Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, speaks during an interview on CNBC on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, February 27, 2023.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said she did not participate in Arm‘s blockbuster initial public offering last week because she finds the British chip designer was overvalued relative to its competitive position.
The initial buzz has since fizzled, with the stock suffering successive daily declines to end the Tuesday trade session at $55.17.
Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Wednesday, Wood said the recent frenzy around AI-exposed companies was justified and that “innovation is undervalued given the enormous opportunities that we see ahead, catalyzed very importantly by artificial intelligence.”
“As far as Arm, I think there might be a little bit too much emphasis on AI when it comes to Arm and maybe not enough focus on the competitive dynamics out there,” she added.
Arm CEO Rene Haas and executives cheer, as Softbank’s Arm, chip design firm, holds an initial public offering (IPO) at Nasdaq Market site in New York, U.S., September 14, 2023.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
“So we did not participate in that IPO, and we also compare it to the stocks in our portfolios. Arm came out, we think, from a valuation point of view on the high side, and we see within our portfolios much lower priced names with much more exposure to AI.”
After taking a beating during the recent cycle of aggressive interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the ARK ETF resurged this year, as investors flocked to stocks with AI exposure. Wood said that the anticipation of interest rates peaking would further this trend.
“The appetite for innovation is stirring here, and I think one of the reasons is because many investors and analysts are starting to look over the interest rate hike moves we’ve seen, record breaking in the last year or so, and to the other side,” she explained.
With inflation coming down across major economies and with central banks expected to begin unwinding their aggressive monetary policy tightening over the next year, Wood suggested the coming period “should be a very good environment for innovation and global megatrend strategies.”
ARK Invest on Wednesday acquired British thematic ETF issuer Rize ETF for £5.25 million ($6.5 million), marking the company’s first venture into the European passive investment market.
Wood said that Europe has not had access to actually invest in the company’s U.S.-based ETFs until now, despite accounting for around 25% of demand for the company’s research since ARK’s inception in 2014.
“The cost of technology, especially with artificial intelligence now, is collapsing, and therefore it’s going to be much easier to build and scale tech companies anywhere in the world. This is no longer just the purview of Silicon Valley,” Wood said. “We are very open-minded about technologies flourishing throughout the world, including Europe.”
Car-sharing service Turo filed its IPO prospectus in January 2022. A month earlier, Reddit said it submitted a draft registration for a public offering. Instacart’s confidential paperwork was filed in May of last year.
None of them have hit the market yet.
Despite a bloated pipeline of companies waiting to go public and a rebound in tech stocks that pushed the Nasdaq up 30% in the first half of 2023, the IPO drought continues. There hasn’t been a notable venture-backed tech initial public offering in the U.S. since December 2021, when software vendor HashiCorp debuted on the Nasdaq.
Across all industries, only 10 companies raised $100 million or more in U.S. initial share sales in the first six months of the year, according to FactSet. During the same stretch in 2021, there were 517 such transactions, highlighted by billion-dollar-plus IPOs from companies including dating site Bumble, online lender Affirm, and software developers UiPath and SentinelOne.
As the second half of 2023 gets underway, investors and bankers aren’t expecting much champagne popping for the rest of the year.
Many once high-flying companies are still hanging onto their old valuations, failing to reconcile with a new reality after a brutal 2022. Additionally, muted economic growth has led businesses and consumers to cut costs and delay software purchases, which is making it particularly difficult for companies to comfortably forecast the next couple of quarters. Wall Street likes predictability.
So if you’re waiting on a splashy debut from design software maker Canva, ticket site StubHub or data management company Databricks, be patient.
“There’s a disconnect between valuations in 2021 and valuations today, and that’s a hard pill to swallow,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO consultancy Class V Group in Portola Valley, California. “There will be incremental activity after a period of absolute radio silence but it isn’t like companies are racing to get out the door.”
The public markets tell an uneven story. This year’s rally has brought the Nasdaq to within 15% of its record from late 2021, while an index of cloud stocks is still off by roughly 50%.
Some signs of optimism popped up this month as Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava went public on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock more than doubled on its first day of trading, indicating high demand from retail investors. Buyer noted that institutions were also enthused about the deal.
Last Friday, Israeli beauty and tech company Oddity, which runs the Il Makiage and Spoiled Child brands, filed to go public on the Nasdaq.
That all comes after a big month for secondary offerings. According to data from Goldman Sachs, May was the busiest month for public stock sales since November 2021, driven by a jump in follow-on deals.
While investors are craving new names, they’re much more discerning when it comes to technology than they were at the tail end of the decade-long bull market.
Mega-cap stocks Apple and Nvidia have seen outsized gains this year and are back to trading near all-time highs, boosting the Nasdaq because of their hefty weightings in the index. But the advances are not evenly spread across the industry.
In particular, investors who bet on less mature businesses are still hurting. The companies that held the seven-biggest tech IPOs in the U.S. in 2021 have lost at least 40% of their value since their debut. Coinbase, which went public through a direct listing, is down more than 80%.
That year’s IPO class featured high-growth businesses with even higher cash burn, an equation that worked fine until recession concerns and rising interest rates pushed investors into assets better positioned to withstand an economic slowdown and increased capital costs.
Employees of Coinbase Global Inc, the biggest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, watch as their listing is displayed on the Nasdaq MarketSite jumbotron at Times Square in New York, April 14, 2021.
Shannon Stapleton | Reuters
Bankers and investors tell CNBC that optimism is picking up, but ongoing economic concerns and the valuation overhang from the pre-2022 era set the stage for a quiet second half for tech IPOs.
One added challenge is that fixed income alternatives are back. Following a lengthy stretch of near-zero interest rates, the Federal Reserve this year lifted its target rate to between 5% and 5.25%. Parking money in short-term Treasurys, certificates of deposit and high-yield savings offerings can now generate annual returns of 5% or more.
“Interest rates are not only about the cost of financing, but also getting investors to trade out of 5% risk-free returns,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management. “You can make 15%-20% in the stock market but lose 15%-20%.”
Dollarhide, whose firm has invested in milestone tech offerings like Google and Facebook, says IPOs are important. They offer more opportunities for money managers, and they generate profits for the tech ecosystem that help fund the next generation of innovative companies.
But he understands why there’s skepticism about the window reopening. Perhaps the biggest recent bust in tech investing followed the boom in special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), which brought scores of less mature companies to the public market through reverse mergers.
“It seems the foul odor of failure from the 2021 SPAC craze has spoiled the appetite from investors seeking IPOs,” Dollarhide said. “I think that’s done some harm to the traditional IPO market.”
Private markets have felt the impact. Venture funding slowed dramatically last year from record levels and has stayed relatively suppressed, outside of the red-hot area of artificial intelligence. Companies have been forced to cut staff and close offices in order to preserve cash and right-size their business
Pre-IPO companies like Stripe, Canva and Klarna have taken huge hits to their valuations, either through internal measures or markdowns from outside investors.
Few have been hit as hard as Instacart, which has repeatedly slashed its valuation, from a peak of $39 billion to as low as $10 billion in late 2022. Last year, the company confidentially registered for an IPO, but still hasn’t filed publicly and doesn’t have immediate plans to do so.
Similarly, Reddit said in December 2021 that it had confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to go public. That was before the online ad market took a dive, with Facebook suffering through three straight quarters of declining revenue and Google’s ad sales also slipping.
Now Reddit is in the midst of a business model shift, moving its focus beyond ads and toward generating revenue from third-party developers for the use of its data. But that change sparked a protest this month across a wide swath of Reddit’s most popular communities, leaving the company with plenty to sort through before it can sell itself to the public.
A Reddit spokesperson declined to comment.
Turo was so close to an IPO that it went beyond a confidential filing and published its full S-1 registration statement in January 2022. When stocks sold off, the offering was indefinitely delayed. To avoid withdrawing its filing, the company has to continue updating its quarterly results.
Like Instacart, Turo operates in the sharing economy, a dark spot for investors last year. Airbnb, Uber and DoorDash have all bounced back in 2023, but they’ve also instituted significant job cuts. Turo has gone in the opposite direction, more than doubling its full-time head count to 868 at the end of March from 429 at the time of its original IPO filing in 2021, according to its latest filing. The company reportedly laid off about 30% of its staff in 2020, during the Covid pandemic.
Turo and Instacart could still go public by year-end if market conditions continue to improve, according to sources familiar with the companies who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
Byron Deeter, a cloud software investor at Bessemer Venture Partners, doesn’t expect any notable activity this year, and says the next crop of companies to debut will most likely wait until after showing their first-quarter results in 2024.
“The companies that were on file or were considering going out a little over a year ago, they’ve pulled, stopped updating, and overwhelmingly have no plans to refile this calendar year,” said Deeter, whose investments include Twilio and HashiCorp. “We’re 10 months from the real activity picking up,” Deeter said, adding that uncertainty around next year’s presidential election could lead to further delays.
In the absence of IPOs, startups have to consider the fate of their employees, many of whom have a large amount of their net worth tied up in their company’s equity, and have been waiting years for a chance to sell some of it.
Stripe addressed the issue in March, announcing that investors would buy $6.5 billion worth of employee shares. The move lowered the payment company’s valuation to about $50 billion from a high of $95 billion. Deeter said many late-stage companies are looking at similar transactions, which typically involve allowing employees to sell around 20% of their vested stock.
He said his inbox fills up daily with brokers trying to “schlep little blocks of shares” from employees at late-stage startups.
“The Stripe problem is real and the general liquidity problem is real,” Deeter said. “Employees are agitating for some path to liquidity. With the public market still pretty closed, they’re asking for alternatives.”
G Squared is one of the venture firms active in buying up employee equity. Larry Aschebrook, the firm’s founder, said about 60% of G Squared’s capital goes to secondary purchases, helping companies provide some level of liquidity to staffers.
Aschebrook said in an interview that transactions started to pick up in the second quarter of last year and continued to increase to the point where “now it’s overwhelming.” Companies and their employees have gotten more realistic about the market reset, so significant chunks of equity can now be purchased for 50% to 70% below valuations from 2021 financing rounds, he said.
Because of nondisclosure agreements, Aschebrook said he couldn’t name any private company shares he’s purchased of late, but he said his firm previously bought pre-IPO secondary stock in Pinterest, Coursera, Spotify and Airbnb.
“Right now there’s a significant need for that release of pressure,” Aschebrook said. “We’re assisting companies with elongating their private lifecycle and solving problems presented by staying private longer.”
Following a record-smashing tech IPO year in 2021 that featured the debuts of electric car maker Rivian, restaurant software company Toast, cloud software vendors GitLab and HashiCorp and stock-trading app Robinhood, 2022 has been a complete dud.
The only notable tech offering in the U.S. this year was Intel’s spinoff of Mobileye, a 23-year-old company that makes technology for self-driving cars and was publicly traded until its acquisition in 2017. Mobileye raised just under $1 billion, and no other U.S. tech IPO pulled in even $100 million, according to FactSet.
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In 2021, by contrast, there were at least 10 tech IPOs in the U.S. that raised $1 billion or more, and that doesn’t account for the direct listings of Roblox, Coinbase and Squarespace, which were so well-capitalized they didn’t need to bring in outside cash.
The narrative completely flipped when the calendar turned, with investors bailing on risk and the promise of future growth, in favor of profitable businesses with balance sheets deemed strong enough to weather an economic downturn and sustained higher interest rates. Pre-IPO companies altered their plans after seeing their public market peers plunge by 50%, 60%, and in some cases, more than 90% from last year’s highs.
In total, IPO deal proceeds plummeted 94% in 2022 — from $155.8 billion to $8.6 billion — according to Ernst & Young’s IPO report published in mid-December. As of the report’s publication date, the fourth quarter was on pace to be the weakest of the year.
With the Nasdaq Composite headed for its steepest annual slump since 2008 and its first back-to-back years underperforming the S&P 500 since 2006-2007, tech investors are looking for signs of a bottom.
But David Trainer, CEO of stock research firm New Constructs, says investors first need to get a grip on reality and get back to valuing emerging tech companies based on fundamentals and not far-out promises.
As tech IPOs were flying in 2020 and 2021, Trainer was waving the warning flag, putting out detailed reports on software, e-commerce and tech-adjacent companies that were taking their sky-high private market valuations to the public markets. Trainer’s calls appeared comically bearish when the market was soaring, but many of his picks look prescient today, with Robinhood, Rivian and Sweetgreen each down at least 85% from their highs last year.
“Until we see a persistent return to intelligent capital allocation as the primary driver of investment decisions, I think the IPO market will struggle,” Trainer said in an email. “Once investors focus on fundamentals again, I think the markets can get back to doing what they are supposed to do: support intelligent allocation of capital.”
Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” last week that she’s “optimistic about 2023” because the “backlog has never been stronger,” and that activity will pick up once volatility in the market starts to dissipate.
For companies in the pipeline, the problem isn’t as simple as overcoming a bear market and volatility. They also have to acknowledge that the valuations they achieved from private investors don’t reflect the change in public market sentiment.
Companies that were funded over the past few years did so at the tail end of an extended bull run, during which interest rates were at historic lows and tech was driving major changes in the economy. Facebook’smega IPO in 2012 and the millionaires minted by the likes of Uber, Airbnb, Twilio and Snowflake recycled money back into the tech ecosystem.
Venture capital firms, meanwhile, raised ever larger funds, competing with a new crop of hedge funds and private equity firms that were pumping so much money into tech that many companies were opting to stay private for longer than they otherwise would.
Money was plentiful. Financial discipline was not.
In 2021, VC firms raised $131 billion, topping $100 billion for the first time and marking a second straight year over $80 billion, according to the National Venture Capital Association. The average post-money valuation for VC deals across all stages rose to $360 million in 2021 from about $200 million the prior year, the NVCA said.
Those valuations are in the rearview mirror, and any companies who raised during that period will have to face up to reality before they go public.
Some high-valued late-stage startups have already taken their lumps, though they may not be dramatic enough.
Stripe cut its internal valuation by 28% in July, from $95 billion to $74 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Checkout.com slashed its valuation this month to $11 billion from $40 billion, according to the Financial Times. Instacart has taken a hit three times, reducing its valuation from $39 billion to $24 billion in May, then to $15 billion in July, and finally to $13 billion in October, according to The Information.
Klarna, a provider of buy now, pay later technology, suffered perhaps the steepest drop in value among big-name startups. The Stockholm-based company raised financing at a $6.7 billion valuation this year, an 85% discount to its prior valuation of $46 billion.
“There was a hangover from all the binge drinking in 2021,” said Don Butler, managing director at Thomvest Ventures.
Butler doesn’t expect the IPO market to get appreciably better in 2023. Ongoing rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are looking more likely to tip the economy into recession, and there are no signs yet that investors are excited to take on risk.
“What I’m seeing is that companies are looking at weakening b-to-b demand and consumer demand,” Butler said. “That’s going to make for a difficult ’23 as well.”
Butler also thinks that Silicon Valley has to adapt to a shift away from the growth-first mindset before the IPO market picks up again. That not only means getting more efficient with capital, showing a near-term path to profitability, and reining in hiring expectations, but also requires making structural changes to the way organizations run.
For example, startups have poured money into human resources in recent years to handle the influx in people and the aggressive recruiting across the industry. There’s far less need for those jobs during a hiring freeze, and in a market that’s seen 150,000 job cuts in 2022, according to tracking website Layoffs.fyi.
Butler said he expects this “cultural reset” to take a couple more quarters and said, “that makes me remain pessimistic on the IPO market.”
One high-priced private company that has maintained its valuation is Databricks, whose software helps customers store and clean up data so employees can analyze and use it.
Databricks raised $1.6 billion at a $38 billion valuation in August of 2021, near the market’s peak. As of mid-2021, the company was on pace to generate $1 billion in annual revenue, growing 75% year over year. It was on everybody’s list for top IPO candidates coming into the year.
Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi isn’t talking about an IPO now, but at least he’s not expressing concerns about his company’s capital position. In fact, he says being private today plays to his advantage.
“If you’re public, the only thing that matters is cash flow right now and what are you doing every day to increase your cash flow,” Ghodsi told CNBC. “I think it’s short-sighted, but I understand that’s what markets demand right now. We’re not public, so we don’t have to live by that.”
Ghodsi said Databricks has “a lot of cash,” and even in a “sky is falling” scenario like the dot-com crash of 2000, the company “would be fully financed in a very healthy way without having to raise any money.”
Snowflake shares in 2022
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Databricks has avoided layoffs and Ghodsi said the company plans to continue to hire to take advantage of readily available talent.
“We’re in a unique position, because we’re extremely well-capitalized and we’re private,” Ghodsi said. “We’re going to take an asymmetric strategy with respect to investments.”
That approach may make Databricks an attractive IPO candidate at some point in the future, but the valuation question remains a lingering concern.
Snowflake, the closest public market comparison to Databricks, has lost almost two-thirds of its value since peaking in November 2021. Snowflake’s IPO in 2020 was the largest ever in the U.S. for a software company, raising almost $3.9 billion.
Snowflake’s growth has remained robust. Revenue in the latest quarter soared 67%, beating estimates. Adjusted profit was also better than expectations, and the company said it generated $65 million in free cash flow in the quarter.
Still, the stock is down almost 20% in the fourth quarter.
“The sentiment in the market is a little stressed out,” Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman told CNBC’s Jim Cramer after the earnings report on Nov. 30. “People react very strongly. That’s understood, but we live in the real world, and we just go one day at a time, one quarter at a time.”
