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Tag: trusts

  • How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    How 10-year Treasurys could produce 20% returns, according to UBS

    Carnage in the bond market in September could tee up an opportunity for investors to earn big returns on U.S. government debt in a year.

    Owners of 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    notes at recent yields of around 4.5% could reap up to 20% in total returns in a year if the U.S. economy stumbles into a recession, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

    The key would be for U.S. debt to rally significantly as investors scramble for safety in the roughly $25 trillion treasury market.

    “U.S. yields remain well above long-term equilibrium levels, providing scope for them to fall as the macroeconomic outlook becomes more supportive for bonds,” a team led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a Friday client note.

    Their base-case call is for the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3.5% in 12 months, with it easing back to 4% in an upside scenario for growth, and for the economy’s benchmark rate to tumble as low as 2.75% in a downside scenario of a U.S. recession.

    “That would translate into total returns over the period of 14% in our base case, 10% in our upside economic scenario, and 20% in our downside scenario.”

    See: The market ‘may be overpaying you’ on a 10-year Treasury, says Lloyd Blankfein

    A rally in Treasury debt could help boost funds that track the Treasury market and the broader U.S. bond sector. The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT
    was down 10.9% on the year through Friday, while the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
    AGG
    was 3% lower, according to FactSet.

    A tug of war has been developing in the Treasury market, with fear gripping investors this week as bond yields spike in the wake of signals last week from the Federal Reserve that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer than many on Wall Street anticipated.

    “Bond vigilantes” unhappy about the U.S. deficit have been demanding higher yields, while households and hedge funds have been piling into Treasury securities since the Fed began raising rates in 2022.

    Much hinges on how painful things get if rates stay high, which would ratchet up borrowing costs for households, companies and the U.S. government as the Fed works to get falling inflation down to its 2% target.

    Hedge-fund billionaire Bill Ackman this week said he thinks Treasury yields are going higher in a hurry, as part of his bet that the 30-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    has more room to climb.

    The 10-year Treasury edged lower to 4.572% on Friday, after adding almost 50 basis points in September, which helped the stock market reclaim some lost ground in a dismal month, while the 30-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.709%, according to FactSet.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    posted a 3.5% decline in September, its biggest monthly loss since February, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    fell 4.8% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    shed 5.8% for the month.

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  • Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

    Blue Apron notches triple-digit percentage gain while Nike rallies after earnings beat and boosts Foot Locker stock

    Here are the day’s biggest movers:

    Stock gainers:

    Blue Apron Holding Inc.’s stock
    APRN,
    +133.52%

    rocketed by 134% after food-delivery start-up Wonder said it would acquire the company for $13 a share or about $103 million, just a fraction of its $2 billion in 2017 when the company went public.

    Shares of Nike
    NKE,
    +5.96%

    rallied 7% as the apparel maker, which is also part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    reported better-than-expected earnings, news that also lifted shares of European rivals including Adidas
    ADS,
    +6.22%
    .

    Foot Locker
    FL,
    +2.71%
    ,
    which sells athletic apparel, saw its stock rise by 3%.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.‘s stock
    WBA,
    +6.39%

    rose 6.2% as a top gainer among the Nasdaq 100
    NDX
    as stocks reacted with gains to the latest inflation data.

    Stock decliners:

    Bionomics 
    BNOX,
    -11.87%
    ,
    whose shares jumped 242% on Thursday after reporting positive results from a mid-stage trial of a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, fell 8% in regular trade.

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  • Potential Bids for U.S. Steel Keep Getting Weirder

    Potential Bids for U.S. Steel Keep Getting Weirder

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  • Most long-term investors can ignore whatever the Federal Reserve does today

    Most long-term investors can ignore whatever the Federal Reserve does today

    The Federal Reserve’s moves — or lack thereof — will affect everyone. And almost no one.

    While market pundits have been trying to get their hands on the any indication of what the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy announcement will say on Wednesday, individual investors have stuck their hands in their own pockets and left them there.

    The…

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  • Block’s stock has been a laggard lately. Will management shakeup provide a needed jolt?

    Block’s stock has been a laggard lately. Will management shakeup provide a needed jolt?

    Block Inc.’s stock has been a sizable laggard this year, and now it’s losing the leader of a critical business — albeit one that hasn’t necessarily lived up to investor expectations lately.

    Alyssa Henry, the head of Block’s
    SQ,
    -2.99%

    Square merchant business, is stepping down after a long tenure with the company, and Jack Dorsey will assume her role while continuing to lead Block on the whole, the company announced in a Monday filing.

    The announcement comes as Block shares have declined 18% so far this year, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    has risen 16%. Other payment-technology stocks, including Shift4 Payments Inc.,
    FOUR,
    -0.54%

    Toast Inc.
    TOST,
    +1.34%

    and even PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    -1.98%

    have logged better year-to-date performances.

    Block’s stock closed at its lowest level since April 7, 2020 on Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It was down about 2% in after-hours trading.

    The stock is also down 82% from its all-time closing high achieved Aug. 5, 2021.

    See also: PayPal’s ‘fresh start’ isn’t enough to help its stock, analyst cautions

    The performance of the Square merchant business, which includes payment processing and other tools for sellers, has been a sore point for investors recently. Wolfe Research analyst Darrin Peller notes that Block’s second-quarter U.S. gross payment volume (GPV) was up 10% from a year earlier, a four-point spread above Visa Inc.’s
    V,
    +1.49%

    domestic growth. Historically, the spread has been in double digits, he said.

    Additionally, while the 12% overall growth in Square’s GPV “continues to imply that Square is a market-share gainer, we note that this growth spread relative to the industry has trended lower and also suggests slightly softer growth trends versus competitors like Clover,” which is part of Fiserv Inc.
    FI,
    +0.12%
    ,
    whose shares are up 20% on the year.

    “While some of Square’s success over the years should be attributed to Alyssa’s execution, the company’s more recent performance remains a concern for investors (and we suspect for management, internally),” Peller wrote.

    He pointed to “mixed” feedback from investors thus far.

    “Bulls argue that this change is positive, indicating that management is taking change seriously,” Peller said. “Further, it’s worth noting that Jack has been more receptive to cost management and other adjustments. Meanwhile, bears are citing that Alyssa was the ‘face’ of Seller and was more receptive to changes in Square’s business model compared to Jack (particularly around outsourced distribution).”

    Block, for its part, said in its filing that Henry “provided significant contributions” to the company during a tenure that spanned more than nine years.

    UBS downgraded Block shares earlier this month, in part due to concerns about the Square business. Analyst Rayna Kumar said she was concerned about a potential slowdown in gross-profit growth owing to a moderation in consumer spending.

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  • UAW strike: Ford, GM, Stellantis record profits haven’t been shared fairly with workers, Biden says

    UAW strike: Ford, GM, Stellantis record profits haven’t been shared fairly with workers, Biden says

    President Joe Biden on Friday offered his support to the United Auto Workers, as he addressed their strike aimed at the Big Three auto makers.

    Auto companies have seen record profits because of the “extraordinary skill and sacrifices” of UAW workers, Biden said in a brief speech at the White House.

    “Those record profits have not been shared fairly, in my view, with those workers,” the president added.

    “The companies have made some significant offers, but I believe they should go further to ensure record corporate profits mean record contracts for the UAW,” he also said.

    Biden gave his remarks after about 12,700 workers went on strike early Friday as their union and the Big Three automakers failed to reach an agreement before a contract expired.

    It’s a targeted strike at a Ford Motor 
    F,
    -0.08%

    plant in Michigan, a General Motors 
    GM,
    +0.86%

    plant in Missouri and a Stellantis NV 
    STLA,
    +2.18%

    plant in Ohio.

    The UAW so far has not endorsed Biden’s re-election bid, even as the AFL-CIO and other big unions have lined up behind the Democratic incumbent.

    The presidential race in 2024 could be a rematch of 2020’s contest between Biden and former President Donald Trump, who has won over some union households that historically have backed Democrats like Biden rather than Republicans.

    See: Here are the Republicans running for president

    Biden got more support than Trump from union households in the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020, but Trump got more support from such households in Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Edison Research exit polls.

    Trump has seized on concerns that the car industry’s shift toward electric vehicles
    CARZ,
    which the Biden administration has promoted, could hurt American workers. “The all Electric Car is a disaster for both the United Auto Workers and the American Consumer,” the former president said Friday in a post on his Truth Social platform.

    On Friday, Biden said he hopes the UAW and car companies “can return to the negotiation table to forge a win-win agreement,” and he said he’s sending two administration officials to Detroit — Julie Su, the acting secretary of labor, and Gene Sperling, a senior adviser.

    GM posted a 2022 net profit of $11.04 billion, up from $10.38 billion in 2021, while Ford recorded a 2022 net profit of $7.62 billion, up from $6.43 billion in the prior year. For Stellantis, the parent company for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep, last year’s net profit was $17.83 billion, up from $15.12 billion.

    UAW President Shawn Fain said in a statement after Biden’s speech that union members “agree with Joe Biden when he says ‘record profits mean record contracts.’” 

    Fain also said: “Working people are not afraid. You know who’s afraid? The corporate media is afraid. The White House is afraid. The companies are afraid.”

    Now read: Tesla may be the winner of the Big Three labor woes

    And see: Will the UAW strike push up car prices?

    Plus: UAW strike to have limited impact on Big Three, Fitch says

    Claudia Assis contributed.

     

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  • The economy is doing better than anyone thinks, but these troubles are in the pipeline, says Bill Ackman

    The economy is doing better than anyone thinks, but these troubles are in the pipeline, says Bill Ackman

    Stock investors are showing some hesitancy for Tuesday, with big signals on the economy coming this week via consumer prices and retail sales. Ahead of that, Apple is expected to tempt consumers with yet another new iPhone on Tuesday.

    How much should investors be worrying right now? Our call of the day from Pershing Square Capital Management manager Bill Ackman says that in the near term, we can relax a little, but it isn’t all roses.

    Read: Hedge funds have bailed on the U.S. consumer in a big way, Goldman Sachs data finds

    He told the Julia La Roche Show in an interview where he felt like he had a “crystal ball of what was going to happen,” starting in January 2020 with the COVID-19 outbreak, and that carried on through interest rates and the economy. Indeed, the manager reportedly made nearly $4 billion on a couple of pandemic-related bets.

    “I would say the crystal ball has clouded a bit in the last period. I think these are unusual economic times and perhaps we always say that, but I don’t think this is a pattern that has been repeated…or it hasn’t been for more than 100 years,” he said.

    But he remains near-term upbeat. “For two years, people have been saying that recession’s around the corner and you know we’ve had a very different view, and continue to have this view that I think people are coming around to, that the economy is actually still quite strong,” he said.

    And while those on lower-income rungs have burned through a lot of COVID savings, he thinks the economy has yet to really see impact from the big fiscal stimulus seen in recent years.

    Looking down the road though, Ackman has got a stack of concerns over the economy. He sees about a third of federal debt due to get repriced meaning that over a relatively short period of time, “interest expense will become a much bigger part of the deficit that is not going to be a contributor to the economy.”

    And while higher interest rates do help savers, ultimately that will be a big drag on the economy, he said, adding that rising inflation, mortgage rates, car payments and credit card rates, are all set to slow the economy.

    “We’re still in the midst of a war and there’s political uncertainty you know with an upcoming election,” he said. That partly explains Pershing Square’s hedge via a short position on the 30-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    that he laid out in a tweet in early August.

    For roughly a year, long-term Treasury yields have been trading below short-dated ones, which is known as an inverted yield curve, a phenomenon that’s often seen as a precursor to recession.

    “I don’t see inflation getting back to 2% so quickly, if at all, and if in fact we’re in a world of persistent 3% inflation, you know it doesn’t make sense to have a 4.3%, 4.25% Treasury yield,” he said.

    Other risks? Ackman remains worried about regional banks following the spring crisis, as many have big fixed-rate portfolios of assets that have gotten less and less valuable as rates rise. “I would say the commercial real estate picture has not gotten better, if anything, you know, you’re going to start seeing real defaults, particularly with office assets,” he said.

    “Regional banks have the most exposure to construction loans so they are going to be a lot of construction loans that won’t be able to repaid. There will be a lot of restructurings, so either the investors groups are gonna have to put in a lot more equity or the banks are going to start taking some losses,” he said.

    Ackman says investors also face a presidential campaign that could add some stress. The hedge-fund manager said he’s surprised there have not been “more and better alternative candidates” for the 2024 campaign over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

    He’d like to see JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon toss his hat in the ring and believes Biden is “beatable,” by a strong candidate.

    Ackman himself said it’s “possible,” he himself could run someday, but he’s more focused on having a better investment track record over Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett — and needs some 30 years to match the Oracle of Omaha.

    Read: Here’s an easy way to make a more concentrated play on the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks

    The markets

    Stock futures
    ES00,
    -0.36%

    NQ00,
    -0.45%

    are tilting south, led by tech, with Treasury yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y

    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    steady to a touch lower and the dollar
    DXY
    recovering some ground.

    Read: Watch this ‘canary in the coal mine’ for signs of trouble in markets, Neuberger Berman CIO says

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    Oracle shares
    ORCL,
    +0.31%

    are down 10% in premarket trading after disappointing guidance from the cloud database group.

    Apple’s
    AAPL,
    +0.66%

    big event kicks off at 1 p.m. Eastern, with the launch of the pricier iPhone 15 expected to be on the agenda.

    Hot ticket. Arm Holdings’ IPO is already 10 times oversubscribed and bankers will stop taking orders by Tuesday afternoon, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.

    Tech’s wild week: How Apple, Google, AI, Arm’s mega IPO could set the agenda for years

    Upbeat results are boosting shares of convenience-store operator Casey’s General Stores
    CASY,
    -1.02%
    .

    Packaging giant WestRock
    WRK,
    -1.48%

    and rival Smurfit Kappa
    SK3,
    -8.87%

    have announced a stock and cash tie up. WestRock shares are up 8% in premarket.

    Read: U.S. budget deficit will double this year to $2 trillion, excluding student loans

    Best of the web

    No better than gambling? Amateur investors are piling into 24-hour options.

    Demand for oil, coal, gas to peak this decade, IEA chief says

    U.S. takes on tech giant Google in landmark case.

    The chart

    Bank of America’s global fund manager survey for September sees investors still bearish, but no longer on the extreme side. Here’s the chart:

    Read: Fund managers just made their biggest shift ever into U.S. stocks — and out of emerging markets

    The tickers

    These were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:

    Ticker

    Security name

    TSLA,
    +10.09%
    Tesla

    AMC,
    +2.23%
    AMC Entertainment

    CGC,
    +81.37%
    Canopy Growth

    NVDA,
    -0.86%
    Nvidia

    GME,
    -3.90%
    GameStop

    AAPL,
    +0.66%
    Apple

    ACB,
    +72.17%
    Aurora Cannabis

    NIO,
    +2.89%
    Nio

    MULN,
    +5.77%
    Mullen Automotive

    AMZN,
    +3.52%
    Amazon

    Random reads

    “Worst investment ever.” Brady Bunch fan buys original house for cut-price $3.2 million.

    And the house from the “Halloween” slasher films just sold for $1.8 million.

    China may ban clothes that hurt people’s feelings.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch financial columnist James Rogers and economist Stephanie Kelton.

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  • How one big stock-market investor is positioning for a decade of inflation

    How one big stock-market investor is positioning for a decade of inflation

    With the threat of inflation back at the forefront for many investors, there’s one large stock-market investor positioning for it to be a decade-long phenomenon. In a note posted to the firm’s website, Chief Investment Officer William Smead of Phoenix-based Smead Capital Management, which oversees $5.83 billion in assets, said “we are loaded with inflation beneficiary stocks like oil and gas stocks and useful real estate.” The firm likes home builder D.R. Horton DHI; Simon Property Group SPG, a real estate investment trust…

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  • Airbnb, Blackstone to join S&P 500, while Deere will replace Walgreens in S&P 100

    Airbnb, Blackstone to join S&P 500, while Deere will replace Walgreens in S&P 100

    Shares of investment giant Blackstone Inc. and vacation-home rental platform Airbnb Inc. rallied after hours on Friday after both won the nod to join the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    later this month.

    The announcement, from S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that the change would take hold before the start of trading on Monday, Sept. 18. The move, among others announced Friday, will “ensure each index is more representative of its market-capitalization range,” according to a release.

    Airbnb
    ABNB,
    +0.87%

    currently has a market value of $83.98 billion, and its shares are up 64.7% so far this year. Blackstone
    BX,
    -1.77%
    ,
    currently worth $129.29 billion, has seen its stock rise 43.6% year-to-date.

    Shares of Airbnb and Blackstone were up 5.7% and 4.8%, respectively, after hours on Friday.

    Blackstone and Airbnb will replace Lincoln National Corp.
    LNC,
    +2.14%

    and Newell Brands Inc.
    NWL,
    +1.23%

    in the index, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. In the process, Lincoln and Newell will join the S&P SmallCap 600.

    Blackstone in July said it had reached $1 trillion in assets under management, aided by a growth trajectory that it said had outpaced its private equity rivals.

    “We’ve established an unparalleled global platform of leading business lines, offering over 70 distinct investment strategies,” Chief Executive Stephen Schwarzman told analysts. “We believe our clients view us as the gold standard in alternative asset management.”

    Meanwhile, Airbnb last month said that travelers were seeking longer stays and bigger properties in pricier areas, as the rebound in travel endures despite a tidal wave of inflation last year. The company’s second-quarter results and third-quarter sales forecast topped Wall Street’s estimates.

    Meanwhile, S&P 500 member Deere & Co.
    DE,
    +1.94%

    will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.
    WBA,
    -7.43%

    in the S&P 100, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday. That change also takes hold on Sept. 18. S&P Dow Jones Indices said Walgreens “is no longer representative of the megacap market space” but will stay in the S&P 500.

    Shares of Deere fell 0.2% after hours. Walgreens stock was up 0.4%.

    Don’t miss: Walgreens CEO Roz Brewer steps down with stock at decade-and-a-half low

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  • Private equity, hedge funds sue SEC over new disclosure rules

    Private equity, hedge funds sue SEC over new disclosure rules

    A consortium of groups representing the private funds industry filed a lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission Friday in an attempt to block new rules that would require private equity and hedge funds to disclose quarterly performance, fees and expenses.

    The rules, adopted last week, would also ban so-called side letters, or agreements between a fund and specific investors that give them preferential treatment, unless those arrangements are made available to all investors.

    Read more: SEC votes to require private equity and hedge funds to disclose performance and fees

    “The SEC has overstepped its statutory authority and core legislative mandate, leaving us no choice but to litigate,” said Bryan Corbett, president and CEO of the Managed Funds Association, one of the litigants in the suit.

    “The Private Fund Adviser rule will harm investors, fund managers, and markets by increasing costs, undermining competition, and reducing investment opportunities for pensions, foundations, and endowments,” he added.

    The MFA was joined by several other industry groups in filing the lawsuit, including  the National Association of Private Fund Managers, National Venture Capital Association, American Investment Council,  Alternative Investment Management Association and the Loan Syndications & Trading Association.

    An SEC spokesperson told MarketWatch that “the Commission undertakes rulemaking consistent with its authorities and laws governing the administrative process, and we will vigorously defend the challenged rule in court.”

    SEC Chair Gary Gensler argued in recent speeches and statements that the new rules are necessary to protect investors, including the pension funds and endowments that have increasingly turned to alternative investments in recent years to boost returns.

    He said in a May speech that private funds are of growing importance to the U.S. economy, noting that advisers report that they now manage $25 trillion in assets — up from $1 trillion in 1998 — surpassing the size of the U.S. banking sector.

    “The private fund industry plays an important role in each sector of the capital markets,” he said.

    “It also plays an important role for investors, such as retirement funds and endowments,” he added. “Standing behind those entities are a diverse array of teachers, firefighters, municipal workers, students, and professors.”

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  • Labor Day is just a ‘milestone’ in the marathon to get workers back to the office

    Labor Day is just a ‘milestone’ in the marathon to get workers back to the office

    The U.S. Labor Day holiday will mark another milestone in the marathon to bring workers back to the office, but it won’t be a quick fix for landlords, according to Thomas LaSalvia, head of commercial real estate economics at Moody’s Analytics.

    Employers from Facebook parent Meta
    META,
    +0.27%

    to Goldman Sachs
    GS,
    -0.26%

    recently laid out mandates for staff to return to the office more frequently, starting this fall, including the big one — the federal government.

    “A lot of companies are saying that after Labor Day, ‘We expect more out of you,” LaSalvia said, referring to days in the office. Still, office attendance, he argues, likely only stages a fuller comeback if a job or promotion is on the line.

    Amazon.com Inc.’s
    AMZN,
    +2.18%

    Chief Executive Andy Jassy has been trying to drive home the point by warning staff to return at least three days a week, or face the consequences.

    That could prove difficult, with Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August expected to show U.S. unemployment at a scant 3.5%, near the lowest levels since the late 1960s, even if hiring has been slowing. The labor market, so far, appears unfazed by the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate reaching a 22-year high.

    It has been a different story for landlords facing a roughly 19% vacancy rate nationally and piles of debt coming due, especially for owners of older Class B and C office buildings with a bleak outlook or properties in cities with wobbling business centers.

    See: San Francisco’s office market erases all gains since 2017 as prices sag nationally

    As with shopping malls, LaSalvia said it’s largely a problem of oversupply, with many office properties at risk of becoming obsolete as tenants flock to better buildings and locations staging a rebirth. The trend can be traced in leasing data since 2021, with Class A properties in central business districts (blue line) showing a big advantage over less desirable buildings in the heart of cities (orange line).

    Return to office isn’t going to save the entire office property market


    Moody’s Analytics

    “Little by little, we are finding the office isn’t dead,” LaSalvia said, but he also sees more promise in neighborhoods with a new purpose, those catering to hybrid work and communities that bring people together.

    Another way to look at the trend is through rents. Manhattan’s Penn Station submarket, with its estimated $13 billion overhaul and neighboring Hudson Yards development, has seen asking rents jump 32% to $74.87 a square foot in the second quarter since the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Moody’s Analytics. That compares with a 2% bump in asking rents in downtown New York City to $61.39 a square foot for the same period.

    The push for a return to the office also doesn’t mean a repeat of prepandemic ways. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that part-time remote work in the U.S. has stabilized around 20%-25%, in a late August report, but that’s still up from 2.6% before the 2020 lockdowns.

    Furthermore, the persistence of remote work will likely add another 171 million square feet of vacant U.S. office space through 2029, a period that also will see tenants’ long-term leases expire and many companies opting for less space. The additional vacancies would roughly translate to 57% of Los Angeles roughly 300 million square feet of office space sitting empty.

    “The fundamental reason why we had offices in the first place have not completely disintegrated,” LaSalvia said. “But for some of those Class B and C offices, the writing was on the wall before the pandemic.”

    U.S. stocks were mixed Thursday, but headed for losses in a tough August for stocks, with the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    off about 1.5% for the month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    2.1% lower and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    down 2% in August, according to FactSet.

    Related: Some employers mandate etiquette classes as returning office workers walk barefoot, burp loudly and microwave fish

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  • ETF that tracks Jim Cramer’s stock picks to close

    ETF that tracks Jim Cramer’s stock picks to close

    An exchange-traded fund set up to buy stocks recommended by CNBC personality Jim Cramer will be closed and liquidated, its provider said Monday.

    Shares of the Long Cramer Tracker ETF
    LJIM
    will see their last day of trading on Cboe on Sept. 11, which will also be the last day the fund will accept creation units from authorized participants, Tuttle Capital Management said in a news release Monday afternoon.

    “We started LJIM in order to facilitate a conversation with Jim Cramer around his stock picks as the other side to the Short Cramer ETF
    SJIM,
    ” said Matthew Tuttle, the fund’s adviser, in the news release.

    “Unfortunately, Mr. Cramer and CNBC have been unwilling to engage in dialogue and instead have chosen to ignore the funds, therefore there is no reason to keep the long side going,” Tuttle said. “Going forward we will just focus on the short side.”

    CNBC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The Inverse Cramer ETF aims to achieve the inverse of Cramer’s recommendations by going short anything he recommends buying and going long anything he doesn’t like. The ETFs were launched in March.

    The Long Cramer ETF opened at $24.96 on March 2, according to FactSet. It surged in June and early July, closing at a high of $29.42 on July 19. It’s retreated sharply in August, falling 12.1% so far this month, ending Monday at $25.79.

    See: ETF focused on Jim Cramer stock picks surged in June, kicks off July with slight gains

    The Inverse Cramer ETF, as would be expected, fell sharply in June and early July, but is up 13.1% in the month to date. The Long Cramer ETF is up 3.3% since its launch, while the Inverse Cramer ETF is down 3.9%.

    Cramer last October said on Twitter that he welcomed people betting against him, after Tuttle Capital Management filed papers for the ETFs with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    In response to the launch of the ETFs in March, a CNBC spokesperson said that it was Cramer’s mission “to encourage long-term investing and a balanced portfolio that includes index funds and individual stocks.”

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  • ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

    ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

    Barry DiRaimondo, chief of SteelWave, a West Coast property developer that in the past half-century has partnering with many of the biggest names in commercial real estate, is looking for diamonds in the rough, distressed office properties located in the American city that many have given up on.

    Others may be shunning San Francisco while it’s down on its luck, but DiRaimondo sees better days ahead, despite the city’s threat of a growing deficit, its fentanyl crisis, homelessness and a reluctant return of office workers to its financial core.

    “Not much is coming up right now,” DiRaimondo said of buying opportunities, while speaking from his office in the heart of San Francisco’s financial district. But he was eager to point out several nearby buildings that could be candidates to buy, at the right price.

    “I think over the next 12 to 18 months, you’re going to see a tsunami,” of distressed office properties, DiRaimondo said.

    Like in many big cities, a wave of office buildings bought at peak prices before the pandemic now have a pile of debt coming due, at much higher rates. But San Francisco’s financial core only recently has begun to show flickers of hope in its weak recovery post-COVID.

    “Whether it’s San Francisco, Oakland or anywhere here, and your debt is rolling, you’re having a conversation with your lender,” DiRaimondo said. “There’s either a restructuring going on or a foreclosure going on.”

    A number of high-profile property owners this year surrendered local properties to lenders, including Westfield’s namesake shopping center downtown and a string of well-known hotels, a blow to the city’s comeback efforts.

    Still, DiRaimondo expects the bulk of property ownership transfers in this boom-and-bust cycle to take place quietly, behind the scenes, often through a building’s debt changing hands. It’s a familiar playbook for veteran real-estate developers like SteelWave and its partners, especially when San Francisco office property values tumble and new loans remains expensive and hard to come by.

    “Office is a nasty word, right now. Especially tech office,” he said. “We are doing something that’s a bit different.”

    Booms, busts

    San Francisco’s history as a boom-and-bust town perhaps is best suited for real-estate developers able to take a bunch of lemons and make lemonade.

    That has been SteelWave’s signature move in the notoriously rough-and-tumble commercial real-estate industry, through its ups and downs. It has bought over $17.5 billion in properties and developments in the past five decades, first under the Legacy Partners Commercial brand before it was renamed in 2015.

    It has partnered with some of the biggest names in commercial real estate, including with Angelo Gordon & Co. in 2021 on two Silicon Valley office buildings, but also distressed debt titans that include Rialto Capital, and with Chenco, one of the largest Chinese-owned U.S. real-estate investment firms.

    Its stronghold is the Bay Area and DiRaimondo is now looking to raise a $500 million fund to buy distressed buildings, including in downtown San Francisco, a place major Wall Street lenders have been backing away from for months.

    “It’s hard to raise equity to buy this stuff right now,” he said, but argues his strategy, which includes expanding its reach to potential investors in the U.A.E., Israel and parts of Europe, will pan out.

    SteelWave’s model of buying a property includes a final tally of costs often three to four times the initial purchase price, due to extensive overhauls.

    “Typically, what we do is buy something, tear it apart, put it back together, lease it, sell it,” DiRaimondo said.

    It’s niche in the distressed world that’s already produced overhauls of buildings from Seattle to Colorado to Los Angeles, places the tech industry wants to lease.

    In the southern California town of Costa Mesa, that meant partnering with Invesco to turn an old newsroom and printing press for the Los Angeles Times into a creative work campus. An opinion piece in 2022 from the newspaper described the revamp as turning, “the glum newspaper architecture into something inviting.”

    Forget being a ‘rent bandit’

    “In New York, people rushed back and refilled the apartments, streets, and subways. Restaurants and stores flooded with customers again,” a team from Moody’s analytics wrote in a recent “tale of two cities” report. “San Francisco, on the other end, battled safety concerns, homelessness, and population exodus which existed before but only became more obvious with barren neighborhoods.”

    SteelWave thinks the old days of landlords raking in top-dollar commercial rents in San Francisco, while adding little back to office buildings, are a thing of the past.

    “You have to have owners who want to create cool work environments to attract people back into the city,” DiRaimondo said of downtown San Francisco’s long slog back from the brink.

    That means buying properties at low prices, but also risking putting money down for major improvements. He isn’t a distressed investors looking to become a “rent bandit,” he says, because the strategy will fail to get quality tenants.

    Like the Moody’s team, DiRaimondo thinks San Francisco eventually will bounce back, but he thinks not before reality hits older office properties.

    Take a “commodity” building downtown, often older and midblock with generic features, that previously might have been worth $750 to $800 a square foot. It now looks worth less than $300 a square foot, he said.

    The early stages of fire-sales have begun already, with the 22-story tower at 350 California, nearby to DiRaimondo’s office, reportedly fetching $200 to $225 a square foot.

    “San Francisco is not dead,” DiRaimondo said. “I think there are opportunities in San Francisco.”

    See: San Francisco’s office market erases all gains since 2017 as prices sag nationally

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  • ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

    ‘San Francisco is not dead’: Not everyone is shunning the city’s reeling office market

    Barry DiRaimondo, chief of SteelWave, a West Coast property developer that in the past half-century has partnering with many of the biggest names in commercial real estate, is looking for diamonds in the rough, distressed office properties located in the American city that many have given up on.

    Others may be shunning San Francisco while it’s down on its luck, but DiRaimondo sees better days ahead, despite the city’s threat of a growing deficit, its fentanyl crisis, homelessness and a reluctant return of office workers to its financial core.

    “Not much is coming up right now,” DiRaimondo said of buying opportunities, while speaking from his office in the heart of San Francisco’s financial district. But he was eager to point out several nearby buildings that could be candidates to buy, at the right price.

    “I think over the next 12 to 18 months, you’re going to see a tsunami,” of distressed office properties, DiRaimondo said.

    Like in many big cities, a wave of office buildings bought at peak prices before the pandemic now have a pile of debt coming due, at much higher rates. But San Francisco’s financial core only recently has begun to show flickers of hope in its weak recovery post-COVID.

    “Whether it’s San Francisco, Oakland or anywhere here, and your debt is rolling, you’re having a conversation with your lender,” DiRaimondo said. “There’s either a restructuring going on or a foreclosure going on.”

    A number of high-profile property owners this year surrendered local properties to lenders, including Westfield’s namesake shopping center downtown and a string of well-known hotels, a blow to the city’s comeback efforts.

    Still, DiRaimondo expects the bulk of property ownership transfers in this boom-and-bust cycle to take place quietly, behind the scenes, often through a building’s debt changing hands. It’s a familiar playbook for veteran real-estate developers like SteelWave and its partners, especially when San Francisco office property values tumble and new loans remains expensive and hard to come by.

    “Office is a nasty word, right now. Especially tech office,” he said. “We are doing something that’s a bit different.”

    Booms, busts

    San Francisco’s history as a boom-and-bust town perhaps is best suited for real-estate developers able to take a bunch of lemons and make lemonade.

    That has been SteelWave’s signature move in the notoriously rough-and-tumble commercial real-estate industry, through its ups and downs. It has bought over $17.5 billion in properties and developments in the past five decades, first under the Legacy Partners Commercial brand before it was renamed in 2015.

    It has partnered with some of the biggest names in commercial real estate, including with Angelo Gordon & Co. in 2021 on two Silicon Valley office buildings, but also distressed debt titans that include Rialto Capital, and with Chenco, one of the largest Chinese-owned U.S. real-estate investment firms.

    Its stronghold is the Bay Area and DiRaimondo is now looking to raise a $500 million fund to buy distressed buildings, including in downtown San Francisco, a place major Wall Street lenders have been backing away from for months.

    “It’s hard to raise equity to buy this stuff right now,” he said, but argues his strategy, which includes expanding its reach to potential investors in the U.A.E., Israel and parts of Europe, will pan out.

    SteelWave’s model of buying a property includes a final tally of costs often three to four times the initial purchase price, due to extensive overhauls.

    “Typically, what we do is buy something, tear it apart, put it back together, lease it, sell it,” DiRaimondo said.

    It’s niche in the distressed world that’s already produced overhauls of buildings from Seattle to Colorado to Los Angeles, places the tech industry wants to lease.

    In the southern California town of Costa Mesa, that meant partnering with Invesco to turn an old newsroom and printing press for the Los Angeles Times into a creative work campus. An opinion piece in 2022 from the newspaper described the revamp as turning, “the glum newspaper architecture into something inviting.”

    Forget being a ‘rent bandit’

    “In New York, people rushed back and refilled the apartments, streets, and subways. Restaurants and stores flooded with customers again,” a team from Moody’s analytics wrote in a recent “tale of two cities” report. “San Francisco, on the other end, battled safety concerns, homelessness, and population exodus which existed before but only became more obvious with barren neighborhoods.”

    SteelWave thinks the old days of landlords raking in top-dollar commercial rents in San Francisco, while adding little back to office buildings, are a thing of the past.

    “You have to have owners who want to create cool work environments to attract people back into the city,” DiRaimondo said of downtown San Francisco’s long slog back from the brink.

    That means buying properties at low prices, but also risking putting money down for major improvements. He isn’t a distressed investors looking to become a “rent bandit,” he says, because the strategy will fail to get quality tenants.

    Like the Moody’s team, DiRaimondo thinks San Francisco eventually will bounce back, but he thinks not before reality hits older office properties.

    Take a “commodity” building downtown, often older and midblock with generic features, that previously might have been worth $750 to $800 a square foot. It now looks worth less than $300 a square foot, he said.

    The early stages of fire-sales have begun already, with the 22-story tower at 350 California, nearby to DiRaimondo’s office, reportedly fetching $200 to $225 a square foot.

    “San Francisco is not dead,” DiRaimondo said. “I think there are opportunities in San Francisco.”

    See: San Francisco’s office market erases all gains since 2017 as prices sag nationally

    Source link

  • SoftBank looking to buy remaining 25% stake in Arm from its Vision Fund: report

    SoftBank looking to buy remaining 25% stake in Arm from its Vision Fund: report

    SoftBank Group Corp. is reportedly in discussions to purchase the 25% stake in chip designer Arm Ltd. that is held by its Vision Fund 1, ahead of a highly anticipated IPO.

    Reuters reported Sunday that Japan’s SoftBank
    9984,
    +0.37%

    — which owns 75% of Arm — is negotiating a deal with VF1, the $100 billion investment fund it created in 2017, and noted that a deal could give VF1 investors a big boost after years of meager returns. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co. are among VF1’s largest investors.

    SoftBank is planning to launch a long-awaited initial public offering for British chip designer Arm as soon as September. That will likely be the biggest IPO of the year on Wall Street, aiming to raise $8 billion to $10 billion at a valuation around $60 billion to $70 billion.

    A number of large tech companies, including Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -0.11%
    ,
    Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    +0.61%

    and Nvidia Inc.
    NVDA,
    -3.62%
    ,
    are reportedly in the mix to be anchor investors in Arm’s IPO.

    Last week, SoftBank reported its tech-heavy Vision Funds turned a quarterly profit for the first time in 18 months

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  • You can invest in market winners and still lose big. Here’s how to avoid the hit.

    You can invest in market winners and still lose big. Here’s how to avoid the hit.

    Investors should think twice before picking an actively managed mutual fund according to its style category. By “style category,” I’m referring to the widely used method of grouping mutual funds according to the market-cap of the stocks they invest in and where those stocks stand on the spectrum of growth-to-value.

    This matrix traces to groundbreaking research in 1992 by University of Chicago professor Eugene Fama and Dartmouth College professor Ken French, and has since been popularized by investment researcher Morningstar in the form of its well-known style box.

    In urging you to think twice before picking a fund based on this matrix, I’m not questioning the existence of important distinctions between the various styles. Fama and French’s research convincingly showed that there are systematic differences between them. My point is that there also are huge differences within each style as well. You can pick a style that outperforms all others on Wall Street and still lose a lot of money, just as you can pick the worst-performing style and turn a huge profit.

    This points to the two types of risk you face when picking an actively managed fund. You have the risk associated with the fund’s style (category risk) and you also have the risk associated with the particular stocks that the fund’s manager selects (so-called idiosyncratic risk). Idiosyncratic risk often overwhelms category risk, especially over shorter periods.

    To illustrate, consider the midcap-growth style. As judged by the Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF
    VOT,
    this style produced a 28.8% loss in 2022. Yet, according to Morningstar Direct, the best-performing actively managed midcap-growth fund last year produced a gain of 39.5%, while the worst performer lost 67.0%.

    This best-versus-worst performance spread of over 100 percentage points is illustrated in the accompanying chart. Notice that the comparable spread was almost as wide for many of the other styles as well. Though I haven’t done the research to compare 2022’s spreads with those of other calendar years, I have no reason to expect that they on average were any lower.

    The only way to eliminate idiosyncratic risk when investing in particular styles is to invest in an index fund.

    The only way to eliminate idiosyncratic risk when investing in particular styles is to invest in an index fund benchmarked to the style in question. If you are enamored of a particular fund manager and willing to bet he will significantly outperform the category average, just know that you also incur the not-significant idiosyncratic risk that the fund will lag by a large amount.

    The bottom line? By investing in an actively managed fund in a style category, you will be incurring the risk not only of that category itself but also the not-insignificant idiosyncratic risk of that particular fund. Fasten your seatbelt if that’s the path you take.

    Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

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  • State and local pensions look healthier — even with asset market turbulence

    State and local pensions look healthier — even with asset market turbulence

    My colleagues JP Aubry and Yimeng Yin just released an update on state and local pension plans. Their analysis compared 2023 to 2019 – the year before all the craziness began. Think of the unusual events that have occurred in the last few years: 1) the onset of COVID; 2) the subsequent COVID stimulus; 3) declining interest rates; 4) rising inflation; and then 5) rising interest rates. 

    Despite the volatility of asset values over this period, the 2023 funded status of state and local pension plans is about 78%, which is 5 percentage points higher than in 2019 (see Figure 1). Of course, the numbers for 2023 are estimates based on plan-by-plan projections, but these projections have an excellent track record.   

    While the aggregate funded ratio provides a useful measure of the public pension landscape at large, it also can obscure variations in funding at the plan level. Figure 2 separates the plans into thirds based on their current actuarial funded status. The average 2023 funded ratio for each group was 57.6% for the bottom third, 79.5% for the middle third, and 91.1% for the top third.

    The major reason for the improvement in plans’ funded status is that, despite the turbulence in the economy, total annualized returns, which include interest and dividends, have risen noticeably for almost all major asset class indexes over the 2019-2023 period (see Figure 3). The exception over this short and volatile period is fixed-income assets, which have declined in value.

    The effect of fixed income’s decline on overall portfolio performance has been modest because, since 2019, fixed income has averaged only about 20% of pension fund assets (see Figure 4).

    So, things are looking a little better for state and local pensions. Yes, the funded ratios are biased upward because plans use the assumed return on their portfolios – roughly 7% – to discount promised benefits. That said, trends are important, and the trend is good. 

    Moreover, annual state and local benefit payments as a share of the economy are approaching their peak for two reasons. First, most pension plans do not fully index retiree benefits for inflation, which lowers the real value of benefits over time. Second, the benefit reductions for new hires – introduced in the wake of the Great Recession – have started to have an impact.

    With liabilities in check and solid asset performance, maybe we can all relax a bit about the future of the state and local pension system.

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  • $1.8 million to retire? Are you kidding?

    $1.8 million to retire? Are you kidding?

    This time it’s in the latest Charles Schwab Retirement Survey. Among 1,000 people surveyed, the average respondent figured he or she needed to save $1.8 million to retire. (That figure is up from $1.7 million in the same survey a year earlier.)

    Touchingly, 86% also told Schwab they were either “somewhat” or “very” likely to achieve their goals.

    Er, no.

    If the numbers show anything, it’s that most people don’t understand math, don’t understand finance and are wildly out of touch with reality.

    Some simple calculations will show that these figures are all wrong.

    First, let’s start with the bad news. There is no way 86% of people should be “very” or “somewhat” confident that they are going to hit that $1.8 million target, or anything like it. Let alone that 37% think they are “very” likely to hit it.

    Median retirement-account balance at the moment? Try $27,000 and change, says 401(k) giant Vanguard.

    Even that’s overstating the picture. The Federal Reserve’s most recent triennial Survey of Consumer Finances says the median American household has $26,000 in total financial assets, including savings accounts, life insurance, 401(k) plan and the like. Among those aged 45 to 54, the figure is $37,000, and among those 55 to 64 it’s $47,000. How anyone thinks they are getting from there to $1.8 million by retirement age is a mystery. Magic carpets? Magic beans?

    Granted, the survey is from 2019, but the intervening pandemic period won’t have changed the picture that much — in either direction.

    It’s not clear from the survey whether those polled included the value of the equity in their homes. Throw that in, and the median household’s total net worth rises to $122,000. Among those aged 45 to 54 it rises to $169,000, and among those 55 to 64 to $213,000. COVID policies helped drive up average U.S. home prices by about 30%, so those figures will have risen since 2019.

    But again we are not nearing $1.8 million.

    Not even close.

    The good news, though, is that you don’t actually need this amount or anything like it to retire.

    Naturally if someone hasn’t figured life out by the time they retire, and they still think that buying yet more stuff is the route to happiness, no amount is going to be enough.

    How much we’d like and how much we need are very different things.

    A $1.8 million balance would buy a 65-year-old couple an immediate annuity paying a guaranteed lifetime income of $9,500 a month, or just over $110,000 a year.

    The average Social Security benefit on top of that for a retired couple is just under $3,000 a month, or $36,000 a year. So in total you’d be on about $146,000 a year. What are these people planning to do in retirement?

    Even with a 3% annual rise, to account for inflation risk, that annuity will pay out $83,000 a year, and that’s for a couple, not just for one person. The money continues until both of you have gone.

    How much do we really need? Well, while acknowledging that each person and each person’s situation is going to be different, let’s do some simple math.

    Actual seniors are living on median annual incomes of around $45,000 to $50,000, says the Federal Reserve. And most of them say they are either reasonably satisfied with retirement or actually happy. So, at least, they tell Gallup and the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

    Meanwhile, a new survey from Schroders finds that the average person thinks a comfortable retirement can be had on around $5,000 a month, or $60,000 a year.

    The average Social Security benefit for a retired couple is $36,000 a year. To bring that income up to $50,000 you’d need an annuity paying $14,000 a year.

    Current cost in the annuities market: $225,000.

    To bring that up to $60,000 the annuity would cost $385,000.

    For $350,000 you can get an income of $18,000 with a 3% annual increase to deal with inflation.

    For $800,000 you can double your Social Security income, bringing in another $36,000 a year — with a 3% annual increase to deal with inflation.

    The cost of housing is a major component for retirees. No, someone doesn’t have to move to Iowa to be able to retire in comfort. But they can move the dial by cashing in their home in an expensive neighborhood — especially the kind of location they may have moved to for a high-paying job or the best schools — and moving somewhere cheaper. Away from coastal California or the “Acela” corridor in the Northeast, a lot of U.S. homes are really cheap.

    Retirement savings generally are grossly inadequate, and many people face genuine hardship in their senior years. And, of course, pretty much everyone could use more money. On the other hand, you can retire in comfort with a lot less than $1.8 million.

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  • You just won the Mega Millions jackpot — what should you do next?

    You just won the Mega Millions jackpot — what should you do next?

    Robert Pagliarini, author of “The Sudden Wealth Solution,” has been guiding lottery winners for decades. And he has seen plenty of people run through their winnings faster than you can say “jackpot!” Or, friends and family (and certainly office lottery pool players) can see their winnings tied up in legal battles for years, as the parties argue over who gets how much. About 70% of lottery winners lose or spend all the money in five years or less, after all. 

    “Money — especially when you’re talking about this level of money — absolutely upends people’s lives,” Pagliarini, the president of Pacifica Wealth Advisors, told MarketWatch. “You should be excited, but you should also be prepared, for sure.” 

    These are his five tips for what to do if you win the lottery or get another windfall.

    Document that the winning ticket is YOURS

    Sign your name on the winning ticket, take a picture of yourself holding the winning ticket — in fact, take a video of yourself holding the signed, winning ticket, for good measure. 

    “The first step is really all about securing the ticket … because whoever has it is the owner,” says Pagliarini. “There’s no record of you having purchased that ticket with those numbers. So having that ticket is everything.” 

    Related: Hoping to win Mega Millions? This woman hit a $112 million Mega Millions jackpot.

    You have to document that this ticket is yours, which is why Pagliarini says legal experts recommend signing it. “I would absolutely sign it myself,” he adds. 

    And then put that ticket in a safe place, like a home safe or lockbox.

    Don’t tell anyone yet!

    You may want to sing the good news from the rooftops that your financial troubles are over. Problem is, everyone else’s troubles aren’t — and Pagliarini warns that, for your own personal safety and peace of mind, it’s better not to let the world know you’ve just become a billionaire overnight — if you can help it. Unfortunately, most states make you disclose that you’ve won.

    “We’re used to seeing people with the big check on TV, which looks pretty cool — but now everybody in the entire world knows that you’re worth $1 billion. And that’s not really the kind of publicity that you want,” says Pagliarini. “You’re going to be hit up for lots of money requests as people come out of the woodwork. And that adds such a huge amount of stress when you’re in a situation that is already stressful.” 

    You generally have 180 days to collect the winnings, and you’re going to have to make some big, life-changing decisions during that time. Staying anonymous, if you can, will give you the space to make those decisions with a clear head. 

    Unfortunately, as noted, most states compel lottery winners to come forward publicly. If you have to reveal yourself and do press interviews, protect your personal information. Some past Powerball winners didn’t answer questions about any meaningful or personal significance associated with the winning numbers that they played, for example, or they refused to share details about their children. One couple simply moved out of their house and refused to speak with the media at all while they settled their affairs.

    “My rule is basically, you tell one family member, and then you immediately try to get professional help,” Pagliarini adds. Which leads us to…. 

    Get a lawyer and a financial adviser

    Bring in the professional help as soon as you can. An attorney can help you decide the best time to claim your lottery prize, and offer more advice on keeping your ticket safe. They can also help navigate your rights and protect your best interests with regards to how much you need to present yourself publicly. And they can also help you manage your safety. 

    Meanwhile, a financial adviser can assess your financial situation and help you decide whether it makes sense to take a lump sum of cash, or to collect your winnings over annual payments. A financial adviser can also help you manage your money so that you can check things off your bucket list without overspending.

    “You know you’ve won, and then typically you have about 180 days to collect the winnings,” says Pagliarini. “So you’ve got to do some serious planning.” You need all the help you can get.  

    Do you take the lump-sum payment or the annuity payment?

    Pagliarini considers staying anonymous as the first big decision a lottery winner makes. The second most important question, however, is how they collect their winnings. Do you want to take a lump sum, or do you want to take the annuity (aka, a payout over time)?

    “This is really the biggest financial decision you’ll ever make in your entire life,” he says. (Granted, it’s one that most of us will never have to make, since the odds of winning the lottery, let alone a jackpot of this size, are infinitesimal.)  

    He notes that most people take the lump-sum payment, and in some circumstances this can be a better decision. But keep in mind that if you win a $1 billion Powerball jackpot, for example, you are not getting $1 billion.

    “They send you about 60-ish percent of whatever the lump sum is,” Pagliarini notes. So for a $1 billion prize, for example, “you would get around $600 million instead of $1 billion,” he said. And after state taxes, depending on where you live, and federal taxes, that jackpot may be closer to $300 million in the end. Whereas, the annuity is given as 30 payments over 29 years, which will come closer to hitting the advertised $1 billion jackpot than lump-sum takers would get. So being patient can pay off in the long run, especially with a bigger prize like this.

    As far as taxes are concerned, Pagliarini still leans toward annuity — especially for a smaller jackpot, like if it was $1 million. That’s because you would get a lump-sum payment of about $600,000, which would put you in the highest federal and state income tax bracket (for single filers anyway) that year — versus taking an extra $30,000 a year for 30 years. “That annuity payment is probably not going to catapult you into the highest tax bracket,” he says. But for a $1 billion-plus jackpot like this, you’re going to be in the highest tax bracket whichever payout you choose, he says.

    But there’s another reason to consider going the annuity route, Pagliarini says — it can save you from yourself. 

    “The biggest advantage of the lump-sum payout is that you get most of the money up front, and then you can do whatever you want with it,” he says, such as pay off debt, invest it, buy a house, etc. “But that actually happens to be the biggest disadvantage of the lump sum,” he continues. And that’s because, if you overspend your winnings and run out of cash with your lump sum, then you are out of luck. But the annuity payments are almost like a do-over each year, he says, because you can learn from your mistakes and spend the next annual windfall more wisely. “I’ve advised most people honestly to take the annuity,” he says. “It just allows you to really make mistakes, but have them not be a total derailment.” 

    If you still can’t make up your mind, he also has a free online quiz to help you decide whether you should take a lump sum or an annuity payment

    Keep it simple when deciding where to put your new money.

    So you’ve secured your ticket, tried to keep it quiet, hired some professional help, and decided how you are going to collect your winnings. Then what do you do with all of this cash? 

    Every financial situation is different, of course, which is where a financial adviser can help you sort out the nuances to make this lottery win a real dream come true for you. But in general, Pagliarini recommends keeping things simple — even considering that this $1 billion jackpot (even whittled down after taxes) would allow you to do basically whatever you wanted to do. 

    “If I were meeting with you, we would sit down and make some serious decisions, and prioritize what you want to do,” he says, “such as paying off debt, and discussing what is on your wish list. Do you want to buy a new house or a second house, or buy your family houses?” He suggests pricing out your wish list together with your adviser to see whether you could afford to do everything you want.

    But you still want money left over to live on. “We want to make sure the money left over is generating enough income so that they could survive on that for as long as they wanted — and particularly in this case, I’m sure generations would be able to survive on this amount of money,” he says. “I would invest in index funds. I wouldn’t get esoteric with limited partnerships and venture capital. Just go for a diversified portfolio, because as soon as you start deviating from ‘simple’ you can really increase your chances of just losing it all.” 

    He notes that because lottery winnings don’t feel “earned,” the prize may not feel like “real” money — which is one of the reasons so many lottery winners don’t manage their newfound wealth well. Again, about 70% of lottery winners lose or spend all that money in five years or less. “If the money doesn’t feel earned or real, you’re going to make decisions with that money that are probably not going to be in your best interest,” he adds. “You’re giving it away more freely, spending more freely, or freely investing in things a lot riskier than you would have done if you had to sweat and earn that money.” 

    So keep it simple. “Don’t think just because you have x-millions of dollars now that you really have to get ‘sophisticated,’” he adds.

    And some bonus advice for office pools

    This is more of an extra, hindsight tip for before you and your co-workers start throwing in a buck apiece for a long-shot bid at a jackpot like this. Pagliarini warns that office pools can get “tricky,” so it’s good to sign a contract setting some ground rules before you all pool together. 

    “There’s been a lot of litigation around office pools, because maybe somebody forgets to play one week, and that’s the week everyone wins. Or someone thought they played this week, but on this particular week they didn’t,” he says. “So loosey-goosey situations can end up in court to battle it out.”

    A much simpler solution to avoid this is to have an office pool contract that spells out who is in this pool, how much they are contributing, and it also determines in advance whether the group will take the lump-sum payment or the annuity payment. 

    “Because the last thing that you want is to win $1 billion or $100 million dollars, and then to be tied up in court for four years,” says Pagliarini. “That’s no fun.”

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  • Banc of California is expected to keep leading regional banks higher as PacWest deal ignites sector

    Banc of California is expected to keep leading regional banks higher as PacWest deal ignites sector

    Banc of California Inc.’s proposed agreement to acquire PacWest Bancorp. helped send regional-bank stocks considerably higher on Wednesday. But even after a two-day increase of 12% for its shares, the acquiring bank remains the favorite name among analysts covering regional players in the U.S.

    The merger agreement was announced after the market close on Tuesday, but the rumor mill had already sent Banc of California’s
    BANC,
    +0.62%

    stock up by 11% that day. Then on Wednesday, shares of PacWest Bancorp
    PACW,
    +26.92%

    shot up 27% to $9.76, which was above the estimated takeout value of $9.60 a share when the deal was announced. The merger deal, if approved by both banks’ shareholders, will also include a $400 million investment from Warburg Pincus LLC and Centerbridge Partners L.P.

    A screen of regional banks by rating and stock-price target is below.

    Deal coverage:

    With PacWest closing above the initial per-share deal valuation, it is fair to wonder whether or not its shareholders will vote to approve the agreement. In a note to clients on Wednesday, Wedbush analyst David Chiaverini called Banc of California’s offer “fair, but not overwhelmingly attractive,” and wrote that PacWest was “a likely seller before the mini banking crisis occurred in March.”

    While Chiaverini went on to predict the deal’s approval by PacWest’s shareholders, he added that he “wouldn’t be surprised if there were some dissent among a minority of shareholders [which could] possibly open the door to the potential emergence of a third-party bid.”

    More broadly, Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote to clients on Wednesday that the merger deal, along with increasing involvement of private-equity firms in lending businesses, the expected enhancement of regulatory capital requirements for banks and other factors could lead to more consolidation among smaller banks.

    He went on to write that we might be entering a period for the banking industry similar to the 1990s, “when rules were being changed and acquisitions were rampant,” which “created new investment opportunities.”

    The SPDR S&P Regional Banking exchange-traded fund
    KRE,
    +4.74%

    rose 5% on Wednesday but was still down 17% for 2023, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    +0.02%

    was up 19%, both excluding dividends.

    KRE holds 139 stocks, with 98 covered by at least five analysts working for brokerage firms polled by FactSet. Out of those 98 banks, 45 have majority “buy” ratings among the analysts. Among those 45, here are the 10 with the most upside potential over the next 12 months, implied by consensus price targets:

    Bank

    Ticker

    City

    Total assets ($mil)

    July 26 price change

    Share buy ratings

    July 26 closing price

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Banc of California Inc.

    BANC,
    +0.62%
    Santa Ana, Calif.

    $9,370

    1%

    71%

    $14.71

    $18.58

    26%

    Enterprise Financial Services Corp.

    EFSC,
    +1.83%
    Clayton, Mo.

    $13,871

    2%

    80%

    $41.75

    $49.25

    18%

    First Merchants Corp.

    FRME,
    +3.52%
    Muncie, Ind.

    $17,968

    4%

    100%

    $32.38

    $37.33

    15%

    Amerant Bancorp Inc. Class A

    AMTB,
    +3.47%
    Coral Gables, Fla.

    $9,520

    3%

    60%

    $20.26

    $23.30

    15%

    Old Second Bancorp Inc.

    OSBC,
    +3.39%
    Aurora, Ill.

    $5,884

    3%

    100%

    $16.15

    $18.50

    15%

    F.N.B. Corp.

    FNB,
    +2.87%
    Pittsburgh

    $44,778

    3%

    75%

    $12.91

    $14.50

    12%

    Columbia Banking System Inc.

    COLB,
    +3.95%
    Tacoma, Wash.

    $53,592

    4%

    55%

    $22.63

    $25.32

    12%

    Wintrust Financial Corp.

    WTFC,
    +3.43%
    Rosemont, Ill.

    $54,286

    3%

    92%

    $86.05

    $95.33

    11%

    Synovus Financial Corp.

    SNV,
    +6.01%
    Columbus, Ga.

    $60,656

    6%

    75%

    $34.06

    $37.73

    11%

    Home BancShares Inc.

    HOMB,
    +4.56%
    Conway, Ark.

    $22,126

    5%

    57%

    $24.09

    $26.67

    11%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each bank.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Any stock screen can only be a starting point when considering whether or not to invest. If you see any stocks of interest here, you should do your own research to form your own opinion.

    Don’t miss: How you can profit in the stock market from an incredible financial-services trend over the next 20 years

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