well above Wall Street expectations, saying it managed well the severe winter-weather disruptions in late December, and offered an optimistic view of the current quarter and guidance for full-year 2023.
United UAL, -0.87%
managed through “one of the worst weather events in my career to get deliver for so many of our customers and get them home for the holidays,” United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said.
United’s Kirby pinned the different outcome for his airline on “critical” investments in personnel and technology. “That’s why we’ve got a big head start, and we’re now poised to accelerate in 2023,” the CEO said.
United earned $843 million, or $2.55 a share, in the fourth quarter, swinging from a loss of $646 million, or $1.99 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted for one-time items, United earned $2.46 a share.
Revenue rose to $12.40 billion from $8.2 billion a year ago.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected United to report adjusted earnings of $2.11 a share on revenue of $12.23 billion.
The stock rallied more than 3% in extended trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.9%. The airline has scheduled a conference call with analysts Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern
United guided for first-quarter adjusted EPS between 50 cents and $1, well above current FactSet consensus of 31 cents a share, and said it expects revenue to grow around 50% in the quarter.
For the full year, the airline called for adjusted EPS between $10 and $12, also significantly higher than FactSet consensus of $6.84 a share.
United stock has gained 9% in the past 12 months. That contrasts with losses of around 14% for the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.20%
and of nearly 10% for the U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS, +0.40%.
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company with United Airlines, Inc. as its principal, wholly-owned subsidiary. It transports people and cargo throughout North America and to destinations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. The firm, through United and its regional carriers, operates across six continents, with hubs at Newark Liberty International Airport (Newark), Chicago O’Hare International Airport (Chicago O’Hare), Denver International Airport (Denver), George Bush Intercontinental Airport (Houston Bush), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), A.B. Won Pat International Airport (Guam), San Francisco International Airport (SFO), and Washington Dulles International Airport (Washington Dulles). The company was founded on December 30, 1968, and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.
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Airlines stocks fell across the board in premarket trade Wednesday, after the Federal Aviation Administration said a computer outage had led to all U.S. fights being grounded. The agency said on its website that its “Notice to Air Missions” system has been activated “to address the equipment outage issues for the U.S. NOTAM system.” A NOTAM is a notice for workers engaged in flight operations. There was no indication of when service might be restored. Southwest Airlines Co. LUV, +1.68%
led the decliners, falling 2.5%. American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, +3.97%
was down 1.6%, United Airlines Holdings Inc. UAL, +5.54%
was down 0.8%, JetBlue Airways Corp. JBLU, +4.92%
was down 0.7% and Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL, +3.59%
was down 0.7%. The U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS, +2.40%
was down 0.7% and has fallen 14% in the last 12 months, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.70%
has fallen 17%.
Delta Air Lines’ stock rose 4.7% before market open on Wednesday after the company raised its earnings guidance.
The carrier DAL, -4.00%
said it is executing on its three-year recovery plan, with year-one results ahead of expectations. Delta also highlighted robust demand for air travel as the industry recovers from the widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The carrier raised its 2022 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.07 to $3.12. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for earnings of $2.88 a share. For 2023, Delta Air Lines Inc. forecast a near doubling of adjusted earnings to $5 to $6 a share.
Delta also forecast 2023 revenue growth at 15% to 20% compared with 2022 and said it is on track to meet its 2024 earnings target of more than $7 a share.“Demand for air travel remains robust as we exit the year and Delta’s momentum is building,” said Delta CEO Ed Bastian, in a statement.
Delta said it expects to deliver strong topline growth in 2023 and significant operating leverage, boosted by a full restoration of its network and continued improvements in premium and loyalty revenue.
Non-fuel unit costs are expected to decline 5% to 7%, driving Delta’s margin expansion and adjusted earnings growth, the company said. Delta expects to generate more than $2 billion of free cash flow, which it said will enable further debt reduction.
“2022 is proving to be a pivotal year as we rebuild the world’s best-performing airline,” said Bastian, in the statement.
The company’s robust guidance boosted other airline stocks before market open, with United Airlines Holdings Inc. UAL, -6.94%
rising 1.4%, American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, -5.21%
gaining 1.3%, and JetBlue Airways Corp. JBLU, -7.67%
rising 1.3%.
Delta shares have fallen 14.6% this year, compared with the S&P 500 index’s SPX, +0.73%
decline of 15.7% and the U.S Global Jets ETF’s JETS, -2.85%
slump of 14.3%.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recorded their worst day in almost a month on Monday,after a hotter-than-expected U.S. services-sector reading fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be even more aggressive in its inflation battle.
How stocks traded
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.26%
finished down 482.78 points, or 1.4%, at 33,947.10.
The S&P 500 SPX, -1.79%
ended 72.86 points lower, or 1.8%, at 3,998.84.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -11.01% closed down 221.56 points, or 1.9%, at 11,239.94.
Those were the largest declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since Nov. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Strong wage growth numbers released Friday were followed up on Monday by a robust reading for the U.S. services sector — both of which helped to stoke fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, along with the central bank’s modest balance-sheet unwind, haven’t had much of an impact on the tight labor market.
“If nothing else, the ISM services report is being interpreted as very strong, and thus the economy is overheating and that means more Fed tightening,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York. “Consumer resilience has proven to be more intense than I would have expected. In the two most interest-rate sensitive sectors — housing and autos — tightening has channeled into markets in meaningful ways.”
But there has been so much pent-up demand, that higher interest rates haven’t been cooling overall spending as much as the Fed would like because companies are still having to fill a backlog of orders, he said via phone.
In other economic data, the final November S&P Global U.S. services PMI edged up to 46.2 from 46.1, but remained in contractionary territory.
November jobs data released on Friday showed average hourly wages grew over the past year by more than 5% as of November, beating economists’ expectations and stoking concerns that robust wage growth would continue to fuel inflation, market strategists said.
Worries about a more-aggressive Fed also helped to drive Treasury yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year note rose 9.6 basis points to 3.6% on Monday. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and yields had fallen sharply over the past month, driven by shifting expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes.
Monday’s ISM services figure “surprised to the upside, suggesting that the economy is still running above its long-run sustainable path and that the Fed is going to have to slow the economy more than expected in 2023,” Bill Adams, the Dallas-based chief economist for Comerica Inc. CMA, said via phone.
Meanwhile, oil futures ended lower on Monday, a day after Sunday’s decision by OPEC and its allies to keep production quotas unchanged.
Falling equity prices helped drive the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, +8.87%,
also known as the VIX, back above 20 on Monday. The volatility gauge had fallen sharply in recent weeks as stocks rallied, potentially signaling complacency that could ultimately hurt stocks, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients.
GameStop Corp.‘s Class A shares GME, -7.12%
ended down by 7.1% ahead of the company’s third-quarter results, which are set to be released after the market closes on Wednesday. Analysts are looking for a narrowing loss from the videogame retailer.
Shares of U.S. airlines and aircraft makers traded higher on Monday, bucking the broader trend in stocks. Boeing Co. BA, +1.22%
and United Airlines Holdings Inc. UAL, +2.60%
were among the best performers in the S&P 500, finishing up by 1.2% and 2.6%, respectively.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock rallied after hours Tuesday after the airline said it expected the travel rebound to weather a shakier economy in the months ahead and reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.
“Looking forward through the end of the year, the airline expects the strong COVID recovery trends to continue to overcome the recessionary pressures in the macroeconomic environment,” company executives said in a statement.
That backdrop — along with tighter flight networks and changes in how people work — helped justify the airline’s more upbeat forecast for the fourth quarter. United Airlines UAL, +3.19%
said it expected adjusted fourth-quarter operating margin of around 10%, the first time the figure would end above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
United also forecast adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share of between $2.00 and $2.25, well above FactSet forecasts for 98 cents per share. The carrier also said it expected a 24% to 25% gain in total fourth-quarter unit revenue — a much-watched industry metric that measures sales as spread out across an airline’s flight capacity — when compared to the same period in 2019.
Adjusted fourth-quarter unit costs were seen up between 11% and 12%, and roughly 15% for the full year, when compared to the respective periods in 2019.
For the third quarter, United reported net income of $942 million, or $2.86 per share, compared with $473 million, or $1.44 per share, in the prior-year quarter.
On an adjusted basis, the company earned $2.81 per share, compared with a $1.02 per-share loss in the quarter a year ago and $4.07 in 2019. Revenue was $12.877 billion, compared with $7.75 billion a year ago and $11.38 billion in 2019.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings of $2.28 per share, on revenue of $12.743 billion.
Shares jumped 7% after the market’s close. American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, +3.79%,
which reports earnings on Thursday, rose 3.6% after hours.
United, in its earnings release, also called out three demand trends that it said were “more than fully offsetting any economic headwinds.” It said that “Air travel is still in the COVID recovery phase, hybrid work gives customers the freedom and flexibility to travel for leisure more often, and external supply challenges will limit industry supply for years to come.”
The carrier said it expected total flight capacity, a measure of available seats on flights, to be down between 9% and 10% for the fourth quarter and down around 13% for the full year, when compared to 2019 levels.
United reported as analysts look for cracks in the travel industry’s rebound and holiday demand, after eager travelers this summer ran into flight delays and cancellations, insufficient staffing and severe weather. Airfares and fuel costs are more expensive — a function of strong demand and thinner supplies. Aircraft supply is tight, some executives have said. Airlines have also tried to bulk up flight crews, particularly pilots, after encouraging buyouts in 2020, as the pandemic left the industry without passengers and burning through cash.
Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL, +3.34%
last week said it expected fourth-quarter sales to grow from pre-pandemic levels, as demand for travel, after two years of pandemic-related restraint, holds up against rising prices.
“The travel recovery continues as consumer spend shifts to experiences and demand improves in corporate and international,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in its earnings release.
Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth, in a research note last week, said she expected United to see similar momentum, helped by corporate travel and international demand.
She said American and JetBlue Airways Corp. JBLU, +1.90%
should benefit to a lesser degree, “due to large corp and transatlantic exposure at the former and large coastal-city exposure at the latter.” JetBlue reports earnings on Oct. 25.
Delta’s international-unit revenue growth outpaced that in its domestic business for the first time since the pandemic started. Leisure travel to Europe helped propel results, as did strong demand for Delta’s premium-class seats. Bastian said he expected Delta’s flight network to be fully restored by summer next year.
“Demand has not come close to being quenched by a hectic summer travel season,” he said on Delta’s earnings call. “At the same time, industry supply is constrained by aircraft availability, regional pilot shortages and hiring and training needs.”
Delta rose 3% after the bell on Tuesday.
United Airlines stock is down 15% so far this year. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index SPX, +1.14%
is down 22% over that time.
Share of airline companies enjoyed a broad rally Monday, boosted by data showing the most people flew on Sunday since before the pandemic, and by the rally in the broader stock market. The U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS, +2.02%
climbed 1.5% in morning trading, while the S&P 500 SPX, +2.65%
jumped 2.6%. Among the Jets ETF’s more-active U.S. based carriers, shares of American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, +0.69%
rose 0.5%, Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL, +0.16%
tacked on 0.2% and United Airlines Holdings Inc. UAL, +1.78%
rose 0.7%. Elsewhere, shares of aerospace giant Boeing Co.’s stock BA, +2.21%
rose 0.3%. Data from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) showed that 2.495 million travelers went through TSA checkpoints on Sunday, which is just above the previous 2022 high of 2.490 million on July 1, and the most since Feb. 11, 2020, which was exactly one month before the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. In comparison, the fewest daily travelers post-pandemic was 87,534 on April 12, 2022. And in 2019, there were 116 days of more travelers than Sunday, while the average for that year was 2.306 million.
