ReportWire

Tag: U.S. election

  • Trump, California and the multi-front war over the next election

    [ad_1]

    In recent weeks, Marin County Registrar Natalie Adona has been largely focused on the many mundane tasks of local elections administrators in the months before a midterm: finalizing voting locations, ordering supplies, facilitating candidate filings.

    But in the wake of unprecedented efforts by the Trump administration to intervene in state-run elections, Adona said she has also been preparing her staff for far less ordinary scenarios — such as federal officials showing up and demanding ballots, as they recently did in Georgia, or immigration agents staging around polling stations on election day, as some in President Trump’s orbit have suggested.

    “Part of my job is making sure that the plans are developed and then tested and then socialized with the staff so if those situations were to ever come up, we would not be figuring it out right then and there. We would know what to do,” Adona said. “Doing those sort of exercises and that level of planning in a way is kind of grounding, and makes things feel less chaotic.”

    Natalie Adona faced harassment from election deniers and COVID anti-maskers when she served as the registrar of voters in Nevada County. She now serves Marin County and is preparing her staff for potential scenarios this upcoming election, including what to do if immigration agents are present.

    (Jess Lynn Goss / For The Times)

    Across California, local elections administrators say they have been running similar exercises to prepare for once unthinkable threats — not from local rabble-rousers, remote cyberattackers or foreign adversaries, but their own federal government.

    State officials, too, are writing new contingency plans for unprecedented intrusions by Trump and other administration officials, who in recent days have repeated baseless 2020 election conspiracies, raided and taken ballots from a local election center in Fulton County, Ga., pushed both litigation and legislation that would radically alter local voting rules, and called for Republicans to seize control of elections nationwide.

    California’s local and state officials — many of whom are Democrats — are walking a fine line, telling their constituents that elections remain fair and safe, but also that Trump’s talk of federal intervention must be taken seriously.

    Their concerns are vastly different than the concerns voiced by Trump and other Republicans, who for years have alleged without evidence that U.S. elections are compromised by widespread fraud involving noncitizen voters, including in California.

    But they have nonetheless added to a long-simmering sense of fear and doubt among voters — who this year have the potential to radically alter the nation’s political trajectory by flipping control of Congress to Democrats.

    An election worker moves ballots to be sorted.

    An election worker moves ballots to be sorted at the Orange County Registrar of Voters in Santa Ana on Nov. 5, 2024.

    (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

    Trump has said he will accept Republican losses only if the elections are “honest.” A White House spokesperson said Trump is pushing for stricter rules for voting and voter registration because he “cares deeply about the safety and security of our elections.”

    Rick Hasen, an election law expert and director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA Law, said some of what Trump says about elections “is nonsensical and some is bluster,” but recent actions — especially the election center raid in Georgia — have brought home the reality of his threats.

    “Some worry that this is a test run for trying to seize ballot boxes in 2026 and prevent a fair count of the votes, and given Trump’s track record, I don’t think that is something we can dismiss out of hand,” Hasen said. “States need to be making contingency plans to make sure that those kinds of things don’t happen.”

    The White House dismissed such concerns, pointing to isolated incidents of noncitizens being charged with illegally voting, and to examples of duplicate registrations, voters remaining on rolls after death and people stealing ballots to vote multiple times.

    “These so-called experts are ignoring the plentiful examples of noncitizens charged with voter fraud and of ineligible voters on voter rolls,” said Abigail Jackson, the White House spokesperson.

    Experts said fraudulent votes are rare, most registration and roll issues do not translate into fraudulent votes being cast, and there is no evidence such issues swing elections.

    A swirl of activity

    Early in his term, Trump issued an executive order calling for voters nationwide to be required to show proof of U.S. citizenship, and for states to be required to disregard mail ballots received after election day. California and other states sued, and courts have so far blocked the order.

    This past week, Trump said outright that Republicans should “take over” elections nationwide.

    The Justice Department has sued California Secretary of State Shirley Weber and her counterparts in other states for refusing to hand over state voter rolls — the lawsuit against Weber was tossed — and raided and seized ballots from the election office of Fulton County, long a target of right-wing conspiracy theories over Trump’s 2020 election loss.

    President Trump walks behind former chairperson of the Republican National Committee Michael Whatley.

    President Trump walks behind former chairperson of the Republican National Committee Michael Whatley as he prepares to speak during a political rally in Rocky Mount, N.C., on Dec. 19.

    (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images)

    Longtime Trump advisor and ally Stephen K. Bannon suggested U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents will be dispatched to polling locations in November, reprising old fears about voter intimidation. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said she couldn’t rule that out, despite it being illegal.

    Democrats have raised concerns about the U.S. Postal Service mishandling mail ballots in the upcoming elections, following rule changes for how such mail is processed. Republicans have continued pushing the SAVE America Act, which would create new proof of citizenship requirements for voters. The U.S. Supreme Court is considering multiple voting rights cases, including one out of Louisiana that challenges Voting Rights Act protections for Black representation.

    Charles H. Stewart, director of the MIT Election Data + Science Lab, said the series of events has created an “environment where chaos is being threatened,” and where “people who are concerned about the state of democracy are alarmed and very concerned,” and rightfully so.

    But he said there are also “a number of guardrails” in place — what he called “the kind of mundane mechanics that are involved in running elections” — that will help prevent harm.

    California prepares

    California leaders have been vociferous in their defense of state elections, and said they’re prepared to fight any attempted takeover.

    “The President regularly spews outright lies when it comes to elections in this country, particularly ones he and his party lose,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement. “We will continue to correct those lies, rebuild much-needed trust in our democratic institutions and civic duties, and defend the U.S. Constitution’s grant to the states authority over elections.”

    California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta and Secretary of State Shirley Weber.

    California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta and Secretary of State Shirley Weber take questions after announcing a lawsuit to protect voter rights in 2024.

    (Damian Dovarganes / Associated Press)

    California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said in an interview that his office “would go into court and we would get a restraining order within hours” if the Trump administration tries to intervene in California elections, “because the U.S. Constitution says that states predominantly determine the time, place and manner of elections, not the president.”

    Weber told The Times that the state has “a cadre of attorneys” standing by to defend its election system, but also “absolutely amazing” county elections officials who “take their job very seriously” and serve as the first line of defense against any disruptions, from the Trump administration or otherwise.

    Dean Logan, Los Angeles County’s chief elections official, said his office has been doing “contingency planning and tabletop exercises” for traditional disruptions, such as wildfires and earthquakes, and novel ones, such as federal immigration agents massing near voting locations and last-minute policy changes by the U.S. Postal Service or the courts.

    “Those are the things that keep us up at night,” he said.

    Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder Dean Logan said the county no longer has ballots from the 2020 election.

    Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder Dean Logan said the county no longer has ballots from the 2020 election.

    (Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)

    Logan said he is not currently concerned about the FBI raiding L.A. County elections offices because, while Fulton County still had its 2020 ballots on hand due to ongoing litigation, that is not the case for L.A. County, which is “beyond the retention period” for holding, and no longer has, its 2020 ballots.

    However, Logan said he does consider what happened in Georgia a warning that the Trump administration “will utilize the federal government to go in and be disruptive in an elections operation.”

    “What we don’t know is, would they do that during the conduct of an election, before an election is certified?” Logan said.

    Kristin Connelly, chief elections officer for Contra Costa County, said she’s been working hard to make sure voters have confidence in the election process, including by giving speeches to concerned voters, expanding the county’s certified election observer program, and, in the lead-up to the 2024 election, running a grant-funded awareness campaign around election security.

    Connelly — who joined local elections officials nationwide in challenging Trump’s executive order on elections in court — said she also has been running tabletop exercises and coordinating with local law enforcement, all with the goal of ensuring her constituents can vote.

    “How the federal government is behaving is different from how it used to behave, but at the end of the day, what we have to do is run a mistake-free, perfect election, and to open our offices and operation to everybody — especially the people who ask hard questions,” she said.

    Lessons from the past

    Several officials in California said that as they prepare, they have been buoyed by lessons from the past.

    Before being hired by the deep-blue county of Marin in May, Adona was the elected voting chief in rural Nevada County in the Sierra foothills.

    In 2022, Adona affirmed that Trump’s 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden was legitimate and enforced a pandemic mask mandate in her office. That enraged a coalition of anti-mask, anti-vaccine, pro-Trump protesters, who pushed their way into the locked election office.

    Protesters confronted Adona and her staffers, with one worker getting pushed down. They stationed themselves in the hallway, leaving Adona’s staff too terrified to leave their office to use the hallway bathroom, as local, state and federal authorities declined to step in.

    “At this point, and for months afterwards, I felt isolated and depressed. I had panic attacks every few days. I felt that no one had our back. I focused all my attention on my staff’s safety, because they were clearly nervous about the unknown,” Adona said during subsequent testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

    In part because she knows what can go wrong, Adona said her focus now is on preparing her new staff for whatever may come, while following the news out of Georgia and trying to maintain a cool head.

    “I would rather have a plan and not use it than need a plan and not have one,” she said.

    Clint Curtis, the clerk and registrar of voters in Shasta County — which ditched its voting machines in 2023 amid unfounded fraud allegations by Trump — said his biggest task ahead of the midterms is to increase both ballot security and transparency.

    Since being appointed to lead the county office last spring, the conservative Republican from Florida has added more cameras and more space for election observers — which, during the recent special election on Proposition 50, California’s redistricting measure, included observers from Bonta’s and Weber’s offices.

    He has also reduced the number of ballot drop boxes in the vast county from more than a dozen to four. Curtis told The Times he did not trust the security of ballots in the hands of “these little old ladies running all over the county” to pick them up, and noted there are dozens of other county locations where they can be dropped off. He said he invited Justice Department officials to observe voting on Proposition 50, though they didn’t show, and welcomes them again for the midterms.

    “If they can make voting safer for everybody, I’m perfectly fine with that,” he said. “It always makes me nervous when people don’t want to cooperate. Whatcha hiding? It should be: ‘Come on in.’”

    Election workers inspect ballots after extracting them from envelopes.

    Election workers inspect ballots after extracting them from envelopes on election night at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center on Nov. 5, 2024, in the City of Industry.

    (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

    Weber, 77 and the daughter of an Arkansas sharecropper whose family fled Southern racism and threats of violence to reach California, said that while many people in the U.S. are confronting intense fear and doubt about the election for the first time, and understandably so, that is simply not the case for her or many other Black people.

    “African Americans have always been under attack for voting, and not allowed to vote, and had new rules created for them about literacy and poll taxes and all those other kinds of things, and many folks lost their lives just trying to register to vote,” Weber said.

    Weber said she still recalls her mother, who had never voted in Arkansas, setting up a polling location in their home in South L.A. each election when Weber was young, and today draws courage from those memories.

    “I tell folks there’s no alternative to it. You have to fight for this right to vote. And you have to be aware of the fact that all these strategies that people are trying to use [to suppress voting] are not new strategies. They’re old strategies,” Weber said. “And we just have to be smarter and fight harder.”

    [ad_2]

    Kevin Rector, Hailey Branson-Potts, Ana Ceballos

    Source link

  • Trump says federal government should ‘take over’ state elections

    [ad_1]

    President Trump said Monday that the federal government should “nationalize” elections, repeating — without evidence — his long-running claim that U.S. elections are beset by widespread fraud.

    Speaking on a podcast hosted by former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino, Trump said Republicans should “take over the voting in at least 15 places,” alleging that voting irregularities in what he called “crooked states” are hurting the GOP.

    “The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting,” Trump said.

    The proposal would clash with the Constitution’s long-standing framework that grants states primary authority over election administration, and underscored Trump’s continued efforts to upend voting rules ahead of this year’s midterm elections.

    Trump, for example, lamented that Republicans have not been “tougher” on the issue, again asserting without evidence that he lost the 2020 election because undocumented immigrants voted illegally for Democrats.

    “If we don’t get them out, Republicans will never win another election,” Trump said. “These people were brought to our country to vote and they vote illegally, and it is amazing that the Republicans are not tougher on it.”

    In his remarks, the president suggested that “some interesting things” may come out of Georgia in the near future. Trump did not divulge more details, but was probably teasing what may come after the FBI served a search warrant at the election headquarters of Fulton County, Ga.

    Days after FBI agents descended on the election center, the New York Times reported that Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard was with agents at the scene when she called Trump on her cellphone. Trump thanked them for their work, according to the report, an unusual interaction between the president and investigators tied to a politically sensitive inquiry.

    In the days leading up to the Georgia search, Trump suggested in a speech during the World Economic Summit in Davos, Switzerland, that criminal charges were imminent in connection to what he called a “rigged” 2020 election.

    Georgia has been central to Trump’s 2020 claims. That’s where Trump called Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on January 2021, asking him to “find” 11,780 votes to overturn the state’s results. Raffensperger refused, affirming that a series of reviews confirmed that Democrat Joe Biden had won the state.

    Since returning to office a year ago, Trump has continued to aggressively pushed changes to election rules.

    He signed an executive order in March to require proof of U.S. citizenship on election forms, but months later a federal judge barred the Trump administration from doing so, saying the order violated the separation of powers.

    “Because our Constitution assigns responsibility for election regulation to the States and to Congress, this Court holds that the President lacks the authority to direct such changes,” Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly of the Federal District Court for the District of Columbia wrote in October.

    In Congress, several Republican lawmakers have backed legislation to require people provide proof of citizenship before they register to vote.

    Some conservatives are using the elections bill as bargaining chip amid negotiations over a spending package that would end a partial government shutdown that began early Saturday.

    “ONLY AMERICAN CITIZENS SHOULD BE VOTING IN AMERICAN ELECTIONS. This is common sense not rocket science,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) wrote on X on Monday as negotiations were continuing.

    [ad_2]

    Ana Ceballos

    Source link

  • Deloitte Canada predicts more economic growth, benchmark rate below 3% in 2025 – MoneySense

    Deloitte Canada predicts more economic growth, benchmark rate below 3% in 2025 – MoneySense

    [ad_1]

    In the company’s fall economic outlook released Thursday, it forecasts the central bank’s interest rate will fall to 3.75% by the end of this year and a neutral rate of 2.75% by mid next year. 

    Meanwhile, it expects the economy to grow moderately as softer labour market conditions persist, especially as many home owners have yet to face higher rates when they refinance their loans.  

    “We do think that we’re going to be in for a decent year next year,” said Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada. 

    It appears Canada will successfully skirt a recession despite the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy, said Desjardins. 

    “It’s hard to argue that the economy is just skating through this period of higher interest rates. But having said that, the overall numbers themselves continue to show the economy is expanding,” she said. 

    “Yes, the labour market has softened, but I don’t think we’re in any kind of crisis in the labour market at this time.”

    Higher interest rates impacting economic growth, labour market

    The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark rate three times so far this year as inflation has eased, and signalled more cuts are coming. 

    Inflation in Canada hit the central bank’s 2% target in August, falling from 2.5 in July to reach its lowest level since February 2021. 

    [ad_2]

    The Canadian Press

    Source link

  • Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris in U.S. election: ‘I’ve made my choice’ – National | Globalnews.ca

    Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris in U.S. election: ‘I’ve made my choice’ – National | Globalnews.ca

    [ad_1]

    Taylor Swift says she’ll be voting for U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris in November’s presidential election.

    The pop superstar took to Instagram with her announcement moments after Harris wrapped up her debate with former president Donald Trump on Tuesday.

    “I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election,” she wrote.

    She added Harris “fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them.”

    “I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos,” she continued.

    “I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make.”

    Story continues below advertisement

    She said she was speaking up after Trump posted a fake image last month created by artificial intelligence that falsely portrayed her endorsing Trump.

    For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen.

    Get breaking National news

    For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen.

    “It brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter,” she wrote. “The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.”


    Click to play video: 'Taylor Swift deepfake images: Why people are concerned over pornographic AI photos'


    Taylor Swift deepfake images: Why people are concerned over pornographic AI photos


    She signed off her post as “Taylor Swift, Childless Cat Lady” — a dig at a much-maligned comment made by Trump’s running mate JD Vance slamming Democratic politicians who do not have biological children.

    Swift has only recently begun making her political views clear after shying away from politics for much of her career.

    She endorsed U.S. President Joe Biden in the 2020 election and urged her fans to support Democrats in the 2018 midterms.

    Story continues below advertisement


    &copy 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

    [ad_2]

    Sean Boynton

    Source link

  • Taylor Swift sends voter registration numbers surging with a single post – National | Globalnews.ca

    Taylor Swift sends voter registration numbers surging with a single post – National | Globalnews.ca

    [ad_1]

    On National Voter Registration Day in the U.S., Taylor Swift urged her millions of fans to Speak Now and let their democratic voices be heard. Her callout led to “record-breaking traffic” to Vote.org,  a non-profit voting registration website, which said it saw the most sign-ups in years thanks to the pop star’s help.

    Swift shared a message on her Instagram story Tuesday morning asking her fans if they had registered to vote yet for the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections.

    “I’ve been so lucky to see so many of you guys at my US shows recently. I’ve heard you raise your voices, and I know how powerful they are. Make sure you’re ready to use them in our elections this year!”


    Click to play video: 'Taylor Swift announces ‘1989 (Taylor’s Version)’ at final U.S. concert to fans’ elation'


    Taylor Swift announces ‘1989 (Taylor’s Version)’ at final U.S. concert to fans’ elation


    Within the hour that Swift made her post, traffic on the Vote.org website shot up 1226 per cent, according to Vote.org CEO Andrea Hailey.

    Story continues below advertisement

    “Our site was averaging 13,000 users every 30 minutes — a number that Taylor Swift would be proud of,” Hailey wrote in a press release shared with Global News.

    Thirteen, as Swifties would know, is the pop star’s lucky number.

    In total, 35,252 people registered to vote through the site on Tuesday, an improvement of 22.5 per cent compared with last year’s campaign. Vote.org states that this year’s National Voter Registration Day was the most successful since 2020, a year that saw now-President Joe Biden face off against then-incumbent Donald Trump in a highly contentious election.

    This year’s voter registration numbers were helped in part by surging interest among young people. Compared with last year’s drive, there was a 115 per cent increase in 18-year-olds registering to vote.

    “Time and time again young people are showing up and demonstrating they care about their rights and access to the ballot box,” Hailey said.

    In a tweet, Hailey added: “Wanna know something even more wild? We see an 849% increase here compared to 2021. 849%! This generation’s eagerness to participate is a game changer. They are the future, and their energy will shape the outcomes of upcoming elections.”

    Story continues below advertisement

    Vote.org says it is “seizing on this momentum” to announce plans to register eight million voters before Americans go to the ballot box in 2024.

    “We’ve already launched our registration program with our youth efforts across campuses, influencer engagement, radio, digital, social media and direct voter contacts. The 2024 election is already here, and now, it’s time to turn this enthusiasm into votes,” Hailey said.

    Until recently, Swift was famously reticent to discuss political issues in public. That all changed in 2018 when she came out in support of Tennessee Senate candidate Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, while slamming his Republican opponent Marsha Blackburn on her track record with LGBTQ2+ and women’s rights.

    “In the past I’ve been reluctant to publicly voice my political opinions, but due to several events in my life and in the world in the past two years, I feel very differently about that now,” Swift wrote at the time. Blackburn went on to win the Senate election.

    In 2020, Swift endorsed Biden and Kamala Harris’ campaign, saying at the time that she believed America “has a chance to start the healing process it so desperately needs,” under their leadership.

    &copy 2023 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

    [ad_2]

    Kathryn Mannie

    Source link

  • Ukraine frets about US midterms

    Ukraine frets about US midterms

    [ad_1]

    Press play to listen to this article

    There is mounting anxiety about what Tuesday’s American midterm elections may mean for Ukraine and U.S. support for the country, amid fears that a Republican surge could weaken American backing for Kyiv.

    Ukrainian officials and lawmakers are scrutinizing the opinion polls and parsing the comments of their counterparts.

    “We hope that for our sake that we don’t become a victim to the partisan debate that’s unfolding right now in the U.S.,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a former Ukrainian deputy prime minister and now opposition lawmaker, told POLITICO. “That’s the fear, because we are very much seriously dependent on not only American support, but also on the U.S. leadership in terms of keeping up the common effort of other nations.”  

    House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the potential next speaker if the Republicans prevail, said last month that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine if the House comes back under Republican control. The Biden administration has tried to assuage concerns about the government’s commitment to supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, but populist Republican sentiment in Congress is urging less support for Kyiv and more attention on U.S. domestic problems.  

    “I’m worried about the Trump wing of the GOP,” said Mia Willard, a Ukrainian-American living and working in Kyiv. “I have recently read about Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s promise that ‘not another penny will go to Ukraine’ if Republicans retake control of Congress.”

    According to the latest poll data, the Republicans are favored to take over the House and possibly the Senate in Tuesday’s voting.

    “I do hope that regardless of the election results,” said Willard, “there will be a continued bipartisan consensus on supporting Ukraine amid Russia’s genocide of the Ukrainian people, which I cannot call anything but a genocide after firsthand witnessing Russia’s war crimes in the now de-occupied territories,” said Willard, who is a researcher at the International Centre for Policy Studies in the Ukrainian capital.

    Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin is confident that U.S. military and financial support for his country will continue after the midterms. “I don’t see a critical number of people among the Republicans calling for cuts in aid,” he told POLITICO. At the same time, Klimkin acknowledged that the procedure for congressional consideration of Ukraine aid may become more complex.

    Klimkin said he believes that the U.S. stance toward Ukraine is “critical” for Washington beyond the Ukrainian conflict — “not only with respect to Russia, but also to how the U.S. will be perceived by China.”

    Voters line up outside the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections center in Cleveland, Ohio | Dustin Franz/AFP via Getty Images

    For Ukraine, Klimkin said the “real risk” is the debate taking place in Washington on both sides of the aisle about the fact that “the United States is giving much more than all of Europe” to Kyiv’s war effort.

    According to the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, the U.S. has brought its total commitments in military, financial and humanitarian aid to over €52 billion, while EU countries and institutions have collectively reached just over €29 billion. 

    “The U.S. is now committing nearly twice as much as all EU countries and institutions combined. This is a meager showing for the bigger European countries, especially since many of their pledges are arriving in Ukraine with long delays,” said Christoph Trebesch, head of the team compiling the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker.

    Europe’s stance

    If the Republicans prevail in Tuesday’s vote, the anxiety is also that without U.S. leadership, Ukraine would slip down the policy agenda of Europe, too, depriving Ukraine of the backing the country needs for “victory over the Russian monster,” Klympush-Tsintsadze said.

    If the worst happened and U.S. support weakens following the midterms, Klympush-Tsintsadze said she has some hopes that Europe would still stand firm. She has detected in Europe “much more sobriety in the assessment of what Russia is and what it can do, and I hope there would be enough voices there in Europe, too, to ensure there’s no weakening of support,” she said.

    Others are less sanguine about how stout and reliable the Europeans would be without Washington goading and galvanizing. Several officials and lawmakers pointed to the Balkan wars of the 1990s and how the Clinton administration stood back, arguing the Europeans should take the lead only to have to intervene diplomatically and militarily later.

    “We in Ukraine have been watching closely the developments in the USA and what configuration the Congress will have after the midterm elections,” said Iuliia Osmolovska, chair of the Transatlantic Dialogue Center and a senior fellow at GLOBSEC, a global think-tank headquartered in Bratislava. 

    A local resident rides a bicycle on a street in Izyum, eastern Ukraine on September 14, 2022 | Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images)

    “This might impact the existing determination of the U.S. political establishment to continue supporting Ukraine, foremost militarily. Especially given voices from some Republicans that call for freezing the support to Ukraine,” she said.

    But Osmolovska remains hopeful, noting that “Ukraine has been enjoying bipartisan support in the war with Russia since the very first days of the invasion in February this year.” She also believes President Joe Biden would have wiggle room to act more independently when it comes to military assistance to Ukraine without seeking approval from Congress thanks to legislation already on the books. 

    But she doesn’t exclude “the risk of some exhaustion” from allies, arguing that Ukraine needs to redouble diplomacy efforts to prevent that from happening. What needs to be stressed, she said, is that “our Western partners only benefit from enabling Ukraine to defeat Russia as soon as possible” — as a protracted conflict is in no one’s interest.

    “There’s a feeling in the air that we’re winning in the war, although it is far from over,” said Glib Dovgych, a software engineer in Kyiv.

    “If the flow of money and equipment goes down, it won’t mean our defeat, but it will mean a much longer war with much higher human losses. And since many other allies are looking at the U.S. in their decisions to provide support to us, if the U.S. decreases the scale of their help, other countries like Germany, France and Italy would probably follow suit,” Dovgych said.

    Yaroslav Azhnyuk, president and co-founder of Petcube, a technology company that develops smart devices for pets, says “it’s obvious that opinions on how to end Russia’s war on Ukraine are being used for internal political competition within the U.S.”

    He worries about the influence on American political opinion also of U.S.-based entrepreneurs and investors, mentioning David Sacks, Elon Musk and Chamath Palihapitiya, among others. “They have publicly shared concerning views, saying that Ukraine should cede Crimea to Russia, or that the U.S. should stop supporting Ukraine to avoid a global nuclear war.”

    Azhnyuk added: “I get it, nukes are scary. But what happens in the next 5-10 years after Ukraine cedes any piece of its territory or the conflict is frozen. Such a scenario would signal to the whole world that nuclear terrorism works.”

    Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that regardless of the results of the U.S. midterms, Kyiv is “confident” that bipartisan support for Ukraine will remain in both chambers of the Congress. Both the Republicans and Democrats have voiced their solidarity with Ukraine, and this stance would remain “a reflection of the will of the American people,” he said.

    The Ukrainian side counts on America’s leadership in important issues of defense assistance, in particular in expanding the capacity of the Ukrainian air defense system, financial support, strengthening sanctions against Moscow, and recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, Podolyak told POLITICO.

    And this isn’t just about Ukraine, said Klympush-Tsintsadze, the former deputy premier.

    “Too many things in the world depend on this war,” she said. “It’s not only about restoring our territorial integrity. It’s not only about our freedom and our chance for the future, our survival as a nation and our survival as a country — it will have drastic consequences for the geopolitics of the world,” Klympush-Tsintsadze said.

    [ad_2]

    Jamie Dettmer and Sergei Kuznetsov

    Source link